Latest / Brian Thomas / Daniel Davis Deep Dive

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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: 828 at 55 KRC Detox Station, it being Tuesday. At
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: this time, it is that time, we get the Daniel
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Davis Deep Dive appointment. Listening here on the 55 KRC
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Morning Show with the retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis. Joining
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  Speaker 1: the show to talk about, well, of course, we're going
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: to go back to the war with Iran that's going on.
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  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis, it's great seeing you. I get the benefit
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: of that. And always a pleasure having you on the
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  Speaker 1: 55 KRC Morning Show, my friend.
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  Speaker 2: And it's always a pleasure to be here, Brian. Thanks
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  Speaker 2: for having me.
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  Speaker 1: I think it's illustrative and it helps to understand what's
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: going on in the Middle East. Notably, we all, we
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  Speaker 1: all know where the Strait of Hormuz is, right? We
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  Speaker 1: all know it's a choke point. We all know that
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  Speaker 1: this has been the problem with getting oil in and
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  Speaker 1: out of the region from Kuwait all the way through,
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  Speaker 1: but the Arabian Peninsula has another side and that's where
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  Speaker 1: we find the Red Sea and a similar choke point,
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  Speaker 1: which where do these guys come from? The Houthi rebels
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  Speaker 1: who apparently have taken over that choke point. So we've got,
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  Speaker 1: and they're aligned with the Iranians. It, Can you talk
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  Speaker 1: about this development? Obviously, it creates much more havoc in
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  Speaker 1: the region. It's the same thing going on on both
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  Speaker 1: sides of the Arabian Peninsula. This one's launched out of Yemen.
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  Speaker 1: They've taken control over some little island right in the
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  Speaker 1: middle of the choke point. So clearly, this is going
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  Speaker 1: to present problems. But it's been reported, and I read,
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  Speaker 1: I think it was a Wall Street Journal, the Houthis
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  Speaker 1: have 350,000, effectively, soldiers in their arsenal or in their army,
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  Speaker 1: along with drones and missiles and rockets and everything else.
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  Speaker 2: They do. And, you know, we've we've referred to them
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  Speaker 2: in the West, especially the main mainstream media as the
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  Speaker 2: Houthi rebels forever.
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  Speaker 3: And so you kind of get in your mind sort
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  Speaker 3: of like Luke Skywalker and the rebels, you know, band
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  Speaker 3: of men hiding in the forest or something. These guys
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  Speaker 3: are basically they they have been in control of 80
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  Speaker 3: percent of the population in Yemen since basically the Yemen
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  Speaker 3: civil war. And Saudi Arabia took the side of the
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  Speaker 3: 20 percent. And everybody decided in the West that we
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  Speaker 3: would recognize the 20% as the legal government of Yemen.
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  Speaker 3: So it kind of gives the impression that that's the
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  Speaker 3: bigger side, but it's not. The bigger side, numerically, is
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  Speaker 3: the Houthi side. It's called Ansar Allah. That's what they
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  Speaker 3: refer to themselves as. And they have been expanding their
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  Speaker 3: military capacity really since about, really since 2022 is when
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  Speaker 3: they started hitting the bigger capabilities to have their own
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  Speaker 3: missile factories, And they also did, they learned from Iran, too,
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  Speaker 3: and they built most of them underground, so it's nearly
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  Speaker 3: impossible for us to get to, drone factories, et cetera.
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  Speaker 3: But then they also have a large ground contingent, and
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  Speaker 3: for the first time ever, they're actually marching on territory
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  Speaker 3: so far just in Saudi-controlled Yemen portions of it. But
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  Speaker 3: there's a risk that they could move north into areas
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  Speaker 3: where they have a lot of co-religionist in their version
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  Speaker 3: of Shia Islam, in some of the southern parts of
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  Speaker 3: Saudi proper. So it's unclear how far they can go,
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  Speaker 3: because so far the Saudi group has just performed abysmally
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  Speaker 3: in the field.
