Latest / Financial Survival Network / Unlocking Wealth in Uncertain Times: Jay Martin Shares Commodity Investment Strategies #5939
Transcript
- 0:00The broad equity market in the United States has been such a favorable game for
- 0:03the last twelve years. Why would you look for value at unloved industries right,
- 0:07Why would you look towards the commodity sector. And so as a consequence
- 0:10of that, that sector has been starved of cash and that just means we're
- 0:14locking the supply that we need to meet demand. And you know, there's
- 0:18a lot of conversations around okay, but we're looking at maybe a pretty severe
- 0:22recession, maybe a globally coordinator recession, and what will that do to the
- 0:26demand for commodities? And it's a really important question to ask. You are
- 0:29listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you just
- 0:35can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial
- 0:41Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get
- 0:47your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Welcome
- 0:57you are watching and listening to the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,
- 1:00Kerrie Lutz. Well got a new guest today, somebody who I have run
- 1:06into a number of times over the years, never really connected with you know,
- 1:10well, Jay Martin, the best place to find them at this particular
- 1:12moment is the Commodity University dot com. And you know, I'm from Cambridge
- 1:19House, from the Virick, the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. Jay. Really
- 1:25glad that we got this opportunity to connect here and to talk about what's going
- 1:30on in the world, why commodities are the place to be, especially with
- 1:34what's heading down the path. Hey, what's your take on where the world
- 1:38is at right now and especially commodities. Hey, well, Kerrie, first,
- 1:44thanks for having me on. I'm excited to chat with you, and
- 1:46it's good to be here. That's a colossal question. You just do act
- 1:51Where is the world? Edit? Now, let's do it, man,
- 1:53let's do it. It's because you know, it plays into my commodities thesis.
- 1:57I suppose it's too major trends that I'm watching you're probably watching the same
- 2:01too. And the first one is, you know, we're in this transition
- 2:05at a high level. Some people call it deglobalization, so im to look
- 2:07at the de dollarization. So I'm just looking at the fracturing of various geopolitical
- 2:12relationships. But inevitably, I think we're heading from one era that we've existed
- 2:16in for my entire life, which is the era of increased globalization, which
- 2:21has just meant more sharing of goods and raw materials wide, a variety of
- 2:24access to products and services at cheaper and cheaper prices. I mean, that's
- 2:29what opening up a global marketplace does. It creates abundance pretty much everywhere you
- 2:34look. And I don't think that trend of increased abundance is over, but
- 2:38I think that this decade is going to be going to continue to be a
- 2:43massive hiccup along the way, and largely because that that era of trust that
- 2:49we've existed in for the last forty years is over. The trust has been
- 2:52shattered and we will not be sharing raw materials the way we were over the
- 2:57previous twenty thirty and even forty years. Is a handful of directions and reasons
- 3:01you could point to. I mean, the hot wars kind of explain it
- 3:04all. But we've been in We've been at war for a lot longer than
- 3:07the hot wars in Europe in the Middle East, right. If you think
- 3:09about the economic wars, trade wars, currency wars, a theme that doctor
- 3:14Pipa. Malmgrid covers in depth is the hot war in cold places, which
- 3:19doesn't get a lot of media attention. But this is the satellite wars that
- 3:22have been occurring between Russia, China, and the United States. Fascinating by
- 3:25the way, if your audience is key to take a look into that concept
- 3:28of the hot war and cold places. But this is literal warfare that's been
- 3:31occurring in outer space. For example, Russia blowing up their own satellites with
- 3:38the intention of scattering debris fields through various orbits, making them inaccessible to American
- 3:45satellites. That crazy stuff like this, you know North Stream too. If
- 3:47another example, well, the hot war in cold places, that one got
- 3:51a lot more media attention. But you know what that concept refers to is
- 3:54the infrastructure war that's been occurring deep sea and then space on technology infrastructure.
