Latest / Let's Talk Trail Running / 2025 Hong Kong 100km Fantasy Trail Picks

Transcript

2025 Hong Kong 100km Fantasy Trail Picks · Let's Talk Trail Running

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: Hello and welcome everyone to Let's Talk Trail.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: My name is Robert and I am a trail running fan,
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: participant,
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: aficionado,
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: and somebody who just really enjoys talking about trail running.
• 0:15
  And I'm kind of just experimenting with something predominantly
• 0:18
  focused on fantasy
• 0:20
  free trail picks for upcoming trail races and really just
• 0:23
  talking about trail
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: racing in general.
• 0:25
  If you're anything like me,
• 0:26
  there's no such thing as too much trail running media.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know about you guys,
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: but whenever a race preview comes out,
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: I'll listen to just about any one.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: And there's no such thing as too many.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: So I figured sometimes I find myself when I'm listening to podcasts,
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: kind of shouting into my headphones,
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: either different places or races or runners.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: And so if you're like me,
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: then that's kind of where this podcast is coming from,
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: is additional thoughts and things like that.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: A little bit of background.
• 1:00
  I live in Colorado Springs currently,
• 1:02
  and I've been living here for about a year.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: On the trail running side of things, I'm pretty into fantasy free trail.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: Last year, I found myself 17th overall, and the year before that, 11th.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: So just missing out on those top 10 spots, but really just enjoying it.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: I've never participated in any kind of fantasy activities before this,
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: but for whatever reason,
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: trail running
• 1:24
  really gets me going it's exciting and fantasy free trail is uh
• 1:29
  has made me more
• 1:30
  exciting than any other fantasy sports even though i am a
• 1:33
  american sports fan um
• 1:36
  and yeah so uh i feel like where i want to start this podcast
• 1:41
  uh i think i want to
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: start by looking forward uh to the first uh
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: trail running race on the fantasy calendar of the year.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: And so far as I can tell, that is the Hong Kong 100k.
• 1:56
  So I kind of just want to talk some about picks,
• 2:01
  my picks specifically for the race.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: These are all subject to change.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if you're anything like me.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: But that means that you are constantly changing your picks.
• 2:09
  Keep updating it in case anybody drops in the race and making
• 2:12
  last minute decisions
• 2:15
  to flip people in and out of spaces or to randomly add somebody
• 2:20
  when you hear
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: somebody positively talked about them.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: So once again, the first race of the year is the Hong Kong 100K.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: And this one, apologies in advance.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to do my best to pronounce all the Chinese athlete names.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: China is definitely somewhere where the trail running scene seems crazy.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: They obviously have a huge population,
• 2:42
  and I can only imagine there are a ton of really good trail
• 2:46
  runners that we're only
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: starting to see the likes of in European and American races.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: So it will be kind of fun to speak about.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: With regards to the Hong Kong 100K,
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: looking at the men's and women's side,
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: on the women's side,
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: starting with them,
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: my...
• 3:09
  Top two picks are kind of floating between two somewhat
• 3:13
  familiar faces from the
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: race scene last year,
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: and that's going to be Lin Chin and Anna Lee,
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: both who ran at Western States.
• 3:27
  I have a little bit of ambiguity because most people in the
• 3:32
  live chat identified
• 3:35
  annalee as the one who uh dropped i believe at the river
• 3:39
  crossing but was holding
• 3:40
  her own in third place there um but for a lot of the race lynn
• 3:44
  chin actually was
• 3:46
  identified as one of the top five runners and i was looking
• 3:49
  back through uh the
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: western states um their
• 3:55
  uh,
• 3:55
  live rankings of runners in Lynch and was in the top five
• 3:58
  through like mile 70.
• 3:59
  I want to say,
• 4:00
  uh,
• 4:00
  and she has some other really strong,
• 4:02
  uh,
• 4:02
  results to her name as well.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, including a fourth at UTMB last year.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: Um,
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: And then she wins pretty frequently in the Chinese scene,
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: although she did have three DNFs last year.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: Just observationally speaking,
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: it feels like the Chinese runners race a lot more than we do in the West.
