Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 191 - 1/6/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 191 - 1/6/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 191 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:34
Happy Monday, a new week begins and we got a lot to get to on a
0:39
big Monday getting back into the swing of things.
0:41
Hope everyone had a great weekend.
0:43
I have for you today a three pack of sweats.
0:46
It's going to be all hoops. I got 2 plays in college
0:48
basketball, including a buy low money line favorite, as well as
0:52
a total where I'm hoping for some points here and going over
0:56
the total hopefully. And then also a play in the NBA
0:59
looking toward a line move here in a rest versus tired
1:01
situation. So a three pack overall.
1:03
Hopefully we can get 2 out of 3 eek out of winning night.
1:06
And then I also want to talk about the NFL postseason because
1:09
I have some interesting stats that are pretty dirty, pretty
1:12
ugly. If you're contrarian, better
1:14
like me, if you're if you're the public, you're going to be very
1:16
happy. As we know, it was a very chalky
1:18
year in the NFL. But I do have some final end of
1:20
season stats here for dogs and favorites straight up and money
1:24
line. And then also I want to start
1:26
talking a little bit early here about these NFL post season
1:30
games because we have wild card weekend coming up, one of my
1:32
favorite weekends of the year. We got two games on Saturday,
1:36
3:00 on Sunday and a Monday Night Football game as well.
1:38
And we're going to talk about historically, what have we seen
1:41
in terms of Wild Card weekend, the postseason betting strategy
1:44
systems. We'll hit on it all today to
1:47
finish up the pod here once we talk about our 3 plays for
1:50
tonight. Also want to mention, thank you
1:52
all for tuning in to the Rhythm live stream yesterday.
1:55
We broke the record for most people logging in and watching
1:59
the live stream, so that was great to see from my myself and
2:03
James Santor. Also by the way, we are going to
2:05
do rhythm live streams on Saturday and Sunday, so double
2:09
dip here for wild card weekend. So stay tuned for that.
2:12
I don't know exactly what time it'll be, but once I find out,
2:15
I'll let you know. So you can always follow me on
2:16
Twitter at Josh under score insights.
2:19
I'll keep you updated there and then, of course, always follow
2:22
the all systems go best bets on Juice reel.
2:25
All best bets are posted on Juice Reel.
2:28
I tweeted out each day for my Twitter account.
2:30
But you can also just go to the Juice Reel, download the app and
2:33
then go to the social tab, click find juicers, type in ASG under
2:37
score podcast. So I was put in some plays this
2:39
weekend and overall it was a pretty good weekend.
2:42
Guys, last time we talked on Friday, that was a three and two
2:45
day plus 0.43 units. We had Georgetown and Temple
2:49
getting it done for the team Minnesota.
2:51
The Gophers lay in the 9 1/2 in the bowl game.
2:53
They came through Texas State in the bowl game, did not cover in
2:57
Ohio State. One of my favorite system
2:59
matches. Remember that unranked home fave
3:01
ranked opponent. Unfortunately, they couldn't get
3:03
it done. But then A21O on Saturday,
3:05
Buffalo on the money line. That was a play that we had
3:08
talked about on Friday's pod and the Buffalo, not the the Bills.
3:12
The Bulls had a big win there in that bowl game, which was nice
3:15
to see. Remember that was a dog to fave
3:17
line move. And then I added Cincinnati on
3:19
the money line. And as we always talk about
3:22
always money line short favorites.
3:24
The Cincinnati Bengals won the game.
3:26
It was a sweat, you know, crazy sweat in that one because they
3:29
almost blew it late. They had a big lead.
3:31
But that's why you money line short favorites end up winning
3:33
the game. But they won by two and they
3:35
closed -2 1/2. So you lost if you if you went
3:39
Cincy in the points or laying the points, you actually won.
3:42
Mike Tomlin as a dog did it again.
3:45
But as always, money lining short favorites came through
3:47
with the Bengals. And then yesterday I mentioned
3:49
on the pod, I didn't really have any plays at the time of
3:52
Friday's pod. But as always, tune into the
3:55
Visen Sharp reports that I write each day.
