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175: The Weather Pattern That Could Shape the Next Year for Agriculture with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

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  It is a very exciting time around here with the LRC and our
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  conversations with Gary Lezak. Today on the podcast episode
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  interview with Gary, we are touching on the LRC and the fact
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  that it is setting up right now. We recorded this on October 8th.
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  So we just got done with the first few days of potentially
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  the cycle setting up and establishing.
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  Gary is touching on what that means and what we can anticipate
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  over the next month and what that means for our next year as
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  cattle producers. We touch on another aspect of
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  how you guys yourselves at home can get involved with the
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  setting up of the LRC cycle and in your regions and in your
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  areas, how you can start predicting the weather for the
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  year that we have to come and all of the seasons ahead.
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  Without further ado, let's go ahead and hop into this episode
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  with Gary. But if you guys could take a
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  second to like subscribe, rate and review this podcast, we
• 0:57
  would really appreciate it here at the team.
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  And without further ado, let's hear from Gary.
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  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
• 1:08
  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
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  updates shaping agriculture today.
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  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
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  agriculture, here to keep you informed and connected.
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  Now let's dive into today's episode.
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  Gary, welcome back to the podcast.
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  How is life in Colorado? I see you're wearing a Chiefs
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  polo today, which is very bold of you.
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  I appreciate it as a Chiefs fan. But as we were discussing off
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  camera, it's a I feel it's a little difficult to be a Chiefs
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  fan right now. We're having a rough start.
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  We're having a rough start. It's horrible.
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  We'll start with the Chiefs. If you're a Chiefs fan out
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  there, then it's it's horrible right now.
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  We we're we're like losing some of these games, a little closer
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  games and and there's frustrating ways we lose these
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  games and they're two and three and now they need to start
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  winning. But it's frustrating.
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  But most of the world out there hates the Chiefs, including a
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  few people listening to this or watching this right now.
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  I hated the New England Patriots.
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  And so we understand if you really look deeply, Tom Brady
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  and the New England Patriots are very similar to Patrick Mahomes
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  and the Kansas City Chiefs. It proves that the Chiefs are in
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  the middle of a dynasty. So let's take a deep breath and
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  give you chills on that one because if you're a Chiefs fan,
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  it's amazing. It really, truly is now a
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  complete dynasty and everyone is rooting for us to lose.
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  So when we lose, they have a good week and which it means
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  much of America is in a better mood.
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  I just didn't think about that. America is in a better mood when
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  the Chiefs lose. Chiefs Kingdom is in a bad mood
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  so. Have a philosophy there.
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  I, I understand where you're coming from.
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  I don't like it, but you know, I like the mindset shift of, you
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  know what? We have created such a dynasty
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  that that's why, that's why what you know, dynasties go through
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  ebb and flows. Right.
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  And so I mean, as as as hard as it might be because the Chiefs
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  just lost to the Jaguars on a weird ending to the game where
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  Trevor Lawrence falls once, not once, but twice.
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  And the only reason he falls is because he himself was
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  panicking. Then he gets back up after the
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  panic and the Chiefs are still nowhere to be found and he goes
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  in and gets a touchdown. So that doesn't make much sense
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  at all. I think the Chiefs naturally can
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  be a little complacent and think they need to hold off their
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  energy to the playoffs. But you've got to get to the
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  playoffs. Let's envision 12 weeks from
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  now, the Chiefs are 11 and six. They make the playoffs and now
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  you've got a team that's gone through the the rough season,
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  but now they're 11 and 6. They're on a roll probably and
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  everyone's in trouble because Petra Holmes and the Chiefs may
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  be able to do it if they get to a fourth straight Super Bowl.
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  When we're feeling the way we are now.
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  Incredible, I. Love the optimistic mindset that
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  you have and I'm just going to ride on your coattails with that
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  and we're just going to leave it at that.
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  That would be my post on Facebook, because yesterday's
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  was the other exact opposite way.
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  I talked about Chris Jones and how he just stood there and
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  watched the play. And it's natural to just
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  thinking, oh, let me save myself for the playoffs.
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  Well, you've got to get to the playoffs, then you can save
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  yourself the playoffs. But anyway, precisely.
