Latest / The Specific Jawns / What Arms Do You Trust In October?
Transcript
- Pat Barker: What's going on, everybody? Welcome back to the Specific Johns Podcast, your premier podcast for all things Phillies. I'm your host, Pat Barker, joined as always by my good friend Carl Bakuti. hit record about 20 seconds after the Phillies game ended. They drop a bit of a heartbreaker, six to five to the Houston Astros. Really looked like they were about to hand Josh Hader his first blown save. In over a year, they started off the ninth inning down six to four. Bryson Stott with a single. And Mundo Sosa with a ball high off the right center field wall that bounded away from the fielders. Seemed like enough time to get to third base. I don't want to be that guy. I'd have to see the replay. All I know is he only got to second and he ended up I was gonna say got stranded there. He did take a th take third on defensive indifference, but by that point it was too late. Kyle Schwarber in an absolutely comical moment. really I'm thinking he's gonna hit a home run to win the game, and then his stat pops up at the bottom. Career versus hater, for fifteen with eleven strikeouts. And was not to beat tonight. Schwarber pops out, Phillips lose six to five. Carl, before we even get into any Philly stuff, I'll give you one chance to tell me how you're doing, how was your week, and then we'll we'll get to the disappointing stuff. Carl: Pat, you you know full well I've had a great week. I got got to catch a ball game with you. You graced us with your presence from LA. got to see a game on Friday night against the Bravos and it was marquee matchup, Sanchez versus Sale. And I am starting to believe that maybe you're their problem, Pat. in the past really this whole playoff run these past couple years, we lose when you're here. So, you know. Let's fix that. if not, stay out. but it was great to see you nonetheless. Had a great time. Pat Barker: It was it was great to see you. The postgame hang at the bar. I got to educate you on the Burbank butt sniffer. If you guys are unfamiliar, Google it. good use of your time. great hang, great time, really enjoyed it. But yes, I take full responsibility in being the bad luck charm. I'd have to dig up the numbers, but I think this is no joke, I moved in twenty thirteen. I think I've been back in the thirteen years since for a total of sixteen games. And the Phillies are, I believe, two and fourteen in those Carl: My God. Pat Barker: games. I don't know. Because I know logically that can't be a real thing, but I really feel like I have to stay away, and it's kind of a terrible feeling, I'm not gonna lie to you. Carl: I mean, I knew it was a problem when you know, I went to all the playoff wins in twenty twenty two and the one game that I could not attend, you show up and we get no hit. So Pat Barker: Yeah. I mean to be fair, we went to the next game together and w the Phillies lost that one too. So Right. Carl: Well, I went and you were there. But w I'm not gonna be brought down with that kind of Pat Barker: Listen, I'm sorry. I'm sorry, okay? I have no more plans to travel back to Philly before the end of the baseball season. if they play in the playoffs here in LA or San Diego or Arizona, I will be there. and that has also not gone well. So I don't know. Maybe these guys should learn how to win a baseball game with me there. Maybe it's not my problem. They're they're making a lot of money, they need to figure it out. Let's get into the week that we we just had because boy, in a in a funny twist, we had an episode last week and kind of a clickbaity title. I said, Are the Phillies the best team in baseball? And I realized yesterday that it never uploaded to Spotify and Apple. I apologize for that. Just to YouTube. So I I uploaded it yesterday, and what an insane title to put on a podcast that dropped yesterday. Because boy, this team does not look like the best team in baseball at all. I really thought that we were heading in that direction. Big four game set against the Braves. And I don't think they played all that poorly against the Braves, all things considered. Let's do a real quick. I'm gonna do a Carl Bakudi here, just kind of go game by game over the last week. last we spoke, they had taken the first two in Arizona. They dropped the third game one to nothing against an Arizona Bullpen game. They got nothing going against the Arizona Bullpen. Then they came home for that four-game set. As you mentioned, we went on Friday, Sanchez versus Sale. Sanchez had a little bit of trouble in the second inning. Otherwise, it was really good. But that's all it takes against a guy like Sale. I thought they had a lot of bad luck on batted balls. They hit a lot of hard balls that found gloves. But they lost. They came back the next day. They won behind Zach Wheeler, despite Ronald Acunia hitting one to the moon and taking his time around the bases, becoming public enemy number one. A trend that continued in game three of the series when he hit a massive game tying Homer in the eighth inning off of Alex McFarlane. and then gave himself a curtain call, actually, which we'll we'll get into. before Johan Duran gave up the game winning run in the ninth inning. Braves took that one. And then of course Jesus Lazardo, an absolutely heroic effort on Monday on Labor Day, when it seemed that the Phillies weren't gonna give him any help at all. It wasn't until two outs in the eighth where Kyle Schwarber hit a ball off the facing of the upper deck. Luzardo took care of the rest. Complete game shutout. The first one of his career. Phil split the series. And then they come out tonight and Andrew Payner reverts back to the Andrew Painter of old. They lose six to five to the Astros. As we speak, the the Braves are down six to one to the Rays in the eighth. So it looks like they might not lose ground in that. The Brewers and Cubs are currently tied. Overall, yeah, we're looking at a two and four record since we last spoke. I don't have a specific question to get started. Start where you want. Do you feel any different about this team than you did a week ago? Carl: Really don't have the the calculus is still the same. Now we we went on a little bit of a heater in August, a huge heater in August, let's be honest, that that got us right. but that we are still exactly the formula that we have known for quite some time. I won't say from the beginning of the season, because at the beginning of the season we thought that the bullpen was the one thing we would not have