Latest / Simply Bitcoin / NEW Model Reveals WHY YOU Need 4 Bitcoin To Retire by 2030 | EP 1251

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NEW Model Reveals WHY YOU Need 4 Bitcoin To Retire by 2030 | EP 1251 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  So what if I told you guys that you could retire with just four
• 0:03
  Bitcoin by the year of 2030? Well, today we're going to be
• 0:07
  breaking down the new model that not only predicts that, but
• 0:11
  we're also going to be using this brand new model to have a
• 0:15
  look at how much Bitcoin you need to retire if you've got,
• 0:19
  say, five years or 10 years left working.
• 0:22
  And we're also going to be having a look at when we can
• 0:26
  retire if you hold one. Bitcoin. 10% of a Bitcoin or
• 0:30
  even 1% of a Bitcoin, because we do know that for Bitcoin is a
• 0:34
  loss. We do know right now that's
• 0:36
  nearly half $1,000,000 considering the price of
• 0:39
  bitcoins above $100,000 a coin. So of course, we thought the
• 0:43
  best person to discuss this brand new model with would
• 0:48
  actually be the creator himself. So we've reached out to Smitty
• 0:52
  and of course we've got our Fearless host and fearless
• 0:56
  leader, Niko to dive into what I think is the most interesting
• 1:01
  model in the Bitcoin space right now.
• 1:04
  But before we really break this down in detail, we have a lot of
• 1:08
  institutional news that I think impacts this model and I think
• 1:14
  adds even more credibility and credence to the crazy bullish
• 1:19
  numbers we're going to be looking at in the culture
• 1:22
  section of today's show. So this brand new report dropped
• 1:26
  from Bitwise, I believe. And the first point I want to
• 1:30
  discuss with you today guys, is this massive highlight that
• 1:34
  Bitwise is saying. They're saying that we could see
• 1:37
  over $120 billion of institutional flows that come
• 1:43
  into Bitcoin before the end of 2025.
• 1:47
  So this could total and mean that 4.2 million Bitcoin is
• 1:52
  going to be acquired just by the institutions.
• 1:56
  Nico, what do you think of this? Yeah, I mean, it's absolutely
• 1:59
  crazy. And it's a trend that we've been
• 2:00
  seeing in 2025 and 2024, right, Ever since, you know,
• 2:05
  specifically with the Trump administration coming in and the
• 2:07
  approval of the ETFs in early of early 2024.
• 2:11
  But you know, it's just been an institutional bonanza.
• 2:14
  I mean, this is the first time in Bitcoin's history where it
• 2:17
  made an all time high before the having right?
• 2:20
  And that was all due to the ETF inflow.
• 2:22
  So I think what you're showing there is a Bitwise report once
• 2:26
  again indicating, you know, that we're basically set up for one
• 2:29
  of the most bullish Bitcoin runs.
• 2:33
  And I've been saying this for for months now, guys, you guys
• 2:36
  are hearing a broken record. I'm going to say it once again,
• 2:39
  this has been the most bullish Bitcoin cycle from a news
• 2:42
  perspective, one of the most bearish from price action
• 2:45
  perspective. But I think the price action is
• 2:47
  going to catch up very, very soon.
• 2:50
  Momentarily, momentarily, the CS have parted.
• 2:54
  From a regulatory perspective, Bitcoin has nowhere else to go
• 2:59
  but up. I think it's just a matter of of
• 3:01
  of when. I couldn't agree more.
• 3:03
  I think the institutional flows we're seeing in the Bitcoin
• 3:07
  space in 2025 is absolutely unprecedented.
• 3:10
  I think I've been in Bitcoin seven or eight years and I've
• 3:12
  never been as bullish for a bull run than I am right now.
• 3:15
  I think you've been in Bitcoin even longer, Nico.
• 3:17
  How does this bull run feel compared to other ones?
• 3:20
  Yeah, I mean like from it feels a little bit muted, honestly.
• 3:26
  Like, you know, we're, I think we're a little bit spoiled.
• 3:28
  Like I, I got into Bitcoin in 2016 and I I never forget the
• 3:32
  2017 run. We got a 20X in a year.
• 3:36
  Now, what's interesting about this cycle is that it gives me
• 3:38
  2017 vibes. This doesn't give me 2021 vibes,
• 3:41
  2021 vibes. It was like it peaked very early
• 3:45
  on. But this cycle it's, it seems
• 3:48
  like it's going slow and steady, right?
• 3:51
  It's going slow and up and to the right.
• 3:53
  And the longer we essentially consolidate at these levels, the
• 3:57
  better it is actually long term for the bull run.
• 4:00
  So it's just obviously it's a little bit psychological.
• 4:03
  It's a little bit tough on you emotionally, especially if
• 4:06
  you're a bitcoiner who's been in this for a while and you're used
• 4:08
  to the, you know, 6X in a year type of gains or 20X in a year.
• 4:13
  I think this one has been the most painful from a
• 4:15
  psychological perspective, But I think if you hold on, you're
• 4:18
  going to be absolutely rewarded, man.
• 4:20
  I'm, I'm incredibly bullish. Luke, could you pull up that,
• 4:22
  that article again for just a second?
• 4:24
  Let's read some of these numbers because they're, they're effing
• 4:27
  crazy, man. I mean, $120 billion in
• 4:31
  institutional flow forecasted by the end of 2025, with that
• 4:35
  figure rising to 300 billion in 2026, totaling over 4.2 million
• 4:42
  BTC in cumulative acquisitions. Now, what's really interesting
• 4:46
  about this, Luke, and I know you have your, your finger on the
• 4:50
  pulse of this, there's not enough Bitcoin on exchanges to
• 4:55
  essentially fulfill this, fulfill that number.
• 4:58
  There's not, there's, there's not enough Bitcoin on exchanges.
• 5:01
  If they wanted to buy all that Bitcoin, there's literally not.
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  Enough. Right.
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  Most of the Bitcoin, a lot of it's estimated between 3:00 and
• 5:08
  4:00 millionaire completely lost and then the rest are in
• 5:12
  custody, right? So it's only between 3 and 5
• 5:15
  million that are actively traded.
• 5:17
  I think it's a little bit less than that.
• 5:19
  The amount of Bitcoin on exchanges continues to hit all
• 5:22
  time lows. So what do you think's going to
• 5:24
  happen to the price? It's not that they're not going
• 5:27
  to be able to acquire that much Bitcoin.
• 5:29
  They're just going to be able to, they're going to have to,
• 5:31
  they're going to be forced to be able to buy it on a much higher
• 5:33
  price. There's always going to be a
• 5:34
  seller, but the the question is what's the price going to be at
• 5:38
  right? Absolutely, and This is why I'm
• 5:40
  so bullish to discuss this brand new Bitcoin retirement model
• 5:46
  that Smitty's put together, which I'm pumped to get into
• 5:48
  today. Because I think the biggest
• 5:50
  thing that people are not quite being able to wrap their heads
• 5:53
  around is just how scarce Bitcoin is.
• 5:56
  Like you said, Nico, coins on exchanges right now, it's
• 5:59
  dropping like an absolute rock. We can see over the past five
• 6:03
  months alone, the number of Bitcoin on exchanges has dropped
• 6:07
  from 2.9 million in November 2024.
• 6:12
  That's just five or six months ago.
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  Not that long ago. Right now you can see it
• 6:16
  plunging to 2.5 million coins. So we've seen about 500,000
• 6:21
  Bitcoin leave the exchanges in the past.
• 6:24
  What's that six months? So what does that mean?
• 6:26
  Let's break it down. We know that about what is it
• 6:30
  15,000 Bitcoin a mind a month. There's 450 Bitcoin a day.
• 6:34
  Quick math tells me that's about 13 or 14,000 Bitcoin mined a
• 6:38
  month. Well over the past six months
• 6:41
  we've seen 80,000 Bitcoin leave the exchanges with only 14,000
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  mined. This is why I'm, I think even
• 6:49
  more bullish than most people in Bitcoin because I just think
• 6:52
  we're going to see this thing progress.
• 6:54
  We're going to see this five year trend of Bitcoin leaving
• 6:57
  the exchanges and I think we're going to get into a world where
• 7:00
  not a whole lot of the Bitcoin actually circulates and is
• 7:03
  available for sale. Now again, I've run my own
• 7:05
  numbers assuming what would happen on a Bitcoin standard if
• 7:09
  we see a pareidos principle distribution on Bitcoin, and you
• 7:13
  can run your own assumptions. But I've found through my maths
• 7:16
  that if there is 4 million Bitcoin available for sale and
• 7:20
  actively trades every day in the future on a Bitcoin standard,
• 7:24
  you don't need that much Bitcoin to retire.
• 7:26
  You can get into the new class of millionaires with 0.015
• 7:31
  Bitcoin. A lot of people throw that
• 7:33
  number around but they don't back it up with the maths.
• 7:35
  The maths is on a Bitcoin standard.
• 7:37
  Again, what is a Pareidos principle?
• 7:39
  It's a 20, it's an 8020. So typically in the world wealth
• 7:43
  distribution, it follows A Pareto's principle.
• 7:46
  It follows this 8020 distribution where the 20% of
• 7:50
  the richest people, they actually have 80% of the wealth.
• 7:53
  And, and this Pareto's principle, it's not just for,
• 7:56
  you know, it's not just found in economics and wealth
• 7:58
  distributions, but it's found in many things.
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  So if you assume, OK, we transitional Bitcoin standard,
• 8:04
  let's assume there's a Pareto's principle wealth distribution on
• 8:08
  a Bitcoin standard. And when you run those numbers,
• 8:10
  there's only going to be 80 million other people who can
• 8:13
  hold 0.015 Bitcoin today. That's 1.5% of a Bitcoin, and
• 8:19
  that's about $1500 worth of Bitcoin.
