Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / All-Time High S&P 500!🚀Crypto Technical Analysis w/ Evan Aldo

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All-Time High S&P 500!🚀Crypto Technical Analysis w/ Evan Aldo · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:06
Speaker 1: S and P hits an all time high. Could crypto
0:08
Speaker 1: be the next major market to fall? We're gonna take
0:11
Speaker 1: a look at that. My name is Paul Burner. Welcome
0:13
Speaker 1: back in a tech path. Let's get going today. I
0:15
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1:01
Speaker 1: let's get into it today. Of course I want to
1:03
Speaker 1: bring on mister Evan. Although who's going to be charting
1:06
Speaker 1: with us today? How's it going going?
1:08
Speaker 3: Fantastic? Always an honor to beyond Paul. Thanks.
1:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to show Evan's channel before we get started.
1:14
Speaker 1: And as you guys can see right there, man, you're
1:16
Speaker 1: getting close to twenty k You're like, right there, Okay,
1:19
Speaker 1: we got to push this thing across the line. Twenty
1:21
Speaker 1: thousand subs.
1:23
Speaker 3: We'll get there.
1:23
Speaker 1: On to Evan, Let's get it done. Let's get it done. Hey, listen,
1:29
Speaker 1: We've got big news out here, and that is the
1:31
Speaker 1: S and P five hundred futures officially now entering a
1:34
Speaker 1: new all time high territory. Big question here, Evan, is
1:38
Speaker 1: is this the end or are we seeing a forever
1:41
Speaker 1: up cycle, which a lot of analysts are kind of
1:43
Speaker 1: pointing to. What do you think about S and P
1:45
Speaker 1: right now, especially as you look at stocks and treasuries.
1:49
Speaker 3: I don't think it's the end just yet, or you know,
1:52
Speaker 3: the end for really well. I mean, let's look at
1:54
Speaker 3: the RRS and P five hundreds. I mean it's breaking upward,
1:57
Speaker 3: you know. I think you may have a shot into
1:59
Speaker 3: the end of the year at around seven hundred, which
2:01
Speaker 3: would be a pretty big drop jump up. And if
2:04
Speaker 3: you look at from kind of where we started the year,
2:06
Speaker 3: that'd be about a ten you know, fourteen thirteen percent
2:09
Speaker 3: return on the year, which is kind of in the
2:10
Speaker 3: average range of the S and P five hundred. So
2:12
Speaker 3: if you think this is an average bullust year for
2:15
Speaker 3: the S and P five hundred, then your end is
2:17
Speaker 3: probably not until like the end of the year sometime
2:19
Speaker 3: in interesting next year. And now if you look at
2:22
Speaker 3: you know, more of the short term timeframes, your money
2:23
Speaker 3: flow still looks good. I mean, continuation there generally looks
2:27
Speaker 3: like you can keep going. If we want to get
2:29
Speaker 3: more of like a you know, conservative let's see if
2:32
Speaker 3: we can draw maybe there's some fiblows the missing area
2:34
Speaker 3: that was the next fib blow right there. But if
2:36
Speaker 3: we look into like, you know, some of these right
2:38
Speaker 3: here when you're in price discovery mode from that area,
2:40
Speaker 3: yeah you got some of six thirty, you know, six
2:43
Speaker 3: fifty are going to be areas. But I generally think
2:45
Speaker 3: you could keep going into the end of the year.
2:47
Speaker 3: The one thing that worries me a little bit is terrists,
2:49
Speaker 3: But I don't even think that'll be too bad.
2:51
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, topping sixty one hundred almost sixty two
2:55
Speaker 1: is to me when you look at the number of
2:59
Speaker 1: stocks that are starting to end now. Granted we have
3:01
Speaker 1: a lot of overheated stocks, even from Circle, even though
3:03
Speaker 1: it's retraced, but in Vidia has been part of this.
3:06
Speaker 1: If you look at just a lot of the stocks
3:08
Speaker 1: that we're tracking right now, within that group you've got
3:11
Speaker 1: you MicroStrategy and video Meta, almost all of these are
3:15
Speaker 1: up significantly, even though the big retracement right there. I
3:18
Speaker 1: know I'm on the weekly right there with Circle Robinhood.
3:21
Speaker 1: Of course, this has been a crazy We're gonna chart
3:24
Speaker 1: this one in a second, but this could get good, good,
3:27
Speaker 1: interesting into the fall, especially as things kind of come around.
3:30
Speaker 1: Remember Trump actually called the bottom here. Remember that day
3:35
Speaker 1: He actually said this is a great time to buy
3:37
Speaker 1: and bam, look at that.
3:40
Speaker 2: Off we go to the races.
3:42
Speaker 1: I want to get into a clip though and break
3:45
Speaker 1: this down for you because I think this is something
3:46
Speaker 1: that when you look at what is going to affect
3:50
Speaker 1: the markets the most. What would you say, Evan, do
3:53
Speaker 1: you feelix Tariff's ray cut, Which route would you take?
3:57
Speaker 3: Well, it depends on what markets. I think rake huts
4:00
Speaker 3: the number one thing that will help all coins and
4:02
Speaker 3: finally give us our quarter for all coin season. That's
4:05
Speaker 3: what I think you'll see a lot of stuff happen there.
4:07
Speaker 3: In terms of tariffs, I think you could get a
4:09
Speaker 3: little bit of fear. You know, you always get one
4:12
Speaker 3: red month in the summer. I have a feeling it
4:14
Speaker 3: will probably be August for most likely crypto inis and
4:17
Speaker 3: P five hundred. When you see that, you know, pullback
4:19
Speaker 3: and that may have to do something with tariffs. But
4:21
Speaker 3: I don't think tariffs are going to be too big
4:23
Speaker 3: a deal, at least nothing compared to what we saw
4:25
Speaker 3: earlier this year.
4:26
Speaker 1: I feel like you might be right here now, and
4:29
Speaker 1: this is why I want to play a clip for you,
4:31
Speaker 1: and then I'll explain here in a second.