to worry about in twenty twenty-six. But, you know, we still have an offense that will beat up bad pitching and struggle against good pitching. I think there have been some great strides from the beginning of the season with the addition of a rise and the bench pieces that we've we've tacked on. I have a lot more faith in late innings that you know the a a just a absolute dead game for eight innings. We still have a chance if it's close in the ninth with a few pieces we can throw in there. not look as predictable all the time. our starting pitching is incredible. It can't be understated how good they've been. And even with Andrew Painter giving up four or five tonight, he's made tremendous strides. He's given us a lot of confidence. He's he's and his runs have been in clusters, even in his bad starts since he returned from the minors. It's it's as if he just needs to learn how to bear down, not have that, you know, for Aaron Nolan for Aaron Nolan for years I've called it his pumpkin inning when he can look great and just turn into one. so I I s I still feel like Painter is a plus. But the bullpen is is not gonna, you know, give you anything to feel confident in if if we're falling behind or with a close lead. I mean, we both talked about Orion Kirkering coming in on Friday. I made the mistake of saying You know what, with a lead, I don't mind Kirking. I'm sorry, w if we're behind by one, I don't mind Kirkering coming in. It feels like he's he he doesn't get as rattled if we were up three two at the time. I would have been like, shit, that's not the guy I want in that spot. And he still gave up a two-run bomb. but yeah, it it's just they are who we thought they were. And Pat Barker: Yep. Carl: and they're going to Stay that way through October. We just hope that they're hot in the right ways at the right time. And you have to go back into the last couple playoff runs and really just dig into the details of it and realize that it could easily have gone the other way in any of those series. They weren't blowouts. They they yes, they felt predictable and were extremely frustrating. but they were right there. i each year. And there's no reason why you can't at the very least hope for a mean regression one of these Octobers where where we come out on top. so that's where I'm looking. I I can't say I'm surprised. I'm not I I'm I'm not like losing my mind over any recent trends. I'm feeling pretty positive still like they're they're in a good spot. but for us to think we were gonna win out and win the division, you know, we knew that was going to be a a A silly thing to expect. Pat Barker: Yeah, I mean I I feel almost awkward here because I prepared so many things to say and it's kind of in the exact same vein of what you just said. It is such a deeply unsatisfying take, but it is correct to say that this team A is the most they are who we thought they were team of all time. They took the scenic route this season with the ups and downs, and they ended up in the exact same place. They changed managers, they changed positions, they changed bullpen pieces, they they did everything, and they are the exact same team they've been, more or less, for the last five years. were headed for the exact same thing, and I'm not even saying it like it's necessarily a bad thing, because I do think that this team could win a World Series. I really do. But the unsatisfying part is the acknowledgement that it's all about getting hits at the right time. This team is not going to be an offensive juggernaut in October, and they don't need to. They can get six or seven hits a game as long as those six or seven hits are at the correct time. And if they're not at the correct time, it is going to be massively frustrating to watch. But that is really the only way out of this thing. The playoffs are a crapshoot. Let me ask you this. In 2022, which we have such fond memories of when the offense, everybody was putting up these incredible moments that will live forever, and Harper with the Homer and Hoskins with the bat spike and Brandon Marsh coming up with big hits. Let me ask you this. How many players on their roster for the 2022 postseason do you think hit over 225? Carl: How many? I'm gonna guess two. I'm not even sure which ones I'll guess. Pat Barker: How about one? How about Bryce Harper? Bryce Carl: Wow. Wow. Pat Barker: Harper hit 349. The next best average was Alec Bohm at 224. Reese Hoskins, who I heard people last year and the year before say, boy, we really need Reese back in there. That would change everything. He hit 159. Yeah, he spiked his bat once, but he hit 159. Gene Segura, who I have a memory of as this clutch. In fact, when I was thinking in my head about the difference between 2022 and 2023, I was like, it was the same offense, but they went from Gene Segura to Trey Turner, which is actually a downgrade because of situational hitting in the playoffs. No. Gene Segura in those playoffs hit 214 with an OPS of 500. Trey Turner replaced him and posted an OPS the next year over a thousand. The daycare hit a combined 184. And I remember them getting big hit, but those were the only hits. And I'm not saying this is a criticism at all. What I'm saying is the hits were at the right time. And that's all that matters. That 2022 team posted a combined OPS in the playoffs of 689. The following year, the OPS jumped collectively almost 130 points. And their ERA went down a full run. In twenty twenty-three they had an eight twenty-one OPS and a two twenty ERA, and they lost to the Diamondbacks. Sometimes it doesn't matter, and whatever's gonna happen is gonna happen, and that is not fun to say on a podcast because i it it it's the truth, but it's very unsatisfying to hear. but they just need hits at the right time, and I just gotta we just gotta pray that they get Carl: Yeah. and you know, I do think back to twenty twenty two we didn't know then what we know now about that team. I mean, they they came out of nowhere just to make the playoffs that year. Everything felt like house money. So the attitude in the f in the fan base and in the in the locker room was was very much that. That that what do we have to lose? we're we're out here, we don't belong here. we're punching above our weight, and they got Clutch moments in every game until the very end. and y when you give those OPS numbers, yeah, well they got no hit in a World Series game. I shouldn't be that surprised. you know, Pat Barker: Yeah. Right. Carl: they they Reese Hoskins was O for a bunch before that bike spat