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NFL Week 7 Gambling Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the Podcast and the battle pododcast Network.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I am Schad Mollman. I'm the chief content officer of
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: the Action Network. This is the podcast where me and
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: my best friend, my companion, my compadre professional letter Simon Hunter,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: are going to run through every single game on the
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: NFL slate. We're gonna break it down, what games do
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: we like. We're gonna narrow it down to six seven games.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: On Thursday, we're gonna talk about those, gonna narrow it
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: down even further, find the best bets we can make.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: As I mentioned, I'm from the Action Network. We are
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: a sports betting media company that focuses on providing the
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: best in tools, data research analysis for new and old
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: sports betters. Simon is not old, but he is an
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: old time sports better. Good afternoon, my friend. That's why
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: you have to enjoy the wins. Look at us sitting
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: here a week later, from all three of our teams
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: winning to all three of our teams losing. It's uh
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: referring of course, to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Chicago Bears,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: for you and me respectively, and for Matt Mitchell the
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. I think that had to be douglast one
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: right on Sunday night and Monday night took some mellowtone,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: and I was asleep by ten o'clock. I have no
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: idea what happened in the world after then, because what
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: I'm realizing, I just feel better all throughout the day
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: when I'm asleep, maybe an hour earlier. If I'm asleep
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: by ten, I wake up the next day, I'm so
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: much more productive. I'm so much more alert, I'm so
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: much more active. When I'm not the next day, I'm
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: just dragging. I'm like, I'm getting old and I need
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: more sleep. You two old, You're just an old man.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Well you missed two great games. Uh. The Seattle was
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: a great game, great backdoor cover. I mean, we've had
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: a great primetime game. So that was just back and forth.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Just insanity. That Tennessee Tis Bills game where either team
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: winning or losing. It's like you, you kind of you're
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: kind of not a fault. It's like you needed a
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: little bit of luck to win that game, and just
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: luck broke Tennessee's why I'm so frustrated right now, because
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: we've talked about this, you and I, Simon. It's a
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: strange year. For betting. So far, there's been a few
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: two of the past three weeks where favorites have just crushed.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: And as you know, I will bet every weekend with
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: my body. Matt and I have talked about in the
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: podcast before. Oftentimes I will overrule him and make what
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: I think are the sharp bets on the sharp sides,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: and then for the past few years it's always one.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: And this year I'm overruling him consistently and he's getting annoyed.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: And this past weekend he liked every favorite and all
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Sunday all he did was text me about we'd be
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: three and one if we chose my picks, we'd before
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: and one. If we chose my picks, we'd be five
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: and one. If we chose my picks, we'd be seven
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: and one. Because is all he did was but the
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: favorites all of the size, which I hated, and hey,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: I feel like that's just it's bad form. After three
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: years of riding my tail to all of a sudden
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: be on one Sunday when things are going well to
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: be texting me about how great you are. Yeah, public
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: is king right now? Chat. Uh, we're living in day
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: ina ere. I'm getting dm S guys telling me I'm
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: terrible my job and they could do what I do.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: All you need to do is take the favorites money
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: lines and you're good to go. So I don't think
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: people will realize need to the sports betting world. These
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: are kind of flukey weeks the sports books. We hear
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: them whine and we hear them complaining. As if any
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: of us feel sorry for any of them. We don't. Uh,
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: but that's rare for them to get butchered like that.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Back to back weeks. Um tough week for me too.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: I tried doing a money line round robin. That ain't happened.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Every favorite is winning covering uh. Thinking our survivor pool,
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: the only ten people got knocked out, ten people that
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: didn't send pics like, no one's losing survivor. Uh, it's
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: it's a wonky you're so far Yeah, I eked by,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: by the way, with the Steelers in my survivor pool
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: this week. You we we collectively had the Colts will
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: narrow it down on Thursday for that. Let's get to
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: the slate we'll talk about. As Signmon says, the bet
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: you must make, we may get to a hornet's nest.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: We may get to a big balls. We'll see if
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: we do that today or Thursday. It's always a mystery.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Thursday night burn Burner Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns. Teddy
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: covers and the Denver Broncos who are covering less and less.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Their flaws have been revealed. Traveling to the Cleveland Browns,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: who got stomped, absolutely stomped in a game where I
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: thought this was a smash smash smash spot for the Browns.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Baker looked out of sorts even though we ended game well. Uh,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Nick Chubb is out. Kareem Hunt's got hurt. What happened
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: to this Browns team? I feel terrible for Browns fans.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: They had all these nice, shiny new toys coming to
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: the season. The defense, they'd spend money, built it back up.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: All offense had two of the best running backs of football,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: and Baker doesn't really been asked to do you much
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: because he had Landuring Odell. With those two running backs injuries,
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: the Browns just got crushed by injuries. So cream Hunt,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: I think it's three weeks now he's gonna put on
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: the IRR. Their cornerback situation is not improving. Ugly ugly,
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: ugly that was That was one of my worst bets
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: by far this weekend. Um. I mean just felt just
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: from the get go, you felt like you're on the
