Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Australia Bitcoin ETF Launches | U.S. Banks Collapsing?

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Australia Bitcoin ETF Launches | U.S. Banks Collapsing? · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:07
All right, today a lot in the news in terms of how banks are
0:10
faring, what the Dixie is doing. Is this as signs for something big
0:14
and bitcoin? And of course Australia also is launching their bitcoin etms. So
0:19
we'll cut it all up for you, guys. You're gonna love it.
0:21
My name is Paul Barrow. Welcome back into tech Path. Thanks for joining
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us live today. We do appreciate that. Make sure, if you're brand
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It helps out the channel. All right. You guys are having fun with
1:15
the wipes there today. All right. So a couple of things I want
1:19
to hit on. One is kobeec in their update here on the US economy,
1:23
kind of zoom in on that for you guys. Sixty three banks now
1:26
on the brink of default. According to the FDIC, over half a billion
1:30
or five hundred billion of paper losses held by the banks themselves. So basically
1:34
these are unrealized losses that and this has been something that we've been tracking and
1:38
have tracked even all the way back to Silicon Valley Bank when it failed and
1:42
was bailed out by the FDIC. Declining GDP growth, rising inflation. I
1:48
think that's another factor in there. Over fifty percent of Americans believe we're in
1:51
a recession. Do you guys think we are? I don't know, drop
1:53
it down some comments if you think we are in a recession right now.
1:57
It's it's kind of a very interesting position because there's a lot of people that
2:00
look at this as still a very bullish market, and then there are those
2:05
that say, hey, we're on the back end of it. Lowess mortgage
2:07
demand in over thirty years. I think this is a factor that we're going
2:10
to have to be watching very close. And then almost seventeen trillion in household
2:15
debt. That's the big problem around credit. Now, all that that's the
2:19
bad news, you know, I guess there are some other things. One
2:23
is, of course, the Dixie starting to see some decline here, so
2:27
flashing an important signal. A couple of points that I want to hit out.
2:30
Let me go over to the Dixie on the chart. This is on
2:34
the weekly and you can kind of see a little bit of a trend line
2:37
here that has been painted out on the weekly, and we have busted through
2:40
that over the last couple of weeks. It kind of went sideways. I
2:44
felt like I might see some adjustment there, but obviously busting through and it's
2:47
on the downturn here. This typically is good for risk assets, simply the
2:52
dollar starts to weaken, some market conditions starts to loosen up, and risk
2:55
assets start to become on risk. So definitely maybe a position where we might
3:01
start seeing some movement, which is kind of where we're seeing bitcoin an ethereum,
3:05
and even some of the all coins starting to make some moves today.
3:07
A couple of the points I want to get to here this tweet right here,
3:12
This was the one we covered. This was talking a little bit more
3:15
about the potential bitcoin boom around the banking collapse. Now, remember the last
3:21
time that we had a major banko down Silka Valley, we saw an immediate
3:25
correction, I shouldn't say correction, but an immediate flight to safety, so
3:30
to speak. Into bitcoin. It was one of the major assets that did
3:34
move. Gold moved as well, but Bitcoin was one of the biggest ones
3:37
that of course moved. The difference at that time there was no ETFs,
3:42
we weren't seeing the ETF flow around the world, and definitely a different market
3:46
condition overall. They gave insight to the condition of the forms US banking industry.
3:52
This is a reference to their scenario. But this is where it kind
3:54
of ranks in the unrealized our losses on secure. He's increased to buy thirty
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nine billion to five hundred and seventeen billion during the quarter. That's a lot
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when you think about that almost I guess that's about seven percent. That's a
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pretty big and significant jump. You can kind of see the chart there continuing
4:15
to push downward on these unrealized assets. So and most of it is in
4:20
helld to maturity security. So it's not gonna be something that gets resolved here
4:27
very soon for sure. Other things that you kind of have to look at,
4:30
and that is is this pressure going to give us a little bit more
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potential of a FED rate cut? Now? I was on with Darius Dale
4:39
yesterday and Darius had a little bit of a different spin on it. Go
4:43
back and check that video out with him. His was that he felt that
4:46
maybe there could be a rate cut as early as July. That would be
4:51
interesting because here's Joe Consorti talking about the odds on this, saying that the
4:56
September might be the target. But they've doubled in terms of the percentage wise
5:00
in just the last two weeks and now up to sixty percent possibility. Now,
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what has changed, you know when you look at rake cuts because we
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haven't really seen big signals coming in from inflation. Yes, maybe there are
5:14
some job numbers that are starting to sub report, and the FED might be
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getting some signals there as well as analysts. But I think the more and
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maybe major concern is the consistency and the solvency of banks going forward. I
5:28
think that's one of the biggest ones that we have to look at. Other
5:31
things to think about is well, if that is the fact that we're starting
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to see some pressure on the markets and we do see risk adds at starting
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to become mainstream, where are we going to see those kind of entry points
5:43
show up. In the past, it was you know, you know,
5:45
typical of exchanges and you know, hardware wallets, et cetera. Now it's
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changed up quite a bit because an average investor, especially high network investors as
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well as institutional have new ways to get into this. Australia is now jumped
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into the first spot bitcoin ETF with direct bitcoin holdings to go live on Tuesday.
