Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - US Open Betting Preview
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- 1:20Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
- 1:25Speaker 1: I am Schad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
- 1:29Speaker 1: It's US Open week. Obviously a lot of conversations happening
- 1:33Speaker 1: in Brookline, where the U s Open is being held.
- 1:35Speaker 1: For the first time in a quarter century. Live golf
- 1:39Speaker 1: started last week. We're gonna have Jason Sobel come on.
- 1:42Speaker 1: He's at Brookline. He's gonna talk about handicap in the
- 1:46Speaker 1: US Open. He's going to talk about the scuttle butt
- 1:48Speaker 1: on the tour, generally about live golf, how players are
- 1:52Speaker 1: reacting to it, our personal interpretations of everything. Before we
- 1:56Speaker 1: get to that, my bff, my companion, Mike and Padre
- 1:59Speaker 1: professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Siman, what's going on? Brother? Dude?
- 2:05Speaker 1: You and I were together on Friday night. Facts. You
- 2:09Speaker 1: picked me up in your slamming convertible beamer in front
- 2:14Speaker 1: of my hotel and we've made our way out to
- 2:17Speaker 1: Citizens Bank Ballpark to watch the Phillies, and my god,
- 2:21Speaker 1: it was. It couldn't have been a more perfect night. Yeah, yeah,
- 2:25Speaker 1: perfect weather, good fan base, a lot of fans that
- 2:27Speaker 1: are not a rowdy fan base either. No, we never
- 2:29Speaker 1: felt threatened. You know, we got a bad rap here
- 2:31Speaker 1: in Philadelphia. Chad and I both wore neutral colors. No
- 2:34Speaker 1: one said a word to us the whole time we
- 2:36Speaker 1: were there. I was surprised. I was surprised at how
- 2:38Speaker 1: many people were there. I mean the stadium was pretty
- 2:40Speaker 1: packed actually, and uh but it was a great night.
- 2:44Speaker 1: We had ridiculously good seats, fourth row behind along the
- 2:49Speaker 1: first baseline, just beyond the extension of the Phillies dugout.
- 2:53Speaker 1: I believe we had three guys sitting behind us. So
- 2:56Speaker 1: if anyone's ever seen the movie Slap Shot, and you
- 2:58Speaker 1: know the triplets in that movie, the three Triplets, that's
- 3:01Speaker 1: literally what was sitting right behind me and chat the
- 3:03Speaker 1: entire game. It was great. These guys are described These
- 3:07Speaker 1: were the hardest core Philly fans. You can imagine that
- 3:10Speaker 1: guys have not missed the game ever. Someone walked, someone
- 3:13Speaker 1: get walked, and the guy goes, remember Barry Bonds used
- 3:15Speaker 1: to walk a lot. Barry Bonds. Can you imagine Barry
- 3:17Speaker 1: Bonds on this lineup, and they were just about stuff
- 3:21Speaker 1: like that. It was truly incredible how these guys were
- 3:24Speaker 1: just flowing, they were they were such It was like
- 3:26Speaker 1: Bryce Harper, Bryce Harper starting to get warm. It's getting
- 3:28Speaker 1: really warm summer months. He's really starting to do well.
- 3:31Speaker 1: You know. They were talking about how they were freezing
- 3:34Speaker 1: for opening night, like for Charlie Manuel's first game in
- 3:38Speaker 1: his run as the Phillies manager. It was fantastic. You
- 3:42Speaker 1: and I got to hang. I got to eat some
- 3:44Speaker 1: ice cream in a helmet. You bought some peanuts, We
- 3:47Speaker 1: had a hot dog, and then there was one particular
- 3:49Speaker 1: moment I went to get some ice cream. We eat
- 3:52Speaker 1: each had a beer. At that point, you wanted another beer.
- 3:55Speaker 1: Went to get some ice cream and a beer, and
- 3:58Speaker 1: then what happened to the woman behind the counter? What what?
- 4:00Speaker 1: What did she say? Yeah, even though I had a
- 4:02Speaker 1: full beard, this woman didn't believe me about my age,
- 4:05Speaker 1: so she asked me for an I d I of
- 4:07Speaker 1: course didn't bring it in. I left it in my
- 4:09Speaker 1: car because I'm an idiot. Chad stepped up. He said,
- 4:12Speaker 1: I have my idea on me. I said, I said, listen,
- 4:15Speaker 1: he's not getting the beer. The beers for me, and
- 4:18Speaker 1: she goes I don't need your idea, honey, you're too sexy.
- 4:23Speaker 1: And I honestly was taken back when she said it.
- 4:26Speaker 1: I was like, what, what did she just say? But
- 4:28Speaker 1: she gave this little smirk and look at Chad and Chad, wow,
- 4:31Speaker 1: I don't since I get that red and a long time.
- 4:34Speaker 1: I don't think it's because I'm, you know, pulling up
- 4:36Speaker 1: polly walnuts and the side of my head is all gray.
- 4:40Speaker 1: I think it's truly She's like, I'm serious, you're too sexy.
- 4:43Speaker 1: I don't need your I d I brought that home
- 4:45Speaker 1: with me, told Stacy. I told the boys just to
- 4:48Speaker 1: remind them that when I go out and I met
- 4:51Speaker 1: a Phillies game, senior beer vendors who think I'm a
- 4:55Speaker 1: little bit sexy, I think you're gonna say, when I
- 4:57Speaker 1: go out and I go to baseball games, I don't
- 4:59Speaker 1: drink beer. I go and get ice cream. Out of that,
- 5:03Speaker 1: we're not surprised him, by the way, I was not
- 5:06Speaker 1: surprised when it was happening, Chad. I'll be honest, I
- 5:09Speaker 1: was like, this is right on course with who I
- 5:11Speaker 1: think Chad is. I am. I was completely on brand
- 5:14Speaker 1: and us because I knew Chad would love him. Chad
- 5:16Speaker 1: was just going all in on those peanuts. I went
- 5:19Speaker 1: all on the peanuts, and you actually said, should we
- 5:21Speaker 1: go get another beer? I'm like, I can get some
- 5:23Speaker 1: ice cream. Great night, great to hang with you. Philly
- 5:28Speaker 1: is a great town. I freaking love Philly. You saw
- 5:30Speaker 1: the best part though, top down and eighty degree weather
- 5:33Speaker 1: driving around the city of Philadelphia. It's a beautiful city.