bat spike moment. you know, Gene Segura, I remember him being pivotal in winning the first wildcard game against the Cardinals. Pat Barker: Mm. Carl: classic bat control moment. He he was that guy on that team. But no, I don't remember anything he did after that. everything after that was a lot of, you know, yeah, Bryce Harper was was definitely producing at the plate. And I remember a lot of hits down the line by Alec Boehm and Nick Castellanos at at key moments. But they weren't not the norm. Pat Barker: And i it just goes to show that like i all that matters at the end of the day is the win. If you get the win, everything looks better in the box score. But that team went out in that wildcard game against St. Louis and put up one run in the first eight innings. I believe it might have been no runs. They got to the ninth inning and it was like it was one nothing or one one, and then Alec Bone gets hit with the bases loaded. Not gets a hit, he gets hit, which still might be his best played appearance as a Philly, is almost getting drilled in the head. And then Gene Segura hits a a weak grounder with an exit VLO of about fifty-eight miles an hour and it goes under the second baseman's glove. Like it it is what it is. and I say that because I get frustrated when people are like, yeah, this team they can't hit in the playoffs, they can't prefer when they really hit in 2023 until they didn't. So you just don't know what's going to happen. and it just goes to show that just because you have great pitching does not guarantee anything. But let's talk about the pitching real quick. Because the the hitting I think if I was the manager, at this point I just throw my hand up and I go, I'll just I'll say a prayer and we'll hope that everything works out and hope that these guys get hits at the right time. The Carl: I will say the one thing that I still think they could do, and it is take Kyle Schwarber out of the leadoff spot. I again we've talked to we're blue in the face about that, but I still think there is a tweak that can be made that can optimize the production of this offense. But I'll leave it at that. I can't I how many times can I can I give that logic, especially on this podcast? I'm not going to bore you with it. But I refuse to say, throw our hands up, nothing else you can do. There there's something. There is. Pat Barker: Sure. f listen, for sure. And I am operating under the idea that the top four spots in the lineup are untouchable. They're not they're not going to touch that's not to say I don't think they should. but th they're just not going to. What they can do is try to figure out how they're gonna piece together twenty seven outs from the bullpen. Because if this team is only gonna average two or three runs a game in order to win They are gonna have to piece together 27 outs, and there really are four arms that I trust in that entire pitching staff. Sanchez, Luzardo, Wheeler, thank God he's back. He looks great again. And Duran. And you could say Nola, but the problem is I Nola's not gonna get a start in a wild card series, and I don't know what you would expect out of him out of the bullpen. So To me, he's not and you could say somebody like Tim Mays that he's not gonna get, I hope, high leverage, you know, pitching opportunities in the playoffs. It's those four guys you gotta pair together to get out of it. Now that things are starting to get clear, it seems apparent we're gonna get the Cubs either at home or on the road. How would you approach the Cubs if you are Don Mattingley? What is your rotation? What's the strategy? How do you get through, frankly, one of the better offensive teams in October? Carl: So now this is where it gets really exciting for me as just a baseball fan, a Phillies fan, and a podcaster, because there there are some really creative and fun and effective things, I would argue, that they could do that are not conventional, that that would buck a lot of trends from this entire season, other Tom under Thompson or Mattingley. If we are starting on the road, and the odds are that we will, we'll be on the road against the Cubs three games at Wrigley Field. the Cubs smoked us in the season series. We don't have the tiebreaker. you cannot ignore a few facts about this rotation and the guys on it. Jesus Lazardo has a historically good road record. And he's on a historic run. He he I I've seen a few pundits today from Balster Alney to to Jason Stark refer to Jesus Lazardo as the best pitcher in baseball since June. Nothing to sneeze at. I do not want to be locked into anything regarding this rotation and pattern behavior. I don't want to hear that from Don Mattingley. He was brought in just to shake things up for the sake of shaking things up. There was nothing about Mattingley's pedigree as a manager that made any of us think, well, that's the guy. I did want Thompson to be fired, and I did want Mattingley to be the guy brought in. But it was literally just to do something different, to stir the drink a little bit, get things moving from the the stagnation that we felt, especially after the past off season, but over the past three years. You have an option, and I think you you should take it to start Jesus Lazardo in game one of a road playoff series. And I want to go into this postseason with the mentality because I have the same level of faith that you do in the four guys you mentioned. And the same lack of faith that I assume you do in everybody else. I want the bullpen day for all these starters to be in play as an active inning or two in a in a playoff game. Every third day, these guys throw a bullpen session. Now, I gotta dig a little deeper into whether there's much variation in the pitch counts that that each of these guys is allowed. I would assume veteran guys throw a little bit less. But a guy like Wheeler might be so locked into his patterns, maybe he does throw. 