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NFL Week 4 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: is our Week four Tuesday NFL episode. I am Chad Milman,
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are coming
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: off a two and three week in our contest, folks.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: We talked about it on Sunday when we recorded this
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Sunday episode before Sunday Night Football, and as we said
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: on that show, a lot of lines we liked in
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: the moment have already moved. It's why you need to
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: listen to the Sunday show if you want to get
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: the best of the number. We also recapped all the
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: winds we left on the field Simon and I you
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: know that was a struggle. Today we will get to
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: our Simon says and our exec decision. Thursday, we will
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: do sharp calls, big Balls, Bet of the Week, and
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: the fox Hole. This episode will look at the entire
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: board as we begin narrowing down the five picks we'll
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: enter into the Favorites Podcast. One hundred thousand dollars Pro
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Football Pick Them Contest still open for sign ups, still
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: free to play, still awarding weekly and season long cash
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: prizes at favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. Now let's bring
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: in my co host, my bff, my companion, Mike Compadre,
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, listen. I mentioned the
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: two and three record. We talked a lot about this
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: on Sunday, so we're not going to rehash it, but
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: I do feel like we left some wins on the board.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: And then yesterday I was talking to Evan Abrams, who's
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: on the pod with us right now, you know, handing
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: us research as we go. We talked about the Cardinals
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: and like, I'm just I'm worried that we've been blindsided
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: by outside factors. Just in choosing these games. There's outside factors.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: The Cards are a great example that used to be
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: a no brainer pick for us. They were twelve point
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: home dogs getting no tickets and we didn't even discuss them.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: Talk to me, said, you sound like a guy whose
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: favorite teams ohe and three. You do? You sound like
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: you're freaking out. It's all good, brother, It's we're one
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: game down below five hundred. It's I'm not panicking yet.
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: This week people are gonna hate it. I love this
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: week so much or so many beautiful, beautiful, ugly home dogs.
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: So yeah, last week was a nice week for the public. Yeah,
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: not worried yet. When we go one and four, uh,
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: then you'll see me miserable. But we're still having an
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: zero five week, thank god. Yeah, still positive, brother, Like
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: we're still right there.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: I'm just confused. I feel like we've been making we've
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: been making bad decisions that are counter to the way
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: we used to make decisions. But we'll get to it.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: As a reminder of the Favorites podcast is presented by
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: bet three sixty five. Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: They believe that every sport should be epic every touchdown,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: every game, every point, every play, from the moments that
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: are legendary to the ones that fly under the radar.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: See for yourself when you sign up today with Code
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Action and you'll get three hundred and sixty five dollars
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: in bonus bets when you just one dollar. Whatever the sport,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet three six five,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: you must be twenty one or older. You must be
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia. If
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: you or someone you know has a gambling problem and
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  Speaker 1: wants help, call one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio,
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  Speaker 1: and Virginia or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. I gotta say I love that
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: bet three six five read. I feel like John Facenda
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: from NFL Films should be reading it in the beginning
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: because it's so it just has drama.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: The Cincinnati Bengals ended their season the same way that
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: they started it, with a die hard commitment. The Bengals
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: battle tenaciously.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, you can catch every episode of The
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: forget to give us a like. Subscribe to the Action
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Network YouTube page. Here's the contest update week three. In
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: the contest, we had two hundred and seven entries finish
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: five and oh. Our week three had a tie for
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: first place, so four winners will receive seven hundred and
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: twenty five dollars cash prizes. Those are Jesse Goldberg, Joel
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: d eighty one, Mister Sasner and R. J. Monroe, who
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: all went five to oh and nailed the tiebreaker, which
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: was longest Cincinnati touchdown, a fourteen yard Joe Mixon run.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: They're only TV congrats to all the winners. This week's
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Producer's Couple ward goes to t Floyd sixteen for finishing
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: dead fucking last and the Week three contests going to
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: er to five and missing the tie breaker by sixty
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: four yards. Email producer Matt Mitchell at podcast at actionnetwork
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: dot com claim your non cash prize thanks for playing.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Week four is live. The Monday night football tiebreaker is
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: New York Giants total penalty yards. Simon, here's the good news.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: In addition to being irrationally optimistic, as my wife has
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: described me, Justin Herbert is third in the league in
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: passing yardage. We have him at twenty five to one
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: to lead the league. Tyreek Hill is second in the
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: league in receiving yards. We have him at nine to
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: one to lead the league. In a preseason pod talking
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: about Rookie of the Year, Player of the Year or MVP, etc.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: I said, I like Jalen Carter to win defensive Rookie
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: of the Year at seven to one. You agreed, and
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: your logic partially I don't know if you remember this,
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: but I'm giving you kudos here was he's got a
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: lot of prime time games. Last night he had a
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: sack on Baker and then forced to fumblow on the
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: next play. One word for you, Simon narrative.
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and my number one rate at QB. All. I mean,
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: all offseason we kept talking about CJ. Stroud. Guess who
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: now is the favorite for Rookie of the Year Offensive
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: Rookie of the Year. CJ. Stroud so had some big
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: misses this year. I mean, I'll never take a bigger
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: l than this Denver Broncos team predicting them or are
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: the Bears like both them just terrible bets. But yeah,
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: the rookie is looking good, man, CJ. Stroud. I think
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: everyone's finally starting to see what we talked about the
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: last two weeks. It's just all the rookie quarterbacks. He
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: looks the most calm, poise in the pocket making good reads.
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I think CJ is down to plus three
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: point fifty offensive Rookie Year. Maybe it's a below it now.
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: So Robinson went from being number one to number two,
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: and you know, Richardson's not playing, so he's going to
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: keep dropping in that QB ranking in the Rookie of
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: the Year.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: All right, Listen, we got a lot of good stuff
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: to get to a lot of good games to talk about.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams has loaded us up with some trends and
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: some of them are going to be applicable to probably
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: the biggest game of the week. Let's start with the
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Thursday night game Detroit at green Bay. Green Bay at
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: that three six five right now as we speak, is
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: a one point underdog. This is a pro jows game.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Money in the Lions public on the pack. Lions made
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: a statement against the Falcons. I thought Jared Goff has
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: as many rushing touchdowns this season as justin fields. Also,
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: he's the most profitable quarterback the past five years, but
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: he's under five hundred outdoors.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: I really don't even know how to respond to that,
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: you know, I mean, I'm shocked by that. Yeah, this
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: is an easy bet. You always take green Bay at
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: home as a dog in this spot. If you're scared
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: of the number, there's a bunch of one and a
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: half's out there. Won't tease it up to seven and
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: a half if you're a coward, But I'll take the
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: one and a half Like this was two and a
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: half and the pros came in and just slammed it
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: down on one and a half. So a bunch of
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: books are showing one now. I can just see it
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: standing right around here, one one and a half. I
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: wish I could say it's not that big of a
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: deal one and a half, but me and Chad won
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: a bunch of money on that stains one and a half,
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  Speaker 2: so clearly it matters. So that's why that we always
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: talk about getting the hook even on one and a half.
