Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 7/14/26: Trump Says US Is Hormuz Guardian, Oil Crisis Looms, ICE Shootings In Maine And Texas

Transcript

7/14/26: Trump Says US Is Hormuz Guardian, Oil Crisis Looms, ICE Shootings In Maine And Texas · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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  Speaker 1: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. I have an
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Perystal?
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Indeed, we do increasingly looking like a forever war in Uran,
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: at least that's direction that the President suggests we are
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: heading entry to PARSI will join with his analysis. We've
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: also got the wild details of a regime change plot
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: pushed by Israel to install Akmedinajad as the president of Aro.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: This is so crazy, especially if you live through the
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Achma Dinajod era. We'll show you little bit of flashback
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: of Hotnet and I who used to talk about this
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: guy and also get trade to Parci's reaction to all
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: of that as well.
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: There is another ice killing.
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: This is the second in less than a week, this
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: one happening in Maine and sparking mass protest there outside
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: of Susan Collins's office. Hailey Stevens is running ads suggesting
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: she is backed by Obama when she certainly is not.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: And professional baseball player Bryce Harper is under fire for
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: a gambling a video that he made for a gambling addict.
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: Sagares is I on this one very closely.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this is Royling MLB Major League Baseball. I will
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: confess I know nothing about baseball, but I do know
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: a lot about gambling. And Bryce Harper is now the
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: face of a very very corrupt industry and problem he
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: himself may have to sue fan duel, but this gives
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: us great insight actually into how gambling companies keep people hooked.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: What absolute scum these people are, and surely I'm excited
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: to break that down. Thank you to everybody who's been
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  Speaker 1: a friend. But as Crystal said, let's go ahead and
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: start with the situation with Iran. It looks more and
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: more like the United States is now going to be
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: in a full blown forever war. Let's go ahead and
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: start with Donald Trump's truth Social post yesterday. We alluded
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: this up to a bit in our Ama at the
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: very end, Donald Trump on Truth Social the Horror Moves
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Strait is open and will remain open with or without Iran.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: We are resting reinstating the Iranian blockade, so named because
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: it is only stopping Iran ships or customers from entering
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: or leaving. All other countries will have fair and open
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: use of the strait. The USA will be from this
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: point forward known as the Guardian of the Hormuz Straight
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: and as such, and as a matter of fairness, we
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: will be reimbursed at the rate of twenty percent on
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: all cargo shipped for any and all costs necessary to
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: do the job of providing safety and security to this
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: very volatile section of the world. Obviously, the major top
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: line news there is Trump saying that we will be
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: reinstituting the blockade against Iran, but more importantly is actually
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: the charging of a toll on the Strait of Hormu's
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: cargo because he wants twenty percent, the Iranians only want one.
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: Yeahfing a better deal here.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: The biggest problem is how much this massively undermines the
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Secretary of State's position, the United Nations, everybody else who's
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: previously actually been on the side, not necessarily of the
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: blockade per se, but they're like, look, oh, we don't
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: want to be paying tolls to the Iranians. But Trump
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: just normalized tolls in the strait of Horror Moves and
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: made it so that every utterance by his Secretary of
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: State for why there needs to be a blockade or
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: why the war needs to continue in the so called
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: battle for horor Moves is to keep the straight open.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Whereas now Trump is saying no, no, no, no, We're going
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: to charge the toll. Not Iran.
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: They were the charge, right, They were pretending for five
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: seconds they cared about international law solely when it came
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: to this issue of whether or not you could charge
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: a toll. But now Trump is like, no, we're actually
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: fine with tolls. We just want to charge the toll
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: at twenty percent versus the one percent that Iran was
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: offering the world.
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: So that's where we are now.
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean he's back to blockade, trying to
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: starve them economically, seeing if that will create some additional
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: pressure to be able to get more gains of the
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: negotiating table that they were not able to secure previously.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: And you know, this is why you would not be
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: surprised if we find ourselves climbing up the next step
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: on the escalation ladder, because we know that this is
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: not going to succeed. We know that the US public
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: is not behind this war, whereas for Iran it is existential.
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: We know they are likely able to wait us out. Economically,
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: the pain is looming and is already here for the
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: American consumer. The midterms are right around the corner, so
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: the political fallout is also really close by and really near.
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: The Iranians understand all of this. So when this next
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: gambit of let's try the blockade again doesn't work.
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: Well, what is he going to go to next?
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: Is it going to be enough pain that he then
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: capitulates and basically says, okay, fine, you have control over
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: the straight of horror moves, which is the big sticking
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: point at this point, or is it going to be okay,
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: I guess we need to seize carg Island, or I
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: guess we need to do some other insane thing because
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: what we're trying is not working. And you know, unlike
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: other situations like Afghanistan, where you could kind of put
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: a for Ukraine, where you could kind of put a
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: forever war on the back burner, you don't have that
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: luxury with Iran. They might be deluding themselves into thinking
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: that they can basically fool the oil markets indefinitely into
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: keeping things in some sort of a manageable, reasonable state.
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: But we have hard realities that we're going to run
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: up against here very very soon. So this is not
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: the kind of thing that you can just put on
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: the back burner and hope that the American people stop
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: paying attention to it.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you're absolutely right, and actually to your point about
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: how look, Trump says a lot of things, but I
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: actually want you able to watch this next interview very closely.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: What you're seeing is an interview with Donald Trump and
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: Hugh Hewitt, who is of course a massive neocon. Hugh
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Hewitt keeps pushing him to take Pickaxe Mountain, which is
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: an alleged Iranian nuclear facility. Trump basically says, yeah, you're right,
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: We're going to go ahead and take it, along with
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: all kinds of other bello cooast rhetoric.
• 6:39
  Speaker 4: Let's take a listen, every time they send a drone,
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: we hit him very hard. But we had a deal,
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: but nobody knows we had a deal. It was a
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: done deal, and then they broke it. They always break it.
• 6:49
  Speaker 5: We've had ten deals with these vaiople, and so we're
• 6:53
  Speaker 5: just going to hit him very hard, and we're going
• 6:55
  Speaker 5: to keep the straight and we'll probably run it. Will
• 6:58
  Speaker 5: become the Guardian of the Straight. Maybe we'll call it
• 7:00
  Speaker 5: the Guardian Angel of the Strait. And we should be
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: reimbursed for that. When we do that, we're going to
• 7:06
  Speaker 5: be reimburrassed because the other nations are very wealthy. They're
• 7:08
  Speaker 5: on our side, and we can't be expected to do
• 7:11
  Speaker 5: that for nothing, unlike we had for many years.
• 7:13
  Speaker 6: We're gonna hit them hard tomorrow and there's not a
• 7:16
  Speaker 6: damn thing they can do about it. They have nothing,
• 7:18
  Speaker 6: they have nothing going other than they have big mouths.
• 7:21
  Speaker 6: And I keep it President that I did. You got
• 7:24
  Speaker 6: to know them and it's a lot better. You know,
• 7:27
  Speaker 6: people say I was at least reasonable, but I got
• 7:30
  Speaker 6: to know them with this sone cold crazy people got
• 7:33
  Speaker 6: you great speech, mister President.
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: Go get Pickaxe Mountain and don't keep the speaker waiting.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I appreciate your time, sir.
• 7:39
  Speaker 6: Okay, and we will do that. We're going to take
• 7:41
  Speaker 6: out Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to be ready coming.
• 7:46
  Speaker 5: Okay.
• 7:46
  Speaker 6: There's not a damn thing they can do about it.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Thanks to hahahaha. Yeah, it's all just so so funny.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: To bomb Iranian nuclear facilities and to keep this war going.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think that clip is very important because
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: that's your Trump is listening to, that's your Trump is
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: doing interviews with that. You know, to get Trump on
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: the phone, it's not so simple. You got to go
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: through multiple different rungs. It's not like you can just
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, you could directly call him. But when I'm
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: saying to get him due to an interview, this has
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: to be coordinated to the Press office, they know exactly
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: who it was. This is all coordinated specifically, not just
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: for the death of Lindsay Graham and all these memorials,
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: which I guess Lindsay would have wanted nothing else, not
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: only to see the war continue, the reinstitution of the blockade,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: but actually some kakamami scheme now about destroying Pickaxe Mountain,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: which from the air is one thing, but of course
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: we've talked multiple times here about it. If you actually
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: wanted to, you know, secure Iranian nuclear material, you're going
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: to have to go in and get it, which would
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: be just the disastrous military operation. Trump also into the
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: forever war point, is now justifying the war having lasted
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: several months by saying well, we were in Vietnam for
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: nineteen years. We're barely even in this thing. Let's take
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: a listen as.
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: Your president, you know, to the United States is bombing
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: Iran again.
• 8:52
  Speaker 7: I mean that you've been bombing.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Around for months now.
• 8:54
  Speaker 8: Is this just the new normal?
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: Well, you know, we're in Vietnam for nineteen years.
• 8:58
  Speaker 7: We're here for four months, so I think we've done
• 9:01
  Speaker 7: a lot.
