Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 5 - 3/20/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:20Hello and welcome to episode five of the All Systems Go
- 0:25Sports Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
- 0:28I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
- 0:34Happy Wednesday. We are halfway through our work
- 0:37week guys and we are now less than 24 hours away from the
- 0:40start of March Madness. I know March Madness already
- 0:43kind of started. We got some first four games
- 0:45under our belt last night. We got a couple more here for
- 0:47tonight, but really this is the best time of year when it comes
- 0:50to betting on sports. Obviously you know the Super
- 0:53Bowl, NFL playoffs, bowl games, I mean playoff games and
- 0:56regardless of the sport NBAMLB. But really if you're if you're a
- 0:59sports better really these these next few days are your your
- 1:02really your best days of the year because we get all these
- 1:06high stakes games. They start off tomorrow I
- 1:08believe around noon 12:15. Make sure you know how to find
- 1:11Tru TV. Maybe you have one of the
- 1:13remotes where you can just talk into it and I'll take you right
- 1:14to it, but I had to familiarize myself with what channel Tru TV
- 1:18is was last night. But anyway, the Madness is
- 1:21descending upon us and it is a fantastic time to be betting on
- 1:24sports. So I'm excited for Madness
- 1:26officially beginning here for tomorrow.
- 1:28Now, I do have a big announcement that I want to tell
- 1:30you guys about here in one second, doing something very
- 1:33interesting and exciting for tomorrow that I want to invite
- 1:35you all to join me with. But I do want to mention for
- 1:38today we got a four pack of sweats excited to break down
- 1:41with you, with you guys today, including three college
- 1:43basketball games. I got plays on both of the first
- 1:46four games tonight, including an epic, epic, epic, epic
- 1:51contrarian play here. This is about as contrarian as
- 1:53it gets. It's not sharp, but boys at a
- 1:55great contrarian value play another play with a good Ken
- 1:57Palm Edge. Then also have a money line bet
- 2:00here in the NIT, which I'm excited to share with you all.
- 2:02And then I do have a bet in the NHL so I can talk about a late
- 2:06night game here in the NHL, hopefully cashing with a home
- 2:09favorite. So we'll hit on it all in
- 2:10episode five of the All Systems Gopod wanted to mention real
- 2:14quick looking back toward yesterday.
- 2:16Not a bad day, guys made some money yesterday.
- 2:19Overall with our bets 4 and 2 + 0.88 units we got BCBC was
- 2:24fantastic. Boston College wanted outright,
- 2:27and what we loved about BC was their contrarian, only getting
- 2:30around 35% of bets. But there's a huge Steam move in
- 2:32their favor and really the angle there was Providence had their
- 2:36star player who was missing the game and was a motivational
- 2:39edge. I think that's something you
- 2:40really got to take into account. These NIT games.
- 2:42Who are the teams that are disappointed they're playing in
- 2:44the NIT because they wanted to make the big dance.
- 2:46Who are the teams that are happy to play in the NIT and build
- 2:49their program and one have, you know, finish up their season on
- 2:52a high note. So BC was motivated.
- 2:54Providence really was not big. Sharp steam toward BC +6 to plus
- 2:583 1/2. Boston College wins outright,
- 3:00which we love to see. Also got Colorado State real
- 3:04quick. Guys, I think we relegate
- 3:05Virginia. They should never be allowed in
- 3:07the NCAA tournament again. Virginia is the most disgusting
- 3:10product that I've ever seen. Tony Bennett.
- 3:13I get your defensive team, but you're terrible on offense.
- 3:16You can't shoot. You never score.
- 3:18I mean, what do they have? 14 points at halftime?
- 3:20Their style of play is pathetic. So I'm glad Virginia lost.
- 3:23I'm even happier that we had Colorado State come through for
- 3:26us as a big winner. Remember, Colorado State had
- 3:29that good sharp steam -1 1/2 up to -2 1/2.
- 3:32Some looks even closed at 3:00. So nice hit there with the Rams.
- 3:36Good night in the NHL. Two went two and O.