• 4:24
  But yeah,
• 4:25
  I mean,
• 4:25
  she did have a lot of,
• 4:27
  let's see,
• 4:28
  first at Hong Kong 100 actually last year.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: So that's a big part of me having her up in that top two spot.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: first at Chengdu,
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: fourth at UTMB,
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: first at Transjeju in Korea,
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: and then some DNFs at Ultra Trail Ninghai and Saegu,
• 4:48
  and then coming back with a win at UTMB Malaysia and second
• 4:53
  place at Chiang Mai Thailand.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: That's Lin Chen once again.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: And then, like I said, I kind of got up between her and Anna Lee,
• 5:01
  Anna Lee uh her season last year uh once again lots of racing
• 5:06
  uh for some of these
• 5:08
  Chinese athletes so Chengdu Trail 20k first place uh not gonna
• 5:15
  try to pronounce
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: that but a second place at a 50k Mount Yun uh first place that's 100k
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and then Western state, she had the DNF.
• 5:24
  So a lot of people have been identifying her as the one who was
• 5:26
  up there in the race.
• 5:26
  And I think she was top three,
• 5:27
  but I think Lin Chen was also up there too.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: I'm pretty sure we had two Chinese athletes in the top five at the time.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and then for Lin Chen, excuse me, Anna Lee.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: Chong Li, 168K, she got first place.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: UTMB, she had a DNF.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: Ultra Trail Ninghai, she got second.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: Saigu Trail, she got third.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: And then Chiang Mai, Thailand, she got third.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: So I kind of see it back and forth.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: I think I'm actually leaning a little bit more towards...
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: Lin Chen versus Anna Lee.
• 6:00
  But I think it's pretty likely we will see these two females in
• 6:06
  two of our top
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: three places,
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: I guess.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: But my guess would be the top two.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: Coming in at third place, I'm looking at Hua...
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: which I'm sure I'm not pronouncing that very well.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: But the Vietnamese athlete for third place.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: And she, I'm going to pull up her results from last year.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: She has been on a pretty impressive running streak.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: Looking at her 2024,
• 6:40
  so I feel like she kind of came on the scene with that fourth
• 6:43
  place at CCC in 2023.
• 6:46
  Really impressive race there and kind of brought her into a lot
• 6:49
  of people's attention.
• 6:50
  Looking at her 2024 year,
• 6:52
  some of the highlights,
• 6:55
  Ultra Trail Singapore first place.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_00: She raced CCC again last year and got another fourth place.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_00: So back-to-back CCC fourth places.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: Looking at her time as well, pretty similar within eight minutes.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: No, excuse me, within two minutes.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: So really consistent at CCC these past two years.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: Then second place at UTMB Malaysia, 100K.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: And then first at Chiang Mai, Thailand, 50K.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: So she's been pretty consistent.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_00: And I feel like she,
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_00: looking at her UTMB biography,
• 7:29
  it says she was born in the mountainous Van Son village in
• 7:33
  northern Vietnam.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: She began running when she was in high school.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: Even though she was an excellent athlete,
• 7:37
  she was refused entrance into a university to study to become a
• 7:41
  PE teacher.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: This was not because of her grades or ability,
• 7:45
  but strictly due to not meeting the height requirement of 155
• 7:48
  centimeters because
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_00: she's only 153.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: After this, she moved to Sapa, Vietnam to begin her work career.
• 7:55
  Ten years later,
• 7:55
  she found herself divorced,
• 7:57
  out of shape,
• 7:57
  overweight,
• 7:58
  and with a child.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: This was all she needed to begin running again.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: After two months of training,
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: she entered her first trail running race,
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: the 21K distance of Vietnam Mountain Marathon in Sapa.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: That first overall win was the gun start of a successful running career,
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_00: the limits of which still need to be discovered.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: So pretty awesome story.
• 8:15
  Kind of crazy that countries just arbitrarily can limit people
• 8:19
  based off their heights.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: And yeah, I have her pretty solidly as my third place pick.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 8:29
  coming up in my one second uh my pick for fourth place i'm
• 8:36
  looking at ying lee and
• 8:41
  if i'm not mistaken she went top five at utmb or excuse me at
• 8:45
  hong kong 100 last
• 8:46
  year i'm gonna pull per intro results uh so looking at her 2024
• 8:50
  so ying lee she's a
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_00: hoka athlete oh no excuse me kayla's um
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: And she had a pretty busy 2024.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_00: I guess I'll pick some of the highlights.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: So Chengdu 50, she got first place.
