Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Shakeout Rally vs Uncertainty Crypto Market Update

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Shakeout Rally vs Uncertainty Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Let's get into it today. Market uncertainty. Is this a rally?
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Can you trust it today? We'll break it down for you.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: My name is Paul Barrow. Welcome back into the show.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Let's get started. I do want to thank our sponsor
• 0:09
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• 0:34
  Speaker 1: your own self custody journey. Let's go over to the headlines,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: and of course, this is what's happening this week. We've
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: got the S and P Global Services, the PMI data
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: coming in today. We also have the ISM This is
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: non manufacturing PMI data. This comes on Tuesday, ten year
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: note auction on Wednesday, jobless claims data on Thursday, which
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure I'm going to trust that because of
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: whatever thing has been going on.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: We'll talk about that.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Total of five SPED FED speaker events this week, and
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: then also twenty percent of the S and P five
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: hundred are going to be able to report earnings, So
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: that'll give us some indication of how it's been going
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: around the economy and just in general, because I think
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: a lot of people are worried about what inflation is
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: going to be doing over the next few months, and
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: also whether or not the FED is going to cut rates.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: One of the biggest things that was happening last week
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: and over the weekend.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: You can't make this up.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Trump literally just fired the person who revised the job
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: report numbers down by two hundred and fifty eight thousand,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: and he's questioning whether or not the July numbers are real.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Calling the seventy three thousand numbers is shock only to
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: conclude that pal should be gone. Point being here, guys
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: that you probably know my position on this. I've never
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: trusted these job numbers. They're always revised, and it doesn't
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: matter if it's Trump's administration, the Biden administration, all of them.
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: I don't trust them.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Because I talked to so many CEOs, and they always
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: tell me the alternate of what's happening. I've mentioned this
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: so many times on the channel is that these numbers
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: are always much worse than what we're seeing. So the
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: real question is how does this affect the market. I
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: put out a tweet this weekend, seventy three thousand jobs
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: at IT in July, huge bad side revisions in May
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: and June. Jimath kind of called it. This is a
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: very severe job decline. And when you have these kinds
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: of jobs declining in a market that is already under pressure,
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: unlikely that we may out of mean getting real inflation data.
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: It's possible that we could.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: See a one hundred basis points cut coming in September.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: So things have really flipped around.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Just because I think the job's data was so bad
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: and so inaccurate that now everybody's starting to question that
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: very issue. I want to go to a clip real quick,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: because this is talking about the BLS commissioner and should
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: they have gotten fired.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: The BLS commissioner has no say over what the numbers are,
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: has no opportunity ever to alter the numbers. Grossing as
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: part of a broad group of economists roundly criticizing the
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: president's assertion that the numbers were quote rigged for political reasons.
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: Friends of BLS issued a statement saying, quote this action
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: for firing doctor mcintarfer is without merit and undermines the
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: intelligent economic decision making by businesses, families, and policymakers. Is
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: anybody shocked that the president would react this way? Everybody
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: out there understands the way he amstand I am.
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: I'm sure good.
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: You're about the only guy in America because the markets
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: is shocked. It's shocking. It is shocking. Rick.
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: You know you're too touchy feeling. You know what I
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: care about. I care about markets.
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: My concern, Rick, is you fire somebody because you don't
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: like the numbers. How much trust will the people have
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: in the numbers when the next person is appointed and
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: in charge unless there's a big change.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Oh, let me tell you something, CNBC. I don't think
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: that Americans have trust in the numbers to start with.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: So the fact that we already have a broken system
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: that's reporting these inaccuracies probably goes to the point that
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: all these commissioners and all these bureaucrafts.
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: Should be looked at.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Why are they not fixing a system that's reporting inaccurate data.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: If you continue to get inaccurate data, why would you
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: not go to the source and start to revamp that.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: That's the problem that is out there. President Trump announced
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: the new FED governor. Will be announcing the new FED
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: governor and also a BLS chief this week. I don't
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: necessarily agree with the fact that Trump is going to
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: use his you know, apprentice model of your fired and
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: just flip around and get the next person in there,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: because they're probably going to report bad data too, Because
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: I think the system itself is the problem, and this
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: is a factor that's going to be going for quite
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: some time.
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: Guys.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: The good thing is is that you, as business owners
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: and investors, just ask around, ask and see what's happening
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: in your own community. Usually you can tell where the
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: market is leaning without a lot of this you know,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: secondary speak that seems to be coming from these major outlets.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: We also have a clip here that kind of shows
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: into whether or not Trump even had the right to
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: do this.
