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Episode 119 - 9/13/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 119 of the All Systems Go Sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Friday. Our work week has come to an end
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and we have a huge weekend of college football, NFL, and
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that's right biting back in our lives.
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So get ready for a big weekend here today guys and I have a lot
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to talk about and share with you on today's podcast, including a
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three. We got a lot of stuff.
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Let me just tell you that right now I got a three pack of sweats
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for tonight. So there are two college
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football games I have a play on both of them also have a Major
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League Baseball bat for you. I know it's a big slate, just
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kind of wanted to be selective and found one bet that caught my
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eye at a good team on a good price.
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Then looking toward the weekend. I have 4 college football games
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that caught my eye that I'll be betting and I'll be explaining
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or talking about today on the pod.
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So for college football games as well as of course, our biting
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system match for for Saturday, which is a very, very
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interesting reverse line move. Low bets, higher dollars, big
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youth advantage so we can get our winning streak from 12 up to
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13 straight and then three NFL games for you.
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Trying to pick my spots here. Found a couple sides in one
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total and also invite you all to join us on the live stream.
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The Sunday sweats live stream, James Santor and myself from
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Rhythm. It's powered by rhythm.
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We'll be going over all the late moves.
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I'll be adding in some NFL player props and we'll be doing
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that actually together in person in Boston.
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So James took the trip from Philly up to Beantown and we'll
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be doing a live stream together on Twitter, 11:00 AM Eastern
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Time on Sunday. So hope to see you guys there
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now before we dive into all of our sweats for today and the
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weekend. Annoying night last night, guys.
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One in 3 -, 2.1 units. We had a nice hit with Khalil
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Shakur going over his receiving prop over 40 1/2.
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Our rhythm predicted what, 55 1/2?
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And he pretty much landed right around there.
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So we got our Shakur over. But after that, it was all
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disappointment #1 Miami Dolphins.
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What a pathetic, disgusting performance last night.
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Miami. I'm not going to, you know, say
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it was the wrong play because we had a line move.
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We had a good low bets, higher dollars.
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We had historical results. Miami just didn't come to play
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at all. Two, it was terrible through 3
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picks. Then he got hurt.
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And do we even, have we even seen the end of two?
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I don't know, all those concussions.
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I think you got a question whether or not you want to
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continue playing football at that point, but really couldn't
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get anything going in Miami. And also Mike McDaniel, I mean,
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I know this is like, you know, you know, crying over spilled
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milk. But Mike McDaniel, this
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offensive guru, what was your game plan like not to
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incorporate Hill or Waddle and just run it every time?
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So I was super down on the Dolphins.
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They let us down last night. Sadly, Dolphins could not come
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through. Also, we got a bad beat on the
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cook over 19 and half receiving yards because very early in the
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first quarter he had a 17 yard catch and then nothing the rest
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of the way. So he missed that by three
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yards. And then the real Backbreaker
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last night. You know, we're looking at OK,
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you know, one and two in the in the in the NFL game.
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At least we can get Texas State, right?
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Well, of course Texas State rips our heart out and dances to the
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dances to the beat because Texas State had a 14 point lead
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closing in on half time. They blew, you know, they blew
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it up. They gave up the lead.
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They end up losing by three. Their quarterback was great
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until the fourth quarter when he started to turn it over and we
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beat the closing line on that one.
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A lot of books closed like 2 1/2 or three.
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We got a decent money line price.
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So remember that was a dog to fave pretty much checking off
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every box. You know, the drunk guys at the
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bar who just said take Arizona State, they got the last lap
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there. So kind of a frustrating night
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last night. And of course that's sports
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betting. Sometimes the breaks go your
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way, sometimes they don't. But the model never changes.
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We stick with it because we know it works long term.
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So without be with that being said, let's start to get into
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our sweats here for today. Let's try to have a Good Friday
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as we steam into the weekend. So in terms of kind of starting
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off here, I want to start off with UFC actually, because I got
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a full slate. We got a lot of football to talk
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about. I do have a baseball game, but
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when you're 12 and O 12 straight in UFCI think we should start
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with UFC here. So if you didn't know, we have
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another big slate in the Octagon here for tomorrow.
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This is UFC3O6. It's in the sphere in Vegas.
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If you don't know about it, I it's like a bucket list thing
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for me. I got to go see a concert or a
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sporting event or just figure out what's going on in the
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sphere. It's pretty awesome.
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It almost feels like you're on like Mars or on the on the moon
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or something. But anyway, UFC3O6 in the sphere
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and I'm going to focus on the Co main event, the women's
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flyweight Co main event between Alexa Grasso and Valentina
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Shevchenko. Now, little rehash here in terms
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of people who maybe are new to the pod or you know, don't
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really have a model in the UFC. Here's my model.
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I'm looking to combine basically the tail, the tape with what the
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market is telling me. So I'm looking for fighters or
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buyers as I like to call them, who are younger, taller, have a
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longer reach, and more importantly, have a line move
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and a good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
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So I landed on Alexa Grasso. I'm going Alexa Grasso.