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  Speaker 1: What is their goal? Boiling it down, I guess they're
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  Speaker 1: obviously aligned with the Iranians. The Iranians, I presume, in
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  Speaker 1: some way, shape, or form, assist... The Houthis, perhaps militarily
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  Speaker 1: or otherwise, maybe it goes the other direction. I understand
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  Speaker 1: that they are facilitating the movement of oil from the
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  Speaker 1: Iranians to keep Iranian government funded on some level, but
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  Speaker 1: what's the goal for the Houthis in this?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, the Houthis, their primary objective, they are generally aligned
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  Speaker 3: with Iran, but they're definitely not the subordinate allies. proxy
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  Speaker 3: force like they're also often referred to, they have their
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  Speaker 3: own issue. They have been fighting basically a war with
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  Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia since 2015, which went, I think, from 2021
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  Speaker 3: or 2022, went into a sort of a ceasefire kind
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  Speaker 3: of situation. But then the Saudi Arabia side decided to
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  Speaker 3: put a big blockade, like what we're doing with Iran,
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  Speaker 3: on Yemen. And they were, you know, completely blocking them
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  Speaker 3: off from all kinds of stuff and putting them under
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  Speaker 3: a lot of economic privation. And so now then they say,
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  Speaker 3: all right, we're no longer going to accept that. That's
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  Speaker 3: what's driving them right now. They're using the Bab al-Mandab,
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  Speaker 3: that strait in the bottom part of the Red Sea
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  Speaker 3: you mentioned, as the leverage to force Saudi Arabia to
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  Speaker 3: stop their blockade. That's their objective right now. It's to
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  Speaker 3: force Saudi Arabia to stop the war and to stop
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  Speaker 3: its blockade. They say until that happens, they're going to
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  Speaker 3: continue to hit Saudi oil infrastructure, and they just hit
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  Speaker 3: a huge pipeline pumping station that prevents them from getting like...
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  Speaker 3: almost 4 million barrels a day out to the Yanbu
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  Speaker 3: so they even have a chance to get it through Suez.
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  Speaker 3: So right now there's a huge problem for the Saudi oil.
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  Speaker 3: And until Saudi Arabia does what the Yemenis are telling them,
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  Speaker 3: this war is going to continue.
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  Speaker 1: What specifically are the Yemenis expecting from Saudi Arabia?
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  Speaker 2: They want them to lift the blockade. That literally is
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  Speaker 2: their primary objective.
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  Speaker 1: And how would that impact our relationship with Saudi Arabia?
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  Speaker 1: Assuming that, listen, we can't deal with the hassle. Obviously,
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  Speaker 1: they're very well armed, these Houthis, and they keep bombing us.
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  Speaker 1: We need to keep production up, so we'll concede. What
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  Speaker 1: does Saudi Arabia then give the Houthis, unless it's enough
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  Speaker 1: for them to just get the oil, the straight open, because,
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  Speaker 1: of course, on the other side, they want to charge
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  Speaker 1: tolls and regulate traffic. The Iranians do. So if the
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  Speaker 1: Houthis aren't after that, then what do, will the Houthis
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  Speaker 1: then sort of, give up this. They're not interested in
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  Speaker 1: impacting America. They're solely interested in dealing with Saudi Arabia.
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  Speaker 1: I just want to make sure there's a separation. Okay.
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  Speaker 2: That is correct.
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  Speaker 3: And they have made that clear to the White House.
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  Speaker 3: They've made it clear publicly. Then, in fact, they have
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  Speaker 3: also said, listen, even though we have the physical control
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  Speaker 3: now of the Bab al-Mandab, we only are closing it
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  Speaker 3: to Saudi traffic, Saudi oil, Saudi production products in or out,
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  Speaker 3: but everybody else is free to go. So there is
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  Speaker 3: still flow Traffic flowing through for every other country that's
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  Speaker 3: going through there, everyone else has been able to traffic.
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  Speaker 3: So they've been very specific about who they stop and
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  Speaker 3: who they don't stop.
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  Speaker 1: Now that suggests to me, and here's where you get
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  Speaker 1: to break it down for us, Daniel Davis, Deep Dive,
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  Speaker 1: that that situation may be, I don't want to use
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  Speaker 1: the word easily, but could be resolved in a simple way?
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  Speaker 1: What's the risk to Saudi Arabia?
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  Speaker 2: It's simple for us because Saudi Arabia has to stand down.
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  Speaker 3: They have to stop blocking them. And I think that's
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  Speaker 3: where it's going to eventually go. Of course, it's going
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  Speaker 3: to result in a lot of loss of face and
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  Speaker 3: a loss of embarrassment, et cetera. But so far, I mean,
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  Speaker 3: all the way through when the Houthis were interdicting Red
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  Speaker 3: Sea traffic going into Israel. During the fighting, the active
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  Speaker 3: portion of the Hamas war, when the other side does
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  Speaker 3: what they have asked them to do, the Houthis do
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  Speaker 3: what they promised. So when Israel stopped, you know, when
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  Speaker 3: they had the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, they stopped
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  Speaker 3: interdicting Israeli traffic. So if Saudi Arabia stops its blockade,
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  Speaker 3: there's reason to believe that they would then comply and
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  Speaker 3: stop their blockage of Saudi traffic.
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  Speaker 1: Would they resume bombing targets in Saudi Arabia?
