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All About The Benjamin · Politix

• 0:00
  I do think that when somebody like Mehdi Hassan points to
• 0:03
  Tucker Carlson's
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  SPEAKER_00: interview favorably,
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  SPEAKER_00: it's not to say,
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: Tucker Carlson,
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: welcome to the resistance.
• 0:08
  It's to say,
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  I wish mainstream journalists and mainstream Democratic
• 0:13
  politicians would be as...
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: willing to be adversarial towards Israel and Israel allies as he was.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: That's, that's reasonable.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: Like, but I mean, like, I just thought that was kind of unfair.
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  Like,
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  it's not like Mike Huckabee is going on Chris Hayes and
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  receiving softball interviews.
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  It's like,
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  it's like,
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  Hey everyone,
• 0:40
  you're listening to a free preview of the politics podcast.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: This week,
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  we'll offer our closing thoughts on the Democratic Senate
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  primary in Texas,
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  SPEAKER_00: which may be decided by the time this episode drops.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: But we'll mostly discuss Donald Trump's illegal war against Iran.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: What was he thinking?
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: What consequences should we be prepared for?
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: What do we make of the Democratic response so far?
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  And how did so many people who should have known better fool
• 1:06
  themselves into
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: thinking Trump was a more anti-war candidate than Kamala Harris?
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: If you want to listen to the whole conversation,
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: Hello and welcome to the Politics Podcast.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Brian Boyler.
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  SPEAKER_01: I'm Matthew Iglesias.
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  So we're going to spend most of this episode talking about the
• 1:28
  U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.
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  But by the time you listen to this,
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  the Senate primary in Texas will be over.
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  SPEAKER_00: So can we spend five minutes on that, then pivot to the Middle East?
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  SPEAKER_00: Because I think that we discussed the...
• 1:44
  The Jasmine Crockett James Telerico race one time back when she
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  entered the race.
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  And we kind of wrapped that conversation with a shrug like the
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  campaign would
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  clarify who should be the nominee and whether people's
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  misgivings about Crockett
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  SPEAKER_00: were well-founded and all that.
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  So what are your thoughts on how things have gone down since
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  then and who do you
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  SPEAKER_00: think is going to win?
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  Um,
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  I feel that the campaign that Crockett has waged has been
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  really bad.
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  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I don't know, ineffective, but has been like low.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_01: not, not making a strong case for herself to me, right.
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  SPEAKER_01: As an electability candidate,
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  she has like really like tripled down on like base mobilization
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  theory stuff and
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: low blow identity politics attacks on Talarco,
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  SPEAKER_01: um,
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  SPEAKER_01: Colin Allred got like dragged into this in like a really weird way.
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  SPEAKER_01: He inserted himself mostly, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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  I mean,
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  and,
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  and,
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  you know,
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  I think like it's,
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  it's the whole thing has like,
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  made me want to say nicer things about Talarico than I really
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  believe,
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  if you know what I mean?
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  SPEAKER_01: Like,
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  SPEAKER_01: I don't feel like Talarico's campaign has been,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  amazing or that he stands a particularly large chance of
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  winning an election in
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  SPEAKER_01: Texas.
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  SPEAKER_01: But the attacks that were leveled on him by Allred and then...
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  Crockett's version of making a case for herself have been like
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  so bad that it like
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  keeps making me want to like bend over backwards and hype up
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  Telerico when my like
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  actual opinion is that Josh Turek in Iowa is the candidate who
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  like deserves to be
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  SPEAKER_01: hyped up and has a real chance of winning and
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  SPEAKER_01: I'm like intrigued.
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  You know,
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  sadly,
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  the Politics Podcast has not received a lucrative polymarket ad
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  placement.
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  But it is notable that the gamblers think Telerco is going to
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  win this primary.
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  SPEAKER_01: The polling is much, much, much more mixed.
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  SPEAKER_01: And so,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  it'll be interesting to see if there's some actual insight
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  there or just people on
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  SPEAKER_01: one.
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  Like the idea is that pulling a Democratic primary in Texas is
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  hard because the
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  SPEAKER_00: state is big and there aren't very many Democrats and they're appealing.
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  SPEAKER_00: They're appealing to.
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  SPEAKER_00: And there's a lot of non-voters that they are appealing to.
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  SPEAKER_00: Right.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so.
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  SPEAKER_01: They're trying.
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  There hasn't been a vigorously contested Democratic Party
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  primary in Texas in a long time.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
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  SPEAKER_01: Like there have been races and like, you know, like.
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  SPEAKER_01: Beto's 2018 Senate campaign got a lot of people excited.
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  SPEAKER_01: It came very close.
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  SPEAKER_01: But like the nomination was a cakewalk.
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  SPEAKER_01: Right.
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  SPEAKER_01: Like we we haven't had like a vigorously contested statewide primary.
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  So the pollsters are I don't want to say they're pulling it out
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  of their asses,
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  SPEAKER_01: but they're just guessing.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_01: As to what a Texas Democratic Party primary electorate looks like.
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  SPEAKER_01: They have no idea.
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  SPEAKER_01: There's no there's nothing to model it on.
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  SPEAKER_00: So my views are fairly similar.
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  I think that when we talked about this,
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  it was a very short primary,
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  right?
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  SPEAKER_00: Was that as soon as she entered the race,
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  there was a big freak out among Democrats because Crockett is
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  this kind of cult
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  SPEAKER_00: figure.
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  SPEAKER_00: People really admire her in the grassroots of the party.
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  SPEAKER_00: And my suspicion was that
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  SPEAKER_00: people were imputing racism to the electorate.
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  SPEAKER_00: And then instead of saying, Crocky can't win because she's a black woman,
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  SPEAKER_00: coming up with other reasons to cast doubt on her campaign.