• 9:01
  Speaker 5: We've knocked out the navy in a period of one month.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: So yeah, we were Vietnam for nineteen years. It's only
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: been a few months. It's like, well, actually, somehow you
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: managed to cram nineteen years of disaster into just four months.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Only you could have done it there, mister president, let's
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: put the Iranian Foreign minister's comments up here on the screen.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Potus is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: of commercial vessels through the Strait of horror Moves should
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: be compensated for the service. Iran has always been the
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: guardian of the Strait and will remain so forever. Twenty
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: percent is of course too much. We will be fair,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: so as I said, it's literally only charging one percent.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: You know. On top of that, we are watching the
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: escalation of what So, what we should do is we
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: need to reset the table, the cease fire, the memorandum
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: of understanding, the memorandum misunderstanding. That's all over. Okay, what
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: we're at now is basically tit for tat, a horror
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: moves warfare. It no longer has anything to do with nukes,
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: no matter what Trump will say, doesn't really have anything
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: to do with regime change. This is purely about resolving
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: a matter which was solved at the beginning of the war.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: This shows you just how disastrous this all is. It
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: is also leading to a new revolution in military affairs
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: on the American side, copying both the Iranians and the
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Ukrainians for these low cost one way suicide drones. Go
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: and put this video up here. I'm going to narrate
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: a little bit of what you can all see. This
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: is the first time it's ever been used in combat.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: So Sentcom released this video yesterday saying using one way
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: attack surface drones, sent Coom forces successfully struck a submarine
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: and ship maintenance facility in Iran. Three coursair unmanned surface
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: vessels hit the port at the bandar Abbast Naval Base,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: marketing the first time American forces have used sea drones
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: in combat last night strikes, degrading Iran's ability to continue
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: attacking commercial shipping. So this is what we're all watching
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: is a complete change and the way that Washington is
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: going to continue to use these one way attack drones
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: or these AI power drones. Remember when those pilots went
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: down in the Strait of more Moves and those AI
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: boats came to pick them up, they were completely unmanned. Effectively,
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: this is the Afghanistan playbook in a nutshell. If only
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: a few people die, or not that many people die,
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: then we can just pour hundreds of billions for years
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: and years to come. And so that's basically the strategy
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: the White House is continuing to go with. The one
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: thing that arches on top of all of this is,
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: unlike Afghanistan is we still have twenty percent of global
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: oil shipping which is disrupted. This strategic Petroleum Reserve near
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: its minimal operating levels. It will dip below that within
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: the next week or two, which will lead to some
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: very interesting conversations. Yesterday I was reading about China. Really,
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: nobody has any idea when they're going to start buying again.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: If they start buying today, it'll be five dollars a gallon,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: like literally within I don't even know two three weeks
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: if they just decide to resume buying at two thirds
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: or one third normal level. And so that really does
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: show the dramatic problem that the United States faces with
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: oil inventory and prices. And that's when stuff gets crazy.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: This is not to mention all the other crazy stuff
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: happening across the globe. Treata is going to break down
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: the resumption of hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. It
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: does appear by the way of reporting, just came out
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: last night that Trump spoke to the Crown Prince and
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: greenlit those strikes in Yemen. I just read this morning
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Ukrainian attacks on Russia have degraded refining capacity by twenty
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: one percent to some of the lowest levels in Russian history,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: which will mean that you'll see even further less oil
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: come off the global market. Things are all ready like
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: the crunch is here. It has been here now for
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: quite some time. And the thing we always warned about,
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: as I said yesterday, you brought it up hurricane season.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: You're one hurricane away in Texas taking out a couple
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: of refineries or disrupting the Gulf or the port of Houston.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: And that's it, like it's curtains in terms of seven
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: eight dollars a gallon, shortages, all kinds of other insanity.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: That's exact exactly what the SPR is designed for. This
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: is not going to end. Let's put a six finally
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: up here on the screen. President Trump notified Congress yesterday
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: of the resumption of US military activities against Iran under
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: the War Powers Resolution. He writes to the he writes,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: the dear mister President, I write to apprise you of
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: military action commenced on July seven against the government of
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: the Islamic of Iran. I previously notified you of changes
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: in the global posture of the US Armed Forces in
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: relation to Iran on June eleven, twenty twenty six, and
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: that was in terms of the ceasefire. He is now
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: saying that that is effectively over. These efforts led to
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: my signing of a memoranding of understanding. However, at my direction,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: the United States Armed Forces have responded to what he
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: says is a violation of that, and we have resumed
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: now quote, defensive strikes against the Islamic Republic of Iran
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: and so all of that together. And you know, remember
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: this all broke out on Monday, so that's when the
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: market open. Now, I would not put it off the
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: table that we're in some crazy ceasefire resumption of negotiations
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: by Friday, but the fact that they were willing to
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: go out on Monday and say, okay, we're back that
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: spell is very bad, I think, because that means that
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: they're not worried about calming the markets, They're not worried
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: about the price of oil, and so yeah, I mean,
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: you know, I've been speaking to some people around in Washington,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: and not to divelge like too much of private conversations,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: but one of the Median expectations in the security establishment
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: today is that the forever war and the tit for
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: tat Battle of Horn Moves is here to stay for
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: quite some time before anybody feels to pain. And nobody
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: is unfortunately. You know, if you read a lot of
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: history books, like nobody's bled enough the Iranians. You know,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: they lost some stuff. You know, they still have their
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: their whole regime is intact. They have restored to terrence.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: The United States we paid four point fifty a gallon.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: That's high. It's not that high. It's not gas lines high.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: We know our stock market is still near all time
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: I'm not diminishing in any way what's happened to normal people.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: But Americans. You know, we've lost thirteen people, not that
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: high in terms of the long history. Fourteen, right, so
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: we have fourteen Americans who've been killed. Again, I'm not
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: diminishing these people's debts. I don't think they should be dead.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: But no American truly felt like a massive pain. And
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: that's what it will take for Trump to actually fully buckle.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: So we're locked in this now basically for they're going
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: to try and keep us away from that pain point.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: But I would say if this continues, we probably have
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: another month until there's an actual full blown crisis whenever
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: it comes to oil. But that's part of the reason
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: why this the logic. I'm curious what you think, like,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: he has to taco, He does not have a choice,
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: but he might he still might not, And that's the
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: problem is that's where the escalation ladder leads.
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly right, because again it comes back to
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: can his ego? Can is ego sustain it? And it's
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: looking right now, like no, like it's going to require
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: more pain. And this is what the Irani and hardliners
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: have been arguing, as you haven't done enough right, they're
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: not ready to capitulate yet, and we don't want to
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: end up back in the situation again, which is exactly
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: what happened. We could put the last element in this
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: block A nine up on the screen. This is from
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: Professor Muhammed Morandi, who we've had on the show multiple times,
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: who was involved in the negotiations back during the JC
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: Poway as media attache. Involved again during these negotiations, he
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: says iron new Trump would undermine the MoU so use
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: the agreement to outmaneuver him swiftly exporting vast quantities of
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: oil importing essential goods has now pulled far ahead of Trump,
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: who has been unable to mitigate the looming energy supply crisis.
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: So this is the Iranian spin and take. I don't
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: doubt that like they didn't trust that this would ultimately
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: lead to some sort of favorable resolution and that they
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: were doing everything that they could during this time period
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: when they were able to sell oil freely on the
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: international markets to accumulate revenue to import whatever it is
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: that they need to import and be prepared for if
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: there was a next round. So that is the way
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: that they are portraying things. But you know, I'm just
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: looking at the markets this morning. We've got oil now
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: US crewed back up over eighty dollars. Yesterday it was
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: around seventy, so you can see the trend. You've got
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: treasury bond yields that are up, You've got the stock
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: market that's down.
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: So it is only a.
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: Matter of time and very hard to know exactly when
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: the shit actually hits the fan. But the other piece
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: of this is the people who are already suffering in
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: the US. You know, those people for whom paying four
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: dollars a gallon is genuinely ruinous. Those are the same
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: people who have the least power in our political system
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: as well, and are basically invisible to policymakers. So that's
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: part of why the impact that has already been felt
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: on them does not really ripple for the political system.
• 17:46
  Speaker 7: Very true.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: Let's put a seven up on the screen. So this
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: is about what they announced yesterday in the UAE. So
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: the US Consulate in the UAE has actually canceled all
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: consular services at the endbassy and Consulate General in Dubai
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: and in Abu Dhabi. The reason why is for security reasons.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: So we'll remember in the very opening days of the war,
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: we saw targeted drone strikes against multiple US facilities in
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: the UAE, in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, in Kuwait. Many
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: of these embassies were actually severely damaged by these Iranian
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: suicide drones. And so this is a major major problem
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: for the United States, and that you can see that
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: they're already canceling preemptively consular services to make sure people
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: don't get killed. I mean, it is a bit strange,
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: like we have not seen the full scale retaliation in
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: the way that Iran was acting immediately while the resumption
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: of the war. And perhaps that's very strategic because right now,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: basically what I do wonder is that Iran's strategy seems
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: to be Okay, Israel's not bombing us, so we won't
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: bomb Israel like they're trying to define it purely in
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: terms of self defense. This is the Battle of Hormuz.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: All of our strikes will go against other commercial ships
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: that violate the blockade. Their blockade, the US assets in
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: the Strait of hormoves and to the extent that we're
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: striking anything in the Gulf countries, we are not going
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: to strike any civilian or energy infrastructure. We will simply
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: strike US assets that are in the region there because
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: they're fair game according to them. So it does seem
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: to be actually quite a measured response. It keeps the UAE,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia and these other countries out of the game
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: at least for now because they're not striking those oil
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: facilities and others, which is what the full scale eruption
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: of the war had invited that type of retaliation. But
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: it does just seem I don't know, it just seems
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: like something has to break because of the energy equation
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: that we just keep coming back to, like there's only
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: a certain amount of barrels in the market. How long
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: can we really sustain this? And we're just a few
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: events away from seven or eight dollars a gallon here
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: in the United States. Like the precarity of that is
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: just so nightmarish, I think for the US economy and
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: for everything else. And that seems to be the Iranian
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: strategy from from Professor Morandi, I do also think on
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: the Iranian side, from what I was reading. This has
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: really empowered a lot of the critics of the deal
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: because they're like, seeing, you idiots, we told you not
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: to do this, We told you that they were going
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: to continue to go down this path. In the American side,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: JD is you know, missing an action. Literally, haven't even
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: heard from the guy in multiple weeks. Yep, he has gone.
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: Rubio is back. You got Trump on, Hugh Hewitt, Mark Levin,
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: and everybody else is cheering like that. You know, it's
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: pointing in one direction right now if you want to
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: look at the tea leaves.
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: So yeah, a lot of you know, hardline nationalist sentiment
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: expressed at the funeral that was you know, visible through
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: the signs and the flags that were being waived. So
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: you know there is a domestic political push in that
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: direction in Iran as well. And then I keep thinking
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: from Trump's side of what he told Tucker when Tucker
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: was like, you really shouldn't do this, He's like, don't worry,
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: It'll work out. It always does. I think that's how
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: he approaches things.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: He really doesn't just coology, can't you. I mean, he
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: has won everything that he ever really wanted to. You know,
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: he like he won the election. Nobody said it was
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: twenty sixteen the ultimate gam.
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, even going back to all his business backankruptcies
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: and everything always seems to land on his feet. And
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: so that's the way he's operating here, is like, oh,
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: all these doom you know, all these Panicans saying it's
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: going to be eight dollars of gas, like it's going
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: to be fine. Like it's nothing's completely fallen apart yet,
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: so we'll work it out.
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: I think he believes he's touched by God. I also
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: think a lot of his advisors believe that. I think
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: so too. If you're very scary, did you read the
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: Regime Change Book or some of it?
• 21:34
  Speaker 9: Yeah?