- 3:38We had Vancouver Canucks which came through for us late, but
- 3:41really what made our night was Columbus Blue Jackets in Detroit
- 3:44going over 6 1/2 and we needed a goal with 12 seconds left to
- 3:48force overtime. And I had a lot of you guys
- 3:50tweet me, but 3 + 3 it doesn't equal 6, it equals 7 because I
- 3:55always mention this, but you love an over 6 1/2 when you get
- 3:5733 go to overtime because it doesn't matter.
- 3:59You're guaranteed one more goal to cash that over.
- 4:01So shut out to the Red Wings for scoring late with their goalie
- 4:05pole to tie the game and force it to OT and give us an over 6
- 4:081/2 winner. Now losers from yesterday.
- 4:10Howard again. Howard to me.
- 4:13I was a little worried because they're -3 1/2 and came back
- 4:16down to three. So there was some late buyback
- 4:18on Wagner. But man, Wagner just shot the
- 4:20lights out. Howard made it interesting late.
- 4:22I actually thought maybe they'd, you know, they'd come back and
- 4:25win it for us. But Howard had three chances.
- 4:27Three offensive rebounds, 3 3 pointers.
- 4:31Couldn't hit a single. One would have tied the game.
- 4:33Forced overtime. What are you going to do?
- 4:34Howard came up short and then bridges for our rhythm bed of
- 4:37the day. Over 10, 1/2 rebounds and
- 4:39assists combined he landed on 9 so it just came up a little bit
- 4:42short there. But overall winning night and
- 4:44we'll take that and we'll put it in our back pocket and we'll
- 4:47we'll roll over those proceeds into today.
- 4:49So as I mentioned 4. Pack 3.
- 4:51College basketball. One NHL for today for tonight.
- 4:54Also wanted to mention two things.
- 4:56One we're getting, I'm learning about an RSS feed.
- 4:59So this is all new to me. But I do want to mention that we
- 5:02have all systems go pretty much on every platform now we start
- 5:06off with Spotify that's my go to I, I mooch off my wife's family
- 5:10account. But then we also just added to
- 5:12Amazon Music. We're on iTunes.
- 5:15We're on iheart. So hopefully, however you listen
- 5:17to the pod, no matter how you listen, I'm just thankful that
- 5:20you guys are tuning in and, you know, participating and and
- 5:23pulling up a chair to the virtual bar and sweating games
- 5:25with me. But if there happens to be a
- 5:28platform that I'm not mentioning that you want it on, just reach
- 5:30out to me because I know there's a few out there.
- 5:32These are all the main ones, But if there's a one that I don't
- 5:35know about that you listen to, let me know and I'll do my best
- 5:39to get that on your platform as well.
- 5:41Now before we dive in our sweats, I want to mention
- 5:42something very exciting for tomorrow.
- 5:44This is my announcement tomorrow, starting at noon
- 5:48Eastern Time, from noon to 2:00 PM Eastern Time.
- 5:51So two hour window here. Myself and my buddy James Santor
- 5:55are doing a March Madness live stream.
- 5:58So tomorrow 12:00 to 2:00 PM Eastern Time, it'll be a live
- 6:01stream on Twitter. We'll be breaking on all the
- 6:03first round matchups. So I have a bunch of games that
- 6:06I'm excited to talk about with you guys.
- 6:08I'll have I'll mention all of my bets.
- 6:11We're also going to highlight bet rhythm.
- 6:13So you know, but James is going to really be our go to guy with
- 6:16rhythm. James is going to walk us
- 6:17through how to use rhythm, answer your questions about
- 6:19rhythm. But what I'm excited about is,
- 6:22you know, we're going to have a back and forth and and breakdown
- 6:24all these games and I'll say, hey, like you know, I'm noticing
- 6:27sharp action on this team. They're getting this percentage
- 6:29of bets, this line move by the system match.
- 6:31James, what does Rhythm say about this game?
- 6:34So maybe James will say, hey, rhythm agrees, rhythm disagrees.
- 6:36You know, we don't have anything on the side, but we have a play,
- 6:39a sharp play on the total. So it's going to be really
- 6:41exciting to highlight Rhythm answer.
