Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Best Bets | NFL Week 4

Transcript

Best Bets | NFL Week 4 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, presented by DraftKings. We are an
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by my fellow djens.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Your crew here at the Favorites, Kendra Middleton and the
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, the one and only Stucky.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: On today's show, we're gonna submit our official plays for
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: week four in the NFL Sides, Totals, props, parlays. Everything
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: is on the table, Like and subscribe wherever it is
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: that you are tuned in. I made sure to look
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: this up pre podcast. We are in a waxing crescent
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: moon right now. The moon has been the most profitable
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: thing about this show so far. We are changing the
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: name of our three leg parlay as well, the Three Musketeers.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: We'll be put six feet under after today. But Kendra,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: any moon angles before we get off and running. We
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: got a lot of good stuff today.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: No moon angles.
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: People hate it on me so much for the moon angle.
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: I'm not a moon gambler, but I thought that I
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: love like a silly little reason to bet on something,
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: and that's what I took from that. It worked out
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: for me, no doubt. I will continue to have silly
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: little he he haha. Angles from here, but I love
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: something stupid to bet on. So here we are no moon,
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: no moon bets for me. But the moon Beats are
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: not dead. Do not We're not They're not in They're
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: not in beat jail.
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: They'll be back.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: I'm so a little surprised that we don't have some
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: sort of and maybe we'll think of one before the
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: end of the episode. We've got three ideas that we
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: like as far as what to name our three leg parlay.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: We each nominate two picks and then go around the
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: horn and then whittle that down one apiece is what
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: we've been doing.
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: Only one of.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: The legs has hit so far in the two weeks
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: that we've done this. I think we probably should shoehorn
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: some sort of Moon reference because of how well that
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: played out last week with Jared Goff. So something to
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: think about. Thursday's shows loaded up. We're gonna start with
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: the shrimp unbelievable stat of the Week courtesy of Action
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. Shout out to Ken
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Kendrick's Rainbow Shrimp, Monica, Lashtrimsky, and Oj Shrimpson on the
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: research do date Do we have any is there any
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: sort of.
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: I check her every hour. I just about her to
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: see if she'll come out and show me. What if
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: that thing is still saying?
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: So we'll see Stucky. What about you?
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: You're also you also have a pregnant wife, so there's
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: a lot of pregnancy on this show.
• 2:30
  Speaker 5: Pregnant wife, dog golf surgery. It's rough.
• 2:33
  Speaker 6: Uh the oh, my question. I always bring a question
• 2:38
  Speaker 6: for Thursday episodes for you. So my question is, well,
• 2:42
  Speaker 6: I have two questions. One, out of all the places
• 2:46
  Speaker 6: you've ever visited in your life, where would you go
• 2:50
  Speaker 6: if you had to go back to one and you
• 2:52
  Speaker 6: had a free, like all expenses paid trip.
• 2:54
  Speaker 5: Where are you choosing, Kendre.
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: I'll start with you, Havar, Croatia. Next question, the best
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: place I've ever been?
• 3:05
  Speaker 5: Like one sentence about it.
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, it was okay.
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: It changed how I eat Prosudo. I can't eat Proshuto
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: the same way it is. The treffle Prosudo and wine.
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: They're so good, so cheap. The beaches are incredible, The
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: nightlife is awesome. They have like a private island where
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: you get on like you pay twenty bucks to get
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: on a boat and then you go in. There's a
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: club and they have some of the best DJs in
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: the world, and then you boat back when you're hammered
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: at the end of the night, which can get a
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: little dicey after a night of drinking, but the food's
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: really good.
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: Havar h v Ar.
• 3:37
  Speaker 5: Is that you're like Split or dun.
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: So Deic is like a little it's like one of
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: the islands off the coast. Split is like obviously like
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: a little bit more north and inward.
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: But you could definitely hit Dubrovnik.
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: I think I took like an hour and a half
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: boat from Dubrevnick to Havar and you can just island
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: hop it's the best.
• 3:56
  Speaker 5: Got it?
• 3:57
  Speaker 6: Yeah, Gracias on my list to go to. I've been
• 4:02
  Speaker 6: fortunate enough to travel to a lot of places. My
• 4:04
  Speaker 6: easy answer for this is the Galopagos Islands. That's the
• 4:08
  Speaker 6: craziest place I've ever been to. You gotta go to
• 4:10
  Speaker 6: Ecuador first. I mean it is in Necdor. You gotta
• 4:12
  Speaker 6: go to mainline Ecuador. You gotta get like checked. You
• 4:15
  Speaker 6: can't bring any plastics.
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: You can't bring any plastic.
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: Yeah, they like.
• 4:19
  Speaker 6: Search all your things. You can't bring any seeds. There's
• 4:21
  Speaker 6: no plastics on the island, so like it's a serious check.
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: What do you do about sunscreen stuff?
• 4:25
  Speaker 6: They have like special sunscreen there you can buy.
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: And I you go to Keto first. Keto was pretty cool.
• 4:34
  Speaker 6: We were there when like one of the we were
• 4:36
  Speaker 6: staying right by the presidential palace and one of the
• 4:38
  Speaker 6: guys running for president was assassinated and I got to
• 4:44
  Speaker 6: I woke up. I got an email from the State
• 4:45
  Speaker 6: Department there like don't go outside of voyage, dude, I'm
• 4:48
  Speaker 6: right by the presidential palace.
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: But yeah, we went to.
• 4:54
  Speaker 6: Then we went to the Galapgos Islands for ten days,
• 4:56
  Speaker 6: stayed in a bunch of the islands. Coolest place are
• 4:58
  Speaker 6: be into no animals or not, I'm afraid of you.
• 5:01
  Speaker 6: The coolest experience I ever had happened in the Galapagoes.
• 5:03
  Speaker 6: I swam with us like a group of baby sea
• 5:07
  Speaker 6: lions like snorkeling, and they were just playing with me.
• 5:10
  Speaker 6: And then the big mom came and just like looked
• 5:14
  Speaker 6: swim these big sea turtles like none of the animals
• 5:17
  Speaker 6: are afraid of you. Like you would just there would
• 5:19
  Speaker 6: be like a you'd be sitting on a bench and
• 5:20
  Speaker 6: like a seal would PLoP up on the bench next
• 5:23
  Speaker 6: to you.
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: Oh my god, I jumped to the top of my
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: list because I'm such an animal person. I went to
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: Costa Rica lat An animal. Yeah, I'm the biggest.
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, I am getting a spider and I am
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: breeding shrimp right now. So yes, yeah, it.
• 5:37
  Speaker 6: Is an insane place. Even the birds, the boobies, the
• 5:42
  Speaker 6: blue foot of boobies. That it's it's a magical place.
• 5:46
  Speaker 6: So that would be my.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: I didn't even know you could visit the Galapago, so
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: I just thought that that was something in the Darwin
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Road about.
