Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 73 - 7/10/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:19Hello and welcome to episode 73 of the All Systems Go sports
- 0:25Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 0:28I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
- 0:34Happy Wednesday. We're halfway through our work
- 0:37week and sadly this is my last day in sunny San Diego.
- 0:40We actually are flying back to Boston here for tonight.
- 0:43So one last day with great Mexican food, great weather.
- 0:47Even though I am excited to to go back home and and see the pup
- 0:50I miss, I miss metal pup, our dog.
- 0:52But either way, guys, we're going to continue to grind here
- 0:55in the arena. I got a 5 pack of sweats for you
- 0:58today. It's all Major League Baseball.
- 1:00That's right. We got a loaded slate today. 17
- 1:02games overall, including some double headers.
- 1:05Someday sweats, but I'm going to focus on A5 pack here and we're
- 1:08going to pretty much hit on it all.
- 1:09I have 3 money line plays for you, including a really sharp
- 1:13reverse line move. Gamblers fallacy play.
- 1:15If you never heard of the gamblers fallacy, I'm going to
- 1:17update you or explain it to you in terms of a game here for
- 1:20tonight. Then a couple other money lines
- 1:22as well as a couple totals. We've been doing pretty well
- 1:25with our totals here. And again, I always mention
- 1:26that, you know, people reach out to me every now and again.
- 1:28They say why don't you bet more totals?
- 1:30And I always say, well, hey, I feel like #1 I have more success
- 1:33with money lines and #2 I don't want to force a total.
- 1:36I want a total to scream to me, come play me over or under
- 1:40versus trying to pick out a total and force it.
- 1:42So two totals, 3 money lines. We're going to hit on it all in
- 1:45Episode 73 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered
- 1:50by Rhythm. First guys looking back to her
- 1:52last night basically awash 3 and 2 -. 0.09 units.
- 1:57Had a couple good hits with the Rangers as the bats came to
- 2:00life. Had a late win thanks to Adolas
- 2:02Garcia hitting a wall a not a walk off but big Homer thing was
- 2:06the 8th or 9th inning and Kirby Yates have has anyone seen Kirby
- 2:09Yates is ERA points like .8 O or .86 but he shut down the the the
- 2:16Angels there to finish it off. Red Sox had a big win for us.
- 2:19Felt like we were cruising there.
- 2:20Got a little dicey in the 9th but the Sox pulled it out.
- 2:23And then the aforementioned totals our second total in a row
- 2:26that we won San Diego, Seattle over 7 1/2.
- 2:30Again, we stressed the importance of getting that
- 2:32triggering #7 1/2 versus 8 and at one point it was a 7 to one
- 2:36game late. I said OK, hope everyone got the
- 2:387 1/2, but they've tacked on a couple more runs.
- 2:41Even if you got an 8, we're able to cash that over as well.
- 2:44Losers. Orioles.
- 2:46Come on man. Losing at home, getting rolled
- 2:48by the Cubs, pathetic by the Birds and one that really kind
- 2:51of grinded my gears. Any Peter Griffin fans out there
- 2:55was our WNBA play because I thought we capped that
- 2:57perfectly. We had a couple of great betting
- 3:00system advantages, line moves and we are well on our way to
- 3:03cashing that. Lynx sparks over 158 and a half.
- 3:07First half they scored 86 points, so we're on pace to fly
- 3:10over. Second-half, they go ice cold,
- 3:13they only score 63 points in the second-half so kind of a tough
- 3:17one there but as always, hey, we do our part.
- 3:19Sometimes the teams we bet on don't come through for us.
- 3:22That's betting. You just got to deal with it
- 3:24sometimes. But either way, looking toward
- 3:26hopefully another winning day here for today, guys. 5 pack of
- 3:29MLB sweats. Let's hit on it all and begin
- 3:32right now for episode 73 of the All systems Go sports betting
- 3:35pod. First up, looking toward the
- 3:38Major League Baseball slate. Let's go to a game early today,
- 3:416:50 PM Eastern Time, the Yankees against the Tampa Bay
- 3:45Rays now going to Swan. The Rays are 45 and 46.