- 4:01Anyways, now we're in the Hallware era. It's real now, you know,
- 4:04it's tanks, it's guidance, and it bleeds, it leads. Now
- 4:06the media is covering it excessively. And how this factors into my commodity thesis
- 4:13carry is just that we've had a pretty predictable supply of pretty much everything we've
- 4:17needed. Right for my entire life back to that whatever it was you wanted,
- 4:21whatever raw material, if you have the cash or the credit, you
- 4:25could go to the global marketplace and seek that out build whatever you needed,
- 4:29blot material from wherever you want it. That era is the era that's over
- 4:32and in this new paradigm. And I don't think we know exactly how the
- 4:35cards going to fall yet. I don't think it's going to be simple,
- 4:39you know, fast or easy to predict. But what I do know is
- 4:42that countries will be a lot more guarded with the resources they have, and
- 4:46they'll be a lot more guarded with who to sell and those resources too,
- 4:48And they'll be a lot more specialized with the deals they're doing between allies or
- 4:53adversaries. You know, China selling or sorry, Russia selling natural gas to
- 4:58China at fifty percent the cost they'll sell to Europe this winter, for example.
- 5:01Right we're seeing lots of deals like this occur, and that just means
- 5:05that the supply of copper, the supply of nickel, the supply of energy,
- 5:10all this stuff isn't as secure as it was three years ago. When
- 5:14something becomes less secure, less abundant, the value goes up and that's the
- 5:18air that we're in today, where the value of every input that we require
- 5:23to build and grow our economies will go up because our source of that supply
- 5:27has become volatile, vulnerable, and unpredictable. All right, So I see
- 5:31an investment thesis emerging from this. And I do agree with you that I
- 5:38got a couple more years on you, and I'm a boomer, and we've
- 5:42had the best of everything during my brief lifetime on the planet here from the
- 5:47time, you know, in the fifties to present. But yeah, I
- 5:53see what you're saying. You know, one thing find quite disturbing. The
- 5:57middle class in America. There was something sixty somewhat million families. Now it's
- 6:01fifty something million. It's a huge decline. That never saw anything like that
- 6:09in my lifetime. You know, since since the beginning the dawn of the
- 6:15twentieth century, the middle class has only increased, and now we see it
- 6:19reversing. And this is happening in countries all over the planet, especially in
- 6:26the emerging economies, places like China, where really the economic growth, however
- 6:32it occurred, and we could debate to whether it's depth driven and inflation driven
- 6:39and all that but the net result was a lot more people were living a
- 6:43lot better of their caloric intake. You know, you could debate the quality
- 6:48of the food, but they were getting you know, food was more abundant
- 6:53than ever before, feeding all these people. And now this is all,
- 6:58like you said, kind of come to an end, and we're entering unshorted
- 7:03territory. And then add the hot wars into that, which are huge generators
- 7:09of inflation and commodity consumption, because what do you do. You take commodities,
- 7:14you make weapons, and you blow up a capital. On the other
- 7:17side, you destroy capital. That's what wars do. And it's great for
- 7:23the defense industry. It's not so great for the rest of us, though,
- 7:26is it. No, No, it's not. You know, we
- 7:29sometimes mistake wars as being GDP boosters because for a minute, they look like
- 7:34it, But because of the destructive nature of wars, they actually destroy a
- 7:39lot more than they produce, as you mentioned, so in the long term
- 7:42they're far from the opposite of GDP boasters. And the second thread that's pushing
- 7:48on that commodity gas pedal is the fact that capital has been super scarce in
- 7:54that industry for the last twelve years. I mean, if you wanted to
- 7:57generate easy capital gains, you could just throw money at the tech growth stocks.
- 8:01For the last decade plus, that game has been so easy. And
- 8:03that's a brief window of time the grand scale of history. But you know,
- 8:07in terms of recency bias, it seems like forever that that game would
- 8:11continue forever. And so because the broad equity market in the United States has
- 8:16been such a favorable game for the last twelve years, why would you look
- 8:20for value at unloved industries right, why would you look towards the commodity sector.
