Latest / Money Grows on Trees / #305 -The AI Bubble Is Coming For Your Super

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#305 -The AI Bubble Is Coming For Your Super · Money Grows on Trees

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Everyone's talking about the AI bubble. 54% of global fund
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managers think we're in one. The International Monetary Fund is warning about
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it. And Michael Burry, the guy who shorted the housing market in 2008, just
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shorted a bunch of AI companies in the last few weeks. And yet everyone's
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still piling money into this space like it's a sure thing. But here's
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what nobody's telling you. The AI bubble isn't coming. It's
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already here. And the only question left is how bad
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the crash is going to be and whether you're going to protect yourself before
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it happens. And if you're an Australian investor, if
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you have superannuation in international funds, you're more exposed to
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this than you think. And in this video, I'm going
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to show you exactly why the AI bubble is
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unsustainable. I'm going to show you the circular deals that are propping up
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the entire industry. And most importantly, I'm going to show you
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what this means for you as an Australian investor. I'm Lloyd James
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Ross, seven-figure investor and entrepreneur, and I've helped thousands of
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business owners and professionals turn financial stress into
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success. If you're stuck in old money habits, overwhelmed by investing,
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or unsure where to start, this is for you. I'll give you the mindset
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and strategies to take control, grow your wealth, and achieve
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financial freedom. It's time to make your money work for you. Let's
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start with this, the scale of the bubble. We'll start with
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the numbers. Because once you see the scale of what's actually happening, you'll
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understand why it can't last. So OpenAI, the company
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behind ChatGPT, was recently valued at about $500 billion.
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People are saying when it lists it's gonna be a trillion, but $500 billion. Now for
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context, that's more than Coca-Cola, more than McDonald's, more
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than even Pfizer. And how much revenue does it currently produce?
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Well, it's generating about $10 billion a year. How
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much are they losing? More than that. They're burning through like eight
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and a half billion dollars in losses, just in losses annually. So
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we have a company valued at 500 billion that's losing money.
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And not just losing a little bit of money, it's losing billions of
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dollars every single year. But don't worry, it
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gets worse. OpenAI has committed to 1.5 trillion
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in AI deals. That's trillion with a T. They've signed $500 billion
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deals with Project Stargate. That's to build all the data centers in the US. A
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$300 billion deal with Oracle, specifically to buy all the compute power. And
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another $500 billion with NVIDIA to buy the
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chips. And then another $300 billion with AMD. That's
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1.5 trillion in commitments for a company that generates 10 billion in revenue. So
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let me put that in perspective. If open AI used a
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hundred percent of its revenue, every single dollar it
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makes to pay for the deals, it would take 150 years to
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fulfill those commitments. It's
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not a business model, it's almost like a Ponzi scheme, right? And
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OpenAI is not alone in this. McKinsey did a
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recent study and they estimate that the AI industry will
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need to spend, check this out, will need to spend $7 trillion in
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capital expenditures over the next five years just to meet the demand. $7 trillion!