• 8:22
  And again, how many millionaires are there in the world?
• 8:24
  There's about 50 million millionaires and there's only
• 8:26
  going to be 80 million people who can hold that amount of a
• 8:29
  Bitcoin. So again, that's a completely
• 8:31
  different model, completely different calculation to the one
• 8:34
  we're going to be talking about today with Smitty.
• 8:36
  But this just goes to the point that we're talking about Bitcoin
• 8:39
  is incredibly scarce when you consider how quickly Bitcoin is
• 8:44
  leaving the exchanges. I think this is the biggest
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  thing that a lot of these big institutions like Bitwise is
• 8:51
  looking at when they're publishing these massive reports
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  that I think it's worth getting into in a little bit more
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  detail. Nico, have a look at this second
• 8:58
  bullet point. Bitcoin treasury companies are
• 9:00
  on pace to accumulate over 1,000,000 Bitcoin, with the
• 9:03
  number of public companies holding Bitcoin expected to more
• 9:06
  than double by the end of 2026. What do you think of that?
• 9:10
  Yeah, I know. It's absolutely crazy.
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  And just to kind of add a little bit of context to what you're
• 9:14
  saying, right, in regards to the amount of millionaires, right?
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  So you're absolutely right. It's between 50 to 60 million
• 9:20
  millionaires all around the world, and there's only 21
• 9:24
  million Bitcoins to do the math, right?
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  There's literally not enough to go around and then subtract the
• 9:28
  three or 4 million that are lost, right?
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  This is absolute scarcity. Gold doesn't have this.
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  The price of gold goes up. Gold mining goes up with it.
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  You know, the, the essentially the halving ensures that it
• 9:38
  doesn't matter how high the price of Bitcoin goes up.
• 9:41
  You know, the amount of Bitcoin that's being mined is literally
• 9:43
  going to get cut in half every four years no matter what.
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  So you have, you know, you essentially have absolute
• 9:49
  scarcity. It's going to rocket ship,
• 9:51
  rocket ship up. Anyways, I'm going to pull up
• 9:53
  what Luke was talking about, the second paragraph, the second key
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  highlight from this awesome report, this Bitwise report.
• 10:00
  Shout out Opti for for finding it.
• 10:02
  Opti will be back on Monday. Guys, next week's going to be
• 10:04
  absolutely awesome. By the way, we will be live
• 10:06
  streaming from the floor of the Bitcoin conference.
• 10:09
  It's going to be absolutely awesome.
• 10:10
  Hope to see a lot of you guys there.
• 10:12
  Anyways, Bitcoin treasury companies are on pace to
• 10:15
  accumulate over 1,000,000 BTC, with the number of public
• 10:19
  companies holding Bitcoin expected to more than double by
• 10:23
  the end of 2026. Again, it's what what Luke was
• 10:27
  talking about. With the amount of millionaires,
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  there's only so much Bitcoin for these public companies, right?
• 10:33
  I think there's a little bit of a rehypothecation risk that, you
• 10:37
  know, a, a lot of us, you know, fear a little bit.
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  Ideally, you'd want these companies to do what El Salvador
• 10:43
  is doing. El Salvador has their reserve
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  completely public. Anyone could audit that address
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  at any time. Ideally, that's what you would
• 10:50
  want a lot of these companies to do.
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  I think it would solve the rehypothecation problem.
• 10:54
  I think eventually we'll get there.
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  But regardless, I mean, even if there's a percentage of paper
• 11:00
  Bitcoin, there's still 21 million Bitcoin.
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  There's only so much to go around.
• 11:05
  And if these companies have the intent of trying to acquire 4.2
• 11:10
  million Bitcoin, I mean, price is going to go up.
• 11:13
  It it's, it's, it's inevitable. Anyways, we got Smitty on the
• 11:17
  show today. I want to, I want to get his
• 11:18
  input into all this. Smitty, while you're creating
• 11:21
  this retirement guide, I think a lot of people were saying this
• 11:24
  and I think the reason that your, your post, which we're
• 11:27
  going to cover during the culture segment later on today's
• 11:29
  show, stay tuned. We're going to do a deep dive.
• 11:32
  I think a lot of people when they saw it, I think the reason
• 11:34
  it got so popular, it resonated with so many people is it's
• 11:38
  actually not that much Bitcoin that you need to retire.
• 11:42
  It's actually significantly less than a lot of people
• 11:45
  anticipated. And I think you put the number
• 11:48
  all the way up to $1 million per year, you know, for the big
• 11:51
  Ballers, I want to live large, but I think you started with
• 11:54
  like 50K per year, you know, and most of the world, unless you're
• 11:58
  living in like, you know, LA, New York, Miami, or like one of
• 12:02
  the big cities, you're not spending, you know, good luck
• 12:07
  trying to spend, you know, more than a million.
• 12:11
  It's absurd. You're going to buy the whole
• 12:13
  town essentially, right? So, but I love how you broke it
• 12:16
  down. And one of the things that I
• 12:17
  love about your retirement guide as well is you started from age
• 12:21
  5, which I appreciate because I just had my first kid, right?
• 12:25
  And then congratulations, and then thank you.
• 12:27
  And then you essentially speculated that people are going
• 12:30
  to live to like age 100, right? And then the retirement was
• 12:32
  going to be like 75, right? And I, I love how you broke it
• 12:36
  down. So anyways, do you have any
• 12:38
  thoughts on this bitwise report And the, the, I mean, the, the
• 12:43
  supply shock that I think we're on the verge of seeing.
• 12:45
  I mean, they're basically saying they, they all these
• 12:48
  institutions have every, and this isn't even taking into
• 12:51
  account the US government. You know, Donald Trump's
• 12:54
  literally going on TV and basically saying the US
• 12:56
  government wants to buy Bitcoin. Like holy cow, right?
• 13:00
  Number eventually is going to go up.
• 13:01
  Smitty, do you have any thoughts?
• 13:04
  Definitely, I think this is an important report.
• 13:07
  I think this is an angle of Bitcoin analysis.
• 13:11
  I don't tend to spend as much time on, but I, I, I understand
• 13:15
  that there are serious supply shock considerations that I
• 13:19
  think are going to are part of what drives us into these
• 13:23
  massive upside bubbles that we see, you know, periodically.
• 13:27
  And when the hype around Bitcoin starts to occur and I think
• 13:31
  that, you know, there's, there's basically these hype cycles.
• 13:35
  I think it's, it's a totally, it's in my understanding, it's a
• 13:40
  totally valid driver of what gets us into these exponential
• 13:44
  run ups. And so I think that's what we're
• 13:45
  going to start seeing here. I like how you brought in the
• 13:48
  angle of we're depleting on the exchanges at a faster rate than
• 13:51
  people will be able to actually be able to draw off of.
• 13:54
  And I think that's just compounding with the other
• 13:57
  effects. So yeah, the, the numbers are
• 13:59
  massive, you know, and so from my perspective, it, it's I, as
• 14:03
  you guys probably know, I, I analyze things from a power law
• 14:06
  perspective. I started doing that a couple
• 14:09
  years ago on my own. There's a couple phases.
• 14:13
  Without getting into the deeper details, I look at kind of two
• 14:16
  general phases of Bitcoin. I see a long term growth
• 14:20
  trajectory that's driven by a certain set of math principles
• 14:24
  and there are these massive run up cycle.
• 14:27
  I mean, it's fairly cyclical. I think most of us would agree.
• 14:29
  And a huge amount of the gains, huge amount of the returns that
• 14:32
  a lot of people, a lot of the traders, especially around this
• 14:36
  asset experience are around times like these.
• 14:39
  So it's incredibly exciting. I'm nothing but bullish about
• 14:42
  that. I those are numbers that I
• 14:45
  haven't spent as much crunching on my side.
• 14:47
  I tend to take the longer term quantitative analysis approach,
• 14:51
  but very, very exciting. I'm certainly excited to see my
• 14:54
  bag explode. And also the that I, I love the
• 14:58
  figure of that there's not enough like there's not enough
• 15:02
  millionaires in the world or there's not enough Bitcoin for
• 15:05
  all the millionaires in the world to own one.
• 15:07
  But Bitcoin, that type of figure I think is should speak to the
• 15:11
  scarcity of this asset, which I think is one of the key value
• 15:16
  propositions of it. So.
• 15:18
  Yeah 100% I agree with you now the power law angles is really
• 15:21
  interesting. I do want to address some of the
• 15:23
  comments by the way guys, I do want to give a shout out to the
• 15:24
  live stream 1500 of you guys watching live between YouTube
• 15:27
  and X rumbles absolutely popping off as well.
• 15:30
  If you guys are enjoying the show so far, make sure to smash
• 15:32
  that like button. I do want to address the
• 15:34
  comments before we move on. Luke just got off a flight all
• 15:38
  right, so he's tired. Opti is not fired.
• 15:41
  Opti will be back on Monday. Opti needs a well needed rest.
• 15:45
  He's been going hard and and filling in for me for the days
• 15:48
  that I've been, I've been out. But yeah, I mean, we're getting
• 15:51
  ready for Vegas next week. We'll be a lot.
• 15:53
  We'll we will, we will be live streaming from the conference
• 15:55
  floor and from the Airbnb. So it's going to be absolutely
• 15:58
  crazy. You guys are going to love the
• 16:00
  shows anyways. Luke, I saw you pull up
• 16:02
  something really, really interesting.
• 16:05
  Why don't you talk about that? Yeah.
• 16:07
  So this right here, it's not the devil's lettuce that I have
• 16:10
  before I get on these shows. This right here is the number of
• 16:13
  millionaires versus the number of Bitcoins.
• 16:16
  So we can see here we got about 60 million millionaires.
• 16:20
  Yes, the number fluctuates. There's 22 million millionaires
• 16:23
  in the US, apparently. That's a really interesting
• 16:26
  statistic. First time I've seen that one.