- 8:24And so as a consequence of that, that sector has been starved of
- 8:26cash and that just means we're locking the supply that we need to meet demand.
- 8:31And you know, there's a lot of conversations around okay, but we're
- 8:35looking at maybe a pretty severe recession, maybe a globally coordinator recession, and
- 8:39what will that do to the demand for commodities? And it's a really important
- 8:43question to ask. And all I can do on that front is look at
- 8:46history and say, well, historically, what have depressions and recessions done to
- 8:50demand? And if you look at oil demand, for example, over the
- 8:54last fifteen years, you'll see two really important events, one being the two
- 8:58thousand and eight financial crisis, second being twenty twenty, when we literally locked
- 9:01everybody in their houses, landed airplanes, shuttered hotels, parked cruise ships,
- 9:07we paused the economy. You would expect that in that scenario where you pause
- 9:11the economy in twenty twenty, that oil demand might fall. You know,
- 9:16twenty percent, thirty percent, forty percent wouldn't be a stretch, but afelt
- 9:20eight percent, single digit one. You're only bounced back in twenty twenty one
- 9:24without fail. You think back to or you look back to the two thousand
- 9:28and eight financial crisis. This is the great financial crisis at my lifetime.
- 9:31Yet, if you look at oil demand, it fell by slightly over one
- 9:37percent in two thousand and eight, and jump right back on track in two
- 9:39thousand and nine. If you if you zoom out and look at a ten
- 9:43year trend, you don't even notice it. It's not even a blip on
- 9:46the radar. And so you know, I think about that when I hear
- 9:50the arguments about demand destruction in response to recessionary events, like do I think
- 9:54we're heading for a deeper recession? I do? I think things you're going
- 9:58to get. I think the question like are we headed for a session is
- 10:01ridiculous because we're there, we can be of metrics that kind of provide evidence.
- 10:05I don't know what people are waiting for, as if they need see
- 10:09an end to provide affirmation that yes, we are. It's like, we
- 10:11get through this, man, It's easy. But having said that, like,
- 10:16you know, history tells me that demand destruction isn't nearly as dramatic as
- 10:20some pundits claim it to be or forecast it to be. So, you
- 10:24know, the startation of capital, the perpetually increase in demand as human beings
- 10:28continue to grow and progress sets us up. You know, this is a
- 10:31decade a return to value in the equity markets, I believe, away from
- 10:35specuative growth and a return to value and yield and common sense. You can
- 10:39only hope, you know. But at the same time, where we need
- 10:43you know, we've got the so called green dream economy, We've got an
- 10:48energy transition that I do believe is eventually going to take place. I don't
- 10:54believe that governments can force it like they're trying now. I think it will
- 10:58only lead to disaster and then and to some extent the environmental movement, which
- 11:05to some of the things we've had in the past. It's probably a somewhat
- 11:09reasonable response to a point. But now the very materials that we need to
- 11:16get this grain economy, the very things that we need to make the energy
- 11:22transition happen, all of these forces are fighting against it, even though this
- 11:28is supposedly what they're espousing. They're pushing for electrification, and yet hey,
- 11:35try go getting a permit for a copper mine, right, yeah, try
- 11:39You know, we got the IRA Act, and it's thrown billions upon billions
- 11:43of dollars at this sector to anybody with a trough willing to suck it up.
- 11:48But I don't see results yet, do you. No. No,
- 11:52And investors are catching onto that. You know. I just pulled out actually
- 11:56one of my more recent newsletters, because there's a couple of quotes I threw
- 11:58in there exactly in response to how Yesg's kind of pivoted Kerrie in the last
- 12:03really only like a couple of years. So you know, in twenty twenty
- 12:07one, for example, forty eight percent of investors were not convinced by ESG.