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So to put that in context, America's total capital expenditure across all
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industries in 2024, last year, was 8.3 trillion. So
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the AI industry, just one industry, is planning to spend nearly as
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much as the entire US economy spends on
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everything. And here's the thing, most of
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these companies aren't making money. So
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there's a circular monetary problem happening here. You
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might be thinking, okay, well, aren't these people smart who
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are running these companies? They wouldn't be investing in
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this stuff if it didn't work, right? And I understand that, but here's where
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the circular money problem arises. You've seen
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this chart floating around probably, it's floating around the internet, and
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it shows the financial relationships between all the major AI companies. And
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when you look at it, you realize something very disturbing. They're all just paying
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each other. So here's how it works. NVIDIA
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invests $100 billion in open AI because NVIDIA is
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one of the largest chip providers, right? In fact, it's the largest
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and it's a $4 trillion company, a $5 trillion company now. And
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it's the largest company in the world. And here's the thing, it's
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got what's called vendor financing. And vendor financing is
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where they actually allow their biggest customers, and OpenAI is one of their largest customers,
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$100 billion, to actually buy the chips off
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them with borrowed money from them. So
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this happened in the dot-com bubble too, and it's now
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starting to happen again. So in return to that, OpenAI
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agrees to buy NVIDIA's chips. And so they're kind of incestuous, they're
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in bed together, right? And so NVIDIA also
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invests in the CoreWeave, which is an AI data center, and they agreed to backstop
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all their services if they can't find customers. So CoreWeave then
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sells computing power to OpenAI. And AMD gives
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OpenAI warrants for shares in return for OpenAI's
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You know commitment to buying the AMD chips so that
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announcement alone sends the AM stock ticker higher Which
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then helps pay open AI for the deal that makes sense because they're
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using warrants So open AI announces a
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300 billion dollar deal with Oracle for data
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center capacity Oracle turns around and
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buys chips from media Who's invested in
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open AI see the problem? It's a circle. It's
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circular and NVIDIA is investing in
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its own customers so they can then buy NVIDIA chips. And
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then NVIDIA is reporting those chips as sales as revenue, even though
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they're effectively funding the purchase themselves. And
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that is the vendor financing conundrum. And
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it's exactly what happened right at the end of the dot-com bubble incidentally.
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So the company that was doing that was say
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Nortel for example. They started lending money to their customers so they could buy their products.
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And it made their revenue look great. It made their
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profits look great. And then the whole thing collapsed. Because
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here's the truth. If you're investing in your customers to give them the cash
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they need to buy your stuff, you're not actually making any profit. You're
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just moving money in a circle. It's
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a loop. And when the music stops, and
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it will, when investors stop putting money into the space, the
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whole thing falls apart. And then there's the demand
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problem. And let's just say I'm
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wrong. Let's say these circular deals aren't even a problem. Let's
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say these companies can actually deliver on what they're promising. There's
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still one massive issue, demand. Specifically,
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when Bain and company did a study, they estimated that AI will need
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like $2 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 to be profitable.
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Think about that. In four years, they need 2 trillion in
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annual revenue to be profitable, 2 trillion. That's more than the 2024 revenue
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of Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple,
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and NVIDIA all combined. That's five times more
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than the entire software as a service market. And
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there's no path to that kind of revenue. Yeah, so 80% of
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companies are using AI in some sort of capacity, right? So ChatGPT broke
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the records and it's the fastest growing app ever. OpenAI
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now has like 800 million active users, but only
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6% of those users are actually paying for the service. And 61% of
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the companies using AI say it hasn't had any real
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impact on their earnings. So we have hundreds of millions of
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people using AI for free effectively. And the companies that
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are paying for it aren't seeing a return on the investment. And Citigroup
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estimates that AI revenue will reach like $780 billion
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by 2030. It's very impressive growth. That's like
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80% a year. It's incredible, right? It's an industrial bubble. But
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it's still less than half of what Bain said that they needed for
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the industry just to break even. That's
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assuming everything goes perfectly. That's assuming
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AI companies deliver on their promises. That's assuming that demand keeps growing
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at the same pace. But what if it doesn't? What
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if we're in this Metaverse 2.0? Remember when
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Zuck started spending all the cash flow from Meta on the Metaverse? And
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remember everyone said it was the future, et cetera?
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I can't remember that. And Meta stock just collapsed because it
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was just wasted money. Because where is the Metaverse now? It's
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like, remember when people were buying land in the Metaverse? What
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happened to them? Anyway, AI is
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certainly more promising than the metaverse, but the same principle applies.
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Just because a technology is exciting doesn't mean
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it's profitable, doesn't mean it's a good investment. We've seen this
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before with railroads in the 1800s,
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bubble, industrial bubble. We saw it then with cars, industrial
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bubble. We saw it then with the internet, industrial
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bubble. If you look at these industrial bubbles over the course of history, The
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railroads, there was like tons of railroad companies. And
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now there's only like a handful. There's only like a handful. There's only like eight big
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class one railroads in the Western markets,
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really. And so you think of all those railroads, there's only a handful. Then
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you look at cars. In fact, in America, there was 200 car manufacturers
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in the United States at the beginning of the car boom. Now
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there's like Ford and GM, two, there's two, two.
