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WARNING: The FED Could Repeat 2021 Bitcoin Crash THIS Week! | Bitcoin Simply · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  We're in for a massive week in macro finance with Jerome Powell
• 0:03
  pulling up the Jackson Hole like an offensive quality control
• 0:06
  coach for the New York Giants. We know that he's ready for
• 0:09
  either a preseason football game or to deliver some serious
• 0:12
  comments that move markets and change the world for people like
• 0:16
  you and me. We're all waiting to hear what
• 0:18
  he has to say at the FOMC meeting tomorrow.
• 0:22
  And there's Jackson Hole comments on Friday.
• 0:24
  Wall Street is expecting a rate cut at 83% clip, but not so fast
• 0:29
  my friend. Sure, CPI cooled .2% and tariffs
• 0:32
  are generating much more revenue than anyone thought or expected.
• 0:36
  That doesn't get over the fact that the economy doesn't look so
• 0:38
  good. The University of Michigan
• 0:40
  sentiment fell to 58.6 with inflation expectations looking
• 0:44
  much higher. Poor sales are starting to show
• 0:46
  up from tariff price increases. Today we're going to look at
• 0:49
  what Jerome Powell said last year, how it impacts markets or
• 0:52
  doesn't, and what this means for markets in Bitcoin.
• 0:55
  Simply in the short term, could we see bitcoins price crash like
• 0:58
  it did in 21, which after Jackson Hole the price fell from
• 1:02
  69 K to 17 K. It also drove the next several
• 1:06
  rallies we've seen in Bitcoin. We'll find out today.
• 1:08
  This is Dante Coke with Bitcoin. Simply, let's go.
• 1:15
  All right, let's get to the big news.
• 1:16
  Tomorrow, Jerome Powell has a meeting to update us on the soap
• 1:19
  opera drama that he has going between him and President Trump.
• 1:22
  No, I'm just kidding. He's going to come deliver
• 1:24
  cryptic messages and notes about what he will or won't do, which
• 1:27
  has been pretty much nothing over the past four years.
• 1:30
  More importantly, on Friday, he's set to deliver comments at
• 1:33
  Jackson Hole. And for those of you who aren't
• 1:35
  familiar with Jackson Hole, well, it's an opportunity for
• 1:38
  rich people to go have meetings at the Grand Teton to talk about
• 1:41
  economic issues that don't affect them, but impact people
• 1:43
  like you and me, specifically Jerome Powell's comments.
• 1:46
  It's insane that more people are going to tune in to watch Jerome
• 1:49
  Powell's comments at Jackson Hole, then TuneIn to watch Tay
• 1:51
  Tay and Travis on the New Heights podcast.
• 1:53
  Don't look at me like that. You watched it too.
• 1:56
  It's insane. We're like finance junkies.
• 1:58
  We're so addicted that we're looking for any sign that the
• 2:00
  money printer is going to come on and we're looking for any way
• 2:03
  that we can just get a little hit.
• 2:05
  You know what I'm saying? Being like a group of junkies
• 2:07
  who've relapsed on Listen to me, I just need some liquidity, you
• 2:11
  know what I'm saying? I just ran into some bad
• 2:14
  subprime. You know, we just had complex
• 2:16
  formulas. We just didn't factor in greed
• 2:19
  and panic. You know, I just need $805
• 2:22
  billion by Tuesday. Yeah.
• 2:25
  No, seriously. No, I would.
• 2:26
  I would not. Screw you again.
• 2:28
  It's pretty crazy to learn my lesson.
• 2:30
  No, this is not like the other time.
• 2:33
  This. Oh no, this is No seriously, I
• 2:34
  just just give me a bed here, man just give me help me out.
• 2:38
  Just give me a little bit yeah just a taste that's all I need
• 2:41
  is a taste just I need $2.5 trillion.
• 2:44
  I'll pay you back. Give me through one week.
• 2:46
  Yeah, it's like a week they're. Gonna print out a new $20 bill.
• 2:49
  The new Geithner $20 bill will be, you know, instead of in God
• 2:52
  be trusted or just say trust me and there'll be the little man
• 2:55
  from Monopoly going like this. It's always so confusing.
