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Inside the Analytics of the NCAA Tournament · A Quick Timeout

• 0:05
  SPEAKER_01: It's become almost a tradition around tournament time.
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_01: Jordan Sperber is a former college basketball coach.
• 0:11
  He's also the founder of Hoop Vision and co-founder with Ken
• 0:14
  Pomeroy of BeatBallAnalytics.com.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_01: Jordan, welcome back to the show.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for having me, Tony.
• 0:19
  I don't know how many times this is,
• 0:21
  but it is the first one in like a couple of years,
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  I'd say.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: So this is probably number three, four or five or something like that.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: you had a quote unquote real,
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if that,
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_01: what you do is real,
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  SPEAKER_01: but real job last year.
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  So we couldn't,
• 0:35
  you're a little busy during the,
• 0:37
  during this time of year.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm glad you're able to come on.
• 0:39
  your general impressions from week one were uh that's a good
• 0:43
  question i i was
• 0:44
  trying to write a newsletter today and i don't know if i'm
• 0:47
  going to end up writing
• 0:48
  it or not but one of the big stories of the season has been
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  there's a there's a few
• 0:53
  different ways of looking at it you could say um that bully
• 0:57
  ball is is really
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: popular right now among the elite teams like in arizona
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: Florida, who just lost, who I'll talk about in a little bit.
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  SPEAKER_00: But Michigan is playing with three bigs.
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  SPEAKER_00: You know,
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  a lot of the best teams in the country are using multiple bigs
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  and kind of erring
• 1:14
  away from like the five out that we saw four or five years ago
• 1:19
  get really popular.
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  I was trying to sort of figure out what the narrative of the
• 1:24
  tournament has been.
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  You know,
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  Florida was really the one of the main teams in that
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  tournament.
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  SPEAKER_00: using that bully ball.
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  SPEAKER_00: And what I mean by bully ball is
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  heavily reliant on offensive rebounds and also like using
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  duck-ins to create space
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  SPEAKER_00: as opposed to spacing the floor on the perimeter.
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  And it's a style that has been kind of popularized by Gonzaga
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  and Arizona with the
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  SPEAKER_00: Tommy Lloyd and the Mark Few coaching tree.
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  SPEAKER_00: And of course,
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  SPEAKER_00: Florida was one of the key teams doing it and they just lost to Iowa,
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  SPEAKER_00: which maybe we'll talk about that game and what happened there.
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  SPEAKER_00: But on the other hand,
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  you do have a bunch of high major teams that are shooting a ton
• 2:10
  of threes.
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  SPEAKER_00: Alabama is,
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  SPEAKER_00: I believe,
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  they're going to end the season with the most three-point
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  attempts for a high major
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  SPEAKER_00: ever,
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  SPEAKER_00: just as a percentage of their total shot attempts.
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  SPEAKER_00: Nebraska shoots more threes than twos,
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  SPEAKER_00: over 50% of their shot attempts are threes,
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  SPEAKER_00: and Illinois does as well.
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  SPEAKER_00: And those three teams are all still available.
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  SPEAKER_00: So you have these kind of divergent styles of play,
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  and that was kind of what was on my mind watching these tourney
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  games with all
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  SPEAKER_00: those teams except for Florida advancing.
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  Is the three bigs or just playing more than one big and putting
• 2:46
  more inside,
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  is that something that you see potentially changing or is that
• 2:52
  the luxury of being
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  SPEAKER_01: able to recruit guys like that?
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  yeah well todd golden i think it was a kevin sweeney article
• 3:00
  who writes for uh
• 3:01
  sports illustrated he talked about how playing that way kind of
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  floor now it's a
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  bit ironic and makes you less upset proof which is a bit ironic
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  because they just
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  SPEAKER_00: got upset yesterday
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  SPEAKER_00: But if you're less dependent on threes,
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  obviously three-pointers have been known to have a higher
• 3:19
  variability from game to
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  SPEAKER_00: game in your percentages.
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  I watched that Iowa-Florida game back about an hour ago from
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  when we were recording this.