- 5:36Speaker 1: But yeah, it's as people know, there's definitely sketchy parts,
- 5:39Speaker 1: but center city can't beat. It's just such a beautiful,
- 5:43Speaker 1: beautiful city, especially the old with the new mixed together.
- 5:46Speaker 1: It's just really pretty. Love it, Love it alright, Simon uh,
- 5:50Speaker 1: let's bring our friend Jason Sobel in from Brookline, mass
- 5:55Speaker 1: Um we'll prev the U s Open. Ye fit? All right,
- 6:00Speaker 1: Let's bring in Jason Sobel live on the scene from Brookline,
- 6:05Speaker 1: Massachusetts for the US Open. First time in Brookline since
- 6:12Speaker 1: Jason Sobel. And before we get to breaking down the course,
- 6:15Speaker 1: breaking down the players, long shots, top five, top ten, etcetera,
- 6:20Speaker 1: let's talk about live versus p g A. Phil Nicholson
- 6:26Speaker 1: another sort of shameful press conference yesterday. What's your take
- 6:33Speaker 1: on what's happening? What's it like on the ground. So
- 6:35Speaker 1: hello chack Low Simon, thanks for having me on as always.
- 6:38Speaker 1: And boy, there's a lot of moving parts to this.
- 6:41Speaker 1: And let me let me fill in those who aren't
- 6:43Speaker 1: really sure what's going on in golf right now with
- 6:45Speaker 1: a little bit of a primer. Essentially, the PGA Tour
- 6:48Speaker 1: has been the biggest game in town for oh sixty
- 6:51Speaker 1: years or so. When the best players in the world
- 6:53Speaker 1: played the PGA Tour, they get paid lots of money
- 6:55Speaker 1: based on how they play, and we all know how
- 6:57Speaker 1: it works. Uh. The Saudio rad In government, through the
- 7:00Speaker 1: Public Investment Fund, has started a golf league called Live Golf,
- 7:06Speaker 1: and they have gone after a lot of players and
- 7:08Speaker 1: instead of just earning money and yes, they can still
- 7:11Speaker 1: earn a lot of money for what they actually make
- 7:13Speaker 1: in a tournament, they're giving them these wild essentially signing bonuses.
- 7:18Speaker 1: And so you probably heard Phil Nicholson, Dustin Johnson and
- 7:21Speaker 1: now Bryson to Shambo, Patrick Reid are going over to
- 7:25Speaker 1: Live Golf. And there's going to be a huge fracture
- 7:28Speaker 1: within the golf community of PGA Tour players and Live golfers.
- 7:33Speaker 1: And so the reason this is so polarizing is if
- 7:36Speaker 1: Live Golf and come around and said, hey, we're gonna
- 7:38Speaker 1: have a league. It's gonna be based in Saudi Arabia.
- 7:41Speaker 1: They play more events in the United States than anywhere
- 7:44Speaker 1: else that they just had an event in London to
- 7:46Speaker 1: kick things off. We're gonna have this league. It's gonna
- 7:48Speaker 1: be a rival league to the PGA Tour, and we're
- 7:50Speaker 1: gonna run it just like the PGA Tour, with the
- 7:53Speaker 1: same monetary prizes, monetary values. All these players would say, no, thanks,
- 7:58Speaker 1: I already play on a league. It does that. Why
- 8:00Speaker 1: why would I want that? I'm perfectly happy with the
- 8:03Speaker 1: PGA Tour. If Live Golf was let's say run through Canada,
- 8:08Speaker 1: Let's say a billionaire in the maple syrup industry said hey,
- 8:12Speaker 1: we'd like to give you millions and millions of dollars
- 8:14Speaker 1: to come play. There wouldn't be a whole lot of
- 8:16Speaker 1: controversy because I don't know, everyone kind of likes me syrup,
- 8:20Speaker 1: and that would be you know that that seems like
- 8:22Speaker 1: a good alternative to say, Hey, I'm just gonna go
- 8:24Speaker 1: chase the money. We've all we've all got a price,
- 8:26Speaker 1: and go play. The reason this is so polarizing is
- 8:28Speaker 1: because it is essentially sportswashing at its finest, which is uh,
- 8:33Speaker 1: the Saudi Arabian government trying to change the perception and
- 8:37Speaker 1: the field globally of what their country, what their government
- 8:41Speaker 1: has has done as far as human rights um and
- 8:45Speaker 1: and trying to change their image. And they're trying to
- 8:47Speaker 1: change it through sport, and they're trying to change it
- 8:49Speaker 1: through golf. And we'll see if it works. And and
- 8:52Speaker 1: you know, this is not gonna be something that happens tomorrow.
- 8:55Speaker 1: It's not gonna be something that happens next week. It
- 8:57Speaker 1: might be something that happens thirty years down the law
- 9:00Speaker 1: line when our kids are grown and they look at
- 9:02Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia and they say, oh, I don't remember that
- 9:05Speaker 1: nefarious human rights stuff. All I know is they play
- 9:08Speaker 1: golf over there and seems like a nice place you
- 9:10Speaker 1: can go visit. And so that essentially is I think
- 9:13Speaker 1: the long term plan of what they're trying to do.