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Shop around. I got Alexa Grasso at -140 and
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she's checking off quite a few boxes for me.
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So the first box that we're going to check off, let's start
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with the data. Got that e-mail from my buddy
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John Ewing, like he always does, you know, death tax, death taxes
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and the UFC biting splits at 9:00 AM and every Friday.
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But anyway, open up the bet splits and the first thing I do
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is look at the percentage of bets in dollars.
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I start basically from right to left.
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A lot of people start with the names of the teams or names of
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the fighters and go left to right.
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I go the other way because I don't want to, you know, know
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the fighters and maybe, oh, I bet on that, him or her and I
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lost or I won. Your bias starts to seep in.
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So I start with the percentages. First thing I noticed about
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Alexa Grasso is she's got a great bet split.
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Alexa Grasso is only getting 42% of bets but 68% of dollars.
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So why is that important? On the one hand, she's
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contrarian in the Co main event, only getting 42% of bets.
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But she's not just contrarian. She has a evidence of real smart
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money in her favor, only getting 4 out of 10 bets, but nearly
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seven out of $10. That tells us we have a low
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bets, higher dollars, sharp contrarian bet split.
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Another angle here would be basically fading a trendy dog.
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The trend trendy dog here is her opponent, Valentina Shevchenko.
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So if nearly 60% of bets are on Shevchenko, you would think,
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hey, you know, maybe the line moves in her favorite.
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No, it's going toward Grasso. So Grasso had 42% bets, 68%
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dollars. And here's the other key.
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You got to have the line moving in favor of the person getting
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low bets, higher dollars. So that's what, excuse me, what
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we're seeing here with Grasso. Grasso open at -120 Grasso is
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now up to -140 So low bets, higher dollars, reverse line
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move, fade the trendy dog lines moving in her favor.
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Now let's get to the tail of tape.
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Here's the big one here. They're both 5 foot four and
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they both have a 66 inch reach. But the youth advantage is with
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Grasso. Grasso is 31 years old.
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Her opponent, Shevchenko is 36 years old.
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So we're starting to check off a lot of boxes here.
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Low bets, higher dollars, sharp contrarian, reverse line move,
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fade the trendy dog. Big youth advantage here.
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And one thing one of my mentors in the UFC a long time ago told
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me is fade fighters who are 35 or older and fade fighters who
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are five years older than their their opponent.
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So it'll be both fade spots of Shevchenko Then like to do a
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little Google research and kind of get kind of some insight into
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both fighters. The first thing I notice is that
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this is a trilogy fight. You know, this is Rocky 3.
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Basically, this is Shevchenko Grasso 3.
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Grasso won the first one and it was a draw in the second one.
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And I was reading about how in rematches, typically you see a
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big edge toward the younger fighter.
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And really the I the idea there is, especially if you know the
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younger fighter has, you know, either one, both or one, at
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least one, Basically, it's it's one O and one in favor of Grasso
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member. She won the first one.
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It was a draw the second one. But I was reading about how in
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trilogies or rematches, it's a big edge to the younger fighter
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the second time around. You have the experience, but
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also you have the youth advantage and you know how to
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attack your opponent. Grasso is reading.
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She's at her peak. She's actually the champion
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defending her her flyweight belt right now and she's improving,
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you know, in the in the peak and prime of her life at 31 years
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old, Shevchenko 36, She's getting older, she's been
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getting worse each bout. She's been making mistakes.
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She's kind of not as technical and as as sound with her kind of
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her decision making. And also, if you look at
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significant strikes per minute, this is important here because
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if it does go to the scorecard and it goes to the judges, you
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know, if you can put more offense out there in terms of
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significant strikes, typically that's going to be a feather in
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your cap to win the bout. So significant strikes per
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minute, we have Grasso at 4.67 versus Shevchenko at 3.28.
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Grasso, by the way, I was reading about how she's the much
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better boxer. So this better striker, she's
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improving on the ground. And she also hasn't lost about
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since 2019. So we kind of put all these
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pieces together. The most important pieces to me
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are the youth advantage, 31 years old versus 36 and really
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the market low bets, higher dollars, reverse line move
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again, only 42% bets, 68% money and that line move -120 up to
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-140 So you add it all up here guys.
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Let's see if we can extend our winning streak to 13 straight.
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I am on Alexa Grasso and the Co main event.
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I got her on the money line at -140 pointing.
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Keep on cruising. One bet for you in Major League
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Baseball for tonight. And it is a team that is near
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and dear to our heart, or at least my heart and a few of your
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hearts, the snakes, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
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Diamondbacks are sitting at 82 wins.
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I've been screaming at the mountaintops.
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I have over 83 1/2 wins. So we need two more to cash this
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over. And I like Arizona tonight and
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it's a good value play at a short price with a lot of
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advantages here in favor of Arizona.
