Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 1 and a Farewell to Scooch

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NFL Week 1 and a Farewell to Scooch · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the Podcast. I am Chad Millman
0:13
Speaker 1: from the Action Network. Have you ever tried to win
0:16
Speaker 1: one million dollars? I have done it many many times.
0:19
Speaker 1: I have tried for several years in various NFL season
0:23
Speaker 1: long pick um contests. Last year, professional better Simon Hunter
0:26
Speaker 1: joined the pod every week during the NFL season. He
0:29
Speaker 1: offered pick um contest advice and I came closer than
0:33
Speaker 1: I ever have to cashing. That is totally true. I
0:36
Speaker 1: finished like a game and a half out of winning something.
0:40
Speaker 1: So this year we are taking it a step further.
0:44
Speaker 1: DraftKings offers the Pro Football pick Um National Championship for
0:48
Speaker 1: people in New Jersey. Simon is in New Jersey every week.
0:51
Speaker 1: We're going to decide what picks he should put in.
0:56
Speaker 1: Along the way, as he did last year, he's going
0:59
Speaker 1: to offer to notch insight into how professional letters breakdown games,
1:03
Speaker 1: what they look for, etcetera. But you also, this is
1:07
Speaker 1: what Simon is so good at, get lessons in game
1:09
Speaker 1: theory and strategies to outwit all of the opponents. And
1:15
Speaker 1: and you're becoming in just a minute and a reminder,
1:20
Speaker 1: a reminder we've been doing phrase that pays giveaways all
1:24
Speaker 1: season long, all offseason long. Now football is back. We're
1:27
Speaker 1: not going to stop. Good review the podcast, using the
1:29
Speaker 1: phrase Simon says, if we like it and we randomly
1:32
Speaker 1: choose it, you will win a free action network couldy.
1:35
Speaker 1: We will announce last week's winner at the end of
1:37
Speaker 1: the show. We will announce all winners at the end
1:39
Speaker 1: of the shows. But first, this is almost making me cry.
1:45
Speaker 1: Horribly sad news. We have reached the end of an era.
1:49
Speaker 1: Bob Scucci, bookmaker to the world, my friend of more
1:51
Speaker 1: than twenty years, the man who may or may not
1:54
Speaker 1: have written the odds, my co host on the pod
1:57
Speaker 1: for the past several years, is retiring from the podcast
2:01
Speaker 1: business Scooche, It's up chat. Say it ain't so, brother,
2:22
Speaker 1: say it ain't so. No, I wish I could, but
2:26
Speaker 1: it is so. This will have to be my last podcast.
2:30
Speaker 1: I don't even know what to say. Like the number
2:32
Speaker 1: of people who have been tweeting Abby say, and when
2:34
Speaker 1: is Scooch coming on the podcast? You and I have
2:36
Speaker 1: been friends for twenty years. We've been doing this for
2:40
Speaker 1: more than twenty years. We've been doing this podcast for
2:42
Speaker 1: like six or seven years. The number of things that
2:45
Speaker 1: have happened like the Scooch pod, the like Scooch can
2:50
Speaker 1: set a line on the equator, scoot the scootls hashtag
2:55
Speaker 1: Scooch is ms. Hashtag scooch is ms. There's one story
2:59
Speaker 1: that stands out for me during your time on the podcast.
3:02
Speaker 1: But I need to know what your favorite memory is.
3:06
Speaker 1: I've got a few of them. When Jen and I
3:08
Speaker 1: got married and some of the uh, some of the
3:11
Speaker 1: outpouring of kind of emotion and support of the letters
3:15
Speaker 1: and gifts that was pretty impressive. I I really, uh
3:19
Speaker 1: found that kind of touching and moving. And you know,
3:22
Speaker 1: all the years that I resisted doing the podcast in
3:25
Speaker 1: the in the first place, that kind of made it
3:28
Speaker 1: all worthwhile to me doing so. There was a there
3:31
Speaker 1: was a few of them during that time period. I
3:33
Speaker 1: feel like before you got married, I may have been
3:36
Speaker 1: the longest relationship you've ever had outside of your family. Obviously,
3:43
Speaker 1: I have commitment issues, Yeah, clearly, I I think for
3:47
Speaker 1: me and we should we should, we should let people
3:49
Speaker 1: know why you're retiring from the podcast. It's not because
3:51
Speaker 1: like you're leaving BOYD Gaming. Uh, It's it's because you've
3:57
Speaker 1: been elevated into such a exalted status beyond being bookmaker
4:03
Speaker 1: of the world. Uh that you can't what anymore? Yeah,
4:08
Speaker 1: I mean I can't book the games anymore. I mean
4:10
Speaker 1: they're simply not enough time. I mean that that to
4:12
Speaker 1: me was always the funnest part of the job, and
4:15
Speaker 1: and for for thirty years. Uh it still remains kind
4:19
Speaker 1: of like the most intriguing and exciting part. But with
4:22
Speaker 1: the expansion of sports betting across the country and Boyd
4:26
Speaker 1: Gaming's footprint, uh you know, across uh ten different states
4:30
Speaker 1: and twenty nine different properties, my my time is stretched
4:34
Speaker 1: pretty thin opening up new sports books and uh working
4:39
Speaker 1: with our strategic partners across the country. I mean, I
4:43
Speaker 1: just simply don't have time to be going through the
4:45
Speaker 1: games and to be uh watching all the games in
4:49
Speaker 1: order to be making any kind of odds adjustments or
4:52
Speaker 1: anything like that. I mean, it's just there's not there's
4:55
Speaker 1: not enough hours in the day. I liked the new role,
4:58
Speaker 1: but I missed the most the most fun part of
5:01
Speaker 1: the job, which was actually booking the games. And you know,
5:05
Speaker 1: I really couldn't kind of come on a podcast and
5:07
Speaker 1: talk about moving any of the lines if I'm not
5:10
Speaker 1: really not really doing it anymore. By the way, you
5:13
Speaker 1: might be the only credible person in podcasting who decided
5:18
Speaker 1: they need to know what they're talking about in order
5:23
Speaker 1: to go on a podcast. I can't even believe we're
5:25
Speaker 1: having this conversation. I am thinking back to the time
5:30
Speaker 1: where you had an insurance issue and you called someone
5:37
Speaker 1: in customer service. Do you remember this story? I do, Yeah.
5:41
Speaker 1: It was. It was a work related insurance having to
5:44
Speaker 1: do with my insurance with with board gaming and I
5:48
Speaker 1: and I remember calling uh customer service in Michigan trying
5:52
Speaker 1: to describe what the situation I was in in The
5:55
Speaker 1: person on the other line was like, is this the
5:58
Speaker 1: Bob Scucci that does the podcast? And we ended up
6:02
Speaker 1: talking about talking about the podcast, just some random person
6:08
Speaker 1: on the other end. And I get that all the time.
6:11
Speaker 1: You know. I went to a local golf course out
6:13
Speaker 1: here and I just walked on the golf course, had
6:15
Speaker 1: some free time, and uh, I was just a single
6:18
Speaker 1: uh so I wasn't part of a forceman or anything.
6:20
Speaker 1: And he said what's the name? And I said, I
6:22
Speaker 1: said Bob Scucci and he got like real quiet. I said,
6:26
Speaker 1: is that is that a problem? He's like, do you
6:28
Speaker 1: do a podcast with Chad Milman? I was like, yeah
6:31
Speaker 1: to me. We ended up talking for you know, fifteen
6:34
Speaker 1: minutes before I got on the course. What about the
6:37
Speaker 1: time you got into the limo. No, you didn't get
6:41
Speaker 1: into the limo. Tony got in the limo. My my
6:44
Speaker 1: boss got got in the limo. And he's in the
6:47
Speaker 1: limo's he's in I think Arizona, coming from the Phoenix airport.
6:52
Speaker 1: And they got to talking and he said, you know,
6:54
Speaker 1: what do you do? And he's like, I'm a casino
6:56
Speaker 1: executive and what company? And he said, BOYD gay me
7:00
Speaker 1: And he goes, do you know Bob Scucci. He's like,
7:04
Speaker 1: I'd say, I know him. He works for me some
7:08
Speaker 1: fun stuff. I mean, across the country. I can't believe
7:12
Speaker 1: how many people really, uh you know, tuned in and
7:15
Speaker 1: really really enjoyed the podcast, and how many people that
7:19
Speaker 1: actually came to the Orleans you know, when my office
7:22
Speaker 1: was was mainly over there, and came in just to
7:24
Speaker 1: you know, just to talk with me, and brought in
7:26
Speaker 1: the book and I see the I see the odds
7:29
Speaker 1: right across your your shoulder there right behind your head.