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  SPEAKER_00: And where they ended up is sort of like,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: all she is is a partisan fighter,
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  SPEAKER_00: but Texas is a very red state.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so if you're going to make this a blue v.
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  SPEAKER_00: Red election,
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  SPEAKER_00: you're going to lose if you're the blue candidate,
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  SPEAKER_00: which is like a defensible argument against her.
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  SPEAKER_00: But I don't think it was like what actually drove the freak out.
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  SPEAKER_00: Um,
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  SPEAKER_00: like if,
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  SPEAKER_00: if anything,
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  SPEAKER_00: Telerico is the more identifiably progressive candidate,
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  SPEAKER_00: um,
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  and Crockett only codes further left because of her race and
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  her gender and her,
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  SPEAKER_00: her like persona as,
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  SPEAKER_00: as a,
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  SPEAKER_00: like a black woman who fights.
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  SPEAKER_00: But like, there was other stuff.
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  SPEAKER_00: Like she,
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  she had been profiled by the Atlantic in a piece that was like
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  not flattering to
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  SPEAKER_00: her and made her seem,
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  SPEAKER_00: uh,
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  SPEAKER_00: Reckless and self-absorbed politically.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so I was kind of like,
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  SPEAKER_00: look,
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  SPEAKER_00: everyone admits she's a talented politician and a fierce campaigner.
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  SPEAKER_00: And if she's really undisciplined,
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  SPEAKER_00: she's going to,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: it's going to show in the primary,
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  SPEAKER_00: in the race,
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  SPEAKER_00: and then it'll be clear who should win.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I feel like she's run a very undisciplined campaign and should
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  should lose because Telerico has kind of proven that he can
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  keep a more even keel
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  SPEAKER_00: as a campaigner.
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  And I kind of think that that suggests he's going to win
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  because she is not
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  SPEAKER_00: behaving like a candidate who's got this in the bag,
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  SPEAKER_00: right?
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  Like where typically the candidate who's poised to win does not
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  lash out,
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  does not have these
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  like big swing unscripted moments,
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  trying to,
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  trying to really take down their opponents.
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  And Telerico has had the chill,
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  more of the chill that you'd expect out of a winning campaign.
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  Trump kind of screws this up because he always acts like he's
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  losing anyway.
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  SPEAKER_00: And then he's won twice.
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  SPEAKER_00: Right.
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  SPEAKER_00: So if I had to predict, I'd predict that Telerico is going to win.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I would say that that's the correct outcome.
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  SPEAKER_00: But as you say, it's like hard to know, hard to know.
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  SPEAKER_01: So,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: so I was just in South Carolina at this Third Way conference,
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  SPEAKER_01: and there was lots of,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: DC mods and,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: various people kicking around.
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  SPEAKER_01: But also...
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  you know,
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  Democratic Party elected officials from South Carolina who do
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  exist.
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  SPEAKER_01: And they're predominantly African-American.
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  SPEAKER_01: And if you talk to those people about politics,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  the kind of Black Democrat elected official who lives in South
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  Carolina and comes
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  SPEAKER_01: to a third-way conference in Charleston,
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  SPEAKER_01: it's an,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: idiosyncratic group of people.
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  SPEAKER_01: But, like, all those people will tell you, you know...
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  African-American Democrats are more moderate on average than
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  white Democrats,
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  that they are highly motivated by the idea that the Republican
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  Party is full of
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  SPEAKER_01: racists.
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  SPEAKER_01: And like, that's why they're Democrats, not necessarily like
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  SPEAKER_01: across-the-board left-wing public policy opinions,
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  that in particular African-American Democrats are more
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  religious and more sort of
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  SPEAKER_01: culturally traditionalist than white ones.
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  SPEAKER_01: And they will then make a,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: electability pitch,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: that,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: we need across the South the Democratic Party to have,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: more the vibe of
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  SPEAKER_01: people like us, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: That in a state that's less red,
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  SPEAKER_01: like Georgia,
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  SPEAKER_01: you have Raphael Warnock as- I was going to say,
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  SPEAKER_01: but what they have in mind is Warnock,
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  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, he says.
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  SPEAKER_01: So this is what I'm saying.
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  SPEAKER_01: So there's a world in which, you know, you're looking at Crockett, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: The world we were in a couple of months ago where this launches and,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: she's a black Democrat from the South-
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  SPEAKER_01: right,
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  SPEAKER_01: who,
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  SPEAKER_01: again,
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  SPEAKER_01: she's been a strong partisan,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: who's been viral oftentimes on MSNBC,
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  SPEAKER_01: but who,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: she has these progressive critics who are like,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: she's actually business friendly in a lot of ways,
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  SPEAKER_01: blah,
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  SPEAKER_01: blah,
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  SPEAKER_01: blah.
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  SPEAKER_01: You could have,
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  there could have been a world in which she mounted for herself
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  the kind of pitch
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  that I was hearing from South Carolina Black Democrats on
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  behalf of themselves that
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: Talarco is a bit of a like,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know, like an Austin phenomenon, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: Like, he's in a red state, but Austin is not just like liberal.
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  SPEAKER_01: It's like liberal in a particular kind of way, you know what I mean?
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  SPEAKER_01: Like educated, cultural, progressive kind of people.
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  SPEAKER_01: And if you look at the polling...
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  I wouldn't say that there's a clear ideological distinction
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  between Talarco and
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  SPEAKER_01: Crockett in terms of how they have campaigned,
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  SPEAKER_01: but in terms of who is voting for them,
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  SPEAKER_01: right?
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  Because Crockett's electoral base is African-Americans and
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  because Talarco's
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  SPEAKER_01: electoral base is like young white people who are –
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  SPEAKER_01: like receiving smart takes about politics on the internet.