• 16:28
  But again, 21 million Bitcoin, 22 million millionaires in the
• 16:32
  USI thought that was really fascinating.
• 16:34
  And as soon as you said that, Smitty, I knew I wanted to find
• 16:36
  a chart to back that up, because that's a, again, it's a very
• 16:39
  interesting point about Bitcoin schedule.
• 16:42
  Yeah, I think a lot of people, they struggle.
• 16:44
  I think a lot of people need visual aids.
• 16:46
  And I think, you know, charts like this show that yes, Bitcoin
• 16:51
  is as scarce as we are saying it is.
• 16:54
  So great point there, Smitty. I love that one.
• 16:57
  Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I mean, it breaks it
• 16:59
  down. I love it right where it just
• 17:01
  says 59,000,000 millionaires 20 just in the US alone 22 million
• 17:06
  millionaires and circulating supply of Bitcoin 19.65.
• 17:10
  Take into account the three to 4 million that are estimated loss
• 17:14
  that are lost. I mean, you could do the math
• 17:15
  just in the US. If.
• 17:17
  Every millionaire in the US just wanted to buy one Bitcoin.
• 17:20
  They physically couldn't. And I think that gives you a
• 17:23
  very, very good, you know, kind of perspective.
• 17:26
  Anyways, I kind of want to double back to what you were
• 17:28
  saying about regarding the power loss.
• 17:30
  The power loss became extremely popular.
• 17:32
  YouTube. I mean, me and me and Luke know
• 17:35
  this because we make YouTube videos and it's just taken
• 17:39
  essentially YouTube by storm in terms of people's interest in
• 17:42
  it. And I think the reason for that
• 17:44
  is people buy Bitcoin and they want to have a sense of when you
• 17:49
  know where Bitcoin is going. And I think, you know, Plan B's
• 17:53
  model, absolute catastrophe didn't work out.
• 17:57
  Shout out to the guy though, great content creator, big fan
• 18:00
  of his work. But you know, it's really
• 18:04
  interesting is is, you know, this seems to be accurate so
• 18:08
  far. So far, the power power law
• 18:11
  model seems to be accurate. Now, why are you such a big fan
• 18:14
  of it, Smitty? I know that I was talking to
• 18:17
  Cena the other day. He did like an evolution of the
• 18:19
  power law models, like the quantile model.
• 18:22
  So it's even deeper than the power law.
• 18:23
  But why? What is it about the power law
• 18:26
  model that gives you so much confidence that essentially it
• 18:29
  allows you to predict where Bitcoin is heading in the
• 18:32
  future? I mean, isn't that impossible?
• 18:34
  Like if we knew where Bitcoin was heading in the future,
• 18:37
  wouldn't everyone, wouldn't the price be a lot higher by now?
• 18:40
  Great, great questions. First of all, huge shout out to
• 18:43
  Cena Plan C handful of other people there's, I mean, some of
• 18:47
  them, some of them are great, great online colleagues in terms
• 18:52
  of doing the analysis. And at this point I consider
• 18:54
  friends. Cena's incredible.
• 18:56
  I mean, he's he's a workhorse as well.
• 18:59
  Yeah. What gives me confidence about
• 19:01
  the power law is not that not necessarily that I think long
• 19:05
  term it's the end all be all for what the action is going to look
• 19:09
  like. But I think it's the best that
• 19:11
  we have from AI, what I call the reliability perspective.
• 19:15
  So when you take the statistical model in the probabilistic view
• 19:20
  of what the price action is doing long term.
• 19:23
  So thinking, and this isn't why I think it's so attractive for
• 19:26
  for those who are of the Hodler mindset, right?
• 19:29
  So we're not trying to trade the cycles necessarily.
• 19:32
  But I think when you look at the long term reliability of the
• 19:35
  asset and kind of my background in, in engineering has been a
• 19:38
  lot of reliability work. We look at like, So what are
• 19:41
  the, what are the the most likely outcomes based on
• 19:44
  historical data, right? And where the data sits and 11
• 19:48
  sort of variant on the power law.
• 19:50
  First of all, the power law is a very simple model, which is kind
• 19:53
  of it's a simple, elegant model. So in, in in physics modeling
• 19:58
  statistics, you look for the simplest type of model that can
• 20:01
  explain the most amount of the data that's occurred so far.
• 20:04
  Here we've got, you know, 15 plus years of data.
• 20:07
  It's an amazing data set. The tricky part is there's only
• 20:09
  one BTC, there's only one Bitcoin.
• 20:11
  So it's not like we have, you know, several sister assets to
• 20:17
  compare it to directly. At least there's only one king.
• 20:21
  But then the quantile analysis is actually taking the the power
• 20:24
  law. The the power law formula and
• 20:27
  then breaking the data up into different percentages basically.
• 20:30
  So it's like this amount of data occurs 1% of the time on the low
• 20:35
  end, then you can go up to the median, which would be that.
• 20:38
  I think what's showing here is that somewhere around that green
• 20:42
  line would be like the median or so 50% of the time the priced
• 20:45
  action follows that trend and it's a power again, it's a power
• 20:48
  law formula. You can do that all the way to
• 20:50
  the top. Now one caveat is I do a couple
• 20:53
  things on my channel or on my account.
• 20:56
  I analyze, I do power law analysis and I've developed my
• 20:59
  own variant of it called the decay channel, which attempts to
• 21:04
  more reliably capture the where the bubbles are going to go.
• 21:08
  So as we continue to have more cycles, what is the upper bound
• 21:11
  projected to be? And then there is the retirement
• 21:17
  guide. The retirement guide actually
• 21:18
  doesn't use that because, and I'll we can get into this later.
• 21:21
  I made a conservative, A conservative version of this
• 21:25
  retirement guide that's based on the 5th percentile power law.
• 21:29
  So if you have that other chart, it's it's a line that's
• 21:32
  following closer that support almost looks like the support
• 21:36
  line. That's a great chart from Cena.
• 21:38
  So I don't know if he's showing the Q1 here.
• 21:40
  So imagine like AQ5, AQ5 would be the basic, the basis
• 21:47
  mathematically of the retirement guide along with a lot of other
• 21:51
  stuff. And the reason I do that is
• 21:54
  because I'm trying to take the guesswork out of where the
• 21:56
  bubbles are going to take us periodically.
• 21:58
  And so that's why I'm calling it a conservative target guide.
• 22:03
  So it's like somebody that's entering into Bitcoin and
• 22:05
  they're wondering, well, like how much should I accumulate to
• 22:07
  start? I think it's giving a pretty
• 22:10
  reasonable initial target for people this to stock up as a
• 22:16
  minimum, a minimum target that will follow that 5th percentile
• 22:21
  power law trend line. And that will theoretically
• 22:24
  allow them to not need to down adjust their annual living
• 22:30
  expenses from year to year 95% of the time because of the
• 22:33
  statistics around it. So that was the reason for the
• 22:36
  update to so right, What you're showing now is the old version,
• 22:40
  which is the median power law, but that that is, that is the
• 22:44
  median price, which is a, a combination of sort of that,
• 22:49
  that support line as well as where the price takes us up each
• 22:53
  of these bubbles. So it's a little, it's a little
• 22:55
  scarier in terms of the volatility.
• 22:57
  And so the reason behind moving to the 5th percentile is to make
• 23:00
  it a little more conservative and make it so you can be
• 23:02
  confident than 95% of the time any given year, you're not going
• 23:06
  to have to go, you know, oh crap.
• 23:08
  So this year I can't draw down 100,000 or the, you know, future
• 23:12
  equivalent 100,000 year, $100,000 a year.
• 23:16
  This year I'm going to have to like really tighten my belt or,
• 23:18
  you know, sell off some assets or do something crazy.
• 23:21
  I love that man. So, and we're going to do it by
• 23:23
  the way, guys, we're going to do like a deep dive on this.
• 23:26
  You guys are going to have to stay tuned for the culture
• 23:28
  segment. We're going to do a deep dive
• 23:29
  on, you know, how much, basically how much Bitcoin you
• 23:32
  need to retire. We're going to break it down by
• 23:34
  income brackets. SO50A100K200K250K, half a
• 23:38
  million, a million, and we're going to plug in the numbers.
• 23:41
  It's by age as well. And of course we have, you know,
• 23:44
  the author of of this joining us.
• 23:47
  But before we move on to that topic, Luke, could you go back
• 23:50
  to the kind of the rainbow Powerwall chart that you had
• 23:53
  pulled up? I do want to ask Smitty about it
• 23:57
  and I, and I do want to give credit.
• 23:58
  I actually had seen on simply Bitcoin IRL, we were talking
• 24:01
  about this now. OK, my question to you is right.
• 24:05
  So right now for the audio listeners, because we do have a
• 24:07
  lot of podcast listeners, essentially we're looking at
• 24:10
  this and there's different, there's different quantiles,
• 24:14
  right? There's the very bottom one,
• 24:16
  which I believe means the lowest risk.
• 24:18
  Then there's what you call the transition, which is like the
• 24:21
  second to lowest risk. Then there's the acceleration
• 24:25
  becomes yellow after that, which is roughly at 107 K.
• 24:29
  So we're, we're in that territory right now at the
• 24:31
  moment. And then a risk is starts to
• 24:35
  become the 130K region. And then you say danger is in
• 24:40
  the 163 K to 229 K. Now keep in mind everybody who's
• 24:45
  who's watching and listening this does move as time goes by.
• 24:49
  So and by 2026, that danger area doesn't start till 204 K and
• 24:54
  that risk area doesn't start till 160 K by 2026.
• 24:58
  So 2026 is like 6 months away basically.
• 25:02
  So it does move up as time goes by.
• 25:04
  So could you give us your opinion on this?
• 25:09
  You know, so we are in the acceleration phase, so to speak.