7:32
Speaker 1: You know. They were bringing copies of the book and
7:35
Speaker 1: I and I signed those. I mean, it was really great.
7:37
Speaker 1: The guys, the guys in the Orleans used to give
7:39
Speaker 1: me a hard time. They said, maybe we should get
7:41
Speaker 1: a big cardboard cut out of you, you know, just
7:43
Speaker 1: like this and take take photos. But no, it was
7:48
Speaker 1: really is really touching. It was great. It only took me, uh,
7:52
Speaker 1: almost three years at the Action Network of working from
7:56
Speaker 1: my house and six months of a pandemic to completely
8:00
Speaker 1: redo my office and create a brand new studio space
8:06
Speaker 1: that is conducive for both podcasting and recording video at
8:11
Speaker 1: the same time. And somehow I decided to do it
8:14
Speaker 1: and highlight the book that we did together that came
8:18
Speaker 1: out in two thousand one March of two one. Right
8:24
Speaker 1: when you decide to leave me, Chad Melman wrote a book,
8:29
Speaker 1: Finding is Impeccable. As always, the the impact you've had
8:34
Speaker 1: just on like this show is insane. Matt Mitchell, who's
8:40
Speaker 1: the producer, You may remember when you and I were
8:43
Speaker 1: doing the podcast at ESPN and we would do that
8:46
Speaker 1: you bet your life segment. Matt Mitchell, who was working
8:50
Speaker 1: in sales and had a six week old baby and
8:54
Speaker 1: was married, decided to ditch his job as a thirtysomething
8:58
Speaker 1: guy in sales with a new fan to go study
9:01
Speaker 1: audio storytelling. It's Syracuse. He has a master's degree because
9:06
Speaker 1: he loved the podcast and he loved listening to you.
9:10
Speaker 1: And then he came on you bet your life to
9:12
Speaker 1: tell us the story and you were like, dude, that's crazy.
9:17
Speaker 1: I'm atill now runs this podcast. That's a that is amazing,
9:21
Speaker 1: And I said, and it was crazy, and now it's amazing.
9:24
Speaker 1: So I still feel same same sentiments, Scooch. I don't
9:28
Speaker 1: know what I'm gonna do without you. We've been working together,
9:30
Speaker 1: like working on gambling stuff together. Seriously, Wow, the dead
9:36
Speaker 1: go back quicky one years. Honest to God, Not only
9:43
Speaker 1: am I at the Action Network because of the odds,
9:47
Speaker 1: and not only do the odds work, because like, you
9:50
Speaker 1: were so good at translating what happens in the world
9:54
Speaker 1: of gambling to me in a way that felt colorful
9:57
Speaker 1: and impactful. But then, I don't if you remember this.
10:00
Speaker 1: In two thousand eight, I did a column for ESPN
10:05
Speaker 1: dot com like I saw a wacky line for the
10:07
Speaker 1: Giants and Eagles, Like that's weird. I called you up.
10:10
Speaker 1: You explained to me why the line was so wacky.
10:12
Speaker 1: I did a column that turned into a weekly column,
10:16
Speaker 1: which turned into a daily column, which turned into a podcast,
10:19
Speaker 1: which turned into stuff on E sixty, which turned into
10:23
Speaker 1: hits on Sports Center, which turned into me being the
10:27
Speaker 1: face of gambling at ESPN, which turned into me launching
10:31
Speaker 1: the gambling coverage and hiring people to do it, and
10:34
Speaker 1: then going to Action Network. Yeah, and I'll tell you,
10:37
Speaker 1: you know, you you don't give yourself enough credit. But
10:40
Speaker 1: all those years when sports betting was relegated to Las
10:44
Speaker 1: Vegas and Nevada and some kind of off short places,
10:48
Speaker 1: all those years, you in the mainstream sports media were
10:53
Speaker 1: kind of the voice of sports betting UM, and in
10:56
Speaker 1: some cases it was kind of still kind of a pariah.
11:00
Speaker 1: I mean, it wasn't fully accepted in all circles. Uh.
11:04
Speaker 1: And now twenty years later, it's, uh, you know, it's
11:07
Speaker 1: booming all over the country. It's uh, you know, out
11:10
Speaker 1: the open, socially accepted. And uh, I think you paved
11:13
Speaker 1: a lot of that way. And you know, kind of
11:15
Speaker 1: any shows moving forward or or kind of just kind
11:18
Speaker 1: of imitations of things that you've done over the over
11:21
Speaker 1: the years, Scoots, twenty one years later, I've paved the
11:25
Speaker 1: way so much that I am working off of a
11:27
Speaker 1: cardboard box with props that I hung myself in the
11:32
Speaker 1: corner of my office. Yet you you have gone on
11:36
Speaker 1: to such big things you can't even do this podcast anymore. Look,
11:40
Speaker 1: it's not going to be the same without you. Listeners
11:43
Speaker 1: will be disappointed. No pressure on, Simon Hunter. Obviously, I
11:48
Speaker 1: love you and adore you. We will stay in touch absolutely,
11:52
Speaker 1: and I will share whatever tidbits you give me, even
11:55
Speaker 1: if you don't know anything, I will continue to share
11:58
Speaker 1: them on the podcast. It sounds great, man, ain't going out,
12:01
Speaker 1: but uh, I guess you know the time. The time
12:04
Speaker 1: has come, and uh you know, we'll stay in touch.
12:07
Speaker 1: And if you want to have me on the show
12:08
Speaker 1: at some point just to talk about something else than
12:11
Speaker 1: you know, maybe that will happen. I think it makes
12:13
Speaker 1: perfectly good sense for you, as probably the best bookmaker
12:17
Speaker 1: translating gambling information in the country, to go out right
12:21
Speaker 1: as sports betting in the media is becoming as popular
12:24
Speaker 1: as it is. That is the exact kind of timing
12:26
Speaker 1: you want, Scooch perfect the end of an era. All right, brother,
12:32
Speaker 1: alright to you later. Take care. Coming up next, Simon
12:35
Speaker 1: Hunter with professional better breakdowns for every game on the SCD,
12:39
Speaker 1: five of which will become his entries into the Draft
12:42
Speaker 1: Kings Pro Football pick Up National Championship reminder. Review of
12:46
Speaker 1: the podcast using the phrase sign and says, and if
12:48
Speaker 1: we like it and randomly choose it, you will win
12:51
Speaker 1: a free Action Network hoodie. Here we go and now
13:00
Speaker 1: word from a wise guy with Simon Hunter. Simon, dude,
13:08
Speaker 1: You've got a lot of responsibility, now, brother, a lot
13:11
Speaker 1: of responsibility. Do you know what I'm saying? You're letting
13:14
Speaker 1: a crazy man drive this car. Hopefully I don't crash it,
13:16
Speaker 1: Like I have never been more nervous. We are basically
13:20
Speaker 1: replacing Scooch with you. Scooches decided to step aside, and
13:24
Speaker 1: you fell into our lives last year and who knew
13:26
Speaker 1: that a year later, like you're gonna be like the
13:29
Speaker 1: new husband on Bewitched. Yeah, we're all gonna miss Scooch.
13:33
Speaker 1: I love the insight of hearing from a bookmaker, but
13:36
Speaker 1: hopefully I can bring it another side of the spread
13:38
Speaker 1: and my viewpoints on different games, though. We'll see. We'll
13:42
Speaker 1: see how this season treats us with COVID going on. Well, listen,
13:45
Speaker 1: you were ridiculously good last year and it got better
13:47
Speaker 1: during the off season as you sort of started to
13:50
Speaker 1: really relay like very specific insights and very specific ways
13:56
Speaker 1: in which you look at games. Like to me, one
13:59
Speaker 1: of the tighlights from this offseason was when you were
14:02
Speaker 1: talking about how you rate teams for home field advantage,
14:06
Speaker 1: and not just teams like the Chiefs or teams like
14:09
Speaker 1: the Eagles or the Browns losing points for home field advantage,
14:13
Speaker 1: but teams like the Redskins and the Dolphins gaining for
14:15
Speaker 1: home field advantage. Just remind people, like, that's the kind
14:18
Speaker 1: of insight you're gonna be getting. Remind people how you
14:19
Speaker 1: thought about that as a better Like I talked with
14:22
Speaker 1: our lovely producer Matt Mitchell, it's been funny putting into
14:25
Speaker 1: my system the no fans, because some teams already saying
14:28
Speaker 1: they're gonna add fans, like the Cowboys, Jerry World, He's
14:31
Speaker 1: gonna have fans the whole time. The different teams when
14:33
Speaker 1: I put in the different algorithm of what it's gonna
14:36
Speaker 1: be like with fans and what the point spread should
14:38
Speaker 1: be depending on fans. Like we talked before, teams that
14:41
Speaker 1: produced well in the second half and we're able to
14:42
Speaker 1: come back down big spreads are able to keep big
14:45
Speaker 1: leads when they're at home. It was interesting the teams
14:48
Speaker 1: that did cover that Cleveland, Like I random team people
14:50
Speaker 1: reallyn't think Cleveland was good, but more often not, even
14:52
Speaker 1: the last twenty five years, they've covered at home a
14:55
Speaker 1: lot of games that should mean the Browns have been bad.
