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Jul 06 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260706 This Monday edition of the Closing Market Report highlights a major, post-holiday surge across the agricultural commodity markets, driven primarily by an adverse late-summer weather forecast and renewed export interest from China. Host Todd Gleason reports substantial gains in corn, soybean, and wheat futures following recent contract lows. Market analyst Curt Kimmel of AgMarket.net discusses the logistical significance of China picking up soybean cargoes off the Pacific Northwest and the Gulf, noting that while the technical fundamentals haven't shifted, the buying enthusiasm provides critical support ahead of Friday's upcoming USDA WASDE report. In agricultural news, farm groups are actively pushing back against Bayer's request for anti-dumping duties on Chinese glyphosate imports due to concerns over narrowing farmer margins. Additionally, University of Illinois Extension entomologist Nick Seiter warns producers to actively scout for corn leaf aphids as crops enter their vulnerable tasseling stage, and Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman expresses hope to transition foreign food aid programs back under the jurisdiction of the USDA via a new farm bill. The program also features an in-depth economic perspective from University of Minnesota Extension economist Ed Usset, who views the current market rally as a classic post-July 4th weather market. While acknowledging the bump from hot, dry domestic forecasts and extreme heat hitting crops in France, Usset reminds producers that this rally serves as an excellent "second chance" to clean out remaining old crop inventories and execute scale-up sales on new crop corn and soybeans before defensive seasonal trends potentially return. Finally, Mark Russo of EverStream Analytics breaks down the broader global weather patterns, noting that while the core U.S. Midwest looks secure, a highly intense ridge of high pressure will bring crop-stressing heat to western plains states like Nebraska, Kansas, and South Dakota next week. Internationally, Russo reports a disastrous third heat wave accelerating crop deterioration for corn in France and parts of Eastern Europe, while unseasonal winter rains slightly slow the safrinha corn harvest in southern Brazil. 01:35 Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net 07:20 Bayer Requests Glyphosate Import Protections 08:00 Scout for Corn Aphids 09:12 Farm Bill Legislation May Attempt to Move Foreign Food Aid 10:54 Commodity Market Discussion with Ed Usset, University of Minnesota 18:04 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics --- 00:00 Introduction Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the sixth day of July, 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Curt Kimmel of AgMarket.net. We’ll discuss the fundamentals of the marketplace with Ed Usset from the University of Minnesota, and hear about the agricultural weather forecast for the day from Mark Russo. He’s at EverStream Analytics. And along the way, I’ll bring you up to date on the agricultural news, too, right here on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media, online on demand at willag.org. announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. 01:35 Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net Todd Gleason: September corn for the day settled 15 and a quarter cents higher, $4.38 and a quarter the settlement price. December, $4.57 and three quarters, up 16 and a quarter. And the March at $4.72 and a half, 16 and a quarter higher. August beans, $11.84, 47 and three quarters of a cent higher. September at $11.81, up 45. And November, 44 and a half cents higher at $11.92 and a quarter. Bean meal, $7.40 higher. The bean oil, up 99 cents. And wheat futures for the day on the soft red finished the September 14 and a quarter higher at $6.14. The hard red, up 11 and a quarter at $6.49 and three quarters. Here to discuss those numbers is Curt Kimmel. He’s at AgMarket.net. You’ve been waiting for the fire horse to take off, it looks like today was the day. Particularly after the July 4th holiday, what do you know? Does that set the tone, do you think, for a few days, a few weeks, a month or two? What’s in the offing? Curt Kimmel: Yeah, a happy 250th! So yeah, we’ll take it. It’s just like a bottle rocket here. This move today is, to some extent, we saw good support there last week, now we’re seeing some follow-through on it. Talk that China is actually picking up some beans, as much as five cargoes earlier in the day, but off the Pacific Northwest and out of the Gulf, both. The Pacific Northwest for October and the Gulf for September. The significance of the Pacific Northwest basically is that it’s going to help those guys tremendously if we see some confirmation, due to last year’s basis being as wide as $1.50. So, yeah, a little giddy up in through here, we just need confirmation of it. And the importance of the confirmation is we’ve got to start seeing these sales come on because of the time window and the shipping logistics. Now, whether it’s 25 million metric tons this calendar year or 25 million metric tons for the marketing year, either way, it’s got to be done here so we can get these beans ready to load and shipped out here before the transportation shifts to the Southern Hemisphere next spring. So that’s a good sign there if we see some corn and wheat involved too. But mainly forecast, these weather guys had that ridge moving west but coming back east here. A lot of the weather maps show the omega high blocking ridge coming in, then to the update for the