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: I get And so when you read that, you're like
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: one of the things that a lot of his advisors can.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: They always defer to him because they're like, well, you
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: do have to give it to him. He always wriggles
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: his way out of something. And you know, this is
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: the one where there's just the perfect alchemy. I feel
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: like of like the war, expenditure of resources, ego, the
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: straight up horn moves oil, it all just came together
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: where this is the one that actually will break him.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: I think ultimately because you know you're going to You're
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: either going to have to have defeat or we invade,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: and both is a defeat in my opinion. It's basically,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: you know, we talked previously months ago about how this
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: is the end of his presidency and this is the
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: definitional point of how it will just never end, like
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: it will just continue to be in the background, a
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: thorn for a few weeks. That may subside for a
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: few weeks, it may not, but we're always going to
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: end up back here if we don't solve the fundamental question.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: And I think the other thing he's planning the speech
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: Thursday night that's supposed to be about the twenty twenty
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: election being rigged by foreign influenced blah blah blah. We
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: don't know all the details yet. It may have to
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: do with you know, Venezuela and cutting some sort of
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: a deal. I don't know, but I feel like that
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: is both an attempt to try to seize control of
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: the midterms. Wouldn't be surprised if there was some national
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: emergency that was declared or some powers that were grabbed
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: to try to change the results of what the midterms
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: are likely to be. But also another thing for people
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: to be very justifiably upset about. So they're talking about
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: that and not what a disaster his iron mess.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: It's a very obvious ploy too, because I mean, do
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: we really think he's gonna seize that. I mean, look,
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: I just honestly don't think so. I think it will
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: be a massive in kind donation to the Assoff campaign
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: and to the One campaign. But what we do know, well,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: first of all, it doesn't diminish how bad it is. Like,
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: let's be honest, yeah, disaster. Like to go out there
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: and say, like, oh, the election in which I presided over,
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: by the way, because I was the president, was somehow rigged,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: it's like, okay, you know, you have a better shot
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: at saying that about twenty twenty four. But in reality,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: what it is, and we know this from him, he
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: wants to change the narrative. He likes when people freak out.
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: It's his personal project. So this though, it just you know,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: you see it today, like you have to just keep
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: coming back to Iran. It is the biggest story in
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: the world. It will remain so now for quite some time.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: There's just no getting out of it unless you basically
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: unless you cry uncle so all right, let's get to
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: doctor Tree de Parsi. He's standing by for us.
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: For more analysis of the Iran war and also this
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: wild regime change plot involving Akmadinajad that is just too
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: crazy to believe. We are joined now by doctor Treta
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: Parsi of the Quincy Institute and also author of the
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: Treatah Parsi substack that you all should go subscribe to.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: Great to see you, sar, Good to see you, Good
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: to be with you guys.
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so we've just been talking about all of the updates,
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: how it appears that Trump is trying to set up
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: some sort of forever war dynamic. You've got a new
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: piece up on your substack. We can put this up
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: on the screen. You say, a new US Iran war
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: would end where the last one did. The fundamentals remain unchanged.
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: Iran can threaten hormoves, the US can punish Iran, and
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: neither can secure its objectives through force. So what do
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: you make of the developments this week which seemed to
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: be a significant break from the previous dynamic where we
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: would have some limited bombing over the weekend and then
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: some market timed announcement of new talks and negotiations.
• 24:57
  Speaker 10: Now this is a clear break from that in which
• 25:00
  Speaker 10: Trump has just completely shifted his position.
• 25:02
  Speaker 7: I mean, we're back at war. We're back at war.
• 25:05
  Speaker 10: The Ivanians that put back the closure of the strait,
• 25:08
  Speaker 10: Trump is putting back the today the blockade of the blockade.
• 25:11
  Speaker 10: We're going back to the previous dynamics without any of
• 25:14
  Speaker 10: the fundamentals changing in a positive way for the United States.
• 25:18
  Speaker 10: When you take a look at, for instance, the stockpile
• 25:22
  Speaker 10: and the inventory of global oil. Remember Vans made a
• 25:26
  Speaker 10: statement that the MoU would be used to stock things
• 25:30
  Speaker 10: up and then see where things are.
• 25:31
  Speaker 8: Well.
• 25:32
  Speaker 7: It hasn't stocked up.
• 25:33
  Speaker 10: We're talking about a five percent recovery during the MoU
• 25:38
  Speaker 10: in terms of how much the global oil inventory has dropped.
• 25:43
  Speaker 10: The strategic petroleum reserve of the United States is still down.
• 25:46
  Speaker 10: So none of these things have happened, which means that
• 25:50
  Speaker 10: the runway for the United States, the amount of time
• 25:53
  Speaker 10: it would take before this war would lead to a
• 25:55
  Speaker 10: major economic crisis, is much shorter than it was back
• 25:59
  Speaker 10: in February. On top of that, we're only sixteen weeks
• 26:03
  Speaker 10: away from the midterm elections, and of course the secondary
• 26:08
  Speaker 10: and third level repercussions of the previous O shock have
• 26:11
  Speaker 10: not been fully felt yet, so to start this war
• 26:15
  Speaker 10: in this manner at this moment just makes absolutely zero sense.
• 26:19
  Speaker 10: Unless Trump has figured out some sort of a brilliant
• 26:23
  Speaker 10: military strategy that had not been used before that could
• 26:26
  Speaker 10: put an end to this world within a week or two,
• 26:29
  Speaker 10: and I very much doubt that. So this is I
• 26:32
  Speaker 10: think more a manifestation that there were some errors made
• 26:35
  Speaker 10: by both sides, some exaggerated reactions to a couple of
• 26:39
  Speaker 10: things that happened, but then this sudden, massive overreaction and
• 26:44
  Speaker 10: Trump just being in a bad place and decided that
• 26:46
  Speaker 10: this is not good enough. And I think this is
• 26:48
  Speaker 10: a problem that is going to be recurring if we
• 26:50
  Speaker 10: ever managed to get back to diplomacy. Trump seems to
• 26:54
  Speaker 10: need this kind of constant assembly line of positive developments,
• 26:59
  Speaker 10: positive feedback to stick to that line, and if he
• 27:02
  Speaker 10: doesn't get it, he just doesn't one to eighty, and
• 27:04
  Speaker 10: you're just not going to be able to resolve the
• 27:07
  Speaker 10: conflict of forty seven years between two countries with that
• 27:10
  Speaker 10: type of a straight line, never a bump into road
• 27:13
  Speaker 10: type of approach.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: Or especially you know, in the middle of negotiations that
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: you just threatened to kill the people who are at
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: the table potentially doesn't help. One of the things, sir,
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: that you're highlighting is about the runway in the global economy,
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: and not enough people are paying attention. We have b
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: one that we can just show some of the footage,
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: but it does appear, you know, with the resumption of
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: these hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, reports are coming
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: out here of Washington that the United States Trump spoke
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: with MBS and Saudi Arabia to actually green light some
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: of these strikes. Obviously, this could bring not just the
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: who these into war with Saudi Arabia, but it could
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: bring them also into a blockade of the Bab al
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: Mandeb Strait, which would only further exacerbate this energy crisis.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: What do you make of Trump's decision to green light
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: a resumption of hostilities with Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Why
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: would he do so, why would Saudi Arabia want to
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: do so? What are the implications for us.
• 28:09
  Speaker 10: All so, First, I think it's important to understand that
• 28:13
  Speaker 10: the Yemeni dynamic has its own dynamic, but it's happening
• 28:17
  Speaker 10: in the context of this larger problem in the region.
• 28:21
  Speaker 10: But if we look at that dynamic, first and foremost,
• 28:23
  Speaker 10: there was a UN Security Council resolution I forgot which
• 28:26
  Speaker 10: year it was, twenty seventeen or so anach must have
• 28:29
  Speaker 10: been a little bit earlier in which a blockade was
• 28:32
  Speaker 10: put on the Uties. Even though the Iranians and the
• 28:36
  Speaker 10: Saudis normalized relations, that UN resolution was never lifted. It
• 28:40
  Speaker 10: sit in place, and the Saudi still want to keep
• 28:42
  Speaker 10: it in place, and they want to make sure that
• 28:44
  Speaker 10: the Juties are not using this normalization to rebuild official
• 28:49
  Speaker 10: logistical lines between Iran and Yemen. And during this funeral
• 28:56
  Speaker 10: of the Supreme Leader, it seems like the Iranians took
• 28:58
  Speaker 10: the opportunity to challenge that bit because they sent the
• 29:01
  Speaker 10: plane to Sona to pick up UTI officials to fly
• 29:05
  Speaker 10: them to the funeral. Decideri's try to stop that. They couldn't.
• 29:09
  Speaker 10: But now when that plane is returning, they attacked the
• 29:13
  Speaker 10: airport and forced the plane to land at at Weida
• 29:17
  Speaker 10: instead of landing in Sona. So I think this is
• 29:20
  Speaker 10: part of that dynamic, But as you pointed out, it
• 29:23
  Speaker 10: is taking place within the context in which you're seeing
• 29:26
  Speaker 10: Trump simply being in an escalatory mode.
• 29:30
  Speaker 7: So you know, to be frank at this point.
• 29:32
  Speaker 10: If any of the leaders in the region were to
• 29:35
  Speaker 10: call him right now and ask him for a green
• 29:37
  Speaker 10: light for some sort of a military action that they could.
• 29:39
  Speaker 7: Frame as being a.
• 29:42
  Speaker 10: Devastating blow to Yvan, I suspect that he would say
• 29:44
  Speaker 10: yes to it without thinking twice.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: Right, good point.
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: So is it your sense of that MOLU is basically
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: dead at this point? I mean, the thing was signed
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: and then they never even really got to the sixty
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: day negotiations, which were meant to tackle these more difficult issues,
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: the nuclear program involving control of the straight U wom
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: moves that never really even developed, and now here we
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: are barreling back towards full scale hostilities.
• 30:11
  Speaker 7: I think the MoU is dead. That does not mean
• 30:13
  Speaker 7: that it cannot be revived.