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: First of all, it is very very difficult cult to
• 5:01
  Speaker 5: tamper or to interfere with these numbers. As has been
• 5:05
  Speaker 5: mentioned before, hundreds of people have their hands on these
• 5:09
  Speaker 5: numbers as they are being formulated from the state level
• 5:12
  Speaker 5: up and the Monday before the Friday of the first
• 5:14
  Speaker 5: Friday of the month that these numbers are released, the
• 5:18
  Speaker 5: process is very much locked down. BLS is very concerned
• 5:22
  Speaker 5: about the security of these numbers. So only about forty people,
• 5:27
  Speaker 5: but forty is still a lot toward the end in
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: the last week that deal with these numbers. If anything
• 5:33
  Speaker 5: were to be awry, I think one of these forty
• 5:35
  Speaker 5: people in the final analysis would have spoken up. So
• 5:38
  Speaker 5: it's highly unlikely, and given how much of the BLS
• 5:42
  Speaker 5: looks toward the integrity of these numbers, that these numbers
• 5:45
  Speaker 5: are not right. Having said that, I will say the
• 5:48
  Speaker 5: President does have the right to appoint and replace whoever
• 5:51
  Speaker 5: he wants to, because this is the commissioner of the
• 5:54
  Speaker 5: BLS is a political appointee. I hope that the new person,
• 5:59
  Speaker 5: whoever is will be will be someone who respects the
• 6:04
  Speaker 5: integrity and the reputation of the institution.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Well, let's hope, so, I mean the integrity and reputation
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: of the institution so far over the past several years
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: has been inaccurate. So hopefully they'll get in there and
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: try to figure out what's wrong. This is, of course,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: as Elizabeth Warren, she's taking it on the other side
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: and simply saying, hey, this is all on the Republicans.
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 6:25
  Speaker 4: Give data that makes the president happy. That's certainly the
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: message he's communicating. And when that happens, who believes the
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: data at a month from now, let's just say good
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: data come out. How many people have to discount that
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: data and saying, oh, not really, even if it's bad data,
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: how many people say, I wonder how much worse it
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: might have been? Lord, doesn't do.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: You have any expectation that something that you and the
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Congress can do about it?
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: We have Republicans in theory they could stand up to him,
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: But I say, in theory, it's the most finalist bunch
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: of people I've ever seen. This woman who served his
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: served under Democrats and Republicans. Shoot Marco Rubio jd Vance
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: voted for confirmed. Where are those Republicans about the business community?
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: All right?
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: So the I think the key here, guys is just
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: continue to understand whether or not we see what's interesting
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: because you've got warrant here. Not really worried that the
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: data is accurate. More important about how the data is
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: compiled and delivered to the president. And I think the
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: key here is is more about how do we fix
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: the problems that have been out there that apparently have
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: been resident for some time that I think is what's
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: causing a little bit of the uncertainty in the market.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I want to go to another clip here because this
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: will get into Kathy Wood reinforcing that very topic.
• 7:42
  Speaker 6: Take a look this chart is depicts economic policy uncertainty.
• 7:48
  Speaker 6: You can see here that the uncertainty, especially during tariff turmoil,
• 7:53
  Speaker 6: reached unprecedented levels, so much higher than eighth nine. I
• 7:58
  Speaker 6: was kind of shocked by that, and higher than COVID.
• 8:02
  Speaker 6: It has improved, are beginning to adjust to the drama
• 8:06
  Speaker 6: around tariffs, but you can see very recently, as depicted
• 8:10
  Speaker 6: by the X, there's been a little bit of a backup,
• 8:14
  Speaker 6: as I mentioned before, as we come to the end
• 8:16
  Speaker 6: of tariff turmoil and perhaps have to deal with some
• 8:21
  Speaker 6: saber rattling on the geopolitical front and some concerns on
• 8:25
  Speaker 6: the fed front. Many of those will resolve in the
• 8:29
  Speaker 6: months ahead, all.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: Right, concerns on the FED front.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Still thinks that maybe this has peaked, there could be
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: still some unusual situations ahead of us, especially with the
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Trump administration, who has been very, very unpredictable. The other
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: thing that you have to kind of consider things that
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: I think are maybe not so unpredictable.