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So it's a 9:40 PM Eastern Time game.
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Milwaukee Brewers at the Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks pitching
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match up here. We have Freddy Peralta going for
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Milwaukee. He is 10 and eight with a 3.81
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ERA. He'll be opposed by Eduardo
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Rodriguez, who they sign in the offseason.
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The lefty used to pitch for the Red Sox.
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He kind of was hurt, came back. Right now he is 2 and two with a
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5.83 ERA. So what are we seeing across the
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market here? Well, we've seen a line move in
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favor of the aforementioned Snakes this game open with
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basically a very short number, a very short -110 favorite for
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Arizona at home. And we've seen Arizona now get
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steamed up all the way to -120 so about a $0.20 steam or a 10
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cent steam move in favor of Arizona -110 up to -120 The
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other angle here is really good bet split.
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Arizona's only getting 62% of bets, but 78% of dollars.
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So really good low bets, higher dollars bets split.
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I'll be banking on the offense of Arizona.
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Arizona's hitting 263 on the year, 191 homers, 802 runs
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scored. Milwaukee's only hitting 249
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with 162 homers and 699 runs scored.
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Also we have Arizona a non division favorite, lack of
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familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
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And we also have a rest versus tired advantage because you had
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the Arizona keep seeing Cardinals.
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They got football in the brain. Arizona Diamondbacks who were
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off yesterday versus Milwaukee, who played yesterday, played the
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Giants and now has to travel. Arizona is coming off a day off
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and prior to that they had two home games against Texas.
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So no travel involved for Arizona at home with a day off
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versus the Milwaukee Brewers who are on the road and off to
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travel with no days off. So rest first.
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Tired in favor of Arizona. Arizona, by the way, is 49 and
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25 as a chalk favorite. That's a third best chalk record
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in baseball, a 12% ROI. Last 10 games Arizona is hitting
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292. Last 10 games from Milwaukee,
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they're hitting 176. Another little angle here, if
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you look at Freddy Peralta, his numbers in the year are good 10
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and eight 3.81 ERA. But in September he has an ERA
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of over 5 1/2. And the Arizona Diamondbacks are
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the 5th best team hitting batting average wise against
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right-handed pitchers, they're hitting 254.
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So -110 to -120 good price on a good team.
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I'm going to take Arizona with their rest.
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First tired advantage. Give me the snakes.
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I got Arizona at -120 keep on cruising.
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Couple college football games here for tonight.
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Then we'll talk about the card for Saturday, and then we'll
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talk about the card for Sunday in the NFL.
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So two games tonight. We have a 7:00 game UNLV against
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Kansas, and we have an 8:00 game Arizona against Kansas State.
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So let's talk about UNLV. Kansas first.
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Now, this one is interesting to me because we saw an early move
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toward Kansas. Kansas opened as low as -7 got
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bet all the way up to -9 1/2. But now that you're at 9 1/2,
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you're starting to see some juice back to where it may go
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back to 9:00. So at first it's like, OK, you
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know, lines going to Kansas here makes sense.
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Kansas comes in one in one. UNLV is 2 and O.
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But Kansas is kind of the bigger name program at home, so that
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makes sense. But then I was looking at the
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best split and it's basically 5050 down the middle, which told
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me, OK, looks like Kansas is taking in smart money, but I'm
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seeing buyback on UNLV and UNLV is only getting 48% of bets but
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69% of dollars. So this is one of those games
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for me in terms of the spread where I'm going to lay off.
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I think if you're betting Kansas, yes, you're with the
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line move, but you're getting the worst of the number.
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If you're on UNLV, you have a good bet split, but yet it's
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really not a sharp play. It's really just a kind of a bet
13:47
split play and an inflated line value play.
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So I don't really want anything to do with the spread.
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Instead, I'm going to take a shot on the total here guys.
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I'm going to root for points. I'm going to go over 57 1/2
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points now. This one first jumped out to me
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in terms of the bet split. Right now you're getting 6066%
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of bets, but 79% of money is on the over.
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And we have seen this total, even though at first glance it
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looks like it hasn't moved at all.
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It opened at 57 1/2. It's still 57 1/2.
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But this is important looking at line history, like if you're
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looking at a live odds page, you're going to see open in
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current numbers and it looks like, oh, 57 1/2 open, 57 1/2
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still. But if you can click on the box
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that shows the odds for each book, a lot of live odds pages
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will give you a full line history.
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So it'll show you just not open and current, but every move in
14:34
between. And the thing that I noticed is
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that every move in between was toward the over open 57 1/2.
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It got up as high as 59. Now it's back down to 57 1/2.
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So reading between the lines, it looks like all the adjustments
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were upward and the current price is juiced up at a lot of
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shops. Over 57 half at -110 -, 115.
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The other angle that I was looking at is 2 pretty good
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offenses. UNLV is averaging 50 points a
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game. Kansas is averaging 32.5 points
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per game. And these teams did play in a
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bowl game last year. Kansas won 49 to 36.