3:59
Pretty good day as well as the Juice Reel best bets.
4:01
The Jets were a play for me. They're really sharp dog to fave
4:04
line move. Had a couple player props that
4:06
came through. Brian Thomas over 79 1/2.
4:09
Foster Moreau did it again over 21 1/2.
4:12
You may have even added, who is it, the Jacksonville Jaguars
4:17
plus 3 1/2. They lost by three and then the
4:19
Vikings couldn't get the Vikings.
4:21
I really like them +3 even close 2 1/2 at some shops.
4:24
But Sam Darnold, man, I thought he had a really good year.
4:28
He played very well, but he did not play very well last night.
4:31
So couldn't get the Vikings unfortunately.
4:34
But it was a great day if you had the Texans over 9 1/2 win
4:37
total. And that one was dicey because
4:40
we needed to win yesterday to catch the over 9 1/2.
4:42
This is a play that I had put in a quite a while ago, so you can
4:44
always find some of my futures bets on Juicereal as well.
4:48
But that was scary because that line actually moved toward the
4:51
Tennessee Titans. It was Titans dog to fave or
4:54
short fave to a bigger fave. Like I think they close -2 1/2.
4:57
But to answer the one who brung you, thank the Lord Texans came
5:00
through. So it was a good three in one
5:02
Sunday plus 1.57 units. So let's see if we can keep the
5:05
vibes, the good vibes going. Let's get right into it with
5:08
some college hoops as well as NBA.
5:10
And then we're going to talk some NFL early wild card betting
5:13
systems and a couple kind of pretty good leans I have for
5:17
some of these early games. So starting off with some
5:19
college hoops, I want to begin with one of the biggest games of
5:22
the night, Wisconsin and Rutgers big match up here.
5:27
Wisconsin comes in 11 and three, Rutgers 8:00 and 6:00.
5:30
If you haven't watched Dylan Harper junior, Ron Harper's kid,
5:34
he's pretty damn good. So you'll be able to sweat him
5:36
for the first time tonight. Now, I was leaning a little bit
5:39
on Rutgers. You know, this game was like -1
5:42
1/2 Wisconsin on the road, it's up to two.
5:45
I was thinking about buying low on Rutgers.
5:47
It's a contrarian play, but rhythm has got it like basically
5:51
at 1 1/2, two. And then if you look at Ken
5:55
Palm, he basically has Rutgers losing by 4.
5:58
So I did want to go contrarian and play Rutgers.
6:01
But I said, you know what, I like the total more.
6:03
I'm going over with this one, guys.
6:05
Over 157 1/2. Now this game opened about 157
6:10
1/2. At one point it got all the way
6:11
up to as high as 159. Some books are showing 158 1/2
6:15
right now, but shop around. 157 1/2 is available if you want to
6:19
play this over with me. FanDuel, ESPN, Bet and Bet MGM
6:22
all have 157 1/2. What I like about this over a
6:26
couple things. So at one point again, it did
6:28
rise to 159. It never got any lower than 157
6:31
half. So basically it's either stayed
6:33
the same or ticked up, but I really like the bet splits on
6:35
this game. If you look at DraftKings, you
6:37
know this is one of the most heavily bet games of the night
6:39
and typically one of the most heavily bet games. 7:00 Fox
6:42
Sports 1. You would imagine, hey, Publix
6:45
going to hammer that over, but they're a little bit worried
6:47
because this total is kind of high for a college game.
6:50
So at DraftKings, it's basically 5050.
6:53
Only 52% of bets are on the over, but the over's taking in
6:57
64% of dollars. And then at Circa, only 38% of
7:01
bets are on the over, but it accounts for 48% of dollars.
7:04
So basically, you have a 5050 low bets, higher dollars split
7:09
on the over at DraftKings, and you have a legit contrarian over
7:14
available here at Circa based on those splits.
7:16
Now here's where it gets good. Ken Palm, our guy, is predicting
7:20
a final total of 160. Again, he has, as I mentioned a
7:24
second ago, Wisconsin winning 82 to 78.
7:28
So even if he's off a little bit, we just need this thing to
7:31
land at 158. Boom.