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: Now it matters. So yeah, no brainer bet like SUCU
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: can't put in the contest. I love this number, love
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: Green Bay at Home golf outdoors. I still have a
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: bunch of questions about what Jordan Love is going to
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: be and all that, but it's all about the scheme.
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: Like they did nothing for three quarters and then once
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  Speaker 2: they got into a rhythm, which is what you need
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: with Jordan Love, he can make that offense go. So
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: you know they held out a bunch of starters this Sunday,
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: and you presume it's because they're going to have them
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: play this Thursday. You know that's a bigger game. A
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: Thursday divisional game is more important than an out of
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: division game against the Saints. So our hope here chat
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  Speaker 2: is we take this number. Those guys get cleared and
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: it gets bumped up to them being a favorite. So yeah,
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: definitely grabbed it one and a half if you can
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: still find it, grabbed the plus one.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: How oft the arbor bullying.
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to make lon of my own.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: God to be the back in the United States. I
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: just don't know what the world is going on. It's
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: the London game, Atlanta is playing Jacksonville. Hey remember on
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Sunday when we put the falcons in the context and
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: we had no idea why we still to this moment
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: have no idea why that was fun?
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, really stupid.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: What the fuck? What the actual fuck? A buddy of
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: mine texted me he felt so good in that moment.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: He felt vindicated because he has had the same conversation
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: with his buddies that he's gone into contests with over
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: the years, and he was so glad. The two people
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: who and I put this in there quote in theory
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: know what they're doing the same thing.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: That's why I'm so mad with myself, because I do
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: know better. I couldn't. I can't believe that happened. But yeah,
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: this week I'll pass it like I like the Jaguars.
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: I like them in London Trevor Lawrence. I went to
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: the tape. He's just there's little things that he's easy
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: and better correct and get and right the ship for
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: the Jaguars. So if you want to buy alone the Jaguars,
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: I think the public will just because Rider looks so bad,
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: you know, at that minus three number. I want to
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: take the Jaguars, but I'm not going to like. I
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: just don't believe in this team right now. If this
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: gets a three and a half four, maybe I'll throw
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: a penny when I wake up on this game. But yeah,
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: no interest in this game at all.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Maybe in honor of it being in London, you'll call
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: your English relatives and put down a shilling or maybe
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: a pence. That's it, all right, Well, listen.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know where you're where you're going with that,
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: but that's it.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: That's it. I was just making it.
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: I thought you were gonna say a pound, like an
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: actual thing, but you never went there.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Well, you said a penny, so I was going with
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: the smallest posh denomination of English money.
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: That's fair, thank you.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Ten pence, tenpence, sixpence, none the richer. Remember them, remember
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: that band? Listen, Evan Abram says, favorites of excelled in
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: international games. I don't want to spend too much time
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: in this game, but they are twenty nine to nine
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: and one straight up, twenty five and fourteen against the spread,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: So the Jags are probably the right side if you
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: want to play this, but you know, don't put anything
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: more than a farthing on Itly, shit, we got to
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: talk about this game. I think I was just stalling
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: because I didn't want to talk about the Bears in
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Denver right now. With that three sixty five, the Bears
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: are plus three. It has been at three and a half.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: There's probably some three and a half's out there, Simon.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: I did want to make this, Simon says, but no
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: one's gonna listen to me. This is even even though
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: I showed the people the results of them covering this number.
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: I still don't think people would bet the Bears team.
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: That's how bad they've been. So, yeah, you have to
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: take the Bears here. They're oh and three ats oh
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: and three on the season. This is a great number.
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: They're a home dog against a horrible team that, yes,
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: Denver is probably going to win in a last second
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: field goal. But we're getting the hook. We take the
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: three and a half here, So this is the definition
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: of pros versus jokes. Only only the professionals will be
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: on this Bears team. And you know a bunch of
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: people are going to take the easy look of just
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: putting Denver in their moneyline parlays or teasing through zero
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: and putting them in those teasers, like everyone's gonna just
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: take Denver just because you know the Bears are losers.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: I mean even Chad knows this, like you can't. And
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: what's happened with this team and Justin fields record, I mean,
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: like seeing that stat last night, Jaling Hurd. It's not
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: to make brag about be an Eagles fan, but seeing
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: the fact that these twenty one twenty and one straight
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: up and his last twenty one starts. I don't know
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: what Justin Fields is, but I think it was like
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: five and twenty three or five and twenty terrifying. How
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: much is just put on to this kid's shoulders. So
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: I'm hoping they had a week from hell last week.
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: This week it's just all football. It's all business again.
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: If it comes out this week and they're dealing more
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: bs and he starts talking about his coaches again, I'm out.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: I'm like I said last week, I'm off this bet totally.
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: But as you say here right now, I haven't heard
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: a peep from them. It's all football. I'll take the
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: three and a half.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Well, look, there's a lot of issues with this team. Clearly,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: I do think there's some correctible issues. If you look
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: at this Bears offense. Last year, they started to perform
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: well when they were getting Justin Fields out of the pocket,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: putting him in RPOs. They haven't done much of that.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: The receivers are not running very good roots, they're not
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: putting him in a position to succeed. They're leaving him
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: in the pocket. And the defense is JV. I mean,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: we've talked about this so much, but the Broncos defense
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: might be even less than JV. And which is the
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: surprising thing, because last year they were so good, right
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: the first eleven games, they gave up more than twenty
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: points once. Last year the first eleven games, if they
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: were averaging eighteen points a game, they would have been
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: like ten to one, do you know what I mean?
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: And so the fact this defense has fallen off a
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: cliff And as much as we love Sean Payton. A
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: lot of this is about coaching and discipline, Like this
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: team on third and fourth down has been creating really
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: stupid penalties and have not been able to get off
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: the field, like to the point where I think heading
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: into this past weekend, they were number one in the
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: NFL on penalties on third and fourth down. On the
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: defensive side of the ball, they are letting people run
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: all over them on screen passes. You saw what Washington
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: did against them. But this Diver team is just as
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: bad as the Bears.