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: wrong side. Um so, Mom, I would love the Browns here,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: just a great bounce back spot at home short week.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: But the injuries. We just talked about it, and I
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: know Denver has their issues. I saw Patrick Shartain there,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: the guy they drafted to play cornerback, was playing wide
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: receiver for them a couple of snaps last week. I mean,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Denver has got real issues with the wide receiver position.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: And you know, Teddy, it wasn't so much I was
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: fading then with the Raiders last week. I just thought
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: that the Raiders were just a more complete team playing
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: against you know, playing down against the team in Denver.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: This is a fair matchup with this Denver team. Now
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: with the Browns so injured, and I think Baker is
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: kind of I don't not describe it. It's like one
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: week you hear it's partially torn. The next week they're
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: saying it's fully torn. I mean it's we don't really
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: know what his injury. Injury is on his option, not
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: his throwing shoulder. The other shoulder. But man, if this
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: this is like a real thing like this, this guy
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: is one good arm um. He's always a play away
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: from being hurt. And then case Keenom's coming in. So
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: this non we're still sitting at three and a half
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: of your book with the broncos. I have no issue
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: taking that. As we was sitting on Tuesday, Um, Teddy
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: covers he's been bad of late. It hasn't been an underdog,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: and we we like Teddy taking him in his position
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: as an under talk. So three and a half that
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: is an underdog. This this is when we pounce. So
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: as long as you're you're getting that hook above the three,
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: I feel comfortable taking it, just because as we sit
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: here on Tuesday, the information we're getting it feels like
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: it's me a game time decision for Baker. So I
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: do see this number coming down. If it is, Baker
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: is out, So I would take that three and a
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: half all you can. It's gonna be tough. I'm seeing
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: a lot. I'm seeing a lot of threes right now
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: across the board. Um our friends at fan Duel are
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: at three. No, actually, I'm seeing a pretty even mixed
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: three and a half and don't hate the three. It's
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: like you're if you're in a state where you only
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: can get the FanDuel line at three. I don't hate it.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: We we just love the hook here. I mean we've
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: been saved by a couple of times and three and
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: a half, so it's not ideal. But at this matchup,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: if it's a backup in case Kingdom with a banged
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: up Brown's team with no. No. Number one running back, yeah,
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: I like the value on Denver. This next game, oh
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: my god, it has the makings of so much fun.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans. Right now, the Titans
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: are five and a half point underdogs. This game opened
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: with the Titans as four and a half point underdogs.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: So very quickly since the Monday night game last night
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: we're recording this Tuesday afternoon, the money has poured in
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: on the Chiefs. Let me give you my quick take
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: on this similar spot to me as the Titans last night.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: They are a live dog when they're at home with
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: a relatively big number playing against superior competition. Yeah, but
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: even last night, Tannehill just does not look right this year.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: He did not play good in that game that the
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: X factors. Just Derrick Henry, he is on a historical page.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: I think they're saying he's on pace for two thousand
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: food yards rushing and uh three touchdowns rushing, like he
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: would get seven with the seventeen game season, even if
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: it was a sixteen game season. He's on pace for
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: two thousand eighty eight yards. And there was also something
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: I read this morning. Kendall Baker, who writes the sports
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: newsletter for Axios, had a stat that Derrick Henry is
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: on pace if he continues with where he's going now
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: to break Emmett Smith's Russian record by the time he
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: is thirty four. And like, I'm never a big fan
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: of on pace over the you know, length of a career,
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: because who knows what can happen. But it wasn't asking
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: for something outrageous given what he's done in the first
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: few years of his career. And Emma Smith was thirty
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: five when he did it. Yeah, Emmett, you look at
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: him and Smith, he looks like common man compared to
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Derrick Henry. Derek's fifty looks like he's running four to forty.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, we've never seen anything like it. He is
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: a freeze. So like you just talked about, this is
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: a good number. We take kind of sea here and
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: that the only fear is that they have no cornerbacks.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: The Chiefs are gonna eat away at that. But with
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Derrick Henry against orbably the worst run defense and all
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: football and Kannas City Chiefs, you gotta feel pretty good.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, Washington was in that game. It was thirteen
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: and ten a halftime, and then Taylor Ioke he turned
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: back into a pumpkin. He just fell apart like that.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: That kid is not a good quarterback. I think Daniel
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: is better than that kid. I think Daniel was a
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: top you know, twenty quarterback, top fifteen. That kid's not
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: a starter. So we like this number, I don't we'll
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: maybe we'll get to it on Thursday. Will be one
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: of our favorite bets if it keeps going, Like if
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: we get this up the six and a half again,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: like we talked about Tennessee. Once I got the six
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: and a half, the value shifted Tennessee. So the same
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: thing goes here. If we can get a better number,
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: I'd be happy because that secondary is ugly for the Titans.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: That is a bad, bad secondary. Josh Allen, he was
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: hitting guys wide open all game long. So it's a
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: little scary with that with the injuries. But this Chief's team,
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: we like to fade him off the cover it's worked
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: out for so this is a good position to take
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Tennessee here, what do you have this game power rated at?