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  Yeah, exciting. The weather has been great.
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  We made the right call in Jacksonville.
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  Brett Veach is the general manager for the Chiefs, and he
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  contacts me and asks me for the forecast.
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  And so I gave them the accurate forecast, say it would rain in
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  the morning and probably not during the evening when everyone
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  else said it was going to rain. It didn't rain.
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  But he's been in touch with me. So it's always good to also be
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  the one, the person, the meteorologist for the Kansas
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  City Chiefs, even though people don't know that they need me on
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  the sidelines. They do.
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  They need you on the sideline. You can pay me just a little
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  bit, you know, 100 grand for the Chiefs, just 100,000 a year.
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  I'll stand on the sidelines and, you know, Jean Saratore and
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  these other referee sit in the booth with, they probably make
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  more than that to, to, to, to, to make the wrong call all the
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  time. So it's crazy.
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  I think that that would be a great gig for you, Gary.
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  They fly you to all the games, cart you around with them, you
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  stand on the sidelines and you are just the and.
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  They have this meteorologist that can even like on on
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  national TV they go wow that chiefs have their own
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  meteorologist. Yeah, we're fancy like that.
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  What can you say? And this meteorologist is is a
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  celebrity back in Kansas City as well.
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  So I mean, just bringing it all, bringing it all around here.
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  I love it. I, I, we're, we're in what's
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  called LESAC syndrome. So now my mind's going, maybe I
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  should do that. Maybe you should.
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  Maybe you should do some guest appearances.
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  Yeah, as a meteorologist. You or they fly me in when
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  there's a all. The sidelines.
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  Yeah. Half of them.
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  Or I could be the sideline weather reporter.
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  All right, let's go to Gary Lezak for CBS.
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  Gary, our meteorologist. What's it look like down there?
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  Well, first of all, you know, if you look at all the analytics
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  for the game, wind is a factor and it favors the Kansas City
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  Chiefs. When it's windy, they will be
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  have a 22% better chance of winning the game.
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  However, today the winds are going to be less than 10 mph,
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  which evens out the score. I'm just say we can do something
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  like. I'm going to need you, Gary to
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  after we're done here, work your Gary magic, your Lee Zach magic
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  and at least like one guest appearance on the sidelines.
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  You can do it. I love it.
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  I want to see it. I want to be actually.
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  You need to do it for a home game specifically so that I can
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  come and watch. And I can come.
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  And watch your weather performance.
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  I love it. Amazing.
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  Yeah, the weather performance they go, hey, Gary, you've got
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  30 seconds, 30 seconds we can do.
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  It well, Speaking of the weather, what it's an exciting
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  time right now it is we are recording this on October 8th,
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  which is a very exciting day. I feel like a like I don't know
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  a person in a movie who holds like the secret like code to
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  something really important and no one else knows.
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  And I'm like so tell. Us well, the the secret, the
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  secret code. Yeah, Lauren, the secret code is
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  very complex, but you are in on aspects of that code.
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  I mean it's it's amazing. So basically the weather pattern
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  is cycling regularly and it doesn't just instantly start
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  October 5th, 6th or 7th like that.
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  It does begin about then. It's been evolving since the jet
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  stream started strengthening in August.
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  We took you through it week by week and now the jet stream is
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  strengthening and the new LRC is setting up.
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  I put on Facebook and and X and other social media the roulette
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  wheel of weather. And if you spin it around where
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  and the ball is now spinning and it hasn't dropped yet, The ball
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  is going to drop here sometime in November.
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  It's still going to continue to spin.
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  The first cycles in motion. We're learning more and then
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  it's going to drop. Is it going to drop for Kansas
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  in drought? Is it going to drop into the
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  snowy and wet category, the cold and dry category?
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  Is it going to be warm and dry? Where is that ball going to
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  drop? And so it is like a roulette
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  wheel because even I do not know for sure there are signs like we
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  know or Nina which is the cooling of the Pacific Ocean.
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  The tropical Pacific waters is in progress right now trying to
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  form into a La Nina by December to January.
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  Everything that I see, it fades away, away from La Nina.
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  So it's not a growing cooling over the tropical Pacific.
