Latest / Talking Michigan Transportation / New mobility comes at a cost
Transcript
- 0:07Jeff Cranson: Hello, welcome to the Talking Michigan Transportation Podcast.
- 0:11Jeff Cranson: Today I'm talking with a frequent guest, Joann Muller of Axios Mobility.
- 0:19Jeff Cranson: She actually writes their future of mobility newsletter and does uh more reporting on everything across the spectrum of automotive developments than anyone else in the business.
- 0:32Jeff Cranson: Uh lots of things to cover today.
- 0:34Jeff Cranson: Um, interested in some efforts by some automakers to make electric vehicles more affordable, uh, what they're trying to do, even as federal policies have created a bit of a lull in the market.
- 0:46Jeff Cranson: Um, how public policy at the federal level will affect the development of autonomous vehicles, which are typically electric vehicles, and what that means to that future, whether it's slowing down and again is just a lull, or whether or not we're going to see that uh roaring soon enough.
- 1:04Jeff Cranson: And then some safety concerns uh related to mobility overall, but especially with uh the advent of more robotaxis on the roads and those kinds of things.
- 1:14Jeff Cranson: So, Joann, as always, has done reporting on all those topics and had a lot of great things to say, and I hope you enjoy the conversation.
- 1:21Jeff Cranson: So, again, I'm with Joann Muller of Axios Mobility.
- 1:25Jeff Cranson: She writes the Future of Mobility newsletter, which is a must-read for uh anybody that's interested in all things going on in the automotive sector today, changes uh fast and furious, and uh, I guess, from my thinking, the hardest working person in automotive journalism.
- 1:41Jeff Cranson: So, thanks for taking time to do this, Joann.
- 1:44Joann Muller: Good to be here, Jeff.
- 1:44Joann Muller: Thanks for having me.
- 1:46Jeff Cranson: So, first, I wanted to talk about a story you had a couple of weeks ago about uh automakers and their efforts to make electric vehicles more affordable.
- 1:54Jeff Cranson: There's a lot of headwinds uh at the federal level with the administration policies.
- 1:58Jeff Cranson: Uh, yet some big folks like Ford are still committed to this and they're trying to find ways to get them uh into the homes of middle class people like Ford did in its uh original and in its original incarnation uh more than 100 years ago.
- 2:13Jeff Cranson: So talk about some of those things and how some of the other automakers are doing those things too.
- 2:18Joann Muller: Yeah, exactly.
- 2:19Joann Muller: So um, you know, the challenge is these are expensive technologies.
- 2:24Joann Muller: And the only way that you can make a good solid business out of them is if you have uh you make them at scale.
- 2:31Joann Muller: You know, the the automakers are are masters at mass production.
- 2:35Joann Muller: But if you're selling EVs in small volumes, they just end up being money losers.
- 2:41Joann Muller: So the challenge is to get the costs down so that you can make them affordably uh at mass levels.
- 2:49Joann Muller: And so, you know, everyone is doing this.
- 2:52Joann Muller: Uh certainly uh GM has been working for some years and they've got a lot of different models coming off the same uh basic platform.
- 3:01Joann Muller: Ford is now uh starting over basically on its EV uh efforts, and they uh have designed a low-cost platform uh that will uh mostly produce uh be used for vehicles at the entry level of the market, the lower end.
- 3:20Joann Muller: Um so what we're talking about here, the first vehicle is going to be a small or a medium-sized pickup truck.
- 3:28Joann Muller: Um, and I think that um, you know, then there will be other versions that come off of that.
- 3:34Joann Muller: And the idea is to get the cost of that platform way down.
- 3:38Joann Muller: Um, and then they can make them share the the different, they call them top hats, uh different top hats on the same platform, and you can make a lot of money that way in theory.
- 3:49Jeff Cranson: What's the mid-size pickup they'd be talking about comparable to now, to um mid-size pickups that that Ford GM Stalinus produced?
- 3:58Joann Muller: It probably gonna be a little bit bigger, I think, than the Ford Maverick, which is a hybrid on the market today, maybe ranger size, um, but probably not much bigger than that.
- 4:10Joann Muller: They I think they have eventually have plans for another uh uh larger pickup truck that's electric.