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That's a pretty big statement because we've already seen a ton of you know,
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countries and exchange and I think when we look at ETFs in general start
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to really perform, outside of maybe a handful that have not performed to the
6:20
level obviously that we've seen you know, black rock et cetera go in there.
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But I think one thing that can when you kind of compare Australia a
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little bit different than say Hong Kong, a little bit different than say South
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America, as it is a you know, when you look at G seven
6:38
and G twenty countries, the capacity in Australia is still when I look at
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the data even on our own channel, Australia I think is number three right
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now as far as a country behind the UK in terms of crypto interest.
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So there could be a big appetite for this in Australia. We'll see how
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it performs very soon as it starts to go live here. So commercial they're
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dropping it right now in Australia for the launch of the first bitcoin ETF in
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the country, So that in itself probably a good news question. Will it
7:11
pace with something like a black rock Maybe not necessarily, but it definitely has
7:15
an opportunity to have some impact and it could be what we're seeing right now
7:19
in terms of bitcoin. I'll jump over to the bitcoin chart. Let me
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go to the daily though, and flip up to bitcoin real quick, because
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we are starting to move a little bit over seventy k right now, getting
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ready to say yeah, seventy five hundred. We've been tracking sentiment on this
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for a while, tracking somewhat in line right now, but it does look
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right now, it's still to the upside. Eve starting to get thirty eight
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hundred back into the positive here, so we could see some things there.
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And Solana also making a move today as well on the daily so nice little
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move right there at almost three percent. Make sure and drop some comments over
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on the side. We'll try to get some questions there. Looks good.
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Guys, got the queue up here for the social readout, so I can
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get to those questions. I'll try to get to those as many as I
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can. Also love to get your comments on the poll today, so make
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sure and drop in on that as well. Further into today, Thailand is
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also embracing bitcoin first ETF approved now for wealthy investors, so you can kind
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of see it starting to really show a lot of alignment with most of the
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financial markets around the world. So on, EAM suggests that investors allocate this
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was kind of an interesting statement, allocate five percent of their portfolio to bitcoin
8:37
for an annual return of around nine percent. This I think is going to
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start to climb as we see more and more traditional asset classes start to compete
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with bitcoin now as what I believe is maybe finally at the table in the
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sense of that twelfth sector, but also being looked at and qualify as this
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is a real asset. We need to start deploying capital into it. If
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you see this around the world, whether it's the United States, the EU,
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which we'll see now I think much more prevalent with MIKA standards starting to
9:13
make their way Australia now in the game. We already saw Canada moving into
9:16
this well before everyone, but doesn't necessarily have the population to be able to
9:22
drive it. I think those are the factors that you got to keep an
9:24
eye on. Here's a good breakdown right here, bitcoin spreading like wildfire and
9:28
traditional finance, US ETFs, King UK ETPs, Hong Kong ETFs, South
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Korea, Australia and Thailand all lining up for sure. A couple other things
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you want to hit on right here, and that of course is a bitcoin
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ETF's making up about twenty six percent of black rocks twenty twenty four inflows,
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fifty six on percent of fidelities inflows. That's a significant amount. On fidelity.
9:54
Wow, I didn't realize it was that high. So you look at
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that kind of inflow, remember fidelity if they've been doing bitcoin and ethereum acquisition
10:07
within the Fidelity system for quite some time. In fact, it's probably one
10:11
of the first places that you could go out and actually acquire bitcoin and ethereum
10:16
for a person that had not had any exposure. Maybe that's why we're seeing
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so much push there from Fidelity. So Vanguard interesting top ten etf issuers by
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year to day inflows Vanguard holding one, Blackrock now coming in number two in
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Vesco, JP Morgan, et cetera. But that's pretty cool to see that
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Blackrock currently lists four and twenty nine ETFs that hold a total of two point
10:39
eight trillion assets under management. Fidelity, on their hand, only lists seventy
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for seventy four billion in AUM, so not bad. Those are the two
10:50
top ones. I think that's what it's going to become, is kind of
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a two horse race as we start to see some even remember Kathy Wood made
10:58
the state that she was essentially kind of stepping out mainly because of profitability.