- 12:13Claims that numbers now up to sixty one percent. This is investor is
- 12:16just no longer believing in the promises made by corporates or governments. One and
- 12:20the same the responsible investment category. So our record drawdowns of half a billion
- 12:26dollars in twenty twenty three, I mean, capital is exiting the space.
- 12:28But it's not hard to understand why, right, you could make these promises
- 12:33of energy transition, and it's easy to agree with. So, yes,
- 12:37we need a clean, emissions free source renewable power. We need to protect
- 12:43the habitat, you know, and I'm all for that. I've got three
- 12:45young kids. I spent a lot of my life in very remote small town
- 12:48surrounded by beautiful wilderness, like quite intimately connected with what we stand to lose
- 12:54if we don't take care of the environment. But to say that we need
- 12:56to transition to renewable power, that's something we can in all agree. Way
- 13:00to think through step two is where not what he seems to be going.
- 13:03It's like, Okay, how do we build that infrastructure? Where are those
- 13:07materials going to come from? Do we expect that the same crowds of protesters
- 13:11who are trying to who are pounded at table saying leave it in the ground
- 13:15right, band, fossil fuels outright, all this stuff. Are they suddenly
- 13:18going to turn the side around it? On that side, it says,
- 13:20and permit every mind globally because we need the copper, the nickel, the
- 13:24lipy and the cobalt that we don't have today. Like that's not going to
- 13:26happen, right, And so nobody wants to think the step two the strategy.
- 13:30I mean, setting a goal is fun, it's exciting, right,
- 13:33creating the vision like that's we can get behind that, but doing the work
- 13:37like the important part. Now we're there, that's where we are now.
- 13:39And it's no surprise that it's sort of being blown off as the smoke with
- 13:43which it was. And so I'm not shocked. I think probably, like
- 13:48you, we know, we were waiting for this event to occur because you
- 13:52know, it's easy for a politician to promise something in twenty thirty five.
- 13:56They're not going to have to keep that promise, right, somebody else's so
- 13:58it might be good bye, them will be dead at least wine we all,
- 14:03yeah, for sure, we got only hope. But yeah, so
- 14:07yeah, and I think this is uh, you know, those narratives sell
- 14:13really well in bull markets and strong economic times. It's not a surprise to
- 14:18me that has things have become tougher, debt's become more expensive, credits become
- 14:24twier, liquidity is drying up, that suddenly the ESG hype is dissipating in
- 14:28tandem. It's not a surprise to me at all, which is why energy
- 14:31transitions need to be dictated. I'm speaking my opinion here. They need to
- 14:37be dictated and implemented by the market, not by governments. Once upon the
- 14:43time in New York City, you know, you'd go downtown and before there
- 14:46were cars, and there was mountains of the horsemen were there, and it
- 14:50was disease outbreaks all over the place. And then we got the car and
- 14:56all of that went away. But then the car, the automobile, the
- 15:00transportation mass transit sector brought a whole bunch of other problems, but they weren't
- 15:05as bad as problems that they replaced. There was improvement. And it's that
- 15:11failure to grasp history of how we got where we are that makes it impossible
- 15:18for these so called planners to actually have a vision for the future. They
- 15:24don't, which is why the market. You know, I'm a libertarian at
- 15:28heart, and a free market proponent to a point. You know, this
- 15:35is why we're in this situation and why it's probably going to lead to disaster
- 15:39here, Jay, on so many fronts. Maybe, yeah, I'm a
- 15:43short term I think it's going to be rough. The horse maneuver crisis is
- 15:46such a great example because we're really challenged and we try to think through you
- 15:52know, long term future. We all factor in innovation, right, and
- 15:56technological improvements. I think during that crisis, the economists of the day and
- 16:02the city planners, by the way, we're just predicting that New York was
- 16:04going to be buried under ten feet of horse manure within fifty years. It
- 16:07was the doom and story, right. It was thee You know, it's
- 16:11actually like remarkably similar to the climate conversations we hear today about the inevitable doom