- 3:49They won last night's series opener five to three, cashing as
- 3:52a + 100 home dog. Tonight in the rematch, the
- 3:55Yankees were 55 and 38, but they're struggling.
- 3:57More on that in a second. They're going to go with the
- 3:59ready Marcus Stroman, who's seven and four with a 3.58 ERA.
- 4:03Meanwhile, the Rays are going to rebuttal with fellow ready Zach
- 4:06Eflin, who's five and five with a 4.19 ERA.
- 4:10So what we seen across the market here, well, this came
- 4:12open at pretty much a pick em minus one O 5 -, 110 both sides
- 4:17and mention this all the time on the market insights or the all
- 4:21systems go sports betting pod here.
- 4:23When a game opens at a pick em, what is the initial move in One
- 4:27Direction or the other? Because mention is quite a bit,
- 4:30but you know, maybe the wise guys who kept their own numbers,
- 4:34set their own numbers and look for discrepancies.
- 4:36Maybe they have the game out of pick em as well, which means
- 4:38really there's no value either way.
- 4:40But that's not always the case. Often times you're going to see
- 4:43professional betters have one team favored over the other.
- 4:45So when they see it open as a pick em, boom, they're going to
- 4:47hammer the side that they have favored.
- 4:49And it looks like in this one, the wise guys like Tampa Bay.
- 4:52So I'm going to raise here this game, open around again -110
- 4:55pick em. Now it's up to raise -120 Not
- 4:58only do you see a $0.10 team move in favor of Tampa, but it's
- 5:01really interesting. The bet split here really favors
- 5:04Tampa. But in a, in a interesting
- 5:06reverse line move play, because the public is all over the
- 5:08Yankees. You see the pinstripes.
- 5:10Anyone see the movie Catch Me if you can?
- 5:13And I thought, think it was, was it Tom Hanks, the father, he was
- 5:17telling Leo DiCaprio you, hey, why do the, why do the Yankees
- 5:19always win or by the people always bet the Yankees because
- 5:23they see the pinstripes and they're mesmerized.
- 5:24So kind of that Yankee public perception public bias 73% of
- 5:29money line bets are going New York.
- 5:31Yet despite the Yankees being the popular bet, this line's
- 5:34going to Tampa Bay. So that tells me we got smart
- 5:37money going with the Rays here for tonight.
- 5:39They're only getting 27% of money line bets, yet the line
- 5:42moved in their favor. Also have that kind of pick em
- 5:45to favorite line move, which is also another one that we love
- 5:48here and Tampa Bay. Some corelative betting value
- 5:51favorite in a low total game as this total is 8.
- 5:54If your mind expected run scored, more likely to come from
- 5:57not just quote UN quote the better team, but the team who's
- 5:59expected to win, who has that minus number in front of their
- 6:02odds, which would be Tampa. Marcus Stroman, Hopefully he
- 6:05gets lit up tonight because he's gotten lit up quite a few times
- 6:07here recently. He's given up 15 earned runs in
- 6:10his last 21 innings pitched last four starts.
- 6:13Eflin, by the way, has been really good at home. 2.43 ERA at
- 6:16home versus 5.97 on the road. And the Yankees mention them a
- 6:20second ago. They still have a good record on
- 6:22the year, you know, 55 and 38. But they have really struggled
- 6:26as of late. They're just five and 16 over
- 6:28the last 21 games. And I saw a report that I think
- 6:31it's Cashman and maybe Steinbrenner's kid who are on
- 6:34the road trip trying to, I don't know, figure out who to who to
- 6:36trade or, or how to shake this team up.
- 6:38So I want to bet against the Yankees when they're struggling
- 6:41here. Let's let's go with the sharp
- 6:42line move. I'm going with the Rays
- 6:43hopefully to start us off with the winner.