7:33
We have a little bit of an edge there with a predicted 160.
7:36
I also like the fact that this is a very short spread.
7:39
You know, Wisconsin's basically -2 so short spread overs back
7:42
and forth, maybe get maybe get overtime, who knows, whatever it
7:46
takes to cash this over. But it's much better than having
7:49
a big spread when you get up big, take your foot off the gas.
7:52
And then also, these are two good offensive teams.
7:55
Wisconsin's averaging 84 points a game.
7:57
Typically Wisconsin is a defensive low scoring team.
8:00
Not this year. They've been doing very well
8:02
offensively and you have Rutgers averaging 79.3 points.
8:06
So both teams are averaging, you know, basically 80 points a
8:09
game. Then you look at some of these
8:12
offensive metrics. Wisconsin is number 12 offensive
8:15
efficiency in all of college hoops.
8:17
Rutgers is number 70. So again, both are are pretty
8:21
decently up there. Effective field goal percentage
8:24
54.4% Wisconsin 51.9% Rutgers. Also 3 point shooting.
8:30
Both these teams are pretty good. 3 point shooting teams
8:33
35.3% for Wisconsin, 33.2% for Rutgers.
8:38
Can you make your free throws again when you're pulling it
8:41
over, you got to make every free throw.
8:42
Those are free points. You got it, you got a bank.
8:45
Wisconsin, believe it or not, is number one in college basketball
8:48
and free throw percentage 85%. Rutgers isn't bad.
8:51
They're 71%. So I'm saying to myself, hey, we
8:55
got a really short spread. Should be a competitive game.
8:58
We have both teams who can score very well.
9:01
These teams can, you know, get into the the 90s if they want to
9:05
or if you know, things are dropping.
9:07
So told me, hey, you know, my heart tells me and you know, I'd
9:11
love to play the contrarian play Rutgers +2.
9:14
I'm rooting for anyone who goes contrarian and takes the points
9:16
of the Rutgers. But I said, you know what, this
9:18
over looks a little bit more appealing to me.
9:21
So we got a good bat split 5050, more money, little bits, higher
9:24
dollars, contrarian over Ken Palms predicting 160 again, good
9:29
offense, effective field goal shooting, 3 point shooting, free
9:32
throw shooting. It got as high as 159.
9:35
I'm going to play this over here. 7:00 Hopefully we can
9:38
start our night off with a win. Let's root for points.
9:41
I'm on Wisconsin, Rutgers over 157 1/2 Next one for you,
9:47
Incarnate Word and Lamar. That's right, tiny little game
9:51
you probably didn't expect me to talk about.
9:53
This is an added game, extra game.
9:55
And I will admit I, of course, I talked about this all the time,
9:58
but I respect added game, extra game line movement.
10:00
So this line did go to Incarnate Word.
10:03
Incarnate Word comes in nine and five.
10:05
Incarnate Word has won four in a row.
10:08
Lamar comes in eight and six. But Lamar's playing pretty well
10:10
also. They have won 123-4567 of their
10:14
last eight. Now it did move toward Incarnate
10:17
Word. They were opening, getting 4 1/2
10:20
the lines down to 3 1/2 or 3. So as soon as this line dropped,
10:23
you got to respect the fact that some sharp betters took
10:26
Incarnate Word plus 4 1/2. But now if you're at a book with
10:30
a -. 3 Lamar, I think we have an opportunity to buy low on Lamar
10:34
here. That's what I'm going to do.
10:35
I'm going to go money line Lamar now.
10:37
I got Lamar on the money line at -160 that was at Bet MGM.
10:41
And here's the reason why I think it's an opportunity to buy
10:44
low on Lamar. One is the fact that Ken Palm
10:48
has a really good advantage play here.
10:50
Ken Palm has Lamar winning by 6. So if you're blame the, you
10:54
know, opener -4 and half with Lamar, yeah, you had a 1 1/2
10:57
point edge based on Ken Palm's projections.
11:00
But now if your money lining Lamar at -3 and Ken Palm's got a
11:04
winning by 6, that's a pretty good edge there.
11:07
So I'm going to buy logo money line Lamar.
