Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Everything Crashing!?🔥A.I. Bubble vs Crypto💥Market Update

Transcript

Everything Crashing!?🔥A.I. Bubble vs Crypto💥Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Everything is crashing today. We're going to break it down
• 0:02
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• 0:05
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  Speaker 1: guys are not want to go to miss this one.
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  Speaker 1: It is an awesome one. Let's just get right into it.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I want to take a look first at how much
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: is coming off the market. If you take a look
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: at this tweet, this kind of hits it on the head,
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: and that is one point one trillion wiped out from
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: the US stock market at the opening. That is not all, though, guys.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: We are talking about a conglomerate of wipeouts and including
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin down three almost four percent, Goal down two point two,
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Silver down almost five, the Kaspi nick hangsen Us futures
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: all falling. And is this what is happening? We've got
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: everything from heavy selling and AI and tech and semiconductors
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: and to now the Bank of Japan's recent hike is
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: tightening global liquidity. This is something we've been talking about
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: in terms of liquidity shifting into different markets. I'll explain
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: maybe where this might be going and how you might
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: be able to play this out. I want to go
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: over to a clip real quick though. This next clip
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: will break down a little bit of whether or not
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: you should be hedging against the AI play or others.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Take a look.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: This is health pull back, but you should still buy
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: them when they pull thatack.
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I think so, I still think it's an
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: opportunity now you have. You can't have a whole portfolio
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: full of them unless you're willing to withstand mornings like today.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: So what do you do with the rest of it?
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: If your whole portfolio can't be this correct?
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: Well, watch today?
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: What works?
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: You really want to have.
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: Some what I call we call non correlated positions in
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: your portfolio? Tonoculate yourself, all right?
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: So he said something that I think is very very
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: true and also wise for any investor out there, and
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: that is non correlated investments. If you look at this
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: peak chart right now and you compare the AI Big ten,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: this is the SMP. This is where we are right now.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: That's the correlation of the AI stocks and there's only
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: a handful that is holding up the top of this market.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: And that is a problem, guys, because the last time
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: we saw those kinds of situations was back in the
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: dot bomb era. Now, I know these are all different
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: kinds of companies. They have earnings versus Blue Sky, I
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: get that, but the fact that they are isolated so
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: much starts to make you wonder, is this maybe the
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: pullback that everybody has been looking for? Is this the
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: beginning of the pullback that everybody is looking for. One
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: way that you could take a look at that is
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: through capac spending. I want to go to a clip
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: here because it will talk about how this is going
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: to work out.
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: Time to bring out the pinking shares and trim the
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: positions in the MAC seven you might have to make
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: room for the new beneficiaries of artificial intelligence. Leslie marks
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: she manages one hundred and eighty billion dollars.
• 3:30
  Speaker 5: The primary driver of that is the amount of capital
• 3:33
  Speaker 5: or capital expenditures that these companies have to spend right now,
• 3:38
  Speaker 5: and that's impacting their free cash flow, which is why
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: you're starting to see equity issuance, increased debt issuance, or
• 3:45
  Speaker 5: capital raising. And this is a real change from the
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: stock buybacks that these companies have benefited from, so shrinking
• 3:52
  Speaker 5: their share count. Now we're starting to see and Alphabet
• 3:55
  Speaker 5: being the first one increasing the share account. So a
• 3:59
  Speaker 5: good time to take a little bit of profits and
• 4:01
  Speaker 5: start deploying that into other areas of the market.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: All right, guys, you know what that means. That's dilution
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: at its highest level. And I think this is where
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: investors are starting to go. And if you kind of
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: compare this and just look at the expansion and bonds.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: This is the example that she's talking about, and that
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: is these companies going out for money. They're diluting their assets,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: and of course that means deluding you as an investor.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: This is part of why we're probably seeing a little
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: bit of an early pullback. I wonder though, if this
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: is just the beginning, And if you think that is it,
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: listen to what Gareth Sollaway had to say.
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta. These stocks are getting crushed. The
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: breath is now razor thin, and we're seeing that now
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: in the charts. Lower high, lower low equal high lower low.