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The internet, remember all the internet companies weren't making money? They're gone, gone.
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Pets.com, toys.com, you know, all gone. There's
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only a handful, Google, Amazon, Microsoft. Like
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there's just a handful now. So if you're looking at this as an industrial bubble,
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of course, there's only gonna be a handful of AI companies left. So there's gonna
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be a huge fallout, right? So here's the thing with,
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if you're listening from Australia, cause that's where I'm based right now. Here's
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what nobody's talking about here in our country. What does it mean for us? What
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does it mean for people who are, you know, it's in America, right? Open AI doesn't
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really matter. So what happens to Australian investors when the bubble pops? Let
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me. Well, it's not good, particularly lately,
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because a lot of superannuation funds are gonna start putting a lot of money into
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international shares. But according to the ASX, the
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Australian investors have poured billions into AI as well. NVIDIA, Microsoft, AMD,
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these are some of the most heavily traded stocks, even on Australian exchanges, because we
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can also, on our ASX, have index
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funds like, you know, from Vanguard and
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BlackRock, they're listed on our exchange. So you can actually
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have huge exposure to these companies via those types of ETFs and
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funds, and that is actually happening. So it's not just retail investors, it's
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Australian super funds, it's your retirement savings, it's all that stuff.
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They're heavily exposed to AI. If you look at some ETFs, That
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a lot of Aussies are exposed to like I would say 30 to
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40 percent of the holdings are all exposed to AI It's crazy, you know
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it's wild and so most
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people are going to be exposed to this crash, right? Or
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this adjustment in the bubble. Just quickly, if you're ready to take control of your finances but
11:13
feel stuck on where to start, I have a solution. My
11:16
book, Money Bias Happiness, simplifies investing and
11:19
wealth building with practical steps to help you achieve financial peace.
11:24
Get your copy via the link in the show notes and let's get your money working for
11:27
you. Now back to the episode. So when it pops, it
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will definitely hit retirement savings. But there's an
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even bigger risk if you're in Australia too, because you've got currency risk. So most of these investments
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are in US dollars. So when the bubble pops, you're not just losing money on the stocks, you
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may also have some sort of currency conversion too. So
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yeah, just be careful of that. Because when the US market crashes, typically the
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Aussie dollar strengthens. And so that
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amplifies your losses as well. With
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any hope, people run to the US dollar and that doesn't happen. So you could
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potentially get hit twice, right? One with the stock price, and
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then one on the currency. And there's the economic impact of
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that. And people will often say, well, how does that impact our economy? Well, remember when
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housing collapsed in America? Boom, a couple of years later, we got smashed. Because
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the old saying goes, when America catches a cold, when America sneezes, Australia
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catches a cold. You've probably heard that before. So Australia's economy is
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definitely dependent on resources, right? We've got iron ore, coal, natural gas.
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These are our biggest exports. And guess who buys them? China. And
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guess who else buys them? USA. And they
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buy them for manufacturing, infrastructure, technology, and development. And so when the
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AI bubble pops, the global thirst for these commodities will
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actually dry up too. Now, I don't think that's going to happen in the
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short term. But long term, at some point, there will be
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an adjustment to these revenue projections, the amount of capital being
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put into these things, and the ROI that's not coming back. and
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that's gonna definitely have a knock-on impact to us as
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a country, to our resource sector, et cetera, and
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then it'll start to then have a knock-on effect in jobs, right? So it
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means the Australian economy then will start to contract as well. So it wouldn't surprise me
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to see a recession after a
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global AI bubble pop. So everybody's pretty much exposed to
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the risk, okay? So it's not just gonna hurt tech investors, I think it's gonna hurt everyone.