- 6:43And here's the other thing, we're going to take a lot of
- 6:45Q&A. So if you have any questions,
- 6:47you have questions about particular games.
- 6:49What do you think of the total on this game?
- 6:51You know, any play on the side, talk futures, questions about
- 6:54rhythm, we're going to get it all answered for you.
- 6:56So I'm really excited to go live on Twitter for our all all
- 7:00systems Go pod and rhythm pod extravaganza here with our March
- 7:04Madness live stream. So James and myself tune in 12
- 7:07to 2:00 PM Eastern Time tomorrow and I'm very much looking
- 7:11forward to going live. This will be my first Twitter
- 7:13live and maybe we'll be the first of many.
- 7:15Maybe this will be something that we start doing more often
- 7:18because I'm. I'm pretty pumped to sit down
- 7:20with my buddy James and talk some sharp March Madness bets
- 7:23for you tomorrow. And I will have the pod after
- 7:25that. So this will be kind of just
- 7:27like an appetizer. And then the pod if you if you
- 7:29can't make the live stream, you know the pod will still be
- 7:31coming out right after that. So we'll be highlighting some
- 7:34sharp, sharp bets for the first round or opening round of March
- 7:38Madness. So I'll see you guys there.
- 7:40Twitter live stream me James bet rhythm.
- 7:43All systems go. Pod talking sharp bets will be
- 7:4512:00 to 2:00 PM Eastern Time tomorrow live on Twitter.
- 7:49So that being said, after a good night last night, guys, let's
- 7:51keep it rolling. I have a four pack as I
- 7:53mentioned. Let's dive right in.
- 7:55Let's get right to college basketball.
- 7:57There are a bunch of games today, 12 games overall.
- 8:00And again we have the March Madness tournament.
- 8:03First four tonight and then obviously it all really gets
- 8:05going here for tomorrow. But there are some angles here
- 8:08that I want to mention. So I want to start off with
- 8:10first four match up tonight, 6:40 PM Eastern Time, the early
- 8:13game, Grambling State and Montana State.
- 8:16Now these are both 16 seeds, so the winner will play again.
- 8:19Lamb to the slaughter as I mentioned yesterday, although
- 8:22who knows, maybe a 16 will be to one at some point.
- 8:25They'll play Purdue so the winner will get to play Purdue.
- 8:27This game will be played at the UD Arena in Dayton.
- 8:29OH and some background here, Grambling State their 20 and 14
- 8:33on the year. They just beat Texas Southern 75
- 8:36to 66 to win the SWAC tournament.
- 8:38On the flip side, Montana State 17 and 17.
- 8:41They just took down Montana 85 to 70 to win the Big Sky
- 8:44Tournament. So what we've seen across the
- 8:46market here? Well, I'm taking the points with
- 8:48Grambling State. I'm going to tell you why give
- 8:50me Grambling State plus 4 1/2. If you can find a five out
- 8:53there, even better. But a couple things that I like
- 8:55about in terms of Grambling State.
- 8:57So one is we're pretty much looking at a line freeze.
- 9:00Now. Montana State open this game
- 9:02basically a 4 1/2 point neutral site favorite.
- 9:05And Montana State actually at one point over the last 24 hours
- 9:09they got down to -4. They even got down to -3, 1/2.
- 9:12So I was like, hey, you know, I don't know if the four and a
- 9:15half's are coming back, but you can still get a four 3 1/2.
- 9:18Again, pretty clear that Grambling State took a lot of
- 9:20early money. Now today there has been an
- 9:22adjustment. Montana State is back up to -4
- 9:261/2 and again some books are at 5:00.
- 9:28So basically off the opener, we're still pretty much looking
- 9:31at a line freeze. I'm a little bit surprised it
- 9:33got as high as, you know back to 4 1/2 and five today.
- 9:35But again, shop for the best number.
- 9:37If you can find a 5, that's going to be your best bet.
- 9:39If not, I'll take the 4 1/2 here.
- 9:41But even with this buyback toward Montana State, there's
- 9:43still two reasons why I like Grambling and why I'm taking the
- 9:46points here. The first reason is that
- 9:48Grambling is in a contrarian spot.
