Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Warning: Inflation Data Just Out! 🥳 + Stock Market News 28 June 2024

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Felix Prehn - Warning: Inflation Data Just Out! 🥳 + Stock Market News 28 June 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Felix here.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Inflation data just out, the most important piece of data for the Fed and rate cuts and therefore for the markets.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through that, but we can't really start off today by ignoring the presidential debate, which I had the pleasure of watching while doing a workout today.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: It's actually quite a nice way to extend your workout and it was pretty much a disaster for Biden, wasn't it?
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: If any of you watched that, let me know in the chat.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: If you haven't watched that, then I have no political skin in this game.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: I'm not an American, I don't really particularly care.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: But if you didn't watch today, let me play you a very, very short clip, which is actually, for once, not an unfair political ad which the Trump campaign just popped out here.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: Folks, how are you Making sure that we're able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I've been able to do with the COVID excuse me with dealing with everything we have.
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: Look, if we finally beat medicare, we find them.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: They're trying to provide housing for black americans.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: The impact of on the, the choice, the idea that they're going to.
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: I'm not proposing that everybody they pay, the millionaires pay 1%, 1%.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: So no one after I've not raised the cost of Social Security for anybody.
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: I got my handicap when I was vice president down to a six, down to a six, and it wants to get rid of the ability of Medicare for the ability for us to be able to negotiate drug prices with the big pharma companies.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: What I'm going to do is fix the tax system.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: For example, we have 1,000 trillionaires in America.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: I mean billionaires in America.
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: No one was hurt, no one Israeli was accidentally killed and it stopped.
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: And I'm going to continue to move until we get the total ban on the total initiative relative to what we're going to do with more border patrol and more asylum officers.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, there you are, the presidential debate.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Greatest country in the world.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: That's one of those.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Two guys are going to be running it.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Well, actually, probably not.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: It seems that there is a mop on the way to replace biden, which might cause some more market volatility which we can profit from.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, it's really a weird one.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: I think he was set up.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: I I honestly think this is a setup.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: There is no way in hell that these guys didn't know this wasn't going to happen.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: You prepare for these debates, they script out all the answers, they practice and practice and practice.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: They knew he was going to be a total flop.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: They probably just needed to shame him in front of the world, which is a shame for the old guy, but I honestly feel bad for him at this point.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: I really do Not a lot of love lost for me with with politicians, but, um, they're trying, though.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Look at this amount of handouts the us government is giving out, and you can see the line going up very, very strongly there, even though I can't find a decent color pen.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Um, that's what happens before elections.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: This is the amount of income, transfers, payments, uh, social benefits to basically people here.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's Pedro.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: I'm glad you found it amusing Newsom could win.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: He seems to be smiling quite, quite bigly, to borrow from the orange one, a new word that I learned.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, at this point Trump just has to like not say anything horrendous and he'll surely win this by a landslide.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: So they must realize that and they must be wanting to replace them.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: But let's look at a few other things that actually matter today to us.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: A way to make money, and that is inflation data just out.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: So we just got out PCE data, and well, what can you see?
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: It's sort of down right Downish, which is positive.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: And there is also a little thing called super core, pce.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: This strips out not just food and energy, but pretty much everything else you need in life.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: And why do I show you this?
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Because it's a really colorful chart.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: It would make a nice piece of art, actually, wouldn't it?
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: It'd be a very nice piece of art.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'll paint one of those, and I call it super cool.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: This is the data.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: What's the one thing that's going up?
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: What's that red bar there?
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: That's healthcare.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: You know, the one thing that those politicians this morning were telling you was getting cheaper and cheaper.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: It's not Basically all inflation in the US on the super core level is healthcare, which is not great for people who are not well, but it's kind of like, okay, the problem is sort of contained here, right?
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: So I would say we've got pretty good inflation data out today and therefore the markets should be pretty happy about that.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Put a monkey in charge of Winston.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think Winston would do a tremendous job.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Monkey in charge of Winston, I mean I think Winston would do a tremendous job and Newsom was kind of well.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: It wasn't just him, it was also predecessors, obviously.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: But yeah, california, that sixth richest country in the world, if it were a country, complete freaking basket case, right?
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: So, king, you lost all your money so you can't trade for more.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: King, king, king, king, king.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: I told you about risk management, my friend.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: It's all about risk management, stop losses and so on.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: You'll be all right.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Sometimes you have to learn a lesson like that the hard way and you bounce back and you'll do it with proper time, proper risk management this time, yeah, you can't just randomly buy stuff.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: You have to have a scripted path through your trades, otherwise you would just be bouncing around from loser to loser.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Right, king, you join me on Tuesday.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: You know what I'm going to say.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Right, this was our consistency the last two years under 26, 105% return on capital employed.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: And this is this month.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Right, we trade with a 30K teaching portfolio $30,000.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: We've added $7,000 to that and I do that in a couple hours a week.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: I haven't done a single trade this week, by the way, because of inflation data out.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: But, yeah, this is going to be a big topic, obviously going into November.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: We'll be covering that some more where it matters to us.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: But let's look at a couple of other things that tumble today.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: Like the president, nike called this year wait for it a transition year.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: That's like the worst phrase.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: That's like what you can't be saying, god, people don't like anything.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Paypal is in a transition year Now.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Nike is too, down 12% today.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Apparently.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Adidas is having their lunch and dinner and breakfast and any snacks you might fancy in between.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Apple interesting news out of China their iPhones are selling a lot.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: News out of China their iPhones are selling a lot.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: 5 million or so Apple iPhones sold in China in May, but discounted.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: So what does that say to you?