- 4:17Joann Muller: And forget that plan has gone on and off a couple times.
- 4:20Jeff Cranson: Yeah, yeah, but they're talking like $30,000 range, right?
- 4:24Joann Muller: So yes, that is the goal to get you know the entry, you know, the starting price.
- 4:28Joann Muller: Who who buys the car at the base trim?
- 4:31Joann Muller: You know, they always give quote these great low prices, but one once you get you know the the amenities that you want, uh you're paying at least five thousand dollars more.
- 4:42Jeff Cranson: Yeah, can you even find a car with just the base trim on a lot?
- 4:45Jeff Cranson: Do you think?
- 4:46Joann Muller: Uh, you know, I I have driven a couple of them that are base level for around 25,000 sedans, these are.
- 4:54Joann Muller: Uh, and they're not coming from the domestic manufacturers.
- 4:57Joann Muller: I'll say that.
- 4:58Joann Muller: They gave up on that market a long time ago.
- 5:00Jeff Cranson: That makes perfect sense.
- 5:02Jeff Cranson: Um, I think the Michigan, strong Michigan connection there, obviously, besides Ford, um, is that the batteries for this would be produced at the new plant, the blue oval plant they're building near Marshall.
- 5:12Jeff Cranson: Is that right?
- 5:14Joann Muller: That's correct.
- 5:14Joann Muller: Yeah, those batteries, they're already producing batteries there.
- 5:18Joann Muller: Those batteries will uh go into uh this vehicle.
- 5:23Joann Muller: Um, and they are uh a low-cost chemistry.
- 5:29Joann Muller: It's called lithium iron phosphate LFP, and uh it is uh a technology that's been perfected in China.
- 5:37Joann Muller: I think it was in uh like everything, it was invented in the United States, uh manufactured production, production was was perfected in in China, and they have all the um all the the uh components and and uh materials that go into it.
- 5:55Joann Muller: So Ford said, we need that technology, we're gonna license it from China to put in our own 100% owned Ford plant.
- 6:05Joann Muller: So you may recall this was rather controversial.
- 6:08Joann Muller: Uh, a lot of people in Washington said, we don't want Chinese uh battery makers here.
- 6:14Joann Muller: And Ford had to argue for a very long time and said, This is a Ford plant.
- 6:19Joann Muller: Ford employees were licensing technology from a Chinese company so that we can learn how to do it and do it better and take it from there.
- 6:28Joann Muller: So this is Ford's gamble.
- 6:30Joann Muller: You know, it's uh it's quite interesting.
- 6:32Joann Muller: It was controversial, but they won basically, and now they're moving ahead with it.
- 6:37Joann Muller: The plant is a little smaller than originally planned.
- 6:40Joann Muller: Uh, you may recall the state had provided some incentives based on a number of jobs to be created there.
- 6:46Joann Muller: Um, because demand for EVs is lower than expected, they've sort of scaled back the plant a little bit for now.
- 6:53Jeff Cranson: But they they didn't bail out completely and they did some pretty hardcore lobbying and negotiations in DC to get it this far.
- 6:59Jeff Cranson: And I think uh I mean it's it's it's impressive what they did to keep things somewhat on track.
- 7:05Jeff Cranson: Do you think that that I mean, Crystal Ball, again, I always ask you this, but um, is there a bet that people will prefer a well-equipped battery-powered car over a gas metal if the price is right?
- 7:16Jeff Cranson: Is is that a good bet, do you think?
- 7:18Joann Muller: Uh, I think it could be, yes.
- 7:20Joann Muller: Anyone who's driven an electric car will realize uh how much more pleasant it is.
- 7:27Joann Muller: Uh, it's faster, it's comfortable, it's well grounded.
- 7:31Joann Muller: Uh you know, pardon me?
- 7:33Joann Muller: It's quiet.
- 7:34Joann Muller: It's quiet for sure.
- 7:36Joann Muller: Uh and it's just fun to drive.
- 7:39Joann Muller: There are some hiccups that still need to be worked out.
- 7:42Joann Muller: Charging is always, you know, the number one thing, but even that has gotten a lot better.