11:09
I also noticed Ken Palm has Lamar ranked way higher, ranked
11:12
196 in the country versus 251 for Incarnate Word.
11:17
A big advantage here for Lamar is defensively.
11:20
They rank 131 in defensive efficiency versus 313 for
11:24
Incarnate Word. Also you have a bunch of
11:27
advantages here. Lamar is 17th in the country in
11:31
block shots per game. So hopefully you can, you know,
11:34
swat away some perspective baskets from Incarnate Word.
11:37
Better free throw shooting team, 69% versus 67% More rebounds per
11:42
game. 39 versus 36. They share the ball more. 17
11:46
assists a game versus 13. They steal the ball more. 9
11:50
versus 7 per game. And our friends at Rhythm have
11:53
Lamar -3.5. So you're pretty much right on
11:57
the number here. But here's what I also like
11:58
about Lamar Home Rd. splits. Lamar is four and one at home.
12:03
Incarnate Word is one and four on the road.
12:06
And it's also a bit of a schedule spot because you have
12:08
Incarnate Word playing their second straight Rd. game versus
12:12
Lamar playing their third straight home game.
12:15
So hopefully that is a kind of a home Rd. split advantage here in
12:19
favor of Lamar. So if you told me you got
12:21
Incarnate Word plus 4 1/2, I'd tell you, hey, you're looking
12:24
good right now, you're beating the closing line.
12:25
But now that's all the way down to three.
12:28
I'm going to buy low on Lamar, hope that they can win this game
12:30
and put some trust in Ken Palm telling me this should be a six
12:34
point win by Lamar. So give me Lamar on the money
12:37
line for Bet MGM -160. Now over to some NBA because
12:42
there was one NBA game here that caught my eye with a line move
12:46
as well as kind of some intangibles here that are going
12:49
on. So I'm going to look at a late
12:50
game 10:00 Eastern Time tonight on NBA TV, Miami Heat and the
12:55
Sacramento Kings. Now going into this one, both
12:58
teams are kind of dealing with some things.
13:00
One positively, 1 negatively. I would say in terms of Miami,
13:04
they're 17 and 16 on the year, but they've lost two straight.
13:08
They just suspended Jimmy Butler actually kind of love what Pat
13:10
Riley did. Jimmy Butler, who I like as a
13:12
player, good player, but quit on his team was saying some really
13:16
negative things post game, pretty much demanding a trade.
13:19
You know what Pat Riley did? He said F you Jimmy Butler,
13:22
you're suspended and you're not getting paid.
13:24
So you want to you want to come with the king, you best not
13:27
miss. So I like kind of how Pat Riley
13:29
handed that handled that even though I do like Jimmy Butler as
13:32
a player. But again, you're not as you're
13:34
not as you're not bigger than the team buddy.
13:37
Anyway, Sacramento Kings, they've won three straight and
13:39
they just fired their head coach.
13:41
So kind of that new head coach boost.
13:43
I believe their coach is Doug Christie, who was part of that
13:46
really good. And I'm showing my age here.
13:48
I'm 37. But I remember I think it was in
13:50
high school. It was like middle school.
13:52
Remember pages Stojakovic, Vladi Divots, Doug Christie, Chris
13:56
Webber, that really good that Kings team back in the day.
13:59
I believe he's their coach now. But anyway, we've seen this line
14:03
move toward the Kings. It opened around kings -2 1/2 at
14:06
home -3 at some shops it's now up to -3 1/2.
14:11
And a lot of shops are juiced up like it may even go to four.
14:13
And I even do see one book at 4:00.
14:15
So it's been pretty consistent. Open the current line moving
14:18
toward Sacramento Kings. Now I look at the spread bets at
14:21
circa 75% of bets, 98% of dollars on Sacramento.
14:26
So it tells me out in Vegas, the wise guys are leaning toward the
14:29
Sacramento Kings also. I really like this.
14:32
Rest first tired. The Sacramento Kings last played
14:35
on the 3rd of January and the Heat last played on the 4th.