- 9:15Speaker 1: And they're using guys like Phil Nicholson and Dustin Johnson
- 9:19Speaker 1: essentially as pawns, and they're paying them big time money
- 9:22Speaker 1: to come over and play. And I think a lot
- 9:24Speaker 1: of this is just a hunt for them. It's about
- 9:26Speaker 1: the game. It's about the challenge. How can we disrupt
- 9:28Speaker 1: the business and what number can we put out there
- 9:31Speaker 1: to get these guys to come play for us. So, look,
- 9:36Speaker 1: at the end of the day, it's blood money and
- 9:38Speaker 1: the players are taking it. And I would have more
- 9:41Speaker 1: respect for the players who are taking it. Well, I
- 9:45Speaker 1: don't have any respect for the players who are taking it,
- 9:47Speaker 1: but I would at least be sort of more accepting
- 9:55Speaker 1: if when they were in these press conferences they just said, yeah,
- 9:59Speaker 1: I know it's I went on, I've decided to take
- 10:01Speaker 1: the money. It's a lot of money. I can't turn
- 10:05Speaker 1: it down. I believe in feeding my family and generational
- 10:09Speaker 1: wealth and all the things that come with it, and
- 10:12Speaker 1: that's what it's gonna be. You don't like it, fine,
- 10:14Speaker 1: But they're trying to have it both ways here in
- 10:16Speaker 1: which they want to take the money yet maintain pristine
- 10:19Speaker 1: reputations or say that they're doing it for the betterment
- 10:23Speaker 1: of the game or to expand golf globally. And they
- 10:27Speaker 1: sound like fucking idiots. They sound worse than just saying
- 10:31Speaker 1: They sounded worse than just saying, yeah, I'm taking the
- 10:33Speaker 1: money and that's what I'm doing. I've heard that from
- 10:37Speaker 1: a lot of people. I understand that I don't necessarily
- 10:39Speaker 1: disagree with it. Although in that press conference on Monday,
- 10:42Speaker 1: a very awkward press conference with Phil Nicholson, if he
- 10:46Speaker 1: was being asked about nine eleven, he is being asked
- 10:48Speaker 1: about being bet with the Sawties and becoming partners with them,
- 10:51Speaker 1: It filtered up in front of everyone said, I don't care, man,
- 10:54Speaker 1: I'm getting paid. I got dollar bills. Looking at how
- 10:57Speaker 1: much they're paying me. This is awesome. Man. Doesn't that
- 11:00Speaker 1: sound a whole lot worse than what he said? Well,
- 11:05Speaker 1: yes and no, because the truth is the people who
- 11:09Speaker 1: are going to like Phil are gonna like him no
- 11:12Speaker 1: matter what. There's a certain group of people who will
- 11:15Speaker 1: root for him and not care and not have moral
- 11:19Speaker 1: issues with what he's doing with Live Golf or Dustin
- 11:22Speaker 1: Johnson or anybody else. Sure, but what he's trying to
- 11:26Speaker 1: do is sort of hang on to the people who
- 11:29Speaker 1: do care. And the truth is he can't have it
- 11:32Speaker 1: both ways here, and he doesn't need to have it
- 11:34Speaker 1: both ways because he's getting paid two million dollars to
- 11:38Speaker 1: go do it. It's why he doesn't have any sponsors
- 11:40Speaker 1: on any of his um on any of his clothes
- 11:43Speaker 1: or anything else right now for this. So just fucking
- 11:47Speaker 1: own it, man, That's all to me, that's what it is. Like.
- 11:51Speaker 1: I think it's good for golf. I'm like looking at
- 11:53Speaker 1: it from my standpoint of I look at it as
- 11:57Speaker 1: do guys really move the needle on golf. I know
- 11:58Speaker 1: we're acting like these are for stars, leaving you guys sport,
- 12:01Speaker 1: but it's Tiger Woods and everyone else. It's like, I
- 12:04Speaker 1: just don't remember people being like you gotta tune in
- 12:06Speaker 1: this week and Michelson's playing in the Open or whatever
- 12:09Speaker 1: it is. I'm telling you, it's like maybe they like
- 12:12Speaker 1: Rory mckroy. It's just there's just all these other players.
- 12:15Speaker 1: They're all kind of the same level where it's like
- 12:17Speaker 1: I don't really tell that I don't care if Phil
- 12:19Speaker 1: is not playing. I I'm still watching golf regardless of
- 12:21Speaker 1: Phil Michelson's in a tournament. So to me, I like it.
- 12:24Speaker 1: It's like, Okay, there's certain guys who play golf that
- 12:27Speaker 1: we know they don't really like golf, or they don't
- 12:29Speaker 1: really care about golf, they don't care about the tournaments. Great,
- 12:32Speaker 1: go let them playe live. I like it. I like
- 12:34Speaker 1: that this has kind of made this thing where it's like,
- 12:37Speaker 1: I don't know if to me, if the media drops it,
- 12:40Speaker 1: like if they stopped bringing up at these PGA tours,
- 12:42Speaker 1: what do you think about live all these other things.
- 12:44Speaker 1: I see this going away pretty quick because to me,
- 12:48Speaker 1: it's all about the tournaments, like the four Majors, that's
- 12:51Speaker 1: what we care about. Like I care about the Big Four.
- 12:54Speaker 1: They don't have that with this live tournament. So yeah,
- 12:56Speaker 1: maybe down the road they might have some traction, but
- 12:59Speaker 1: for right now, have nothing changed for me. I still
- 13:01Speaker 1: I just care about the p G A well, at
- 13:03Speaker 1: some point time when we're gonna stop stop talking about
- 13:05Speaker 1: as much as we are still very new and that's
- 13:07Speaker 1: still very much in the news right now. Of course,
- 13:10Speaker 1: what I've heard from a lot of people, it's because
- 13:12Speaker 1: sort of what you're saying is, hey, quantity is better.
- 13:15Speaker 1: We could have choices, we have options. We have two
- 13:18Speaker 1: great golf tours to watch instead of one. My response
- 13:21Speaker 1: to that is, this is not like other industries. This
- 13:24Speaker 1: is not like, hey, we've got one fast food restaurant
- 13:27Speaker 1: in our town. It's McDonald's, and so we always eat
- 13:30Speaker 1: a McDonald's, even though it's dirty and the food is
- 13:32Speaker 1: not good, and now Burger King's coming in, and boy,
- 13:35Speaker 1: Burger King looks pretty good. So now McDonald's gonna have
- 13:38Speaker 1: to clean up their act just so they keep their business.
- 13:40Speaker 1: It's good for the business and it's great for consumers.
- 13:43Speaker 1: I don't think it works that way in sports leagues.
