Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | Cold as Ice | NHL Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/29/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | Cold as Ice | NHL Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/29/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: your chicks. The black coffee on the felt man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mist three teen Parlette turned the dust
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips.
• 0:31
  Speaker 3: Like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name, steal me something on somebody for show?
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: Put the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 4: Now, hold on, hold on nothing nice not now, hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 4: hold on me.
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: But it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 5: Now, what's up? Everybody?
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: It's sewed back with you with Toadstool Sports for Friday.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: May went on one on the show yesterday with the
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: over in Anaheim and Detroit. I was right about some
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: of the other things. Had the NBA game very correct?
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: I think I think I was right about most things
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: with that, especially my strongest opinion on that Oklahoma City
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: team total under that was an easy one. If anybody
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: played that, that should have been the play man should
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: have done something differently. The Detroit tie, they just can't
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: hit at all. Gracea Rodriguez, you know, I mean he's
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: getting better. Sure, I'm not surprised that he was the
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: better of the two pitchers in the game. Really, but
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: I thought both teams are gonna put up enough runs.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: That did not happen. There was like never a chance
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: for that game to go over. If it did, we
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: would have gotten lucky. I mean, Anaheim scored two extra
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: runs in the eighth inning and in the ninth inning.
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: I think if I was watching that correctly, I wasn't
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: really watching it.
• 2:26
  Speaker 5: I was watching the score. A very boring game.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: We move on to today. I'm gonna have two baseball
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: totals today.
• 2:33
  Speaker 5: That's what I got.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: I don't love this baseball board. I feel out of
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: sorts here. I mean, I did most of this handicapping
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: last night, so I'm trying to remember what I even
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: saw or like how I was seeing these things last night.
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: I woke up and I'm like, wait a minute, what
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: were my thoughts on these games? I don't know, man,
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: Just like yesterday, though, the first two games on the board,
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: or on the schedule at least, are gonna be the
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: games that I've plays, and I believe that's what I have.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: So you're gonna get both plays right away here, and yeah,
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: that's it. There's a hockey game. There's some w NBA,
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: but I don't particularly like it. All right, let's get
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: into it. We have you know, I'm having to use
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: this whatever, this is player props AI whatever. It's the
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: only place I can ye betting splits.
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: Now. Pregame still has not fixed any of their shit.
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: Wager talk I think uses Odds Logic for their data,
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: which is a premium service, but they were using like
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: the free version of the data that doesn't like update
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: in real time or whatever, which was definitely still really helpful.
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: But there's this like down right now.
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know what is going on with them having
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: some issues so unfortunate. I want some tool back, man,
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: I would like pregames to come back, because I that
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: was the one that helped me out the most.
• 3:55
  Speaker 6: Man.
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: Maybe, I mean, I've been considering buying Odds Logic. I mean,
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: I'm not beg paid to advertise for them or anything,
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: but I know that it is a good tool, I believe.
• 4:05
  Speaker 5: I don't remember.
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: I think I did a free trial of it way
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: back in the day, not too long ago, but whatever,
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Their product is pretty good though, all right,
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: but it's like one hundred a month, all right. First
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: game up is Atlanta Cincinnati. I'm gonna give out a
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: play on this game. This game, we're gonna go over
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: the total here nine and a half. I know I
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: can't find the nine out there. I know nine is
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: a key number, as I always point out, because baseball,
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: if there's a tie, you got to break the tie.
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: So there needs to be a ninth run if there's
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: a four to four score. So nine is key. But
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: we need this to go over nine and a half
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: for this But I think it can happen. We're looking
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: at Cincinnati. It's a hitter friendly ballpark. And well, yes,
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: I know Cincinnati was off yesterday. I know that were
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: turning home from a road trip, but it was only
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: a single series road trip to the So I don't
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: really think that it's that bad a spot for Cincinnati here.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: Usually the longer road trips make that spot way worse
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: when you return home because you get distracted. Whatever, And
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: do you really think Cincinnati is going to be distracted
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: playing the Braves, who I think might have the best
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: record in all of baseball. Probably they're not going to
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: be distracted. Probably they will have to show up for
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: a game against the Braves. But we don't need Cincinnati
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: to win here. That's not what we're trying to do.
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: We need runs hit or friendly ballpark. I think the
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup is conducive to this. And I know the
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: Braves have a good bullpen. I get that, but they
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: did use some of their bullpen yesterday, which, oh, I
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: think my bullpen what happened to my bullpen window or sorry,
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: my bullpend tab? I think I have it in another window.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Hold on whatever, I could just bring it back up,
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: But here you go. Braves used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: Obviously Cincinnati was off. Braves do have the number one bullpen,
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: but and I know they wanted to blow out against
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox. Yes today, the Red Sox bullpen has
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: started imploding.
• 6:06
  Speaker 5: So I don't know.
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: It wasn't really Peyton Toley's fault in that game. You're like,
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: you'll look at the final score and think that he
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: did bad. That wasn't the case. The Red Sox bullpen
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: was very bad in that game. Cincinnati's bullpen is really
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: bad though, so Cincinnati does have a bullpen disadvantage here
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: for sure.
• 6:22
  Speaker 5: The ranked twenty eighth Braves ranked first.
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: But again, we're wanting this game to go over and
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: I think with the combination of the starting pitching plus
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: one bad bullpen here, I think that can get us
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: to this over here. Hitting wise, the Braves, that's going
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: to factory to this too. The Braves hit really well
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: on the road. They're one of the best road offenses,
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: and they're also number one in hitting. Oh no, they're
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: number three in hitting right now, my mistake.
• 6:50
  Speaker 5: Pretty close. It was somewhat close.
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they're behind the Yankees and the Dodgers, but they're
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: a good hitting team.
• 6:56
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati has started hitting well again too.
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: They're at thirteenth, So we have two offenses that are
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: doing pretty well for the most part recently. So I
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: like that. Grant Holmes is pitching for Atlanta. He's been
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: decent three point seven to eighty ray, but his whip
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: kind of tells you there's something going a little bit
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: wrong here.
• 7:15
  Speaker 5: One point three whip.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: He's been better on the road this year, and I
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: know he's on the road here three point six to
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: three road Ray, but he was way worse on the
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: road than at home last year, and that was in
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: a bigger sample size. So I still think that Holmes
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: is fadable in road games. I know he is pitching
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: fairly well right now. Over his last couple of starts.
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: He had ten strikeouts in his last outing. He's in
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: good form right now for the most part, but he
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: does still have ten walks in twenty innings this month,
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: and that is not great. Over the course of the season,
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate is below one per inning. Hit rate
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: is also well below one per inning. That's pretty good,
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: but his walk rate is high, almost won every two winnings,
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: so that's not good. He walks too many guys. And
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: then the clincher here is that he is not good
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: against Cincinnati. In thirty six at bats, they have a
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: three eighty nine batting average against him twelve ninety seven
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: ops nine to three strikeout walk ratio is fine, but
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: they do also have five home runs against him, although
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: only two. Only two of their hitters are factoring into that,
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: Freedo and Suarez. But whatever Holmes does, not a good
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers here. And Chris Paddock is pitching for the Reds. Yeah,
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's trustworthy. He's got a six point
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: eight six ERA one point six y seven whip. He's
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: been awful at home twelve point seven twelve point six
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: to seven home y ra but remember most of that
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: was with Miami. He's only made one start with Cincinnati
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: so far, since Cincinnati picked him up after Miami cut him.
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: But I still don't think that's good because Miami is
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: a more pitcher friendly park than Cincinnati is, so like,
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: how could he really turn this around that much? He
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: actually didn't pitch too badly in his first game against
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis.
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: His first game with Cincinnati.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: Which was against Saint Louis, he gave up three runs,
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: five innings, seven hits, but he had three walks that's
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: not good and five strikeouts, so it wasn't all good there.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: Plus I feel like he was kind of pumped up
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: to prove himself for his new team. I think this
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: might be a different situation. Man, he's going up against
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: the Braves now here. He did pitch against the Braves
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: while he was with Miami. He wasn't awful in that start,
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: but he was very inefficient with his pitches. Didn't finish
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: five innings there. It was on the road and Atlanta actually,
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: like I just said, they actually don't hit as well
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: at home. I think they hit better on the road,
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: which is pretty rare and Chris Paddock does not. He
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: has below one strike out per inning. He has way
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: more than one hit per inning. That's a huge problem.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: And then his walk rate is kind of mediocre as well.
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: But he's been way too hit able against the Braves.
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: I think you know what's coming. He doesn't have good
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: numbers against the Braves really, in ninety four at bats
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: two fifty five batting average a lot, isn't that bad?
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: Eight four ops not good? So we're gonna fade both
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: starting pitchers here. Over is where we're going here. We
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: look at this screen here, because I'm using this player
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: props thing, it looks like the over is getting the
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: money here forty three percent of tickets, sixty two percent
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the over, So nineteen percent difference there,
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: nineteen percentage points, I should say, for what it's worth,
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: it looks like there is a little bit of money
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: on the braves here as well. They're somewhere on the
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: minus one fifty range here, eighty two percent of the tickets,
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: ninety percent of the cash. According to the books that
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: this site tracks here, which I think is basically just
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: the primary online books, and I don't love that as
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: much because the sharp like offshore books don't get factored
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: into this thing. But still you can kind of gauge
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: what's going on here. I wouldn't really disagree with the
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: Braves side. However, the Braves played yesterday, so they are
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a rest disadvantage.
• 10:57
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati does have the rest edge, but I mean.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: Holmes is clearly better than the Paddock. Atlanta has the
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: better bullpen, Atlanta has the better offense, and they're seemingly
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: not even that heavy of a favor. Although maybe you
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: could argue it looks too easy to play Atlanta too,
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: But again, we're not gonna try to play the side there.
• 11:14
  Speaker 5: All right?
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: Over is the call there? The next game on Apple TV,
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: Minnesota and Pittsburgh. Yeah, two teams that are unfamiliar, unfamiliar
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: with each other, so it's an interleague game. And what
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: do I do in those? A lot of times I
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: go with some sort of under, and that's what I'm
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: gonna do here. I'm gonna go under four in the
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: first five innings here. I don't like the bullpen, so
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna discount the bullpens. Both teams actually played yesterday,
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: so I know that means the hitters don't have time
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: to cool off. I like playing unders when teams have
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: a day off because the bullpen's are rested and then
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: the hitting could cool off a little bit. But we're
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: gonna take the bullpens out here. Both bullpens stink pretty much,
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: especially Minnesota, so I'm gonna take them out. Minnesota use
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: five lead pitchers yesterday, Pittsburgh used three, so we're taking
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: them out of the equation here. Minnesota's got the twenty
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: sixth rank bullpen, Pittsburgh twentieth. Let's not deal with them.
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: Both teams do hit fairly well, Pirates of seventh, Minnesota sixteenth,
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: so kind of mediocre there. But I think the pitching
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: can actually get us there in this game. And I
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: think both these pitchers are just gonna be They're gonna
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: fly completely under the radar here. Man. Nobody's gonna look
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: at this game and be like, oh, this looks like
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: an under. But because I know who these pitchers are,
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: I'm looking at it and I'm like, that sounds like
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: an under to me, at least early in this game.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: Tadj Bradley is pitching for Minnesota. He was injured for
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: a little bit not too long ago, but he's been fine.
• 12:43
  Speaker 5: Since he came back. He's been good this season. Man.
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: He didn't really start taking off in his career when
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: he was with Tampa, but he showed signs like I
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: kind of liked like some of his numbers, like it
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: looked like he had good stuff. And he's having a
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: good year his first year with Minnesota. He's got a
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: two point seven to seven ERA, one point one seven whip.
• 13:04
  Speaker 5: He's slightly worse on the road. I know, three point
• 13:07
  Speaker 5: zero three ERA, and Pittsburgh does hit really well at home.
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: I get that, but I think we can still get
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: there with this one. Bradley, he's pitched pretty well since
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: he came back from injury. It was actually only one start.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: It was at against the Red Sox. I know they're
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: not a good offense here, but Red Sox have been
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: hitting better though recently. So that was Bradley faced the
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: Red Sox when they were starting to come into better
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: form and he did hold them to one run in
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: five innings and didn't pitch, didn't throw that many pitches.
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: So I think they're like ramping him back up a little bit.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: But he's been pretty good this season.
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: He's got more than one strikeout per Rainning by quite
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: a bit. His walk rates not that bad, and his
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: hit rate is also low, so I kind of like
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: what we're seeing here.
• 13:49
  Speaker 5: His numbers against Pittsburgh are not gonna look good.
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: He's a lot of three hundred average seven sixty four ohps,
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: but only two of their hitters have ever faced him before. Literally,
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: only Horwitz has any hits off him, and Ozuna has
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: a walk, but Horwitz is three for six with a double.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: Other than that, nobody in this Pittsburgh lineup has a
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: hit off of Bradley. That's because nobody besides those two
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: guys has ever even faced him. So I think Bradley
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: does have an unfamiliarity at year when I talk about this,
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: when hitters have to figure out a pitcher for the
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: first time, it takes them a little while.
• 14:22
  Speaker 5: Sometimes they could struggle through.
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: The first couple of at bats, and that's what we're
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: looking for here. So I like Bradley here and Jared Jones,
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: this pitcher for Pittsburgh. This is a name I haven't
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: heard for quite a while because he got injured in
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: spring training last year and missed the entire season. And
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four I talked about him on the
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: Show back in twenty twenty four, and I liked him.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: He was pretty good. He had a four point one
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: four ERA in his rookie season with Pittsburgh that year
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: when he was twenty two years old, but he had
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: a one point one to nine whips, so his whip
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: was good.
• 14:56
  Speaker 5: He had over one strikeout per inning.
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: He was solid, dude. His walk rate wasn't really that
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: bad either, so a lot to like there, and his
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: hit rate wasn't high either, So I think Jones is
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: actually good. I think he's the real deal. He's been
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: going through his rehab. You know, he's ready to go.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: Because the Pirates are putting him back out there. This
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: is gonna be an interesting up pitching rotation. Man. If
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: he rejoins and he's doing anything near what he was
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: doing in twenty twenty four, he's definitely gonna improve this
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: Pirate's pitching staff. Dude. Maybe this Pirates team will make
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: the playoffs. Maybe I'm wrong, Yeah, but I like Jones.
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: I liked what we saw him two years ago. I
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: looked at his minor league rehab stuff, and they gave
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: him like one starting single A, one starting double A,
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: and once starting triple A. And he wasn't that good
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: in the triple A start, but I'm not that concerned
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: about that. I think he's ready to go. We've seeing
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: what he's done in the majors in the past. He's
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: already proven he could pitch at this level. It's just
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: a matter of is he gonna be able to come
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: back from this injury. And if they're putting him out there,
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: that's the coaches, you know, whatever the team's saying he's
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: ready to go. So I think he is. I'm gonna
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: go with that, and he's going up against the Minnesota team.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: It's not very familiar with him. They only have eight
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: at bats against him. Across three of their hitters. Only
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: Larnock has a hit off him, a single, so they
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: have no extra base hits, three strikeouts, and no walks.
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: The rest of the lineup has never faced it before,
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: saying that's an extra advantage to him as well. Under
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: first five is where I'm going with this. Min Minnesota
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: and Pittsburgh. The money seems like it's slightly indicating towards
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: the under. We have fifty to fifty on the tickets,
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: fifty six percent of the cash on the under, so
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: that is where I'm going with that one. And for
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: what it's worth, Pittsburgh is a favorite at around minus
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: one forty or so here and the money looks like
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: it's fading Pittsburgh, though, sixty three percent of the tickets
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: are on them because they've been hot, dude. They even
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: though they lost to the Cubs yesterday with Skeens on
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: the mound. Skeens only gave up one earned run in
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: that game, so it wasn't exactly his fault. Fifty four
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets on Minnesota there, so the money's hitting Minnesota.
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know whether I like that or not as
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: far as the under, because I don't even know which
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: one of these pictures is considered to be like the
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: less I guess Jones, I guess is the less established,
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if I really love that, But
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: either way, I like the under in this one. Man,
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: When I saw that Jones was coming back, I'm like,
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: I don't know, Maybe I'm just getting a little bit
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: excited for Jones to come back. I don't know, because
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: I liked him two years ago. Gave out some some
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: winners involving him that year, So I don't know. But
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: that's the other play. Everything else is just gonna be
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: my opinions on the rest of these games.
• 17:42
  Speaker 5: San Diego at Washington.