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This is a great chart right here kind of shows the visual of the bitcoin,
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the ETF holdings, and who's kind of in position right here. You
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see the green right there, Black Rocks starting to overtake GBDC, and of
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course they do it over this past thirty days here at the end, right
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boom, And now it's kind of flipped. And I think that's going to
11:24
be the case for quite some time because we're going to see a new standard
11:26
there. Now when you look forward, is this the end of this bull
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run? Are we at the back half of it? Is this just the
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beginning? A lot of different analysts pointing at different directions. We still see
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macro playing into this, we still see scenarios playing out with inflation, and
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I think the consideration that you have to look at is where are we in
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this cycle right now? Remember S and P continuing to make all time highs.
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Here's a clip from ed Yardini. He goes into a little bit about
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where we are in the cycle. Take a look the analyst estimates of earnings
12:01
for this year, next year, in the following year. They've been raising
12:05
their numbers. So all in all, this certainly justifies the bull market.
12:09
Yeah, you've got year end targets fifty four hundred for the S and P
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five hundred by the end of this year, six thousand by the end of
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next year, and I think it's sixty five hundred by the end of twenty
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twenty six. That is part of your Roaring twenties analysis. We're not talking
12:24
in easting twenties. We're talking the twenty twenties this time. So you still
12:28
see a long way to go with this bull market. I do. I
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think it's actually fairly early on. It's some people are talking about it being
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mid cycle, a bull market, are getting near the end of the story,
12:41
but I don't think that's the case. I think we're going to continue
12:45
to see surprisingly strong productivity. We're not seeing that obviously in the first quarter
12:50
numbers, but last year we had very strong productivity, and I think that's
12:54
going to continue into this year and beyond. So yes, I think there
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are similarities between the twenty twenties in thee in the nineteen twenties, and that's
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technology led productivity that increased standards of living, which I think we're seeing now.
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All right, So, whether you believe what he's talking about or not,
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there are other analysts out there also pointing in this direction. I haven't
13:20
seen too many people that have been much more bearish now. Darius Dale was
13:24
a little bit more conservative, saying that we were kind of more toward the
13:28
back half of this. Tom Lee also had a different take, and he's
13:31
been on our show many times in terms of clips breaking down. He's very
13:35
probic goin so just kind of be aware of that. But play this clip
13:39
for you guys, see what you think. And once again, you're doing
13:43
exactly what I tell you not to do, Tom, and that is giving
13:46
a price target and a time frame. Never do both, never do one
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or the other. But you're doing it again. So fifty five hundred on
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the S and P by the end of June. It's hard not to not
14:00
to talk about that immediately based on Tom lower inflation, that's right. I
14:05
think there's a fundamental case, Joe, which is inflation is coming in softer
14:11
than expected, and I think the job market is sort of it's cooling but
14:16
not weakening dramatically, and I think that's a good situation for equities. And
14:22
I think that the sell off in April actually hasn't really been fully recovered,
14:28
and that's why we expected a rebound in May. But I think that carries
14:31
over into June, and there's still six trying to cash on the sidelines,
14:35
and margin debt's still way below where it was in October twenty twenty one,
14:39
so we know investors really aren't that long yet, so I think that comes
14:43
together this month. So that's an interesting statement there, because when you look
14:48
at the S and P right now, what he's talking about is this sell
14:50
off right here in the month of April driving back down to around forty nine
14:56
hundred. If this target were to be correct and it gets to fifty five
15:01
in that range, you're talking about a ten percent move here over that period
15:05
of time of those who maybe participated in that sell off acquisition. So if
15:09
that is the case, then you're going to see some positive movements I think
15:11
overall in all coins. You'll probably see quite a bit of movement and shifts
15:16
within Bitcoin in ethereum, but it definitely does point to some you know potentials
15:22
here. Now again, you know, inflation still a factor, the Fed
15:28
still holding it. Remember, all of this is happening with interest rates still
15:31
very high and higher for longer. So it's not as though the Fed has
15:35
said, you know, we're going to even start to look at a retracement.
15:39
Remember that, and I think it was Darius that talked about this before,
15:45
is that when we start to see those retracements or signs of it.