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_00: Ultra Trail Ninghai, she went seventh.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_00: Let me see if she also had... Yeah, she did do the Hong Kong 100.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: She got second place.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_00: So that's part of me getting her in that top five.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: Course familiarity and also having previously raced the course.
• 9:24
  But looking at her results last year,
• 9:26
  a lot of sub-Ultra stuff with a few 100Ks sprinkled in.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_00: And then she also did Ultra Trail Ninghai 7th place.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: What else?
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: Shenzhen 50K, she DNF'd.
• 9:40
  So I'd say I probably have her up there largely because of her
• 9:44
  result at the race last year.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_00: I was...
• 9:49
  also so and then in fifth place i'm looking at soon maya buddha
• 9:53
  um a lot of us that
• 9:55
  are fans of fantasy free trail are probably familiar with her
• 9:58
  she's a nepalese
• 9:59
  athlete um she came on the scene and made a splash uh a couple
• 10:06
  years ago winning
• 10:07
  let me double check what it was i feel like it was ccc or occ
• 10:11
  but she's also raised
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_00: some golden trail series as well um
• 10:19
  Let's see,
• 10:20
  Marathon du Mont Blanc and Manasseh Mountain Trail Race,
• 10:23
  she won.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: And then, yeah, Marathon du Mont Blanc, excuse me, she's gotten seventh.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_00: And then she's had some other wins by UTMB races.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: CCC is the one she had a breakout race that got second place.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: And then kind of had up and down years.
• 10:40
  Last year,
• 10:40
  looking at Sunmaya Buddha's racing,
• 10:44
  she raced Four Sisters Mountain Trail,
• 10:46
  got 12th.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_00: She did Transvaulconia and got third place.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: And then Marathon de Mont Blanc, 13th.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: She DNF'd OCC.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: I think I might have had her in my picks there.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: And then Saigu Trail, she won.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: In Chiang Mai, Thailand, she got fourth.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: So a very good, very consistent racer.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_00: Definitely, I feel like one of the fan favorites.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: She has also a very cool story coming from Nepal.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: And...
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, just somebody to look out for.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's pretty likely she cracks the top five,
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: and I could even be wrong with having her too low.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: In my fifth place pick,
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: or she was my fifth place pick,
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: other considerations I had looking at the list,
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: Ronghua Deng.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: She was right on the edge of top five.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: I want to say either five or six last year.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: I was considering throwing her in there.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and I think that's mostly it.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I'll be doing pretty good if I get three to four out of the top five.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of times it's hard to get five point getters.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and I suspect that I'm definitely gonna be missing some people.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: That are going to sneak into that top five.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_00: Apologies for total mispronunciations.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_00: Or anything that's just not very close.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_00: So looking at the men's side.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_00: Going for my top five.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_00: I guess I'll start in fifth place.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: And kind of go the other way around.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_00: Guaidou.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: So G-U-I-D-U-Q-I-N.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_00: That's how I'm informed it is supposed to be pronounced.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_00: And I could still be wrong.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: So I got him rounding out my top five in fifth place,
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_00: looking at his UTMB results from last year.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_00: So it was charted in 2024.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_00: So he went fourth at Hong Kong 100 last year.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_00: second at Chengdu25.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_00: And then let's see, he was second.
• 12:49
  He was actually the one who ran down Courtney DeWalter at Mount
• 12:53
  Fuji 100 miler and
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_00: barely beat her out.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: I want to say within like a few minutes in that 100 miler.
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_00: CCC, he had DNF, Ultra Trail Ninghai, he had third place.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_00: And then Saigu Trail 105, he had second place.
• 13:07
  A lot of these Chinese guys race a lot and you'll kind of see
• 13:12
  some of their names up there.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_00: You'll see
• 13:14
  I'm actually curious to see some of these guys that are on the
• 13:18
  start list for Hong
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_00: Kong 100 are also planning on racing Black Canyon.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_00: And I think if there's anything that we've learned from...