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: I didn't know that this was. This was.
• 5:56
  Speaker 5: Yeah, there's a bunch of islands you can stay on.
• 5:58
  Speaker 6: There's like hotels, there's some really nice and we stay
• 6:02
  Speaker 6: in this one hotel on one of the islands. Like
• 6:03
  Speaker 6: we had the top floor and it was like all
• 6:07
  Speaker 6: open and like these enormous birds would just you could
• 6:11
  Speaker 6: sit on your deck and they would fly and it
• 6:13
  Speaker 6: was all open on the water. Oh my god, it
• 6:15
  Speaker 6: was crazy. But yeah, that's like the little towns are cool.
• 6:21
  Speaker 6: So yeah, that was incredible. How about you, Brandon, what
• 6:25
  Speaker 6: are you choosing?
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: It's it's a tough choice. I mean, my cheesy answer
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: for a betting podcast would be Las Vegas. I've been
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: there twice, two completely different experiences. I went there on
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: a non bachelor party. My my friend was set to
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: get married. I planned his bachelor party. I was the
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: best man. His fiance cheated on him right before the
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: wedding and right before we left for the trip. So
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: just imagine what that was like in Las Vegas, the
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: non bachelor party where you are playing by no rules
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: at that point with a very angry individual.
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: Rightfully so.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: And then I also went on a work trip through
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: one of my other freelance partners, So two.
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: Completely different experiences, both great.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Still haven't gone there with my wife, so I think
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: that that would be like the third leg of how
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: to Appreciate Las Vegas, to do the shows and all
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: that stuff. But Jamaica I've also done twice. That's an
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: incredible place. So I've I met Vanessa Lache, which is
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: really random, at some outdoor beach party. She was drunk,
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: very funny individual. But the food there is tremendous. The
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: jerk chicken I could eat all day.
• 7:39
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I've been Costa Rica is really cool.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: Okay, it's expensive and overrated.
• 7:46
  Speaker 5: I stayed in a resort when out the Costa Rica.
• 7:49
  Speaker 6: Been there are other times, but I stated like the
• 7:50
  Speaker 6: Secrets all inclusive resort, which was pretty cool. The but yeah,
• 7:57
  Speaker 6: I mean, I've been to Vegas hundred times. If you
• 7:59
  Speaker 6: ever go to, I guess either one of you or
• 8:00
  Speaker 6: anyone else out there. Every year I'll put out this
• 8:03
  Speaker 6: huge list most underrated food city. If you like know
• 8:06
  Speaker 6: the right people, even off the strip, I can give
• 8:09
  Speaker 6: you a whole list by category of food of all that,
• 8:12
  Speaker 6: and it changes every year or too, because it depending
• 8:14
  Speaker 6: on where the chef's move. But I know a couple
• 8:16
  Speaker 6: people in the food industry there, so.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: I'll be there for the Grand Prix.
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: Hit me up, I will, yeah, I'll give you a list.
• 8:23
  Speaker 6: I'll tweet that out soon, an updated list of all
• 8:26
  Speaker 6: all of the restaurants there. But I'll save I'll save
• 8:29
  Speaker 6: my next question for the next podcast.
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: Okay, I got you know.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: I kind of like this tradition now because Stucky Stucky
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: comes out left field with these questions, So that's definitely
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: entering the rundown moving forward, But let's hit the shrimply
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: unbelievable stat of the week.
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: Last fifteen years, we've had.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Seven teams who have had a wining total of ten
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: or more in the preseason fall to one in three
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: straight up, none of which have made the playoffs. The
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: two teams that could end up fitting this mold would
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: be Kansas and Baltimore. They play each other on Sunday.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: The Chiefs are minus two hundred to make the playoffs
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: plus one sixty to miss over at DraftKings. The Ravens
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: are minus twelve hundred to make the playoffs plus two
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: hundred to miss. Are you willing to take a shot
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: on either of those to miss the playoffs right now?
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: As it stands? And perhaps the better question is, is Sunday's
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: game and an elimination game?
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: Stuck you? Where are you at on this?
• 9:27
  Speaker 6: No, it's not an elimination game, but I mean teams
• 9:30
  Speaker 6: at start zero and three only only historically made a
• 9:32
  Speaker 6: playoffs one percent of the time. But if I had
• 9:38
  Speaker 6: a bet one of those teams to not make it, it
• 9:39
  Speaker 6: would be the Chiefs. I can't bet the Ravens this weekend.
• 9:43
  Speaker 6: They have too many injuries, like I still don't know
• 9:45
  Speaker 6: unlikely recards, so their offense isn't the same. Their guards
• 9:48
  Speaker 6: are struggling and then defensively without Van Noy without Matabuke,
• 9:51
  Speaker 6: who might be out for an extended period of time.
• 9:53
  Speaker 6: They got to go get someone they got a trade for,
• 9:54
  Speaker 6: like Dexter Lawrence or someone. Their defensive line, their whole
• 9:58
  Speaker 6: defensive line didn't practice yesterday, is in shambles. They can't
• 10:01
  Speaker 6: stop the run, they can't get pressure. It's a mess
• 10:04
  Speaker 6: right now in a short week. So I can't bet
• 10:05
  Speaker 6: them here as a two and a half point road favorite.
• 10:09
  Speaker 6: But if I had to take a shot, I would
• 10:11
  Speaker 6: go no on the Chiefs just because I think the
• 10:17
  Speaker 6: Chiefs are a worst team number one, and I know
• 10:22
  Speaker 6: they're probably going to get Rice and Worthy back and
• 10:24
  Speaker 6: have them both back, but their division is tougher, like
• 10:27
  Speaker 6: there's no burrow for the Bengals. I don't think the
• 10:29
  Speaker 6: Steelers are any good. And then the Browns, so like
• 10:33
  Speaker 6: the Ravens, have a much easier path, whereas the Chargers
• 10:36
  Speaker 6: already beat the Chiefs, already have a game in hand.
• 10:40
  Speaker 6: You know, you have the Broncos, who are a pretty
• 10:42
  Speaker 6: good team with a wind total that was around nine
• 10:44
  Speaker 6: and a half. I think the Raiders that they can
• 10:46
  Speaker 6: figure out their offensive line and.
• 10:48
  Speaker 5: Some of the.
• 10:50
  Speaker 6: Some of the coaching stuff that has gone Awrye. They're
• 10:53
  Speaker 6: not going to be an easy out, so that division,
• 10:57
  Speaker 6: I think is much tougher, which might make the path
• 11:00
  Speaker 6: a little more difficult for the Chiefs, who are I
• 11:02
  Speaker 6: think a worse team than the Ravens, but the Vodomart
• 11:06
  Speaker 6: to get healthy. But I don't think it's a must
• 11:07
  Speaker 6: win for either. But you don't want to be one
• 11:11
  Speaker 6: and three. It's not you don't have worm Ferrari, you
• 11:13
  Speaker 6: don't your margin for Eric. It's much thinner, like if
• 11:15
  Speaker 6: you have injuries, and like you can't it'll every game
• 11:18
  Speaker 6: then becomes even more critical.