- 13:45Speaker 1: If the NFL was to say, hey, we're gonna break
- 13:48Speaker 1: up into ten little NFL leagues all over the place,
- 13:53Speaker 1: the competition would be deluded. And I think that's what
- 13:55Speaker 1: happens now history history repeats itself the NFL. They've tried
- 14:00Speaker 1: to do this. How many years shouts the NFL have
- 14:02Speaker 1: been trying to get a second league. It just does
- 14:04Speaker 1: not work. And even when they would poach players back
- 14:07Speaker 1: in the day, it just it just doesn't work. Here's
- 14:11Speaker 1: the difference, though, the difference is whether it's XFL or USFL.
- 14:14Speaker 1: In that realm, they're trying to make money, they're trying
- 14:17Speaker 1: to turn a profit, they're trying to have a league
- 14:20Speaker 1: that's a viable league. The Sun of Arabian government they
- 14:22Speaker 1: don't care it's not on TV. They're like, whatever you can,
- 14:26Speaker 1: you can watch online if you want, but we really
- 14:28Speaker 1: care if you do or not it's it's not supposed
- 14:30Speaker 1: to be a viable league to playing fifty four holes.
- 14:33Speaker 1: They're getting like, this is not real golf. We're just
- 14:35Speaker 1: we're gonna pay guys, and you know, we're gonna see
- 14:37Speaker 1: what what it takes, however, a hundred million dollars to
- 14:40Speaker 1: pay these guys and have them come play. And we
- 14:43Speaker 1: don't really care if you watch. We don't care if
- 14:45Speaker 1: we turn a profit. We don't care about anything other
- 14:47Speaker 1: than thirty years down the line, having some golf courses
- 14:51Speaker 1: yere and having people change your mind about what the
- 14:53Speaker 1: government is. So I think that's what a lot of
- 14:56Speaker 1: people are having a hard time sort of wrapping their
- 14:58Speaker 1: minds around, is that this is unlike anything we've seen
- 15:01Speaker 1: before because the usual variables here aren't in play. And
- 15:06Speaker 1: that's what makes it so dangerous is that they've got
- 15:09Speaker 1: unlimited funds. They can they can essentially throw out any
- 15:13Speaker 1: number they want to any player out there, and they
- 15:17Speaker 1: can get these guys. And it's really it's it's not golf,
- 15:20Speaker 1: it's the ice Capades. It's hey, we're gonna we're gonna
- 15:23Speaker 1: get the world's best golfers in. We're gonna pay them,
- 15:25Speaker 1: and they're gonna go play around the world, and yeah,
- 15:28Speaker 1: they're kind of they're competing against each other, but it
- 15:30Speaker 1: doesn't really matter win or lose. You're all still getting
- 15:32Speaker 1: paid anyway. Well, you're right, Uh, it's very insidious because
- 15:39Speaker 1: it is sort of a little bit akin to politics
- 15:43Speaker 1: in the United States, where you can be on one
- 15:47Speaker 1: side of the aisle or the other, but oftentimes politicians
- 15:53Speaker 1: are playing the long game, and there's a lot of
- 15:56Speaker 1: parallels to what the Saudis are doing. You know what
- 16:00Speaker 1: it looks like today, These players are getting used, they're
- 16:03Speaker 1: lining their pockets. They don't give a fuck. The Saudis
- 16:06Speaker 1: don't give a fuck. In thirty years, Jason, you know,
- 16:10Speaker 1: thirty years, you know, I'll be really fucking old. He
- 16:14Speaker 1: won't be as old as me. Simon will still be
- 16:16Speaker 1: fifteen years old. But you know the truth is, you're right,
- 16:20Speaker 1: like people won't care. My younger cuts fifteen right now.
- 16:24Speaker 1: He doesn't care about the p g A, he doesn't
- 16:26Speaker 1: care about golf, doesn't care about live golf. And in
- 16:28Speaker 1: thirty years he won't know what this was and probably
- 16:30Speaker 1: won't care. And in some aspects of this are not
- 16:35Speaker 1: absolutely horrible. I mean, if we want to call it
- 16:38Speaker 1: what it is, forty eight man fields with shotgun starts.
- 16:41Speaker 1: I don't like it for the final round, but for
- 16:43Speaker 1: the first two rounds. I was watching it when it
- 16:45Speaker 1: kicked off last Thursday, guys, and it was kind of cool.
- 16:48Speaker 1: Kicked off nine fifteen a m. Eastern time, and all
- 16:52Speaker 1: of a sudden, within ten minutes, they're doing camera cuts
- 16:54Speaker 1: all over the golf course because every player is playing
- 16:56Speaker 1: rather than easing their way into the morning like the
- 16:59Speaker 1: PGA Tour. I'm like, I kind of don't hate this.
- 17:02Speaker 1: I don't love it for the final round. I don't
- 17:03Speaker 1: want to see you guy winning a golf tournament on
- 17:05Speaker 1: the sixth hole or something like that. But I think
- 17:08Speaker 1: for the first couple of rounds. I mean, like I said,
- 17:10Speaker 1: it's not on TV, it's only streaming online. That's not bad.
- 17:13Speaker 1: The broadcast wasn't terrible. All right, Well, let's talk about
- 17:16Speaker 1: what's actually happening on the course this week. Like we
- 17:18Speaker 1: said Europe, Brookline, it's the US Open. First time at
- 17:20Speaker 1: brook Line. Since you had a column on Action network
- 17:24Speaker 1: dot com your preview of the US Open that went
- 17:26Speaker 1: up yesterday, reminder, everyone can listen to Links and Locks,
- 17:30Speaker 1: the podcast from the Action Network, they can watch the
- 17:32Speaker 1: gimme to get into even more detail on the US Open.
- 17:36Speaker 1: But back at Brookline, tell us a little bit about
- 17:39Speaker 1: the course. Uh, this course, I did a spin around
- 17:41Speaker 1: you or yesterday. We're talking on Tuesday now one day,
- 17:44Speaker 1: just kind of a little spin around the golf where
- 17:46Speaker 1: it looks awesome. It is in such good shape right now.
- 17:49Speaker 1: It is gonna be fast, fiery, It's gonna get a
- 17:53Speaker 1: little baked out. It's gonna go a little crusty this weekend.
- 17:56Speaker 1: Uh excuse me. Hopefully the the temperatures remain hot. There's
- 18:00Speaker 1: a little wind coming through here. That's perfect for US Open.