- 7:47Joann Muller: So, all things being equal, if you had two $30,000 cars, one that you never had to go to the gas station for, and one that you did, you know, Ford's bet is that you'll go for the electric.
- 7:59Joann Muller: And um I personally think it's a good bet, but that's a gigantic asterisk there is that they have to deliver a car that is $30,000 or less, uh, that's electric.
- 8:13Joann Muller: And, you know, they have yet to prove they can do that.
- 8:16Jeff Cranson: So that still could be a challenge, yeah.
- 8:18Jeff Cranson: Yeah.
- 8:18Jeff Cranson: But I think you hit on another point that has been the stumbling block for for many people, obviously, is range anxiety.
- 8:25Jeff Cranson: And even with Nebby rolling out and having a lot of complications in Michigan and other states, um, they're still committed to the money that was committed during the Biden administration.
- 8:36Jeff Cranson: And I I think a lot of us had gotten the impression that this charger thing was just a huge challenge that was going to take a while to be overcome.
- 8:44Jeff Cranson: But it sounds like there's actually been a lot of progress with uh charger infrastructure.
- 8:49Joann Muller: There t really has.
- 8:50Joann Muller: And I I think it's important for people to understand that this NEBI program you speak about that was uh under the Biden administration is a very small, small piece of the overall electric charging architecture that's being installed everywhere, the infrastructure rather.
- 9:10Joann Muller: And um a lot most of the chargers are being built with private capital.
- 9:15Joann Muller: Companies like Evigo uh and uh ChargePoint, Electrify America, these and a lot of other ones.
- 9:22Joann Muller: It's it's a very fragmented business.
- 9:25Joann Muller: Um, but uh the Nevi, the Nevi chargers you talk about are highway chargers all across America.
- 9:33Joann Muller: That's an important security blanket for people to know that if they go on a long trip, there will be chargers.
- 9:40Joann Muller: So that's why the Biden administration created that plan.
- 9:43Joann Muller: But they know that most people are actually charging either at home or in their neighborhood, uh, you know, at the Walmart or the Meyer parking lot.
- 9:53Jeff Cranson: And you've had some reporting on that too, and how uh those those charging hubs have have grown and have like like several ports now, right?
- 10:01Joann Muller: Yeah, yeah.
- 10:02Joann Muller: The size of the charging stations is getting bigger, you know.
- 10:06Joann Muller: They used to be maybe two or four, now they're eight, ten, twelve.
- 10:11Joann Muller: Tesla has a station out in California that's 164 plugs.
- 10:16Joann Muller: It's huge.
- 10:17Jeff Cranson: That's incredible.
- 10:18Joann Muller: Yeah, it's powered by the sun, too.
- 10:20Joann Muller: It's the solar powered, uh, which is yeah, I mean, that's very California, right?
- 10:25Jeff Cranson: Right, right, right.
- 10:26Jeff Cranson: Yeah, you certainly couldn't do that here year-round.
- 10:29Joann Muller: No, but but it it just shows that there are things you can do, you know, that if you think creatively, uh you can you can solve these problems.
- 10:39Jeff Cranson: So while in the in the big picture, uh that charge infrastructure has gotten better, and we saw you know what Ford has committed to, uh, the other side of this coin is some other reporting you've done on how the pullback of EVs has especially been hard on the South.
- 10:54Joann Muller: Yeah, well, so when uh so during the Biden administration, uh a lot of incentives were provided for production of uh EV factories and battery factories and components for EVs.
- 11:08Joann Muller: A lot of money poured in, almost all of it went to the south, um, because you know, costs are a little lower, especially labor uh is a factor.
- 11:19Joann Muller: You know, those plants down there are are non-union.
- 11:23Joann Muller: Um, and so those were built in a lot of states that we would consider red states, um, where they might not necessarily favor EVs, but they certainly favor jobs.
- 11:36Joann Muller: Uh and so yeah, yeah.
- 11:39Joann Muller: And so now uh those states are the ones that are seeing a lot of interruptions or cancellations of factories.
- 11:48Joann Muller: And um, you know, that is if it hasn't happened yet, it will be happening uh in those states.
- 11:55Joann Muller: So, you know, it's it's uh it just shows how incentives, government policy can really cause big swings in investments.