14:58
Speaker 1: So just this upcoming week, the books kind of changed
15:01
Speaker 1: all these lines because they're updating. It's official now a
15:05
Speaker 1: lot of these teams don't have fans, and a lot
15:07
Speaker 1: of these sharks at these numbers that these books are
15:09
Speaker 1: kind of acting like some of these teams are gonna
15:10
Speaker 1: have fans. So you saw like the Steelers, they jumped
15:13
Speaker 1: up three points. They're up to six six and a half.
15:15
Speaker 1: Now there's been a lot of movement with the no
15:18
Speaker 1: fans coming in, and this is going to have a
15:20
Speaker 1: massive impact on like the decisions we make every week.
15:23
Speaker 1: We're trying to find five games when a free gloat
15:26
Speaker 1: to money and a lot of this stuff is going
15:30
Speaker 1: to either make us think differently about games than we
15:33
Speaker 1: otherwise would have thought of and imagine how much more
15:35
Speaker 1: complicated it's going to get when we get into the
15:37
Speaker 1: season and injuries are piling up or we're seeing how
15:41
Speaker 1: certain teams are playing or we're seeing trends that are
15:43
Speaker 1: being established. We should look at Week one, the Chiefs
15:47
Speaker 1: at home against the Texans. Their nine point favorites on DraftKings.
15:51
Speaker 1: Right now they were ten. The number has dropped. How
15:55
Speaker 1: are you accounting for home field? There's a super Bowl
15:58
Speaker 1: sort of legacy now to protect Patrick Mahomes, the richest
16:02
Speaker 1: player in football, Deshaun Watson signing a massive contract. Marquee
16:06
Speaker 1: match out hardly great in this thing. Like to me,
16:08
Speaker 1: this is not a game that I would want to bet.
16:10
Speaker 1: We talk all the time. Key number is everything in
16:13
Speaker 1: this game. People don't get that when you when you
16:15
Speaker 1: do gambling long term, these numbers coming to play a lot,
16:19
Speaker 1: especially key numbers. And it opened tend a half and
16:21
Speaker 1: it's sad a tend a half for months and a
16:23
Speaker 1: lot of a lot of sharks are hitting it. But
16:24
Speaker 1: they limit to you to a thousand during the off
16:26
Speaker 1: season and as soon as they opened up the betting
16:29
Speaker 1: these last two weeks, it's just dropped all way down
16:31
Speaker 1: to nine now. So the value on the number is gone.
16:34
Speaker 1: And the Chiefs week one, I mean, you can people
16:37
Speaker 1: make the joke. It's technically after a bye week. Fran
16:40
Speaker 1: you read right, because they didn't have a game the
16:41
Speaker 1: week before, and all he does is cover and win
16:44
Speaker 1: after bye weeks. So it's one of those where if
16:46
Speaker 1: you hit the number earlier, you got the ten and
16:48
Speaker 1: a half to ten. That's a good number. Other than that,
16:50
Speaker 1: you should stay away, just play the over and enjoy
16:52
Speaker 1: the first game of the year, because that's what I like.
16:54
Speaker 1: I like the over. You could do like the over
16:56
Speaker 1: in this game. The total in this game is sitting
16:58
Speaker 1: at what it's been, jumping up and down a little bit.
17:00
Speaker 1: It opened up at fifty four and it went down
17:02
Speaker 1: because Sharp's hit it down like the under, because that's
17:05
Speaker 1: gonna be the play. If you've been big money, like
17:06
Speaker 1: a lot of these guys are, they're gonna be hitting
17:08
Speaker 1: the under and they're gonna take the dog. Just because
17:10
Speaker 1: this whole week has me. All these lines are based
17:12
Speaker 1: off last year. That's why Week one a lot of
17:14
Speaker 1: guys joke. There's a lot of good value here. But
17:16
Speaker 1: the problem is you stare at these lines for five months,
17:18
Speaker 1: so you kind of kind of scare yourself out of
17:20
Speaker 1: these different teams. Right Week one screws everybody else. But
17:24
Speaker 1: I love that that right out of the gate, the
17:26
Speaker 1: Thursday night and we get to root for a lot
17:28
Speaker 1: of freaking points. And that's why, like, I think the
17:31
Speaker 1: offense is gonna have a step on the defense here
17:33
Speaker 1: early on, just because especially these offense that have been
17:36
Speaker 1: together a couple of years now, and the Chiefs are
17:38
Speaker 1: one of them, this is gonna be like riding a bike.
17:40
Speaker 1: They're gonna pick right back up. Maybe it'll be weird
17:42
Speaker 1: at first because they're coming off the Super Bowl. We
17:44
Speaker 1: saw them score fifty one points last year and three quarters.
17:47
Speaker 1: So this guy's living with the Chiefs, all right. Packers
17:50
Speaker 1: Vikings Vikings. Mine is two and a half, playing in Minnesota.
17:54
Speaker 1: This game opened at three, which would indicate that we
17:57
Speaker 1: saw some money coming in and the Packers, which makes
18:00
Speaker 1: no sense to me because I would bet the Vikings
18:04
Speaker 1: as field goal favorites are more than field goal favorites
18:08
Speaker 1: in this spot with this team against the Packers every
18:11
Speaker 1: single time, and this, honestly, in a normal year, this
18:13
Speaker 1: is an auto play at home. Under Zimmer, there's cover
18:17
Speaker 1: right at home, so you're looking at a team that
18:20
Speaker 1: you're getting less than a field goal key number at
18:22
Speaker 1: home week one. I honestly, it wouldn't be against putting
18:25
Speaker 1: it and then our contest. But the only thing gives
18:28
Speaker 1: me pause is that it's no fans, it's they're losing
18:31
Speaker 1: that You're already losing value right there. Like this number
18:33
Speaker 1: on a neutral field, you probably would have it at
18:36
Speaker 1: a pick. I mean this, Both these teams have weaknesses.
18:38
Speaker 1: Minnesota has got rid of their entire defense, so they're
18:41
Speaker 1: not their entire but all their cornerbacks. They have three
18:43
Speaker 1: new corners and they're all rookies. So that's the only
18:46
Speaker 1: thing that gives me pause. You're going against Aaron Rodgers
18:48
Speaker 1: with three rookie cornerbacks. You just completely rebutted everything I said.
18:53
Speaker 1: Made me completely doubt the idea that the Vikings, who
18:57
Speaker 1: I have to win the Super Bowl, and the Packers,
19:00
Speaker 1: who I have, is regressing aggressively off of their thirteen
19:05
Speaker 1: win season. It's not a game we should put in
19:08
Speaker 1: the contest. Yeah, let's we'll hold on that one. Oh boy,
19:11
Speaker 1: Lions and Bears, Oh my, this is terrible. This is
19:15
Speaker 1: freaking terrible. And the money, like I'm looking at the
19:18
Speaker 1: Action Network gap right now, the money has been driving
19:20
Speaker 1: this number higher, right because it opened the Lions minus
19:23
Speaker 1: ye now it's at minus three. Obviously, this is anti
19:27
Speaker 1: true bisky. Is this thinking the Lions defense has gotten better?
19:30
Speaker 1: Is this thinking they played really well until Matthew Stafford
19:33
Speaker 1: was injured? What's driving the market here? What's driving you're thinking?
19:36
Speaker 1: I think this is gonna be one of those where
19:38
Speaker 1: Stafford's coming to this year and he's kind of right
19:40
Speaker 1: and hot because he played. He didn't finish the last game,
19:43
Speaker 1: but I think he played a total of eight games.