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  SPEAKER_00: And Iowa had some two-point variance,
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  SPEAKER_00: I think,
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  which we usually don't talk about shots at the rim being lucky
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  or unlucky.
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  SPEAKER_00: But Florida had a lot of like wall up.
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  Everyone has a different name for them,
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  but vertical contests that Iowa just made against them.
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  SPEAKER_00: Like they are pretty well defended by big defenders.
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  SPEAKER_00: Chin Yalu is like one of the best defenders in the country this year.
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  SPEAKER_00: And in the first half, especially Iowa made about four or five layups.
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  SPEAKER_00: ish type shots, you know, going up against him.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so we always talk about three pointers being high variability.
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  Well,
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  you know,
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  two pointers you get can get lucky and unlucky on two pointers
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  as well.
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  SPEAKER_00: To go back to your question,
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  it definitely is a strategy that's a lot more replicable for
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  like the top teams in
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  SPEAKER_00: the sport.
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  SPEAKER_00: You know,
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  SPEAKER_00: like mid-majors,
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  SPEAKER_00: probably going to have trouble finding three bigs that are,
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  SPEAKER_00: first of all,
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  SPEAKER_00: big,
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  SPEAKER_00: but also skilled enough to work together.
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  SPEAKER_00: So it might only be applicable to the top of the sport,
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  SPEAKER_00: but it does seem like given how successful Michigan,
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: Arizona,
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  and et cetera have been this year that we're probably going to
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  see more of it.
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  SPEAKER_00: Miami,
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  SPEAKER_00: not Miami,
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  SPEAKER_00: Ohio,
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  SPEAKER_00: but Miami,
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  Florida was another team that had a really good year in year
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  one with Jay Lucas as
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  SPEAKER_00: the head coach playing two bigs.
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  It's not just at the top,
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  but it is high majors more so than mid-majors,
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  I'd say.
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  SPEAKER_01: And then you talked about the style of play,
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  SPEAKER_01: and you saw Alabama and Illinois,
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  SPEAKER_01: they almost turned their games into like track meets.
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  SPEAKER_01: Is that an effective strategy going forward?
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  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, you can win playing either way.
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  SPEAKER_00: Iowa is super slow.
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  I know they were last in the country in pace last year when Ben
• 5:14
  McComb was at Drake.
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  SPEAKER_00: I actually don't know where they are this year.
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  SPEAKER_00: Let me look.
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  SPEAKER_00: They're 363rd in average possession length in the country.
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  SPEAKER_00: So basically right there at the bottom.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I think it works for McCollum because he plays his best player,
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  SPEAKER_00: Bennett Sertz,
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  SPEAKER_00: like 40 minutes.
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  SPEAKER_00: And you probably can't do that if you're playing at a faster pace.
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  SPEAKER_00: You can win playing both ways.
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  Alabama for sure has been one of the fastest-paced teams in the
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  country throughout
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  SPEAKER_00: Nate Oates' tenure.
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  SPEAKER_00: and it's worked for them.
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  SPEAKER_00: They have had some not very good defensive teams.
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  SPEAKER_00: They've had a couple of really good defensive teams,
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  SPEAKER_00: but they have generally been an offense over defense type of team.
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  Illinois,
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  I think,
• 5:55
  actually slowed down a little bit as the year progressed.
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  SPEAKER_00: They were playing fast early on, and they slowed down.
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  SPEAKER_00: They still take a lot of threes, but they're very matchup heavy.
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  SPEAKER_00: I guess you could call it an NBA style of trying to get switches and
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  SPEAKER_00: And get the right matchup if a team is going to give up those switches.
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  SPEAKER_00: And then,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: they've been known for like booty ball,
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  SPEAKER_00: which is what Brad Underwood calls it,
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  SPEAKER_00: backing players down,
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  SPEAKER_00: whether it's a guard or a big.
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  So they shoot a lot of threes,
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  but there is a little bit of a difference there.
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  SPEAKER_00: And then you have Nebraska who shoots a lot of threes.
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  SPEAKER_00: Their big thing is like off-ball screening.
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  SPEAKER_00: more than those two teams.
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  SPEAKER_00: There's three teams left that do a lot of off-ball screening.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's UConn with all their extensive set plays with off-ball screening.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's Nebraska and I'm missing the third one.