- 16:18and gloom that's maybe fifty years away from us. Right. It was the
- 16:22exact same narrative, different enemy, same results, and innovation took us out
- 16:26of it. Right. And you can say, oh, but cars are
- 16:29way dirty. The horses not in that number, right. Not when you
- 16:32were shuffling your feet through, you know, eighteen inches of horse manure,
- 16:34you get down on New York City Street, and all kinds of diseases were
- 16:38born out of that. And you know, the medicine didn't exist to treat,
- 16:42and so it was actually a very unsanitary way to live and it needed
- 16:45to be solved. And sure enough, you know, eventually it was solved,
- 16:49and we'll solve this too. Like, you know, it's easy to
- 16:52get really down on things carried because of how dire the economic outlook is,
- 16:56because of how irresponsible our government lead are. You know, we live in
- 17:00in solvent countries. It's like, how is this sustainable? All this stuff
- 17:03right, and it's it's easy to get get it bail like desire. But
- 17:07you know, long term, I'm an optimist. I'm long human ingenuity in
- 17:11progress, you know, and if you look at the long trend, it's
- 17:14hard not to be right. But there's volatility along the way. You know,
- 17:18there's always periods of reset in anything, right, Like, so we
- 17:22were talking about the commodity cycle that I think we're both played a line that
- 17:26our thesis there and I'm bullet commodities this decade. Like I'm not a short
- 17:30term guy. I'm a long term value investor. Having said that, you
- 17:33know, when you see these long term secular bull trends, nothing goes up
- 17:37in a straight line because there's two factors of play. There's the long term
- 17:41starvation of capital geopolitical shocks, and this is going to create the commodity supercycle.
- 17:48But along the way, traders get in there and the overbuy and the
- 17:49over sell, the overbuy and the over cell and so you know, you
- 17:52got to ride those waves if you were in copper, if you're in energy,
- 17:56if you're in gold, whatever it is. Because you know, twenty
- 17:59twenty was a crazy easy, hot gold market, right, and it's been
- 18:02pretty tough ever since. And we throw our hands with that, like the
- 18:04market's over No no, no, no, no no. This is how
- 18:07this is how secular bull markets work. Right, they're super hot for a
- 18:10period, and then they're super cool for a period. Right, Things get
- 18:12overbought, they get over sold, and then the puck rotates. Right.
- 18:15So you know, a commodity supercycle expands beyond just metals. I mean,
- 18:19if you look at a three year chart of live cattle futures, it's like
- 18:22the hottest chart in the world. Right, greens had its turn. Energy
- 18:26has been hot and cooled off it's hot again, right, uranium's firing now.
- 18:30But you know it's not all systems go at the same time, right,
- 18:32And so it's hard to time markets, like I don't even try.
- 18:34I don't think anybody can, to be honest with you. And so if
- 18:37you acknowledge that you can time markets, but you believe in the big picture
- 18:41trend of where the world's going because it's hard to predict you know, what
- 18:45the world's going to look like in a quarter, or like what are interest
- 18:48rate's going to be? And I don't know, But you can make some
- 18:49assumptions about what the world's going to look like in ten years, And that's
- 18:52actually an easier game to play because those big trends they're far less volatile,
- 18:56and they're they're like the big supertanker this point in one direction and you know
- 19:00those little waves along the way. But to try to visualize how the world
- 19:03may function in a decade is actually an easier game to play than trying to
- 19:07predict markets over the course of six months. So let's distance ourselves from that
- 19:11and say, you know, if you're a long term value investor, then
- 19:14make that bet and then be called out of your time horizon. I'll protect
- 19:18your emotional state from the short term volatility. When when a period like now,
- 19:22if you're a metals investor and liquidity is non existent and prices are depressed,
- 19:26sixty seventy eighty percent, can be pretty tough out there, right,
- 19:30So you got to like, you got to step back and say, what's
- 19:32my time arising? What's my time rising? Very important question to ask.