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: But you're still making lower lows. This is very clearly
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: in a downtread. Look at Microsoft, all right, right there,
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: this thing is topped, all right. Now going to Meta
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: Hi lower low. Look at this price action. The name
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: is high, but look it even made a lower low today. Yeah,
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: and Videos down today lower high, lower low, and look
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: bear flagging. This is going to break down. It's going
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: to break down, guys, all right.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: So if you believe what Gareth is talking about, we
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: are seeing the beginnings of a major pullback here as
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: we continue to see liquidations coming out of the market,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: one of the ones that, of course we've been watching
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: very closely as SpaceX. SpaceX of course slid overnight both
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: after the MSCI slapped SpaceX with its lowest ESG rating.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: The reason these are important is ESG ratings and also
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: how the MSCI looks at different stocks. This is important
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: because of how ETFs in different funds classify these stocks
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: for investment. So with that happening, and remember, and I'll
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: show you the SpaceX chart really quickly, because if you
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: look at we're SpaceX right now, this is on the
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: four hour, This is the pullback right here, all the
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: way back down to one point fifty. It is very
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: possible if Gareth is right, that we could see SpaceX
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: dropping back down to its one thirty five entry point.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: That would be a massive, massive loss on this stock.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: If you were involved in this less than a week ago,
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: which is when it was doing its run up. Let's
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: just do the pullback right here from its top right
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: there at two twenty five, pulling back down almost thirty
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: four percent right there in less than a week. That
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: is a major major hit on SpaceX. Let me know
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: if you guys ended up buying into that, I'm kind
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: of curious. This is one that we would not go into.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: It is something that we were concerned about because of this.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Now I'm looking at this rotation of capital that could
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: be a big factor rolling out from here forward, and
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: if we do see a major market correction, I think
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: SpaceX could be one of the ones that leads the way.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Here was another big hit, of course to Elon. SoftBank
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: CEO is now pushing back on the space data center plans,
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: and his issue right there was what's the point AI
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: data centers in space? I will say this, us On
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: is in many different companies that of course are going
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: to benefit from hyperscaling here on Earth. I guess it's
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: weird to say that, but yeah, he's investing in those
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: companies that do need that. So SpaceX is a bit
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: of a compromise to that idea, and I think that's
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: his pushback. But he may be absolutely right. It may
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: take too long for Elon truly to get to space
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: data centers, and that's the long play that you have
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: to kind of compare does it take too long to
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: get there for SpaceX. One other company to kind of
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: keep an eye on is Micron and the reason why,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: in if you guys don't know who Micron Technologies is. Basically,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: these are chip makers. They make memory that goes in
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: almost every computer out there, which of course is being
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: driven by AI. If we are seeing a tech sell
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: off right now, driven by these earnings anxiety that we're
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: looking at underneath the ETF structure. This is the concern
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: that JP Morgan has right now. If you look at
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Micron right now, let me go over to the chart.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: This is what we're looking at in terms of earning's day,
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: which is coming up here on Wednesday. It has an
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: estimate of twenty point eighty three per share, and then
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: you've got revenue estimates setting a thirty five billion. So
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: if they don't hit this and you're seeing a pretty
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: good fall off right here from almost twelve what is
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: that twelve thirty pulling back down almost twenty five percent
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: to one thousand dollars a share, which is insane. This
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: is something to keep an eye on because Micron could
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: be leading the way in terms of the hardware side,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: the picks and shovels side of where AI is going.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Is this giving a giving us a little bit of
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: an indicator of where this is heading. If you look
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: at the marketplace overall. Here's Zach Pandal talking about it.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin is stuck between stocks and gold, and you look
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: at the trend line that's coming down right now. Bitcoin
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: continuing to hold, but then a dip down right now,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: finally the S and P starting to slide slightly, but
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: gold precious metals absolutely falling off the chart right now
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: with God nearing four thousand a share, if it dips
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: under four thousand, that could be a major pullback in
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: the market as we see liquidity starting to shift either
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: to cash or prepping for another major rotation. Could crypto
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: be part of that? I want to go to a
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: clip real quick because this gets into how trad fied
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: is looking as if bitcoin is over take a look.