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  SPEAKER_00: Tennessee does a lot of motion type stuff as well.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's those three teams.
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  SPEAKER_00: Um, so there's, there is a variety in these things.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_00: I guess I went a little bit away from your question,
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  SPEAKER_00: but as far as the pace of play is concerned,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: you can win playing both for sure.
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  Is there any kind of data that shows whether it's from
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  tournament to regular season
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  SPEAKER_01: or maybe even from week to week,
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  SPEAKER_01: the higher level competition that you get,
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  SPEAKER_01: i.e.
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  SPEAKER_01: better teams, but does the pace change at all?
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  Well,
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  in the NBA,
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  there's definitely the thought that like in the,
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  in the playoff series,
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  um,
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  the pace slows down and your half court offense becomes a lot
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  more important.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I think that's probably the case in college basketball.
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  SPEAKER_00: I think over the course of the season,
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  SPEAKER_00: pace drops,
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  it starts out pretty fast paced and that could have something
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  to do with there
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  SPEAKER_00: being a lot of blowouts early in the year with,
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  guarantee games or buy games so yeah I think I think that
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  sometimes people over
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  estimate just how much the game changes from the regular season
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  to the NCAA
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  tournament I you know I've worked for three different programs
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  and it's like yes
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  you you can't you quote unquote scout or care more about the
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  game plan in the NCAA
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  SPEAKER_00: tournament but to be honest our scouting was
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  very extensive for the bye game against the 350th best team in
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  the country as well.
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  The games are spread out enough that you just have a lot of
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  time to scout in season.
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  The only time would be if you play in an MTE where you're
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  playing like three games
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  SPEAKER_00: in three days or something like that.
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  SPEAKER_00: That might differ a little bit.
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  So I tend to think that there's not as big of a difference
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  between the tournament
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  SPEAKER_00: and the regular season.
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  SPEAKER_00: But as you're playing better teams and more elite teams,
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  one thing that I've written about in the past is that as you
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  advance in the
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  SPEAKER_00: tournament,
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  SPEAKER_00: generally speaking,
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  SPEAKER_00: teams rely on mid-range jumpers more.
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  And that's because they're playing better defenses that are
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  better at taking away
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  SPEAKER_00: the efficient shots.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so you end up with more mid-range jumpers.
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  So that's an example of of like things potentially changing
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  slightly given who
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  SPEAKER_00: you're playing against.
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  SPEAKER_01: We kind of turn this into the old is new again.
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  And I think specifically of Rick Pitino when I hear not
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  necessarily caring about
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  SPEAKER_01: what is new or what.
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  what teams are doing now but you see him um using the pressure
• 9:18
  defense in this full
• 9:19
  court pressure defense that strategy in your opinion going
• 9:23
  forward and how it works
• 9:25
  for them yeah well i'll get to that an interesting tangent off
• 9:30
  of rick patino is he
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  said in a press conference this weekend that he told his team
• 9:35
  which they're not a
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  SPEAKER_00: very good three-point shooting team
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  But that that three point shooting was going to be the key to
• 9:40
  like their tournament
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  SPEAKER_00: or their two games.
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  SPEAKER_00: And Bryce Hopkins made like five or six threes in the game.
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  SPEAKER_00: And he's a 31 percent three point shooter.
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  SPEAKER_00: I think it is.
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  And so he I mean,
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  he actually Patino has traditionally he was early on the three
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  point line.
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  SPEAKER_00: That's a little bit before my time, but I think he was one of the.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: One of the coaches utilizing it before other coaches were.
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  But in recent years,
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  that hasn't necessarily been the case with his teams.
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  SPEAKER_00: So I found that interview interesting,
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_00: given that his teams have struggled to shoot,
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  that he placed an emphasis on it against Kansas and their first
• 10:16
  round game.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_00: To get back to your question, which, oh, about the press.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_00: I've done some research on this in the past.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_00: Generally speaking,
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  SPEAKER_00: the aggressive defensive coaches,
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: the pressure defensive coaches,
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: whether it's pressing or half court pressure defenses,
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: like Brad Underwood was when he got to Illinois,
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_00: he wasn't necessarily a press defense coach,
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_00: but he was an on the line,
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_00: up the line coach in the half court.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: And Shaka Smart would be another example of a press coach.