14:39
So one day rest advantage. But if you even pull the clock
14:41
back a little bit or the calendar back, this is the the
14:45
Sacramento Kings only their second game in five days versus
14:49
the Heat who are playing there. Let me get this straight, their
14:53
4th game in six days. So the Heat played on New Year's
14:57
Day, the second, the 4th and then now tonight versus the
15:00
Kings who played New Year's Day, the third and then now obviously
15:05
playing today. So rest first tired in favor of
15:08
the Kings. I'm going to bank on the Kings
15:10
offensive efficiency. They're ever they are 7th in the
15:13
in the in the country in the NBA versus 13th for the Miami Heat.
15:18
I did dial up in my database home favorites.
15:22
Again, this is just them winning straight up.
15:24
You're paying juice. You're you're paying a big
15:26
price. So it's not profitable overall,
15:27
but home favorites are 217 and 97 straight up.
15:32
That is a near 70% win percentage.
15:34
And I also like the fact that non conference favorite.
15:37
So Kings from the West, heat from the east.
15:40
Lack of familiarity benefits the better team historically.
15:44
So I'm going to go money line here.
15:45
Just win the damn game. Sacramento Kings again, you got
15:48
the Jimmy Butler issues with the heat.
15:50
They're in a tough spot playing their 4th game in six days.
15:53
Sacramento Kings new coach boost got the line move and they're
15:58
they're rested in the spot. So I'm going with the Sacramento
16:01
Kings to win this game. I got them on the money line at
16:03
Bet MGM -165. Now let's talk about a couple
16:10
post season trends or betting systems and then I'll talk about
16:14
some NFL post season games for the wild Card weekend.
16:17
We're where we're already seeing system matches and line moves.
16:20
So I want to start off with unfortunately, cover your ears
16:23
earmuffs. It wasn't a great year for us
16:26
contrarian betters because it was an epic public year.
16:29
You don't need me to tell you about that, but it's I'm going
16:32
to build a basically information and then ask you a question.
16:36
So great year for the public, bad year for books and
16:39
contrarians favorites on the year.
16:41
Now you did see dogs go nine and seven ATS last yesterday, which
16:44
was nice to see. But on the year favorites 143
16:48
and 124 against the spread 54%. That was the best ATS chalk year
16:53
since 2017 and it was the 4th best chalk year since 2003.
16:59
So total aberration in terms of all these favorites.
17:03
Then you look at favorites, straight up they went 177 and
17:06
6473%. That was the best chalk year
17:10
since 2005. Obviously not good for us
17:13
contrarians. That basically just meant a lot
17:15
of favorites covered dogs didn't bark.
17:17
And even for the books, like you couldn't even get a dog to win
17:20
outright. You know, we can't get a dog to
17:23
cover 3 1/2 and you know, typically you'd cover the 3 1/2
17:26
and you'd win the game. That just didn't happen this
17:28
year. So my question is if you are a
17:32
public better, I would assume you had one of your best years
17:35
ever and now you're going in the playoffs saying give me more
17:38
favorites because they did so well this year.
17:40
But I'm thinking hopefully, fingers crossed we see
17:44
regression to dogs. Now, here's some good stats to
17:47
remember. And I tweeted this at Josh under
17:50
score insights, my Twitter, if you want to just, you know, kind
17:52
of look at it or book market. But since 2017 in the
17:57
postseason, pretty good sample size.
17:59
Playoff dogs 52 and 34 against the spread, 61% dogs do very
18:05
well in the postseason. These lines are very, very sharp
18:08
because the odds makers have a lot of data and they've
18:10
basically tweaked their power ratings to create really sharp
18:13
numbers. You have the influx of public
18:15
betting in the postseason, especially a public that is fat
18:18
and happy after having a really good year.
18:20
So hopefully it will pay to go the other way.
18:23
Now, wild card dogs in particular, since 2017, they're
18:26
24 and 12 against the spread 67%.
18:29
And then if you dig a little deeper, playoff dogs who missed
18:32
the playoffs the previous year. A lot of people you'll hear in
18:35
on Twitter, like, who are they? The bright lights?
18:37
They're not used to it. They don't have experience.