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: Washington is returning home from a road trip, and you
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: know right away that means I kind of want to
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: look to fade that team. They went to Atlanta and Cleveland.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: Not really that bad, but still they've been away for
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: more than a week. You come home a lot of times,
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: you get distracted. You have to get back to home life.
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: I don't think Washington's a particularly good team. They're pitching
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: tends to be really bad at home, and they're facing
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: San Diego, but maybe that will focus them a little
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: bit because San Diego's doing a pretty good team here.
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: San Diego just got swept by Philly though, at home,
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: so I think it might be good for them to
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: just start a road trip. They were off yesterday. Both
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: these teams are off yesterday, I'm pretty sure. So there's
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: no rest advantage here. Disadvantage san Diego is having to
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: travel to the Eastern time zone, but I think that's
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: easier to do than going from East to West for
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: a late night game. I think this should be fine
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: San Diego. It'll be like playing an afternoon game basically,
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: on the Pacific Coast, and that happens all the time
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: in baseball, So I think San Diego should be fine,
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: But that looks like it could be bounced back time
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: after they scored only three runs in an entire series
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: against Philly. But San Diego's pitching was still good in
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: that series, and they're pitching is indeed good. San Diego
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: is fifth in a bullpen based on whip, their era
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: is one of the best eras though they're good for sure.
• 19:05
  Speaker 5: Philly has been Wait.
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: We're not talking about Philly, who are we talking about Washington. Yeah,
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: their bullpen's bad. Washington twenty fourth and bullpen hitting wise,
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: Washington has been way better. They're fourth and San Diego's
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: twenty ninth. But maybe they'll be able to hit some
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: at Washington, where again, Washington gives up a ton of
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: runs at home. Lucas Gilido is getting the start for
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: the Padres. He's been pretty good so far, sort of.
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: Two point seventy RA does look good, but a one
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: point three whip is a little high. Kind of tells
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: you he's putting some guys on base here. His road
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: start was worse than his home start. His road start
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: was at a Pitcher Friendly Park in Seattle as well,
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: and he didn't really pitch well in that one. He
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: did one hit them through five innings, though, but he
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: gave up three on runs. His walk number wasn't good,
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: and that's really been the problem with him. He came
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: back home and he shut out the A's, So these
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: numbers kind of look good. He's been really hard to
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: hit five hits of our ten innings, but he's walked
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: eight guys and only struck out five. I mean, you
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: can't continue with a ratio like that and continue to
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: pitch that successfully man, so that walk great worries. I mean,
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: I'd be willing to give him a pass for that
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: first out in because you know, he was coming back
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: into the majors, you know, because the Red Sox cut him,
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: I believe at the end of last year and he
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: had not found a home yet. I mean, he's good
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: enough to pitch in the majors.
• 20:28
  Speaker 5: I'll give you that a lot.
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: I thought that he over performed with the Red Sox,
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: like the advanced analytics guys were telling you, like this
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: Gelito guy, you know, isn't as good as his numbers. Look,
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: what did his numbers look like against Washington. Well, they're
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: pretty good in sixteen at bats. I know it's a
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: small sample, one hundred and eighty one eighty eight batting
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: average allowed, four sixty five ops three, two strike out
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, So Geolito might actually pitch fine.
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: Here.
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: Paxton Schultz is getting the draw for the Nationals, and
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: I'm like, well why because he's a leaf pitcher, so
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: you got to figure out why are they doing that.
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: His numbers also are not good. Five point three are
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: a one point four or five whip. A lot of
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: that is because he had a third of an inning
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: two outings ago where you gave up six earned runs
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: to the Mets. That's almost unbelievable. That's not good. But
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: that outing is skewing his numbers completely because his other
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: outings this season we're not that bad. But he's only
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: gonna give you an opener here. So Washington's going with
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: a bulp end game and their bullpen's bad. They're pitching
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: is bad at home, and the only reason they're doing
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: this is because Jake Irvin has heard I'm pretty sure
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: it was Jake Irvin's turn in the rotation, because what
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: I do when I see something like this is I
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: go back what happened five games ago?
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: Who is their pitcher? Why is he not pitching?
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: Now?
• 21:45
  Speaker 5: You know that type of thing.
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: So Jake Irvin is injured and it looks like Washington's
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: going with a bullpend game. I do not think that's
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: a good idea as far as they're concerned. I would
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: I think I would leave San Diego here, man, I
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: mean it's a return home spot for Washington. I don't
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: know if I fully trust Gialito, but he does have
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: the good matchup numbers here. Yeah, that would be my lean.
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: Let me see what the money looks like here in
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: this one.
• 22:13
  Speaker 5: The money is.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: It looks like a lot of it is on the spread.
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: But yeah, the money, the money line is still getting
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: the action with San Diego sixty percent of tickets seventy
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: four percent of the cash on them. My one issue though,
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: is it looks too easy almost San Diego. You're basically
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: getting a Pickham price like minus one fourteen. It looks
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: so easy to play San Diego in this game, the
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: team with the better record whatever, even though I know
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: it's the public A lot of times is what have
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: you done for me lately? And San Diego sucked lately?
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: But still I like San Diego here and the public
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: still looks like they're on that side, which still concerns
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: me a little bit. But the money does look like
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: gets indicating that way. I agree with it. Toronto at Baltimore,
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: these teams already started their series yesterday. Toronto won the
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: game two to one, so that was not what I expected.
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: I thought there would be a lot more runs in
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: that game. Baltimore used three relief pitchers, Toronto used four.
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: I don't really love either of these bullpens, although Toronto
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: is the better of the two. They're actually at ninth now,
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: which isn't too bad. Baltimore eighteenth. Baltimore is a little
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: bit more rested, but Toronto does have the better bullpen.
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: Probably still Baltimore has the better offense their twelfth. Toronto
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: is twenty third, not very good. Toronto also has not
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: decided on a starting pitcher a year. Still, it looks
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: like this. One problem with this side is it doesn't
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: really tell you, although and maybe if I look at them,
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: you know something some other page on the side, it
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: might tell me. But it seems like they've not decided
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: on a pitcher yet. Baltimore is going with Trevor Rodgers.
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: He has really not been good this season after he
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: was really good.
• 23:55
  Speaker 5: For them last year. He's been awful.
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: Six point nine to six ERA one point sixty two
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: whip That is not what you want. He's been a
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: little bit better at home six point one point one ERA,
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: still not good.
• 24:06
  Speaker 5: He's been really still bad this month.
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: Eight to seven, strike out walk ratio, tons of runs allowed,
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: way more than one per inning, which is ridiculous, more
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: than one hit per inning, as well a lot of walks.
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: Nothing is going right for Rogers right now. Against Toronto.
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: He has decent numbers and twenty eight at bats two
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: fifty average allowed, six fourteen ops eight five strike out
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: walk ratio not great, but three of those walks are
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: Vlad Guerrero, who has hit him okay, three for six,
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: so he might be pitching around Vlad Guerrero there. But yeah,
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, I can't trust Rogers in a situation like this.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: I look back and I was like, well, who did
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: Toronto have pitching five games ago? And it was Dylan
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: ceased but he's hers, so it was supposed to be
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: cease pitching in this game and he has ceased to
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: be in their striking rotation. That sucks for Toronto to
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: do because he's been one of their best pitchers and
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: now he's on the shelf for at least a little while.
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: So I don't know how Toronto's gonna fill this spot.
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: It looks like they're either gonna go with a bullpend
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: game or call somebody up. I mean, I could see
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: an argument for almost I mean, I guess you could
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: almost blindly go over in this game, but I don't know,
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: because Rogers has decent matchup numbers.
• 25:24
  Speaker 5: If Toronto calls up some you know.
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: Prospect that's actually a stud, then I would change my
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: mind on that. But if Toronto's going with a bullpend game,
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: then yeah, then that would have me definitely considering over
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: in this game.
• 25:38
  Speaker 5: But as it stands right now, I don't want.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: To do anything with it. I don't think I would anyway.
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: But let me look at this game. Here, I hear
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: it is the money is indicating that way. Fifty six
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: percent of ticket sixty eight percent of the cash on
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: the over eight and a half is the number there.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: The money line is basically a pick them, and it
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: looks like the money is kind of on Toronto, which
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: is ridiculous. Two percent. Think it's fifty four percent of
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: the cash on them even though you don't even know
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: who's pitching for them. So that's great.
• 26:06
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I would not do that, all.
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: Right, Anaheim At Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay is returning home
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: from a road trip, So again I will say it's
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: not a good spot typically.
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: When a team returns home from the road.
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: Even though I know Tampa Bay just got swept by Baltimore.
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: They lost the last four games on the road trip.
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: They were at the Yankees, then at Baltimore. I know
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: a lot of the tendency, especially with a team like
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: Tampa because they have a good records, Like the recreational
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: betters are gonna think, well, they're gonna be back at home,
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: They're gonna bounce back now, right, and want to play
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: them now that they're back at home. But I disagree
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: with that sentiment obviously, even if the road trip was bad,
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: regardless of whether it was good or bad, I think
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: it's a bad spot on the return home because you
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: have to get back to home life whatever. At least
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: the good thing for Tampa though, is that they sayed
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: in the Eastern time zone. It was all divisional opponents.
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: That makes it a little bit easier. It's a more
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: familiar type of trip for them. But I do really
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: see them paying that much attention to Anaheim. I'm not
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: sure about that. But the negative for Anaheim is they
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: played yesterday, they did win. They're actually playing good baseball
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: again right now somehow, even though this is not a
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: good Anaheim team. But they have won five of their
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: last six games, winning the series against Detroit yesterday. But
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: we know Detroit has really been struggling recently. But still
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: it's a negative that Anaheim is in a no rest
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: spot here and they're having to travel to Tampa from Detroit.
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: Anaheim also has a bad bullpen, and they used four
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday, so they were at a disadvantage there too.
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: Tampa's bullpend hasn't been that good. They're at sixteenth, but
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: Anaheim's is twenty ninth and unrested, so we know that's
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: not good obviously. So Tampa has a rest edge, they
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: have a bullpen edge. Tampa's offense has been the better
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: one as well. They're at ninth. Anaheim is nineteenth. Walbert
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: Uraina is getting the star for the Angels. He hasn't
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: been that bad. This is his rookie campaign. He's got
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: a two point five to eighty r which is really good.
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: One point three to eight whip is not good. Obviously,
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: that tells you his ERA should be higher than that.
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: We have to take that into account. He's been much
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: better at home than on the road, and he's on
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: the road here where he has a five point two
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: to three ERA on the road this year, so he
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: pitches worse on the road. Most of his recent starts
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: have all come at home. And his walk rate is
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: still too high. Like he's pitching alright, as far as
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: the fact that he has a one point six seven
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: e RA this month, but he has twelve walks in
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: twenty seven innings along with twenty three strikeouts, so the
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: walk number is a bit concerning. Only sixteen hits though,
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: so he's not been hitable. He's allowed below one hit
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: per inning on the season by quite a bit. Strikeout
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: rate is decent, it's almost one per inning. His walk
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: rate is high, so that's his issue. He's got to
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: somehow get these walks under control. But one good thing
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: is he is unfamiliar to Tampa Bay. So again, when
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: you have a young starting pitcher like this, unfortunately, he's
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: he's from a place called Mao in the Dominican Republic.
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: They must be communists there. But he has not been
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: seen before by Tampa Bay. So that's an advantage to
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: him because these young pitchers, when they're good, which I
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: think he is, you know, the opposing lineup could struggle
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: a little bit against them. So he has that advantage
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: at least. But I still think Nick martinez'spicially for Tampa,
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: has been the steadier pitcher here. I mean, his numbers
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: are kind of ridiculous. One point five to one ERA,
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: one point one to one WHIP. Obviously I do not
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: expect him to sustain that, but he's pitched pretty well.
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: He's been even better at home one point one four ERA,
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: and this month he's allowed three earned runs total in
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: twenty two and two thirds innings. Tampa has won five
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: of his last six starts. In fact, the won eight
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: of his ten on the season.
• 29:53
  Speaker 5: It looks like it is what that is.
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: He's allowed more than one hit per inning this month, though,
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: so that is concerning, and his strikeout rate is really low,
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: so he's not really fooling hit ors.
• 30:02
  Speaker 5: So this is kind of a you know.
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: Like he looks like he's been good where he's been
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: allowing not many runs, but he did it against Toronto, Boston, Miami.
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: I know he also did it to the Yankees last
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: time out. That was the only good offense that he
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: faced in that stretch. But he only struck out one
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: guy against the Yankees. His strikeout rate, like I said,
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: is concerningly low here hasn't really walked that many people.
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: But he's obviously too hittable right now because more than
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: one hit per inning is kind of gross. On the
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: course of the season, though he's allowed fewer than the
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: one hit per inning. His walk rate is not that high,
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: like I said, and his strikeout rate is also low,
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: so those are kind of in line with what he's
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: done this month. He's just not really a strikeout pitcher though,
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: and he's thirty five years old Martinez, so we have
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: a big age gap between these two pitchers. To not
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: talk about age gaps. Man, his numbers against Anaheim are good.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: In forty five at bats, two hundred adding average, six
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: to fifty ops, seven to five strike out walk ratio,
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: that's not good, but the rest of those numbers are good.
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I want to do with
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: this game, and there are just too many things about
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: it that are in conflict with each other. The money
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: is fading Tampa Bay, at least on the money line.
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: They're a big favorite. It minus one eighty or some
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: minus one eighty or so here eighty four percent of
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: the tickets seventy three percent of the cash on Tampa.
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: So the money is fading them, and I could see
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: that sentiment. You know. Again, they're returning home from the road.
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: They're running into kind of a hot Anaheim team here.
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: But Anaheim also has a rest disadvantage. You know, if
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: I was gonna play Anaheim, I would only do it
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: first five innings.
• 31:38
  Speaker 5: But even that I don't like because I don't really
• 31:40
  Speaker 5: want to fade Nick Martinez either.
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: But I really would not want the Anaheim bullpen, you
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: know what I mean. You know, I'm in the spread.
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: The run line is getting some money for Tampa here,
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: because that's what the professional betters do, you know, try
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: to get the price down. If they like the favorite,
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: they're gonna start looking at the run line and whatever.
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: I could see the arguments for the run line here.
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, Tampa has the advantage. Honestly, I think Tampa
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: has the advantage in all three phases starting pitching, bullpen,
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: and hitting. But I don't really like the spot. But
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: still the spot is also negative for Anaheims, so I
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: think I probably do actually have to lean to Tampa
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: Bay here. All that being said, it would be like
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: a split bet situation run line, money line, make your
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: own minus one run line there whatever, and the totals
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: eight and money is seemingly indicating on the under. But
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: I don't have a great feel for that. But I
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: will say, if you go under, I mean it kind
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: of makes sense to do it first. Well, if you
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: go under, you have to do it first five innings,
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: because I don't trust either bullpen, especially Anaheims, and an
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: unrested anaheim bullpen first five under makes some sense. But
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: you have to worry about your raina, and you know
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: on the road he's not quite as good as his numbers.
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: It might make him look Martinez is probably the guy
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: you have to worry about less because he's been good.
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: Plus his matchup numbers look good. All right, Gerald, what's
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: up man? Yes, Pittsburgh Minnesota first five under and the
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: other one was over nine and a half. I'll bring
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: it back up in the first game. Which is what
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: was it? Braves Reds over nine and a half.
• 33:14
  Speaker 5: That was the other play. Those are my only two
• 33:17
  Speaker 5: of the day.
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: Man, I'm trying to go two and oh here, hopefully
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: we could do it.
• 33:23
  Speaker 5: You know you can.
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: You can watch later. You can see how I broke
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: that game down and analyze that. But it's yeah, over
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: in that Braves Reds game. Unfortunately, I do not think
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: you're gonna find a nine on that, so you do
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: have to go over that hook. But I have my
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: reasons for it. Red Sox at Cleveland. The Red Sox
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: lost ten to two yesterday, but they were in that game, dude.
• 33:43
  Speaker 5: The game was.
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: Two to two.
• 33:44
  Speaker 5: In the middle of the game.
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: Totally was dueling Chrissale in the game, totally got a
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: little bit tired, quit more quickly, even though he's younger,
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: you know, he's less experienced whatever, and the Red Sox
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: bullpend came in and absolutely trashed the game. I don't
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: know what's going on with this Red Sox bullpen. It's bad, dude,
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: It's a bad situation right now. Even though they only
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: used oh no, they used four guys, five guys out
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen. That's also not good. So the Red
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: Sox and Whitlock. I guess it's hurt. They haven't used
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: Chapman in quite a while, but I think that's just
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: because they haven't had a save situation. But this Red
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: Sox bullpen is not in good form right now and
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: it's trashed, so that's not good. They're also facing a
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: Cleveland team that I believe didn't play yesterday, so that's
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: also not good. Cleveland is resting and they're staying at
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: home because they're coming off a home series against Washington.
