Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / BONUS EPISODE: Lucas Peters and Kyle Kracht on Cattle Insurance Opportunity
Transcript
- 0:02SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Cattle Talk Podcast.
- 0:06SPEAKER_00: Your weekly breakdown of cattle market fundamentals, key news, and the insights shaping the industry.
- 0:12SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
- 0:21SPEAKER_01: All right.
- 0:22SPEAKER_01: Good afternoon.
- 0:23SPEAKER_01: It is July 20th.
- 0:24SPEAKER_01: I've got Lucas Peters and Kyle Krock with us today.
- 0:27SPEAKER_01: What we're going to do is the point of this podcast is to give an update on coverage changes and updated strategies using LRP and LGM insurance products for cattle risk management.
- 0:37SPEAKER_01: So we're going to do a little bit of a deep dive today through you two.
- 0:41SPEAKER_01: So take it away, Lucas.
- 0:43SPEAKER_03: Yeah, you bet.
- 0:43SPEAKER_03: Thanks, Mike, for uh for having us into the Cattle Podcast Studios to talk a little LRP and LGM.
- 0:50SPEAKER_03: Uh the reason I guess we thought we'd hit on this topic is July 1st, we rolled to the new insurance year, right?
- 0:55SPEAKER_03: So um we're into the 2027 LRP and LGM insurance year.
- 1:01SPEAKER_03: And there's been a couple of changes that we want to make sure the customers know about, and kind of some of the changes are are have influenced our strategies on how we're using these products.
- 1:11SPEAKER_01: So actual action items.
- 1:14SPEAKER_03: Actual action items that uh that we're using uh today or talking about that uh could help our risk management plans for cattle.
- 1:23SPEAKER_01: Um so if you haven't used one of the two products or you didn't like them before, these could be some reasons why they may be applicable to you.
- 1:31SPEAKER_03: Potentially, uh, and also if you have been using them, that maybe here's a different way to use them or a reason why you should potentially use more of them.
- 1:40SPEAKER_03: So all right, let's get into it.
- 1:41SPEAKER_03: What we're gonna talk about, we're gonna talk about LGM, we're gonna talk about LRP, and this conversation, of course, is all around cattle, and we're gonna start uh just with a very uh brief uh intro or review of LRP and LGM.
- 1:57SPEAKER_03: LRP coverage, it's very simple, right?
- 1:59SPEAKER_03: You you buy a cover, uh a coverage price, it's available every single day.
- 2:05SPEAKER_03: It's subsidized about 35% at the top strike level, fits a lot of operation sizes.
- 2:11SPEAKER_03: There's no head minimums, there's there is maximums on LRP, but they're 25,000 ahead.
- 2:17SPEAKER_03: You don't have to pay your premium until two months after your coverage ends.
- 2:21SPEAKER_03: There's no margin calls, uh, lots of flexibility, kind of the pros on using uh LRP.
- 2:28SPEAKER_03: The cons, of course, are you locked in?
- 2:30SPEAKER_03: It's it's an insurance coverage, it's not a tradable position.
- 2:33SPEAKER_03: So the day you buy it, you are locked into that coverage.
- 2:36SPEAKER_03: There's no speculation with it.
- 2:38SPEAKER_03: And with today's cattle prices, the coverage is expensive, even though it is subsidized by 35%.
- 2:46SPEAKER_03: Um gotta go here.
- 2:49SPEAKER_03: There we go.
- 2:49SPEAKER_03: On LGM, just a quick review on that.
- 2:51SPEAKER_03: Again, a subsidized product.
- 2:53SPEAKER_03: Uh, no cap on the uh size of uh LGM, so we don't have that 25,000 head limit.
- 2:59SPEAKER_03: So we see LGM being utilized by some of the larger feed yards, only available on the Fed cattle.
- 3:05SPEAKER_03: Again, you pay at the end, there's no margin calls.
- 3:08SPEAKER_03: Uh, it is a a margin product, it's not a straight coverage price.
- 3:12SPEAKER_03: So there's a few more uh moving parts.
- 3:14SPEAKER_03: One key difference on the LGM is it's gonna settle using using uh live cattle futures uh versus the LRP that's gonna you the use the five-state area cash number.
- 3:26SPEAKER_03: Uh so that ability to just settle against futures we really like uh in certain situations.