60 pitches in his bullpen session. I don't know. But we need to go into this thinking we're going to use our starters on at the halfway point between starts. I trust the three guys that you mentioned. I would even trust Nola to be a part of that scenario, whether it's as an opener of sorts or or out of the pen. And Jesus Lazardo makes the most sense in that configuration as your game one starter. Because if the wild card series goes to to three games, you have an option to use him in that third game. If it doesn't go three games, you have the option to use him in the first game of the next series. You you have an option to reset your your rotation every series, really. If you're looking at these guys not necessarily as the locked in starter for five, six innings guaranteed. You could even play with it where you're if if the matchups are right, lefty, righty, or whatever else, the guy ready on his bullpen day could start the game as your opener and and bring in somebody else. All of this is on the table. And it it sounds crazy right now when we're we've got just three run-of-the-mill starters who can really lock in and eat innings and perform in these playoffs, not just because, you know, it's the way that the Dodgers did it last year, but because of how Sick and tired, we are of the same old as a franchise, as a fan base. It you have to take the context into play. If this were 2022 and we hadn't been in the playoffs for 11 years, I wouldn't even be bringing this up, I don't think. But you've got a rapidly closing window. You've done much of the same over the past few years. And this is the approach that will actually yield some results and make things move differently, and I think give us the best chance to win. So I'm gonna I'll start with that. Pat Barker: Yeah. Once again, I'm completely in agreement on the Jesus Lazardo point. I had talked last week, and this was an idea that was originally yours as well, but using him as kind of the super reliever out of the bullpen, I still think there's a world you could do that. I think he could start game one, I think he could pitch game three. And by the way, if the offense just gives him four runs a game, all of this becomes moot. You don't have to move anyone around. You don't have to bring in guys on their throw day or whatever. If the offense could just give them four innings, I think these guys could go out and give seven innings and you could piece together six outs. But that's probably not going to happen. So you gotta figure out a way, and the the Cubs are a tough offense. You gotta figure out a way to keep them at bay. The first thing that I wanna figure out is how do we I don't want to say neutralize Pete Crow Armstrong because I don't think it can be done. The season he's having is unbelievable. But how do you best combat him? Now, PCA is a guy that coming into this year struggled mightily against left handers to the point where if you go back and look at all of the Phillies Cubs games from earlier in the season, you don't even have any data on him versus Sanchez or him versus Luzardo because he didn't start those games. Carl: Mm. Yeah. Pat Barker: He was a platoon player at the beginning of this season. And then he did the Brandon Marsh thing at a much higher level where he just started raking against lefties and he became an everyday player. I looked at his numbers versus righties, lefties almost identical. OPS in the mid-900s both ways. He is he's unbelievable. Higher on base against lefties, higher slug against righties, but they're pretty close. I had to really dig into the numbers, and the one thing I found that gives me a little bit of hope is. He has been really good against pretty much every pitch, but the only one that he has looked pretty human on is the sweeper. Of all the pitches Carl: There it is. Pat Barker: he faces, the only one that he really struggles at all against is the sweeper. And who has the best sweeper not only on this team, but one of the best in the entire sport? Carl: In in the world right now. It's Jesus Lazardo, without a doubt. Mm-hmm. Pat Barker: It's Jesus Lazardo. So I think you have to maximize Lazardo. I think you gotta go with him game one, and you gotta plan on him being part of the equation in game three. to that end, you ask yourself, well, who do they go with game two? Do you go with Sanchez or do you go with Wheeler? The Cubs actually have fared better against lefties than they have against righties this year. They're one of the rare teams that hits left lefties better than righties. They have a lot of strong side splits against lefties from guys like Seiya Suzuki and Alex Bregman. I really think at this point, I would probably go Wheeler game two. And the other reason behind that is Sanchez is another guy who came up as a relief pitcher. He did it as recently as a couple years ago. He could be your secret weapon out of the bullpen game one and start game three. I I don't know that Wheeler could be the option out of the bullpen, so I think I go with him in game two. And of course the danger in that is if you lose the first two games, you will never stop getting crushed for losing a series without using arguably the best pitcher in baseball for the last two or three years in Christopher Sanchez. But that's a risk I'm willing to take at this point. I think you're right. You got to think outside the box. And that's to me, that's the most effective way to try to do it. Carl: If that is the take that we have after being knocked out of the playoffs in the wild card round, I give me that all day. If that's the only risk here, it anything different. You you have three aces. I mean throw a dart at any of them, and I'm happy with them as my starter. The only things, the only marginal stats that I look at are these home away splits where I know that Luzardo is lights out on the road. And Sanchez does much better at home. Now, you can't really play it. You can't assume that we're going to have a home series. It certainly not if we have the first series on the road. We're definitely not going to have the second series on on at home. so he's gonna have to pitch on the road eventually. But yeah, if it if it's one A and one B, Luzardo is one A on the road. And Wheeler's a guy who he's he's the veteran of the group. He will take the ball anytime, anywhere. I would consider him As a bullpen piece, if we had to, if we're going with this configuration. came in in 2023, no problem. Pat Barker: Yeah, fair. Carl: you know, these these are this the this is the best possible problem to have. And if if the pro if if the issue we have after the fact is that we didn't get to use one of our three aces, what what are you gonna say? Clearly something else failed, and it's not the Pat Barker: Yeah. Carl: managerial decision. On who who's on the Pat Barker: And and and look, you can you can always reserve the right to just go one game at a time. If you try the Lozardo thing in game one and you lose and you don't end up using Sanchez, you could move Sanchez up to game two if you want. I do like Sanchez as a hard sinker ball pitcher in in a park that you know, if the wind is blowing out, that will really come in