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  SPEAKER_01: The Talarico voters are way more left wing than the Crockett voters,
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  SPEAKER_01: which to me again,
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  underscores that there's like a different version of this
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  campaign in which I'm now
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  SPEAKER_01: on here saying like Jasmine Crockett was the way better choice.
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  SPEAKER_01: She just didn't like she didn't run that campaign.
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  SPEAKER_00: They occupied the opposite niches that you would expect, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: Like that
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  That in Texas,
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  which is politically quite like the Deep South,
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  but not exactly,
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  right?
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  SPEAKER_00: That if you're going to run as a black candidate statewide,
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  SPEAKER_00: you want that Warnock profile of rectitude,
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  SPEAKER_00: reasonableness,
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: and religiosity,
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  SPEAKER_00: ideally,
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: And that Warnock has those three things.
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  SPEAKER_00: Right.
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  And she left those characterological traits to Telerico and she
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  adopted the,
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  what you would maybe expect of a white candidate trying to come
• 11:12
  in and win that
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  SPEAKER_00: primary as a,
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  SPEAKER_00: as a,
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  SPEAKER_00: as sort of dark horse,
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  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: Like,
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: The aggressive,
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: always punch back,
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_00: if you're going to win,
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: you're going to have to take big swings kind of thing.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: And so it's been very confounding.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_00: I think that that's what you're saying, right?
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: So I'll also say,
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_01: the other thing about Texas,
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 11:32
  where Texas differs from Georgia or South Carolina is that the
• 11:35
  African-American
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_01: share of the population is much smaller than in the Southeast.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_01: But Texas has instead is a very large Latino population.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_01: Um,
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_01: logically,
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  I feel like Democrats have tried everything in Texas over the
• 11:48
  past decade other
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_01: than,
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 11:51
  nominating one of the many moderate Latino elected officials
• 11:56
  who are in the state
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_01: of Texas to run statewide,
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_01: even though that seems like the logical play.
• 12:03
  So another primary in Texas that's happening I'm very
• 12:05
  interested in is Bobby Polito
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_01: is running in a kind of reach house seat in South Texas.
• 12:12
  He is a more progressive opponent,
• 12:14
  but I think he's going to win his primary.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_01: He's a really interesting guy because he is a Tejano music star.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_01: who,
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_01: has always been interested in politics,
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_01: apparently,
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_01: but has decided to run for office.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_01: So what he has that,
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_01: with all due respect to Vincent de Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar,
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: he has,
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: real charisma,
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_01: as,
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_01: a performer.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I think, like...
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know a lot about Tejano music,
• 12:41
  but like he's got all these music videos and interviews and
• 12:43
  he's really funny and
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_01: charismatic and so on and so forth.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_01: So if he gets into the house,
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_01: which will be a stretch,
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_01: but it's doable,
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_01: he will,
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_01: become a star figure,
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_01: but who also has like the right kind of profile for a statewide Texas,
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_01: whereas like
• 13:03
  Both Tolarco and Crockett have like managed to receive a lot of
• 13:07
  national media
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_01: attention based on like different kinds of internet clips.
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  SPEAKER_01: And they're like,
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  SPEAKER_01: they're talented people who in a different,
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_01: like in a state that wasn't so conservative,
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  SPEAKER_01: I'd be like,
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 13:19
  it would be good for the Democratic Party to just like have
• 13:22
  more skilled modern
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_01: communicators in office.
• 13:24
  Like we could do better than Sheldon Whitehouse and like Jeff
• 13:28
  Merkley with these
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_01: safe Senate seats.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_01: Like those guys are not,
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_01: With all respect to Jeff Merck,
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_01: like they're not doing anything,
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_01: and like if Jasmine Crockett had a safe seat from Rhode Island,
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  SPEAKER_01: she'd be like firing off some zingers and confirmation hearings,
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_01: like which would be cool.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_01: But it's just like it's hard to win in Texas.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: OK,
• 13:47
  but part of the reason this race got national attention is that
• 13:51
  on the Republican
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_00: side.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans seem poised to nominate Ken Paxton,
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_00: who's scandal plagued and corrupt and seems very beatable,
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_00: like.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_00: More beatable than Ted Cruz in a statewide race, I think.
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_00: And so it and if Democrats were to win it, that's a huge deal.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_00: I think it makes sense.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_00: why people have focused on this race.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that the unpredictability of it is like,
• 14:22
  is actually compounded by the fact that the rules there allow
• 14:26
  people who are
• 14:27
  registered as Republicans to vote as spoilers in the Democratic
• 14:30
  primary and vice
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_00: versa,
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: So that if you don't have like a,
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_00: If you don't have a dog in the,
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_00: in the Tallerico Crockett race,
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: you,
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: you should vote for Ken Paxton in the primary to try to,
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: to try to rat fuck whoever,
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: the Republicans.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_00: And vice versa,
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 14:45
  like you said that Tallerico has the more progressive base
• 14:48
  because it's whiter,
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: but he also is winning Latinos.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that like, I don't know.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: A really underexplored venue for political science.
• 14:59
  You think,
• 14:59
  I think that there are going to be a lot of Republicans voting
• 15:01
  for Crockett.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_01: I think that will happen.
• 15:04
  I also think that political scientists need to spend more time
• 15:07
  looking at the
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_01: question of candidates whose names ended vowels winning Latino votes.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, you think that's it?
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think there's like a note.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_01: You know, he's on TV and he like.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_01: I know, no, I know.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_01: But like people don't pay a lot of attention.
• 15:22
  There's like a Portuguese ancestry Republican from the Central
• 15:27
  Valley in California
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_01: who does really well with Latino voters.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_01: Barack Obama did really well with the Irish.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_01: Sure.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I mean, that's a joke.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_01: But,
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_01: I do think,
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_01: if he if he rebranded as like Jaime Talarco,
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_01: you could be you could be getting somewhere.
