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Trump Rings Opening Bell, Heads to NATO Summit · Balance of Power

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  Speaker 2: Checking on the markets as we kick off the post
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  Speaker 2: holiday trading week, Thank you so much obviously as a
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  Speaker 2: positive one for equity markets today. And that means that
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  Speaker 2: any money already housed and now millions of Trump accounts
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  Speaker 2: across the country, after the initial one thousand dollars in
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  Speaker 2: seed money provided by the Treasury for children that have
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  Speaker 2: been born since twenty twenty five, that money could be
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  Speaker 2: posing a little bit of a return today that we'll
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  Speaker 2: see how long it goes. Of course, the US Treasury
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  Speaker 2: argues that if that thousand dollars in seed money stays
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  Speaker 2: in these accounts and the maximum annual contribution of five
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  Speaker 2: thousand dollars is contributed every year, these accounts by a
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  Speaker 2: time a child turns eighteen could grow to two hundred
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  Speaker 2: and seventy one thousand dollars. That is the investment the
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  Speaker 2: administration says it is making in America's children, as we
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  Speaker 2: heard from the President as he rang the opening bell
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  Speaker 2: this morning in the Oval Office.
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  Speaker 3: Between individual contributions and the seed funds, eight hundred million
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  Speaker 3: dollars in new capital will be invested in the stock
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  Speaker 3: market for America's children this week. And I also think
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  Speaker 3: that we're going to be putting numbers in the budget,
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  Speaker 3: which will be really spectacular because it's doing a costing
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  Speaker 3: as anything.
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  Speaker 4: He did. In fact, ring the bell as it sat
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  Speaker 4: right on the resolute desk, it wasn't an actual I thought,
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  Speaker 4: maybe Kiley, they'd have like a Diet Coke style button
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  Speaker 4: where he would press the button and it would start
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  Speaker 4: the trading. But he actually took a gong and you
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  Speaker 4: took it to the gong something like that. He says
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  Speaker 4: he's going to take the bell with him, maybe into
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  Speaker 4: the ballroom. Either way, they're often running and this isn't
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  Speaker 4: the only thing the President is dealing with today. As
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  Speaker 4: we mentioned earlier, he'll be wheels up to Ankra later
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  Speaker 4: on this evening in the new Air Force One for
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  Speaker 4: this week's NATO summit. Helping us put this all together
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  Speaker 4: is Bloomberg Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall, can we start with
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  Speaker 4: the accounts. This seems to be pretty good politics for
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  Speaker 4: a president, whether you're hearing from the left or the right.
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  Speaker 4: It's one of the most bipartisan issues he's ever gotten
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  Speaker 4: his hands around.
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  Speaker 5: Widely bipartisan Joe and Kley, and comes at a really
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  Speaker 5: critical time for this White House as we know that
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  Speaker 5: the administration is contending with what has been headwinds around
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  Speaker 5: how Americans feel about the economy with the backdrop of
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  Speaker 5: the conflict in Iran. Now, as you both went through,
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  Speaker 5: this really also highlights the administration's policy pushes when it
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  Speaker 5: comes to working with the private sector. How many times
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  Speaker 5: did we hear President Trump highlight Michael Dell's standing behind him.
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  Speaker 5: Also that we got recently in the last week, this
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  Speaker 5: commitment from Micron two hundred and fifty million dollars that
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  Speaker 5: will benefit children in Idaho. It is interesting to see
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  Speaker 5: how all of these companies have their own provisions for
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  Speaker 5: how the money will be used, but more than fifty
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  Speaker 5: of them so far, according to our tally, have pledged support,
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  Speaker 5: whether that's with employer matches or additional seed funding. And
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  Speaker 5: it was interesting to hear both the Treasury Secretary but
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  Speaker 5: also President Trump use the word legacy. It is very
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  Speaker 5: clear that this is something under the one big beautiful
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  Speaker 5: Bill that we know the administration wants to tell. But
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  Speaker 5: in that clip there that you heard from the President,
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  Speaker 5: he seemed to indicate that maybe we'd ask Congress for
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  Speaker 5: additional funding to keep it going with of course opens
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  Speaker 5: up some questions on exactly what's on the legislative agenda
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  Speaker 5: going forward.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe that would work it's self into Reconciliation three
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  Speaker 2: point zero or be for a future presidential administration to
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  Speaker 2: try to extend. As obviously this only runs through twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty eight. In terms of the federal seed money that
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  Speaker 2: is domestic politics aside, Well, this may be a win
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  Speaker 2: for the president. His focus is going to shift to
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  Speaker 2: foreign policy pretty quickly, like by tonight as he boards
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  Speaker 2: the plane for the NATO summit. Tyler, knowing he spent
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  Speaker 2: time over the weekend speaking with the presidents of both
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine and Rush, does that suggest that he's going to
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  Speaker 2: want to see or have that top his priority list
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  Speaker 2: this summit.