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: And I'm coming to.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: The realization that maybe inflation is going to be affected
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: in a longer term, part in part by tariffs, but
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: also I think it's in part by data now that
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: appears to be maybe already inaccurate. And I think this
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: is something that we have to pay attention to because
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: it's going to have an effect on what we'll see
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: in the risk markets. Here's linn Alden talking about that
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: very point.
• 9:10
  Speaker 7: Take a look, there's a lot of uncertainty. You know,
• 9:14
  Speaker 7: estimated forward tariff phrase are pretty similar to what they
• 9:17
  Speaker 7: were back in April before the de escalation, and yet
• 9:20
  Speaker 7: the market is at all time highs, credit spreads and
• 9:22
  Speaker 7: narrow there's really little concern there's more risk from tariffs
• 9:26
  Speaker 7: than is probably being priced in UH and so there's
• 9:29
  Speaker 7: really there's not much sign that foreign exporters are absorbing
• 9:34
  Speaker 7: the cost because the importers pulled in a lot of
• 9:37
  Speaker 7: products ahead of time that gave them some buffer before
• 9:40
  Speaker 7: they have to really kind of pass on costs to consumers.
• 9:43
  Speaker 7: I do think that'll increase and trickle out to consumer prices,
• 9:47
  Speaker 7: all right.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: So what Lynn hit on a couple of things there
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: is that her belief is that we are going to
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: continue to see more rise in inflation in general, maybe
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: in the fact that some of these manufacturers and retailers
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: are front loaded, which has caused a little bit of
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: the inflation already. My point is is that if you
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: look at the restaurant industry highly connected to that, I've
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: seen it and talked to a lot of CEOs in
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: that space, most of which took price. When they raise prices,
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: they take price, and they've done it over the last
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: eighteen months. The problem that they're getting into now is
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: the declining traffic, the declining sales. They cannot raise prices now.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: With declining sales continue to impede on that. At some
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: point they will be forced to and they'll have to
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: deal with that. Or at some point you're going to
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: start seeing closures, which is more job loss. So this
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: is a very double edged sword that we're leaning into
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: right Now the question is how does this all affect
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: the markets. If you look at the stock market in general,
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: this is a potential for warry for twenty twenty five.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: And if you look at this in August, second term presidency,
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: most of the time this has been down and it's
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: very possible we can see that happening again this month.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Pending again all on what is leaning into what will
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: happen with the FED, because that is most likely going
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: to be the biggest factor. If you look at where
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: the risk markets have been every cycle after August, having
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: for bitcoin has delivered big returns twenty thirteen, seventeen twenty one,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: you can kind of see the numbers right there, and
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: we had a having in twenty twenty four, So it's
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: very possible we could be right on the verge of
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: another big return month for bitcoin. And if we see
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: all time highs coming faster in risk markets, then it
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: starts to really open up some very interesting things. Another
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: factor here is the EU. They are now starting to
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: reconsider the planned US tariffs and this is going to
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: be around six months to allow for trade talks to continue.
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: I thought the deal was done. As usual.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Trump is a very fluid negotiator, and it's a scenario
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: where it doesn't seem like we have a deal with
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: anyone until we have a deal. I guess we have
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: a deal kind of thing. But this is all starting
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: to affect the markets. However, with that being said, here's
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Tom Ly talking about whether or not we can see
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: all time highs.
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: Take a look last week.
• 12:01
  Speaker 8: The market's definitely retrenched. You know you've been solidly bullished
• 12:06
  Speaker 8: since you know, Liberation Day, but last week was this
• 12:10
  Speaker 8: set back. In August is not always a great month.
• 12:13
  Speaker 8: You think we get a little bit of choppiness. Here
• 12:15
  Speaker 8: are you still bullish?
• 12:17
  Speaker 9: Well, last week was definitely consolidation because we had five
• 12:20
  Speaker 9: days where the market opened higher and closed lower. And
• 12:23
  Speaker 9: they call that bearish and golfing. It makes sense because
• 12:26
  Speaker 9: we're consolidating that twenty eight percent gain from the April
• 12:29
  Speaker 9: lows and on the job stuff. I think it's just
• 12:33
  Speaker 9: the data is catching up to what we already know.