- 6:45Give me the Tampa Bay Rays at -120 keep on cruising.
- 6:50Next one for you, 8:10 PM Eastern Time, First pitch.
- 6:52Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brew Crew now going to this one.
- 6:56The Pirates are 44 and 47. They took last night's series
- 7:00opener crushed the Brew Crew 1:12 to 2:00 as a + 135 row dog.
- 7:05For the rematch tonight, the Pirates are going with lefty
- 7:08Martine Perez. He's one and four with a 4.85
- 7:11ERA this year. Meanwhile, the Brewers who are
- 7:1453 and 39, they're going to counter with righty Tobias
- 7:17Myers, who's five and three with a 3.52 ERA.
- 7:20What have we seen across the market here?
- 7:22Well, this game open with the Brewers listed around a -, 145
- 7:26-, 150 home favorite. And we've seen Milwaukee get bet
- 7:29up a little bit here up to -155 -, 160.
- 7:32So all movement liabilities been toward Milwaukee.
- 7:36The Brewers here are getting 86 or sorry, 81% of money line
- 7:40bets, but 86% of money line dollars.
- 7:43So both a pro and Joe bet split public action with the home team
- 7:47better record, but also smart money moving that number and a
- 7:49low bets, higher dollars bet split with about a 10 cent steam
- 7:53move in favor of Milwaukee. Now Milwaukee matches one of our
- 7:56favorite buy low betting systems, which would be favorite
- 7:58off a loss. Your favorite you're expected to
- 8:00win, you're off a loss looking to bounce back.
- 8:03That system is cashing at roughly a 60% clip this year.
- 8:06I want to bake on Milwaukee's bats, hopefully getting to Perez
- 8:09tonight. The Brewers are hitting 255 with
- 8:11440, 441 runs scored. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, only
- 8:16hitting 231 with 382 runs scored.
- 8:19Home Rd. splits also favored Milwaukee.
- 8:21The Brewers are 27 and 14 home this year, the Pirates just 22
- 8:26and 23 on the road. And Perez, by the way, he's
- 8:29gotten lit up on the road. He's got an ERA of 5.97 when he
- 8:32is the visitor. He's the visitor here for
- 8:34tonight. Hope he gets hope he gets lit up
- 8:37here by the bats of the Brew Crew and also the Brewers.
- 8:40They play pretty well. And Meyer starts, they're seven
- 8:42and three. And the last 10 starts made by
- 8:44Myers, Myers has given up 1 earned run or less in four of
- 8:48his last six starts. So we open Milwaukee as a modest
- 8:52favorite, you know, modest to a little bit high favorite.
- 8:54They've gotten bet up even more. You have some good favorite,
- 8:57awful losses to matches, better offense.
- 8:59I'm going to bank on Myers hopefully out dual Perez.
- 9:01I'm going with the Brew Crew. Shop around.
- 9:03I got Milwaukee at -155 keep on cruising late. 1 here for you at
- 9:099:45 PM Eastern Time the Blue Jays visiting the San Francisco
- 9:13Giants. Now the Giants come into this
- 9:15145 and 47. They won the series interleague
- 9:19series opener last night four to three cashing as a -, 130 home
- 9:23favorite. They won on a walk off wild
- 9:25pitch. So whatever it takes for our for
- 9:28our win total. Those of you who are with me and
- 9:30took the I think it was over 83 1/2 for San Francisco.
- 9:34But anyway, the rematch tonight, the Blue Jays, who are 41 and
- 9:3750, maybe they're sellers at the deadline, something to monitor,
- 9:40but they're going to send out righty Chris Bassett.
- 9:42He's seven and seven with a 3.43 ERA.
- 9:45The G men, meanwhile, are going to go with Rady ace Logan Webb,
- 9:49who's seven and six with a three-point O 9 ERA.
- 9:51What have we seen across the market here?