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  Speaker 5: So we had actually heard from the President back at
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  Speaker 5: the G seven summit, where he openly told reporters that
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  Speaker 5: if they're able to get the Iran situation under control,
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  Speaker 5: I believe was his wording. Then perhaps there can be
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  Speaker 5: some renewed focus when it comes to Ukraine. We know
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  Speaker 5: certainly our European allies would like to start to draw
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  Speaker 5: more attention they're considering the talks at this point have
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  Speaker 5: all but stalled between Russia, Ukraine and the US. Perhaps
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  Speaker 5: we could see a push to help jump start those talks.
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  Speaker 5: We also know that the Ukrainian president is now confirmed
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  Speaker 5: bilateral meeting. But President Trump is going to have some
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  Speaker 5: pretty specific asks when it comes to additional security assistance,
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  Speaker 5: including the potential for another Patriot missile battery, something that
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  Speaker 5: has been a relatively contentious issue here in Washington. As
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  Speaker 5: Joe mentioned at the top of the program, we saw
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  Speaker 5: this bombardment from Russia which really exposed Ukraine's gaps in
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  Speaker 5: their air defense systems overnight.
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  Speaker 4: Well, there's a lot more to talk about there, of course,
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  Speaker 4: on both of these fronts. Tyler, whether it's the accounts,
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  Speaker 4: whether it's NATO president coming off of this holiday weekend,
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  Speaker 4: is he going to be watching the game tonight on
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  Speaker 4: the plane, because this is going to be a point
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  Speaker 4: of controversy that actually follows him. Belgium, incidentally, is paying
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  Speaker 4: two percent, not five in its defense spending to NATO,
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  Speaker 4: and the President will surely be ready to call them out.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean everything is diplomacy at this point, perhaps
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  Speaker 5: is soccer diplomacy. We'll have to see where it goes.
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  Speaker 5: No doubt defense spending will be at the forefront of
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  Speaker 5: the conversation. It's going to highlight really an underscore everything
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  Speaker 5: that we're going to talk about in the next few days.
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  Speaker 5: You had the NATO Secretary General Mark Rutta just earlier
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  Speaker 5: today saying that he's demanding that was the word our
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  Speaker 5: allies to put forwards more concise plans when it comes
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  Speaker 5: to how they will boost to defense spending. As you
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  Speaker 5: both know, five percent by twenty thirty five. That is
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  Speaker 5: the goal from this White House. Our analyst at Bloomberg
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  Speaker 5: Economics say the top five year Pean economies are at
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  Speaker 5: two and a half percent, but theay caution a lot
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  Speaker 5: of countries are not on track to meet that higher
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  Speaker 5: more loft Eagle.
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  Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall, thank you so much.
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  Speaker 2: Of course, Joe and I spoke with the Secretary General
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  Speaker 2: just a few weeks ago after his oval Office meeting
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  Speaker 2: with President Trump, and he told us that it's really
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  Speaker 2: about the defense industrial base. You can only invest the
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  Speaker 2: money and spend it so quickly because there's so much
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  Speaker 2: that needs to happen in terms of the ability to
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  Speaker 2: actually ramp up that portion of it. That said, it
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  Speaker 2: hasn't stopped the Secretary General and the President from demanding
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  Speaker 2: more of the members of NATO. The President, of course,
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  Speaker 2: repeatedly for months, has been talking about other countries need
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  Speaker 2: to spend more, and that he was disappointed with them
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  Speaker 2: for not stepping up to help the United States in
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  Speaker 2: the Strait of Hormuz, specifically in the aftermath of the
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  Speaker 2: operations being launched in Iran. This is what the President
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  Speaker 2: said over the course of March and April about the alliance.
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  Speaker 3: We're very disappointed with NATO because NATO has done absolutely nothing.
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  Speaker 3: They don't want to help us defend us right, and
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  Speaker 3: they're the ones that needed I'm.
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  Speaker 4: Very disappointed in NATO.
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  Speaker 3: We pay brillions of dollars for NATO and they weren't
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  Speaker 3: there for us.
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  Speaker 2: He feels that they weren't there for the United States.
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  Speaker 2: So how does that color his travels and the summit
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  Speaker 2: ahead this week? For more We turn now to the
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  Speaker 2: former US ambassador to NATO during the Obama administration, Ambassador
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  Speaker 2: Evo Doddler is back with us on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Ambassador,
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  Speaker 2: it's good to have you as we consider what will
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  Speaker 2: come of this summit in Acora. Knowing that the President
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  Speaker 2: himself has suggested he's really only attending as a favor
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  Speaker 2: to Turkish President Erdowan, who has a good relationship with
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  Speaker 2: Where would you where would you set the bar? What
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  Speaker 2: is a good outcome for the alliance here? Knowing how
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  Speaker 2: how fragile the alliance with the United States seems to
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  Speaker 2: be in particular.
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  Speaker 6: Well, to be frank, I think the bar is pretty low.
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  Speaker 6: Basically that the meeting happens and that nothing extraordinary comes
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  Speaker 6: out of it, much like the meeting a year ago
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  Speaker 6: when NATO agreed to this five percent target by twenty
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  Speaker 6: twenty five, sorry, twenty thirty five, there will be some
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  Speaker 6: review about how NATO countries are doing when it comes
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  Speaker 6: to spending. By the way, the United States doesn't spend
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  Speaker 6: five percent of GDP on defense. It's important to point
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  Speaker 6: that out there are NATO countries who are spending more
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  Speaker 6: as a percentage of GDP on defense.