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Now, to what extent, we don't know, but there's definitely concentration
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risk because Everyone's talking about
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AI. It's just like the thing. Yeah And I
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think it's like 35 to there about companies account for like 90 Yeah,
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almost a hundred percent of the AI token spending In
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fact, there's two companies that are actually accounting
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for almost 50% of it, right? NVIDIA's chips, of course, and
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then other companies involved in the AI itself. They
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account for like, I think it's 36% of the S&P 500's growth.
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This is wild, okay? I would say the most concentrated
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S&P 500 in recent memory. So when you're buying
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the S&P 500 as an example, you're buying 500 companies, but by the way, most
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of the gains are from The AI companies
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which account for 40% of the fund. Okay, so it's just something to
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understand, right? So if one of these companies fails, then it sends a bit of a shockwave
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through the entire market, right? And then OpenAI is basically
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at the center of it all. Because OpenAI's deal announcements
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alone, right? They've added hundreds of
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billions of dollars to the market values of Broadcom and Video and AMD. So
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if OpenAI pulls back, if they can't deliver on their promises,
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and right now Alphabet is cranking. It's
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taken so much market share from OpenAI. Look at the chart. It's dominating
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because Google has a distribution across its powerful
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businesses to implement AI faster than OpenAI. OpenAI is pure.
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It's very much its own business, and it can get absolutely crushed by people like Alphabet,
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who have just got these wide modes and distribution channels that they don't access.
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In fact, right now, Google is one of the only ones. In fact,
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Google and Alibaba are the only full-tech stack AI, which means this. They
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own the chips, they own the data centers, and
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they own the distribution. the actual AI models. So
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they're the only full stack. And in fact, too, they've got contracts
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on nuclear power. So if you go right upstream, nuclear
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power contracts for getting power, then you've got the
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actual chips themselves, then you've got the data centers,
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then you've got the models. And that's a full stack AI for
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vertically integrated business model. Those who've got a fully vertically
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integrated business model not only control the model themselves, they
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make better margins, but they also can squeeze
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out these other ones at a higher cost. It's very much like the oil industry in
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that sense. You get companies like that
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versus an open AI and they're already crushing open AI. This is what's happening
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in real time. What's happening too is in
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the prices out there, the P ratios, the price
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that you're paying for these companies in relation to their earnings, they're getting
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quite high, which means there's no room for error. So
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there's no room for disappointing results. If they don't stack up, it doesn't happen, they don't
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deliver, there's gonna be massive price adjustments. You're gonna see a huge, there could be
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a big bear market, 20, 30% collapse in the stock market for sure, as
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these prices start to adjust based on the earnings that they can actually deliver on. So
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you look at the peer ratio of the S&P 500 now, it's actually at 30 times earnings,
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which historically is very high, very high. It's
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not quite as high as the dot-com bubble. In the dot-com bubble, it was 46 times
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earnings. Flipping very high, right? So we're not quite at dot-com
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bubble levels yet, but we're getting close. And here's the difference. During
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the dot-com bubble, 36% of the tech companies were actually losing
16:40
money. They're just like URLs, it was wild. I
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was only 17, I still remember. Today, it's only 18%, right?
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So on the surface, things look a lot better. The financials are definitely stronger. The
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companies look more stable. They are more stable, but that doesn't account for the private companies like
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OpenAI and Anthropic and so forth that are completely unprofitable. They're burning through
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billions of dollars in cash. And it doesn't account for the circular money problem with
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the vendor financing that's happening with Nvidia, or the demand problem, or
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the infrastructure bottlenecks like power, right? Which is a huge constraint. So
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why this bubble, this industrial bubble, which it is, is
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different from the dot-com bubble, which is also an industrial bubble from the internet. It
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is different. And I know you're probably thinking, Lloyd, why are you being so negative, right?