- 9:54Well, smart money going with the G men.
- 9:56That's where I want to go. Give me the Giants in this one,
- 9:58guys. Giants opened around a -, 135
- 10:01home favorite. We've seen the Giants get
- 10:03steamed up -135 all the way up to -155 so I always mention that
- 10:08steam indicator $0.10 or more, you get to $0.20 or more.
- 10:11That tells me a lot of smart money came in on San Francisco.
- 10:15Now the Giants, they're getting roughly 75% of money line bets
- 10:18in dollars. Basically a pro and Joe bet
- 10:20split. But also that big steam is
- 10:22really what I'm interested in. Tell it telling me the odds
- 10:24makers adjust to that line bigly in favor of the Giants.
- 10:27Cause a lot of money came in on San Francisco.
- 10:30Not just public money, but again, respected money.
- 10:32And always remember, it's respected money that moves
- 10:34numbers, not public money. San Francisco matches quite a
- 10:38few betting systems here. One would be interleague
- 10:39favorite off a win. That lack of familiarity
- 10:42benefiting the better team, especially the better team
- 10:45expected to win. Who's carrying momentum after
- 10:47their walk off win last night. Giants also have that cruelty
- 10:50betting value as a favorite in a low total game total.
- 10:53This one is 8. Once again, the fewer amount of
- 10:55expected run scored more likely to come from quote UN quote the
- 10:58better team. Who's expected to win.
- 11:00Blue Jays, by the way, just one in five and Bassett's last six
- 11:03starts. And I want to back Logan Webb.
- 11:05This guy's been really good for quite a few years now.
- 11:07At this point, he has a 2.13 ERA at home versus 3.92 on the road.
- 11:13So I'm going to bank on him pitching well here in the Bay
- 11:15Area. The Giants better offense.
- 11:18Hopefully the bats get going tonight against Bassett.
- 11:20They're hitting 244 with 92 homers and 406 runs scored.
- 11:25Blue Jays are hitting 233 with only 81 homers and 360 two runs
- 11:30scored. San Fran, by the way, 26 and 19
- 11:33at home. They've been really good at
- 11:34home. Toronto only 20 and 26 on the
- 11:37road. So it feels like to me good
- 11:38opportunity to back the ace here, Logan Webb with a line
- 11:42move in favor of an interleague favorite off a win with that
- 11:45good system match. I'm going to back Webb and the G
- 11:47men give me the Giants at -155 S three money lines.
- 11:52Now let's get to our two totals for tonight.
- 11:55Even though I am in San Diego catching our flight back to
- 11:58Boston tonight, I'm going to keep an eye back in Boston and
- 12:01I'm going to look toward the Oakland A's.
- 12:03Red Sox game tonight, 7:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, Red
- 12:07Sox are rounding -190 home favorite.
- 12:10And in terms of the the the side here seems like obvious.
- 12:13Just take the Red Sox. But they're very popular line
- 12:16really hasn't moved much. So really wasn't a match for me,
- 12:19even though it feels like an obvious bet to take Boston.
- 12:21But I did see a good angle here to take the total and to root
- 12:25for some runs Tonight. I'm going to go over here with
- 12:28the Red Sox and the Oakland A's. Give me the over 10 in this one.
- 12:32So first thing, let's look at the pitching match up.
- 12:35Anytime you're playing a baseball game.
- 12:36Hey, you got to start with the starting pitchers.
- 12:38We have JP Sears going with Oakland are going for Oakland.
- 12:42I should say lefty five and seven, 4.74 ERA on the year.
- 12:47He'll be opposed by Nick Pivetta, who's four and five
- 12:49with a four point O 6 ERA. But really to me this is a a
- 12:53overplay based on the data in terms of the bet splits as well
- 12:57as a weather based overplay. So in terms of the data, let's
- 13:00look at the way this total has moved it open at 9 1/2.