• 25:13
  Yeah, absolutely. Again, this is a great, a great
• 25:15
  way that it that Cena's put this together and visualized it.
• 25:19
  Some of us, I mean, we've been doing quantile analysis for
• 25:21
  quite a long time and I think this is one of the best ways
• 25:26
  that the quant, like the purely quantile power law perspective
• 25:32
  has been visualized so far. So big, big kudos to Cena.
• 25:35
  I think where we're at today at this looks like it's probably a
• 25:37
  few months outdated. This might be like from January
• 25:40
  or something. But if I'm reading it correctly,
• 25:43
  my opinion on this is that there are a couple different ways.
• 25:46
  So I am most confident in see on the, on the very far right, it
• 25:50
  shows the Q66Q33, all the different quantiles if you, if
• 25:55
  you look all the way to the right.
• 25:57
  And that's, that's what's indicating which quantile level
• 26:01
  you're looking at for the entire trajectory in that segment.
• 26:06
  Personally, when I look at the statistics from a quantile power
• 26:10
  law perspective, I'm most confident in the values below
• 26:15
  the 50th percentile and probably even the the 30th percentile in
• 26:20
  terms of where I'm confident the price is going to be living for
• 26:23
  those percentiles. The tricky part about using
• 26:26
  quantile analysis, just from my, in my opinion, I think it's a
• 26:29
  totally legitimate way to analyze the data as you start to
• 26:32
  go to the tops, right? And you can just look at like
• 26:35
  2025, we're currently in 2025, you start going to the 90th
• 26:39
  percentile, which is, I don't know if it says 163 Ki, don't
• 26:43
  know if that's for January and then 230K for 99th percentile.
• 26:50
  I, to me, it looks like beginning of 2026, end of 2025,
• 26:53
  it's saying like 280K. This is just my opinion, OK, But
• 26:57
  when I analyze using the, the decay channel model, which is
• 27:00
  kind of my, my variant on the power law, as I go up to the
• 27:04
  higher percentiles, I shift away from using a pure power law
• 27:09
  model to it's a, it's a combined multiplicative model between a
• 27:14
  power law and an exponential decay model.
• 27:18
  And the reason for that is that when I started analyzing the
• 27:20
  data above the 50th percentile of the data and especially the
• 27:25
  90th percentile and above, to me, it doesn't fit a power law
• 27:28
  that well actually. And what you do, what it does
• 27:31
  look like it fits pretty well is an exponential decay function
• 27:36
  overlaid onto a power law, which is a different thing than a pure
• 27:39
  power law. So I'm a little less, I guess
• 27:44
  you would say a little less bullish at the tops.
• 27:46
  I'm going to I'm going to interject a little bit.
• 27:49
  First of all, go ahead please. What what the F does that mean,
• 27:52
  bro? Like a decaying a decay like,
• 27:57
  you know, I, I know what that means because I'm a nerd and I
• 27:59
  live on X and I talk to Cena. But you know, for for most
• 28:02
  people when you're saying it decaying power law.
• 28:04
  What does that mean in just simplistic terms?
• 28:08
  And also, guys, hold on and let me enter and interject here for
• 28:12
  just a second. Also, I'm usually the one that
• 28:14
  gets picked on today. Leave my boy alone.
• 28:17
  All right, Luke. Got off a flight.
• 28:18
  He's the one of the hardest working content creators, all
• 28:21
  right, he's incredibly talented and you guys got to stop it
• 28:25
  anyway, smash the like button. If you guys are enjoying the
• 28:27
  show right now, we're at 128 likes.
• 28:29
  Help us break 150 likes by the time we get to the 45 minute
• 28:33
  mark. So smash that like button 700
• 28:36
  live viewers on YouTube alone. Back to you, Smitty.
• 28:39
  What does? If you could pull that up, Luke,
• 28:41
  appreciate it. What does that mean?
• 28:44
  Decaying power law. What does that mean?
• 28:47
  OK, so you're so a power law is a specific formula, right?
• 28:51
  And it's got two key variables in it and one of those variables
• 28:56
  is the actual exponent, which is basically the think of it as the
• 29:01
  growth rate of the power law, right.
• 29:03
  So in this purely quantile analysis, every single one of
• 29:08
  these lines, the purple line, every single one of these bands,
• 29:11
  it's a power. It's using the same exact
• 29:13
  formula from bottom all the way to the top.
• 29:15
  So that means even for the data that's just being captured by
• 29:19
  the bubbles. So the bubble back in 2021 is
• 29:22
  here showing early on. It's modeling all that as a as a
• 29:26
  power loss. So what my model does is a
• 29:28
  little bit different. Again, I've had respect for this
• 29:30
  and I think, and I've looked at it through this lens as well,
• 29:34
  and it may be, it may prove to be more valid than mine.
• 29:36
  I don't, I don't, you know, we'll see.
• 29:39
  The main difference with mine is that as I go to the top
• 29:41
  quantiles, right, that the highest percentages of the data,
• 29:45
  I combine a power law, right? Think of like a.
• 29:49
  So the basic power law multiplied by an exponential
• 29:53
  decay. So what is an exponential decay?
• 29:57
  So an exponential decay is a instead of the the variable
• 30:03
  being the exponent. The variable is the Co is the
• 30:06
  base coefficient, and the variable is actually time.
• 30:10
  So the power, it's probably easier to visualize this
• 30:13
  somehow, but you basically flip the base number and the
• 30:17
  exponent. So you reverse the 2.
• 30:19
  So in the exponent there's. Yeah, go ahead.
• 30:22
  So it basically what you're saying is that it essentially
• 30:24
  go, it decays over time, it goes down over time, the bitcoins
• 30:28
  growth bitcoins, but you know, it's not, it's not an
• 30:33
  exponential curve going up. It actually starts to slow down.
• 30:36
  That's what that's what you're saying the the.
• 30:38
  Price doesn't. The price doesn't decay down to
• 30:41
  0. What it does is it decays down
• 30:43
  into. Percentage means.
• 30:46
  The top. Basically the top data decays
• 30:49
  down into one of the lower percentile power laws.
• 30:53
  So it doesn't decay to 0, it decays down.
• 30:56
  Think of it as the volatility is minimizing over time.
• 30:59
  And we're seeing that we're and that that.
• 31:01
  Trend is exponential, so that's that's what I incorporate into
• 31:03
  my model. Gotcha, gotcha.
• 31:05
  All right. Well, I'm, I'm excited, Luke, I
• 31:07
  know, I know you want to dive deep a little bit into this
• 31:10
  before we move on to the number segment.
• 31:13
  Yeah, I mean, Speaking of models, I mean, we did promise
• 31:16
  the people that we'd be talking about four different simulations
• 31:19
  today. So I want to have a look at
• 31:22
  obviously the number everybody's been talking about on Twitter is
• 31:25
  this 4 Bitcoin by 20-30 number. But then I also want to, at the
• 31:29
  end of today's show, make it a little bit more applicable to
• 31:32
  everyone. Nico, we want to talk about,
• 31:33
  hey, when you, when can you retire?
• 31:35
  You own one Bitcoin or even 10% of a Bitcoin, so 0.1 Bitcoin and
• 31:39
  maybe we get stupidly bullish and we have a look at what the
• 31:42
  numbers say for 1% of a Bitcoin, so 0.01 Bitcoin.
• 31:46
  But yeah, I mean, let's quickly introduce the model and then
• 31:49
  we'll we'll dive super deep into it at the end of today's show in
• 31:52
  the culture. Smitty, what led you to creating
• 31:57
  this model? And let's talk about the big
• 32:00
  number everybody's been talking about on Twitter, this four
• 32:03
  Bitcoin by 20-30. Where does that come into
• 32:06
  things? There we go.
• 32:10
  Here's my mic. Yeah, awesome.
• 32:11
  Thanks again for having me on to explain it.
• 32:13
  The main driver behind me putting the model together in
• 32:16
  this format specifically is that first of all, I was to some
• 32:21
  extent inspired. There are a number of sort of
• 32:23
  FIRE, you know, Bitcoin retirement calculator tools out
• 32:26
  there that are interactive. There are a lot of variables you
• 32:29
  can play with. There's, there's, you know,
• 32:33
  different CAGR models, other assumptions you can build in.
• 32:37
  What I wanted to do is I wanted to do an exercise that was
• 32:39
  actually inspired a lot by my personal life.
• 32:41
  For a lot of the people that I sort of try to evangelize to who
• 32:44
  that I, that I care about, that are all different ages.
• 32:48
  They're relatively new to trying to understand their asset, but
• 32:53
  they've become interested enough to where they're like, OK, well,
• 32:55
  like what should I get to initially?
• 32:58
  And So what I tried to do, what I tried to take like a handful
• 33:01
  of very basic but very clear assumptions where I'm like, OK,
• 33:04
  these are assumptions. And then a very, a couple of key
• 33:07
  variables that I think for the average person are going to be
• 33:10
  the most important variables to turn.
• 33:13
  And of course there's going to be more when you start to get
• 33:15
  more advanced and you want to, you know, make more detailed
• 33:18
  changes, you can do that. But this is supposed to be
• 33:20
  something you can basically lay out on a single page or even
• 33:24
  include in a, in a, in a small booklet where you can print it
• 33:27
  out, put on a poster on your bulletin board just so you can
• 33:30
  kind of like very easily refer back to and say, Hey, how am I
• 33:33
  tracking against my stacking goal?
• 33:34
  And where's that going to take me in the future?
• 33:37
  And so that was the inspiration for it is actually coming from a
• 33:40
  lot of just the interactions I have in my personal life.
• 33:42
  Just what would be easy, I can hand somebody A1 page kind of
• 33:45
  guide, you know, rather than say, here's a calculator, figure
• 33:48
  it out, which I think are also very valuable.