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So again, at first glance it's like, hey, total hasn't moved,
15:11
but actually is only stay the same or gone up before coming
15:14
back down. Like in other words, it's not
15:16
like this was 57 half down to 56 back up to 57 at that would be,
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you know, basically movement liability only toward the under.
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This is only been movement liability toward the over with a
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good bet split with two good offenses.
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The last time they played not that long ago, they went way
15:32
over this total. So I'm going to root for this
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over guys. I'm going to go UNLV Kansas over
15:36
57 1/2. Next one for you, Arizona and
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Kansas State. Now this one's intriguing.
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Both teams are two and O both are ranked.
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Arizona is 20th. Kansas State is 14th in terms of
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the side we open this game. Kansas State -7 1/2 and the line
15:52
is down to seven. And a lot of these sevens are
15:55
juiced up toward Arizona, like it may go down to 6 1/2.
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The one thing I don't love though, is that Arizona's kind
16:00
of a trendy dog. They're getting 58% of spread
16:02
bets, but I got to respect the line is moving in their favor.
16:06
But Kansas State would be contrarian, only getting 42% of
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bets. And I have a couple systems.
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In terms of when 2 ranked teams. You guys might remember this one
16:13
from last year. 2 ranked teams take face off, take the home
16:17
favorite, 60% against the spread since 2016.
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Friday night home favorites of seven or more are 55% ATS since
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2015. So this is another layoff for
16:26
me. Lions going to Arizona, but
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they're a little popular and my historical matches tell me to
16:31
lay it with Kansas State. So what am I going to do?
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Once again, I'm not going to touch the side.
16:35
I'm going to go with the total here guys.
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I'm going to root for another very high scoring game.
16:40
This total has been steamed up and open at 56 1/2.
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It's all the way up to 60 1/2. So it's been adjusted 4 points
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here upward. But it's got a really good bet
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split only 69% of bets, but 81% of money is on the over.
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And if you look at both these offenses, pretty high scoring.
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Arizona's averaging 41 1/2 points a game.
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Kansas State's averaging 37 1/2. The lines also moving toward
17:06
Arizona, you know, the seven half down to seven.
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So competitive game back and forth.
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That sort of thing bodes well for an over.
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But here's where I really got excited to play the over.
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On the one hand, if you're playing over 60 and a half,
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you're like, man, I'm not getting the best of it.
17:19
I could have gotten a much better price.
17:21
Like if this lands anywhere 57 to 60 and I lose an over 60 1/2,
17:25
but the early guys get the, you know, early bird gets the worm
17:28
there, that'll be obviously frustrating for me.
17:31
But I'm looking at this juice. It looks like it may go to 61.
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And then here's a betting system match that I uncovered When you
17:37
are playing a Friday night game in which the total rises at
17:41
least three points, the over is 68 and 5058 percent, 11% ROI
17:46
since 2005 S On the one hand, it's like, hey, clearly the
17:49
lines getting hit to the over. Can you play it now because
17:51
you're getting the worst of it. Maybe you want to lay off
17:53
because you're value minded. I respect that.
17:56
But this angle tells us that when it rises so much, typically
17:59
it's for a reason and it flies over.
18:01
So both games, guys, I'm rooting for points.
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I'm going UNLV, Kansas over 57 1/2 and I'm going Arizona,
18:07
Kansas State over 60 and 1/2. Can we get at least one?
18:11
Can we get 2? That is the goal.
18:14
Now over to the Saturday slate in college football.
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I would highly recommend checking out my Twitter account
18:20
tomorrow morning because I will be writing a updated sharp
18:22
report for all tomorrow's games. But here are a few games that
18:25
I'll be sweating for tomorrow. First one, LSU at South
18:30
Carolina. Now this one is is intriguing
18:32
here for a couple different reasons.
18:33
Number one is the fact that LSU is a huge public play.
18:38
So if you look at LSU right now, they open on the road as a 7
18:41
point favorite and LSU is actually across the market
18:46
getting 71% of bets. So everyone's on LSU.
18:50
But what's the line doing guys? The line is going down towards
18:53
South Carolina. We've opened -7 we're down to 6
18:57
1/2 some books even. I just saw a lot a move go down
19:00
to six. I was able to grab the seven at
19:03
plus 7 -, 120. And literally as I'm looking at
19:06
my odds page and talking about this game, I just saw it get
19:09
down to six. So that's a good sign.
19:11
It keeps going to South Carolina.
19:12
Not great if you haven't gotten a better number at this point.
19:14
So at this point, at least try to get a 6 1/2 if you can get it
19:17
again, some books even down to six if you're down to six, like
19:20
I even see two books going to maybe 5 1/2.
19:22
Man, this is this is kind of crazy the game.
19:24
The cocks are getting steamed right now.