• 30:16
  Speaker 10: At some point, they're probably going to come to the
• 30:18
  Speaker 10: conclusion that this is not working and there needs to
• 30:21
  Speaker 10: be a return to some form of a ceasefire. There's
• 30:24
  Speaker 10: problems with the MU, there's ambiguity that were too big, clearly,
• 30:28
  Speaker 10: but if you want to start off from scratch, that's
• 30:30
  Speaker 10: going to be a very very difficult task. So I
• 30:34
  Speaker 10: think if there is a return to diplomacy. If we're
• 30:37
  Speaker 10: lucky enough that that happens, it's going to at least
• 30:40
  Speaker 10: be built on the MU some changes, obviously, but it's
• 30:43
  Speaker 10: not going to start off from scratch. But I think
• 30:45
  Speaker 10: the one thing that may change that may cause them
• 30:48
  Speaker 10: to go back to the table is not that the
• 30:49
  Speaker 10: fundamentals are change in anyone's favor in a particular way,
• 30:53
  Speaker 10: but rather that the allure that military action can change
• 30:58
  Speaker 10: the facts on the ground in a manner that shifts
• 31:01
  Speaker 10: the dynamics in the negotiations in anyone's side. That alert,
• 31:06
  Speaker 10: I think is going to be gone because I think
• 31:08
  Speaker 10: it will be clear after the second round that it
• 31:10
  Speaker 10: is really not going to change anything in a significant manner.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but that's that's my question, sir. So you know
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: when we talk about this and get so it's not
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: just the United States that has to bring to cust
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: to come to the table. What about the Iranian side?
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: Because you had talked previously there are major divides in
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: Iranian political society. The most noteworthy statement was from the
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: Supreme Leader, who basically said something along the lines of
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: I didn't want to do this, but I'm going to
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: listen to my advisors you know, I don't know how
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: much agency he himself has, but how what will it
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: take for Iran to come back to the table after
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: all of these resumption of hostilities.
• 31:48
  Speaker 10: It's going to be extremely difficult to get back to
• 31:51
  Speaker 10: the table the Iranians. First of all, I do think
• 31:53
  Speaker 10: that the Iranians also committed mistakes. I think it was
• 31:55
  Speaker 10: an old reaction to shooting at some of these ships.
• 31:58
  Speaker 10: I think this could have been handled different I do
• 32:00
  Speaker 10: think that the Iranians suspicion that the United States was
• 32:04
  Speaker 10: trying to build a southern corridor that would be out
• 32:07
  Speaker 10: of the control of the Iranians, that would be able
• 32:10
  Speaker 10: to be operational even if war resumed, essentially taking Iran's
• 32:14
  Speaker 10: leverage away from the Strait, is probably a plausible suspicion
• 32:21
  Speaker 10: that the Iranians had, because it makes perfect sense for
• 32:24
  Speaker 10: the United States to try to do something like that,
• 32:26
  Speaker 10: But nevertheless, to do it within the MORU essentially means
• 32:31
  Speaker 10: that you're not really pursuing the negotiations, You're pursuing a
• 32:34
  Speaker 10: different path under the guise of negotiations. Nevertheless, setting that aside,
• 32:38
  Speaker 10: I think what has happened here over the course of
• 32:41
  Speaker 10: the last three or so weeks is that I detected
• 32:44
  Speaker 10: a significant darkening in the mood in Iran in terms
• 32:47
  Speaker 10: of them becoming increasingly convinced that the United States was likely,
• 32:51
  Speaker 10: or if not inevitable, that it would attack again. They
• 32:54
  Speaker 10: were seeing all kinds of signs that indicated to them
• 32:57
  Speaker 10: that Trump was not going to follow through with the diplomacy.
• 33:00
  Speaker 10: I think that Israeli Lebanese agreement was one such sign.
• 33:06
  Speaker 10: Another one that got far less attention is that Marco Rubio,
• 33:09
  Speaker 10: right before mediating the Lebanese's Radi agreement, which contradicted the
• 33:13
  Speaker 10: MU and my view, also went to the GCC States,
• 33:17
  Speaker 10: got them all together and got even the Omanis to
• 33:19
  Speaker 10: sign on to an official statement that essentially rejected previous
• 33:24
  Speaker 10: ideas that the Omanis themselves had put forward about a
• 33:28
  Speaker 10: joint management of the strait of hormones. And afterwards Rubio said,
• 33:33
  Speaker 10: it doesn't matter. It cannot be if told, it cannot
• 33:35
  Speaker 10: be a fee. Everything has to go back to exactly
• 33:38
  Speaker 10: the way they were before Debra twenty seven, when the
• 33:41
  Speaker 10: United States started a war. That also, I think suggested
• 33:44
  Speaker 10: to the Yvarnians that the US is not going to
• 33:47
  Speaker 10: have any flexibility because it's.
• 33:48
  Speaker 7: Essentially changing its position on the strait.
• 33:51
  Speaker 10: That's how they perceived it and pushed them in the
• 33:54
  Speaker 10: direction of thinking that if there's going to be a war,
• 33:56
  Speaker 10: it's better for the Vannians to close the strait earlier
• 34:00
  Speaker 10: rather than allow the United States to choose the timing
• 34:02
  Speaker 10: of the war on its own. Having said that, I
• 34:05
  Speaker 10: think the Irania has made an assumption it may not
• 34:08
  Speaker 10: have been absolutely solid, and by that they may have
• 34:10
  Speaker 10: made the war that they thought that they could avoid inevitable.
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: Do you have any sense of or any theories or
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: do the Iranians have any theories of how long before
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: you know, oil really spikes and we have, you know,
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: massive global economic fallout in a way that becomes very
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: politically painful, more so than it already has been for Trump.
• 34:32
  Speaker 10: I think what happened with the mus the last couple
• 34:35
  Speaker 10: of weeks of negotiations, we saw that the Iranians were
• 34:38
  Speaker 10: very slow. You know, they were neither saying yes to
• 34:41
  Speaker 10: the proposals nor no. They were dragging out time. And
• 34:44
  Speaker 10: part of the reason why they were doing so was
• 34:46
  Speaker 10: to actually get the global economy to suffer even further
• 34:50
  Speaker 10: to strengthen their hand in those negotiations. And there were
• 34:52
  Speaker 10: some last minute changes that were made to the proposal,
• 34:56
  Speaker 10: and there are voices in Iran that believed that they
• 34:57
  Speaker 10: should have held out even longer, that Trump was really
• 35:01
  Speaker 10: in a desperate situation and they should have pushed further
• 35:04
  Speaker 10: rather than agreed to it at the time. I suspect
• 35:07
  Speaker 10: that this time around, if this continues in the manner
• 35:11
  Speaker 10: that it seems to be continuing, they will intensify that.
• 35:14
  Speaker 10: They know very well that their starting point is worse
• 35:17
  Speaker 10: for the US. They know very well that the political
• 35:19
  Speaker 10: runway is even shorter. They themselves have suffered because they
• 35:24
  Speaker 10: have replenished a lot of oil on the waters, but
• 35:27
  Speaker 10: not to the same numbers that they had before the
• 35:29
  Speaker 10: war started, so they too are at a lower level.
• 35:32
  Speaker 10: But I think they believe that in the short run
• 35:35
  Speaker 10: they have a higher pain tolerance.
• 35:37
  Speaker 7: Than the United States does.
• 35:38
  Speaker 10: If this ends up becoming a low intensity war that
• 35:41
  Speaker 10: goes on for a very long time, then I think
• 35:44
  Speaker 10: Vanyas will be in a much worse situation.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: Well, I think we also wanted to discuss with you,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: sir before let's put it up. Here is a New
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: York Times investigation about and is really secret operation to
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: cultivate Akmedinaja of all people, where it appears that for
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: the last several years they have been meeting with him
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: secretly all across the world. That part of the scheme
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: in bombing his residence was to take out his IRGC
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: captors to then smuggle him to some black site inside
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: of Iran by a MASSAD agent. Until Akmadinajohn himself appears
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: to have left of his own volition and decided that
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: the entire regime change operation that was built upon him
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: actually taking power and somehow becoming pro Israel decided he
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: himself that it wasn't going to work, and he now
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: appears to be back under IRGC protection. I guess you
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: could call it there's a lot going on here, But
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: just what does this tell us about Israel's plot to
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: actually have regime change in Iran?
• 36:48
  Speaker 10: It's the best way of describing there's a lot going
• 36:51
  Speaker 10: on here.
• 36:53
  Speaker 7: Look what to make of this?
• 36:55
  Speaker 10: Let me start off by saying, look, I don't find
• 36:57
  Speaker 10: this to be completely implausible looking at the trajectory of Agnadeinejad,
• 37:02
  Speaker 10: the manner in which he really broke with the system.
• 37:07
  Speaker 10: He had this huge fallout with comedy. He was marginalized.
• 37:10
  Speaker 10: He was ostracized in the Iranian political system for quite
• 37:14
  Speaker 10: some time. And you know, this is a person of
• 37:18
  Speaker 10: significant ambition and as a result, the idea that he
• 37:22
  Speaker 10: could go in this direction, I don't think is implausible.
• 37:25
  Speaker 10: The idea that the Israelis would think that this would
• 37:28
  Speaker 10: be like one of the this would be the moby
• 37:30
  Speaker 10: dick of all flips that they could achieve getting someone
• 37:34
  Speaker 10: like Adnadeinjad to flip to their side. I think it
• 37:37
  Speaker 10: is something that is so attractive that I wouldn't at
• 37:39
  Speaker 10: all pull it beyond them that they would try.
• 37:42
  Speaker 7: Now the rest of the story. Did he actually flip?
• 37:45
  Speaker 10: Was it that he changed his mind after his house
• 37:48
  Speaker 10: accidentally got bombed, or is it that he changed This
• 37:51
  Speaker 10: was never sincere from his end at the outset that
• 37:54
  Speaker 10: this was actually a double effort. I have no idea,
• 37:58
  Speaker 10: and I don't know if we ever will find out,
• 38:00
  Speaker 10: but I do want to note that it does appear
• 38:02
  Speaker 10: that he is in some form of a house arrest
• 38:04
  Speaker 10: in Ivan. He was not seen for most of the
• 38:07
  Speaker 10: war until he was seen surrounded by bodyguards during the funeral.
• 38:13
  Speaker 10: People I've spoken to in Iran have also said that
• 38:15
  Speaker 10: they find this plausible, and I think given the penetration
• 38:19
  Speaker 10: that the Israelis have had of the Ivanian system, again,
• 38:24
  Speaker 10: it is impossible to say that this is just a
• 38:26
  Speaker 10: complete impossibility, this could never have happened. But nevertheless, some
• 38:31
  Speaker 10: core elements of this may be true, but rather the
• 38:35
  Speaker 10: larger framing of it is still unclear to me as
• 38:38
  Speaker 10: to whether this was really an effort by him to
• 38:41
  Speaker 10: flip to that side, or if this was something more
• 38:43
  Speaker 10: complicated than that. One thing I want to add to
• 38:46
  Speaker 10: I think the biggest loser, the person that probably is
• 38:49
  Speaker 10: feeling the worst reading that New York Times story is Rezapalaiti.