- 13:04Immediately when that 9 1/2 was available, sharps hammered it
- 13:07hit the over 9 1/2 'cause this line to rise up to 10.
- 13:10Now we always want to get that triggering number, but I'm
- 13:12looking around and I really don't see any 9 1/2's anymore.
- 13:15It's pretty much all 10s and some looks or even 10 little bit
- 13:18juiced up over 10, you know -115 So you know, maybe this even
- 13:22gets the 10 1/2. So I don't feel that bad playing
- 13:25the 10. You know, if it's a six to
- 13:27four-game, we'll push. We wish we would have won, but
- 13:29hopefully this thing flies over just like last night as they
- 13:32combined to score. What was it over twenty runs?
- 13:35It was a 12 to 9 game last night, but we have the total
- 13:38rising 9 1/2 up to 10. Still juiced over 10 even though
- 13:42it's risen and a good bet split to the over.
- 13:45The over is only getting 54% of bets but 68% of money.
- 13:50So the 54%, let's start with a ticket count basically tells me
- 13:53public split down the middle. They feel like, hey, this is
- 13:55probably a high scoring game, but anytime you see a double
- 13:58digit total, public gets a little scared.
- 14:00They feel, hey, that's really high.
- 14:01I don't know if we should play it.
- 14:03So for all intents and purposes, public is relatively split here
- 14:06on the total. Don't don't really know which
- 14:07way to go, but yet 68% of the money is going over which drives
- 14:12with this total rising up a bit. So we have a good bet split
- 14:15liability and movement over. Now let's dig into the weather
- 14:18here. I can tell you in San Diego it's
- 14:20hot, but it's a different kind of hot versus Boston.
- 14:23It's hot here, but it's more like a desert kind of, I don't
- 14:26know what you call it, maybe like a desert, kind of a dryer
- 14:29heat. In Boston, New England, where
- 14:31I've lived all my life, it's hot and it's humid and it feels
- 14:34sticky and it feels different. But in terms of the weather at
- 14:37Fenway tonight, it's going to be about 85° and the wind is
- 14:40howling out to left center at 15 mph.
- 14:44This is a really good weather play.
- 14:46And in terms of the heat, that's always a good thing because the
- 14:48pitchers have to sit out there and sweat.
- 14:51Maybe they make a mistake and the batters get get to them, but
- 14:55also the ball travels further when it's hotter and really with
- 14:58the wind that's huge too, because with the wind blowing
- 15:00out to left center 15 mph, maybe one hit that would meet maybe be
- 15:04a you know, warning track fly ball gets pushed into a first
- 15:07row home run. So good weather based overplay
- 15:10here. Digging a little bit more into
- 15:12the pitchers. Sears in the month of June 7.9
- 15:15for ERA in the month of June for Pavetta 5.13 ERA.
- 15:19So for the bats get going on both sides here and then last 10
- 15:23games both these teams are hitting pretty well.
- 15:24Red Sox rating 249 Oakland don't look now they're hitting 255 and
- 15:29both teams have an ERA of over 4 1/2 their last ten games.
- 15:33Red Sox by the way, 44 and 39 to the over on the season.
- 15:37So you got it all up here guys. I know it's a high total, but it
- 15:39feels like it's high for a reason.
- 15:41We have a movement play to the over 9 1/2 up to 10 good bet
- 15:45split half the tickets, but 2/3 of the money on the over good
- 15:49weather, based play, good bats, Hopefully some pitchers who can
- 15:52get knocked around. I'm going Red Sox, A's over 10,
- 15:56shop around and try to get a -, 110 if you can.
- 15:59Some shops are again as high as over 10 -, 1 - 120 last but of
- 16:03the night, hopefully with an assist from our friends at Juice
- 16:06Reel. I'll get to that in a minute.
- 16:07But let's go on the West Coast to the LA Angels hosting the
- 16:11Texas Rangers. I've been playing the series and
- 16:14doing pretty well as we've been riding Texas both games.