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: some of the more popular Western races,
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: whether it's,
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: Western States or Black Canyon,
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: or even some of these UTMB,
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: trail finals,
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: like OCC,
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_00: CCC,
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_00: these Chinese guys,
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_00: or at least,
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: the ones that tend to race in the West,
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: it would seem they can really come out hot and they like to,
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_00: to run from the,
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: from the gun,
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_00: up front.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: And sometimes it pays off and sometimes they kind of fade.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but it is definitely fun to watch as a fan.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_00: So,
• 13:58
  that keeps me curious,
• 14:00
  uh,
• 14:01
  looking at my fourth place for the men's picks.
• 14:04
  I got,
• 14:05
  uh,
• 14:05
  Pekwon you,
• 14:06
  uh,
• 14:08
  looking at his results from last year,
• 14:11
  we've got 2024 results.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, he also raced.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_00: So once again, uh, and he's actually on the list.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_00: I think I just already mentioned this,
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_00: but he's on the list for black Canyon again this year,
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_00: but last year he did back to back,
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: Hong Kong 100 and Black Canyon at Hong Kong 100.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_00: He got second place.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_00: Black Canyon,
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_00: he DNF'd,
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_00: but I think he was up there with a lead pack through the first 50K or so.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: He went back to China and raced another 100K.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: And then he kind of ran it back.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: So basically last year he did Hong Kong 100K.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: And then about three weeks later,
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: he came to Black Canyon,
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_00: went back to China,
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_00: raced 100K and won it,
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_00: and then came back to the States to race canyons.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: Exactly two weeks later, DNF'd.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: So talk about racing a lot.
• 14:59
  And then a week later,
• 15:00
  race to 50K,
• 15:02
  the Jungle Thailand UTMB 50K and got second place.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: So we're talking a lot of racing.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_00: Race another 100K, got first, went to CCC and DNF.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: So kind of hit and miss.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: Doei Ithenon Sky 30 got eighth.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_00: Ultra Trail Ninghai, he got 7th.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_00: Saegu got 7th.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: And then Chiang Mai by UTMB, he DNF'd.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: So kind of a wild card, kind of up and down.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_00: Not as many DNFs.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: I would say one of the things when I'm looking at free trail picks...
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of times if an athlete is kind of like explosive,
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_00: like they could win it or DNF,
• 15:44
  it's tough for me to pick them because it's kind of like an all
• 15:49
  or nothing.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: Either you, it's more likely to keep you off getting points.
• 15:55
  I feel like you're picking somebody who,
• 15:56
  you know,
• 15:57
  DNFs like every other race.
• 15:58
  And obviously there's no predictor on exactly which one's will
• 16:01
  DNF or if it's legit,
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_00: every other one.
• 16:05
  but my general rule of thumb is to be weary of people who DNF a
• 16:09
  lot of races.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: They can be big risk,
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: big reward,
• 16:12
  kind of like more investing in smaller businesses in the stock
• 16:17
  market or more risky
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: investments where they can be really big risk,
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_00: really big reward,
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: but it's generally not going to be that low and slow growth.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_00: And so I guess I do have him in my top five and I am just...
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_00: uh, disagreeing with myself or, uh, or not following my own rule.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_00: Um,
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_00: but I think more often than not,
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_00: he seems to have these kind of real,
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_00: these kind of trail races,
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_00: locked down.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_00: So,
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_00: um,
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_00: going back up the list for third place,
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_00: I have the Romanian Raul Butaci,
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_00: and,
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: it seems like him and I know Christiane
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_00: Manoli raced together a lot.
• 17:01
  I would say that at least one of those two is going to be in
• 17:04
  the top five,
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_00: and I can't really tell which one,
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_00: quite frankly.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_00: I think either one would be a good choice.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_00: It seems like with both of them,
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: ironically,
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: I imagine they must be good friends,
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_00: but I could be totally wrong.
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_00: Both of them, Romanians living in Spain in some mixed results last year.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_00: Some really good ones, though, too, for both of them.
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_00: I guess I'll start with Raul Butachi, who I picked myself.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_00: One second.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_00: So looking at Raul Butachi's results from 2024, he led it off.
• 17:42
  He did a race in Spain,
• 17:44
  got second place,
• 17:46
  essentially a mountain marathon.
• 17:47
  But the big result that impressed me and I think a lot of other
• 17:50
  people last year,
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_00: he went into Trans-Gran Canaria with Zach Miller,
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_00: Jiaxing Shen,
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_00: who else we had,
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_00: the Spanish runner...