18:39
That's true. But it's actually been probable
18:42
to buy low on those teams. We have some matches this
18:44
weekend. Those teams went 39 and 20
18:47
against the spread, 66% since 2017.
18:50
A playoff dog playing an opponent who missed the playoffs
18:53
the previous year. Unbelievable.
18:55
They've gone 14 and one against the spread since 2017.
18:59
So if you tell me, you just say, hey, Josh, I bang my head
19:03
against the wall with dogs are not covering for me.
19:05
I'm going favorites this postseason.
19:06
I would say, hey, you have the power to do that.
19:09
But based on these stats and the year that the books had, I'm
19:12
hoping that we see some regression towards some dogs.
19:15
Now that being said, couple early games I want to hit on
19:19
Chargers Houston. This is the early game on
19:22
Saturday 4:30 PM, and I've noticed some sharp money,
19:25
believe it or not, on Houston +3.
19:28
Now this game open chargers -3 the public is all over the
19:32
Chargers on the Harbaugh bandwagon.
19:34
Fading Houston here. CJ Stroud obviously didn't have
19:36
the greatest sophomore campaign, but 82% of bets on Chargers they
19:41
open -3 they've either stayed 3 or even gotten down to 2 1/2.
19:45
So that tells me we got some smart money here going Houston
19:47
+3, some line freezer RLM. You also have wild card dogs
19:53
versus opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year. 14
19:56
and one ATS that would match on Houston.
19:58
Houston is one of your top contrarian plays of the wild
20:01
card weekend. Only 18% of spread bets at
20:04
DraftKings, but Circus got a really good split on the Texans.
20:07
20% bets, 49% dollars. So my angle here is I'll be
20:13
taking the +3 with Houston now. You can consider grabbing it now
20:18
because there are a lot of shops getting down to 2 1/2.
20:20
But if it gets down to 2 1/2 and you missed the three, this is a
20:23
great teaser play taking Houston 2 1/2 up to 8 1/2.
20:26
So those would be your options here because that's the Wong
20:29
teaser that goes through three and seven that wise guys like to
20:31
play. So plus three, 2 1/2 to 8 1/2.
20:35
I'll be on Houston here this weekend.
20:38
I didn't notice smart money under here.
20:39
It opened 4444 1/2. It's down to 42 1/2.
20:43
Publix on the over, yet it fell. Texans were one of the best
20:46
under teams in in the NFL this year.
20:49
They're 11:00 and 6:00 to the under.
20:52
And you do have when the total falls at least 1/2 point in the
20:54
playoff game, 58% to the under since 2017.
21:00
Next one I wanted to mention Washington, Tampa Bay.
21:03
I'm looking toward the Commanders plus 3 1/2 here now.
21:06
It opened around Tampa -3 and there's kind of been a back and
21:10
forth where the books are juicing up Tampa -3 -, 115.
21:14
But every time the sign gets to 3 1/2, it keeps coming back down
21:17
to Washington. So that tells me you have a
21:20
little bit of dueling smart money on maybe some pros like
21:23
Tampa -3 but then a lot of maybe other pros like Washington plus
21:28
3 1/2. Now I like the 3 1/2 with
21:30
Washington, they're only getting half the tickets, but 67%
21:34
dollars at DraftKings and they would match that playoff dog who
21:37
missed the playoffs the previous year. 39 and 28 TS 28% since
21:42
2017. So if you like Washington, hold
21:45
out for the hook on this one. Also, the total is the highest
21:48
total of any game this wild card week and it's 50 1/2 even 51 if
21:53
you can get access to a 51. I would lean under here.
21:56
It opened fifty and a half pretty much hasn't moved.
21:58
That's important because the public, even though it's a high
22:00
total, they're still going over. 70% of bets are on the over, but
22:05
only 30% bets. But 45% dollars are on the
22:08
under. And when you have a playoff high
22:09
total of 47 or more, the under is 62% since 2018.
22:15
So I'd lean under here as of now.
22:17
And I would look toward the hook if you can get it with
22:20
Washington. But my favorite game of a wild
22:24
card weekend is a Monday Night Football game.