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Good question, depends on how much everybody else discounted, but they do have a 18th of June, I think, is the big sales event right.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: So there we are.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Too many looters in the US.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: I think it's not actually that, it's just like bad inventory and just making rubbish and not being on trend.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Essentially, I'm sure the looting doesn't harm, but everybody else gets looted equally, probably, and they're doing all right.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: And I found this chart today.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: You know we talk a lot about there's no market breadth and all these market commentators always say, well, if only the top companies go up and the bottom ones don't, then there'll be a crash, everything will explode, it'll be the end of the world.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Sell Right, but what happened in 1995?
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: What happened in 1995?
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Breadth and markets moved in the opposite direction.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: 2000, same story.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: And people will point at 2000 and say that was the end of the world.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: No, but it actually says to you, why did 95 become a rally here?
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Beginning of the internet, really right, and the adoption of that.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: So innovation rallies that's really what I'm looking at here.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: This is an innovation rally, mean that only those people who are part of that innovation go up.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: By people, I mean stocks.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: So it's not really surprising, is it?
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Why, would you know, foot Locker go up?
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Because we got AI, until you got AI trainers or you know, lutus, you can nick with AI In 1995, I went to kindergarten.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Seriously, how old are you, kid?
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: And so far it's also not true, kelly.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Yes, nice to see you on the live chat.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Kelly, you're quite right.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: It's sort of the CEO's way of saying expect nothing, and it could be worse.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, as I said, we love passive income.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: So if you want to get out of the whole noise and everything else, come and join me when yeah, you guessed it Tuesday evening, 8 pm, eastern time, and I'll teach you how we do this.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: We're going to have some fun.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: I'll answer all your questions.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: If you want, I'll walk you through every trade I've done in the last couple of weeks as well.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: But there are some reasons to love the old guy and the orange guy and the debate about who's better at golf.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: That was bizarre, wasn't it?
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: That was really good.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: It was sort of like it was their egos took over.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: But who's better at golf?
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Like, I mean, you're meant to run the free world.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: We don't give a hoot whether you play golf well or not.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: But anyway, what happens after elections?
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: This here is the election, the funny thing you get up to in november, and what happens afterwards.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: The amount of money that flows into stocks goes up very simple, right from here goes up and up and up and longer trend up Pretty much every presidential year since 2004.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: So there is potentially a bit of a sideways wobble coming up for a couple of months as we try to figure out who gets elected.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Now I think if it's a Biden-Trump ticket, the market might quite like it, because the market has chosen Trump right, bill Ackman and everybody else.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Wall Street has chosen Trump very, very clearly because he's going to give him a better tax deal, and if they replace Biden, it could get interesting.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: We'll see.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: We'll see what happens there.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: They should have a golf tournament to decide the next US president.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: That they should have a golf tournament decide the next US president that would be more entertaining, probably, than today.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Do you think Nike is a good candidate for bounce trades, as Grumpy said?
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: We can have a look at that in a second.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: It's just when they come up with stuff that scares you, like transition year, then I don't know.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: You might want to be a little bit cautious and careful there.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: But yeah, we looked at the data.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Just personal income up a little, not a lot.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Personal spending, though, is down once again.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: The US consumer is running out of money, but the good news is that price inflation is at zero PCE at least, and core PCE at 0.1, which is as we expected, so that is good news.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at important pieces of data.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: You might want to write this down or screenshot it.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: And that is today.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: The resistance will sit at 5,500.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: So very hard to get over 5,500.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: And the support has moved up to, or down to, down to actually 5,400.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: How do I know that?
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: I've got inside knowledge.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: I have a trade vision subscription, which I don't pay for, but then I pay for developing it, building it.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: I think that's fair enough, isn't it?
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: 5,000, that little green noopsy there, that little green knob there, and then the red knob here is your support.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: That's market positioning, that's actual support, actual positions.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: So there are 12,000 call options at 5,500.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: And then similarish number, a little bit bigger, at 5,400.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: So don't expect any big jumps today.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: That's what I would say.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to make it over 5,500 today.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: If you look at the NASDAQ in all its glory, well, the trend is still.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: That was a very poorly drawn trend line, wasn't it?
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: It's still very much intact, up, top and bottom basically.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: So that's good news.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: So nothing really changing there and you can see the green background sort of still being greenish, a little bit wobbly, but still overall greenish, much as it is.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: On the S&P, which is our trend indicator, right, that thingy there in the background says to us, do we buy or sell?
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Essentially, you want to see what's actually going up today.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: We have a daily trend change that tells you which stocks have actually flipped literally overnight.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: I've got the green ones on here sorted by market cap.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: So these are the biggest ones Salesforce, mitsubishi, citigroup having good days, workday, 3m what else?
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: The Nasdaq, zscaler, a few others.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: What's having a really bad day yesterday?
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Mastercard, merck, micron yeah, we saw that.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: So we're seeing some changes here.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Cancora quite a big change.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: So very, very quick way to see what you might want to be trading.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: We're also adding over the weekend breakouts and breakdowns to it, which will be interesting.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: So those will be trends that are persisting past the one or two days.