• 38:53
  Speaker 10: After everything he did to sell out to these Raelis
• 38:56
  Speaker 10: and find out that they were actually more inclined to
• 38:58
  Speaker 10: go with Agnadeineja than with him, tells you a lot.
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: Incredible and just as a reminder for audience who may
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: be younger, don't remember the details. I mean, he was
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: a hardliner when he was president. He was really held
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: up as this global villain. We pulled a little throwback
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: clip of Netanyahoo talking about Achmadinajad at the UN.
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.
• 39:19
  Speaker 11: Yesterday, the man who calls the Holocaust. Alie spoke from
• 39:25
  Speaker 11: this podium. To those who refused to come, and to
• 39:33
  Speaker 11: those who left in protest, I commend you. You stood
• 39:40
  Speaker 11: up from more clarity, and you brought honor to your countries.
• 39:48
  Speaker 11: But to those who gave this Holocaust denier a hearing,
• 39:53
  Speaker 11: I say, on behalf of my people, the Jewish people
• 39:56
  Speaker 11: and decent people everywhere. Have you know, have you no decency?
• 40:09
  Speaker 11: A mere six decades after the Holocaust? You give legitimacy
• 40:14
  Speaker 11: to a man who denies the murder of six million
• 40:17
  Speaker 11: Jews while promising to wipe out the state of Israel
• 40:22
  Speaker 11: the state of the Jews.
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: And he's not lying there.
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, Amena job was slash is question mark a
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: Holocaust denier. It reminds me very much of the flip
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: of al Jelani from terrorists to hey, we'll work with him.
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: He's president of Syria. Come to the US. We'll lift sanctions,
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: you know, as long as you let Israel what they do,
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: what they want to do in occupying portion of Syria.
• 40:45
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 40:45
  Speaker 10: And look, also keep one thing in mind. The Israelis,
• 40:49
  Speaker 10: in the early years of them forming their state, recruited
• 40:53
  Speaker 10: a lot of Nazis from Germany, to help build up
• 40:56
  Speaker 10: their weapons systems.
• 40:57
  Speaker 7: So there's a long.
• 40:58
  Speaker 10: History of the Israelies setting aside those things. You can
• 41:02
  Speaker 10: call it pragmatic, you can say that it shows that
• 41:06
  Speaker 10: the accusation of anti Semitism is allow. They're okay with
• 41:09
  Speaker 10: them as long as they help Israel advance Israel's interest.
• 41:12
  Speaker 7: But there's a long history of this. So again, there's
• 41:14
  Speaker 7: a lot of in this lot.
• 41:15
  Speaker 10: Going on in this story, as you said, Sagara, but
• 41:17
  Speaker 10: at the same time, a lot of it that is
• 41:19
  Speaker 10: not implausible.
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: The last thing that I wanted to ask you about
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: the story is they also talk about this plan to
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: arm and train Iranian Kurdish opposition. You know, they're based
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: in northern Iraq. They're supposed to cross into western Iran
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: hold territory there move toward Tehran. This is something Trump
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: has gestured toward multiple times. This part of the plan
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: also seems to have completely fallen apart for whatever reason,
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: never materialized. I'm also wondering if some of these pieces
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: are why Trump was so convinced that this would be
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: a three four day bombing campaign and then it would
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: be all done and dusted and New Iran congratulate new
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: pro American pro Israeli Iran would be bored.
• 42:01
  Speaker 10: It may probably very well have been part of the
• 42:03
  Speaker 10: reason why he was under disillusion this would take four days.
• 42:06
  Speaker 10: But even if they had managed to arm the Kurds,
• 42:10
  Speaker 10: and even if they had gone in and and invaded
• 42:13
  Speaker 10: Iran from northern Iraq, it would not frankly have mattered.
• 42:18
  Speaker 7: This would not have been a three to four day ordeal.
• 42:20
  Speaker 10: This was stopped primarily by the Turks and Iraq's northern
• 42:24
  Speaker 10: Kurdish government themselves realizing what a disaster it would be
• 42:28
  Speaker 10: and the high price that Kurdistan in northern Iraq would
• 42:31
  Speaker 10: pay because of the Iranian retaliation.
• 42:34
  Speaker 7: So it was a fantasy on all sides regardless.
• 42:37
  Speaker 10: In some ways, Trump got lucky that this element of
• 42:41
  Speaker 10: the plan never was fully implemented, because it would probably
• 42:43
  Speaker 10: have made the situation worse for everyone without changing the
• 42:48
  Speaker 10: the final outcome.
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: My last question for you, sir, the Israel you know, basically,
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: you know issue like that belies all of this. We
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: actually have not seen a resumption of the bombing between
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: the too. We have not seen, at least for now,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: a full scale resumption of what we previously saw in Lebanon,
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: and with Hesbola, So that also seems to be underlying
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: this whole thing, but of course can rear its head
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: at any moment. How do you see the Israeli a
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: factor in all of this going forward? Right now we've
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: only talked about the United States and Iran, but what
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: about israel.
• 43:23
  Speaker 11: I?
• 43:23
  Speaker 7: Think it's a great question.
• 43:24
  Speaker 10: I do wonder whether natania who wants to keep a
• 43:27
  Speaker 10: lower profile on this issue. I mean, if he's getting
• 43:30
  Speaker 10: if Trump is starting the war on its own, perfect
• 43:33
  Speaker 10: for NATANIAO. He doesn't have to have his fingerprints on it.
• 43:36
  Speaker 10: He doesn't have to be accused of having pushed Trump
• 43:38
  Speaker 10: in that direction. So if Trump himself is going that direction,
• 43:43
  Speaker 10: why would Nataniello interfere? Now can Israel at some point
• 43:47
  Speaker 10: join the war? Perhaps the thinking is that it's actually
• 43:49
  Speaker 10: better that it doesn't, that it leaves it as an
• 43:52
  Speaker 10: Ivanni in the American war that Trump himself fully owns.
• 43:56
  Speaker 10: But also keep in mind, he's supposedly going to come
• 43:58
  Speaker 10: here this week, and there's a lot on agenda, and
• 44:01
  Speaker 10: if he had shown up here three weeks ago, he
• 44:03
  Speaker 10: would have shown up as a loser, as someone who
• 44:05
  Speaker 10: dragged Trump into the wrong war, who told him fairy
• 44:09
  Speaker 10: tales of what would happen. Who is unpopular at home,
• 44:12
  Speaker 10: is facing difficulties. Was heavily criticized because the US and
• 44:16
  Speaker 10: Yvon signed a memorandum that really went is against Israeli
• 44:19
  Speaker 10: interested in Lebanon instead. He's now showing up and he's
• 44:22
  Speaker 10: going to say, hey, I told you so. I told
• 44:24
  Speaker 10: you that you can't do diplomacy with the Iranians, and
• 44:27
  Speaker 10: I told you shouldn't give them these things in Lebanon,
• 44:29
  Speaker 10: et cetera. So it's remarkable how much his fortunes have
• 44:33
  Speaker 10: shifted just in three weeks.
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: Right, very true, doctor Tree de Parsi, thank you, as
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: always for your analysis, Very much appreciated.
• 44:40
  Speaker 7: Thanks so much for having me appreciate it. Thank you.
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: We have another ice killing, this one in Maine to
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: sadly report on this morning. This comes on the heels
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: of a very similar incident that unfolded in Houston last week.
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: Of course, this is going to be disturbing.
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: We do have some video here in some detail here
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: that are quite quite horrifying. Let's go ahead and put
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: the video up on the screen.
• 45:05
  Speaker 11: Now.
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: You can see here this white car that is sort
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: of slowly circling, uh, This is the car that the victim,
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: a twenty six year old from Columbia who appears to
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: have been applying for asylum war on his status in
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: a moment. These appeared to be the moments after he
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: had already been shot in the head. As we learned
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: with the Renee Good case, you know, if you're shot
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: and killed, the car does not immediately stop. That is
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: why it is circling here slowly so you don't actually
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: hear the gunfire.
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: In this video. This appears to be the.
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: Aftermath of what occurred here. From this stop. We have
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: another video that has been circulating as well, where after
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: they bring the car to a stop, they actually pull
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: him out of the vehicle and handcuff him, even though
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: he had already been shot in the head. There are
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: also reports that his wife and young child came quickly
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: to the scene and witnessed all of this. Just absolutely
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: horrifying situation. We're also getting details of both from authorities
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: of their claims of what unfolded here and also from eyewitnesses.
• 46:12
  Speaker 3: Let's put C three.
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: Up on the screen. This is the Ice statement, which
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: I think is quite noteworthy. Actually, Ice responds to the
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: officer involved shooting in Maine. On July thirteen, twenty twenty six,
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: at approximately seven am Eastern time, ICE was conducting targeted
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: surveillance on the last known address of an illegal alien
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: with a final order of removal. An illegal alien departed
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: the residence in a vehicle. ICE law enforcement attempted to
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: conduct a vehicle stop. The vehicle attempted to flee the scene,
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: and fearing for public safety, an officer discharged his weapon.
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: The reason I emphasized this is because in previous cases
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: they've insisted that the officer was actually in danger and
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: that was the justification for the shooting. Here they said
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: they feared for public safety and that they fired their
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: weapon because of this. Now, this is against any sort
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: of protocol. Also, this particular man, this twenty six year
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: old Columbian, he was not the target of the investigation.
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: So this is just some random guy that they were
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: aggressively pulling over. That is an extraordinary admission here that
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: the officers themselves did not claim to feel in danger. Nevertheless,
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: they shot him anyway. The driver of the vehicle was struck.
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: Emergency services were immediately contacted. He passed away from his injuries.
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: The Biddeford Police Department and FBI responded to the scene.