• 12:35
  Speaker 9: The labor market's been soft, right, So it's I think
• 12:39
  Speaker 9: a positive setup because now the Fed has more ammunition
• 12:43
  Speaker 9: to make a dubvish pivot in the fall, and it's
• 12:47
  Speaker 9: not too late because we know the thing that they're
• 12:49
  Speaker 9: going to stimulate is the housing market. And you had
• 12:52
  Speaker 9: a couple guests earlier talking about that, and so that
• 12:54
  Speaker 9: is what strengthens the economy in twenty twenty six. So
• 12:58
  Speaker 9: I think it's quite a positive set up. We're just
• 13:00
  Speaker 9: consolidating and then we make a bigger move higher by.
• 13:03
  Speaker 8: The end of the year or what target are you
• 13:05
  Speaker 8: using now and what timeframe?
• 13:07
  Speaker 9: I think we're going to rally pretty strongly in August,
• 13:11
  Speaker 9: So I think, yeah, I think we can get back
• 13:12
  Speaker 9: to sixty five or get to sixty five, sixty six
• 13:15
  Speaker 9: hundred all time highs this in the next couple of weeks.
• 13:18
  Speaker 8: And then seven thousand in the next twelve months.
• 13:21
  Speaker 9: Above that, yeah, probably well above that, next well above that. Yeah.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: All right, So again the bear up, I should say,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: the hyper bull out there, and that of course is
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Tom Lee. A couple of points he hit on there
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: to be very cognizant of. If we do see lower
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: rates coming, he is correct, that's going to affect the
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: job market, or excuse me, the real estate market, which
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: will affect the job market. We'll see more construction that
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: all flows down into the economy. Does it mean that
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: we end up seeing more jobs kind of stabilize. It
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: is very possible that that could happen if you believe
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: in that model. The key here is the timing in
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: which that has to occur, and the other factors is
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: how global economics continue to pressure on the market, so
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: be aware of that. Here's Tom Lee talking about BM
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: and R, which is the eth treasure company that he
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: is a chair on, and he explains a little bit
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: about how Wall Street might be waking up to it.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 14:12
  Speaker 9: But today we announced that we reached almost three billion
• 14:15
  Speaker 9: dollars worth of eth and.
• 14:18
  Speaker 8: The largest eth over then, Yeah.
• 14:21
  Speaker 9: The largest youth treasury in the world, and the third
• 14:23
  Speaker 9: largest crypto treasury in the world. And we also announced
• 14:27
  Speaker 9: that Bill Miller the third made a major investment last
• 14:30
  Speaker 9: week into Bitmind, so he joins Kathy Woods in investing
• 14:33
  Speaker 9: in our company in the past couple of weeks.
• 14:34
  Speaker 8: Which you're simple, It is Bitlin.
• 14:36
  Speaker 9: It's ticker b M and ARM and the stock now
• 14:40
  Speaker 9: is around thirty two so in the past four four
• 14:43
  Speaker 9: dollars and fifty cents.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it. It's the NBC scrambling there. What's
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: that tigger? What's that tigger? It's just intriguing to me.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: To watch the architecture of Wall Street playing out in
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: front of us. Here is his tweet on the milestone
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: for bitmin again back to eight hundred thirty three thousand
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: man holding eight hundred and thirty three thousand ethereum right now.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: At the price and where it is and the potential
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: for that, I mean, this could be a ten billion
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: dollar company in a very fast form.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: And that's if they don't even invest.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's just continuing to hold, and likelihood is
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: they're going to continue to push hard. Look at how
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: fast this thing is growing on the charts if you
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: compared that to the dat size overall compared. And that's
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: of course micro strategy right there, strategy in their particular
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: growth track. So maybe BEM and R on the move.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: Let's take a look at bitcoin in general. I want
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: to show the bitcoin eh chart real quick. This was
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: the reversal that we saw over the weekend, so big
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: move there. Eth also rebounded quickly and is now trading
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: well above thirty seven right now on Monday, in and
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: out of that key here to watch those guys, I
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: think is going to be the dominance if this reverses
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: and holds back down to this point right here, around
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: sixty percent. Then maybe this could be the recovery that
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: starts to get us into all coin season. All that
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: still up in the air, so be aware of that.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Last couple of things I want to hit on right here.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: Sharplink also hit on this the inflection point for Ethereum.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: It's no longer an experiment. Everybody's on top of this,
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: so be on the lookout right now. I think ETH
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: continues its mass adoption. If you're not part of the
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: Diamond Circle, get in on that. It's our own private
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: group where you guys can join absolutely free, and of
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: course follow me on x at Paul Baron. I'll catch
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: you next time right here on the Paul Baron Show.