• 15:42
  So I am fascinated in the fact that like like the the gamblers
• 15:49
  strongly believe
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_01: like on Polymarket,
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_01: it's 72 percent Talarco and Paxton.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_01: Which relatively.
• 15:57
  Like for for the that to be the joint outcome of like two
• 16:02
  different primaries,
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_01: which both of which have very mixed polling,
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_01: that is like an aggressive gambling that is going on there.
• 16:10
  So I think that's what's going to happen to 72 percent odds on
• 16:16
  that seems like
• 16:18
  that's like a level of certainty that I would not be
• 16:20
  comfortable expressing.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: You need to talk to Nate Silver about what what odds mean.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_00: That's not that good.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_00: Well, for two.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_00: I mean.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's fine.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_01: Like maybe maybe I put it at 60, but that's pretty similar.
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_01: So,
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 16:38
  I guess I'm siding with the conventional wisdom that we're
• 16:40
  going to get Talarco
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_01: Paxton.
• 16:42
  And because Talarco seems like a good candidate and Paxton
• 16:46
  seems like a bad candidate.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_01: That's going to make people want to go in on this in a general election,
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_00: even though it'll be very expensive.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_00: Paxton looks quite strong and Talarico looks,
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: we don't know,
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_00: because the polling's weird and he seems to be a little bit ahead.
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_00: So it's like one thing is a 90% probability.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_00: The other thing is maybe like a 60% probability.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_00: They're linked because people can cross over.
• 17:10
  But the fact that it washes out at seven does not strike me as
• 17:13
  like crazy...
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_00: gambling.
• 17:15
  It just seems like gamblers kind of doing what Nate Silver
• 17:19
  would tell them to do.
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_00: They're gambling.
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_00: They're betting.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_00: People should not gamble like this.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_00: Anyway,
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_00: let's talk about Iran because people probably,
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: speaking of things people shouldn't be gambling on,
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_00: but apparently were.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, that Khomeini out bet.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_01: That was a tough one.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_00: I don't even,
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: we need to do,
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: we should probably do an episode on the morally corrosive explosion of
• 17:44
  political gambling on questions that political actors can
• 17:48
  control the outcome of.
• 17:50
  Because there seems to have been a lot of that happening,
• 17:52
  possibly including with this war.
• 17:54
  And that's something that I think Democrats should talk about
• 17:58
  investigating if they take over.
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_00: Like, who was gambling?
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_00: on the start of the war, on who was going to die in the war.
• 18:04
  This was the other crazy thing that happened at Third Way
• 18:07
  Conference that I want to
• 18:08
  mention is like Jim Messina did this talk where he was making
• 18:11
  like a lot of
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_01: interesting points about politics and life and Barack Obama and stuff.
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_01: And then he just like swerved hard into like,
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_01: and what Democrats need to do is embrace,
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: like just like embrace reckless,
• 18:23
  SPEAKER_01: constant gambling everywhere.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_01: And I thought that was really bad, really dumb.
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_00: And it turns out
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_00: The Jim Messina works for.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_00: I thought he would work for a crypto company.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_00: Does he work for a gambling company?
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_00: I, I, these I think are becoming one thing.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_00: Interesting.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so, so I say thumbs down.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 18:48
  SPEAKER_00: I think the less said about Jim Messina, the better.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_00: Honestly.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I don't know.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_00: So, okay.
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_00: So like, isn't he almost single handedly responsible for Brexit?
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think that's accurate.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe that's a little unfair, but like double handedly, one of two hands.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_01: He brought us David Cameron.
• 19:07
  Anyway,
• 19:08
  I think Democrats should be more culturally conservative,
• 19:11
  not less.
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_01: That's my that's my third way take.
• 19:14
  Okay,
• 19:14
  so Iran,
• 19:15
  we completely destroyed their nuclear program back in June.
• 19:19
  SPEAKER_01: Obliterated.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_01: According to Donald Trump.
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_01: Problem solved.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_01: And yet we are back at war.
• 19:26
  SPEAKER_01: Something that I noticed happened after this.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_00: Also,
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_00: I just want to say we're back at war,
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_00: but it's already much more out of hand than the like,
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_00: we're going to take out the Natanz facility thing.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's hard to say.
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, after the Natan strike, there was a 12 days of hostilities.
• 19:50
  But like,
• 19:51
  I don't recall Iran basically firing off all of its missiles at
• 19:56
  Gulf state cities.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_01: Sure.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_01: Well, so the the the the.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_01: U.S.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: or Israel or both very effectively decapitated the regime,
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_01: really,
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_01: really,
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_01: really earned into this,
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 20:10
  which is a much more aggressive move than they'd made in the
• 20:12
  previous thing.
• 20:15
  I don't know exactly what you hope will happen if you
• 20:19
  decapitate the regime.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_01: leadership of an adversary regime.
• 20:24
  We know that this was something that the United States of
• 20:27
  America tried to do in
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_01: both Afghanistan and Iraq,
• 20:32
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 20:32
  SPEAKER_01: was to,
• 20:32
  SPEAKER_01: in the very early phases of the war,
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_01: just kill the enemy leadership cadres.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_01: That was a strategic objective of early airstrikes in both of those wars.
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_01: But in both of those cases, it didn't work.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
• 20:45
  SPEAKER_01: Saddam Hussein was captured eventually,
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_01: but like not until actually long after the fall of Baghdad.
• 20:50
  Osama bin Laden famously was not captured at all in Afghanistan
• 20:55
  and was just
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_01: chilling in Pakistan for many,
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_01: many years.