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: I actually gave out in August on my other show
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: casey to miss the playoffs, uh, and people called me
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: a dei higher and stupid, and I have all of
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: their comments saved, locked and loaded, ready for that to happen.
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: I do kind of think it's a must win of
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: for Kansas City just because their divisions a lot tougher.
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: Like Stucky said, I think Baltimore is going to be fine.
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: That division is not as strong, in my opinion, as
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: it has been in recent years. I do think that
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: they'll be okay even if they lose this game, but
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: it's borderline must win for the Chiefs.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it does feel like their back is up against it.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: And I originally when this line came out, and even
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: before or we saw the Lions run up and down
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: the field on the Ravens, it felt like this is
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: going to be a chief spot home Underdog, Patrick Mahomes,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Andy Reid, all of those things that we've said one
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: hundred times already. I just can't pull the trigger on it.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: I don't trust this Chiefs team enough. The way that
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: they're currently composed, and and the fact that the Ravens
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: got run out of the building makes this feel like,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: you know, almost a Ravens spot.
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: I just the Ravens are a far better team.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Derreck Henry has fumble issues, yes, but can the Chiefs
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: offensively keep up with Baltimore? I just don't think that
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: they can. So I think I'm gonna sit on the
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: sidelines for that game, and.
• 12:39
  Speaker 6: It's okay to pass. You're going to get the best
• 12:40
  Speaker 6: effort of both both staffs. Both like it's I do
• 12:44
  Speaker 6: think it's an elimination for the one seed. Both teams
• 12:47
  Speaker 6: are already behind the eight ball, especially with the Ravens
• 12:49
  Speaker 6: who already lost to the Bills, who have an easy schedule,
• 12:51
  Speaker 6: easy division, but either one of these teams starts one
• 12:54
  Speaker 6: and three, you can pretty much kiss home field advantage
• 13:00
  Speaker 6: through out the playoffs goodbye, which is obviously ubercritical in
• 13:02
  Speaker 6: the AFC.
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: I'm all over the Ravens this week.
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: So you're all in on Baltimore?
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I thinks for you, Yeah, I think this is
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: Baltimore spot. We talked about it the other day. I
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: figured you guys would be all in on once again
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: the Patrick Mahomes dog at home angle.
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: But I think that this is a great spot for Baltimore.
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: And do I want to play in Kansas City against
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes when he really needs win, No, absolutely not.
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: But the Baltimore offense, I don't see Dereck Henry fumbling
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: this week. Their offense is lights out. Obviously their defense
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: can make some improvements. But the thing is is that
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs, they're not healthy. They don't have the weapons
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: to keep up with them right now. I get the
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: home field advantage thing, the Patrick Mahomes angle, all of it,
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: but Baltimore is the best team in the league right
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: now in my opinion. When everybody plays to their strengths,
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: plays to what they're capable of, and I just don't
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: see them coming off of the schedule that they've had
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: and losing this game.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: Where are we at on Metabouque because that was huge
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: on Monday Night. I don't think that the Chiefs are
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: good enough running the football, but Checko has been terrible,
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Kareem Hunt's been bad. I don't think they're good enough
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: to take advantage of that absence, but it would still
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: be big because if the Chiefs can run, then I
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: would feel a whole lot better about backing them. I'm
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: gonna lay off of the game. But where are we
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: at in terms of the middle of that defense? Stuckey,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: We don't.
• 14:19
  Speaker 6: The whole d line is hurt so and we don't
• 14:20
  Speaker 6: know the ominous updates from Harbo who said he's out
• 14:23
  Speaker 6: this week. He doesn't know, so people are People in
• 14:28
  Speaker 6: Baltimore are thinking that it could be a long term thing,
• 14:31
  Speaker 6: so that might have to be addressed with a signing
• 14:33
  Speaker 6: or a trade.
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: So we'll see TVD.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Update on the quarterbacks. Some of the real line movers
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: out there. Jackson Dart is going to get the start
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: ahead of Russell Wilson.
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: In New York.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: They take on the undefeated Chargers on Sunday. I want
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: to bet the Giants here. I'll save my reasoning for
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: the back end of the episode, because they're one that
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: I'm going to pitch to you guys. The most heavily
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: bet games this week so far. Of course, one of
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: the them is going to be this one. I think
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: anytime the Giants are involved, that's going to be the case.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: But John Harball seems to be getting a lot of
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: action one of the most heavily big games Chargers, Giants.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: Everybody seems to be in on Harball. Any hesitation backing
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: the rook here for you, Kendra.
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: It almost got to the window on this game just
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: because of Harbaugh against rookie quarterbacks. But with that combined
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: with I think that the locker room really is going
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: to rally behind Jackson. I think that the Giants defense
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: has played really well in the last couple of weeks.
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: I think that that's the saving grace of that team.
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: Russ really really screwed them over last week. It seems
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: like they were getting stops getting off the field that
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: whole bit, giving them opportunities to go ahead. I think
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: that this rallies that team a little bit. Numbers two big,
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: don't love the harball against rookie quarterback angle so close
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: to getting there for me. If this line moved a
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: little bit more, potentially, I just I don't think I
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: can touch it. I was telling Gifford before we got.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: On the show.
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: The spreads this week are just way, way, way too huge.
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: Not my favorite betting week. This everything feels yucky, way
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: too big.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: I'm not having a good time.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: We've seen a lot of line moves as well. One
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: of the things to monitor with that Giants game is
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: Malik Neighbors did not practice. I don't know how serious
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: that issue is, but if he doesn't play, that would
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: be huge. Andrew Thomas has been in and out of
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: the lineup, he was limited, and the Giants still have
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: kicker issues as well, So there are reasons to be
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: concerned outside of the Giants just not being overall a
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: good football team. But it does seem like if you
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: end up on the Chargers, just know public Joe over
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: here if you do that, because the public's going to
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: be all over the La Chargers. Carson Wentz undefeated overseas,
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: He's won to oh. He takes on Aaron Rodgers, who
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: has never won a game across the pond zero and
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: two for him.
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: Are we sitting this one out? This has been all
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: Vikings money so far. Stucky.
• 16:52
  Speaker 6: Yeah, it regards to the Giants, I highlight the Giants.
• 16:54
  Speaker 6: I'm waiting on the neighbors news. Thomas is just resting.
• 16:56
  Speaker 6: I think he'll be a full go. He looked great
• 16:58
  Speaker 6: in the first half. He's just on a snap count.
• 17:01
  Speaker 6: The Charters have three offensive linemen or DMPs yesterday in
• 17:05
  Speaker 6: practice that could potentially ruin the game for them.
• 17:08
  Speaker 5: But I'm waiting.