- 18:04Speaker 1: A lot of a lot of false fronts on these
- 18:06Speaker 1: greens where you'll see some shots that look like a
- 18:10Speaker 1: good shot approach into the green lands ten feetle over
- 18:13Speaker 1: the hole. You're like, oh, that's good, he's got a
- 18:15Speaker 1: Bertie butt, And all of a sudden, that ball just
- 18:17Speaker 1: starts to move just a little bit, and then a
- 18:20Speaker 1: little more and that starts rolling. Next thing you know,
- 18:23Speaker 1: you've got a sixty yard pitch shot straight back up
- 18:26Speaker 1: the hill from where you started. You're gonna see a
- 18:29Speaker 1: lot of that. You're gonna see guys, slamming their clubs
- 18:31Speaker 1: down and muttering to themselves and really frustrated with what
- 18:35Speaker 1: they think is a good shot that winds up being
- 18:38Speaker 1: really poor and really penalizing. So in the in the
- 18:42Speaker 1: story you wrote um this week, you talked about how
- 18:47Speaker 1: the evolution of champions at the US Open has changed
- 18:54Speaker 1: over the years. Uh, explain what you what you described there?
- 18:59Speaker 1: So used to be the major championship for the little guys,
- 19:03Speaker 1: Corey Pavitt, Lee Jansen, Jim Furik, Graham McDowell, all guys
- 19:07Speaker 1: who didn't hit it three thirty yards off the team
- 19:10Speaker 1: weren't big, strong guys, but they would keep it out
- 19:13Speaker 1: of the rough. They would essentially keep in the fairway,
- 19:16Speaker 1: hit the greens, make a lot of cars, don't make
- 19:19Speaker 1: too many mistakes. What's happened in the last six years
- 19:22Speaker 1: and you you look at the five champions over six years,
- 19:25Speaker 1: books kept because one twice, Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland, Bryson
- 19:29Speaker 1: Deshambo and John Ron last year. It's like the golf's
- 19:33Speaker 1: version of an arm wrestling team. I mean, these are
- 19:36Speaker 1: all big, strong, athletic looking dudes. I won't give you
- 19:40Speaker 1: the Brooks kept. It looks like a linebacker line, because
- 19:43Speaker 1: that's not quite true. But they all look like they
- 19:45Speaker 1: could be at least maybe like a third basement in
- 19:47Speaker 1: Major League Baseball. I mean, they're all big, strong dudes,
- 19:50Speaker 1: athletic guys. And so the reason for that is essentially
- 19:53Speaker 1: every year in the US Open starts narrowing and narrowing,
- 19:56Speaker 1: narrowing more the fairways. So what's gonna happen is not
- 20:00Speaker 1: only the accurate guy, not only the long hitters are
- 20:02Speaker 1: gonna miss fairways. The guys who are used to hitting
- 20:05Speaker 1: a lot of fairways, they're gonna miss two. Now, you'd
- 20:07Speaker 1: rather be three yards off the tee than to eighty
- 20:11Speaker 1: if you're gonna miss a fairway. And the bigger advantage,
- 20:14Speaker 1: even more so than that, is these big, strong guys
- 20:16Speaker 1: can get it out of the rough, muscle it onto
- 20:18Speaker 1: the greens, whereas the guy who's five six, one thirty,
- 20:22Speaker 1: he can't even He's just gonna have to pitch it
- 20:24Speaker 1: out and he doesn't have to strength the muscle to
- 20:26Speaker 1: get it up there. And so that's where the major
- 20:28Speaker 1: advantages for these guys. Now, it looks like the fairways
- 20:31Speaker 1: here this week at the country Club are a little
- 20:34Speaker 1: bit wider, a little bit more generous. The rough is
- 20:37Speaker 1: it's thick, but it's not as long as we've seen
- 20:39Speaker 1: in recent years. So I do have at least some
- 20:42Speaker 1: hope that some of these shorter hitters, and I have
- 20:45Speaker 1: a handful of them up on top of my list,
- 20:47Speaker 1: I think they have a chance of contending and even
- 20:50Speaker 1: winning this week. And quite frankly, guys, there are no
- 20:53Speaker 1: short hitters in the game anymore anyway. You're either long.
- 20:56Speaker 1: You're either really long, or you're long enough. If you're short,
- 20:59Speaker 1: you're just you don't play. You're not a professional golfer.
- 21:02Speaker 1: You can't exist in this world anymore. And so um
- 21:06Speaker 1: even the guys that we look at and say they're
- 21:08Speaker 1: kind of short. Jordan's speech is a quote unquote short hitter.
- 21:11Speaker 1: I believe he's averaging right around the same number off
- 21:14Speaker 1: the sea as Tony Finnow this year. And you look
- 21:16Speaker 1: at Tony Finell and you know, oh, big strong duty,
- 21:19Speaker 1: it's in a mile, yeah he I mean, if they
- 21:21Speaker 1: want to get into a driving distance contest, I'll take
- 21:24Speaker 1: Tony all day against Jordan. But Jordan's speed certainly hits
- 21:27Speaker 1: it long enough. A lot of these guys they hit
- 21:29Speaker 1: it long enough to at least compete and contend on
- 21:33Speaker 1: a golf course like this one. When you're looking at
- 21:35Speaker 1: bet the Open, how is this one different than all
- 21:38Speaker 1: the other major tournaments. I'm looking at guys. I look
- 21:41Speaker 1: more simon at the personality of players for this event
- 21:46Speaker 1: than at other ones, because I think you need to
- 21:48Speaker 1: have a little bit of patience. I think you need
- 21:50Speaker 1: to be a guy that's not necessarily ill tempered. You know,
- 21:55Speaker 1: a a guy like Terroll Hatton. We've seen him over
- 21:58Speaker 1: the years. I mean, he was playing the art See
- 22:00Speaker 1: Canadian Open last week, which was a pretty gettable golf course,
- 22:03Speaker 1: and he's slamming clubs his person and he's getting all
- 22:07Speaker 1: thrown out of whack. I mean, if if that's getting
- 22:10Speaker 1: a guy like that, um that upset about the golf
- 22:13Speaker 1: course and the condition that set up and all that
- 22:15Speaker 1: kind of stuff, he's gonna have no chance in the
- 22:17Speaker 1: US Open. That's it. John rom is a he runs
- 22:20Speaker 1: pretty hot, he's pretty hot tempered type of dude. He
- 22:23Speaker 1: won last year. So I don't know if it necessarily
- 22:26Speaker 1: means just the patient guys still, but I'm looking at
- 22:28Speaker 1: guys who, you know what, You're gonna make bogies on
- 22:31Speaker 1: this golf course. You make a bogey, you walk off,
- 22:33Speaker 1: you go the next hole. You don't have to necessarily
- 22:35Speaker 1: take it with you to the next hole. So I'm
- 22:38Speaker 1: looking more personality, the things that won't show up in
- 22:41Speaker 1: a model. We're always looking at statistics and analytical models
- 22:45Speaker 1: these days, and look I I look at as much
- 22:47Speaker 1: as anybody out there, but I'm also looking at what
- 22:50Speaker 1: I know about a player and his personality, his reputation.