handy. Trying to keep guys in the ballpark. And also we have a couple weeks left to see if Zach Wheeler is all the way back. So this could all change. But where I'm sitting today, game one, Lazardo gets the ball, Sanchez goes down to the bullpen, and it's just kind of all hands on deck for the duration of October. You do whatever you can to win that game and then worry about tomorrow, tomorrow. Carl: Yeah, and and in so many ways, and this is a horrible way to to approach you know the end of your season, I I care more about those last ten days of September b regular season. The my goal there is to configure the rotation the way I want it, more than it is to chase the division or the or or the Cubs in the wild card series. That that's a crazy thought. Because especially if it's against the Cubs, it's whether you're playing three at home or three away. but it is that important. We're we're here to win the World Series. We need to be in position to make a long, sustained run. And I I want to know exactly who my starters are in that moment, including Aaron Nola. I want to know who I can trust at any moment. Pat Barker: Okay. Carl: and yeah, Wheeler, unfortunately, we do have just a little touch of a question mark. another start or two I think will we'll know whether he's truly back or not. I think he will be. but yeah, you you gotta you gotta know who your horses are and then whip by the time you get into the playoffs. And, you know, don't pull any punches. Pat Barker: Yeah, I mostly agree. I think if they sweep the Braves and get, you know, within what if the division is winnable those last ten games, I think you have to go for that. I really do. But the the home field against the Cubs, I do think it's important, but I think using those last ten days to get everything set up for optimal performance in the playoffs, which to me, by the way, means bringing Andrew Painter out of the bullpen a couple times. And Carl: Mm-hmm. Yep. Pat Barker: seeing how he handles it. I would rather just bring up a spot starter. It call Alan Ron Hell. Way he's not doing anything recently. Get him up here. Let him spot start and painter come in in those games in the fifth inning and see how he responds to it. to see if he can be a weapon at all. Because he's not gonna be in the rotation at this point. I mean, that's pretty clear. Carl: Yeah, and y and unfortunately I I'm gonna bring up a a name that doesn't deserve to be mentioned ever again, Taiwan Walker. you know, he was on those postseason rosters and we never used him and we knew we weren't gonna use him. And I don't want to be in that spot with Painter. If he's not gonna start a game and we don't trust him out of the pen, give somebody else that roster spot. There's always a chance that you're gonna need an extra pinch runner. you know. Be smart about that. Don't just have him on the rotation as the other starter that never gets used. there just there can't be any conventional rules followed here in this postseason. And MLB set it up this way a few years ago when they expanded the field. you know, it it it is at utter chaos in that first week. It is so stressful to play 162 games and be, you know, one of the top teams in the league and then have a chance to see it all disappear in three days. That that that's Pat Barker: Well Carl: the problem. Pat Barker: well let's let's let's go to the plus side then. A couple things. the of the last four years, the two where they were in that nerve wracking position, they won both of those series and then went on and won in the the division series as well. So it has created momentum for them. The two years that they won the division, they had that first round off and they came in and, you know, looked pretty flat. Both years against the Mets and the Dodgers. So maybe this is just a cope. Maybe this is me convincing myself that they're better off playing in that series. But I think there could actually be something to that. The second reason for positivity is the Cubs are one of the few teams in the National League playoffs where the bats could actually get going. There's no Mizarowski, there's no Chris Sale, there's no Tarek Skubel, there's no Yoshinobu Yamamoto, there's none of those guys. I don't know if people are really familiar with the Cubs rotation, but let me tell you this. They have one guy on their roster, one starting pitcher who for the entire season has a war above one point five. That's Ben Brown at two point two, and he hasn't picked up a baseball since June. His season is over. He was at 2.2 war in the middle of June. Not one other player on their team is over 1.5. I don't know who starts those games. Shota Imanaga has given up more home runs than any other pitcher in baseball. Carl: Love that. Pat Barker: He might be their game one starter. Matthew Boyd might get a start in that series. He is nothing to write home about. They're two big trade deadline acquisitions who have both been pretty good for them, but overall, I think there's there's reason for concern. Kevin Gossman and Clay Holmes. I'm not scared of any of those guys. They do not have a guy in their bullpen with double digit saves this year. They don't have a lights out bullpen. They don't have lights out starting pitching. I really think that this is the ideal matchup for the Phillies. Because if you're asking me who has a better shot at breaking out, the Phillies inconsistent bats against really mediocre pitching, or the Cubs good bats against Wheeler, Sanchez and Lazardo, I I really like the Phillies here. I love the the the matchup for this offense, and I I think it could get them going heading into this the next round. Carl: Yeah, I think these are great points. I I did not think I'd hear Ben Brown's name, former Phillies draft pick. yeah, a and you know, I'm not gonna be scared because of the season series record. when we lost to the we got swept by the Cubs, I think, in April or May, that was in the thick of, you know, the the end of Thompson's tenure. the Cubs were on an absolute heater to start the year, if I recall correctly. yeah, just not the same Certainly not the same Phillies team at the time. And yeah, we certainly in comparison to the rest of the landscape in the NL, the Cubs are the matchup. You you you've got guys who give up home runs. You've got guys you just don't have the, as you said, the the big name Sale, Mizerowski, Yamamoto. That they they don't have that. So either way, we're probably gonna end up playing a three-game set against the Cubs. It's a matter of whether it's home