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Major Foreign Policy Tests Await a Starmer Victory · Stephanomics

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to Voter Nomics,
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Speaker 1: where politics and markets collide. This year, voters around the
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Speaker 1: world have the ability to affect markets, countries, and economies
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Speaker 1: like never before, so we've created this series to help
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Speaker 1: me make sense of it all. I'm Aleca Stratton and
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Speaker 1: this week we actually don't have the usual Voter Nomics
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Speaker 1: crew Stephanie's in Barcelona and Adrian's in New York, but
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Speaker 1: instead we've got two of Bloomberg's top UK reporters right
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Speaker 1: here in the studio with us to join us for
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Speaker 1: this episode, Alex Wickham, Westminster political editor and Alvarey, reporter
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Speaker 1: and fellow read Out newsletter writer. We are a month in,
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Speaker 1: guys to this election. How are you bearing up?
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Speaker 2: Probably better than most of our sources who seem to
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Speaker 2: be on the last legs. I'm not sure how we're
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Speaker 2: going to do another nine days but not long now?
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Speaker 3: Is that from?
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Speaker 2: Is that all parties or all parties? I think it's
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Speaker 2: just so hard on a campaign, isn't it. It's one
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Speaker 2: thing being journalists go on a bus, you know, late nights,
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Speaker 2: but you know, if you're if you're an advisor or candidate.
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Speaker 2: You're just absolutely constant, has no escape.
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Speaker 1: If I think back to the battle buses that I
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Speaker 1: was on, I can think of the moment the morning
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Speaker 1: after David Cameron TV debate where he was expected to
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Speaker 1: wipe the floor with everybody else and he really didn't.
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Speaker 1: It was the one where Nick Clegg came out on
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Speaker 1: top six years and years ago, and the mood on
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Speaker 1: the bus was horrendous, really low, and you could sense
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Speaker 1: the team didn't know what they were going to do.
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Speaker 1: And then my other favorite was Nick Klegg used to
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Speaker 1: have these sneaky cigarettes around the back of the well,
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Speaker 1: not round the back of the battle bus. He would
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Speaker 1: go kind of one bus away and he didn't think
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Speaker 1: that like twenty journos sussed him out on this, what's
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Speaker 1: what's been your sort of impression from the buses?
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Speaker 4: So sadly, Alegra the buses are much less fun than
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Speaker 4: the name of Cameron days. They've changed how much access
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Speaker 4: you really get. So even though Labor publicizes its battlebus
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Speaker 4: with Kirstarmer and Angela Rayner, the press is on a
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Speaker 4: separate bus and he tends to travel around in I
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Speaker 4: know I'm ruining the magic, and he tends to travel
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Speaker 4: around in his land Rover with his special protection officers,
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Speaker 4: and then we are allied on the bus for brief moments.
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Speaker 4: So I think I've been on the on the bus
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Speaker 4: with Kirstarma for a total of aboute and hor Some
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Speaker 4: of that he was behind a little curtain. Some of
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Speaker 4: that he came out and chatted to us. But I
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Speaker 4: think Alex has had a bit more of an interesting time.
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Speaker 3: Have your bus has been better?
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Speaker 2: The Conservative Bus is Oxford United football team's former bus,
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Speaker 2: so it's very i would say, pretty nice quality. It's
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Speaker 2: journalists only and then you sort of get ten or
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Speaker 2: fifteen minutes if you're lucky with the Prime Minister. Richie
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Speaker 2: Sunek is very tigerish and he's very good at sort
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Speaker 2: of geeing himself up for a chat with the media.
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Speaker 2: In my highlights from Tory Bus the other day was
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Speaker 2: they took us to a farm with David Cameron and
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Speaker 2: Richie Sinak, and David Cameron and a farmer were trying
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Speaker 2: to feed some sheep and as soon as they offered
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Speaker 2: the food, the sheep all ran in the opposite direction
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Speaker 2: extremely quickly, and Prime Minister sort of sunk to his
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Speaker 2: haunches and just shook his head and and he sort
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Speaker 2: of you almost started to feel a bit sorry for
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Speaker 2: him at that point.
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Speaker 4: We were joking yesterday that we were trying to find
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Speaker 4: interesting things that kir Starmer has done on the battle Bus,
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Speaker 4: and we were really racking our brains for interesting color.
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Speaker 4: And we've observed that whenever he gets to a new
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Speaker 4: non league football ground, he just looks around and says, fantastic, fantastic, fantastic.
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Speaker 3: This is super disciplined. Basically.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, he comes up for a short visit with some supporters.
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Speaker 4: They all have their placards. He gives the same stump speech,
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Speaker 4: gives one interview to local TV, then he's back, travels
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Speaker 4: for another two hours, Rinse, repeat, same message, same message.
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Speaker 4: So the bus can get a bit monotonous.
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Speaker 3: Right Well.
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Speaker 1: In this week's episode, we're looking at Labour's foreign policy plans.
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Speaker 1: Given the most likely outcome of the July fourth election
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Speaker 1: is that it is a Labor government, it would be good,
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Speaker 1: wouldn't it to know what the party has planned for
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Speaker 1: the UK's relationship with Europe, the US and the rest.
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Speaker 3: Of the word.
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Speaker 1: So, in a word, is it clear what Labor's foreign
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Speaker 1: policy will be?
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Speaker 2: I think continuity is probably the main thing. They don't
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Speaker 2: want anything against the grain at the moment in Europe,
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Speaker 2: particularly on things like Ukraine.
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Speaker 4: They have two words for it, bitgrand signing progressive realism,
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Speaker 4: which in practice just sort of means that they will
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Speaker 4: pay lip service to their progressive values while being actually
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Speaker 4: quite pragmatic about dealing with some very difficult foreign states
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Speaker 4: like India.
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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, well to talk through progressive realism and
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Speaker 1: reality of how some of that will work in practice,
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Speaker 1: we will shortly be turning to Tom Fletcher. He's a
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Speaker 1: former foreign policy advisor to no less than three UK
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Speaker 1: prime ministers. He's now principle of Hartford College at Oxford University.
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Speaker 1: Also on the show, we have Ellen Milligan, who's a
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Speaker 1: Bloomberg reporter hopefully probably familiar to lots of you, and
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Speaker 1: she's just published some brilliant analysis on kids damer and
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Speaker 1: what she believes is his silence when it comes to Brexit.