• 17:09
  Speaker 6: It's at six and a half. I'm going to see
• 17:11
  Speaker 6: if a seven pops want monitor the injury reports, watch
• 17:14
  Speaker 6: the market, But I think I will be on the Giants.
• 17:16
  Speaker 6: Winless teams as dogs in this range of historically performed
• 17:18
  Speaker 6: really well. Now, a lot of variants in this game
• 17:20
  Speaker 6: because we don't know we're gonna get from Dark, but
• 17:22
  Speaker 6: it's gonna be better than Russ and they're gonna have
• 17:24
  Speaker 6: at least had a kicker. They signed young, could all
• 17:26
  Speaker 6: have a kicker that's healthy. They didn't have a kicker
• 17:27
  Speaker 6: against the Chiefs cost them multiple scores. So yeah, I
• 17:32
  Speaker 6: think the uncertainty with Dark too, like the Charters don't
• 17:34
  Speaker 6: know what they're gonna get like how much we're kind
• 17:36
  Speaker 6: of read options and what's everything going to look like?
• 17:38
  Speaker 6: So that could work in the giants favor. So yeah,
• 17:41
  Speaker 6: with the Chargers offensive line injuries, they might not be
• 17:44
  Speaker 6: able to block New York and they really crumbled their
• 17:46
  Speaker 6: offense last week after those guys went out against Denver,
• 17:49
  Speaker 6: and the Giants have a similar front. In regards to
• 17:51
  Speaker 6: the Vikings, I did play the Vikings. I think here, Look,
• 17:57
  Speaker 6: the Vikings are much healthier. They should get their offensive
• 18:00
  Speaker 6: line except for Jackson at guard back healthy. They're gonna
• 18:02
  Speaker 6: get Addison back Wentz I think is an upgrade over
• 18:05
  Speaker 6: McCarthy as I alluded to last week. And then defensively,
• 18:09
  Speaker 6: they're fairly healthy. The Steelers are not dealing with a
• 18:11
  Speaker 6: lot of injuries. The Steelers should be owen three, like really,
• 18:15
  Speaker 6: they should be owing three, and this line would be
• 18:16
  Speaker 6: up over a field goal. Here's here's how I think
• 18:19
  Speaker 6: it plays out. Steelers have a very predictable single high defense,
• 18:24
  Speaker 6: like they're running that like sixty sixty five seventy percent
• 18:27
  Speaker 6: of the time. That's not what you don't want to
• 18:30
  Speaker 6: have a predictible offense when you're going up against O'Connell
• 18:32
  Speaker 6: and those weapons and injuries on your defense. So and
• 18:34
  Speaker 6: I think they'll be able to run the ball too.
• 18:36
  Speaker 6: So I think the Bikers is going to move the ball.
• 18:39
  Speaker 6: The Steelers can't run it, they can't protect, and they're
• 18:42
  Speaker 6: going up against Brian Flores. They're going to be in
• 18:44
  Speaker 6: known passing situations. And Aaron Rodger has been the worst
• 18:46
  Speaker 6: quarterback in the league against pressure this season. I think
• 18:48
  Speaker 6: he's six of twenty two with three interceptions. It's been
• 18:52
  Speaker 6: horrendous and it's not like there's no recourse you can't move,
• 18:57
  Speaker 6: So I don't know what they're going to do. I
• 18:59
  Speaker 6: think Rogers get suffocated under the pressure. Vikings, even with Wentz,
• 19:04
  Speaker 6: were able to move the ball. I'll take the Vikings
• 19:07
  Speaker 6: it under a field goal.
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: I kind of like the Steelers here.
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: No money from me yet, but I was really thinking
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: about it this morning. I like the mic I like
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: the Tomlin as a dog situation.
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: I always like that angle.
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: But my other thing is that Carson Wentz will fumble
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: the ball if they have any opportunity to recover a
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: fumble from him. I think that that bodes well for
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: the Steelers. But I did learn something interesting this morning.
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: I guess you remember, guys, how I was talking about
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: my angle that whatever team gets there first is who
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: I will back. I learned today that there's a new
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: rule in twenty twenty five with the NFL where both
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: teams have to arrive on the same day for games overseas.
• 19:43
  Speaker 5: Interesting, I know.
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: I hate that. I hate that so much.
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: Like there's no like when they go West coast to
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: East coast, there's no day that you have to get there.
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: I hate that so much because I heard that the
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: Steelers wanted to go early and the Vikings wanted to
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: stay with and go Thursday, and they settled both on
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: going Thursday.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: Maybe this is why they've realized that there's some competitive
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: advantage to it, so the NFL has to squash that out.
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: Hey but yeah, but like that's like the entirety of
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: the NFL is having some sort of competitive advantage when
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: you can get it. What's preventing the Vikings from leaving
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: earlier than the Stealers Absolutely nothing.
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: Absolutely nothing.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: By the way, Jordan Addison is back this week. He's
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: off suspension for the Minnesota Vikings, so they get a
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: little more firepower on offense.
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: I'll be Vikings or pass.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: For me the Unknowns this week, Jayden Daniels says that
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: he feels fine, but he still needs to be cleared
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: by team doctors.
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: He's dealing with that knee sprain.
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: Brock Purty still limited in practice, Mac Jones is limited. Also,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: if I end up, I'm still sitting on this forty
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: nine Ers minus three and a half with my plant
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: the flag bet from Tuesday's episode. If I get Adrian Martinez,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: I am going to throw up. So hopefully that does
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: not happen. So it's still turf to a variant situation
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: for Party. Hopefully he plays.
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: And then just a Fortynineers podcast yesterday and they think
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: that Rock Party will play all right.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: Like to hear that the It's interesting with that Commander's
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: Falcons game, Stucky, you were when we were on Sunday's
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: recap show. I was, I was, I was throwing the
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: falcons in bet jail. You said, listen, this is the
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: NFL might have to just back the Falcons. They were
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: plus three on Sunday night. They are plus one and
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: a half. Now we've seen some of the most significant
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: line moves this week have been in that game. In particular,
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: did you grab the three early, you feel good with
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: where you're at, and even even still, we don't know
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: what's going on with Jayden Daniels, but the line would
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: dictate that it looks like he's not gonna play.
• 21:47
  Speaker 6: No, I mean, this is what I would make it
• 21:48
  Speaker 6: with Daniels. That's a plus three is a horrible line
• 21:50
  Speaker 6: in my opinion. It was just an overreaction to what
• 21:52
  Speaker 6: we just saw with the Falcons. And it's not like
• 21:55
  Speaker 6: the Commanders have been great. Uh Like they got a
• 21:59
  Speaker 6: bunch of special teams plays last week, they were dominated
• 22:01
  Speaker 6: by the Packers and they beat Russell Wilson in Week one.