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: I thought it was gonna opened. I had a four
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: four and a half, a fairy number of the books
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: opened it. But they must have just got hit by
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: so much public money right away. They just moved the
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: right to the five and a half. So we'll see
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: the way trends. I do think you're gonna get value
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: on it. But you know, I like to wait on
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: these numbers. And I get a six, six and a half,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: That's that's a key number. Yeah, we're gonna wait on
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: that one. We're gonna let that one. We're gonna let
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: that one cook. We're gonna let a bake little, let
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: it do the things, let it grow all those things.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: New York Jets at New England Patriots. The New England Patriots,
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: who lost a heartbreaker against the Cowboys in over time,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: are now six and a half point favorites, with the
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: New York Jets visiting the New York Jets. Yeah, yeah,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: I'm better right now. So I'm probably the wrong guy
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: to ask about this Patriots team. I I my two
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: biggest bet last week, We're the Raiders and the Patriots.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: I love the Patriots. Last week, I love the under
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: in that game and feeling good heading to the fourth quarter.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Cover was looking good, the under was looking good. I'll
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: blew up in my face with him five minutes. Uh
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: that that was a costly lost for me because I
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: I just love the number last week with Dallas got
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: up to four or four and a half and the
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: back down the three and a feel it's just a
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: good number for the Patriots. But man, that that Cowboys
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: team is storic six and oh against the spread there,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: They're incredible this year. Now for this game, this is
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: another one you might as well wait this is I'm
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: seeing a lot of books. Uh what does Fandel have
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: it at six and a half for seven six and
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: a half, So you can wait on this one. Um
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: seeing a lot of Sharper books, off shore books up
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: to seven and a half at this point, wait for
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: the seven if you want to get that at Fandel,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: because I think I'll get there at some point. Because
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: this is a teaser game. People like, you know, they
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: why wouldn't you tease the Patriots at home against this
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Jets team were the last time they played. I mean
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: he what he throw four interceptions? Three interceptions? Just remember
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Zack Wilson completely melted down the last time the Patriots played, So,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: uh could be a trap game. The books are laying
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: here for people. They're gonna try to get all this
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: money back from last week. This is this is a
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: game I circled where I immediately thought myself, I love
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: the Patriots money line. So I had to take a
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: step back because it's like, oh man, we talked about
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: you kind of have to throw these these stats out
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: of Belichick with Brady, It's it's kind of a new error,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: so which I love Belichick. Aainst rooky quarterbacks can say
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: you got a little lucky against Houston that come back,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: and that was a rookie quarterback and not a very
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: good one. No, no, So there there are some issues
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: with this team. I mean, they got out out I
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: don't even remember the artis exactly, but Dallas probably had
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: two hundred more yards altogether and it was just a
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: flukey game there, and they should have won that game.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: Last week. So could we could be getting some good
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: value here on the jet, especially if this gets to
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: the plus seven. So on another line I had been
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: waiting taking in when it gets to a better number.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: The next game on the board, Carolina Panthers at New
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: York Giants. The Giants got dusted the last couple of weeks.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: Andrew Thomas was out again. As soon as we started
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: talking about how great Andrew Thomas is the left tackle
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: for the Giants, how great Daniel Jones has improved, how
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: much he's improved. Um, this team is starting to come
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: together and look like a real football team. Andrew Jones
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: has concussed. I mean Daniel Jones get concussed. He's out
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: next week plays terrible. Andrew Thomas out versus Cowboys injured
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: again the next week. This team is getting slack um,
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: and all of a sudden they got the Panthers. Who
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: Sam Donald like talk about two teams that it was
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: easy to have a read on right between Sam Donald
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: doing so well, Daniel Jones improving. Now everybody looks like
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: they're learning how to play football again. Yeah, feel like
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: none of us ever believed in Daniel Jones though, Like
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: that that was a great win with the Saints, but
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: he just he's a flash. He's a flash on the fan.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: He has great moments and then he just is bad
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: again for three or four games. Uh, I don't know.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to do with this game, of course,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Like I like the Giants and I leaned towards them.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: They're the home dog that they're gett they're gonna get
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: it two and a half maybe a three. Sam Donald
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: is just so terrible at certain points, like his interceptions
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: are just bad, and he can't stop turning the ball over,
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: like he's making rookie mistakes that he shouldn't be making
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: in a fifth, six year player. So I don't know,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: like this is one of these I'll wait on. Maybe
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: I'll have a better opinion on Thursday. But as we
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: sit here right now, I just don't like either side
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: because it's just so bross. So they moved to three.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: I'll like the Giants a lot more because that's a
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: good number for just two bad teams that both of
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: them rely on their defense. Like this will be one
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: of these games where I'd love the under if both
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: these quarterbacks and turn it over so much. So it
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: could be one of these games, I'll take an ugly
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: over and I'll just take the dog at home. We
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: had no skin in the game on the from a
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: contest or best five perspective on the Panthers and the Vikings,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: I had teasers us. So I got really lucky with
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: that backdoor. So that past Sam Donald made on fourth
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: down from the four yard line, incredible past. Where did
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: that come from? And then and then he has followed
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: it up with this great fade to d J Moore
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: on another fourth down that those were Those were professional,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: high caliber quarterback throws. If I'm if I'm Carolina, I'm
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: getting the guy that can hypnotize someone in the office today,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: and I'm gonna hypnotize every downs fourth down and you're
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: gonna have an all Pro at a quarterback in Sam Donald.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: He can only play good on fourth down. The guy
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: is not wired right. Wow, that's a really good idea.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: Coaches should do that. I wonder if players would actually
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: LEAs submit to that. Like some look, some guys might
