Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Geoffrey Miller: Geopolitical Analyst on the 501 deportation meeting between Christopher Luxon and Anthony Albanese

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Geoffrey Miller: Geopolitical Analyst on the 501 deportation meeting between Christopher Luxon and Anthony Albanese · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Ready. Do you reckon Luxing can make it a third.
• 0:04
  Speaker 2: I don't think so. I don't think he's going to
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: make much headway with Anthony Albanezi on this The government
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: over there has been under a lot of pressure from
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: the opposition to take a more hardline stance, and they
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: actually changed their immigration minister a few weeks ago. So
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: they've now got someone who's from the right of the party,
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: Tony Burke, who's the minister over there. And I think
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: he's going to deport New Zealanders if and when he
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: wants to. And so I don't think Christopher Luxin is
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: really going to make much progress there. And he hinted
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: it that last night when he spoke to the Lower
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Institute in Sydney and the Q and A. He basically
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: said that they were going to agree to disagree on
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: this issue, but he would continue to voice New Zealand's displeasure.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: And I think that's perhaps all he really can do,
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: and he can simply hope that while Australia might engage
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: in a lot of tough talk on this issue, they might
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: show a bit of pragmatism towards New Zealand. Given that
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: Christopher Luxein is really seeking to align himself with Australia
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: quite strongly on wider foreign policy issues.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they've also got an election coming up, right, They're
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: hardly they're hardly going to bend over to us right
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: before they've got an election. As you say, just change
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: the immigration minister. That speech you mentioned at the Low Institute,
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: he said, this is Luxeen, this big first foreign affairs
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: outing that we are deliberately deepening our relationship with Five
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Eyes partners. Is that a bad thing?
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: Well, look, it was a very hawkish speech that he
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: gave last night and the Q and A it was
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: also very revealing. He said that he wanted New Zealand
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: to be a force multiplier for Australia, and he called
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: the independent foreign policy approach that uzen And has taken
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: for the last four decades almost he called that a nonsense.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: So it was very very strong. He said he was
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: very very aligned with Anthony Albanesi. And yes, I mean
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: it was very clear what the direction of travel is
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: going to be under Christopher Luxe. And I think it
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: will be music to Camper his ears, music to Anthony
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: Albanese's ears, but it could put New Zealand on a
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: collision course with China.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: He said New Zealand does sometimes perceive themselves as buffered
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: by splendid isolation, but there is no opting out from
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: today's strategic realities. The world is getting more difficult and
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: more complex, particularly so for those smaller states navigating increasingly
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: stormy seas. New Zealand two must be a participant and
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: a contributor, not an interested bystander. Does he have a point?
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: Look, I think New Zealand should be more involved in
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: the world, but it's exactly how you do it is
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: the question. And Christopher Luxm's recipe seems to be to
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: be taking a much more hawkoush stance, to be aligning
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: itself and to be aligning New Zealand very much with
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: Five Lives partners like Australia, like the United States. And
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: that's a line with heard very consistently from Winston Peters,
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: the Foreign Minister, over the last nine months. But it
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: will represent quite a sea change for New Zealand's foreign
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: policy to be moving away from the independent foreign policy
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: towards their becoming a de facto alliance member again in
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: the Western Alliance. He said that New Zealand's continuing to
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: explore orcers. It sounds like decisions being put on hold
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: pending the outcome of the US elections in November. But
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: it's very much still in the mix where the New
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: Zealand joins UCAS Pillar two. We've been told that for
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: US for quite some time, but I think it is coming,
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: some of these big decisions, and it really will be
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: quite a change to New Zealand's foreign policy positioning.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Well, and the way he's talking, I mean, you feel
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: like you're being bartered up for it, almost, don't you. Jeffrey.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much for your time and your analysis
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: this morning. Jeffrey Miller, International geopolitical analyst.
• 3:33
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• 3:36
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• 3:38
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• 3:40
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