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  So some people exaggerate and say, Oh my gosh, that means
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  drought. OK, If it was a full-fledged La
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  Nina, it increases the probability of drought over the
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  agriculture belt from the wheat and the ranching regions to the
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  corn, soybeans off to the east. It it's like it, it actually is
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  drought indicator if it's aligning you.
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  However, since it's not a that, that's the one indicator that
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  says it's going to go to neutral.
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  So that's a factor now, but maybe not a factor for 2026.
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  So that's something to consider. The Arctic Oscillation and the
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  North Atlantic Oscillation are indexes that are showing signs
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  of dipping negative in the next 10 days.
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  If it dips negative deeply, that leads to blocking in the river
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  of air above us and leads to cold outbreaks.
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  So there's some hint that could happen in 10 days to two weeks.
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  If that does show up next week when we discuss this, we will
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  look into that index and see could a really cold air mass be
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  on a way blasting S here soon so that that we haven't had a first
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  freeze. In fact, it's really where I
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  live in Colorado, there hasn't been a day in the 30s yet, a low
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  temperature in the 30s yet, so on.
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  It's been a a very mild start to fall, and so will that continue?
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  Now remember, the LRC likely has a day one of October 5th, 6th,
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  or 7th. Again, if you're new to it,
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  there's maybe an astronomical reason for that.
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  The sunset at the North Pole on the first day of fall and
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  September the 22nd, about two weeks later, the twilight
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  finally goes away and it becomes dark at the North Pole.
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  And then every day that goes by, that darkness spreads farther S
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  These waves of energy are now spreading S across the Northern
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  Hemisphere. They're probably to Kansas and
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  Missouri right now, and they're going to get down to the Gulf
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  Coast by tomorrow, by by the time you hear this podcast, and
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  then across the tropics over the next 5 days.
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  And the new LRC will be born. And so then it continues to
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  evolve a little bit, but all that's in progress.
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  And the LRC itself is where that roulette wheel.
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  There's other things like La Nina, the Arctic constellation,
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  the North Atlantic constellation, the Pacific,
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  North American isolation, PNA and the PDO and MGO and these
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  other things. All those things are things that
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  influence, But the biggest piece of the puzzle, I had a paper
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  towel in my hand. I looked like an old man.
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  The biggest piece of the puzzle is the LRC, and that's the
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  ball's going to drop somewhere in that roulette wheel.
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  And I hope it does not drop in the drought category because
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  those are. I don't like to talk about
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  drought. Yeah.
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  For sure. So the weather that happens in
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  our different regions over the next 20-30 days, is that an
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  indicator of what we are going to be seeing for the rest of the
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  year? Very good question for all of
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  you out there. What Lauren just said is hits it
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  on the nose. So in the next 30-40 fifty days,
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  last year was a 41 day cycle. This year's likely not going to
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  be a 41 day cycle. It's going to be higher because
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  it's very rarely lower than that.
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  So first of all, we won't know what that cycle is.
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  However, in the next 40-50 days, start jotting down when you have
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  significant weather. If it doesn't rain for the next
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  40 days in your location, that is not good news.
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  If it if it does rain, how much and when and what type?
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  Is there a severe weather outbreak?
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  Let's say there's a severe weather outbreak and one is
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  trying to show up in the next 10 days, and that extends from
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  North Dakota down into the Plains and into to Kansas and
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  Nebraska. And we have severe weather.
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  When and if that happens, mark down that date and then you'll
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  notice about you'll notice about 40-50 days later, 60 days later
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  that severe weather will return. And when, when there's another
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  event, then you can start to see what the cycle length might be.
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  But write down whether you have severe weather, whether it
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  rains, snows, when it's really windy, if it's a really windy
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  day, even that can be predicted. If there were last year, 41 days
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  later, give or take a day, you'd probably have another really
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  windy day. So the weather pattern is
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  cycling regularly. And So what happens in the next
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  month? As you said, 30-40 days, 50
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  days, jot it down and then you can have your own little
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  analysis and forecasting and follow the LRC and then you'll
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  say, hey, listen and it just happened on October 15th and
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  then again on November 30th. Maybe it's a 45 day cycle.
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  We'll have to confirm with Gary. That means it's going to come
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  back on January 15th and on February 28th.