4:33
Speaker 2: Let's go to the clip, Jamison.
4:35
Speaker 4: Everybody, everybody wants to make a deal and have a
4:40
Speaker 4: part of it, right. I know you and Howard and
4:43
Speaker 4: Scott are working overtime making deals with other countries. You
4:48
Speaker 4: remember a few months ago the press was saying, do
4:50
Speaker 4: you really have anybody of any injury as well? We
4:54
Speaker 4: just signed with China yesterday, right, just signed with China.
4:57
Speaker 4: We have everybody. We're not going to make deals with
5:00
Speaker 4: with everybody some We're just going to send him on
5:01
Speaker 4: letters say thank you very much, you're going to pay
5:03
Speaker 4: twenty five thirty five forty five percent. That's the easy
5:07
Speaker 4: way to do it. And my people don't want to
5:08
Speaker 4: do it that way. They want to do some of it,
5:10
Speaker 4: but they want to make more deals than I would do.
5:12
Speaker 4: But we're having some great deals. We have one coming
5:15
Speaker 4: up maybe with India, very big one. Well, we're going
5:17
Speaker 4: to open up India.
5:20
Speaker 2: All right.
5:21
Speaker 1: So this is the thing I'm getting at, is he
5:23
Speaker 1: casually mentions a deal with China. So I'm wondering if
5:27
Speaker 1: the market is kind of to your point, is looking
5:29
Speaker 1: at tariffs a little bit less concerning knowing how Trump
5:33
Speaker 1: has now shown how he negotiates basically, you know, these
5:37
Speaker 1: bombastic moves and then he reels back and then he
5:41
Speaker 1: does a taco move, and you know, that kind of
5:44
Speaker 1: situation could be boiling into some things. However, with that
5:48
Speaker 1: being said, you got to look at the Dixie man.
5:51
Speaker 1: We are looking at also unemployment insured unemployment people that
5:55
Speaker 1: have filed for unemployment insurance out there right now. This
5:58
Speaker 1: has grown to one point nine almost two million people,
6:00
Speaker 1: highest since twenty twenty one. The Dixie breaks below ninety
6:04
Speaker 1: seven eyes ninety five point one three. This would be
6:07
Speaker 1: a multi year low, especially after this correction with the GDP.
6:11
Speaker 1: So you got the FED now coming into the question,
6:14
Speaker 1: you know, and I put out that tweet showing that
6:16
Speaker 1: now there's retail that's getting hit. This is the restaurant
6:19
Speaker 1: industry getting hit in a big way. So that means
6:22
Speaker 1: job loss. And when you see Powell say we're finally
6:27
Speaker 1: having pressure on jobs, wouldn't you think that the FED
6:31
Speaker 1: rate cut is the next move?
6:34
Speaker 3: Yeah? I mean, if you look at the betting odds
6:36
Speaker 3: you're looking at, I mean, I guess it could happen
6:38
Speaker 3: in July, but it's looking at more like September, October, December,
6:41
Speaker 3: you'll actually seen cuts. I think if we see more
6:44
Speaker 3: pressure for that, or we see the markets come down
6:47
Speaker 3: in July, you might be able to squeeze out a
6:49
Speaker 3: rate cut in July. But I think S and P
6:51
Speaker 3: five hundred, it's still at all time highs. I don't
6:53
Speaker 3: think they're going to do it so so soon. I
6:55
Speaker 3: think they're going wait till September.
6:57
Speaker 1: So yeah, well, I think the key here is just
7:00
Speaker 1: leaning in to when these tariffs finalize. Of course, best
7:03
Speaker 1: right here talking about a trade deal with China could
7:05
Speaker 1: finalize by the Labor day, remember though he was shooting
7:08
Speaker 1: for July fourth. So that is a pushback that concerns
7:11
Speaker 1: me a little bit in terms.
7:12
Speaker 2: Of market cycles.
7:13
Speaker 1: If we are thinking market cycle, and then you've got
7:17
Speaker 1: best to talking about tariffs on China are down to
7:20
Speaker 1: thirty percent. I don't know what the original I think
7:22
Speaker 1: it was like forty percent. So did it get cheaper
7:24
Speaker 1: for China to do business here? I know US tariffs
7:28
Speaker 1: are down, so that is a good positive move. And
7:32
Speaker 1: you've got the cryptos are talking about the fact that
7:34
Speaker 1: we could see the Genius Act or the Genius Bill
7:38
Speaker 1: and the Clarity Act getting all done as maybe this summer,
7:43
Speaker 1: So those would be major moves, all these things kind
7:46
Speaker 1: of coming together at one time. Is that the kind
7:49
Speaker 1: of thing that you think will push the number for
7:55
Speaker 1: bitcoin in terms of where we are right now kind
7:57
Speaker 1: of hovering around the one ten mark. If you look
7:59
Speaker 1: at the card, where do you feel like bitcoin is
8:02
Speaker 1: by end of summer?
8:04
Speaker 3: Yeah, so let's go right to our bitcoin chart right here.
8:07
Speaker 3: And I think you know with all the things you mentioned,
8:09
Speaker 3: the Genius Act, all that it's looking like July is
8:12
Speaker 3: probably going to be. I know we've talked about June,
8:15
Speaker 3: by end of June getting up to one fifteen one twenty,
8:17
Speaker 3: I think it was a little bit delayed with the
8:18
Speaker 3: Iran stuff. Now that that's over, now we can hopefully
8:21
Speaker 3: by the end of July get up to this range
8:24
Speaker 3: right at one twenty right here, And it looks really
8:26
Speaker 3: good on your chart, especially this trigger wave with the
8:29
Speaker 3: money flow coming back up on the two day. That's
8:31
Speaker 3: really good for a run up right here. And we've
8:33
Speaker 3: been in this range. We're trying to break to the
8:35
Speaker 3: top of this break out of this range that would
8:37
Speaker 3: be one technal target right around one fifteen. So that'd
8:39
Speaker 3: be kind of my low one fifteen to one twenty
8:42
Speaker 3: by the end of July with the Genius Act and
8:45
Speaker 3: all this type of stuff. And like I mentioned, probably
8:48
Speaker 3: not to be the bringer of brad news, not that
8:49
Speaker 3: much bad news, but there's always one red month when
8:52
Speaker 3: a little summer low. August could be where you come down.
