Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - BREAKING: FED *Just* Flipped 📈 + Stock Market News 20 February 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - BREAKING: FED *Just* Flipped 📈 + Stock Market News 20 February 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream, and I want to walk you through the following three things that I think are going to move markets massively, particularly the first two.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: And not understanding it will make you lose out on ginormous opportunities, in my humble opinion.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: So let me share my screen with you and we'll get straight into it.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: One the Fed just stopped something very, very big, bigly even, and understanding what the implications are of that is what's going to affect the stock market for the next 6, 12, 18 months going forwards.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I'll break, walk you through that.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: And then number two wall street and its infinite wisdom I used the word wisdom very loosely there Wants that stocks are overvalued.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: But is that the whole story?
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: I don't think it is.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: I'll walk you through that too.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, many of you are worried about Palantir dropping 10% or something like that, gapping down this morning.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: So we look at exactly what is the smart thing to do there, and if this sounds like something that'd be useful for you, let me know in the chat, write useful or put a smiley.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: That would also do it.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: It'll indicate that you are alive, you're not a bot and you're actually here to learn, which is, of course, our intention, speaking of being here to learn I've got something on that in a second as well but first of all, let me walk you through what the Fed announced yesterday in that very long, very boring set of Fed minutes that came out which the media seems to not read.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: I think they probably put it through chat GPT and ask it what it means.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: But there is this sentence in there and this sentence is enormous, and thanks for all the useful and all the smileys and all the hand waves there from you guys, and this one is big.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: They say it may be appropriate to consider pausing or slowing balance sheet runoff.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Now, what does balance sheet runoff mean?
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: It's language that is as clear as mud, isn't it?
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Balance sheet runoff equals shredding of money, and they've been doing that for the last year and a half or so.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: They're shredding money.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Now what happens when there is less money?
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: There is less money to buy your favorite stock.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: That's the problem.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: We don't like that.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: We actually quite like money printing because, yes, it's inflationary, yes, it makes the little guy poor, but it makes those who own shares much, much, much richer.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: That sounds about wrong, doesn't it really Rather wrong, but it's true, unfortunately.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: So they're going to pause that and I told you about two weeks ago that they're going to do that in June, but it looks like they're bringing it forward on sort of debt ceiling dynamics thing.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: There they're basically worried that certain banks will go belly up if they keep shredding money.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: So is that a good thing, or is that a good thing?
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: It's a very good thing for shareholders.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Very good thing Because it means money shredding is gone.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: What do you do when you don't shred money?
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Inevitably, you end up printing money and interest rates come down and they're going to print money.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: That's exactly what they're going to do, and as long as the US debt accumulation slows down.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: So if Elon does a good job, then it's going to be really good.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: To put it scientifically Now, nibios yeah, we look at that in a second as well.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Earnings they look pretty good on the headline, but markets are hating it.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: And what do you do in a situation like that?
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: Well, that's exactly what I'm going to teach you literally live.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: In 55 minutes.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: We're going to be live at phoenix trendsorg where I will teach you for about two hours, including doing some real trades together.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: I'll walk you through my favorite trade in the world, which I always have on, and how that works.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: But I'll also walk you through where do we buy, where do we sell, because that's super important and what are the actual rules that we have on Wall Street.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: And you can ask me questions and so on.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: And so far, let me see, about 1,700 of you have signed up there.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: We go A few more and we actually have.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: I increased it to 2,000 spots, so 2,000 if you can show up, if you wish.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: So there's a spot for another 280.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: If you're a last minute person desirous of actually learning some real rules somewhere to buy and sell, then come and join me there and then you won't need to tune into this anymore because you'll actually know what you're doing.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Would not be nice, okay?
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: So then let's get on to point two, number two, and that is wall street.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: And they do these, these, these quizzes, right.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: There's sort of a clipboard wielder from bank of america who seems to walk around and asks all the fund managers I think they do it every quarter or something and they say do you think stocks are overvalued?
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: And right now they're saying that they are massively overvalued, more so than they ever have in the last 25 years.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: This might make you feel queasy, it might make you worried, it might make you reach for the pomegranate juice, like I am.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: But what does it actually mean?
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Is it actually the truth?
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: And you'd be surprised to know that Wall Street isn't always truthful.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: In fact, one might argue that Wall Street is a bunch of liars.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Yes, liars, that's what I said.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: I could go to jail for that in Germany.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: I'm sure they're really cranking up the censorship there.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: They're very good at that, very good historic examples of that, and by the Germans Bank of America same bank, by the way that just put out that poll where they said 91% of fund managers say stocks are overvalued.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: They also said that fund managers are bullish long stocks and short everything else.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: So they're bullish, they have all their money in stocks, cash levels are at a 15-year low in funds, but they all think stocks are overvalued.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Now they could be schizophrenic.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: That might be an explanation.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Or it could be that they're just lying, because this is how much cash fund managers have this amount.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: So let's draw a little line there from that and just look back 20 years.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: It's the light blue line here cash as a percentage of assets.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: They've never had this little cash, not because they've spent it.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: It's because they've invested all in stocks the very stocks that they're telling you publicly are overvalued.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: You know why they're doing that.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: You know what they're doing that well, they want to give you the impression that stocks are overvalued so that you, the little retail investor that includes me and Winston they want us to sell.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: That's the intention why?