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: only be great when they're under pressure and everything is
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: flailing around them. In fact, and he's one of those people,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: like he really couldn't hit a guy wide open in
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: the middle of the field on like an easy third
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: and seven. On its third fourth and seven, he's sitting
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: guys twenty five yards down the field, perfect ball. It's
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: Sam Donald. Something is just not right there. Speaking of
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: hitting guys, we have what all of a sudden is
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: a Marquis matchup, Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens. The Bengals
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: right now are the six point underdogs, so the Ravens
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: are favored by six. Huge swing in this line. The
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: look aheadline on this I think was minus ten. Um.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: And look, we love the Lions. This past week, we
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: thought this was a team that that was playing competitively. Um,
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: Jared Goff we thought kind of didn't know how bad
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: he was and was playing a little bit above his
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: skill set. I think we were a little concerned about
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: the Bengals offensive line, and we just thought it would
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: be a more competitive game. But Joe Burrows just the
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: guy's got swag. He's got total swag. Yeah. I loved
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: it for a letdown spot too, just because of this
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: game right here, Like I felt like they'd be looking
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: ahead for this matchup, because I know this is one
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: of these games that if you're gonna win the division,
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: you have to beat the Ravens. And you're right. I
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: mean Joe he does stupid picks every now and then,
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: like he still shows his age being a second year quarterback,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: but that connection with him and Jamar Chase is incredible.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: Like I was one of the idiots that I didn't
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: like that they drafted Jamar Chase just because I thought
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: they didn't need to shr up that offensive line. It
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter. The guy's getting crushed back there. He's gonna
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: hit every game, but he's still popping up. But Jamaar
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: Chase is better than any offensive lineman they would have
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: taken there, so that that's definitely a miss by me.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: But it's still worries and when that Joe's taking so
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: many hits. Um, But yeah, you love Like I wanted
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: to give this out as my Simon says, play at seven,
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: but now it sounded six and a half of FanDuel
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: don't love it as much. I really liked it at
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: seven and seven and a half. Um, of course we
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: take that. We we take Joe here and a divisional
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: matchup against the Ravens team that they've been playing way
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: above their head. Um. They have nineteen starters out from
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: the beginning of the season. Two injuries. That's the highest
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: number and it's ahead of the lines I believe for
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: the most injuries to their their fifty three. So it's
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: it's hard to go against Lamar like we love them
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: last week against the Chargers. Matchup wise, this is a
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: better matchup where the Bengals have improved their defense and
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: now they have the weapons on offense to do things.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: So I like it. Man, I got We'll see how
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: you feel about you had, but above six, this feels
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: like a good number to take take the Bengals in
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: our contests. But um, as long as it stays above
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: the six, if it gets if it gets the five
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: and a half six, I don't love it as much.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: But at six and a half seve, I feel like
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: we're getting good value. What do you have a power
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: rated at right now? I had it at seven. But
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: like again, I'm a little inflated. Just on the Ravens
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: at home. I just people can notice a pattern here.
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: I've always bet the Ravens at home. I'm not there's
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: nothing crazy about it. Just Lamar has been good to
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: me in his career. At home. He covers for me,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: So I do skew towards that. But Joe Burrow has
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: been a covering machine. He covers and you're you're giving
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: him a full touchdown, full six and a half. It's
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: hard not to take him in this position. Yeah, this
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: is such a tricky one. It is we I love
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: the Ravens. Last week, Um, you and I had you're
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: definitely yeah, like you had a We had a long
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: conversation about it on Sunday morning when we were finally
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: deciding on what the five best were. And uh, it's
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: one of the few times where I was adamant about
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: a team. And we put the Ravens in at minus
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: two and a half, and immediately it just felt like
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: the right side. You know, the Chargers were due for
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: a regression, and it just felt so natural. You gotta
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: wonder if the Ravens are due for aggression now, right,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: just a couple of weeks of incredible, incredible play and
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: a miracle come back and then just a fantastic, fantastic
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: win against the Chargers. I don't know why I don't
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: have a read on this. Um, We'll think of it
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: this way. What would this line be if they had
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: lost that Chiefs game, so they didn't get that fumble,
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: they will lost that game. And if that Lions game
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: they didn't win, that one will just be three and
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: a half. So because of two little weird bounces, you're
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: getting full three points in this matchup. That's why it's
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: like it's it's scary taking it. And I'm one of
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: these people. I do overvalue the Ravens because I'm they're
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: playing at home. But that's the reason why you have
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: to kind of take this number. You're you're getting a
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: line that's just inflated, simply off two bounces of in
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: two different games. Well, that's a really good way to
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: look at it. I try. I didn't think about it
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: that way. All right, you know what I'm in Baby?
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: Should we make it the Simon says says when Simon says,
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: I feel like I would get the seven, all right,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: So let's wait. Let's say, like Simon says, bet this
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: if it gets the seven. Yeah, if you're if you
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: got a book at seven ticket, Okay, Atlanta Falcons at
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins. I don't even want to talk about the
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: Falcons and the Dos and the Dolphins. This is because
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: this is the Corner TV game right now. Looking at
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: the Action Network data, This has the fewest bets of
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: any game, any game on the board, the fewest bets.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: So the Falcons right now are visiting the Dolphins. There
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: are two and a half point favorites on the road. Wow,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: mm hmmm, are you kidding me? Come on, don't you
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: love it? Are you fucking kidding me? Simon, we're gonna
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: we're gonna have to go from Simon says, We're gonna
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: have to walk right into the fucking Hornets nest and
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: beat the Miami Dolphins. I'm walking to a fucking hornets nest,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: all right, I'll be my companion on everyone. Hey, everyone's
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: still in the same exact way to do. This is horrible.