• 20:59
  So this time that tactical objective was achieved and Khamenei
• 21:04
  and a number of
• 21:05
  SPEAKER_01: other top leaders were killed right away from
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_01: Which I don't know,
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_01: like maybe in the video game version of this,
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_01: it means that Iran surrenders right away.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: But what instead seems to have happened is,
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_01: the response from Iran has become quite disorganized,
• 21:26
  which has involved a lot of missiles and rockets going all over
• 21:30
  the region without
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_01: a like...
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_01: with your political structure decapitated,
• 21:37
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 21:37
  there's not like a strong statement from Iran as to like
• 21:40
  exactly what is happening,
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_01: Like there's not like a guy on television who's saying,
• 21:45
  we have fired these rockets at hotels in the United Arab
• 21:48
  Emirates because the UAE
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_01: is supporting the American invasion by doing X,
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_01: Y,
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_01: and Z.
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_01: But if they stop,
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_01: then we,
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_01: it's like nobody knows,
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_01: Like it's a very chaotic situation.
• 21:59
  SPEAKER_01: And
• 22:01
  The latest is that Israel seems to have done a strike on the
• 22:06
  Guardian Council while
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_01: they were meeting to officially designate a new supreme leader.
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_01: This is hard to cover, a fast-moving situation in a podcast.
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know what the outcome of that will be.
• 22:20
  But it's just also not clear what the purpose of making the
• 22:24
  situation in Iran as
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_01: chaotic as possible is.
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_01: like is right.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_01: Like that, that seems to be part of what's happening here.
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_01: It's not just like an attack on specific facilities,
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_01: but killing as many high ranking Iranian leaders as can be killed.
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_01: But then it's like,
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_01: what's the,
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_01: what's,
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_01: what's,
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_01: what's the,
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_01: what's the,
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_01: what's the,
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_01: what's the upshot of that?
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_00: you said,
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_00: you said that like it was effective in that it,
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_00: it,
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_00: it come in and got killed.
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it was successful.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_00: Well, yeah, but,
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_00: Except,
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_00: Trump is out there saying,
• 23:06
  we sort of had this idea about who would succeed comedy that we
• 23:10
  could work with,
• 23:12
  but we accidentally killed that person and many other people in
• 23:17
  the leadership
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_00: ranks,
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_00: so we don't really know who's left.
• 23:21
  who can,
• 23:22
  who can take over that we can treat as like the Delce Rodriguez
• 23:25
  of Iran.
• 23:26
  And,
• 23:27
  and I think that like Trump has many mixed motives for having
• 23:30
  done this.
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_00: None of which are like above board, but like,
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_00: There are reasons where if you like chloroformed him,
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_00: he would he would admit to him or whatever or truth serum to him,
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_00: but that he would not have done it.
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_00: But for the fact that something like what he had in mind here,
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_00: quote unquote,
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_00: worked in Venezuela,
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_00: where you had like an operationally tight mission.
• 23:54
  SPEAKER_00: Illegal or not,
• 23:55
  like it was carried out well and there was no political
• 24:00
  blowback at home that we
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_00: can see.
• 24:02
  I mean,
• 24:02
  it was not popular,
• 24:03
  but it didn't,
• 24:03
  it just kind of got forgotten,
• 24:05
  right?
• 24:07
  And because if that had turned into a fiasco,
• 24:10
  I don't think Iran would have happened,
• 24:11
  right?
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_00: But it didn't.
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_00: And so he convinced himself,
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_00: this is like a low risk in domestic political terms approach to A,
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_00: dealing with
• 24:22
  SPEAKER_00: you know, hostile nations abroad, but be kind of controlling U.S.
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_00: political discourse at home.
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_00: And so he did it.
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_00: Except now he's like, fuck.
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_00: I did it, I did it, and now what?
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_01: This is where I want to back it.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_01: before these strikes happened,
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_01: it was clear that there was,
• 24:45
  SPEAKER_01: there was a rising possibility that this was going to happen,
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_01: like all last week,
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_01: There was like a lot of talk.
• 24:52
  And a kind of like a talking point started to emerge that like
• 24:56
  it was like bad of
• 24:57
  Democrats to be raising like process objections to this course
• 25:01
  of action that Trump
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_01: was going on and that everybody just had to be like,
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 25:06
  SPEAKER_01: no war with Iran and like wear my,
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_01: Ayatollah pin or something.
• 25:10
  SPEAKER_01: But in terms of what's unfolding,
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_01: like I think you are seeing the value of process,
• 25:18
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 25:18
  SPEAKER_01: which is that we're now...
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_01: Instead of like a proper thing where in advance of doing something,
• 25:25
  the president provides some kind of explanation to Congress and
• 25:29
  to the American
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_01: people of what it is he's doing.
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_01: We're now like three, four days into the strike.
• 25:36
  And we continue to have these very shifting narratives as to
• 25:40
  like what the goal is,
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_01: what is happening here.
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_01: And there's different people floating around who, you know,
• 25:49
  The sort of cult-like structure of MAGA is that a lot of people
• 25:52
  are highly
• 25:53
  SPEAKER_01: motivated to support Trump's policies,
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_01: whatever the policies are.
• 25:59
  But you can tell from reading them that,
• 26:01
  like,
• 26:01
  they don't know what Trump's policies are,
• 26:03
  right?
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_01: So we got—you know,
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_01: we had,
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 26:06
  the 24 hours of scolding liberals for not being sufficiently
• 26:10
  invested in the
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_01: freedom of the Iranian people—
• 26:13
  But then Trump keeps like swerving and seeming to indicate that
• 26:17
  he would actually
• 26:18
  love a Delce Rodriguez type outcome in which there is no
• 26:21
  freedom for the Iranian
• 26:23
  SPEAKER_01: people at all,
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_01: but just some kind of,
• 26:25
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_01: deal.
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 26:29
  SPEAKER_01: But also,
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_01: unlike in Venezuela,
• 26:31
  like one thing in Venezuela is that the United States was
• 26:35
  driving 100 percent of
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_01: the action in Venezuela.
