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Mark interviews Pollster John McLaughlin. · The Mark Simone Show

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  Speaker 1: The Mark Simone Show continues on seven tenor well.
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  Speaker 2: Do you see all these public poles, you know, these
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  Speaker 2: college polls, media polls and this. They mostly just junk.
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  Speaker 2: They're cheap, they're flimsy, they don't talk to a lot
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  Speaker 2: of people, they don't talk to the right people. They're
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  Speaker 2: often biased and slanted. Now behind the scenes, you got
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  Speaker 2: the real polls, the ones the candidates use. They cost
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  Speaker 2: a lot of money, they're much more sophisticated. And the
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  Speaker 2: best poster of all is John McLachlan. Uh and you
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  Speaker 2: can go to his website McLachlan online dot com. John
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  Speaker 2: McLaughlin and the company do the best polls in the
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  Speaker 2: world that work for presidents and all the top candidates.
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  Speaker 2: John McLaughlin, how you doing.
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  Speaker 1: I'm doing well, and h thank you for the flattering remarks.
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  Speaker 1: And as long as Donald Trump's president, I'll take it, yur.
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  Speaker 2: It's good I should point out yours polster as well
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  Speaker 2: as many other presidents all over the world. Hey, I'm
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  Speaker 2: watching the Morning Joe and apparently the Republicans are way
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  Speaker 2: behind in the midterms. They're gonna get wiped out. And
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  Speaker 2: of course, Morning Joe, what's the real story.
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  Speaker 1: By the way, if you go to our website, you
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  Speaker 1: just said at McLaughlan online dot com. We posted national
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  Speaker 1: numbers on Friday, thousand likely voters of a survey that
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  Speaker 1: was completed until you know that Thursday, so it was
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  Speaker 1: it was just completed. We posted on Friday. And the
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  Speaker 1: president has a forty nine percent job approval, forty seven disapproved,
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  Speaker 1: so he's so he's hanging around fifty percent, and it's
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  Speaker 1: pretty static because his base is rock solid. We could
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  Speaker 1: do better in the center. We could we could raise
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  Speaker 1: our numbers among independents and some other voters that we
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  Speaker 1: created our coalition. They I mean he won with fifty percent.
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  Speaker 1: A lot of these polls that get the media quotes,
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  Speaker 1: they're polls of adults, they're polls of registered voters. They're
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  Speaker 1: not likely voters to turnout. Was one hundred and fifty
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  Speaker 1: five million where he ran for president and we got
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  Speaker 1: fifty percent of the popular vote. And then you see
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  Speaker 1: polls like economists, you gov and they're saying, oh, it's terrible,
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  Speaker 1: you know, had these bias to questions. Don't only have
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  Speaker 1: thirty three thirty four percent people who said they voted
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  Speaker 1: for Trump in twenty twenty four, which which means like,
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  Speaker 1: can we get fifty percent? So they go out of
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  Speaker 1: their way to find people that don't like the president
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  Speaker 1: and put them in their polls. And then they try
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  Speaker 1: to say Vegas that we're going to lose this selection. Now.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, but let me explain that to people. Two things.
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  Speaker 2: You use likely voters, which is hard to find. They
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  Speaker 2: just say adults, which means they can do it in
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  Speaker 2: the faculty lounge of Columbia. Then they they don't put
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  Speaker 2: enough Republicans in the sample. So but I interrupted, but
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  Speaker 2: go ahead, No, that's all right.
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  Speaker 1: But because you put in context your listeners, they'd rather
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  Speaker 1: listen to you understand your listeners. So, but you put
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  Speaker 1: in context because they they literally they can have illegal
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  Speaker 1: immigrants in their polls. When they pull adults, they're just
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  Speaker 1: randomly call cell phones and if they call, a lot
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  Speaker 1: of them are online surveys of people that are paid
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  Speaker 1: to take them online. But the but we have to
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  Speaker 1: do it by voters. We call voters and we ask
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  Speaker 1: them if they're likely to vote. Because for president, you
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  Speaker 1: had to earn fifteen to five million voters come out
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  Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen. In the midterm, you had to hundred
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  Speaker 1: an eighteen million nationwide in twenty twenty two, you had
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  Speaker 1: to hun twelve million, So you're not going to get
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  Speaker 1: the same turnout. And the key thing for the Republicans
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  Speaker 1: is my generic ballot still has the Democrats ahead by
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  Speaker 1: two points. Really yeah, yeah, as they're leading forty four
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  Speaker 1: to forty six. Because there's a gap between Trump's job
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  Speaker 1: approval and the Republicans. Because the President wants to do
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  Speaker 1: things like voter ID proof of citizenship to vote, the
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  Speaker 1: Republicans in the Senate aren't moving it, so some Trump
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  Speaker 1: voters may not come out, they may not vote for them.