- 16:17They had winners in both games, won the opener nine to four, one
- 16:21last night, five to four in terms of tonight's match up,
- 16:24which is a 9:38 PM Eastern Time. First pitch.
- 16:27Let's first look at the pitchers and then I'll give you the play
- 16:29here, which is the over once again.
- 16:32But Michael Lorenzen on the bump here for Texas, he is five and
- 16:36four with a 3.21 ERA. He'll be opposed by Griffin
- 16:40Canning, who's 3:00 and 9:00 with a 4.87 ERA.
- 16:43But let's start again always with the data because when I
- 16:46look for totals, I'll cover up the names of the teams.
- 16:49Just look at what it open at, how did it move and where's the
- 16:52juice liability? It's always my starting point.
- 16:54So with this one, looks like this looks like a hot overplay.
- 16:57Hot windy overplay. Because this total opened at 9.
- 17:01Most of these books were 9 -, 110, both sides.
- 17:04Now it's 9 / -, 115 -, 120. So that's telling us we have
- 17:08smart money liability leaning over and hopefully you get this
- 17:12nine because if you wait too long, maybe it creeps up to 9
- 17:151/2. That's important because if it's
- 17:16another 5 four-game, you want to push an over 9, not lose.
- 17:20But hey, we're hoping for way more runs than nine.
- 17:22But anyway, liability over bet splits really scream over here.
- 17:26Only 53% of tickets are on the over, but 64% of the money is on
- 17:32the over. So similar to that, Red Sox over
- 17:34split half the tickets, 2/3 of the money telling us the bigger,
- 17:37sharper wagers are leaning over. Another weather based play, 85°
- 17:42in sunny. You know it's not Anaheim
- 17:44anymore. What is it?
- 17:45It's LA, but it's technically still ballpark Angel Stadium of
- 17:49Anaheim, I believe. But anyway, 85°, beautiful
- 17:53night, 7 to 10 mile per hour, winds blowing out to dead
- 17:56center. So once again, we got a lot of
- 17:58power hitters on both sides. Hopefully we push some warning
- 18:02track, fly balls in the first row, home runs, and then looking
- 18:05at the last 10 for both these teams.
- 18:08Texas is crushing the ball right now.
- 18:09They're hitting 298 as a team, nearly hitting 300.
- 18:13That's pretty impressive. Tells me the bats are going for
- 18:15Texas right now. Meanwhile the Angels they can
- 18:18hit but they're pitching isn't very good.
- 18:19They have a 5.13 ERA in their last ten games.
- 18:23And then to add it all up, little cherry on top.
- 18:26Our friends at Juice Reel have a nice sharp mush bet opportunity
- 18:30on this over Juice Reel who again always does a great job of
- 18:34helping us cash tickets. Juice Reel who is a great app to
- 18:38download or is it? What is a great app technically?
- 18:41You want to feel like I'm an episode of Jeopardy.
- 18:43What is or who is but anyway juice reel.
- 18:46They help us with syncing our sports books to the app, track
- 18:50our bets, track our performance, learn our strengths and
- 18:52weaknesses. We also get the Robo Jackson
- 18:55recommended AI best bets every single day that come out at noon
- 18:58Eastern Time. We got the arbitrage
- 19:00opportunities, but really the sharp mush is what I get kind of
- 19:03excited about because it's right up my alley in terms of looking
- 19:06at games where all the wise guys, the sharp winning betters
- 19:09are on one side, side A and the kind of losing betters, the
- 19:12public betters betting based on gut instinct and bias.
- 19:15They're on side B. So it really isolates in the app
- 19:18and it tracks the performance of everyone who has the app.
- 19:20OK, in this game we have all the good betters on one side and the
- 19:24bad betters on the other. Well, guess what we do because
- 19:26this is a sharp mush over system play right now in the app, 56%
- 19:31of the best betters in the app are going over, 57% of the worst
- 19:36betters in the app are going under.