• 26:38
  SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
• 26:39
  SPEAKER_01: There was no other actor who was concerned with this at all.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_01: So even though there was probably a difference of opinion between,
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 26:48
  Donald Trump and people who are involved in Venezuelan
• 26:51
  opposition politics as to
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_01: what the outcome should be,
• 26:54
  SPEAKER_01: 100% of the power was in Donald Trump's hands.
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 26:59
  And so when Trump decided we want to stabilize the situation as
• 27:03
  quickly as possible
• 27:04
  under a new dictator from inside the regime with all of its
• 27:08
  structures in place,
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_01: that just happened.
• 27:11
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_00: This war.
• 27:15
  Crucially,
• 27:16
  I think that that arrangement was made before the strike was
• 27:20
  ordered.
• 27:21
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 27:22
  Because the competence is critical to your point about whether
• 27:26
  a process objection
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_00: is part of a workable opposition approach.
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 27:33
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just saying that like on the merits,
• 27:36
  SPEAKER_01: it actually matters what your process is.
• 27:39
  Because I think part of what is unfolding in Iran is that the
• 27:45
  relationship between
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_01: the United States and Israel in this war is very murky,
• 27:51
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 27:51
  with like different accounts of like whose actions are driving
• 27:56
  what and potentially
• 27:57
  SPEAKER_01: different objectives for the leadership of the different
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_01: countries.
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_01: And so my guess,
• 28:06
  SPEAKER_01: as with you,
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_01: because there is no process here,
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_01: so we are speculating as to what does Donald Trump think.
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_01: But I think,
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_01: and you think,
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_01: and I think most informed readers of the news think,
• 28:16
  SPEAKER_01: that Trump felt that what happened in Venezuela was a big success.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_01: And so Trump felt that he could just replicate that model in Iran.
• 28:27
  If you're Bibi Netanyahu,
• 28:28
  I don't know that that outcome in Iran looks like success.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_01: Like, I don't think that's what he wants.
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_01: I think from his standpoint,
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_01: if Iran turns into,
• 28:39
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 28:41
  SPEAKER_01: a spiral of chaos,
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_01: an Iraq-style,
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_01: years-long spiral of chaos,
• 28:46
  that's a better outcome than the Iranian state rapidly
• 28:49
  stabilizing itself,
• 28:51
  SPEAKER_01: forswearing all nuclear enrichment,
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_01: and then,
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_01: receiving sanctions relief from the United States,
• 28:57
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_01: And so, again, like...
• 29:01
  SPEAKER_01: None of these things are entirely certain,
• 29:02
  but it appears to be that Israel keeps doing double tap strikes
• 29:10
  on Iranian
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_01: political leadership.
• 29:12
  They are attempting to prevent the reconstitution of any kind
• 29:18
  of Iranian regime
• 29:19
  SPEAKER_01: that a deal could be made with,
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_01: while Trump is saying,
• 29:23
  SPEAKER_01: it's only going to last a couple of weeks.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to make a deal really soon.
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_01: But also,
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if any of that is true,
• 29:28
  SPEAKER_01: because we haven't had anything resembling an accounting of war aims,
• 29:34
  SPEAKER_01: of who is the tail and who is the dog here.
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_01: Mike Johnson's just saying stuff.
• 29:41
  SPEAKER_00: Can we bracket the Israel thing for just two minutes?
• 29:44
  SPEAKER_00: Because it's important,
• 29:45
  but I feel like we want to consider Israel's role here in the
• 29:49
  broader context of
• 29:51
  SPEAKER_00: intra-Republican recriminations,
• 29:53
  SPEAKER_00: which are
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_00: Crazy at the moment.
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that's good.
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_00: Like, I'm glad that big MAGA figures are turning against Trump over this.
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm glad that within the administration,
• 30:06
  there is a crisis of confidence about whether this was a good
• 30:08
  idea and people are
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_00: leaking and counter leaking.
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_00: That is all good.
• 30:12
  SPEAKER_00: But as to the importance of process,
• 30:18
  SPEAKER_00: I think there are many people on the left who,
• 30:23
  SPEAKER_00: broadly speaking,
• 30:26
  in terms of like analyzing the foreign policy inclinations of
• 30:30
  the two parties have
• 30:31
  SPEAKER_00: not covered themselves in glory.
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_00: And there's like a lot of criticism to be meted out.
• 30:37
  I think expecting Democrats to oppose this on more than just
• 30:41
  process grounds is valid,
• 30:43
  right?
• 30:43
  SPEAKER_00: Like, because what you don't want is for Democrats to oppose
• 30:51
  have a process objection to war in order to cover for the fact
• 30:55
  that at bottom,
• 30:57
  they're either scared to oppose the war on the merits or
• 31:00
  they're worried that like
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_00: the war might end up kind of okay.
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_00: And they don't want to be on the wrong side of it.
• 31:05
  SPEAKER_00: Like what,
• 31:07
  To me,
• 31:07
  the importance of the lack of process is that it's feeding the
• 31:13
  bad outcome of the war.
• 31:15
  And so the fact that Trump did something that he shouldn't have
• 31:19
  done and also did
• 31:19
  SPEAKER_00: it without a plan,
• 31:21
  SPEAKER_00: that's a coherent critique,
• 31:23
  SPEAKER_00: but it requires taking a position on the war itself.
• 31:26
  And there are a lot of people in grassroots progressive
• 31:28
  politics who understandably
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_00: feel that when Democrats start making decisions
• 31:33
  SPEAKER_00: Process noises about something like this,
• 31:35
  what they're what they're doing is they're keeping their option
• 31:38
  open to support the
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_00: merit of the of the invasion.
• 31:42
  SPEAKER_00: And there's no merit here.