August forecast remains warm and dry. So, there’s nothing more exciting to bring commodity fund money back into the marketplace whenever we see some type of adverse weather forecast. Then the worst part of it is, man, some heavy, heavy rainfall. You take some portions of northern Illinois into Wisconsin, into Minnesota, central part of Iowa, you know, up to 15 inches of rain along with some wind and some hail, and it’s just a total mess in some areas there. So, it’d be interesting to see how this crop looks as a whole from the standpoint. Yeah, rain makes grain, but boy, some of this crop still looks awful rough, Todd. Todd Gleason: So China being into the marketplace doesn’t really change the fundamentals at least on the supply and demand, but it just does change how those who are in the marketplace feel about them. We do have a WASDE report, a World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate due out Friday. What are your expectations going into it? Curt Kimmel: The team’s looking for just some actually follow-through from the Grain Stocks report. The ending stocks on new crop are going to be about 1.851, that’s down about 109 million bushels. That’s due to the drop in the expected on the Grain Stocks report. New crop bean carryout maybe around this 350 versus 310, and wheat just right around this 740, you know, as far as new crop goes. Just too early to really change yield a whole lot on anything, so just a reflection of that 100 million bushel change in the Grain Stocks report put into the supply-demand balance sheet. As far as the world supply-demand balance sheet, looking for world corn ending stocks down about, down to 279.7 versus 281.2. Bean ending stocks unchanged, and wheat ending stocks down about 2 million metric tons. So on the feed grain side of the equation, a little smaller, soybeans left unchanged. Todd Gleason: If you have the soybean new crop carryout increasing to 350 million from 310, does that mean that when you see a jump in the marketplace like today, you’re urging producers to either make catch-up sales or additional scale-up sales? Curt Kimmel: We feel so. This $12 benchmark, I know there are some analysts that came out through the day here quite excited, projecting, you know, maybe another dollar higher from here. But as we mentioned, as I’ve mentioned in the past here, hedge and defend. Raise your price floors, leave your upside kind of open in through here. I know it’s awful hard to get aggressive with the uncertainty when you look out your back window here and see either wind, hail, or too much rain, or even been too dry in some areas. So we kind of like being flexible for the most part, but $12 on beans or higher, or Dec corn back up into that $4.80 offers some opportunities to get caught up. Todd Gleason: Hey, thanks much. Anything else before I let you go? Curt Kimmel: No, we’re excited to see some excitement and enthusiasm back in. If you remember some of these buying sprees lasted two to three days, so hopefully we can follow through here going into the midweek. Todd Gleason: That’s Curt Kimmel. He is with AgMarket.net. 07:20 Bayer Requests Glyphosate Import Protections Todd Gleason: In today’s agricultural news, farm groups are pushing back against Bayer’s request for new duties on glyphosate imports from China, warning the move could raise costs for farmers already facing tight margins. Bayer has asked federal officials to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese glyphosate imports, arguing the products are being sold at artificially low prices that threaten the long-term viability of domestic production. Reuters said the request drew criticism from commodity organizations, including the National Corn Growers Association. 08:00 Scout for Corn Aphids Todd Gleason: We’ll stay with production agriculture and review something that we reported last week. Corn is entering its most vulnerable stages for the corn leaf aphid at this point. Though widespread problems are not expected, Nick Seiter, an Extension field crops entomologist at the University of Illinois, says while there have been no reports of corn leaf aphids yet this year in this state, farmers who have struggled with the pest recently should be actively scouting their fields. Nick Seiter: So I haven’t received any reports of corn leaf aphids in corn yet. However, they develop and reproduce most rapidly kind of during the late vegetative stages on into the early reproductive stages, tasseling in particular. And of course that’s where most of our corn is currently sitting in Illinois, and so if you’re someone that has been affected the last couple of years by corn leaf aphid, this is really the time that you should be out scouting. Todd Gleason: Fields planted later in the season face a higher risk as they are more likely to be tasseling when late-season aphid flights arrive. While the overall threat remains low across the grand scheme of field corn, yield reductions can be severe in those rare isolated cases. Producers are encouraged to monitor susceptible hybrids closely over the coming weeks. 