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Speaker 1: So now we're going to go to our on the
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Speaker 1: ground voice for the week, Bloomberg's reporter, Ellen Milligan, who
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Speaker 1: you can't see, but she's sitting with her very virtuous What.
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Speaker 3: Is it, Ellen, It looks darker than just normal green juice.
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Speaker 5: It's a green juice mixed with kafir.
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Speaker 3: And is it your election? Is it your election coping strategy?
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Speaker 5: It's my it's getting me through the sleep deprivation and
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Speaker 5: lack of vitamin d yes.
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Speaker 1: Ellen, you published a piece about Brexit and Starmer. Just
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Speaker 1: talk us through the things that the sources were telling you.
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Speaker 5: Well, Labor has this what it describes as an ambitious
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Speaker 5: plan to forge closer ties with the EU. They describe
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Speaker 5: it as a new geopolitical partnership that they want to
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Speaker 5: build with their closest trading partner. But the truth is
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Speaker 5: that it's actually quite unambitious in the sense that it
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Speaker 5: sets some very clear redlines. Labor will not rejoin the
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Speaker 5: Customs Union, the Single Market will return to freedom of movement,
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Speaker 5: which means it's very limited in what it can do.
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Speaker 5: And essentially all it can do is kind of tinker
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Speaker 5: around the edges of the training Cooperation Agreement that was
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Speaker 5: agreed in twenty twenty, rather than fundamentally alter the trading relationship.
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Speaker 5: So it's got a few plans. One is a veterinary agreement,
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Speaker 5: which will ease that border friction, particularly on fresh food
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Speaker 5: and plants. The other is a security pat which actually
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Speaker 5: the EU had offered Boris Johnson and he rejected it.
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Speaker 5: In the negotiation, which is to cooperate on defence R
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Speaker 5: and D, joint procurement of weaponry for example for Ukraine,
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Speaker 5: and then also mutual recognitions of professions and visas for musicians,
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Speaker 5: all things that from my conversations with UK government officials
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Speaker 5: in the Foreign Office, Labor and EU diplomats are durable
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Speaker 5: but will involve concessions.
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Speaker 1: So it feels to me like there's two points there.
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Speaker 1: One is that they'll have to do things that they
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Speaker 1: might be criticized for. Do you think they'll be criticized
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Speaker 1: for them or do you think that actually with the
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Speaker 1: new government and you know many people saying the opinion
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Speaker 1: polls are becoming more skeptical about Brexit, do you think
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Speaker 1: they will have the kind of political now is to
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Speaker 1: get away with them.
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Speaker 5: There's I think two reasons why they their ambition on
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Speaker 5: the EU is limited. One is the political reason. They
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Speaker 5: want to win back those particularly the Red Wall parts
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Speaker 5: of the country that voted leave in twenty sixteen and
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Speaker 5: they lost in twenty nineteen to the Conservatives, many for
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Speaker 5: the first time those constituencies. But also it's a genuine
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Speaker 5: desire for their first five year term not to be
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Speaker 5: distracted by the same old debates about Brexit and you
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Speaker 5: know which distracted the government Conservative government from public services
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Speaker 5: and all these things for several years. I think when
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Speaker 5: it comes to things like concessions like the ECJ, I
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Speaker 5: don't think they'll have a lot of backlash internally in
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Speaker 5: their Labor party, especially if they have a big majority.
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Speaker 5: In fact, the labor base tends to be more pro
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Speaker 5: kind of things like a youth mobility deal that we
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Speaker 5: have reported in here that they actually are open to negotiating,
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Speaker 5: even though they've dismissed it publicly. But I think whether
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Speaker 5: their majority is big or not will defend whether they
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Speaker 5: mind so much about that.
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Speaker 4: Ellen, there's a really interesting nugget in the piece that
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Speaker 4: you used to lead with when you were promoting it,
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Speaker 4: which is what labor advisors and senior figures are saying
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Speaker 4: privately about the prospect of rejoining the EU or the
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Speaker 4: kind of the benefit that would have to the economy.
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Speaker 4: Do you want to just spell actually the thing that
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Speaker 4: they're admitting, which makes everything else that you've just said
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Speaker 4: so extraordinary.
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Speaker 5: I think the big overarching question for this whole five
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Speaker 5: year term that Labour's likely to get is it's so
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Speaker 5: reliant on economic growth being able to fund everything they
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Speaker 5: want to do, pretty much on public services in particular,
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Speaker 5: on defense spending, all these things. They want to get
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Speaker 5: up to that kind of two percent growth that we
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Speaker 5: saw under the Tony Blair euro that's stagnant for the
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Speaker 5: last few years. And what Labor, some senior Labor advisors
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Speaker 5: have conceded to me kind of privately, is that they
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Speaker 5: know that one of the most impactful ways that they
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Speaker 5: can achieve economic growth is to, for example, rejoin the
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Speaker 5: Customs Union or the Single Market, and yet they have
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Speaker 5: given insurances privately and publicly that they will not do
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Speaker 5: that in a first five year term. Now that opens
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Speaker 5: the question as to whether they could come under pressure
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Speaker 5: if they don't achieve the highest growth in the G
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Speaker 5: seven that they've promised, a very ambitious promise that maybe
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Speaker 5: those red lines will change by the time and next
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Speaker 5: selection comes along.
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Speaker 4: Being in those things would have an almost immediate impact
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Speaker 4: on growth where it would come through in the first
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Speaker 4: term of a parliament, But just extraordinary for them to
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Speaker 4: be conceding it privately and still sticking to their political approach.
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Speaker 2: I wonder as well, you know, does the size of
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Speaker 2: Labour's majority if it does win, and if it does
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Speaker 2: win big, do you think that makes a difference on
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Speaker 2: how they would think it. Obviously at the moment in
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Speaker 2: the election, Labor doesn't want to say, oh, we could
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Speaker 2: re join the tiger mark at the Customs Unit. It
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Speaker 2: doesn't want to give any grounds and give any doubt
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Speaker 2: to voters who did vote for Brexit, or at least
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Speaker 2: Air not in the full sort of remain camp. Do
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Speaker 2: you think that a big majority could shift things the
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Speaker 2: sort of the window of conversation on EU relations further
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Speaker 2: in that direction.