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  But you can predict when these things are going to happen on
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  your own. I'll guide you through it.
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  How fascinating. This is the time for everyone in
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  agriculture to be praying for some rain for the next few weeks
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  because we do not want 40 days without any rain here in Kansas.
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  I I know what is going to be in my prayers for the next few
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  days. And Lauren, yes.
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  We want it. And Lauren, just just so you
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  know, last year, just look at last October, it was dry until
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  about October 24th or so. After October 20th, the 1st 15
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  days of Panama dry and we were worried, Oh my gosh, is it ever
• 15:13
  going to rain? And it then it started raining
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  and in, in November was actually fairly wet.
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  And then the way the weather pattern set up, I was able to
• 15:20
  make the call and an accurate prediction predicting that the
• 15:24
  drought would would decrease and go away and the drought all
• 15:28
  season long into next year through the growing season, it
• 15:32
  threatened to be drought, but it never did.
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  It got smaller and smaller and smaller.
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  And we're starting the season with literally no real drought
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  conditions over most of Nebraska, most of Kansas, most
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  of Iowa. And then there is some drought
• 15:46
  that has been growing over Missouri.
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  So Missouri, Indiana, Illinois, Ohio have been drier in the last
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  few weeks. So that area is growing right
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  now. We'll continue because droughts
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  are either growing or shrinking. We'll talk about that so many
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  times coming up. But that one is the drought is
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  is growing in that region right now.
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  So in the next month, will that trend start going the other way?
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  That's what we'll be looking for.
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  Such a fun time. Like we can sit here in our own
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  homes, in our own regions and just be receptive to what the
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  weather is doing. And then we can sit here and be
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  like, OK, we had a really big thunderstorm come through today.
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  We're going to jot that down. And hey, it hasn't rained for 12
• 16:30
  days. We're going to jot that down.
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  Or it like we had a really cold spell for a week or something
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  like that. Jot that down.
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  It works with last year. They I'm in an analysis right
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  now with AI trying to, to, to prove out the the theory of
• 16:50
  quanti quantitatively, mathematically.
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  And I'm very close to that calculation.
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  And you can see how tornadoes happened right on cycle last
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  year, every 404142 days, Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom
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  tornadoes. And so it's and the rest of the
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  world doesn't see this. It's hard to see.
• 17:08
  It's very chaotic, but it's not chaos.
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  It is order and chaos. Wow, fascinating, fascinating.
• 17:16
  Any other highs, lows, Buffaloes within the weather this week,
• 17:21
  Gary, that we need to be touching on?
• 17:23
  Did you say the Buffalo Bills? The Buffalo Bills lost this week
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  also, so that's good news. That is good news.
• 17:30
  It is very good news. I've I explained the high low
• 17:32
  Buffalo to you, didn't I? No.
• 17:35
  You've never heard that? I've heard of it, but you've
• 17:37
  explained it. It's like high, low, and Buffalo
• 17:40
  is like neutral. Like it's because it like
• 17:43
  rhymes, right? High, low Buffalo.
• 17:45
  High, low Buffalo. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 17:49
  I'll stick with my roulette wheel of water.
• 17:51
  I love it. I love it.
• 17:53
  Amazing, amazing. Well, anything else, Gary?
• 17:56
  That is it for today and we'll learn a lot more in the next
• 17:59
  week. So next week we'll start looking
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  what just happened the last week, the last 10 days, the 1st
• 18:04
  10 days of the LRC. We'll look back and see what it
• 18:07
  did, and I'll tell you what my analysis is.
• 18:10
  Very exciting times around here. Well, Gary, thank you for your
• 18:13
  time today. To all of our listeners, thank
• 18:15
  you for tuning in to another episode of the Cattle USA Daily
• 18:18
  Podcast. If you liked anything that we
• 18:19
  were discussing today with Gary, make sure you check out the show
• 18:22
  notes down below. I have all of Gary's links from
• 18:25
  his social media to the website to the exclusive dashboard link
• 18:29
  to his sub stock and everything else in between.
• 18:31
  So make sure you go check those out and we will see you all next
• 18:34
  time on another episode. Have a good one y'all.