• 10:46
  Those guys have generally gotten much less aggressive when they
• 10:50
  move up a level.
• 10:51
  Brad Underwood changed completely where his team is like as
• 10:55
  pack line as it gets at this point.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: So that's generally been the trend.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: Now, you know, Bucky McMillan is definitely changing that with Texas A&M.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if their turnover numbers were amazing this year,
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: but they certainly pressed regularly.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, he had a good team, but not a great roster.
• 11:15
  And it'll be interesting to see what he how how he continues to
• 11:20
  play when he has
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_00: better rosters than what he has for Patino.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: That game was ugly.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: The Kansas St.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: John's game was super.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_00: It had an exciting finish, but it was a really ugly game.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: And the press might have had something to do with that.
• 11:35
  I think he's arguably the best defensive coach of all time,
• 11:40
  I guess you could say.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_00: So it's hard to argue with anything that he's doing.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: But it's interesting,
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_00: the Underwood thing,
• 11:48
  he's really reinvented himself from what he did at the
• 11:52
  mid-major level with his
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_00: spread offense,
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: what he called the spread offense.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_00: And now he doesn't really do any of that at Illinois.
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• 12:50
  SPEAKER_01: Let me shift to this week's games,
• 12:52
  looking at weekend one to weekend two and even weekend two to
• 12:56
  weekend three.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_01: But the coaching staffs typically have about 72 hours to prepare.
• 13:02
  And then you have travel and everything that goes into getting
• 13:04
  to the next spot.
• 13:05
  Is there a team that you consider to be maybe the hardest to
• 13:09
  prepare for that a
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_01: team might struggle with this coming week?
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_00: That's a great question.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: theoretically,
• 13:17
  you'd think that the teams that run the most sets would be
• 13:20
  tough on the shorter
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_00: prep.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_00: And I think Purdue would be the team that you would bring up there.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_00: I've heard,
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if it was their coaches or some former players,
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: that their playbook is like 200 deep about that.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_00: And they also name their sets like football plays.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: I know Matt Painter has talked about that a lot.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: So if you want to cover all those plays with limited time on the court,
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_00: that's going to be difficult.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: Now,
• 13:45
  I think you can kind of categorize a lot of their sets into
• 13:49
  different categories
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: and make it a little bit easier on yourself.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: Nebraska, interestingly, is...
• 13:57
  According to the advanced stats,
• 13:59
  like on Kempom,
• 14:00
  they have the worst offense in the field.
• 14:02
  Their defense is very good,
• 14:04
  but they're ranked 52nd in offensive efficiency.
• 14:08
  And I actually think that they would be a pretty tough team to
• 14:11
  prepare for on short
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_00: notice just because they're a lot different.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_00: I mentioned off-ball screening action.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_00: They run a lot of five-out stuff,
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_00: and their best player,
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_00: Price Samfort,
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_00: just gets a lot of screens.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think that would be...
• 14:25
  something that you'd really have to prepare for and you would
• 14:27
  want to get on the
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: court as much as possible.
• 14:29
  This time of year,
• 14:30
  a lot of work is done in hotel ballrooms and in the film room.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_00: And then, of course, there's Iowa State's defense.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: You're not just preparing for offense.
• 14:42
  I think most coaches probably devote more time in their
• 14:45
  scouting to a team's
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_00: offense than their defense.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: But you're playing against a Houston or an Iowa State that –
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_00: puts two on the ball a lot,
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_00: double teams in the post,
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: and has a lot of pressure defensively,
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: those are pretty hard to prepare for as well.
• 15:01
  Going back to Nebraska,
• 15:02
  that's one of the games I'm looking forward to most in Iowa.
• 15:06
  Can you talk about Hoiberg and McCollum and anything
• 15:10
  stylistically or anything that
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_01: might impact that game?
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_00: Well, they played each other already twice this year, I know.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: I'd be curious to go back and watch those and get a better feel.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_00: I haven't done that.