- 12:05Joann Muller: Um, and frankly, a lot of wasted capital because we've seen that's why GM Ford, uh uh Stellantis, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Volkswagen, every one of them has had to make gigantic write-offs on their investments in EV manufacturing.
- 12:26Joann Muller: Because the demand wasn't there, and the incentives for EVs you know, taking those away also you know made demand softer than it already was.
- 12:36Joann Muller: And so you had all this money put into manufacturing things that nobody wants to buy right now.
- 12:42Jeff Cranson: But if you talk to the top brass and any of those companies, people who are thinking about the future and have to look 20, 30, 40 years ahead, they still think that's the future, right?
- 12:52Jeff Cranson: They they don't, this is a lull.
- 12:54Jeff Cranson: This isn't like uh you haven't killed off the concept.
- 12:57Joann Muller: I I think that's true.
- 12:58Joann Muller: That's certainly what you know the car makers are telling me that long term it's still going to be an electrified industry.
- 13:06Joann Muller: But you know, I I do wonder how all this will play out, though, because if you think about all the data centers to power AI, uh and the demands, that's like the hungriest beast you've ever seen.
- 13:21Joann Muller: And then you add in the electric vehicles and other things that are going electric, you know, like a lot of gas stoves have to go to electric in some states, right?
- 13:31Joann Muller: That kind of thing.
- 13:32Joann Muller: So our demand for electricity is growing.
- 13:36Joann Muller: So the question is, are we gonna how are we gonna produce all that electricity?
- 13:40Joann Muller: But the other that we can't forget that this is always something people um miss about electric vehicles, they actually can help with the electric shortage, right?
- 13:51Joann Muller: So our cars are parked in parked 90%, 95% of the day.
- 13:57Joann Muller: Uh, if you think of them as a giant battery that is supplying energy to the grid rather than drawing energy off the grid, uh, we can use our cars to help manage peak demand.
- 14:12Joann Muller: Um, in the afternoon, let's say, when when uh demand for air conditioning and stoves and all that stuff peaks, uh the cars have surplus energy that can be used to power the grid.
- 14:27Joann Muller: Now, this at the moment is a very early concept.
- 14:32Joann Muller: Um, it is it is being tested widely by GM and Ford and others, mostly in California, but in some other states too, and Texas is one.
- 14:43Joann Muller: Um, but this this can happen.
- 14:45Joann Muller: And you know, I I do think in the future cars are going to be not just powering our homes during blackouts, but powering our neighborhood all the time.
- 14:55Jeff Cranson: You've got an electric storage facility sitting in your garage.
- 14:58Joann Muller: Exactly.
- 14:59Joann Muller: Yeah, yeah.
- 15:00Joann Muller: School buses are another great example, right?
- 15:02Joann Muller: School buses need big batteries, but they only drive around for an hour a day, and then they're sitting there.
- 15:09Joann Muller: They could power an entire school system.
- 15:11Jeff Cranson: Yeah, there's a lot they could do between the morning and the afternoon, right?
- 15:14Jeff Cranson: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- 15:15Jeff Cranson: Please stay tuned.
- 15:16Jeff Cranson: We'll be back with more talking Michigan transportation right after this.
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- 16:01Jeff Cranson: In DC last week, the American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials, uh, Transportation Policy Forum had a lot of discussion about the promise of autonomous vehicles and safety.
- 16:16Jeff Cranson: And uh, I remember writing congressional testimony for the MDOT director back in 2015, so you know, more than 10 years ago, talking about uh the promise of ABs and what it means in terms of lives lost on the roads and the fact that we accept, you know, 30 to 40,000 people dying in car crashes.
- 16:37Jeff Cranson: And we would never accept that if it was the airline industry.
- 16:40Jeff Cranson: Um, and and what it means to people with disabilities and and elderly drivers, you know, the the the independence that can come with that.
- 16:48Jeff Cranson: So it really it really struck me um last week that here we are 10 years later, and we're not quite as far along as I thought we would be.
- 16:56Jeff Cranson: Um, but you know, you've written about that too, and what what Waymo and others are doing with robo taxis and things.