22:26
Vikings, Rams. Now, this is the biggest,
22:29
sharpest move that I've seen for wild card weekend.
22:32
It opened Minnesota -2 1/2 public even only saw Minnesota
22:37
get blown out last night, which was annoying to me because item
22:40
plus 3. But anyway, they're still
22:42
playing Minnesota. As of right now, you are getting
22:45
68% of bets on the Vikings. But guys, the line didn't get up
22:49
to three or three and a half. This is down to 1 1/2 the lines
22:52
falling toward the Rams, even though public 2/3 of batters are
22:56
on Minnesota. So big sharp reverse line move
22:59
again. When the line is moving away
23:01
from the popular side toward the unpopular side in favor of the
23:03
Rams, there's a good contrarian play.
23:06
LA is only getting 32% of spread bets.
23:09
Could be a great teaser play. Now that it's down to 1 1/2.
23:14
You know you're thinking of either taking the 1 1/2.
23:16
You could be a little bold and money line the Rams, but you can
23:19
get the 1 1/2 up to 7 1/2 with the Rams.
23:23
Maybe you pair that with Houston 2 and half to 8 1/2.
23:25
I think that could be worth a look.
23:27
The other angle here is when you take a wild card dog and you
23:32
tease them up six points, they're 29 and 781% covering the
23:37
number since 2017. Also put in there, hey, Rams
23:41
have a lot of experience. They won a Super Bowl a few
23:43
years ago, Stafford McVeigh versus Minnesota and Darnold,
23:47
who Darnold did not look good in the bright lights last night.
23:50
There's also an angle there of you know, the Rams sat there
23:53
guys last yesterday Minnesota to play a really physical game
23:57
against Detroit. So it's almost the rest first
23:59
tired in favor of the Rams. So keep an eye on that.
24:02
And I think there's a stat there.
24:04
I want to say the team that plays the Detroit Lions the
24:09
following week. I believe they're six and ten
24:11
straight up speaks to how physical the Lions are.
24:14
So I'm looking at Rams. So that about does it guys.
24:17
Just wanted to wet your whistle, give you a little bit of taste,
24:19
hear of some post season talk because this is really the best
24:23
time of year you get post season.
24:25
We're really going to start to focus heavily on college hoops,
24:28
March Madness, conference tournaments.
24:30
That's not that far off. And we'll continue to look at
24:32
NHL and NBA as well. And before you know it, I know
24:35
baseball. Baseball is not that far off
24:37
either. So that about does it for
24:40
episode 191 of the ASG Pod Powered by Rhythm.
24:43
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up, and I
24:46
start by asking a favor of you. Could you please do me a solid
24:50
and give this podcast a five star review?
24:52
If you enjoy listening, if you enjoy the breakdowns, if you
24:55
look forward to the pod #1 thank you #2 could you take two or
24:59
three seconds, go to rate and review on Spotify or iTunes and
25:02
give it five stars? It'll mean a lot to me.
25:04
Help us to grow the pod. If you want to recommend it to a
25:06
friend or click the follow button, that would be fantastic
25:09
as well. Secondly, if you enjoy this
25:12
style of betting breakdown, you're intrigued by data-driven
25:15
betting. Maybe you never knew you always
25:17
thought betting was like a gut instinct or, you know, go with,
25:20
you know, the obvious play or you know, don't worry about, you
25:23
know, supplementary factors like data line movement, bet splits,
25:26
that kind of stuff. And now you've been turned onto
25:29
it and you see the value and, you know, kind of paying
25:32
attention to the market and going with the, you know, the
25:34
contrarian sharp play instead of your gut instinct, which again,
25:38
our guts. You know, sometimes they're
25:39
right, but in sports betting they're often not right.
25:43
But if you want to learn more about data-driven betting or you
25:45
want to let me know you appreciate the pod, go buy my
25:48
book. It's less than 20 bucks.
25:50
You could gift it to a friend or buddy of yours or colleague or
25:53
somebody who parlays everything and you can send them right to
25:56
the bankroll management chapter. But just go to Amazon.com type
26:00
in the everything guide to sports betting.
26:03
I pick one up for you or a friend.