• 2:57
  You're going to leave after watching the Jackson Hole
• 2:59
  meeting, confused because last year he said that we can't
• 3:02
  tolerate for the labor market to weaken anymore.
• 3:04
  With the economy growing at a solid pace, we're looking for
• 3:07
  the inflation rate to get to 2%. It's time for our policy to
• 3:10
  adjust. So it's Jackson Hole and it's
• 3:12
  wonderful that we're all going to be there.
• 3:14
  It's a different Jackson Hole. Couple weeks ago Joe Eisenhower
• 3:17
  was like, yeah, you know, another Jackson Hole.
• 3:20
  But this like 07/08/09, maybe one cents then and this is going
• 3:25
  to be interesting. I think this year is going to be
• 3:27
  fascinating to see how Jay Powell messages this.
• 3:29
  Can I bring up a theory that I have?
• 3:32
  Wouldn't this be an elegant place with all the heritage of
• 3:35
  the Fed that he announces that he's stepping aside or resigning
• 3:40
  here? Really why that seems?
• 3:42
  Like a long shot. OK.
• 3:44
  But why do you think that that's appropriate?
• 3:46
  I don't know the news. We're not even to the news
• 3:48
  server. We know we're taping this.
• 3:49
  We don't we're it's uncertain what we're.
• 3:51
  So here's my question to you. If you are anyone on the Fed or
• 3:55
  if you are Jerome Powell and you truly believe that one of the
• 3:58
  foremost things that America has going for it is central bank
• 4:03
  independence, That one of the things that we must cherish
• 4:05
  across years and years and years of this independence, Is there
• 4:08
  anything? I mean, like, do you think that
• 4:10
  furthers the cause in some way? No.
• 4:13
  No, I'm not saying I agree with it at all, but but it's just the
• 4:16
  pressures are so great and the pressures are even greater with
• 4:20
  a series of inflation reports into this meeting.
• 4:24
  I mean, this is real inflation we're confronting now.
• 4:27
  Potentially more interesting could be Chris Waller and what
• 4:31
  comments he has after Fed Chair Jay Powell and how much unity
• 4:35
  Chair Powell actually tries to get.
• 4:37
  Oh yeah. Can you imagine if Myron?
• 4:39
  Maybe he. Don't know if he's going or is
• 4:40
  he saying? That you're a.
• 4:41
  Dumb question. All the Trumpian candidates show
• 4:45
  up, like, is Rick Reeder going to be there?
• 4:47
  And James Bullard and the 400. Others.
• 4:50
  That's It is in the lounge talking about his desire for 50
• 4:54
  point cut. Well, Jerome, the labor market
• 4:56
  is weak. 11% of small businesses now see poor sales due to
• 4:59
  tariffs as low as COVID. This is a leading indicator that
• 5:02
  unemployment will rise above 5% in the coming months.
• 5:06
  And inflation is at your 2% target.
• 5:08
  The annualized inflation rate is 1.9% as of July.
• 5:12
  We have experts that have no clue what he's going to say.
• 5:15
  I'll make my predictions. I doubt he steps down and I
• 5:18
  doubt that he cuts rates. I mean, stocks are at all time
• 5:20
  highs and we haven't seen total collapse in the market, but
• 5:23
  things don't look good. I mean, things like lumber are
• 5:26
  saying timber as lumber prices are falling off a Cliff, which
• 5:29
  is typically a leading indicator or sign that there's a weakening
• 5:32
  demand in the housing market. And it's not just for
• 5:35
  residential homes, it's coming for commercial with office
• 5:38
  vacancies hitting over 20%. One in five office spaces in
• 5:41
  America is now sitting vacant and the US consumer has no
• 5:44
  confidence. As I said earlier, the Michigan
• 5:46
  sentiment hit 58.6, which is the third lowest mark since 1978.
• 5:51
  Sixty 2% of households expect unemployment to rise this year.
• 5:55
  When people fear job losses, they don't spend, and that
• 5:57
  creates A flywheel effect in the economy and onto the deficit.
• 6:00
  Well, even with tariff money flowing in, nothing's really
• 6:03
  changed. the US government is still spending like a drunken
• 6:06
  sailor. US expenditures have reached 600
• 6:08
  billion each month over the last six.