- 3:32SPEAKER_03: Again, it's the cons.
- 3:33SPEAKER_03: It is an insurance product, so once you buy it, you're locked in, no speculation.
- 3:37SPEAKER_03: Uh, and there are some multiple moving parts with LGM, so it can be a little complicated to figure out where the payouts are happening at.
- 3:46SPEAKER_03: So let's start specifically on LGM, just review some of the changes.
- 3:51SPEAKER_03: Um, when the uh the contract renewed here, uh the RMA contract on the insurance policies renewed before July 1st, they released these changes.
- 4:01SPEAKER_03: Uh, a couple of the highlights is they're going to allow concurrent coverage between LRP and LGM on 2027 policies going forward.
- 4:11SPEAKER_03: And so, what that means in the past, like last year, we always had to worry about uh we couldn't have an LRP and an LGM have head that expired in the same month.
- 4:22SPEAKER_03: And on the cattle side, that was a real pain in the butt because we might have LRP on our feeder cattle and want to do some LGM on Fed cattle, but if we had those ending in the same month, we we were kicked out, we were locked out from doing that.
- 4:38SPEAKER_03: Didn't make a lot of sense, right?
- 4:40SPEAKER_03: We're insuring clearly separate cattle, clearly separate enterprises.
- 4:44SPEAKER_03: Uh luckily they've recognized that and they have changed that for 27.
- 4:48SPEAKER_03: So if we for 27 policies, we can have those ending in the same months.
- 4:53SPEAKER_03: Positive change there.
- 4:55SPEAKER_03: Uh, they also increased the weights, which I think is uh most of our producers, our cattle producers right now are taking their cattle a little heavier than they were two to three years ago.
- 5:05SPEAKER_03: Luckily, the insurance products are following suit.
- 5:08SPEAKER_03: So the LGM specifically on the calf finishing is allowing uh the ending weight on those live cattle to be 1,600 pounds on yearling finishing up to 1800 pounds.
- 5:19SPEAKER_03: Uh, there is a little quirk in there uh when we do an LGM coverage, we have to enter feeder cattle as well.
- 5:25SPEAKER_03: Uh that weight can't be more than a thousand pounds different from the fed cattle.
- 5:30SPEAKER_03: Basically, what that means, if I want to do a 1600-pound uh calf finishing LGM, my feeder cattle part of the equation has to be 600 pounds.
- 5:39SPEAKER_03: We take care of that for you, so you don't have to worry about that, but just wanted to call that out.
- 5:44SPEAKER_03: So, not a lot of major changes on the LGM uh specifically, uh, but some positive ones uh in the producer's favor, which I I guess I think we can all uh appreciate.
- 5:57SPEAKER_03: Uh one thing I did want to show here on the next slide is the uh um the cattle uh insured with LGM.
- 6:06SPEAKER_03: Uh so what we've seen uh from 25 to 26, the blue bar being 25, 26 is the orange bar, is there's a roughly a million head of fat cattle insured under LGM in 2026.
- 6:20SPEAKER_03: Okay, so uh a decent growth, you know, 10% growth over 2025, um, but still a million head when we're finishing.
- 6:31SPEAKER_03: What do we finish?
- 6:31SPEAKER_03: How many fat cattle do we finish a year, guys?
- 6:34SPEAKER_02: Be close to 30.
- 6:35SPEAKER_03: So 30 million uh head that uh that we're uh finishing, we're only ensuring a million in LGM.
- 6:42SPEAKER_03: There's lots of opportunities to utilize LGM, and the uh our producers can really take advantage of using LGM.
- 6:51SPEAKER_03: I think it's just a matter of education on where it works and how it works uh to get uh more utilization behind it.
- 6:58SPEAKER_03: And that's kind of what Kyle's gonna talk about here on our uh next slide with some LGM strategies.
- 7:04SPEAKER_02: Yeah, well, like Lucas mentioned, there's some changes this year that make this better for the cattle producers since we're making everything bigger.
- 7:13SPEAKER_02: The end weights are increased.
- 7:17SPEAKER_02: But looking at the strategies and uh it seems to be the best option for the lowest price of a floor or the the lowest cost for a floor.
- 7:29SPEAKER_02: And we're doing that for twenty-five to fifty bucks a head.