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and we're just we're playing at.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Best thing we can say, And Russell Wilson Sean Payton
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: said it this week. He's got to get the calls
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: out faster. It's throwing off the rhythm of the offense.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: It's a tough one, but I'm with you. I'll take
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: the Bears at three and a half as soon as
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: I can find it.
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Very interesting game with the Baltimore Ravens visiting the Cleveland Browns.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: We talked about this game on Sunday night and the
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: game was at one and a half and you said
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: to me, who do you think we want to take here?
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: And I'm like, we want to take the Ravens now
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: the numbers at two and a half. That was the
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: right instinct for us. The wise guys have come in Baltimore,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: but the tickets are all coming in on Cleveland because
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: of what they did this past weekend. Deshaun finally looked
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: right and that defense is so dominant. But I think
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: and the Ravens losing the Colts. Ravens were in a
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: very bad spot against the Colts like Lamar as a
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: favorite six and fifteen as a favorite six, and oh
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: as an underdog. So this will be the first healthy
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: slash good QB. This Browns defense is faced if you
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: want to frame it in context. So I still like
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: the Ravens here.
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: Well, first glance, it was like I want to take
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: the Ravens after such a brad loss. But the fear
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: here is they have a lot of injuries Chad, and
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: that was on me, not last week, not factor Now.
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: I really didn't think it was gonna be that big
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: of a deal just because their scheme is so great
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: on offense and if it gets the plus three, how
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: do I not take it? But all the stuff everything
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: I look at this Cleveland team, that defense is unbelievable.
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: So it's really hard to know what's real and what's fake,
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: just because they they played against the Pittsburgh team that sure,
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: they're not as bad as we perceived, but they're not
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: that good, right They played against the Tennessee team that
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: we just don't think that's good. And they played against
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: the banged ub Joe Burrow in Week one, So if
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: you look through the numbers of the they're historically great
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: right now, like this defense has been incredible. This will
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: be their first real test right with the Ravens, So
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: I know they're banged up. But if I'm getting plus three,
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: like you just said, Lamar is a dog has been
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: good money. I think it's in his career. He's like
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: nineteen to five against the spread as a dog, So
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: I could be wrong. That's lofts on my head, but
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: I remember it being something really high like that. I'll
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: take a chat if against the plus three, I just
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: don't know if it's gonna be one of our five
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: best bets this week.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: The Ravens are nineteen and four against the spread in
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: their last twenty three games as an underdog. Yeah, nineteen
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: five as a dogs in twenty eighteen. A couple other things,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: and I want to ask you about this Browns defense.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: But number one teams that lost straight out as favorites
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: of a touchdown or more in their previous game. So
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: we're talking about Jacksonville, Baltimore, Dallas teams that were favorites
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: of a touchdown or more and lost straight up fifty
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: five percent against the spread the following week. Also divisional,
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: So this is relevant to the Miami Buffalo game and
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: this game. I asked Evan this last night because I
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: just assumed like you automatically want to play a division
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: favorite at less than a field goal. He had the
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: stat for me last night, home team less than three
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: point favorites in the division last twenty years forty six
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: percent against the spread, which is interesting to me because
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: Cleveland and Buffalo are like that. And what's interesting is
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: I like Baltimore and I like Buffalo, and we're going
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: to get to Buffalo. But here's one thing, and it's
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: about those two games as well. You said this on
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: Sunday night. Miami's offense is kind of like the matrix.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: Cleveland's defense is kind of like the matrix. And so
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: what you just said is really interesting because we're talking
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: about how do you measure what you're seeing on the
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: field and what the stats are showing you about this
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: Cleveland defense with all of the history that we're seeing,
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: both specifically about Lamar Jackson, the Ravens and teams in
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: this spot.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: I honestly, the Cleveland defense thing is like something we
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: were all on early in the year. Like we loved
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: their D line, we loved everything about it. The shocking
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: part is how good their secondary is. Like that's something
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: I didn't see becoming one. So Jim Schwartz, I knew
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: that they'd be improved under him. It's incredible how good
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: they are charts. That's why I love this game because
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: it's like this is a real test for this team.
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: Even again, even though that the Ravens are banged up,
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: still a great offense and if there's a defense that
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: can shut it down, they've built it, like the Browns
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: have built this defense that it's kind of like the
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: Jets defense that shut down Josh Allen. It's they have
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: so much speed on the edge, and they have so
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: much push in the middle from the d tackles. These
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: these mobile quarterbacks that want to get out and move
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: out of the pocket. It's not gonna be able to
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: do it against the Browns team. So I can't wait
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: to see what they're gonna do against Lamar because they
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: pretty much designed this defense for him, honestly, like they
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: didn't design it for Joe Burrow, they didn't design it
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: for Kenny Pickett in this division. They designed it to
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: stop Lamar with the athletes that got up front. So yeah,
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: right now, Miles Garrett, you know a lot of these
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: defensive players will have one good game, that one bad game,
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: you know, one off night whatever. He has not had that.
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: If you go through and watch his tape from these
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: past three games, he is the best player in football
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: right now. The defensive position. Every everything the other team
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: does is centered around how do you stop Miles Garrett?
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: And he's still I think getting a sack per a
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: game right now. So it is incredible stuff everything we've
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: seen from this Browns team. So yeah, I love that
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: we broke them down. I think it was week one
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: right film session. Yeah, yes, there's just such a fun
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: team to watch if you're a film nerd, and yeah,
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: this is there's a bunch of great games this week.
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: This is one of them.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, So it seems to me we lean
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Baltimore two and a half. We hope to get the three.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: We went the three, but we don't know what we'll
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: do come Sunday.
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and if you're someone that likes the Browns, you
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: believe in them, grab the two and a half now, Like,
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: if you believe in this team, I got no issue
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: it because to me, this is like this is really
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: a tight line. I make it where it's got to
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: be one and a half too. It's right around it
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: all right.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati at Tennessee. Tennessee is plus two and a half.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: I feel like Tennessee is the right play here. They
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: just got blown out Cincinnati against the Rams when everyone
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: expected them to either have Joe Burrow. Not playing Rabel
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: as a home dog is like a core tenet for
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: our betting philosophy. The Titans just played one of the
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: best defenses they'll face all year in Cleveland. We just
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: finished talking about it. Averaged two point one yards per
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: play and only had forty five total plays. Like it
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: was a rough outing. To me, this is a get
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: healthy game against a team that you're getting a little
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: bit more value on the number because they just played
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: prime time in one.