or away. I would still bet on the Phillies in that series, i no matter w whether we're at home or at at Wrigley. I don't know if you want to talk about the rest of the field, if we want to go that far, you're the captain here. Pat Barker: Well there's there's before before we get into that, because I do I I do want to get into it a little bit, but I I d and then we'll we'll close it out. a couple things that I have a little bit of a a concern with. you know, it's obviously been a tough week for the Philz, and we talked about the importance of getting the hit at the right time. And I don't even have a question attached to this. I just think it's worth noting that over the last six games, when they went two and four They were five for forty with runners in scoring position. August was really marked by great approaches, great at bats. I don't mind the effort against Sale. Like I said, they hit a lot of balls hard, and that's Chris Sale. I was disappointed with their performance against the rest of the Braves rotation. and certainly, you know, today and that Arizona Bullpen game, five for forty is not gonna get the job done. I do you have anything you could say to kind of talk me off of this ledge a little bit? Because I I really feel like all the work they did in August to put together a better approach went right out the window this week. Carl: They were playing worse teams in August, Pat. I I it's not gonna make you feel any better, but they were. Pat Barker: No. Carl: runners in scoring Pat Barker: Yeah. Carl: position has been the the the stat to point to with this team over the past few years about the offensive not just ineptitude, but the the lack of approach. And what I saw in certainly against the starters that were less than sale for the Braves, Yeah, we got away. We got away from something in the approach that was different leading up to that. Against Sale, we mentioned it, you know, we were at that game. There were a lot of hard hit balls. There really were. And, you know, you're gonna against a good pitcher, if you don't get lucky on a few of those, you're not likely to win the game. but yeah, the the rest of the games I I did not like how we looked on on Sunday against Hell his name was Perez, or was that Saturday? Pat Barker: Perez with Saturday. Carl: yeah, that none of these these guys, Perez, Holmes, and and Molly, Pat Barker: Molly. Yeah. Carl: those those are not good pitchers, but it felt like we were it we it was a carryover from you know facing sail, and they were just playing hero ball again. It you you could you could feel like each batter was on an island, and that's the Pat Barker: Yeah. Carl: Biggest critique I've had about this team for years. I saw Harper back to some terrible at-bats. Pat Barker: I know, and he was so good in August, like, and that's the other thing about Arise, and I'll I'll I'll I'll use this as a glass half full thing, and I'll we'll make it a positive. A Rise transformed the entire offense in August, but he didn't really hit. He wasn't playing like himself, and he still hasn't. But I think he will. I think we have not gotten the best out of Luisa Rise yet. Maybe we got it almost spiritually in the way he changed the approach of the team, but we have not gotten his best yet. And I think that is still to come, and I'm excited about that. So fingers crossed, we'll have that. The last question I want to ask you about this team before we we move on and just look at the rest of the field before we get out of here. I know we don't like the bullpen, but I'm gonna do whatever the baseball version of Marrifuck Kill is right now. And I'm gonna give you these three right-handers. Jonathan Bolin has allow allowed a home run in three of his last four games. Ryan Kirkering has allowed runs in five of his last six games. And Alex McFarlane has about twelve innings under his belt in his career. And they've mostly been really good, except for when he threw seven straight fastballs to Ronald Acuna and the last one got hit into the stand. who are you trusting in order of most to least out of that list when October comes around? Carl: When October comes around it it's McFarlane. It's still McFarlane. Pat Barker: Yeah. Carl: l give a quick shout out to our buddy Mike Sambuco, who couldn't make it tonight. he actually had a good point on our text thread leading up to this that you know, Cotham advised McFarlane that that Acuny was if he had any weakness it was the the high heat. you know, a rookie pitcher who's never faced a world class hitter like that. is gonna fall into a pattern and make a mistake and and blindly follow advice like that. I don't view that blow up game for him as I I actually view that as a thing he will grow off of. I always make sure to listen, especially to to rookies, you know, after they're brought down to earth. listen to Painter a lot in in his press conferences this entire season. The way I heard him respond was was very encouraging. He sounded like a guy who who knew he was gonna make mistakes. He's not gonna he's not gonna wallow in it, he's gonna learn from it and and wear it and he's gonna get better. I I truly believe that about that guy. I think he's got that kind of maturity. so yeah, McFarland of those three is the guy I'm gonna trust, even in high leverage, if we continue to use him. through this month and continue to trust him and give him a chance to grow. that would be the biggest worry I'd have is that Mattingley will be a little gun shy with him for whatever reason. It's not like he has better options anywhere else. the other two, Bolin is he does concern me. The pattern I've seen in him is that he leaves leaves it up in the zone early in his inning. when he gets hit with that home run, it's usually right away. He he is a veteran. He does settle in. He he he mitigates the damage. but that's that's a concern. Some guys are just like that. Some guys just have to you get used to throwing for real on the mound even after their warm ups and get that little mechanical tweak to get the ball down. and that that has been just a a pattern that's been noticeable in his game, especially of late. but he is still, you know, a rock solid bullpen piece in as much as we could possibly say we have one leading up to Durant. Ryan Kirkering can go to the moon. I don't need Pat Barker: Ha ha. Carl: him on this team anymore. I I I I really, really was a believer in him in twenty twenty three. I remember there was a specific moment where Topper brought him in in one of the Arizona games, when we