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- 24:35Speaker 1: want to go backwards. I don't want to start with
- 24:37Speaker 1: the outright. I don't want to start with a long shot.
- 24:40Speaker 1: Let's start with let's start with top tens. Who you're
- 24:44Speaker 1: seeing best odds, best value for top ten? Right now? Okay,
- 24:50Speaker 1: I mentioned Tony Finales named a minute ago. Tony figure
- 24:53Speaker 1: out won the Northern Trust last year back in August,
- 24:57Speaker 1: when sixteen starts without a top five. Afterwards looked like
- 25:01Speaker 1: it was Hey, now he's got momentum. We've been waiting
- 25:03Speaker 1: for Tony to become a superstar. Didn't happen afterwards, but
- 25:07Speaker 1: in his last five starts, he's got three top five finishes,
- 25:11Speaker 1: including a runner to Rory back Roy this past weekend.
- 25:15Speaker 1: I like Tony a lot for a US Open type
- 25:17Speaker 1: of setup. He's got the right attitude. Like I was
- 25:19Speaker 1: just saying, I think he's a good play Max Homa.
- 25:23Speaker 1: Here's a guy who hasn't played major as well in
- 25:25Speaker 1: the past, but he's he's literally getting better every single
- 25:28Speaker 1: week and you can tell the confidence on his face,
- 25:31Speaker 1: like this is a guy that's improving right before our eyes.
- 25:34Speaker 1: He won the Wells Fargo Championship about a month ago,
- 25:38Speaker 1: and I think there's a nice little correlation. That was
- 25:40Speaker 1: a tough Northeast golf course. I think you can look
- 25:44Speaker 1: at that one and say, I think some players from
- 25:46Speaker 1: that league aboard will show up on this one. Maximas
- 25:50Speaker 1: guy who was thirteen of the PGA Championship last month,
- 25:54Speaker 1: that's his best career major finish. I like. I like
- 25:56Speaker 1: him a few notches higher for a top ten this week,
- 25:59Speaker 1: and then Matt Fitzpatrick is a great player this week.
- 26:02Speaker 1: Matt Fitzpatrick won the two thousand thirteen US Amateur right
- 26:06Speaker 1: here at the country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts. Plays his
- 26:09Speaker 1: best golf on tougher golf courses when the winning score
- 26:13Speaker 1: is closer in relationship part. Oh, by the way, he's
- 26:16Speaker 1: number two. He was number one for most of the
- 26:18Speaker 1: season in total strokes gained on the PGA Tour. Rory
- 26:21Speaker 1: mclory just went past him this past weekend, but he's
- 26:24Speaker 1: a close second. Essentially, that measures who's playing the best golf.
- 26:27Speaker 1: I know Fitzpatrick hasn't won anything this season, but he's
- 26:30Speaker 1: been very, very good. Just to give people in some context, uh,
- 26:37Speaker 1: Matt Fitzpatrick to one outright about plus two ten two
- 26:44Speaker 1: to one for top ten, Tony Fine thirty five to one,
- 26:48Speaker 1: plus three twenty for top ten. Uh, Maxima to one
- 26:53Speaker 1: plus four twenty for top ten. Simon, I want you
- 26:58Speaker 1: to follow up in a second, but I do have
- 26:59Speaker 1: one re quire and everything I've read this week, everyone
- 27:03Speaker 1: keeps talking about Maxima. Why are maximas odds so long
- 27:07Speaker 1: if everyone seems to like him so much? Twitter? Yeah,
- 27:11Speaker 1: there are a lot of people. Look, a lot of
- 27:13Speaker 1: people are blinded by what's right in front of them.
- 27:16Speaker 1: A lot of people look at social media. Look, I'm
- 27:18Speaker 1: out here all the time. I'm talking to players, I'm
- 27:20Speaker 1: around the game. I see things that other people aren't
- 27:22Speaker 1: necessarily seeing. When you're sitting at home and you're trying
- 27:25Speaker 1: to figure out who's gonna win the golf tournament, you're like, hey,
- 27:27Speaker 1: let's go on Twitter and let's click around. You're like, oh,
- 27:29Speaker 1: there he is again. It's just it's front and center
- 27:32Speaker 1: in your mind. That's it. He is a very good player. Yes,
- 27:35Speaker 1: he's a very popular pick. Look, Fitzpatrick is gonna be
- 27:38Speaker 1: an extremely popular pick this week as well. But um
- 27:42Speaker 1: are these are the guys that I think should play well.
- 27:44Speaker 1: Their their games should suit this golf course this week.
- 27:48Speaker 1: I know Chad want to hold off on if I
- 27:49Speaker 1: gotta hear him long shots give it to you. I
- 27:51Speaker 1: know he wants to do favorite picks, but I wanted
- 27:53Speaker 1: to hear the long shots. I love the long shots,
- 27:55Speaker 1: all right, So what kind of long shots do you want?