19:45
Speaker 1: If you look at numbers, he was three four and one,
19:47
Speaker 1: but he was leading the league in yards. I think
19:49
Speaker 1: he was leading the league in touchdowns at the time
19:50
Speaker 1: he got hurt. So a lot of these people are
19:53
Speaker 1: kind of coming in with the not googly eyes, but
19:55
Speaker 1: they're they're forgetting that this team has a lot of
19:58
Speaker 1: holes on defense and they have matt for Trisha, who
20:00
Speaker 1: I don't even think he's been his career. People are
20:03
Speaker 1: really back in the lines, And in my opinion, I'll
20:07
Speaker 1: take that three with the Bears on the road because
20:09
Speaker 1: at worst I see it in a push Wow. Now
20:12
Speaker 1: for our contest, though, just because that'd be such a
20:14
Speaker 1: homer pick with you, it would be a homer pick,
20:16
Speaker 1: and I normally hate to take the Bears in this spot,
20:18
Speaker 1: but if you if we went through this right now
20:20
Speaker 1: and you told me this is one of the five
20:22
Speaker 1: best picks. And I am completely cloud in these situations.
20:25
Speaker 1: Right Like, I look at the Bears and I think
20:28
Speaker 1: I know more about them than anybody else. But I'm
20:31
Speaker 1: also looking at this team as a Mitch Drubhisky led
20:34
Speaker 1: team until Nick Foles comes in to save the day
20:37
Speaker 1: with a defense that could be amazing. But David Montgomery,
20:42
Speaker 1: who has been banged up, And so I see the
20:46
Speaker 1: three and I think, well, I can see the Bears
20:48
Speaker 1: getting blown out in this game. And that's the tough
20:50
Speaker 1: for is that we know that Mitch he has good
20:53
Speaker 1: abilities as a QB. It's something Matt Naggy to highlight them.
20:57
Speaker 1: Last year he failed Trubisky not highlighting his good attributes.
21:01
Speaker 1: He's good on to speak, he's good moving out of
21:02
Speaker 1: the pocket. And the year you guys had a good run,
21:05
Speaker 1: it was because he was letting him do those things.
21:07
Speaker 1: He was let him get outside the pocket. And supposedly
21:09
Speaker 1: Naggi is saying he's gonna be more open to that.
21:11
Speaker 1: He's gonna have him on the move more. The way
21:13
Speaker 1: your guys defense lines up, it's a really good matchup
21:16
Speaker 1: for you against the lines. But the problem with it
21:19
Speaker 1: is just that it's three, so we're kind of on
21:21
Speaker 1: to like a push number. We don't want to push
21:23
Speaker 1: in this competition, so let's let's keep it. We don't
21:25
Speaker 1: have any games that were like so far, and I
21:27
Speaker 1: can't imagine we're gonna like Jaguars plus eight against the Colts. Now,
21:34
Speaker 1: this makes me sick to my stomach. This like is
21:37
Speaker 1: such a no brainer. Take the home dog pick. Tell
21:44
Speaker 1: me why I don't want to do it now, I'm
21:45
Speaker 1: with you. I love the Jags like I. I think
21:48
Speaker 1: it's one of those where as a pro, like I was,
21:50
Speaker 1: I flew up to Vegas two weeks ago and I
21:53
Speaker 1: was just hanging out these guys, just talking before the
21:55
Speaker 1: season starts, and all of them are already laughing, saying
21:59
Speaker 1: that they're already on the game just because the Colts
22:01
Speaker 1: and indoor team going outside, so they are a fast
22:04
Speaker 1: team and they're going down to Florida in the heat,
22:07
Speaker 1: and it's one of those spots where everybody, all the money,
22:10
Speaker 1: all public is going to be on the Colts, and
22:12
Speaker 1: the Jags line just keeps getting that up here. So
22:14
Speaker 1: now it's up to plus eight when it was at
22:16
Speaker 1: plus seven. So I do love this spot. But we
22:19
Speaker 1: don't have to get ugly yet, we don't have to.
22:20
Speaker 1: We don't have to put the Jags. I'll put them
22:22
Speaker 1: on the side. Well, I can't think of any reason
22:24
Speaker 1: not to put them there. Like this is how you
22:25
Speaker 1: win the contest, right is nobody's gonna want to pick.
22:29
Speaker 1: Nobody's gonna want to pick the Jacks. And everything you
22:32
Speaker 1: just said is true except for the fear that, like
22:34
Speaker 1: the Jacks have basically given away their team, they have
22:37
Speaker 1: given away their team. But I think it's the same
22:39
Speaker 1: thing where the people said the same exact thing about
22:42
Speaker 1: Miami last year and we saw how that ended because
22:44
Speaker 1: people understand the difference between these guys that are on
22:48
Speaker 1: the Jags and say the Colts. It's very, very minor,
22:52
Speaker 1: but that's what makes the cults so great, is that
22:54
Speaker 1: the guys are just that much better. But it's it's
22:56
Speaker 1: one of those where it's Philip rivers first game, whether
22:59
Speaker 1: brand new team going against a team that they have
23:02
Speaker 1: the same quarterback and they're running in the same pretty
23:05
Speaker 1: much scheme as they did last year. So it's one
23:07
Speaker 1: of those where I can see what the public's gonna
23:09
Speaker 1: be all over the cold because Jags are grated out
23:10
Speaker 1: as the worst team this year. Plenty of people have
23:12
Speaker 1: been betting on them going to own sixteen. It's so early.
23:14
Speaker 1: We don't have to be the sharpest people in the room.
23:16
Speaker 1: We don't have to take the plus eight, but it
23:17
Speaker 1: feels like an automatic bet for me. All Right, we're
23:20
Speaker 1: putting the Jackson. Let's do it. Let's do Dolphins plus
23:24
Speaker 1: six and a half again the Patriots. It's like impossible
23:29
Speaker 1: to even say, right because and I've seen the draft.
23:32
Speaker 1: Kings got it up to six and a half. Now Dolphins,
23:34
Speaker 1: and that's that's Actually people don't think six of the
23:37
Speaker 1: key numbers actually is and a lot of times that
23:39
Speaker 1: number falls on six, but these miss extra points. That
23:41
Speaker 1: happens a lot. I do really love what the Dolphins
23:45
Speaker 1: have done special on defense. Their their secondary is incredible.
23:48
Speaker 1: But how are we gonna go against the most prepared
23:50
Speaker 1: coach in the NFL Week one? It's just like, I
23:53
Speaker 1: feel like we'll take the Dolphins and then at the
23:55
Speaker 1: end of the game they'll win. The Patriots won thirty
23:58
Speaker 1: four to seven, will be like, well, probably us all
24:00
Speaker 1: that coming, right, So it's kind of tough. It's tough
24:02
Speaker 1: to take the Dolphins here, well, it's tough to take
24:05
Speaker 1: it's tough to take the Dolphins. And listen, last year,
24:08
Speaker 1: we love the Dolphins, like I think we both felt.
24:11
Speaker 1: I felt more like a wise guy last year on
24:14
Speaker 1: the Dolphins than I did on just about any other team,
24:16
Speaker 1: because you can see by week three that they were
24:20
Speaker 1: a team that was playing really hard and just had
24:23
Speaker 1: a talent gap. And once It's magic started playing every week,
24:27
Speaker 1: you knew that, like at least at the quarterback level,
24:29
Speaker 1: they were going to be serviceable and that would keep
24:31
Speaker 1: them in games. I don't want to bet against Bill Belichick,
24:33
Speaker 1: even though they've lost so many players and like any
24:36
Speaker 1: other person looks at that roster and is not impressed.
24:39
Speaker 1: I just don't want to bet against guys who have
24:41
Speaker 1: been able to figure out schemes so many times. Even
24:43
Speaker 1: with the Dolphins team that I am actually really high on,
24:46
Speaker 1: I'm trying to win some money here, right, I'm not
24:48
Speaker 1: trying to like be a genius on like individual games,
24:52
Speaker 1: So this to me would not be part of a
24:54
Speaker 1: sort of perfect portfolio, all right. Simon Eagles six and
24:59
Speaker 1: a half point road dogs against the Washington football team.
25:03
Speaker 1: By the way, this is like exactly what we talked
25:05
Speaker 1: about during the off season, in which you've got a
25:09
Speaker 1: football team from Washington that could potentially benefit from being
25:12
Speaker 1: at home without any fans because the stadium won't be
25:16
Speaker 1: full of rhody Eagles fans. Right, A lot of people
25:19
Speaker 1: are thinking here that this kid's for real in Washington,
25:22
Speaker 1: and I am not buying it at all. I do.