started to fall apart. And I thought it was the wrong spot for him. And I was like, I Did you ruin this kid? it it just felt like he was being set up, you know, for for failure. and he did hung hang around for a few years and then obviously had the terrible end to the season last year against the Dodgers. I have not seen him recover from that mentally. no matter how much he says he you know how he was encouraged by the way fans reacted to him in the offseason and that he did all this work and whatever. I you read a guy on the mound. Even before you get to the results and you do not trust the Ryan Kirking to come through in a clutch situation. I referred to him a few episodes ago. This is before Alec Bohm bec became our favorite Philly. We've been a huge fan of Alec Bohm. Pat Barker: Love that guy. Carl: but I referred to him as the Alec Bohm of of the pitching staff mentally. Pat Barker: Yeah. Yeah. Carl: And I'm I'm gonna stand by that. I don't see any reason why that's gonna change. I hate to give up on a guy who is is still young in his career. but you watch enough baseball and you see enough young players either make the turn in maturity or or continue to crumble under pressure and he looks like the latter to me. So in this year, when we have a lot to lose, I don't need him. I d I don't just wanna not use him. I actually don't even think I wanna see him on the roster if somebody else comes up and shows a little spark. Pat Barker: Well, I got bad news for you. He's gonna be on the roster. They're not gonna have somebody Carl: Ha ha ha. Pat Barker: else come up and show spark, but he should not be anywhere near the game. I agree with your rankings, absolutely. And and let the record show on that Acunya Homer. It was the first one of his career on a fastball of a hundred miles an hour or more. So listen, sometimes you face one of the best baseball players in the world and you get beat. overall McFarlane has been great. He's the only one that I really have any degree of faith in at this point. Bolin, his last few outings have really, really concerned me. I do not want him on the mound anywhere close, but overall, we're gonna have to get creative and maybe some six out saves for for Duran and just kind of hope for the best there. just wanted to say real quick, Cubs have scored two runs in the top of the ninth to go up three to one in Milwaukee. So likely they are going to leapfrog the Phillies back into sole possession of that wild card lead. Just guys prepare to For the the team to go to Wrigley. That's that's where I think we're at right now. that being said, let's we got about s five or six minutes left. Let's get into the rest of the field. as of this moment, it looks like as predicted first, maybe not first, but on this podcast last week, it looks like the Brewers will be the one seed. they're only a game up on the Dodgers, but I I feel pretty confident saying Brewers won, Dodgers two, the Braves take the East three, Cubs and Phillies four five in whatever order. And then six is either going to be Arizona or San Diego. I think that's still very much up for grabs. looking beyond Chicago, who are you afraid of? Who do you think would be a good draw for the Phillips? Talk to me. Carl: I'm not afraid of the Braves. I I'll say that. I I know you you're big on, especially of late, saying that we shouldn't be afraid of the Dodgers. That's fine. But I look at that pitching staff. After sale, I are we really gonna be scared of Tyler Molly and and and Martin Perez and whichever homes they have. I don't even bother remembering his first name. yeah, we we Pat Barker: The one with the hair. Carl: Yeah, the one with the hair. they have they have Guys on their offense who we're so familiar with that drive us nuts that that we know can just just put daggers in us. you know, all the way down to Austin Riley, who is batting eighth for that team. but the pitching staff is is nothing to be afraid of. And if we're gonna do what we're supposed to do in the playoffs, which is hit the ball, especially against mediocre pitching, then we beat the Braves in a five or seven game series. That that's how that should go. and we are a bit of a ghost it to them. you know, that that they're gonna try to that that that's gonna come up how how we knocked them out of the the playoffs in twenty two and twenty three pretty decisively. and they've not been the same team since. you know, if we were to talk in the beginning of twenty twenty two, the Braves were on the heels of of a of a a championship that they won without Ronald Acunia, by the way. in terms of how that franchise was built, the contracts that they'd put together, the young guys they they'd brought up and hadn't even yet brought up. I mean, Drake Baldwin is a is a he's gonna be a perennial all-star, I think. they were the dynasty of this decade. They they were well poised to be that. And the Phillies ruined it for them. I mean, yeah, they Pat Barker: Yeah. Yeah. Carl: had some crazy injury spats all across the board, but the Phillies just putting a knife in their heart two years in a row. change the complexion of that franchise this decade. And I feel like that will play a factor in a way that will not be positive for the Braves because the Braves don't have The types of gritty leaders that a contender usually does. And this is where I will get into the topic that we have to touch on, which is Ronald Acuna and him and his his pimp job. Pat Barker: yeah, let's I can't believe we we teased that and we didn't touch on it. Go ahead. Carl: Just you know, I d I just I just brilliantly segued into it. You're welcome. but yeah, he that's a guy who yeah, he he's a he's a world class baseball player, world world class athlete. he actually did win something finally this earlier this year, for Team Venezuela. But yeah, the Braves were at their best when he was down for the year with an ACL. And he's not a guy who carries a team. I I love to remember JT Real Mutos inside the park home run. in game, I think it was three of the NLDS in 2022. That shouldn't have been an inside the park home run. And I remember the Braves broadcast listening to that over and over again. Just chef's kiss. guy was berating Ronald Acuna for giving up on that ball that took a weird Ricky Shea off of Monty's angle. that's who Ronald Acunia is. He's gonna have his big spots. you you you can never take them for granted when you're pitching against him, but in terms of a guy who will lead his team, to exercise some demons, which which would be this