- 19:38So that provides a 12% edge for us to go over here, which is
- 19:43just another way to kind of solidify that based on, again,
- 19:47we're trying to always place ourselves with the wise guys
- 19:50against the betting public. Be at it all up here, guys.
- 19:52I'm going to go over here, Texas, LA.
- 19:55Let's root for some runs. Let's get 10 or more.
- 19:57I'm going Texas, LA over nine. I got that at -115 So for
- 20:02tonight, 5 picks, can we get three or more?
- 20:06I'm going Tampa Bay, Milwaukee, San Francisco, Boston, Oakland
- 20:10over 10. Texas LA over nine that about
- 20:14does it for episode 73 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
- 20:17podcast powered by Rhythm. But of course, this is the part
- 20:20of the pod where I asked something of you if you enjoy
- 20:23this podcast #1 thank you for listening.
- 20:26Thank you for taking the time out of your day to pull up a
- 20:28chair to the virtual bar talk some sharp data-driven betting.
- 20:31I always feel like I'm just amongst friends trying to trying
- 20:34to locate sharp action to make smart bets with you guys every
- 20:37day. I'm honored to to host this pod.
- 20:39But if you enjoy the pod, if it's helped you to cash them
- 20:42tickets here or there, if you look forward to the breakdowns
- 20:45each day, if you've learned a thing or two and gotten a little
- 20:47sharper. Maybe you put more stock into
- 20:50betting splits, low bets, higher dollars.
- 20:52Maybe you're looking at line movement and looking at system
- 20:54matches and you're flat betting and not parlaying.
- 20:57You ever notice I never mentioned parlays?
- 20:59Well, there's a reason for it's not because I'm boring.
- 21:01It's because parlays. The house always wins.
- 21:03Why do you think the house has such a big hold, which is the
- 21:06percentage of the amount of money they hold after paying out
- 21:11all the bets and what they basically keep at the end of the
- 21:13day? They crush the whole percentage
- 21:15with parlays. Regular individual bets are like
- 21:175% hold. Parlays are like 30%.
- 21:19And don't even get me started on same game parlays.
- 21:22You wonder why sports books promote those because it's
- 21:24closer to like a 40% hold. But anyway, if you enjoy the
- 21:28pod, if you want to make my day, let me know you appreciate the
- 21:30hard work that I put in hosting this pod each day, then I have
- 21:34something to ask of you. Could you please give this
- 21:36podcast a 5 star review? That's right.
- 21:39If you're listening on either Spotify or iTunes, give it five
- 21:42stars that really make my day. Let me know do you appreciate
- 21:45the pod? But more importantly, gives us
- 21:47some, gives us some momentum and some credibility across the
- 21:50market, rising up the charts. If you also want to recommend
- 21:53the pod to a friend, that would be fantastic.
- 21:55Will meet me really mean a lot to me guys.
- 21:57And if you have the option to follow the pod so you get it as
- 22:00soon as it drops, that also be great as well.
- 22:03Secondly, have you signed up for your Rhythm or Juice Reel 7 day
- 22:07free trials? Well, I hope you have, but if
- 22:08not, I want you to use a custom link located in the bio
- 22:12description of this podcast. Remember, Rhythm does a great
- 22:15job of helping us isolate AI backed bets here in terms of
- 22:20both player props and game totals.
- 22:22I know it's kind of slow this summer, but we do have WNBA, we
- 22:25have golf and we have before we know it, we have NFL.
- 22:28So wait for wait rhythms. Really their their main thing is
- 22:31NFL, even though they're great at all sports and they're
- 22:33working on adding all sports. Wait until we get to to the NFL
- 22:37with both game bets and props. That should be a lot of fun.
- 22:39But download the rhythm 7 day free trial.
- 22:42Also download the juice reel free trial.
- 22:44Again, these are basically data-driven apps that I've
- 22:47teamed up with because I believe in them.