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  Speaker 1: And the same thing, like there's a lot of people
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  Speaker 1: like Larry Cudlow and myself and others who think we
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  Speaker 1: need another tax cut, we need pro growth tax cuts
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  Speaker 1: to help people, you know, grow out of inflation. And
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  Speaker 1: you know we've got like sixty one percent one of
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  Speaker 1: an index taxes for inflation, you've got sixty eight percent.
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  Speaker 1: Want to collapse the brackets so that people under two
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  Speaker 1: hundred gram only two hundred thousand a year only make
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  Speaker 1: only pay twelve percent federal taxes instead of twenty two.
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  Speaker 1: So those are really good ideas that we can't get
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  Speaker 1: the Republicans in the Senate to.
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  Speaker 2: Move Yeah, and Larry Cudlow's absolutely right. The Republicans right now,
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  Speaker 2: the messaging stinks. They don't have any right now.
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  Speaker 1: No, no, I'm one of the people. Even though you know,
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  Speaker 1: the president's not running for reelection, although he did, like
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  Speaker 1: just had the Correspondence dinner when he said he was
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  Speaker 1: wearing a twenty twenty eight at he does that to
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  Speaker 1: get a ride out of the president, but he's he
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  Speaker 1: can't run again, so you know he won't be on
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  Speaker 1: the ballot. So in November, the Republicans need to get
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  Speaker 1: every Trump voter out that seventy seven million that voted
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  Speaker 1: for Trump. We need to motivate it to come out
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  Speaker 1: that they come out at higher levels than the seventy
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  Speaker 1: five million the voter for House and that's what decides
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  Speaker 1: the election. And by the way, you're seeing places like
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  Speaker 1: here in New York where most voters don't like Kathy
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  Speaker 1: Huckel And in the beginning of the month it was
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  Speaker 1: a poll by coefficient and Independent Paul had Bruce Blakeman
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  Speaker 1: only down six points. So you're seeing it in certain
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  Speaker 1: races around the country where the Democrats are not liked
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  Speaker 1: and you know, Mayor Mandami, he's not liked in the suburbs,
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  Speaker 1: he's not liked upstate, you know, and he's raising his
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  Speaker 1: negatives in particularly the attleboroughs. So you may see some
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  Speaker 1: some trends that where we bucked the midterm. We bucked
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  Speaker 1: the midterm election. But you know, two thousand and two
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  Speaker 1: Republicans picked up eight House seats and picked up two
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  Speaker 1: Senate seats in a midterm. We could do it again.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah. Now you're also Bruce Blakeman's poster correct.
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  Speaker 1: Yes, yes, Bruce doing very well, working really hard. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: No, he has been climbing. Didn't He start like twenty
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  Speaker 2: points behind and now he's six.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, something like that. But that's typicult for him. I
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  Speaker 1: mean yeah, when he got for carrying exec when he
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  Speaker 1: got in that race back in twenty one, he was
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  Speaker 1: down twenty four points in March and he won, you know,
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  Speaker 1: he won. Then in November he came back from twenty
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  Speaker 1: four points down. So this one, yeah, he was down
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  Speaker 1: twenty points. We had him in a statewide paul that
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  Speaker 1: was released in March, he was down nine. This other
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  Speaker 1: Paul has him down six. And Governor Huckel has a
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  Speaker 1: lot more powerful incumbancy. But she's just you know, the
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  Speaker 1: utility builds are too high, taxes are too high, the
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  Speaker 1: you know, the state and the city or in deficits,
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  Speaker 1: and people know that means future taxes and crime is
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  Speaker 1: going on. Then you've seen you know, this just tragedy
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  Speaker 1: last week where the mayor's attacking Israel and one of
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  Speaker 1: my other clients prime minister. Then he attacks him personally
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  Speaker 1: because he's trying to beat him in Israel. But then
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  Speaker 1: but then you know the next day you get two
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  Speaker 1: people stamped. Poor guy was wearing Yamica and he got
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  Speaker 1: stabbed in New York. Because I'm sure this is one
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  Speaker 1: Mndammie's plan is he's got to run for reelection. He
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  Speaker 1: knows that he loses the Jewish vote. He wants to
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  Speaker 1: create a place, a city where Jewish voters leave the
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  Speaker 1: city and it's it's it's they're afraid. And you know
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  Speaker 1: he's doing this intentionally. He's a really bad guy. Just
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  Speaker 1: you know, It's it's one thing to dislike people based
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  Speaker 1: on what their views are that you ideologically disagree, etc.
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  Speaker 1: It's another thing to dislike people because of who they are.
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  Speaker 1: Because once you'd start disliking Jews, then it's the next thing,
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  Speaker 1: I be Blacks and Italians or whatever. He just, you know,
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  Speaker 1: he'll just it's it's sad because New York City, that's
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  Speaker 1: that's against their tradition. So New York State, we have
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  Speaker 1: different values, different things. But by the way, one good
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  Speaker 1: note from the survey that we had, we asked the
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  Speaker 1: question nationally, all things being equal, for Congress, do you
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  Speaker 1: support a Republican candidate who supports free market capitalism or
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  Speaker 1: are you going to vote for a Democrat candidate who
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  Speaker 1: supports big government socialism. The Republican in that case, if
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  Speaker 1: they stand for free market capitalism versus a big government socialist,
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  Speaker 1: they win forty nine to thirty six. Wow, And they
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  Speaker 1: went among independents, they went among but they got to
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  Speaker 1: frame the race. They got to have a message. You
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  Speaker 1: know what, but you will, Larry've talked about is right.