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  Speaker 3: No, I mean, cause they don't have any, the whole
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  Speaker 3: purpose of that is not to conquer Saudi Arabia. It's
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  Speaker 3: to force them to lift the blockade so that they
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  Speaker 3: can do this.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: Who these normal traffic. And I think they would be
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  Speaker 3: more than satisfied with that.
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  Speaker 1: All right. Well, someone could go negotiate that when it
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  Speaker 1: seems Daniel Davis, I'm not sure, but the challenge is.
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  Speaker 2: In Saudi Arabia is begging.
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  Speaker 3: They're begging, uh, the, this new Mecca accord, they're begging, uh, Pakistan,
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  Speaker 3: they're bagging Turkey to come and help them. They've gotten
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  Speaker 3: on the phone with President Trump saying, hey, I need
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  Speaker 3: your military help.
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  Speaker 2: And so far, nobody's willing to do it.
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  Speaker 3: Nobody wants to get into this war that I think,
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  Speaker 3: like you're saying, they go, dude, just lift the blockade
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  Speaker 3: and the thing's over with. We're not going to go
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  Speaker 3: in and start a war just because you don't want
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  Speaker 3: to lift the blockade. And so I think that's where
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  Speaker 3: it's going to stay.
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  Speaker 1: But, you know, that obviously gives the Houthis down the road,
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  Speaker 1: they could ponder, well... Maybe we want something else, and
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  Speaker 1: all we need to do is get that is to
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  Speaker 1: shut down the Strait again because we have the leverage
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  Speaker 1: there because our physical presence is there and boats can't
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  Speaker 1: get through without the risk of being blown up.
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  Speaker 3: Except that Saudi Arabia does have, and they have been
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  Speaker 3: launching significant airstrikes over the last 48 hours, so the
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  Speaker 3: Houthis are getting pummeled from the air, but they have
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  Speaker 3: a large enough force that they can endure it, and
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  Speaker 3: they're willing to make that sacrifice as long as it's
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  Speaker 3: moving towards an objective, but once they have it, I mean,
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  Speaker 3: they don't want bombs falling down on them from the
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  Speaker 3: Saudi airspace. So Saudi Arabia is not without capability here
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  Speaker 3: is the bottom line.
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  Speaker 2: Understood.
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  Speaker 1: And pivoting over from the Red Sea back to the
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  Speaker 1: Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, I don't think
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  Speaker 1: it takes much to conclude that this war ain't going
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  Speaker 1: anywhere at least until after the November elections. I think
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  Speaker 1: the Iranians have made that pretty darn clear. I know
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump has said it out loud. That seems to
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  Speaker 1: be something obvious. They're hoping to bring about pain to
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  Speaker 1: the Trump administration along with, well, getting the concessions that
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  Speaker 1: they've been looking for.
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  Speaker 2: Well, both sides are doing literally the same thing.
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  Speaker 3: The Iranian side is trying to bring economic pain on
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  Speaker 3: President Trump by keeping pain on basically the rest of
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  Speaker 3: the world through the blockage of their portion of the strait.
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  Speaker 3: And then President Trump is doing the same thing. He's like, no,
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  Speaker 3: we're going to outlast you. We're going to keep Operation Epic,
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  Speaker 3: whatever they call the thing, outcast or whatever this economic thing.
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  Speaker 3: And they're saying, who's going to blink first? And There's
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  Speaker 3: no pathway for either side to give.
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  Speaker 2: In anytime soon.
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  Speaker 3: I don't think the elections have anything to do with anything.
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  Speaker 3: That's just a date on our calendar, but it has
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  Speaker 3: nothing to do with the fundamentals of this war. So
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  Speaker 3: right now, there's no path. There's no diplomacy being talked about.
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  Speaker 3: There's nothing but both sides trying to say, no, I'm
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  Speaker 3: going to squeeze you harder. No, I'm going to squeeze
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  Speaker 3: you harder. And this is going to continue on. And
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  Speaker 3: we're all losers in this. And let's be clear on this.
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  Speaker 3: There's no path, in my view, that we're going to
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  Speaker 3: squeeze Iran hard enough to make them cry uncle, as
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  Speaker 3: Trump said.
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  Speaker 2: Sometimes. It's just not going to happen.
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  Speaker 3: They'll be eating grass before they submit to anything the
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  Speaker 3: United States has done.
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  Speaker 2: They can suffer a lot. I don't know we can
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  Speaker 2: suffer that long. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: And you're not alone in your conclusions in that regard.