26:04
It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
26:06
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
26:09
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
26:11
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
26:14
a bankroll management plan. It's all included in the
26:16
everything guide to sports betting.
26:19
Next, have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of Juice
26:22
Reel or Rhythm yet to my favorite sports betting apps
26:25
around the help me when they're going to help you win.
26:28
So rhythm a fantastic job of powering this pod.
26:31
They do a great job of providing us basically our own power
26:35
ratings based on AI models and analytics game bets player props
26:40
go download rhythm right now if you haven't done it yet and then
26:43
juice reel where you can access all the ASG pod best bets.
26:47
They're 499 a week. That's $4.99 cup of coffee,
26:51
considered a tip jar. If you like the pod, you want to
26:53
get the plays early, beat some closing lines.
26:57
Sometimes I put in bets, you know, hours before the pod
26:59
start. So if we can get a better
27:00
number. But if you want to follow ASG
27:04
pod, you can check those tweets I put out each day or go to that
27:07
social tab and click ASG under score podcast.
27:11
But not just for that. You can look at sharp mush
27:13
indicators. You can also look at arbitrage
27:16
opportunities. Really good for shopping for the
27:18
best line futures as well. They do a really good job of
27:21
like, hey, you want you want to bet the Lions to win the Super
27:23
Bowl again, find the best number quickly by going to the futures
27:27
tab and it'll tell you what book has the best Lions price.
27:29
Or maybe you think Eagles, you know, could be worth a look.
27:32
I think they're like 706 hundred something like that.
27:35
But go download juice rail, go download rhythm and you'll be
27:38
off and running. Hopefully another tool in the
27:40
data-driven toolbox. So that about does it for
27:43
episode 191 of the ASG pod, whether I see you at the Borgata
27:48
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook in New
27:50
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut, at the
27:54
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
27:57
In my neck of the woods in Massachusetts or out in the
27:59
desert where the true grinders get down.
28:01
Where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the lowest
28:04
juice possible is found at the South Point.
28:06
Or Sweat and Sharp can train plays jumping in the stadium
28:09
swimming pool. When you cash a big ticket at
28:10
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
28:13
And since Friday, you're going to show me some good tickets
28:15
here, guys. Georgetown, Temple Gophers
28:18
laying 9 1/2 in the bowl game. Buffalo bowl game, the Bengals
28:21
money lining a short favorite The Jets, Brian Thomas, Foster
28:25
Monroe. Guess what first one's on me,
28:27
next one's on you. We're going to post about the
28:29
book sweatshark and train plays all night long.
28:32
So wish you the best of luck have a great Monday guys.
28:35
Again, the calm before the storm.
28:37
I love the post season in the NFL.
28:40
Hopefully we'll have a good NFL playoffs here and then also we
28:43
have the college football final four here so we have to talk
28:46
about that coming up here. The next game is Notre Dame and
28:50
Penn State and I'm looking early.
28:53
Notre Dame I just saw they move -1 1/2 up to -2 and then Ohio
28:57
State. Texas.
28:58
Everyone loves Ohio State in that one.
29:00
Will it be a buy low Texas? Can we get a 6 1/2 with Texas?
29:04
Those are just some early thoughts but I haven't played
29:05
any yet. But anyway guys, best of luck as
29:09
always. Stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
29:11
against the public, place yourself on the side of the
29:13
house. Always be with the smart money,
29:15
never against it. Will smart money when every
29:16
time? Unfortunately, no, because
29:19
betting is hard if you haven't realized yet.
29:21
But we can win. We can win if we stay true to
29:23
the model that games with our head and not our heart.
29:25
Against the public, with the sharps, with the pros, with the
29:29
house flat bet, no parlays, get that CLV.
29:32
If we can do that and confident that we can, we're going to be
29:35
successful sports bettors. So have a great Monday
29:38
everybody. We have 3 bets tonight.
29:39
Let's try to go 2 and one each out of profit and be right back
29:42
at it tomorrow for a big Tuesday edition of the ASG Pod.
29:46
That'll be episode 192 of the All Systems Gopod powered by
29:50
Rhythm. Good luck everybody, have a
29:52
great night.