• 22:04
  Speaker 6: I think this team is overrated coming into the year
• 22:06
  Speaker 6: due for some massive aggression on laid downs. So yeah,
• 22:09
  Speaker 6: I grabbed the three first bet I made this week.
• 22:13
  Speaker 6: Feel good about it. I'd still play the Falcons at
• 22:15
  Speaker 6: plus one and a half. There are and there are
• 22:17
  Speaker 6: other injuries too. With the Commanders. You got McLaurin, They
• 22:20
  Speaker 6: have d backs that are hurt. They have other wide
• 22:24
  Speaker 6: receivers that.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: Are Clauren's getting a second evaluation.
• 22:28
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I assume. I assume he's going to be out.
• 22:30
  Speaker 6: So I love, love, love love the Falcons here. This
• 22:35
  Speaker 6: is also fits a Let me pull up my sheet here,
• 22:45
  Speaker 6: this fits like three different things that I love. Falcons
• 22:50
  Speaker 6: off a shutout loss, Dogs off a shutout loss forty six,
• 22:53
  Speaker 6: twenty nine and three against the spread sixty one percent,
• 22:55
  Speaker 6: Dogs off a thirty plus point loss one fifteen, seventy
• 22:59
  Speaker 6: seven and eight against the spread sixty percent. You're talking
• 23:02
  Speaker 6: about big samplesizes over twenty five years sixty plus percent.
• 23:06
  Speaker 6: Why is that nobody look like what you guys were
• 23:08
  Speaker 6: saying on Sunday. You wanted to put him in bet jail.
• 23:09
  Speaker 6: You didn't want to bet them. Nobody wants to bet
• 23:11
  Speaker 6: the team that they just saw get shut out or
• 23:13
  Speaker 6: lose by thirty. But it's the NFL teams are never
• 23:16
  Speaker 6: as bad or as good as they look. The other
• 23:18
  Speaker 6: teams that fit those thirty plus point losses the Bengals,
• 23:22
  Speaker 6: who I did bet on Monday night at over at
• 23:24
  Speaker 6: seven and a half, and the Saints, who I probably
• 23:27
  Speaker 6: will bet at fifteen and a half. I think it's
• 23:30
  Speaker 6: just too many. The Saints were actually not that bad
• 23:32
  Speaker 6: on a down the down basis. They were just killed
• 23:34
  Speaker 6: by special teams. But yeah, with all the injuries down
• 23:37
  Speaker 6: the commanders across the board against the Falcons, who I
• 23:42
  Speaker 6: like their defensive improvements. I expect Penis to bounce back.
• 23:45
  Speaker 6: I know he was awful last week, but I like Atlanta.
• 23:49
  Speaker 6: I mean, Penix was good enough in Minnesota against that
• 23:52
  Speaker 6: defense to get the win, and they should be able
• 23:54
  Speaker 6: to run on Washington. And even if Daniels plays, I
• 23:57
  Speaker 6: doubt it's going to be one hundred percent. He's not
• 23:58
  Speaker 6: going to be as effective with his legs. So yeah,
• 24:01
  Speaker 6: give me Atlanta at home all day.
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is just this is just one of
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: those that you're probably right, and yet when you watch
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: these teams play, and the Commanders have looked pretty buttoned
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: up so far this season outside of what the Packers
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: were able to do to them defensively, but this Falcons
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: team looks like a wreck.
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: You're crazy, for real, so crazy the week before the
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: week book.
• 24:28
  Speaker 5: They should have beat the Bucks in Week one and then.
• 24:30
  Speaker 6: Okay, they want at Minnesota, right, Nay McCarthy was a disaster.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, people in Minnesota are saying, hey, maybe Carson
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: went to give their defense.
• 24:42
  Speaker 6: Minnesota's defense wasn't isn't like you you're just going off
• 24:47
  Speaker 6: of You're going off of one single data point, Like
• 24:50
  Speaker 6: if we went. That's the same thing of why no
• 24:53
  Speaker 6: one wanted to bet the Dolphins last week except me
• 24:56
  Speaker 6: and a couple of others, Like, just because the Dolphins
• 24:57
  Speaker 6: look so.
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: Bad, your Dolphins play encouraged you in that. Don't don't
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: love me.
• 25:02
  Speaker 5: You know, I'm saying how people overreact all this.
• 25:04
  Speaker 6: I'm not saying every single person, but I mean, if
• 25:07
  Speaker 6: you just went based on week, I mean, this happens
• 25:11
  Speaker 6: every year in weeks three and four. But everyone known
• 25:15
  Speaker 6: wanted a bet the Browns last week because they lost
• 25:16
  Speaker 6: by twenty five to the Ravens. But if you really
• 25:19
  Speaker 6: watch that game, they weren't that bad. It was like
• 25:20
  Speaker 6: it was really just fluky stuff.
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: I think you're right, I just it's so I can't
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: get there. I think you're right, I just I can't
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: do it.
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: Absolutely who wanted.
• 25:29
  Speaker 5: About Everyone was betting the Cowboys like they knew the
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: final score. Last week, the Bears.
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: I bet the Bears. Lest I know.
• 25:35
  Speaker 5: I'm just giving you examples of all this.
• 25:37
  Speaker 6: The Bears have looked unbettable, like you couldn't play. The
• 25:42
  Speaker 6: Falcons looked like that last week too, But it's one
• 25:44
  Speaker 6: week in the NFL like that.
• 25:45
  Speaker 5: That's that's just how it works in this game.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: But it works both ways because some things you don't
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: want to overreact to and some things you should react
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: to a good example of that would be to this point,
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: the Indianapolis Colts. It just felt like, Okay, after we
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: one they blow out the Dolphins, Well, what does that
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: really mean? Well, they're sitting at three and oh against
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: the spread now, So if you had properly reacted to that,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: you'd be cashing in on Indianapolis. I think sometimes with
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: the limited sample size, you have to pick and choose
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: what are you going to react to and what are
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: you not going to react to? And the Falcons are
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: one of those. The way that they have looked, I
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: think I'm willing to react to the point where I'm
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: just not willing to bet them.
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: I have a solution, That's where That's where I'm at
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: with that.
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: I have a solution.
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: If stuck he wins this bet this week, you have
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: to bet the Falcons next week?
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: Who do they play?
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: They're in jail?
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: Are they are they on the Falcons on the by
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: next week?
• 26:47
  Speaker 5: Do they have an early buye see that?
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: I think Week six you have to bet the Falcons
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: no matter what if he wins this, they're not, they're
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: in bet jail. But if not, they're in bet jail
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: home against the Bills.
• 27:03
  Speaker 5: Yes, off the mine. That's a good shot, that's a
• 27:05
  Speaker 5: good spot too.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: All Right, I'll say this, I'll go I'll go all
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: in with this. And I still need to buy the
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: shirt after losing the Dolphins bet head to head with Stuggy.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: But if the Falcons cover the spread, they don't even
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: need to win.