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would love the three, but this is a
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: no brainer. I thought you're gonna make your executive decision. Like,
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: maybe you're not because it's not a three yet, but yeah,
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: I can almost guarantee people as we sit here, I've
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: already bet this a bunch. This is going to be
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: one of our bets on Sunday. Like there's a lot
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: of stupid things I did last week, this will not
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: be one of the on miss Like, we're gonna have
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: Tennessee in there if it's at three, two and a half,
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: three and a half, like I'm hoping against the three
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: and a half. But yeah, love Tennessee and about bounce
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: backs against an offense that just does not look right,
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: like even watching that game last night, they just did
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: not look right. So this Tennessee team, after such an
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: embarrassing bad loss, Rabel's going to get his guys up
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: and ready for this game.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: I need a confirmation for Matt Mitchell right now that
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: he is going to remind us on Sunday morning at
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: some point that Simon said this will be one of
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: our bets on Sunday. Confirmed. Okay, thank you, Matt Mitchell.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: There's nothing else to say about this. Let's get I.
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: Don't need him for that, I need him to be like,
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: don't bet Atlanta plus three and a half, but that's
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: what we need him for. I don't know who that's
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: going to be this week, but that's what I need
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: him for.
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: We're going to get triggered by a game that we
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: have not talked about until the second we talk about it. Yeah,
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: I like Tennessee better, So I'm going with Tennessee as
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: my exec decision. I'm going with Tennessee plus two and
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: a half. Exac decision.
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: your owner's text to kill number? Executive decision?
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: Miami at Buffalo, This to me is fascinating. So I
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: bet this last night. I bet Buffalo minus two and
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: a half because the juice was moving in the direction
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: of three, and I figured if, like ultimately, I could
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: buy it if I had to. But the tickets are
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: on the fins. The money is on the bills. How
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: have you re rated the Dolphins in the past forty
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: eight hours?
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: Chilled out, took a breath when I woke up Monday
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: morning that the Bills was a professional about it, because
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: I was in my head like I wanted to fire
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: away right away. When I saw that number, I was
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: just like, I need to just relax. I still have
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: the Bills power rated above them. I know it's going
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: to piss off Dolphins fans, but I don't know what
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: you guys want from me. It's like I can't overreact
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: to what's happening. It's it's easy to be great in
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: September is what I always say. Like these months here,
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, the Dallas Cowboys fans just got a huge
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: dose of it. It's like you believe your team, you're
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: drinking the kool aid and then you'll come back to Earth.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: This is a perfect comeback to Earth spot for the
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: Miami Dolphins and their team. And if they win this,
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: you'll see me again on someday saying this team is
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: a glitch and the matrix. That's what they are. Like.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: They are neo, like they don't make sense, they shouldn't
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: be doing what they're doing, but they have the perfect scheme, players, talent,
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: and swag. Like that's what they have right now at
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: the highest level is like the confidence and the belief
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: in themselves. So they're running into a Bills team that
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: they've been that top dog, Like you want to have
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: confidence in swag. You're running into the team with the
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: most of it, and you were dead on the Bills
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: last week. Definitely missed that one. But it seems like
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: everything's clicking right now offensively for this Bills team. I mean,
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: gave Davis fully healthy, Digs fully healthy. They finally got
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: a kid and Cook the running back that just looks
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: like a stud. Like the kid I think got another
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: one hundred yards last week. It's all there for this
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: Bills team. And we saw last year Miami they were
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: like the slept on team last year, right, we were
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: all over them at home against the Bills and they
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: won that stupid game where I think the Bills had
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: like forty more plays, but they still lost the game
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: against Miami. Right, they don't. They're not sneaking up on
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: anyone this year. Like Miami's that team. Everyone's got them.
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: Most people I talk to have them powering above this
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: Bills team. So Evan's stat did scare me a little bit.
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I like the Bills here under a field
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: goal and I think this will close them plus three.
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: I just I could see the pros just hitting this
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: Bills number and they move it up the plus three
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: and the public will be more than happy to take
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: this plus three. So yeah, my opinion is take the
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: Bills here. But this is a really tough game to choose, Jed, I.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: Think we got to take the Bills. Like, there's there's
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: a lot of the Evans Stadt is the one thing
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: that's bugging me. But how do you not fade a
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: team that just scored seventy points? Do you know what
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: I mean?
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: And I would say that's why you don't fade it,
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: because they're that good. But yeah, I get where you're
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: coming from.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: You know, It's like and there's there's a couple of
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: different quarks. Like I was doing a lot of research
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: this morning.
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, you got a statt what a team does
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: the day after the game after they score seventy because
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: it only happened twice?
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: Well, I mean there's been how many times it happened?
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Like three times? You know. I was doing some research
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: this morning about the Bills defense and the Finns offense,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: so I asked Evan to follow up on this. The
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: Buffalo's defense gives up five point nine yards per rush,
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: which is the highest in the NFL, but teams have
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: only rushed the ball against them fifty six times because
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: everybody's always fucking trailing against the Buffalo Bills. Meanwhile, it's
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: got the second most sacks, they're allowing the third fewest
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: yards after the catch. And here's one thing that really
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: flipped it for me. Two is amazing. The Dolphins have
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: been the matrix Tyreek Kill is the cheat code. Two
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: has only been pressured on eight dropbacks, fewest in the
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: NFL this year, and he's going against the best pass
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: rush he's seen. I feel like the right the Bills,
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: if you can get the two and a half, get
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: it now, like it's gonna move. I'm looking right now
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: and it's literally I'm watching the Action Network lines. I'm
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: watching the lines in Action network dot com. It's moving,
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: so you gotta fucking get it.
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: Make it. Simon says, Then are we telling people they
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: got to grab it right now?
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: You gotta grab it?
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: When Simon do it, we do what s sim Bills.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: All right, I'm going to lose so much money going
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: against this Miami team, Chad, this is this is brutal.
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: Well you I want to tell you how much I'm
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: down going against them for the first three weeks. It's
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: it's a nice car, yeah, yeah, it's bad. Miami is
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: really good.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: They are really good. But this is like, this is
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: the game where you find out were you right and
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: you had bad spots? Are you wrong? And maybe you could.
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: Just the number one team in the a f C.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I've driven with you in your car and you
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: like nice cars. So when you say it's a nice car,
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: I got a feeling like it's a really nice car.
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah it hurts.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: Look the Eagles before the game last night, they were
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: at minus seven. Now they're at bet three six five,
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: they're at minus eight. I got no feeling for this
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: game right now. I think Jalen Hurts had his best
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: game last night. AJ Brown looked great, DeAndre Swift looked great,
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: DeVante Smith looked great. Like they you know, Jalen Hurst
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: made that pass towards the end of the half, got
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: him that touchdown when he was about to get hit. Like,
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: I don't have a strong opinion about this game.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it took the eight and a half. Like I
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: told people Sunday, I like the Commanders of the seven.