09:12 Farm Bill Legislation May Attempt to Move Foreign Food Aid Todd Gleason: And finally today, who should run foreign food aid? The US Department of Agriculture or the State Department? According to Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman, USDA needs to lead foreign food aid programs. Boozman is hopeful to make the switch if he can pass a new farm bill. Most US farm food aid was transferred to the Department of State after President Donald Trump largely dismantled USAID last summer. USAID was the federal agency responsible for administering civilian foreign aid and international development. Now Senate Ag Chair Boozman wants Food for Peace and the McGovern-Dole program moved to USDA, but putting that switch in place is difficult. It needs the cooperation of other committees that oversee the State Department. John Boozman: We aren’t the committee of jurisdiction. We’re trying to get it moved into our committee, and always when you, you know, you have committees that lose jurisdiction, sometimes that, that’s a little bit of a problem. Todd Gleason: Senator John Boozman says Food for Peace and the McGovern-Dole were set up not just to help food hunger abroad, but to give US farmers additional markets and support prices. Boozman, who chairs the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, argues the farm bill is where that should happen. And that’s a look at today’s agricultural news. announce: The theme music for the Closing Market Report is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer, Tim Gleason. 10:54 Commodity Market Discussion with Ed Usset, University of Minnesota Todd Gleason: Ed Usset is now here, agricultural economist with the University of Minnesota Extension. Based on campus there. Hi, thanks much for being with us, Ed. Have an interesting day started as we get past the July 4th weekend. A lot of green on the screen, and not in a small way. What can you tell me about the marketplace today? Ed Usset: Well, it took me by surprise when I looked into it this morning. It’s good. I’ve been in the grain business a long time, Todd. I don’t know how you were trained in it, but years ago they would tell you, you know, July makes the corn crop, and really how the market moves after the 4th of July was always sort of a big thing. If it starts after the 4th, and that week after the 4th, if it starts heading down, it’s all over. If it starts heading up, you’ve got something to talk about. And here we are, at last I looked at new crop soybeans, I think they were up 45 cents, new crop corn up 15 cents. Of course, we have to remind ourselves, December corn made life-of-contract lows just last week. But I think we’re 20, 25 cents off those lows, we’re 70 cents off recent November soybean lows. It’s a good start. And here is what I would ask your listeners to think about: Do you have some old crop issues to clean up? I mean, did you forget to get around to a few bushels still in the bin? It’s nice to have a second chance, and take a hard look at that because these second chances are wonderful things, and here we are. Let’s hope it runs a bit. Todd Gleason: It goes along with your “thou shalt not carry old crop corn past July 1.” Ed Usset: Yes, and there are a lot of sinners out there, but the sinners occasionally do okay. And today they’re doing okay. Todd Gleason: So do you think this tells us really very much about what the rest of the summer is going to look like? Is it partially a bounce off of the contract lows still after the July 4 weekend and before the USDA WASDE report comes up, which will incorporate the new acreage numbers? Ed Usset: Yeah, I think it’s as simple as looking at the 10 to 14-day forecast and they’re talking somewhat drier, somewhat warmer in the growing areas where we’re trading weather. We’ve also got in the background incredible heat in France. Now, we don’t think about France a whole lot, but France is in fact a major corn and wheat producer in the European Union. I haven’t heard specifics on what they think about their crop. They’re the biggest player in the European Union, and they’re having heat problems. And we are in a world market, so if they’re having problems and we’re seeing warmer and drier out there, we’re going to move higher for a bit. Todd Gleason: And your scale-up seller into this for both old and new crop? Ed Usset: Yes, I’m looking for opportunities to clean if I didn’t get the old crop out of the bin. I’m looking for opportunities to get that done with this rally. If I didn’t get enough new crop priced back in May when things are kind of nice, and maybe early June, this again is a second chance. I hate to sound like a bear. I don’t like sounding like a bear, and this market is going to go where the weather takes it, and I’m not a weather forecaster. You know, it looks warmer and drier for a couple of weeks, but beyond that, who knows? I want to remind people, December corn is about $4.50 right now. 50 cents off its highs in May. Each of the last two years, new crop December contract has sunk below $4.00. Each of the last two years, November soybeans have found a way to get around $10.00 a bushel. And here we are at $11.90. I don’t want to be a bear, but if we can maintain some decent weather, get past this warm dry spell and return to normal, we’re going to be on the defensive again. Todd Gleason: Now I am known to be a bear, so I have this question for you, which is: Beans, historically speaking, would be high-priced even today with 700,000 more acres that are going to drop into the supply and demand tables on Friday, and corn would be at the midpoint at this point, and it just seems to me that the weather has been so good thus far that it would be very difficult at least this time to call this corn crop in trouble. Ed Usset: Oh, absolutely. And I’ve got a bad case of backyard-itis. The state of Minnesota in general is doing very, very well. Better than Iowa and Illinois according to crop ratings. The biggest issue we have is late last week, a few days ago, we had heavy, heavy rains in southeastern Minnesota and parts of Iowa. They’ve got standing water and, you know, flood watches in a few areas. So I’m having a hard time buying this crop is going to burn up and go away. Todd Gleason: Historically speaking, I believe