8:55
Speaker 3: You retest these big levels, and then you get your
8:58
Speaker 3: final run up from September with those rate cuts and everything,
9:01
Speaker 3: your real kind of all coin season, your final run
9:04
Speaker 3: up somewhere between let's say one thirty to one fifty
9:07
Speaker 3: into the end of year, So I'm really looking at
9:09
Speaker 3: some more like this right here.
9:11
Speaker 1: So yeah, okay, so you're playing this for July being
9:14
Speaker 1: very aggressive in terms of growth, possibly up to one
9:17
Speaker 1: twenty on bitcoin, a retracement in August, and then a
9:21
Speaker 1: blow off top towards the end of the year. Do
9:23
Speaker 1: you think that is I mean when you look out
9:25
Speaker 1: long term obviously you know, not financial advice, but people
9:29
Speaker 1: are kind of considering bitcoin as maybe a retirement plan
9:33
Speaker 1: or you know, we just saw big numbers on both
9:36
Speaker 1: millennials younger millennials gen zuh and now what will most
9:42
Speaker 1: likely be alphas is they start to move into their
9:44
Speaker 1: investment years transitioning toward digital assets and bitcoin being one
9:48
Speaker 1: of the leaders. Do you think that this is a
9:51
Speaker 1: forever up on bitcoin? Where do you feel the top
9:54
Speaker 1: would be on bitcoin in this in this next cycle?
9:58
Speaker 3: So in this cycle, well, I think the top is
10:01
Speaker 3: going to be well, like I mentioned, one thirty to
10:03
Speaker 3: one fifty in the next cycle, the highest I really
10:05
Speaker 3: see is going is maybe somewhere three hundred to four
10:08
Speaker 3: hundred K. And then I think you're gonna get your
10:11
Speaker 3: typical bad kind of decade where you may end. That'll
10:15
Speaker 3: be by the late twenty twenties, early twenty thirties to
10:18
Speaker 3: three four hundred K, maybe even five hundred K, who knows.
10:20
Speaker 3: But then I think you'll kind of see that fifty
10:22
Speaker 3: percent correction like you normally see when you go into recessions,
10:25
Speaker 3: probably when the next recession will be, you know, Then
10:27
Speaker 3: you get that fifty percent of correction, maybe down to
10:29
Speaker 3: one hundred two hundred, you know, kind of that range,
10:31
Speaker 3: and then I think you may be kind of sideways,
10:33
Speaker 3: maybe an eight year bear market or your kind of sideways.
10:35
Speaker 3: Then you end the twenty thirties back at that four
10:38
Speaker 3: or five hundred K, and then the twenty forties is
10:40
Speaker 3: finally what I mean, it's I know, it's not speculative.
10:42
Speaker 3: It's a lot of things right here, but this is
10:44
Speaker 3: going on. What markets generally do you have two good
10:46
Speaker 3: decades and one bad decade that I've never seen Big
10:49
Speaker 3: One came out in two thousand and nine. Technically I
10:52
Speaker 3: never seen an asset do good for more than two
10:54
Speaker 3: decades in a row. You always have one bad decade
10:56
Speaker 3: after two good days.
10:57
Speaker 1: Generally, Well, well, we're most likely going to see a
11:00
Speaker 1: major shift. Also, I think in the technology array that
11:03
Speaker 1: is going to push a lot of companies in the
11:05
Speaker 1: right direction, which which will be AI driven and the
11:08
Speaker 1: more crypto projects that kind of fall around that, which
11:11
Speaker 1: we probably don't even know the number of companies are
11:14
Speaker 1: going to be built out of this that will be
11:16
Speaker 1: blockchain derivatives that we'll be able to trade from a
11:18
Speaker 1: token standpoint. So it's going to be close to watch
11:22
Speaker 1: Bitcoin long term holders now stacking eight hundred thousand bitcoin
11:26
Speaker 1: per month, so this is a record hole run. That
11:29
Speaker 1: should be a sign going into the end of year.
11:32
Speaker 1: Back to your point, maybe the one forty one fifty range.
11:36
Speaker 2: Which would be good.
11:37
Speaker 1: Let me ask you, would you play this cycle selling
11:41
Speaker 1: your bitcoin at one point fifty and waiting.
11:43
Speaker 2: For a retrace? Would you do that or would you
11:47
Speaker 2: try to.
11:47
Speaker 1: Look at long term I'm going to hold bitcoin for
11:50
Speaker 1: five to ten years.
11:52
Speaker 3: It really depends on your tax you know, implications and
11:55
Speaker 3: all that. How risky you want to be. I mean,
11:57
Speaker 3: if you're going to sell bitcoin at the end of
11:59
Speaker 3: the year at a hundre or fifty k, the plan
12:01
Speaker 3: would be to probably hold into later quarter three or
12:04
Speaker 3: quarter four of twenty twenty six and getting back at
12:06
Speaker 3: your typical, you know, sixty to seventy percent correction around
12:09
Speaker 3: fifty k or something like that. I would definitely sell
12:12
Speaker 3: some of mine, especially stuff if you have it in
12:15
Speaker 3: retirement accounts or things, or there's no tax applications. But
12:18
Speaker 3: you got to look at your tabs and implications and
12:20
Speaker 3: all that. Because of fifty percent correction, you may be paying,
12:23
Speaker 3: you know, at the closes that level in capital gains
12:25
Speaker 3: taxes for some people, So be careful, be.
12:28
Speaker 2: On the watch for that.