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: DHSOIG has been notified and like all discharge of firearms,
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: this will be investigated as developing situation and we will
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: update the public when more information is available. Let's go
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: back to C two. This is what a witness on
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: the scene claimed. Daniel Bouchet was getting ready for work
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: Monday morning when he heard what sounded like fireworks going
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: off outside of his home near downtown Biddeford. He rushed
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: to the window, where he saw an SUV trying to
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: ram a small white car in the intersection. Moments later,
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: agents investop the car and pulled the driver out. He
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: was bleeding profusely from the head, Bouchet said later Monday morning,
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: he was talking. He said, I tried to stop. Those
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: appear to have been his final words. If this account
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: is correct. Boucha watched in disbelief as the man's life
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: stop moving as he lay on the ground. He believes
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: he watched him die. What we know about this man
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: not that this really changes anything. Based on the details
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: of the incident. This would not be justified no matter
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: who this was. But what we know of him is
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: as I said before, he was not the target of
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: this operation, So this is just some random man that
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: they're pulling over. He was appears to have been applying
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: for asylum. He had a work permit, He had been
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: issued a Social Security number, which is typical during the
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: asylum process. That doesn't mean he had legal status, but
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: typically the way that this works is your granted a
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: work permitt you can work, you're paying your taxes, that's
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: why you get the social Security number, and then you're
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: waiting for your claim to be adjudicated. This of course
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: caused a major political uproar, major uproar in general in
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: the State of main huge protests. We've got a statement
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: from the Main Ag. We can put that up on
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: the screen C four, basically just indicating that there is
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: going to be an investigation, of thorough investigation. There have
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: also been already significant protests outside of Susan Collins's office
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: and she has put out sager a very sort of
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: milk toast statement here. The shooting in Biddeford requires a
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: full and impartial investigation of what happened. It is my
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: understanding that the Biddeford police have secured the site and
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: that the FBI is investigating. No mention of Ice here whatsoever?
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: You know, the.
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: Most Susan Collins statement you can possibly imagine. And of
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: course many people are pointing out she was the deciding
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: vote on the latest tranch of ICE seventy billion dollars
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: in Ice.
• 49:48
  Speaker 4: Hoel.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: I tell you, I am so shocked by this because
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: I was telling you all behind the scenes. I was
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: in this town. I was in this town, and I'll
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: tell you it's the widest town I've ever been too.
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: So when I saw small proportion of immigrants.
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: I'm and I'm not kidding, like they have a Walmart, grocery,
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: no offense, Spittiford, shout up. I liked it there, like
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: that's where I was charging my car. But it's literally
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: like we're talking about grocery store, a couple of restaurants.
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: It was not a big town. So when I saw
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: Ice shooting in bitter is it Bittiford? Was it? I
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: was just there. This is crazy. Actually, can we put
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: C three back up on the screen, the Ice statement,
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: These guys are hit and we all know it. This
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: is this is a disaster because if you parse this language,
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: when they say ICE was conducting targeted surveillance on a
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: last known address, of an illegal alien. They then say
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: an illegal alien. Do you notice that not the illegal alien.
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: So what they're saying is a different person departed a
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: residence in a vehicle. They then continue about the attempted
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: to conduct a vehicle stop, but this vehicle attempting to
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: flee the scene. Fearing for public safety, it officer discharged
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: this weapon. They missed. This means I was reading some
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: of the initial protocol the You should keep in mind
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: this statement was not issued until six forty one pm yesterday.
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: The shooting took place at seven am. There was also
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: a very noteworthy incident. Stephen Miller was on CNN in
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: the interim between these two. Normally he is the one too.
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: They deserved it. The guy fired his weapon. He said, quote,
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: I have not been briefed on the shooting, which I
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: think we all know that's bullshit. So there are two things.
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: The fact that Miller and the White House did not
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: immediately come out to try to justify it. Two that
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: this Ice statement basically acknowledges two different things. That they
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: were going for a final order of removal against something.
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: Let's explain what that is. Final order of removal means
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: a judge has found like you have no legitimate claim
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: to asylum and you got to go yeah where It's
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: like exactly, it's like you a final order. The legal
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: system has decided like you have no you have no
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: even more recourse, and it's you need to be arrested.
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: Right I'm not. We don't know about the details. This
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: is a different person, as you said, But what they
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: say that is extremely problematic for them is fearing for
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: public safety. I have asked a lawyer, there is no
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: statute of deadly force or fearing for public safety or
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: I guess there has been a very different circumstance in terms.
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: Of it would have to be like it's a murderer
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: and it has a going to commit another crime right now.
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: This is a random guide. We don't even know who
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: it is who we're trying to pull over.
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: So I think I think they're hit. I think this
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: you know this is this is like the Alex Pretty
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: case because and the reason why, again I talked to
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: somebody who was infamiliar with the internal process, is when
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: you took twelve hours, that means that the internal FBI
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: review and the turnover to OIG, they made it so
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: that the initial determination is like there's no way that
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: you had a legitimate fear, and I guess they didn't
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: even try to claim it initially. The second thing, which
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: is very noteworthy in this entire thing, is it took place,
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: as you said in the this could not have happened
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: at a worst possible time for Susan Collins, who was
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: and I'm not you know, but obviously it's a major
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: political issue. Yes, it's main and we're in the middle
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: of the whole Platner situation. This is a disaster for
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: the Republican but Susan Collins was riding high. She has
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: a massive war ch hat's got like thirty million dollars
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: in the bank. Obviously Republicans love a whole Democrats in
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: disarray situation. A lot of the main Democrats and who
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: talks to them? The Platiner people, they're all and they're
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: not furious, but there they feel super dejected. And then this,
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, could you have asked for a greater gift
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: if you are Troy Jackson, Niarofshah or any of these people,
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: every major candidate. I believe we have their statements, right,
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: don't we about all of these c seven? Can we
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: just to show everybody we have multiple of these potentials
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: who are running to replace Graham as the Democratic nominee,
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: who have all come out with Here's Dan Kleeban from
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: main beer company. Ice has been out of control since
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: Trump took office. We're seeing the devastating tragic consequences here
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: in Maine. Is enough is enough? While we wait to
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: learn what happened in Biddeford, A fatal shooting involving federal
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: agents is horrifying and the last thing any maner expects
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: to wake up to. He said, I in the Senate,
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: I will hoote. I will vote to hold Ice accountable
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: and finally provide accountability for murdering people. This shit has
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: to stop. Go to the next one. This was Shanna Bellows.
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: She says federal agents were involved in a fatal shooting
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: in Bideford this morning. Someone is dead. I want to details,
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: but this is the eleventh fatal shooting. It's time to
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: get Ice off of our streets. And then we also
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: have here Troy Jackson, who is the Progressive nominee who
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: straight up says abolish ize solidarity forever. Let's take a
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: listen to that.
• 54:31
  Speaker 8: Hey, everyone, you know we just got the sad news.
• 54:33
  Speaker 8: That it looks like there's been yet another deadly shooting
• 54:36
  Speaker 8: and ICE was involved. This time was right in our
• 54:40
  Speaker 8: backyard in Biddeford. My heart is with the people of Biddeford,
• 54:44
  Speaker 8: the people of Maine. You know, they need answers. We
• 54:48
  Speaker 8: all need answers, and we deserve to know what happened here.
• 54:52
  Speaker 8: So we're going to go down to be with the
• 54:54
  Speaker 8: community in Bideford at Mechanics Pirk at noon. If you're
• 54:57
  Speaker 8: able to please join us.
• 55:00
  Speaker 9: What we need to know is why this escalated, whether
• 55:03
  Speaker 9: body cameras were warn whether those body cameras were activated,
• 55:07
  Speaker 9: and what led to a catastrophic outcome and what has
• 55:11
  Speaker 9: otherwise been described as a routine stop. What must not
• 55:16
  Speaker 9: be allowed to happen is that deaths of this nature,
• 55:19
  Speaker 9: which have become all too common in Donald Trump's America
• 55:23
  Speaker 9: at the hands of federal ICE agents, that those deaths
• 55:27
  Speaker 9: become normalized. That must not be allowed to happen. My
• 55:31
  Speaker 9: question is simple, how many more people must be fatally
• 55:36
  Speaker 9: shot and murdered by ICE agents before we admit that
• 55:41
  Speaker 9: it is time for a change.
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: So that was ni Av Shah, who was a former
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: Biden CDC director. But yeah, this is a political disaster
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: obviously for the Republicans who are in the state, who
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: were riding high. And the fact is is that ICE
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: immediately i mean not acknowledging what exactly what they've done,
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: but not offering any real defense. That's part of the
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: reason why most of the time in the aftermath of
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: these things you can see maga people be like, oh,
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: you deserved it, you know, comply or don seeing some
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: of that, but you're gonna see yah. But you saw
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: it before the ICE statement. And then when ICE itself
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: comes out and is like, yeah, we didn't fear for
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: our life, You're like, okay, you're I mean, they're hit.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: I think that that's it. I mean, there's no there
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: if they can't even claim in the initial justification but
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: they didn't fear and you shot somebody in fear of
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: public safety, good luck in court. I mean it's going
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: to be a real problem. Yeah.
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: Absolutely. And a few other things that are worth noting.
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: I mean, first of all, is very different than how
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: these Ice killings were handled under Christy Nolan. They you know,
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: immediately came out they're domestic terrorists. You know, this is
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: part of some grand Antifa plot. Just inventing details, even
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: knowing that there was a video out there that was
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: going to come out that did not comport with what
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: they were claiming.
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: The facts did not matter.
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: They wanted to use this, as you know, in a
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: tempt to incite and create this portrait of like left
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: wing out of control, et cetera.
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: Here you have a delay.
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: And then an effective acknowledgment, not that we know that
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: they're being truthful, but I mean this is de facto
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: and acknowledgment that they completely fucked up, that this was
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: wildly unjustified, and so that is very different. The other
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: thing that's worth noting is that you know, this comes,
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: these two shootings back to back, now come on the
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: heels of a push to surge the number of arrest
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: to two thousand a day that's been you know, this
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: new quota that's been implemented that they've been pushing for.
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: And so I don't think it's any surprise that in
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: the heels of ICE getting a neutralansh of funding and
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: then the push for this aggressive arrest quota that you
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: have you know, horrifying killings such as this. And then
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: the other thing I mentioned that there were some similarities
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: between these two shootings, one in Houston and now this
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: one in Maine. First of all, both involved you know,
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: motor vehicles, and we've had other incidents as well where
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: ICE has fired or other you know, CBP or other
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: allied agencies have fired in.
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: These motor vehicle stops.
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: The second thing that they have in common is in
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: both instances, the men that they that they shot and
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: killed were not the target of operations. So again these
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: were just I see someone, they look to me like
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: they might be undocumented. I'm going to pull them over
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: in this hyper aggressive way too, which I'll come back
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: to in a moment. And then the third thing, and
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: this is really quite damning, no body cameras in either incident.
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: No body cameras. So the footage we have both from Houston,
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: which has been cobbled together from various like doorbell ring
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: cameras and other security cameras.
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: In the area.
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: And then this footage that we have, which again happens,
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: you know, is from an eyewitness that happens after the
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: shooting has already occurred. None of this is coming from
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: official outlets because either they didn't have body cameras at all,
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: which at this point, what are we doing you have
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: unlimited funding for this agency and you don't even have
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: body cameras.