15:48
That's typically the beginning of the end, you know, meaning the end of
15:52
the bull run. So those are the kind of things that you kind of
15:54
watch for overall. Let me get to a couple other things here. I
16:00
think I had one more clip here. Yeah, oh yeah, Tom was
16:02
going into his price prediction. Take a look what he said here. We're
16:04
still constructive on bitcoin. There's the tailwinds that are associated with the having that
16:11
just took place. We also know because of the Bitcoin etf and there have
16:15
been tremendous inflows, but institutional sort of adoption and infrastructure being built around bitcoin
16:22
is only beginning. And that makes you know, crypto, especially bitcoin,
16:26
a bona fide asset class. And I think that sort of widening ownership is
16:32
going to be propelling bitcoin two one hundred and fifty thousand and again, surprise
16:36
that not maybe surprising, You're not surprising. You know, bitcoin still follows
16:40
math, you know, you know, more than eighty seven percent of the
16:42
move in Bitcoin still follows just a number of wallets and the activity per wallet
16:47
and both are moving higher. All right, So there you have bitcoin.
16:51
I mean, he's still very bullish on it. Obviously, he's been one
16:52
of the bulls. I think in traditional Wall Street neck Garassi talks about launching
16:57
tomorrow before spot ETF, so two x leverage now with ETH futures, another
17:02
regulatory success or, this coming on the CBOE. This is their new issue
17:07
there on the futures. The other thing to consider here is remember is that
17:14
we've got a couple of opportunities here when you look at an ETH launch from
17:18
an ETF standpoint. This is happening later in June. And how much will
17:25
we see moving into ETH ETFs, because this is a debated topic, and
17:29
I'd love to get you guys, do you think we'll see the kind of
17:33
interest level that we saw in the early stage, maybe necessarily in the capacity
17:37
side, but let's just scale that based on market cap and look at that
17:41
in comparison to bitcoin. Would you say that, hey, it's probably going
17:44
to have a very similar performance overall. Another thing I want to get on,
17:48
and this was the SEC and hester Paris talking about why the ETF with
17:53
ethereum was launched. Take a look what happened. It really felt like nothing
18:00
was going to happen. There was sudden movement at the agency, a lot
18:03
of speculation going on about what was happening behind closed doors, what happened,
18:07
and when you think about the legal history that we the recent legal history that
18:12
we had with being told that our approach to the bitcoin ETP was not consistent
18:18
with the law, and then when you line up the the e ETP alongside
18:23
the Bitcoin ETP, the facts are very similar. I wouldn't want to have
18:29
us have a similar legal opinion coming out of a judicial opinion coming out of
18:33
the court. So from my perspective, we didn't really have a whole lot
18:37
of choice, just as we didn't have a whole lot of choice on the
18:40
bitcoin ETP. I know the timing people were wondering what would happen and when
18:45
it would happen, but realistically we didn't have that many options. Basically,
18:49
they were cornered, put into a position where, you know, kind of
18:52
the legal framework had pretty much done the job of trying to make up the
18:57
decision for the overreach that we saw coming. The SEC quite humbled there,
19:00
though, I think overall other things to look at that are happening right now
19:06
Blackrock this. Of course, if you guys have watched our show, you
19:10
probably have seen one of our interviews that we did with Carlos Domingo, who
19:14
is the CEO over Securitize. Securitize one of the companies, well, the
19:18
company behind Biddle of course, the company behind Blackrock in terms of the largest
19:25
tokenized fund now, so for US dollar yields to holders, So that is
19:29
in itself probably going to continue to see some heavy movement. There are some
19:33
things that are happening right here. This is just securit Ties talking about ubs
19:37
talking about their particular scenario around family offices. This is going to open up
19:41
a lot more opportunity right there. Family offices three hundred and two each have
19:47
an average network around two point six billion. So if you think about that
19:49
versus yield and what the opportunity is here, could they start seeing a lot
19:55
more activity at least a portion of those portfolios going into that kind of activity
20:00
If we see that, obviously, this is going to put some heavy movement
20:03
on ethereum here, of course, is Carlos right here. This Wednesday,
20:07
he's going up to Congress on a hearing that we'll be covering called the next
20:12
Generation Infrastructure. How token is is of real world assets will facilitate efficient markets.