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: This is gross. They just lost to the Jaguars in London.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: This is a bad team in Miami Atlanta coming off
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: a bye week. Oh, it's like it feels like it's
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: too good to be true. Like they're giving us a
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: little gift here the gambling gods. Um, everyone's gonna bet
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: in Atlanta. Only pros will be take in Miami. Two
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: is not as bad as he looked in that game,
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: Like he had little moments where he looked rusty, like
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: getting played in a couple of weeks. Love Miami, Love
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: Miami in this bounceback spot at home. After that kind
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: of loss, um, I will be on an island though,
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: So I have no Oh, this is the same thing
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: where I me and you're gonna, we're gonna it's gonna
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: come to Sunday and i'mnna be like, I can't do
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: it to each other. I can't make you put this
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: one in the contest and Miami is gonna win by
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: twenty points. So these are one of the few lines
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: I bet early on because if you got the three
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: at a couple of books for just a little bit,
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: and I bet it, and now it's back down to
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: two and a half, So if it gets back to three,
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: I'll be on Miami. Listen, You're not gonna have to
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: make me do anything. Like almost as soon as I
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: started thinking about it and looking at it, I realized,
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: this is just one. You gotta hold your nose right
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: the same reason like again that Jets one sucked, But
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: I'll take three and a half with the Jets every
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: time against Matt Ryan and make him have a drive
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: at the end of the game to win the game,
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: which he really can do. So it's the same kind
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: of situation here. It's people are coming in really high
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: on Matt Ryan now and I feel like we're buying
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: the dip on Miami. Yeah, I agree, buying the dead
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: going low. It's like getting crypto. When it was at you,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: Washington football team at Green Bay Packers, Packers are nine
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorites. Aaron Rodgers put on display
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: against the Bears and then uh, yelling to the crowd,
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: I still own you. Was as gut wrenching, heartbreaking, mean
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: spirited as anything that's ever been said to anyone in
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: Soldier Field, on or off the field. And there have
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: been some ugly, ugly things said at Soldier Field, I
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: can promise you. The chefter tweet popped in my mind,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: the assault tweet. That's what that was. I was assault.
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: It was like, honestly, you had to call the cops.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: It was just it was so mean. How do you
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: bet against this Packers team right now? And this this
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: is a tough one, right because this Washington football team,
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: like you said, they look a little bit like a mess.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: They held down for the first half and then got
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: blown out. And the Packers just keep looking good even
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: without anyone in the defensive secondary. Yeah, uh pros Joe's
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: game now, by the way, that's on the Packers, money
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: on the on the Washington football team. And we talked Sunday, Um,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: we were both high coming on the Bears, and I
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: told you about just a bunch of pros I talked
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: to coming heavy on Green Bay and there was a
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: bunch of injuries to the D line of the Bears,
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: and I was gonna make a difference in that game.
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: We saw they never really got to Rogers and eventually
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: they're Aaron kind rallied the troops. Green Bay took a
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: ten point lead, they never gave it back to the Bears.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: So same kind of situation here. We have a Green
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: Bay team that you just kind of tapped on it
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: that they shouldn't be winning and covering all these games
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: like they are. They've kind of gotten a little bit lucky.
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: A lot of us have dabted them along the way.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: We just don't think they're as good as they appear.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: But man, Washington is just a dumpster fire. Um, I'm
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: not sure that enough people really know the whole story
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: with the Sean Taylor incident where Dad or they retired
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: Sean Taylor's jersey last week, Um the football team and
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: it was pretty much luckily I was thrown together in
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: two weeks and it's kind of deflection from the whole
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: email scandal. Now this steam is like I feel like
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: there are enemy number one in the media. Everyone just
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: hates them. Their own fans hate them. There not that
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: they're falling apart, but like that second half, they just
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: have no quarterback play and Terry mclaurin's hurt, Curtis Samuel's hurt,
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: and their running backs hurt. Um, it's it feels like
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: it's too much for this Washington team. So they're fully
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: healthy with all their weapons and maybe Fits was back,
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: we would love this game. I mean, give me ten
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: ten a half all day of the week, without all
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: those without all that stuff. I'm not doing it. I'm
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: not putting any more money on this Washington team until
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: they showed me. So I'm happy to take this under
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: ten points. Take Green Bay here, Yeah, you'll need a
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: little bit of elect to cover that number, but you
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: have above of covering it. This is just all slengthy
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: towards a big favorite here with Green and Bad. Even
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: though there's gonna be a couple of dogs, big dogs
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: be like this week, this is not one of them. Wow,
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: it's so rare to hear someone who does this professionally
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: say I want the team that's going to be the
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: double digit favorite. Well, I mean, we you heard before.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: It convinced me. I was talking Darren and he wanted
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: to take Houston. I told him stay away, like you
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: take the culture to stay away. That's that's a trap
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: line for that game. Literally, I know that every big
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: dog was a trap line. It didn't matter. I mean,
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: it was just one of those weeks. So it is
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: scary that. Um, I love this line so much for
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Green Bay because we just talked about some of these
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: big dogs. They're gonna come through this week. This Vegas
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: is not gonna keep losing all this money. It's all
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: these favorites. And now a word from our friends at