• 6:10
  In July, the government spent 630 billion, which is up 10%
• 6:15
  from the same period last year. And after 10 months of this
• 6:17
  fiscal year, the budget gap has reached 1.63 trillion, third
• 6:21
  largest deficit in history. Nothing stops his training and
• 6:24
  people in the corporate markets are desperate.
• 6:26
  There's this term that says don't get high on your own
• 6:27
  supply that's mainly used for drug dealers.
• 6:29
  But as we mentioned earlier, everyone's addicted to the Fiat
• 6:32
  printers and we're seeing Ponzis all across the public markets
• 6:35
  where companies are borrowing new debt from new investors to
• 6:39
  pay off old investors. Sounds like a Ponzi scheme.
• 6:42
  So what's Jerome Powell going to do?
• 6:44
  I've got my predictions, but it's looking bleak out there.
• 6:46
  And we'll talk about what implications this has for
• 6:48
  Bitcoin. But before we do that, let's
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• 8:03
  the short term, if we look at charts, actually kicked off the
• 8:06
  bear market in 21. This was also in conjunction
• 8:09
  with the FTX collapse in Sam Bakeman.
• 8:12
  But we did see Bitcoin prices fall from 69,400 to about 17 KA.
• 8:16
  Generational buying opportunity and the next several Jackson
• 8:19
  home meetings incited several rises in Bitcoin.
• 8:23
  But in the long term, the chart. The long term structural aspect
• 8:26
  of the investment thesis in Bitcoin is still the same.
• 8:28
  Look at this tweet from James lavish.
• 8:30
  In the last 20 years the top 10% net worth grew by 72.5 trillion
• 8:35
  while the bottom 50% grew by just 2.6 trillion.
• 8:39
  Relentless money manipulation and asset inflation.
• 8:42
  Money being printed in fixed supply assets causes the value
• 8:45
  of those fixed supply assets to go up.
• 8:47
  It's not rocket science, and it also causes costs for things
• 8:50
  that we need for our everyday life to go up.
• 8:52
  Over the last five years, here's a few things that have gone up
• 8:55
  the price of new. Cars 21%, Groceries 24%.
• 8:58
  Family health insurance 24%, Shelter 28%.
• 9:01
  Used cars 33%, Electricity 38%, transportation 43%, gasoline
• 9:05
  44%, Home prices 52%, Gas utilities 56%, Fuel oil 58%,
• 9:10
  Auto insurance 61%. And eggs 157%.
• 9:14
  I don't think inflation is actually at 1.9%, but that's not
• 9:16
  me. All things continue to be
• 9:18
  bullish for Bitcoin. We've got Dutch companies like
• 9:20
  AMDEX looking to buy 1% of the total Bitcoin supply.
• 9:23
  We've got countries like Brazil that are meeting today to
• 9:26
  discuss a Bitcoin treasury reserve strategy.
• 9:29
  We've got mayors showing up to Bitcoin conferences to talk
• 9:32
  about how they can heat pools with Bitcoin mining in
• 9:34
  Vancouver. Canon former White House crypto
• 9:36
  official executive director Bo Hines is joining companies like
• 9:40
  Tether as their US Bitcoin advisor.
• 9:42
  If you zoom out, although there's nothing really happening
• 9:45
  in the markets right now, that's when all of the people who are
• 9:48
  smart investors with a long term view tend to make the most
• 9:51
  gains. Who cares about Jerome Powell's
• 9:53
  comments on Wednesday or on Friday?
• 9:55
  The result is still the same. The money printer must turn on.
• 9:58
  Life will get more expensive if you don't have a fixed supply
• 10:01
  asset that is outrunning the relentless manipulation of the
• 10:04
  money. The best horse in that race as
• 10:06
  the world is moving from analog capital to digital capital is
• 10:09
  Bitcoin. Don't overcomplicate the trade.
• 10:11
  I'm not that smart and that's why the show was called Bitcoin
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  Thanks for hanging with me guys, and I hope this was valuable and
• 10:34
  formative and I'm glad to be back.
• 10:35
  This is Dante Cook with Bitcoin. Simply happy stacking.