19:26
But anyway, guys, either way, Publix over LSU lines moving
19:29
toward South Carolina. They're only getting 29% of bets
19:33
unranked versus ranked. It's always a buy low sell high
19:35
for me. Unranked versus ranked is 16 and
19:38
11 ATS 59% to start the year. They're also a conference dog,
19:42
both from the SEC kind of like divisional dogs in the NFL.
19:46
Built in familiarity levels, the playing field benefits the team
19:49
getting points. This is the second most heavily
19:51
back game of the day so far for Saturday.
19:54
And you're contrarian on the 29% side.
19:57
And then here are some rhythm predictions.
20:00
Here Rhythm has a prediction of South Carolina +3 and plus 3.4.
20:08
So again, it fell 7 to 6 1/2. Now down to six.
20:11
Not getting that that key number of seven anymore, but rhythms
20:15
got a 3.4. My Josh rhythm model is South
20:18
Carolina +4. So either way, that's an edge
20:21
with the betting market moving toward the Cox.
20:24
So I'm going Cox here, guys. Cox in the points.
20:27
Give me the game Cox. I got a 7, but again, 6 1/2 six
20:30
now as this line is moving toward South Carolina.
20:33
Next one for you, Pittsburgh and WVU.
20:36
You know, I love to sing Take Me Home country roads, Big John
20:39
Denver guy, but I'm going to go the other way.
20:41
I'm going Pittsburgh here, guys. I've seen nothing but sharp
20:44
movement in favor of Pittsburgh. Now this game open with West
20:48
Virginia not listed as a 2 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
20:52
I saw one book that maybe an opener of like closer to 3 or 4,
20:56
but either way -2 1/2 W Virginia.
20:58
Everyone's betting West Virginia, they're getting 70% of
21:01
spread bets, yet the lines fallen toward Pittsburgh.
21:04
So a lot of these two and a halfs are either still 2 1/2,
21:07
but now they're down to two. I see one book down to 1 1/2.
21:10
Shop around, you got it. Got to get the best number that
21:13
you can. But I was able to find a book
21:15
still with Pitt at plus 2 1/2 at -120 Pitts only getting 31%
21:20
bets, but 42% dollars. And my rhythm model has PIT plus
21:24
0.3 points. My Josh model actually has PIT
21:28
favored by 1.6 points. So kind of see what we're doing
21:31
here. We're looking at the market,
21:33
we're applying the rhythm projections and hopefully the
21:35
the rhythm predictions kind of go with or coincide our backup
21:38
and support what the markets telling us.
21:41
But again, similar to everyone on LSU line going to South
21:44
Carolina, everyone in West Virginia lines going to
21:46
Pittsburgh. So I'm going Panthers here guys.
21:48
I was able to get the Panthers at plus 2 1/2.
21:50
Again, looking at around A2 or even a 1 1/2 at this point.
21:54
Next one, Purdue. I'm kicking myself for not
21:56
taking Purdue earlier. I even wrote about it for
21:58
visa.com on Tuesday with my early sharp report.
22:01
I should have jumped on Purdue getting 10, excuse me, or even
22:04
10 1/2, but boy, the steam continues in favor of Purdue.
22:09
Purdue is at homie, it's Notre Dame.
22:10
Notre Dame is ranked. Obviously.
22:12
Notre Dame had that terrible loss against Northern Illinois
22:15
where they were favored by I think 28 or something and lost
22:18
straight up. But anyway, Purdue opened -12
22:20
1/2 or sorry, Notre Dame opened -12 1/2 at Purdue.
22:24
Immediately got down to 10 1/2. Guys.
22:26
Purdue is now down to plus 8 1/2.
22:29
Someone's even down to +8. So line keeps moving to Purdue
22:33
even though only 38% of bets are on Purdue.
22:36
So why is line keep going to Purdue with everyone's betting?
22:38
Notre Dame tells me more smart money is pouring in on Purdue.
22:42
Reverse line move dog, low total.
22:44
So they're a dog of, you know, touchdown or more.
22:46
Total in this one is only 47. They're unranked, first ranked
22:50
by law. Opportunity and rest.
22:52
First tired system match. Purdue played a game and then I
22:54
believe had an an off or a bye week.
22:58
So rested ready to go. Extra week of game planning
23:01
against Notre Dame and we get to our rhythm system matches.
23:04
Rhythm has Purdue plus 3.6 and my Joshua the model has Purdue
23:08
plus 5.6. So either way, line keeps going
23:12
to Purdue with a good rhythm model edge.
23:14
So I'm going to go Purdue here. Guys, I'm I'm annoyed, it's
23:17
always annoying when you write about a game and identify a
23:19
sharp move, but you don't bet it and then you can't get the
23:21
number you wanted. But I'm still going to take the
23:23
8 1/2 with Purdue. Really just continued smart
23:26
money, no buyback. Give me the Boilermate.
23:28
Let's make some Boilers this weekend.