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Speaker 5: Kis Dama's shadow cabinet is full of remainers. I mean,
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Speaker 5: David Lammy described Brexit as a national tragedy and a
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Speaker 5: big speech you did in Parliament after twenty twenty. But
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Speaker 5: this is the thing and this this is what actually
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Speaker 5: Jonathan Reynolds had a very good line, which was that
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Speaker 5: our foreign policy will not be dictated by the internal
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Speaker 5: party politics of the Conservative Party. And so when you say,
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Speaker 5: you know, it rows over the ECJ quite niche technical
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Speaker 5: things that the voting public mostly don't understand has been
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Speaker 5: dominating you know, Ehr. We've seen it over immigration policy recently.
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Speaker 5: Those things aren't going to be so much a problem
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Speaker 5: again if there's a big labor majority, So I think
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Speaker 5: that's definitely the case. But I do think there is
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Speaker 5: a bit of naivety to think, you know, just because
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Speaker 5: we're kind of a pro remain, pro EU party, we
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Speaker 5: can kind of get all these you know, deals done.
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Speaker 5: The EU is incredibly hard to negotiate with. It's very
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Speaker 5: distracted by its own politics and its political shift.
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Speaker 3: To the right.
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Speaker 1: I suppose the thing listening to you just then, yes,
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Speaker 1: they don't want their foreign policy to be set by
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Speaker 1: the internal wranglings of the Tory Party. But it's clear
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Speaker 1: there'll be internal wranglings of the Labor party in that
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Speaker 1: if you've got, as Alex says, two hundred seat majority,
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Speaker 1: you will have siren voices whispering in your ear saying
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Speaker 1: you can do it, you can do it, go for it.
11:35
Speaker 1: You may not have this opportunity again, this is the
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Speaker 1: right thing to do, and we all know you can
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Speaker 1: do the ming Var's strategy. Ahead of an election, then
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Speaker 1: people will start say you don't have to grip onto
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Speaker 1: that ming Vas at all tightly or even at all
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Speaker 1: you can. You can not drop it, but you know,
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Speaker 1: to extend the metaphor you can relax. And I suspect,
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Speaker 1: but I don't know, and I don't think anybody knows.
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Speaker 1: If you have farage and reform having done right in
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Speaker 1: this in this poll, you will have that that will
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Speaker 1: be your sort of will be a fairly forceful.
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Speaker 3: Check it, Alex.
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Speaker 2: I would have thought so by the time of the
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Speaker 2: next election, looking looking at five years ahead, would he
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Speaker 2: need a political mandate from the public to start making
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Speaker 2: these big changes with the EU? I mean, could he
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Speaker 2: do them sort of in all but name without that
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Speaker 2: political mandate. You know he's going to He's going to
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Speaker 2: face big sort of pressure from the from them, from
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Speaker 2: the sort of liberal media and from his own party.
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Speaker 1: And just wanted to move on. But it's a similar territory,
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Speaker 1: which is immigration. Kis Darma's got these these policies on immigration.
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Speaker 1: He wants to negotiate with France on take backs, so
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Speaker 1: taking back some of the asylums because.
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Speaker 3: That come over.
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Speaker 1: How do you think that will work? If we have
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Speaker 1: on Sunday the beginning of the national rally doing very
12:48
Speaker 1: well in France's parliament.
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Speaker 5: This is really interesting because while there would be Foreign Secretary,
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Speaker 5: David Lammy has done a lot of work with the
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Speaker 5: Republicans in the US and has kind of, you know,
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Speaker 5: taken this quite pragmatic approach that they could be in
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Speaker 5: government in six months time. He hasn't done that, and
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Speaker 5: Kiirs Damer hasn't done that with the EUS. So what
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Speaker 5: I've been told by labor contacts is that while Kiirs
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Speaker 5: Starmer and David Lammy have made really good relations with
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Speaker 5: ol Schultz, for example, with Lemon in Germany, France's Emanuel
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Speaker 5: mccran Salma has not established a relationship with Georgia Maloney
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Speaker 5: a tour or her team. They've not done work with
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Speaker 5: Marine le Penz party in France or the AfD in Germany.
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Speaker 5: O Left Schultz has an election next year. He looks
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Speaker 5: like he's going to lose it. Mccroon's going to stay
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Speaker 5: on most likely til twenty twenty seven. But then you
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Speaker 5: could see a shift. So you could see this position
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Speaker 5: in a Kirs Starmer administration where suddenly you're already seeing
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Speaker 5: the political wins shift in the EU, but actually the
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Speaker 5: leadership changes are kind of halfway through or before that,
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Speaker 5: which I think will really change the way that he
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Speaker 5: has relations with.
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Speaker 4: I think that they do have big hopes of working
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Speaker 4: quite closely with European center right parties on immigration. They
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Speaker 4: have sort of plans that they wouldn't be able to
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Speaker 4: do on their own basically, and they're already kind of
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Speaker 4: they anticipate that illegal migration is going to be a
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Speaker 4: massive issue. I mean, it's been a huge headache for
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Speaker 4: She's sooner act stopping the votes, but I think they
14:21
Speaker 4: think it could get even worse into the first few
14:24
Speaker 4: years of a labor government. And they keep talking about
14:27
Speaker 4: like desperately hoping for the center right to win in
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Speaker 4: various elections because they don't think that they can work
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Speaker 4: with far right parties on immigration. They would just be
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Speaker 4: closed out of that.
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Speaker 3: But that is what's looking like happening. Yeah, what do
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Speaker 3: they do.
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Speaker 4: My impression is that they're still working. They still have
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Speaker 4: plans that they are hoping Macron will be in place
14:49
Speaker 4: to help them deliver.
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Speaker 1: That's it for now, but I'm sure we will be
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Speaker 1: returning to this subject in the next few months.
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Speaker 3: Ellen Milligan, thank you very much.
14:58
Speaker 4: Thank you.