• 34:38
  Speaker 5: Is that what it was?
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So this is a disadvantage to the Red Sox
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: for multiple reasons. No rest plus travel plus an unrested
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: bullpen not a good start handicapped in this game for
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox. Here, Red Sox are still sixed in bullpen,
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: though their bullpen is still good if they fix their shit.
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: They were pitching really well before this recent like home
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: stand that they had, so this is a better pitching environment,
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: though Cleveland is a more pitcher friendly stadium than Fenway Park.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: Kiss Even though the Red Sox haven't hit well at
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: all at home except recently, they've started hitting a little
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: bit better anyway, Cleveland's bullpen is Okay, their twelfth, So
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: given the rest situation, I think Cleveland probably does have
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: a bullpen edge here somewhat. Red Sox offense has moved
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: up a little bit. They're twenty first right now, Cleveland
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: is twentieth. So these offenses are both not great. Now
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox are doing something interesting here. Maybe they
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: listen to me, So this is gonna be a Brian
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: Beao Red Sox game here, And I know he sucks,
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: but what they've been doing is they've been putting an
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: opener in front of him. It was Moran who they
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: put in front of him the first three times they
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: did that, and actually what they did is they did
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: that twice and BeO pitched really well in both those
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: So Bao was sucking ass as a starter. He's not
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: a good pitch dude, but he's got a mental thing.
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: So when they put an opener in front of him,
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: he pitched way better. So then they said, okay, he
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: must be ready to return to the starting rotation. I
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: was like, nope, this is a mental thing. It's the
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: yips or something. He's gonna be bad again. And I
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: was right, he was terrible.
• 36:15
  Speaker 5: So then what do they do?
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: They moved him back to another situation where they had
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: him follow an opener. It was Moran again, and what happened.
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: BeO actually was pretty decent again in that game, but Moran.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: Every time Moran has been an opener, he's allowed runs
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: every single time, so he sets the pace for the game.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: He puts the Red Sox in a hole right away.
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: So I'm like, what the fuck are you doing, dude.
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: Moran obviously is not the guy for the opener role here.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: Just put him back in the bullpen, have him pitched
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: like you normally would. And they're listening to me because
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox are now going with Tyler Somaniego as
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: their opener this time. He's been good this year out
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen. We'll see what he does as an opener.
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: But he's only gonna pitch one inning and Brian Bao
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: will pitch probably I would guess five six innings after this,
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: especially because the Red Sox want to save the bullpen,
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: so they might just let Bao go even if he's sucking.
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: So mon Diego has a one point oh four ERA
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: one point one five whip not I don't really want
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: to dive into the stats too much. But yeah, he's
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: gonna be an opener here, although he hasn't pitched since
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: the twenty third. But I don't think they're gonna have
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: him go more than an inning here because he's primarily
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: pitched one inning every time he's been out there or less.
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: Uh So I'm pretty sure that that's what they're doing.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: They're gonna have him pitch and then they're gonna go
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: to Bao as the guy that's gonna get most of
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: the innings here.
• 37:41
  Speaker 5: Let me make sure of that.
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, because you go five games back, it was that
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: Moron Bao game and BeO again.
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: He actually did pretty well in that game.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: So we're gonna bring him up right now because he
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: is gonna I'm almost positive that's.
• 37:55
  Speaker 5: What they're doing here today.
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: As a Red Sox fan, I should know Brian Bay
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: will be pitching. He's been awful on the road though,
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: eight point oh one Roady Ray. That is really bad,
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: so you'd rather have him pitching at home. Overall in
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: the season, his numbers are awful, I know, six point
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: four to three ERA, one point eight whip. He's not
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: a good pitcher, dude, I know, but you look at
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: this month. Three good starts this month. All of them
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: were when he came in after an opener at Detroit
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: home against filling at home against Minnesota, and his one
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: bad start was when he actually started the game on
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: the road against Atlanta.
• 38:31
  Speaker 5: So putting him behind an opener is working.
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: He's pitched better this month because of that, and even
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: including that bad game this month, he's got the one
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: where he started. He's got a three point four to
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: seven e RA eighteen to six strikeout walk ratio, more
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: than one hit per inning still, but again that's because
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: of that one bad start for the most partal though,
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: he did allow too many hits last time out against Minnesota,
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: but he didn't allow any earned runs Bayo.
• 38:59
  Speaker 5: I mean over the course of this and his numbers
• 39:00
  Speaker 5: are really really ugly.
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: He's allowed way more than one hit per inning horrible,
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: ten on them runs also bad. High walk rate too bad,
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: low strikeout rate bad.
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: So do we really want to trust him here?
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but you can see that every one
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: of his good outings has come in this situation where
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: they put an opener in front of him, and in fact,
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: he hasn't been bad in any game where they put
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: an opener in front of him. So you have to
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: weigh that, dude, and against Cleveland, I think he actually
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: has decent numbers as well. Yeah, they only have twenty
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: one at bats against him, they have no extra race
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: hits against him at two thirty eight average, five forty
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: twolve ps, two thirty eight batting average allowed, So Bao
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: might actually pitch well here. Again, it looks like I
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: would lean towards Bao actually having a decent outing here.
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: And the good thing for the Red Sox is they
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: get to face Slay Chaconey at least, because he's not
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: a good pitcher for Cleveland at least not really not
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: right now. Five point one eighty one point five four
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: to eight whip. He's been better at home though, three
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: point six home ya race the home road splits do
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: favorite Jaconi here. Chaconi has pitched well this month for
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: the most part, though for Era this month twenty two
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: to seven strike out walk ratio in twenty seven innings.
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: Cleveland had won four starts in a row of his
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: before they gave him no run support in his last outing,
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: which was a decent outing against Philadelphia. But he's allowed
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: thirty two hits in those twenty seven innings so he's
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: still been hittable this month, and over the course of
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: the season, he's been two hittable more than one hit
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: a lout per inning. His walk rates still pretty high.
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: Strike out rate is low as well, or not high
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: enough really for a guy like him. I thought he
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: was more of a strikeout pitcher, so I don't really
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: like his numbers. And his numbers against the Red Sox
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: are also not good. It's only thirteen at bats. I
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: know it's a small sample, but the Red Sox have
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: done a lot of damage for sixty two batting average
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: fourteen to twenty three real ps, four to one strike
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: a walk ratio. I know you have to weigh the
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: sample size accordingly. And whatever I'm thinking Red Sox first
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: five innings here, man, even though I know the Red
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: Sox played yesterday. But maybe one good thing is they're
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: starting a road trip.
• 41:17
  Speaker 5: Then, you know, I talk about that too.
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: When a team starts a road trip coming off an
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: ugly home stand, which it was they lost five of
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: six games, a lot of times it's good to just
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: go out on the road forget about it. The Red
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: Sox have hit better on the road this season as well,
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: for the most part, even though I know they started
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: hitting decently in that home stand and they're pitching blue
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: the blue most of the games for them. But still
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: there are some things that are positive here. I would
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: exclude the bullpends. Even though the Red Sox bullpend generally
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: is good, They're at a rest disadvantage here where.
• 41:46
  Speaker 5: I would not want to deal with that.
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: If Soman Diego gonna have a clean inning there, give
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: it over to Bao, and then you get Bao for
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: the rest of those first five innings. Up against CHACONI
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: I actually think the Red Sox had the advantage there,
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: So I think that's the way I would lean Red
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: Sox first five. You know, once it gets to the
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: full game, I'm definitely not. I would be less confident
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: in that the money is coming in on Cleveland though.
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: Sixty seven percent of tickets eighty six percent of the
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: cash on Cleveland.
• 42:15
  Speaker 5: That's for the full game. They're about a minus one
• 42:18
  Speaker 5: twenty favorite there.
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: But also it almost looks kind of easy to play
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: Cleveland right because they're leading their division, they have a
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: good record. The Red Sox record is awful. They're in
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: last place in their division, so it looks pretty easy
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: to play Cleveland at that cheap of a price, you
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: know what I mean. So there is that too. But
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: of course you're getting the worst pitcher from the Red
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: Sox here, but it's in a situation where I think
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: he might pitch okay.
• 42:43
  Speaker 5: So that's what I have to say about that game.
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: The total is at eight, by the way, and the
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: money's coming in on the over in that game. For
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: what that's worth, you know, I see the arguments for it.
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, you have an unrested Red Sox bullpen. But still,
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know. There are some things about
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: it I don't like. Obviously, Again, I think the Red
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: Sox might be able to hold Cleveland's offense and check
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: a little bit, at least for the first half of
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: the game. Some I don't really want to deal with that,
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: all right, But yeah, I think Red Sox first five
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: would be my opinion in that game. All right. Miami
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: and the Mets, we have the same pitching matchup that
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: we had back when these teams just played in Miami,
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: and I gave you guys an under in that game,
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: and it was a nice winner with Meyer against Peralta.
• 43:26
  Speaker 5: But I don't like it as much in this game.
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: Here at the Mets because the home road splits actually
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: both against it, whereas back when we had the game
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: in Miami, I thought it was more conducive to a
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: part of it was the home road splits both lined
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: up for it. Although this definitely could still be an
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: under Like just I look at that starting pitching matchup,
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: and I'm like, that's a good starting pitching matchup. Both
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: teams were off yesterday. Mets are staying at home. They
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: just ended a losing streak, so that should help the Mets.
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: They had lost five games in a row, what else
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: is new? And then they finally beat the Reds in
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: their most recent so maybe the Mets will have a
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: little bit of They'll have ended their losing momentum, you
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: know what I mean. So sometimes when a team ends
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: a losing streak, they will have that new momentum and
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: play better in the next game. I believe the Mets
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: got swept by Miami in that recent series too. Yeah,
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: so the Mets probably have a motivational edge here because
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: they just got swept at Miami.
• 44:20
  Speaker 5: So they're gonna be focused for this game.
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: They're gonna want to get some wins here against the
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: team that just swept them. Miami is coming in off
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: of two losses though, but they were They're continuing a
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: road trip coming down from Toronto. I think that's not
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: that bad either, though. I think Miami will also show
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: up for this game. I mean, these teams are both
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: neck and neck kind of in last place in the
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: NL East right now, and it's still in the New
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: York Mets. I mean, they're a big market team, Like
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: I think when you're a small market team like Miami,
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: you usually get up for like any game against the
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: Mets pretty much. Mets might have a bit of a
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: motivational edge anyway, anyway, though, I think the situation does
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: favor them a little bit. Both bullpens rest, so that
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: does help if you're like an under here. Miami's got
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: a good bullpend. They're number four, Mets are number eleven,
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: but their bullpening ray is pretty good. So both these
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: bullpens are good and rested. The offenses have not been great,
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: so a lot of that factory into that under I
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: gave out in that other game that I was just
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: talking about. With this same pitching matchup, Miami is seventeenth.
• 45:21
  Speaker 5: The Mets are.
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: Still dead last at thirtieth in offense. Max Meyer is
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: pitching for Miami. He's been really good two point five
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: two ERA and one point zero five WHIP. He's been
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: less good on the road three point nine to eighty.
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: Ray is not exactly bad, though, but he is a
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: little bit more beatable on the road. His last start
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: was that game against the Mets. I gave you guys
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: the under He one hit, shut out them for seven innings,
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: had three walks eight strikeouts, So the.
• 45:50
  Speaker 5: Walk number was a little bit high.
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: But his walk number hasn't been a problem this season,
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: so I'm not really worried about that. I think Meyers
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: should pitch well again here, Like that would be my guess,
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: Like I don't really want to go against him right now.
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: Marlins have won five games in a row that he's pitched.
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: He's got a good strikeout ran on the season, way
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: over one per inning, way.
• 46:09
  Speaker 5: Below one hit a lout per inning.
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: His walk rate actually is a little bit high, but
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: it's been better recently. He's got that walk number down
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: this month, along with all of his other stats remaining good.
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: So he's pitching well here. I mean, I don't think
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: he's gonna do this well again. Now that the Mets
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: just saw him again. They might hit him a little
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: bit better, but then again, this Mets lineup has been
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: really bad this year, and they don't have good numbers
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: against Meyer. In more than just that one start, he's
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: got thirty two at bats against them. He sell him
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: to an own ninety four average three nineteen oh ps
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: eleven to four strikeout walk ratio. That is dominant stuff
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: man eleven strikeouts, four walks and only one extra base
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: hit a double from Vientos Meyer.
• 46:52
  Speaker 5: I mean, he dominates the Mets. That's that is the case.
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: So even though this is on the road, I still
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: expect him to pitch well. Freddy Perrault, we'll be going
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: for the Mets. He's been pretty good. Three point five
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: two ERA, one point two seven whip, a little bit
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: high ish, but you know, I mean that's usually what
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: you get out of him. He's been a little bit
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: worse at home three point seven to six home ERAM.
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: He's pitching pretty decent this month, though he had one
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: start he walked a ton of guys against the Yankees,
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: which is jacking his walk number up. That's kind of
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a blip though in that game
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: where I give up the under against Miami. He did
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: give up four runs and seven innings, but two home
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: runs didn't help his cause.
• 47:32
  Speaker 5: Obviously, he still had nine.
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: Strikeouts, two walks, allowed eight hits, so the rest of
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: those numbers weren't really that bad. He did still pitch
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: pretty well there. Over the course of the season, he's
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: got over one strikeout per inning, well below one hit
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: per inning, and his walk rate is too high. That's
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: always his one issue is the walks, but usually he's
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: a pretty good pitcher anyway. Numbers against Miami they are decent,
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: but his OPS does worry me. So that's another reason
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: why I'm just gonna stay away from this a little bit.
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: But I still do lean under in this one as well,
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: you know, I mean, just sticking with what works, you know,
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: but this is a little bit of a more questionable
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: situation this time, even though the rest does help for sure,
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: which I think was the case going into that other
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: game that I give up the under two, I think
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: the teams were rested then too. Peraltas sixty three at
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: bats against Miami, two thirty eight batting average allowed seven
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: eighty seven ops, though, is what I was talking about.
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: That is higher than that threshold you'd like to see,
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: which I think that if it's above seven fifty, it
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: means the hitters have gotten to them. Although the average
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: is pretty good, he's held them to a low batting
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: average twenty five to ten. Strikeout walker, sure, that's part
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: of the problem. There are a lot of walks, but
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: five of them are from Morale. So I still lean
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: under in this game. That is probably still the way
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: I would play it if I was gonna play this game.
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: The money seems to be pretty strongly indicating that way.
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: We have sixty one percent of tickets on the over,
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: sixty two percent of the cash on the under. Looks
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: like it's seven and a half, so you'd get under
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: that key number of seven seven seven.
• 49:06
  Speaker 5: And a half with the hook.
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: So that is that would be what I would do
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: if I was gonna play this game. I think I
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: would still do that and go under the seven and
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: a half. But that one is not quite on my card.
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: It's fairly close. Like I looked at it and I
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: was like, oh, I think I'm gonna just do what
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: I did last time and play the under here. I
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: just have a few more concerns about it. You know,
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: the home road splits are not as good for it
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: this time at the Mets Stadium. Well, you know, I
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: already talked about all of it, and I don't like that
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: Peralta ops against there. As far as the side money
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: is coming in on the Mets, forty seven percent of tickets, well,
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: fifty three percent of the tickets are on the Marlins
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: and then fifty four percent of the cash on the Mets.
• 49:47
  Speaker 5: Do with that information what you want.
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: To Mets are a small favorite around minus one twenty
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: something here. I don't think I would do that, like.
• 49:55
  Speaker 5: Max Meyer is an underdog, like really, yeah, I don't know.
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: If I that, dude. I know, you know, the Mets
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: do have that momentum. I think it is a little
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: bit of a better situation for the Mets. So again,
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: I don't want to try to pick the side there,
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: but I think just from a matchup perspective, though, I
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: would prefer Meyer over Peralta, and uh, you know yeah,
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: and probably Miami's bult been as well, so I think
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: Miami has SLA in their offense. So I actually think
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: Miami has a slight edge in all three phases there
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: of the matchup, even though it's slight, so getting them
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: as a dog. Uh, looks a little bit enticing, all right,
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: Cubs at Saint Louis. And I don't mean enticing from
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: a public better perspective.