- 7:33SPEAKER_02: We can buy a floor that's about five dollars below where the futures are today.
- 7:37SPEAKER_02: So minimal cost, if there's a black swan event, there's protection there.
- 7:43SPEAKER_02: Or there's we can do it so we have a a large window.
- 7:47SPEAKER_02: We can still have that floor, spend that money, but sell some calls against things to cheapen them up.
- 7:54SPEAKER_02: And in doing so, we do have an upside or a ceiling that is going to stop us, but that's fifteen dollars above the market.
- 8:04SPEAKER_02: So a nice wide window with a good floor that we're not going to wreck the balance sheet over, but we do have upside as well.
- 8:13SPEAKER_02: And then we've also can create a synthetic short.
- 8:18SPEAKER_02: We can do the LGM and sell some calls that tighten that window up and and give us uh a little better selling price.
- 8:28SPEAKER_03: Appreciate that, Kyle.
- 8:29SPEAKER_03: A couple things I want to uh call out and and kind of stress what Kyle was talking about there.
- 8:34SPEAKER_03: First, on the lowest cost option, right?
- 8:36SPEAKER_03: So so LGM, we're utilizing the$70 deductible uh because that optimizes our subsidy at 50%, right?
- 8:45SPEAKER_03: So the government is discounting this coverage by 50%.
- 8:50SPEAKER_03: Um and the lowest that that really helps lower the cost, but especially when we compare that to a corresponding like put option mic, right?
- 9:00SPEAKER_03: On uh on the screen there, and I know you guys just listening aren't gonna see it, but every week we email out an LGM cattle quote, and we've been highlighting in yellow the opportunity per head.
- 9:12SPEAKER_03: That opportunity is essentially the money you're saving at a$70 per head L uh$70 per head deductible LGM coverage versus a corresponding put option.
- 9:26SPEAKER_03: So right now, if you're looking and say I have some open cattle uh in you know between November and January, you could go out to the board and buy a put option today, right, Mike?
- 9:37SPEAKER_03: But you could you could do an LGM and save upwards of 50 bucks a head, that's 50 bucks of opportunity uh that you're saving in premium cost by utilizing LGM.
- 9:51SPEAKER_03: Um, we think that's a real value, and as these margins get tighter because um, I mean feeder inventory is getting tighter, so we're paying more for for that as corn price creeps up here recently.
- 10:03SPEAKER_03: Uh, if you're looking to how can I grab 50 bucks a head, LGM is a really easy way to utilize in your operation, your risk management strategy to save that 50 bucks ahead.
- 10:16SPEAKER_03: And uh really think that's a good opportunity.
- 10:19SPEAKER_03: And the last part I wanted to comment on is you guys watch the market, the cattle market's kind of been going down here.
- 10:26SPEAKER_03: The recent last well, how long, Mike?
- 10:29SPEAKER_03: My cattle market's been going down for about a month, right?
- 10:32SPEAKER_03: Uh it's probably not an opportunity like like those big windows Kyle's talking about.
- 10:38SPEAKER_03: What a great time to do to utilize LGM, right?
- 10:41SPEAKER_03: So so if you are scared of man, I don't want to sell a call like with an LRP right above it because we've come down a long ways and especially the cattle market, as soon as it goes down, well then it wants to race back up, right?
- 10:53SPEAKER_03: Uh hopefully it does that.
- 10:55SPEAKER_03: Uh, but by utilizing LGM, we could get a floor put on to protect us from any further downside, but create a big window if we wanted to sell that call option on top uh without it getting the way right away.
- 11:07SPEAKER_03: So, a couple things I wanted to add in on there.
- 11:11SPEAKER_03: Uh the uh all right, so that's kind of our LGM discussion.
- 11:16SPEAKER_03: Um, wanted to jump ahead to LRP.
- 11:20SPEAKER_03: And LRP, not a lot of changes.
- 11:22SPEAKER_03: Uh, again, has that concurrent coverage LRP LGM?
- 11:26SPEAKER_03: We talked about that already.
- 11:27SPEAKER_03: They increased the weights on fed cattle LRP to 1800 pounds from 1600 pounds, again, recognizing uh producers taking them heavier, uh making them heavier.
