Latest / Toadstool Sports / Tuesday BEST BETS | I Don't See Much Here | MLB & WNBA | 8/11/26

Transcript

Tuesday BEST BETS | I Don't See Much Here | MLB & WNBA | 8/11/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chicks.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt.
• 0:23
  Speaker 3: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head. Now
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: you stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Your name still mean something? Ne somebody for show.
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: Put the glass down, baby, look at me. No hold on,
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: hold on, nothing nice, no.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on and me for.
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: That, but it'll get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: Now, what's up ever, buddy, It's Toad Back with you
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: with Toadstool Sports for Tuesday, August eleventh. We went to
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: and zero on the show yesterday. Not too bad. Obviously,
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: it was as good as possible. Basically we won with
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: the Mets. Mets scored five runs of the first inning,
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: so we had the Mets verse five. I'm like, okay, yeah,
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: we're gonna win that one. And then yeah it got
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: a little close. Christian Scott not great and holding onto
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: that lead. They were able to do it, but I
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: think it was seven to five at the end of
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: the first five like they He threw two runs right
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: back to the Braves. Right after that, I'm like, come on, man,
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: you gotta be kidding me. But then the Mets padded it.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: It was six to two. I'm like, yeah, we're gonna
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: win this, but it was. It was too close, So
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: Bryce Elders sucked. We got that right. Scott was not
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: as good as I thought he would be, but he
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: still was better than Elders. That's what we needed. So
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: there were a lot of ways that could happen. The
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: Mets were correct. The Mets won the full game as well,
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: if you played it that way. Milwaukee San Diego under
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: that didn't look great. Early. It looked like Casey Miiz,
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: I'm like, what is going on with this guy? Man?
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: Like he gave up two runs i think in the
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: second inning or something. I'm like, you gotta be kidding me.
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: It was a two to one game in the second inning,
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: I think, and then San Diego actually retook the lead
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: almost right away and it was three to two, probably
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: in the fourth or fifth inning, and I'm like, yeah,
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: we're not gonna win this one. But we did. There
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: were no more and in the rest of the game.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: The bullpens were really good in the game. Myes settled
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: down and wound up having a nice start. He had
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: one bad inning and other than that he was good
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: on the Milwaukee side. Yeah, it was good enough from
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: who started Henderson right. Yeah, Henderson was pretty good in
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: the game. He usually is, so it's still won. Yeah,
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: we got the under wound up being a five run
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: game to five run total in that one for the
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: full game. So yeah, two and zero. I'm happy about it.
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: We'll keep it going. Today. I felt like I was
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: seeing a lot right yesterday, and I think I got
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: a lot of those leans correct yesterday in baseball and
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: in WNBA. Really today, I'm not seeing it today. I
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: have one play. This is not a good baseball board.
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: Sometimes Mondays are just better for me because there are
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: different situations that I look for with teams starting new
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: series and travel spots, and that helps me out. And
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: I think it helps me out when there's a shorter
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: board because I can kind of focus more. That's why
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: I missed Thursday night of football. Man. I got every
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: Thursday Night game on the spread correct in the NFL
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: up through the first whatever it was, like thirteen weeks
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: or whatever. I only had one of them wrong. Whatever
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: it was, I don't know it helps me when I
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: just focus on one game and like really try to
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: figure it out. Don't have time to do that for
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: every single game. And there's a lot on the board, though, Garrett,
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: what's up? Braves can't beat the Mets. The Mets they're
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: playing with some effort right now, they're playing, they're hot
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: right now, they're scoring runs right now. Brezelder sucks though,
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: But I you probably don't like the Braves pitching matchup
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: today either, and if I were you, I also wouldn't.
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: All right, Cleveland Detroit is the first game up, and
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: this is literally my only play of the day, So
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: this is gonna be a great show where you guys
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: can get my one plane leave and that's probably what's
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: gonna happen. I'm gonna break down the entire rest of
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: the board though and give out some opinions or whatever.
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: But it is what it is, man, It's just the
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: way this sets up. Third day in a row. I
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: think I have a game, I have a play in
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: the first game that's on the board, and this time
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: I've literally nothing else. All right, serybody can just hang
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: around and listen to me talk afterwards, maybe try to
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: confirm or deny their opinions on all these other ones.
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: We're gonna take Cleveland in baseball here on the money line,
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: I think we can go with the bullpens here. You
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: definitely could argue Detroit has the better bullpen, but because
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: this is a bullpen game for Detroit, the bullpen is
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: gonna be in this game for the whole game for Detroit.
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: So bullpen versus bullpen, I think doesn't really matter as much.
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: And a set up like this, so we're just gonna
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: take Cleveland full game, if you want to take it
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: first five. I don't really disagree with that either. Neither
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: team played yesterday. We had a lot of teams that
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: were off yesterday. First thing I noticed is it's a
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: bad spot for Detroit because they're returning home from a
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: road trip where they played the entire three series road
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: trip on the Pacific Coast, so they're having to travel
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: across moultiple time zones. Plus it could be a distracted
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: spot getting back to home life. Detroit is playing well.
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: Got to give them credit. They had a really good
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: road trip. They're right there. They're still trying to make
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: the playoffs. They're in the wildcard race right now. Because
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: the Al sucks. They could still win their division as well.
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: Cleveland has fallen to a half game behind them, though
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: I think Cleveland might show up with more motivation here
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: in Cleveland is going to be the team that has
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: the better pitching in this game, and you could definitely
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: debate they have the better pitching in general as well.
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: So that's what we got going on here. Detroit's not
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: necessarily going to overlook Cleveland here, but it's a tough spot,
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: tough travel spot, whereas Cleveland, I think the spot is
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: a lot better for them here. They're coming in from
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: a bad series against the White Sox, also had yesterday
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: off travel way easier just to go for Chicago to
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: Detroit though, and in the middle of a road trip,
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: so they should remain focused here. Cleveland's bullpen has kind
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: of fallen off, though they're twentieth right now. They're not
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: that bad though, I think they're like a top half
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: bullpen in my opinion. Detroit is better in fourteenth, but again,
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: their bullpen is going to be in this entire game,
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: so I'm still gonna go full game with this. Yes,
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: Detroit does have the better offense. They're ranked eleventh. Cleveland
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: is terrible. At twenty ninth. But this is about the
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: spot and it's about the pitching, in my opinion, so
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: that's what we're going with here. I think we're also
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: fading the public here, so I think the market read
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: also as good on this. Detroit they're a good home team,
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: but they have not been as good recently at home
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: as they were early in the season, so their home
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: record is kind of balanced out, and we're gonna back
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: ten or Biby here. I think Biby's pretty good man.
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: He's got a three point eight five ERA one point
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: one to three whip. He's been a little bit better
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: on the road in some ways as well. Three point
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: seven to five roadyra He's similar home and away, though
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: he's pitched pretty well recently. Had a lot of strikeouts
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: last time out against the Mets, even though he allowed
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: three home runs, which is to me that's kind of
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: fluky because he hadn't allowed any in the previous four
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: star art so I'm willing to kind of give him
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: a pass for that. Like I don't think he's out
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: of form. He was striking a ton of guys out
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: there and not walking anybody, so his command looks like
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: it is on point right now. He's got a low
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: hit rate on the season. Yeah, he's struggled a bit
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: with the home runs on the season, that's true, but
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: he had gotten that home run rate down recently. His
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: walk rates fine, his strikeout rate is not great. He's
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: just not really a strikeout pitcher, so I guess that's
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: kind of the one knock on him. But he's a
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: veteran at this point. He's had a decent career so far.
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: He's going up against Detroit, and while Detroit is very
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: familiar with him, he's sort of had the upper hand
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: against him in one hundred and fifty eight at bats.
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, these are kind of mediocre numbers. I know,
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: two fifty three average seven to ten ops, but it's
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: not bad. Below that seven to fifty ops threshold, thirty
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: two to seventeen strike out walker issues not very good. Again,
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: he doesn't really strike that many guys out, But I
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: think he has the upper hand here over a bullpen
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: game for Detroit, which is gonna be opened by Drew Anderson,
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: who's I think a mediocre pittrol though he did have
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: a good opening last time he opened against Seattle, but
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: that was in Seattle very Picture Friendly Park. He shut
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: them out for three and two thirds innings. And yes,
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: I know Cleveland is also a bad offense just like Seattle,
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is probably worse. But Anderson, I mean, he didn't
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: strike anybody out in that one. Like he's not gonna
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: come in and like dominate, you know what I mean,
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: Like it is possible that he gives something up and
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: then he's gonna give away to the bullpen. While very
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: likely Tanner Biby is still gonna be in this game.
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: So let's take Cleveland here in this one, seventy percent
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: of tickets, fifty eight percent of the cash on Detroit.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: Detroit is a slight favorite here. Yeah, I think I have.
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: I think I said everything I need to say on this.
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: The money is coming in on the over at eight
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: as well, so I don't have a real good opinion
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: on the total there over. I don't know about the
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: over really. When teams have the day off the prior
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: day and you got like that means get rested bullpens,
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: so the bullpens will be decent. And yes, I know
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: that that'll help Detroit a little bit that the bullpen
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: is rested coming into this game. But I still think
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: it's a better spot for Cleveland having an actual starter here,
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: plus the return home spot is bad for Detroit. So
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: but yeah, this game seems a little bit more like
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: an under than an over to me. But I don't
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: really have a good opinion on that. I don't think
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: I'm seeing the baseball board well today, man. But that
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: is my only play Cleveland on the money line. Some
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: of the other games I sort of liked thish Pittsburgh
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: Miami one, This definitely was in consideration for me. I
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: almost put this one on my card. These teams are
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: off yesterday as well, which means hitting could cool off
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: a little bit. It means the bullpens get a rest,
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: so I was also looking at the under in this game,
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: but it mostly had to do with the starting pitching.
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: And I don't think I trust the Pirates bullpen enough
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: even if they are rested, So I think i'd be
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: looking at a first five under here, And if you're
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: doing that, you're gonna need to take like a three
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: or three and a half, and I just don't want
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: to do that. Miami did win their last two games
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: against the Angels. They're staying at home here, not impressive
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: being in the Angels. But we'll see Miami and Pittsburgh.
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: They're both kind of they're in like dire straits right
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: now if they want to try to make the playoffs.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: Like these teams are in desperation mode. Miami has the
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: better bullpen here. They're number five. I don't think they're
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: quite that good, but they're better than Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: twenty third arranged by whip, of course, and I arrange
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: offenses by ops. Pittsburgh is fourth in offense and Miami
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: is tenth. So yeah, Pittsburgh is the better offense here.
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: They're not quite as good on the road though, and
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: Miami plays in a pitcher friendly ballpark. The pitching matchup
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: here to me, just right away, it looks like it
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: should be an under. But what are we gonna do
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: with Paul skeens Man? Is he actually gonna be good again?
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: Or is he not? That's the question. Skiens He's having
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: an offseason, man. I don't know how else to put it.
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: He's got a three point nine six ra now tho
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: his whip is still good at one point one two,
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: although usually with him you get a whip that's probably
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: even below one. So he's not putting up elite numbers
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: right now, even if he is still good, he's been
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: bad on the road though, four point sixty three roady
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: ra So again it's like, can we really back him
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: right now? I don't know, Man and Skeins. I mean,
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: the inning count is also a thing, but he went
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: to one hundred and eighty seven to two thirds innings
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: last year and his numbers were awesome for the whole season,
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: So the innings count I don't think is a problem
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: for him. Really. My problem with him is he's not
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: pitching well right now, and he's not good on the
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: road right now either. So those are really my issues
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: with trying to back like an under here, which is
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: my leen in this game is the under, but you're
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: gonna need Skeens to actually under first five is actually
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: my lean here. But you're gonna need Schens to be
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: basically lights out here, and I don't know if he
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: will be. But anyway, his I don't think his innings
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: pitch count is really a problem him here. He's had
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: way too many walks recently, though his last three starts
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: have all been pretty bad, two of them on the road.
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: Though he had a lot of strikeouts, still but his
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: walk rate's gone up. He's allowing more runs than he
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: usually does. I mean, this isn't really good. His hit
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: rate is still fine on the season, his walk rate
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: is still fine. Strike out rate is still pretty high,
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: really high really, But yeah, there's something going on with
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: him right now. For sure, numbers against Miami, he's been
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: good in thirty six at bat seventeen strikeouts, two walks.
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: That's a really good ratio right there. He strikes a
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: ton of them out one sixty seven average five forty
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: four ohps. So this looks like it is a fine
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: matchup for him. I still think he's gonna bounce back
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: here again. Maybe it happens here. It looks like a
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: decent matchup for him, decent pitching stadium here. Uri Perez
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: is pitching for Miami, and I like him as well.
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: I think he's good three point six one one point
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: one to three whip. I think he's typically a bit
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: better at home, and his ERA is better at home
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: this year three point twenty nine opponent batting average is
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: actually a little bit worse at home, but his splits
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: aren't really that significant. He seems to be pitching well
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: right now, even though he gave up some runs last
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: time out against Atlanta. He's still striking out a lot
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: of guys. He's been good over the past month plus.
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: At this point, he's got a low hit rate on
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: the season. His walks are a little bit of an issue.
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: Strike got rate is high, but yeah, with him, it's
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: about the command. He walks too many guys to some degree,
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: but he's kind of fixed that this year to some extent.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: He's very unhittable as well. Perez against Pittsburgh has been
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: fairly good, although the only five guys who have faced
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: him twelve at bats one extra base hitt in here
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: is a trip off Reynolds two fifty average six to
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: sixty seven ops. So again, I think the under is
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: still the way to look in this game. There are
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: concerns with it, though the money seems to agree. Seventy
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: one percent of the tickets sixty percent of the cash
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: on the over total is very low here though it's
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: Evan cheetering on six and a half at some places,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: so there's not a lot of leeway here. I mean,
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: if you wanted to go full game because the bullpen's arrested,
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: you could do that. Although Pittsburgh's bullpen is a little
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: bit concerning, but you do get that key number seven
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: if you go full game, and if you go first
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: five with it, yeah, you're looking at a three and
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: a half year in the first five that I think
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: that still might be the best lean though, is to
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: go first five under the three and a half there,
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: But again, I realize there's not a lot of leeway there,
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: and there is the potential that both pitchers can pitch
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: deep into this game. You got the rest of bullpens,
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: So I'm not gonna disagree with the under in the
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: full game either, and I think one of those options
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: is probably the way to play that. Livvy Donn is
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: distracting Paul Skins, Yeah, probably she might be more famous
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: to the Paul Skins Cubs Washington. I kind of like
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: this game too. I just don't like the price because
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: I like the Cubs here, but they seem like they're
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: too expensive and the market read doesn't seem good to me,
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: even though I know a lot of times I'll fade
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: the market read for sure, but I'm not gonna do
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: it here. But I think the Cubs should win this.