• 50:40
  Speaker 5: I don't think they're gonna think that, but who knows
• 50:43
  Speaker 5: what it looks like.
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: They kind of are slightly based on those percentages that
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: it's talked about. All right, Uh, Cubs at Saint Louis.
• 50:50
  Speaker 5: Is that what I'm looking at here?
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Cubs just finished the series with two wins. Like
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: I said, dude, they broke a losing streak. You break
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: along ten game losing streak like that a lot of times,
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: you will play well again in the next game, and
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: they did.
• 51:04
  Speaker 5: They beat Paul Skins again.
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: Skens didn't do that bad in the game, but the
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: fielding behind them was bad. The bullpen wasn't good. I
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: did lean Cubs and over in that game, and I
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: was correct about both of those. Now, the Cubs are
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: going to Saint Louis, but they do have this new
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: momentum where maybe they'll continue riding it and people are
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: gonna look at this and maybe think this is a
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: closer matchup because Saint Louis is a half game behind
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: the Cubs. Here it's a big series for both teams.
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: It's a big divisional series. But I think the Cubs
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: are just clearly the better team though, and people might
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: not think that because of their long losing streak, although
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis is now on a four game losing streak
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: and they're returning home from a road trip, so you know,
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: I talk about that negative when a team returns home
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: from the road, although in this case it was only
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: from Cincinnati and Milwaukee, so it's not a long road
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: trip distance wise. They're staying in their area of the country.
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: They're used to that.
• 51:56
  Speaker 5: Because it was two divisional opponents, that's not as bad.
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: But still they were away for a week. They have
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: to get back to home life. But then again, I
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: don't really think they're going to overlook the Cubs either,
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: so I'm I don't think it's the worst return home
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: spot there. The Cubs also played yesterday, as I just
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: was pointing out, they used three relief pitchers where Saint
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: Louis was off, so the Cubs have a rest disadvantage here.
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: But the Cubs do have the better bullpen. They're eighth,
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis is twenty third, So even with that rest,
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: the Cubs might still have a bullpen advantage there. Hitting wise,
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: the Cubs have been better as well. They's seventh, Saint
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: Louis is fourteenth, so Saint Louis has fallen off a
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: little bit. Cubs also have the better starting pitcher here,
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: So the Cubs have the advantage in all three phases
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: of this game. But again that matchup wise, they mean,
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: but again they're at a rest disadvantage. But then again,
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis is returning home from a road trips that
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: kind of negates that a little bit. Show toyam Minaga's
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: pitching for the Cubs. He's had a couple of bad
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: starts recently. One was against Milwaukee, who just have historically
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: wrecked him. But his last start was also bad. But
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: still I think he's a really good pitcher man. Four
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: point oh four ERA doesn't look great, but that does
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: not tell the story that ERA is gonna go back
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: down into the threes. He's got a one point oh
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: seven whip that indicates that ERA should be lower than that.
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: He's been better on the road as well. Three point
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: h nine road era maybe will be good for him.
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: Just going on the road. His last two starts have
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: been bad. One was again against Milwaukee, a team that
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: just has his number for some reason. Then in his
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: last outing, it looks bad because he gave up seven
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: runs against Houston. Houston's a pretty good offense, though, but
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: he also got really unlucky in that game. It was
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: off of seven hits in one walk in six innings.
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: He gave up seven runs three home runs, so basically
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: everybody that reached base scored and he still had a
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: six to one stray got walk ratio, so his command
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: was still good there. So I'm not as concerned about that.
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: I think he's gonna be right back into form. He's
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: a really good pitcher. He's a lot fewer than one
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: hit per inning by a lot on the season. His
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: walk is not that bad, and his strikeout rate is
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: also above one per inning. Too many of them runs
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: though ten on them runs a lot, a lot of it,
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: just because of those recent couple of outings though. He
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: is a fly ball pitcher though, so that might hurt.
• 54:13
  Speaker 5: You know.
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: I'd have to go back and look to see, like
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: was the wind blowing out in those two games where
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: he gave up those runs. I don't know if it was,
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: but I don't. I think the win was kind of
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: a non factor in the Milwaukee game. I don't know
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: about the Houston game, but anyway, I expect Demonnaga to
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: pitch better here. He'll be going up against Saint Louis.
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: This is a more pitcher friendly ballpark as well, and
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis is a lesser offense I think than both
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: Houston and Milwaukee. Uh Emonaga is fifty two at bats
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: against him. He's pretty much dominated them thirteen strikeouts, no walks,
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: one ninety two batting average allowed, five nineteen ops against
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis's current hitters. So I do expect Demonnaga to
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: bounce back here and pitch well. Andre Payante is going
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: for Saint Louis. When I lived last night, it was
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: going to be Kyle lay Hey, but they made a
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: switch and they're gonna go with Pionte, which is probably
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: better for Saint Louis. Pionte is at least better than
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: lay He. Pionte on the season as a three point
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: seven to six ERA one point two to five whip,
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: that's not bad. He's been worse at home though, four
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: point eight two home he RA, so he is more
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: beatable at home for whatever reason, even though it's more
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: pitcher friendly here. He's been pretty good this month, though
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: his last three starts he's allowed three or fewer earned
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: runs in all of them. He's got five plus innings
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: in all of them. Actually, if you go back really
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: over the course of the entire season, he's only allowed
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: more than three ear in runs twice. Seventeen to six
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk rasier this month is not too bad. In
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: twenty three and two thirds innings twenty two hits allowed.
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: Over the course of the season, he's allowed fewer than
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: one hit per inning. His walk rate is too high, though,
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: and his strikeout rate is also low. He's not really
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: a strikeout guy. I'm not really a huge fan of his,
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: and he does struggle more at home for whatever reason.
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: And he's going up against a pretty good Cub offense here,
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: and he does not do well against them historically. And
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: fifty nine at bats three, fifty six batting average allowed,
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: one thousand and thirty four oh ps, nine to nine
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. That is not good. Bad numbers across
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: the board from him against the Cubs. So I think
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: I have to lean to the Cubs here to continue
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: riding this momentum, I think there's a big edge here.
• 56:26
  Speaker 5: If you wanted to go first five.
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: Just to take the unrested Cubs bullpen out of the equation,
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: you could do that, but I think full game still
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: kind of makes sense because they are the better bullpen.
• 56:38
  Speaker 5: The money's not agreeing with me though.
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: We have seventy percent of the tickets and sixty eight
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the Cubs, so they're a
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: public side with less of the money on them. They're
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: about minus one forty something here, so the Cubs are
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: in a money line price where I think I would
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: still just play the Cubs on the money line.
• 56:55
  Speaker 5: That would be my opinion in this game.
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: Total is at eight money coming in towards the over
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: in that game, I don't really think I see that,
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: But you know, I don't have a great feel for
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: the total because I think just look at the matchup,
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: in the fact that both teams have negative situational aspects
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: of this game, I think I would have to lean
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: to the Cubs kind of similar to what I said
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: with what was it?
• 57:19
  Speaker 5: Was it Tampa Bay?
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: Maybe I think I said the same thing about so
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: do with that info what you want The Kyle what's up?
• 57:26
  Speaker 5: Thanks for hanging out all right.
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: Next game up is Detroit and the White Sox, And
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: this is a game where I don't even know if
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: the listen starters are actually gonna start, or if they're
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: gonna have openers in front of them, or what these
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: teams are doing here could be bullpen esque for both
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: these teams. Even though I do think the list is starters,
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: you are gonna get the majority of the pitching duties
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: for these two teams. This is a game where if
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: you handicap it, you and you like something, and you're
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: assuming both these pitchers are gonna get a starter's workload here,
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: I would say make it an action play, which means
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: that it's gonna go regardless of which pitcher actually starts,
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: because I think you will get both these pitchers in
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: this game at least at some point, but they might
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: have an opener in front of them, you know what
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: I mean. So action would mean it would still count
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: because you're handicapping this basically at least knowing that these
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: guys are gonna pitch.
• 58:16
  Speaker 5: I hate these opener things. Man.
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: The books should change it so that it's like if
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: this picture, well, I don't know how they would do
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: that though, because you know, you can't really say if
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: this pitcher pitches more than a certain amount of innings
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: or something like that, right because then you know, injuries
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: happen and something like that. So I don't know, and
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: the books don't. The books don't want that to be
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: the case if an injury happens. That's just the way
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: that it is embedding. It's like you got unlucky man.
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: Sorry anyway, Detroit at the White Sox. Both teams played yesterday.
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: The White Sox are staying at home and they had
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: a good series. They beat Minnesota to win that series yesterday,
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: so they have some momentum here. The Cubs have been
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: a decent team this year and they're staying at home.
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: Detroit is traveling in from Detroit, so not really a
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: bad travel spot for them either. And they just played
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: poorly at home again, and they had a little bit
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: of an earlier game. Both teams played in the afternoon
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: yesterday though, but Detroit had the earliest game so they
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: could get out of there. We lost the over in
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: that game and Anaheim had to tease us and get
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: it right to the eight right in the ninth inning.
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: Then all you need is Anaheim's bad bullpend to give
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: up one run. Come on, man, garbage runs bottom of
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: the ninth. Nope, Detroit's offense is ass I'm pissed anyway, Detroit.
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: It's a decent spot for them too. I mean, they're
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: going back out on the road here off a bad
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: home series, so they should be focused here. Both these
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: teams Detroit, well, Detroit really has been struggling, man, but
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: I think both these teams should still be motivated in
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: this game. As far as the bullpens, I don't really
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: like either of them. The White Sox use three relief
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday. Detroit also did. The White Sox bullpen is
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: the somewhat worse of the two. They are at twenty
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: fifth Detroit twenty first, so they both have any ray
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: of above four. Detroit slight bullpen edge, though I guess
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: White Sox have the better offense. They're sixth in offense.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: Now Detroit has fallen completely down. They're at twenty second,
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: very very bad. Detroit is going with Troy Melton, and
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: if you look at what he's done this year, he's
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: actually he's made one actual start this year. That was
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: his only appearance. He made one start and he was
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: actually good. He went five to two thirds innings at Baltimore.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: I think it was kind of a spot start. He
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: only gave up two hits, one or in run, but
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: he walked three guys. But maybe you can overlook that
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: a little bit because it was his first start of
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: the season, so give him a break for that. He
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: had three strikeouts as well. He made four starts with
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: Detroit last year, though he mostly came out of the bullpen,
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: but his numbers were pretty good. He had a two
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: point seven to six ERA one point zero one with
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: last year across all of that.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 5: But he was not a strikeout guy. That was the thing.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: Like his strikeout rate was low, he was not hittable though.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: His hit rate was really low and his walk rate
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: was okay. So he's not really a strike up pitcher.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: Doesn't blow guys away. It doesn't look like but he's, like,
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: you know, I think he's an okay pitcher. He's at
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: least serviceable. I would say the White Sox did see
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: a little bit of him last year. They have ten
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: at bats against. They only have one hit, though a
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: single from Greek Chucks. They have no extra base hits
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: four to four strike up walk ratio though, so some
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: walks in there, but a one hundred average four to
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: fifty seven ops. Melton might actually pitch well again here
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: and the White Sox will be going with Eric Fetti,
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: who has started sucking again after he was decent at
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: the beginning of the season. But I kind of didn't
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: think it would last, even though maybe you know, the
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: change in scenery helped him a bit, or you would
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: think might have helped him a bit going back to
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: one of his former teams, but not. He's starting to
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: pitch badly again. Five point four to seventy r ray,
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: one point four.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 5: To six whip. That's not good.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: He's better at home though, magnificantly three point seven to
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: one home her compared to seven point five to four
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: on the road, so he is better at home. He
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: got lit up in his last game against San Francisco.
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: That's not a good sign, dude. At San Francisco, they're
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: a weak offense and they played a pitcher friendly park,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: not a good sign. Also not a good sign. Fetti
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: has a nine to nine strike out walk ratio this
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: month and way above one hit all out per inning.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: Seven home runs allowed this month as well. In an
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: era over ten. He is completely out of form right now.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: I want nothing to do.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 5: With Fetti here.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: Over the course of the season, he's got more than
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: one hit a lout per inning. He's allowed twelve home runs,
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: which is quite bad in the amount of innings especially.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: High walk rate not good, low strikeout rate not good.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: There's not a whole lot to like here with Fetti.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: Against Detroit, his numbers are mediocre ish in twenty eight
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: to bats seven to one strike out walk race here
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: two fifty average seven to seventy six obs. That is
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: a little bit on you know, it is above seven
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: to fifty, So I would say that, yeah, Detroit's bats
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: do have a slight advantage against them, but it's not
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: that extreme. I do still lean towards Fetti not pitching
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: well here, though, So I think I like Detroit in
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: this game, you know. I mean, there's no rest advantage
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: one way or the other. Detroit getting out of home
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: might help them a little bit. Detroit being favored on
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: the road is absolutely insane, dude, And typically they're a
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: better home team. They haven't been good either way recently,
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: but the fact that Detroit is like minus one twenty
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: on the road absolutely nobody I would think is gonna
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: want Detroit in this game. But the money's coming in
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: on the White Sox. But I don't agree with that.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: Fifty nine percent of tickets, seventy four percent of the
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: cash on the White Sox. Yeah, no, I kind of
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: lean Detroit. I would prefer Melton over Fetti at this point.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: Plus I think Detroit has the slightly better bultpend as well. Yes,
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: the White Sox have the way better offense, that is true,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: so you have to take that into a cat. But again,
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: this line looks so misleading. I'm surprised that that the
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: cash is actually coming in on the White Sox here. Again,
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: it looks so easy to play the White Sox, Like,
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: how are you getting the team with the better record
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: here as.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 5: An underdog at home? You know what I mean?
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: The oddsmakers are telling you something with that, right, Like,
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: it just looks so easy to play the White Sox here.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: So that is not what I would do. But then again,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: if you want Detroit, you're laying them as a favorite,
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: even though they're eight and twenty one on the road,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: they look like they've been just a team that's been
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: just mentally, you know, horrible, like like their mental state
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: has been horrible since the school bol injury. I don't know.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: And yes, the White Sox are good at home seventeen
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: and eleven. So if you're doing that, you are fading
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: all of those things. I'm not playing the game, but
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: I would lean to Detroit. It sounds insane, I know,
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: Kansas City at Texas for Zak Here, Texas is staying
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: at home and they just lost three out of four
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: to Houston and they've now lost what is this, seven
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: of their last eight games or something like that, six
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: of their last seven.
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 5: I mean, that is ridiculous, dude.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: This Texas team is not as bad as this again,
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: just like last year, think Texas is way underperforming, but
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: their offense is a concern. Like again like the Red Sox.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: Their pitching has been pretty good this year for the
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: most part, but their offense has been so bad that
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: the pitching can't even cair the team. That's kind of
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: what's happening here. Texas pitching has been quite good, but again,
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: just like last year, their hitting is so bad that
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: it's not good enough. They play a lot of low
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: scoring games at home, So somebody keep in mind Texas
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: very very pitcher friendly they should be in a decent
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: spot to bounce back here, playing a Royals team that's
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: really struggled this year. The Royals are coming in off
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: of a series against the Yankees. I think both teams
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: were off yesterday. If I'm not mistaken. Oh no, Texas
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: played yesterday. My mistake. Royals have a rest advantage that
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: and so my mistake. The Royals did not play yesterday,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: Texas did. The Royals are starting a road trip here,
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: coming down from Kansas City. They just got swept by
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: the Yankees.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 5: What else is new?
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: Did not look very good in that series at all. Really,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: first game they looked okay with Michael Walker. That was
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: the under first five that we had a winner on
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: here on the show. But since then Kansas City has
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: looked atrocious. I don't really like Kansas City here either, man.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: I think it's a bounce back spot for Texas. Even
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: though Kansas City has the rest edge, Texas still has
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen. They only use one guy out of
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: the bullpen, Cal Kuantrell, who's still around.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 5: He's a long relief guy, obviously not.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: One of their better pitchers. So Texas bullpen is intact
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: and sets up well here and they're the seventh ranked
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: bullpen with a better ERA than that. They're a good bullpen.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: Kansas City not good. In fact, they're ranked dead last
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: in whip, although I still think they're probably better than Houston,
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: but they could be the second worst bullpen ben at
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: this point, bad stuff. Kansas City has the better offense here,
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: but not by much or no, they're actually ranked worse now.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: My mistake. Texas is twenty third, Kansas City twenty fifth,
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: my mistake point oh one difference on the on the
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: ops there. So Texas, dude, I think they might have
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: a starting pitching edge. They definitely have a bultpen edge,
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: and they might have the offensive edge here that has
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: be looking towards Texas. Stephen Colek is pitching for the Royals.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: He's got good numbers, but I don't really trust him.