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: I like him even more now eight and a half.
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: But I'm gonna wait in here what the other pros
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: are doing on this game. This is a good spot
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: to take Washington. But maybe I need to go back
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: and watch more of Sam's tape. But total meltdown that
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: previous game. But another stat from our guy Evan, teams
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: who score three points are less previous week are fifty
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: seven percent ats next week. So that's seventy seven to
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: fifty eight and four. That's the Titans and the Commander.
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: So we already liked the Titans, probably end up liking
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: the Commander. So yeah, that's that's one of these games
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: I knew I wasn't gonna be and then when it
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: got to eight and a half, it's like, how do
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: I not grab that number? So don't know if will
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: be one of our five, but definitely definitely a sharp
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: call that I'll get this week. And see what the
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: guys you're saying about this number.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: I really don't get why people what people are seeing
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: in the Commanders. I know that that we talked about
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: Sam Howell. I think they got a little bit exposed
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: against the Bills and.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: Denver looks horrible, so like that gotta have to throw
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: that out too, right exactly.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: Maybe the Cardinals are better than we think, but still
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: it's the Cardinals. So this is a Philly team that
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: I think figured something out last night, and I think
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: they're going to be considerably better.
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: It hurts at home is he's like a covering machine
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: ats at home. So again, all fair points why this
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: probably won't be one of our five.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: This will not be This will not be one of
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: our five. Tampa Bay at New Orleans. New Orleans is
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: a three point favorite. Hey, a reminder, one of the
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: reasons we love our sponsor at bet three six five
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: is their early NFL payout offer. That's when your bets
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: get graded as a winner automatically if the team you
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: bet on has a lead of seventeen or more. So
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: people who bet the Saints this past weekend against the
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: Packers still cashed after they blew a seventeen point lead
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. That's living a sweat free life.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: I also don't think we're going to bet this game.
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: We don't really know who the quarterback is going to be.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: I thought, I thought, actually last night, Tampa Bay, they
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: played pretty well in the first half. Mike Evans had
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: a terrible.
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: Game, there's all Mike Evans.
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, until like literally he dropped a touchdown pass. He
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: dropped another couple.
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: Of three three third downs he had drops.
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, bet I felt bad for Baker because Mike Evans
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: is the reason they lost that.
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: Game pretty much. And you saw Todd Bowles. He has
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: always had an incredible run defense. And that Eagles team
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: we're talking about cheat codes that have front five. If
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: they're healthy, they're by far the best on football. It's
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: nine to close and Swift looks like the guy we
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: thought he was gonna be out of Georgia, like his vision,
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: all of it. So yeah, just a just a bad
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: spot for that Bucks team and the Saints team. I
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: already threw some on the minus three. I can see
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: you going up to minus three and a half minus
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: four if if car does get cleared. But like Chad said,
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: we don't know who the quarterback is, Like how we
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: how are we gonna put a lot of money in
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: real money on this game? So I'm right there with you, Chad.
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: We can keep on moving.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: Also, don't forget evan stat like the underdog in the
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: division games at this spot is more likely to cover.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: So there you go. By the way, you mentioned DeAndre Swift,
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: how about DeAndre Swift? And then the receiver whose name
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: I can't pronounce, who caught the touchdown pass from Jalen Hurts.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: They went to the same high school in Philadelphia.
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Saint Joe's prepp funny meme I saw going around
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: was Swift sanding next to Kelsey. People kept saying these
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: are who people keep talking about dating. That was fun.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: Oh and I know that's so funny. That's great, Hey, Simon,
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: make Little Caesars, the pizza sponsor of the NFL, part
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: of your game day, Simon. When you eat Little Caesars,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: do you feel better about the world in general?
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: Yes, Chad, I'm.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: Glad you do. So do I order online during our
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: pizza pizza pre game one hour before NFL games and
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: get ready for some football and fun. Choose your favorite
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: Little Caesars pizza or pick the toppings you crave. Simon,
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: if every slice of Little Caesar's pizza you ate gave
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: you an extra point on a teaser, how many slices
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: would you eat?
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: One hundred? Chad?
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: Either way, Simon, you're gonna win. And speaking of winning,
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: everyone scores with convenient delivery or our in store pizza
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: portal pickup, So grab some friends and enjoy a few
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: slices during the tastiest hour before kickoff. The other Spider
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Man meme game other than the Bearers and the Broncos
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: is Minnesota at Carolina. Carolina is a three and a
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: half point underdogar right now? Oh god? Because remember I
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: don't know how we ended up with Carolina and Andy
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: Dalton in our contest either.
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: Love it last week, love him again this week. It's
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: just Andy Dlton's nyes bras Bryce Young and you saw
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: last week that offense put up a lot of points
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: on the road in Seattle. Now they're playing against a
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: horrible Vikings defense at home, giving me give me the
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: three and a half every time, Like, who the hell?
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: How does the public come in on Kirk? I can't
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: believe this. They're coming in so heavy on Kirk. I
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: get it Carolina is horrible, but man, you're you're putting
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: a lot on Kirk. I don't know. That's just crazy.
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: It's minus three and a half, so uh, maybe I'm
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: stepping in it. But I want this so bad to
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: be one of our five just because people are gonna
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: hate it. But three and a half. Give it to
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: me every time. I love this number. Bet it all
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: day yesterday, bet at all today. I am shocked it's
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: still at three and a half.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you're stepping in it and I'm walking right around it.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: The Vikings went eleven and oh and once score games
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: last year. They've now lost four straight one score games
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: the playoffs.
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: Oh, the first playoffs.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, first three weeks of the year. The Rams looked
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: not so great last night. They struggled. The Colts have
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: continued to play better. I gotta say, I'm really impressed
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: with the two Eagles coordinators, whose teams are just much
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: much better and better coach than we thought they would
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: be in both the Cardinals and the Colts. Has anything
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: about the coach changed your mind in the film you've
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: been watching, So you're coming closer to my side and
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: believing this is a better team than you think.
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: Nah, just lucky, lucky and situational. But I do think
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: they have good coaching. Like Richardson, I'm so happy I
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: ended up there. His future should be bright with this
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: coaching staff and everything. But yeah, that was the perfect storm.