- 11:38SPEAKER_03: Let's allow them to ensure them heavier.
- 11:40SPEAKER_03: Good change there.
- 11:41SPEAKER_03: Also on the on-borne bulls and heifers increased uh that coverage from six to nine hundred pounds if you wanted to uh insure some of those onborn calves, but you're going to sell them a little bit heavier rather than right off the cow in the fall.
- 11:55SPEAKER_03: Uh, so positive change there.
- 11:58SPEAKER_03: Um, but one thing we've seen, and this kind of ties in with that LGM discussion.
- 12:04SPEAKER_03: LRP fed cattle has been one of the or the most underutilized LRP coverages ever since they changed the subsidy in in 2020, right?
- 12:16SPEAKER_03: So the 2020 is when they increased the subsidy, and that's uh this insurance coverage uh kind of took off.
- 12:21SPEAKER_03: Fed cattle just have not followed suit.
- 12:24SPEAKER_03: And so they've tried to make a few uh tweaks to the program.
- 12:28SPEAKER_03: They did one in 2024, they re-rated it, they saw a little bit of a bump.
- 12:32SPEAKER_03: Um, but again, in 2024, 25, 26, very similar numbers of head insured, uh, you know, roughly one and a half million head, right?
- 12:42SPEAKER_03: So again, LGM's insuring a million head, LRP's insuring 1.5 million head.
- 12:49SPEAKER_03: We're still just scratching the surface of how many Fed cattle there are in the country of utilizing these insurance products.
- 12:58SPEAKER_03: What that does, it has pushed the RMA and and the product developer to try to determine what we can do to change the product to get more people to utilize it.
- 13:10SPEAKER_03: Okay, so pretty interesting things there.
- 13:13SPEAKER_03: And we've saw they changed the weights, but they also did something uh kind of a kind of interesting on the coverage side, Kyle.
- 13:20SPEAKER_03: What what did they what have we noticed on the changes there?
- 13:23SPEAKER_02: Yeah, well, it seems like one of the downfalls in the past with LRP has been you miss out on basis opportunity at times of the year when basis is strong.
- 13:35SPEAKER_02: Since it settles against the cash, that that opportunity wasn't there.
- 13:39SPEAKER_02: We're now today since the uh first of July and the new crop year started.
- 13:45unknown: Uh huh.
- 13:46SPEAKER_02: We're seeing opportunities to get a positive five to fourteen dollar basis in months from March through next July.
- 13:55SPEAKER_02: Uh-huh.
- 13:56SPEAKER_02: So great opportunities there to utilize this product that's maybe simpler if you're not wanting to get into the complexities of the LGM.
- 14:07SPEAKER_02: It it's just it's simpler and it locks that basis in.
- 14:10SPEAKER_02: You know what you're gonna get the day you do it.
- 14:13SPEAKER_02: So again, that's just uh a huge change, and I think it will boost the usage.
- 14:19SPEAKER_02: Yep.
- 14:19SPEAKER_03: So so interesting call out when we kind of compare it to some historical numbers.
- 14:24SPEAKER_03: You know, we have our our cattle basis history.
- 14:26SPEAKER_03: You've probably seen this if you've uh seen some of our cattle data come out or weekly uh market research update on there.
- 14:33SPEAKER_01: But find this chart very useful.
- 14:36SPEAKER_03: Yeah, so that this is is very useful to kind of get a five-year picture of where basis is for each half of the month, right?
- 14:44SPEAKER_03: So uh the one highlight there, first half of or first half of July, I think, uh positive 380, right?
- 14:52SPEAKER_03: So that's where it typically or five-year average has says it's been today's, based on Friday's information, is a little bit different, about ten dollars better than that.
- 15:02SPEAKER_03: And so that's we we've always known this, and when LRP wasn't accounting for it on Fed Cattle, LRP, we'd say, well, we probably shouldn't buy it this time of year, right?
- 15:13SPEAKER_03: It's it's uh the basis is gonna work against our LRP coverage.
- 15:17SPEAKER_03: What's interesting uh is they've they've changed the rating and the coverage uh on LRP Fed cattle, like like Kyle said, and we'll kind of show you quickly here what this means.
- 15:29SPEAKER_03: Um the uh I'm gonna try to get fancy uh with my laser pointer.