- 19:36And the experts are always wrong, all right, Going back to what you
- 19:40were saying, Like oil, we were supposed to be out of the stuff
- 19:42by now, Joe Jay, hey mean, and we're supposed to run out
- 19:47of oil now. We're producing more than ever before in the United States.
- 19:52Even with the administration's anti petroleum policies, which are clearly enunciated and being brought
- 19:59into play, the United States is still producing record amounts. I read the
- 20:03other day thirteen million barrels a day of oil. When I was a kid,
- 20:10it was about six or seven million barrels. And that number would go
- 20:14even higher if the government would get out of the way. But you know,
- 20:18this is what I need about the market being responsible to figure out what
- 20:22we're using. Because back when they had the orismon or crisis in Manhattan.
- 20:27Nobody was thinking of the automobile, but there it was. It appeared just
- 20:32when we needed it and took us out of it. So looking ahead in
- 20:36that ten years, precious metals, we're going to see them rapidly accelerate at
- 20:41some point or is it boom and bust kind of like it's been since I
- 20:48since I bought my first ounce of gold. Yeah, it's a good question.
- 20:52I it's a good place to be, Okay. So here's how I
- 20:55think about that. Here's how I answer that question. Again. I can't
- 20:57find markets and I don't try. A game that every investor can play is
- 21:02you can identify when things are cheap and when they're expensive. And that should
- 21:06be our mission as investors to buy things when they become cheap and sell those
- 21:10things when they become expensive. So when I look at the precious metals equities
- 21:15right now, I'm buying companies that are in production, that are cash flow
- 21:18positive, that have great management teams. And I define great management by saying,
- 21:23as CEO who's built and sold a couple goal mining companies, I mean
- 21:26these companies are at massive discounts to what they're trading at twelve months twenty four
- 21:32and even thirty months ago, and I could walk in and build my position
- 21:36in these companies right now again, cash flowing, profitable companies, sustainable business
- 21:40models with no competition in the open market. Now, whenever I'm purchasing an
- 21:45equity in anything, a question I like to ask myself is I acknowledge that
- 21:49I'm having a disagreement with somebody? Right because it's a marketplace. If I'm
- 21:53buying somebody selling, that means that person and I are having a disagreement.
- 21:57So if you're buying, you know, Nvidia shares or Tesla, you know,
- 22:00when you're on the open market picking up shares, you go out to
- 22:03acknowledge that somebody's on the other side of that transaction. And while you are
- 22:06buying because you believe that stock is undervalued and going to go up, somebody
- 22:10else is saying, no, I think it's overvalue and it's going to go
- 22:11down, So I'm going to sell. Then you're going to buy. So
- 22:15you disagree with somebody, can you tell me what you know that the seller
- 22:19doesn't. What is your competitive advantage in that transaction? Because you're squaring off
- 22:23with somebody right now, Like, what do you know that they don't.
- 22:26And if you can't answer that question, think very thoroughly about whether you should
- 22:29be engaging in this, because otherwise you just walk it in blind. This
- 22:33is fomo buying, this is price chase. It's a horrible strategy. So
- 22:37with those mid tier gold producers that I was just talking about, you know,
- 22:40ask myself that same question. Right. So, I'm in the market
- 22:41right now building a position. Somebody is selling to me, why are they
- 22:45selling? And I've been in this game long enough to know exactly why.
- 22:48These are individuals who saw how hot the market was the gold market in twenty
- 22:52twenty continued into twenty twenty one. They piled in, thinking that rally was
- 22:57going to continue for years. Didn't. So in twenty two they saw,
- 23:02you know, a thirty percent fifty percent draw down, or maybe in twenty
- 23:04twenty one they saw twenty percent draw it out, and they're like, ooh,
- 23:07I'm not taking a loss. I'll wait this out till the market recovers.