12:29
Speaker 1: I want to go to a clip here because this
12:31
Speaker 1: is going to line up a couple of issues that
12:33
Speaker 1: we're facing right now with the Genius Act and also
12:36
Speaker 1: with the Clarity Bill, if we end up or the
12:39
Speaker 1: Clarity Act, when and if this actually happens, meaning that
12:43
Speaker 1: they split apart, because they've been talking about trying to
12:45
Speaker 1: get these two at the same time. Now I'm hearing
12:48
Speaker 1: from a lot of people that that may not necessarily
12:50
Speaker 1: be the case. Let me go to a clip real
12:51
Speaker 1: quick and get your opinion.
12:54
Speaker 5: I think we'll get stable cooin legislation done before the
12:56
Speaker 5: August three says I think. I do think though that
13:00
Speaker 5: market structure could take some time. This is not a
13:03
Speaker 5: popular opinion. I think A lot of people will be
13:05
Speaker 5: mad at me for saying this, but when I go
13:08
Speaker 5: and talk to both Republican and Democratic offices in the Senate,
13:12
Speaker 5: they're like, it took us four weeks to get market
13:14
Speaker 5: structures or to get stable coin and excuse me through
13:18
Speaker 5: the Senate floor, like, give us a minute here. We
13:20
Speaker 5: need to take a breath and regroup and start at
13:23
Speaker 5: the beginning. And you know they're just now starting to
13:26
Speaker 5: do hearings over on the Senate side. We haven't seen
13:29
Speaker 5: any legislative text. And I think that that could push
13:34
Speaker 5: market structure into next year. And I think that's fine.
13:38
Speaker 2: All right.
13:39
Speaker 1: So if market structure gets separated, and I shouldn't say separated,
13:42
Speaker 1: if it just gets moved down the road, we get
13:45
Speaker 1: stable coins coming through with the Genius Act, that'll give
13:48
Speaker 1: a little bit of benefit, I think, to the primary categories,
13:52
Speaker 1: including ethereum.
13:53
Speaker 2: But obviously this could have.
13:54
Speaker 1: An effect on all coins going in. Do you think
13:57
Speaker 1: that the all coins can run without the market Structure
14:01
Speaker 1: bill coming through?
14:03
Speaker 2: If let's just kind of paint this.
14:06
Speaker 1: Out, we get a stable coin bills, Genius Acts is done,
14:11
Speaker 1: Genius Bill is done, and then of course we're dealing
14:15
Speaker 1: with maybe a FED rate cut. Do you feel like
14:18
Speaker 1: ETH can run on its own without the need for
14:22
Speaker 1: clarity around market structure?
14:26
Speaker 3: I think Eth, you know, yeah, I think youth can
14:28
Speaker 3: run on its own. I think, you know, it's kind
14:30
Speaker 3: of what's going to happen. I think is that you're
14:32
Speaker 3: in ETH season. You're generally in the place where ETH
14:35
Speaker 3: does really well for the next you know, a few
14:37
Speaker 3: months here outperforms the majority of all coins. Then once
14:40
Speaker 3: you get to the place where you get those rate cuts,
14:43
Speaker 3: maybe even the passage of this bill, I think that
14:45
Speaker 3: maybe a little bit early. I think we may have
14:46
Speaker 3: to wait till September for quarter four to really be
14:49
Speaker 3: your all coin season. But I think it's eight season now.
14:51
Speaker 3: And then after once you get those two things, mostly
14:54
Speaker 3: the rate cuts, then you get that all speculation and
14:57
Speaker 3: they do really, really well. So right now, next couple
14:59
Speaker 3: of month to eat season, I think.
15:01
Speaker 1: Well, and you think about this is what Tom Lee
15:03
Speaker 1: was saying. He says Ethereum is the backbone of stable coins,
15:06
Speaker 1: one of the most significant financial innovations last twenty years.
15:09
Speaker 1: And again, if we get clarity now, the good thing
15:12
Speaker 1: is is that I think the market.
15:14
Speaker 2: Gives a little bit of foresight here on.
15:17
Speaker 1: That they see that it's coming. And yes, there's a
15:19
Speaker 1: good alignment as long as you don't lose the Senate
15:23
Speaker 1: and you can control how that plays out, which is
15:26
Speaker 1: going to be interesting because that's next year. So timing
15:30
Speaker 1: is going to be very important here to play this
15:32
Speaker 1: out for market structure. Let's take a look at the
15:35
Speaker 1: eighth chart right now and give me your opinion through
15:38
Speaker 1: the summer and then by end of year.
15:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, so eth is probably one of the best looking chart,
15:44
Speaker 3: a very good looking chart right now. The first thing
15:46
Speaker 3: I'll show you, similar to Bitcoin this it doesn't get
15:49
Speaker 3: too much better in that you've got some good courage
15:51
Speaker 3: or money flow going from red to green. You got
15:53
Speaker 3: a trigger wave right here. So I mean a lot
15:55
Speaker 3: of these do really well. I mean, I guess you
15:57
Speaker 3: could say, like worst possible case scenario probably be you know,
16:00
Speaker 3: something like this, But really when you look at previous
16:03
Speaker 3: ones we've seen, I mean, this one right here was
16:06
Speaker 3: a huge kind of run up. I mean, you're gonna
16:08
Speaker 3: get the minister turns at well, no, that's not even that. Okay, yeah,
16:11
Speaker 3: it's not even that. By the end of July, you
16:13
Speaker 3: could be at I would say hopefully that thirty two
16:16
Speaker 3: hundred range, maybe even at the episode top four thousand
16:19
Speaker 3: before a correction. Most likely what I would think would
16:22
Speaker 3: happen would be up to somewhere around here thirty two hundred,
16:25
Speaker 3: and then you kind of get that summer lull, you
16:27
Speaker 3: retest kind of that twenty eight hundred area, getting a
16:31
Speaker 3: red August or something, and then into the end of
16:34
Speaker 3: the year you get a lot more momentum up here
16:36
Speaker 3: and then finally make some new all time highs and
16:39
Speaker 3: potentially get up to somewhere between five thousand to seventy
16:43
Speaker 3: four hundred is a big place I'm looking at right here.
