Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL Week 6 Leverage Lane | October 11, 2025 | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS

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NFL Week 6 Leverage Lane | October 11, 2025 | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all system's going clear to the left.
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: Up what's up?
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Ember one? Tyler Tamberline here aka Totagg and Tambo back
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: for another edition of Leverage Lane. We've got week six
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: of the NFL DFS Week ahead. Got my guy Alex
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Blickle here with me as always to break it down.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: The Davante Adams cover shot this week on the thumbnail,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: so you know where we're going this week. We're gonna
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: be talking a lot about those rams obviously a big
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: part of this slate, but we're gonna do it like
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: always breakdown ownership. We're gonna go now narrative Street, but
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: leverage Lane, we're gonna walk our way down that street
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: and we're gonna be able to see the ownership in
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: a way you don't usually see it broken down. How
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: to leverage the common build, especially in single entry. That's
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: our focus here and then the light at the end
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: of the lane. And speaking of that, Alex. Last week
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: we had some pretty good ones again the deck with Ferguson,
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: with Pickens, with Hall with no Wilson, which ended up
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: again Wilson did find but it was like that was
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: a good setup for single entry. A lot of people
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: got there with that if Tolbert hadn't done anything, it
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: would have been even better week for folks out there.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: And then you had the big Jamar Chase call, and
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: what a game for him. Huge these wide receiver ones,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: they still find their way to come through. So what's
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: going on, man, how you doing? Yeah?
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: It was it was a really fun week last week.
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: I thought it was. We've kind of had this stretch
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: of weeks where they've all been high scoring lately. Like,
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: one of the things that I preach all the time
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: is I'm trying to win the low scoring slates, which
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: usually means that a bunch of chalk has to bust,
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: and we just haven't gotten those. So, like, you know,
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: one of the things that we've talked about, one of
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: the themes we've talked about is it's not just about being
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: right about who you play, it's also about being right
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: by who you choose not to play. Yeah, And so
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: like the Jamar Chase call, the Jake Brown call, that
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: was awesome for me last week, except those guys didn't
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: separate from the chuck that I didn't play, so it
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: didn't end up helping me in a big way. Hopefully
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: we can continue to hit on those contrarian upside calls
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: and get one of those low scoring weeks when that
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: really matters, and Wi vault us to the top of
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: lead for I'm so.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Glad you brought that up because I think the thing
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: was and obviously I know it wasn't ideal. I actually
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: didn't love it either, and I'm your partner in crime
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: here on this show. But it's like Browning with these
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: two if whatever. But I get where it came from
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: and why it made sense. It really did do a
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: pretty good job. Imagine if Browning played the first three
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: quarters actually I mean like he showed up basically in
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: the fourth. He did play, but get us some points
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: on the board, it would have been even better. But
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: to your point and credit a good, great call on
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: how it worked and how it would work. But if
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: it hadn't have been like a two hundred and fifty
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: tight point week, that type of stuff. Especially again as
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: people got to remember we're talking about single entry. It's
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: so funny too, Alex. It's like no one talks about
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: single entry. It's all mme. Then we talk about single entry, like,
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: but you're Browning Chase call win a tournament. It's like
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: we're explaining how it would work and in single entry
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: it can come through in a big way when that
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: stuff goes right and allows you to fit all of
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: the other stuff on top.
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: Go ahead, Yeah, I mean it matched any other stack
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: that you could have had, right Like, Browning ended up
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: getting to twenty three, Chase was at like thirty two
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: or something. Higgins got the touchdown that saved his game.
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: And in the afternoon only slate where I go. I
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: went into this slate thinking, Okay, I'm not gonna need
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: as high as a score to win that slate. I
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: flipped it around. I head golf with Montgomery, Jamison Williams,
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: a'man Rossaint Brown and Sam laforda with just Jamar Chase
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: is to bring back. Obviously, they're saying like this is
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: the high probability route of Detroit scores a million points.
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: I don't need Cincinnati to do as much as I
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: do when I have the actual Browning stack, but both
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: has ended up super viable. The thing that killed me
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: from that game actually was Jamison Williams not showing up
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: at forty nine hundred dollars, which I thought was kind
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: of shocking to me. I loved that spot and I'm
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: very okay with being wrong about that spot, but I
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: think we can kind of attack that same Cincinnati team
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: this week in maybe a more informed way based on
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: that and some of their other kind of deeper data,
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: which I think is becoming stronger and stronger at this
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: point in the season.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the Jameson Williams play. The best buy pricing sold
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: us man. We got the TV for just letder five
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: hundred bucks. He was forty nine hundred instead of five thousand.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: We bring him in, we bring him home and he
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: breaks down on us. Not a good week for him,
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: but certainly at the price you're never going to complain
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: about that. We know what the boombust capability is, and
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: again people have to remember that the pricing matters. It
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: makes stuff work in your lineups to be able to
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: fit other things. And this week Alex a bit different.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: We're going to go through it here in a second
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: of the ownership and just do a quick run through
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: by position the fast stuff. But I will say, like
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: the CMC Puka stuff, these guys are back on the slate.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: More interesting to me about CMC because there's other running
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: backs and it's a ten gamer. Like last week, a
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: lot of those mid range running backs. So what's your
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: first sort of overview when it comes to ownership across
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the board?
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there are two things we really want
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: to keep in mind this week. The first being most
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: of the field is going to play a ram in something.
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: We have over thirty percent ownership right now on Kien Williams,
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: over thirty percent on Puka. I think both of those
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: guys are capable of steaming as high as like fifty percent,
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: but I don't think they will both steam. I think
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: we're going to see a preference between one of the two.
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: If you had to ask, if I had to say
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: right now, I'd say it's probably Kyron just from a
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: price prohibitive standpoint on Pooka Nakua. And honestly, like I
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: think you know, I watched your show with Pat and
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: I think did you guys were kind of all over
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: that the whole time. It's like, man, it's the line
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: easier Bill Linus, we go Kyron and Puka. So I
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: think he could be the one that really steams, and
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: then we'll see some ownership on Dvonte Adams too. But
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: like I think something as high as sixty percent of
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: lineups we're going to be using at least one RAM,
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  Speaker 3: So that's kind of the first thing you want to
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: keep in mind. And the second thing is we do
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: have a lot of running back choppins. Again, I don't
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: think pricing has totally caught up to this, but you know,
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: we have rick o'dowdell at like thirty five percent in
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: single entries. We have Monte Williams at thirty percent, we
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: have Kyrien Williams at thirty percent, so you know there
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: are there are going to be a lot of very
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: popular running backs. In fact, we have six guys projected
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: over twenty percent, Rashad White, Josh Shacobs, Christian McCaffrey being
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: the other guys kind of there. And one thing you'll
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: notice there is that spans eighty four hundred dollars to
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: fifty eight hundred dollars, so we don't have the you know,
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: super cheap options that we had last week, but it's
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: still pretty wide range. That means that the field is
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: going to be able to build different styles of lineups
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: where you know, some are paying up at running backs,
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  Speaker 3: some are paying up a receiver, some are paying up
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: a tight end. And so we don't have quite as
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: like of a laser focused chalk build as we've had
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: in some other weeks, like we did way back in
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: Week one. So leveraging the chalk build is a little
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: bit harder this week just because there isn't necessarily a
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: chalk build in our set.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I want to talk about this too, because it
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: came up on the show yesterday that you mentioned and uh,
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: I think it's October, what is it. It's somewhere at
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: the end of the month. But anyway, somebody said this,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: and this has been so what people don't know. Again,
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: it's always a product of the slate too, So we'll
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: bring this up in the early stage of like ownership,
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: and then we're going to get to the common build.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: And I definitely don't think this is the common build
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: at all, but I'll say as the season goes on,
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: and we're already seeing it this week, like Pooka, the
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: prices go up, which means the pricing gets tighter. They
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: don't seem to lift the tight end pricing. And if
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: we don't end up ever with like a running back,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: people never feel as good about like the super cheapy
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: wide receivers sometimes but even sometimes like a Jalen Cocher
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: this week, if he does play, he's not even three
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: k He's forty two hundred. So's that's an example where
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: people when they have the cheap running back like Doubtell
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: last week, that's why it's such a good opportunity. No
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: one knows he's getting two hundred and ten yards or
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: whatever the heck it is with the touchdowns. It's like,
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: this is kind of the setup of just the way
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: the slate works. But tight end, double tight end happens
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: when there's the pricing setup to make that work. The
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: thing I'm saying is even last week, people were joking
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: that it was National tight end Week and it still
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: wasn't required. There was just so many running backs and
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: so many ways to get there. Do you have any
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: thoughts early on this show just around that, because we'll
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: get to it soon when we get to the builds.
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: Anyway, let me start with this. Do you have a
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: guess on what percentage of lineups last week, and let's
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: just use the two hundred dollars single entry as an example.
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: What percentage of lineups do you think used double tight
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: end last week?
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Five to seven one percent? There you go, So it's
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: so little, Yeah.
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: I think there are a couple things there. Number one,
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: Like tight ends did do quite well last week. So
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: when we when we see the fact that you know, oh,
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: I looked at the you know, the the top ten
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: finishing lineups, and none of them had double tight end,
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: it doesn't mean that double tight end wouldn't have worked.
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: It tells us more that double tight end really wasn't used.
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: If no one's using double tight end, it's obviously impossible
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: for a double tight end lineup to come at the top.