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  Speaker 4: In the United States.
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  Speaker 6: That said, I think what everybody is hoping for is
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  Speaker 6: that it will be a quiet meeting, much like the
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  Speaker 6: G seven a few weeks ago. Perhaps some good news
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  Speaker 6: on the question of supports for Ukraine, but no real fireworks.
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  Speaker 4: That is now where the bar is set.
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  Speaker 6: We're now no longer looking towards NATO or the summit
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  Speaker 6: meetings to fundamentally change the direction of the alliance. The
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  Speaker 6: best thing that can be hoped for is that the
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  Speaker 6: alliance lives another day.
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  Speaker 4: Well, you are right. I think we're paying about three
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  Speaker 4: point six percent if my figures are correct. Ambassador, What
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  Speaker 4: do you make of the post? There were several of
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  Speaker 4: them that the President made on truth social about NATO
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  Speaker 4: ahead of the summit. This one from late yesterday he writes,
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  Speaker 4: ridiculous for the USA to continue along this one sided
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  Speaker 4: path when the relationship is not reciprocal. They were not
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  Speaker 4: there for us three exclamation points. Doesn't that say everything?
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  Speaker 4: How do you have a meeting after that? Why even go?
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  Speaker 6: Well, I mean, as you said, he's going because President Erdiwan,
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  Speaker 6: his good friend, asked him to. This is the same
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  Speaker 6: president who of course is putting his opposition in jail
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  Speaker 6: and putting him on trial for trump up regions. I mean,
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  Speaker 6: clearly the president doesn't really understand how NATO works. This
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  Speaker 6: isn't about whether the European country should be helping the
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  Speaker 6: United States when it comes to Iran and war in
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  Speaker 6: which they were neither const nor were asked to participate
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  Speaker 6: until after the fact and after it took place. And
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  Speaker 6: it ignores all the other ways in which the European
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  Speaker 6: countries are bolstering American security. First and foremost, the war
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  Speaker 6: could not have happened with regard to Iran without the
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  Speaker 6: support of basing structures that exist in Europe, most of
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  Speaker 6: which were available for the war against Iran, for refueling
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  Speaker 6: of airplanes and in many cases for launching bombers, strategic bombers,
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  Speaker 6: as they did from the UK. So the idea that
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  Speaker 6: NATO and Europeans didn't participate quote where there for US
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  Speaker 6: just ignores the fundamental geographic reality. More importantly, our allies,
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  Speaker 6: of course have been there for us. NATO has invoked
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  Speaker 6: in its entire seventy seven year history Article five the
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  Speaker 6: Collective Defense Commitment one time, which is when the United
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  Speaker 6: States was attacked by al Qaeda terrorists on September eleven,
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  Speaker 6: two thousand and one. At that point only invoked Article five.
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  Speaker 6: It participated in military operations, including in Afghanistan, at great
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  Speaker 6: sacrifice in blood and treasure. More than a thousand European
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  Speaker 6: allied countries lives were lost in this war, which was
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  Speaker 6: not a war that the United States that they wanted
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  Speaker 6: to fight or was even important for their national interest.
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  Speaker 6: It was what they did because of allies. And unfortunately,
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  Speaker 6: the President has fundamentally decided that what NATO was about
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  Speaker 6: is who pays how much and secondly, whether they will
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  Speaker 6: do what the United States want them to do. As
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  Speaker 6: he said, all he cares for is loyalty. That's not
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  Speaker 6: the basis of an alliance. It's a shared interest in
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  Speaker 6: the security of the Atlanta North Atlantic area. When it
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  Speaker 6: was threatened on September eleventh, the Europeans were there. And
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  Speaker 6: the hope that the Europeans now have is when it
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  Speaker 6: is threatened as it is today by Russia, the United
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  Speaker 6: States will be there.
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  Speaker 4: Well, let's talk.
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  Speaker 2: More about that, Ambassadors Joe and I mentioned. We know
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  Speaker 2: that the President did speak with both Vladimir Putin and
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: Bolombir Szlensky over the weekend. There will be a bilateral
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: meeting with Selenski at the summit this week, when the
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  Speaker 2: President has repeatedly suggested that he does think both sides
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  Speaker 2: want to see an negotiated end to this war, is
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  Speaker 2: the time actually right for that? What would be different
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  Speaker 2: about the circumstances both Ukraine and Russia now find themselves
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  Speaker 2: in compared to when we've had headfakes on this previously.