25:25
Speaker 1: I am down on the Eagles this year, and it
25:27
Speaker 1: hurts me to say as an Eagles fan, But like
25:29
Speaker 1: we talked about months ago, even before the injurs even happen,
25:31
Speaker 1: they're an age team, so that my mentality was they're
25:35
Speaker 1: not gonna go and scathe and they've already been hitting
25:37
Speaker 1: two major spots the Eagles. And I know Washington has
25:39
Speaker 1: a great pass rush, but to think that Haskins and
25:43
Speaker 1: keep up with Wents in this game, it's it's really,
25:46
Speaker 1: it's not likely. And the number is sitting at six,
25:48
Speaker 1: a good number to take the Eagles at. But I'll
25:51
Speaker 1: just hold off on with you just because I don't
25:53
Speaker 1: like the Eagles OH line matched up against Washington D line.
25:57
Speaker 1: I would never ever say Haskins can't match up with
26:01
Speaker 1: Wentz Wentz to me, I'd say over the last season
26:05
Speaker 1: and a half when he's been healthy, it's not the
26:07
Speaker 1: same quarterback he was before he injured his knee that
26:09
Speaker 1: first time. Like, he's not as dynamic. He was one
26:12
Speaker 1: of those guys where if it was a third and whatever,
26:15
Speaker 1: you were all of a sudden worried about could he
26:17
Speaker 1: converted if you were betting against him. I don't get
26:20
Speaker 1: that sort of feeling of invincibility anymore. Well, let me
26:23
Speaker 1: hit you with a little number. Carson Wentz is the
26:25
Speaker 1: only player in NFL history through for four thousand yards
26:29
Speaker 1: and I have a receiver over five yards. He's one
26:31
Speaker 1: of these guys that he can make the guys around
26:33
Speaker 1: him better, and he carried that team last year and
26:36
Speaker 1: won that division. But I'm with you. People are down
26:38
Speaker 1: him because he hasn't had the numbers they did have
26:40
Speaker 1: that year. There's just been a lot of drama behind
26:42
Speaker 1: the scenes. You have teammates coming out against him, saying
26:45
Speaker 1: he's selfish and that they don't really like playing with
26:46
Speaker 1: him and things like that. I think it is a
26:49
Speaker 1: proven to me a year for him that he if
26:51
Speaker 1: he can take this team and somebody won this division
26:54
Speaker 1: when everyone's really being all in on the Cowboys. I
26:56
Speaker 1: think that would be a big statement for Carson this year.
26:59
Speaker 1: Do you have any faith in the Eagles that they
27:01
Speaker 1: could win that division? Like my numbers saying no chance,
27:05
Speaker 1: they might like but if you if you're into numbers
27:08
Speaker 1: and you just put it on paper the Cowboys, everything
27:11
Speaker 1: pops out. Cowboys biggest weakness is their secondary, but everything
27:14
Speaker 1: else on that team is just really, really fine tuned.
27:17
Speaker 1: And the Eagles already have so many holes along the
27:20
Speaker 1: offensive line. They gotta banged up our receiving corps. They
27:24
Speaker 1: don't have good linebackers, and if one of their cornerbacks
27:26
Speaker 1: goes down, their season is pretty much done. They only
27:28
Speaker 1: have two good corners, so for the season long, bed,
27:32
Speaker 1: I'm I'm in on Dallas. But in like these kind
27:35
Speaker 1: of games early on here where the Eagles were still
27:37
Speaker 1: pretty healthy, I would take the Eagles. Should we make
27:40
Speaker 1: the Eagles one of our picks right now? No, because
27:42
Speaker 1: there's other favorites I like better. Wow, that is foreshadowing.
27:47
Speaker 1: I like that? Is it? The Ravens minus seven and
27:50
Speaker 1: a half or minus eight against the Browns? I love it?
27:54
Speaker 1: What's wrong with me? Chat? Why do I love this
27:56
Speaker 1: number so much? Do you seriously I do. It's just
27:58
Speaker 1: like it might system. I got this at ten and
28:01
Speaker 1: a half, and it's just like, is there Brown's hype again? Who? Who?
28:05
Speaker 1: Who's believing in the Browns again? When we're going against hardball?
28:08
Speaker 1: Who's just running a top notch franchise over there? I
28:11
Speaker 1: mean every year the Ravens, even when Flacca wasn't good,
28:13
Speaker 1: they were still competitive in most of those games, and
28:15
Speaker 1: then last year when they had a good quarterback, they
28:17
Speaker 1: just destroyed everyone opening week. Ravens want to make a statement.
28:20
Speaker 1: Lamars heard everything this whole offseason that he's a trump artist.
28:24
Speaker 1: I like this Ravens favorite here. You're not buying like
28:27
Speaker 1: Baker sort of having an improved offense. You're not buying
28:32
Speaker 1: anything about their defense being better, like being more organized.
28:37
Speaker 1: You just said you're not in a Stefanski like this
28:40
Speaker 1: is a statement to me, this is a statement game
28:41
Speaker 1: for the Browns. Like I'm buying it, Like I like
28:44
Speaker 1: the direction they're going. Their biggest weakness last year is
28:47
Speaker 1: o line, and they've made signings to correct that, and
28:49
Speaker 1: I know they have improved their defense, but it's one
28:52
Speaker 1: of those where this is a rookie head coach going
28:55
Speaker 1: against a very very very smart and savvy established head coach.
28:59
Speaker 1: From everything I read, everyone on the Ravens is good
29:01
Speaker 1: to go. I know they lost um an offensive linement,
29:04
Speaker 1: that's a big deal, but I just liked them opening day.
29:07
Speaker 1: If you if you go through the history, the Ravens
29:09
Speaker 1: really performed well Week one at home. Well look last
29:12
Speaker 1: year they were a juggernaut from the second the game started,
29:15
Speaker 1: right and so that was what put them on the
29:17
Speaker 1: path to being one of the best teams in the
29:20
Speaker 1: a f C to Lamar Jackson winning the m v P. Essentially,
29:24
Speaker 1: what you're saying to me with this number, as big
29:27
Speaker 1: as it is, is that you see the Browns basically
29:30
Speaker 1: performing like the Dolphins a week one. It's not the
29:33
Speaker 1: day the Browns. It's another year. They're coming and hyped up.
29:36
Speaker 1: And who knows what Baker's mindset is. I know he's
29:38
Speaker 1: saying that he's gonna be more focused, He's hearing everything
29:41
Speaker 1: like that. But who would you rather back Baker madefielder
29:43
Speaker 1: a little more and this kind of spot, It's just
29:45
Speaker 1: an easy, easy choice for me. Where this this line
29:48
Speaker 1: has been bent down, it should have been. It should
29:50
Speaker 1: be at ten and it's it's it's now sit at
29:52
Speaker 1: eight minus eight. So I like the value on that line. Dude.
29:56
Speaker 1: I love taking big favorites like it's my blind spot. Honestly.
30:01
Speaker 1: I will always, like look at a number like that
30:03
Speaker 1: and think I can't take it. It's too big and
30:06
Speaker 1: I'm afraid of it, and it feels like a sucker's bet.
30:10
Speaker 1: And yet here you are a professional who does this
30:12
Speaker 1: for a living, coming in and telling me you're okay
30:14
Speaker 1: with this number because you've got a formula that has
30:17
Speaker 1: it an even higher number, and you've done this in
30:19
Speaker 1: the past, like I remember you did this with Kansas City,
30:21
Speaker 1: like in the playoffs last year. I love it. Like
30:23
Speaker 1: the people always think about sharps, just always take dogs.
30:26
Speaker 1: I think one of the hardest part has been a
30:28
Speaker 1: sharp is trying to convince people about taking the favorites
30:30
Speaker 1: because you always feel more comfortable having the dog. It's
30:33
Speaker 1: nice to know when we start the game we have
30:35
Speaker 1: the Browns, we'd be up eight points. It's one of
30:37
Speaker 1: those you get to pick and choose these spots of
30:38
Speaker 1: these favorites, and when I see value in the line,
30:41
Speaker 1: that's that's when I really go after and that's where
30:43
Speaker 1: I'm seeing with the Ravens. All Right, we got the
30:45
Speaker 1: Jets visiting the Bills plus six and a half. I
30:49
Speaker 1: have so many different opinions on this Jet team, and
30:51
Speaker 1: I feel like you're one of the guys who actually
30:53
Speaker 1: was higher on the Jets than most. Am I misremembering
30:55
Speaker 1: that you were remembering, right, But that was before they
30:58
Speaker 1: pretty much forever they're too best players, So we've done
31:01
Speaker 1: that before they got to Adams And yeah, so yeah,
31:06
Speaker 1: I'm awtome in the sense that I think Joe Douglas
31:09
Speaker 1: is trying to prep for the future now they're GM.