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: So that funds, institutions can buy cheaper.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Very, very simple.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: They play this game the other way around as well.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: When they say that they think stocks are really cheap, it means they want to sell.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: They want you to buy them off them.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: So it's a really get the other way around as well.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: When they say that, um, they think stocks are really cheap, it means they want to sell.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: They want you to buy them off them.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: So it's a really really peculiar, actually not peculiar.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: It sort of makes sense, doesn't it precisely?
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Judy, you're completely right.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: They want you to sell so that they can pick it up cheap and, um, give it a year or two and they'll flip it around and try it the other way around.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: But it works, because all the muppets of mainstream media, they don't read the report, because reading is difficult for most journalists nowadays.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: They just put out this and they say 91%, or whatever, of fund managers think stocks are overvalued Panic.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: So what do the little old investor people do?
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: They go, oh, stocks are overvalued, I think we better sell.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: And then they do.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: And then they miss out on the whole rally and there's going to be, in my humble opinion, a tremendous rally, and there are a couple of reasons for that.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: And then we get on to Palantir.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: What are my reasons for being bullish?
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: There are a bunch of them.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Ai is one.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: Because it's small.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: It basically means you can do more with less people, which means it makes stuff cheaper.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Ai makes margins go up.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Very simple.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Then two, you have Trump.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Love him or loathe him doesn't really matter.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: He's going to do what.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: He's going to lower taxes, he's going to lower regulations, and you might disagree with that, but that doesn't really matter.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Wall Street likes it.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: And what else is he going to do?
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: He's cutting wasteful spending.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Now, wasteful is obviously what he defines as wasteful, and you know politics, nobody ever agrees on it.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: That's all fine, but it means what?
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: What does wasteful spending cutting mean?
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: It means less debt they do it right, and less debt, they do it right.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: And less debt means what it means.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Lower interest rates, and what are lower interest rates do?
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Higher stock prices?
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: And if you don't follow any of that or you just think the man's a crook, as some people seem to, then, um, just think, um, billionaires are now the US government and will act in self-interest.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: That would be a slightly cynical way of looking at it, but I am a bit of a cynic, so I think both work.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: It doesn't really matter.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: As long as it gets the point across, it's all good.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: So that's what I'm looking at here.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: So I think we are looking at a tremendously wonderful bull market that will be tempered by the occasional scary bits of news, and that's okay, and those scary bits of news opportunities to do what?
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Make more money.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: But your question is then going to be what do I buy?
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: Right, and some of you asking would you buy leaps on palantir now?
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Uh, should be sell it, should we buy it?
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: You know all that kind of stuff and and let's, let's get into, and let's get into that, let's get into that.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: And I'll show you what I tweeted four hours ago and you won't like it.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: And I read this Palantir evangelists won't like me for saying this Take profits when you drop below the trend, it'd be half the position Unless you lock in profits.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Why are you investing again and I do mean that and I put this little little chart up here and I can open that up for you a bit bigger in in trade vision, which is, you know, the software that we use.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: So by all means, get yourself a free trial for it.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: There it is felix ranzalock trade vision, and the last breakout was here at a hundred dollars, and the one before that was at 51 and then at 34, and then at 27 and so on, and I'm sure there was a soul who bought up here $122.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: I'm God, rest his soul.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: But what I like to do is I like to put in these trend lines and I'll explain to you exactly how we do that and where we put them in the live masterclass in a moment, which will be education and not news.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: So if you go in the masterclass and ask me about which will be education and not news, so if you go in the masterclass and ask me about the latest stock, I probably won't answer you, but I'll answer you if you're asking about how to be determined where to exit, and for me, generally speaking, a smart point is to, when you break below this trend line, you take a little bit off the stove to protect your capital, because you've had a beautiful run up and right now you're up here again.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: It's the same story.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: We've had a beautiful run up since the last breakout, where it was a good point to buy, and now we dropped yesterday to drop below the 119.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: End of the day at 112.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Right now, we're trading at 108.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: Day at 112.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Right now, we're trading at 108.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: So for me, it's a good point to take some money off the stove, because we do this to make money, not to make money with a particular stock.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: And if you're thinking, but I'm going to miss out on the rally, it's going to go to $1 billion by the end of the week.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: It's possible, yes, but the only decisions you can make are those based on the facts that are presented to you.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: And if you throw risk management out of the window because you're relying on hope, you're going to end up broke.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Very simple, and it's very unpleasant.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: It's very hard to do, which is why I'm about to teach you, if you join me, in 47 minutes, how we automate this, because that's really important.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: But the next?
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Where's the next stop.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: There's a support of 100.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: That's psychologically quite important.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: And then there's the 50-day moving average line at 83.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: You have to ask yourself are you happy with Palantir at 83?
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Or should you maybe take some profits here?
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: That's what I would look at.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: And if you bought at the very, very top, please join my masterclass so you never do that again.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: And, by the way, every time you lose money, and if it encourages you to learn and get better, then it is money well spent.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: I call it tuition, but you can do it cheaper.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: You can just learn from the outset and then not start the gambling right.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Get green, get out, sister.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: And you're quite right on that.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: I completely agree with you on that.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: It isn't overvalued.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: I think that's sort of almost like a religious conversation, like there isn't really a right or a wrong.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: The stock's worth whatever the market thinks it's worth.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: The fundamental thing doesn't really come into it.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: If you are looking at a day or two, looking at 10 years or something, then yeah, you may have a point.