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Why are you bullish on AI? I love AI, it's great, but there's definitely a bubble. The
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internet was a bubble too, and it's changed the world, it's amazing. So
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financial bubbles are really bad for people. Like the 2008 housing
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bubble was a financial bubble. It was FOMO by the
17:38
consumer of buying things worth way more than what it costs, and it
17:42
was FOMO. That was very bad because they were selling bonds, anyway, long
17:45
story. Not ideal. Financial bubbles suck. 1929 was
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a financial bubble, and so was the 2008 financial crash. So financial bubbles,
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extremely systemically bad for us. They can cause
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depressions. However, industrial bubbles
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are really good for us as consumers. It advances our lifestyle
18:04
massively. But it's not so good for investors if they own pieces
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of these companies that aren't making the money they say they are, right? That's the issue.
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So, the internet changed the world, railroads changed the world, cars changed the world,
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AI is changing the world. But it also, the internet, dot-com
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bubble also led to an 80% collapse of the NASDAQ
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If you look at the NASDAQ in 2000, 1999, 2000, 80% collapse.
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In fact, it collapsed over a couple of years. But then it, listen to this, it took
18:35
14 years to recover. Be
18:39
aware of that. It can happen again. So thousands of .com startups obviously
18:42
went broke. Investors lost trillions. It took a long time
18:45
to recover. But again, a few companies did
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survive. So yeah, AI is
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changing the world, but it doesn't mean you're necessarily going to make money from
18:55
it. And this is why Warren Buffett doesn't invest heavily into fast-changing industries,
18:59
because it's not how you make money. It's how you definitely have a better life.
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Okay, so there's a few differences between the dot-com bubble and the AI bubble back
19:07
then interest rates were rising The Federal Reserve was actually tightening monetary policy right
19:10
now. They're actually gonna bet to the opposite They're gonna probably
19:14
drop rates because inflation's come right down. Okay, so there's a huge difference. We're
19:17
gonna see rate cuts which means the bubble's got more room to
19:21
run. If rates are cut, oh my God,
19:24
we're gonna see this thing flip and boom, and I think rates are gonna get cut, because Trump right
19:27
now is like, he's hammering the Fed chairman to
19:31
start cutting rates, right? So the timing's a lot different. During
19:35
the dot-com bubble, Alan Greenspan was the Federal Reserve Chair
19:38
at the time, right? And he said, oh, there's a
19:41
lot of irrational exuberance, which there was in 1996, I think he said
19:44
that. And then four years later, bang, the bubble pops. So it takes a
19:47
while, right? So even if we are in a massive bubble, it
19:51
could take a few years. And especially if they drop rates, it definitely will. And
19:54
it could also pop tomorrow. I mean, we just don't really know. But we do
19:57
know for certain that right now there's way too much capital flowing
20:01
into AI based on the expected returns of
20:04
that capital. Now, if that happens, it's very capital intensive and
20:07
very return light, which means at some point it'll
20:11
adjust. And when it adjusts, the market will go through some sort of you
20:16
know, bear market, okay? So what do you do right now?