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, so the time is getting riper, so to say,
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  Speaker 6: because Russia is on its back foot. It's offensives on
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  Speaker 6: the ground in Ukraine have stalled, in fact are starting
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  Speaker 6: to be reversed, slowly, but nevertheless reversed. The cost that
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  Speaker 6: the Russian soldiers on the front line are undergoing as
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  Speaker 6: extraordinary about thirty five thousand Just remember thirty five thousand
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  Speaker 6: dead or seriously wounded each and every month, and the
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  Speaker 6: replacement of new recruits is smaller than that. Ninety seven
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  Speaker 6: percent of those people are killed or wounded by drones,
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  Speaker 6: no longer by direct fire from Ukrainian forces, And of
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  Speaker 6: course Ukraine is now targeting Russian energy infrastructure, leading to
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  Speaker 6: fundamental problems at the pump. For the first time, Russia,
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  Speaker 6: which is a petroleum producing country, is thinking about importing
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  Speaker 6: petroleum from India, and Ukraine has launched a major, major
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  Speaker 6: effort against crimea the area, the part that was the
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  Speaker 6: peninsula that was taken away from Ukraine by Russia back
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  Speaker 6: in twenty fourteen. So in some sense, yes, Ukraine is
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  Speaker 6: on the march. The Russians are feeling in terms of lives,
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  Speaker 6: They're feeling it in terms of treasure, They're feeling it
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  Speaker 6: in terms of public opinion. This is a good time
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  Speaker 6: to move forward, but it requires Vladimir Putin to understand
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  Speaker 6: that the best he can get is what he has now,
• 14:07
  Speaker 6: and he has insisted he wants more, and that has
• 14:09
  Speaker 6: been the problem all along.
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  Speaker 4: Ambassador. I know we didn't bring you on to talk
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  Speaker 4: about this, but the Royal Belgian Football Association is using
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  Speaker 4: words like astonished. They're investigating all potential options to protect
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: the fundamental principles of fair play in our sport. After
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: apparently the president got the red card reversed here on
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: Florent Baligan. If this is true and he picked up
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: the phone and managed to accomplish this, what's your reaction?
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  Speaker 4: Is this the new way that this has done well?
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  Speaker 6: I mean, Donald Trump's not known as a man who
• 14:43
  Speaker 6: plays by the rules, and we're now seeing that being
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  Speaker 6: translated into the World Cup, which is after all, the
• 14:51
  Speaker 6: biggest sporting event in the world. There's nothing like it.
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  Speaker 6: It unites people around the world to look at at
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  Speaker 6: the game of all games, and that game is now
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  Speaker 6: seen as being rigged because the President of the United
• 15:06
  Speaker 6: States personally intervened on behalf of off the US national team.
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  Speaker 6: It's shameful. I see that. UEFA, the European Football Association,
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  Speaker 6: has also pointed out that this is crossing a red
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  Speaker 6: line that shouldn't have been crossed. But that's the world
• 15:23
  Speaker 6: we now live in.
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  Speaker 4: A president of the United States. He did confirm earlier
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  Speaker 4: that he made the phone call Evo dald Thank you
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  Speaker 4: for the time, Ambassador. It's great to see you. Alongside
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: Kaylee Lines, I'm Joe Matthew will assemble our panel next
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: on Boover stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: have much more coming up after this.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch
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• 16:00
  Speaker 2: We're still recovering from the Fourth of July festivities, the
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: semi quinc centennial, and all of the poor air quality
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: that came in the after math of those celebrations. But
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: the celebrations maybe will continue depending on the outcome of
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: tonight's match between the US and Belgium. Yes, I would
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: imagine a lot of people will be staying up late
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: for this one, just like they had to stay up
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: late to watch the fireworks on Saturday night. And of
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: course the game may be influenced by the fact that
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: the star forward for the US men's national team, Valarin Balligan,
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: is going to be playing. He was supposed to be
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: suspended for this game, remember, because of the red card
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: in the last match, and many people fans of the
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: US national team thought that the ref made a bad call.
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: I understand this. I think refs made bad calls all
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: the time. I yelled frequently at ITV. The problem is,
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: I'm but a humble journalist. I have no power to
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: influence the situation. Apparently someone did have power to influence
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: the situation, though, and that would be President Trump, who
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: said today confirmed that he did indeed call the head
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  Speaker 2: of FIFA, Gianni Infantino, and asked them to review that
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: red card play.
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  Speaker 3: So I saw the play, and I'm a person that
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: loves sports, and he was a good athlete, and I
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: understand sports really well. And that wasn't a foul. That
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: wasn't even an infraction. There was two guys running full
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: speed that happened to crash into each other. He didn't
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: do anything wrong. And he's our best player, or one
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: of our best players, a very and he gave him
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  Speaker 3: a red card. But how do you penalize them for
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: a game that hasn't been played yet. It's very unfair.
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: You can't do that.
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: So yes, I asked for a review by FIFA. I
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: spoke to a man who's highly respected and by the way,
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: whose level of respect has gone up tenfold. And he
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: was good before this started. But you know, he really
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: pushed it in this country. I'm the one that got
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: them to do it. It was not Biden. Biden was asleep.
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  Speaker 3: I got him to do it.