31:12
Speaker 1: I believe in Sam Donald and a lot of people
31:14
Speaker 1: have kind of given up on They're they're thinking they're
31:15
Speaker 1: taking for Trevor Lawrence and things like that. But I
31:18
Speaker 1: still think the weapons he has around, he's gonna be
31:20
Speaker 1: stealing a couple of games here, And like this opening game,
31:23
Speaker 1: the Bills and the Jets, they always play each other
31:25
Speaker 1: really tough, especially earlier in the year. Even one of
31:27
Speaker 1: them is terrible, the other one's good. They usually play
31:29
Speaker 1: each other really tough. The no fans for the Bills
31:32
Speaker 1: is kind of making me lean the Jets because Bills
31:35
Speaker 1: Mafia everyone knows the ABE the best fan bases in
31:37
Speaker 1: the world. So it's one of these spots here where
31:40
Speaker 1: I would I'm going Jets, and not many people are
31:43
Speaker 1: gonna be riding with me. Well, you're going Jets plus
31:47
Speaker 1: six and a half on DraftKings right now? Is it
31:50
Speaker 1: a you're going Jets. I put them in with the
31:53
Speaker 1: Jabs and the Ravens as part of my portfolio for No. No,
31:57
Speaker 1: I'm just stilling the Bettors out there. No, that's right.
32:00
Speaker 1: I'm liking the Jets in the spot, but not in
32:02
Speaker 1: if not for our contest, that's too too sharp. That's
32:05
Speaker 1: what we are giving people, not just picks for a contest,
32:08
Speaker 1: but picks for every single game on the board. Raiders
32:13
Speaker 1: minus three and a half against the Panthers. This feels
32:16
Speaker 1: pretty freaking lopsided. Yeah, it feels like a trap because
32:19
Speaker 1: I know there's they're sucking me in on the Panthers
32:22
Speaker 1: because in my mind, all Teddy Bridgewater does his cover
32:26
Speaker 1: and three and a half against Derek Carr. Guy, we
32:29
Speaker 1: saw them fourth down throw the ball out of bounce
32:31
Speaker 1: like just Derek cars be kind of come up joke
32:34
Speaker 1: as of late, and you have them traveling across Country
32:37
Speaker 1: to come play the Panthers. I like this Panthers number,
32:40
Speaker 1: but it makes me work because it does feel like
32:41
Speaker 1: a trap. I'm giving us this three and a half
32:43
Speaker 1: at Draftkiings, right, so what do we do about that? Like,
32:46
Speaker 1: you're a professional, you see a trap number, what do
32:48
Speaker 1: you have a power rated at? Well, for week one,
32:50
Speaker 1: I would take this. I had this at plus plus
32:53
Speaker 1: one for the Panthers. I pretty much had it a pick.
32:55
Speaker 1: I just moved to plus one with the no fans
32:57
Speaker 1: for the Panthers. But I'm gonna bet that number, especially
33:00
Speaker 1: like all these other websites are showing three DraftKings and
33:04
Speaker 1: bet MGM the only ones showing three and a half.
33:06
Speaker 1: So that's a good number right now, you're gonna bet it,
33:09
Speaker 1: but you're not gonna put it in the pick hum contest.
33:12
Speaker 1: We get put on the side because that's that If
33:13
Speaker 1: it stays at three and a half, that's like really
33:15
Speaker 1: really enticing just just knowing that we have that coverage,
33:18
Speaker 1: especially with Teddy Bridgewater. I do like that number just
33:22
Speaker 1: so people know, Like, picks in this contest lock at
33:26
Speaker 1: ten o'clock on Sunday morning, So like the lines move around,
33:30
Speaker 1: the names and numbers that we are choosing right now
33:32
Speaker 1: are based on where they are at on a Tuesday afternoon,
33:36
Speaker 1: but as it gets closer and will update like Simon's
33:38
Speaker 1: got a Twitter handle at Simon Hunter Tan will update
33:42
Speaker 1: throughout the day, throughout the week, and then on Sunday
33:44
Speaker 1: morning where we land, and I'll be writing about this
33:47
Speaker 1: on Action dot Action network dot com so you can
33:49
Speaker 1: keep track of what we're doing. Seahawks minus one and
33:53
Speaker 1: a half traveling to Atlanta plus one and a half.
33:57
Speaker 1: This is one of these games where a lot of
33:59
Speaker 1: the seas ranks is what Atlanta's weaknesses. They have a
34:02
Speaker 1: great secondary of the Seahawks. The strongest part of the
34:05
Speaker 1: Falcons is obviously the wide receivers. This number has been
34:07
Speaker 1: bouncing around a little bit. It was at one and
34:09
Speaker 1: went up to one and a half. Now it's up
34:11
Speaker 1: to two. In some books, I do get why people
34:13
Speaker 1: are gonna take the Falcons here. It's a short home
34:15
Speaker 1: dog and people have high hopes for the Falcons and
34:18
Speaker 1: got the Seahawks traveling across country during all that's going on.
34:22
Speaker 1: They suppose I saw an article Pete Carroll doesn't even
34:25
Speaker 1: know their travel plans yet He's still up in the
34:28
Speaker 1: air about what they're gonna exactly be doing for this
34:30
Speaker 1: for going to Atlanta, But I like the Seahawks. It's
34:33
Speaker 1: just older. Everything that you could get away with beating
34:36
Speaker 1: the Seahawks with Atlanta doesn't do good and I'm gonna back.
34:41
Speaker 1: I'm gonna back to Sea l Seahawks here. But dude,
34:43
Speaker 1: it goes against every wise guy principle. You do not
34:47
Speaker 1: bet a short road favorite. Winning on the road is
34:51
Speaker 1: so freaking hard. What obviously you like the matchup? What
34:56
Speaker 1: are you power rating this at? So I had this
34:59
Speaker 1: a Seahawks MINU three and it has moved up a
35:03
Speaker 1: little bit, so it's getting closer to that number. But
35:06
Speaker 1: you do have to break the rules sometimes when there's
35:08
Speaker 1: different tendencies of these teams, because you can't just always
35:10
Speaker 1: go by the book. Like there's plenty of times last
35:12
Speaker 1: year where I broke rules on the show and it
35:14
Speaker 1: actually worked out for us. But this one is just tricky,
35:17
Speaker 1: Like that's we can stay away from if it makes
35:19
Speaker 1: you nervous, But it doesn't really PHASEE me. That's a
35:21
Speaker 1: cross country flight for the Seahawks because it's the first
35:24
Speaker 1: game of the year. They haven't done any preseason either.
35:27
Speaker 1: So it's like their bodies are arrested. They should be
35:28
Speaker 1: ready for this. You know what, I don't ever buy
35:31
Speaker 1: that across country flight theory. I actually think it's like
35:34
Speaker 1: it's not something that it impacts betting. I'm just sort
35:38
Speaker 1: of I'm not a fan of betting road favorites. Now,
35:40
Speaker 1: if you're telling me, like, part of this is for
35:42
Speaker 1: me to learn new habits and not be sort of
35:46
Speaker 1: adhering to all the axioms that may or may not
35:48
Speaker 1: be working and looking at the real numbers. If you're
35:50
Speaker 1: telling me, like, of the sixteen fifteen games being played
35:54
Speaker 1: on Sunday or fourteen and Monday, this along with the
35:58
Speaker 1: Jags and the Ravens, is one of your best picks,
36:00
Speaker 1: then we go with it. This is not one of
36:02
Speaker 1: my best picks. Then we walk away. We walk away.
36:06
Speaker 1: Tell me the Chargers minus three and a half is
36:08
Speaker 1: not one of your best picks against the Bengals. I
36:11
Speaker 1: actually do love the Bengals. Here. I was hoping it
36:13
Speaker 1: was gonna be they're gonna start the rookie for the Chargers.
36:16
Speaker 1: But Taylor, he's a good quarterback, he's safe, he's he's
36:20
Speaker 1: a solid player. But I don't think this line is
36:22
Speaker 1: taken into account how much Darwin James is worth the
36:25
Speaker 1: Chargers defense. He's arguably a top three safety in this league,
36:29
Speaker 1: and they don't have the cornerbacks that can really keep
36:32
Speaker 1: up with this Bengals receiving corps. So people are gonna
36:35
Speaker 1: be off because they're gonna thank Bengals first game shitters
36:38
Speaker 1: for Joe Burrow, but there's really no fans there. It's
36:40
Speaker 1: gonna be like a scrimmage for him. So I do
36:42
Speaker 1: like this number with the Bengals at home opening week,
36:45
Speaker 1: But we hate the Bengals for like they're total. They're
36:48
Speaker 1: totals five and a half for season wins. We hate
36:50
Speaker 1: the Bengals. That's mainly just because of their division. I
36:53
Speaker 1: just think the Browns have improved so much. The Pittsburgh's
36:56
Speaker 1: really improved, and we all know how good Ravens are.