20:19
What do you do? First, if you're invested in AI
20:23
stocks specifically, you need to take a hard look at your portfolio. I'm
20:26
not saying sell everything, I'm not saying don't buy AI stocks, but I'm
20:29
just saying you need to understand your own risks. So if you own NVIDIA, AMD,
20:33
Microsoft, one of these companies that are not only heavily exposed to AI, but
20:37
also at a very high price based on the capital expenditure, Then
20:42
you've got to be very careful. Now, there are companies out there like Google,
20:45
for example, got multiple verticals. It's got YouTube, cloud,
20:51
it's a cloud leader. It's got its own TPUs now. It's
20:57
a vast empire. People often joke, Google is the internet. And
21:02
so you've got these companies that are earning tons of profit, got a hundred billion in cash. There
21:06
are certainly opportunities out there where it makes a lot of sense, where companies
21:09
are really going to they're
21:14
gonna become even more powerful with the likes of AI. So
21:18
there are some great opportunities out there, as long as
21:21
the valuations are reasonable. And that just means are you getting,
21:25
are they gonna be able to generate
21:28
profits based on their spending? That's all that matters, okay? So
21:32
if they can't, they'll fall hard, right? Now
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the other part that you can do is make sure you're diverse. So don't put all
21:39
your eggs in one AI basket, okay? You don't wanna chase the hype. I
21:42
see some portfolios in X and they're just all AI stocks. I'm like, these guys are gonna
21:46
get killed, right? So make sure you're diversified across sectors. Perhaps
21:49
you'll be in like, for example, I'm
21:53
in railroad, I'm in oil, I'm in healthcare,
21:57
I'm in certainly technology, but I'm in China tech, so it's
22:00
a little bit different to US tech, and I'm slightly a little bit in US tech, and
22:04
then a little bit of cash and some other things. So you have to be diversified. That's very
22:07
important, right? You don't need to just be all stacked in AI because you
22:11
have no sector diversification. Everybody knows to be a little bit diversified. And
22:16
then understanding that owning shares in companies that
22:19
survive the bubbles, that's a more astute way to
22:23
invest long term, right? And that's where I'm putting my money because the
22:26
companies that I'm investing in, I know that even through
22:30
a bubble burst, they'll come out stronger. And that's what
22:33
you want to do. You want to invest in companies that will do well either
22:36
which way, okay? And you've got to be very mindful of price. You
22:39
don't want to time the market. That's not a good, sensible strategy. What
22:43
I've done lately is I've got this thing called the 100-year portfolio
22:46
that I'm building, my own personal portfolio. And I've renamed it that
22:50
because I'm like, am I buying companies that have not
22:53
only withstood the last 100 years, that they can do it again, in
22:56
products and areas that are impossible to compete with? And
23:00
it's just changed my entire approach And I'm just so
23:04
much more excited about that because I don't have to worry about timing, disruption,
23:08
anything like that. And some companies in the AI race, they do tick a
23:11
lot of those boxes. So you don't wanna make emotional, hypey
23:15
decisions around AI, okay? Just protect yourself, diversify, focus on
23:18
the fundamentals, okay? If you don't know what fundamentals are, go
23:22
get my book, Money Buys Happiness, on the second page. There's a little cool little course that you
23:25
can do which will explain all that stuff, right? Moneybuyshappinessbook.com, go
23:28
check it out. Because the worst thing you can do is not
23:32
be educated and do nothing. That's the worst thing, right? Is not
23:36
understand what's happening, right? So I'm not here to tell you that it's all gonna
23:39
be bad and it's gonna, you know, it's a huge fallout and we're gonna go through a massive recession. I'm not saying
23:43
that. I'm saying that AI is changing the world. I'm excited about it.
23:46
Some insane things are coming, but it
23:50
may hurt you as an investor. When
23:55
Mark Zuckerberg gets on the news and he tells Trump, we're
23:59
going to throw 500 billion, they just throw these numbers around like nothing. they
24:03
have to generate a return from the capital. Otherwise, there's going to be capital destruction.
24:07
And that's what's going to lead to the AI bubble popping, right? Especially if
24:11
this circular money thing continues, which is why Michael Burry's put
24:14
a short bet on these companies, because he knows this too. It's just a matter of
24:18
time, right? So when it pops, a lot of people are going to lose a lot
24:21
of money. Don't be one of them. Protect your wealth, diversify,
24:25
focus on fundamentals. And if you found this video helpful, make
24:28
sure you hit the subscribe button because I'm going to keep tracking this
24:32
story. And when the bubble pops, you're going to want to know what to do afterwards.
24:36
There's going to be a fallout. Like, what do I do now? We're going to be doing lots of episodes on
24:39
this, right? So thanks for watching. Stay safe out there in the AI bubble
24:43
world, and I'll see you in the next episode. Thanks for listening to Money Grows
24:46
on Trees. If you enjoyed the episode, leave a five-star review on Apple
24:49
Podcasts and Spotify and subscribe to us on
24:52
YouTube so you never miss an episode. And if you're serious about building wealth,
24:56
make sure to check out the links in the show notes and follow me on all
24:59
social media platforms at LloydJamesRoss for