• 9:21
  Speaker 6: I don't know what to think about bitcoin anymore. I
• 9:25
  Speaker 6: wonder if bitcoin was a little bit sort of the
• 9:28
  Speaker 6: off ramp for everybody that wants to have something a
• 9:32
  Speaker 6: little bit more speculative. Yeah, now that we have this
• 9:35
  Speaker 6: big IPOs on one side and then we have stable
• 9:38
  Speaker 6: coin on the other, and I just wonder, like, well,
• 9:41
  Speaker 6: where is bitcoin now? So that's just my new thoughts
• 9:46
  Speaker 6: on points. I'm a little bit more worried and is
• 9:51
  Speaker 6: there going to be a ten trillion dollar company in
• 9:53
  Speaker 6: ten to fifteen years. I find that debate and trying
• 9:56
  Speaker 6: to figure out which of those companies might be a
• 9:59
  Speaker 6: ten in our company sort of easier for me than
• 10:03
  Speaker 6: figuring out where's bitcoin going to be in ten years?
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: So what's the answer to that question?
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: All right?
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: So what he's getting at there is that the growth
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: of these major markets the likelihood of a ten trillion
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: I think he's pointing toward Nvidia. There could be others
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: out there, including some of the other MAG seven or
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: AI ten. But I think the real question that you
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: have to consider right now is the rotation. This is
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: a tradi fi guy that is looking at Bitcoin fifty
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: percent off it's high, and now is wondering was that
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: the off ramp into alternative assets that are a little
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: bit more speculative, which is really has been the AI
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: play for sure. This is also starting to seep into
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: the global macro And the reason I say that is
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: what's happening in South Korea right now. Trading has been
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: halted in South Korea after stocks plunged ten percent on
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Black Tuesday. And there's a lot of reasons why. MSCI
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: is this index that essentially looks at the quality level
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: they designed the performance of large and MidCap segments in
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: the Korea market. Normally, these kind of countries are trying
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: to get into this and it's very rare that somebody
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: breaks through, and Korea was very very close, but it
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: was no cigar. That was what happened, and I think
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: that is why we're starting to see this pull down.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Korea fails again at MSCI Developed Markets threshold, aiming for
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: inclusion next year. A couple of points they're trying to
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: hit on right there. Morgan Stanley was talking about this
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: that it was thwarted. The government plans to include a
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: concrete improvement task. Things they've got to get done to
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: get this completed to be able to be ready for
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: July of next year. And this will be interesting because
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: if they do make it, and I think there's a
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: possibility and I'll explain why, but the MSCI Developed Market
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: has been postponed to June of next year. The key
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: thing for them, I believe, is going to be their
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: control of where the tech industry is going. If you
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: look at the companies that Korea has, you've got to
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: consider right here, and that is Samsung. This is the
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: one that I think has the most opportunity to be
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: able to bring them forward as a country into the MSCI.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: And let's just take a look at where Samsung's holding
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: right now, number twelve on the ranking South Korea right
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: now three hundred and seventy seven percent change in reference
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: to Samsung. Look at the kind of growth that they've
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: seen in market cap this is from seven to twenty six.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: They are on a blistering pace. This could mean some
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: pretty major moves for Samsung. And if we do see
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: them start to challenge Apple, this could get very interesting,
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: very quickly in how tech and the landscape of technology
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: is dictated over the next few years. Here's another one
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: right here. Private credit continues to hit or be hit
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: in the markets. Right now another private credit fund limits redemptions. This,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: of course is Apollos flagship private credit, now hit with
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: a seventeen percent redemption request. Private credit is a concern.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: It will be one of the factors that could really
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: thwart liquidity and availability of it. The Individual Investors Report
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: awarded roughly two point four billion of withdrawal requests. Think
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: about that right now, two point four billion out of
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: one fund. If this gets contagion effect. This could have
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: a major effect on the market in general, so pay
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: very close attention to what's happening there. Hood flips Coinbase
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: this is another one, and I think when you look
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: at where Robinhood has been, they have been able to
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: play both sides of this ipo mania and the crypto market.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: When crypto was down, the ipo mania was up. That's
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: why we're seeing Robinhood continuing to fly and Coinbase literally
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: right now on life support at one sixty four down