16:47
Speaker 3: The last thing I'll show you real quick. This is
16:48
Speaker 3: a really rare it's on regular candles to be and
16:51
Speaker 3: I can actually pretty soon this trigger wave right here
16:54
Speaker 3: on the monthly That confirms obviously in just a couple
16:56
Speaker 3: of days now that this look at this big run
16:59
Speaker 3: up right here, the last one before this, two huge
17:02
Speaker 3: run ups right there. So I think it's very likely
17:05
Speaker 3: that you're going to make a new all time high
17:06
Speaker 3: based on that by the end of the year for etherorum.
17:09
Speaker 1: So a conservative new all time high on the outside,
17:13
Speaker 1: maybe a seven K range on ethereum in general. So
17:18
Speaker 1: let's go back to our bitcoin for a second. If
17:21
Speaker 1: you look at bitcoin in the short term, because we're
17:23
Speaker 1: running around one oh seven right now, do you feel
17:25
Speaker 1: like bitcoin is going to retrace back down over the
17:27
Speaker 1: next ten days to one oh four or do you
17:30
Speaker 1: think one ten happens first in the next one.
17:34
Speaker 3: That's a million dollar question. I would guess that we
17:37
Speaker 3: should be able to continue bullish, probably, but there's always
17:40
Speaker 3: going to be a correction Friday. You're coming into the weekend.
17:42
Speaker 3: It wouldn't surprise me to come down a little bit,
17:44
Speaker 3: chase away some lungs, then come up, you know, in
17:46
Speaker 3: a few days. You know, always how shorts involved.
17:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, and remember that, you know we're moving into a
17:50
Speaker 1: holiday week, which July fourth, next Friday. Sometimes those weeks
17:54
Speaker 1: are very volatile. If you go back and look at
17:57
Speaker 1: previous history on a lot of these, that's interesting.
18:01
Speaker 2: Back to ethereum.
18:02
Speaker 1: So, as we all know, the and I think for
18:05
Speaker 1: some of you guys maybe you're not fully understanding, is
18:07
Speaker 1: that there is a company out there right now that
18:09
Speaker 1: is starting to try to build a micro strategy of
18:13
Speaker 1: ethereum concept. And they were a software company, a company
18:16
Speaker 1: by the name of sharplink Gaming now Joseph Lubin, who
18:20
Speaker 1: came over from the Ethereum Foundation. I mean not over,
18:23
Speaker 1: but he is sitting on the board. He's obviously consensus.
18:27
Speaker 1: You look at what sharplink is doing, and I'm going
18:29
Speaker 1: to play a clip for you guys so you can
18:31
Speaker 1: kind of get your head around this because it could
18:33
Speaker 1: have a big effect on Ethereum for sure.
18:35
Speaker 2: Let's go to that clip. I'm sure you know I'm
18:38
Speaker 2: going to ask about sharplink. Was it contributed in kind
18:41
Speaker 2: or bought on the open market? What can you tell
18:43
Speaker 2: us about how it's a masked it's ethereum.
18:46
Speaker 6: We race to market. We knew we needed to go
18:49
Speaker 6: very fast once we identified the target company. We brought
18:53
Speaker 6: in a ton of investors, and we left a whole
18:56
Speaker 6: bunch of investors on the sidelines who wanted to participate
19:00
Speaker 6: but couldn't get things done in time. So A it
19:03
Speaker 6: was done in US dollars. B We're talking to lots
19:07
Speaker 6: of new investors with lots of US dollar capital and
19:10
Speaker 6: lots of Ether capital, so we'll see a lot of
19:12
Speaker 6: Ether moving into sharp think very soon.
19:16
Speaker 4: As well.
19:17
Speaker 6: We may do some things that bring a bit of
19:21
Speaker 6: leverage into the situation, invertible equity, potentially bond issuance at
19:27
Speaker 6: low rates with long duration, we will not put the
19:31
Speaker 6: strategy at risk.
19:33
Speaker 1: All right, So very strategic and how they're going to
19:36
Speaker 1: go about it, eth is their play. They're either going
19:39
Speaker 1: to become the micro strategy of Ether or they're going
19:41
Speaker 1: to lead it in terms of the number of companies.
19:44
Speaker 1: When you look at aspat the chart, because this is
19:46
Speaker 1: a stock that you guys can buy, and a lot
19:49
Speaker 1: of people are kind of moving that direction, trying to
19:51
Speaker 1: play the angle on some of these crypto stocks. How
19:53
Speaker 1: does this one look?
19:56
Speaker 3: It looks you know, you got to be cautious about
19:59
Speaker 3: something like this like as BET because you know, obviously
20:02
Speaker 3: the volatility is just insane here. But you are hitting
20:07
Speaker 3: excuse me, some support kind of at this area. You're
20:10
Speaker 3: forming what could be you know, the more short term
20:12
Speaker 3: verse head and shoulders. That's pretty good. If you can
20:14
Speaker 3: break out a kind of this range we've been in,
20:17
Speaker 3: you may be able to get back up to twenty
20:18
Speaker 3: two twenty two dollars, especially if he goes up to
20:20
Speaker 3: thirty two hundred or something. So you know, they mentioned
20:23
Speaker 3: leverage all those type of things. It definitely can break
20:25
Speaker 3: up higher. I you know, you gotta be careful. It
20:28
Speaker 3: does look good, you know, some money flow coming up
20:30
Speaker 3: on a lot of these timeframes. Get a trigger wave
20:32
Speaker 3: right there. I you know, a good goal for this.
20:35
Speaker 3: You know, I'd be happy if you can get up
20:36
Speaker 3: you know, to thirty eight dollars. I mean, I would
20:38
Speaker 3: say probably best case scenario, maybe you could get that
20:41
Speaker 3: seven to ten x here. It's very hard to say, Paul.
20:44
Speaker 3: I mean, the thing I will say too is that
20:47
Speaker 3: you could just copy them and buy eth on leverage.