• 33:50
  So that's to answer your first question.
• 33:53
  And I think your second question was where are we getting the
• 33:56
  four? Was it the four Bitcoin by 2030?
• 34:01
  Exactly. Yep.
• 34:02
  So the four, it happens to be that for a roughly 4 Bitcoin by
• 34:10
  20-30 applies to several different ages because of the
• 34:15
  growth rate that we're currently experiencing.
• 34:18
  You know Bitcoin is the median CAGR of Bitcoin right now is
• 34:22
  somewhere between 40 and 45% annually.
• 34:25
  So between now and 2020, 2025 and 2030, sort of a a rough
• 34:33
  approximation for what most people need is some somewhere
• 34:36
  around 10 Bitcoin that's going to drop by a little more than
• 34:40
  half over the next five years purely because of bitcoins power
• 34:43
  lock growth trajectory. So that's where that it just so
• 34:47
  happens that you know, around and it's not exactly for if you
• 34:50
  look at the different ages, of course, but the, the spread
• 34:52
  there is much tight is much smaller than if you look further
• 34:55
  down down the timeline. So basically it's a, it's a
• 34:59
  function of, you know what most people will need starting in
• 35:04
  20-30 to continue to draw down at.
• 35:08
  And I, I can't remember if this applies for every single, you
• 35:14
  know, annual withdrawal rate. I know that we've, I've been
• 35:17
  looking at 100K most recently. So, but yeah, for that
• 35:20
  withdrawal rate, for example, that's what's going to take
• 35:24
  people to theoretically live on their Bitcoin pretty much with,
• 35:28
  you know, with 95% reliability until they live to about age
• 35:33
  100. So that's where that for value
• 35:36
  comes from, for I think it's for 100,000 a year.
• 35:40
  That man that, that and that's incredibly, that's incredibly
• 35:42
  bullish man. And, and again, I think it's
• 35:45
  that's a lot less than what people anticipated.
• 35:49
  And especially, you know, if especially for your kids guys,
• 35:53
  or, you know, if you're if you're still in your late teens
• 35:56
  or early 20s, like if you start now, we're going to run through
• 36:00
  a lot of this stuff. You need a lot less Bitcoin than
• 36:03
  you think, but I think the time is running out though.
• 36:06
  I think you have a small window of the next.
• 36:08
  I mean, I've been saying this for like 5 years now, but you
• 36:11
  know, it was a lot easier five years ago, but you still got
• 36:15
  time. But you know, you definitely
• 36:17
  want to, you definitely want to start stacking now.
• 36:19
  You don't want to wait five years from now.
• 36:21
  Like, you know, the US government basically said
• 36:24
  announcing to the world that has every intention of buying
• 36:26
  Bitcoin. You know, this public, this, you
• 36:29
  know, public company Bitcoin strategy thing is just getting
• 36:32
  started. By the way, I think it's going
• 36:34
  to completely change capital markets.
• 36:36
  My strategy success is sending shock waves like, and it, it, it
• 36:41
  outperformed NVIDIA, right? Even with the AI boom strategy
• 36:45
  still outperformed NVIDIA. I mean, to be fair, it came from
• 36:48
  a much smaller market cap, but still, that's still incredibly
• 36:51
  impressive. And again, the the regulatory
• 36:56
  clarity with the Genius Act passing Congress, you know,
• 37:00
  passing the Senate got the 6060 votes that it needed.
• 37:04
  So yeah, I mean, everything is looking really bright.
• 37:08
  It's probably a good idea to get some just in case this catches
• 37:10
  on. Anyways, guys, before we move on
• 37:12
  to the next segment, I do want to give a shout out to Simply
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• 40:32
  I'll take you directly to the stamp se-ed.com website.
• 40:35
  You can use promo code simply you get 15% off anything on the
• 40:38
  store. At the time of reporting, the
• 40:39
  Bitcoin price is $109,820 block height 8 hundred 898,033 sats
• 40:46
  per dollar still under 1911 market cap 2.18 trillion Bitcoin
• 40:52
  versus gold market cap 2 point 9.24% percentage issued 94.61%
• 40:58
  decline from all time high -2% realize monetary inflation .84%.
• 41:03
  Anyways, I talk a lot about this subject.
• 41:05
  I want to continue talking about this subject, the Overton
• 41:08
  window. We have to continue shifting the
• 41:09
  Overton window to the right, to the, to the correct side, to
• 41:13
  the, the side of less central banking and more Bitcoin, right?
• 41:18
  I always say Bitcoin or slavery, and those are the two choices
• 41:21
  that we have in front of us as a society, as the world.
• 41:24
  You either go in the side of Bitcoin, freedom, peace,
• 41:28
  prosperity, opportunity, or you go in the side of the future of
• 41:31
  Fiat, which are central bank digital currencies, which is I
• 41:33
  think another form of slavery. So our job as Bitcoiners, as
• 41:37
  content creators is to move that over to the window.
• 41:39
  We've done an incredible job at doing this.
• 41:42
  We did get a pro Bitcoin president in the White House,
• 41:44
  but that isn't enough. The next evolution of this is to
• 41:48
  get a anti central bank president in the White House.
• 41:52
  Some of the most recent interviews that I've been doing
• 41:54
  with senators and congressmen and congresswoman, I've been
• 41:57
  asking them said, I don't say it, but I basically I say it in
• 42:01
  a nice way. I say, you know, do you, do you
• 42:03
  like central banking? Do you, do you think central
• 42:05
  banking was a success? And those have been very
• 42:08
  interesting conversation. So we got to continue doing
• 42:10
  that. I have a clip from Tucker
• 42:11
  Carlson and he's even noticing as well.
• 42:14
  Again, Tucker's one of the most watched Bitcoin.
• 42:16
  I mean, not Bitcoin, but one of the most watched content
• 42:19
  creators on the face of the planet.
• 42:21
  I have a clip for you guys and then we'll talk about it.
• 42:23
  And so I've often thought if I were to retire, maybe I would
• 42:25
  start a political movement, a new party in the country where
• 42:28
  the whole purpose is to bring the banks to their knees and
• 42:31
  shut them down. Or just you encourage everyone
• 42:33
  who's deep in debt just stop-payment.
• 42:35
  How about 100 million people stop paying their car loans,
• 42:37
  their mortgages and their credit cards in the same way that
• 42:40
  Donald Trump once said, if you take a big enough loan from the
• 42:42
  bank, it's their problem. It's their problem.
• 42:44
  You're kind of in charge of the bank at that point.
• 42:46
  I would think it'd be kind of cool to do a crush the bank's
• 42:49
  political party where you just all of a sudden everyone stops
• 42:52
  payment at once. And then, you know, then you sit
• 42:54
  down with Jamie Dimon and renegotiate.
• 42:55
  What about that? I kind of like that.
• 42:57
  I would rather punish them incrementally and just let the
• 43:00
  demand for their horrible product dry up over time.
• 43:04
  Yeah. And let that be reflected a
• 43:06
  little bit of time in their stock price Instead of 1 morning
• 43:08
  in their stock price, 1 morning in the stock price, all the
• 43:11
  banks are broke. Feels a lot like 2008.
• 43:13
  There are a lot of downstream facts.
• 43:19
  So I mean, pretty crazy, really radical in my opinion, just the
• 43:25
  way that, you know, he's saying it.
• 43:27
  But again, I think people are waking up to the reality that,
• 43:30
  you know, central banking is somewhat of a scam in in my
• 43:34
  opinion, right? I think the way that he's
• 43:37
  basically saying, which is like stop paying.
• 43:39
  I mean, I don't agree with that. But anyways, I wanted to get
• 43:42
  your guys's thoughts. Yeah, So I, I like Tucker's
• 43:47
  thoughts here. I think Tucker is more aware
• 43:50
  that the situation we're living under is not a fair monetary
• 43:54
  system. I think he's very aware of the
• 43:56
  fact that to actually operate under a fair system, we need a
• 44:00
  pretty radical change. Again, Tucker's, Tucker's
• 44:04
  argument there. It's an interesting one.
• 44:05
  Just everybody stop paying loans on one day and then you
• 44:09
  renegotiate and tell the bankers, hey, these are the new
• 44:12
  rules we want to operate under. I'm probably more of a sly
• 44:17
  roundabout way maximalist. I do prefer the the Bitcoin
• 44:21
  approach and just completely opt in out of the system and just
• 44:26
  adopting a parallel system. Now, I think my thoughts on Dave
• 44:29
  Ramsey, he obviously doesn't understand Bitcoin.
• 44:32
  Everybody's seen the clips of him bashing on Bitcoin, hating
• 44:34
  on Bitcoin, telling people it's a scam.
• 44:37
  And more recently it's really interesting, but he show people
• 44:40
  on his show are starting to pivot on Bitcoin.
• 44:43
  But I think Dave Ramsey's approach kind of ignores the
• 44:46
  fact that central banking helps prop up the stock prices of
• 44:50
  these banks. So again, Dave Ramsey's
• 44:53
  argument, in a logical kind of way, it makes sense.
• 44:57
  Oh, it's a free market approach. Let's just stop supporting the
• 45:00
  bank's faulty product. And in a fair system, this would
• 45:04
  reflect in the bank's share prices decreasing, right?
• 45:07
  But what Dave misses is we don't operate under a fair system.
• 45:12
  We're using that. They are using the money printer
• 45:15
  to artificially boost their share price.
• 45:18
  So everybody knows that the banks do not have a fair
• 45:21
  product. Nobody wants to use the bank's
• 45:23
  product. Everybody knows that you cannot
• 45:25
  retire by putting dollars in the bank and getting a 1% payment on
• 45:31
  your money in the bank that you're giving to the bank for
• 45:34
  your interest when the debasement rate is 10% per year.
• 45:37
  It's impossible to retire by putting money in the bank.