- 9:50The public close to 60% of bets are going Montana State, so the
- 9:54public is against Grambling. Therefore we want to be with
- 9:57Grambling as this is just a classic contrarian play.
- 10:00These are heavily backed games. I want to be on the side getting
- 10:02less than half the tickets, not more than half the tickets.
- 10:05The second angle here is a really good Ken Palm Edge.
- 10:08Now Ken Palm has Montana State winning the game, but he only
- 10:11has Montana State winning the game by two points.
- 10:14He's got him winning 69 to 67. So if Ken Palm has a two point
- 10:18game and we're getting 4 1/2 or even 5, that's one of the
- 10:22systems that we talked about on Monday's POD in terms of being
- 10:26contrarian with a Ken Palm edge. So we're against the public and
- 10:30we're getting 4 1/2 or five when Ken Palm's got a two point game.
- 10:33That makes me really interested here in Grambling State now,
- 10:37Grambling State. Couple things I'm going to lean
- 10:38on is their offensive rebound percentage.
- 10:40Hopefully they can dominate the boards.
- 10:42They're 28% on the offensive glass versus only 21% for
- 10:46Montana State. Also limiting their, or
- 10:50basically their effective field goal percentage.
- 10:52Defense. You know how how how much they
- 10:54lock in on defense, They're only allowing their opponents to
- 10:56shoot 49% versus 52% for Montana State.
- 11:00And they're also better at forcing turnovers.
- 11:02So Grambling's defense, and they're rebounding, is what I'm
- 11:05going to bank on here for Grambling.
- 11:06They're 59th in the country at forcing turnovers, 74th for
- 11:09Montana State, and also had a line here that our system match
- 11:13that technically doesn't qualify.
- 11:15If the line's at 5:00, if it stays 4 1/2, it's a match.
- 11:18You know, five it's technically not.
- 11:20But one system that I have over the, you know, over the long
- 11:22haul that I really like is a dog that has the line stay the same
- 11:26or move in their favor. So Grambling stay open 4 1/2,
- 11:29they're still 4 1/2. They could get down to four 3
- 11:321/2 as long as it stays the same or moves in their favor.
- 11:35Those teams are 84 and 64 against the spread 57% since
- 11:392018. So all the lines at 5:00.
- 11:41At some shops that wouldn't qualify.
- 11:43But what I'm hoping is we see something like yesterday because
- 11:46a lot of people reach out to me at Boston College because Boston
- 11:49College went from +6 down to plus 3 1/2.
- 11:52But at one point during the, you know, early to mid afternoon it
- 11:55got back up to 4 1/2. I had a couple people reach out
- 11:58saying hey, you still like BC. I saw that go 3 1/2 to 4 1/2.
- 12:01I said yeah I'm Dancer, the one who brung me.
- 12:02I always stick with my original bet, but also said hey it may
- 12:05come back down. So when it went back up to 4 1/2
- 12:08it came back down to 3 1/2. So what I'm getting at here is
- 12:11even if you see some fives out there, hopefully these fives
- 12:14don't stay there long and they come back down to 4 1/2.
- 12:16You'd love to grab a 5 or 4 1/2 and then see this thing come
- 12:20back down the other way. But if you're giving me a
- 12:22contrarian opportunity with basically a line freeze and Ken
- 12:25Palms got a really good edge here.
- 12:27Only has them losing by two and we're getting 4 1/2 or even 5.
- 12:30I'm taking the points here guys. Give me Grambling state ideally
- 12:34+5. If not, I'll take Grambling at
- 12:36plus 4 1/2. Keep on cruising.
- 12:39Next bet for you. Let's go to the NIT.
- 12:42Big match up here, Princeton, NJ.
- 12:44We got UNLV and Princeton. This is the first round of the
- 12:47NITUNLV is 19 and 12. They just lost the San Diego
- 12:50State 74 to 71 in the Mountain West quarters.
- 12:53Meanwhile, Princeton 24 and four They just fell to Brown 90 to 81
- 12:57in the Ivy League semifinals. What have we seen across the
- 13:00market here? Well.