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  Speaker 4: I got him to do it. So any questions that
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: existed this morning about whether the President was directly involved
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  Speaker 4: in this were put to rest immediately. By the President
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: himself and Senator Ted Cruz, who was there and made
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: clear this is partly why the President had the FIFA
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: trophy actually in the Oval office for so long. Remarkable
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: reporting today by the likes of the Wall Street Journal
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: and Axios, the TikTok of the events that happened behind
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: the scenes to unglue all of this. Howard Lutnick, the
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: Commerce Secretary who led the delegation to the Bosnia game,
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: was on the flight home when it all began. He
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: read FIFA's rules, began mapping out how the US might
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: contest the call. Enter Andrew Giuliani, yes Rudy Giuliani's son,
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: who's the director of the White House Task Force on
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: the World Cup. He started calling the lawyers and supporters
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: to pressure FIFA, all setting up the President for this
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: eventful phone call that he just described, knowing of course
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: that he's good friends with Johnny as he likes to
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: call him. And so we wanted to get to this,
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: at least the political aspects of it. But before we
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: bring in our political panel, we want to get to
• 19:06
  Speaker 4: the real sports here of the matter. With Randall Williams,
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: Bloomberg News Business of Sports reporter he's with us from
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: World Headquarters in New York and Randall, I love that
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: you're on the program. We're big fans of yours. I
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: never thought we'd actually have a reason to meet. What
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: do you think of all of this? What's going through
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: your head? And how much of an international incident did
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: the President just set up for tonight.
• 19:26
  Speaker 7: It's a firestorm, It's an absolute firestorm. And what I
• 19:29
  Speaker 7: would tell you is that all of the lawyers on
• 19:31
  Speaker 7: these planes that contacted FIFA, that were trying to figure
• 19:34
  Speaker 7: out an appeal for Flow Balligan, they were doing all
• 19:37
  Speaker 7: of their work, but there was one superpower, some one
• 19:40
  Speaker 7: superpowered person who could press their thumb on this scale,
• 19:43
  Speaker 7: and it was President Trump. And there was a lot
• 19:45
  Speaker 7: of murkiness around what happened, you know, who called and
• 19:48
  Speaker 7: what was said. But President Trump said it himself. He
• 19:50
  Speaker 7: made a call and asked them to review. But if
• 19:52
  Speaker 7: the lawyers were already reviewing things and FIFA rules at
• 19:56
  Speaker 7: the time of all of our understanding before yesterday was
• 19:58
  Speaker 7: that Flow was to sit out today's match, and so
• 20:01
  Speaker 7: President Trump asked them to review, and now Flow is playing.
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: Wow, Well, so is there precedent for this? Randall in
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: any previous in so much just how rare is it
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: for this to happen, and.
• 20:13
  Speaker 7: Not exactly at the knockout stage. So if you recall
• 20:16
  Speaker 7: months ago, Christiano Ronaldo received a red card, he you know,
• 20:19
  Speaker 7: sat out one match and then he was supposed to
• 20:21
  Speaker 7: sit out two matches of the qualifying rounds. FIFA waived
• 20:25
  Speaker 7: that and so Ronaldo was allowed to play. Now, the
• 20:27
  Speaker 7: issue with that and in fact, is that Rinaldo has
• 20:30
  Speaker 7: said this is going to be his last World Cup.
• 20:32
  Speaker 7: If this is truly his last, his last World Cup,
• 20:35
  Speaker 7: and then how is he going to serve those two
• 20:37
  Speaker 7: suspended games. Flow's suspension similarly has been you know, pushed off,
• 20:42
  Speaker 7: So when is he going to serve that suspension if
• 20:44
  Speaker 7: he is going to it all? It's one of those
• 20:47
  Speaker 7: things where the rules that FIFA has about appeals is
• 20:50
  Speaker 7: the issue here. The larger issue, however, is that President
• 20:54
  Speaker 7: Trump pressed his dumb on the scale, asked them to
• 20:56
  Speaker 7: review it, and FIFA, you know, they reviewed it and
• 20:58
  Speaker 7: found a loophole.
• 20:59
  Speaker 4: That allows Flow to play.
• 21:01
  Speaker 7: So what's stopping the UK, who had a player go
• 21:04
  Speaker 7: off yesterday with a red card as well, from calling
• 21:07
  Speaker 7: FIFA and saying, look, we think similarly, why can't our
• 21:10
  Speaker 7: guy play?
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I don't think kre Starmer is going to
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: get that same phone call. I don't think so either
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: that Donald Trump had the Royal Belgian Football Association Randall says,
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: it's astonished investigating all potential options. There'll be some sort
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: of appeal process or is this as good as done?
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: It's as good as done.
• 21:28
  Speaker 7: There is no FIFA. You know, they made a ruling
• 21:30
  Speaker 7: and the rules were the rules and saying that you know,
• 21:33
  Speaker 7: Flow was not to play against Belgium. Then they went
• 21:35
  Speaker 7: back against that rule. I would be I think we
• 21:38
  Speaker 7: would all be astonished. If Flow is not going to
• 21:40
  Speaker 7: play today. I expect him to. I think the world
• 21:43
  Speaker 7: should expect him to. But the global you know soccer
• 21:47
  Speaker 7: ecosystem is at a loss for words. They have never
• 21:51
  Speaker 7: seen anything like this, and it just begs the question
• 21:53
  Speaker 7: as to what the rules are and who can press
• 21:56
  Speaker 7: for what?
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: Indeed, it does just quickly Randal thirty seconds you saw
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: the play didn't deserve a red guard in your opinion.