15:02
Speaker 1: Now onto our guest Tom Fletcher joins us in our
15:05
Speaker 1: London studio. Tom was previously the foreign policy advisor to
15:08
Speaker 1: three UK Prime Ministers Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and David Cameron,
15:12
Speaker 1: and then he became British Ambassador to Lebanon. He's currently
15:15
Speaker 1: head of Hartford College, Oxford. Tom. I remember you being
15:19
Speaker 1: certainly in your role as foreign policy advisor to Gordon Brown,
15:23
Speaker 1: and that crazy trip was it to Gulf countries and
15:28
Speaker 1: then to Auschwitz within a day.
15:29
Speaker 6: We did a lot of crazy trips together, I think,
15:31
Speaker 6: and normally I would be the person that had to
15:33
Speaker 6: come back on the plane and basically brate all the
15:35
Speaker 6: press corps for whatever story you'd written about us all.
15:40
Speaker 6: But I think that day, yeah, we were coming back
15:41
Speaker 6: out of Afghanistan. We had a very grueling trip to Afghanistan,
15:44
Speaker 6: see Karzai. Just got out in time, late at night.
15:47
Speaker 6: Otherwise the plane, the C one thirty was going to
15:49
Speaker 6: be grounded in Carbull and we'd all have stayed in
15:51
Speaker 6: carbell overnight. Got out I think by Oman, and then
15:54
Speaker 6: on to Auschwitzer the next day and then into big
15:58
Speaker 6: talks with Donald Tusk, who's now back of course in Poland.
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Speaker 6: So that was just a normal day in Number ten
16:04
Speaker 6: in those days, I.
16:06
Speaker 3: Don't think so.
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Speaker 1: I don't think they do trips were crying quite that
16:09
Speaker 1: much in now so Gordon.
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Speaker 6: You know, Gordon's shuttle diplomacy was lots of shuttle, and
16:14
Speaker 6: then I was to do the diplomacy.
16:17
Speaker 1: You know.
16:17
Speaker 6: They once mistranslated my job title in China, which was
16:21
Speaker 6: the Private Secretary for Foreign Affairs to the Prime Minister,
16:24
Speaker 6: and it got mistranslated as the intimate typist, but it
16:29
Speaker 6: was them the intimate typist for the Prime Minister's affairs overseas,
16:33
Speaker 6: which of course in English means something completely different. But
16:35
Speaker 6: in reality I didn't organize any prime minister's affairs overseas.
16:39
Speaker 6: It was just but I was a kind of bad carrier,
16:41
Speaker 6: policy maker, speech writer and all the rest.
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Speaker 3: Okay.
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Speaker 1: So just so, looking at the kind of strategic comparatives
16:48
Speaker 1: for possibly Prime Minister kissed Armer, what do you think
16:51
Speaker 1: are the three things he will be wanting to sort.
16:55
Speaker 6: I mean, he faces the fullest diary of state craft
16:59
Speaker 6: of any prime minister I think for their first month
17:02
Speaker 6: in office since Churchill. That's quite a big claim. But
17:06
Speaker 6: that NATO summit within days of taking office and then
17:09
Speaker 6: that first meeting with Biden, they are enormously consequential for
17:14
Speaker 6: so many of these issues NATO, Ukraine, for what happens
17:17
Speaker 6: next on the Middle East, And of course in the
17:19
Speaker 6: background there you've got the specter of the Orange, specter
17:22
Speaker 6: of Donald Trump waiting in the wings as well. So
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Speaker 6: I think that set of issues is a massive, massive challenge.
17:29
Speaker 6: What next for NATO? You know what next for UK defense?
17:32
Speaker 6: How are we going to reimagine the threats that actually
17:34
Speaker 6: are coming in our direction and prepare for those. Then
17:37
Speaker 6: I think you've got a really, really tough summer on
17:40
Speaker 6: the Middle East. We may be coming to the end
17:42
Speaker 6: of this phase in Gaza, and it's been a pretty
17:45
Speaker 6: sickening eight nine months to work through. I have great
17:49
Speaker 6: fears that the wall now move north to my old
17:52
Speaker 6: stomping ground of Lebanon, and that we may see a
17:55
Speaker 6: similar military action there, which would dominate the summer and
17:59
Speaker 6: present some massive challenges to an incoming government. But then,
18:02
Speaker 6: I mean, can I have four? I mean, because Europe
18:04
Speaker 6: is also massive, and I think this is redefining. Some
18:07
Speaker 6: of that will be about body language and tone of
18:09
Speaker 6: our relationship with Europe, particularly on the security side. And
18:13
Speaker 6: then the danger will be that, look, these first thirty
18:15
Speaker 6: days will be so defining but the danger will be
18:18
Speaker 6: taking tactical decisions that then influence long term strategy. And
18:22
Speaker 6: nowhere is that more the case than on China. If
18:24
Speaker 6: you could almost work back from the end of this term,
18:27
Speaker 6: maybe the end of two terms as Prime minister, and
18:29
Speaker 6: think what is the overall tone of that relationship with
18:31
Speaker 6: China and how do we get kind of early decisions
18:34
Speaker 6: right to reflect that overall strategy.
18:37
Speaker 2: As you say, pretty early decision he's going to have
18:39
Speaker 2: to make is defense spending, and the Conservatives who've committed
18:42
Speaker 2: to two point five by twenty thirty, and Labor obviously
18:45
Speaker 2: hasn't committed to that yet, and he's got the NATO
18:47
Speaker 2: summit days after coming in. Do you think Labor's position
18:51
Speaker 2: can hold on in terms of two point five whenever
18:53
Speaker 2: we can, which is basically their current position, or will
18:56
Speaker 2: will they come under pressure from Biden or other allies
18:59
Speaker 2: to really firm up their policy on that.
19:01
Speaker 6: I think there will be pressure there, but I also
19:03
Speaker 6: think they can hold off. A lot of expectations around
19:06
Speaker 6: that summit will be that they're talking to a grown
19:10
Speaker 6: up who's going to be there for eight years, and
19:14
Speaker 6: the body language and the tone will be as important
19:16
Speaker 6: as what they announce, it will be this sense that
19:19
Speaker 6: you have a prime minister there who is going to
19:21
Speaker 6: be engaged. He's going to build the relationships, he's going
19:23
Speaker 6: to work on these practical issues. So I think they'll
19:25
Speaker 6: give him some time. There won't be an expectation that
19:28
Speaker 6: everything happens immediately. You know, I mentioned how difficult the
19:32
Speaker 6: calendar is for those thirty days, but that's also an
19:34
Speaker 6: opportunity because you can do a lot of that stake craft,
19:38
Speaker 6: a lot of that relationship building, and try to hold
19:41
Speaker 6: off some of those big long term strategic decisions. That
19:44
Speaker 6: would be my advice to them.