- 13:01I hope you took Princeton earlier today when I wrote the
- 13:03article for VS n.com because Princeton is very, very sharp.
- 13:07They're so sharp. I cut my finger on my app when I
- 13:09went to go put in the Princeton money line earlier today.
- 13:12But Princeton actually opened -1 1/2.
- 13:15The public is going UNLV. 60% of bets are going UNLVI.
- 13:19Get it? UNLV.
- 13:20You know kind of a bigger name school.
- 13:22There's a bias against Ivy League team say you're smart,
- 13:25you're not that good. You play in a smaller
- 13:26conference. However, even though almost 2/3
- 13:29of bets are on UNLV, the steam is all toward Princeton.
- 13:33Princeton went from -1 1/2 up to -3 this morning when I wrote the
- 13:37article. Now they're up to 3 1/2.
- 13:39So this line continues to move in favor of Princeton.
- 13:41I love that because it is a sharp contrarian reverse line
- 13:44move. Again, public UNLV, but Lions
- 13:46going to Princeton. Princeton's only getting 40% of
- 13:48bets but 65% of dollars, so great bets split there.
- 13:53Basically, this is a fade. The trendy dog fade, the trendy
- 13:55dog UNLV. Get down here on Princeton now.
- 13:58Princeton has a lot of advantages offensively.
- 14:00Better offensive efficiency, 28 in the country versus 74 for
- 14:04UNLV. Better effective field goal
- 14:07percentage? 55% versus 51%.
- 14:10Better three-point shooting, 35% versus 33%.
- 14:13Better free throw shooting. Massive edge here.
- 14:16Free throw shooting, 81% for Princeton, 73% for UNLV.
- 14:22And I'm not sure if you knew this, but Princeton is the
- 14:24number one team in the country at not turning the ball over
- 14:28versus 138 for UNLV. Now Ken Palm does have Princeton
- 14:32winning by 4. So if you're now 3 1/2 and you
- 14:34say, hey he's got him by 4. I'll lay the 3 1/2, hopefully
- 14:37cover the number. I hope you do.
- 14:37If you if you lay the points this is a money line bet for me.
- 14:41I took Princeton on the money line at -155 now gift and a
- 14:44curse. Good thing the line keeps going
- 14:46to Princeton, tells us we're on the sharp side but not great if
- 14:49you haven't bet it yet. Now you're looking at around a
- 14:50-, 170. So I'll lay the 170 now.
- 14:53But again I got the 1:55 earlier.
- 14:55Hopefully you got a better number here, but if you also get
- 14:58home favorites in the NIT over the past decade they're 176 and
- 15:027371%. So Publix UNLV.
- 15:05But the line keeps going to Princeton.
- 15:07This will fade the trendy dog UNLV.
- 15:08Give me Princeton money line again.
- 15:10I got -155. Now you're looking at around a
- 15:13-, 170. Now for the late night match up
- 15:17here tonight. Colorado.
- 15:18Boise State, 9:10 PM Eastern Time.
- 15:20We have a contrarian play to end all contrarian plays.
- 15:23So little background here. These are 10 seeds.
- 15:26The winner is going to face seven seed Florida once again.
- 15:30Game will be played at UD Arena in Dayton, OH.
- 15:32Now Colorado is 24 and 10 on the year.
- 15:35They just lost to Oregon 75 to 68 in the PAC 12 tournament.
- 15:38Meanwhile, Boise State 22 and 10.
- 15:41They just fell to New Mexico 76 to 66 in the Mountain West
- 15:45tournament quarterfinals. So.
- 15:47What do we see across the market here?
- 15:49Well, everybody and their mother is on Colorado, so maybe you
- 15:53know where I'm going with this one already.
- 15:54But Colorado did see some line movement.
- 15:56You know Colorado opens around -2, they move it up to -3,
- 16:00there's some juiced up threes and even some three and a halfs
- 16:03out there. So it's very clear that Colorado
- 16:06is a very popular bet tonight. Colorado is getting 80% of
- 16:11spread bets. Now, Colorado did have some
- 16:13value when the line was, you know, sharper earlier.
