Latest / Blain's Morning Porridge
Outlook 2026: Conflict or Trade?
Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 12th, 2025 – Outlook 2026: Conflict or Trade?
“The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that once believed they were eternal.”
2026 Outlooks contain rosy predictions for stock market upside, calmer bond markets, the triumph of AI, and even a few who still say Bitcoin will rule us all. But the major Macro risk will be global trade – what happens as China and the USA face off? Trump has fractured the Western Alliances even as China’s trade and military strength give it all the options. What will Emperor Xi choose to do?
It is the time of the year for guessing…
The skinny
The skinny isn't ready yet — notes appear once the transcript is processed.