19:45
Speaker 4: And he'll be hosting, of course, all the European leaders
19:48
Speaker 4: at blenh And Palace was in a few weeks of
19:50
Speaker 4: becoming Prime minister as well. If you were advising him
19:52
Speaker 4: high should he approach that sort of initial speed to
19:55
Speaker 4: it with all these quick bilasterals with those European leaders.
19:58
Speaker 6: Well, you've made it sound much more fun than it
19:59
Speaker 6: will really be. Speed dating is one way of putting it.
20:02
Speaker 6: It's pretty crueling. I mean, there's no room for error.
20:05
Speaker 6: And of course the media, as you know, we used
20:08
Speaker 6: to always talk about on the plane on the way back.
20:10
Speaker 6: Normally from these visits immediately waiting for any sign that
20:14
Speaker 6: you know of incompetence or failure or gap. The first
20:16
Speaker 6: few months when I worked for David Cameron, the media,
20:18
Speaker 6: we're just waiting, hanging on his every word for him
20:21
Speaker 6: to get something wrong. And these are kind of complex briefs,
20:25
Speaker 6: and in the midst of it all you're trying to
20:27
Speaker 6: build that relationship with these other leaders, and so much
20:29
Speaker 6: of that is it's actually about the theater of it.
20:32
Speaker 6: And in the midst of that, many of those European
20:34
Speaker 6: leaders are also in a state of flux as well.
20:37
Speaker 6: Macronlemal delay and you know the Germans that so all
20:41
Speaker 6: of that it's like a sort of multi dimensional game
20:44
Speaker 6: of chess. Now he'll have brilliant people around him who
20:47
Speaker 6: will have prepared those enormous stacks of briefing, but it
20:50
Speaker 6: would be somebody's job to basically say to him before
20:53
Speaker 6: every meeting, as I used to have to do with
20:54
Speaker 6: with with Gordon and then with David Cameron, well you know,
20:57
Speaker 6: here are the three things that you've got to remember
21:00
Speaker 6: in this meeting. That's three things to get right, and
21:02
Speaker 6: here are the three things that you're going to be
21:04
Speaker 6: hit by from the other side.
21:05
Speaker 1: You've painted the opportunities for Starmer, but there are problems
21:10
Speaker 1: and there are sort of limits to his maneuverability. Let's
21:14
Speaker 1: just sort of chunk them up. We've heard from Ellen
21:16
Speaker 1: Melogan earlier about restrictions to his ability on Europe and
21:21
Speaker 1: what he might do to make Brexit work better for
21:23
Speaker 1: the UK. What's your analysis of where that ends up.
21:27
Speaker 6: That will take time and shouldn't be rushed. My advice
21:30
Speaker 6: to them would be to try and get a sort
21:32
Speaker 6: of heavyweight character in there. You know, there are lots
21:35
Speaker 6: of these big figures from previous labor. I think they've
21:39
Speaker 6: got a great ambassador on the ground already. I'm I'm
21:41
Speaker 6: not suggesting, I'm not trying to fire task force. I
21:46
Speaker 6: mean having someone who really owns that dossier and is
21:49
Speaker 6: working at twenty four to seven to work out where
21:52
Speaker 6: the opportunities will be to rebuild that relationship in very practical,
21:56
Speaker 6: tangible ways. I think the low hanging fruit in all
21:59
Speaker 6: of that is on security and defense, where it's clearly
22:03
Speaker 6: in the interests of the Europeans that we're working more
22:05
Speaker 6: closely together. And I believe, and more importantly, our defense
22:08
Speaker 6: people believe that it's very much in our interests that
22:10
Speaker 6: we align more clearly in response to these threats from
22:14
Speaker 6: Russia inside Europe, from new weapons from cyber Ai. You know,
22:19
Speaker 6: there are lots and lots of reasons why we need
22:21
Speaker 6: that alignment, and so it feels like that's an early
22:24
Speaker 6: prize for an incoming Labor administration, but also for the
22:27
Speaker 6: Europeans as well.
22:28
Speaker 4: Tom, do you have someone in mind when you're saying
22:30
Speaker 4: you need someone to really own that brief, because.
22:36
Speaker 6: Definitely I've got my hands for.
22:39
Speaker 4: We were talking about this earlier. David miller Band former
22:43
Speaker 4: of course Labor Foreign Secretary now in America leading a
22:46
Speaker 4: big NGO. He gave a very interesting speech at the
22:49
Speaker 4: Irish Embassy within the past couple of months on the
22:52
Speaker 4: UK's relationship with the EU and the US. It looked
22:55
Speaker 4: like he was sort of making a pitch for David
22:57
Speaker 4: Lammy's job or the US and sit a role, but
23:01
Speaker 4: we hit the real focus was on the UK and EU.
23:03
Speaker 4: Do you think that's that's something for him.
23:06
Speaker 6: I wouldn't know. And we're never very good at using
23:08
Speaker 6: our kind of former big figures in the UK. And
23:11
Speaker 6: it's a cross party problem and it's a whitehall problem.
23:13
Speaker 6: As well. We tend to assume that once someone has
23:15
Speaker 6: left office, they're sort of no longer on the bench.
23:18
Speaker 6: For us. You've got great people cross party. David Cameron's
23:21
Speaker 6: one of them, for example. I don't know whether he'll
23:24
Speaker 6: be sat standing by the phone after the election waiting
23:26
Speaker 6: for a call, but you know, using that expertise and
23:30
Speaker 6: that heft and that those networks that he's built up.
23:33
Speaker 6: David Millervan is obviously a massive heavyweight. Knows the UN
23:37
Speaker 6: inside out, knows the Americans, particularly the Democrats, very well.
23:40
Speaker 1: It's very surprising if you didn't have some kind of role,
23:43
Speaker 1: wouldn't it I'm not my observation.