• 15:23
  With Iowa,
• 15:24
  they run a lot of ball screens for Bennett Sturtz,
• 15:27
  a lot of different actions.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: When I watch Iowa,
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_00: I've never seen a team that,
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_00: there's different terms for it,
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: but twists or changes the angles of ball screens so much.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_00: It's their default.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: By default, they're
• 15:43
  They run out on the left side and then they twist it to the
• 15:45
  right side and make
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: your coverage a little bit late.
• 15:49
  On the other hand,
• 15:50
  Nebraska does not set a lot of ball screens whatsoever.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: Price Sanford, as I mentioned, is their leading scorer.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: He does a lot of off-ball work.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_00: They have a couple bigs,
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_00: actually,
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_00: that can be five-out hubs on the perimeter to play through them.
• 16:07
  That will definitely be an interesting matchup given that the
• 16:10
  teams have such
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: familiarity with each other.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I'm definitely looking forward to it.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_00: You don't normally get the conference matchups in the Sweet 16 like that.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_01: We talked about St.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_01: John's before, and St.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_01: John's-Duke is one that probably most people picked.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_01: As an upset, I'm hearing St.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_01: John's is bigger.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_01: They're more physical.
• 16:32
  There were times multiple times through the year that I thought
• 16:36
  that Duke's going
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_01: to get beaten this one,
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_01: Michigan,
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_01: Florida,
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_01: and then they end up either winning or winning,
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_01: winning big.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_01: Which way do you swing?
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I like Duke.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_00: They're not completely healthy.
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_00: Pat Gongba, I think I'm saying that right, did play in their last game.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_00: So that was a big key for them to get him back.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_00: I think Caleb Foster is still out for them.
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_00: So it is definitely an interesting matchup.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_00: I would generally just lean towards Duke.
• 17:06
  taking camp not betting against cam boozer for the most as as
• 17:10
  uh as much as you
• 17:12
  could get into the the scheme side of things um that that press
• 17:16
  could give duke or
• 17:17
  the pressure could give duke a little bit of trouble but
• 17:19
  they've got plenty of ball
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_00: handlers and yeah i would lean towards duke in that matchup personally
• 17:25
  The Michigan-Alabama game feels like one that could finish in
• 17:29
  the 90s or maybe even break 100.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_01: You do have Michigan's defense, which looked great against St.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_01: Louis and potentially built to stop or slow down a team like Alabama.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_01: I did watch quite a bit of Alabama this year.
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_01: There were certain games that I watched,
• 17:43
  and it just blew my mind the kinds of shots that they were
• 17:46
  taking and not making.
• 17:48
  And then there were games where they took those shots,
• 17:50
  and they did make them.
• 17:51
  I'll ask you later about the shooting and how that travels and
• 17:54
  translates from week to week.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_01: But how do you feel like this is going?
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I've been pretty high on Michigan all year.
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_00: I did a video on their defense.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_00: They forced the longest twos of any team in the country.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, Alabama doesn't take long twos.
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_00: So that's an interesting little subplot there.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_00: A very important thing is
• 18:17
  um when playing against michigan is if you can kind of stretch
• 18:21
  out their five man a
• 18:22
  diamara who's one of the best shot blockers in the country they
• 18:25
  play him mainly in
• 18:27
  drop coverage when given the opportunity to sag him into the
• 18:32
  paint and protect the
• 18:33
  basket that's one of the biggest reasons why they give up long
• 18:36
  twos is because they
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_00: have a seven three guy with a
• 18:39
  SPEAKER_00: Ginormous wingspan clogging up the paint.
• 18:42
  Alabama does have some shooting or maybe more than some
• 18:46
  shooting at the five.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_00: Aiden Shirell will shoot the three some.
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_00: I think Taylor Bull Bowen shoots the three.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, their whole team shoots the three.
• 18:56
  So being able to stretch him would be a big advantage when
• 19:02
  playing against Michigan's defense.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_00: But that being said,
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_00: just because Michigan plays defense or their rotations a certain way,
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_00: they're pretty adaptable as well.