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  Speaker 1: the show, all right. Let's talk about the Philadelphia Eagles.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders. The Eagles now three
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: and a half point dogs, massive, massive pros Joe's game.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: And this is when you one hundred percent flip the
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: script and bet on the Philadelphia Eagles. Yeah, we're not
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: gonna have fun. This is not going to enjoy enjoying.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, anyone that bet the Eagles Thursday night, that
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: was not fun. That was such an awful sweat, but
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: such a beautiful one at the same time, it was
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: never in doubt. As they said again Chad touched on it.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: This is a pros versus Joe's game. We are gonna
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: start seeing a pattern here. Whatever game I think Stucky
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: tweted out. Whoever is the underdog in the Oakland I
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: mean the Las Vegas radio matchup. You just take the underdog,
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: that's who's gonna cover. So it Las Las Vegas and
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: then their dog and they'll cover. They're the favorite or
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: they're playing against it's gonna cover. We love it at
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: three and a half. This is gonna go down to
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: three and a lot of books pros are gonna come
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: in on this number. The Eagles team, they are one
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: of one of these teams where I am like, I'm
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: all in on fade them first half. I faded them
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: last week first half. Um. I think the only time
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: it's burned me was the Kansas City game that might
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: have been closed first half. But they're they're not. They
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: just don't come out with a good game plan. Sirianni
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: is a bad coach, but we've seen it with this
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: this Las Vegas team. They they they kind of play
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: up to level their competition. So we don't have that
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: great of a team here in the Eagles, but we
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: have an offense that can move the ball and we're
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: playing against a pretty banged up Las Vegas team. And again,
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: I feel so lucky last week with Eagles covering the
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: six and a half, I mean, came down to two
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: point conversion. We got it. It feels like playing a
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: little bit of dynamite here. But yeah, Chad, if if
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: you can me on Sunday said I wanted to spe
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: one of our five and it's three and a half.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: I love that number for this Egos team. This is
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: just a close, close game for these two teams. I
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: feel like we've already got at least three games that
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: we love Bengals. If it gets to seven Miami at
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half, Eagles plus three and a half,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be one of those weeks where like the
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: teams we bet on are the teams that currently or
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: historically are the teams that make you the sickest, and
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: we'll have some favorite sprinkling there. Like again, I feel
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: like by Sunday I might put out Vincy on that
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: Green Bay pick. But yeah, as we said earlier in
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: the week, I always go towards dogs. There's just there's
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: just always going to be value on these teams where
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: the public is feeling so good this week. Like again,
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: all these guys think they're experts just because every favorite
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: money line parlay hit. Uh, it just doesn't work that way.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: So that's why it might look like ugly dogs. But
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: I feel like I love this to me was just clarity,
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: Like as soon as I saw it, It's like I know,
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: on this next game, Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams,
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: you're gonna say to me, we gotta take the Lions
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: at at plus fifteen, and I'm going to say to you,
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: get your head straight. That's a terrible idea. This Lions
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: team is lost. The coach was calling out Jared Goff
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: this week. They've reached the tipping point of Okay, we
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: can be competitive and maybe sneak one out. They've lost
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: too many games in heartbreaking fashion. I think they're on
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: the other side of that now. I think they just
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: know they're bad and they're gonna need a lot of luck,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: love and luck to find a win. And it's not
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: going to be against the Rams in Los Angeles, not
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: even by fifteen point spread. Yeah, they look lost. And
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: if anyone's gonna know all of Jared Goff's weaknesses, it's
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: gonna be Sean McVeagh. This is like literally the worst
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: matchup he could possibly have. So I'll probably end up
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: being on the lines. But no, we'll not be giving
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: this pick out to anyone. This is uh, this is disgusting.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: So I might be on the ramps. That's a lot
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: of That is a lot of points. I mean, covering
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: two touchdowns is scary, but I can't fault you for
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: it like that's this is uh? This is a bad
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: matchup for this lines team. They have no no one
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: in their secondary. You have Stafford in a revenge game.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: You don't think he's gonna want to put up points
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: against his old team. Like not not a not a
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: good matchup at all for the lines team. Terrible. But
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: let's get to the most important one. Chicago Bears at
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This line has moved up two and
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: a half points opened to ten, it's now at twelve
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: and a half. Please give me a million reasons to
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: at least not bet the Bears. I don't have to
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: bet the Bucks. Just tell me why I shouldn't bet
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: the Bears. Please, I'm fucking begging you. So the Bears
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: can only run the ball. They're playing against the number
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: one run defense. Isn't it that simple? Yes? Alright, great,
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: that's all that's all you need? Why right now the
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: bets are on the Bucks. The money is on the
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: Bears the same reason we took the Eagles last week.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: The Buccaneers don't have a good enough secondary to be
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: fired by this many points against anyone. But it's I
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: don't know what we're gonna get out of fields like
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: the offense and Naggie draws up. You guys were looking
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: great against the package. You're dominating in every way, and
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: he changes it up. He switches what's working. He doesn't
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: keep going back to what's working. I don't know, it's
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: it's really hard to take the Buccaneers. It's such a
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: big number here, um, But just these two different styles,
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: it's like the worst matchup the Bears could possibly have. Uh.
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: They're like, again, you never know what fields. He could
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: show up in this game and have a great passing
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: good day. But that's the only way they win this
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: game or cover the number. I should say, like, the
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: only way you can get back to other should even
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: keep this closer if he can pass it, because Brady
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: Brady is just cooking right now. Like their offense, even
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: without Gronk, they haven't really missed a beat. Um. So yeah,
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: this is a pro game. I guess the pros came
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: in on the Stormer just because it's all like the
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: third team. That's just way too many points for this
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: fucking Ears team. But I would never make this one
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: of my best five taken the Bears. You can tell
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: you that much. So Uh, two things. One Saturday afternoon
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: and I'm driving to the city. Had to go to
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: a book party for our friend Seth Wickersham, who has
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: been in the podcast and wrote the great book about
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: the Patriots, Styna Steve It's better to be feared out now. Um.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: And I'm talking to a buddy on the way down
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: from Chicago, and we, of course we're talking about the
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Bears for a minute, and we're talking about how we've
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: never seen a defensive backfield. Oh wow, as many receivers
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: to be as wide open as we've seen from the
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: Bears this year, Like they have taken social distancing to
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: an art form in the way they are playing defense
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: in the backfield. And then the next day I'm at
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: home watching the game and the text chain with my
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: buddies from Chicago is so long and so violent and
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: so aggressive. Are you guys must have been feeling so
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: good though that first quarter or use the first half,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: you guys were winds. I think felt amazing, and it
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: got so aggressively bad in the second half I couldn't.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: I actually I didn't even open the texts until like
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: it was seven. Like, you know your phone, how many
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: messages you have seventeen text messages and I just ignored
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: them all until the next day. I could not I
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: could not engage in this conversation. Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: The Houston Texans are seventeen point underdogs to the Arizona Cardinals.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: I can't see you said there's gonna be a big
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: dog that we love. There's only three games left to
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: talk about. This is the only big dog left. I
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: can't see how this could be one that you're feeling
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: great about for any reason other than the number itself
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: and the hope that Trod Taylor is coming back. We
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: love this number. If the Rod Taylor comes back. Obviously,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: if it's David Mills, whatever, game like, I'll bet on it,
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: but I'm not gonna a lot on it. If the
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: Rodd's back, I love it. Uh. Houston was playing really
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: well the first two weeks with him running it. They're
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: running like a pistol offense, kind of a run option offense.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: I just love that style. And against this Cardinals team
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: that can be ran on, that's nice, Like, that's that's
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: really good. You don't have the kind of situation where
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: you're hoping the Cardinals kind of overlooked this team, like
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: they have to be feeling great right now. The Cardinals
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: are undefeated. They just blew out the Browns. Now they're
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: coming home playing against aarably the worst, one of the
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: worst teams of football. Man, give it to me. If
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: the Rodd's back and he's playing, I love this number.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: If it's David Mills, I'm passing. So I bet a little.
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: In the sevent team, I'm happy to bet it again
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: when it comes down a trout is the quarterback. As
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: long as it's above fourteen, I think you're getting a
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: really good value here. One of my favorite television shows
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: of all time is The West Wing, and it was
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: a joke amongst the cast and the West Wing that
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: Martin Sheen could not remember anybody's name. It didn't matter
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: if it was Aaron Sorkin who created the show. Alison
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: Janny won Emmy's and went on to win an Oscar Like.
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: It wasn't anything personal. It's just Martin Sheen couldn't remembers
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: anybody's name. Is that my problem? You are the Martin
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: Sheen of this podcast. You are beloved you, isn't it.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: You are a force of nature, But you to this day.
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: I cannot remember that the Raiders are now in Las
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: Vegas and that the guy's name is Davis Mills. What
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: I say David again? Yeah? I got like ten David's
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: in my life, all right. So if I do say Davis,
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: that's a win. Well you got there eventually. So here's
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: the question. Though we don't know if Tyrod Taylor is
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: playing yet, do you bet a little bit on the
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: Texas now and the hope that you think he's gonna play?
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: Speaking of names, it's Tarad Okay, get it right? Who
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: are you? Who are you to bring it back to me? Uh? Yeah,
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: that's what I'm saying. People have to bet it now
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: like you can. You can. You can risk it with me,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: get the seventeen and then just buy out later. But
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: I love this number if he comes back. This's just
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: way too many points. This Cardinals team, Yeah, they're great.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: They're electric. I mean, would they be the Jags by
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: twelve points or eleven points? Like there's They're just there
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: are openings for teams to be able to put up
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: points against this Cardinals team, like that Brown's game. Everything
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: was hitting right. They're just their defense, their offense was
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: just flawless. In that game. It won't be that way
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: this week. So you're giving me that many points with
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: a good quarterback and Trod, I'll take it, all right. Well,
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: we'll give it a look. Indianapolis called at San Francisco
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: forty nine. There's the San Francisco forty Niners, three and
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: a half point favorites. I saw a tweet from a
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: beat writer for the Niners, and I apologize, I can't
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: remember who it was. Within the span of like six days,
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: they're starting quarterback went down, their kicker pulled his groin
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: during warmups. They lost three different running backs to freak injuries.