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: forty six percent one hundred and forty two in the
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: past year, versus right there up thirty eight percent plus
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: twenty nine in the past year. Those are the kind
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: of numbers that we're facing right now, and it is
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: a bit of a concern because I think as we
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: see more companies playing the dual asset mandate, this is
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: a key actor whenever you see capital rotation, and that's
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: exactly what's been going on in the market. So as
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: you can see, crypto is not the only way you're
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: going to do this. You can see DeFi Lama all
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: of what we are seeing traditional, which is mostly in
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: the AI side. Again, don't get caught out there on
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: the long and I think Gareth, going back to Garrett's clip,
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: I think he might be onto something. The real question
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: is twenty percent pullback? Is that enough in a major
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: market like this, because that would be catastrophic in general,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: and it might be the window that everybody's kind of
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: been pointing to. Can you imagine what would happen in
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: the midterms if the markets were down anywhere between fifteen
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: and twenty percent, that would be catastrophic, I think for
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: the Republicans going into the midterms. Speaking of what the
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: White House is up to, you've got JD. Vance on
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: the Iranian trail and he's out there trying to do
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: something in terms of salvaging a deal. Listen to what
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: he had to say.
• 14:55
  Speaker 7: We and this is probably what we're most excited about
• 14:58
  Speaker 7: as Americans. The Iranians have agree to invite IAEA inspectors
• 15:02
  Speaker 7: back into their country. That is a major milestone for
• 15:05
  Speaker 7: the American people.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: Vance says that they invited the inspectors back in. Then
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: you have, of course Iran saying no, we didn't say that.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: It's not really the way we're talking about. They're disputing this.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: The MoU keeps current inspections unchanged and depends on future talks.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's what he was referencing. I don't know. I
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: can't imagine he doesn't have facts there, but maybe he's
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: interpreting it differently. Problem is is that we seem to
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: have this ping pong effect of White House says one thing,
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: Iran says another. Another thing that's going on is Trump
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: and his claims he's going at this, which is nineteen
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: million barrels of oil flowing through the Strait yesterday. This
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: was an all time record according to Trump. And I
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: don't know who's telling the truth here, guys. We're hearing
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: from Trump one thing, the White House another. Then you
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: have all of these kinds of data points, and most
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: of this has been ships that are sanctioned via Iran.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: So I don't know, guys. It's getting to the point
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: where you just don't understand or there's not enough information,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: or maybe there's too much information coming out of what
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: these negotiations are yielding. But we are in a tight
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: spot right now with trying to get this deal off
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: the table. Perhaps the biggest issue that faces crypto right
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: now is still clarity. This would be huge for the
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: markets because you could you imagine right now if we
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: were to get Clarity coming through or an indication that
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: the Senate would let this go through, what that would
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: do to the markets in a downturn. This could be
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: the exact recipe for being able to see a rotation
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: of capital, because you know, all major media in terms
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: of finance media would be talking about this. But this
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: is the concern right now. There are a lot of
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: things at stake, major projects and companies are depending on
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: this getting through, Ripple being one of them. So I'm
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: surprised we have not, even though r has been doing
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: a lot to try to get this through. I am
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: surprised that we are not singing a fire sale coming
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: at Congress right now, especially with this dropping to forty
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: three percent. This is the lowest that Clarity has been
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: since January, when we were literally dead on arrival before
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: coming out and actually getting passed through the Senate committee.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: This concerns me in a big way. One other thing
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: that I want to mention, and that is we're going
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: to be doing a video tomorrow. We'll play this on
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: two ways because there's a couple of angles that we're
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: looking at and watching you guys stick around for that one.
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: Right now, we're looking at this market very very closely.
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: If you like this video, like and subscribe, drop a
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: comment down below, and also join our free private member group.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: The link is in the description.