20:50
Speaker 3: You don't need to, you know what I mean. You
20:51
Speaker 3: could kind of do a copy and get a similar
20:53
Speaker 3: results potentially interesting in mine.
20:57
Speaker 2: That's a good angle too.
20:58
Speaker 1: And I think as we start to see and some
21:01
Speaker 1: of the companies that are playing that angle of let's
21:03
Speaker 1: put eth on treasury and then especially if they're publicly
21:06
Speaker 1: traded and they're building a brand around it, like what
21:08
Speaker 1: they're doing. And remember, Joseph Lubin, this is meta mask guy,
21:11
Speaker 1: all right, consensus, this is all meta masks. This is
21:15
Speaker 1: huge investment opportunity. And if they start playing in partnerships
21:20
Speaker 1: and access to money which is already out there in
21:23
Speaker 1: the crypto space into a publicly traded company. I mean,
21:26
Speaker 1: I feel like it's a very similar strategy to what
21:30
Speaker 1: micro Strategy and Michael Saylor have done. Moving on to
21:34
Speaker 1: Robin Hood. Robin Hood's got a big move happening next
21:37
Speaker 1: Monday the thirtieth, as you can see, and I'm going
21:40
Speaker 1: to kind of zoom in on that surprise Robin Hood
21:43
Speaker 1: app announcement.
21:44
Speaker 2: At eth CC.
21:45
Speaker 1: This is over in Canns right now on June thirtieth. Now, guys,
21:50
Speaker 1: we have been talking about this for a while. What's
21:52
Speaker 1: interesting this is John He's been on our show before,
21:55
Speaker 1: and it's intriguing to me because I'm not sure what
21:59
Speaker 1: they got up their sleeve. I still feel like this
22:03
Speaker 1: is going to be something that's related to a chain development.
22:06
Speaker 1: But at the same time, all of this is being
22:08
Speaker 1: done at eat CC. So listen, this is what they
22:12
Speaker 1: call him right there, the Unexpected, So they kind of
22:14
Speaker 1: have a theme for each one. This is the guy
22:16
Speaker 1: that's gonna do the announcement and they call him the unexpected.
22:20
Speaker 2: So this could get.
22:22
Speaker 1: Intriguing on what Robin Hood does in terms of this
22:26
Speaker 1: could go layer one route, This could go the route
22:30
Speaker 1: of jumping into arbitrum. There's many angles that this could
22:33
Speaker 1: play out going forward. If you're looking at the Hood stock,
22:37
Speaker 1: because this is another one that's almost at all time high, well,
22:39
Speaker 1: I think it is all time high. Would you make
22:41
Speaker 1: an investment in Robin Hood right now with the current situation.
22:46
Speaker 3: Well, let's see, let's look at this stock. So, I mean,
22:48
Speaker 3: obviously you know it's come up a lot. This is
22:51
Speaker 3: a huge area. It's your old all time high. I
22:55
Speaker 3: personally think you might be able to perform this if
22:57
Speaker 3: you buy eth right now. But I think some good
23:00
Speaker 3: goals for this, you know, in the next few months
23:02
Speaker 3: or into the end of the year, would be somewhere
23:04
Speaker 3: between one hundred to one thirty five. I mean, if
23:06
Speaker 3: I think you're probably going to follow this trajectory that
23:09
Speaker 3: you've seen since April, and that would bring us up
23:11
Speaker 3: to one thirty five into sometime, you know, August, and
23:15
Speaker 3: to end a year potentially. So I think there's some
23:17
Speaker 3: potential here. I mean, if you want to be really
23:19
Speaker 3: lenient with the technoal target, I guess you could argue,
23:22
Speaker 3: you know, if you break upward from here, the next
23:23
Speaker 3: place would be around two sixteen. That'd probably the highest
23:27
Speaker 3: I could see you go into the end of the year,
23:28
Speaker 3: so potentially a double here. So yeah, I mean it
23:31
Speaker 3: looks good. Be careful with it. It is robin Hood.
23:33
Speaker 3: I mean, look at what happened when it the inception
23:36
Speaker 3: of it, when it first came down. I mean, what
23:37
Speaker 3: was this a ninety psient correction, So it will probably
23:41
Speaker 3: correct over fifty percent at some point, but I think
23:43
Speaker 3: into the end of the year it should go somewhere between,
23:46
Speaker 3: you know, one hundred to two hundred.
23:47
Speaker 1: I would argue, I like you, I like your strategy
23:49
Speaker 1: of moving into eth you know, leveraging on eight if
23:53
Speaker 1: you wanted to get a little bit more risky, especially
23:56
Speaker 1: because if Robinhood does an announcement that's even even close to
24:00
Speaker 1: ethereum layer one or something of that nature, that could
24:02
Speaker 1: be huge for the industry. You look at Base, which
24:07
Speaker 1: of course is very competitive in this arena. They are
24:10
Speaker 1: getting ready to launch a pretty big update on their wallet.
24:13
Speaker 1: This is happening on July sixteenth, so be on the
24:15
Speaker 1: lookout for that. Most likely this is going to involve
24:18
Speaker 1: some DeFi activity, maybe on aerodrome, which is what everybody's
24:23
Speaker 1: kind of anticipating that this could be the decks that
24:26
Speaker 1: would be integrated into coinbase if that were to happen.
24:30
Speaker 1: And you look at the Aerodrome's chart right now, what
24:33
Speaker 1: do you feel like on aerodrome?
24:36
Speaker 3: So when we look at this one, yeah, I mean
24:37
Speaker 3: it is a riskier one right here. It's coming up,
24:40
Speaker 3: it's making higher lows. It's been doing better than a
24:42
Speaker 3: lot of all coins since April. You got your nice
24:45
Speaker 3: trigger wave here on the five day. It looks pretty good.
24:47
Speaker 3: You know, I think that you got a decent shot
24:50
Speaker 3: of breaking up above here, getting up to potentially a
24:53
Speaker 3: double or a little bit more right from yeah, I
24:56
Speaker 3: mean a little less than double, excuse me, up to
24:58
Speaker 3: a dollar thirty six, and then if you can break,
25:01
Speaker 3: you know, I mean maybe with this announcement, I would
25:03
Speaker 3: guess very speculative, be careful, maybe into end of July.