• 45:40
  Everybody's aware the fact that they have a bad product.
• 45:42
  But again, the share prices of these banks will never reflect
• 45:46
  reality because they can borrow money for a lot cheaper than you
• 45:49
  who can borrow money for. And what they're going to do is
• 45:51
  borrow billions and trillions of dollars, and they're going to
• 45:55
  prop up their own share price with stock buybacks.
• 45:58
  This is, again, to your point, Nico, and with central banking,
• 46:02
  the world is not fair. Reality is not reflected in a
• 46:05
  world where the elite, the politicians, the bankers and the
• 46:09
  central bankers, they are exempt from the same rules that we have
• 46:13
  to follow. Yeah, 100 percent, 100% agree
• 46:16
  with you. And then again, you know, we
• 46:18
  always hear about democracy. And you know how, you know, the
• 46:21
  people have a say. You know, they don't have a say
• 46:24
  on who the chairman of the Fed is.
• 46:26
  They don't really have a say of who, who is leading the European
• 46:28
  Central Bank, Right. Anyways, I do want to get
• 46:33
  Smitty. What are your thoughts on this
• 46:34
  my friend? Yeah, I think I agree with a lot
• 46:38
  of what Luke just said. I think the first thing that
• 46:40
  strikes me is the irony, I think which you guys probably
• 46:42
  detective somebody who is keen to what the inherent root cause
• 46:49
  of the problem is interviewing a guy who is from a legacy
• 46:53
  financial standpoint, has a lot, I think has a lot of really
• 46:55
  great rock solid advice for a lot of people.
• 46:57
  But the problem is that it's all rooted in the legacy system,
• 47:01
  right? Or at least it's work.
• 47:03
  It's, it's, they've happened to live through a time where that
• 47:06
  legacy system hasn't really started to come to a head with
• 47:10
  this exponential, you know, debt spending and, and the kinds of
• 47:15
  all the Fiat problems that that we're all aware of.
• 47:17
  Who the irony around that I think is just palpable.
• 47:20
  Because if, if Bitcoin was sort of in introduced into the
• 47:24
  conversation, I think it would be really interesting as a round
• 47:26
  two between these two, especially because I just saw, I
• 47:30
  just saw in the show recently somebody on, I think it's on.
• 47:34
  It was somebody on Dave Ramsey's staff, if I'm not mistaken, was
• 47:38
  they actually turn it. The tides are turning a little
• 47:40
  bit on a show. This is a first just in the last
• 47:42
  couple weeks, as Luke mentioned, where they're actually
• 47:44
  recommending, I think some amount of exposure to, I think
• 47:48
  it's still fairly low, but I think they're starting to.
• 47:50
  And, and I think one other thing that Luke pointed out that I
• 47:53
  also think was interesting is that I think Luke, you said a
• 47:57
  lot of people realize that they're that they're working
• 47:59
  with a bad product here. I think the thing I would add to
• 48:02
  that is that yes, but it's unfortunate and unfortunately so
• 48:06
  I think that the masses of people in retail are the ones
• 48:09
  who like they've always been getting screwed are the ones who
• 48:12
  are not understanding it quite enough.
• 48:14
  In which I'd like to see people understand a lot more is the
• 48:17
  people who are not in the wealthier class or the ultra
• 48:20
  wealthy class were part of leadership in various
• 48:23
  institutions who are definitely hip to, to the fact that this is
• 48:27
  a, a broken product. And, and I, I think
• 48:30
  unfortunately, and, you know, it's kind of a double edged
• 48:32
  sword right now. We're moving into the sort of
• 48:34
  institutional phase of Bitcoin, which I think ultimately is a
• 48:36
  good thing for, for expanding and, and maybe turning this
• 48:41
  thing into a Bitcoin standard, so to speak, to, to use a worn
• 48:44
  out term. But I think still the thing that
• 48:46
  that's unfortunate to me is that the people who are watching this
• 48:49
  fundamentally are still not, you know, the lay person out there
• 48:53
  who people like me, they're, they're not understanding quite
• 48:55
  enough the technical reasons why this is so broken.
• 48:58
  Why why that's so, why that's so inherently why the the cards are
• 49:06
  sort of stacked again against them because of technological
• 49:09
  problems, But but which are that which is being taken advantage
• 49:13
  of fundamentally by the banking system.
• 49:16
  So. Yeah, 100% I think.
• 49:19
  But again, like, I think the importance here is the the
• 49:21
  Overton window is definitely shifting.
• 49:23
  I think people are starting to notice.
• 49:25
  I think people are starting to get frustrated.
• 49:27
  They're starting to say, hey, listen, we were promised
• 49:29
  something. The outcome is not what we were
• 49:31
  promised. They're they're starting to get
• 49:33
  frustrated. They're starting to ask
• 49:34
  questions. Imagine where we're going to be
• 49:36
  10 years from now, right? And I think that's just a really
• 49:39
  important question that I think, you know, we have to ask, right?
• 49:43
  So anyways, guys, it's going to be a great show.
• 49:45
  We're going to hit the new segment.
• 49:46
  We're going to be talking about the strategic Bitcoin reserve
• 49:49
  bill passes in the great state of Texas.
• 49:53
  The governor is bullish on it. He actually posted about it
• 49:56
  yesterday. And Michigan proposes bold
• 49:59
  crypto legislation, Bitcoin pension, CBDC ban and mining
• 50:03
  incentives. And then of course, during the
• 50:05
  culture segment, we're going to be doing a deeper breakdown on
• 50:09
  Smitty's guide, essentially Smitty's Bitcoin retirement
• 50:12
  guide. So we will be right back in just
• 50:15
  a segment. Second, we're going to hit the
• 50:16
  news. I want to give a shout out to
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• 52:43
  So what is the breaking news today?
• 52:45
  Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill passes in Texas is the second
• 52:48
  state in the United States to pass a strategic Bitcoin reserve
• 52:52
  bill. To get specific, the House of
• 52:55
  Representatives in Texas pass SB 21 yesterday, which would create
• 53:00
  a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the state, mirroring the one
• 53:02
  created by President Trump's executive.
• 53:04
  Order. Why it matters A third state
• 53:06
  could have a place to put Bitcoin, following New Hampshire
• 53:09
  and Arizona. Yes, but the House made an
• 53:11
  amendment to the bill, so it has to go to the conference before
• 53:14
  it passes. Lee Bratcher of the Texas Block
• 53:17
  Blockchain Council tells us that he expects it to move through
• 53:20
  conference easily. What we're watching June 1st is
• 53:23
  the last today Texas could pass a concurrent resolution.
• 53:26
  However, according to Axios reading of the legislative
• 53:29
  calendar, so there is not a ton of time what they're saying
• 53:32
  already home of crypto mining this legislation session, Texas
• 53:36
  should become the crypto capital.
• 53:38
  And again, here is the governor basically confirming that, you
• 53:42
  know, Bitcoin is essentially this new era for the state and
• 53:45
  for finance. So this is most definitely going
• 53:48
  to get signed into law. This is again the 2nd state that
• 53:52
  essentially signing into law that they have every intention
• 53:54
  of making a strategic Bitcoin reserve following the state of
• 53:57
  New Hampshire, Arizona had the opportunity to be the first
• 54:00
  state, but actually the governor, Katie Hobbs actually
• 54:03
  vetoed the bill, which I found interesting.
• 54:05
  She actually made it more difficult from a regulatory
• 54:08
  perspective. So yeah, I mean you know,
• 54:10
  bullish on you know, the great state of Texas and moving on to
• 54:14
  Michigan. So Michigan proposes bold crypto
• 54:16
  legislation, Bitcoin pensions, CBDC ban, and mining incentives.
• 54:22
  It goes on to say Michigan lawmakers introduce 4 crypto
• 54:25
  related bills focusing on Bitcoin pensions, a state level
• 54:29
  ban on CBDC's, and GRIP green mining incentives.
• 54:33
  House Bill 4510 allows public retirement funds to invest in
• 54:37
  Bitcoin via ETFETETPS. House Bill 4511 seeks to block
• 54:44
  state support for U.S. central bank digital currencies.
• 54:47
  I don't know why a state would support a CBDC, but anyways, two
• 54:50
  additional bills would promote the use of abandoned oil wells
• 54:54
  for Bitcoin mining tied to environmental remediation
• 54:57
  efforts. So again, this is a trend that
• 54:59
  we're seeing all over the US, different states.
• 55:02
  It's one of the things that I love about the US to have the
• 55:05
  states have individual sovereignty.
• 55:07
  They have their own house, they have their own Senate, and they
• 55:10
  have their own form of a president, which I would say is
• 55:12
  a governor, and they're all passing.
• 55:14
  You're seeing this across the line, whether it's a red state
• 55:17
  or a blue state, you're seeing pro Bitcoin legislation being
• 55:20
  pressed, all being passed all over the United States.
• 55:23
  And this is very bullish for the federal government because
• 55:25
  essentially it puts pressure on them.
• 55:27
  And then it becomes a competition between the federal
• 55:30
  strategic Bitcoin reserve and the individual state strategic
• 55:33
  Bitcoin reserves. And I would say the more Bitcoin
• 55:36
  these states accumulate, the more sovereignty they'll have,
• 55:39
  right? So I think that's really bullish
• 55:40
  as well. So anyways, I want to get your
• 55:42
  guys's perspective, starting with you, Smitty, and then we'll
• 55:44
  move on to Luke. Yeah, amazing trend of news here
• 55:48
  for sure. This is a second.
• 55:50
  I almost thought at this point it was the 3rd state but I saw
• 55:52
  sending out the Texas news the other day.
• 55:55
  To all my friends and family who care about this, who, who
• 55:58
  appreciate why this is so important.
• 56:01
  There's the sovereignty aspect. I guess couple things come to
• 56:05
  mind for me. One is game theory.