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: But we're talking about a thin margin here.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: If they just cover the spread, I will I will
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: place a half unit bet on the Atlanta Falcons money
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: line against the Buffalo Bills.
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: Yes, this is the solution.
• 27:31
  Speaker 5: And by the way, you mentioned the Colts.
• 27:33
  Speaker 6: Yes, there's always one or two exceptions to the rule
• 27:36
  Speaker 6: where a team is gonna be significantly better and they're
• 27:40
  Speaker 6: gonna outperform the market. But for the most part, in general,
• 27:45
  Speaker 6: in weeks three, four, or five, you're better off, not
• 27:48
  Speaker 6: a reacting just as a blanket statement, because are you
• 27:50
  Speaker 6: gonna be able to pick the right ones? If you are,
• 27:53
  Speaker 6: you can make millions of dollars. But I think in general,
• 27:57
  Speaker 6: just this is an overarching theme. When you're better in
• 28:00
  Speaker 6: the NFL, don't overreact to one week. And that's why
• 28:02
  Speaker 6: these teams who lose by thirty plus have hit on
• 28:05
  Speaker 6: the close sixty one percent against the spread over a
• 28:09
  Speaker 6: thirty year period because no one wants to bet them.
• 28:13
  Speaker 6: Lines usually inflated the next week. So and it's not
• 28:17
  Speaker 6: always some you don't want to bet these, bet all
• 28:19
  Speaker 6: of them blindly. But in this case, I'm on the Falcons,
• 28:22
  Speaker 6: especially when you throw in the commander's injuries.
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: I like you.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: Like you said, I think if you if you're gonna
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: blanket it and just say okay, in general, we're not
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: going to overreact, then you almost have you put yourself
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: in a position where you have to bet all of
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: those teams in order to hit the percentages. So you
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: have to be on the Falcons, the Saints, and the Bengals.
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: I just I am well then, I mean.
• 28:51
  Speaker 6: I just I sometimes if they depending on the matchups,
• 28:53
  Speaker 6: depending on what I may I project the number as well.
• 28:56
  Speaker 5: There's other things that go into it. But I will
• 28:59
  Speaker 5: be on all three this uh Wolf this weekend.
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: I respect that.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: Like if you're gonna go if you're gonna go all
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: in exactly, if you're gonna go all in with the
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: let's not overreact. Then you have to blanket it. You
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: gotta you gotta cover the board with the teams that
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: we would overreact to. And then in that sense, the
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: percentages will work in your favor.
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: I'm not willing I guarantee too.
• 29:21
  Speaker 6: They could easily go on three again. It's it's it's
• 29:23
  Speaker 6: small sample sizes. But that's that's kind of my philosophy.
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 29:27
  Speaker 5: When bet in the NFL. So I'm now when we
• 29:29
  Speaker 5: get to this parlay, I don't even know when you
• 29:31
  Speaker 5: guys are gonna choose. Uh?
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: Are we a month into this season? I'm freaking out.
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: I can't believe next week is week five.
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: That is very strange, But it is time for the
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: artist formerly known as the Three Musketeers parlay took a
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: couple of l's from the and the overlords in action
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: have said that the Three Musketeers have to go six
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: feet under. So what are we calling this thing? We
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: have three options right now. We'll allow some right in
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: candidates for the listeners out there, this is your show.
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: At the end of the day.
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: Two kings and a Queen is one option, cash or
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: trash or the trifecta ticket for the three leg parlay
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: do you have early votes.
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: By the way, guys, I like cash or trash.
• 30:12
  Speaker 5: Two Kings and a Queen would be my vote for now,
• 30:14
  Speaker 5: but I'm gonna think on it.
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: I'll sit this out.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna let the listeners decide what we end up with.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: So this is where we nominate two plays each see
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: if we can find some general consensus on the board
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: and eventually land on our team built parlay. I'll get
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: us started since I took the I had the lone
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: dub last week with the Chicago Bears, a team that
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: I did not have in bet jail. I'm gonna tee
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: up the Colts Rams over forty nine and a half
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: or the Giants plus six and a half. So the
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: reasoning for the over for me is one thing I
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: can trust on both sides of these teams. I think
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: the Colts might be a fraud, but I don't really
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: want to bet against them. And I also think the
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: Rams could be mentally broken after the way that they
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: they just melted down down the stretch up nineteen against
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: the Philadelphia Eagles. So what can I trust in this game?
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: It's the offenses. Pokinaku has been the best wide receiver
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has been the best running
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: back in the NFL.
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: In THEA just kiss Amen ra Well.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, statistically, Puka's been the guy. He is the
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: most yards in the league. But really this comes down
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: to the Colts defense. I think if the Colts are fraudulent,
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: Danny Dimes is efficient, Jonathan Taylor is a good back,
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: they have a good offensive line. I don't think any
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: of that is fraudy. But the Colts rank dead last
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. It's stopping teams from converting first downs.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: They also have zero stops in the red zone. That's
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: not gonna bode well on the road against the Sean
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: McVay let offense. So I think a lot of points
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: are gonna be scored in this game. I go over
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: forty nine.
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: And a half.
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna go the over, I like.
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: I think I like that better even though I threw
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: an option out in this game. I agree with you
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: about the points scoring, and I just I can't.
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: I can't get on the Giants. I can't get on
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: the Giants. I can't do it. I need they might
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: be in bet yill for me.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: See this is where I like a good gross play too, Stucky,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Giants.
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: Plus six and a half is my other one.
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: Rookie making his first start in the NFL against a
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: Jim Harball not been profitable Jim Harball four to zero
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: against the spread and games where he's going up against
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: the rookie quarterback since joining the Chargers. Thank you Evan
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: Abrams for that one. But betting the Chargers just feels
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: way too easy here. Three to zero against the spread.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: They don't have the travel advantage ten am body clock
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: game for them, and I think day Bole's smart enough
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: to know let's dial back the offense. Let's run it
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: with scataboo, Let's get easy first downs with Jackson Dart
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: and his legs, and perhaps even pull an upset against
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: the team that has performed over expectation three weeks in
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: a row in the LA Chargers. So those are the
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: two options, Stucky, where's your where's your vote?
• 32:59
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna go.
• 33:01
  Speaker 6: I still can't figure out the Colts, Like they're the
• 33:03
  Speaker 6: one team that I'm like, all right, hit pause on.
• 33:06
  Speaker 6: But the Colts aren't fast, They're slow. The Rams are
• 33:09
  Speaker 6: so McVeigh so conservative at times, and the Rams have
• 33:12
  Speaker 6: this hidden advantage with their kickoffs. They're like pinning teams
• 33:18
  Speaker 6: down that they're starting within like the at the fifteen
• 33:20
  Speaker 6: yard line. They're doing these like knuckleball line drives. The
• 33:23
  Speaker 6: Eagles could not figure it out by starting field position
• 33:27
  Speaker 6: like the worst in the league is the forty nine
• 33:29
  Speaker 6: ers teams are starting. Of course, the forty nine special
• 33:31
  Speaker 6: team is a joke. Teams are starting at like the
• 33:33
  Speaker 6: thirty four yard line on average. The team against the
• 33:36
  Speaker 6: Rams teams are starting at like the twenty the fourteen
• 33:38
  Speaker 6: yard difference, so longer fields.