- 16:16Like when they're if like if you're telling me you got
- 16:17Colorado -2 or 2 1/2 the lines now, three or three and a half,
- 16:21you did your part, you got some COV, you did make a good bet.
- 16:24But if you're going Colorado -3 or 3 1/2 right now, you're with
- 16:28the public at the time of year when you never want to be with
- 16:30the public most heavily backed game of the night and you're
- 16:33laying the worst of the number. So I'm not going to be with 80%
- 16:36in any bet that I make. I'm also not going to lay the
- 16:38worst of the number. I'm going the other way.
- 16:40Guys, this is a contrarian play that you love to see on Boise
- 16:44State. Now, I'm not going to call Boise
- 16:46State sharp because in order to be sharp, need one of a few
- 16:49things. A reverse line move, a steam
- 16:51move, 5050 line move, a line freeze, A low bets, higher
- 16:55dollar bet split. You really don't have that for
- 16:57Boise State. But what you do have is an
- 16:59inflated line contrarian value play.
- 17:02So what do I mean by that? What do I mean is just right off
- 17:04the bat, regardless of the line movement, one team's getting
- 17:0780%, the other team's getting 20%.
- 17:09I want to bet against everyone drunk at the bar tonight who's
- 17:12on Colorado and take Boise State.
- 17:14So just from a bet against the public contrarian play Boise
- 17:17State is your top contrarian play of the night.
- 17:20The other angle here is an inflated line.
- 17:22You know this game open at you know Colorado -2, now we're
- 17:25getting a 3 1/2. That's the key here guys.
- 17:27Make sure you get the hook. There's 3 1/2's out there.
- 17:30You may even want to buy it up to 3 1/2 like again, something
- 17:33we're going to stress all the time on the on the ASG pod is
- 17:36got to have multiple outs so you can shop for the best number.
- 17:38So I see some 3 1/2's out there anyway, but if you're at a book
- 17:41that's -3 -, 115 for Colorado, you may want to buy a Boise plus
- 17:463 -, 1 O 5 to get them to 3 1/2. I think that could be critical.
- 17:49We since we're on a contrarian inflated line value spot with
- 17:54Boise State, we want to get at least the best number we can,
- 17:56which would mean getting the hook on the 3 1/2.
- 17:58So if you can buy up, you know, basically a juice down plus
- 18:01three at -1 O 5 + 3. At even money take it up to plus
- 18:053, 1/2, -, 120 or just again I see books out there that are
- 18:09hanging the hook. But Long story short, get that
- 18:11hook on Boise State, get the plus 3 1/2.
- 18:14That's my play Boise State plus 3 1/2.
- 18:17But anyway, super contrarian inflated line value play.
- 18:21And then also Ken Palm has Colorado winning by just one
- 18:24point. So public is in love with
- 18:27Colorado the lock of the century yet Ken Palm only isn't winning
- 18:30by 1. So if we are insanely contrarian
- 18:32with an inflated line and Ken Palms got him losing by one and
- 18:36we're getting 3 1/2 right there, I smell some value, guys.
- 18:40You look at Boise, also, better defensive efficiency, 28th
- 18:43versus 39th. They also take care of the ball
- 18:45better, 147th in the country and turnovers versus 260 for
- 18:49Colorado. And also, I know these are young
- 18:52kids and you know the adrenaline will be flowing, but you have a
- 18:54big rest advantage for Boise State.
- 18:56They last played on the 14th of March, Colorado played on the
- 18:5916th. So is Boise State sharp?
- 19:02No, but one of our angles in March Madness is betting against
- 19:05the masses. The masses are all over
- 19:07Colorado. I'm going to buy low and take
- 19:09Boise State. Give me Boise State inflated
- 19:12line contrarian play with a good Ken palm edge.
- 19:14I'm on Boise plus 3 1/2 now over to the NHL after nice little two
- 19:20and O yesterday with the Red Wings coming through for us.
- 19:24With that over 6 1/2, as well as a nice hit there with the
- 19:29favorite versus back-to-back in favor of the Canucks, I got one
- 19:31more bet for you for one late night.