• 56:08
  We're seeing the dominoes start to fall.
• 56:10
  There's AI mean there's there's detractors of this book, but
• 56:13
  there's the software theory. I think it's pretty cool within
• 56:16
  the US, you can start to see these dominoes fall within a
• 56:19
  single country, which is I think a, a bit of a microcosm in a way
• 56:24
  of what we're going to start to see play out on the global stage
• 56:26
  as well. It all comes down to a way to
• 56:29
  defend. I think I, I would even go as
• 56:33
  far as they're saying their national security, their
• 56:35
  economy, trying to attract more people to come to their
• 56:40
  jurisdictions to be able to do business in a secure way, in a,
• 56:43
  in a, in a business friendly way.
• 56:45
  I think this is extremely bullish.
• 56:48
  And I guess one other thing that came to to mind for me is a
• 56:51
  question because you, both of you gentlemen, I just found out
• 56:54
  have been in Bitcoin for almost twice as long as I have, I
• 56:58
  think. And so one thing that comes to
• 57:00
  mind for me is like, did you imagine anything like this
• 57:04
  happening? You know, for me like 3 or 4
• 57:06
  years ago, let alone three or four years ago, but you know,
• 57:09
  6-7 years ago, was this something that was a total pie
• 57:14
  in the sky fantasy, something a lofty hope, but I can only
• 57:19
  imagine, you know, 2 cycles ago. So pretty amazing.
• 57:23
  So for me in 2020, I believed heavily and strongly in the
• 57:30
  models like the power law model and I would have believed in the
• 57:33
  quantile model if that was around in 2020 because I saw
• 57:38
  validity in using the past the 1st 12 years of Bitcoin and
• 57:42
  extrapolating that forward because nothing had changed.
• 57:45
  So in my eyes, I thought, OK, before 2020, we've only really
• 57:49
  had retail into the Bitcoin space and we're only living in
• 57:52
  an environment when more and more people are putting Bitcoin
• 57:54
  on the exchanges for sale. So in 2020, if you had of told
• 57:58
  me, hey, in five years time, president of America would be,
• 58:02
  you know, saying he wants to be the crypto capital of the world.
• 58:05
  We have sovereign wealth funds all around the world, Norwegian
• 58:08
  sovereign wealth fund, South Korea's pension fund, Japan's
• 58:12
  pension fund. Talking about Bitcoin, all the
• 58:14
  Middle Eastern countries FOMO into Bitcoin, billionaires
• 58:18
  putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet, 200 public companies
• 58:20
  putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet.
• 58:22
  If you had of told me all all of this would be happening in 2025,
• 58:25
  back in 2020, I would have said there's absolutely no way that
• 58:29
  that would have happened. And if it was happening in 2025,
• 58:33
  the price of Bitcoin would be 5 to $10 million a coin and all of
• 58:37
  these models will get broken to the upside.
• 58:39
  So again, I think this is the asymmetry.
• 58:41
  This is I think why buying Bitcoin today at $100,000 is an
• 58:46
  absolute bargain because I think the fundamentals of Bitcoin are
• 58:49
  completely different to the price.
• 58:51
  But what are you, Nico? You've been in Bitcoin the
• 58:53
  longest out of all of us. I think I might have got in
• 58:55
  about 2018. When did you get in and what do
• 58:58
  you think about how quickly things are changing these days?
• 59:01
  Yes, I got in 2016. I think part of the coping
• 59:05
  mechanism that we used from the 2017 bull market to the 2018
• 59:09
  was, Oh no, you know, it's going to be OK guys, because you know,
• 59:13
  the institutions are coming, you know, you know, the states are
• 59:15
  going to buy Bitcoin. Like that was like one of the
• 59:17
  copes that we use to like kind of justify that 80% drawdown.
• 59:22
  Well, they're here now. Just, you know, we were a little
• 59:25
  bit early. We were, you know, 7 or whatever
• 59:27
  years early. But they're here, The
• 59:29
  institutions are here, the states are here.
• 59:32
  And, you know, this is essentially everything that we
• 59:36
  imagine would happen due to the game theory.
• 59:40
  It's happening. It's happening in real time.
• 59:42
  It's playing out in real time. And obviously, you know, it's,
• 59:46
  it's, you know, it's, it's fascinating to kind of see it.
• 59:49
  I, I think we all knew that it was coming.
• 59:51
  But the only thing that I would say that we didn't anticipate
• 59:54
  was that it, it happened a lot sooner than we all could have
• 59:58
  predicted, right? So I think that part is
• 1:00:02
  absolutely crazy and insane. But yeah, man, I mean, it's,
• 1:00:07
  it's bullish overall. And I think that this trend is
• 1:00:10
  just going to continue. And you'll see once these states
• 1:00:13
  start benefiting from Bitcoin and like all of us, benefit from
• 1:00:16
  Bitcoin if you adopt Bitcoin. And you put it on your balance
• 1:00:20
  sheet, you're going to start to see how essentially, you know,
• 1:00:26
  every other state's going to follow suit because they're
• 1:00:28
  going to see it Like, you know, it's kind of like the strategy
• 1:00:30
  move. Like it's kind of like when you
• 1:00:31
  hear about a friend who's been holding Bitcoin for a cycle or
• 1:00:34
  two, you're like, oh, I should probably get some because this
• 1:00:37
  is a pretty good idea, right? So, yeah, I suspect these trends
• 1:00:40
  are going to continue. So just bullish overall.
• 1:00:43
  Guys, stay tuned. We're going to hit the culture
• 1:00:44
  segment in just a SEC and talk to Smitty about his crazy, crazy
• 1:00:49
  guide, how much Bitcoin you need to retire depending on the
• 1:00:51
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  Hi everybody, we are back. Luke, I believe this is your
• 1:02:59
  screen, is it not? This is, and this is a very
• 1:03:02
  bullish screen to be looking at because this model that Smitty's
• 1:03:06
  put together. Smitty, do you want to walk us
• 1:03:08
  through what we're looking at here?
• 1:03:10
  I really love that on the bottom part of the screen, the guys can
• 1:03:15
  have a look at what age and at what year you need to retire.
• 1:03:19
  So we're looking at age 5152530545, 5565, and 75.
• 1:03:26
  And I just love how your chart breaks it down by year, how much
• 1:03:30
  you need to retire. So walk us through what we're
• 1:03:32
  looking at here, Smitty. Wonderful.
• 1:03:35
  Yeah, thanks for having it up here.
• 1:03:36
  Yeah, first of all, so the latest iteration of this site,
• 1:03:39
  which kind of went decent, decent amount viral as as far as
• 1:03:45
  my perspective. I think one thing that added a
• 1:03:48
  lot of value this time around is that tabular view that I added
• 1:03:52
  below the the chart. Because I found over the time
• 1:03:54
  that you have two kinds of people, very visual graphically
• 1:03:58
  sort of inclined people. You got a lot of people that
• 1:04:00
  they just want to chart, I mean, or sorry, they just want a
• 1:04:02
  table, right? They're going to look up table.
• 1:04:04
  So OK, what's the value when I have these two variables
• 1:04:07
  intersect And so the two of these first of all, they
• 1:04:10
  correspond 1 to 1. So the numbers that are
• 1:04:12
  populating that table on the bottom are the same values that
• 1:04:16
  are that you would find if you, you know found the intersection
• 1:04:20
  of the X&Y axis on the chart above.
• 1:04:23
  So what this is, is it's a tool that is what it does is it
• 1:04:27
  solves forgiven your current age today and you know this date in
• 1:04:31
  2025 and has two inputs that your current age and the future
• 1:04:37
  year. There's five year increments
• 1:04:40
  here, but you can kind of do your own interpolation here.
• 1:04:42
  Usually it's not, you know, you can find the average between the
• 1:04:45
  two, your future year that you plan to be able to retire.
• 1:04:49
  And it, and then it's the output would be the values that are in
• 1:04:53
  each of those cells that kind of range from a a darker Gray or
• 1:04:57
  black color up to a bright orange color, depending on your
• 1:05:00
  age. That's the number of Bitcoin you
• 1:05:02
  need given that year and given the age that you currently are
• 1:05:05
  today. And then there's a bunch of,
• 1:05:08
  there's a handful of assumptions that I can get into, but
• 1:05:10
  basically it's just trying to answer the question if, and I'm
• 1:05:13
  not this, by the way, one big caveat here, I'm not trying to
• 1:05:16
  recommend to anybody by any means that what you should do is
• 1:05:19
  you should save up enough Bitcoin and then actually start
• 1:05:23
  spending that down as a way to retire.
• 1:05:25
  This is trying to give a basis to answer the question of how
• 1:05:29
  much Bitcoin should I stack? And so it's, for me, it's a
• 1:05:32
  hard, it's hard to think of a, it's hard to think of a lot of
• 1:05:35
  other sort of objective reason or basis for why you would want
• 1:05:42
  to solve for what that number is other than, OK, if I absolutely
• 1:05:46
  had to starting from this age, I'd want at least enough.
• 1:05:49
  I'd want at least enough to where if I spent this amount
• 1:05:52
  down every year until until the age of death, then I would have
• 1:05:58
  enough to be able to do that comfortably.
• 1:06:00
  So it's not a recommendation, It's not a prescription.
• 1:06:02
  This is this is more of a description of where you'd be at
• 1:06:04
  based on that target, yeah. I love it.
• 1:06:09
  It is so bullish. Some of the numbers that really
• 1:06:13
  stick out to me is, again, I am, you know, I'm 28.
• 1:06:18
  I might look a little bit older when I've got the bloodshot eyes
• 1:06:21
  like I do today as I'm trying to battle a little bit of jet lag.
• 1:06:25
  But I am only 28, believe it or not.
• 1:06:27
  But what I'm interested is if I'm 25 years old, if I want to
• 1:06:32
  retire by 2035, I only need 2.41 Bitcoin.