- 23:11Then in twenty twenty two they're down fifty percent and they're like, I'm
- 23:12not taking it fifty percent cut. I'll wait till the market recovers. Now
- 23:15it's twenty twenty three and they're down sixty percent, seventy percent. But what's
- 23:22happening today is that look like auto loan delinquencies are creeping out towards all time
- 23:26highs. People can't make their car payments. Mortgage delinquencies creeping out towards all
- 23:30time highs, people can't pay their mortgages. New credit card application rejections are
- 23:36at all time highs. People seeking out new debt and they're not getting it.
- 23:40Consumers are squeezed. Those consumers are retail investors who need capital because for
- 23:45the reasons we just mentioned, loan payments, credit access, all this stuff,
- 23:48they're priced out of their monthly budget and so they need cash. And
- 23:52now they'll take liquidity at any price meeting. They'll take that eighty percent draw
- 23:56down because maybe they bought twenty thousand dollars an XYZ company, it's only worth
- 24:00four thousand today, but they really need to have four thousand dollars, so
- 24:03they'll take my bid, you know, And that's it's predatory, but that's
- 24:07capitalism. And this is when you need to be bold and move in and
- 24:10do this because that's the selling motivation. Right now, these individuals who have
- 24:12banned the market for eighteen months, twenty four months, thirty months, and
- 24:17they got it. They got to hit the bid now because they're running a
- 24:18cash So that's our opportunity is as contrarian investors. That's why you run into
- 24:23the fire, because you know the house is on fire right now. You
- 24:27know that's what It takes great heat. And we also have the fact that
- 24:32the markets at any given time, at any given moment, are dominated by
- 24:37the short term buyers and sellers, right the institutions who by nature really cannot
- 24:44take a longer term perspective. Yes, there are funds that take a longer
- 24:48term perspective, but the traders out there, they're all short term and they're
- 24:52looking for immediate profits. So that's where we as longer term investors, don't
- 24:59have have to be swayed by that, and we can actually capitalize on what
- 25:03for them is short term better knowledge than you and I can ever have,
- 25:07because they know who's buying and who's selling, and where all the stops are
- 25:11and all the bids are. So we don't have to concern ourselves with that
- 25:17because we're playing the longer term trend. It's an easier game to play too.
- 25:21Carrie like duration wins. If you think about the moguls in any industry
- 25:26that have outperformed their peers, it's because they stayed at the table for longer
- 25:30than anybody else. Right. You know, Rick Rule, a common name
- 25:33in our business, has been at the table near fifty years. And you
- 25:37ever had more than you could afford to lose. He was patient, he
- 25:41understood his time rise and Warren Buffett, by the way, right, the
- 25:44oracle of Omaha. The reason he is who he is is because he's been
- 25:47an investor for eighty years eighty right, he started in his early teens in
- 25:52his nineties. Now, had he run the exact same portfolio strategy but started
- 25:56when he was thirty and quit when he was sixty five, he'd be worth
- 26:00less than one percent of his current network, and nobody would have ever heard
- 26:03his name, by the way, he so would have made a lot of
- 26:04money. That would have been a great thirty five year stretch, and he
- 26:07would be wealthy. Yeah, because that's still duration, right, But it's
- 26:11eighty years of duration that's gotten where he is. You know other factors as
- 26:15well, do time and place matter, But there's a reason that the number
- 26:18one asset Invester ever ends up owning is their house. And it's not because
- 26:22real estate always outperforms. It's because that's the one asset that people hold for
- 26:26twenty five years duration wins. But we want to get rich today. We
- 26:30want to, you know, beat the market. And you know, it's
- 26:33like, I get it, I get it, I get it. Getting
- 26:33rich is actually easy if you have patience and discipline. Getting rich today that's
- 26:40the harder. I can't help with that. Getting rich quick. Hey,
- 26:44you know, I've seen the money come in real fast and I've seen it
- 26:47go out real fast. But like I think Peter Lynch used that as an
- 26:52example, there's no indicator that you can just pop up even Zillow and know
- 26:56exactly what your house is worth today and o gee, my house went down
- 27:00twenty five thousand dollars. I better sell it right exactly. We don't have
- 27:06the information, so therefore we don't have the ability to really know. We
- 27:11kind of know it's going up, or it's staying the same, or house
- 27:14housing price is one of five percent last year across the US, But we
- 27:18don't really know what our house is worth at any given moment. And that's
- 27:22probably a good thing. For the bulk of home owners out there, because
- 27:26if they did, they'd be having a nervous breakdown every eighteen months when there's
- 27:32a recession. Right, yeah, I mean, and what you just said
- 27:34is so valuable because we own our home, that's how we think about it.