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_00: A little bit older, I can't think of his name.
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_00: And just beat some really heavy hitters.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_00: Miguel Haras, that's who it is.
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: Abel Caritaro, Andrew Simon, Imerich.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_00: And really just,
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think a lot of people were expecting him to win that one,
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_00: at least coming from my half.
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_00: But he, Raul Butace, went first.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_00: And then I know Cristiano Cristiano Manoli went third.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_00: So that kind of woke me up to both of them.
• 18:32
  It seems like these guys do really good early season with that
• 18:35
  training in Spain.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_00: They kind of have that early season fitness.
• 18:39
  And then it kind of,
• 18:40
  they kind of had their ups and downs throughout the year.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_00: He did do a lot of racing.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_00: So we're still talking about Raul Butachi.
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_00: He did the Transvolcania and got 16th place.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_00: So not as good of a day there.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_00: And then did Val Duran and had a DNF.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: UTMB had a DNF.
• 18:57
  But then he kind of came back at the end of the year and kind
• 18:59
  of redeemed himself
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_00: with a third place at Solomon Ultra Piranu.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_00: I guess looking on the flip side,
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_00: kind of mentioning that these guys,
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_00: I had at least one of them in my top five.
• 19:08
  I wouldn't be surprised if two of them go in the top five or at
• 19:11
  least in the top 10
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_00: to where they're getting points.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, so looking at, I know Christiane Manoli, um, his 2024 season.
• 19:20
  So yeah,
• 19:21
  he raced in pretty much,
• 19:23
  uh,
• 19:25
  a lot of the same races that,
• 19:28
  uh,
• 19:29
  Rob Butachi did.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_00: So his 2024, he did that same, uh,
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_00: Mountain Marathon.
• 19:35
  SPEAKER_00: So maybe they tied for first in Spain.
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_00: He did Trans Grand Canary.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_00: He got third place.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_00: He did Trans Volcania.
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_00: He got fifth place.
• 19:42
  So they kind of swapped in getting the better of each other at
• 19:46
  Trans Grand Canary
• 19:46
  SPEAKER_00: and Trans Volcania.
• 19:48
  He did the European Off-Road Championships,
• 19:50
  didn't have as good of a day there,
• 19:51
  21st.
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_00: Swiss Canyon Trail, he got the 111k, he got fifth place.
• 19:56
  SPEAKER_00: Valderan, a big race in Spain, he got fourth place on the 50k.
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_00: And then he did UTMB, had a DNF.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_00: And then Ultra Trail Ninghai, he got fifth place.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_00: So it seems like these guys get a good bit of traveling in,
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_00: like to travel together and race a good bit around the world as well.
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_00: Let's see.
• 20:25
  Coming in at,
• 20:27
  so in front of them,
• 20:30
  one,
• 20:30
  so for my second place pick on the male side,
• 20:34
  Somebody who's a little bit more familiar in the Western scene
• 20:37
  because of his
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_00: success in Western races.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to go with Shen, Jiaxing Shen, for my second place pick.
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_00: And I think I was jaded because I picked him in something.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_00: maybe UTMB that he DNFed or something else.
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_00: But he really had a consistent year last year.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_00: And I think I kind of underrated it.
• 21:01
  But now that I look at his results,
• 21:03
  I mean,
• 21:03
  he is really one of the most consistent racers.
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_00: And he doesn't really have bad days or miss quite frequently, honestly.
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_00: Just looking back, I mean, even so two years ago, fourth place at CCC.
• 21:19
  SPEAKER_00: He wins a lot of the stuff in China, fourth place at Western in 2023.
• 21:23
  really fast times at Sears and all he got a 243 there second at
• 21:28
  CCC in 2023 and
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_00: behind only John Albin and then eight that Western States but I mean ran
• 21:35
  essentially the same time that got him fourth place the year
• 21:37
  before also did Sears
• 21:40
  and Allegan last year 255 a little bit slower but not bad at
• 21:44
  all DNF to UTMB but
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_00: then he came back and kind of smashed it he did the
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_00: Ultra Challenge Beijing got third place there.
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_00: Did a 55k in China first place.
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_00: North Face Hong Kong 100k.
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_00: They're 55k.
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_00: He did that and he got first place there.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_00: And then a 50k.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_00: He raced two 50ks on back-to-back days and won them both.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_00: which is kind of interesting to see.