• 1:06:38
  That's pretty bullish. And again, the further out,
• 1:06:41
  let's say I want to be more conservative and I want to
• 1:06:43
  retire by 2045 S in 20 years time, I could retire at the
• 1:06:48
  ripe, hopefully young age of 48 with only 1.07 Bitcoin today.
• 1:06:55
  That's very, very interesting and very optimistic, in my eyes
• 1:06:59
  anyway. 100% and actually, so you said you're 28, right?
• 1:07:04
  So you would be a little closer to the cell above it then closer
• 1:07:07
  to 25. So you'd be still 20 year time.
• 1:07:10
  You'd need roughly just a little less than 1.2, but it's, you
• 1:07:15
  know, 1.1 ish probably right. Me on the other hand, I'm 36, so
• 1:07:20
  I'm, I'm closest to that age 35 bucket.
• 1:07:22
  So if I was taking the same plan as you, looking at a 20 year,
• 1:07:26
  you know, work for the next 20 years, I want to make sure I
• 1:07:28
  have enough to where if I need to spend down.
• 1:07:32
  And by the way, this, this single view that you're showing
• 1:07:35
  here is for somebody who has roughly in $2025 a total annual
• 1:07:42
  living expenses of $100,000 a year.
• 1:07:45
  So that may not apply to everybody, but I think it's, it
• 1:07:48
  captures a decent amount of people.
• 1:07:50
  There's families, there's people who live in other countries that
• 1:07:53
  are more expensive, of course, but I think this is a good
• 1:07:56
  starting. If this is what you're expected
• 1:07:59
  annual living costs are for the rest of your life, then this is
• 1:08:02
  a good This is a good map of how to do that.
• 1:08:05
  Well, that's why I'm even more like, that's why I think this
• 1:08:08
  model is optimistic and bullish because that's a great caveat
• 1:08:11
  you mentioned there, Smitty. This is assuming you want to
• 1:08:13
  spend $100,000 a year. Now, again, $100,000 a year here
• 1:08:19
  in Peru, you're living like a damn king for $100 a year, let
• 1:08:23
  me tell you. And most places in South
• 1:08:25
  America, again, there's obviously some cities where it's
• 1:08:29
  a little bit different. Like I'm here in Madrid right
• 1:08:31
  now, Madrid's for housing. It's a lot more expensive here
• 1:08:34
  in Madrid. But again, I think $100,000 per
• 1:08:38
  year, like you're living upper class for I think the majority
• 1:08:42
  of the world, unless you're living in some of these big
• 1:08:45
  western cities like, you know, Miami, LA, London, Madrid,
• 1:08:50
  Sydney, Australia, I think you're living very well for 100
• 1:08:54
  KA year. That's why I think the model is
• 1:08:56
  very bullish and very optimistic.
• 1:08:58
  I agree with you and that the other thing I'll mention is it's
• 1:09:01
  not. Some of these things aren't
• 1:09:02
  immediately obvious unless you read my post that comes along
• 1:09:05
  with it. But that's $100,000 a year again
• 1:09:07
  in 2025 dollars. So what this model does is every
• 1:09:11
  subsequent year from the year of your retirement, it adjusts that
• 1:09:15
  up by an annual compounding rate of 7%.
• 1:09:19
  So that's pretty. That's even.
• 1:09:21
  Just to go to your point, I think that's even more bullish,
• 1:09:24
  right, is that this is accounting for the fact that to
• 1:09:26
  account for cost of living increase because of inflation
• 1:09:30
  using about 7%, which I think is actually pretty.
• 1:09:33
  I can get into why I think that's even.
• 1:09:34
  That's still pretty conservative.
• 1:09:37
  So every year you're compounding, you're increasing
• 1:09:39
  that by a compounding rate of 7%.
• 1:09:41
  So that starts to become a lot, you know, 10 years, 15 years, 20
• 1:09:44
  years down the line. And this is even accounting for
• 1:09:46
  that. And it's the idea is so that you
• 1:09:48
  can always assume that every year until the day you die,
• 1:09:52
  you're holding constant. You're basically your quality of
• 1:09:55
  of life is what that's trying to do.
• 1:09:58
  Yeah, I love that. I mean 100 KA year you're I
• 1:10:02
  didn't know where that puts you in, in regards to, you know,
• 1:10:05
  your quality of life, but I'm assuming that might put you in
• 1:10:09
  the top 10% of people globally, if not higher. 100 KA year is
• 1:10:13
  it's it's a very nice way to live.
• 1:10:15
  I know the median income over there in Australia is something
• 1:10:17
  like 40 to 50,000 U.S. dollars. So again, the 100.
• 1:10:23
  Percent well above the median, right.
• 1:10:25
  And I think, I think again, in the US, we tend to be pretty US
• 1:10:28
  centric sometimes. And I think there's a huge swath
• 1:10:30
  of a huge swaths of the world that this, like you said, this
• 1:10:33
  is what this would be like living like royalty,
• 1:10:35
  essentially. So I I I'm with you.
• 1:10:39
  And for the younger people as well, like if we jump on on over
• 1:10:42
  to the chart, like if you're young and it's 2025, let's say
• 1:10:46
  you're like, you know, 20 for example, like you can retire
• 1:10:50
  with some pretty low amounts of Bitcoin, say you're 20 or even
• 1:10:54
  closer to that age 15 bucket. You're just entering the
• 1:10:57
  workforce. Like you can hypothetically
• 1:10:59
  retire with 0.7 Bitcoin by 2060, zero .84 Bitcoin by 2055.
• 1:11:07
  So that's in 30 years. And if you're like, what, 1617
• 1:11:11
  just started work, I know a lot of people who are young, they
• 1:11:13
  don't have the biggest incomes. They're kind of like, I can't
• 1:11:16
  afford to get four or five or six Bitcoin to retire.
• 1:11:19
  But again, this model says, look, you can, you can retire on
• 1:11:22
  .84 Bitcoin by 2055, Thirty years in the future, you'd be
• 1:11:25
  retiring in your 40s and you don't need a full coin to do
• 1:11:29
  that. So again, I I think this paints
• 1:11:31
  a very bullish and optimistic future for people.
• 1:11:34
  That's key, I think, for a lot of people looking at what my
• 1:11:36
  hope was, you know, a lot of these people could be using this
• 1:11:39
  for not only themselves, but thinking about their family,
• 1:11:42
  their kids, maybe even their grandkids, because they want to
• 1:11:44
  plan out. You know, and I'm certainly
• 1:11:46
  doing this myself is how much do I need to just sock away and
• 1:11:50
  gift to my kids? And maybe, you know what my kids
• 1:11:53
  kids would need. And it's a very optimistic view,
• 1:11:55
  right? It's like you don't you can you
• 1:11:57
  can save a fraction of a Bitcoin and hand it over to your
• 1:11:59
  toddler. And I mean, you know, why would
• 1:12:02
  you ever, yeah, it maybe you have other sort of educational
• 1:12:06
  retirement funds. You know, if you got 529 plans,
• 1:12:08
  you've got this and that. But to put this away and forget
• 1:12:12
  about it is, I think, incredible Peace of Mind for a lot of
• 1:12:15
  people who are worried about the the the upcoming generations.
• 1:12:20
  So absolutely, I mean it, dude, it goes.
• 1:12:23
  I love how you break it down. You break it down from 5 years
• 1:12:25
  old to 100 years old, so. Like there, there was a comment,
• 1:12:31
  there was a. Comment There was a lady in
• 1:12:33
  France that lived to 120. So, you know, dude, you gotta,
• 1:12:39
  you gotta, you gotta change that model bro, 'cause you know, like
• 1:12:42
  what people live longer. That's very fair.
• 1:12:45
  That's very fair. I, I, there are things that I
• 1:12:47
  had to make a decision to sort of leave off the map here, so to
• 1:12:51
  speak, because I just can't include everything, but I would
• 1:12:54
  definitely be happy to, to form an update here.
• 1:12:57
  I know people are going to start living longer.
• 1:12:59
  I think for 99.9% of people, if you're starting to get to age
• 1:13:03
  100 and above, I mean, let's be honest, I think I am again, I'm,
• 1:13:07
  I'm not speaking for those outliers.
• 1:13:09
  I think quality of life is probably not super that could
• 1:13:12
  change with given technology. So that's a good point.
• 1:13:15
  That's a good that might be something I take a closer look
• 1:13:17
  at a future edition. But one one funny comment to the
• 1:13:21
  age 5 and up is somebody made a comment about I like how you
• 1:13:25
  included down to age 5 for a retirement plan right and my.
• 1:13:29
  Oh, it's true, It's true. Bro, well, I had to, I I had to
• 1:13:31
  make you know, it's, it's I'm including retirement plan.
• 1:13:36
  Oh, there's no better retirement than there's no better
• 1:13:39
  retirement plan than from diapers to diapers.
• 1:13:42
  No, no, no, it's true because look as as a parent, I just had
• 1:13:45
  my first daughter, right? Like like she's getting a she's
• 1:13:49
  getting a portion of my stack or I hope she does.
• 1:13:51
  Actually, I don't own any Bitcoin, but you know, if I did
• 1:13:53
  own Bitcoin, I would be I would want to give it to her and this
• 1:13:56
  kind of helps me kind of plan it out for her right.
• 1:14:00
  So I think that's very important.
• 1:14:02
  Smitty, huge fan of your work, bro.
• 1:14:05
  Keep doing what you're doing. You guys are crushing it.
• 1:14:07
  Shout out to Cena and plan C amazing content guys.
• 1:14:12
  We are reaching the top of the hour.
• 1:14:14
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• 1:15:02
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• 1:15:06
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• 1:15:14
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• 1:15:16
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• 1:15:19
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• 1:15:23
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