• 33:42
  Speaker 5: Rams.
• 33:43
  Speaker 6: So I can't get there because I still have a
• 33:45
  Speaker 6: good feal on the Colts, although Kenny Moore's out could
• 33:47
  Speaker 6: be a big loss for the Colts defense.
• 33:49
  Speaker 5: So I'm going to go with the Giants.
• 33:52
  Speaker 6: Because I'm going to be betting them myself, and I
• 33:55
  Speaker 6: think that the offensive line injuries for the Chargers are major.
• 33:58
  Speaker 6: I remember they already lost their right tackle for Sean
• 34:00
  Speaker 6: Slater or they're left tackle, and then all had to
• 34:03
  Speaker 6: move over before the year, and it was a disaster
• 34:05
  Speaker 6: last week and three of those guys didn't practice.
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: So I'm gonna go with the Giants. So we need our.
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: Jesus Christ didn't get raptureds to tie.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: Break, mister Evan, who you got Colts Rams over giants
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: plus six and a half.
• 34:24
  Speaker 7: I'll take the giants. And I've been waiting for seven,
• 34:27
  Speaker 7: So there's the reason I haven't gotten there.
• 34:28
  Speaker 5: And I figured saying, that's what I'm waiting for you
• 34:30
  Speaker 5: to come in.
• 34:31
  Speaker 7: But I think I think the Rams and Giants are
• 34:34
  Speaker 7: the right sides. I just think it depends on the number.
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: I feel like that episode of Peppa Pig where his
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: friend calls him and he's like, can you whistle? And
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: he finds out he can't whistle and he just hangs
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: up the phone.
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: Are we supposed to remember episodes of Peppa Pig.
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: I've never heard of that.
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: Oh my god, you better get rid of you're about
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: to be a dad. Papa Pig is still a thing?
• 34:57
  Speaker 5: Is it a cartoon?
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah? It's like a really really teeny like tiny kids shell.
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: It's for like five year olds.
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's still you will be I I guarantee in
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: three years you will be well rehearsed in Papa Peg.
• 35:10
  Speaker 5: Is it like songs and stuff?
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: Is that it's just like a little kids show about
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: like English, Like they're British pigs and it's it's kind
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: of cute.
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: I like it somehow I've avoided Pepa Pig.
• 35:19
  Speaker 5: What was your favorite show growing up as a little kid.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: The Cartoon Network was so popular when I was little,
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: Johnny Bravo, Zooms, the Scooby Doo was a.
• 35:28
  Speaker 6: Big Struggrats was probably mine when I was really young.
• 35:33
  Speaker 5: Are you too old for Prougrats, Kendra?
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: I'm too young for Yeah?
• 35:37
  Speaker 5: I too young?
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, rugrats are like on their way out, and I.
• 35:42
  Speaker 6: Was all right, So I'll give my two are the
• 35:46
  Speaker 6: falcons who already gave, and I'll also give what are
• 35:52
  Speaker 6: my other options?
• 35:52
  Speaker 5: Here? I'll tell you what I'm gonna play or played?
• 35:54
  Speaker 5: I agree with you.
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: Put the jags in the notes.
• 35:56
  Speaker 5: Yeah, we're gonna get through the jags. Uh.
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: Sulky and I are in. We are.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: We are like two rams butting heads right now.
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: No, this is genuinely when you're a little kid and
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: your parents are arguing in the kitchen and you're just
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: sitting there trying to eat your mac and cheese and
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: peace and you're.
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: Not supposed to hear them fighting. This is literally what
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: I feel like right now. My parents are fighting in
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: the kitchen.
• 36:23
  Speaker 5: You don't like these, I'll give three options. I already
• 36:25
  Speaker 5: mentioned the Falcons. I won't make you. I won't make you,
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: guys consider the Saints.
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: I can consider the Saints, and.
• 36:34
  Speaker 5: People bet the Saints Falcons. Let's see the other two
• 36:39
  Speaker 5: I'll put out throw out. There are the Jags, the
• 36:46
  Speaker 5: forty nine ers.
• 36:47
  Speaker 6: Injuries are devastating, and even if pretty plays, I don't
• 36:50
  Speaker 6: think it's gonna be fully healthy. I don't know if
• 36:51
  Speaker 6: it's gona be able to drive. And they have the
• 36:52
  Speaker 6: Rams on Thursday night, so and they're already three and oh,
• 36:56
  Speaker 6: so they might just be cautious with some of their injuries. Uh,
• 37:00
  Speaker 6: there's injuries at wide receiver, on defense, the offensive line,
• 37:04
  Speaker 6: both quarterbacks are hurt, and with a divisional game on Thursday,
• 37:08
  Speaker 6: they might go super considerable. I like what I've seen
• 37:10
  Speaker 6: from from the Jags, and they're much better shape health wise.
• 37:13
  Speaker 6: They just need to stop dropping balls. But there's so
• 37:17
  Speaker 6: much better coached takes, their offensive scheme under Liam Cohen,
• 37:20
  Speaker 6: their defensive structure, and what the coverages they're running on
• 37:23
  Speaker 6: the back end instead of just running man with personnelity,
• 37:26
  Speaker 6: you don't have to run man like they did.
• 37:28
  Speaker 5: All last year.
• 37:28
  Speaker 6: So Jags at over a field goal with all the
• 37:31
  Speaker 6: San Fran injury uncertainty, and then I'll throw out the Pats.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: It's five and a half though, that's crazy.
• 37:37
  Speaker 6: Pats minus five and a half. I don't, I don't.
• 37:39
  Speaker 6: The Panthers not gonna be able to move the ball,
• 37:40
  Speaker 6: like and Christian Zalas should be back. That's and the
• 37:45
  Speaker 6: Pats moving the ball up and down the field. They
• 37:47
  Speaker 6: should have won last week. Panthers, by the way, off
• 37:51
  Speaker 6: of a shutout win. Dogs off a shutout win historically
• 37:55
  Speaker 6: thirty one percent against the spread. Like, think about your
• 37:58
  Speaker 6: reaction just now, who wants to you take? The Panthers
• 38:01
  Speaker 6: are getting five and out, they just want thirty nothing. Well,
• 38:03
  Speaker 6: historically Dogs after a shutout win thirty thirty one and
• 38:07
  Speaker 6: a half percent, So I'll throw them out. They're gonna
• 38:10
  Speaker 6: move the ball on this Panthers defense, and I think
• 38:13
  Speaker 6: the Panthers are They're going to lose the line of scrimmage.