23:46
Speaker 6: Would seem a waste. It seem would seem a waste
23:49
Speaker 6: not to have. You know, some of your star strikers
23:51
Speaker 6: on the pitch. I'd add into the mix. Kathy Ashton,
23:54
Speaker 6: former EU High Rep. You know, real pro, amazing behind
23:57
Speaker 6: the scenes negotiator, massive credibility in Washington and in Europe,
24:02
Speaker 6: and really good networks. Valerie Amos who ran at the
24:06
Speaker 6: UN Coordinated Humanitarian Affairs, you know, another massive heavyweight in
24:10
Speaker 6: the UN system. So you've got always big names out there.
24:13
Speaker 6: I'm now going to get Ino trouble with all the people,
24:15
Speaker 6: haven't You haven't mentioned. But we should get better. We
24:19
Speaker 6: should be bigger as a government and better at bringing
24:22
Speaker 6: those voices into the conversation.
24:24
Speaker 1: But one of the problems he will have is whatever
24:27
Speaker 1: the shape of the French Parliament is in the next
24:29
Speaker 1: couple of weeks, what do you think will be the
24:32
Speaker 1: impact of a move to the right in the French
24:34
Speaker 1: Parliament on a starmer policy platform.
24:37
Speaker 6: I mean, I think it will make his europeanislckats very jumpy,
24:42
Speaker 6: very edgy. That you know, they're not talking about the
24:44
Speaker 6: UK election. When you go to Paris or Berlin or Brussels,
24:48
Speaker 6: the conversation is all about France at the moment, and
24:52
Speaker 6: and about that wider right wood shift in Europe. It's
24:55
Speaker 6: strange to think after the last you know, let's say
24:58
Speaker 6: decade or so, where the UK has often resembled this
25:02
Speaker 6: kind of circular firing squad and everyone's been looking in
25:04
Speaker 6: at us and saying, can you stop exporting problems and
25:07
Speaker 6: start exporting solutions again? It'd be strange to think that
25:11
Speaker 6: at the end of this year, depending on what happens
25:13
Speaker 6: in the States, the Brits could be one of the
25:15
Speaker 6: real grown ups in the room again one of the
25:18
Speaker 6: forces of stability and calm in that conversation. But it
25:21
Speaker 6: will definitely influence how much attention those Europeans are able
25:25
Speaker 6: to spend on the practical things, because they will be
25:27
Speaker 6: very jittery.
25:28
Speaker 1: Let's move on to Gaza in the Middle East. You
25:30
Speaker 1: said at the beginning of the conversation you thought, actually
25:32
Speaker 1: the summer could bring things even more to a head,
25:34
Speaker 1: and it might bring in your old stomping ground of Lebanon,
25:37
Speaker 1: Alverat and alex report a lot on the balance within
25:41
Speaker 1: the Labor Party of opinion wanting Starma to be tougher
25:45
Speaker 1: on Israel and so on, possible even discussions of an
25:47
Speaker 1: arms embargo. How does that play for Starma? Is there
25:51
Speaker 1: a clear role for him to lead that in the
25:53
Speaker 1: international community or will he have to rein that in.
25:56
Speaker 6: I think all these issues look very different the moment
25:59
Speaker 6: you're on the other side of the black door as well,
26:02
Speaker 6: that moment when you know you assume the role of
26:04
Speaker 6: Prime Minister and the phone calls start coming in. You know,
26:07
Speaker 6: as David Cameron walked through that door, I pretty much
26:09
Speaker 6: handed in the phone and said President at Arma's on
26:11
Speaker 6: the line. And here's what you need to say, so
26:14
Speaker 6: it will feel and look different to the team when
26:17
Speaker 6: they're in there. I think that they clearly have an
26:20
Speaker 6: early decision to make on whether to recognize the state
26:23
Speaker 6: of Palestine, and that will be one way of showing
26:27
Speaker 6: that they can do things slightly different. I think they'll
26:29
Speaker 6: have an early decision on whether to resume funding to UNRAH,
26:32
Speaker 6: the Refugee and Works Agency for the Palestinians, which will
26:35
Speaker 6: certainly be something the Foreign Office and other bits of
26:37
Speaker 6: government will be saying, you know, we've got to get
26:38
Speaker 6: back in there and start to rebuild, start to support civilians.
26:42
Speaker 6: So perhaps those decisions come sooner than decisions on in
26:45
Speaker 6: arms embargo, for example. They've got to basically think about
26:48
Speaker 6: how do we get the narrative back to the two
26:50
Speaker 6: states solution, how do we get it back onto the
26:52
Speaker 6: big prize here, which is normalization of relations between Israel
26:57
Speaker 6: and the wider region that includes a Palestine and state.
27:00
Speaker 6: You know, that's the big conversation if you're looking five
27:03
Speaker 6: ten years ahead. And so they've got to be careful
27:05
Speaker 6: not to make those sort of tactical misjudgments that might
27:08
Speaker 6: undermine that strategic objective and then as I say, you
27:12
Speaker 6: know this real fear I have that we could through
27:16
Speaker 6: the summer be into a different phase of conflict. You know,
27:18
Speaker 6: Israel and Hesbela already at war. More Hebela fighters have
27:21
Speaker 6: died since October the seventh than in the whole two
27:23
Speaker 6: thousand and six conflict. More rockets have been fired by
27:26
Speaker 6: Hisbellah on Israeli towns than in that whole conflict. It's
27:29
Speaker 6: not as bad as it can be, and I fear
27:31
Speaker 6: it will get much worse. But that will probably be
27:34
Speaker 6: the big issue that dominates the first summer of Labor
27:37
Speaker 6: foreign policy.
27:38
Speaker 2: On the arms in bargo for Israel. Possibly David Lammy's
27:42
Speaker 2: scrutiny of David cameron over the last few months has
27:44
Speaker 2: left Labor in a position where they are essentially in
27:47
Speaker 2: favor of stopping arms to Israel in all but name.
27:50
Speaker 2: You know that everything that they say about why has
27:53
Speaker 2: the government not published legal advice going back months in
27:57
Speaker 2: terms of what Israel's been up to in cars? Is
28:01
Speaker 2: it possible for Labor to wrote back from that position.