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  Speaker 2: Now the president coast of Michigan today where you got
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  Speaker 2: some crazy socialist in the race there. But that's the heartland,
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  Speaker 2: that's the middle of America, Michigan. A socialist isn't going
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  Speaker 2: to win that, are they?
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  Speaker 1: Well, Democrats tend to win. But Mike Rodgers is an
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  Speaker 1: excellent candidate. For the Republicans, but you got a tough
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  Speaker 1: primary between Haley Stevens, is a very liberal Democrat, and
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  Speaker 1: Al Sayad, who's a Democrat socialist who has some pretty
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  Speaker 1: radical views. So, I mean, the cancer of big government
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  Speaker 1: socialism is spreading, whether it's Maine. Although Platner had to
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  Speaker 1: step down, they found another, the radical Tall Rico in Texas.
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  Speaker 1: So the Democrats are they're getting beaten their own primaries
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  Speaker 1: by these Democrats socialists, and they're knocking off you know,
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  Speaker 1: like you saw the Congressman spac kept beating in New
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  Speaker 1: York by one of Mandami's people. You saw, you know,
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  Speaker 1: Brad Landers knock off Dan Goldman. I mean, those are
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  Speaker 1: mainstream liberals getting knocked off by these big government socialists.
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  Speaker 1: So the Democrat Party is really going off the edge
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  Speaker 1: of the earth. It's really bad.
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  Speaker 2: You mentioned who you're his upholster. He's got a reelection
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  Speaker 2: coming up. He's okay in that right, he's going to win.
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  Speaker 1: It's always tough until the end, so he'll at the
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  Speaker 1: end of October, they'll be an election in Israel, and
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  Speaker 1: it's they have it's a more complex system where you
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  Speaker 1: have a lot of multiple parties, but it seems that
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  Speaker 1: his opponents can't beat him without doing a coalition with
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  Speaker 1: Arab parties that are you know, the last time they
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  Speaker 1: were in power, That's how bav got re elected again.
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  Speaker 1: He was out of power for a year and then
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  Speaker 1: you know they got m coalition they had there because
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  Speaker 1: you know, security here, we have a very strong national security.
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  Speaker 1: We have the finest military in the world. It's a
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  Speaker 1: dangerous world out there. When you live in Israel, all
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  Speaker 1: your neighbors want to kill you. They're literally a small country.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, John mcglockam, we only got a couple of sets
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  Speaker 2: thirty seconds. Jerry Nadler, that fat waddling slab is leaving.
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  Speaker 2: There's a very attractive young republic really feel about him.
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  Speaker 2: Republican candidate Caroline Shinkle does she have anych Does a
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  Speaker 2: Republican have any shot in that district?
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  Speaker 1: You know, if if she if I've heard, I've met
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  Speaker 1: her briefly. She seems like a very very strong qualified candidate,
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  Speaker 1: and she would have a shot in that if she
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  Speaker 1: could get the resources and the Republicans in their party
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  Speaker 1: they have a lot of they I mean, you have it,
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  Speaker 1: by the way, you have a good candidate against AOC
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  Speaker 1: and in Diamont. But but you have Shinkle run and
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  Speaker 1: the Republicans have a lot of money. They've got to
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  Speaker 1: they got to invest in some of these long shot
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  Speaker 1: races to uh to put the Democrats back on defense.
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  Speaker 1: But you know, right right now, I mean you see
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  Speaker 1: going on. It's it's it's in New York City. It's
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  Speaker 1: it's it's a change that it's changing the character of
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  Speaker 1: the city, which is not good. Well, you know, as
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  Speaker 1: we come into twenty five years after nine to eleven,
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  Speaker 1: I got to remember a lot of friends of ours,
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  Speaker 1: and you know, and now you've got a lot of
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  Speaker 1: men and women uh in the military, and this poor
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  Speaker 1: woman from Queens was killed by these terrorists, uh, and
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  Speaker 1: they're gonna have a more for her.
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  Speaker 2: So well, John McLoughlin, we got we're out of time, Unforce.
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  Speaker 2: We'll have to do this again soon. But thanks for
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  Speaker 2: uh being brilliant as always, everybody. Go to McLaughlan online
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  Speaker 2: dot com. You have the latest poll UH numbers up
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  Speaker 2: there and charts. Go take a look at it McLaughlin
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  Speaker 2: online dot com. John McLoughlin, thanks for being with us.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you, Mark, appreciate it.
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  Speaker 2: Take care, don't forget Buck and Clay coming up at
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: noon today and then three o'clock. He got Sean Hannedy,
• 12:03
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  Speaker 2: midnight here on seven ten wor