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: He's got a two point seven to seven e RA
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: point eighty five whip. I realize that's all good. He
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: hasn't been as good on the road though. Four point
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: oh nine. Roady Ray, you know, I know Texas is
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: a pitcher of friendly park though, and Saint Louis also is,
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: and he pitched well in that game against Saint Louis,
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: so really his stats are being skewed by a bad
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: start at the White Sox.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 5: He's coming off a complete.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: Game shutout of Seattle, though, where he only struck out two.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: So here's the thing, man, he threw over one hundred pitches,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: fourteen more pitches than he'd thrown in any other outing
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: this season, So that would have me worried a little
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: bit too. I know he's been around for a while now,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: he's twenty nine, so it's not like he hasn't done
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: this before. But when a guy throws that many pitches
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: for the first time on the season, he has like
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: one of his better starts of his career, I think
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: he could be in line for a bit of a
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: regression here, a bit of a letdown. So I would
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: worry about Colec for that reason here as well. He's
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: in fact though he's he's actually given up no runs
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: in his last two outings and he's pitched well, definitely,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: But coming up that complete game shutout of Seattle, a
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: ton of pitches one oh wait, it's gonna worry me
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: a bit. This is we're not in the days of
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: Cy Young anymore or whatever. Man, We're guys will pitch
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: five days in a row and throw one hundred and
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: fifty pitches every single time. We should we should go
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: back to that. It seems like guys get hurt more
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: now than they did back then too, So what the fuck, dude,
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: everybody's just a sissy now. Coleck has low strikeout rate
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: fourteen and twenty six innings, but he hasn't allowed a
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: lot of hits seventeen, not a lot of walks either,
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: five so he's not a strikeout pitcher, but he's been
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: keeping guys off the bases. Against Texas, he does not
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: have good numbers, although it's a small sample. Twelve at
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: bats they have five hitters will faced him. They have
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: a five hundred batting average against him in twelve eighty
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: eight ops, one strikeout, no walk. So Kolek has been good,
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: has been not good against Texas. He will be going
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: up against Mackenzie Gore, who is having an okay season
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: four point four two ERA one point two to four whip.
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: Mediocre numbers there, but he's been good at home two
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: point sixty three home ERA, so this home venue has
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: definitely helped him out a bit. He pitched really well
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: last time out on the road, against Anaheim after he
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: had a I think he had like a relief appearance
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: in the previous outing against Colorado. I don't know what
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: that was at course Field. But then he had a
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: good start the game before that against Arizon two. So
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: his last two starts have actually been good. But his
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: walk rate is a problem. This has always been the
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: case with him. He allows very few hits, He strikes
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: out a good amount of guys, but he walks too
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: many guys, and that's what's happening this year too. It's
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: just the same that you know what you're gonna get
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: with Gore pretty much, although with that amount of walks
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: it does make the picture a little bit unpredictable.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 5: He's going up against Kansas City.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: Let me see here, he's got good numbers against them
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: in twenty eight at bats ten strikeouts, one walk, two
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: fourteen average, five sixty three oh ps. Those are good numbers.
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: Man ten one strike out walk ratio. One extra base
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: hit is a home run from Marte. Marte is like
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: the only guy in this lineup that does damage against him,
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: and he does hit him well, but the rest of
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: this lineup doesn't do well against him, and they're pretty
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar with him. So I like Texas in this one,
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: even though I know they're at a rest disadvantage here.
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: I prefer their starting pitcher. I prefer their bullpens still,
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: especially because their bullpen is still rest here.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 5: The money doesn't agree on the money line.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: At least sixty eight percent of tickets are on Texas
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: at about minus one thirty or so, but fifty seven
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the Royals. I just don't
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: see it, man, I don't So I don't know. I
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: lean Texas there, But do what you want with all
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: that info. Well, I'll be right back and I'll talk
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: about the rest of these games, and then we have
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: WNBA and hockey still to come, but no more plays
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: for me, and hopefully I'm picking the right games here
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: with the games that I gave out, man, because I
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: don't know. I went through this card and I felt
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: like I wasn't seeing it.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 5: Well, you know what I mean, So I don't.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: I don't like when I have that feeling, you know,
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: some of these leans are gonna hit and then my
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: plays are not like That's just that happens a lot.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: But all right, I'll be right back. I don't even
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: know if I could, you know, if I could show
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: the screen or not. I can give you the next
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: game Milwaukee in Houston, but other than that, or I can,
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: you know, go back to some I don't know, I
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: could play some one of my I'll play the old intro.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: How about that.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 5: I haven't used that in a while.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: I'll be right back. Intermission time intro mission yep, inside,
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: I want to kill myself. We are on OWN seven
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight it was
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: just complete bullshit.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 6: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 6: Sunday one and five.
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you above that.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 5: I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good day at all.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 5: OWN four that.
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: Have not had a good season. Man with wookends the
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 5: I've reached a new peak.
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hack Man.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 5: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: Archie is that what it is?
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 5: I don't even know it's Archie. I think who even
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 5: knows Man I don't know what data is anymore. But
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 5: I don't even know what data is anymore.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: Man back with you after the worst day that I.
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 6: Could possibly have, Back with you as I always am
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 6: until I die at least oh and two yesterday and
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 6: yesterday did not go well for me. Own five the
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 6: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 6: doing this.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 5: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: To the slumpers, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 5: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: other than potentially end it all.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 3: All right?
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: Next game up is this Houston game? Whatever it is
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee at Houston. So Milwaukee has a rest advantage. They
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: did not play yesterday. They are coming off a sweep
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: of Sayt Lewis, so a nice divisional suite, but starting
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: a road trip with momentum, A lot of times you
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: will be focused. I don't know if they're gonna really
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: be in a letdown off of Saint Louis. I guess
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: it's possible.
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 5: Houston is coming off a nice.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: Series though they just beat Texas and the returning home
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: from a road trip that was a long road trip.
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: They have the longest road trip that they're returning from today.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure where they went to Minnesota, the Cobbs,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: and Texas, and they did well on the road trip.
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: They swept the Cobs and took three out of four
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: from Texas. So this looks like a bad spot for
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: Houston for a bunch of reasons. They're at a rest
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: disadvantage here, They're returning home from a road trip. Could
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: be a letdown spot as well. So a lot of
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: negatives here. But are they gonna overlook Milwaukee. I don't know,
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: because they know Milwaukee is good. Still, I think it's
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: negative though your return home from the road, you had
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: to get back to home life and whatever. But so
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: when I first looked at this, I'm like, yeah, I'm
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: gonna be looking at potentially play Milwaukee here. But then
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: I'm looking at the pitching matchup and I'm like, I
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: don't know, man, this is a pretty difficult pitching matchup
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: to gauge. Milwaukee definitely has a huge bullpen edge, so
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: there is that. So if you're gonna play Milwaukee, full game.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 5: Is the way to do it.
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: Houston used four relief pitchers yesterday and their bullpen has
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: been better recently, but they still suck.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 4: Dude.
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: They're at twenty seventh, Like, I don't see them moving
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: up that much. I could be wrong, but I don't
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: think this is a good bullpen. The Brewers bullpen is
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: good and they are where are they at? They're thirteenth,
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: but their ERA is pretty good and they're rested, so
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: I think the Brewers have a pretty big bullpen advantage here.
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: Houston is the better offense right now. They're fifth, but
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: the Brewers are not that bad even though they're seventeenth.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: I think this is a decent Brewer offense here. The
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: Brewers are going with Coleman Crow, and I'm like, who
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: the hell is this guy? But he has good numbers
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: two point six one ERA point seven to seven whip
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: Cameron Crow. He's got good numbers this year. But it's
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: only two starts, and they were both starts. But I
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: think they were both spots starts because I have not
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: handicapped this guy at all. So I think these are
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 2: both games where they put him in as the starter
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: last minute they announced him. He pitched well in both outings,
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: though against Miami and Minnesota, not the greatest offenses really,
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: but still you got to give him credit for this.
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: He's gone ten to a third innings. He went at
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: least five and both starts. Seven hits allowed, three or
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: in runs allowed, one walk, seven strikeouts. Those are pretty
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: good numbers. Not a high strikeout rate, really, but decent
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: numbers across the board. I looked, you know, has he
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: pitched in the past. The answer is no, So he's
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: actually like a rookie even though he's twenty five. So
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: that probably means an injury kind of came into play there,
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: and that's true. I looked him up, man, but his
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: scoutering report really wasn't that positive though. Like they talked about,
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: you know what kind of stuff he throws. He throws
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: like a low to mid nineties fastball. He's got a
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: curveball and a slider that I guess are both really good.
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: So the curve and the slider are like his best pitches,
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: like his something. Then I guess he mixes in a
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: change up a little bit, but whatever, I mean, he's
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: been decent so far. So he's still he's a guy
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: that I don't necessarily want to play on right now,
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: but we know he has an unfamiliarity edge here too.
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 2: On he has been pitching well, so I think the
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: signs are more positive than negative for him. But I
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: don't love his scouting report memory. He was kind of
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: projected as they projected him as a spot starter, like
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: that's which is what he is right now. That's not great,
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: but he's making the most out of it. I guess
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: Houston has never faced him before, so he might pitch
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: well here. You know, I would actually lean more towards
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: him doing well than not. But Houston's going with Kaiwei
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: Tang and he's been kind of sneakily pretty good, even
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: though most of his numbers are pitching out of the bullpen.
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: But he's made a couple of starts too, and he's
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: been not bad. Uh. He's got a two point one
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: nine ERA one point zero five whip. He's been good
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: at home one point six y nine Homy Ray. He's
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: made starters workload, uh, type of I think they were
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: both actually starts.
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 5: The last two times out.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: He went eleven combined innings against Texas, which is kind
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: of whatever.
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 5: They're not a good hitting team.
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: But then at the Cubs he allowed no runs over
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: that span off of only four hits and he had
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: thirteen strikeouts. That's pretty good. But his walk rate was
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: enormous as well, though he had seven walks over that span,
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: So that's a bit concerning that it looks like when
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: he goes more innings, he starts walking more guys. But
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: I don't necessarily want to fade him here though, because
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: he's been pretty.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 5: Effective so far.
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: Nonetheless, over the course of the season, decent strikeout rate
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: almost one per inning, a very low hit rate, and
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is too high. What else is new,
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: especially in the starts and most of his most of
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: his appearances have been relief of appearances though, so I
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: don't know. Is he fadable? Maybe I still don't think
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: he's fully trustworthy here, but the Brewers have never faced
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: him before, even though he was in the National League
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: a bit last year with the Giants, so I don't know.
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: Both pitchers have an unfamiliarity edge here at least, so
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: I think this game is a little bit hard to predict. Dude,
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: I like Milwaukee. I think if I was gonna play
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: this game, that would be how I would lean, given
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: how negative the situation is for Houston in my opinion,
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: Plus Milwaukee having the bullpen edge, and you could make
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: the argument they have a starting pitching edge seventy five
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets eighty one percent of the cash on Milwaukee,
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: so the money kind of agrees, even though Milwaukee's public
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: I think I would Yeah, I mean, I am agreeing
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: with myself. They're around minus one twenty two here. That's
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: probably the way I would go is money line Milwaukee.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 5: I think there are some arguments for the under here.
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 5: The under looks like it is getting.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: Money fifty six percent of tickets seventy one percent of
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: the cash on the under. I would do it first
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: five though I know Milwaukee has arrested bullpen, but Houston's
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: bullpen is still a liability, dude, So the totals eight
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: and a half full game, I think under verse five
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: makes some sense in this game. Both pitchers might be
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: capable of keeping that under, but I think it is
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: a bit risky. I think if I was gonna play
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: the game, yeah, first five inning under is a possibility,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: but I think I would much prefer being on the
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: Brewers' money line in that game, all right. Giants at Colorado.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: Colorado was returning over from a road trip. They went
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: to Arizona and the Dodgers. At least that was a
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: divisional road trip. They did not do well on the
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: road trip at all. They won one game out of
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: the seven. But what do you expect when you're the
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: Rockies and you had to play at La for part
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: of that road trip.
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 5: Now they're back home again.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: It's a negative when you return home, but they might
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: show up because it is a divisional series. They're in
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: last place in the division. They might still show up
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: for this. San Francisco is coming in off of getting
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: swept by Arizona. So both these teams got beaten by
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: Arizona recently. San Francisco is starting a road trip. Neither
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: of these teams played yesterday, I don't believe, so both
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: teams have rest here. San Francisco is in the better
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: spot though, because Colorado's returning on from the road.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 5: I always saw about this.
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: You know, when a team returns home from the road
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: from the road again, I'm gonna say it, they can
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: be distracted.
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 5: They have to get back to home life.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: A team leaving home a lot of times it does
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: better because they want to get the road trip off
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: on the right foot. Neither team used any relief pitchers
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 2: yesterday because they didn't pitch. The Giants have the better bullpen.
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: The Giants are fifteenth right now, but their era is
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: quite good. They got the better bullpen. The Rockies are nineteenth,
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: but their e ray is more than a run higher,
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Giants have a bullpen edge. Giants offense is
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: not good tho, although the Rockies offense has kind of
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: been struggling as well. They're at twenty fifth Colorado is
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: the Giants are twenty eighth, so we have some offenses
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 2: that are definitely struggling. But we have a ten and
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 2: a half total here. Because it is a course field now,
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: the situation should line up for San Francisco here. Bullpen
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: edge should be towards San Francisco. Here. Hitting is pretty
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: similar both ways and San Francisco. Looking just looking at
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: this on the surface, you gotta think San Francisco is
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: a starting pitching edge here with Logan Webb returning from injury,
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: by the way, but when you start looking into this,
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: maybe maybe not. So web is returning from injury, there
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: was something wrong with him obviously, because his numbers this
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: season are not what you usually get out of him
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: at all. He's usually a solid pitcher, dude. He usually
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: gives you a lot of innings. He's usually gonna give
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: you like an ERA that's like in the high three.
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: Isn't a whip in like the one two's That's not
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: what he's been doing so far this year. Five point
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: zero six ERA, one point four whip. I expect him
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: to be better. I think there was something wrong with
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 2: them and he went on the DL or the I
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: l he's coming back, which I don't think that's much
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: of a concern for a guy like him.
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 5: He's a veteran. He's come back from injury before you know.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: I think that's fine. He's not like a particularly hard
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: thrower either, Like he doesn't really rely on velocity that much.
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 5: He relies on.
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: Like location, pitch mix whatever. Web is also really good
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: on the road, which is really crazy to think about
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 2: because San Francisco is good at home and they have
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: a good pitching park at home. Webb was really good
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: at home last year, but this year he's got a
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: three point nine to six Rody RRA compared to six
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: plus at home. Very in dressed.
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 5: He's been better on the road.
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: He had a really bad outing last time out against
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: San Diego and that's kind of what put him on
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: the injured list. Looking at his numbers over the course
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: of the season, they're not that bad. He's allowed more
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: than one hit per inning, though, but a lot of
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: it was from that last outing too many walks, but
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: he usually does have a little bit of a walk issue,
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: and he's usually not a huge strike up pitcher, so
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate is kind of in line with what
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: you expect, not.
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 5: Right at one per inning.
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: If you look at his numbers this season, though, he
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: also hasn't allowed more than He's only allowed more than
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: three on runs three times this season, so that's not
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: really that bad. And he allowed more than four twice,
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: and it was in his first start of the season
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: against the Yankees, which the rest of the numbers in
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: that start weren't even that bad, and the Yankees are
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: a good offense. And then that last outing where he
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: didn't d well against San Diego, and I think an
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: injury got.
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 5: Involved in that one.
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, I think Webb is going to
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 2: return to some sort of form at some point and
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: be what we're used to him being. I don't know
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: if it's gonna be here, though, because his numbers against
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: Colorado are not good. In sixty nine at bats three
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: sixty two batting average eight thirty eight ohps.
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 5: That is not good.
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: Eleven strikeouts three walks is fine, but yeah, this is
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: not a great matchup for him.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: I think he is still better than Michael Lorenz and
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 2: the Lorenzen going for the Rockies. He has really really
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: had issues this year, mostly at home in course field.