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: Last week they played a banged up Ravens team in
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: the soaking rain. The Rams had a horrible game. They
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: only lost by three. Like Stafford looked really out of
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: sorts in that most of that game, they were kicking
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: tons of field goals not scoring points. Once again, wong team, Like,
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: you want to tease this with Green Bay seven and
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: a half against this Colts team, You can get this
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: right now with this Rams teams. You want to tease
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: it up. Love it, love this number at plus one
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: and a half. But yeah, I'm not going to get
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: back too heavy on it. This is another game where
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: I can just see a lot of pros beyond that
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: cold side, because I think they're thinking like Chad, like
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: they think this Colts team is better than people are projected.
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: And I'm in a weird spot where it's like I
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: had this teams over coming to the season and now
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: I got to talk bad about them. But I'm just
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: not trying to overreact and overhype to them having such
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: a flukey win against that Ravens team that past week,
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: Like there was just all these little calls too went
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: their way. Just just an incredible game by that Colts team.
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: And this would be what I call letdown spot for
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: this team coming home with Minshew. So if it's Minshew,
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: I'm all over the Rams. If it's Richardson, maybe I'll
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: pause there and think about this one, But yeah, I
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: like this Rams team in the spot.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: By the way, Sean McVay, you like him as a
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: bounce back eleven and six straight up and against the
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: spread on shore rest, covering seven of the last eight
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: games Pittsburgh get Houston. Houston is a three point underdog.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: We love this game. On Sunday night, there might have
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: been half a point difference. I think it might have
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: been three and a half. All the money and all
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: the tickets are on the Texans, and I still like it.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: I don't like Mike Tomlin as a road favorite.
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: It's a fine line between, you know, drinking wine and
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: squashing greats.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: I don't like this team coming off a big win.
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna cut you off because I laugh at that
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: all the time, Like that's what the hell we pay
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: to do.
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit inflated. It was inflated
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night. CJ. Stroud. Offensive rookie, that your favorite
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: right now, so he's getting a little bit more shine.
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: That does worry me. Most past attempts in the NFL
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: right now without an interception, CJ. Stroud. Justin Herbert, what
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: do you think of Houston at plus three right now?
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: Love it at three and a half, that'd be great
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: that gets back there. But yeah, I think you're right,
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: Like the public might be on to them now and yeah, yeah,
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: like you know, like I always joke on the show,
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: people like the shiny new toy, and that's going to
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: be CJ right this week, he'll probably be talked about
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: a lot. Just an incredible win for that Houston team
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: in a spot that they always win, right, So that's
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: why I'm not trying to overreact to that one where Pittsburgh.
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: I will overreact in the sense that Kenny look much
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: better against that Raiders team, Like he threw with confidence,
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: he stood in the pocket, he took big hits, just
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: pushing the ball downfield, which is exactly when I see
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: from Kenny after such a poor you know, first two games.
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: So three and a half, I love Houston Chad three.
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: I'm not as crazy about it because that means most
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: likely will be two and a half in our contest,
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: which is just as an ideal. So still love it.
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: I'm still right there with you. I just I trust
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: Tennessee Moore at two and a half in our contest,
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: and I went at Houston two and.
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: A half, all right, Las Vegas Raiders. I always love
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: when Jimmy Garoppolo is playing, and you'll get all these
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: graphics about how accurate he is, his years per attempt,
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: his winning records, and yet he's somebody nobody wants because
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: in the biggest moment, he's not accurate and not very good.
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: And what's interesting, he's not playing with a very good
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: coach right now. Look at Matt Lafleur and what he
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: did for Jordan Love to put him in a position
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: to win that game in regulation. Josh McDaniels, they're down
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: eight and he goes for a field goal to go
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: down five, Like, come on, man, this is basic math
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: at this point. Like, if you don't know the right
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: decision to make in this scenario to put your team
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: in a position to win, then you don't deserve to
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: be coaching in the NFL. You're not using everything to
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: your advantage. I like the Raiders at five and a
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: half here, though.
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: You want to like him even more because you can
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: get six.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: I gotta mention we were talking about Jimmy g he
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: did suffer a concussion on Sunday, because I think it's
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: the right spot for the Raiders. I don't care and
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: his backup is Brian Hoyer, who is smart enough and
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: takes I think more risks, like I think you're ceiling
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: with Brian Hoyer might be a little bit higher than
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: it is with Jimmy G. So I still love the
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: Raiders at plus six in the spot.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: That makes more sense why we've seen the number running
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: up now, because I really didn't. I was like, what
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: pros are coming in heavy on this Chargers team. So yeah,
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: that makes a lot more sense. If I didn't know
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: that Jimmy's they already they already officially said he's out
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: for this upcoming week.
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: No, no, no, it's just you know, I would imagine that.
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: He was okay. I mean the Chargers, we joke all
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: the time. If you ever get a team that can
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: be above a field goal against the Chargers, you just
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: take it. We have to take this. The Chargers can't
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: help but playing close, ugly games. I mean, their coach
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: has no rhyme or reason. The man the previous week
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: punted from the midfield against Tennessee and then against Vikings.
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: He's going for it in his own like thirty or twenty.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: It's just there's no rhyme or reason. That team has
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: lost one of the best quarterbacks in all of football,
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: and they even have people questioning him and being like,
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: are we sure Herbert's that good? Yes, we are sure
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: he's that good. He's just with horrible coaching. So you know,
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: six is a big number. I can't believe it's gotten
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: up to six, which means that's that's professional money coming
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: in on this Chargers team, which I'll take Vegas. I mean,
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: if it's six and a half in our contest, like
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: me and Chad are going to hate ourselves for it,
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: but we're going to have to put them in Like that's.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: A number, dude, I would not hit ourselves for taking it.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: Here's the thing, Simon, if we did that, I'd actually
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: feel like we're going back to our roots and we're
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: playing each week in the window of the week and
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: not thinking about what's happened previously, because we would one
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: hundred percent play a team that just looked terrible and
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: got beat at home in prime time and is now
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: getting an inflated number on the road against a division
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: team in which now we have Evan's stats backing us
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: up telling us the last twenty years the right side
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: to play in that scenario is the underdog. Yeah, so
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: I love the Raiders in.
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: This spot all right?
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: Most likely then I might just talk myself into saying
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: that's the exact decision. Kidding, We're sticking with Tennessee. Simon.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: Can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in the
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: United States? I know you can do it.
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: Game Time.
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: Game Time. I love Game Time for two reasons. One
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: because they sponsored this show, but number two because I
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got amazing
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: last minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including pro
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: and college football games, speaking of which I'm open to
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: the game Time app. Right now. From my house, I
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: can go see the New York Jets this Sunday seventy
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: five bucks. I can see the New York Rangers tonight
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: for thirty eight bucks. All sports are in bloom in
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: the fall in New York from my house in Connecticut.