36:59
Speaker 1: So that's why I'm so down on them, just because
37:01
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna be able to get steal
37:02
Speaker 1: a lot of games in their division. This is outside
37:04
Speaker 1: of their division. I think they can. They match up
37:06
Speaker 1: well against the Chargers. A dude, We're heading into like
37:09
Speaker 1: the final stretch of games here, and so far the
37:13
Speaker 1: only games that we love are the Jags plus eight
37:17
Speaker 1: and the Rags Mine is eight at home against the Browns.
37:20
Speaker 1: So I'm assuming we've got three games that we love
37:23
Speaker 1: from this last little section. So let's get into all
37:29
Speaker 1: of the rest of the league games. The Chargers Bengals
37:32
Speaker 1: is one of them. We're going to avoid that the
37:34
Speaker 1: rest of the late games. The Buccaneers, Tom Brady and
37:36
Speaker 1: his first game at New Orleans as a three and
37:39
Speaker 1: a half point road dog. Everybody's gonna be on this
37:43
Speaker 1: plus three or the Buccaneers, and I think that is
37:45
Speaker 1: the side you have to take. Just from our history
37:47
Speaker 1: with the Saints, We've seen so many times I'm coming
37:50
Speaker 1: out slow to start the season, So if you wanted to,
37:53
Speaker 1: if you were about the Bucks, I would take that
37:55
Speaker 1: three and a half. But me personally, I'm gonna probably
37:58
Speaker 1: be bet in the Saints just because everyone's gonna be
38:01
Speaker 1: on the Bucks. This is one of those where the
38:03
Speaker 1: house is gonna really need the Saints. I treat like
38:06
Speaker 1: my betting myself a lot different than usual. The competition.
38:09
Speaker 1: The competition this is I completely understand why you'd want
38:12
Speaker 1: to take the three and a half of the Buccan
38:13
Speaker 1: years because this is a good spot for the book,
38:15
Speaker 1: especially Tom Brady's first game. It's just like this guy
38:18
Speaker 1: is ready to prove it to everyone this season. And
38:21
Speaker 1: this number, I think I got it at I think
38:23
Speaker 1: the books are four or four and a half At
38:24
Speaker 1: one point now it sounded three and a half. So
38:26
Speaker 1: that's what's making me nervous is we're not getting the
38:28
Speaker 1: best of the number for the books, and now we're
38:30
Speaker 1: getting to a point where the stands are gonna become
38:32
Speaker 1: the value. We're not even getting close to the best
38:34
Speaker 1: of the number. Like it's very possible by Sunday, and
38:36
Speaker 1: when it's time to lock these picks, if the stint
38:38
Speaker 1: of minus three, that feels like a no brainer. Right,
38:42
Speaker 1: That's how I feel too. Alright, forty Niners hosting the Cardinals.
38:47
Speaker 1: The forty Niners are seven point favorites against the Cardinals.
38:50
Speaker 1: I mean I loved it when it was seven and
38:52
Speaker 1: a half. I still like it because I got this
38:53
Speaker 1: game at four and a half for San fran so
38:57
Speaker 1: I had them minus four and a half. But it's
38:59
Speaker 1: tough because run key number. Now we're down to seven,
39:01
Speaker 1: so that we're risking the push options. But I still
39:03
Speaker 1: love the Cardinals here that the Forts are coming and
39:06
Speaker 1: banged up. They have one healthy cornerback who's Richard Sherman.
39:09
Speaker 1: He's old. They have one healthy receiver. It's not even
39:12
Speaker 1: that good. I think it's Pettis, So it's it's it's
39:15
Speaker 1: one of these spots where I like this early value
39:17
Speaker 1: here on the Cardinals. Yeah, it feels like one of
39:20
Speaker 1: these games where you're automatically getting sort of the extra
39:25
Speaker 1: padding on the Niners because they went to the Super
39:29
Speaker 1: Bowl last year, and the Cardinals are not going to
39:31
Speaker 1: be a team that the public thinks about is, Oh,
39:34
Speaker 1: they got Kyler Murray. Oh they got DeAndre Hopkins. Oh,
39:37
Speaker 1: their defense continues to improve. They're going to be the
39:40
Speaker 1: team traveling to play the forty Niners. People look at
39:43
Speaker 1: the matchups and you're thinking yourself, well, the forty nine
39:46
Speaker 1: are still one of the best lines in football, and
39:48
Speaker 1: they're gonna get this Cardinals team who have a couple
39:50
Speaker 1: of rookies on their offensive line and they struggled as
39:53
Speaker 1: year at pass blocking. There could be value on the
39:55
Speaker 1: forty nine, but I just think the number is still
39:57
Speaker 1: high enough where we're getting really good value on the
39:59
Speaker 1: Cardinals at seven. So we're putting the Cardinals in our
40:01
Speaker 1: in our batch of five, I'd put them in all right.
40:05
Speaker 1: They're in Cards plus seven, Rams plus three at home
40:12
Speaker 1: Sunday night against the Cowboys, and they're gonna hate me before.
40:16
Speaker 1: I love the Rams here. It's it's such a good number.
40:19
Speaker 1: I know all the hypes coming in on the Cowboys
40:21
Speaker 1: with their offense and everything like that, but this is
40:25
Speaker 1: just a really good matchup for what the Rams do well.
40:28
Speaker 1: They're really good at speedy receivers and the Cowboys just
40:32
Speaker 1: I don't know how they're gonna keep up, and I
40:33
Speaker 1: know people think they're gonna keep up with their offense.
40:35
Speaker 1: The last year on the road, the Cowboys were not good.
40:37
Speaker 1: They really struggled, and they have a new head coach.
40:40
Speaker 1: I know he's a veteran head coach, but it's his
40:42
Speaker 1: first game. And the Rams, I really do like them.
40:45
Speaker 1: Not having a great bounce back here, but I think
40:46
Speaker 1: they're gonna be better than they were last year and
40:48
Speaker 1: they'll make the playoffs this season. Listen, I don't hate
40:51
Speaker 1: that pick at all. I actually feel like it's probably
40:54
Speaker 1: the right side. This should be pick if anything, probably, like,
40:58
Speaker 1: how are you power rating this? I got the Rams
41:01
Speaker 1: minus one? Yeah, that's I mean, honestly, I was gonna
41:04
Speaker 1: say it, but didn't want to because I don't want
41:05
Speaker 1: to be embarrassed. Like, I don't know, I don't know
41:07
Speaker 1: why the I get why people are down in the
41:09
Speaker 1: Rams because what we saw last year and everything like that,
41:12
Speaker 1: But I think they're forgetting how good of that coach
41:14
Speaker 1: Trau McVeigh is and how good of offensive mind he is.
41:17
Speaker 1: So I'm excited for the Rams. You know, Hard Knocks,
41:19
Speaker 1: No one's been watching Hard Knocks this summer that because
41:22
Speaker 1: it's it's really good and you can't watch it and
41:25
Speaker 1: not love Sean McVeigh. Like he's all enthusiasm, he loves football.
41:30
Speaker 1: He seems like a fun guy to hang out with.
41:32
Speaker 1: Like it's gonna be hard to beat that team. It's
41:34
Speaker 1: gonna be hard to beat that team on a regular basis.
41:37
Speaker 1: In a very sort of uncomfortable situation where he's constantly
41:41
Speaker 1: confronting the truth, I feel like he's just sort of
41:43
Speaker 1: recognizing it in McCarthy, Mike McCarthy, the new coach of
41:46
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, he is not a guy known for confronting
41:48
Speaker 1: the truth, you know what I'm saying. Like, And so
41:51
Speaker 1: I like, I like this pick a lot. Actually, let's
41:54
Speaker 1: put it in, baby, We're in. We got Jacks plus eight.
41:57
Speaker 1: We got Ravens minus eight, we got Cardinals plus seve in.
42:00
Speaker 1: We got Rams at home plus three. We know it's
42:03
Speaker 1: coming down to two more games. We got Steelers, Giants,
42:06
Speaker 1: we got Titans, Broncos, and we've got to choose one
42:09
Speaker 1: of those games for the five Steelers minus five and
42:12
Speaker 1: a half on the road against the Giants, Titans pick
42:16
Speaker 1: against the Broncos. Let's couple them because we've got to
42:19
Speaker 1: make a choice from one of these. People already know
42:20
Speaker 1: how much I'm all in on the Pittsburgh this upcoming year.