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: Or there's also.
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: Some reporting that these guys will intentionally leave the body
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: cameras behind or turn them off because they don't want
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: to face that sort of accountability.
• 59:14
  Speaker 3: They don't want.
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: To have that official record of here's how this all
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: went down. We know in a previous case in Chicago,
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: in the killing of Marmar that we covered that it
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: was the body camera footage which really proved that they
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: had completely invented the chain of events, that she was
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: thoroughly vindicated. And so they look at that and they go, Okay, well,
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: we just won't wear them, or we just won't we
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: just won't turn them on, and then we don't have
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: to worry about that level of accountability.
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: I also think to the point about Iran destroying Trump's presidency,
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: the fact is is that they're responding from a position
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: of total weakness. Is that ultimately they previously felt immense
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: popular ground to be able to fight on the issue
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: of immigration. To compare the difference between then and now,
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: but when you see now like how muted their response
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: is the immediate admission of city, not culpability, but.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 3: Of between the lines.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: Again, it's effectively an admission is we went to go
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: capture somebody else, We went to go arrest somebody else.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: Another person came out. There's no claim of like that
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: that they were ever in fear for their lives. That's
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: usually the statement that you read, the officer fearing for
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: his life. It's like, no in fear of public safety,
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: that is, you know, I mean again, like I imagine
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: local PD if somebody put out a statement like that,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: we all know which way that that would go. This
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: is also coming on the heels. I don't know if
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: you saw this. Renee Goods family has reported that all
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: of the information evidence that was in possession of the
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: FEDS was actually turned over to Ministate, SODA state authorities
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: as of yesterday. Also, I do think it's incredibly noteworthy
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: that in the statement that ICE initially note issued that
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: their only mission was a detention of somebody with a
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: final order of removal, which is something that they've been
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: accelerating and been trying to do, which is aka the
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: right way. Right, It's very hard to dispute here. We
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: have somebody who's going through asylum. People know my feelings
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: about asylum, but My point is like, if you have
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: a final removal, there's really not a lot more to discuss. Yeah,
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: the judge has ruled like you have no right to
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: be here and got to go, and so then it's
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: very difficult for activists and others to get all upset
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: about it. So I think you see that they were
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: already and kind of they are already gone back on
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: the way that they were using their tactics. Then when
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: the situation goes bad, they take twelve hours to issue
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: a statement. And then you also have it seems that
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: Mark Wayne Mullen, the DHS secretary, was on the phone
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: to Susan Collins and to Angus Kinning admitting a lot
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: of the problems that were there initially. So I do
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: think it's a huge retrenchment from where they previously were
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: on the issue of immigrant and this also again it
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: highlights to the extent to which all of this together
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: leads to. I mean, you know, in Maine, obviously it's
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: a tiny little state. I was just there literally the
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: you know Rocanna was talking about feeling is race. I'm
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: not saying I discriminated again, obviously it was not, but
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: you feel it when you're in the grod. When you're
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: walking around a grocery store in Beddeford, You're like, man,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: there any anybody else?
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: You know.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: It's like, I'm from Texas, where forty percent of the
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: people are not white, so it's it's it's a weird situation.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: So yeah, to see an ice situated like happen this
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: in Maine, I'm like, oh, man, I can only imagine
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: how this will activate the local population. Yea there, because
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: I mean there were not a ton of political signs
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: up in Maine that I tended to notice, but it
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: is a unique place with a real identity of kind
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: of like leave us alone. You know, we live in
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: this gorgeous homeland and all this is like don't come
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: and bottom wants come to live in New Hampshire, live
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: free or die, almost type five. So to have something
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: like this, I think it's going to be a huge,
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: huge problem. Yeah, on the heels of Platinum dry.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: Well because it also it also just reminds of why
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: Susan Collins for all of her you know, her main
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: niceness and the way that she knows so many people
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: in the state personally, which is what has really been
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: her political teflon is.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: When it comes down to it.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: She provides these key votes for Trump on things like
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: ice funding that the majority of mayners, which is generally
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: a blue state, the majority of maynors overwhelmingly opposed. I mean,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: this is a state that did not vote for Trump,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: and it was not particularly close. So when you have
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: a reminder of hey, this is the these are the
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: sorts of things. This lady, who may seem kind of
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: nice and you may have met her before, this is
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: what she's enabling. Yeah, it's you know, it's it's dire politically,
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: and you know, not that that's the most important thing,
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: but that is an obvious outcome.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: Right, But the tian just can't be ignored. And then
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: that's kind of what I meant, is that the problem
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: for the.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: Because he sticks up on the screenwall Soccer's pocket just
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: so you can see the protests that we're talking about
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: here outside of Collins office.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 7: There you go.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: So this is I think these were actually at Bitddeford
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: at her local Senate office. The reason why I'm bringing
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: this up is because the base, the greatest fear of
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: the Trump administration is not losing the House. They know
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: that's going to happen, but if they lose the House
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: and the Senate, and they really were riding high this
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: week after Platnir dropped out. Is they know not only
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: is impeachment on the table, but that they will never
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: pass a budget period whenever it comes to anything right
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: in tern like war ice, anything that they possibly want
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: to do. So to have an incident like this and
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: so invigorating for the Democrats in Maine at this exact
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: critical moment. It will be used not only to get
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: the nomination, but it will also be boosted for a
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: Maine Democratic Party till up until November and we already
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: still have high gas prices. You also mentioned the incident
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: in Houston where guess what, we just had Ken Paxton
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: get the nomination, who himself is a devunt i say,
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: divisive controversial figure. Well apparently it was in the UK
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: on July fourth. What's up with that? And some Texan
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: in London spotted him in the middle of London on
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: July fourth. What's going on here? Ken?
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 4: So?
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: James Tallarico also I just saw yesterday had put out
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: some new border plan. It's very you know, it's classic.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: You know, we're going to hire more classic like lib
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: immigration stuff. But my point is that sounds okay to
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: a lot of the Democrats currently in Texas, in the
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: middle of what just happened in Houston and without you know,
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: John Cornyn and the respectability and all. This is not
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: a justification. I'm just saying that. Politically same in Texas,
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: that's the true nightmare scenario if things were to go
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: that way. I still don't think they will. I don't
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: think I don't think he's gonna win, but things like this,
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: he has raised tens of millions of dollars. And this
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: also means that the new main candidate, whoever it is,
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: Troy Jackson, who be it, they themselves also will be
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: massively like a massive investment, not just from the Democratic
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: Senatorial Committee, but from grassroots activists and others. So these
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: two things, it's it's a huge problem because a lot,
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: a lot of it had faded up until now. I
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: Ron had been the yeah, yes, it's bad.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: They also, you know, I think you're right about Iran
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: killing his presidency. We've talked about that before, but also
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: post Minneapolis.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 3: You know, I mean that's really true.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: That really was a turning point significantly. I mean that's
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: when you saw his numbers, which he'd kind of held
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: on on immigration, they were like roughly fifty to fifty.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: It's still his best app Yeah, but now he's underwater
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: and everything including that.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 4: You know.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, maybe on if you said just border security,
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: he might still be above water. But on the issue
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: of immigration, that's where you really saw a public change
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: in the way that they were seeing this, because it
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: was unfolding before their eyes in a way that they
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: found to be thoroughly unacceptable.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: And you know, this man in Houston.
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: Who was here, he was who was killed by ice,
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: Like I said, in a similar situation. You know, I
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: don't think the vast majority of Americans, when they were
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: moving in a more hardline immigration direction, even that. And
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: I don't think they thought, like we should prioritize this
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: guy who's been here for thirty six years, who has
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: American citizen kids, who's been you know, a no criminal record,
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: upstanding citizen, et cetera. But even if it was someone
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: who was a recent arrival and who the public might
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: be more comfortable with deportation, they certainly aren't comfortable with,
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: you know, shooting him dead in his in his vehicle.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: And you know, I've just been thinking about, like if
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: I'm you know, a normal person driving my car and
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: I have these unmarked cars aggressively, you know, pull up
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: in front of you and chasing you and trying I
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: don't know that I would be thinking like, oh, it's immigration,
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: I need to pull over. I might be thinking like, what,
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: you know, this person's trying to rob me. They're trying
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: to crash my car. I don't you know. And so
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: that's another dynamic here. We shouldn't be surprised when some
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: of the people who are being targeted, who are again
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: not like there's not a warn now, they're not a target.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: They're just random people like going about their lives that
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: they don't react in the precise ideal manner because because
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: the approach to them is so aggressive and out of
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: the norms of what they've ever experienced before.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 3: Like, I don't know how I would handle that.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: Either, I get it, and I have to be honest,
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: you know, I've had to sit and really think about
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: all this a lot because I believe in very hardline
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: immigration enforcement. I do, and you know, it drives me
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: crazy when people talk about, oh, twenty six year old
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: Biteford man, I'm like, no, he's from Columbia, and he
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: was applying for a asylum like, you're not from Biddeford,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: actually you move there and you're claiming asylum. And by
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: the way, in my opinion, ninety nine point five percent
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: of asylum claims are bullshit. Now at the same time,
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: and this gets to the ultimate tension. I think for
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: a lot of my politics is a protection of American liberty,
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: but also order, an order lee society, and I don't
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: I'm part of the reason why I was so upset
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: about the Biden situation was it was disorderly, not just
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: at the border. There is chaos when tens of millions
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: of people are running around your country illegally. It's insanity.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: And not to even mention this social chaos of like
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: people who don't speak English and all that. And I've
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: gotten into all of this like over and over again.
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: The Federal Reserve report which recently came out talking about
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: immigration's effect on housing not the number one issue, but
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: it was certainly was in terms of supply and demand.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: At the same time, you know, the way these guys
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: act is absolutely insane, and that's part of the problem
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: that we've seen. There are a lot of social ills
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: as well. Whenever it comes to the way I mean
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: in terms of the media coverage. And remember even the
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: whole Alex Peretti situation, I said it was a disaster,
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: not disaster, was a completely undusified They executed him in
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: the street undustly. He also was like a genuine violent
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: left wing activist, like it was on camera of him
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: kicking and destroying property. That part I will never be
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: and find acceptable. So it is an ultimate tension. I
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: do think a lot of people who share my politics
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: and feelings on this situation. Whenever it comes to Trump,
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: there's just no longer a benefit of the doubt right
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: whenever it comes to Ice and to the administration. Because
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: in early days we could say look, not only we
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: like literally we voted for this, like the sign said
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: mass deportation. We've also know that many of these activists
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: and others will lie flagrantly about the way that things
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: go down. They'll never you know, they'll find a guy
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: who's a murdered rapist and still say, oh, he was
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: an angel or whatever and never should have gone anywhere.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: But now after you know, Houston and Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Seacott,
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: that was my personal breaking point. You're like guys like,
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: you know, you can't take any of this shit to
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: the bank. So then, now where do we go from here?