- 17:02Jeff Cranson: And again, I always say whenever there's a crash or close to a crash, it gets all kinds of headlines like, oh, you know, automated vehicle involved in a crash.
- 17:11Jeff Cranson: It's like almost always it was human error, right?
- 17:14Jeff Cranson: It wasn't actually the the the robos, the robots' fault.
- 17:18Jeff Cranson: So talk about that and what your reporting is showing you.
- 17:22Joann Muller: Yeah, yeah.
- 17:23Joann Muller: Well, I do think we hold robots to a higher standard than humans.
- 17:27Joann Muller: Um uh, but um also this is such new technology.
- 17:33Joann Muller: We don't know what we don't know.
- 17:35Joann Muller: And an example of that just happened last weekend in um Austin, Texas, where sadly there was a mass shooting.
- 17:44Joann Muller: Um, and a Waymo robotaxi was on its way to pick up a a passenger in the vicinity and encountered a blocked road and did what it thought it should do, which was make a U-turn, turn around, not go into a dangerous spot.
- 18:02Joann Muller: They didn't know what was going on there, they just saw the road was blocked, so it turned around.
- 18:07Joann Muller: Well, as it was turning around, an ambulance came up trying to get through to get to the scene, and the robotaxis trained in that situation to stop and yield.
- 18:19Joann Muller: Well, it had two competing instructions there make a U-turn or yield.
- 18:25Joann Muller: And so what it did was it just stopped crosswise in the middle of the street, and it became the ambulance.
- 18:33Joann Muller: It blocked the ambulance and it it blocked the whole street, and it turned out a police officer had to come and in communication with Waymo had to get in, disengage the robot, and drive the car away.
- 18:48Joann Muller: This is not something that the algorithms probably anticipated, uh, you know, and uh uh what to do um when there's a mass shooting.
- 19:01Joann Muller: Uh it, you know, there was a power outage, a mass power outage in San Francisco, and a bunch of robotaxis just stopped because they didn't know what to do.
- 19:11Joann Muller: So we don't know what we don't know until we encounter it.
- 19:15Joann Muller: And even though there's a lot of simulation, they try you, they use AI to try to imagine every possible scenario.
- 19:24Joann Muller: But they even the best AI system can't imagine everything.
- 19:28Joann Muller: So the point is that we are at the first pitch of the first inning with this technology, and it has great promise.
- 19:37Joann Muller: It could be a World Series champ, but we but we don't know yet, right?
- 19:42Joann Muller: And so um the question is how much are we willing to let to be the guinea pigs as this is being uh rolled out?
- 19:52Jeff Cranson: But all things being, you know, somewhat normal, um I what's normal anymore?
- 19:59Jeff Cranson: I yeah, well, I I know that you believe, um, and I believe that if setting aside all those various scenarios that you're talking about everyday driving on the road, a computer is a better driver than a human.
- 20:11Jeff Cranson: We all think we're we're great drivers, but nobody else is.
- 20:14Jeff Cranson: But they don't have road raids, they don't drink, they don't do drugs.
- 20:17Jeff Cranson: I mean, there's all kinds of reasons to think the computer is gonna be a safer driver, right?
- 20:24Joann Muller: Yes and no.
- 20:25Joann Muller: I mean, I I believe in the promise for sure.
- 20:28Joann Muller: And I believe that they can do what we train them to do very, very well.
- 20:33Joann Muller: Uh, it's what w robot robocars don't have that humans do have, is common sense, is reasoning.
- 20:43Joann Muller: We see things all the time that we have never encountered before.
- 20:48Joann Muller: And we figure it out and we make the best possible choice that we can based on what we know.
- 20:58Joann Muller: The robots only know what they've been trained, and when they don't know, when they are seeing something they haven't been trained on, they are trained to stop and pull over, and that in itself causes problems.
- 21:11Joann Muller: And I think that's what we're seeing right now.
- 21:13Joann Muller: Can a robot drive straight down the highway without weaving, without getting distracted?
- 21:19Joann Muller: Absolutely, they are well trained to do that, they're even now pretty well trained to drive around your neighborhood.
- 21:28Joann Muller: They can see the person with the stroller or the you know, the kid doing something.
