Why Grades and Pedigree Don’t Tell the Whole Story

R3ciprocity.com - Prof David Maslach: Innovation; Research Life; Striving Towards Happiness · Apr 21, 2026 · 10m

We like to believe there are clear signals of future success: good grades, the right school, a glowing letter of recommendation. We use these signals to make judgments—about students, colleagues, even ourselves.

But here’s the problem: these signals are noisy. Grades often just reflect coaching or context. Prestigious schools lock in reputations—sometimes for life—regardless of what a person actually does afterward. Interviews, letters, pedigrees… they’re all attempts to get behind the story, but they often fail.

What I’ve learned is that we, as humans, are intuitive statisticians. We see…