23:29
I'm on Purdue at plus 8 1/2 now. Another game that caught my eye
23:33
late, TCU. TCU is at home against UCF.
23:37
This one is a 7:30 PM Eastern Time game.
23:39
This is a kind of a good big factor for this one.
23:42
It's a prime time showdown and UCF at TCU.
23:46
Everyone's betting the road dog UCFUCF is getting 67% of spread
23:51
bets. But TCU?
23:53
Actually this has been a crazy line move and I had to double
23:55
check, but it's real. TCU opened a 1 1/2 point home
23:58
favorite early in the week. It got all the way flipping dog
24:03
to fave in favor of UCFUCF went to -2 1/2.
24:07
Let's see, that was on the 12th, so yesterday.
24:12
But ever since yesterday, it flipped back to TCU.
24:16
So it went from TCU -1 1/2 to UCF -2 1/2, now back to TCU -1
24:22
1/2. And I see some shops now going
24:24
to TCU -2 So whether it's dog to fave back toward TCU or just the
24:29
line moving toward TCU, that's important because they're only
24:32
getting 33% of spread bets. Yet you've seen buyback in
24:35
movement back in their favor. Now the 33% bets is big because
24:39
that would make UCF a trendy dog in a heavily bet primetime game.
24:43
And I also want to go contrarian and heavily bet game. 7:30 PM.
24:47
So I love the fact that TCU is getting the sharp buyback.
24:51
So I money line TCU, I got them at -120 they're also a very
24:55
short favorite in a very high total game total.
24:57
This one is 62 1/2. So high total on a favorite is
25:01
good. More expected points scored
25:03
makes it easier for the favorite to cover the number.
25:05
But then also the rhythm projections.
25:08
Rhythm is predicting TCU minus 7.3.
25:12
My Josh model is TCU minus 3.8. So both models from the AI
25:18
backed rhythm predictions are telling me to take TCU and
25:23
they're super contrarian and the lines going back in their favor.
25:26
So you add it all up here, guys, I'm a I'm a horn frog baby.
25:29
I'm I'm a horny frog. Horn frog.
25:32
Actually, you know, scratch that, I'm a horn frog.
25:35
Anyway, I'm going TCU here on the money line.
25:37
Fade the trendy dog back and forth line move, but contrarian
25:41
heavily back game. I'm on TCU on the money line at
25:44
-120 So TCU money line. Purdue plus plus 8 1/2, PIT plus
25:48
2 1/2 or two in South Carolina. Again, I got a + 7.
25:52
Now it's around six and a half six.
25:54
At least you get it before it goes to 5 1/2.
25:57
Now over to the NFLI. Got three NFL bets for you guys
26:01
and just remember we will do the live stream on Sunday, so I'm
26:04
sure there's going to be added bets.
26:06
I'm sure there's going to be some player props, so make sure
26:09
you tune into that. Twitter live stream 11:00 AM
26:11
Eastern Time on Sunday. But in terms of some plays for
26:15
this weekend, here's what I have in pocket.
26:17
I got 3 bets. First one, I'm going to take the
26:19
Patriots in the points. Patriots at home against
26:21
Seattle. Both teams are one and O.
26:24
This line is intriguing, though, to me because it opened at
26:28
Seattle -3 and it got but up to Seattle -3 1/2.
26:33
But now all those hooks are getting juiced up back toward
26:36
the Patriots. So it's all 3 1/2, you know,
26:39
plus 3 1/2 -, 115 - 120. Like it may be getting back down
26:43
to three. So part of my Patriots play is
26:46
just grabbing the hook and hopefully beating the closing
26:48
line, getting a + 3 1/2. When it's juiced back toward New
26:51
England, it may close at 3:00. So there's value just in terms
26:54
of getting the hook and seeing it fall.
26:56
The other thing like about New England is they're only getting
26:58
41% of spread bets. Publix on Seattle, the public
27:01
still does not believe in the Patriots.
27:03
Again, I took the under four and half win total.
27:05
That doesn't look good right now.
27:08
I guess the best angle here would be Patriots lose, but they
27:11
lose by three and I cover with the hook.
27:13
But anyway, public still thinks Patriots think maybe they do,
27:16
maybe they don't. I can tell you just being in New
27:19
England, people are somewhat optimistic now about New
27:21
England. But anyway, Patriots only
27:23
getting 41% of bets. It's pretty much stayed around a
27:26
line freezer, reverse line move juice wise.
27:29
Like the whole point is the fact that Seattle hasn't gone to -4
27:32
that's telling to me because they're getting again, nearly
27:34
2/3 of bets. And you know, you would expect
27:38
that line to continue to go in their favor.
27:39
But no, it looks like the point of resistance was plus 3 1/2 now
27:43
coming back to three. And then also Seattle's a West
27:46
Coast team coming east across country for a 1:00 start.
27:50
That's just always a fade spot for me.