- 22:49I know the way they work. They lean on data and they're
- 22:52cutting edge in advanced to help us win.
- 22:54The whole point is not to make the sports books money, it's the
- 22:57for us to make money and help the better win, not not the
- 23:00house. But anyway, if you already done
- 23:02that again, you'll be well on your way to hopefully getting
- 23:05more data and more tools in your toolbox to help you cash some
- 23:08tickets. Lastly, of course, if you enjoy
- 23:10the pod and you want to learn more about data-driven, sharp
- 23:12contrarian betting, guess what? I wrote a book, it's called the
- 23:16Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
- 23:17All you got to do is go to Amazon.com, type in the
- 23:20everything guide to Sports betting, pick up a copy for you
- 23:23or for a friend. It's got everything I've learned
- 23:25in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they move, how
- 23:28to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to
- 23:30place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best line,
- 23:33how to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
- 23:36the Everything guide to Sports betting.
- 23:39It's that about does everybody Episode 73 here in the books.
- 23:42It's a big baseball day. I'm sad to leave sunny
- 23:45California. It's been a great week.
- 23:47I am looking forward to getting back to Boston.
- 23:48But man, California, it's the land of dreams.
- 23:51I don't know why anyone want to leave here, even though cost of
- 23:53living it is a lot. Don't even let me get you
- 23:56started on the price of gas out here.
- 23:58But it's paradise. The vibes, the Mexican food, the
- 24:02sun, it is about as good as it gets.
- 24:05But anyway, with that being said, whether I see you at the
- 24:09Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the brook
- 24:12of New Hampshire at Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut
- 24:15at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM
- 24:18Springfield in my neck of the woods in Massachusetts or out in
- 24:21the desert where the true grinders get down, where Billy
- 24:23Walters sends his number runners were the lowest juice possible
- 24:26is found at the South Point or of course at the Disney World
- 24:30for sports bettors, which of course is circa.
- 24:32Whether you jump in the pool at stadium swimming, you're going
- 24:34to need that pool. I'm reading that.
- 24:37What is it, 120° breaking records in Vegas, man, Vegas is
- 24:40nice to visit, but I like to visit in February for the Super
- 24:43Bowl, not in the middle of summer when it's, you know, you
- 24:46bacon like a like a baked potato out there.
- 24:49But anyway, whether you jump in the stadium swimming pool at
- 24:51circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
- 24:52You're going to show me a couple good winning tickets from last
- 24:55night. Show me a Rangers ticket.
- 24:56Show me a Red Sox ticket, show me a Padres over 7 1/2.
- 25:01And guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
- 25:03you. We're going to post about the
- 25:04book. Sweat sharp can train plays all
- 25:06night long. So I wish you the best of luck
- 25:08everyone have a fantastic Wednesday.
- 25:11My parting words as always, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
- 25:15against the public, place yourself on the side of the
- 25:17house. Always be with the smart money,
- 25:19never against it. Will smart money when every
- 25:20time? Of course not.
- 25:22We had a pretty good angle in that WNBA game.
- 25:24They just went ice cold in the second-half.
- 25:26But that's the thing about betting.
- 25:28All you can do is make the smartest, most educated bet you
- 25:30can based on your head and not your heart, your data or the
- 25:34data I should say and not your. You know your bias and again,
- 25:38let the chips fall where they may.
- 25:39But I know one thing's for sure, if we can find that sweet spot
- 25:41against the house with the public, with the pros, flat bet,
- 25:45avoid parlays, get that closing line value.
- 25:48If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors
- 25:50long term. So enjoy the sweats.
- 25:52Everyone. Have a great Wednesday.
- 25:54Wish me luck as I sadly depart San Diego and fly back to Boston
- 25:58later today, but I wish you the best of luck.
- 26:01Have a great night and I'll see you tomorrow for episode 74 of
- 26:04the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by
- 26:08Rhythm. Good luck everybody.
- 26:09I'll see you back in Boston.