- 19:33It's ATNT game, should be a good match up here.
- 19:36Minnesota Wild and the LA Kings. I'm going with the Kings.
- 19:41I'm going Kings on the money line at -150.
- 19:44Now this isn't a huge line move play for me like the LA Kings
- 19:48are currently, you know they open around -150.
- 19:51They pretty much stayed around -150.
- 19:52I saw one book that was like -140 up to -150, but either way
- 19:56it's not a huge steam move. But what it is for me in favor
- 19:59of the Kings is a really good system match.
- 20:01Now, the angle that I really liked yesterday that came
- 20:04through for us in favor of Vancouver was the rest First
- 20:08Tired, You know, Fade the team on the second leg, Go
- 20:10back-to-back. What I like here for a system
- 20:12match is I have a system when both teams are on the second
- 20:15leg, go back-to-back, take the favorite.
- 20:17So both teams played last night. You saw Minnesota get a win
- 20:22against. Who did they play?
- 20:23They played Anaheim. They won four.
- 20:24Nothing. You also saw the Kings win six
- 20:27to two so both teams played last night and won but if you look at
- 20:30when both teams are on the second leg of a back-to-back
- 20:33just take the favorite very simple but it's 33 and 13 this
- 20:38year 72% with a 17% ROI So that's really my main reason to
- 20:43take the Kings the system match on the all systems go pod you
- 20:46know we love our systems but both back-to-back take the
- 20:49favorite 72% this year. Some other factors I'll I look
- 20:53at the defence for the Kings, which is better than Minnesota.
- 20:56Now both teams offensively are averaging around three goals a
- 20:58game, but the Kings are giving up 2.6 and Minnesota's giving up
- 21:023.1. Minnesota's giving up 219 goals
- 21:06this year. The Kings have given up 180.
- 21:09Also power play both about the same 22%.
- 21:12But again, defensively you have the Kings 86% on the penalty
- 21:16kill versus only 75% for Minnesota goal differential.
- 21:20Kings are the better team plus 30 versus -3 injuries.
- 21:24You have some guys out for Minnesota, Spurgeon their
- 21:26captain, Eric's neck and you look at the goalies tonight.
- 21:29Flurry against Ridditch. Now Flurry has been really,
- 21:32really good recently. His goals against now is 2.679 O
- 21:36six save percentage. But Ridditch for the Kings has
- 21:39been really good as well. I'm hoping he plays well
- 21:41tonight. 2.29 goals against 9/16 save percentage.
- 21:46So if the Kings at home again not a huge line move play but a
- 21:50really good system match both back-to-back, take the favorite
- 21:53again 72% this year and Kings are at home so they don't have
- 21:56to travel and they played at home last night.
- 21:59So hopefully an angle there to take advantage of and you do
- 22:02have the Kings at home in terms of the last ice change,
- 22:04hopefully that's a benefit to the Kings as well.
- 22:06So I'm going Kings on the money line at -150 that about does it
- 22:12for episode five of the all systems Go podcast on a big
- 22:15Wednesday. Want to remind you guys as
- 22:18always, if you enjoy the pod, I would love it if you could give
- 22:22this pod five stars as we can hopefully continue to make this
- 22:25pod grow organically. But if you want to give it five
- 22:28stars on the on whatever platform you listen to,
- 22:32especially Spotify, that would be fantastic.
- 22:34Also if you want to help me grow the All Systems Go Twitter feed,
- 22:38please give us a follow at under score ASG under score podcast.
- 22:43Also, you can give me a follow at Josh under Score Insights.
- 22:47Also, if you enjoy the pod and you enjoy the breakdowns in this
- 22:51approach to sports betting and you want to learn more or you
- 22:54want to let me know you appreciate the hard work that I
- 22:56put in grinding in the arena. Being the professor of this this
- 22:59system, this strategy data-driven contrarian betting,
- 23:02then I would recommend buying my book.
- 23:04Go to Amazon.com, type in the everything guide to sports
- 23:07betting. All you got to do is pick up a
- 23:09copy and you'll learn everything that I've learned over the many
- 23:12over the many years it took me to learn these things.