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  Speaker 1: Every once in a while, I get a listener, oh,
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  Speaker 1: I don't believe what this Daniel Davis guy is saying. But,
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  Speaker 1: you know, So I keep reminding people, over time, you've
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: been on this program a lot over the last several years,
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  Speaker 1: and what you have suggested typically comes true, Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 1: You're prescient along those lines.
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  Speaker 2: Listen, I get it.
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  Speaker 3: People don't like what I'm saying, but it's the fundamentals,
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  Speaker 3: and I'm just calling it like it is.
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  Speaker 2: I know, man.
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  Speaker 1: Listen, I get it. If I had some counterpoint that
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  Speaker 1: could sort of negate what you're saying to me, I
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  Speaker 1: certainly would utter it. I just I the fog of
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  Speaker 1: war is one component. The realities of history and the
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  Speaker 1: Iranians been around for so damn long living under terrible
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  Speaker 1: economic conditions. They seem to have grown accustomed to it.
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  Speaker 1: They're callous to it. And they have this religious will
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  Speaker 1: behind them, which transcends anything that politics deals with. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: religion takes us into a whole new realm. Now, I
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: got to ask you for.
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  Speaker 2: Religion, culture and history. You're right. Those are a powerful mix.
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  Speaker 3: And when somebody has decided that that's their in their
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  Speaker 3: nature and their character, they'll die that way. Just like
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  Speaker 3: we would just like just look at what we did
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  Speaker 3: after 9-11, after Pearl Harbor.
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  Speaker 2: It's in our DNA, too.
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  Speaker 3: And we just dare not think that this side, because
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  Speaker 3: we don't like them, won't react the same way that
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  Speaker 3: we do.
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  Speaker 1: Well, pivoting over real quick here before we part company,
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  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis, you had mentioned bringing about bringing about this
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  Speaker 1: economic hardship on the world. And of course, we are
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: all feeling the results in the form of let's just
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: look at diesel fuel prices. Donald Trump asked Zelensky to
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: not bomb Russian diesel production facilities. And of course, you know,
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Russia says that's great. And, you know, we won't bomb,
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  Speaker 1: you know, their production facilities. I I just don't– I
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  Speaker 1: can't comprehend that. I don't know which side we are on,
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  Speaker 1: but telling Russia not to bomb something that might– or
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  Speaker 1: telling Zelensky not to bomb something that might be in
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  Speaker 1: Zelensky's best interest just doesn't seem normal. Is it that
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  Speaker 1: bad that if any of the diesel production facilities in
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  Speaker 1: Russia get blown up, it's going to make things that
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  Speaker 1: much worse?
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  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, it is causing a problem.
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  Speaker 3: See, because Russia has historically been a diesel– refined product diesel–
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  Speaker 3: But now then they've stopped all the export because the
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  Speaker 3: refinement positions have been hit by the Ukrainian side. So
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  Speaker 3: now then they're just keeping it for their domestic and
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  Speaker 3: military use. And so they're saying we're not going to
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  Speaker 3: send it out. Well, that combined with what's going on
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  Speaker 3: in the Middle East is putting a huge problem globally
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: on diesel. You see it's having an impact here, but
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: it's even bigger in Europe. And therefore, the cost of
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: everything that gets transported with diesel, and that means on
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: ships or on the big trucks, is also going to
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: start going up.
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  Speaker 2: And so it's a real problem.
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  Speaker 1: Oh, if the world's, the globe's historically largest economic and
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: military powerhouse in the world could just build refineries.
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  Speaker 2: Hmm.
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  Speaker 1: Interesting concept, the United States actually building a refinery to
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: satisfy even at minimum its own needs, let alone the
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: huge demand on the globe. That seems to be a
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  Speaker 1: very capitalist concept. The world demands diesel. There aren't enough
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: diesel barrels out there. Hey, why don't we build a refinery?
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  Speaker 2: Sorry. Well, yeah.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, it takes a little time to do that
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  Speaker 3: because prior to this war, this system was working fine.
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  Speaker 2: We were making plenty of money.
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: The system was supplied with all the stuff that it
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: needs from all the different producers. And now things have
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: changed and nobody wants to put this money out because
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: they're going, well, once the war over, we'll go back
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: to the way it was.
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  Speaker 2: And yeah, it's a problem.
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  Speaker 1: Well, if you're in a global competition with regard to
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: fuel supply and you are the most stable producer of
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  Speaker 1: diesel fuel. I think people would like to do business
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  Speaker 1: with you rather than some war-torn Middle Eastern country which
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: has never seen peace in 2,000 years. Just a thought.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis, Deep Dive, every week here at 55KRC at 830.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: You can just find his podcast wherever you get your
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: podcasts and check out what Daniel has to say. I
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: appreciate your thoughts and observations and the time that you
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: spend with my listening audience every week, Daniel.