28:04
Speaker 6: When you look at the statements David Lammy has made
28:06
Speaker 6: a shadow Foreign secretary, but also look at Kirstarmer's background
28:10
Speaker 6: in international human rights law, it's very difficult for them
28:14
Speaker 6: not to be in a position where they're backing up
28:16
Speaker 6: the rule of law, and so I suspect, and you know,
28:21
Speaker 6: my advice to them would be that they should they
28:22
Speaker 6: should get in there and see what that legal advice is.
28:25
Speaker 6: And I think at that point that the decisions that
28:28
Speaker 6: they have to take will become very very clear. I
28:30
Speaker 6: don't know them well enough to know how they take decisions,
28:33
Speaker 6: but I suspect, having observed them from distance, that they're
28:37
Speaker 6: probably quite methodical, quite practical about it, and quite loyally
28:41
Speaker 6: in it all. So I imagine they they'll get in there
28:44
Speaker 6: with their own legal advisors and take their view, and
28:48
Speaker 6: that could lead to a different policy outcome in the end,
28:50
Speaker 6: But it depends what's in that advice.
28:52
Speaker 4: Tom. It's so interesting from hearing you speak, it's as
28:55
Speaker 4: though you expect David Lammie and the Labor administration to
28:58
Speaker 4: sort of be a bit more muscular, to take a
29:00
Speaker 4: bit more of a lead on those kinds of questions
29:02
Speaker 4: and make up their own minds on it. When I've
29:05
Speaker 4: been speaking to them privately over the past few months,
29:08
Speaker 4: it has felt with a lot of the things on
29:10
Speaker 4: Gaza that they've just been very careful to track what
29:13
Speaker 4: the Americans are doing. So I'm wondering, how will those
29:17
Speaker 4: conversations with the US go about the UK potentially wanting
29:21
Speaker 4: to recognize Palestine and those kinds of things, How would
29:24
Speaker 4: that affect the US relationship.
29:26
Speaker 6: It will be on that list of on that first
29:29
Speaker 6: agenda for that first contact with Biden in July, for
29:34
Speaker 6: that first phone call. Probably I imagine Biden would put down
29:37
Speaker 6: a marker on that call that he looks forward to
29:39
Speaker 6: discussing Ukraine, NATO, and the Middle East and probably China.
29:46
Speaker 6: Those will be the three things. I think the Americans
29:48
Speaker 6: will just want to register that level of interest and
29:51
Speaker 6: concern on early on to signal that when they actually
29:54
Speaker 6: do then sit down and you know, a few days
29:57
Speaker 6: later in Washington, that they'll be there serious pressure from
30:00
Speaker 6: the Americans or all three. Ukraine LATO is top of
30:04
Speaker 6: that list, actually above above the Middle East. I think
30:08
Speaker 6: the American administration at the moment is trying to exert
30:11
Speaker 6: a lot of pressure on Israel behind the scenes to
30:13
Speaker 6: restrain them from a full scale invasion of Lebanon and
30:18
Speaker 6: to try and try and get them to change the
30:20
Speaker 6: conduct of the war in Gaza. Now there may be
30:24
Speaker 6: a public line therefore with pressure on the UK not
30:28
Speaker 6: to be more creative and muscular as you describe then,
30:31
Speaker 6: but I wonder whether in private whether there will be
30:33
Speaker 6: so tough with the UK. Maybe they'll think it's in
30:36
Speaker 6: their interest to have the UK slightly outriding a bit
30:40
Speaker 6: to remind Israel that it's not as straightforward as they
30:44
Speaker 6: think it is.
30:45
Speaker 1: Currently the US administration is when you can see the
30:47
Speaker 1: star mutee working very comfortably with If there's a change
30:49
Speaker 1: in November to Trump, we've heard of this David Lammy
30:52
Speaker 1: idea of progressive realism that's going to see them work
30:55
Speaker 1: we think very comfortably with Trump.
30:57
Speaker 3: How credible is that?
30:59
Speaker 6: I think Trump in his first term did a huge
31:02
Speaker 6: amount to prove his critics right. He vandalized the alliances
31:07
Speaker 6: on which we rely, He vandalized the institutions like NATO
31:11
Speaker 6: and the UN that are such a key part of
31:14
Speaker 6: UK strategic interests. And of course he vandalized the values
31:19
Speaker 6: that we share with the Americans, with the Europeans and
31:22
Speaker 6: with others. And I worry that the Trump two point
31:24
Speaker 6: zero would be even more erratic, would crash around even
31:28
Speaker 6: more and do even more damage to our interests. Now,
31:30
Speaker 6: let's see, maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I think
31:34
Speaker 6: most diplomats would share that fear as to what we
31:38
Speaker 6: might face after November if somehow the American people elect him. Now,
31:44
Speaker 6: what does that mean for Prime Minister Starmer and a
31:47
Speaker 6: Foreign Secretary Lammy. It will mean that they do have
31:51
Speaker 6: to kind of pull their punchers a bit in the
31:54
Speaker 6: next few months, that they do have to hold off
31:57
Speaker 6: in case Trump is elected, because if he is, they'll
32:01
Speaker 6: need to find a way to build a pragmatic relationship.
32:03
Speaker 6: You know, where can we exert influence, How can we
32:06
Speaker 6: build a relationship where we can actually limit the damage
32:09
Speaker 6: that he will do? And that will mean holding back
32:13
Speaker 6: on some of the temptation to go for strong rhetoric
32:19
Speaker 6: and to think fairly pessimistically about what the minimum we
32:23
Speaker 6: can come out of the next four or five years
32:24
Speaker 6: with is Perhaps.
32:26
Speaker 2: The most immediate sort of danger for Trump presidency is
32:29
Speaker 2: to Ukraine. And you know, if Trump was to change
32:33
Speaker 2: America's position on Ukraine towards negotiations towards you know, seeding territory,
32:40
Speaker 2: do you think Starmer is he able to counter that?
32:44
Speaker 2: Is he able to lobby Trump against moving America's position
32:48
Speaker 2: or is that just a no Hoper stance. Can Britain
32:51
Speaker 2: have its own position or does it have to follow
32:53
Speaker 2: America's position on Ukraine?
32:54
Speaker 6: It doesn't have to follow a Trump position on Ukraine.