- 15:35SPEAKER_03: Um the so these first page here is showing October through February.
- 15:40SPEAKER_03: Now, if you kind of compare that to our historical uh chart here, that's kind of a a zero or potentially negative basis time of the year, right?
- 15:50SPEAKER_03: And so when we come to our quotes, uh let's look at a January 15th expiration here in the upper left on that 26th week.
- 15:58SPEAKER_03: This is based on Friday's close.
- 16:01SPEAKER_03: We have uh the February board is trading 221.53.
- 16:05SPEAKER_03: Our LRP top coverage price was 221.57.
- 16:09SPEAKER_03: So right at futures price, 100% coverage level.
- 16:12SPEAKER_03: That's the way it's been for quite a while.
- 16:16SPEAKER_03: What's interesting is when we go to this next set of months uh and go to that March-July time frame, and here's where you can see some pretty big differences.
- 16:27SPEAKER_03: Uh, you know, I'll call out that July just because we were looking at that.
- 16:31SPEAKER_03: Um, that July 16th uh LRP ending value.
- 16:35SPEAKER_03: Uh August board is two was 213.40 on Friday.
- 16:40SPEAKER_03: Uh the LRP offering Friday was 222.02.
- 16:44SPEAKER_03: Right.
- 16:45SPEAKER_03: So very uh very much over even the five-year average of that 380.
- 16:51SPEAKER_03: Um, pretty realistic to what's going on in today's market.
- 16:55SPEAKER_03: So uh very interesting that they got this aggressive uh with the re-rating system right away.
- 17:02SPEAKER_03: I know Kyle, you've mentioned a couple times on the May.
- 17:05SPEAKER_03: Um, what do you see in there?
- 17:07SPEAKER_02: Yeah, there's rough almost a$14 basis positive basis for May, which is is tremendous.
- 17:14SPEAKER_02: I mean, we look back on that chart and we're more like seven, eight dollar positive basis for May typically, but great opportunity, and that it seems like they're kind of comparing it to last year more than uh an average.
- 17:28SPEAKER_03: Yep.
- 17:28SPEAKER_03: So the my only call out on that would be um the uh um it seems like the they rated the product and they've changed it to increase uh participation, and I think they're gonna see that, right?
- 17:42SPEAKER_03: Because some of those numbers you just covered.
- 17:44SPEAKER_03: Uh and I we would encourage our producers to use it and utilize it, uh, take advantage of what's there because it feels like once they get some participation and maybe some payouts, then they could modify it back the other way.
- 17:57SPEAKER_03: Um generally things don't stay this good forever.
- 18:01SPEAKER_03: It's only been like six years.
- 18:03SPEAKER_03: Yeah, so it's so they finally changed it.
- 18:05SPEAKER_03: So now it's probably two years before they change it back.
- 18:08SPEAKER_03: But but let's uh it's a really awesome call out um that they put in place July 1st with this coverage change for those kind of late spring, early summer.
- 18:19SPEAKER_03: It will be really interesting to watch here for the next few months on that 52-week uh how long this continues.
- 18:26SPEAKER_03: Um interesting stuff there.
- 18:28SPEAKER_02: Yeah, because as we come into fall, we're gonna be into a time period where the basis is typically weaker and be interesting to see if they follow what this year does and how the basis does work out through the fall.
- 18:41SPEAKER_03: Yep.
- 18:42SPEAKER_03: All right, we're gonna wrap up on the feeder cattle.
- 18:44SPEAKER_03: Uh, feeder cattle have we just look a little history here.
- 18:47SPEAKER_03: Feeder cattle have been utilized or you using the LRP more than uh any other uh cattle uh coverage.
- 18:55SPEAKER_03: Um, you know, roughly six million head of feeder cattle every or 25 and 26 um that are using some form of LRP.
- 19:04SPEAKER_03: So pretty good participation, although we have roughly what 30, 32 million head of calves every year, so still a lot of guys not using it.
- 19:12SPEAKER_03: Um, but a uh not a lot of changes there.
- 19:16SPEAKER_03: Uh again, the on-borne weights is about it.
- 19:19SPEAKER_03: But what are some strategies we're looking at there, Kyle, uh, for the feeder cattle LRP?