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: He's got a seven point two to one ERA overall
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: one point nine whip. This is really really bad. I mean,
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: Colorado is basically where every pitcher has numbers like this
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: though it's where pitchers go to die. But he has
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: particularly bad splits here. He's got a ten point zero
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 2: three ERA at home, really bad stuff. His ERA is
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 2: more tolerable the road by five runs. He didn't dwell
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: on the road last time out, really against Arizona. He
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: pitched against Arizona twice in a row, did poorlyum both starts.
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: He's been awful at home though his last home start
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 2: prior to that was against the Mets and that was
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: bad as well. Over the course of the season, low
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: strikeout rates, hit rate is really high. Like he's probably
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: allowed more more hits per inning than anybody in baseball
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: this year with you know, with a sample size that's
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: big enough, really really bad stuff. Is extremely high hit rate,
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: and his home run rate is high too, and I
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: think a lot of that has been at home. Oh actually,
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: I think he's allowed five home runs both at home
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: and on the road, so whatever.
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 5: And his walk rate is not really that bad.
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: But but yeah, yeah, great when when you're so hittable,
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 2: it doesn't even matter. His numbers against the Giants are
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: also not good. In forty at bats three twenty five
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: average allowed eight forty seven ops nine to three strike
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio. I mean I have to kind of
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: lean to the Giants here, I think, based on the
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: fact that I still would rather have Web here plus
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: the Giants bullpend, but you're laying minus one seventy something,
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 2: so I think you'd have to go with the run
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: line or something like that, and that's where the money
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: actually is taking the Giants on the run line, as
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: we usually see in baseball like this, I think you'd
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: have to go split that run line money line. But
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 2: the money line money is coming in against the Giants
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: eighty one percent of tickets and only seventy four percent
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them. So there is some money
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 2: taking Colorado here. I think I see arguments for an
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 2: over here as well, which I just showed you, because
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: both starting pitchers have bad matchup numbers. I know there
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: are some things I don't like about it, like the rest,
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: the day of rest.
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 5: One team returning home from the road.
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: I don't really love that as far as an over
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 2: is concerned, but I think I would lean over. In fact,
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: you know that might be the best actually way to
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 2: play this game is to go over. But you're going
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: over ten and a half if you're gonna need runs
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 2: here from a couple of offenses that have really not
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: done well. So I would worry about that too. But
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: the money does agree with it. We have fifty seven
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets on the under and fifty eight percent
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the over. I like the over
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: in that one, probably more than anything else, but I
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: don't want to make that A play. Yankees at the A's,
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: So the Yankees have to go to this horrible Triple
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 2: A stadium the A's playing. Speaking of overs, maybe this
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: is gonna be one two. The Aas are staying at
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: home here. They had yesterday off. Both teams are off yesterday,
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 2: the A's got swept by Seattle at home. A's have
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: been playing okay baseball. I mean they might show up
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: for a game like this against the Yankees. Yankees are
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: coming off a sweep of Kansas City and now traveling
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: to the Pacific coast. Uh so the situation looks a
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: little bit better for the A's. To me, I'm not
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 2: really I don't really want to do that though, for
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: a number of reasons. The Yankees have the better bullpen.
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: They rank tenth, although their ra is pretty solid. Athletics
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: twenty second. That's not good. Yankees have the bullpenachy Yankees
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 2: have the better offense, although both offenses have been pretty good.
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 2: Yankees are number two, Athletics number ten. Carlos Rodon is
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: pitching for the Yankees here.
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: He struggled in his first couple outings coming back from injury,
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: but he was better in his most recent outing. He's
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: got a four point one five ERA. That's not too bad.
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: One point four to six whip is pretty bad though.
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: So He's been putting a lot of guys on base.
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 2: But I'm gonna give him a little bit of a pass,
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: at least in that he did pitch better in his
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 2: last outing, and he's still you know, readjusting to pitching again,
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: you know, like his numbers last year or whatever for
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 2: the Yankees are actually pretty strong, so and I think
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: he kind of went under the raidar and whatever. His
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: numbers are bad on the road so far this year though,
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: five point six y three roady Raim. But then the
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: other thing I want to look at is did he
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: pitch in course, you know, in not course field in
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: this A state last year? I don't know last year
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: he was. He had very insignificant home road splits last year.
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 2: But I wanted to know did he pitch at the
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: A's last year at all?
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 5: And I looked, I don't think he did.
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 2: Know he did. He was actually decent in that start.
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 2: I didn't see that when I looked before He pitched
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 2: once in May at the A's last year. He went
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 2: six innings loud, eight hits, four and runs two home runs.
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: That's not that great, but he also had ten strikeouts
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: and no walks in that outing, so that really was
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 2: not a bad performance from him. So I think he
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 2: might actually he may do okay here this year. He's
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: actually got a decent ground ball raid so far. But
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: usually that's not the case. Like if you look at
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: his full season last year, he was more fly ball
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 2: leaning last year, so that's not great for this stadium.
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: But he did pitch well enough in the stadium last year.
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 2: This year, he had two rough outings against Milwaukee and
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: the Mets, but he bounced back a bit. He's trending
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: in the right direction, at least with a decent starting.
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: It's Toronto, but Toronto's offense is not good, dude. The
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 2: A's are gonna be one of the best offenses he's
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 2: faced so far, arguably the best, because they're certainly better
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: than the Mets in Toronto, and they may be better
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: in the Milwaukee's. Rodon still has a really high walk
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: rate three plus walks in each outing so far eleven
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 2: walks in thirteen innings seventeen strikeouts is good, but that
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 2: walk rate is crazy and eight hits allowed, so he's
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 2: still he still has some issues right now. His numbers
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 2: against the A's are actually really good, though, and forty
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 2: seven at bats one twenty eight average allowed, three seventy
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 2: six ohps, sixteen to two strikeout walk ratio. Rodon actually
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 2: has pretty good numbers there. In the matchup Luis severn
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: Reno is pitching for the A's. The one thing to
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 2: know about him, as I always point out, is that
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: he pitches really badly at home in this a stadium,
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: and he pitches way better on the road. That was
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: the case last year, it's been the case this year too.
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: He's got a four point two to three ERA, which
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: is not too bad, but one four whip that's not good.
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 5: That's too high. He's had a lot of problems at home.
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: Like I said, five point five to five HOMEYRA, that's
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: not good. He pitched well last time out at Anaheim,
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 2: but of course that was on the road, had ten
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: strikeouts in that one two hour in runs. So now
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 2: he's back at home where the last time he was
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 2: here he got knocked around by the Giants, who are
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 2: not even a good team, so that's not good. His
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 2: previous home start was actually good against Kansas City, but
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: that seems like more the exception than the rule. His
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 2: overall numbers are not great. He has more than one
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 2: strikeoup per inning, which is good, but he's a bit
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: of a fly ball pitcher, which doesn't help in this stadium.
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: Six of the eight home runs he's allowed, I believe
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 2: have come in this stadium. He's allowed fewer than one
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: hit per inning, which is good, but his walk rate
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 2: is crazy high. He's walking more than one guy every
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: two winnings. That's really not good. And his numbers against
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, I am pretty sure are not good.
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 5: Yeah, they're not great.
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 2: In seventy nine at bats to seventy eight batting average allowed,
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 2: ninety three ohbs, twenty one to twelve strike out walk ratio.
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 2: None of that is good, So you know, I mean, unfortunately,
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 2: I think probably the lean would be the Yankees here. Uh,
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 2: the public's gonna be coming in on that side, though
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: the money looks like it might be as well.
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 5: The Yankees are around minus one fifty or so here.
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: I would maybe start looking towards a split bet on
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: the money line and run line.
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 4: Here.
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 2: You could go Yankees over team total two. That might
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 2: be actually the better approach. Now, the Yankees are getting
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: the money on the on the money line eighty eight
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets, ninety three percent of the cash there.
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 2: But I think if you want the Yankees, I think
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: over Yankees team total makes more sense. And the total
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: for the full game is ten and the money is
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: hitting the over. On that too, sixty four percent of
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 2: tickets are on the under for some reason, fifty two
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over.
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 5: So the money is somewhat indicating.
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: On the over. And if you think the Yankees are
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: probably gonna be the right side here and it's gonna
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: be higher scoring, I think we take the question mark
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 2: of Rodon out of the equation because I think there
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: are some question with him here, and we just go
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: with what we know is that the Yankees have a
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: pretty good, big sample size where they hit well against
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: several you know, we know he's bad at home. So
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: that's the way I think I would go here is
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 2: Yankees over team total is probably the way it played.
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 2: I know, I don't really do team totals really. I
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 2: know I did one with success the other day with
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: the Oklahoma City Thunder, but NBA playoffs, I don't know.
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: I feel a bit more confident about that than in
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: other sports. Maybe I should start working those into my
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: arsenal more, but this is one where I think I
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: might do that. I think that's the better way to
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 2: play that game is Yankees over team total. But also
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: if you do that, you might need them to score.
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 2: I don't what do you need them to score in
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 2: that game?
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 5: Six runs? I mean that.
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 2: I guess that's not that bad. It's definitely doable, and
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 2: they will get all nine innings for you, at least
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 2: at the plate, So keep that in mind. Plus you
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 2: get them facing an A's bullpen. That's not that great
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 2: Arizona at Seattle. Seattle is returning on from the road
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 2: and they went to Kansas City and the a So
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 2: the final leg of the journey not too bad. But
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 2: they swept the A's. They overtook the A's to take
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 2: first place in the Al West. That's pretty big, dude.
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: The only way they were gonna be able to overtake
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 2: first place was by sweeping the A's, and they did
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 2: that another half game above them. I do think Seattle
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 2: is probably the best team in this division, but they're
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: below five hundred. Still, every team is, but I think
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: they could be in a letdown spot. That was a
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: big divisional series, dude, big sweep to take first place.
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: Now they're returning home and playing an interleague game against Arizona.
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: I don't like that for Seattle. I think it's a
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: bad spot, letdown spot, distracted spot. I think it's a
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 2: negative spot for Seattle, so I do not want to
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 2: play Seattle in this game. Arizona is continuing a road
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: trip and they've been hot. They've won five games in
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 2: a row, and they've won ten of their last eleven games.
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 5: I think is what this is.
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: Arizona's pretty on fire right now, dude, and they're actually
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 2: ahead of San Diego now they must have a tie
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: breaker again San Diego in the NL West there.
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 5: For second place in the NL West.
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 2: Kind of surprised by that because I don't really like
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 2: Arizona's pitching much at all, but they might ride that
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: momentum into this series.
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 2: I think it is a better spot for Arizona here,
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 2: continuing on the road, I don't really like Arizona's bullpen,
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 2: even though they're ranked third in whips, so I guess
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: I can't argue about that that much. Whether Era is
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: still in the fours, so I don't think they're actually
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: the third best bullpen, but I guess they're a decent bullpen.
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 2: I think Seattle's just better, even though they're down at seventeenth.
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: Their bullpen, Erra is like a run better, so I
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: think I prefer Seattle's bullpen. Both these teams are off yesterday,
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 2: by the way, so the bullpens aren't rested here. Hitting wise,
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 2: Arizona's moved way up recently.
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 5: They're at tenth. They've been hitting well.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 2: Seattle is where are they They're in the middle of
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 2: the pack somewhere. Yeah, they're fifteenth, So both offenses. You know,
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 2: I've been starting to do a little bit better here.
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 2: Ze Gallon is pitching for Arizona. He hasn't been great.
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: Four point eight ERA, one point four to four WHIP.
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 2: He's been bad on the road seven point two to
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: five ROADI Ray has been way worse on the road,
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 2: more than four runs worse on the ERA. But he
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 2: is pitching in a pitcher friendly Seattle stadium here, so
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: that should help. You would think.
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 5: He hasn't been pitching that well this month.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 2: He has a very evil six point six six ERA
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 2: this month, with more than one hit a lout per inning,
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 2: with way too many walks almost one every two winnings,
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 2: not quite but close, and fewer than one strike up
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 2: per inning. That's kind of been what he's done all season.
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: He's allowed more than one hit per inning as well,
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: which is not good. The walk rate is kind of
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 2: high and the strikeout rate is definitely too low for
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 2: a guy like him, right, I think he used to
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 2: have better strikeout stuff in the past. Not good. I
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 2: don't think I really trust Gallon here man, although his
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 2: numbers against Seattle are actually quite good and forty six
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 2: at bats one fifty two average allowed five six so
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 2: ps twelve to four strikeout walk ratio, so there are
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 2: some positives for Gallon, but I worry about his current form.
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 2: I worry about his road numbers. George Kirby is pitching
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 2: for Seattle. He's been pretty good three point five four ERA,
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 2: one point two to one whip, A little bit worse
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 2: at home, which is kind of surprising, three point seventy
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 2: nine homy ra. Not that much worse than he is
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 2: on the road, though, Seattle being a pitcher friendly park,
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 2: Kirby has been in pretty good form this month. He
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 2: had one shaky outing against San Diego, but he's got
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 2: twenty one strikeouts five walks this month. However, he's allowed
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 2: more than one hit per inning twenty seven and twenty
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: three to two thirds inning, so that's not great. Over
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: the course of the season, he's allowed fewer than one
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 2: hit per inning by a little bit his walk rate
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 2: is pretty low. His strikeout rate is not high though,
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 2: but he's been a big ground ball pitcher this year,
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 2: which is decent, I guess, and his strikeout rate you'd
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 2: like to see it a little bit higher than that
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 2: against what are we talking about? Who are we talking
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 2: about here? Arizona. He's got a small sample size against them,
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 2: but good numbers. In thirteen at bats, they only have
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 2: two hits against him, no extra base hits, only five
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 2: of their hitters have ever faced them. He's telling them
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: to a one to fifty four batting average three oh
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 2: eight ops, four strikeouts, no walks. So good numbers from
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 2: Kirby here against Arizona. Based on the matchup numbers, you
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 2: could definitely make an argument for the under in this game.
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 2: And the bullpen's are rested, and I guess I wouldn't
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: necessarily want to exclude either bullpen here. The money is
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 2: indicating that way. We have seventy seven percent of tickets
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 2: on the over. That's total seven So the Osburgers are
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: telling you this is gonna be a low scoring game
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 2: thirty four percent or excuse the sixty six percent of
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 2: the cash on the over as well, So the less
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: of the cash than the tickets, so the money is
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 2: kind of indicating towards the under here.
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 5: I agree.
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 2: I think that probably would be the way I would
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 2: attack this game I was gonna play it, I would
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 2: lean under in this one. I kind of lean towards
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 2: Arizona as well. It seems like the money's coming in
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 2: that way. On the money line, at least Seattle is
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 2: a minus one fifty something favorite. I don't know if
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 2: they deserve to be that on the road of the
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 2: or excuse me, you know, a road trip returns spottled though,
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 2: I think Kirby probably is the better overall pitcher than Gallon, though,
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, we see the numbers. I think that is
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 2: the case, and I like Seattle's bullpen better, so I
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 2: think matchup wise, yeah, Seattle does have some advantages there. Situationally,
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 2: they don't uh sixty six percent of tickets around Seattle
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 2: fifty the cash on Arizona. Excuse me, I could see
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 2: the arguments for it, and I think at least Arizona's
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 2: pitching might match up well enough that it might be
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 2: you know, I could see the argument for taking a
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 2: shot with Arizona at a decent underdog price there, and
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 2: maybe you could even do a split bet run line
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 2: money line and take them plus one a plus. It's
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 2: a low totals that means the underdog might stay in
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 2: the game. A plus one run line like make your
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 2: own is what I meant. But yeah, because a low
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 2: total that means the under has a better chance to
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 2: stay in the game. But I think under is still
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 2: my preferred approach in that game. Apple TV has the
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 2: last game, Philadelphia and the Dodgers, which is gonna be
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: one of the big weekend series.
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 5: Two big markets here.
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 2: Dodgers have the way better record, but as I've been
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 2: pointing out, Philly is not as bad as the record looks.
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 2: But the Dodgers are staying at home. They just swept Colorado.
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 2: I really don't even know if they're gonna consider that
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 2: to be a big deal. They've won five games in
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 2: a row now, they've won seven of their last eight,
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 2: and actually they won They've won a lot of games recently.
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 2: I think they've won.
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 5: Twelve of their last fourteen games.
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: Dodgers were playing some good baseball right now, but of
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 2: course they're the best team in baseball, and they have
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 2: such starting pitching depth that they can overcome all these
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: starting pitching injuries like they did last year, and then
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: last year going into the playoffs, their starting pitchers were
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 2: healthy again and rested because they missed a huge chunk
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 2: of the season. I almost think the Dodgers do that intentionally.