• 22:21
  I don't know if that was like a back-to-back long run strategy
• 22:24
  or what the plan was there,
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_00: but I think he's a pretty safe bet for a top five spot.
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_00: Would not be surprised if he won this at all.
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_00: And then looking...
• 22:39
  at the number one spot I've got Guangfu Meng uh looking at his
• 22:44
  2024 results he uh
• 22:47
  did 100 he won the 100k last year so I guess I got him a repeat
• 22:51
  winner and even
• 22:52
  going back into uh previous years before that that might be the
• 22:58
  only year he's
• 22:58
  raced it yeah it's the only year I have him racing Hong Kong
• 23:02
  100 but I guess I have
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_00: him as a repeat winner
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_00: And looking even at his results last year, he's got some speed.
• 23:09
  SPEAKER_00: He went and raced starting in 2024.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_00: So he raced Hong Kong, got the win.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_00: Swiss Canyon Trail, he got fourth.
• 23:16
  He came over to the US and did a broken arrow and got fifth
• 23:19
  place in the 46K.
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_00: So some really good like speed.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_00: Also a 251 at Sierras and now.
• 23:24
  SPEAKER_00: Won the 100K Adidas Terrix Chong Li.
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_00: Ultra Trail Ninghai won that.
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_00: Saigu 50K, he got second.
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_00: I want to say only behind...
• 23:34
  SPEAKER_00: Roy Ueda, if I'm not mistaken.
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_00: And then Chiang Mai, Thailand second for the 50k.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_00: And then the next day he did the 12k.
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_00: And it looks like he just kind of took it easy for the most part.
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_00: All right, so that covers our men.
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_00: Sorry about that.
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_00: Interruption, that was a call on my girlfriend's MacBook.
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_00: And yeah, so that rounds out of the top five men.
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_00: So once again,
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_00: looking at Hong Kong 100K,
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_00: I've got in the men's side of things,
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_00: Guangfu Meng going first,
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_00: Jiaxing Shen going second,
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_00: Raul Butachi going third,
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_00: Pei Kuan Yu going fourth,
• 24:23
  SPEAKER_00: and Gui Du Chen going fifth.
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_00: On the women's side, I've got Lin Chin on the first spot.
• 24:30
  SPEAKER_00: Anna Lee going second.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_00: Hua Ha Ti going third.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_00: Ying Lee going fourth.
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_00: And Sun Maya Buddha going fifth.
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_00: Other considerations for the men.
• 24:43
  SPEAKER_00: I think that easily,
• 24:45
  SPEAKER_00: like I said,
• 24:45
  two of the Romanians could be in that top ten and could both be
• 24:47
  point getters.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_00: I'm kind of just choosing one.
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_00: And I think Guaoming Ding could also be in that top five.
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_00: easily.
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_00: Um, who else?
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_00: Uh,
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_00: Danny young,
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_00: Italian runner,
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_00: good at long mountain courses,
• 25:07
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_00: has a good UTMB index.
• 25:10
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, I suspect he could go the back half of the top 10.
• 25:12
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think of him as, as quite as fast of a runner.
• 25:16
  SPEAKER_00: Um,
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_00: but looking at his results from last year,
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_00: let's see,
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_00: Translantau was his 2023 Translantau.
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_00: He went second place in the Translantau
• 25:26
  100k uh which i believe yeah is in hong kong um doesn't look
• 25:31
  like the density of
• 25:32
  competition was quite there um and then looking at 2024 chiang
• 25:37
  mai thailand he got
• 25:38
  eighth place in the 100k uh he did a mallorca 50k he did the
• 25:44
  100k at the austria
• 25:46
  SPEAKER_00: and utmb event
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_00: Ultra Trail Snowdonia, 100K, he tied for first place.
• 25:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so I could see him being up there.
• 25:54
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know that he's quite as fast as some of these Chinese guys,
• 25:57
  but I could see him getting some points and being in that top
• 26:01
  10 spot that gets you points.
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_00: So that's food for thought.
• 26:05
  Um,
• 26:05
  so that's looking forward to the first race of 2025,
• 26:10
  excuse me,
• 26:11
  2025.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and excited for it.
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_00: It looks like it's January 18th.