20:18
This is going to be a big deal. The reason is that,
20:22
and we did a video on this yesterday. There is a bit of a
20:26
pushback obviously from the anti crypto Army Senator Warren's group. We'll see how they
20:33
fare tomorrow, because I think Carlos will do a really good job in explaining
20:36
this and why the value of this is going to be so important. So
20:38
check that video out over there. We're going to get into some questions over
20:41
here for you guys. On man, you guys get a lot of tokens
20:45
in here, so we'll look at some of those. But let's go over
20:47
to the poll real quick. Let's take a look, all right, how
20:51
much longer until bitcoin etf hype kits boring? One year right now? Was
20:56
number one? And this is interesting because we had a little bit of a
21:03
running tab on this before we started on this. So forty two percent,
21:04
you guys still think it's about a year out. It could be because of
21:08
the number of bitcoin ETFs that still could be coming in from a lot of
21:12
different places around the world. So yeah, possibly. All right, Joey
21:17
says, what are your personal top three highest conviction cryptos? Well, I
21:22
still think that we're going to see ethereum in the in the race in a
21:25
very good way. Solano will be in the race. I think Avalanche is
21:29
going to have so much in terms of, you know, real world assets,
21:33
and they're coming along very well in the gaming sector. So I still
21:37
like those three. If I had to pick three, those would probably be
21:38
my three. Now, there's a lot of other ones out there that are
21:41
going to do much better that I still go into and I do a lot
21:45
of those kinds of bets. Those are very high risk. You guys should
21:48
join our mastermind to learn a little bit more about that. How bullish are
21:51
you on XRP Fairly bullish? Fairly bullish. I like what's going to happen
21:55
this summer. We're going to see a lot more stable coin. Watch that
21:57
we did a full video on this this week. Go back and check that
22:00
video out. It's there's a lot of interesting things that are being revealed around
22:06
this, and timing could be a big factor for them. Do you think
22:08
Warren and Gensler and friends will UH and the anti crypto are gone for good?
22:14
No, I don't think they are. I think we still are in
22:17
a race right now with not only the administration, but I think also we've
22:23
got to get through the Senate. Remember, you know, SAD one twenty
22:27
one was venot and that's now going to go back to the you know,
22:33
to Congress and try to get an overwhelming condition in terms of support. And
22:37
the only way that's going to happen is if we can get a lot of
22:41
senators moving in that direction. So those things are still happening. All right,
22:45
here's Samuel, He says. The only celebrity token it's doing well Iggy's
22:48
mother. Yeah, we did a full I don't know if it's out yet.
22:52
Are we dropping that one today? No, We've got a video for
22:55
you guys coming that. It's going to be breaking down a lot of these
22:57
meme tokens on base and also on Solana. Watch that video. I think
23:02
we'll probably drop it tomorrow. But it's a big one to catch for sure.
23:06
Michael says, what do you think about Stacks? You know, Stax
23:10
is a good hedge. I've been We've been in an out of Stacks.
23:12
It's not something I'm going into right now. Can our debas affect be affected
23:17
due to bank collapse? I think that's a possibility. The problem with our
23:21
debas right now is we don't see enough adoption yet it's still very early and
23:26
we show the real world assets tracking all the time. Even though biddle is
23:30
still a large portion of it, it's going to take a lot more,
23:34
Paul, what do you think about onto I own this token, I like
23:37
this token. I'm holding this token and we're going to continue to watch it
23:41
right now. But that's a good one. How many of these streams are
23:44
we doing about Dohna's approved for Well, we talked about it today, So
23:48
there, that's that's good. Anything on B and B or eth, anything
23:53
on B and B or eth is garbage. Okay, all right. Uniswap
23:57
is flying. Yeah, they are, and I like uniswap. If you
24:00
compare that to what's happening with jube you look at you know, even aerodome.
24:06
I think there's there's a lot of decentralized exchanges out there. Unit swap
24:10
is probably one of the better ones in terms of if you're going to buy
24:12
a token, you know, so one in five Australians have Okay, so
24:18
there you go. That's a good point that we were trying to hit on,
24:19
is that this is one of the countries that has good density. The
24:23
difference is that they don't have three hundred and fifty million people. So even
24:29
though it's one in five, I don't know what the population of Australia is.
24:32
What is about What is it sixty seventy million I think right now,
24:34
So that still would be good because it's one in five. We're on the
24:40
back end of the bull run. Mike says, we are there. So
24:41
you're in the camp with Darius Stale. He says, we're on the back
24:45
end of the bull run. Crypto Fans says there should have been never been
24:48
an option on how long until bitcoinnets get boring? I like it for sure.
24:55
We'll see because we're going to do a lot more of that. Make
24:57
sure, guys, if you're not in the Diamond Circle that is our own
25:03
group and we drop emails, we'll put additional content in there sometimes if you
25:08
can't catch the streams over here, if we're dropping videos, you will catch
25:12
it via that way. So if you just join, use our link down
25:15
below and make sure and follow me on x it's just at Paul Baron.
25:18
We'll catch you next time right here on tech Bath