27:52
It's always difficult. Your body clock is, you know,
27:55
kind of thrown off. You got to travel and then you
27:57
got to play a game early. Remember, 181 PM, you know, West
28:01
Coast people, that's 10:00 AM. So it's just an early start.
28:04
It's a fade for me. I always like to bet against
28:06
West Coast teams going east for 1:00.
28:08
And then here's the kicker. The rhythm prediction is
28:12
Patriots plus 1 1/2 and my Josh prediction is Patriots plus 1.1.
28:18
So both predictions here, the rhythm AI model and my AI model
28:21
that I created are both saying this is about a one point game.
28:25
So we're getting 3 1/2 and we're contrarian and we're fading.
28:27
A West Coast team coming east. I'm going to take a shot in New
28:30
England. Guys, I'm a Patriots fan this
28:31
weekend. I am born and raised.
28:33
The Pats fan hasn't been good since Tom Brady left, but I'm
28:36
taking the points this weekend. Plus 3 1/2.
28:39
Keep on cruising. Next one for you.
28:41
I'm going to bet against The Jets.
28:43
Give me the Tennessee Titans. I'm, I'm going to bang my head
28:46
against the wall for the second week in the row in a row against
28:49
in favor of the Titans. They let me down there up 17,
28:51
nothing last week. What a pathetic collapse.
28:54
But anyway, they're at home against The Jets.
28:56
The Jets open this game at -4 and everyone's playing The Jets.
29:00
Jets are getting 75% of bets, yet those minus fours are really
29:04
juiced up toward Tennessee. And some books are even down to
29:06
3 1/2. So even though three out of four
29:09
bets are on The Jets and never went to four and a half, it
29:11
stayed where it's at and it's even starting to creep down
29:13
toward Tennessee. So I jumped on the +4.
29:16
There's a couple books that still have a four out there.
29:19
Jets are also a fade spot. They're on a short week.
29:22
Having played on Monday Night Football.
29:24
I got a lot of system matches on The Jets.
29:27
If you look at a week to home dog getting 6 points or less,
29:30
those teams are 18 and eight against the spread, 69% with a
29:34
30% ROI since 2018. So that's been a good angle
29:39
there. That also matched the Patriots
29:40
Conference home dogs 54% against the spread as well as conference
29:45
dog 6 or less, 55% against the spread, both since 2019, both
29:49
matching with Tennessee. Then I get to my Josh Rhythm
29:53
predicted model. It has Tennessee plus 1.8, so
29:56
another actionable edge there to take the Titans.
30:00
So Titans, can you please cover this number?
30:02
You can lose, but can you just lose by three or less?
30:04
Don't kill me two weeks in a row, I'm on Titans.
30:06
Shop around, try to get the four.
30:08
Now, the game that I know everyone's excited to watch and
30:11
sweat the Giants and the Commanders.
30:13
Baby, that's right. Now, I must admit, the Giants
30:16
are sharp. Believe it or not, Giant,
30:19
everyone's been in Washington. Washington open -3 the lines
30:21
down to 1 1/2. If you want to tease up Giants,
30:23
1 1/2 to seven half divisional dog, dog, low total line mover.
30:27
I mean, the Giants are matching. There's nothing you can do about
30:30
it, even though I bet no one wants to sweat the Giants.
30:34
So I got to admit that. Did I play the Giants?
30:36
No, I'm going to wait this thing out.
30:38
I lean Giants for sure, but I'm going to take the over in this
30:41
game. This one really jumped out to me
30:42
because it is a really rare reverse line contrarian over.
30:47
What do I mean by that? What I mean is that the public's
30:50
on the under again, not doesn't happen often.
30:53
Public on the under public wants to typically sweat overs, root
30:56
for points, you know, action-packed games.
30:58
But anyway, public's on the under.
31:01
The under is getting 64% of bets, but the total rose.
31:07
Total rolls from 41 1/2 up to 43.
31:10
Some shops even 43 1/2. So why is the total going up at
31:13
Publix on the under? Well, it tells me we got smart
31:16
money on the over. The over is only getting 36% of
31:19
bets but 70% of money. This is the biggest low bets,
31:23
higher dollar bet split of any total on the board.
31:26
Only 36% bets but 70% money in the line rose.
31:30
So this would be a rare contrarian overplay.
31:33
It's a short spread. Maybe it's a competitive game.
31:35
Both defenses are not very good. You saw Washington score points
31:39
and give up a ton to the bucks. And then also my rhythm AI model
31:43
is predicting 45.1 points. So that that's what jumped out
31:48
to me. The fact that the total rose
31:49
when everyone's betting the under notable contrarian
31:52
overplay here. So I'm going to go Giants
31:54
Washington. You may find an over 42 1/2 out
31:58
there, if not over 43. So Pats plus 3 1/2, Tennessee +4
32:02
and Giants Washington over 42 1/2.
32:05
That's what I'm sweating as of now on a Friday.