the Great Flood of ’93 was really the only time that heavy waters—well, 2019, but that was planting—really caused a crop that was in the ground and growing to be an issue, correct? Ed Usset: Yes, and ’93 was more than just about water. It was too cool. They didn’t have enough growing degree days. And I don’t think that’s been an issue this year. Matter of fact, last week I’m hearing the radio expressing concern in Minnesota about 90-degree heat coming on and what it’ll do to the crop. And my thought at that time, Todd, was 80% of the farmers in Minnesota would wish for 90-degree heat because that’s how you grow corn! You’ve got the water and now give me 90-degree heat. Todd Gleason: Give us a little 90 just during pollination, don’t put it above 93 because that causes an issue, but we’ll be fine. All right, well thank you, I appreciate it. We’ll talk with you again in another month. Ed Usset: Okay Todd, take care. Todd Gleason: You too. That’s Ed Usset, agricultural economist with the University of Minnesota Extension. 18:04 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the weather forecast. Mark Russo is here, he is with EverStream Analytics. Hello Mark, thanks for being with us. Weather is playing a role, a big role today in the marketplace, or at least that’s what I believe to be happening. The market’s jumped. Is there a forecast that tells us that something will be drier and hotter in the United States? Mark Russo: Hello there Todd, thanks for having me. Well, looking out here over the next couple of weeks, for most of the Midwest, it does not look like any threatening heat or lack of rainfall. However, for the far western Midwest, in states like Kansas and Nebraska and South Dakota, basically more plains states, but obviously the eastern part of those states do have an abundance of corn, just not compared to Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. But coming up, for those areas, there will be some significant heat building in next week, with high temperatures climbing into the upper 90s and 100s, and any pollinating corn will certainly be stressed here within those states as a result of this very intense ridge of high pressure that is… it’s still going to be over the eastern Rockies, but it’s strong enough that it’s going to expand eastward and impact the plains region as well. At this time, we do not expect that heat to push eastward over the core of the Midwest. But in the core of the Midwest, and for much of the Midwest in general, the pattern is at least less active, and in a majority of acreage, we’ll see below-normal rainfall now for the next couple of weeks. Todd Gleason: So Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas, number three, number five, number six, depending on where Indiana lands in that lineup of corn producers in the United States. So important, but still Nebraska, that number three producer, is partially irrigated, so it’ll be interesting to see how that all turns out and what that means for the marketplace. The other thing I think that finally caught the attention of the market was issues in France. We’ve been talking about those for the better part of two months, but it must be turning, particularly for the summer crops, much worse than it has been? Mark Russo: It has been, and we’ve seen with some of the numbers, the crop conditions that have come out of countries like France, like these are the worst corn conditions that France has seen in the past 13 years. So already the heat and dryness has taken a toll on their corn crop as well as other summer crops. And there is more heat and dryness on the way, not only for France, but across much of Western Europe and even parts of Eastern Europe in general. And another, actually a third heat wave of the season so far will be building across Europe this week, and that begins to influence Eastern Europe next week, and along with that will be below-normal rainfall across much of the Western and Eastern major crop countries. France looks to still be the epicenter of the most extreme conditions, so things are going to continue to deteriorate there. But even for some of the other kind of larger corn and other summer crop producing countries in Eastern Europe, like Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, things will trend backwards there too, just not to the extent of what they’re seeing in France, which is basically a disaster. Todd Gleason: Indulge me for just a bit, how is corn harvest going in South America? Mark Russo: It’s going okay right now for second crop corn. It is running a little bit behind in the southern part of the belt, namely in around Paraná, where harvesting is just getting going. Things have trended wetter there of late and look to stay on the active side, which again, this is their winter dry season where it normally doesn’t rain very often, but they are seeing some anomalous rains across that area and keeping things on the slower side. In places like Paraná, further up north though in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest safrinha corn producing state, outside of a few very isolated rain showers, they’re mostly dry, so that’s where harvesting will be quite rapid here. It has been that way and should continue to be that way throughout much of this month. Todd Gleason: We’ll talk with you again next week, Mark. Thank you. Mark Russo: Sounds great. Thank you, Todd. Todd Gleason: You’re welcome. Mark Russo is with EverStream Analytics, joining us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report. That came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at willag.org. I’m University of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.