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, Glasnow is hurt again. Snell is hurt again,
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 2: like they want to get them a little bit of action.
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 5: Earlier in the season.
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 2: Then no, yeah, they're hurt again. And then if I
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 2: was the Dodgers, what I would do is I'd bring
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 2: them back late in the season, get them a couple
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 2: of starts towards the end of the season so they're
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 2: ready again.
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 5: Then you got them in the playoffs, you know what
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 5: I mean.
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 2: Philly is already out on the Pacific coast, so they're
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 2: not traveling that far here. They just swept San Diego.
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 2: The games were pretty close. Philly's pitching was good in
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 2: that series. Now or San Diego's offense is not good though,
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 2: and it is a pitcher friendly park. Philadelphia is stepping
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 2: up in class though to face the Dodgers, especially offensively.
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 2: The Dodgers' offense is like in a different league than
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 2: San Diego's. Right now, both teams were off yesterday. I'm
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 2: pretty sure. So we have rested bullpens. The Dodgers' willpen
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 2: has been excellent. They're number two in WHIP, but I
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 2: think they might be number one in bullpen era. They've
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 2: been a really good bullpen. Philly's bullpen has been okay.
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 2: They're fourteenth, so not too bad. Dodgers have the number
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 2: one offense. That's where the bigger gap this year. Philadelphia
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 2: is twenty seven, so Philly has definitely struggled on the
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 2: offensive side of things. Zach Wheeler is pitching for Philly,
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 2: and you look at the starting pitching matchup, you might think, hey,
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 2: this is actually a good starting pitching match and for Philly,
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 2: and yeah, Zach Wheeler, he's basically their ace again. Well,
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 2: Christopher Sanchez has been so good you gotta consider him
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 2: to be their ace now. But they basically have two
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 2: aces because Wheeler has been their ace for so long
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 2: and he's still pitching like it since he's come back
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 2: from injury. He's got a one point six to seven
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 2: e RA and point eight to WHIP. That's all good.
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 2: He's been good on the road as well, even better,
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 2: one point four to ROADYRA. He's made six starts so far,
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 2: and he's been really good in all of them pretty much.
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 2: He's allowed three or fewer earned runs and all of
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 2: them two or fewer. In all but one. Philadelphia has
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 2: won all six of those games, and he's picked up
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 2: a winning four of them. He has a thirty six
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 2: to eight strikeout walk ratio on thirty seven to two
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 2: thirds innings, twenty three hits allowed. All of that is good,
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 2: and only one of them run a low. His numbers
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 2: are really good across the board. However, the Dodgers have
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 2: done a lot of damage against him in the past.
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 2: They have one hundred and thirty five at bats against him,
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 2: and a lot of it is Freeman and Rojas. They
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 2: have a ton of at bats against them, but these
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 2: guys have hit him well.
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 5: He's got bad numbers against the Dodgers.
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 2: Three to eleven batting average, nine to seventy ops, thirty
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 2: six strikeouts, twenty eight walks, but fifteen of those walks
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 2: of Freddy Freeman. Freeman has absolutely destroyed Zach Wheeler. So
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 2: I guess if you want player props, Freddy Freeman, even
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 2: though you're probably not getting that much value on a
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 2: guy with his name recognition, hits plus runs pluss RBIs
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 2: you're probably looking at over too.
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 5: You might even be looking at two and a half.
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 5: I don't know what you're looking.
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 2: At for a number there, but he's twenty one for
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 2: fifty four with two of them runs, four doubles, fifteen walks,
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 2: and twelve strike cuts against Wheeler. Wheeler has a lot
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 2: of problems with him, but that does skew these numbers
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 2: because like, basically one guy is doing a ton of
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 2: damage to him, but some of these other guys fit
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 2: him well as well, So I don't like the matchup
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 2: for Wheeler here. Justin Robleski is pitching for the Dodgers.
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 2: He's been good uh three point zero seventy RA one
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 2: point one one within, but his numbers are starting to regress,
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 2: which I think is expected because he's kind of a
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 2: junk pitcher who was overperforming. He's been a little bit
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 2: worse at home three point three to eight homye RA.
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 2: Two of his last three starts have been kind of ugly.
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 2: He's allowed five plus earned runs in each of them,
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 2: but he went pretty deep still into both outings, and
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 2: still his strikeout walk ratio this month isn't that bad.
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 2: Sixteen to five, he's allowed a little bit more than
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 2: one hit per inning. Here, he's facing the Phillies, who
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 2: haven't been that great of an offense so far. Robleski
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 2: has a really low strikeout ray, but his walk rate
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 2: is pretty low and his hit rate is pretty low,
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 2: so he's not striking guys out, but he's just not
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 2: putting guys on base. However he's doing that, I don't know,
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 2: because he's not a ground ball pitcher either. He'll be
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 2: going up against the Phillies here. The Phillies have an
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 2: eight hundred batting average off him in a twenty four
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 2: underd ops but it's only in five at bats, but
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 2: they're four for five off them, with a Bryce Harper
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 2: double and a Brandon Marsh home run off him. I
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 2: know it's a small sample. You don't want to read
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 2: into that too much, but this game is almost it's
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 2: looking like an over to me, even though we have
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 2: rested bullpens the starting pitchers. I know that sounds insane,
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 2: and the money's coming in on the under because both
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 2: pitchers have had good seasons. Sixty two percent of tickets
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 2: on the over, fifty one percent of the cash on
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 2: the unders. The money's hitting the under total of eight.
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 2: But both starting pitchers have some kind of bad matchup
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 2: numbers here, man, So I don't know if I like that.
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 2: So I think I might lean over more than anything
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 2: else in this game. But you have to worry about
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 2: good bullpens. You got to worry about the offense is
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 2: being cooled off that type of thing. Of course, I
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 2: don't really want to fade Wheeler, even though I know
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 2: he has bad matchup numbers here. I'm not jumping out
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 2: of my seat to go fade him when he hasn't
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 2: had a bad start yet this entire season. Maybe it'll
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 2: happen here against an elite offense, but still, uh, the
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 2: Dodgers are a minus one twenty favorite here, sixty tickets,
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 2: forty one percent of the cash. So the money is
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 2: fading the Dodgers here as well, money coming in of Philly,
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 2: and I can understand it. I mean, Wheeler versus Robleski
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 2: looks like it is a pretty big edge to Philly,
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 2: but I just showed you in the matchup numbers it's
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 2: not as big of an edge as you think. So
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 2: that's those are my thoughts on on baseball here today, man, oop, Sorry.
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 5: Stacks, what's up, man, what's going on?
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 2: Stacks? By the way, I believe Stacks Correct me if
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 2: I'm wrong, but I believe Stacks had owned Benjamin come
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 2: to his farmstead there and they did what did you
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 2: guys do? You did some videos, some podcasting. I don't
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 2: know what you guys did there, But that's that's a
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 2: big deal. Man, Owen the giant coming to your coming
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 2: to your farm there. Hell yeah, dude, all right, Wnba,
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 2: this will get a little bit easier to talk about here.
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 2: This is gonna be a long show today though, unfortunately,
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 2: because I just been an hour and almost two hours
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 2: just trying to do baseball, which I usually get it
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 2: done in an hour and a half. I don't know
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 2: why I'm taking so long this time, Wnba. We have
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 2: four games here. I don't really like this card. We
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 2: have our board, we have Phoenix at New York. These
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 2: teams just played each other, and I lead to the
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 2: Liberty in that one because they played some bad games recently.
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 2: They bounced back. They got the win. I think they
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 2: covered as well, So a good game for the Liberty.
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 2: But now, does it mean this is going to zigzag
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 2: back towards Phoenix. I mean it might the Liberty had
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 2: one really good quarter in that game in the third
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 2: to get them that game in that cover, and I
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 2: was correct, they covered. They covered the minus four and
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 2: a half. The one big outlier here is the Liberty
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 2: hit forty seven percent of their three pointers, but they
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 2: did have more field goal attempts as well, But so
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 2: they're they're probably going to regress from three point range
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 2: like that was just a crazy three point percentage. They
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 2: also hit one hundred percent of their free throws, which
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 2: is unlikely to happen again. And Phoenix went to the
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 2: line more but missed eight free throws and only shot
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 2: sixty four percent, so they might get a little bit
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 2: better from the three throw line. And the rebounds were even,
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 2: so there are some indicators of maybe some regression coming
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 2: for the Liberty here, and the Liberty they have not
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 2: played up to their talent level though I think they're
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 2: one of the better teams in the league, but they're
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 2: only at four and four. But I would lean to
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 2: Phoenix here. I think the regression and you know, in
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 2: positive regression, looks like it kind of looks like it
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 2: would indicate towards Phoenix in this game. From what I
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 2: just showed you the Liberty don't have a big game
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 2: up next though it's against Toronto, like who cares an
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 2: expansion team. But I think Phoenix might be able to
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 2: make some adjustments here. That's kind of the idea. What
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 2: the zig zag is that the team it didn't play
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 2: well the previous game, especially if there are some outliers
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 2: in there, that team tends to play a little bit better.
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 2: I would lean to Phoenix here plus the points, and
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 2: you're getting five and a half now. It actually opened
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 2: six and a half and it closed four and a
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 2: half in the previous game, so you're getting a little
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 2: bit of line value on Phoenix two.
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 5: After that last game, looks like the line got skewed a.
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 2: Little bit towards the Liberty for no reason other than
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 2: that they had a good third quarter and hit a
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 2: bunch of threes.
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 5: The money seems to agree with me on this.
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 2: Sixty three percent of the tickets and only fifty six
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the Liberty. So I would
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 2: agree with taking Phoenix in that one plus the points.
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 2: The Mercury owns coming on June third, Hell yeah, so
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 2: he's gonna be on your show and doing some farming
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 2: with you, right, because you guys both live on farms.
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 2: You guys both operate farms. Hell Y, Washington is hosting
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 2: the La Sparks Here. Washington's returning home from a long
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 2: road trip. They've been on the road for as for
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 2: two weeks, so that's a long road trip. They went
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 2: all the way out to the Pacific coast too, So
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 2: you know what I talk about. When a team goes
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 2: on the road and they come back home, I think
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 2: it's a bad spot. They've only had one day off too.
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 2: I don't like that, so they come home, I think
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 2: it tends to be a distracted spot. You got to
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 2: get back to home life. This is not a particularly
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 2: good Washington team either, so I might be looking to
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 2: fade them here a couple two of their three wins
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 2: this year or against expansion Toronto and against Seattle is
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 2: not good this year. So I don't think the Washington
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 2: is a particularly good team. So right away, negative spot,
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 2: bad team, distraction spot, looks like you may want to
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 2: look to fade Washington here. LA is coming in off
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 2: a nice win, though I gave out LA in that
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 2: game that was a winner for us on the show. Here,
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 2: they upset Vegas in their last game after I think
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 2: upsetting Phoenix in the previous game too, they caught Vegas
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 2: in a really good spot on the return home spot,
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 2: which of course that is where they're catching Washington this time.
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 2: But after that win over Vegas, which was a revenge
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 2: win as well over the returning champs from last year,
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 2: I don't think this is a particularly good spot. And
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 2: LA is having to come from Las Vegas all the
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 2: way to Washington and this will be their first This
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 2: is gonna be the first time they're playing further east
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 2: than Phoenix this season, so I don't like that either,
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 2: first time to the Eastern time zone this year. So
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 2: I think it's also a negative for LA. So I
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 2: don't like the spot. So I can't really play the
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 2: game other than you know, if you think it's a
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 2: negative for both teams, you could maybe look over in
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 2: the game. That's that's kind of what I you know,
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 2: that's kind of my idea, is that's.
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 5: What you want to do. Oh, this is the first
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 5: game listed on the on this board here.
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know why the money is coming in towards
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 2: the away team LA, which I agree with. I mean,
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 2: you're looking at oh that's on the money line. Hold
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 2: on on the spread. It's actually coming in a little
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 2: bit on Washington, but I disagree with that. They're minus
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 2: two and a half right now. The money's coming in
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 2: a little bit on them to drive that lineup. But
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 2: fifty three percent of tickets fifty percent of the cash
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 2: on Washington, so Washington is getting a little bit of
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 2: the money. But I think I would lean towards fading
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 2: them in this game. And the money is also on
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 2: the under under one sixty seven and a half. I
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 2: don't I don't know if I agree with that, but
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 2: a lot of money has driven that total down. Fifty
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 2: six percent of tickets on the over, sixty six percent
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 2: the catch on the under usually in a bad spot
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 2: that I think it affects defenses more so I don't
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 2: I tend to lean over, but I don't really do
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 2: anything with WNBA totals, so I think I would lean
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 2: la on the side, though, but I don't like the
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 2: spot for either team, so staying away from that one
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 2: as well. Minnesota at Chicago. This is gonna be a
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 2: repeat matchup of earlier in the season where Chicago beat
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 2: Minnesota at Minnesota, so this is a road revenge spot
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 2: for Minnesota here Chicago. I don't think they're gonna overlook
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 2: the game though. That's one problem I have with this.
• 1:52:36
  Speaker 2: So Chicago did beat Minnesota at home earlier, which is
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 2: a big win. Minnesota is one of the best teams
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 2: in the league last year. They're good again this year,
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 2: although their best player, Collier, is still hurt for another
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 2: probably week or more right now. But now Chicago, they
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 2: actually it's not quite revenge because they've actually played Minnesota twice,
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 2: so my mistake, so it actually might be a zigzag
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 2: spot in favor of Chicago here.
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 5: So my apology, jeez.
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 2: Because Chicago actually did suffer the road revenge already. Minnesota
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 2: got them back on May twenty third, Minnesota went into
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 2: Chicago and beat them. So the road team is won
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 2: each matchup so far in the season series. It's been
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 2: a zigzag so far. So that might actually indicate towards
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 2: Minnesota this time here, or no, that might.
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 5: Indicate towards Chicago.
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 2: Excuse me, because they lost at home to Minnesota two
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 2: games ago, and then coming up that game, they lost
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 2: to Toronto, which I gave out a lean on Toronto
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 2: in that game. It wasn't strong, but I thought Chicago
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 2: being in kind of a Minnesota sandwich here a juicy lucy.
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 2: I didn't really like it, especially yet juicy lucy. That
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 2: sounds more ridiculous for WNBA sandwich spot. If you don't
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 2: know what the juicy lucy is, it's a Minneapolis or
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 2: well it's I think it's Minneapolis and or Saint Paul
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 2: Creation where two different restaurants claim that they did it. First,
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 2: it's a cheeseburger where it's two patties that get mashed
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 2: together with cheese in between the two patties they get
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 2: and then it gets cooked with the cheese in between
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 2: the two so wody you bite into it, the cheese
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 2: explodes in your mouth. It's very gay, although it's called
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 2: the juice well, I don't know. I don't know juicy lucy.
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 2: If you're biting into a lucy, maybe that's not gay.
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 2: And it also totally scorches your mouth and ruins your
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 2: mouth because it's lava hot, like liquid hot cheese. Anyway,
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 2: Chicago might actually bounce back here man, because that was
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 2: a bad game they lost as a favorite against Toronto.
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 2: The previous game they were here at home and lost
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 2: to Minnesota. Minnesota got the revenge against them you gotta
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 2: go look at what happened in this game. Well, Chicago
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 2: shot pretty poorly in the game. The field goal attempts
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 2: were almost even, but Chicago shot thirty two percent from
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 2: the field. They also didn't shoot that well from three,
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 2: although they took way more threes, So it looks like
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 2: there might be some positive regression for Chicago shooting wise.
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 2: They might shoot better here, especially because Angel reeseism on
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 2: the team, and remember bringing their field goal percentage down,
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 2: So there might be room for some positive regression there
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 2: for Chicago shooting wise.
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 5: But I have some major issues with it though. Man.
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 2: Minnesota lost the turnover a battle by thirteen and still
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 2: won the game by double digits.
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 5: That's bad for Chicago.
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 2: Chicago had nine more free throw attempts and hit six
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 2: more free throws and still lost by ten. That's not good.
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 2: And perhaps worse of all, Minnesota absolutely wrecked them on
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 2: the rebounds fifty four to twenty eight. That is not
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 2: something I would really necessarily want to fade here. Minnesota,
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 2: They're coming into this game of a nice win over Atlanta,
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 2: and they did beat Chicago in the last game the
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 2: game prior to that, so I still think the situation
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 2: does set up for Chicago. There is some room for
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 2: regression there positive regression shooting wise, but there are a
• 1:55:55
  Speaker 2: lot of things that indicate that Minnesota dominated that game,
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 2: so I don't really love it that much. Minnesota is
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 2: also a good deep mense, so it's not totally out
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 2: of character for them to have their opponent not.