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: Washington's won three in a row, but they swept the Reds.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, who cares the red suck? The Cubs are
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: definitely better than the Reds. So Washington's gonna have to
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: step up in class to face the Cubs here and now.
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: Both teams I believe were off yesterday. Cubs are coming
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: in for playing Kansas City. Cubs are kind of hot
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: right now. Man. People not really talking about it, but
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: they've won i think six of their last seven games.
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: They swept the Dodgers in there and then won a
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: makeup game against the Blue Jays, and then they won their
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: last years against the Royals two out of three. Cubs
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: coming into this might be the more motivated team at
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: this point too, because Washington kind of became sellers at
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: the trade deadline, the Cubs were buyers. Cubs are going
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: for it this year, and I think the Cubs have
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: the better matchup really throughout this game. Cubs have the
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: best bullpen, and even though they've kind of struggled recently,
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: they're back up to twelveth and their eras back below four,
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: so they're doing alright right now. Washington not a good
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: bullpen at twenty six with an ERA about a run higher.
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: So the Cubs have the better bullpen both offenses are good.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: Washington is tied in first with the Dodgers Cubs right
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: behind them at third. You could make the argument the
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: Cubs have the better offense here against Washington. Washington's not
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: quite as good offensively at home for whatever reason. But
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: I think the started pitching is obviously an advantage to
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: the Cubs. Chowteyam Andaga is pitching for them. He's turned
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: his season back around. He's been pitching better again recently.
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: He's a good pitcher overall. Three point six ERA, one
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: point zero nine WHIP. He's actually better on the road
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: three point twenty four roady ra He's been good over
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: the past like more than a month at this point. Obviously,
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: he definitely turned this thing around. He's allowed two or
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: fewer earned runs in every start going all the way
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: back into late June. He's got a low hit rate,
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: he doesn't really walk many guys. His strikeout rate is okay.
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: His problem is the home runs. That's really what's kind
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: of knocked his ERA up higher than it really should be.
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: The home run ball has been an issue for him.
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: He is a fly ball pitcher, and some of that
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: might have to do with Wrigley, Like windy games and
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: stuff like that. I don't know man, but Imanaga I
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: think he's a good pitcher. I think he should do
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: well here against Washington, even though this stadium is not his.
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: Washington plays a lot of offensive games at home, although
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: that's kind of the style that Washington plays like. They
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: have a good offense and terrible pitching, so it's not
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: necessarily the stadium here. I think their stadium is just
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: kind of a middle of the road as far as
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: how offensive it is offensive, I'm offended by it. Yes
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: Ima Naga has forty seven at bats against Washington. He
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: selled him to a two to fifty five average, six
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: sixty nine oh ps, twelve to two strikeout walk ratio.
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: So yeah, he does pretty well against Washington, so I
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: think he should be fine here against Jake Irvin, who
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: is definitely the lesser of the two pitchers here. Irvin
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: just came back from injury not too long ago. His
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: season hasn't been very good though. Five point three seventy RA,
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: one point twenty nine whip. That whip is not too bad.
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: It does indicate his RA should be a little bit better,
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: but he's also awful at home. Seven point zh four
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: homi Ira this year and then opponent of batting average
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: almost two hundred points higher than it is on the
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: road three point thirty at home. Yeah, that's not good
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: at all. He pitched all right last time out against Philadelphia.
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: I think I don't remember. I know. I think I
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: gave out a play on him in the previous game
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: against Atlanta and he blew it in the fifth inning
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: in that one. Those were his two starts since coming
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: back from injury. Really nothing spectacular, not really striking many
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: guys out in those starts. Didn't last that long in
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: the starts, gave up too many runs. He wasn't that
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: hit a ball, So at least there's that. But his
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: command looks like it might be a little bit off
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: right now. He's got a reasonably low hit rate on
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: the season. His walk rate is kind of mediocre, not great.
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: His strike gout rate right at one per inning, which
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: is fine. Numbers against the Cubs. The Cubs, yeah, they've
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: been able to get to them in one hundred and
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: five at bats to sixty seven average, but the OPS
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: is pretty high eight twenty six, so they've hit him
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: for power. Six home runs from six different batters twenty
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: three to ten strike at walk ratio, so that's not
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: a good ratio either. So yeah, I think the Cubs
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: are the right side here. They're public though ninety one
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: percent of the tickets. That worries me a little bit.
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: Ninety five percent of the cash could be a situation
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: where public and professional money are all on that side.
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: They did drop for minus one seventy down to about
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: minus one sixty, so some money initially did come in
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: on Washington. Again, like I said, I think the price
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: is just not really there to make this play. But
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: I think if I did play this game, I'd probably
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: have to make it like a minus one run line
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: with the Cubs, and then at least they're the road teams,
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: so at least they'll bat in the ninth inning guaranteed.
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I think the Cubs should win, and that
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: is that seems to be the way to play this game.
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: The total's high at nine and the money's coming in
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: on the over. I don't have a good opinion on that.
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: Although if the money's back in the over and you
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: think the Cubs are gonna win, you could take the
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: Cubs to go over their team total and just take
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: the Cubs to beat up Irvin plus the Washington bullpen,
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: which I think they will get there with that one
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: of them. You need them to probably score six runs
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: if you want to do that, which is a little
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: high for sure. And then if you do that, you're
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: taking one of the advantages you have out of play though,
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: which is ima Naga should have an advantage here in
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: this game. Plus the bullpen also does. So Yeah, I think,
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: like I'm making your own minus one run line is
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: probably the way to play that with the Cubs there,
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out all right?
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: Seattle and the Yankees on TBS. These teams were also
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: off yesterday. The Yankees are staying at home off of
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: beating the Braves in the weekend series. There Seattle's having
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: to travel cross but they're going east and it is
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: the start of a road trip with a day off,
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: and they're playing poorly at home, so it might be
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: a good thing that they're just leaving home. Going east
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: is easier than going west, man, because it's not gonna
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: mess with your biological clock. You're like you're playing if anything,
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: you're you're playing a game that's earlier. It's kind of
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: like a late afternoon game for you, and baseball teams
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: do that all the time, so it's a lot easier
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: to do that. As I keep saying, so, I think
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: the situation is decent for Seattle. Seattle does have the
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: better starting pitcher here. The problem is his home road
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: splits are horrible for pitching on the road, which is
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: where he is here. So I don't really know if
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: I could back Woo here in this one. Seattle has
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: a good bullpen, although the Yankees also do. Yankees are
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: ranked fourth, they have the second best bullpen the ra
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: Seattle is not bad though, even though Seattle's ranked sixteenth,
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: I think their bullpen is one of the better ones.
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: The Yankees are better, but both bullpens are rested here.
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: Both bullpens are good. Yankees' offense kind of struggled recently
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: the teenth, although the Seattle offense has been awful. They're
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: twenty eighth, so both offense is kind of struggling right now.
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: We have two good bultpens, and I think we have
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: capable starting pitchers here too. So if I was gonna
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: play this game, this game almost made the cut for
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: me as well. I think this one is actually better
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: than the ones I just talked about. So I like
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: the under full game in this one, and if I
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: was going to add another play, it would be this one.
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: And then I would say, like all these games that
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: are this is a very front loaded show man. I apologize,
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: but that's just the way that it is. So I
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: gave you a play with Cleveland in the first game.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: I like the under in Pittsburgh Miami or under first five.
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: Maybe I like Chicago the Cubs, but I think Seattle
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: Yankees under the total I think is probably my second
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: favorite look here on the board today. Then I would
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: probably say the Cubs, then the Pittsburgh Miami under, and
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: I'll give out a couple other opinions that I think
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: are reasonable as well, but some of those just have
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: to do with the price not being good at all.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: The price I think is actually good on this total though,
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: in the Seattle and Yankees game here. As far as
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: he started pitching, Brian wu pitching for Seattle, I like him.
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: I think he's good. I think he's better than his
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: four point three to one era suggests. He's been really
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: good in his other seasons that he's had in the majors.
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: One point one two whip for him, although his whip
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: is usually lower than that. Like, he's usually an elite
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: pitcher pretty much, and his numbers are not quite elite.
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: This year. He's been really really good at home in
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: Seattle's pitching from the part, but he's been horrific on
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: the road, and I don't understand why. Like usually, yeah,
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: he's usually better at home, for sure, Like there are
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: obvious reasons for that, but he's usually not. His splits
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: are never this extreme right like you usually see. Oh,
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: he has like a two something ERA at home, and
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: maybe his Roady Ray is like three something like that,
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: But six point seven to one Roady Ira this year,
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on with him and a
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: three hundred opponent batting average on the road. So he's
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: like unbackable on the road. That's the problem I have
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: with this, Like I like the under and I think
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: Wu is a good pitcher, but he's been awful on
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: the road, and what can you do? Like his last
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: couple of road starts were not good against Texas, which
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: is kind of a red flag, and then against the Dodgers.
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: I actually kind of think he got unlucky in that one.
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: Someone wasn't really as bad as it looked his last like, really,
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: his road starts have all been bad recently, Like you
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: have to go all the way back to like May
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: to find a road start that was actually good, like
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: a quality start. So yeah, that's not good, but his
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: overall numbers are still good. That's just how good of
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: a pitchery is. He can be this bad on the
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: road and still have really good overall numbers. Low hit rate,
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: he doesn't really walk anybody. His strikeout rate is right
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: at one per inning basically, which is fine. That's about
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: what he usually does. His numbers against the Yankees are
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: actually good. In forty five at bats two hundred average,
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: allowed five h six oh ps nine to one strike
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio, So that looks good. The thing, the
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: only things that don't look good are the fact that
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: he's really really bad on the road and it's been
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: consistent throughout the season, and it's really difficult to explain.
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: Though I don't like it. I don't And he is
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: the better pitcher here over Ryan Weathers. Brian and Ryan
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: w here going at it in this game. But Weathers
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: is not bad either. He's got a three point seven
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: to ninety RA one point two to whip. He's a
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: little bit worse at home four point one to one
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: homye Ra. So the home road splits are actually against
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: both starters here, which is not a great signe if
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: you're trying to play the under. Weathers has been good.
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: His last three starts have all been good. He's only
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: allowed one run across that stretch there, two of those
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: on the road, and only one of them really against
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: a good offense, really the White Sox. But Weathers has
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: been alright. He's got a pretty low hit rate here.
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: Is walk rate is decent, strike got rad is good.
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: It's above one per inning by quite a bit. Weather's
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: facing a pretty weak Seattle line up here, and he's
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: been good against them in the past since twenty seven
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: two twenty two average five forty five ops allowed ten
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: to four strike a walk ratio. So I kind of
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: boil it down to offenses might be cooled off. The
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: offenses haven't been that good recently anyway, or in Seattle's case,
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: for the whole season, they haven't been. Both bullpens are good.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: Both bullpens a arrested because the teams didn't play yesterday,
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: and just looking at the matchup here, both starters should
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: do well here. I like the under. I just I
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: can't do it, man, because the home roads was just
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: are not good enough. Woo's especially are just horrible. I
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: don't know what's going on with that, but I like
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: the under in this game. The money's backing the over.
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: The totals at eight, which seems pretty reasonable to me, man,
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: even though I know it's the Bronx, it's a hit
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: or friendly ballpark here, whatever, But yeah, I mean eight
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: seems like pretty high for this pitching matchup here. But
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: fifty four percent of takes ninety percent of the cash
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: on the over. I don't know, man, I don't like
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: that market, but I still like the under in this game. Personally, Uh,
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: seventy nine percent of the tickets are on the Yankees,
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: so the Yankees are public seventy four percent of the
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: cash on the Mariners, though, and I could see the
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: argument for that, right, Like, the Yankees already dropped from
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: minus one thirty six down to about minus one twenty
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: something here, so some real money has come in on Seattle,
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: and the argument for it obviously has got to be
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: wo is overall the better picture here, Like he's like
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: a borderline elite pitcher, but it's just his road numbers
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: are just massively concerning here. But if you just look
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: at you know, if you zoom out here, WO is
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: definitely better than Weathers And I think that's really kind
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: of what's going on here. And I think if you
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: take Seattle, I think you should actually take them first five.
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: You'll probably still get those. You might have to lay
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: a favorite price. Actually, if you do that, I think
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: you'll probably still get them as an underdog there. That's
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: probably what I would do. If I was going to
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: play the side at all, I might lean Seattle first five.
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: I think the Yankees do have a bullpen edge here,
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I think the under makes more sense than
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: anything else in that game, and I think it makes
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: enough sense. And it's my second strongest opinion on the
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: board here. Boston and Toronto. This is just the Red Sox.
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: Their offense is just complete ass. Again, I don't know
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: what else to tell you. The Red Sox couldn't score
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: against tie On plus Simeon Woods Richardson yesterday. Who Yes,
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: Simeon Woods Richardson is on Toronto. Now the Red Sox
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: couldn't score against that combination? Are you fucking kidding me?
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: And then the only run they scored. Toronto tried to
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: screw them out of the run because if you saw
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: it happen, I think it was a sackfly. But the
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: scoreboard said that there were two outs when there was
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: actually one out, so it was valid it was a sackfly.
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: And then the Red Sox complained about it because the
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: umpires were like, no, that's the third out, but the
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: Red Sox were like, uh yeah, no, no, it's that
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: was the second out in fact, and that was correct.
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: It was the second out. And it took like a
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: fifteen minute like umpire powwow, where they had to get
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: together and realize the scoreboard was fucked up, and then
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: they were like, okay, yes, the Red Sox do get
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: the run. That was the only run they got in
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: the game. You'll say this is not good and you're
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: gonna take this Red Sox offense and put them up
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: against Dylan Cease. Now, yeah, the Red Sox are fucked.
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox are not winning this game. There's no way.
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox have lost three games in a row
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: is a favorite. Now now they're gonna be an underdog
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: because they have to face Dylan Cease and it's even
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: worse because the Red Sox have their worst starting pitcher
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: on the mound here, and it's not even close. He's
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: by farther. He's there. The Red Sox have a good
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: starting pitching rotation even without Crochet. It's sand of all today.
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: This guy shouldn't even be in the starting rotation. I mean,
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: this guy is horrible, horrible, Like there's a massive drop
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: off between all the other Red Sox starters and this guy. So, yeah,
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: you know what I think about this game. The Red
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: Sox are not winning this game. I would be shocked
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: if they won this game. It's not gonna happen. Although
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox do have the better ball so I
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: guess if Sandoval somehow pitches okay here, I mean he could,
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: I guess because Toronto's offense blows. So if the Red
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: Sox are kind of hanging around in a low scoring
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: game here, the bullpen, I guess could get them to
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: win here. They have the better bullpen. The Red Sox
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: only use one guy out of the bullpen yesterday Toronto
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: used three, including their clothes or Vireland. So the Red
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: Sox do have a bullpen ed here. They're number one
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: in bullpen and both era and whip. Toronto's not bad
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: at there's seventeenth, but their numbers are pretty good. But
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: obviously the Red Sox have the better bullpen. Red Sox
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: have the better offense as well. They're fourteenth. They've been
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: better recently up until very recently when they've fallen off
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: again over the last few games. Toronto is awful though
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: they're dead last offensively, so they don't really have an
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: offensive vege against anybody. But like I said, Sandoval is
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: getting the start for the Red Sox. Patrick Sandovan, you
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: might think, oh, yeah, he's not bad three point three eight.
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox have won all five of his starts. Yeah,
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: but come on, man, look at his career numbers. They're
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: not good and he's got a one point six to
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: seven whip. Pier then indicates that his ERA should be
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: like in the fives or maybe even worse than that.
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: This guy sucks. He's not good at all. And yes,
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: I know his era is actually better on the road
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: two point eight nine, but the rest of the numbers
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: don't suggest it should be anything near that. He gives
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: up too many hits, he gives up too many walks.
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: He is not good, and he actually did face Toronto
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: back in that previous series in late July, and he
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: shut them out for four and two thirds innings, but
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: he was skating around it. Man. He puts seven guys
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: on base somehow, allowed no runs. Toronto's offense isn't good,
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: that's true, But you can't keep doing this and not
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: allowing anything. You know, He's got a high hit rate,
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: pretty high walk rate. His strike out rate is decent,
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: so I'll give him that. His strike out rate is
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: actually good, so I will give him that. But he's
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: jamming the bases with runners here. Yeah, it's not good.
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: Like he's only a lot more than Tour in runs once,
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: but I don't care. Man, He's not going deep into games. Although, yes,
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: the Red sucks bullpen can definitely come in and potentially
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: save the day here, but I don't think Sandoval is
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: gonna be that good. However, he does have decent numbers
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: against Toronto and fifty five at bats two fifty five average,
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: six ZHO, eight ops allowed, nine to five StrEG a
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is not good though, but yes, if he's
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: gonna do okay against somebody, you know, I mean, he
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: does draw one of the worst offenses in baseball here,
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: and it's an offense that he's done well against in
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: the past, so at least that is a positive for him.
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: But dynan't Cease is pitching for Toronto. Cease is elite man.
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: Like last year, his numbers actually were pretty bad really
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: for his standards with the Padres. This year not bad
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: at all, even though his walk rate is still an issue.
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: He's just been so dominant otherwise it doesn't even really matter.
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: Two point two eighty one point zero four whip. I'm
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: certain that he's in the Cy Young discussion. I don't
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: know where his odds are right now. He's not gonna
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: get it though, because Toronto doesn't win games but two
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: point eight sixty r eight at home, so he is
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: actually worse at home, although he's still good either way.
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: He's been racking up a ton of strikeouts as usual,
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: going a little bit deeper into some of these recent games.
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: A lot of times he throws too many pitches to
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: go deep into games, but he's got like an elite
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: hit rate. He is very unhittable. He walks too many
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: guys though his walk rate is actually kind of bad,
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: and his strike out rate is also elite so he's
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: extremely hard to hit. He blows batters away, but he's
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: also out of control. But again he's his stuff is
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: so good that his command numbers don't even really matter
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: that much against the Red Sox. Yes, he's been good
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: in ninety two at bats two oh seven average, allowed
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: six thirty nine ohps, thirty to eleven strike out walk races.
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: So again, the walk rate is kind of an issue here,
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: but he's a pretty dominant pitcher man the Red Sox
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: looks it looks like the Red Sox will have the
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: new catcher, Adly Rutchman. It looks like he will be activated,
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: and I assume that means he's going to catch in
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: this game. Uh, so he will improve the Red Sox offense.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: Since the Red Sox catcher has basically been a hole
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: in their lineup. They've been it's been like Connor Wong
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: and then since the trade Jake Rodgers. Although I'll give
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: Rogers credit for getting some hits in some of those
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: games in that White Sox series. Rogers is probably gonna
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: be off the roster though, like sent to the miners
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: or whatever to activate Rutchman, because they're not gonna keep
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: three catchers there's no way, especially when when their catchers
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: are all bad offensively except for Rouchman now, but yeah,
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: it's been Connor Wong and Jake Rodgers being the catchers here.
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: So yeah, the Red Sox are probably gonna have Rutchman
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: in the lineup four out of five games, you know
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: what I mean, which is typical for a catcher that
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: is a good offensive catcher. Right, So that's probably what
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be doing. I assume he's gonna be in
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: the lineup here. How much is that really gonna help?
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Cease has no numbers against him as
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: we If you go back and look at the tab
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: on ESPN that I just showed you, I'm pretty sure
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: that's accurate, unless actually Rutchman might not be in there yet.
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure, because it tracks the active roster, and
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: if Rutchman is still considered to be in the minors,
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: maybe he has faced ceased before. I don't know. It's
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: kind of weird if he hasn't, But whatever, I don't
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: think it's gonna improve the Red Sox offense that much.
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox are actually taking the money here though
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: Toronto's at minus one forty something. I think maybe the
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: thought is that you're just paying too much of a
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: price for Cease. So the guys that do like the
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: pricing stuff, like the market stuff, They're gonna say, well,
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox went from being a favorite yesterday and
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: a bunch of games in a row to now all
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: of a sudden being an underdog. So those guys are
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: gonna tell you that means there's probably some value on
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox. But I'm gonna say, well, there is.
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's kind of a reason that Toronto's favored here. Obviously,
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: it's that this is a pitching mismatch in favor of
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: Toronto here. Yeah, that's why. So, yeah, I don't fully
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: buy into the oh the pricing like change. I mean
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: I could buy that maybe Toronto's a little bit overrated
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: with us Cease on the mound. I could definitely buy that,
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: But the price doesn't seem that high to mean, I
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: still think the way to play this is to take
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: Toronto in the first five innings here. I think Cease
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: versus Sandoval is a massive edge for Toronto. That's just
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: the way that I see it. Maybe I'm being, you know,
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: a negative and negatively biased here. I don't know against
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox because I'm really pissed off right now
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: and I don't see them winning this game really, but
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Obviously, the oddsbreakers are telling you there's
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: a chance the Red Sox win. They have seventy four
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets ninety four percent of the cash on them,
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: so the money is hitting the Red Sox side and
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: the total is really low at seven, which I think
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: also has to do with how bad these offenses are.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: So again, Sandoval might be able to kind of get
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: through this because the offense he's facing isn't good, but
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: the money is hitting the under so that's somewhat interesting,
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: I guess. But I still think first five Toronto is
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: the right way to play this. I think it's a
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: giant starting pitching mismatch in favor of Toronto. Man, you
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: probably have to lay a half run though, because the
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: oddsmakers also know that, so the money line is probably
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: gonna be at least minus one fifty on that, so
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: you'd have to lay the half run, but I think
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: that's what I would do, although then you're requiring Toronto
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: to actually score, but I think they will probably at
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: least score a couple of runs off a Sandov Also,
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: that's what I think there. Toronto first five would be
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: the way I would play that, but obviously not factor
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: in their bullpens, because the Red Sox pullpen is the
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: better one. All right, Mets, Braves. So finally we have
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: a game where the two teams actually played yesterday or no,
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: Boston Toronto did as well. My mistake, But yes, the
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: first four games I talked about were all teams that
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: were all off yesterday. The Mets got the win for
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: us on the show yesterday in the first five, and
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: they also won in the full game, although Scott wasn't
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: as good as I expected, but Elder was terrible right
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: out of the gate. So the Mets tried to blow it.
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: They tried to blow five nothing lead after the first
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: in or five nothing lead in the first inning. They
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: threw two of them right back, but they were able
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: to still get the win. The Mets use four relief
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday, the Braves only used two. The Braves are
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: gonna have a bullpen advantage here. They're number three, although
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: the Mets are pretty good as well at eighth, so
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: both bullpens are still good, but the Braves are the
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: better one and more rested. Braves are the better offense.
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: They're eighth, tied with Tampa Bay here. Mets are not
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: a good offense, although they've been better recently. They're twenty
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: fifth right now, tie with Saint Louis, and they've been
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: one of the better offenses in baseball over the last
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: week or so, which is kind of insane. But the
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: Mets do have the better starting pitcher on the mound
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: here with Nolan McLain, so possible. Maybe a Mets first
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: five is another is a look again today. You know,
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: I like McClain. He's got a three point five one
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: ARRA one point one to six whip. He's good on
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: the road, in fact, better on the road than he
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: is at home two point eight to one. Roady Ira.
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: He did face Atlanta not too long ago here in Atlanta,
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: and he pitched pretty well in that one, with six
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: innings allowed tour and runs, a lot of a decent
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: amount of strikeouts there and almost no walks. He kind
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: of struggled against them a bit more with a lot
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: of walks back at home in June. So he's faced
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: them a couple of times this year. Mclayan overall low
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: hit rate. His walk rate is slightly high, so that's
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: the one issue with him is his wildness. He's got
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: a pretty good strikeout rate as well, really good actually,
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: So yeah, his numbers are pretty good across the board.
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: It's just he has some control issues, but it's not
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: really that bad. The thing you have to worry about
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: with him is he's a young pitcher and he's up
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: over one hundred and thirty innings now this season, so
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: he's pitched more than he ever has in a year before.
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: Is he going to start to like trail off here?
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: That's the question, right, Like I usually say about one
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: point fifty is usually kind of the max, but maybe
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: that is a little bit high. He wasn't really good
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: and his last start against Cleveland a though his strikeout
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: stuff was still there, but he put a lot of
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: guys on base against a bad offense in Cleveland that
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: was on the road, and he gave up a lot
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: of runs in that one, although he still got the
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: win because the Mets put up a ton of offense
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: behind him and I think we might have had the
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: first five under in that one. Yeah, that didn't go
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: well obviously. But the thing that is good though, is
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: he's still striking guys out, so that kind of tells
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: me that he's not totally losing it yet. So I
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: think he will actually do our right here. He has
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: good numbers against the Braves fifty at bats, two hundred average,
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: five fifty three ops, fourteen to five strike out walk
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: ratio is not really that good, but the rest of
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: those numbers are good. I still, I mean, I like McLain.
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: I still kind of like him here, especially if you're
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: getting an underdog price, which you might in the first five.
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure, but I think he's he still has
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: the way higher ceiling here than Martin Perez. But the
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: problem is McLain again, he might be fatiguing because he's
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: thrown so many innings this year as a young guy.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: You know, Martin Perez, he's a guy that's just gonna grind,
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: and he hasn't really thrown that many innings this year,
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: and he is kind of old now. But he's also
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: not a hard thrower, and he's thrown a lot of
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: innings in various seasons throughout his career. So he's been
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: pretty good this year. A three point one four ERA
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: one point one five whip, really good at home two
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: point two to four homey Ira. The advanced analytics guys
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: don't like him because he doesn't strike guys out. He's
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: done good recently, though, I don't know what this last
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: outing was where he only went three innings against Miami,
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: but he shut them out. He didn't allow any hits,
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: and then he had a one hit seven inning performance
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: against Washington before that. So his last ten innings have
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: all been shutout innings. So he has pitched pretty well recently.
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate on the season. He's
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: been hard to hit. His walk rate is not great,
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: and his strike gut rate, of course is not high
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: at all. He doesn't strike guys out, but he's been
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: difficult to hit. However, you want to look at that
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: he gets a lot of ground ball outs and stuff
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: like that, soft contact and stuff. Against the Mets, he's
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: not been good though. They have one hundred and fifty
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: two at bats against so they're very familiar with them.
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: They have a three to nine average, eight forty nine
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: ops against him, twenty one to sixteen strike at walk ratio,
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: so again a really low strikeout rate there, bad ratio there.
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: Mets have hit him well. The last time he played.
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: He pitched against the Mets, he was he was okay,
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: give up a lot of hits though at New York
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: the time before that. He pitched against the Mets here
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: at home, both of those in July, and that was
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: not a good start from him here against the Mets
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: at home. He's actually had better starts on the road
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: against the Mets this year. The one at home was
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: the worst one. So do with that info what you want,
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: I guess, But yeah, I think given that pitching matchup,
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: the concern with McLain is is he fatiguing towards the
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: end of the season, you know what I mean? But
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: I think the Mets in the first five again is
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: probably my opinion in this game. The money doesn't really
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: agree Atlanta sixty nine percent tickets, eighty nine percent of
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: the cash on them. They're at minus one twenty something here,
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: though the line did drop for minus one thirty. With
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: the Mets in the first five, though, you're probably gonna
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: be getting like right around even money on it, or
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: maybe like a pick em price like minus one ten.
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: But I still that is the way to lean here.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: I think McLain has the advantage over Perez here. I
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: think Atlanta probably has the bullpen edge. One problem is
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: that Atlanta probably is kind of in bounce back mode
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: here though after that loss yesterday. Although the Mets are
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: seemingly showing up and trying to spoil the party here
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: against their division rivals. So Mets, I think are gonna
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: be motivated as well. Both teams will be motivated. The
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: money's also back in the over eight and a half here. Uh,
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: I'm not quite so sure that I see that. I mean,
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: my first instinct on this was more of an under
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: instinct here. But then again, if McLain is kind of
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: running out of steam here and Perez could potentially falter here,
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean, So the over isn't really
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: out of the question in that game, but I don't
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: have a great read on the total there. I think
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: Mets first five probably the best way to play it,
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: though Baltimore in Minnesota. I was not correct about that yesterday.
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: Oh no, I was. Actually I was correct about the
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: first five under. I also needed Baltimore and I wasn't
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: correct about that, But believe it or not, even though
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: it was a high scoring game, most of the runs
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: came home late. It was a two to one game.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: At the end of five, So I was correct about
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: the first five under Dean Kreamer actually pitched really well
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: in the game yesterday against his former team, even though
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: he's not good. I thought that he might pitch well
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: in that motivated spot going up against his former team
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: that just got rid of him, and he did, and
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: he outpitched Rogers in that game slightly so. And then
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: Baltimore's bullpen was awful in the game yesterday, Speaking of which,
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: can we trust Baltimore's bullpen at this point? I don't know.
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: They used four guys yesterday. They were really bad yesterday.
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's bullpen only used two, but they're still not good.
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: And they weren't exactly good yesterday. They gave up some
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: runs as well, Minnesota's twenty eighth out of the bullpen
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: Baltimore's thirteenth. So yeah, I still think Baltimore does have
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: the bullpen advantage here, although they look bad yesterday. Baltimore's
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: nineteenth in offense Minnesota twelve. So Minnesota is the better
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: offense here. Brandon Young's pitching for Baltimore here. These pitchers,
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: it's kind of an interesting matchup here. Young I think
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: overall might be the better pitcher, but his whip is
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: a little bit high. Three point four to three era
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: is pretty good. One point three to one whip is
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: a little bit iffy. He's not much different home in
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: a way. The splits are like very insignificant there. He
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: hasn't been that good over his last couple of starts though,
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: so he seemed like he was in good form for
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: a while, and then his last couple starts not in
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: good form, and it wasn't really against great offenses either
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia and Anaheim, both at home. So Young seems like
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: he's a little bit out of form right now. His
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: hit rate on the season is decent, his walk rate
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: is decent, strike out rate isn't really that good, doesn't
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: really strike guys out, although he seems to have found
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: something after kind of struggling to get his career off
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: the ground. He's had I think this has been his
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: best season so far, so at least there is that
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: against who are you talking about here? I already forget Minnesota,
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: right Yeah, Minnesota, the team that still thinks they might
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: make the playoffs, which I would have to disagree with that,
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: although obviously it's possible. But I think they suck their
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: pitching is nowhere near good enough, only carotene. He has
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: ever faced young from Minnesota's lineup, and he's one for three,
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: often with a single, no strikeouts, no walks. Bailey Ober
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: is pitching from Minnesota Ober four point four to five ERA,
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: but his whip is not too bad at one point
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: two to two. Olber doesn't really walk many guys, but
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: a lot of times he's too hittable. He's got extreme
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: splits though, and he's way better at home than he
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: is on the road, so he's in the better of
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: his home road splits here two point seven to two
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: home ra and one ninety four opponent a batting average
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: at home that's good. Pitched well last time out against
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: Kansas City and that he held them to three earn
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: runs at six innings and didn't walk anybody, but he
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: had no strikeouts. I mean, that's that's kind of a
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: red flag dude. To go six innings and not strike
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: any out against a Kansas City offense. That is not
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: that good. Although he pitched against Kansas City to start
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: before then at least had some strikeouts in that one over.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's I guess he's an okay form right now.
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: He doesn't allow that many hits this year. His walk
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: rate is pretty low. He doesn't really walk guys. His
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is very low though, so the advanced analytics
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: guys hate him. He doesn't strike guys out. He allows
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: a lot of fly balls to which sometimes translates into
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: too many home runs. His numbers against Baltimore are good though,
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: in sixty at bats one eighty three average allowed six
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: h six ohps sixteen to three strikeout walk ratio. So
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: I think Minnesota first five might be the way to
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: go here. I mean, I guess the first five under
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: might work in this game as well, just like it
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: did yesterday. Obviously, I would not trust the bullpens here.
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't trust either of them at this point. What
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: are we looking at here? It looks like the money
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: is backing Baltimore, which I don't really agree with. Fifty
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: four percent of tickets ninety one percent of the cash
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: on Baltimore. Motivation also might not totally be there for Baltimore, remember,
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: because they sold to the trade deadline, and they're not
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: considered to be a team that's actually going for it,
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: whereas Minnesota is. Even though I don't think they're good
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: enough to do it, but the money is back in Baltimore.
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: They're a little bit of an underdog. It's almost like
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: a pick on price now, though I still think Minnesota
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: first five might make sense because Ober is a lot
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: better at home and has good numbers against Baltimore in
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: a sample size that we can actually dig into, whereas
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: Young looks like he's kind of gotten out of form here.
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: The money is also coming in on the under total
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: nine and a half of the full game. I do
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: think the first five under is in consideration here, because again,
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: Ober is good at home, Young hasn't been that bad overall,
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: and he's unfamiliar to Minnesota, so he might have a
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: little bit of an extra advantage there being unfamiliar to Then. Plus,
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: Ober does have good matchup numbers, so I wouldn't disagree
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: with the first five under, although I think backing Minnesota
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: in the first might make more sense than anything else
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: in that one, but I'm not gonna do that obviously.
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati at the White Sox. White Sox is staying at
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: home after a nice series win against the against Cleveland.
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: White Sox are still leading the Al Central here, though
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're that good. The Reds. Though the
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: Reds are bad, the Reds don't really have a whole
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: lot to play for that. They did just get swept
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: by the Nationals, so maybe after that series, maybe they'll
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: come in with a little bit of motivation year to
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: try to redeem themselves. But the White Sox probably are
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: gonna have motivation because they're trying to win their division here,
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: So which way is it going to go here? Both
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: teams are off yesterday, by the way, so the bullpen's
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: are rested. The White Sox have the only backable of
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: the two bullpens. They ranked fifteenth. They're an okay bullpen.
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati is not. They're twenty fifth, so the White Sox
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: have a bullpen advantage here. White Sox also have the
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: better offense their thirteenth. Offensively, Cincinnati is where are they
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: at twenty third? I think the White Sox also have
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: the better starting pitcher on the mound here, But if
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: you want the White Sox, you're gonna have to pay
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: for it. And yes, I think the White Sox do
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: have the advantage throughout the matchup here, but they might
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: be in a little bit of a letdown spot right
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: because being in Cleveland, pretty big Cleveland's in the running
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: trying to beat them in the Al Central, so those
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: are pretty big wins for them. Cincinnati doesn't matter as
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: much to them. And maybe Cincinnati after that bad series,
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: maybe they pressed like the reset button, going to a
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: new place, and you know, with a day off, maybe
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati also shows up in rallies around at Nick Lodolo
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: because he's coming back from the injured list here with
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: some sort of finger injury, which, by the way, I
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: forgot to mention who was it yesterday? One of these
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: pictures was coming back from injury. Yes, I think it
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: was a Oh Garrett, your guy, Michael Sarraka, I guess
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: I forgot his His injury was an ass injury. I
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: forgot about that. I don't remember. I don't know what
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: he did to it, but that's why he was on
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: the injured list, Soraka. He was on the injury with
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: an ass That's I don't know why people say it
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: that way, like this guy's out with a knee. I'm like,
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: you mean a knee injury, right, Like, obviously this guy
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: has a knee. In fact, he probably has two of them. Yeah,
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: but I don't know. Siroca had some ass injury. I
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: assume it's that means it's a muscle strain or something
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: like that. I don't I don't know what was going
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: on with him, but that definitely would affect you're a
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: pitching motion though, and whatever else he wants to do
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: off hours, probably no. I have no idea nic Lodolo,
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: though he's coming back up. He seems to have weird
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: finger injuries. I think he had a blister issue at
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: the end of last year and maybe that came back.
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: I don't know what his injury was this time. He's
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: coming back from the injury list though. He wasn't really
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: having a good season though, four point sixty RA, one
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: point four to seven whip really not good. However, he
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: was better than this last year and really throughout his
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: career he's been a bit better than this. So he's
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: capable of doing better than what these numbers tell you.
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: He's been away, he's been on the d L for
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: a while now. He was pitching better on the road though,
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: three point three to two Roady I Ray, so his
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: road numbers were better than his home numbers. This year,
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: he hasn't pitched actually, I guess he missed not as
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: much time as I thought. He's only been out for
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: about a month. Interesting all right. Overall, though his hit
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: rate was too high, more than one per inning. His
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: walk rate really not that great either, a strike out
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: rate kind of low. So really his numbers across the board, yeah,
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: they don't look that good to me. So I don't
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: really know if I want to trust Lodolo, even though
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: I talk about how a veteran coming back from the
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: injured list a lot of times will be pumped up
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: to get back out there because they did all this
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: work to get back out there, and the team might
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: rally around him if they like him, you know, and
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: he's coming back, they might get a little bit extra
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: pumped for it. So I like backing pitchers in a
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: spot like that, But I don't know if I want
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: to back him just because he's not really that good
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: and he's going up against the White Sox were actually
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: playing for something here. The White Sox have decent numbers
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: against him. It's only nineteen at bats six hitters of
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: face him, but two sixty three average eight oh seven
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: ops four to two strike out walk ratio, So the
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: White Sox have had the upper hand against them when
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: they have faced him. And I think the White Sox
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: have the better starting pitcher here, which is Sean Burke.
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: Burke has had a good season at three point EIGHTYRA,
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: one point one two whip. Uh don't quite have to
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: worry about his innings pitched yet, He's not up to
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: where he pitched last year. He threw more innings last
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: year than what he's thrown this year so far. Last year,
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: it's interesting his whip was a lot higher last year,
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: but that was his first full season, so he never
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: can really gauge that much from that, and his walk
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: great was just way too high. But this year he's
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: really kind of gotten that under control, so he's he
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: might be a pretty good pitcher man last time, but
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: he wasn't really that good against the Red Sox, but
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: he was pitching really well prior to that, so I'm
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: not ready to say that we should totally pack it
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: in on him yet, based on the fact that he
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: threw more innings last year, so I think he has
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: at least one more good start in the tank here. Probably.
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: He does have a low hit rate here, low walk
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: rate this year, way lower than it was last year,
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: so that's a good sign. Strike out rate is high
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: as well, so his numbers are pretty good here across
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: the board, He's facing a Reds lineup that's not good.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: Only Blade has ever faced him, and he has had success.
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: He's two for six with two doubles, two walks, and
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: no strikeouts. But what do you take away from that
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: if one guy in the opposing lineup hits you. I
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: don't think that really matters that much. I think I
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: lean White Sox in this game. The money's not agree
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: with me at all. Though the line is around minus
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: one to fifty, it hasn't really moved that much. Eighty
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: three percent of the tickets on the White Sox, sixty
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: eight percent of the cash on Cincinnati, though, so the
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: money's back in the Reds. I think it's just because
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: everybody kind of knows the White Sox are the team
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: with somebody to play for here where Cincinnati really isn't.
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: So that means you'll have to pay extra to back
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: to the White Sox. But to me, I think they have
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: the better starting pitcher. I think they have the better bullpend,
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: I think they have the better offense. So to me,
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: the matchup favors the White Sox every aspect of this game,
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: and the situation to me, I guess is slightly negative
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: for them because it might be a little bit of
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: a letdown spot, but they do kind of have to
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: continue to be motivated to keep going, although you could
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: argue that, well, they have some padding in their division
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: right now because they're like three and a half games up,
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: so maybe they will kind of take their foot off
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: the gas a little. I'm definitely not gonna recommend playing
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: this game, but I think if I was going to,
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: I would still need to the White Sox making like
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: a minus one run line or something. Don't like the
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: market read on that at all though. And the money's
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: back in the over even though the total is only
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: seven and a half, and you would think that back
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: in Cincinnati kind of means you think it's gonna be
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: a lower scoring game because that's how the underdog can
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: hang around usually. Yeah, so I don't know about that
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: total indicating towards the over. I mean, there might even
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: be a few more indicators starts an under like maybe
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: Lodolo is extra pump to get back out there, although
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: I don't trust his matchup numbers or trust the way
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: that he pitches, really, but maybe there are more indicators
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: stows an under than an over for me, I would
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: only do it in the first five, though, if I
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: was gonna try to play the under it all. If
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: I was gonna play the Reds, I would only do
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: it in the first five as well. Because their bullpen,
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: I would exclude that in every case unless I was
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: fading them, you know, all right, But I still think
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: the White Sox run line might be the better minus
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: one run line, make your own or whatever, it might
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: be the better way to play that. Philadelphia is Saint
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: Louis close game yesterday, Philadelphia got out of there with
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: a six to five win. I think I said that
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: I kind of liked the over in that game yesterday,
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: and that did hit. Philly used two relief pitchers in
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: that game. Saint Louis. Neither bullpen is that good, so
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: that was kind of part of that opinion. Yesterday, Saint
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: Louis used four. I still would not trust either bullpen here,
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: even though Philly is probably a little bit better. Their
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: era is actually worse, but they're more rested. They're nineteenth
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: in the bullpen. Saint Louis is twenty first, neither offense
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: has been very good, Philly twenty second and they're not
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: that good on the road. Saint Louis twenty fifth, and
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: this is a hitter friendly ballpark here. Saint Louis is
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: probably gonna be difficult for them to score because they're
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: going up against Christopher Sanchez, who's obviously a top level
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: pitcher here. Two point six to five year ray one
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: point two to two whip is not elite though, so
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: he's starting to put some guys on base here, and
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: he's actually been pretty vulnerable on the road of four
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: point four to eight road he Ray, But what's really
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: kind of concerned, he's a three to twelve upon a
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: batting average on the road. He's been pretty hittable on
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: the road, which is kind of crazy. And he hasn't
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: really been quite as good like he was dominant for
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: a lot of the season, but going into the All
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: Star Break and out of the All Star Break, he
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: hasn't been as good. Still has a lot of strikeouts recently,
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: but he's he kind of struggled a little bit in
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: his last start against Washington, although they were a pretty
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: good offense. He's faced some good offenses here recently, so
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna knock him too much for that, but
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: he also walked a ton of guys against Baltimore. Even
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: though he struck out a lot of guys his overall
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: season numbers, his strikeout rates very high, so that's good.
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is not too bad. I mean, his
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: walk rate is a lot better than you usually get
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: from him. But it seems like whatever he changed makes
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: him more hittable because his hit ability has taken a
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: hit pun and tended. I guess his hit rate is
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: almost one per inning, which is higher than what you
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: usually get out of him, and a lot of that
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: has come on the road. For whatever reason. However, this
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: might be a better matchup for him if he's gonna
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: do well on the road. It might happen in a
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: game like this, where Saint Louis only has four hitters
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: have faced him nineteen at bats, they only have a
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: one to fifty eight average against him, five eighty nine
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: oh ps, nine to three strike a walk ratio. Herrera
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: does have a home run off him, but not a
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: whole lot else going on here. And it's a pitcher
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: friendly park, so I'm not gonna come in and say
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: that I don't think Sanchez is gonna pitch well here.
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: I think more than more than likely. I think he
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: will pitch pretty well here, and he's better than Andre Payante.
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: He's pitching for the Cardinals here, though. Payonte does have
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: decent numbers on the season three point six to three RA,
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: one point two to WHIP. He's got some fairly significant
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: splits though, and he's not as good at home four
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: point three to four HOMI RA with a much higher
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: upon a batting average at home, so he is definitely
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: fatable at home. He's not nearly as good at home.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: He's been walking some guys recently, not going quite that
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: deep into some of these outings recently. Does have a
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: pretty low hit rate on the season, which isn't bad.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: Walk Rade I thought would actually be worse than this,
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: but his walk rate is not too bad. His strike
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: out rate is low though, so the advanced analytics guys
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: are gonna come in and not like him because they
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: don't like the low strikeout rate. But again I compare
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: it to the walk rate, and I'm like, is that
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: ratio that bad? It's not great, Like I look for
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: at least like a three strikeout to walk ratio and
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: he's below that. So it's not excellent. Pyonting, it's Philly,
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: though these are some bad numbers and fifty six at bats,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: three point thirty nine average allowed, eight forty eight ohps.
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: So I think the matchup has to tilt towards Philadelphia here.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: I don't love their bullpen. Maybe you take the bullpen out,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: but if you're gonna try to place Philadelphia here, which
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: I do lean to Philadelphia here, but if you're gonna
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: try to play them, the price is insane on them,
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: like it's basically unplayable. Actually maybe not. I thought it
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: was closer to minus two hundred. It's actually not. It's
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: like minus one sixty something. But ninety percent tickets seventy
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: four percent of the cash on Philly, so the money's
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: indicating On Saint Louis, the total is in the eight range,
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: and the money's kind of come in on the over here.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: I could see the argument for the over right, a
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: lot of it. You could uh point towards the home
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: road splits being bad for both pitchers. Sanchez is definitely
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: worse on the road, Payante is worse at home, so
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: and then you have two bullpens that aren't good. So
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: I actually kind of agree with the over in this game. Again,
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: I don't know if i'd really want to do it
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: with Sanchez on the mound. I think Philly does have
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: a lot of advantages in this game, Like well, the
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: starting pitching is, obviously I would say an advantage to them,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: But having to lay minus one seventy almost on the road,
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: I don't think you could do it. I mean, you
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: could try to make like a Philly run line and
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: you'll get all there at bats. It seems a bit
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: questionable to me. The other thing you could do is
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: you could play Philly over their team total. If you
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: think that Philly is gonna be the team it's more
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: likely to put up more runs in this game. Do
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: you think it's gonna be a high scoring game? Philly
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: over their team total makes sense. You'll probably need him
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: to score five. You might need him to get to six, though,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: but it's doable, I think for them in that game.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: And both bullpens are bad. I don't even know if
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: either bullpen really has a particular advantage in that game.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: All right, Texas and Anaheim on ESPN Unlimited. Anaheim returned
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: from the road yesterday and took the loss. You know,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: I talked about how teams when they returned from the road.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: It's a bad spot. It could be a distracted spot.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: Even though Anaheim might have kind of been playing to
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: try to play spoiler against Texas is trying to win
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: this division here. Whatever happened, it was a bad spot
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: for them. Texas won the game, but it was a
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: close game. It went into extra innings. I was correct
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: about that game being an under first five under. It
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: was very low scoring, both starters were good. I'm pretty
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: sure in that game yesterday, so kind of mad didn't
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: put that on my card. I was right about most
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: of the games yesterday, man, which I think today I'm
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: probably not gonna be right about a lot that I'm
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: saying here, but yesterday it made me look really smart.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: Anaheim could be in a bounce back spot, is what
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to say here, because when a team loses
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: in that spot, in the return home spot, a lot
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: of times they will do better and bounce back in
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: the next game. Here, I'm not so sure because yeah,
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: they're trying to play spoiler here, but Texas is probably
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: gonna still be motivated because Texas is trying to win
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: their division. I don't like either bullpen here. Texas has
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: struggled recently, they use five guys out of the bullpen
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: in that extra inning game yesterday, Anaheim used more than that.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: They use six. Anaheim's the worst of the two bullpens.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: They're twenty second, Texas eighteenth, but with extra usage and
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: the fact that neither bullpen has really been that good,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: I would not trust the bullpens here. Texas is sixteenth offensively,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: Anaheim's been bad. They're twenty seventh offensively and not good
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: at home offensively. Texas is going with Cody Bradford, which
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: is kind of interesting. I think he's only made one
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: start this year so far. Yeah, he's interested because he
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: actually had a good season back in twenty twenty four.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: He's still somewhat young, and that was really his only
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: actual season where he was a starter for a significant
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: amount of time with Texas, and he did actually pitch
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: well in twenty twenty four, so he might have something here.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: Like his strikeout walk ratio was really good. He didn't
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: really walk many guys, had a decent amount of strikeouts there,
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: and he was kind of hard to hit as well.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: So I like what we saw out of him in
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, and then an injury really kind of
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: derailed him, and he didn't pitch at all last year
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: in the majors. He's made one start this year and
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: it was tough to gauge what it was. He put
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: too many guys on base, as you can see as
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: a one point six to two ERA so far, but
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: he didn't allow any runs, so he's got a zero ERA.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: It was at home against San Francisco, so that was
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: one of the better situations that you could ask for
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: right in your return. You get to pitch in a
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: pitcher friendly park at home against an offense that isn't good.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: In San Francisco, he went four and a third, allowed
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: no runs on five hits, five strikeouts to walk, so overall,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: that doesn't look too bad to me, and as he
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: goes they might let him start pitching deeper into games.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: He's not good against Anaheim though, although they only four
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: hitters have faced him eleven at bats, they have a
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: three sixty four average against him one thousand oh ps
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: one zero strikeout walk ratio. Most of it is Needo
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: doing the damage though, three for six all singles there though,
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: and then Siri has a home run off him. Siri,
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: what is a home run? I have no idea, but yeah,
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: I don't think I would put that much stock into
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: those numbers. So like, I actually think Bradford might actually
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: pitch reasonably well here against another week offense, even though
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: some of their guys have hit him well, but he's
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: also unfamiliar to a lot of them, and I think
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: Bradford does actually have something. But it's gonna kind of
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: remain to me. It remains to me seeing how he's
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: gonna bounce back from his injury or whatever. Ryan Johnson
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: is getting to start for Anaheim. You know, as I
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: keep saying, he's a young guy and he's probably not
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: as bad as his numbers suggests, but these are not
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: good numbers. He struggled through the season. Seven point one one,
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: one point six whip that's really not good. Although he's
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: been better at home five point nine two era is
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: still not very good, but better than he is on
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: the road. He's walked way too many guys, though he's
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: had a lot of walks recently. This doesn't look good.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: Last time out, he didn't really strike out many guys either.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: Not liking what we're seeing here. His hit rate is high,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is high, his strike out rate is
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: kind of low. So I thought he was a guy
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: with decent strike up potential, but I might be wrong
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: about that because it looks like that's not really the case.
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: So I don't know. There's not really a whole lot
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: to like with him here. Texas has three hitters who
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: have seen him. They're two for three off him, with
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: a Seagert double being the only extra race hit, one strikeout,
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: no walks, So he is unfamiliar to Texas as well.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: But Bradford, We've seen more good from Bradford, right, Like
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: that season two years ago was actually quite good from him,
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: So I think Bradford is the more trustworthy pitcher here.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: The problem is, if you want Texas, he got to
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: pay a price for it. Shit big Road favorite in
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: this one, and everybody kind of knows that Texas is
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: trying to win because they're trying to make the playoffs
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: and whatever playoffs. The money's all coming in on Anaheim here,
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: Texas eighty percent of the tickets on them they dropped
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: for minus one to forty five down to the minus
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: one thirty range. Ninety five percent of the cash on
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: Anaheim here, so the money's all coming in an Anaheim.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: I think I kind of like Texas but again, you
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: know it is. It is technically a bounce back spot
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: for Anaheim after they lost in the return home spot.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: But I just don't seem much to like about the
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: matchup here. I think Texas has the better starting pitcher,
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: I think Texas has a better bullpend, I think Texas
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: has the better offense. So there's really not a lot
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: that I want to There's not really anything that really
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: makes me want to play Anaheim in that game, even
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: though the money seems to be indicating pretty strongly that way,
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: and the money's also playing the over at nine, I
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: could see that. I mean, if you get to the
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: bullpens early enough in this game, the bullpens are already
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: overworked and they're not really that good. So yeah, there
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: are probably more arguments for an over than an un
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: during that one. I don't know if I really want
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: to necessarily fade Bradford, though, I mean, Johnson is pretty
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: easy to fade right now, though, all right, I'll be
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: right back. I'll talk about the rest of these games
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: and then WNBA as well, though I don't have any
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: plays in any of those today, only one play for
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: me today. Man, it's a board that I just really
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: don't like. So hopefully I'm gonna get the one play
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: right with the Cleveland Indians and we'll leave it at
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: that for the day. But I'll be right back. At
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: least it's an underdogs even if they lose, not the
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: end of the world. I'll be right back. Yep. Inside,
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: I want to kill myself. We're on OWN seven run
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: over the last two days after tonight it was just
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: complete bullshit. So that's how I'm gonna start off this show.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: Horrible Sunday one and five. I don't even know what
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: to tell you above that. I just don't want to
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: do this anymore. I have never seen anything like this.
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses, not a
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: good day at all. OWN four next have not had
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: a good season. Man with wookends slump that I'm on,
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: and the slump continues, I've reached a new peak. Actually,
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: I'm going to burn my browins hat man. I don't
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: know what is going on with the Bruins. Arch epe
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: don't know.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 3: What day is anymore.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: But I don't even know what days anymore? Man, back
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: with you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: Back with you as I always am until I die
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday did not
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: The slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: do with this point other than potentially ended all. All right,
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: Colorado and Arizona. Arizona, they're trying to make the playoffs here, man,
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: they're playing pretty well. Recently, they got a pretty good record.
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: Now they're still seven and a half back of the Dodgers.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: Who people are I don't know. People are seemingly writing
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: off the Dodgers for some reason, even though they're the
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: best team in baseball. They're completely stacked, They're about to
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: get another one of their pitchers back, and they have
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: one of the best records in baseball. Yeah, writing off
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers is stupid, but yeah, Arizona's playing pretty well.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, Colorado is not a good team and Arizona
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: beat them nine to nothing yesterday. The only thing surprising
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: about that maybe is that Colorado didn't put up any runs.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: And you'd think that this might be kind of a
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: high scoring series because the pitching might be a little
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: bit lackluster here. And of course I don't like the bullpens.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: Colorado's bull and is not good. They used two guys yesterday. Also,
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: Colorado is a decent offense and this is a hitter
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: friendly park. Arizona only use one guy, and it was
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: their newcomer, Zach Lttel. I don't know if Washington just
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: dumped him at the like, do they just cut him,
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: I have no idea, or do they actually trade him?
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: I mean Lattel, I mean he's an arm I guess,
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: and Arizona's using him in like a long relief role.
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: And I guess he didn't allow any runs yesterday, so
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: good for him. I guess. I don't think he's a
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: good pitcher, but whatever, Arizona picked him up. I don't
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: really like Arizona's bullpen. They're number six for their eras
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: above four. I'm not a huge fan of that, so
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: I think they're maybe just like a I think their
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: mediocre bullpen. Colorado is bad though twenty seventh they're definitely
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: the worst of the two. Colorado is the better offense.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: Their fifth still offensively Arizona twentieth. Arizona has been better recently,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: though they're tied with Kansas City. Now that doesn't sound good,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: but Arizona was worse than that for a while. Colorado's
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: going with Tomoyuki Sugano in this game, who is making
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: the advanced analytics guys rip their hair out because he
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: keeps pitching pretty well, uh four point five to one
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: ERA one point twenty six whip or his results keep
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: being pretty good. I will say his numbers are mediocre here,
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: and I think that's what he is. I think he's
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: a mediocre pitcher. I don't think he's as bad as
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: the advanced analytics guys say, just because he doesn't strike
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: guys out. But he's done this for two entire seasons now, basically,
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: like it's not a fluke. When you for two and
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: a half seasons, you've exceeded like what your expectations are.
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: I don't know. He's not that good on the road,
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: believe it or not. He's actually better in course field,
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: which makes me laugh every time. He's got a five
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: point one to three roady ra so he's not really
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: as good on the road. He's still pitching pretty reasonably though,
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: Like I mean, he's just not allowing that many runs.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: He's eating up some innings here. He's not gonna kill
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: you for the most part. A couple of these games
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: he didn't do well, and even in those games he
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: got enough offensive support behind him that one of the
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: games they won anyway, with the twenty three to nine
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: A's game in that ridiculous Vegas stadium, and then they
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: almost won the game where a looted a bunch of
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: runs against Minnesota. His hit rate is a little bit
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: too high, no doubt about that. He doesn't walk guys though,
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: and his strikeout rate is definitely low, no question about that.
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: But at least he doesn't walk guys. He does a
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: lot of home runs. He's kind of a fly ball pitcher,
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: which you think would kill him in Coors Field, but
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: it still hasn't. It's not great for this stadium either.
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: This is a home run at Conducive Stadium. And the
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: other thing not great is Arizona does actually hit him well.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: They have forty two at bats against some two eighty
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: six average against some eight hundred ohps five to three
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: strike a walk ratio. So do I trust him to
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: pitch well in this game here? No, I don't, you know.
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: Maybe all in line with the advanced analytics guys in
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: this particular game. But Sugano not that good on the road,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: doesn't have good numbers against Arizona. I would lean towards
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: him not doing that well here. Arizona's going with Mitch Bratt,
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: who we still don't really know what we're actually gonna
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: get out of him. He's a young left deal, though
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: I wasn't really impressed by, like looking at his minor
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: league numbers whatever. I think Cole Drakes might have been worse, though,
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: I get them confused, these two young guys that Arizona
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: has here. Bratt might be the better of the two.
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: He's got a three point ninety array here, but his
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: whip is really not good one point five to two,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: so that indicates his era should be way higher than
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: it is. He's been good at home though, one point
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: five for Homie Ray, so that's not bad. He was
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: lights out last time out against San Diego. Really good
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: start from him there, seven inning shut out with one
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: hit aloud, nine strikeouts, three walks, So he's a little
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: wild there. The wildness is a concern for sure, Like
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: that's the main reason why his a whip is so high.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: Is his walk rate is really high. But he shredded
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: San Diego in his last start. Maybe he's actually not
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: a bad pitcher man. I don't know, but San Diego
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: not the greatest of offenses obviously, Brat overall, his hit
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: rate's not too bad, it's below one per inning. His
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: walk rate is clearly too high. Like I said, his
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate really isn't that good, So I don't know.
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's not a ton that I really like
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: about him. Maybe he'll do well here because Colorado has
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: seen him before, so Bratt might have the upper hand
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: there just because he has unfamiliarity this game. To me,
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: it reads like an over game to me, though, I mean,
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure that Bratt is really that good. Sogano
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: might struggle here on the road both bullpens I would
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: probably fade here. So yeah, I think maybe the over
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: makes the most sense in this one. Where are we
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: looking here? It looks like the money agrees with me.
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: The totals at nine and a half now, so it's
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: off of that key number and nine we're open. So
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: unfortunately you're not getting the best number now you're gonna
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: have to lay the hook on the nine and a half.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: But that does indicate some real money probably came in
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: on the over to hit it up to give it
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: the hook on that key number there, And you can
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: see the money here. It looks like that's the case.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: Fifty nine percent of tickets on the under, eighty one
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over. So yeah, I
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: think the over probably is the best way to play
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: that public is on Arizona ninety two percent of tickets,
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: seventy nine percent of the cash there at minus one
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: eighty or so. Here it's too much of a price,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: like it should Bratt really be favored at that price
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: against anybody. Probably not, so I can kind of see
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: where that opinion is coming, Like it looks like some
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: of the money is back in Colorado. It's really just
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: because of the price. But I think Arizona probably is
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: gonna win this game. I think they do have the
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: starting pitching edge here, although it's questionable probably and they
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: probably have the better They do have the better bullpen here.
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: But Colorado does have the better offense. Yeah, anyway, I
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: think over is probably the better way to play that
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: and not really try to figure out the side Milwaukee
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: at San Diego. I looked at this in my first
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: reaction was, yeah, Milwaukee has the better pitcher here, Harrison
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: against Bueller, Like, are you serious? I started digging into
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: it though, and I don't really like it that much.
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: Both bullpens aret good, and it was actually San Diego
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: that used the better relievers yesterday or the fucking site
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: is not loading again, so that's awesome. Milwaukee only used
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: one guy out of the bullpen yesterday, so they might
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: have a bullpen advantage in this one. San Diego used three,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: including Mason Miller, to save the game yesterday, because, as
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: I said, we got the underwright in the game yesterday,
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: and San Diego held off Milwaukee and won the game yesterday.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: Both bullpens are good, San Diego seventh, Milwaukee ninth. Milwaukee
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: has a better era and more rest here though, so
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: they might have a slight bullpen advantage here. But I
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: wouldn't hate still backing either bullpen here, though. It depends
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: on what you're trying to do, you know, Milwaukee's number
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: six in offense, tied with Houston. San Diego is definitely
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: worse than that. They're twenty four, so Milwaukee does have
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: an offensive edge here. Milwaukee also has I think the
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: better overall pitcher here, Kyle Harrison. He's had an awesome season,
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: of course, after the Red Sox didn't hang on to
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: him and got rid of them too. Point eight four
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: ERA one point zero four whip really good stuff there.
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: Not as good on the road though, four point nine
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: to one Roadier Ray, so he might be fatable on
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: the road. He was injured for about a month and
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: he came back and had a ton of strikeouts against Pittsburgh,
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: which is pretty impressive because Pittsburgh's a pretty good offense.
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: They didn't let Harrison go that many pitches in the game,
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: but he had ten strikeouts in five innings and one hit,
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: shutout them with one walk. So yeah, Harrison looks like
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: there were no effects lingering from whatever the injury was
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: because he looked good in that game. He's got a
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: low hit rate, low walk rate, high strikeout rate. All
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: these numbers are good like borderline elite looking honestly, however,
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: what's not elite is his numbers against San Diego, believe
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: it or not, are actually bad. They're one of the
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: teams that's gonna be the most familiar with Harrison because
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: he was on the Giants for most of his career. However,
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: what I will say is that he wasn't that good
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: when he was on the Giants. He is all of
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: a sudden really good now at the age of twenty four.
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if you should really put that
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: much weighted to these numbers, but it hasn't been good,
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: and they are familiar with him, which might give them
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: a little bit of an edge. Fifty two at bats here,
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: two eighty eight average, eight seventy three ohps, eleven to
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: two strikeout walker ratio good ratio for him, but the
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: rest of these numbers are not that good. So he
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: has struggled against San Diego. Walker Bueller is picture for
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: San Diego. Though he's not good. I don't think he's
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: ever gonna return to what he was before his Tommy
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: John surgery or whatever. He's got a five point oh
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: seventy ray one point four to six whip. He is
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: a little bit better here in this stadium. It's a
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: pitcher friendly park in San Diego four point seventy to one.
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 2: Homie Ray is still not great. He's been pretty mediocre really.
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: He's not allowing that many runs recently, but he's not
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: going deep into these outings, so that kind of makes
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: it look better than it really is. He's not doing
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: that well. He's got kind of a high hit rate here.
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is definitely too high. Strikeout rates not
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: really that good, not a whole lot tolike here with Bueller.
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: His numbers against Milwaukee are also not good. In eighteen
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: at bats three thirty three averag twelve thirty two ops
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: four to four strike a walk ratio. So I still
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: think there is something to be said here about looking
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: towards the Milwaukee side. Here, the money's not agreeing with it,
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: and they dropped for minus one forty four down to
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: minus one thirty or so some real money is fading
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee here, eighty three percent of tickets, seventy one percent
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them. I still think they have
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching edge here, and debatably maybe the bullpen
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: edge here. So I think I kind ofly Milwaukee in
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: this one, or maybe in the first five only if
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: you want to just isolate Harrison over Bueller, they might
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: have a big enough edge there, but you saw Harrison's
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers are not really that good, so I actually
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: think they over might hit in this game. Even though
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: it's a low total. It's seven and a half, so
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: the odds makers are kind of signaling it's gonna be
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: an under type of game. Sixty four percent of tickets,
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: ninety five percent of the cash on the under, so
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: the money's also playing the under. But neither pitcher has
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: good matchup numbers. Man, so I could see this. I
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: could see that being enough to get this thing over
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: that total, you know what I mean, Even though usually
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: I do not want to play over a low total,
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 2: but in this game, I do slightly lean towards an over,
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: and I lean towards Milwaukee. But the money's disagreeing with
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: both of those. So yeah, that game is a stay
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: away from me. But my initial reaction was just Harris
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: is better than Bueler, obviously, so you know Milwaukee, but
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: it's not gonna be a play for me or anything.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: And if you're gonna play them in the first five,
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: you're probably gonna have to lay a run line on it,
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: lay a half run because the price is gonna go
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: up if you want to lay Milwaukee in the first five.
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: All right, Tampa Bay at the A's. This is I
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: don't even know what to say. I said over in
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: yesterday's game, I'm pretty sure, and that is what happened.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: It was a high scoring win for Tampa Bay yesterday,
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: ten to six. The A's are in a return home spot, too,
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: so I was also correct. I said I leaned to
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay as well. I was correct about that too.
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay used three relief pitchers. I was right about
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: everything yesterday, man, so I'm gonna be wrong about everything today.
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: It's the law of averages. Tampa Bay used three relief
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday. Wait, we're not talking about Colorado. No, the A's.
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: I'm like, wait, which team with a really home run
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: conducing park are we talking about here? Yeah? The A's.
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: The A's use three relief pitchers. The A's are a
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: horrible bullpen. Tampa Bay is ranked second, although I don't
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: think they're quite that good, but they're a decent bullpen.
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: The A's are twenty ninth, so they're awful. So there's
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: obviously a big bullpen edge for Tampa here. Tampa's eighth
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: offensively tied with Atlanta, better than the A's or seventeenth.
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: A's have some injuries now they've kind of fallen apart,
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: So Tampa Bay has a lot of advantages here. They
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 2: might have the better starting pitcher here as well, Nick Martinez,
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: but he's kind of an old guy, and he's a
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: guy that the advanced analytics guys don't like him because
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 2: he doesn't strike guys out, but he also doesn't put
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: guys on base. He's got a two point six to
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: five year array one point one whip, and I agree
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: with the advanced analytics guys that he's not as good
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: as those numbers would tell you, But I don't think
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 2: he's as bad as those guys think either. He's been
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: good on the road one point eight five Roadie Ray,
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: so he's good on the road. And he just pitched
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: in course field and shut out shut the Rockies out
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: for five and two thirds. So he pitched well in
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: a home run conduces stadium, So that's a good indicator
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: they can pitch well here in the A's stadium as well.
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: He could. He's not He is an extreme flyball pitcher though,
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: so that's he isn't I mean, his home run rate
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: isn't great, but it's not horrible, So I don't know, hi, man,
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, it doesn't look like he's the great. He's
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: a great style of pitcher for a home run stadium
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: like this, like you don't really want to be a
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: fly ball pitcher, and he is one. But then again,
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: he pitched well in course field last time out, so
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know how we can figure that out. He's
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: got a reasonably a low hit rate here. He really
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: doesn't walk anybody, so he doesn't really put many guys
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: on base, but he doesn't strike anybody out either. However,
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is so low that a strikeout walk
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: ratio is actually still pretty good. So I kind of
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: go against the advanced analytics guys there. I'm saying, well,
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: on the amount of guys he puts on base and walks,
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 2: his strike out rate is still actually decent. But yes,
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: I agree that he's not as good as people think
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: he is based on his numbers. However, against the A's,
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: they only have one hit against him in nineteen at bats.
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: Only Geloff has a single against him, and that's it.
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: OH fifty three average two thirty four ohps six to
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: three strike out walk ratio. So he draws a decent
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: match up here at least, and then he's facing an
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: offense that hasn't done well against them. I think Martinez
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: might actually pitch okay here. Mason Barnett is pitching for
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: the A's. He's a converted reliever. He's still young. His
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: numbers are not great, a five point five six ERA,
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: one point three to eight whip. He's a little bit
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: better at home, believe it or not, five point h
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: nine Homie RA so he's for some reason better in
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: this stadium. Struggled last time out on the road at Cincinnati.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: He was decent in his last home start, which was
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: against the Red Sox. Red Sox still escaped with a
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: win in that one. Barnett hasn't really been going deep
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 2: into these outings though, so he's mostly been working out
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen. So that's something you do have to
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 2: worry about with him. His hit rate is not too bad.
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is definitely bad, though he walks too
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: many guys. His strikeout rate is pretty good though he
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: actually does have decent strikeout stuff it looks like. So
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: his problem is the command, and you got to worry
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: about him not going deep right, because the A's bullpen
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: is so bad. You want them out of the equation
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 2: as long as possible, and Barnett might not do that
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 2: for you. For Tampa Bay, only Hicks has ever faced
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: him before, the guy that Tampa just picked up at
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: the trade deadline? From? Where do they get him from? Miami? No, Baltimore.
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Miami probably didn't sell with the trade.
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I forget whatever. Maybe I can look
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 2: just because I want to answer my own question, Hicks. Yeah,
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: it was Miami, That's what I thought. So Miami did
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: actually trade him away at the trade deadline. He's over
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: one with a walk against Barnett, so whatever. Not a
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 2: whole lot to really read into there. What do we
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: do with this game? I honestly, I don't I don't know, man.
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, it seems like Tampa does have a lot
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: of advantages in this game, but you have to lay
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: a huge price for them minus one seventy almost here,
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 2: ninety percent of tickets, ninety two percent of the cash
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: on them. They look like a very public side, but
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: it looks like there isn't a whole lot of money
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: coming in against them here at the very least you
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: could lay a run line with Tampa maybe, and I
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: think maybe they'll be able to win again. However, the
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: A's are technically in one of those bounce back spots
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: where they return home from a road trip, so I
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: think they were kind of in a negative spot yesterday
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: plus possible let down off of beating the Red Sox,
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: so it was kind of a bad spot for them,
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 2: and now they're settled back in at home, maybe they'll
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: actually do better here. A lot of times that is
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 2: a bounce back spot, so the situation kind of favors
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: the A's. But there's really not a lot to dig
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: into here, Like I don't think the A's have the
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: edge at any point in this matchup, Like I think
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: Tampa has the better starter, the better bullpen, and the
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: better hitting. So how do you really play the A's here?
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: Like you'd be basing an entirely off of price, and
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: I don't think that's really enough. Although, yeah, the price
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 2: is high on Tampa, so I'm not gonna come in
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: and play Tampa. Although I think if I had to
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: make a play in this game, I think that is
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: probably what I would do. If you forced me to,
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: I probably would make like a minus one run line
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: with Tampa. But I don't want to do it. And
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: that's the beauty of not having to bet every game
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: out there, And in fact, I'm gonna give out plays
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 2: on very few games in general. San Francisco against the
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 2: Astros Houston won yesterday six to three. San Francisco is
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 2: not a good team, man, and looking at this, this
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: is like a huge pitching mismatch in favor of Houston here.
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: So I like Houston in this game. But the problem is,
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 2: this is the game where you have to lay minus
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 2: two hundred on it. I don't think you could do it, man.
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: The price is just way too much. But I think
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: Houston has a pretty big advantage in this game. Really,
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: throughout this game, Houston's bullpen is actually not that bad
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: at this point. These two guys yesterday they did I
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 2: think use their closer though hate or San Francisco used
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: five guys out of the bullpen. Though Houston's bullpen is
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: not bad at this point. They're tenth not too bad. Yeah,
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: below four San Francisco mid fours ERA twenty fourth ranked
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: not good. So I still give Houston a bullpen edge here.
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: Houston's got the better offense as well, the ranked six,
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: tied with Milwaukee. I keep saying San Francisco's offense isn't
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: good and they're back down to eighteenth year, so yeah,
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: I think I'm right about that. And they're definitely not
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: that good at home, and I don't think they're gonna
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: do much against Hunter Brown, who I think is starting
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: to pitch better again. Brown's kind of had an up
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: and down season with some injuries, but he's definitely a
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: talented pitcher though, and he has had some good seasons
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: in the last couple of seasons. He's got a three
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: point five to three RA one point two to four whip.
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 2: His walk rate has really been an issue for him
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: this year. That's been the issuyear that's driving up his
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: whip right now. He's been good on the road though,
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 2: two point four to five Roady Ray. This is a
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: pitcher friendly park against a weak offense, so I think
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: he should do well here. He pitched fairly well over
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: his last few starts here, a couple of them against
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: some bad offenses, but he's been good over his last
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: few starts for the most part. He's got a low
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 2: hit rate on the season. He hasn't pitched that much
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 2: yet still because of the injuries. But yeah, his hit
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: rates good. His walk rate is the only issue with
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 2: him right now. He's walking way too many guys this year.
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: His strike gut rates decent, it's pretty high, gets a
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: lot of ground balls. If he fixes the walks, he'll
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: be back to where he was last couple of seasons.
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 2: Where he was. He was really good last year and
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 2: the year before that he was pretty good, although his
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 2: walks were a bit of an issue two years ago
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 2: as well. Kind of figured that out last year. I
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 2: think he will pitch well here. San Francisco is unfamiliar
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: with him to only a Damis has faced him and
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: he's zero for two against them, no strikeouts, no walks.
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I think Brown will pitch well here, and
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: I think he's the way better pitcher against Carson wizen Hunt,
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: who's getting the start for the Giants. I'm not sure
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 2: that he's really gonna start him, and I guess he
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 2: probably will, but I think if we're gonna play this game,
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: he should pick Brown must start for Houston. Don't pick
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: a starter for San Francisco because they might put an
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 2: opener in front of wisdom Hunt. I think he will pitch,
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: but he's not good. He pitched a bit last year,
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: he wasn't good. He's pitched this year a bit. He
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 2: wasn't good seven point or he isn't good. Seven point
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: twenty five yarra one point eight to four whip. None
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 2: of that is good a though. He is significantly better
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 2: at home, so I'll give him that five point zero
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: sixty r R at home with a much better two to
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: eleven upon a batting average at home, So that's not bad.
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: But there's really not a lot to like here. He's
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 2: only made five appearances so far and it's not good.
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: His hit rates highs walk rate is really high, strikeout
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 2: rate is okay, but he's putting massive amounts of base
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 2: runners on. I mean, this is not good and allowing
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 2: a lot of runs along with it. Astros haven't seen
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 2: him before, but that's not going to be enough, right Like,
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 2: if you're not pitching well, unfamiliarity alone is not going
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 2: to carry you. So I don't like wizen Hunt here.
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 2: I think Houston is the right side here. They're also
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: the team that has anything to play for here, but
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 2: everybody kind of knows that, and they're a very public side.
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 2: And the price on them is kind of ridiculous. Ninety
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 2: three percent of tickets, ninety four percent of the cash
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: on them. They open minus two hundred, and then now
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: they're down to minus one eighty. Price is a little
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 2: bit better. It's still kind of crazy, though. I don't
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: think if I was gonna play this game at all,
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: I would lay the run line with Houston, though I
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 2: think Houston should win. Can they get enough runs here
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: to win by margin? Yeah? They can. I mean the
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: money's playing the over at eight here. The other way
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 2: that you could do this is to just play Houston
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 2: over their team total, but then you're taking what I
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: think is an advantage away, which is Hunter Brown. I
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 2: think he's a big edge to Houston. By the way,
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 2: San Francisco hasn't even actually listed wizen Hunt as a
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: starter here. I think it is gonna be either him
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 2: starting or he's gonna come in after an opener. But
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: you can't even pick a San Francisco starter right now,
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: and I'm fine with that. Like I think, if you're
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: gonna play this game, I would still play Houston and
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: make some sort of run line or just lay the
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 2: minus one and a half or something and hope that
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: it hits. But am I actually gonna do it? No.
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 2: I don't really like laying these huge road favorite prices
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: unless there's a really really good reason to do so.
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: I've probably done it before this season, but this is
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 2: not one of those cases. And maybe I'm evolving a
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 2: little bit more here. Kansas City at the Dodgers the
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 2: last game up. The Dodgers were able to get the
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: win yesterday, but only six to five, but still they won.
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 2: Kansas City not a good team, interesting pitching matchup here,
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: where it looks like this could be an under based
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 2: on the starting pitching matchup. But I started digging into
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: the numbers and I actually completely flipped around and I
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 2: actually kind of liked the over in this game. Kansas
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: City's bullpen is bad, so that's one thing that if
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 2: you want to play the over, you get that going
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: for you. They use three guys yesterday the Dodgers use four,
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: and I don't really like the Dodgers bullpen that much either.
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: At this point, they're ranked eleventh or ear rays above four.
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: I'm not a huge fan of that. Kansas City's way worse.
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: Though they're ranked dead last their thirtieth, they're not as
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: bad as the A's. Their ERA is better than them,
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: but they're still really bad bullpen, they're the second worst.
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 2: Dodgers are number one offensively, tied with the Nats, so
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: that's also that helps if you're gonna play the over here.
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: Kansas City not great offensively their twentieth tied with Arizona,
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 2: but they might be able to get something going here maybe,
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: although they're facing a picture who's good, it's just the
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers kind of point towards an over here. Michael
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 2: Walker's pitching for Kansas City, and like I said, when
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 2: I initially looked at this, I was thinking we had
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 2: two good starting pitchers here, and I do think we do.
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 2: It's just they don't have good matchup numbers here. Walker
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 2: has been good for basically his entire career, but yeah,
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: he's got a three point four to four ERA here,
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: one point one to five whip. He's not as good
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: on the road though, three point eight to seven roadyray,
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: so he's a bit more beatable on the road. Walked
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: too many guys in his last outing against the Twins,
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: but he has been good recently. His last five starts
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: or so have all been pretty good. His hit rate
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 2: is law in the season. His walk rate is okay,
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 2: it doesn't really walk many guys. Doesn't strike guys out either,
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: really of them. So maybe the advanced analytics guys don't
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 2: like him either, but I haven't really heard them complaining
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: about him much, probably because he has a long career
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 2: of success. However, he has not had success against the
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 2: Dodgers and sixty eight at bats. He's got some ugly
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 2: numbers three eighty two average allowed, one thy, sixty four
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 2: oh ps, fourteen to ten strike a walk ratio. So
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: none of that is good. So this is not the
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 2: greatest matchup for Walka. He's worse on the road and
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 2: does not have good numbers against the Dodgers. I think
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 2: he might struggle in this one. The Dodgers are bringing
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 2: back Blake Snell, So just like last year, we're getting
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 2: to the point where the Dodgers late in the season
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 2: they're like, let's bring our starters back, you know what
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, They get these old guys get to rest
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 2: for the entire season. Snell, Glass Glasszow is not really
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: that old. I don't think Snell really isn't either at
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 2: thirty three, but it feels like he's been around forever
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 2: that this is what happened last year, right Glass now Snell,
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 2: they were injured for like the whole season. The Dodgers
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 2: just like whatever, we can make the playoffs without them.
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 2: Bring them back, you know, with a month to go
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: or whatever, get them ready again, get them a bunch
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 2: of starts under their belt again, and then you have
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 2: these guys in the playoff rotation. It's just completely absurd. Now,
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: Snell hasn't pitched much this year, and I know his
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 2: numbers look horrible. Twelve Vra point two point sixty seven
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: whip he only made on start, and yeah, it obviously
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 2: wasn't good against against Atlanta, But can you really take
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 2: that much away from that? I would say no. I mean,
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 2: we know what Snell has been throughout his career, and
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 2: after he came back last year he did pitch pretty well. Overall,
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: his overall numbers over the course of his career they're good. Yeah,
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 2: So I don't think there's that much to really dislike
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 2: with Snell here, But we do have to look at
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 2: what his numbers are against Kansas City, and as I
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: was alluding to, they're actually not good. In fifty three
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: at bats, he does have a good strikeout walk ratio
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 2: against him eighteen to three, which interesting because Snell's biggest
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: issue is the walks. He's usually unhittable, but he walks
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: too many guys and he does get a lot of strikeouts,
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 2: but against Kansas City he hasn't really walked that many
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: of them. Three h two average against here and seven
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 2: to seventeen ops, so his numbers are not great against
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: Kansas City. Although the ops is okay, he hasn't allowed
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 2: that much power to them, but the batting average is high.
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: I could see this going both ways for Snell, like
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 2: I actually think walk up is he's the more likely
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: pitcher to struggle. Yere Snell might do okay, because you
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 2: know what I always say, when a veteran comes back
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 2: from the injured listing again, he's gonna be excited to
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 2: get back out there, like Snell has been waiting for
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 2: the entire season, working the entire season to get back
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 2: out there, you know what I mean, try to win
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: another championship. Whatever. So I think Snell will be excited.
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 2: I think the team will get pumped up. That might
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 2: give them a spark, you know what I mean, because
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 2: they haven't been playing that well. So maybe him coming
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 2: back will pump the team up a little bit. So
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 2: I could see that angle, that it might be a
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 2: motivated angle. But I also think that given what both
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 2: pitchers have with the matchup numbers year, given that I
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: don't really love the bullpens, I think over makes the
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 2: most sense in this game. The totals at eight looks
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 2: like maybe eight and a half. If there's not much
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 2: of a difference between those two numbers. It's in no
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 2: man's land there. It's not a key number. Fifty five
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 2: the over so the money seems like it agrees with
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 2: me on the over there. I think that's what I
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 2: would do. The Dodgers are way too public eighty nine
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 2: percent of ticket, sixty six percent of the casual on them,
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 2: so a lot of money fading the Dodgers. And I
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 2: think the thought is, well, if you can take like
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 2: a plus one and a half run line with Kansas
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 2: City and you get Kansas City's best starter at least
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 2: basically with walk up, they might be able to kind
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 2: of duel in like walk them might be able to
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 2: do the Kansas City I was saying, might be able
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 2: to hang around in this game, but walk on he
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 2: might be able to duel in this game as well. Maybe,
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 2: But if you think it's gonna be a higher scoring game,
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 2: it makes it more likely the Dodgers are probably gonna
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: be able to get this thing done. You could lay
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 2: the run line with the Dodgers, I guess. I mean
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: they do have the better starter here in general, I
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: would say, and the better bullpen and the better hittings,
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 2: So you could lay the minus one and a half
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 2: and hope that it hits. They probably won't bat in
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 2: the ninth inning. But if they don't bat in the
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 2: ninth inning, that means they're already gonna be winning. But
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 2: if they're winning by one, you're gonna lose that bet. Yeah,
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 2: I still think the over might be the better way
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 2: to play that. All right, WNBA. Before I leave here,
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 2: we do an ESPN game that's a big one at
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 2: least by WNBA standards, with New York and Indiana on
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 2: ESPN at Indiana seven thirty pm Eastern. There are some
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 2: conflicting scenarios here in this game. I would say Indiana
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 2: just had that game where they struggled kind of against Chicago.
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 2: Chicago made a big comeback for us. We got the
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: game right here on the show with Chicago covering. I
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: think Indiana was in a bad spot. As I said,
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: that game was sandwiched in between playing Minnesota and Vegas
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 2: into overtime and then they had this big game against
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 2: the Liberty up next, so I think it was a sandwich.
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: I think Indiana is still going to show up for
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: this game. The thing is the Liberty are going to
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 2: show up as well, because the last time they played
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 2: was here in Indiana, and Indiana destroyed New York in
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 2: that game, huge second half of Indiana. They won by twenties.
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 2: That was an embarrassing result for New York. I think
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 2: New York's gonna show up with more motivation and possibly
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 2: make some adjustments here. So even though I don't think
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 2: it's a bad spot for Indiana, I think they are
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 2: are going to show up in focus here. It's a
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 2: home ESPN game from them. I think New York is
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: gonna make some adjustments to that last game and be
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 2: able to hang around. The problem is New York's not
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 2: in a good spot either. New York just blew out
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 2: Vegas in an extremely satisfying win. They beat Vegas by
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 2: forty points, dude, So whenever somebody does that, I don't
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 2: want to back a team after they do something like that,
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. I think the only way
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 2: that you can kind of go is regression after a
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 2: game like that. So I do not like the spot
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 2: for the Liberty here either. The thing is, I kind
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 2: of still see them showing up because it was so
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 2: embarrassing the last time they beat Indiana, and if you
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 2: dig into this box score, it was kind of misleading, man.
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, Indiana shot better from the field. They were
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 2: lights out from the field. They hit fourteen threes, they
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 2: hit half of their threes, they took fewer threes than
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 2: the Liberty did, and Indiana also had a free throw
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 2: advantage in the game. Although they did kind of win
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 2: the game anyway, they won the rebound battle. However, the
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 2: Liberty were winning more than half the game though, so
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 2: it was kind of misleading that respect that Indiana had
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 2: a huge second half, so they made adjustments there. But
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 2: New York was winning for more than half of that
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 2: game basically, so I mean they were so yeah. I mean,
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to do with this game, to
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 2: be honest. The money's coming in on Indiana fifty two percent,
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 2: take US nine percent of the cash on them. They
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 2: already dropped from four and a half to two and
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 2: a half here, so I don't know if that indicates
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 2: that maybe there's an injury or something on the Indiana side.
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 2: Is there Clark actually might not play. It looks like
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 2: she's day to day. Yeah, game time decision. No, it
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 2: says she's probable, so she is playing. So I don't know.
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on with that line move.
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 2: Then I think Clark would also be more of a
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 2: move though, I think she would probably be about a
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: four point move and not a two point move, So
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 2: I don't know what that was. So the money's back
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: in Indiana, And in a way, you know, I could
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 2: see the argument for it, like New York is in
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 2: that possible huge letdown after just destroying Vegas, which was
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 2: a huge win for New York. Uh, So you know,
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 2: I could see the art for that. But I don't
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 2: think they're gonna overlook Indiana either. Maybe that does give
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 2: me a slight lean towards Indiana because it is a
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 2: home game coming off a much easier Really, it was
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 2: a game where Indiana didn't play well against kind of
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 2: a bad team in Chicago, so it could be kind
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 2: of a bounce back type of spot for Indiana here.
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 2: So yes, I guess I do agree now that I
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 2: kind of went through all that in my head, I
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 2: probably do agree with Indiana slightly here, but I don't
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 2: want to do it because it is kind of a
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 2: quick revenge spot for New York still, so probably more
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 2: indicators towards Indiana than towards New York. But it's not
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 2: a game that I that I would want to play
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 2: Washington at Vegas. Vegas is returning home from a road trip,
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 2: so it's not a good spot for Vegas. They've been
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 2: on the road for a while. They're on the roads.
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 2: It's August first, so they've been on the road for
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 2: quite a while. They went all the way to the
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 2: East Coast. They had some big games in here, last
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 2: couple of games at they won at Indiana they want
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 2: to at Atlanta, and then in Indiana in overtime against Indiana.
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 2: It's just those are big wins there Atlanta. In Indiana,
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 2: they had a big game against Minnesota that they lost
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 2: and they got destroyed by New York to finish the
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 2: road trip. But that was a bad spot and Vegas,
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 2: remember they actually benched all their players in that game.
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 2: Remember that's part of the reason why they lost like
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 2: that is Vegas literally just rested everybody young, Gray and Wilson.
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 2: None of them played in that game for the Aces,
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 2: So I would not read too much into that game, however,
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 2: And the reason they did that is because it was
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 2: a third game in four days, so it was a
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 2: difficult spot for them. But this is still difficult. They're
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 2: playing a third game in four days again here today,
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 2: in a fifth to eight days. Although at least their
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 2: best players will be rested because they didn't play in
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: that last game, so that doesn't negate the lack of
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 2: rest spot a little bit, you know what I mean.
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 2: But the fact that all their best players will come
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 2: back for this game here, but it is still a
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 2: problem because it is still a return home spot, and
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 2: you know, I don't like that. And Vegas is having
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 2: to travel all the way across country from the East
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 2: coast to the West coast. They got to play a
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 2: late night game, they gotta adjusted by logical clocks again,
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 2: plus deal with whatever home distractions there are. I don't
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 2: like the spot for Vegas. Washington They're a good defensive teams,
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 2: so they are good underdog. They just beat the Mercury.
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 2: That was the game where I thought Washington was gonna
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 2: not do well. I gave up Phoenix as a play
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 2: in that game. I don't know what happened to Phoenix
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 2: in that game. Washington's hot right now. They've won seven
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 2: games in a row, and they won against Phoenix in
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 2: a really bad spot. The problem with Washington is they're
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 2: also having to travel out to the West Coast to
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 2: adjust to the Pacific time zone. So that kind of
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 2: negates that disadvantage for Vegas because both teams have that
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 2: disadvantage having to go out to the Pacific coast and
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 2: play a late night game. So it's not good for
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 2: either team. But because it is a return home spot
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 2: for Vegas, I expect Washington will show up. Washington does
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 2: have a good defense, like I said, so they can
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 2: kind of hang around when they're an underdog. That is
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 2: kind of their specialty covering his underdogs. Vegas is actually
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 2: gonna play them twice here, which is kind of interesting.
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 2: But Washington here in this one, I think that's the
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 2: way to play. What's the total in this game? The
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 2: total is one seventy and a half. So yeah, it's
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 2: kind of on the lower side. It's the lower of
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 2: the totals today, though it's gone up a little bit,
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 2: but it looks like some money is coming back. And
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 2: on the under here Vegas, you can still find this
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 2: line at about seven, it looks like at some places,
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 2: So it's right on that key number. I would take
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 2: Washington plus seven, but the money is completely disagreeing. Eighty
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 2: one percent of the tickets on Washington. I don't buy that.
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 2: Do you really think the public is playing Washington here?
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 2: There's no way. Why would they come in and play
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 2: the team with the worst record here and it's not
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 2: really a record that looks that good, is it. Maybe
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 2: it is because maybe actually maybe I'm wrong, because they've
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 2: won seven games in a row. You know what. Maybe
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 2: the public is actually kind of coming in on them.
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but Vegas is not particularly good at home.
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 2: By the way, they're nine to five at home, which
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 2: isn't really that good. Yeah, I would still need to
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 2: Washington even though, yeah, maybe they're a little bit public.
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 2: It might be one of those scenarios, or maybe the
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 2: public is actually thinking, hey, both of these teams actually
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 2: have good records, you're gonna give me this amount of points.
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 2: It does look maybe a little bit tempting to them
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 2: eighty six percent of the cash on Vegas, but it
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 2: is still Vegas. Everybody knows they won the championship last year.
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 2: They're still one of the best teams this year. But
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 2: for me, it's about the spot. So yeah, I would
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 2: lean towards Washington there, but I'm not gonna do it.
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 2: And then Phoenix at LA. This is an interesting one, man.
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 2: This is the Kelsey Plumb battle because LA got rid
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 2: of her and she's on Phoenix now, so this is
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 2: her first time against her former teams, so they might
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 2: get up a little bit extra for it. But LA
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 2: might want to beat her, but I think the motivation
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 2: might be more on the Plumb side here, trying to
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 2: beat her former team. This game is in LA, but
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 2: it's not in LA's home arena. It's at some other
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 2: arena in LA. I don't really know why. That's why
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 2: it has the asterisk here, but it is a at
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 2: least it's a three quarters home game for LA. Let's
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 2: let's just say that. So it's in LA, but it's
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 2: not in their home arena. Now, LA is coming up
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 2: a couple of big games here. They won at Minnesota
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 2: a huge upset, and then they didn't really have a
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 2: letdown after that in a return home spot and a
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 2: letdown spot, they still almost beat Golden State. Like they
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 2: played tough against Golden State. They made a comeback in
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 2: that game and it was a close game late in
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 2: that game. So I think all of those two huge performances,
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 2: I think LA is in a bad spot here, and
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 2: they have New York up next, so it is kind
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 2: of a sandwich spot for LA here. However, they did
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 2: lose at home to Phoenix last time they played them
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 2: on the twenty second. That didn't involve Plumb in that
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 2: game though, and Phoenix. I do think Phoenix is under
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 2: the radar. I think they're not as bad as the
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 2: record looks. I know they were really ugly in that
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 2: game where he tried to play them last time. That
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 2: was bad. They lost to Connecticut the game before that
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 2: that wasn't good either. Something's gonna give here though. The
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 2: problem for Phoenix is they're returning home from the road.
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 2: Well they're not really. It's not a home game for them,
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 2: so it's the end of a road trip for them.
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 2: Though it could be tough playing five different games in
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 2: five different cities over the course of nine days. That's
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 2: not really that easy to do. So I don't really
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 2: want to back Phoenix here either. And they're coming in
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 2: from Washington, so they have to go from Washington all
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 2: the way to the Pacific coast. I don't love that,
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 2: you know. And meanwhile, LA, they're already at home. So
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 2: LA does have a little bit of a site advantage here,
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 2: not just because it's in LA, but because the travel
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 2: is better for them. LA is already in LA right now.
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 2: Phoenix is having to travel all the way across country
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 2: and readjust the Pacific time zone. So that is a
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 2: big negative for Phoenix. So I kind of leave Phoenix
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 2: in this game, but I can't do it. Man, Plumb
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 2: is actually out never mind, so never mind. I think
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 2: she was actually was she out in that last game?
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 2: Let me say no, she played, dude. I think that
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 2: was part of the reason we lost that game. She
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 2: got injured in that game and only played half the game.
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 2: That sucks. I didn't even realize that. That's bullshit. Man,
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 2: She only played fourteen minutes in that game against Washington.
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 2: Maybe if she didn't get knocked out of that game,
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 2: maybe we would have had it. I mean, we definitely
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 2: would have had a better chance to get that win
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 2: in with Phoenix there, but she got knocked out of
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 2: the game. So that's some bad luck for us there too.
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 2: But that does mean what does that mean though, injured
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 2: player theory spot. So this is gonna be Phoenix's first
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 2: game now without her since they got her on the team,
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 2: So it could be an injured player spot where they're
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 2: gonna play better without their new star player. So instead
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 2: of it being the Kelsey Plumb battle, I think it's
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 2: an injured player theory spot now where Phoenix might step
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 2: it up without her and you'll get a little bit
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 2: of extra value on them. So it looks like they
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 2: were gonna be a one and a half point favorite,
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 2: but now it's a two and a half point LA
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 2: price here and La they're not really the type of
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 2: team you want to lay points with. Man, they're not
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 2: a good defense. And the money is coming in on
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 2: the over in this game, and it's somewhat it's not
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 2: really that high of a total. The total in New
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 2: York Indiana is ridiculously high because Indiana plays a really
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 2: fast offensive style this game, though, I think, you know,
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 2: if it's gonna be higher scoring as well Phoenix LA.
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 2: That is LA's preferred style game, but their defense is bad,
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 2: like you don't usually want to lay points with them.
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I like Phoenix in this one. But obviously
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 2: there are some negatives there that I don't want to
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 2: deal with. Fifty six percent of tickets, fifty eight percent
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Phoenix. But I do think it's
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 2: a sandwich spot for LA plus a re it's an
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 2: injured player spot for Phoenix, So I think there are
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 2: more reasons to like Phoenix than not. But I don't
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 2: want to play them traveling cross country here either, and
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 2: possibly with the kind of lack of rest they have,
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 2: So I'm not gonna do it. But Phoenix plus the
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 2: points would be my lean in that one. All right,
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 2: that's gonna do it. One play today, man, I think
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 2: I'm isolated, but I think it's the best play. I
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 2: think we have the better pitching set up here and
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 2: the better situation. We're gonna play Cleveland Indians in baseball
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 2: on the money line. That's the only play today. Learn
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 2: it tone on Twitter, Learn it toone on Instagram, like
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 2: subscribe to the channel here and I'll have us some
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 2: football content coming up fairly soon. So we've already talked
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 2: about some of the preseason already. Preseason continues on third
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 2: day with like five or six games, so I will
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 2: talk about it. I'm not gonna go into great detail,
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 2: but I usually kind of run down like the quarterback
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 2: rotations and what I think. I never actually give out
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 2: plays in the preseason. I'm not that crazy, although I
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 2: know there are some professionals that do make money by
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 2: doing it, but I just think there's too much unpredictability
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 2: to really want to get involved in it. But yes,
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 2: there's football we're gonna be talking about. Hard Knocks must
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 2: be happening, right, I gotta check that. I always watch
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 2: Hard Knocks, so I gotta check that out. That might
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 2: be happening. I gotta see when the first episode is,
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 2: and maybe it's already aired. It usually ariz on Tuesday, actually,
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 2: so today tonight might be the first episode. I don't
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 2: know who it is or what division. Because they've been
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 2: doing well. They do the divisions during the season, I think,
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 2: but I think the preseason, I think they still follow
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 2: one team. I don't know. I even I'll have to
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 2: see who it is. I have no idea what team
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 2: it even is, so I'll take a look at that.
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 2: We'll say, yeah, I don't know, I'm rambling, but yes,
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 2: like subscribe to the channel here. Football content upcoming for sure,
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 2: uh on Audio, Apple, Spotify, spreaker. That all helps me out.
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 2: To comments here help me out as well. Hype button
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 2: telling people about the show helps me out as well.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 2: We're giving o winners on the show here. Man. We
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 2: had a good day yesterday too, so and like my
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 2: leans were awesome yesterday too for the most part, so
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 2: like to have days like that. Today is not going
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 2: to be like that, probably, but hopefully we get the
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 2: win with the one play I gave out covered in
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 2: You because my yuke channel on YouTube. You can check
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 2: that out Patreon, dot com, slash and learn to toad
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 2: for some extra yuke stuff, mostly the Spotify feed that
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 2: I have up there with my yuke stuff. Or if
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 2: you just want to support me, I mean I appreciate
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 2: that obviously, fund my bad habits, no, because I need
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 2: to make money somehow to live, man, So maybe maybe
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 2: it's worth it. If I'm making you money with these picks,
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 2: why not you know, give something back for it. It's
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 2: a donation. I should sell my picks, man, That's what
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 2: I should do. This information is all free, Holy shit, baby,
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 2: and a lot of work for me to do this
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 2: in the morning. Hell yeah, Loser Cast will be back tonight.
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 2: I gotta figure out my loser pick for I have
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 2: some options for tonight. I'm mulling over. I'm not sure
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 2: it'll be my greatest pick, but I have a few
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 2: ideas for tonight. So check that out. That'll be on
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 2: tonight at ten pm Eastern New York. Giants g Spot
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 2: podcast should be back at some point as well. That's
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 2: gonna do it. I appreciate everybody. Let's have a good Tuesday,
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 2: titty Tuesday, peace Tuesday.
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 1: If the doc starts talking, hand me the phone, that's somebody,
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 1: and so let somebody know.
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 3: You do not have to lose this round lone. Hold
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 3: on hold on nothingnaight not no, hold on, hold on
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 3: let me for you are that bad luck by time,
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 3: but it don't get the crown. Hold on, hold on't
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 3: stay with me, now, hold on hold you're still here.
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 1: No