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm recording this on Monday, January 13th.
• 26:19
  And then,
• 26:20
  uh,
• 26:20
  that means it's about three days,
• 26:22
  uh,
• 26:23
  till the results close.
• 26:25
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sure I'll change my result, my picks.
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_00: I'll shuffle them around, add people, drop people.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_00: And just like many of you
• 26:32
  probably refresh it a million times just to make sure the
• 26:35
  biggest buzzkill is when
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_00: you pick somebody who doesn't even start the race.
• 26:39
  That is the easiest way to not get points is to have somebody
• 26:45
  on the start list
• 26:46
  that are in your picks that's not even on the start list
• 26:49
  because you can never get
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_00: points with that.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_00: So that's looking forward to the first race of 2025.
• 26:55
  SPEAKER_00: I'm excited about it.
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_00: Let me know what people I left out,
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_00: who your picks were,
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_00: and let me know how much I butchered the pronunciations in that case.
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_00: On the horizon, looking forward to some Black Canyon picks.
• 27:15
  SPEAKER_00: If you're anything like me, last year was crazy.
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, Huberter, Carrera, Casas going second place.
• 27:21
  SPEAKER_00: Somebody without even an interest score, I want to say.
• 27:24
  SPEAKER_00: So,
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_00: excuse me,
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_00: not it's real ultra sign up,
• 27:27
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know,
• 27:27
  SPEAKER_00: just somebody that really came out of nowhere,
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_00: especially with how dense Black Canyon is,
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_00: and the variety of runners it gets,
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_00: having that kind of crossover where you're getting really,
• 27:36
  SPEAKER_00: really good mountain athletes,
• 27:37
  but you're also just getting really fast marathon runners kind
• 27:39
  of meeting.
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_00: It kind of feels like Black Cannon, in my opinion.
• 27:44
  SPEAKER_00: It's kind of like the Sierras and Al of ultra distances.
• 27:47
  SPEAKER_00: And by that,
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 27:48
  Sierras and Al is kind of a evenly suited service where you get
• 27:52
  some of the best
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_00: road runners and the best trail runners,
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_00: mountain runners,
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_00: whatever you want to call them,
• 27:56
  SPEAKER_00: coming together and kind of doing battle on what seems to be
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_00: I would call it an evenly suited course.
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_00: I do think it favors mountain runners a little bit more,
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_00: but it is really,
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_00: really cool to see the best athletes clashing.
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_00: And with Black Canyon,
• 28:10
  SPEAKER_00: it's a longer distance,
• 28:11
  SPEAKER_00: obviously 100K,
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_00: but it's much more runnable terrain.
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not saying it's not technical.
• 28:16
  SPEAKER_00: But it doesn't have those crazy elevation changes.
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_00: There's not as much hiking.
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_00: You can pretty much run the whole race.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_00: And in my opinion,
• 28:22
  it feels more accessible to those guys that are making the
• 28:26
  crossover from elite marathoning,
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_00: elite track and field,
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_00: and things of that nature.
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_00: So really curious to see.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_00: I just kind of started going through the start list for that.
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_00: Picks aren't really final.
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_00: or it doesn't appear as if you can pick for the race yet,
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_00: but I'll be looking forward to when you can.
• 28:50
  SPEAKER_00: And for right now, that'll just be the trail preview for Hong Kong 100.
• 28:56
  SPEAKER_00: It sounds like a beautiful race.
• 28:58
  Definitely someplace I would like to go in the future and a
• 29:00
  race that I would love to do.
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_00: People cannot speak highly enough about Hong Kong.
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_00: So I'll be excited to see how it shakes out.
• 29:08
  It was cool having some American presence with Rachel Drake and
• 29:12
  Tyler Green last year.
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_00: And I'll be curious to see how this year,
• 29:16
  SPEAKER_00: how it comes to be,
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_00: especially being a world trail major for 2025.
• 29:23
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure if it was last year as well.
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, once again, that is Let's Talk Trail.
• 29:29
  SPEAKER_00: And I am Robert.
• 29:32
  And I look forward to talking trail with you guys in the future
• 29:36
  and doing some more of this.
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, in the meantime, let me know what you think.
• 29:41
  SPEAKER_00: what you liked, what you didn't like, and what I could talk more about.
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_00: Cheers.