25:07
Speaker 3: Some point July, get into that point, you get a
25:09
Speaker 3: little summer low, you come back down and scare everybody away.
25:12
Speaker 3: Then when you finally see that all season somewhere from
25:15
Speaker 3: old all time highs at two dollars thirty five cents
25:18
Speaker 3: all the way up to new all time highs at
25:20
Speaker 3: three dollars fifty cents. So you know, I mean, I
25:23
Speaker 3: would say best case scenario into the end of the
25:25
Speaker 3: year three hundred four hundred percent something like that, whereas
25:28
Speaker 3: scenario maybe a redection of dollars thirty at old time.
25:31
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think the key here is, you know,
25:35
Speaker 1: it's kind of the Coinbase moniker. Once you put the
25:38
Speaker 1: crown on, once you're tied into Coinbase. I feel like
25:41
Speaker 1: when you get tied into base and if they do
25:43
Speaker 1: become the decks, I don't know, I feel like there
25:46
Speaker 1: would be enough transaction, revenue, the opportunity of exposure just
25:52
Speaker 1: the trading pool alone, when you think about the size
25:55
Speaker 1: of coinbase and what that might look like much less
25:59
Speaker 1: wallet going forward. So I'm a little bit more aggressive
26:02
Speaker 1: if in fact they do go that route.
26:04
Speaker 2: So just pay attention out there. Let's move into XRP.
26:08
Speaker 1: Big news this week they're partnering with Wormhole now to
26:13
Speaker 1: bring multi chain interoperability, and what apparently was a slowdown,
26:18
Speaker 1: I want's call it. It just seems like they've moved
26:21
Speaker 1: away from the potential of Axelar being involved. Axelar was
26:25
Speaker 1: a big play, but it had not made the transition
26:29
Speaker 1: into getting this done, so I think there has been
26:31
Speaker 1: some frustration in this.
26:32
Speaker 2: This is good news but at.
26:34
Speaker 1: The same time it is and showing a little bit
26:37
Speaker 1: of deviation on Ripple's part in general when you look
26:41
Speaker 1: at this, but what about Ripple and XRP as a whole.
26:45
Speaker 1: Do you like XRP right now as an investment or
26:47
Speaker 1: would you.
26:48
Speaker 3: Wait, I like XRP overall. I mean, I think I'm
26:51
Speaker 3: biased for eth right now. I think Etho I perform
26:53
Speaker 3: most of the halts for the next few months. But
26:55
Speaker 3: I really like XRP here, and let's look at the
26:58
Speaker 3: chart right here. When we look at you know, kind
27:00
Speaker 3: of a giant you know, reverse hiad and shoulder situation forming.
27:04
Speaker 3: Nice jump from there. You're getting your trigger waves, well
27:07
Speaker 3: not exactly trigger waves here, but money flow coming up
27:09
Speaker 3: in some trigger waves in these higher time frames forming.
27:12
Speaker 3: And I think you got a really good shot of
27:13
Speaker 3: into maybe even this month, back up to the high
27:17
Speaker 3: twos somewhere like that into this month, so I'd be
27:20
Speaker 3: a decent jump up forty and then maybe a little
27:23
Speaker 3: dilly dally or summer lull or something, and then into
27:26
Speaker 3: your end of year, your real ali cooint season somewhere
27:29
Speaker 3: between four to six dollars has always been my target
27:32
Speaker 3: for the end of year for this, so I think
27:34
Speaker 3: you're going to look something like this. It's a pretty
27:36
Speaker 3: safe bed, I think.
27:37
Speaker 1: So yeah, for four to six, you got to think
27:39
Speaker 1: about what are some of the indicators that could push
27:41
Speaker 1: this forward. One of course goes into the decks Riple
27:45
Speaker 1: launch as of permission decks. This is interesting because it
27:48
Speaker 1: enables KYC and when you think about swaps like that
27:54
Speaker 1: and KYC with XRP, there could get to be some
27:58
Speaker 1: intriguing strategies here. And of course obviously this would drive
28:02
Speaker 1: I think the XRP price up a little bit, So
28:05
Speaker 1: we're going to be watching that one for sure. I
28:07
Speaker 1: want to The last token I want to get to
28:09
Speaker 1: is Avalanche. Avalanche of course has now been placed on
28:14
Speaker 1: the Grayscale research top twenty uh. They're sitting in just
28:18
Speaker 1: above Uni swap right now underneath chain Link. Let me
28:21
Speaker 1: kinda zoom in on that for you guys. You can
28:23
Speaker 1: kind of see the top there as you can see
28:27
Speaker 1: it's Bitcoin Ethereum Solana, hyper Liquid and then of course
28:32
Speaker 1: Sweet chain Link and Avalanche right there. Let's take a
28:35
Speaker 1: look at Avalanche right now, because this has been a
28:37
Speaker 1: struggling token in terms of price action. Is it going
28:41
Speaker 1: to continue or not.
28:46
Speaker 3: Continue bearish or continue bullish. I think be continue bullish more.
28:50
Speaker 3: I think it will continue bullish, but I know what
28:53
Speaker 3: you mean. But yeah, I think it'll turn around a
28:55
Speaker 3: little bit. I mean, I don't think it's in the worst,
28:57
Speaker 3: you know, position in the world right now. When you
28:59
Speaker 3: look at the chart, it's kind of hitting this area.