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: Now it was one percent on zero percent, so it
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: still was possible. But I think you get the point there. Yeah,
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: I think it's okay. What I always look at is
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: if you are using double tight end, you are using
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: both of them, both tight ends as a pivot off
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: the guys in that range who are running back to
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: wide receivers. Now, in the past few years, I think
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: this has been a major, major mistake because when you
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: have looked at the guys in those price ranges. Number one,
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: it's been clear that the tight ends have not projected better.
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: Like maybe you could argue they projected in line with
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: some of those other guys, but then from a ceiling perspective,
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: they were way behind, and I'll give you an example here. So,
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: like in our projections over at FTN this week, let's
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: look at Jake Ferguson. Jake Ferguson's going to be one
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: of the more popular tight ends this week. We have
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: him at a twelve point six point projection pretty much
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: the exact same. Actually it is the exact same as
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: Chris Olave twelve point six. It's a little bit behind
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: Michael Pittman at fourteen point four or Jalen Warren at
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: twelve point nine or Marvin Harrison at twelve point seven.
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: So you're not getting a projection advantage. And then let's
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: look over at our ceiling projections thirty point two for
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: Chris Olave, thirty one for Marvin Harrison, twenty seven for
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: Jake Ferguson. So you're sacrificing too much there. When I'm
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: playing a tight end, I'm trying to win the position.
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: I want my tight end to separate from the other
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: tight ends. But if he does that, you don't want
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: a second tight end. So you're almost like hurting your
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: own tight end play if you get that tight end
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: play right, if you play a second tight end, because
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: as the one off position like quarterback, you're really kind
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: of sacrificing an opportunity to separate within that position from
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: the rest of the field if you use a second Yeah.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: And I don't disagree with any of this like people
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: take it so seriously or personal in the chat. When
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: we talk about this stuff, it's to help get better
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: and learn at the game. And you're right, it is
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: a different slate altogether. And this is the whole point
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: about leverage. Lane play in your lane, stay in your lane,
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: whatever you want to do. If that's how you see it,
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: run it. My take is actually completely different. The validity
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: to everything Alex just said is fact, and it's if
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: only one percent do it. There was tons of lineups
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: that you could have seen on paper have two tight
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: ends last week. Remember it's a product of the rest
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: of the slate and also what they do. All I'm
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: saying is we have like seven to ten running backs
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: again this week and last week there was just no
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: way it was happening once Dawdell gets there. That's already
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: comparison to the price. And as you said last week,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: a great point. I got a lot of good feedback
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: on this one too in the DMS and side notes
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: that people said, I loved his point about everything's a flex,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: like it's all flex when you're running it through, and
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: that's the whole point. That kills the opportunity for your
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: flex to be something different when you already have a
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: forty three hundred dollars that covers off the value wide receivers,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: that covers off the second tight ends. It's all facts,
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: it's all a product of the slate. If Dabdell doesn't
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: have the big game, maybe that changes things, but again,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: not as many people built for it. If it's your lane,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: stick to it. This slate is one hundred percent different
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: than last week. And there's a couple different ways. We're
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: gonna get to that when we talk about leveraging it
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: and doing different things. But the comparisons that are being
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: made of like Ridley and even in yours olave all
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: that no one's playing them anyway like that. It's like
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: they're getting some ownership. But it's not like, let's see,
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: probably it's going to.
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: Be pretty popular. Really won't be.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: But but let's gets to fifteen to twenty, it's like
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: it's that's popular for sure. I'm just saying that's not
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: the auto decision that everybody has in their lineup, where
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: you have to just be like, well, if everyone's going
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: alab no, everyone is not. For every one hundred people
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: in a room, eighty of them to eighty five of
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: them are stepping out and letting you stay in the
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: olave room, that's eighty five to fifteen, and then extrapolate
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: it up to two hundred thousand. In some of these
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: tournaments we're talking more single injury, but just noting that
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: so people see it across all angles. It doesn't mean
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: it's right, it's just this is the type of thoughts
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: you have to have going into this stuff.
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: So a couple of the last thing I want to
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: say on this is, uh, you know, he brought up
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: like Calvin Ridley for one thing, like, yeah, I'm in agreement.
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: I don't want to play Calvin Fordy either. He also
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: doesn't project as well as other guys there as that
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: tight end. But if you are going to go double
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: tight end, I think that's actually like a very good point.
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: And he mentioned Tucker Craft on a forty seven hundred. Okay,
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: let's look at who's around Craft at forty seven hundred.
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: Now it's Ridley or Trey Tucker or Rashi chi Heat
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: or Jerry Judy like Craft actually does project better than
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: those guys. So if you're going to go double tight end,
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: you want it to be two really cheap guys, because
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: even if you did like Tucker Craft and then Trey
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: McBride in the flex, or even if it was Trade
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: McBride at tight end and then Tucker Craft in the flex,
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: it'sid same conversation, right, they're both in the flex for
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: you in reality, because you could have taken either of
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: them out to put in that receiver. So if you're
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: going to go double tight end, you want to make
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: sure that neither of those tight ends are competing with
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: better projected or better ceiling wide receivers and running backs.
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: And the only way you can do that is if
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: you go really cheap. So like Tucker Craft is probably
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: the most expensive tight end that could be in a
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: viable double tight end.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: And I'll add one last point. Then we're going to
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: do a quick run through the position by position just
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: to say like the points that then will use that
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: to build. Going to this segment two of talking about
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: the common build, but just to note projections love this
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: and so to optimizers because optimizer inputs are your outputs.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: I've stressed this all season long. So when you were
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: running Optimizer, you actually will see a lot more to
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: tight end lineups. But that's because it's auto assumption on
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: median projections of guys like Pooka CMC. It just says
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: I got to get you all those guys to get
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: the best projected points. If you see other paths of
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: guys like CMC maybe not getting there in this matchup,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: or the way your lineup looks better without it, that's
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: where you may not need that, and then that leads
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: to different builds on top of that. So I think
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: that's really good to talk about. I'm glad you brought
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: up the point, and I think that's good for everybody
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: to hear. All right, you'll think that last.
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: By the way, if you optimize towards the ceiling instead
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: of the medium projection like in our optimizer, you can
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: choose what blend you have between the medium projection and
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: the ceiling projection, and the more ceiling you select, the
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: less double tight end. You'll see.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Yes, yep, great points all around. That why it's a
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: good conversation. I mean, that's what this is all about.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Just talking about it and then how you can apply it,
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: and like you said, to your point too, if it's
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: going to be one percent in the two hundred dollars
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: single entry or the we love the one hundred dollars
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: single entry, the hundred kop top. Everybody loves that. It's
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: like you could play in it. If you're watching this,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: you're probably more of a diehard DFS fan enough to
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: be able to put one hundred bucks in that. You're
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: probably thinking about that at least somewhat each week. This
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: is more about that, and it may not be required,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: but it would be a way to get different if
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: that's your lane real quick, just to help get us
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: to this and anything you see different in your stuff,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: because I know you track more steam and things. I
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: love the Williams call actually the setup there. We'll talk
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: about more with the one ram and all that. But
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing early right now, Drake may Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing Dowdell, Javonte Williams, Rashad White, Williams, who you
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: talked about CMC actually looks like he's gonna be more
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: popular than Jonathan Taylor. Of course, we know Puka is
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: easily affordable still, I mean it's expensive, but I should
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: easily affordable, easy to get into your bills. Again, it's
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: not about the one player, it's about the entire lineup.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: He's able to get in there. We'll talk a ton
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: on that today. Of course, people can still get to
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: jsn Egbuka with all the injuries over there, Ted Pickens,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: maybe we see tes Johnson like, we'll have to see
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: what we see there. And then you talked about a
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: tight end as much as there's there's more like spread
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: out there. Everybody's twelve to fifteen, and we'll see how
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: it all steams up. But like Craft McBride, Warren Ferguson,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe even Meyer tongs Long some of the
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: cheapies there. So what are you seeing right now? If
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: we're gonna move to segment number two, Alex and talk
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: about sort of the you know, how to leverage the
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: common build, the player combinations, the game stacks, we'll get
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: to all that stuff in a bit and then our
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: leverage lane at the end. What are you seeing more
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: for the common build right now?
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: So I think one of the one of the differences
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: that I have from what you just said is at
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: wide receiver. I think there's gonna be like a big
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: tier break in ownership drop from number one Puka to
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: like the second tier, which I think is going to
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: be like a lave An and maybe Ted McMillan, and
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: then another drop before you get to Digs Pittman, maybe
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: Pickens in that group, and then another tier drop before
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: you get to Abuka. So I think the like almost
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: the story with the pricing is that both at running
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: back and at wide receiver, it's like this seven thousand
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: dollars range is kind of no man's land, if you will,
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: where there are so many good plays in the upper
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: fives and in the six ks that it's almost like
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: people are saying, all right, if I'm going up above
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: that tier where I have all these good options, I
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: may as well go all the way to McCaffrey to
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor to Puka Nakua, or I'm just gonna stay
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: down in that six k range. And so I think
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: JSM we have it like twenty two percent. I think
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: he's kind of the only guy in the sevens along
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: with Josh Jacobs actually at seven point three that is
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: going to get a decent amount. And I actually think
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: that both of those guys would have been a lot
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: more popular if not for the fact that we have
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: this like loaded six K range at both positions where
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: people can just choose to go a more balanced and
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: almost like a less aggressive line of building style.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I think one thing too is the chat's talking
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: a ton about this already, like again going to the
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: common build, like how are you seeing the quarterback set
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: up on your side? Because the conversation around like Baker
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: being leveraged. There's gonna be different ways to leverage Baker.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: But I think because of I still have big Buka
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: again a little bit higher, but we'll see how it
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: plays out. But what I see also is if Ted
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: Johnson gets steamed up any or things like that, people
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: start to find a way to just make it all work.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: They saw what he did last week. It's affordable, you
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: can still fit all the six k running backs in,
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: and then people feel like if they don't like again,
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: way more people will have a shad White. Don't get
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: me wrong here, but I'm saying and so I don't
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: think Baker makes the common build, But I'm just saying
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: in talking about that from the other side, I also
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: don't know if Baker to Igbuka with tes is like
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: the starting point of completely different versus maybe putting white
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: into those builds or doing something differently that way, and
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: anything you're seeing on that angle of things at the
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: quarterback position with Baker and others.