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app.
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: Get out, have some fun this week, Go sweat your
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: bets live and in person, and you can redeem code
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms apply again.
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: Just download the app. Enter code favorites for twenty dollars
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: off last minute tickets, lowest price garon teed. Dude, you
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: can go see Patrick Mahomes for less than seventy five
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: bucks this week, play against the Jets.
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: Just say.
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: Cisco, Arizona Cardinals on the road at the San Francisco
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: forty nine ers. Arizona Cardinals just beat the Cowboys as
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: twelve point underdogs at home. You said that you still
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: had Dallas as the second best team in the NFC
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: over San Francisco after the Eagles.
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: I said third, third best?
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: You did, Yeah, I thought you said. I thought you
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: said you still had them second.
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: Now I saw it Eagles forty nine ers.
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: Then okay, but I'm not betting on the Cardinals this week.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: Like this is not a this is not a okay.
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: It's a huge dog bet on the Cardinals situation for me.
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know what to do with that. I
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: threw a little Sunday night on the fourteen and a half.
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: I just thought that was really high. Now it's down
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: to fourteen. But it seems like, yeah, you're right, Like
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to find a good angle here, but it's
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: like that could have been the Cardinals Super Bowl and
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: they have a huge leutdown here, or this could be
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: the most you know, the greatest gambling covering team ever
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: chat and every week we're gonna get value on him.
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: So this week the public will come in on them.
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: They'll take this number. So I'm assuming the sharp side
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: will be the forty nine ers. Yeah, just torn because
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: it's such a big number, and you know, of all
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: the positives, I want to say, rock party. He didn't
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: look great, and he looked great week one. In the
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: past two weeks, he's had some moments where it's like,
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: without Changahan's offense, this guy looks like a seventh round
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: pick and the ball, his throws are late, they're you know,
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: the Giants were all over that team and they just basically,
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, Kyle's a genius. He just said, all right,
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: I'm just gonna make this really easy for the kid.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: Have a couple of dump offs, just run the ball
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: to McCaffrey, and then every now and then let them
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: take those big fifty to fifty shots downfield. So looking
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: at this team, yeah, on paper, the forty nine ers
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: are clearly better, but are they fourteen fourteen and a
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: half points. That's just really tough to say. Chad. So
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: I do want to take the Cardinals, but it's hard
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: to get there right now, it really is. So yeah,
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: we can keep it moving. I don't know if we're
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: getting up with this one in our contest.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: Oh well, i'll tell you what. I think we're going
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: to get some sharp calls about that because you mentioned it.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: You think the wise guys will be in the Niners. Yeah,
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: the money is on the Niners and the tickets are
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: on the Cardinals right now.
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: That makes sense.
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: But there is a stat that says double digit dogs
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: in the conference past twenty years significantly higher win percentage
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: against the spread. So yeah, you got a little bit
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: of a taste of the Cardinals at fourteen and a half.
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: Who knows, maybe it wins in fourteen and we can
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: all win, but I'm not playing this game. I'll tell
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: you that right now. New England at Dallas. Dallas is
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: seven point favorite. I know. On Sunday we said that
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: we loved the Patriots at plus seven. Evan had that
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: stat about teams that were double digit that were more
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: than a touchdown favorites who lost straight up. What happens
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: the next week favors the Cowboys. I think Mac Jones, who,
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: by the way, has more RPOs this year than Justin Fields.
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: I think he's really bad. I think there's like a
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: legitimate issue for the Patriots a quarterback that isn't Oh
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: he was playing in him onsoon, Oh, he was playing
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: against a great defense. Like, I think he's just a
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: bad quarterback. And so I'm having a hard time getting there.
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: I think the Cowboys are going to kill him in
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: this game.
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And I'm at the standpoint of like, yeah, Max
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: obviously not that great, but it's impossible to know. It's like,
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: who is Max Jones been thrown to his whole career.
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: I mean last year was a total waste of a season,
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: and then this season he starts with the defending the
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: the team that went to the Super Bowl last year,
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: the Eagles Miami, who's like everyone's favorite team, and he
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: played a really good Jets defense at home in a
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: monsoon So I like, I'm with you, like I'm trying
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: not to over react all that stuff. But he's in
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: another tough spot. You're playing against a good Dallas team
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: off an embarrassing loss, So I want to get there.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I had a couple of pros call me
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: after we did our show Sunday and they're just like,
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: I actually like the Cowboys in the spot like the
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: other side, and you know, I just I'm having a
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: tough one with this game. So yeah, we can we
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: can keep it moving because I really don't what to
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: do with this one here, but I do want to
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: take New England here, and that really good defense, Like
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: I just you know, that offense, the Cowboys offense, for
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: all the talent they have, the way they played against
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: the Cardinals, it's gotta be a mccathy like the head coach,
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: you know.
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, he's running the ball it the red zone.
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and like all the like a lot of the
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: players calling like I gotta I only watched it one
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: time through all twenty two de game. I gotta watch
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: it again. But from just what I saw, he was
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: running in bad spots and it felt like I don't
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: want to shoot on I just don't want to be
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: sitting here shitting on Dak. But this is why I
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: just don't trust Dak. He has these games where he
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: just looks completely lost, and that's how it felt in
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: that game, where you know, he wasn't taking the easy reads.
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: He was trying to force it to Ceedee Lamb where
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: there's just was no need for it, Like Gallup was open,
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: he wasn't looking his way for a certain points. So yeah,
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: a lot of questions here on Dallas, but like it
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: feels like you're right, like this is probably a nice
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: bi Lo spot on Dallas. So yeah, interesting here a
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: lot of pros I talked to like Dallas here where
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: I just thought everyone would take the Patriots in this defense,
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: like this is a really good defense and an offense
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: that say what you want. They want to run the ball,
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: and that to me looks like that's what Dallas achilles
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: heel is. Like the Cardinals are running the ball down
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: their throat and Week one, the Giants first drive, they
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: were running it right down Dallas all the way down
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: the field and then it kind of stops. So Dallas
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: could have an incredible pass rush. It seems like their
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: biggest weakness will be against the rush this year. So
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: we're talking about that's what New England wants to do
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: with Zekiel Elliott and Stevenson like that. That kind of
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: feels like I want to play the seven. But I'm
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: with you, Childick. The fact that there's pros telling me
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: they like Dallas, I want any more time on this game.
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Do you know what I was wondering last night?