• 31:43
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the issue.
• 31:45
  SPEAKER_00: Um,
• 31:46
  SPEAKER_00: so like I,
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_00: when I hear people looking at Chuck Schumer's statement and saying,
• 31:49
  SPEAKER_00: what the fuck is this?
• 31:51
  SPEAKER_00: Then I read the statement.
• 31:51
  SPEAKER_00: I'm like, oh yeah, what the fuck is this?
• 31:53
  SPEAKER_00: But broadly speaking,
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_00: I think that,
• 31:56
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 31:56
  SPEAKER_00: outside of Schumer,
• 31:57
  democratic opposition to this has been pretty solid in fusing a
• 32:02
  process critique
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_00: with a merits critique.
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_00: And that it's like all the way down to John Ossoff,
• 32:07
  SPEAKER_00: who's probably the most endangered Democrat in the Senate this cycle.
• 32:11
  You're not seeing a lot of fear to just oppose this on its own
• 32:15
  terms,
• 32:16
  and that's good.
• 32:18
  SPEAKER_00: So,
• 32:18
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 32:19
  SPEAKER_00: I just,
• 32:22
  you are right that the process matters because it will help
• 32:26
  determine whether this
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_00: becomes a big regional problem,
• 32:31
  SPEAKER_00: a quagmire,
• 32:31
  SPEAKER_00: a thing where gasoline is at $4 a gallon for months,
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_00: all that stuff.
• 32:35
  SPEAKER_00: How many people die, you know?
• 32:36
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 32:39
  SPEAKER_00: Without a plan, those things are likely to get worse.
• 32:44
  But process objections unto themselves are a lame way to oppose
• 32:53
  this and bring to
• 32:54
  SPEAKER_00: light how,
• 32:56
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 32:57
  SPEAKER_01: corrupt and unfounded...
• 32:59
  SPEAKER_01: I just think being lame is,
• 33:00
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_01: a totally valid option.
• 33:02
  SPEAKER_01: Like, I think it is fine and good that...
• 33:07
  SPEAKER_01: Ruben Gallego like put his chips in on like,
• 33:10
  SPEAKER_01: I am betting that this is going to turn out to be like a huge fiasco.
• 33:15
  And so me coming right out of the gate and being like,
• 33:17
  this is going to be a huge fiasco.
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_01: That's totally reasonable, completely reasonable course of action.
• 33:22
  He is a ambitious guy who has taken big risks before in
• 33:28
  politics and it's paid off.
• 33:29
  SPEAKER_01: So like, that's how he's doing it.
• 33:31
  SPEAKER_01: I also think it's like completely reasonable though, if you are, um,
• 33:36
  Mark Kelly from Arizona to just be like,
• 33:40
  I am going to express skepticism about this.
• 33:44
  SPEAKER_01: And then I'm going to see what is occurring over the next several days.
• 33:49
  SPEAKER_01: And I will adjust what I say based on what happens there.
• 33:52
  SPEAKER_01: Those are like both reasonable ways to play an event.
• 33:55
  SPEAKER_00: But you know what you didn't say about Ruben,
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_00: who you admire,
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_00: is that like,
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_00: what if Ruben just thinks that this is wrong?
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, like, I know what the truth is.
• 34:02
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 34:03
  SPEAKER_01: I think he does think that it's wrong,
• 34:04
  SPEAKER_01: but anybody who's like halfway honest with themselves,
• 34:08
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_01: after seeing what we saw in Venezuela,
• 34:11
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 34:13
  SPEAKER_01: three hours after the bombing starts,
• 34:16
  SPEAKER_01: you could be like,
• 34:18
  SPEAKER_01: you know, I think there's a 80% chance this turns into a huge fiasco.
• 34:23
  SPEAKER_01: I think there's a 55% chance this turns into a huge fiasco.
• 34:27
  SPEAKER_01: I think there's a 40% chance this turns into a huge fiasco.
• 34:30
  SPEAKER_01: Those are all good reasons to not do it, if you know what I mean.
• 34:33
  SPEAKER_01: But like, they are different opinions about the world.
• 34:37
  And if you came on CNN,
• 34:39
  right,
• 34:39
  if someone was like,
• 34:40
  Matt,
• 34:40
  like,
• 34:40
  what do you think about this?
• 34:41
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm like, well,
• 34:42
  you know,
• 34:43
  it could work out totally fine,
• 34:45
  but the upside doesn't seem that high.
• 34:47
  SPEAKER_01: And the downside, if it's a fiasco, is really big.
• 34:50
  SPEAKER_01: So I wouldn't really have done it.
• 34:51
  SPEAKER_01: Like, that's lame.
• 34:52
  SPEAKER_01: That's not like a good line for a politician to give.
• 34:55
  I also think it's like perfectly accurate characterization of
• 34:58
  what's happening.
• 34:59
  SPEAKER_01: And so it's,
• 35:00
  I just think it's fine that like some people wanted to go
• 35:02
  really hard and other
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_01: people wanted to keep their options open.
• 35:05
  SPEAKER_01: I think with Schumer, just Chuck Schumer,
• 35:09
  or also,
• 35:10
  I guess,
• 35:10
  Moskowitz in Florida,
• 35:11
  but I don't remember his whole history.
• 35:14
  SPEAKER_01: There's like a specific
• 35:17
  SPEAKER_01: of Chuck Schumer's view of Iran,
• 35:20
  which is that he uniquely in the caucus voted against the Obama
• 35:25
  Joint Comprehensive
• 35:26
  SPEAKER_01: Plan of Action,
• 35:27
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 35:27
  Like,
• 35:28
  he has a sharply divergent viewpoint of,
• 35:32
  like,
• 35:32
  the substance of U.S.
• 35:34
  SPEAKER_01: policy toward Iran that is a huge outlier inside the Democratic Party.