29:01
Speaker 3: You're making a high or low. You're still above the
29:03
Speaker 3: April low, which is pretty good, and you're getting some
29:06
Speaker 3: bullish tips forming. So I mean, I think quarter four
29:08
Speaker 3: will really be where it shines. But I think into
29:10
Speaker 3: the end of the month you should be able to
29:12
Speaker 3: get a jump back up to that twenty one things
29:15
Speaker 3: get really good. Maybe twenty five to thirty could be
29:17
Speaker 3: possible into the end of July. But yeah, it definitely
29:20
Speaker 3: has been a little bit of a laggard. But you know,
29:22
Speaker 3: ultimately I would hope that you could generally see into
29:26
Speaker 3: the end of the year something like this, maybe even
29:29
Speaker 3: back up to your old all time highs. You know,
29:31
Speaker 3: it's hard to say, but at this point it probably
29:34
Speaker 3: doesn't look like you're gonna make a new all time
29:36
Speaker 3: high by the end of the year, but you still
29:38
Speaker 3: could get a decent jump up. You know, you could
29:40
Speaker 3: still get a five hundred percent or something like that.
29:42
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think there's still phosential.
29:44
Speaker 1: So yeah, I like how you casually say you could
29:46
Speaker 1: still get a five hundred percent gain on this one.
29:50
Speaker 1: But you look at this, this range that we're we've
29:52
Speaker 1: been in right around that seventeen dollar mark, which is
29:55
Speaker 1: where we're trading right now. This goes back three times,
29:58
Speaker 1: all the way back into March of this year. That
30:01
Speaker 1: was the last time we saw that low. And then
30:03
Speaker 1: you look prior to that. I mean you're going back
30:05
Speaker 1: into November of twenty twenty three in these kind of numbers,
30:09
Speaker 1: So you could be right. I mean if you look
30:11
Speaker 1: at all time high, but even from that price range
30:14
Speaker 1: to where it came in, I mean, gosh, that's still
30:16
Speaker 1: some pretty significant numbers. Is your what is your high
30:20
Speaker 1: target for avalanche in the next you know, by year end.
30:26
Speaker 3: By a year end, would probably be the old all
30:27
Speaker 3: time highs. I mean, I want to say you can
30:30
Speaker 3: make a new all time high, but it would probably
30:32
Speaker 3: be around one hundred would be the high end. I mean,
30:34
Speaker 3: I guess it could. I mean, it's not impossible to
30:37
Speaker 3: go with ten x from a year, but it looks
30:39
Speaker 3: a little less likely to get a full ten X.
30:40
Speaker 3: I would say that the high range would be one hundred,
30:43
Speaker 3: the lower range of probably fifty. That would be kind Yeah.
30:46
Speaker 1: So Evan, how would you let's let's go the route
30:49
Speaker 1: of deploying capital right now, okay, in the market as
30:53
Speaker 1: it is right now, we got ten thousand dollars? Okay,
30:56
Speaker 1: where would you place that today? Would you play mostly
31:00
Speaker 1: on ETH? Would you try to go in at Avalanche
31:03
Speaker 1: at this low rate? Would you look at Solana? Would
31:06
Speaker 1: you look at XRP? How would you divvy that ten K?
31:10
Speaker 3: I would probably do eighty percent ETH and then twenty
31:12
Speaker 3: percent divided between all those three you mentioned, Yeah, Ripple,
31:16
Speaker 3: you know Avac, Solana, Yes, a lot of those. I
31:21
Speaker 3: would wait a few months, and I would hopefully right
31:23
Speaker 3: around when the FED starts to cut before that September meeting,
31:27
Speaker 3: or do it in the beginning of September. Then I
31:29
Speaker 3: would get very aggressive with alts and I would try
31:31
Speaker 3: to hold them into the end of the year and
31:33
Speaker 3: try to sell then.
31:34
Speaker 1: So would you are you in the strategy of selling
31:37
Speaker 1: summer of your eth?
31:38
Speaker 2: If we do actually.
31:40
Speaker 1: See an ETH all time high achieved again, would you
31:43
Speaker 1: take some ETH off the table at that time.
31:46
Speaker 3: Absolutely, it depends when you hit that. So if you
31:48
Speaker 3: hit that in September, would I would be hoping for
31:50
Speaker 3: seven K and I would be holding or you know,
31:53
Speaker 3: get ing greedy and maybe converting its some to all
31:54
Speaker 3: coins and hoping we have an all coins season. If
31:57
Speaker 3: you hit the new all time high around November December high,
32:00
Speaker 3: still am a proponent of the first cycle, I would
32:02
Speaker 3: start to get out. I would be getting out at
32:03
Speaker 3: that point. If it's in.
32:04
Speaker 1: December, all right, Well, that's the only place that ev
32:07
Speaker 1: and Ila often disagree is on the four year cycle.
32:09
Speaker 1: I think it's over. I think we are in a
32:10
Speaker 1: different game now, you know, and I understand your point,
32:14
Speaker 1: but but I'm still pushing, pushing away from that.
32:17
Speaker 3: You know. Let me ask you coins one hundred and
32:19
Speaker 3: fifty K five K, I mean there's going to be
32:21
Speaker 3: some type of correction.
32:23
Speaker 2: Well, that's true for sure, no doubt. One point fifty
32:26
Speaker 2: and five would do it for sure.
32:27
Speaker 1: Evan, We're going to have you back on. I know
32:29
Speaker 1: you're getting ready to travel again, but we'll have you
32:32
Speaker 1: back on the next couple of weeks.
32:33
Speaker 2: We'll do some more breakdowns of this. Appreciate you coming
32:35
Speaker 2: in today.
32:36
Speaker 3: Yep, I always on. Thanks so much.
32:38
Speaker 2: You bet all.
32:39
Speaker 1: Right, you guys, if you're not in the diamond circle,
32:41
Speaker 1: get in right now. And did you know we have
32:43
Speaker 1: a Telegram group. It's actually an invite that you can
32:46
Speaker 1: click on down below. Occasionally drop those in there so
32:48
Speaker 1: you can get in right now. I'm in there every
32:50
Speaker 1: day chatting with you guys, always dropping some stuff in there.
32:54
Speaker 1: I love to get your feedback, and of course follow
32:56
Speaker 1: me on X at Paul Baron. We'll catch next time
32:58
Speaker 1: right here on tech Bath, A
33:02
Speaker 6: Different permuted, different mot