32:57
Speaker 6: Particularly if Trump was basically fold in the cards and
33:01
Speaker 6: just saying pego putin, you win, which is what that
33:04
Speaker 6: would be. It would be a capitulation to putin. I
33:07
Speaker 6: think this is one of those areas where if progress
33:09
Speaker 6: is made at the European Political Council in July late
33:13
Speaker 6: July in Blenham and building up those relationships, in making
33:17
Speaker 6: that a more load bearing conversation with the Europeans on
33:20
Speaker 6: our security, then you could see a clearer European position
33:23
Speaker 6: in opposition to Trump on that. Now, whether that actually
33:28
Speaker 6: can exercise much influence on him, I'm not sure. We
33:33
Speaker 6: all overestimated the influence that we could have on Trump
33:36
Speaker 6: first time round, you know, sticking him in a gold
33:38
Speaker 6: carriage on the mall and so on. We all like
33:41
Speaker 6: to think that we are so persuasive, and I've seen
33:44
Speaker 6: some Prime ministers feel this way as well, that with
33:47
Speaker 6: such brilliant, influential, persuasive characters, that we can bring these
33:50
Speaker 6: hard liners around. There's no evidence from Trump in the
33:54
Speaker 6: first term that suggests that we can do that, just
33:56
Speaker 6: as there hasn't been much evidence that we could do
33:58
Speaker 6: it with bib nettin Nia who over the last nine months.
34:00
Speaker 1: I mean, there's one hundred more questions, but I think
34:02
Speaker 1: in terms of time, we probably want to run a
34:04
Speaker 1: lot of that. So that's a great place to leave
34:06
Speaker 1: it for now. Tom, Will you come back and join
34:08
Speaker 1: us in the months ahead these events are real rather
34:11
Speaker 1: than in prospect.
34:12
Speaker 6: Yeah, I feel we'll be talking about foreign policy a
34:15
Speaker 6: lot over the next three months.
34:16
Speaker 3: Tom Fletcher, thank you very much.
34:18
Speaker 6: Thank you.
34:24
Speaker 1: It's interesting to hear him be unequivocally concerned about Trump ather.
34:29
Speaker 4: Yees striking, isn't it? Because I suppose some people have
34:32
Speaker 4: maybe made their peace with it or just thinking even
34:35
Speaker 4: I think privately lots of labor people just sort of
34:38
Speaker 4: thinking that that's a bridge they may likely have to cross,
34:41
Speaker 4: and so they're just already thinking about it. It's interesting
34:44
Speaker 4: to just have another voice to spell it again, the
34:47
Speaker 4: mass of concerns around that.
34:48
Speaker 2: I thought it was really interesting him sort of saying
34:50
Speaker 2: that there's almost a naivety among European politicians who think
34:53
Speaker 2: they can go over and diplomatically make their case to
34:57
Speaker 2: Trump world. Boris Johnson, we've s and make the argument
35:01
Speaker 2: to Donald Trump on in favor of continue to support
35:04
Speaker 2: for Ukraine. It is very unclear whether that has made
35:07
Speaker 2: any difference.
35:09
Speaker 4: I was trying to imagine it. It's hard just with
35:12
Speaker 4: the personalities to imagine Starmer and Trump Gelling.
35:16
Speaker 1: I think I think reporters, you guys are going to
35:19
Speaker 1: have a lot of fun at the first Trump Starmer
35:21
Speaker 1: press conference where you've got the former Director of Prosecutions
35:25
Speaker 1: up of the UK alongside someone who's been convicted of
35:28
Speaker 1: fifty four crimes.
35:30
Speaker 2: You could barely imagine two more different people. Everything that
35:34
Speaker 2: Kirs Starmer sets is about public service and restoring priberty
35:39
Speaker 2: in public life and all of this stuff. I think
35:42
Speaker 2: we're pretty pretty clear on how much contempt to Kis
35:44
Speaker 2: Starma had for Boris Johnson. Well, Donald Trump's a different.
35:47
Speaker 1: Level against all of that. I think the thing I
35:51
Speaker 1: have observed in recent years is that you can have
35:53
Speaker 1: unlikely alliances. They can be more powerful because of it,
35:57
Speaker 1: and if their agendas in any way coalesce or a line,
36:01
Speaker 1: then then we have seen.
36:03
Speaker 2: It, Yeah, and it is important to say that we
36:06
Speaker 2: don't for certain know what Trump's going to do. One
36:09
Speaker 2: things like Ukraine optimists in the West clearly see a
36:13
Speaker 2: world where Trump thinks there's political opportunity for him to
36:17
Speaker 2: continue to support Ukraine militarily and to show America is stronger,
36:22
Speaker 2: and you show progress in the way that Biden has
36:25
Speaker 2: unable to be unable to on the on the battlefield.
36:28
Speaker 2: So you know, it's not it's not a complete no hoper,
36:30
Speaker 2: but certainly difficult.
36:32
Speaker 4: I also thought that one of Tom's first comments that
36:35
Speaker 4: we need to get him back on to discuss in
36:36
Speaker 4: more detail maybe is saying about how Labour needs to
36:40
Speaker 4: work backwards in terms of where it wants its relationship
36:43
Speaker 4: with China to be at the end of one parliament
36:46
Speaker 4: or two parliaments. That's clearly the sort of big strategic difficulty.
36:50
Speaker 4: There are lots of sort of industrial and geopolitical questions
36:53
Speaker 4: that Labour's going to have to tackle that everyone's already
36:55
Speaker 4: talking about privately. So I think that's going to be
36:58
Speaker 4: really interesting.
36:58
Speaker 3: Until we see you next.
37:00
Speaker 1: Thank you very much, Alva Ray and Alex Wickham, thanks
37:05
Speaker 1: for listening to this week's vot Nomics from Bloomberg. This
37:08
Speaker 1: episode was hosted by me alegra Stratton with Alex Wickham
37:12
Speaker 1: and Alva Ray. It was produced by Somersadi with bookly
37:15
Speaker 1: support from Chris Martin, production support and sound design by
37:19
Speaker 1: Moses and am Brendan Francis Newnham is our executive producer.
37:24
Speaker 1: Sage Bauman is Head of Podcasts and special thanks to
37:27
Speaker 1: Tom Fletcher and Ellen Milligan. Please subscribe, rate, and review
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