• 35:41
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know...
• 35:45
  SPEAKER_01: U.S.
• 35:45
  SPEAKER_01: policy toward Iran is like doesn't come up,
• 35:48
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 35:49
  SPEAKER_01: all that much in like work a day Senate votes.
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_01: But when it did come up,
• 35:53
  SPEAKER_01: like at a really critical moment,
• 35:54
  like the incumbent president of the United States of his party
• 35:58
  was trying to get a
• 35:59
  SPEAKER_01: deal done.
• 36:00
  SPEAKER_01: Schumer was like next in line for Senate leadership.
• 36:03
  SPEAKER_01: It was this was like maximum incentive for Chuck Schumer to
• 36:07
  to just,
• 36:07
  like,
• 36:07
  shut the fuck up and get on board and back President Obama.
• 36:11
  And he wouldn't do it because he has extremely strong personal
• 36:15
  convictions on this
• 36:16
  SPEAKER_01: issue that are out of step with the convictions of,
• 36:18
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 36:19
  SPEAKER_01: almost everybody else in the Democratic Party.
• 36:22
  SPEAKER_01: And so, like, there's a very good reason to...
• 36:26
  SPEAKER_01: take a skeptical look at his statements and actions on this.
• 36:30
  But I don't think that should generalize to just like everyone
• 36:33
  who wants to be a
• 36:34
  SPEAKER_01: little bit wishy-washy.
• 36:35
  SPEAKER_00: That's a fair point.
• 36:36
  But all of those people end up choosing who the leader of the
• 36:39
  caucus is and they've
• 36:40
  SPEAKER_00: chosen Schumer.
• 36:41
  And it's like,
• 36:43
  you know,
• 36:45
  in 2010,
• 36:46
  the leader of the Democratic Party was Harry Reid.
• 36:48
  SPEAKER_00: He was up for election in Nevada, which was just...
• 36:54
  SPEAKER_00: It was a very closely run state.
• 36:56
  SPEAKER_00: And Democrats,
• 36:57
  because of their long-run efforts to use their supermajority to
• 37:03
  reform the health
• 37:03
  SPEAKER_00: care system or losing special elections,
• 37:07
  SPEAKER_00: they were in rough shape.
• 37:09
  And Harry Reid's personal interest pointed against seeing that
• 37:13
  bill through to completion.
• 37:14
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 37:15
  SPEAKER_00: cut your losses,
• 37:16
  SPEAKER_00: pivot to something else,
• 37:18
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 37:18
  SPEAKER_00: would have been a totally reasonable thing for him to do.
• 37:21
  SPEAKER_00: And instead he did the leaderly thing and saw it through and then just,
• 37:26
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 37:27
  SPEAKER_00: fought his balls off to,
• 37:28
  SPEAKER_00: to win that election.
• 37:30
  SPEAKER_00: He won.
• 37:30
  SPEAKER_00: And like,
• 37:31
  SPEAKER_00: that is a,
• 37:32
  I think responsible approach to being a caucus leader and like
• 37:37
  letting your,
• 37:38
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 37:40
  like unique ideological hangups become a liability for the rest
• 37:45
  of the party is bad leadership.
• 37:49
  SPEAKER_00: And like, that's mostly his fault, but you know, like,
• 37:55
  SPEAKER_01: Sure.
• 37:56
  SPEAKER_00: Brian Schatz could mount a coup if he wanted.
• 37:58
  SPEAKER_01: I agree.
• 38:00
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, I agree with that.
• 38:01
  SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of issues with Schumer's leadership.
• 38:03
  SPEAKER_01: I just I just want to make a different point,
• 38:05
  which is that because I think we should take a break and we
• 38:07
  should we should talk
• 38:08
  SPEAKER_01: about the like assessments of Trump's foreign policy leadership.
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_01: But,
• 38:12
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 38:13
  there's a group of people who are at like themselves like
• 38:19
  outlier substantive
• 38:20
  SPEAKER_01: people.
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_01: opinions about foreign policy relative to the Democratic Party.
• 38:27
  And part of what they like to do to win their arguments is
• 38:32
  misportray where
• 38:34
  SPEAKER_01: mainstream Democrats stand on things.
• 38:37
  And so there was an effort to make it seem like not just like
• 38:41
  Chuck Schumer has
• 38:42
  SPEAKER_01: like super hawkish views on Iran,
• 38:45
  but that like everyone who didn't issue right away maximally
• 38:51
  blistering statements,
• 38:52
  SPEAKER_01: they were saying this before the bombing started,
• 38:54
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 38:55
  SPEAKER_01: That like...
• 38:56
  That like there was some like huge traitor caucus inside the
• 39:00
  Democratic Party on
• 39:01
  SPEAKER_01: this when there just isn't like it's Chuck Schumer.
• 39:03
  And also most members don't care that much about foreign policy
• 39:06
  because it's
• 39:08
  SPEAKER_01: fucking Congress,
• 39:09
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 39:09
  SPEAKER_01: and like that's just kind of how it goes.
• 39:12
  SPEAKER_01: But like the vast majority of Democrats are.
• 39:16
  have like different takes about like what you should say on
• 39:19
  television in a heated moment.
• 39:22
  But like they were all in opposition to this because there's
• 39:27
  like a partisan
• 39:28
  disagreement of longstanding for years as to whether the United
• 39:33
  States should try
• 39:34
  to make a diplomatic arrangement with Iran or whether the
• 39:36
  United States should go
• 39:37
  SPEAKER_01: to war with Iran.
• 39:38
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't think it's like a great idea to obfuscate that.
• 39:44
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, let's take a break and talk about Donald the Dove.
• 39:46
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 39:48
  SPEAKER_00: If you want to hear that part of the conversation,
• 39:49
  SPEAKER_00: go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.