• 19:14
  So they don't have to play the three bigs all together at the
• 19:17
  same time if it's not
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_00: the best for that matchup.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_00: And I think they have some adaptability there.
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_00: That would be the reason why I would expect them to win against Alabama.
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_01: So asking you about the shooting and the sustainability of that.
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we even saw teams like Michigan State, Iowa State, Shotwell.
• 19:35
  Is there any kind of metric that you look at to determine
• 19:37
  whether or not that's sustainable?
• 19:39
  Or is that something where you kind of expect that the mean is
• 19:43
  going to even things out?
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_00: generally speaking,
• 19:46
  SPEAKER_00: with a big enough sample size,
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_00: you would expect reversion to the mean.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_00: An interesting study that Ken Pomeroy did years ago was he looked at,
• 19:56
  SPEAKER_00: at halftime,
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_00: what stats predict which team is going to win the game.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_00: And he found that teams that shoot poorly from three in the first half,
• 20:06
  if you're shooting poorly from three and the game is still
• 20:08
  close or even you have a
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_00: lead—
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_00: You win.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_00: You're more likely to win in the second half.
• 20:13
  So that kind of speaks to your point about it not necessarily
• 20:16
  being the fact that
• 20:17
  you're in a slump isn't very predictive in the second half that
• 20:21
  you're going to
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_00: continue to be in a slump.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_00: It's more random than that.
• 20:25
  And I think you could probably apply that to a game by game by
• 20:28
  game level as well
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_00: as a half by half level.
• 20:31
  there's even been i can't think of the exact games off the top
• 20:34
  of my head right now
• 20:35
  but there were a couple of games over the weekend where a team
• 20:38
  was in a close game
• 20:40
  but they were shooting poorly from three and then they ended up
• 20:43
  having a good
• 20:44
  second half shooting them you know exactly what that study was
• 20:47
  about yeah so a lot
• 20:49
  of small sample shooting is not predictive of future shooting
• 20:54
  if that makes sense
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_01: So at the end of this weekend, we have our four.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_01: Any predictions of who you think those four would be?
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, I did fill out a bracket.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't do any money brackets this year.
• 21:05
  SPEAKER_00: I just filled one out for fun.
• 21:07
  I find that if there's money involved,
• 21:11
  then it can somewhat ruin the viewing experience.
• 21:14
  You end up rooting for your bracket more so than rooting for
• 21:17
  upsets or just for good basketball.
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_00: So I just filled one out for fun.
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_00: All four are still alive.
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_00: I had three big 12 teams, not...
• 21:30
  I didn't realize I was as high in the Big 12 as I was until I
• 21:34
  filled out the bracket.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_00: But I had Arizona, Houston, and Iowa State all in there.
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_00: And I guess that leaves Duke as the fourth team that I had there.
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_00: Those are my four.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_00: And I actually had Iowa State winning the whole thing.
• 21:51
  Now,
• 21:52
  if Joshua Jefferson is at – he missed their two games,
• 21:56
  and I think they'll –
• 21:57
  I wouldn't make that pick knowing that he got injured early on
• 22:02
  in their first game,
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_00: but that was what I thought of pre-tournament,
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_00: so I'll stick with those four teams even despite that injury.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_01: You mentioned them,
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_01: and I was going to ask you something about them,
• 22:12
  but the old defense wins championships and seeing Houston again
• 22:17
  potentially in the
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_01: Final Four.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_01: Not necessarily having somebody offensively that stands out for them,
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_01: but the rebounding aspect of it and then the defensive side of it.
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I was sitting in the arena last year when they beat Duke.
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_01: They won because of their defense.
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_01: But is this the same kind of Houston team,
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_01: maybe either that he's had in the past or even that he had last year?
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, there's one big difference, I'd say.
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_00: It's Kingston Flemings, who's a lottery pick, and...
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_00: is really, really good at creating his own shot.
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_00: He loves, he Houston takes a lot of mid range jumpers and floaters.