Phillies team in a in a playoff series this year. I'm taking the Phillies. Not not scared of Pat Barker: Well first of all, Edmundo Sosa should remember that Acuna doesn't run for a ball and maybe hustle out of the box and don't pimp everything you hit, like he did tonight. no, I remember all that. I ignoring the bigger picture on Acuna for a second, I I did wanna ask you what was your response to the actual action that Acunya did, the the going around the bases, the doing all the the horseshit around the bases and giving himself a curtain call. Where where do you stand on that? I gotta know. Carl: I I love it for the the soap opera that that this whole thing is. You you gotta think of some history in this division. And I I'm not gonna go all truly old school, like you you you drill that guy next to next time you face him. Like that's we're we're past that. this is this is a division in this decade where you've got moments like Reese Hoskins taking the same amount of time to go around the bases against the Mets. I kind of love being able to point to that to say that Ronald Acuna didn't do anything original against us this weekend. Pat Barker: Yeah. Carl: you know, I've always hated that little Eurostep he does before third base, but that's you know, that's the guy he is. I love a heel. I love that. Bryce Harper is that guy in every other city in this division. Pat Barker: Yep. Yep. Carl: And you've got the big moment from a few years ago in the playoffs when he when he he stored stared down What was his name? Arcia. you know, that th these these things are great things for baseball, for this rivalry. I'll take all of it you got because at the end of the day, like I said, I still think we can beat the Braves and we'll beat the Braves in a playoff series, and I will relish these moments in retrospect. So keep pimping us. Please do. Pat Barker: I hate how much we're agreeing on this episode. It does not make for Carl: Ha ha ha ha. Pat Barker: a very interesting podcast, but I I I love it and I'll go a step further. Anyone who's complaining about the Acunya thing, stop it. You're s you're being soft. You gotta you gotta get over it. We can't have Philadelphia be this like tough, gritty city. No one likes us and we don't care. And the moment somebody like you know does that kind of stuff, like Love the dude on the Mets who already got fucking sent back down to the minors because he's not good. Carl: Ha ha Pat Barker: But the one who jumps up in the air like you Carl: Uh-huh. Pat Barker: know, like he's got moon shoes on every time he gets a strike, and sometimes when he throws a ball and then he challenges it in mid-air and he's wrong. I love that. I think it's great. I think baseball needs more guys doing that kind of shit. I don't mind when Harper does it. I don't mind when Hoskins did it, I don't mind when anybody does anything. And you know, if if you're gonna love the Hoskins bat spike and the Harper staring down RC, you can have it both ways. So I'm begging you, if you're a Phillies fan, complaining about Acuna, knock it off. You sound like a baby. Okay, I'm glad we're on the same page on that. And it will be even more satisfying if we do again beat the Braves in the playoffs. So, yes. last thought I have to to answer kind of like what we talked about at the end there. Who am I afraid of? Who am I not? Truly at this point. Logically, the only team I'm afraid of is the Brewers. I think they're the most complete team with the best pitching. They scare the hell out of me. Mizerowski is really not slowing down much at all. They're slowing him down intentionally a little bit, but he is still going out and dealing. It's incredible to see. That's the only team that scares me logically. The Dodgers do not scare me at all logically, but they're the back-to-back champions. So, you know, I it Carl: And and if that rotation is truly healthy, I I Pat Barker: I know, I know. Carl: it does it doesn't even matter if Atani is able to go in October. That that rotation is terrifying. And because we know that they are creative with that rotation, then we'll just string starters together and not even think about the bullpen. yeah, I I'm I have to consider them yeah. I don't look forward to facing the Dodgers if we have to. The way it's lining up though is we won't have to face the Dodgers. I I I think that we will probably end up facing the Braves and the Brewers in the D S and the NLCS. I think those teams are gonna face all I think the Brewers Braves are gonna knock out the Dodgers. And if we beat the Brewers, that's where we end up. Pat Barker: Well, Carl: Yeah. Pat Barker: I mean, let's see. I want the Dodgers mainly because I I want to go back to those games. I'm not I'm not scared. I'm not scared of the ghost of Orion Kirkering. I will go back into Dodgers Stadium. And I I think that this I think that this Phillies team would beat this Dodgers team. And I would like to see that as like a bit of revenge. But ultimately I understand what you're saying about that Dodgers rotation. It's disgusting. And you know, who knows? But I I think Oddly enough, and I would have never believed this if you had told me a month ago, that I'd be sitting here in the first week of September and saying, I'm really not afraid of any of these guys, and I think the Phillies can win a World Series. I don't know if that's just me being a fan and talking myself into it, or if I think my my thoughts are actually based in some kind of logic and reality. But as I sit here today, I think this Phillies team has as good a shot of anybody as as making and winning a world series. Carl: As good a shot as any in this in this run, you mean, or as anyone in this field this year? Pat Barker: As anyone in the field this year. That twenty twenty-three team should have did the twenty twenty-three team in my mind was superior to the one we have now. That was the year to do it. But I don't want to revisit that. I'm talking about against these teams right now, there is nobody that I look at and say definitively, well that team is better than the Phillies. Except for the Brewers, and they always fall apart in October. So I I think this could be the year. By the way, speaking of the Brewers, they came back and tied it against the Cubs in the ninth, three to three. They are now headed to extras. So we'll see what happens there. but that is the episode for this week. until next time, I'm Pat Barker. That is Carl Bakuti. We are the specific Johns and we'll be back next week. until then, go Phils. Carl: Yo fels.