• 22:06
  Speaker 7: By the rules, yes, now do I think, But I
• 22:09
  Speaker 7: think the rules are bad. I think that if it's
• 22:11
  Speaker 7: incidental contact and it shouldn't be, you know, you shouldn't
• 22:14
  Speaker 7: have to sit out now. Do I think that President
• 22:15
  Speaker 7: Trump should have presed this dumb on the scale? Absolutely not.
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: Wow, all right, that's the take from Randall Williams Bloomberg
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: Business of Sports Reporter.
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: Really appreciate you.
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: Joining us life FROL headquarters in New York, and let's
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: get the take of our political panel as well as
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: we assemble. Lester Munson, a Republican strategist and principle of
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: the International Practice at BGR Group, alongside Jamie Jackson, Democratic strategist,
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: former Senior Council to House Majority leader Stenni Hoyer and
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: founder of Vantage Global Media. Welcome to you both, Lester,
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: I got to come to you on this one. Is
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: the President using his power here for good? Or does
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: this raise serious concerns as these matches move forward?
• 22:56
  Speaker 8: This, Kaylee, this may be the most popular thing he's
• 23:00
  Speaker 8: done all year. There is no rule against calling the
• 23:04
  Speaker 8: head of FIFA. I think the head of FIFA likes
• 23:07
  Speaker 8: hearing from heads of state. In fact, Kier Starmer, who
• 23:10
  Speaker 8: was mentioned earlier, called to about the timing of England's
• 23:15
  Speaker 8: match yesterday. So this is something FIFA does. We're the
• 23:19
  Speaker 8: home team. I know something about sports too. The home
• 23:22
  Speaker 8: team is supposed to, you know, get a little bit
• 23:24
  Speaker 8: of an edge here. Good for President Trump for calling
• 23:28
  Speaker 8: the penalty seemed way out of bounds. And don't you
• 23:31
  Speaker 8: want to have the best players play against the best players.
• 23:34
  Speaker 8: I think everybody wins here. I really don't understand why
• 23:37
  Speaker 8: this is a problem.
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: What do you think about this, Jamie? Are you glad
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: your president picked up the phone and took action here?
• 23:46
  Speaker 9: I agree with Les. This definitely unified American soccer fans.
• 23:51
  Speaker 9: But ultimately I think that President said out of this one.
• 23:54
  Speaker 9: You know, regardless of what happens, whether the US male
• 23:57
  Speaker 9: team wins the it's always going to be a stigma
• 24:01
  Speaker 9: as to whether or not there was a fairness issue
• 24:04
  Speaker 9: with regard to this call. And so personally, I think
• 24:06
  Speaker 9: they should have played with one less man and moved
• 24:08
  Speaker 9: forward because I think the fact also that the game
• 24:12
  Speaker 9: is happening in North America, it makes this look even
• 24:15
  Speaker 9: more untoward when you have the president putting his finger
• 24:19
  Speaker 9: on the scale, So I think he should have stayed
• 24:20
  Speaker 9: out of this one. But to less It's point, I
• 24:23
  Speaker 9: definitely think this may have unified athletes in soccer fans.
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: Well, and perhaps unified the Belgians against the US at
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: least for this. Oh, we just got a headline from FIFA,
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: a statement FIFA has rejected Belgium's appeal on Baligan's red card.
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: So we were just talking about this brandal that there
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: was potentially an appeal process, but apparently that repeal will
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: not go forward and he will be playing this evening
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: as planned. So that's incredibly timely news. But let's talk
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: about the Belgians or the Europeans as the European Football
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: Association Lester obviously has taken issue with this. Knowing that
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: the president is about to head not to Brussels, where
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: NATO is headquartered, but to the NATO summit in Ankara.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: Is this going to create any any issues diplomatically?
• 25:11
  Speaker 8: Yeah? Which which international organization is he disrupting more? Is
• 25:15
  Speaker 8: it NATO or is it FIFA? I think that's the
• 25:17
  Speaker 8: big question of the week. A lot of the things
• 25:20
  Speaker 8: President Trump has done with respect to NATO are positive.
• 25:24
  Speaker 8: He's causing member states to increase their defense budgets and
• 25:28
  Speaker 8: related budgets for intelligence and things like that. That's a
• 25:30
  Speaker 8: good thing. Some of the rhetorics over the top, and
• 25:33
  Speaker 8: clearly our allies are not thrilled with with what happened
• 25:37
  Speaker 8: over Greenland last year, So there's there are some there
• 25:41
  Speaker 8: are some issues here to be sorted out. President Trump
• 25:44
  Speaker 8: remains the center of attention now of the soccer world
• 25:48
  Speaker 8: and NATO world. I think he's exactly where he wants
• 25:52
  Speaker 8: to be. We'll see how We'll see how this kind
• 25:55
  Speaker 8: of plays out with American voters come November. But I
• 25:58
  Speaker 8: think you do have to give President Trump's some credit
• 26:01
  Speaker 8: here for being the man of the week for sure.
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: Well quickly we forget Greenland, Jamie. Will there be takeaways
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: from this NATO summit or is the whole point not
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: to make news?