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_00: They did last year.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_00: They do this year.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_00: They kind of get away with it because their,
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_00: their effective field goal percentage is not normally good.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_00: Their shooting is not normally good,
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_00: but,
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_00: but the rebounding,
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: the offensive rebounding helps them get away with it.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_00: And,
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_00: and usually they're low turnover like Kingston Fleming's,
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_00: his shot selection probably could be improved,
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_00: but,
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_00: he doesn't turn the ball over and they get rebounds off of misses.
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_00: So it's like, you know, keep shooting.
• 23:16
  He's he,
• 23:16
  and he's really good at that two dribble pull up or,
• 23:19
  or whatever the case may be.
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_00: I think their defense is, is a little bit worse than last year, actually.
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 23:27
  I kept kind of expecting them to get better over the course of
• 23:30
  the season,
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_00: given that they're a little bit younger with some freshmen,
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_00: the defense still isn't quite what it has been in years past,
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_00: which is,
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, they've been like number one in the country almost every year.
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm not saying it's bad.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, let's see.
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_00: They play Illinois.
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_00: So that should be a really good game there.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_00: Definitely a little bit of a clash of styles.
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_00: But both are really good offensive rebounding teams.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_00: Illinois has been really good offensive rebounding.
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_00: So that'll be interesting.
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_01: Before I let you go, talk about bballanalytics.com.
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know that enough people know about it yet.
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_00: So yeah,
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_00: back in,
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_00: I think it was October,
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_00: Ken Pomeroy and I,
• 24:09
  SPEAKER_00: so the guy behind KenPom.com,
• 24:13
  SPEAKER_00: we created an online course that is self-paced.
• 24:18
  SPEAKER_00: So everything's pre-recorded.
• 24:19
  You take the course at your own speed and it's with the
• 24:23
  intended target market of
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_00: coaches of all different levels.
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_00: So we've had a bunch of division one coaches and college coaches sign up.
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_00: We've also had aspiring coaches
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_00: maybe they're, you know, college age kids.
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_00: We've had high school coaches and grassroots coaches.
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_00: And a cool part has been, I did track this at one point.
• 24:43
  SPEAKER_00: I think we've had about 15 different countries,
• 24:47
  SPEAKER_00: 15 different countries take the course so far,
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_00: people from different countries.
• 24:51
  So obviously a lot of like FIBA or international type coaches
• 24:54
  have been taking it.
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_00: And it,
• 24:57
  The course is 12 modules and it takes you kind of step by step
• 25:00
  through basketball
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_00: analytics,
• 25:02
  not from the perspective of someone who's looking to learn how
• 25:06
  to computer code or
• 25:07
  computer program and and like jump into spreadsheets and crunch
• 25:12
  all the numbers.
• 25:12
  But from a coach who is looking to actionably learn how to
• 25:17
  implement some of this
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_00: stuff within their team,
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_00: their program,
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_00: whatever the case may be.
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_00: You mentioned the site is bballanalytics.com.
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_00: We were able to get that URL, bballanalytics.com.
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_00: And right before this pod, I created a discount code.
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_00: So if anyone's listening, you can use code Tony.
• 25:38
  SPEAKER_00: So for your name, Tony, code Tony gets you 15% off the course.
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_00: And yeah, we've had really good feedback.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_00: We took a lot of care in...
• 25:51
  um in determining the curriculum you can you can uh look at all
• 25:55
  the modules the
• 25:56
  titles of all the modules but i i guess to just go through a
• 25:59
  couple there's like
• 26:00
  there's a module just on shot selection there's a module just
• 26:04
  on in-game decision
• 26:05
  making so like fouling up three and all that kind of stuff when
• 26:10
  to foul end of game
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_00: situations and
• 26:12
  There's all different modules like that that are highly
• 26:15
  actionable for coaches.
• 26:17
  And yeah,
• 26:18
  we'd love for you to go to bballanalytics.com and take a look
• 26:22
  at it.
• 26:23
  I will be sure to link that below and make sure that I have the
• 26:25
  code down there,
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_01: but that's awesome stuff.
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_01: And I hope more coaches check that out.
• 26:29
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you so much for doing this.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_01: Awesome to have you back and always a lot of fun talking with you.
• 26:34
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 26:34
  SPEAKER_00: Till next time.
• 26:35
  SPEAKER_00: Till next.