32:07
But again, tune into the live stream at 11:00 Eastern Time on
32:10
Twitter on Sunday and probably have some additional bets for
32:13
you. Well, that about does it guys.
32:15
Long pod. We hit on it all and hopefully
32:18
we'll have a good weekend here. This is the part of the pod as
32:21
we wrap it up where I leave you with some thoughts.
32:23
And 1st off, I ask you a question, a favor.
32:26
Can you do me a favor by giving this podcast a five star review?
32:30
Very simple, very easy. It'll take you 5 seconds or
32:32
less. Click the five stars on Spotify
32:34
or iTunes. It would really make my day.
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I'd really appreciate it help us to grow the pod.
32:38
If you want to recommend it to a friend, that would be great.
32:41
Word of mouth is always a great way to, you know, get new people
32:44
in. But then also, if you click the
32:46
follow button, if there's an option to follow, click that.
32:48
That way you'll get alerted as soon as it drops.
32:50
Secondly, if you enjoy these breakdowns and you want to learn
32:53
more about data-driven, sharp contrarian betting, guess what?
32:56
I wrote a book, it's called the everything Guide to sports
32:59
betting. Pick one up, support the team,
33:00
make me happy. But more importantly, you're
33:03
going to be happy because you're going to get more insight and
33:05
information, something you can hold in your hands, come back to
33:08
right in the margins. Give it to a friend who's new,
33:11
new to betting or a colleague or family member or whoever.
33:14
But it's got everything I've learned in the industry, how
33:15
lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line movement,
33:18
how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or
33:20
online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
33:23
management plan. It's all included.
33:25
And the everything guide to sports betting.
33:27
So pick one up when I see at the sports book, bring the book with
33:30
you. I'll sign it.
33:31
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale next.
33:34
Have you signed up for your 7 day free trial of Juice Reel and
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Rhythm? Hope you haven't done it yet.
33:39
You got to do it now because it is another big football weekend
33:42
ahead. All those rhythm edges that I
33:44
gave you, you can get for yourself on every game by
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signing up for Rhythm. Game predictions, player props,
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create your own models. I love rhythm, it's great.
33:53
Help us get our Shakur bet last night.
33:55
And a bad beat, of course on Cook, but then also juice reel.
33:59
Juice Reel is great if you just want to tail the robo Jackson
34:01
best bet picks each day that come out at noon.
34:03
Also the arbitrage bets, the sharp mush opportunities you got
34:07
to make sure you sync up your sports books to the app that
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way. That way you get a running
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performance and report card based on your strengths and
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weaknesses with both rhythm and juice reel.
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You can sign up by clicking the custom link that's located in
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the bio description of the podcast.
34:21
Scroll down after where it says Hey, Josh breaks down, you know,
34:25
five games on Friday, yadda yadda yadda.
34:26
UFC biting tip. OK, let's go down.
34:29
You'll have the links to Juice Real and Rhythm.
34:30
Click those. Get your seven day trial
34:33
started. But that about doesn't
34:34
everybody, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City,
34:38
Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
34:40
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut, at the Encore in
34:42
Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
34:45
In my neck of the woods in Massachusetts or out in the
34:47
desert where the true grinders get down.
34:49
Where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the lowest
34:52
shoes possible is found. The South Point or Sweat and
34:54
sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool
34:57
when he cashed a big ticket at Circo.
34:58
Wherever it may be. We had some annoying beats last
35:02
night, but show me a Shakira over when you go one and three.
35:05
You at least deserve to be happy about your win there.
35:08
But let's see if we can bounce back.
35:09
Have a good night here for for tonight guys.
35:12
And guess what, as always, I'll leave you with this.
35:14
Stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the public, place
35:17
yourself on the side of the house.
35:18
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
35:20
Will smart money when every time, of course not.
35:23
But here's the thing, we are always playing the long game.
35:25
Texas State was sharp didn't come through.
35:28
Miami was sharp didn't come through.
35:29
That's going to happen sometimes.
35:31
But if you make that bet 1000 times over the next, I don't
35:34
know thousand years, I think you're going to come out on top
35:38
long term. So always remember that when a
35:40
when a sharp bet loses, don't get down, don't question smart
35:43
money. Sharps just didn't get it right.
35:45
But there here's the thing they're going to get it right a
35:47
majority of the time, 55 to 60%. So if we can stay true to the
35:50
model against the public with the house, with the pros flat
35:53
bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
35:55
If we can do that, we're going to have a successful sports
35:58
betting career. So have a great Friday,
36:00
everybody have an even better weekend.
36:02
We got college football, NFL, we got baseball, we got UFC
36:06
pointing. Let's go Grasso, and I'll see
36:09
you guys on Sunday for a live stream on Twitter at 11:00 AM
36:12
Eastern Time. We'll be back at it on Monday
36:14
for episode 120 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
36:17
podcast powered by Rhythm. Have a great day everybody, and
36:21
an even better weekend.