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 5: Shoot well, you know what I mean.
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 2: Some of that is because Minnesota's deep beense is good,
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 2: so I'm gonna stay away. I will slightly lean towards
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 2: Chicago here plus the points, but I don't love it.
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 2: Minnesota sixty six percent of tickets, sixty percent of the cash.
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 2: They're laying four and a half, which is about what
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 2: they were laying in the previous game as well. So
• 1:56:25
  Speaker 2: the osbeggers are telling you Minnesota is the better team
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 2: even without call here. Once she comes back, they're gonna
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 2: be a top team in the league. But yeah, even
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 2: right now, they're laying points on the road, but the
• 1:56:35
  Speaker 2: money is indicating towards Chicago. I will agree slightly. Atlanta
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 2: at Portland is the last game. This is a complete mismatch.
• 1:56:45
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is one of the better teams in the league,
• 1:56:47
  Speaker 2: even though they have Angel Reees. So I don't like.
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 5: She's a good rebounder though, but she's a terrible offensive player.
• 1:56:55
  Speaker 2: Portland is an expansion team, and I know they're five
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 2: and three, which isn't bad, but I mean, what have
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 2: they done?
• 1:57:02
  Speaker 5: I don't know, man.
• 1:57:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, they've beaten Connecticut twice, They've beaten Toronto.
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 5: I mean, I know, they've beat New.
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 2: York twice, which is crazy, but the Liberty have really
• 1:57:10
  Speaker 2: been struggling so far. So I don't know. I'm not
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 2: really that impressed by what Portland has done so far here,
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean, Like three of their five
• 1:57:21
  Speaker 2: wins are against bad teams. Portland is staying at home.
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 2: They did just beat us, and they should not have
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 2: even won that game, as I already lamented on the show,
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 2: Connecticut just stopped scoring at the end of that game.
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 2: Do Connecticut was winning by five with eight minutes to
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 2: go in that game, and they lost by ten and
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 2: didn't even cover the six and a half for us.
• 1:57:40
  Speaker 2: Come on, man, Connecticut scored two points over eight minutes
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 2: right near the end it or over seven minutes whatever,
• 1:57:47
  Speaker 2: right near the end of that game. Unacceptable, completely unacceptable,
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 2: absolutely insane. So and then Connecticut only hit won three
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 2: in the game. There were some major major outliers in
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 2: that game too. Portland is not as good as they
• 1:58:02
  Speaker 2: looked in that game, so I don't like it for
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 2: that reason. However, they're gonna get up for a game
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 2: against Atlanta. You know you're gonna get up for a
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 2: game against the team. It's one of the better teams
• 1:58:10
  Speaker 2: in the league. You know, like, you're not gonna overlook Atlanta,
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 2: but Atlanta might be too much for them.
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 5: Atlanta is coming up that loss at Minnesota.
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 2: That was a big game, but they lost by double digits,
• 1:58:21
  Speaker 2: so they may be kind of in bounced back territory here.
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 5: I don't have a strong opinion on this one.
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 2: This game is a hard one for me to figure
• 1:58:28
  Speaker 2: out because if you want Atlanta, you do have to
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 2: lay a lot of points on the road. Here a
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 2: nine and a half, and that's gone down from ten
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 2: and a half. Thirty eight percent of the tickets excuse
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 2: sixty two percent of the tickets are actually on the
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 2: underdog here, but it looks like it's a public underdog
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 2: on Portland. So sixty two percent of tickets on Portland,
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 2: I don't like that, But sixty four percent of the
• 1:58:48
  Speaker 2: cash on Portland as well. So Portland is getting more
• 1:58:51
  Speaker 2: of the money here. But to me, they look like
• 1:58:54
  Speaker 2: more of a public underdog though, and that is not
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 2: something I would want to deal with. Like it almost
• 1:58:58
  Speaker 2: looks crazy to get nine and a half points with
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 2: a five and three team against a four and two team,
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. So I do think Portland
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 2: might be a little bit public there as an underdog,
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 2: which I don't want. I think I would lead towards
• 1:59:10
  Speaker 2: laying it with Atlanta there, but I don't want anything
• 1:59:13
  Speaker 2: to do with it. And then we have hockey to
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 2: finish this off. Carolina has a chance to end the
• 1:59:19
  Speaker 2: series here and give us our Stanley Cup final matchup
• 1:59:23
  Speaker 2: that is probably already gonna happen. Carolina is a big
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 2: favorite here. Carolina has dominated this series. Dude, I think
• 1:59:29
  Speaker 2: they're gonna win. I think it is over here, but
• 1:59:31
  Speaker 2: I don't want to play. I don't want to put
• 1:59:33
  Speaker 2: money on it. You're laying a huge price.
• 1:59:35
  Speaker 5: For them here.
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 2: I've had a good read on the series. I gave
• 1:59:39
  Speaker 2: you guys a Montreal in Game one because Carolina was
• 1:59:41
  Speaker 2: coming off a ridiculous eleven day layoff and they started
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 2: out really bad. They had a horrible first period in
• 1:59:48
  Speaker 2: the game and that's why Montreal won. Since the first
• 1:59:51
  Speaker 2: period in that game, Carolina has absolutely dominated.
• 1:59:55
  Speaker 5: I know they only won a couple of the.
• 1:59:56
  Speaker 2: Games in the series three to two, but if you
• 1:59:58
  Speaker 2: look at the stats, as Aready pointed out, Carolina has
• 2:00:02
  Speaker 2: dominated every one of these games statistically, not even close.
• 2:00:06
  Speaker 2: Montreal has not even gotten to twenty shots on goal
• 2:00:09
  Speaker 2: in any of these three games. That is ridiculous. The
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 2: Carolina is stifling them defensively to that extent, not even
• 2:00:18
  Speaker 2: having to rely on Anderson that much to get the
• 2:00:20
  Speaker 2: job done. Although he shut Montreal out in the last game.
• 2:00:22
  Speaker 2: I think they had eighteen or nineteen shots in this
• 2:00:24
  Speaker 2: one they had. Montreal had twelve shots each in the
• 2:00:28
  Speaker 2: prior couple of games. That's not gonna get it.
• 2:00:30
  Speaker 5: Done, man.
• 2:00:31
  Speaker 2: And they had a nine in one game in the
• 2:00:34
  Speaker 2: first series against Tampa Bay, which is and they won
• 2:00:38
  Speaker 2: that game, which is ridiculous. Montreal should not have even
• 2:00:40
  Speaker 2: gotten through that Tampa Bay series. Dude, I'm sorry. Carolina
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 2: is clearly the better team. And you know, the whole
• 2:00:47
  Speaker 2: knock on Carolina was they can't win in the Eastern
• 2:00:49
  Speaker 2: Conference Finals. Yeah, but that was because they were playing
• 2:00:52
  Speaker 2: against Florida, who was like their kryptonite, and Florida was
• 2:00:55
  Speaker 2: a very experienced team. Montreal's not. Montreal's a young team.
• 2:00:59
  Speaker 2: Carolinas the way more experienced team that Ben here. They've
• 2:01:02
  Speaker 2: done this before, and now that Carolina has won three
• 2:01:05
  Speaker 2: games of the series, obviously they have completely destroyed that
• 2:01:08
  Speaker 2: Eastern Conference Finals curse. It's so yeah, it's done, man.
• 2:01:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, Carolina is just playing really, really good, really
• 2:01:17
  Speaker 2: good hockey here. They did have an empty net goal
• 2:01:19
  Speaker 2: in the last game, but the score wasn't even misleading.
• 2:01:22
  Speaker 2: Carolina outshot Montreal forty four to eighteen despite being ahead
• 2:01:26
  Speaker 2: the whole game. Hits were even in Montreal won the
• 2:01:29
  Speaker 2: face off battle by a little bit, but still Carolina
• 2:01:32
  Speaker 2: has dominated offensive possession in this entire series. I don't
• 2:01:37
  Speaker 2: think they're gonna lose this game if they even if
• 2:01:41
  Speaker 2: they do, I think they're gonna win the series.
• 2:01:42
  Speaker 5: Now.
• 2:01:43
  Speaker 2: The one thing that you do have to point out
• 2:01:44
  Speaker 2: is that this line is high. Carolina was probably about
• 2:01:47
  Speaker 2: minus two twenty I think in the other home games,
• 2:01:50
  Speaker 2: So you're laying too much of a price for Carolina here.
• 2:01:52
  Speaker 2: In my opinion, Montreal has also still been a good
• 2:01:55
  Speaker 2: road team in the playoffs. There's still like seven to
• 2:01:59
  Speaker 2: three or something like that on the road straight up
• 2:02:02
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs. And Carolina's only playoff loss was at home,
• 2:02:05
  Speaker 2: but that was again an outlier because that was that
• 2:02:07
  Speaker 2: first game against Montreal where they were returning home from
• 2:02:11
  Speaker 2: or they were excuse me, coming off an eleven day layoffs.
• 2:02:13
  Speaker 2: So I think you put an asterisk next to that,
• 2:02:15
  Speaker 2: and that, by the way, Carolina has not lost in
• 2:02:18
  Speaker 2: the playoffs aside from that game, just pointing that out,
• 2:02:23
  Speaker 2: So I don't I'm not ready to say Carolina is
• 2:02:26
  Speaker 2: bad at home.
• 2:02:26
  Speaker 5: No, they're not, you know, in the playoffs.
• 2:02:29
  Speaker 2: But Montreal is better on the road in the playoffs though,
• 2:02:32
  Speaker 2: that is true. But Carolina has only lost that one
• 2:02:35
  Speaker 2: game at home. So yeah, I mean, I think Carolina
• 2:02:39
  Speaker 2: wins the game. I don't want to do anything with it.
• 2:02:42
  Speaker 2: The money is hitting them on the money line, even
• 2:02:44
  Speaker 2: though they're at minus two fifty, and the money's coming
• 2:02:46
  Speaker 2: in on them on the puck line as well. Eighty
• 2:02:49
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets, eighty five percent of the cash on
• 2:02:51
  Speaker 2: them on the money line on Carolina, similar money on
• 2:02:55
  Speaker 2: the spread as well on the puck line. I'm not
• 2:02:58
  Speaker 2: gonna go against it. I mean, if you are gonna
• 2:03:00
  Speaker 2: play Carolina, though, you gotta play the puck line. You know,
• 2:03:04
  Speaker 2: they've been so dominant in the series, they might be
• 2:03:07
  Speaker 2: able to do that anyway. I just I don't want
• 2:03:10
  Speaker 2: to do it, though, I don't the money's coming in
• 2:03:12
  Speaker 2: a little bit on the under as well, fifty five
• 2:03:14
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets on the over, fifty five percent of
• 2:03:16
  Speaker 2: the cash on the under. I can kind of see
• 2:03:18
  Speaker 2: the argument for that because Montreal's excuse. Yeah, Montreal's offense
• 2:03:22
  Speaker 2: has been stifled so badly by Carolina throughout this series.
• 2:03:26
  Speaker 2: And again, Montreal scored four goals in the first period
• 2:03:30
  Speaker 2: of Game one when Carolina came in rusty and since
• 2:03:32
  Speaker 2: then they're scoring has been completely in the trash. So yeah,
• 2:03:37
  Speaker 2: I mean under, I guess makes some sense under the
• 2:03:40
  Speaker 2: five and a half. I don't want to do that either, though.
• 2:03:42
  Speaker 2: When it's a three to one series like this, things
• 2:03:44
  Speaker 2: can get a little bit out of hand, out of control.
• 2:03:47
  Speaker 2: You might get some penalties, some power plays at the end,
• 2:03:50
  Speaker 2: some crazy crap, some empty net ors. I don't want
• 2:03:52
  Speaker 2: to deal with that. This game is a TNT true
• 2:03:55
  Speaker 2: Tvhrio Max. You know, watch it of course if you want. Yeah,
• 2:04:01
  Speaker 2: I still think maybe the way to do it is
• 2:04:03
  Speaker 2: still to just lean Carollina there.
• 2:04:04
  Speaker 5: But I don't want to play the game at all.
• 2:04:07
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it, man, Long show, dirty sock, what's up?
• 2:04:12
  Speaker 5: Thanks for hanging out.
• 2:04:13
  Speaker 2: I do not have a good feeling about this, Just
• 2:04:15
  Speaker 2: so you know. But my two plays today are the
• 2:04:17
  Speaker 2: first two games on the board over nine and a
• 2:04:20
  Speaker 2: half braves reds, and the other one is first five
• 2:04:23
  Speaker 2: innings under four twins Pirates. We're Jones and baby Jared Jones.
• 2:04:31
  Speaker 2: Let's go back to it, man, up against the taj mahal.
• 2:04:35
  Speaker 5: Let's do it man.
• 2:04:36
  Speaker 2: Hopefully it'll be a taj mahall of money that we'll
• 2:04:40
  Speaker 2: be bringing in with those up plays today. I don't know, man,
• 2:04:43
  Speaker 2: I don't think I have a good feel though. I
• 2:04:45
  Speaker 2: felt really discombobulated, like I did the handicapping mostly last night.
• 2:04:50
  Speaker 2: Then you know, some of the pictures change. I don't
• 2:04:53
  Speaker 2: have a sight that I can use anymore at all
• 2:04:55
  Speaker 2: right now, with the way the sites are with the
• 2:04:57
  Speaker 2: betting split, so I'm using that whatever the that site
• 2:05:00
  Speaker 2: is that I was just looking at tough going for me, man.
• 2:05:03
  Speaker 2: I might have to start buying odds logic and I
• 2:05:05
  Speaker 2: want to save my money, so I don't know that's
• 2:05:08
  Speaker 2: gonna do it. Learn it Toad on Twitter, learn it
• 2:05:11
  Speaker 2: to it on Instagram, check it all out. You can
• 2:05:13
  Speaker 2: subscribe to me on Twitter. You get in a group
• 2:05:15
  Speaker 2: chat with us, so it's not very active, but Jeffrey
• 2:05:18
  Speaker 2: asked questions in there sometimes or whatever. Jeffrey, come back
• 2:05:21
  Speaker 2: to the show man. You don't have to bet these things.
• 2:05:24
  Speaker 2: You can still listen to me, so you can check
• 2:05:27
  Speaker 2: that Twitter subscription out if you want to support me
• 2:05:30
  Speaker 2: that way. Obviously, like subscribe to the show here, tell
• 2:05:33
  Speaker 2: people about it. We're still on a good run here man.
• 2:05:35
  Speaker 2: Hopefully that can continue. Obviously there are gonna be downswings though,
• 2:05:39
  Speaker 2: so I'm expecting there might be some bad ones in coming,
• 2:05:42
  Speaker 2: but we'll see. Baseball has been really good this season
• 2:05:45
  Speaker 2: though surprisingly it's been NBA playoffs that have been my
• 2:05:48
  Speaker 2: weak points so far. NHL playoffs have gone well, you know,
• 2:05:53
  Speaker 2: WNBA has gone well, so whatever what else I have
• 2:05:57
  Speaker 2: to do?
• 2:05:57
  Speaker 5: Have to promote here.
• 2:05:59
  Speaker 2: We're on audio show as well, Apple Spotify Spreaker going
• 2:06:03
  Speaker 2: over there helps me out as well. Loser cast every
• 2:06:07
  Speaker 2: Tuesday night. You can check that out. You can find
• 2:06:09
  Speaker 2: that all this is in my link tree and the
• 2:06:11
  Speaker 2: g Spot Giants podcast. I presume I keep saying that
• 2:06:15
  Speaker 2: I know, I gotta talk to Ben. We should figure
• 2:06:18
  Speaker 2: something out. Man, get the season preview episode of that going.
• 2:06:22
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it. I appreciate everybody, thanks for hanging out.
• 2:06:26
  Speaker 2: Let's get these wins on these baseball totals. Hopefully peace.
• 2:06:33
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet.
• 2:06:35
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the flow. Your name steal mean
• 2:06:38
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for show. Put the glass down, baby,
• 2:06:45
  Speaker 1: look at me.
• 2:06:46
  Speaker 4: No, hold on, hold on nothing, hold on, hold on,
• 2:07:01
  Speaker 4: let me pull you. That bites hord, but it don't.
• 2:07:11
  Speaker 3: Get the crown.
• 2:07:14
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on and stay with me now