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: Last week we had fields over thirty percent owned in
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: single entries. That's exactly where he came in. We don't
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: have anything close to that this week. May is the
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: top of our single entry ownership projections at twelve point
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: three percent. We have let's say, one, two, three, four, five, six,
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: seventy eight, nine, ten, ten guys projected over five point
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: zero percent. So to me like it, the quarterback ownership
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: almost doesn't even matter this week. The stacking partners are
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: where you're going to separate. The stacking partners where you
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: can either get different or you can find a lot
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: of chalk, like, for example, Matt Stafford. If you use
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: the Stafford and Puka stack, like Stafford's four and a
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: half percent. But even if they smash, that doesn't necessarily
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: mean Stafford's going to separate from the quarterback. So I
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: almost think we want to just like completely ignore quarterback
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: ownership this week and just focus on the on the
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: ownership of your stack partners? How much correlation are you
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: getting things like that, and what is the chance that
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: your game environment as a whole really takes off. If
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: if you have a quarterback at eight percent verse twelve percent,
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: that doesn't really make a meaningful difference in my mind.
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: It matters if you're the receiver that go it was
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: off along with your quarterback is eight percent or is
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: he twenty five percent. That's what's really going to make
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: the difference between whether your stack is separated.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: So what do you see right now as the common
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: build if you're looking at it right now on your
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: end and with the conversation that we always have around
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: like the steam and people coming up, and then we'll
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: get to the combinations. I know people love that. Another
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: great call with it last week and it ended up
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: being like last week, one of the common ones was
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: Hall Ferguson, and if you look at the Milli maker,
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: it was Fields Hall Ferguson. But a lot of people
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: that did that got to Wilson, got to other stuff
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: and you didn't necessarily need that. There was other ways
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: to get there, or you could do Darnald with some
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: stuff on the on a different game. What are you
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: you seeing as the common build right now or like
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: the starting core of what people are hitting with.
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: It's weird, like I almost think there there isn't one.
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: In terms of the stacks, I think that the common
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: build is going to be You're probably going to see
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: one pay up, whether that pay up is all the
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: way to Pooka or CMC or to Jacobs or JSN.
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: I think we'll see one maybe max of like two
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: of those spend ups. But then we're going to see
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: a lot a lot of players in the upper five
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: k range load to mid six k range. You have
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: a group of that, by the way, at both running
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: back and wide receivers. I mentioned so like Rashad White,
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: Javonte Williams, Kyron Williams at the receiver position, Michael Pittman,
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: Chris Lave. So you know, I think it's mostly going
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: to be like a balanced build across with one or
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: two payups and whatever stack fits in there. And then
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: I also think this might be a week what we
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: see fewer double stacks, just because there are a handful
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: of kind of pretty good one off wide receivers. We
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: also saw last week seventy nine percent of people use
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: their running back in the flex, which also means that's
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: a that's you know, one fewer wide receiver position that
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: people can use in the flex, which means we see
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: fewer double stacks because people are hesitant to use all
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: of their wide receiver spots in you know, from the
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: same game. It's something that you know, you've been talking
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: for years about on pat show, like you actually liked
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: doing that in part because you know it's a unique
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: way to build. So yeah, I think if so, like
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: maybe one takeaway from that is if we are thinking
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: about how to leverage the common build, find a double stack,
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: I can even find some triple stacks, like if you
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: want to go with Herbert and all three of his receivers,
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: because that type of thing that going all in on
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: one game environment might be a little bit less likely
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: this week than what we have seen in the past.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's another good way to get different.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: One thing you brought up there that I really like
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: is part of the common I think the common build
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: this week, which were about to go there in a
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: second of other angles and combinations is everybody always thinks
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: the combinations have to be a secondary stack in the
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: same game of like a riot everyone always assumes it's
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: running back, wide receiver, running back, tight end or something
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: like that from the same game, when in reality, this week,
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: it's like running backs are the common Like everyone's using
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: the same running backs and we know that gets them
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: to certain other things. But I'm just saying you nailed
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: the point there. It's like people like Drake May, but
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: they're gonna like them with digs and then they're not
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: gonna try and figure it out further. People like Bryce Young,
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: but they like them with tet and they're not gonna
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: necessarily we're talking single lantry again. Obviously, everyth's like they're
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: gonna play with this guy that guy. Of course, Sarah,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: we're talking sing lantry though, like a lot of people
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: are gonna stop and say, I feel good there, Do
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: I need a run back or not? We'll see and
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: then let me just fill in the doubtles, the Rashad Whites,
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera, and you keep it going. So
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: I think that is what we see even like last week,
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: and again you did not that you needed other stuff,
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: but you saw way more people that had like Darnald
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: JSN and didn't try and figure out Cup and Barner
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: and all these other things where Barner ended up having
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: two touchdown but it's like that's not what was really needed.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: And again it would have been nice. It's not that
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: you couldn't have got there with it, but nobody had it,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: so it wasn't needed. And like you talked about earlier
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: with the one percent thing, and then also people are
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: more comfortable just stopping at that. Even at BUKA. I
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: know people are seeing like I said with Teses Johnson,
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: with you know, other people like Shepherd or Aught or
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: whatever they do. Yes, they make more sense when you're
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: stacking them. But in like a single entry, I think
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: you just see if people are leveraging white or they
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: may play both together. I think it's way more of
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: like a Baker Agbuca get. I don't need to play
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: white anymore. I can play Doubt, or I can play
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: Jacobs whoever else. That looks like. So, what do you
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: see as some of the combinations this week outside of
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: it that just you're gonna know are gonna be more common?
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: And again this is we don't have the real numbers,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: like we tell everybody until Monday, but we can kind
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: of get a good idea of it via everything we've
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: looked at so far leading up to the spot in
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: the lane.
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's funny because most of the time I start
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: this conversation with like, Okay, well, obviously all we have
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: to do is go to the chalkiest game. Except the
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: chalkiest game people don't want to use the Ravens as
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: a bringback, So I don't think it's gonna be that game.
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: I think Carolina and Dallas is probably the number one
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: game we have to watch out for in this regard.
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: So I wouldn't use Dawdle with Ferguson. I wouldn't use
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: Daddle with Pickens. I wouldn't use Pickens with Tet or
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: Ferguson with Tet. Even last week, like Hall and Ferguson
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: ended up together in a lot of the winning lineups.
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: But think about what you could have done otherwise there
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: if you were using Ferguson like he was the key,
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: and then Hall was just in there because he did
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: pretty well and was in so many of those Fergerson lineup.
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: So it's the same idea, right, Like there's this selection
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: bias who shows up in the winning lineup? Well, it's
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: usually like who are the most popular guys? Because there
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: are more chances for that lineup or for that combination
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: to have the right combination of other players. Breece Hall
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: wasn't in the in the winning lineup because he smashed
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: so much. He was in the winning lineup because he
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: was surrounded by the players you needed to have. So
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: if you own had Ferguson, like you got what you
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: wanted from that game. Ferguson and the Dallas offense was
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: a little bit more conservative because they had a lead.
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: They slowed the game down. Ferguson got there on reception
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: volume more than anything else, so you didn't need Breeze
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: Hall on the way back. Similar idea here, you could
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: use dat All on the way back from Ferguson. I
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: don't think they're very correlated, if at all, but you
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: don't need to do that. If you have Ferguson, you're
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: almost saying, I hope that Dallas gets ahead. They get
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: to play a conservative style. They don't have to push
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: the ball downfield. Man, think about how close we were
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: to that Giant or that Jets game last week. Just
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: totally fit, not just the garbage time stuff for Garrett
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: Wilson and Justin Fields, but also it was one deep
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: play for pickets. If you take that play away from him,
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: he also fails. And so like, we were so damn
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: close from having just this smash from Ferguson and nobody
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: else in that game doing even remotely well. You know,
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: Hall might have still done one hundred yard bonus and
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: gotten to twenty, but we were really close to just
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: Ferguson being the guy you needed. And I think we
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: can do the same sort of thing this week in
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: this Carolina Dallas game. By all means, you can pick
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: your favorite one off from the game. But unless you're
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: full stacking it with a Dack double and bring back
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: from Carolina, or a Bryce double and maybe even like
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: two bringbacks from the Cowboys, I think you really don't
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: want to go with those mini stacks because there are
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: going to be enough game stacks that those are going
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: to pass you if you have a mini stack, unless
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: you get really lucky in the right combination like you
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: could have done last week with Ferguson.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, one of the most interesting things the last week too, is,
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: like we talk about it all the time, this is
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: the segment where we talk about flipping the build. Javonte
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: Williams and Mason Taylor crushed for like one twentieth of
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: the ownership of the other side of that thing. If
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: you really think about it, so and again it's it
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: didn't beat it, or whatever the way you want to
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: look at it. But I'm saying it's like, that's the
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: whole point of why we look for these types of things.