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: Mac Millan also hurt. Yeah, Patriots, I'm taking the Falcons.
• 38:21
  Speaker 5: Jags and Falcons Falcons.
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: Kramitz.
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: I mean you know that, just morally, I can't.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: I would rather and I'm i took a sprinkle in
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: the Panthers money line just in case what happened last
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: week was real. If that's the case, then they'll hang
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: with New England and at least be in it at
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: the end of the game. At two to one odds.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: I felt like that was a bit that I had
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: to at least sprinkle on. The Panthers are dealing with
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: a load of injuries with wide receivers as well, and
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: they were dealing with that coming into the season.
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: They might not be.
• 38:51
  Speaker 5: Starters as well.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Panthers plus the points definitely not the
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: right side. I don't think the Patriots are worthy favorites
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: of that sort of margin, but I'm not I'm already
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: on the forty nine ers. I think I would say
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: the Patriots would be my vote. Evan, you might have
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: to break the time, Okay, yep.
• 39:10
  Speaker 5: Ye, Patriots and Falcons.
• 39:15
  Speaker 7: Is the choice between Patriots and Falcons. I thought we
• 39:17
  Speaker 7: were talking Jaguars.
• 39:18
  Speaker 6: Well, Jaguars are in there too, and if you if
• 39:20
  Speaker 6: you they didn't get any votes, if you picked the Jags,
• 39:22
  Speaker 6: and I'd break the tie on my own.
• 39:24
  Speaker 7: I love the Jags At three and a half, that
• 39:26
  Speaker 7: would be the I would touch Carolina at six. Aside
• 39:29
  Speaker 7: from that, I kind of agree with both of you.
• 39:31
  Speaker 7: I wouldn't touch Carolina or New England. That's a past spot.
• 39:34
  Speaker 7: I need to learn more about both of those teams
• 39:36
  Speaker 7: to make the bat. I think the Jaguars BET's great.
• 39:38
  Speaker 5: All right, so especially Kendra's gonna be there.
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: So I feel like you guys had like a pre
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: show meeting where you were like, let's fuck with Kendra
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: this week because she's gonna be there.
• 39:47
  Speaker 5: Yeah, we have to go to the Jags, all right,
• 39:48
  Speaker 5: So we got Jags and Giants.
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: I can do this. I can't even put this in
• 39:53
  Speaker 4: the app. What's my first bet this week was the
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: forty nine ers?
• 39:57
  Speaker 5: Well, you can make up for the loser.
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: Now I'm having a heart attack.
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: My cat.
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: My cat is so upset. She just ran over my equipment.
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: My dog just jumped into snuggling my ghost pillow.
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: Now, all right, so what.
• 40:11
  Speaker 5: You got, Bendor? What are your choices you're bringing?
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: All right?
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: I am bringing the Rams to cover or the Ravens
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: to cover. I'm putting a gun to both of your head.
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: It seems like Evan already gave his opinion in this.
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: I think that this is probably easy for both of you.
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: I was just feeling he hustledly. You guys are going
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: the Rams, I figure, heamn, this is.
• 40:32
  Speaker 5: I'm a Ravens fan. I usually have a good read
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: on them.
• 40:35
  Speaker 6: I can't go to the Ravens with all their injuries,
• 40:38
  Speaker 6: so for me, yeah, I mean, I wish it was three,
• 40:42
  Speaker 6: and if the three I will bet it. But I
• 40:46
  Speaker 6: do like especially with the Kenny Moore injury, and.
• 40:52
  Speaker 5: This is so good.
• 40:54
  Speaker 6: Yeah, give me the Rams was great.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: The fact that I hate this parlay so much probably
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: means it's gonna come home, So I'll take I'll take
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: the Rams as my vote minus three and a half.
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: This is incredible, My Rams, Jags, and Giants. I'm telling you,
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: guys my Sunday video for Socials after I have a
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: couple of beers. If they lose this game or win,
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: this game is going to be an absolute old timer.
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: I might get beat up by a forty nine Ers fan.
• 41:30
  Speaker 5: I can't wait.
• 41:31
  Speaker 6: I can't wait to watch those Yeah, be careful the
• 41:33
  Speaker 6: forty nine Ers fans can be I.
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: Know a forty nine Ers fan pulled my hair in
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: Jacksonville at the game last time.
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: They played. Literally a grown ass man pulled my hair.
• 41:42
  Speaker 6: At least it's not like a dog. It's the jag,
• 41:44
  Speaker 6: so it's at least it's not like a Dodgers Giants gamer.
• 41:49
  Speaker 6: By the way, we didn't mention even the luck the
• 41:50
  Speaker 6: luck the luck matchup of the week. Check out Nikiffin's
• 41:53
  Speaker 6: luck rankings on the action of our gap the two
• 41:56
  Speaker 6: luckiest teams. I'm in the luck rankings. I'm the unluckiest one.
• 41:59
  Speaker 6: The two lucky teams in the league by far are
• 42:02
  Speaker 6: playing each other in the Eagles and the Bucks. And
• 42:05
  Speaker 6: I'm not just saying that it's a formula. They've been
• 42:09
  Speaker 6: extremely lucky every single week, and I faded them five
• 42:15
  Speaker 6: times already. Of course, the two luckiest teams. So and
• 42:18
  Speaker 6: I'm one and four and I almost run on the
• 42:20
  Speaker 6: game if they don't block it. The Jets don't block
• 42:22
  Speaker 6: that field goal, So those are the two luckiest teams.
• 42:27
  Speaker 6: A lot of injuries to monitor for the Bucks. I
• 42:29
  Speaker 6: got nothing there, but I just wanted to mention the
• 42:30
  Speaker 6: luck crankings. Make sure you check them out.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure, it's an invaluable resource. Chris Godwin might
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: be back for Tampa Bay. They need that because Mike
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: Evans is.
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: Out Tristan.
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and and Baker Mayfield, by the way, dealing with
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: the right bicep injury. That's us throwing arm. That's that
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: is definitely something to monitor. I don't think you should
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: touch that game until we get more information on Sunday.
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: All right, there we go. It's locked in.
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: We get the Rams minus three and a half, we
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: get the Eggs plus three and a half, we get
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: the Giants plus six and a half as.
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: Our newly named parlay.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: Keep it locked on all of the Action Network social
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: channels and we'll get your vote on what we.
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: Call this thing moving forward.
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it for today's episode special thanks to
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: the producers Gifford Gold and David Paine.
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: The Favorites War turn no show on Sunday night.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: We'll be back on Tuesday afternoon right here on the
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page when we talk NFL Week five, Kendra,
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: have fun in San Francisco, Stucky, good luck as we
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: go ahead to head this week. Thanks for tuning in.
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: We'll see you next time here on the Favorites Podcast.
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: It's Cassie's tickets.
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help is
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler