Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 45 - 5/16/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:19Hello and welcome to episode 45 of the All Systems Go Sports
- 0:24Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
- 0:27I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on?
- 0:33Everyone happy? Thirsty.
- 0:35Thursday. Our work week is winding down.
- 0:37Tomorrow's Friday, then the weekend is here and we got a lot
- 0:40to get to on today's podcast. I have a 5 pack for you.
- 0:43Bust out your hand, you know you got the four fingers and a
- 0:45thumb. We got it all here tonight,
- 0:47guys, including three Major League Baseball bets.
- 0:50All of which are kind of decently short numbers here so
- 0:53hopefully we can get two out of three eek out of profit.
- 0:56Also, the bet in the NBA. Now there's only one NBA bet
- 0:59here for tonight. Or one NBA game.
- 1:01I should say. Nuggets, T Wolves and I got to
- 1:03play on this one. I got an angle here that
- 1:05hopefully we can take advantage of, as well as a juice reel
- 1:07recommendation. And then lastly NHL.
- 1:10We got two big games here tonight, Rangers and Carolina,
- 1:14Edmonton and Vancouver, and I'm going to focus on a total for
- 1:16one of these games. So let's see if we can cash some
- 1:19bets here for today. Now looking back toward
- 1:21yesterday, a little bit of progress after our epically
- 1:24terrible what was that, our Tuesday night?
- 1:27But we did go two and three yesterday -1.56 units so got to
- 1:31continue to keep our heads up and keep banging at the door and
- 1:34hopefully the today's the day we breakthrough.
- 1:37But looking back toward yesterday had a nice hit on the
- 1:40under in the OK C game and was kind of incredible.
- 1:42Now is is really one angle that we talked about on the pod that
- 1:45really came through is not just betting every under in the
- 1:48postseason although that has been profitable about 5354%
- 1:52really focusing on those higher end totals.
- 1:54So higher end total in the regular season is probably 2:30
- 1:58or more in the postseason. Because the style of play,
- 2:01better defense, you tend to see these lower totals just in
- 2:04general. When the what I called a playoff
- 2:07high total of 210 or more go under under 213 last night that
- 2:11would qualify under hit the under when the total is 210 or
- 2:14more. Playoff high total is now 24 and
- 2:171365% this postseason with a 24% ROI.
- 2:22So if you look toward tonight doesn't match with this Nuggets
- 2:26Timberwolves game but keep an eye out for the next two Knicks
- 2:29Pacers. We'll wait to see how the money
- 2:31kind of rolls for that one but that's a 216 which would qualify
- 2:35and then Thunder Nuggets That's sitting around 2:10 at this
- 2:38point. So keep an eye out for that
- 2:40system match moving forward. We also were able to get
- 2:44yesterday. Nice hit with the Philadelphia
- 2:47Phillies. They feel like it feels like
- 2:49they're the one team that you can count on to come through for
- 2:51you. But a Big Ten to five win
- 2:53against the Mets? Now?
- 2:54The frustrating ones with the Dallas Stars 'cause they had a 2
- 2:57to one lead in the second period and then they just completely
- 2:59imploded and Ottinger was complete sieve and gave up a
- 3:02bunch of goals late. Lost that one.
- 3:04The Braves unbelievably beat the closing line on that one.
- 3:07They lose 7 to one. Who saw that one coming?
- 3:09And then the Dodgers. Dodgers where again had some
- 3:12CLV. They lost four to one against
- 3:14San Francisco. So we're going to continue to
- 3:16knock at the door, knock at the door, and then like the kool-aid
- 3:18man, we're going to breakthrough.
- 3:20So let's see if we can have a winning day for today.
- 3:22So let's get right into it. Major League Baseball and what's
- 3:25a very small slate today, there's only six games overall,
- 3:28but got a couple couple angles for today's matchups.
- 3:31Let's start off with the aforementioned Phillies, the
- 3:33team that continues to print winning tickets for us.
- 3:36I'm going right back to the well with Philly today.
- 3:39Now look at the match up here. This is the 4th and final game
- 3:42of a series against the New York Mets.
- 3:44Phillies are three and OI feel like we've been riding them
- 3:46pretty much all season long and they've been coming through, so
- 3:48let's hope that continues tonight.
- 3:50But the pitching match up I think is a big advantage in
- 3:52favor of Philly. You have Jose Cantana going for
- 3:55the Mets. He is one and four with a 5.44
- 3:58ERA. If you look at Taiwan Walker
- 4:00going for Philly three and O 4.82 ERA, he's only made three
- 4:04starts. Phillies won every single one of
- 4:06them. What I like about this one is
- 4:08it's not a huge line move play, but we are starting to see some
- 4:10buy back toward Philly. Like this game opened Philly
- 4:13around a -, 140 home favorite. At one point they got up as high
- 4:17as like -150. Now it's back down to around
- 4:20-140. But now I'm starting to see
- 4:21creep back up closer to -145. So there's been a little bit of
- 4:25back and forth movement, but to me maybe it's not a huge line
- 4:29move play, but it's a big system match play #1 starting with the
- 4:32pitchers, Jose Cantana. I want to bet against Jose
- 4:36Cantana. If you look at what he's done
- 4:38his last two starts, he's gotten absolutely lit up Last two
- 4:42starts, 7.2 innings, pitch 12 earned runs allowed, ERA of
- 4:46around 14. Also he's a big Jekyll and Hyde
- 4:48home Rd. pitcher at home city field.
- 4:50He's been pretty good, 3.18 ERA on the road, 8.2 OERA and he's
- 4:55on the road tonight against the Phillies.
- 4:57And then you combine that with the fact that the Phillies
- 4:59really mashed left-handed pitchers.
- 5:01The Phillies are hitting 268 against lefties this year.
- 5:04That is the 6th best and Major League Baseball.
- 5:07You also look at recent performance.
- 5:08Philly eight and two. Their last ten.
- 5:10They're hitting 275 over that 10 game sample size with an ERA of
- 5:142.67. Complete opposite for the Mets,
- 5:17Three and seven over the last 10, hitting only 219 with a
- 5:204.35. ERAI mentioned the offense here,
- 5:23hopefully an advantage for Philly going up against Kintana.
- 5:26But on the year one of the best offenses in baseball, they're
- 5:28hitting 260 with 51 homers, 232 runs scored.
- 5:33The Mets are only hitting 233 with 42 bombs in 177 runs
- 5:37scored. Also, you mentioned this last
- 5:40Thursday, but chalk seems to do well or tends to do well on
- 5:43Thursday. It's kind of right up there with
- 5:45Saturday as the two best days to go.
- 5:47Favorite favorites on Thursday are 32 and 2062% with a 7% ROI.
- 5:54Also Philly, you know we've seen a lot of these books go from 8
- 5:561/2 down to 8 with the total which would also match our
- 5:59system that we love that favorite with the with the total
- 6:02falling but with those eights a lot of 8 1/2's down to 8 that
- 6:06would qualify as a correlative betting value plan.
- 6:08Philly favorite low total. If your amount of expected run
- 6:11scored more likely to come from quote UN quote, that better team
- 6:15and also you'll get Philly on the year.
- 6:16They've been a great home team. If you're a Philly fan, you love
- 6:19going to Citizens Bank. Ballpark, they're 16 and seven
- 6:21at home. That's the second best record in
- 6:23baseball and in general they're 31 and 13.
- 6:27I believe that's the best record in baseball 71%.
- 6:30You'd be up 9 units betting the Phillies every single game.
- 6:33So it's not a massive 1020 thirty cents team move, but it's
- 6:36either stayed the same or moved toward Philly.
- 6:38And if you're giving me really the best team in baseball at
- 6:40home against a lefty when they match, Lefty is only laying a -,
- 6:44140. I got to take advantage of that
- 6:46guys. I'm going to Philly hopefully to
- 6:48start today with the winner I got the Phills at -140.
- 6:52Keep on cruising Tampa Bay and the Boston Red Sox.
- 6:55Looking for a play here against my Red Sox?
- 6:58I'm going with Tampa Bay now, going to this one.
- 7:00This is the 4th and final game of a four-game series, the Rays
- 7:0322 and 22. They've taken two out of three
- 7:06to start this series. They won four to three yesterday
- 7:09as a + 115 row dog series finale.
- 7:11Tonight the Rays are going with Zach Littell, who's two and two
- 7:15with a three-point O2 ERA Red Sox, meanwhile, who are 22 and
- 7:1821. They're going to go with Cooper
- 7:20Criswell, another righty. He's 2 and 12.1 OERA.
- 7:23So what have you seen across the market here?
- 7:26Well this looks like a sharp play on Tampa Bay because the
- 7:28public is going Red Sox Red Sox at home at Fenway short number
- 7:33How do you not take Boston this game?
- 7:34Open at around Boston, -110 Tampa Bay plus 100.
- 7:38However despite nearly 2/3 of bets going with the Red Sox this
- 7:42line is inching down toward a pick em.
- 7:43A lot of these -1 tens for Boston are down like -1 O 8 -, 1
- 7:48O five. We're basically becoming a pick
- 7:50and play when we open as the Red Sox as a short favorite.
- 7:54So tells me that even though the Publix on Boston, some wise guy
- 7:57money, looks like it's hitting Tampa, moving this game closer
- 8:00toward a pick'em. Now if you look at Tampa Bay in
- 8:02particular, they've really had the Red Sox number over the last
- 8:06three seasons. Tampa Bay is 25 and 10 against
- 8:08Boston, 71%. Small little angle here, nothing
- 8:12huge. But Alex Tosi, who is the home
- 8:14plate umpire, historically, he's favored Rd. teams, he's 54% to
- 8:18the road team, and he's actually kind of a newer umpire.
- 8:21So if you look at the games that he's been a home plate hump for,
- 8:24he's only humped about 75 games or close to 80 games.
- 8:29But you got to think, like, if you're a new UMP, you don't want
- 8:31to be known as, like, you know, just like deferring or, you
- 8:35know, showing favoritism toward the home crowd.
- 8:37Maybe he's intentional, not intentionally, because UMS want
- 8:39to be down in the middle. They all want to be down in the
- 8:41middle. But maybe there's kind of a,
- 8:43hey, like, I'm not just going to, you know, give it to the
- 8:45home team. I want to appear as though I'm
- 8:47unbiased. So maybe that's a little bit of
- 8:49an angle with the road teams. Or why?
- 8:51Maybe you've seen Rd. teams do well when Tosi's behind the
- 8:54bump. Also, I don't really mind the
- 8:57under here if you want to play, if you want to go under 8, it
- 8:59does look pretty sharp. Total open at 8 1/2, it's down
- 9:02to 8. Even touched 7 1/2 earlier today
- 9:05the under is getting 75% of bets but 93% of money.
- 9:09And it's a pretty good low bets, high dollars bet split.
- 9:11And if you look at the forecast, I can tell you I'm about 30
- 9:14minutes away from Fenway Park. It's kind of a wet, kind of
- 9:17gross little bit of a cooler day.
- 9:19It's going to be high 50s, 7 to 10 mile per hour winds blowing
- 9:23in from dead center at Fenway tonight so I lean pretty hard to
- 9:26this under but I'm going to take a shot on Tampa Bay.
- 9:29They'd also be technically they are a dog so divisional dog
- 9:32built in familiarity levels. The playing field benefits the
- 9:36team getting plus money so shop around.
- 9:38I'm going Tampa Bay here guys taking a shot on the Rays.
- 9:41I got Tampa Bay here at basically the pick em price I
- 9:44got. I'm thinking I'm like -1 O3, but
- 9:46let's go raise against my Red Sox then last by the night.
- 9:50This thing is so sharp. I'm taking a shot.
- 9:52Am I confident in this one? No.
- 9:54But I'm staying true to the numbers and hoping that the the
- 9:57market and the wise guys are going to nail it for this one.
- 9:59But Pittsburgh and the Chicago Cubbies.
- 10:02Now this is the first game of four-game series.
- 10:04Pirates are 19 and 25 on the year, but they did just lose two
- 10:08or three against the Brewers. They lost the finale 1:50
- 10:11yesterday as a + 135 Rd. Dog Cubbies 25 and 19.
- 10:15But they also lost two or three against the Braves.
- 10:18Avoided the sweep though with a 7 to one win yesterday, which
- 10:21again was bad for us and those of you like me who were on the
- 10:24the Braves, but they cash as a big plus 160 Rd. dog in
- 10:28tonight's series opener. Pirates are going with Rady
- 10:31Jared Jones who's 2:00 and 4:00, but a pretty respectable 2.68
- 10:35ERA. Cubies are going with Justin
- 10:37Steele O&O 4.73 ERA. Now what have we seen across the
- 10:41market here? Well, the Cubs opened around a
- 10:44-, 135 -, 130 home favorite and the Publix all over the Cubbies.
- 10:49Nearly 75% of bets are going with the Cubs.
- 10:52However, Despite that heavy betting on Chicago, we've seen
- 10:55this line really plummet. Chicago went from -135 all the
- 10:58way down to -120, so that is about a 10/15 cent steam move
- 11:02away from Chicago toward Pittsburgh.
- 11:05It's a really sharp RLM play, reverse line movement when the
- 11:08betting line goes away from the popular side toward the
- 11:11unpopular side. So just the fact that everyone's
- 11:14betting Chicago with the lines dropping tells us some smart
- 11:16money here is getting down on Pittsburgh.
- 11:19Pittsburgh would have good contrarian value, only getting
- 11:21around 25% of bets. But they also have that
- 11:23divisional dog angle built in, familiarity leveling the playing
- 11:26field, and hopefully the the buckles have some good vibes
- 11:30against Steel because they just faced Steel his last time out
- 11:33and they won the game 8:50. Steel got lit up, he only went
- 11:37four innings, gave up six runs, and also keep an eye on the
- 11:40total here. It does look to be juiced up a
- 11:41little, 7 1/2 / -, 115 -, 120 the overs getting 67% of bets
- 11:47but 90% of dollars in the forecast at Wrigley.
- 11:51High 60s but ten mile per hour winds blowing out to dead
- 11:54center. So everyone's betting Chicago,
- 11:56but this line keeps falling. So I got to take a shot here on
- 11:58the Pittsburgh Pirates. Shop around.
- 12:00I got the Pirates at plus one O 5 S Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and
- 12:05Philly. Can we get two out of three and
- 12:07have a profitable baseball day? Fingers crossed.
- 12:10Now over to the NBA. Now we do have only one game
- 12:13here for tonight, and this one's really interesting.
- 12:15Denver and Minnesota. And we've seen a complete flip
- 12:19and the way this series has developed because to start, the
- 12:22T Wolves really were shockingly got up two O Denver looked
- 12:26cooked. You know people are right in the
- 12:27Denver's, Denver's, you know, obituary here.
- 12:30But something changed and it's completely flipped on its head.
- 12:33Denver has now won three straight.
- 12:35Denver is up three to two in the series.
- 12:37Denver is now -450 on the series price Minnesota plus 350.
- 12:42And where am I going tonight? I'm going with the Oakage.
- 12:45Give me the Denver Nuggets plus 2 1/2.
- 12:48Now Right off the bat this line has moved toward Denver.
- 12:50Most of the market opened at Denver +3.
- 12:53Now the line is down to 2 1/2. I see a couple books even
- 12:55hinting at a move down to 2, and that's notable because only 64%
- 12:59of bets, but over 70% of the money is on Denver.
- 13:03So we're checking off line, move, low bets, higher dollars,
- 13:05bet split. In addition to that Mike Conley
- 13:08he was questionable point guard obviously veteran for T Wolves.
- 13:13He looks like he is probable. I heard he's going to give it a
- 13:15go or you know I saw on Twitter with a right soleus strain.
- 13:18But here's a couple angles that I'm going to look look to to
- 13:21Denver. Why I'm taking the points of
- 13:22Denver one is the fact that they've been great ATS as a dog
- 13:26this playoffs. They're three and O as a dog
- 13:28against the spread not only three and OATS but three and O
- 13:31straight up. They got a point and a half
- 13:33against the Lakers on the road and they won 112 to one O 5 in
- 13:37round one and then hopefully history repeats itself.
- 13:40But game 3IN Game 4 at Minnesota, this series, Game
- 13:44three, they were getting 3 1/2, they won 117 to 90.
- 13:47Game four they were getting four.
- 13:49They won 115 to one O 7. So in the spot value play Denver
- 13:53as a dog three and OATS. Also.
- 13:57Here's a little nugget I was reading.
- 13:59I I subscribe to The Athletic and they're pretty pretty good
- 14:01coverage. But every morning I get an
- 14:04e-mail from The Athletic where, you know, it's kind of like a
- 14:07newsletter. They tell you what's going on.
- 14:09Recaps from the previous night and the top of the newsletter, I
- 14:12think it was yesterday was an article about the Denver Nuggets
- 14:16and how they turn the series around.
- 14:18And it was really interesting to me, and it is kind of
- 14:21fascinating here. And it goes into superstitions,
- 14:23not only athletes but betters as well.
- 14:25But after they got down O2 when they were going toward game
- 14:28three in Minnesota, they all went out to dinner at a
- 14:31Minnesota steakhouse. I don't know the name of it, but
- 14:34Eric Gordon couldn't make the dinner.
- 14:37And they, since they've gone to the steakhouse, they number one,
- 14:41haven't allowed Gordon to eat with them.
- 14:44I know this is crazy and he doesn't.
- 14:46It's like a superstition because ever since they had the dinner
- 14:49at the steakhouse, they haven't lost the game.
- 14:51And Gordon, I guess, is OK with it.
- 14:53He understands. It's not like we hate Gordon.
- 14:55He's a bad teammate. It's just, hey, you didn't show
- 14:57up. We went to the steakhouse.
- 14:58We we haven't lost since that time.
- 15:00So they've won three straight. I don't know if they're going to
- 15:03the steakhouse, if they went last night tonight after the
- 15:06game, hopefully. But it's really interesting
- 15:08because as a superstition they're talking about how since
- 15:11that steakhouse that really brought them together and they
- 15:14kind of faced adversity and superstition.
- 15:17Like if you're a sports better and you know you go 5 and O, you
- 15:21probably don't change your your boxers or your briefs.
- 15:23You probably eat the same thing. You know, we all have
- 15:25superstitions, different ways that we think.
- 15:28And the fun thing about superstitions, do they mean
- 15:30anything? Maybe, maybe not.
- 15:32But if they help you win, are you going to argue with it?
- 15:34No. Who's to say it didn't help?
- 15:37Doesn't My wife thinks it's completely ridiculous and has no
- 15:39bearing whatsoever. And she's probably right.
- 15:42But as a superstition, the steakhouse thing, it was really
- 15:45interesting. Article I'd I'd recommend if you
- 15:46have The Athletic. I know they provide the article
- 15:49for the New York Times as well, but give it a read.
- 15:52It was just kind of cool how they've rallied around this like
- 15:54steakhouse. Turn around.
- 15:56I also want to mention a couple opportunities here with Denver.
- 16:00Like if I'm on the Denver series price, I bet them after game one
- 16:03when they lost plus one O 8. I could have gotten a better
- 16:06number after betting them after they lost game two, but they're
- 16:09down O2. I said I'm not going to double
- 16:10down but I'm holding the plus one O 8 series so I'm hoping to
- 16:13cash that. But Denver is now -130 to win
- 16:16the West. I don't think that's a bad
- 16:18price. And if you're looking at an
- 16:19exacta Boston to beat Denver in the finals is plus 275.
- 16:24Denver to beat Boston is plus 3:30.
- 16:27I don't mind a Denver beating Boston.
- 16:29Denver is a tough team facing a lot of adversity.
- 16:32Celtics haven't done well against adversity and they're
- 16:34walking through the Eastern Conference.
- 16:37You want to play one or the other?
- 16:38I don't think it's a bad bet at all.
- 16:40Denver's now plus 255 to win the title.
- 16:43Boston is -130. Let's not get ahead of
- 16:45ourselves. I'm going to take a line move,
- 16:48play and Denver three and O against the spread as a dog
- 16:51three and O since they've barred or banned Aaron Gordon from the
- 16:54steakhouse. I'm going right back to the well
- 16:57with with Denver here tonight. So I'm going Denver, shop
- 17:00around, get the hook. I'm on Denver plus 2 1/2 now to
- 17:04finish out the podcast. We have two bets in the NHL here
- 17:07for tonight, Rangers and Carolina, as well as Edmonton,
- 17:11Vancouver and I'm going to go with a total play.
- 17:14Oh by the way, I wanted to mention this Juice Reel.
- 17:17Juice Reel who does a fantastic job.
- 17:19Before I want to get to hockey I wanted to put this in here.
- 17:22Juice Reel does have a recommendation tonight on
- 17:24Denver. They say take the points with
- 17:26Denver. They're AI Bot Robo Jackson.
- 17:29So of course if you haven't done it yet, I would love for you to
- 17:31sign up for a Juice Reel 7 day free trial.
- 17:34You can sign up by just clicking the link in the bio of this
- 17:37podcast. I also have a bunch of tweets on
- 17:39my Twitter page about it at Josh under score Insights.
- 17:42But I but I love the fact that the AI AI backed bot also likes
- 17:46Denver tonight. So hey, that's a good thing.
- 17:48I'll take it Now to the NHL Rangers.
- 17:51Carolina, Edmonton, Vancouver. I'm going to focus on Rangers
- 17:54Carolina Now this is back in Carolina.
- 17:57The Rangers are up three to two. Remember, the Rangers are up
- 18:00three. O Carolina is looking to force a
- 18:02game seven series price now Rangers -240.
- 18:06Carolina plus 200. I don't hate that series price
- 18:09because tonight Carolina is like a -, 165 home favorite.
- 18:13But I'm going to focus on the total for this one.
- 18:15Rangers and Carolina. I'm going to go under 5 1/2.
- 18:18So first thing I notice about this one is it's very juiced up
- 18:20under 5 1/2, under -115 -, 120. Really any book you look at,
- 18:26it's painted. And painted basically means no
- 18:29matter what book you look at, they're all basically leaning
- 18:32juice wise in the same direction.
- 18:34So liability under #2 is a pretty good bet split only 35%
- 18:39bets, but nearly 50% of the money is on the under, telling
- 18:42us the bigger sharper wagers are on the under.
- 18:44Let's look at the goaltenders. Chesterkin this post season 2.3
- 18:49three goals against 924 save percentage.
- 18:52Frederick Anderson expected to go for Carolina 2.46 goals
- 18:55against 9O2 save percentage. So both goalies been pretty
- 18:59good. Both defenses have been really
- 19:01top 10 defenses in the NHL all season long.
- 19:04Top seven Technically Carolina's 4th and fewest goals allowed.
- 19:082.76 a game. Rangers are seventh, only giving
- 19:11up 2.57. But really the angle here for me
- 19:15while I'm taking the under is a great system.
- 19:18Match on game six and in particular Game 7 unders Now.
- 19:21The style of play, games one through 5 versus 6 and seven,
- 19:24it's totally different early in the series.
- 19:26Maybe you take more chances, maybe it's a feeling out
- 19:28process. You're not faced with
- 19:30elimination. You feel like hey, you win, you
- 19:32lose. It's a long series.
- 19:33When you get to game six and seven, that's really when you
- 19:37kind of buckle down, play really good defence, don't take as many
- 19:41chances because you don't want to screw up and make a mistake
- 19:43and give a breakaway the other way.
- 19:45So you play a little more conservative, you're facing
- 19:47elimination and style of play is really tight checking.
- 19:51So that's why we've seen game six and seven and Game 7 is
- 19:55really the, you know, the Holy Grail of unders.
- 19:57But it's a huge difference here in terms of taking the under.
- 20:01Now if you look at games one through five since 2017, the
- 20:05under is about 5050. It's basically like 51% to the
- 20:08under. When you get to game six or
- 20:11seven, the under since 2017 jumps up to 57 percent, 54 and
- 20:1640. When the total is 5 1/2 it jumps
- 20:19up to 58%. So that really tells us that
- 20:22again the style of play really benefits and leads to lower
- 20:26scoring games. Also if you look at this year in
- 20:28particular, game six unders this post season are three and O The
- 20:32Bruins in Toronto under 5 1/2 that was a 2 to one game.
- 20:36Vegas and Dallas under 5 1/2 that was a 2 nothing game.
- 20:40Nashville and Vancouver under 5 1/2 that was a one nothing game.
- 20:44So hopefully we have another one of those low scoring.
- 20:47You know, two to 1/3 to 2/1, nothing 3:00 to 1:00.
- 20:52I'll even go 4:00 to 1:00 as long as we get.
- 20:54Or how about 5? Nothing.
- 20:55Doesn't matter as long as it's under 5 1/2.
- 20:57So juiced up, good bet, split, good goalies, good defense game,
- 21:026/7 under system match. I'm taking a shot on Rangers
- 21:05Carolina under 5 1/2. Now that about does it for
- 21:10today's podcast. Here Episode 45 of all systems
- 21:13Go powered by rhythm. Now if you enjoy the pod, if the
- 21:16pod has helped you to become a sharper better.
- 21:19If you have learned a thing or two from listening to the
- 21:21podcast. Maybe you've learned how to read
- 21:24line movement a little bit better.
- 21:25How to locate sharp action, how to interpret bet splits, how to
- 21:28take advantage of betting system matches.
- 21:30How to play you know strict bankroll management, discipline
- 21:34bankroll management versus parlaying everything if any of
- 21:37the aspects of the pod whether you tail fade or maybe don't
- 21:41play every bet. I personally, if I mention it, I
- 21:44have my own skin in the game and I have action on it.
- 21:46But whether you pick and choose, whether you want to just listen
- 21:48to a breakdown and maybe pick one or two bets.
- 21:51First off, thank you for listening.
- 21:52I'm just lucky enough to host this pod but it really means a
- 21:55lot to me that you guys TuneIn and grind with me and with these
- 21:59plays and approach betting from a data-driven perspective.
- 22:02But after I want to say first thank you.
- 22:05Secondly, can you help me grow this podcast?
- 22:07There's something very simple and easy you can do to help me
- 22:10grow this pod. One is keep listening and
- 22:12recommend it to a friend. But #2, can you give this pod a
- 22:16five star review, whether it's Spotify or iTunes with Apple,
- 22:20give it five stars. That'll help us to rise up the
- 22:22charts and grow organically would really go a long way.
- 22:25It's helping this pod expand and grow.
- 22:27Secondly, if you want to learn more about how to be a
- 22:31data-driven sports better, how to go contrarian, how to read
- 22:34line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet
- 22:36in person or online, how to shop for the best line specific
- 22:40systems and tips on all the major sports, Well, guess what?
- 22:43I wrote a book. Yes, I did.
- 22:45I'm very happy and very proud of it.
- 22:47But my book is called The Everything Guide to Sports
- 22:49Betting. So if you want to buy a copy for
- 22:51you or for a friend, that buddy of yours who parlays everything.
- 22:55Or maybe there is a family member or a friend or a Co
- 22:58worker or a colleague who is new into sports betting.
- 23:02Or maybe they're in a newly legalized state.
- 23:04Or maybe you just want to, you know, give him a tip here on how
- 23:07to be a day driven better. If you want to buy my book, it
- 23:10would mean the world to me. It would really, really, I'd
- 23:11really appreciate it. And it's not just a charity
- 23:13favor to make me happy. You're going to learn more about
- 23:16sports betting because of it. So go to Amazon.com, type in the
- 23:19everything Guide to sports betting.
- 23:21Pick one up for you or for a friend or a family member.
- 23:24And when I meet you at the book, we are going to shake hands.
- 23:27I'm going to sign the my signature, my John Hancock on
- 23:30that book and then we're going to get a couple drinks and sweat
- 23:33some Sharp Contrary and plays together and hopefully cash some
- 23:35tickets. Lastly, have you taken advantage
- 23:39of Rhythm or Juice Reel? Well I hope you have but if not
- 23:43I would love for you guys to sign up for a free seven day
- 23:46trial of Rhythm or Juice Reel. Remember Rhythm is fantastic
- 23:50when it comes to AI backed data-driven player props or
- 23:55pics. They just added WNBA.
- 23:57They have golf as well. MLMLB should be coming out next
- 24:01year. They have NFL.
- 24:01They have a lot of the major sports, not all of them, because
- 24:04they're still relatively new and they don't want to put out a
- 24:06sport what what they haven't really back tested yet and
- 24:08they're not really like proud of and confident in.
- 24:11So people keep asking me like, you know, when will they have
- 24:13you know MLB, it's coming, but take advantage.
- 24:16Right now all you have to do is click that link in the bio of
- 24:19this pod or again visit my Twitter page or the ASG Twitter
- 24:22page at under score. ASG under Score Podcast and sign
- 24:26up for a rhythm seven day pre trial.
- 24:28Again, if you like golf, now there's a golf tournament going
- 24:31on right now. The AI Caddy is really cool.
- 24:33You can actually bet hole to hole.
- 24:35So it's really, really interesting and really helpful.
- 24:37And again, sign up for Juice Reel as well.
- 24:39Juice Reel does a great job syncing your sports books.
- 24:42You can track your performance, learn about yourself as a better
- 24:45they have the Robo Jackson recommended best bets each day.
- 24:49The sharp mush plays as well and you're going to be able to take
- 24:52advantage of arbitrage bets as well.
- 24:54Basically no risk bets where you play 2 numbers on the kind of
- 24:58the opposite sides of a bet. But based upon what you risk and
- 25:01what you stand to win, you can guarantee yourself, You know, 4
- 25:04bucks, 8 bucks maybe get get yourself a free coffee thanks to
- 25:07Juice Reel. But that about does it,
- 25:09everyone. My parting words as always,
- 25:11whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
- 25:14Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan
- 25:17Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
- 25:20Park Casino, R.E.M. Jam Springfield and my neck of
- 25:23the woods in Massachusetts. We're out in the desert where
- 25:26the true grinders get down. Where Billy Walters sends his
- 25:28number runners where lowest choose possible is found at the
- 25:30South point or sweating sharp contrain plays jumping in the
- 25:33stadium swim pool when OKC under caches at Circa, wherever it may
- 25:38be. You're going to walk up to me.
- 25:39You're going to show me a Philly's ticket.
- 25:42An OKC under ticket also. Maybe you had a better day than
- 25:44what I mentioned earlier. If you took the White Sox
- 25:47earlier in the day yesterday, that was a sharp report play as
- 25:49well. But guess what?
- 25:50First one's on me, Next one's on you.
- 25:52We're going to post about the book.
- 25:53Sweat sharp. Contrarian plays all night long,
- 25:56so wish you the best of luck. Everyone enjoy your Thursday.
- 25:59Stay sharp, Stay contrarian. Bet against the public.
- 26:02Place yourself on the side of the house.
- 26:04Always be with the sharp money, Never against it.
- 26:06Will smart money. One every time?
- 26:08Of course not. We're beating closing lines
- 26:10quite a bit this week, but we're not getting the breaks that we
- 26:12deserve, so we're going to keep with it, Stick with it, and if
- 26:15we can, find that sweet spot for your list.
- 26:16But disciplined bankroll management against the public,
- 26:19with the house, with the pros? Flat bet, avoid parlays and get
- 26:23that CLV. We're going to be OK long term
- 26:26so enjoy the sweats. Everyone will be back at it
- 26:28tomorrow for episode 46 of the All Systems Go pod presented by
- 26:32rhythm and I'm excited because we do have another weekend of
- 26:36biting. So UFC, hopefully have a
- 26:39data-driven play for you tomorrow on the pod for a big
- 26:43UFC weekend, but enjoy the sweats.
- 26:45Everyone have a great Thursday, Thursday.
- 26:47I will see you tomorrow and hopefully you can cash some
- 26:49tickets here tonight. Good luck and I'll see you guys
- 26:52for Friday.