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: And I have a question for you too while we're
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: on this segment, because I think there's a lot of
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: I think it's showing right now in like smaller field
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: stuff too. Even you could you hear people talking about
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: Javonte Williams and Doubtell do you think that's because people
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: are playing them both together? And who do you think
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: actually comes in higher on in the single entry stuff
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: that we're talking about here, doubt all.
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: I think I think Dabdle's going to be the more
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: popular one. And I think this is something that I
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: look at every single week. The combinatorial ownership of running
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: backs playing against each other used to be a lot
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: lower than what you'd expect to give in their individual ownerships.
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: So people were very clearly saying, I don't want to
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: use two running backs from the same game. We are
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: not seeing a boost in combinatorial ownership from game stacking
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: with two running backs, but we're also no longer seeing that,
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: you know, avoidance of it. So I think it's kind
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: of neutral, which means if you like them both, you
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: don't necessarily need to think that they're positive positively correlated
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: to play them both. Like you can just think, hey,
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: they're both really good plays. I'm going to play them both.
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: But you're also probably not getting that correlation boost that
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: you would get from, you know, two receivers that may
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: or may not be counteracted by the extra ownership. So
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: I don't have an issue with it. It's also not
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: something that I am purposely targeting and trying to do
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: more of. One other combination that I think is really
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: really worth avoiding is Chris o'lavey and Steph Diggs. Both
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: of these guys are going to be around twenty percent ownership.
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: We actually, by the way, have Olave up at twenty
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: three point six percent. I think that could come down,
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: especially if someone like McMillan or Diggs or Smith and
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: Jakebens up steaming up. But both of those guys, Olave
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: and Diggs are going to be around twenty percent. They're
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: also both like the by far like the most attractive
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: guy in there on their teams to play. So anyone
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: who wants a piece of that game is probably going
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: Olave and Digs and both of these guys, like they're
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: not necessarily big play guys, they're going to get there
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: with receptions in yards, so they're off on the field.
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: The other offense is not. I think these guys might
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: even be inversely correlated, but they're going to be played
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: together as if they're really positively correlated. So that is
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: definitely a combination to avoid.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: It's also it goes I was gonna bring this up,
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: and that's a perfect example of this. So though, so Banking,
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: who's been great in the chat today. So with my builds,
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: I'm literally able to pay up for any quarterback new ones.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: It was an awesome dude over at ship Nation. He's
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: gonna be joining us on the takedown breakdown Monday, October twentieth.
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: He said, I would start with it your quarterback and
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: build out, I think actually on this slate, and that's
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: typically what everybody does. I'm not saying I won't. That's
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: you know how I usually start. It's kind of like
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: a common thing just to you get your stacks and
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: then you build out. But when people are going with
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: more of these one offs, I think there is like
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: in that, like a Igbuca with Baker and that's it,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: or you just gave a great one was Digs. The
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: thing about Digs and Olave is that's the main stuff
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: is coming from that, and then it just be like, well,
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: I'll go with the safety of Olave. He's you know,
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: he's Shaheed's risky. I know he's the big play guy,
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: but he's so he's almost as expensive as Olave. Olave
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: is safer. People do that, and so realistically, a guy
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: like Shaheed would be probably more likely to speed it
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: up up and fire these guys up back and forth.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: But it could be like last week we almost saw
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: Shaheed and Slayton. It could be more of something like that,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: like a Booty and Shaheed and everyone's like, oh, I
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: was in the right place on the wrong two guys,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: and you get a bunch more money. And I'll talk
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: more on that in a second when we go to
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: the next portion of this. But I think it's fine
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: if you go like Binking does this week, and you
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: build out your lineup of kind of what you want
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: to see happen and then start to see there is
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: so many quarterbacks that could fit that build, and then
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: maybe you start to see additional pivots or additional ways
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: where you're not really going crazy, you're just making a
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: different variation of it that still makes a ton of sense.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: So I actually don't hate that on this slate, especially
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: for single entry like we're talking about. So the second
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: thing I want to note with that, if you have
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: more on that, by all means, go ahead, But I
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: would say the second thing I want to note is
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: it feels like a lot of people see and understand
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: that the common build is three mid tier running backs,
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: like we get it right, it's even if you count
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Jacob's in it, but it's the six k guys and
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: the fifty eight hundred dollars guys. It's Williams, Williams, Doubtell
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: White and then yes, people might get to JT or
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: CMC one or the other as well as but most
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: of those people want to spend that money on Puka.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: So there's that. But the other like, there's so many
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: ways to leverage within that that I want to talk
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: about quick, and one of them is just the expensive
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: running backs like the CMC or the JT. Like JT
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: is in a similar spot and he just continues to crush.
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: So the props are there, the numbers are there. Everything
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: looks good. Yet it looks still to me Alex like
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: if people go to a more expensive running back, it's
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: likely to be CMC because he's only one hundred bucks
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: more and they think about the injuries and et cetera,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: et cetera. The second part is you can cut in
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: to these running backs pretty quick. Here's an interesting one.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: I loved your call earlier on Williams for the Rams.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: Agree with you fully because the Puka lineups look tricky
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: at times. There's a chance we see even Puka's single
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: entry ownership come down just a little bit as Williams
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: ownership goes up. Mostly won't want to play them together.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: It's the exact same matchup. It's, you know, people don't
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: want the full Stafford stack, and I get it because
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: it's who's gonna push it from the Ravens side with
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: no Lamar and with everything they've got going on. Last week,
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: the Houston defense was the chalk against Cooper rush. The
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: Rams defense because of pricing and where they sit and
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: just people ignoring it all together. There's already the Packers there,
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: there's already the Colts there, and I get all that,
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: but why wouldn't you just cut into Williams with the
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: Rams d in the exact same spot against the same
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: quarterback that everybody wanted to play against last week and
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: it worked out. So there's alternative methods and things that
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: you can do, but with the current running back common
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: build as well as moving off the current running back
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: common build. And I think that's more of a discussion too,
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: as we move into game stacks and whatnot in a second.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: But I'll let you take it from there.
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with that. I also think if if
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: I were enemy ing, I would have at least one line,
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: probably only would be one out of one point fifty,
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: but it would be the Rams defense and Blake Korum
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: instead of Kyrien with the hope that you know, if
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: the Rams score multiple defensive touchdowns and they're up big late,
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: Kyen Williams is not gonna be on the field. Blake
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: Korum will and maybe you get, you know, a late
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: sixty yard touchdown one from Coreum. He ends up with
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: one hundred yard bonus because he got to play almost
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: all the fourth quarter, So like, you know, there's there's
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: a path for that sort of thing. But more to
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: your point, there is if the Rams defense does really
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: well this Rams offense. Number one, they're not on the
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: field this much. Number two, they don't have to do
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: a damn thing in the second half. So s yeah,
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: I think that that's a that's a really good call
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: and potentially a way that you can leverage this game.
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: There's also another one that's going to be my leverage plane.
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: It's almost like not even worth keeping a secret. It's
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: so obvious, especially with our cover guy. But but yeah,
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: I agree with all of that, and.
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: Let's let's wait and talk about the game stacks first,
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: because we always talk about how to play with what
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: we know. And again, the chat's been fired up today.
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: It's a lot of good like little comments and players
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: people like I think Banking's the MVP of the chat
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: that says you know things about CMC and then you
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: know it says, so just throw salary and ownership ab
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: out the window when picking RB Comos, No, that's not
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: what we're saying at all. And again, like says, maybe
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: it's more contouts demend at running back Chock as you've
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: seen every week almost this season is definitely the best
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: shock it's most likely to hit at any given time.
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: It's pretty much outside of the Puka most obvious week ever,
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: like six points ahead in projections, Like then that's yeah,
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: figure that out for sure. Outside of that, running back
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: Chok does smash year over year, like this is a
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: sample we have now that it's typically much better. But
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: it's not saying That's what my point was just currently
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: of saying, like, even if you can't move away from
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: those four common options from fifty eight hundred to sixty
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: four hundred with Javonte down to doubtell, just look, there's
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: ways to get different with them. You can already stack
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: different stacks. We're about to get to game stacks. I
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: think there's a couple that stand out to me in
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: a minute that aren't even part of my leverage lane.
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: And then also there's defenses that can cut into them,
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: like the week that George we keep bringing this up,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: but Jordan Mason was choking. Everyone's like, oh, I'm just
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: gonna fade that loser. It's like you could have just
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: played his defense with them at four percent ownership and
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: add thirty more points to the clearly great running back play.
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: So that's what I always look at, Alex and just
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: it's again, it's not who you play, it's how you
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: play them. It's the full lineup. It's not just the
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: setup of this. You know, one option or one combo
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: or one player, but you do need to be thinking
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: about that stuff as you're building out. What else do
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: you got there? And then if not, let's get into
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: some of these game stacks that we can talk about.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: And if you want to talk more about the rams,
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: we can do that too. I know you've got something
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: on that at the.
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: End, though, Yeah, I've got something actually pretty interesting here
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: in the data. This is this is another thing that
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: I've tracked looking at running back chalk versus wide receiver
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: chalk and how they perform. I agree completely. When you
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: were looking at like two twenty percent guys and ones
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: of running back ones receiver, the twenty percent running back
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: is more like likely to succeed. However, there's a weird
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: phenomenon where when you get to like what I call
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: mega chalk wide receivers, and it's it's a little bit
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: arbitrary with the cutoff there is sometimes they use thirty
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: percent but it's also about like how much they're separating
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: from the next most popular receiver, so on and so forth.
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: Mega chalk wide receivers are actually more likely to succeed
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: than mega chalk running backs. We see them a lot
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: less often, so it's you know it. Pokah is almost
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: like a perfect example of this from a few weeks
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: ago when he got the thirty nine. It's like, when
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: a wide receiver is that popular, there's a reason for it.
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: It's a lot harder for a wide receiver to get
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: that popular because people already know that, typically speaking, running back,
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: chalk is more likely to succeed. Now, the other caveat
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: to this is the NFL is changing. It's always changing,
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: and this year we're seeing more and more teams become
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: more run heavy. Something like twenty five of the thirty
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: two teams have a pass rate under expectation, depending on
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: your own definition of what the expectation is in comparison
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: to what we've seen in the last five years or so,
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: where teams are passing a lot more aggressively. This is
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: the reaction to so many more teams using two high
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: defenses and inviting the run, and now teams are saying, Okay,
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: we're not going to be able to throw the ball explosively.
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: We actually have to take what they give us on
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: the ground. We have to get that second safety to
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: come down into the box and then we can start
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: throwing the ball downfield again. So because of that, I
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: also think running back chalk is better this year, and
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: it's probably gonna continue to be better this year than
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: it was two three years ago because so many more
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: things are flowing through those running backs, through the running game,
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: setting a play action, and even like a lot of
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: passing is now if they're gonna sit in too high,
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: we're gonna dump it down to the running back so
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: they get an extra two to three free points a week.
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: So I think this is a really kind of cool conversation,
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: and I happen to have a lot of really good
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: data on this. So running back chalk is better. But
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: when you get that like really rare mega chalk wide receiver,
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: understand that there's a reason he's that popular and he's
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: extremely likely to.
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: Be successful, and that's the key. And I mean that's
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: no surprise to anybody who watches the show. I mean
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: we literally had that in full the week of the Puko,
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: like what was the seventy I forget what his Receiving
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: Yards prop was that week. It was insanely low, like something,
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: What does your book have right now? If you pull
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: it up for the Pooka Receiving Yard prop, you know.
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I can get it. I think I saw like
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: ninety six and alf.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to say my book actually took him down
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: for some reason. It has DeVante up there, and then
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: it doesn't have it doesn't have it.
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: He's ninety five and a half at DraftKings, Fan Duel Caesars.
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: He's ninety six and a half at bet Rivers, ninety
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: seven and a half at bet MGM. We have a
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: prop shop over at FTN. I think it's pretty used,
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: by the way, so if anyone's ever interested, just FT
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: and Fantasy google prop shop and you can see every
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: book that's available in your stage. You can see all
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: the props.
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: So I think it's different this week a little bit,
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: only because he's eighty seven. I guess my point is, like,
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: I think Pooka's gonna smash this week as everybody else,
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: the ownership is still there, He's still I would consider
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: him if he's over thirty percent mega in this stuff.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: So I agree, and I'm not moving. I'm not trying
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: to move off of them if I don't have to.
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: But I'm saying, if I don't get to him, I
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: am going to be thinking about hoping to leverage it.
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: Whether or not that is just hopium or not, I'll
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: find out. But the week he was like seven K
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: or whatever, it was like seventy three hundred. I know
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: you had this in your articles and stuff. We talked
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: about it on the show. I kept talking about it.
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: He was in my core over on the sides like
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: you find a way to get different elsewhere, the epitome
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: of it's not who you play, it's how you play them.
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: You're playing him and you figure it out elsewhere. But overall, yes,
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: that's definitely yeah. The book is getting nervous on the
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: over man. They can't figure out the number. They're changing
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: it up a little bit. But all right, I want
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: to talk some game stacks before I do. I got
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: to do just a couple quick things. I'm gonna run
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: through this fast. Just from the marketing side. I know
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: you've got a ton of stuff going on at FtM,
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: but I also want to make sure this is covered.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: So you guys see the code on the screen ship
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: nineteen that is five days for nineteen dollars. I I
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: deal with the customer service and the support, so I
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: have a bunch of people asking me if you go
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: to the one hundred and thirty nine dollars plan or
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: the three hundred and twenty one dollars plan and put
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: in the code ship nineteen, you will get five days
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: for nineteen dollars. But it renews. It's a trial people
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: like remember this, so if you're not sticking around longer,
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: that's fine, but it will renew on you. So make
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: sure that you know that. And then just quickly talk
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: about Mastermind. Had a bunch of people ask in the
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: chat about this today. Alex, You've helped out a ton
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: over here. We've got another upcoming show that we want
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: to do as well, where you're going to break down
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: sort of your history and past and do it behind
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: the Mind episode. But this is for more process oriented stuff.
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: So if you like what we're talking about on this show,
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: it's easy. It's a one time payment you get in.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: You can even split the payment up over three payments.
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: But the biggest thing is and people asked about this
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: from today is if you go to this and you
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: go to the event. This one here was asked about
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: our discord, so I'm just bringing it up now, the
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: two million dollar mission. By the way, DraftKings brought this
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: tournament back this year. I'm sure you saw it. Alex.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: We love ticket hunting, and we'll spend a whole show
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: maybe talking about that at some point where we go
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: through the satellites and ways to get those tickets. That's
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: what you do to get into a ton of these
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: big megasine stuff. I had five tickets to the thirty
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: three thirty three Ultimate Main Event last year, which has
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: two million dollars for first I just missed cashing all
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: five of them. That's the spoiler alert. But if you
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: want to know how I use the stone, and how
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: I use an optimizer, and how I put together all
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: the pieces of the content, this is the episode that
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: you would want. You can get in for less than
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: one hundred bucks and get on the payment plan and
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: it's two ninety seven one time payment. But I just
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: thought I would show that off. What do you guys
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: got going on while we're doing the marketing segment here,
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Alex over for yourself and at FTN.
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the biggest thing over at F ten
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: is if you're interested in contest sims, we've got those.
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: We have different packages by the way, so you don't
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: have to spend a massive amount of money, especially if
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: you are a single entry player like many of you
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: guys obviously are, with the emphasis that we're putting on
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: single entry in this show, so you can get sims
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: at a very very affordable rate over there at FT
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: and Fantasy. And then in my own discord, anybody who
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: has found a lot of value from Tambo's Mastermind, You're
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: going to love everything that I've got in my discord
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: as well. And then props and pick them is the
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: other big thing for me, and I know that you
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: guys don't offer to the same extent, so if you
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: want to smash the props like I almost think of
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: props and pick them as my version of cash games.
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: I haven't played DFS cash games in like ten years,
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: so you know, I balance the risk and the you know,
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: the long term nature of I know I'm gonna lose
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: a lot and I'm gonna lose a lot more often
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: than I win in DFS, but it's gonna be made
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: up for with the big wins, I balance that with
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: more frequent wins over in props and and pick them.
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: And so if you're interested in doing that sort of thing,
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: you also love my discord. You can find any of
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: that through my Twitter at Alex Bokawin.
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, pair it all together. Get that under your umbrella.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: For the content diet of what you're taking in. This
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: is all focused around getting better at the game. If
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: you're watching the show, that's clearly what you care about,
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: and that's the key. You know, nobody can promise you
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: to make you win, but they can put you in
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: a much better position. So ship it Nation dot com,
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: get in on that ship nineteen, go to see Alex's stuff.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: If you want more on the Mastermind side of things,
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: you can let me know, hit me up in a DM,
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: or just go to Shipping Slash Mastermind. All right, let's
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: get to the final stuff. We've got the game stacks
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: to talk about, and then we've got our leverage lane
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: at the end, our light at the end of the
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: lane where you and I are going to pick where
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: we're going this week. I'll note a couple I said,
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: these aren't even part of mine. Really quickly, just to
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: bring it up. Going back to thinking it from a
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: stack perspective, I actually think one is Gino Smith and
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: it's totally different than what most of we going to
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: is way down the board. I know it's a bit riskier,
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: but one thing I'll say about it, and when people
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: go look at this themselves, they can check it out.
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: With no rock bowers and the opportunity to tighten that
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: tree up a little bit, you don't have to run
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: it back if you don't want to. There is Pollard
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: and Ridley, and like you said, that's hard to figure out.
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: Maybe you don't want them, but that a spot like
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: that is condensed and keeps my running back positions open
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: for the ability to spend up. So it kind of
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: ties together with all of my thinking Alex of like
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: ways that you can still spend up at running back
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: while still getting a correlated stack, while still getting a
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: spot that's not crazy. It's definitely an op opportunity. There's
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: there's another way you could go in that game too,
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: which I'll get to, but I think that's interesting as well.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: What do you think for some of your game stacks
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: or stuff that you think to play with the stuff
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: we already know based on ownership and whatnot.
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: Well, first, this Raiders calls an interesting one. I don't
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: think I'm going to get there because I always have
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: a bringback and I don't want to play a Titan,
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: just like playing period, I didn't want to play any Titans.
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: But I could definitely see Gino having success here. And
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: there's there's another interesting thing, which is Jack Besh has
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: pretty much taken the job from Deonte Thornton, which is
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: great for Trey Tucker because now it's not like most
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: of the deep targets are going to go to Tucker.