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: I was working on this while I was watching the game,
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: and I was doing the math on Dallas and on
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: New England, and I kept thinking to myself, I know,
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: we said we like New England, and like I kind
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: of hate New England, and I think we're I think
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: we were letting, at least for me, their defense was
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: so good, especially against Miami, their defense was really good. Yeah,
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: I feel like we were letting that cloud our judgment.
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: And even though Dallas is missing Trayvon Diggs, like I do,
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: think Dallas's defense is better in every stat that matters.
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: And so I don't know how Mac Jones is going
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: to score. And I think the red zone stuff that
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys struggled with against the Cardinals, there's a regression
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: to the mean on that. Right, they were terrible about
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: it one week, They will be better about it the
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: next week. I think they're still figuring out what are
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: they do in the red zone with aut Dalton Schultz,
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: without Zeke Elliott. Right, they don't know who their sort
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: of power play.
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: And they have a shuffle. Their offensive line has been
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: shuffled around.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Jon Smith and like and Zach Martin like, I
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: think that. I just think they're a much better team
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: in there at home. And this is the spot where
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: Dak does.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: Cover well see because again there's a lot of counters
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: to where it's like you put Gonzales on CD, now
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: you're taking away Dak's only real safety blanket. I just
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of questions about the Cowboys like this
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: is this will actually surprisingly be a big game for
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: the Cowboys.
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: It will be interesting to see on Sunday. But what do
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: we land on this? People remember, longtime listeners to the
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: podcast will remember I told a story about Carson Palmer
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: when he was throwing to Keishawn Johnson, throwing him deep,
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: he would say which nipple do you want it on?
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: Because he was so accurate. And then I asked Carson's brother,
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: Vernon Palmer, who had been on the podcast and is
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: a prominent quarterback coach, that question. He said, yeah, it's true,
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: so is Mac Jones, because I think it must have
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: come up once. Is he still to you, Simon a
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: which nipple quarterback? There's a question from the audience right now.
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: No, it's it's more like which balls. Apparently he's like
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: a dirty player and punches guys on the balls, so
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: I might be talking on Mac Jones. Fuck Mac Jones.
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: I do not like Mac Jones at all. He just
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: seems like a dirty player and a shitty person. So
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: I don't I don't know to answer your question the chat,
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: but I am totally off Mac Jones as a person.
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: By the way, Matt Mitchell is now typing the notes
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: that I called him. Matt, I called him a which
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: nipple quarterback. I don't know what you're talking about. I've
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: never been on I've never been on the Mac Jones.
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: Thank you, Matt Mitchell y you absolutely were after he
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: was drafted.
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: Show me listen, can we get progressive as a sponsor,
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: because aren't they the ones who show the replay and
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: then like they make everyone look at it. Show me
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: the receipts if you're listening in the podcast version that
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: will be playing right now. Which nipple? That's Mac Jones
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: right now, He's a which nipple quarterback? All right, Kansas
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: City at the Jets, it's nine and a half. Joe
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: Namath hate Zach Wilson. This is the defense that is
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: getting wasted. I think Kansas City is if you can
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: say Kansas City is sneaky, like, I think there's some
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: I think their defense is better than it's been in years.
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: Chris Jones is just devastating quarterbacks. Right now? What are
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: we doing here waiting for a ten?
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I've seen it. There's a book right now, there's
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: a ten, Like I sent a runner to go about
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: it as we're doing this show. So yeah, I'm gonna
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: grab the ten. We'll be on the Jets. I don't
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: know what to tell you people like this sucks. This
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: is like the one of the tougher bets I'll have
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: to make this year. And it's like, I'm right there
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: with you. I hate Zach Wilson. I hate betting on him.
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: The guy is so bad in every way. But this
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: defense at home ten points, so like, how do we
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: not take this? I mean, I still have my questions
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: about this Chiefs team. Even against the Bears. There's a
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: couple of moments there where they just didn't look like
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: the old Chiefs where it's like it all came easily.
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: Like there was a bunch of times they were in
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: long third down plays against that Bears team to start
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: the game. Then once I got rolling, it was over.
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: Like once the Bears defense got tired, what was a
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: thirty four to nothing By the end of the first half,
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: they were dead. But like, there's a couple of things
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: in that first quarter. I was like, this is the Saint.
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: They will the Saint the same old Chiefs. Like, the
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: offense is definitely different, and you know, I'm getting a
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: great defense at plus ten at home. Chad, like, I
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: hate it, but this feels like, well, we just talked
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: about how we missed on the Cardinals last week. This
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: is the exact same kind of spot.
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, this is the Cardinals revisited.
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: We would do this a thousand times now that we're
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: back in the right frame of mind.
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: And just and people one in the my model makes
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: his ten. So it's not like I'm getting crazy good
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: value here. It's more like we got to take a
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: stand a spot, and this is a good spot to
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: take the ten with this Jets team.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: Monday night football game, Seattle visiting the New York Football Giants.
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: The Giants are one and a half point favorites at
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: a home right now, I got no read on this
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: game right now, no interest in this game to be honest,
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: I can't add anything to the conversation.
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to take the Giants, but I'm with
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: Chad like I'm gonna I'm gonna wait a little on
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: this one. There's not any great value either side on
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: this number. But my first my first glance was just like, yeah,
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: you take the Giants in this spot. They got embarrassed
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: on Thursday night. Seahawks beat up on a bad Carolina defense.
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: Giants defense isn't that much better, but they are better.
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: You assume this would be a good time to take
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: this Giants team. But weird number. I just can't believe
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: that it is minus one and a half. I thought
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: they would be a dog for sure, the Giants here,
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: So I was hoping to get good value here. That
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: just doesn't look like there's much value on the Giants.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: Wise, guys are with you that they tend they lean
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: to the Giants. Tickets on the Seahawks, money on the Giants.
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: Right now, let me recap so Thursday night, just so
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: people are aware, we like Green Bay a plus one.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: You better get it because it might not stay there.
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: We're gonna like the Bears plus three and a half.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: That's our preference. We like Baltimore plus two and a half,
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: but we're waiting on a three. Tennessee plus two and
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: a half against the Bengals. That's our exec decision. Buffalo
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half is the Simon says, get
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: it before it gets to minus three. Simon loves the
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: Commanders plus eight. It's gonna see if we he can
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: talk me into it on Sunday, maybe it'll move even higher.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: He also loves Carolina plus three and a half. That
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: makes me sick to my stomach. Las Vegas plus six
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: with Jimmy questionable. I'm going to like this game either way.
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: I don't care if he's playing quarterback. Dallas minus seven
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: is on the table for a conversation. We'll probably end
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: up talking about that on Thursday. New York Jets plus ten.
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: We're really hoping to get a ten in the contest
• 54:18
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