- 27:40We didn't invest in our home. Now, you know, sure,
- 27:41real estate investments a whole different thing. But when we buy equity in a
- 27:45company, we are now an owner of that company. But when it comes
- 27:48to the markets, we don't think about that. We identify as traders.
- 27:52Many people identify as traders but operate sorry, identify as investors, but operate
- 27:57like traders. They don't think of themselves as owners in a company when they
- 28:00buy ownership in that company, which is what you're doing when you're buying equity.
- 28:04But that mindset, chef, like, imagine, hey, if we
- 28:07could all flip that switch and our equity portfolios and think of ourselves as owners
- 28:12of companies as opposed to you know, traders or investors of shares. Most
- 28:17people, right, they're trading share prices, they're not actually investing in companies.
- 28:21It's a different game. Yeah, yeah, so true, And that
- 28:23would eliminate a lot of the emotion. Generally, the emotions are what costs
- 28:29you the money or inability. Myself, what I've lost big, it's been
- 28:33fear and greed, you know. Always I got into something I shouldn't have
- 28:37because of either fomo or just another word of saying greed, and I sold
- 28:42something because of fear that had I been rational without emotion, I would have
- 28:48held on to It's that simple. So hey, well we covered a lot
- 28:51of territory. We're going to have it all in the show notes. Jay,
- 28:53just tell us get in the best place to find you? How do
- 28:56we connect with you on social media and all that good stuff. Yeah,
- 29:00easy to find on social It's at J Martin BC, like Bravo, Charlie
- 29:03J Martin BC. And have got a few projects, so the Vancouver Resource
- 29:07Investment Conference every January. It's coming up, easy to find online. I
- 29:11write a substack. It's just the J. Martin Letter. But my newest
- 29:15venture, which I'm super fired up about, is the Commodity University. So
- 29:19this is for any investors who are looking to build a portfolio in the commodity
- 29:23sector. If you don't know where to start, I mean, we built
- 29:26this course in response to literally hundreds of conference attendees, subscribers, et cetera
- 29:32emailing and asking how do I get started building a commodity portfolio? And so
- 29:36it's like, well, there's one hundred ways to start, and they're all
- 29:37kind of right depending on who you are, and so we build the Commodity
- 29:41University. It's a ten chapter course led by myself, begins with the absolute
- 29:45basic fundamentals and principles. Ten chapters later, you're in portfolio construction. I'm
- 29:51joined by a havele of experts like Rick Rule sort of leaning in where their
- 29:53area of expertise is. Rick joins us for the risk management chapter. But
- 29:59it's super fun course, easily consumable, access is easyfy. It's at doc
- 30:03Comodityuniversity dot com. And I'm stoked on this project. So I'd love to
- 30:07hear people think about it, right, I'm going to take a look at
- 30:08it myself. We've got a link in the show notes to this interview on
- 30:11Financial Survival Network dot com. So when you're there, sign up for your
- 30:15free newsletter. Jay bet a pleasure. I'm glad we finally connected and we
- 30:21will definitely talk to you again soon. Sounds good, Kerrie, Thanks man,
- 30:23Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's
- 30:30trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial
- 30:34Survival Network now more than ever,