42:23
Speaker 1: I just think there's a lot of value on if
42:25
Speaker 1: Roethlisberg and can stay healthy with that team, the pieces
42:27
Speaker 1: around him in the defense they have. I already bed
42:30
Speaker 1: this number a decent amount of time because it was
42:31
Speaker 1: at three. You went to three and a half, and
42:33
Speaker 1: now it's shut up to six minus and now it's
42:35
Speaker 1: on DraftKings on minus five and a half, so it's
42:37
Speaker 1: been bent down a little. But I grabbed this out
42:39
Speaker 1: at seven. So I still think we're getting really good
42:41
Speaker 1: value on Steelers, and people are gonna go off a
42:44
Speaker 1: lot of the numbers where Tomlin is not great Week one,
42:46
Speaker 1: I think he's five and eight against the spread. But
42:49
Speaker 1: I do love this position here where the Steelers I
42:51
Speaker 1: just think they're gonna come out and showcase what they have.
42:54
Speaker 1: And the Giants they're just still so weak at a
42:56
Speaker 1: lot of positions on defense, and I don't know if
43:00
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones can overcome with Steelers defense. So do we
43:04
Speaker 1: not even discuss Titans Broncos at pick? We love the
43:07
Speaker 1: Steelers even at minus five and a half, a five
43:10
Speaker 1: and a half road favorite. I do love the Broncos
43:14
Speaker 1: at home in September. It's like a known thing. You
43:17
Speaker 1: just take the Broncos moneyline in the first month of
43:20
Speaker 1: the season whenever they played at home. But I feel
43:22
Speaker 1: safe for taking the Steelers here because the Titans they
43:24
Speaker 1: might be for real. I mean what they did last year,
43:26
Speaker 1: that might be what they really are to finish the season.
43:29
Speaker 1: So I would stay away from that Broncos one for
43:31
Speaker 1: this competition. I would take the Steelers a right. Here's
43:33
Speaker 1: what I love about this, Simon. We have gone through
43:36
Speaker 1: every single game. We've gone through every single game. Not
43:39
Speaker 1: only have we chosen five, which I'm going to go
43:41
Speaker 1: through in a second. We've also identified hold on, I'm
43:44
Speaker 1: going to count this nine games where you feel really
43:48
Speaker 1: good about it. Nine games. Let may repeat them. They
43:50
Speaker 1: are the Jets at plus six and a half, the Panthers,
43:54
Speaker 1: I forgot what they're at, maybe plus three and ad
43:56
Speaker 1: and a half, Bengals plus three and a half, the
44:00
Speaker 1: Seahawks minus one and a half. I think you liked
44:03
Speaker 1: the Bears at minus at plus three on the road,
44:07
Speaker 1: you like the Saints if it gets to minus three
44:09
Speaker 1: as it continues to go down against the Bucks Cards
44:12
Speaker 1: at plus seven, which we're putting in our mix, the
44:14
Speaker 1: rams of plus three. The Steelers, you like them all
44:16
Speaker 1: the way to minus seven, not alone in that one.
44:19
Speaker 1: My friend, like Chris Raybon, my Action Network colleague, host
44:22
Speaker 1: of the Action Network podcast, loves the Steelers and has
44:26
Speaker 1: been pounding the Steelers. I hope we're both right, because
44:30
Speaker 1: I'm all I'm all in on them. Like I do
44:32
Speaker 1: a lot of futures most years, and this year I've
44:34
Speaker 1: probably only done one fourth to the usual amount of
44:36
Speaker 1: money I usually deal on the futures, but I would
44:39
Speaker 1: say fifty of it involved something with the Steelers. I'm
44:42
Speaker 1: just I'm really banking on a big season here from
44:44
Speaker 1: Big Ben. All right, these are our final five picks
44:47
Speaker 1: as of right now. Keep track at Simon Hunter ten,
44:51
Speaker 1: keep tracking what I write about an Action network dot com.
44:54
Speaker 1: We'll be updating it, but as of right now, picks
44:57
Speaker 1: lock on Sunday. We're starting here. This is our perfect
45:01
Speaker 1: portfolio as of right now to win one million dollars.
45:05
Speaker 1: Jack's plus eight against the Colts, Ravens Ravens minus eight
45:10
Speaker 1: against the Baker Mayfield Browns. We got the Cards plus
45:14
Speaker 1: seven on the road against the forty niners. We've got
45:18
Speaker 1: the Rams plus three at home against the Cowboys, and
45:22
Speaker 1: we got the Steelers minus five and a half. We
45:24
Speaker 1: like him up to minus seven on the road against
45:27
Speaker 1: the Giants. So we gave your loyal fans a couple
45:29
Speaker 1: of primetime games. So I'm pretty excited, dude. I love
45:33
Speaker 1: the mix here. I love that we're taking some some
45:36
Speaker 1: road favorites. I love that we're taking some home dogs. Personally,
45:39
Speaker 1: you're just breaking me out of bad habits right like that.
45:42
Speaker 1: This is what I loved, Honestly, this is what I
45:44
Speaker 1: loved about it last year. Like the reason why we
45:47
Speaker 1: came so close to cashing last year is because I
45:50
Speaker 1: would look at a board and immediately eliminate half of
45:53
Speaker 1: the games because I didn't like a big favorite, or
45:55
Speaker 1: like I didn't like someone in this situation, and I
45:58
Speaker 1: like was letting the rules dictate my decision instead of
46:02
Speaker 1: letting them sort of be a guy but not necessarily
46:04
Speaker 1: be the final arbiter, whereas now you are the final arbiter,
46:09
Speaker 1: right And what like what I what I always tell
46:11
Speaker 1: you is that what I'm doing here is I'm just
46:13
Speaker 1: trying to take it from a viewpoint of all these
46:16
Speaker 1: lines were doing. These other people are taking these same lines,
46:19
Speaker 1: so early on here we can take these easy games
46:21
Speaker 1: like a lot of these people are gonna take, Like
46:23
Speaker 1: sure a lot of the people might be taking Cleveland.
46:25
Speaker 1: And that's why we want to go on the raven side,
46:27
Speaker 1: is that every week we can get a little advantage
46:29
Speaker 1: here and go two to one to these other people.
46:31
Speaker 1: That's gonna get us closer to the money. And for
46:34
Speaker 1: the competition we're doing this year, it's the only the
46:36
Speaker 1: top fifty that get paid out. So that's why we
46:38
Speaker 1: really have to take a lot of risk, like each
46:40
Speaker 1: week that we're like we're doing now to just get
46:42
Speaker 1: get an edge on these people. Early on risk management.
46:45
Speaker 1: That's what it's all about. Brother Simon Hunter, first week
46:48
Speaker 1: on the pod for two thousand twenty. Thanks for joining.
46:52
Speaker 1: We'll talk to you next week, all right, buddy, alright.
46:54
Speaker 1: Coming up next, we are going to announce the winner
46:57
Speaker 1: of our Phrase that Pays from last week. Who was
47:00
Speaker 1: gonna win an Action Network hoodie? Plus don't forget use
47:05
Speaker 1: the phrase, Simon says in our reviews, go rate and
47:09
Speaker 1: review the podcast. Use the phrase, Simon says. The winner
47:12
Speaker 1: randomly chosen by me and producer Matt Mitchell. The one
47:16
Speaker 1: who tickles us the most will get a free Action
47:20
Speaker 1: Network hoodie. But the winner for this week's Action Network
47:24
Speaker 1: could He is Tone Lantern. Tone Lantern is the winner
47:29
Speaker 1: of this week's Action Network couldie. And here's what we
47:32
Speaker 1: loved about his review. Here's what producer Matt Mitchell and
47:36
Speaker 1: I loved about his review is that he is a multitasker.
47:40
Speaker 1: The dynamic duo of Ray Bond with a D and
47:44
Speaker 1: Stucky deliver a great podcast. Sorry if I spelled the
47:47
Speaker 1: names wrong. I wrote this while doing leg lifts. The
47:51
Speaker 1: guy is getting smarter and getting stronger at the same time.
47:54
Speaker 1: That is why we love Tone Lantern. And that is
47:56
Speaker 1: why he is the proud owner of a new action network,
48:01
Speaker 1: Pretty Don't skip the podcast Don't skip lu Day. This
48:05
Speaker 1: has been the favorites from the Action Network downloaded from iTunes,
48:09
Speaker 1: from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. I am Chad
48:12
Speaker 1: Nolan for Simon Hunter until next week when you get
48:17
Speaker 1: your five favorite fix I love you, h