- 21:34Joann Muller: The child that runs out from behind a couple rows of cars, right?
- 21:38Joann Muller: Well, this just happened too, as you know, in California.
- 21:41Joann Muller: The but but here's here's where my argument is on that one.
- 21:45Joann Muller: Waymo said our car, as soon as we saw the the child who ran out between two parked cars, we slammed the brakes and we hit the child, unfortunately, but we hit them at six miles an hour.
- 21:59Joann Muller: We did some AI computations and determined that if a human were driving through there at the same speed, they their reaction time would have been slower and they would have hit the child at 14 miles an hour.
- 22:14Joann Muller: What could have happened, you know, if the child is hit at a faster speed?
- 22:19Joann Muller: Okay, that's good.
- 22:21Joann Muller: But when I drive through a school parking uh school drop-off zone, I'm going much lower than the speed limit.
- 22:28Joann Muller: I am looking everywhere.
- 22:30Joann Muller: Or I might even, if I don't have to drive through there, I'm gonna take a different route.
- 22:36Joann Muller: These are the things that humans reason and use common sense that the robot doesn't.
- 22:42Joann Muller: And so Waynebell still has to perfect its system to try to give it some of this common sense, but ultimately humans have superior brains than robots.
- 22:57Jeff Cranson: Yeah, no, that's that's a really good point.
- 22:59Jeff Cranson: Um I would only say um that not every driver is you driving more carefully in a school.
- 23:07Joann Muller: Oh, totally, totally.
- 23:08Joann Muller: Humans are bad drivers.
- 23:10Joann Muller: There's I will not disagree on that.
- 23:12Joann Muller: But uh they also are they're better at reasoning.
- 23:19Jeff Cranson: Yes, I I think that's true.
- 23:20Jeff Cranson: Well, lastly, and this is related to safety, um, because you and I could talk about these things for so long, and I just I love your perspective.
- 23:27Jeff Cranson: But the one that really caught me um was your story about how crashes go up when new music is released.
- 23:34Jeff Cranson: Um talk about that.
- 23:37Joann Muller: Yeah.
- 23:37Joann Muller: Well, so so some uh Harvard Medical School researchers, uh, you know, everybody knows that smartphone distraction is a thing, but it's very hard to measure in the real world.
- 23:52Joann Muller: And so they set out to try to figure out what happens when we know people are probably using their smartphones.
- 24:00Joann Muller: And the best proxy for that, they said, was when big uh albums get released by Taylor Swift or Bad Bunny or Drake, whatever.
- 24:09Joann Muller: And so they looked at five years of data and they compared the federal uh database for fatal accidents with Spotify downloads over the same period of time, five years, and they found that on the days when big albums were released, streaming went up dramatically, and so did fatalities.
- 24:36Joann Muller: You know, that's a correlation, it doesn't necessarily, it's not a causation, but it does make a lot of sense to me.
- 24:44Jeff Cranson: Yes, it does.
- 24:45Jeff Cranson: It absolutely does.
- 24:46Jeff Cranson: I don't know what you do about that.
- 24:47Jeff Cranson: I guess you hope that as the the technology gets better for hands-free driving and uh things that people can do so they don't actually have their phones in their hand, which you're not supposed to do when you're driving in most states, including Michigan anyway.
- 25:00Joann Muller: Yeah, yeah.
- 25:00Jeff Cranson: That reduces that.
- 25:01Jeff Cranson: But Joann, as always, I appreciate it.
- 25:04Jeff Cranson: Um, I want to be sensitive to your time, but I really uh always enjoy these conversations and your insights.
- 25:11Joann Muller: Well, thank you, Jeff.
- 25:12Joann Muller: Great to be with you.
- 25:13Jeff Cranson: I'd like to thank you once more for tuning in to Talking Michigan Transportation.
- 25:17Jeff Cranson: You can find show notes and more on Apple Podcasts or BuzzSprout.
- 25:21Jeff Cranson: I also want to acknowledge the talented people who help make this a reality each week, starting with Randy Debler, who skillfully edits the audio, Jesse Ball, who proofs the content, Courtney Bates, who posts the podcast to various platforms, and Jacke Salinas, who transcribes the audio to make it accessible to all.