• 26:15
  Speaker 9: This may be another US China summit where there's a
• 26:18
  Speaker 9: lot of big rhetoric but unfortunately not a lot of
• 26:20
  Speaker 9: tangible takeaways. I mean, it's my hope that the President
• 26:24
  Speaker 9: goes in and reaffirms the US commitment to this long
• 26:27
  Speaker 9: standing partnership. I mean, even the own Secretary of State,
• 26:31
  Speaker 9: Marco Rubio, put forward legislation to block any US president
• 26:36
  Speaker 9: from leaving NATO without congressional approval, and so the president
• 26:40
  Speaker 9: may be alone with regard to tension with NATO. But
• 26:42
  Speaker 9: I'm hoping that he's there to really get some serious
• 26:45
  Speaker 9: business done. Talks with Ukraine and Russia needs to continue.
• 26:48
  Speaker 9: There needs to be more security security cooperation dialogue around
• 26:52
  Speaker 9: normalizing shipping in the straight of horn moves.
• 26:55
  Speaker 5: And the President.
• 26:56
  Speaker 9: Also has kind of some of these one off tensions
• 26:59
  Speaker 9: what we saw with the time and newster of Italy
• 27:01
  Speaker 9: saying that she needs a restraining order. So I hope
• 27:03
  Speaker 9: the President can put some of his personal issues aside
• 27:06
  Speaker 9: and really get some business done while he's over there
• 27:08
  Speaker 9: in Turkey.
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: Night, Jamie, thanks for a great panel, both of you,
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: Jamie Jackson, Vantage Global Media, Lestra Munson, BGR Group and Kayleie.
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: We're hearing again from FIFA. Apparently the Royal Belgian Football
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: Association was not parties of proceedings and has no standing
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: to appeal. I think we are done here. The game
• 27:28
  Speaker 4: starts at eight o'clock.
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: YEP on procedural grounds. FIFA rejects the appeal and Baligan
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: will be playing tonight against Belgium. It's a match we're
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: all going to watch.
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: more coming up after this.
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
• 27:48
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• 27:51
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• 27:54
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• 27:57
  Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say I Like that, played
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty.
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: The questions we have the more broadly about the markets,
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: what it means for the Trump accounts, and how they
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: might both meet. We now post to Joela Warnia, the
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: chief economist at SMBC Americas, has spent some time, of course,
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: as the President's chief economic advisor in the first term,
• 28:19
  Speaker 4: and was former Counselor Secretary Scott Bessant at the Treasury
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: Department in this term before going back out into the wild. Joe,
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: it's great to see you. I'm sure that this is
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: an idea that you're in favor of, and most Democrats
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: and Republicans seem to be meeting in the middle on
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: this one. I'm curious if there's an actual impact on
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: the market though, when you show up with hundreds of
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: millions of dollars to invest, will we see it in
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: the indexes.
• 28:43
  Speaker 10: In the past week, Joe, thank you for having me
• 28:46
  Speaker 10: on again. In the past week, about eight hundred million
• 28:48
  Speaker 10: did go into the market. The market's so big that
• 28:51
  Speaker 10: you're looking at trillions and trillions of dollars.
• 28:53
  Speaker 7: In market cap.
• 28:53
  Speaker 10: I think bigger issue Joe is the fact that it
• 28:56
  Speaker 10: gives young boys and girls that are just newly born,
• 29:00
  Speaker 10: and of course those that don't even qualify for the
• 29:02
  Speaker 10: thousand dollars, but they could get the five thousand dollars
• 29:06
  Speaker 10: contribution up to AG eighteen. The point is they've become
• 29:09
  Speaker 10: young capitalists, they learn the powers of compound interest, and
• 29:12
  Speaker 10: they become owners in the American system. I think that's
• 29:15
  Speaker 10: the big part. I'm not really sure it's going to
• 29:17
  Speaker 10: lift the market on its own. The earnings have been excellent,
• 29:20
  Speaker 10: and I wish you if I was a political pundit,
• 29:23
  Speaker 10: i'd be telling my former friends, my friends and former colleagues, look,
• 29:26
  Speaker 10: talk about the Trump accounts as much as you can,
• 29:28
  Speaker 10: because I could tell you it was hugely bipartisan people
• 29:32
  Speaker 10: on both sides.
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: Of the eye.
• 29:33
  Speaker 10: I really liked it, and I think it's a great
• 29:35
  Speaker 10: program that we'll look back decades from now and say, Wow,
• 29:38
  Speaker 10: this was a great way for us to be to
• 29:42
  Speaker 10: democratize the stock market.
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: If you will, well, so is this going to be Joe?
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: The lasting long term positive economic impact from last year's
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: One Big Beautiful Bill. Knowing that a lot of the say,
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: larger tax refunds that came as a result of that
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: legend were then eroded by higher gas prices that we'd
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: seen earlier this year, and perhaps didn't have the kind
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: of stimulative juice you may have thought for that reason.
• 30:13
  Speaker 10: Well, the thing is on the One Big Beautiful Bill.