- 27:57Speaker 1: We're talking like super random dudes for top forties, or
- 28:00Speaker 1: you're talking like, hey, guy with a big number that
- 28:03Speaker 1: has a chance of winning, big number, chance of winning always. Okay,
- 28:07Speaker 1: I would started off with I I told you guys,
- 28:09Speaker 1: I took a little spin around this golf course yesterday.
- 28:12Speaker 1: I'm trying to find like a great comparison golf course.
- 28:15Speaker 1: Excuse me to what this looks like. And the best
- 28:18Speaker 1: I can come up with is Marrying Marrying golf Club,
- 28:21Speaker 1: a famous course, Ben Hogan's one Iron. We all know
- 28:24Speaker 1: the story last l the US Open. The guy who
- 28:28Speaker 1: won that week just happened to shoot sixty a couple
- 28:31Speaker 1: of days ago. Probably should have shot a fifty seventy,
- 28:33Speaker 1: made three bogies and shot sixty in Canada, that's justin Rose.
- 28:37Speaker 1: The number has moved. I think you could have gotten
- 28:40Speaker 1: him before that sixty at right around eighty or maybe
- 28:43Speaker 1: even a hundred to one in some books. I think
- 28:46Speaker 1: roses down to to one in a lot of places
- 28:49Speaker 1: right now. I still like the number. I still think
- 28:51Speaker 1: there's some win equity there. He's playing some very good golf. Yeah,
- 28:54Speaker 1: he's not the same player in his prime as he
- 28:57Speaker 1: was at marrying uh back nine years ago. But I
- 29:00Speaker 1: do think you can go out and still win this
- 29:02Speaker 1: golf tournament. You know what's interesting You mentioned guys like speed,
- 29:05Speaker 1: If you mentioned guys like Justin Rose, I feel like
- 29:09Speaker 1: their moment came and went so quickly. You know, like
- 29:14Speaker 1: you just sort of think, Okay, he's in his prime
- 29:16Speaker 1: as a golfer. He should get a good six, seven, eight,
- 29:20Speaker 1: nine years in that prime, given sort of how your
- 29:23Speaker 1: game evolves, how sometimes you can get better as you
- 29:26Speaker 1: get older. Players are starting to play a little bit earlier. Um,
- 29:29Speaker 1: the way to extay in shape sort of fitnesses is better. Uh,
- 29:35Speaker 1: These guys like they came and went so quickly. Some yes,
- 29:40Speaker 1: some now. I mean, look, Justin Rose has been out
- 29:42Speaker 1: there for twenty years doing this and he's still a
- 29:44Speaker 1: very good player. I mean, it's still a guy who
- 29:46Speaker 1: on it on again. We can choose sixty in the
- 29:48Speaker 1: final round. I mean, he's still still good. He's not
- 29:50Speaker 1: gonna do it every single week. I think it's a
- 29:52Speaker 1: combination of Look, you do it for a long time,
- 29:55Speaker 1: you just get injured, you kind of lose maybe little
- 29:57Speaker 1: desire and motivation for especially non major championships. Some of
- 30:02Speaker 1: these guys, I mean, you mentioned Jordan speaking, he's still
- 30:04Speaker 1: very much in his prime. He's still one of the
- 30:05Speaker 1: top ten golfers in the world. I like him this
- 30:08Speaker 1: week as well. Then you look at look how many
- 30:11Speaker 1: good young players there are. I mean, we were just
- 30:13Speaker 1: talking a few years ago about Hey, Colin Morricala and
- 30:16Speaker 1: Victor Hoblin, they're gonna be really good. Those guys have
- 30:18Speaker 1: been top five players in the game, and now they're
- 30:21Speaker 1: getting pushed by the Wills alaturus Is and Cameron Young
- 30:25Speaker 1: and Mito Pereira and Davis Riley, and there's more and
- 30:28Speaker 1: more coming up on a regular basis. So it's really
- 30:31Speaker 1: hard to be a thirty eight, thirty nine, forty year
- 30:34Speaker 1: old golfer and trying to compete with these kids who
- 30:36Speaker 1: are twenty two and twenty three and feel like they're
- 30:40Speaker 1: they've got all the confidence in the world. It goes
- 30:42Speaker 1: back to the live golf situation where a lot of
- 30:44Speaker 1: these guys who are going over to live they're late
- 30:47Speaker 1: thirties early forties, and they see the writing on the wall,
- 30:49Speaker 1: and they're saying, Look, I'm in the back nine of
- 30:51Speaker 1: my career. Anyway, these kids are pushing me out. I
- 30:54Speaker 1: may never win anything of substance again. Why not take
- 30:58Speaker 1: my knocking figure payout and go play fifty four whole
- 31:01Speaker 1: events and not have to deal with these kids were
- 31:03Speaker 1: beating my butt every week. Jordan's to one match, Fitzpatrick
- 31:08Speaker 1: to one. I mentioned before, Kylin Morracylo Hugh just mentioned
- 31:13Speaker 1: to one, all right, we did top ten, We're gonna
- 31:17Speaker 1: do top five, and then Simon is going to ask
- 31:20Speaker 1: you for your outrights after I give everybody the right
- 31:25Speaker 1: context for who's got the shortest odds, right now, give
- 31:29Speaker 1: me your top five. Okay, so guys, the top five,
- 31:33Speaker 1: they're like, now giving up my my favorite outright play. Look,
- 31:36Speaker 1: a couple of them are very choky. I've got Justin
- 31:39Speaker 1: Thomas Mori McElroy. They're both right at the top of
- 31:41Speaker 1: the leaderboard. This past weekend, Wory wound up winning. Good
- 31:45Speaker 1: for golf, good for the PGA Tour. Everyone celebrates. Look,
- 31:48Speaker 1: Rory's playing some of the best golf that we've seen
- 31:50Speaker 1: him play in an awful long time. We talked about confidence,
- 31:52Speaker 1: we talk about let's look beyond the analytical models and
- 31:55Speaker 1: let's look at the guy and and and understand what
- 31:59Speaker 1: we're seeing from him. Rory is absolutely brimming with confidence
- 32:03Speaker 1: right now, both on and off the golf course. He
- 32:05Speaker 1: is a must watch golfer on the course. He's a
- 32:08Speaker 1: much watch, must watch interview. Off the golf course. He's
- 32:12Speaker 1: just he's fired at all cylinders and all facets of
- 32:15Speaker 1: what his job is right now. And so love Rory
- 32:18Speaker 1: this week. Love Justin Thomas. I was uh coming to
- 32:21Speaker 1: the course today with a couple of p g A
- 32:23Speaker 1: tour pros who um who were working on the radio
- 32:26Speaker 1: side US Open Championship radio with me this week, and
- 32:29Speaker 1: they were talking about Justin Thomas, who has every shot
- 32:32Speaker 1: in the bag. They said, no other player in the
- 32:33Speaker 1: world right now can flight the ball however they want,
- 32:37Speaker 1: Like Justin Thomas, he wants to hit a low cutty.