- 19:23SPEAKER_02: Yeah, well, I just want to remind people that it's uh a very good product for the profit that we're looking at here or that's available on these calves.
- 19:35SPEAKER_02: Um when we look at the profit level of twelve hundred dollars, and maybe even more than that per animal, and we're spending seventy-five, eighty, maybe up to a hundred dollars, depending on how big the animal is.
- 19:48SPEAKER_02: It it seems like that's pretty reasonable, especially if you would compare it to your crop insurance.
- 19:53SPEAKER_02: I mean, you're spending twenty, twenty-five bucks to uh protect a break even.
- 19:58SPEAKER_02: Here we're we're protecting a big profit.
- 20:00SPEAKER_02: So it seems like at any uh level here it's it's a good product.
- 20:07SPEAKER_02: But it settles with the feeder cattle index and it so it works well with the options.
- 20:12SPEAKER_02: They expire at the we can get them to expire at the same time and make make a decision that helps us to cheapen up the cost and and uh yeah, not be as much out of pocket after the cattle are sold.
- 20:27SPEAKER_02: So it just those windows, yeah, they do create a top for us, but it's uh it's worth it in when it comes to the end and paying the premium.
- 20:37SPEAKER_03: Agreed.
- 20:38SPEAKER_03: And so you got a little information here, Kyle, on on kind of an example.
- 20:42SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so I just looked here at a six-weight steer with the LRP strike price at 321.
- 20:49SPEAKER_02: You know, that's not as many dollars as we would like to see on a six-weight animal, but we've adjusted with a slide calculator.
- 20:59SPEAKER_02: It's closer to twenty four hundred and fifty dollars a calf at what we're really produce are protecting.
- 21:06SPEAKER_02: So there's there's a lot of value there in in spending that.
- 21:10SPEAKER_02: And then we just showed uh if we sold uh some premium in the call in the calls that there would be forty dollars or so that we could collect there.
- 21:21SPEAKER_02: So cheapen that up a lot, and and some people talk about the premiums several years ago, how they were thirty, forty, fifty dollars ahead.
- 21:29SPEAKER_02: Well, we can get to that area without capping us ourselves at right at the market.
- 21:35SPEAKER_02: There's plenty of upside there too.
- 21:37SPEAKER_02: So lots of lots of reasons to protect these prices.
- 21:42SPEAKER_03: Yep.
- 21:43SPEAKER_03: So just kind of wrapping up here uh on on uh kind of our little discussion today.
- 21:49SPEAKER_03: I think we've kind of got the point across.
- 21:51SPEAKER_03: LRP LGM, awesome tools to be part of the cattle risk management plan.
- 21:56SPEAKER_03: Uh I would say on the fat cattle side, underutilized tools nationwide, right?
- 22:02SPEAKER_03: And and I think part of that is education.
- 22:05SPEAKER_03: Part of it is kind of this this topic of there's simple products, but there's some complex decisions involved, right?
- 22:12SPEAKER_03: It's um if you haven't figured out a way to get them, use these insurance products in your risk management plan, please give us a call here at ProEg.
- 22:20SPEAKER_03: There's some awesome opportunities.
- 22:21SPEAKER_03: There's some opportunities to save money, like the LGM.
- 22:24SPEAKER_03: We we think there's a pretty easy 50 bucks ahead of opportunity there uh that you can use in your favor.
- 22:32SPEAKER_03: And some of these changes on the basis history with LRP Fed Cattle, uh, I think we should be utilizing uh right now before before they uh start tweaking the program back the other way.
- 22:43SPEAKER_03: Um, so interesting things.
- 22:45SPEAKER_03: We're trying to watch everything from those margin opportunities, basis protection, LRP, LGM, what works best, uh, give us a call and we would be happy to discuss this even further with you.
- 22:57SPEAKER_01: All right.
- 22:58SPEAKER_01: And thank you everyone for tuning in today.
- 23:00SPEAKER_01: Please click the link on the description below to get our uh access to our website, get on our daily market commentary, other marketing info as well.
- 23:09SPEAKER_01: So please check us out.
- 23:10SPEAKER_01: Hit the subscribe button.
- 23:11SPEAKER_01: Thank you, Kyle.
- 23:12SPEAKER_01: Thank you, Lucas, for tuning in today.
- 23:14SPEAKER_01: Thank you.