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean my greatest fear is I
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: think we're gonna swing completely in the other direction, like
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: literal anarchy. And you're like, okay, I mean, you know,
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: abolish ice, fine, but you know, somebody's got arrest the
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: criminal who's supposed to be here illegally. How's that going
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: to work? Is there going to be a political constituency
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: for that? Are we just going to allow people across
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: the border? Are we just going to give everybody's citizenship,
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: We're not going to give a shit if anybody speaks
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: English anymore. That seems to be the way that things
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: are trending. And I do think, you know, that's a look,
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: that's a Democratic party problem. They got to figure all
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: of that out. But I don't know. It has really
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: made me reassess though, because like Flock, for example, I
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: think fifteen years ago I would have supported flock cameras.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: I really do, because yeah, I mean even today, I
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: passed two fent heads on the way here. It drives
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: me crazy when you walk my kid around and there's
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: a guy taking a shit in the middle of the
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: street literally fills me with rage. I'm like, why do
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: I pay property tax and income tax? And this is
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: the nonsense that I have around here. But I also
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: know with the resumpt of this surveillance state and others,
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: it's like, how do we have the balance where we
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: have a private company and shot what is it called
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: shot spotter or whatever? Again ten years ago would have
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: been like, yeah, that's good, But I also know that
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: we're all literally under mass AI surveillance. Yeah, and under
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: oligarical capitalism where these private companies have it's not even
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: the state necessarily with any democratic input. I know this
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: is all very long winded, but this I mean, I
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, this is how we are and
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: have to talk in the future because we all got
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: to live together.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: I appreciate you taking the time to explain the way
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: your thinking has evolved over the course of the administration.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: And I don't know if this is the case or
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: this is just me projecting my own cares and concerns
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: about the country onto other people. But you mention the
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: way that you're you know, you're thinking on this AI
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: German surveillance is different from how it might have been
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: in a previous time. And I also think that the
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: rise of AI and the clear demonstration of the power
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: of these tech oligarchs, I think it also diminishes the
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: the the I guess animated impact of immigration, the sense
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: that this is like the top issue, because when you
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: look at these tech oligarchs, they're out there saying like,
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: we literally want to replace all of human labor. That
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: takes some of the staying out of like Jose is
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: going to take your job in the kitchen. You know,
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: It's like, okay, we could debate that whether that's true
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: or not, but we know for sure these guys are
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: like out and out telling us and they have way
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: more power than Jose in the kitchen does. So I
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: think that that also shifts the landscape. I've also said
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: that I think that the Epstein files and the way
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: that that created sort of a weird class consciousness also
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: changes things. But the aipiece in general, when you have
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: the richest and most powerful people, not just in the country,
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: in the world who are like, our mission in life
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: is to make it so you don't have a job,
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: and we're going to buy up all the assets so
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: you have to run from US and you have no choice.
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: Then it's sort of like, Okay, well, you know, I
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: immigration is no longer my top issue. Dealing with these
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: people seems like the number one priority for now. So
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: I don't know if that changes the landscape of the
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: sense around this either.
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: But I don't know to class consciousness point. I mean,
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: it's going to be hard to have class consciousness if
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: we don't all speak the same language. And I know
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: people get uncomfortable about this, but it's true, like if
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: you don't speak English in my I mean, I think
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: you've said before there should be English language requirement for citizenship,
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: Like I just see how I do not see how
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: we can all live together. I wouldn't don't speak the
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: same lefe if.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: It was me designing it, I wouldn't require it. But
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: it would be a compromise I'm willing to make, is
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: what I would say.
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: But like talk to each other.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 3: You know, But here's what I would say.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: It's like, you know what we've seen over the past,
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: and I you know, I'm not looking to get in
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: enough yet another immigration by with you here, because I
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: am just interested in hearing the way you're thinking is evolved.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: But what we've seen over the course of the past
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: number of decades is that actually the assimilation process happens
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: more rapidly than it did in previous generations. You have
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: fewer of these ethnic enclaves where people just live in
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: their own world and they never learn the language, et cetera. Usually,
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: you know, the parents are immigrants, they may not learn
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: the language fully. The kids are American and basically assimilate
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: completely to American culture, for better or worse, by the way,
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: which you know, sometimes American culture loses something from the
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: original immigrant tradition.
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but if you don't want it, then don't come here.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: You know, this is this is who we are. Yeah again,
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: I don't. It doesn't need to get into a whole debate.
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: The problem I have is that when we have vast
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: enclaves and then no expectation around English, then you end
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: up in Miami people who are literally born and raised Myami.
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: They don't speak English when you land in Miami, and yeah, look,
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: maybe this is just me. I feel like I should
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: drive everybody crazy. And you call an uber and the
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: guys like, I've lived here for forty years and I
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: don't speak a lick of English. You're like, this is insane.
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, is that going to be all of America?
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 7: Now?
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: I don't want it to be that way. I used to.
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: I thought most of us agreed it shouldn't be that way,
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: Like there should be some expectation of citizenship and of
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: common like understanding that usually is how the citizenship process
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: has been for all time. I don't think it's going
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: to be like that in the next administration if it's
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: a democratic administration, and I mean, honestly, that scares the
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: shit out of me. But that's the question ultimately of
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: in the future, we are going to have to come
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: to some sort of understanding of what public order of citizenship,
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: of what public order citizenship and immigration itself as an
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: understanding of what it means to be American. That will
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: be the biggest fight ever I think actually in politics,
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: and the fact that I will always be enraged to
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: the Trump administration for doing this is for handling not
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: just on war, because I mean, war was the ultimate
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: betrayal in my opinion, but here in this one particular
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: one which is under discussed is just like the George W.
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: Bush administration by invading a rocket destroying its entire cause,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: like there are genuine people out there who had supported
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: the Bush administration and the other things that have freely
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: admitted that the war in Iraq killed any of their
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: ability to make a case for many of the other
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: things that w had run on. I feel like that's
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: now the case with immigrat. It's been so disaster, like
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: people are basically going to say, well, we tried it
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: your way, the hard line way, and this is what happened,
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: so we have to go in another direction. And I
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: don't think it needed to be like this at all.
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: In fact, I know it didn't need to be like this.
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: I've spoken with some people in the Admin, and by
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: doing this, they have created a situation where I actually think,
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: you know, crazily enough, the worst case scenarios that they
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: would always say that they're like the Left is going
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: to do in twenty twenty three. I'm like, you made
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: that a reality, dude, Like you actually made it so
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: that that is now probably what is going to happen.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: And I don't know if there's come back from it,
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: to be honest, after seeing things like this, because I
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: don't blame people who are like, hey, we voted and
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: then we listened to the way you said, and people
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: started getting shot, and it was it all became totally nuts.
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: And you know, the current right wing response to a
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: lot of people who are like myself is you're a pussy.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: You know, this is what it takes. And I'm like, well, actually,
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: I don't really think. So there's a lot of different
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: ways that you could have gone about this, which I've
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: outlined here many times here on the show. And they're like, oh,
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: that would have been you know, oh that's you know,
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: cuck behavior or whatever.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: I'm like, all right, well, congratually by handing the reins
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: over to Stephen Miller really gave a lot of credence
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: to liberal argument that this is like, you know, white
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: nationalists to its core when the only asylum seekers that
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: you're admitting are white South Africans. And even Trump is
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: like Steven Miller would want the entire country to look
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: like him effectively, but you know.
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: That even as a Jew. So it's like it's complicated
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: whenever it comes to Steven. I actually think it's a
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: little too reductive. What I would say the bigger problem
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: with the administration on immigration is is they went for
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: all out enforcement without actually doing without without in the
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: most convenient for the way for them possible. What I
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: mean by that is super easy to go and arrest people.
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: You know, it's not easy is to is to either
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: indict and or audit Marriott Hotels and say why are
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: you guys employing all of these illegals all their big donors, or.
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: To build up the government apparatus mechanisms that would be
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: required to for example, handle asylum in like a reasonable
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: time frame where it's not just you know, we're going
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: to go, let's just go round people up at the
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: Lowser home depot.
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: The other the mandatory verify guess what that would destroy
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: multiple fortune five hundred companies. I still support it.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: I don't care, but you know, and you know who
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: would oppose that Trump No, I know that Immer Labor. Yeah,
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: And just to one Lingering thought that to go back
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: to your Texas point, you know, there is an assumption,
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 2: was an assumption in Texas that Republicans would hang on
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: to something approaching the Trump margins with Latinos in Texas.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: That's what the jerrymander was based on. And there was
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: just this poll of Hispanic business owners in Texas who
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: now favor Talla Rico and part of what they're saying
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: is basically like, yeah, the immigration stuff is a problem
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: for me as as a business owner, but also, you know,
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: in sort of like cultural solidarity. So in any case,
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: you know, very too tragic, unnecessary and criminal killings of
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: immigrants here once again, and very much potential political backlash.
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: I think unfolding in states that are crucial for the
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: Republicans cimat.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: It will be a big, big problem. I actually think
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: this could be. I'm not going to call it on
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: Susan Collins because she's always been wiye and able to
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: but I don't see a path, you know, if they not, I.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: Feel the same way. I think things are two partisan.
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 4: Now.
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 3: Kyle and I disagree on this.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: He's he's concerned that, you know, with Platiner being pulled
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: in the messiness, et cetera. But I just think she
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: was able to hang on for a long time based
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: on just person only knowing people in the state. I
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: just think partisan like hardening has gotten to the point
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: now where that is not going to be sufficient, and
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: almost no matter who they nominate.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: That works if you're a governor. It doesn't work when
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: you're in the US Senate and you've got to take
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: national votes, like, that's the problem is because everything is
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: national now, this whole Oh but I got a bridge
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: built in Augusta. People are like, listen, I don't give
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: a shuit.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And how many more Trump insanities is she going
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: to have to? Like, I'm concerned her way through were
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: probably going to get another one on Thursday when he
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: does whatever he's going to do with the election. Shit
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: and New War, I mean all this stuff. So and
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: she's going to have to answer for all of that
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: throughout the campaign.
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 3: It's going to be very
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: Difficult for her to She supports the wars, Yeah, I
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: guess that one's not a problem for