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: Almost all of the deep targets are going to go
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: to Tucker. So I think some of them is Besh
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: when the game won the job from Thornton, But I
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: think it's also Trey Tucker just so clearly was the
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: better explosive play guy that that you know, even at
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: forty eight hundred dollars, I think he's Rethwhile if I
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: was going Gino Smith, I would definitely have Trey Tucker
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: and then either Myers or Meyer along with him, But
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: Trey Tucker is the one that I would definitely have.
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: This is a tough week for stacks like this is
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: I think the least shore I've been about what stack
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: I'm going to play. I just wrote up three different
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: stacks in an article for FTN this morning, and it's
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: the first time this year that I think I wouldn't
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: be surprised if the stack I end up using tomorrow
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: is not one of those three within that article. I
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: think the two that I will focus the most on
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: for this show, and the two that I'm most likely
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: to use for number one is just a Herbert onslaught.
• 46:30
  Speaker 3: This is a fantastic spot for Justin Herbert. It's especially
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: a fantastic spot for Keenan Allen. You know, Miami is
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: dead last in passing success rate allowed, but they don't
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: give up a ton of explosives. They're most vulnerable over
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: the middle. They play a lot of too high. All
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: of those things are great for Keenan Allen, not quite
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: so great for lad and Quinn Johnston. But Amy's still
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: so bad. And the Chargers could be throwing so much
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: if they can't get a ground game going without Hampton
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: or Nasha Harris. I think we could see like ty
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: five pass attempts from Herbert and all three of those
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: receivers get there. So I would definitely have Keenan Allen,
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: and then I have at least one of Ladd and QJ.
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: But honestly, like I'd be okay with the triple and
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: just using all three and sane I'm going to get
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: it all of the passing production from the Chargers I
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: would want to bring back from Miami. I think a Chan,
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: Waller and Waddle all makes sense, but probably wouldn't have
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: to go Waller just to save some salary. I think
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: a cham would be my second favorite if you could
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: fit it. The one that's a little bit more exciting
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: and is kind of more in line with last week
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: is go to Green Bay, use Jordan Love with either
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: Romeo Dobbs or Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft. Kraft is
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: the one that I'd one hundred percent use, and then
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: us Jamark Chase as a bringback again second straight week.
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: Chase is number one in our wide receiver GVP scores.
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: Came through in a huge way last week, could do
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: it again this week, and you'd also therefore be leveraging
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: Josh Jacobs chalk. So you know there's a lot of
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: really good chalk running backs. How do you help make
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: the decision of who to play running back well, make
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: some decisions that easily leverage some of them, and that
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: makes the other running back chalk even better. So that's
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: a path that I'm really looking at as well. So
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: that for me it would probably be love Dobbs, Craft,
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: Jamar Chase.
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the other one. I was going to bring
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: up it's not my lane later, but just to note it,
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: I was gonna say the love factor. We talked a
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: little bit about it yesterday with Mayo Squirrel. Patrol of
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: myself is like the hard part in something like single
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: entry is guessing it. And like, once again, you can
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: get away with like a mistake typically, but really, especially
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: on DraftKings, it's super hard to get away with anything.
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: And so if once you start to go down the
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: road of Dobbs, Wicks whatever else you're mixing in there,
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: it's like that Golden et cetera, et cetera, it's like, okay,
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: well maybe I can just go love Craft and then
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: put Chase in there as a way to get different.
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: Now in larger field stuff, I want to overstack that
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: love spot. I do want to let get enough of
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: him in my portfolio to be able to game stack
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: that stuff. Because remember the what is the war? And
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: Buffett be fearful when others are be greedy when others
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: are fearful. And that's an example of where what people
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: are fearful of is that they make a mistake. It's like,
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: we make a mistake a ton of weeks. I've been
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: making mistakes for five weeks. I haven't had any massive
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: wins yet. It typically is, you know, week six and beyond.
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: We've got DVP rankings now that I like using some
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: of things like that that you can do a little
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: bit more with and just catch on to things. But
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: my success in NFL dfs has typically always been in
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: the sort of mid range and second half of the season.
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: So I think we're getting there, and this is kind
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: of the lead up towards it. So I like that
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: in tournaments and I'm happy to get after it that way.
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: So those were some that stood out. The chat was
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: talking about Flacco. The Flacco side of it, I like
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: love more. I obviously talk about this a ton where
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: if a guy like Jamar Chase gets there, it typically
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: brings somebody along like Burrow, but now it's Flaco. Last
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: week it was Browning. I mean, they're changing it up,
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: so often. How do you think about that in this spot,
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: because I think it's fine if you go to love
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: side and just bring it back with Chase and get
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: your points that way.
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna say two things here the versus in
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: regards to the Green Bay wide receivers, I actually do
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: think there's a clear option. It's Romeo Dobbs. I was
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: really surprised to see this, but Romeo Dobs actually has
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: a higher average depth of target than Matthew Golden. So like,
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: in my mind, Dobbs was this, you know, safer underneath guy,
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: kind of like akeenan Allen, and then Golden was the
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: field stretcher. Dobbs is actually getting those downfield targets as well,
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: and he's got four touchdowns, so I really like him.
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: The defensive splits are also pretty good for him. That
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: this is a pretty good matchup coverage wise with Cincinnati
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: for him. Not as good as Tucker Craft though, but
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: in terms of Placo the way that I would do this,
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: and I actually think it's a fine idea. It's actually
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: a good enough idea that I've already made the decision, like, oh,
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: I need to think about this more. You could play
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: Flacco with just Jamar Chase, but have the same amount
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: of correlation by using two green Bay bringbacks, which is
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: also like the only script in which Blaco's throwing ball
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: enough in his aggressive enough downfield where he hit because
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: otherwise you know he's he's going to try to cut
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: down on the interceptions that he's thrown. Interestingly, there by
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: the way, he has six interceptions this year, only four
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: turnover worthy throws, which is extremely rare. It basically means
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: like at least two of his interceptions or entirely not
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: his fault. So I do like that from him. But
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: but yeah, I think the way that I would do
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: that is Flacco, Jamar Chase, Josh Jacobs and Tucker Craft
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: and you hope that you get you know, maybe two
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: touchdowns from Jacobs one hundred yards, but then Craft also
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: has one hundred yards on a touchdown himself. Green Bay's
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: offense is pushing Flacco to throw the ball a lot,
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: and maybe you get the late game, you know, deep
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: exposive to play from Chase the way we got it
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: last week. So I think that's a really interesting way
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: to play this game. And it's it's one that I'm
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: going to give a lot of thought too.
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: I also think it's interesting just to stop it. Like
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: we said earlier in single Entry, again, I love Craft,
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: don't get me wrong. I'm just saying, but if you
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: if you just wanted to cut it off, I mean,
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: you could do Flacco Chase Craft, or you could use
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: that as a way to play Jacobs and not worry
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: as much about because you've got the others. But then
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: you can cut That's where people get so confused and
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: they're like, well, then I'm just playing all the chalk
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: running backs and everything else that sort of fits together.
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: It's like you're playing Joe Flacco and Jamar Chase, like
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: nobody is playing those guys, and if they go off,
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: they're correlated together, and if they break the slate, it's everything.
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: So people just have to remember, if it doesn't work
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: out again, pick your lane that you feel most comfortable
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: with and run with it. But there's no argument that
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: that if Jamar Chase has a thirty five plus point game,
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: it's likely to benefit Flacco, who's so cheap, And instead
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: of trying to figure out the rest and get crazy
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: with it, you could just pick one of Craft or
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: Jacobs and you're allowed to play around variations. I don't
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: care if you're a handbilder sitting on the toilet, like
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: we talk about the shitter lineups, or if you're playing
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: with an optimizer, you're allowed to compare both lock in Flacco,
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: lock in jamar Chase, lock in Craft and then see
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: what happens, and look for the best lineups that just
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: use Craft and not another packer, and then do the
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: same for the Jacob stuff, look for ones that don't
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: use them, and then save those lineups and then start
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: to compare them side by side. Like we're keeping this
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: conversation around single entry with the ability to then extrapolate
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: out if obviously, if you play three max or twenty
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: max or five and whatever number of lineups you play, well,
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: now you might love one of the Craft versions, you
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: love one of the Jacobs versions, and you like what
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: Alex said about playing them both. Boom, there's three lineups.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: Run with it. If you're if you're in your if
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: that's your lane and it's correct this week, you're gonna
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: be in great shape because you can kind of fit
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: whatever else you want around. It doesn't mean you'll get
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: it all right, but you should feel good about where
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: you're at. That way, go ahead.
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Another thing I'd say is, remember we have six
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: very chalky running backs in this leg. We could see
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: six guys at twenty five percent or more. Even if
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: you use three chalky running backs, you're fading at least
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: three chalky running backs. So you know, if your only
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: separators in your lineup are flac owing chase, it's not
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: necessarily a horrible thing because you're that you guess that
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: you also have like the exact same combinations of the
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: rest of the guys is really low. So it's not
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: something we have to pay as much attention to this
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: week since there are six really chucky running backs and
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: we're probably not seeing any of them get to like
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: sixty percent as some as we do in some weeks
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: where you know, if you use a sixty percent running
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: back into forty percent running backs, that's a lot different
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: than using three guys at twenty five to thirty percent
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: and fading another three guys at twenty fuckers.
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: And what are you doing with the rest of your
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: build exactly? Even if you're on those three running backs,
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: it might be with a I don't know what if
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: the bucks might get steamed, but I'm saying maybe if
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: you are on White, it's the bucks D that goes
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: with them to slice in. Or if you're on Williams,
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: because now you can't get to Pukah since you went
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: to Chase. Maybe you play Williams, but you play the
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: rams D with it. Like that's where people think it's
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: like a crystal ball. It's like, no, it just makes sense.
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: What I forget sometimes is that, you know, obviously, the
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: experience level of playing longer and seeing this stuff a
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: million times, it's like that seems more second nature. I
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: always want to make sure it's well explained to be
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: able to go through. Obviously, if people have questions, get
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: throw them in there. I love my guy, but I
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: don't see it. Like he's saying the wide chalk wide
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: receiver is hitting something to monitor Flacco in the same boat.
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: There's no chalk on Flaco. There's no chalk on Jamar Chase.
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: So you're already like two guys under five percent owned probably.
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, if Jamar Chase gets steamed up any what
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: does he get to eight to ten percent? Like, I
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: just don't see it happening, not at all the way
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: this slate sets up. And that's the other thing is
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: let's say you have like a Jamar Chase, I'll just
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: use a mini one. People could throw this in. It's
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: definitely not my lane, but just a quick one. On
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: that conversation Flacco Chase Kraft, A lot of people that
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: are playing a Packer will play Craft, but also people
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: will have Jacobs. When you're picking between those six running backs,
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: a lot of people that go Jacobs think about the
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: Packers in that lineup. I may or may not be
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: able to afford Pooka because I'm spending on Chase, and
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: that's like, oh, how could you do that? But I'm saying,
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: now that is where I go to Williams. But then
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: I also realize that because I'm not on Jacobs and
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: I'm not on the Packers D, I also have a
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: pivot off the Packers D that correlates with my leverage
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: off and it's not really leveraged, by the way, because
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: Williams is gonna get stemed up huge this week to Pooka.
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: But you get what I'm saying. When you're Flacco Chase Craft,
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: people are like, well, what the hell does Williams and
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: the rams D have to do with that? I just
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: explained it. It definitely has everything to do with that,
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: because if you're on Craft, you're not on Jacobs. If
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: people are on Jacobs, the combos are more likely popular
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: with the packers. You're playing Williams, but you're everyone else
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: is too, but they don't have Flacco and Chase and
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: now you're playing them with the rams D. See how
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: all that goes together. And yes, you still have more
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: spots to fill out. But that's what I'm saying, Especially
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: when it comes down to single entry, there's levels to
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: it that you have to think through. You don't just
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: throw your top nine favorite players in it. It's that's
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: how the things work where you start putting the puzzle together.
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: So anything else on the game stacks that you want
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: to add before we get to our leverage lane and
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: then the light at the end of the lane here.
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Actually, one other thing I'll add is I think
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: the the status of Christian Gonzalez for New England is
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: an important one. I would have some interest in Drake
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: maystacks if Christian Gonzalez is out, because I think then
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: there's a real chance that New Orleans actually pushes them.
• 57:12
  Speaker 3: If New Orleans can't push them, I don't want anything
• 57:14
  Speaker 3: to do with may Or Diggs Digs by the way,
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: like he's still not playing that many snaps. He's mostly
• 57:21
  Speaker 3: only playing on clear pass downs. And so if they're
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: in a game script where they're way ahead and they
• 57:30
  Speaker 3: want to run the ball and they want to play
• 57:31
  Speaker 3: a lot of heavy personnel and you know when they
• 57:33
  Speaker 3: throw it, it's just with play action and trying to
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: get a first down at drain clock. Like Digs, it's
• 57:38
  Speaker 3: not just that he won't be targeted down the field,
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: he might not even be on the field and that
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: type of game script, so you have to be very
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: careful with that. But may Hunter Henry Stefan Diggs would
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: be interesting if you can feel confident about like a
• 57:51
  Speaker 3: rashicha heat bring back, something like that. So that's if
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: Christian Gonzalez is out, that's what I'm gonna be considering.
• 57:57
  Speaker 3: If Gonzalez is in, I'm not going to give any
• 58:00
  Speaker 3: separation of that game whatsoever.
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: I love that call too. It's again it's another that's
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: like more of an I know ball side of things
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: that people don't you know, spend enough time on of.
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: Like again, it's not really though, because it's more of
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: I know dfs and it's like I think for this
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: to work in real life with I know Ball, it
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: needs to have this for me to consider it in DFS.
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: And it's like that type of thing putting together as
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: opposed to like this guy is due for these tds
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: and stuff like that, where it's like who knows, like
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: everyone's due forever. I'm due to win the Millionmaker. When's
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: that happening? Hopefully this weekend? I don't know, but like
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: it's it's part of those things where it could be
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: something else. Just trying to think here too, So I
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: don't mind going like we usually try and wrap the
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: show up in an hour, but you know, it's good conversation.
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: People are liking it, and make sure you guys do
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: us a favorite, hit the like button, hit the thumbs up.
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: It helps us grow this show. And on top of that,
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: if you can subscribe to the channel, we truly appreciate
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: it as we can continue to grow that also, just
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: over eleven thousand subscribers. Now, is there a spot we missed?
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: I know rams are about to be a conversation in
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: a minute anyway, but is there anything else we missed
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: before we get to the light at the end of
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: the lane?
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: I don't think. So we haven't talked a ton about
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: tight end. You know, we we mentioned Kraft, we mentioned
• 59:07
  Speaker 3: Ferguson a little bit. I don't think Warren is going
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: to be popular enough for this to really come into play.
• 59:15
  Speaker 3: But if Warren steams and he ends up, you know,
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: right now we've got him at fifteen percent in single
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: ac try if he certainly looks like twenty twenty five percent,
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor is already one of the best GPP scores
• 59:27
  Speaker 3: for us UH. And you know, with all of the
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: running back chalk and with him being so expensive, like
• 59:34
  Speaker 3: it's going to be really difficult for people to get
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: to Jonathan Taylor. If he also becomes a really good
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: leverage playoff of Tyler Warren, like that would be really
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: interesting to me. So then you go play Jonathan Taylor.
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: Now you're hoping that Warren fay Or fails, which makes
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: you know, Jake Ferguson a better play, makes Tucker Kraft
• 59:50
  Speaker 3: a better play, makes Hunt Henry better play. So I
• 59:53
  Speaker 3: think even before we get to the leverage lane, Like
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: one of the themes that we've hit on a lot
• 59:58
  Speaker 3: this show, you just hit on it, I just hit
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: on it is make sure that the decisions as you're
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 3: making within a lineup are connected to each other this week.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 3: It's always important, but it's especially important this week. Tell
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 3: that story of this guy fails, which makes this guy
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: a better play. If he's a better play, then this
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 3: guy's a better play, and just let those decisions connect
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 3: with one another. And the great thing about that is, like,
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 3: it also makes our job a lot easier. Right, It's
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: so hard to pick the right lineup. There are almost
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 3: infinitely many combinations of lineups that we could build. If
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: we are narrowing that down by connecting the decisions, our
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 3: job becomes a lot easier and the lineup becomes better.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, one hundred percent agree. I just wanted to look
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: up one more thing on that too, because I love
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: the Jonathan Taylor call again, and yeah, just don't believe
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: the ownership ends up coming in as high on him
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: as what we would think. It's just there's already those
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: four running backs that we talked about, you know, a
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: ton the show, and then on top of everything else
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: that goes with that. I know you were just talking
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: tight end, but just going back to what you'd mentioned there,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: I think there's also a possibility with that for Warren.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: I guess, yeah, it was my lane in week whenever
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: we started, like week three. But if you did end
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: up on another one that's not mine, I'm gonna go
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: to mine in a second. But if you did end
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: up on Daniel Jones again, or something in your large
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: field stuff, or if you're playing enough lineups, or if
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: that's the lane you want to go down, I actually
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: wouldn't hate even like a Jones, Taylor, Warren Pittman, if
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: you want to mix them in however you want to
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: mix it up across that their schedule to put up
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: points it is against the Cardinals. I think it's a
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: good spot. I think the Colts d is fine. I
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: think like a Colt's Onslaught is definitely a good spot
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: on this light. We don't name everything. It's that's another one.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: In all those conversations, we just had to come up
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: where I don't see Warren being as popular as he
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: was last week, and I think Taylor has to get
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: squeezed a little bit here by the end of the week.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: We'll see how that goes. He even got squeezed last
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: week when he wasn't supposed to get fully squeezed, he
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: still dropped from like twenty eight percent projected down to
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: twenty to twenty three. So the chat's messing it all
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: up now, So it's fine anyway. They can't make this
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: stuff up the light at the end of the lane.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: I'm kicking mine off first because the chat's trying to
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: get there first. Kenny too sharp, but he probably just
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: copied because I was hinting at stuff in the discord.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: I'm definitely gonna be in on Trevor Lawrence this week.