• 30:15
  Speaker 10: To me, the big part of it was the capex
• 30:19
  Speaker 10: permanency of the capex, and then also the factories. You
• 30:23
  Speaker 10: could know factories now you could fully expense. So we're
• 30:26
  Speaker 10: having an economic boom. It's not the disinflationary boom I
• 30:30
  Speaker 10: thought it was in part because of what happened in
• 30:32
  Speaker 10: the Middle East. But it's a boom with some pricing power,
• 30:35
  Speaker 10: which means the Fed will be hiking rates. Of course,
• 30:39
  Speaker 10: as you know, the AI spend is just remarkable, and
• 30:43
  Speaker 10: that's leading to these huge earnings. That huge earnings is
• 30:45
  Speaker 10: powering the stock market. Even though the performance of the
• 30:48
  Speaker 10: equity market has been quite quite incredible. You know, the
• 30:52
  Speaker 10: earnings have been there, so the economy is still really healthy.
• 30:55
  Speaker 10: I like to see inflation lower. That to me is
• 30:57
  Speaker 10: a problem. But the general contours of theanom here in
• 31:00
  Speaker 10: good shape, and the one big beautiful bill is a.
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: Large part of it. Where's your head on the AI
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: spend right now, Joe? It's been a manic market. It's
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: a bubble. One day, we're just catching and barely starting.
• 31:11
  Speaker 4: We're in the second ending. The next day there's a
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: catch up trade, there's a fomo trade, there's a yolo trade.
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: But the market is trying to figure out if we're
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: due for a correction, if we've maybe got a little
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: over our skis. Here. President of the United States just
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: today was talking about in the Oval Office how quickly
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: data centers can go up, for instance, in this country
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: because of the red tape that he has cut, and
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: he said, it's the only reason that we are beating
• 31:36
  Speaker 4: and will beat China in the AI race. What does
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: that mean for the investor right now?
• 31:43
  Speaker 10: For the investor, Joe, it's an arms race. And at
• 31:46
  Speaker 10: some point, you know, clearly the spending will slow. But
• 31:49
  Speaker 10: unlike the Internet boom back in the late nineties, when
• 31:52
  Speaker 10: there weren't a lot of earnings behind those companies, this
• 31:55
  Speaker 10: time around there is tremendous amount of earnings.
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: And you know, having been the markets.
• 32:00
  Speaker 10: For a while and seeing what the Internet could do,
• 32:02
  Speaker 10: or the promised Internet, it was pretty remarkable. But the
• 32:05
  Speaker 10: AI and what these technologies can do and what I'm
• 32:08
  Speaker 10: using them for are truly stunning. So to me that
• 32:11
  Speaker 10: you know, the fundamentals match the hype, you know, we'll
• 32:15
  Speaker 10: let's slow at some point, absolutely, but I don't think
• 32:18
  Speaker 10: it's going to slow yet. Historically the equity market does
• 32:20
  Speaker 10: not peak in the summer months or doesn't hit its
• 32:22
  Speaker 10: high typically in the summer months.
• 32:24
  Speaker 8: It's going to have some room to run.
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: If the FED.
• 32:27
  Speaker 10: Hikes rates, then maybe we'll have a correction, but that
• 32:29
  Speaker 10: does not mean a bear market or recession or anything
• 32:31
  Speaker 10: terrible like that.
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: If the FED hikes rates, Joe and you told us
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: last time you joined us that you did think that
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: maybe in the cards for this year that certainly rate
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: cuts we're not going to be something the FED would
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: be able to pursue. In the aftermath of Thursday's jobs report,
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: are you feeling as confident around the hike idea?
• 32:54
  Speaker 4: Yes, I do.
• 32:54
  Speaker 10: I mean Kevin Warsh was clear that they're not going
• 32:56
  Speaker 10: to look at one data point, They're going to look
• 32:58
  Speaker 10: at trends. Unfortunately, the inflation trends aren't great at the moment,
• 33:02
  Speaker 10: but even in July, I don't expect to fit to
• 33:04
  Speaker 10: hike in July. Bloomberg has the probabilities at about twenty
• 33:08
  Speaker 10: five percent. What's interesting, and what I'm sure Kevin will
• 33:11
  Speaker 10: tell the President is that if he does raise rates,
• 33:14
  Speaker 10: he may actually get lower long term rates in response
• 33:16
  Speaker 10: to higher FED rates. And we know that because when
• 33:19
  Speaker 10: the market was selling off this spring break, even rates
• 33:22
  Speaker 10: were rising and real rates were rising. But recently, when
• 33:26
  Speaker 10: the markets started to come around, to do the Fed's
• 33:28
  Speaker 10: going to hike rates, you don't happen to break even rates.
• 33:30
  Speaker 10: They've come down. So if the Fed hikes and keeps
• 33:32
  Speaker 10: credibility those longer rates, and that's what the president and
• 33:35
  Speaker 10: what homeowners and business care most about, they may actually fall.
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: All right, We'll leave it on that note. Joe Lavorni,
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: of course, former official at the Treasury Department in the
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: second Trump term, now cheap economist at SMB Nego America's Thank.
• 33:50
  Speaker 7: You so much.
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: US Live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern
• 34:06
  Speaker 4: at bloomberg dot com.