- 23:14Hopefully you'll you'll learn it a little bit quicker.
- 23:16But how lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
- 23:19movement. How to go contrarian.
- 23:20How to place a bet in person or online.
- 23:22How to identify sharp action bankroll management.
- 23:25I have a chapter on how to bet MLBI noticed yesterday that the
- 23:29the Dodgers came back. I don't know if anyone live line
- 23:31the Dodgers. I know somebody did.
- 23:32I know Gary Garrison did. But baseball's back.
- 23:36You can get a refresher on my chapter on how to bet.
- 23:39MLBI have a March Madness chapter as well if you want to
- 23:42support the team. It's all included in the
- 23:44Everything Guide to Sports Betting, so buy a copy and give
- 23:47it five stars and a good review on Amazon.
- 23:49That would mean a lot to me as well.
- 23:50Then of course, always want to give a shout out to Rhythm
- 23:53because the All Systems Gopod is powered by Rhythm, the ultimate
- 23:56AI sports betting app for data, back pics and props.
- 24:00So you know what you should go do, especially before you get
- 24:02ready for our live stream tomorrow, is go download the
- 24:05Rhythm app so you can make smarter bets.
- 24:07Today. In order to take advantage of
- 24:09the Rhythm app, you can do a 7 day free trial.
- 24:11And what I want you to do is go to either my Twitter page at
- 24:15Josh under score Insights or the ASG Twitter page at under score
- 24:20ASG under score Podcast and click that specific link that I
- 24:23have pinned at the top of my page.
- 24:26Because then they will know that I referred you.
- 24:28Which is very important here because I want them to know that
- 24:31I am doing my part to let people know about how the Rhythm app
- 24:34and how great it is and how can help you make smart bets.
- 24:37So go sign up for a free Rhythm account and then play around it
- 24:40tonight. And then you can maybe ask some
- 24:42questions during the live stream tomorrow.
- 24:44Again, 12 to two with my buddy James Santor live on Twitter.
- 24:48That about does it. Everyone, another pod here in
- 24:50the books. I wish you the best of luck here
- 24:52for tonight, my parting words As always, stay sharp, stay
- 24:55contrarian, Bet against the public.
- 24:57Place yourself on the side of the house.
- 24:58Always be with the smart money, never against it.
- 25:01Will smart money win every time? Of course not.
- 25:04Because again, crazy things happen.
- 25:06You know, you can have upsets, bad beats, you know, sports
- 25:09betting's hard. It's not easy.
- 25:10However, if we can consistently find that sweet spot games that
- 25:14fit our model against the public, with the house, with the
- 25:16pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, Get some CLV.
- 25:20If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
- 25:23So enjoy a lot of good college hoops for tonight, see if we can
- 25:26cash some tickets because that's what we we love doing.
- 25:29And then get ready because all the madness starts tomorrow.
- 25:32Also people were asking me about like my bracket and you know my
- 25:36champion and all that. I wait until the very end.
- 25:39So I got more research to do tonight and I will you know kind
- 25:42of highlight that on on Tomorrow's POD as well.
- 25:44So I'll stay tuned for some late breaking insights and I I want
- 25:48to let because you know looking at all these games for tomorrow,
- 25:50I have a lot of liens but I want to you know let the public have
- 25:53their say, let some lines move, look for some edges you know
- 25:56with Ken Palm of course in the percentages.
- 25:59So officially I will unveil all my picks for tomorrow on
- 26:02Tomorrow's Pod as well as bunching them on the live stream
- 26:05which you can find on Twitter. But either way, guys, hope you
- 26:07have a fantastic Wednesday. March Madness, baby.
- 26:11It's the best time of year. But good luck everyone.
- 26:13Have a great night and I'll see you tomorrow.
- 26:15For the official beginning or unofficially, it's already
- 26:18officially begun. But the real March Madness
- 26:20beginning. The madness starts tomorrow.
- 26:23Good luck, everybody. Get a good night's sleep.
- 26:24Let's cash them tickets and I'll see you tomorrow.
- 26:26Appreciate you listening to the All Systems Gopod Powered by
- 26:29Rhythm.