- 32:40Speaker 1: It's a low cut you want to say to high
- 32:41Speaker 1: draw high drug. You can do it from sixty yards,
- 32:44Speaker 1: you can do it from two and thirty yards. He's
- 32:46Speaker 1: got this variety of shots that's gonna work really well
- 32:49Speaker 1: for him. So again, those aren't names from off the board.
- 32:52Speaker 1: They haven't heard. Daniel Berger isn't getting enough love in
- 32:56Speaker 1: the marketplace yet this week. Daniel Berger is a guy
- 32:59Speaker 1: who often comes up to New England the summer. He's
- 33:01Speaker 1: sort of as de facto New England or his old
- 33:04Speaker 1: bro Matt Doyle's at the Msquamaket Club in Rhode Islands.
- 33:08Speaker 1: He goes up there and practices. He's playing ball at
- 33:10Speaker 1: the Travelers Championship, just a couple of miles or excuse me,
- 33:13Speaker 1: a couple of hours down the road in Connecticut. And
- 33:16Speaker 1: so I think it's gonna be a good week for Burger.
- 33:18Speaker 1: I might not have said that a few weeks ago
- 33:21Speaker 1: because he was dealing with some injuries, some inconsistencies. But
- 33:24Speaker 1: he finished the sheriff fifth place at the Memorial Tournament.
- 33:28Speaker 1: That's a really tough one. This is gonna be tough
- 33:30Speaker 1: as well. I think his game really suits his golf course.
- 33:33Speaker 1: Daniel Burger eight to one for a top five rory
- 33:38Speaker 1: plus two Justin Thomas plus two seventy five the Travelers
- 33:45Speaker 1: mere minutes from West Hartford. I'll be there in a
- 33:49Speaker 1: few days. I know. I'm looking forward to me all
- 33:52Speaker 1: right outright winners right now, Rory's attend to one and
- 33:56Speaker 1: dropping justin Thomas eleven and one, John Ram defending fourteen
- 34:02Speaker 1: to one, Scottie Scheffler fourteen to one, Cam Smith one,
- 34:08Speaker 1: Xander Schoffley one. Then Can't Lay, Patrick can't one. Simon
- 34:14Speaker 1: ask you a question, here's your favorite bet? Alright? So,
- 34:18Speaker 1: first of all, those names mentioned, Xander Shaffley and Patrick
- 34:21Speaker 1: Cantley at those numbers are very very intrigued. I think
- 34:24Speaker 1: it's gonna be a good week for both of them.
- 34:25Speaker 1: Can't Lay has played some of his worst golf in
- 34:28Speaker 1: the Majors over the last year or so. I think
- 34:30Speaker 1: people are gonna be scared off. I think that's kept
- 34:32Speaker 1: his number from being too short. I think it's a
- 34:35Speaker 1: really good number for him. He's better than where he's
- 34:38Speaker 1: being priced at. That said, you didn't mention my guy
- 34:41Speaker 1: who's a little bit lower down the board. Shane Lowry
- 34:44Speaker 1: is playing some of the best golf of his life
- 34:47Speaker 1: so far this year. Twelve starts in two, nothing worse
- 34:51Speaker 1: than thirty five, and really it's this all around game.
- 34:54Speaker 1: He eats driving it well. The irons are solid soft
- 34:57Speaker 1: fans around the greens. He makes some butts he's got
- 35:00Speaker 1: the right attitude for US Open. He was runner up
- 35:02Speaker 1: to Dustin Johnson at Oakmont back in and so I like,
- 35:07Speaker 1: but irishman in Boston, who would think that that can
- 35:10Speaker 1: ever go well? But I really do think Shane Lowry
- 35:13Speaker 1: can h can go and take this thing this week.
- 35:16Speaker 1: Even though he won the Open Championship a few years
- 35:18Speaker 1: ago at Royal part Wich, I've always thought he's probably
- 35:20Speaker 1: got a better chance of winning a US Open. I
- 35:22Speaker 1: think he's better US Open player than even the Open
- 35:25Speaker 1: Championship where he's from. And quite frankly, guys, maybe I'm
- 35:28Speaker 1: just rooting for it, not only for my own personal benefit,
- 35:31Speaker 1: but that's celebration for Shane Lowry here in Boston Sunday night.
- 35:36Speaker 1: That could be a pretty damn good party. Shane Lowry
- 35:39Speaker 1: currently thirty one to win the US Open. Jason Silbell,
- 35:43Speaker 1: you're on site at brook Line. You're doing radio for Serious.
- 35:47Speaker 1: You'll be reporting for Action Network. Listen to Jason on
- 35:50Speaker 1: the Links and Locks podcast. Watch the Gimme on our
- 35:54Speaker 1: Golf bet channel on Twitter. You can also check it
- 35:58Speaker 1: out various Action Network platforms. They're gonna do something for it.
- 36:04Speaker 1: John Middlecolf with the Volume It's true. Have a great time,
- 36:09Speaker 1: so thanks, guys, appreciate it. This has been the favorite
- 36:13Speaker 1: podcast from the Volume podcast Network for Simon Hunter, for
- 36:17Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, for Jason Sobel I am Chad Millman. Download
- 36:20Speaker 1: us from Apple podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts,
- 36:24Speaker 1: rate reviews, subscribe, and give us five stars. Say whatever
- 36:27Speaker 1: you wanted to feedback. Feedback is a gift. Until next time,
- 36:32Speaker 1: Love you,