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: I don't think the birthday narrative again, we don't focus
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: on narrative street here. We had that last week he
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: took over. I actually thought he didn't play. People will
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: take this the wrong way. I don't think he had
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: a great game, and they still did enough to knock
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: off the Chiefs, and obviously he did by the end
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: of it. But I'm saying I think he can do
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: a lot more. I like that the tree is more
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: condensed now with no Brenton Strange. I like being able
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: to keep my running back positions open. So for mine,
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do fully what you think I'm gonna
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: talk about it, but I'm gonna have a caveat here
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: is my lane is going to be. I still like JSN.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: I still think he is too cheap, and he may
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: get more steam by the end of the week too,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: because I think people are gonna start to see that
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: he's eleven hundred less than Pooka. I still like Pooka
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: more on paper, but if you need the eleven hundred bucks,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: I think Jsn's great. I'm less likely to chase the
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: donald stuff, and that's why I'm landing here on my lane.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: I'm more likely I'm gonna go I'm gonna go Lawrence
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: Hunter long and JSN. Go back to what you said. Now,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: the caveat is I think everyone otto assumes with Brian
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: Thomas Junior. The reason I don't want to fully put
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: him in there. So first off, what I'll say the
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: good I think if we saw last week like whatg
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: Buka can do, everyone will say, well, that's a different story,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: it's a new season. Whatever. If you started the season.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: I know how big of a prospect that Buca was,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: we know why he was chalk week one. I get it,
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: but were you really still taking him over Brian Thomas
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: Junior after the year he's coming off of and the
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: type of player that he's been so how can he
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: not do it? He can do it. So that's the
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: point there, first of all. But there is some stuff
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: around Travis Hunter too now, and then we started to
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: see it last week, and so I'm leaving the middle
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: spot open on the caveat there. Maybe I'll commit to
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: it fully by Sunday, but I can promise you, being
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: that this is my lane, it won't just be in
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: single entry. You'll see it in other places where I
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: am playing this Trevor Lawrence passing stack and I'm using
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: JSN on the run back. What do you think and
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: what do you got?
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah? I like it. I'd also say Jacksonville is a
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 3: very good defense, but they have been the third most
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 3: favorable matchup for wide receiver ones according to our dvaway
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 3: adjusted Fantasy points against data. This is a really good
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 3: spot for JSN. It's also something that just like the
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: way they play coverages really fits jsn's game. So I
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 3: like that call quite a bit, and being able to
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 3: correlate the JSN call in a nice way obviously makes
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 3: a lot of sense. Are you ready for money?
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: I'm ready, man, whatever you got. I like that call though,
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: but that was my thing that we didn't spend another
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, again, we can't talk about everything on this show,
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: but was the PUGA stuff makes perfect sense segue in
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: the second spoiler alert, But the JSN stuff is clearly
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: standing out to people like they're there, but are they
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: all the way there in making it so that it
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: actually makes sense. I mean, he gets pushed and he
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: pushes something in that and we just saw work last
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: week and I don't see as many people headed towards
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: it this week. The past d is not good for
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: anybody who is a ship, a nation member, ftmember looking
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: at those stats and seeing it. So I think the
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: Jags can do enough here, and there's tons of ways
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: you can get different, but allows me to still get
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: some different leverage into my lineups in other ways as
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: well to get different. So go ahead, I'll let you
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: roam with yours.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, mine, Savante Adams, And it's it's pretty straightforward, honestly,
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: Like obviously, if Adams has a really good game, he's
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 3: leveraging both Kyen Williams and Kuka Nakuo. But I will
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 3: give you guys some context into why I think Adams
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: can have that type of ceiling game that seals from
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 3: those guys because averageff target this year is twelve and
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 3: a half. It's over four yards above what it was
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: last year in New York, and it's the highest average
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: chef of target he's ever had in his entire career.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: They are using him in an incredibly valuable role. And
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: the second part to that is, you know, we haven't
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: seen the huge reception game, and therefore we haven't seen
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: the huge yardag game. His catch rate is under fifty
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: percent so far, and even running these downfield routes it's
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: Matt Stafford and Davante Adams. That catch rate is going
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: to positively regress. And when it does, we're going to
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: see games where Adams instead of being stuck at like
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 3: five for eighty eight, it's seven for one forty, and
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: it's seven for one forty with two scores. So the
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 3: massive games I think are really coming for Adams. This
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 3: is a great matchup. We consider Adams the wide receiver
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 3: one in our data just because we don't base it
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: off of like who does the offense want to get
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: the ball to. It's how does the defense defend this team?
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: And when you look at how Philly defended them, Queen
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 3: On Mitchell was shadowing Davante Adams. DeVante Adams contin consistently
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 3: gets the wide receiver one treatment because it's impossible to
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 3: do that to Puka with the way he moves around
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 3: pre snap, the way he lines up in all types
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 3: of formations, including out of the backfield sometimes or like
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 3: an inline tight end blocking, and then he's the play
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 3: action guy. So Baltimore has been a top five matchup
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: for the second consecutive year for opposing wide receiver ones,
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 3: which again they're going to treat Adams in that way.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 3: This is a smash spot for him. I think he's
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 3: being severely undervalued for what his role is. And crucially,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 3: when we get that ceiling performance, if we can leverage
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 3: two thirty plus percent guys in Puka or Kiren, that's
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: going to make a world of difference for us. So
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 3: I think DeVante Adams is far and away the best
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: player in the sleep and he's where I'm going to
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 3: start my line.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: Man strong takes. I know one thing people are talking
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: to the chat about strong wins being a possibility in
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: that game, and that's where I think to like you
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: talked about earlier, Williams is the ram that's going to
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: get just steamed the most based off of that. I
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: think if you're going that route, the way to do
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: it differently is with the rams D. But like you said,
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: if it is a game for Adams, you know it
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: could be a big one. And the base The other
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: thing is he's in that nomen's land for wide receiver
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: pricing at sixty seven hundred. It's people are either going
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: to go up, down, or around. They're not really looking
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: for that, and when they're going to a RAM, they're
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: looking for Williams or Puka. So could be a really
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: standout call. Anything else that we forgot or that you
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: want to mention before we get out of.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 3: Here, well, I think the only other thing along with
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 3: that is if you are so, I feel I will
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 3: address the weather real quick. I don't really care. So
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 3: the first thing here is, like I think, it's quarterback
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 3: de Pennant. Stafford is one of the strongest arms and
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 3: some of the most confidence in his arm in the league,
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: and he deserves to have it right. Like he's at Stafford,
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 3: the guy it was born to throw a football and
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 3: throw it well. And also it's not like Adams is
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: running these deep routes, as you know, a difficult forty
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 3: yard throw down the sideline. It's like deep crossers and
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 3: things like that, where he's catching it twenty two yards
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 3: downfield and then running with it. So I think the
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 3: types of throws that he's getting downfield aren't affected by
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 3: the wind anyway. And because it's Matt Stafford, I carry
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 3: of him less. So I still really like Adams, but
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 3: I also think that we cant this Adams decision with
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 3: a running back decision. If Adams is making Kiren Williams
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 3: less intriguing, now Javonte Williams or Ashton gent in that range,
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 3: they become even better. They become more likely to be
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 3: the guy that you need or the best value in
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 3: that range because one of the great options in that range,
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: Kyri Williams, is less likely to succeed. So kind of
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 3: continuing the theme of making sure that our decisions this
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 3: week are really connected, I think that's one of them.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 3: If you're using Davante, that like mid six k range
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 3: of running backs becomes even better since we know we're
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 3: not using Kyro.
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I love the interconnectivity. Like again, we just talked
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: about that a ton on this show, and that's something
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: I think that you know, just in talking to a
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: ton of people at ship a nation in the Mastermind Project.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: All the stuff that you do, I'm sure is the same.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: Where it's like it doesn't doesn't resonate as quickly with
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: people about how it's all interconnected, as opposed to like
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: if they don't always think of the if this, then that,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: and that's what we're trying to help you guys with here.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: If you guys appreciate this and it's helping you out,
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: make sure to hit that thumbs up. I will say,
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: you know, people know about a ted talk. I'll do
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: my Tambo talk on the way out. It's a bit
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: of a ramp, but you don't know how many people
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: have come through and said this show is their new
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: favorite show, and you know, I love that this combinations together.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: Maybe we get it for the PGA season. Things like that.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: Definitely a possibility. But I can't stress this enough. Nobody
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: wears their heart on their sleeve. More is more vulnerable
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: and open, just to say in the truth, the more
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: you like it, the more you hit the like button
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: and help the show grow, the more we're able to show.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: I don't think that resonates either with people they think
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: like begging for likes or whatever it might be. I
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: can't stress it enough. This show can easily just go
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: behind the paywall, and it's great for Shibpa Nation members.
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: We can duel it up and get it over to
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: the FTN side, and everybody that pays can get it.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: If you want free stuff and you like the free stuff,
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: you have to hit the free stuff. The free button
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: is the like button, So do that for us. It
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: helps us out. We get more subscribers, we get more
• 1:10:48
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• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: and find us, and that allows us to do these
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: things for free. You have to get that through to
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: make sure you understand that as well. So hopefully that
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: rant helps Alex let the people know where they can
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: find you, Mane, we get out of.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 3: Here at alex Blika one on Twitter and both FTN
• 1:11:05
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• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, appreciate it. And a lot of people. We had
• 1:11:15
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• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: behind the paywall, like man, just don't give this out
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: to everybody. But it's like again, not too our own horn.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: As much as we really love this, it's our passion,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: we want to do it, but it is part of it.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: Like we can't stress it enough. People don't understand all
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: this side of the business and what works. Like there's
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: AI algorithm slop everywhere that's getting pushed out there and
• 1:11:33
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• 1:11:36
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• 1:11:37
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• 1:11:39
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• 1:11:42
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  Speaker 1: all down again for week seven for Alex for myself
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: to tech and tambo led.
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 4: Ship its hast hands.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 3: Don't anyth