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: They lost a cornerback to a freak injury. I've said
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: it before, no one has more fun playing with his
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: roster in desperation than Kyle Shanahan. But I don't know
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: how you bet on a three and a half point
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: favorite team against the Colston that is just trying to
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: look better. Yeah, and again, Carson, he connected a lot
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: of deep balls, but he wasn't have a great day.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: You just had a couple of deep bass that looked
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: like old vintage wins Ugly Like you just said, are
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: we really about to check Trey Lance? And minus three
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: and a half minus four at home. I don't know
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: about that. Like Trey, Lance hasn't really earned that respect
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: yet for many of us. So Cold Steam, you know,
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: this could be one of these games where everyone's thinking
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: under I like the over in a prime time spot,
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: which is rare for me. But I like both these
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: offenses have put up points in these kind of matchups.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: And it's both kind of speed on all offenses against
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: two defenses that are a little slow, and you know,
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: Chad just kind of touched on it. It's a lot
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: of points. Um, three and a half. I can see
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: why it came down from four just because first glance,
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: I merely I'm drawing towards the cold So not one
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: of not one of my favorites as we sit here
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday. Um, but yeah, you know me, I I
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: love this Cold Steam. I like Carson Wentz. You're giving
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: me Carson with four points or three and a half
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: points against a rookie quarterback making his first start in primetime,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: I'm happy to fade him. Jonathan Taylor playing really, really
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: well and really well. I think it's disrespectful to say
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: he's playing out of his head. I think he's playing
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: the way he could play like you saw it last year.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: He can catch the ball, he can run with the
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: ball all he runs with power, he runs with speed,
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: he can find cracks in the offensive line. He knows
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: where his blockers are going to be. I think he's
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: just I think he's really good running back. And they
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: got t Y Hilton back, which I think is a
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: big reason why all of a sudden, this offense just
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: looked better. It did, and it just looked like they
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: look like a complete team, which is what you're looking
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: for when you're playing bad teams. You're just looking for
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: a team that can play and all the sides of
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: the ball. So yeah, I just see a letdown spot
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: here for this defense just going against you know, Shannon's
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: had a week prepare, They're just coming off the bye week.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: I can just see the forty Arands putting up points,
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: but I can see the Colts keeping up with them.
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: Like you just talked about, they just have a lot
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: of weapons right now on this offense. Well, look, you know,
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: I love Shanahan, so I it's a scary bed for me,
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: but I definitely like the Colts in this spot inunte football,
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks. The Saints are four
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorites on the road against Geno
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: Smith and the Seahawks, who completely broke my heart the
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: other night after I went to bed from a melowtone
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: and induced his because I had the Steelers at minus
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: four and a half. It looked perfect in the first half.
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: Then they made some adjustments and all of a sudden,
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: I don't want to bet this game. Are you gonna
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: give me a reason to bet this game? No? I mean,
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: the only the only thing you would love is the
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: trend of I think Gina Smith now is five and
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: one against the spread in prime time games in his
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: last six starts, So I mean, if you like trends,
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: I guess that lean starts him. But don't give me
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: a bullshit trend sample like the Saints um coming off
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: bye week playing against the Seahawk. Seen that kind of
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: gave everything in that Pittsburgh matchup and they lost. So
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: this stays at five, stays below six. God knows you're
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: taking the Saints here. This is a must win game
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: for the Saints if they want to make the playoffs
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: this year because they have a really hard schedule coming up,
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: so they kind of got to steal this one here.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: And you know, say what you want about this Saints team.
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: They haven't looked great obviously this year. Their defense has
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: been played pretty well all year, so if that's one
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: thing I can lean on, uh, And they're rushing attack
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: against this really bad run defense of the Seahawks. I
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: like it. Like it's rare for me to take prime
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: time favorites, but I do like the Saints in this position. Yep,
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: it's kind of a past for me, that's fair. But
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: I do think we've narrowed down some games. I mean, Chiefs, Titans.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: We're gonna keep an eye on Jets, Pats. We're gonna
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: keep an eye on Bengals, Ravens. We're gonna keep an
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: eye on Falcons Fins. By the way, Simon says, is Bengals, Uh,
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: if it gets to seven, the Falcons Fins is our
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: Hornets nest. So on Thursday we will do a big
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: balls better. The week Eagles plus three and a half
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: against the Raiders were like Colts forty niners starting to
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: feel more appealing to me more than I think about it.
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: So we had a lot of games talk about on Thursday.
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: We've covered Hornets, Nas, we've covered. Simon says, by the way,
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, We've got to talk about this. A lot
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: of people have requested that we bring back something in
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: the old days of the podcast. I used to have
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: bookmaker Bob Scuccion, who's a legendary bookmaker from Las Vegas.
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: He was the subject of my book The Odds, about
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: guys who've been on sports for a living. Wonderful character
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: called him Scooch. We used to call it scooch Roulette.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: We're gonna bring back the honorary scooch Roulette Pick of
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: the Week, where Simon and I have to go head
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: to head, like I'm going to choose a game, He's
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: going to choose a game, and Uh, that's it. Then,
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: like we'll tally it for the rest of the year.
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: Now I feel like we're playing with a a little skin
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: in the game. We are together, but there's a part
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: of us that is also against each other. Chad, shall
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: I play the music? Play the music, Let's play Scout.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: Time to take down the hops. When all hope is lost,
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: all that's left is relief. Let's play scooch Roulette. Scooch Roulette,
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: the Honorary Scooch Roulette. Pick me and Simon Mano Amano
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: the way it's meant to be. I'm gonna let you
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: go first. It can be any bet you want. You
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: tell me, I'm gonna go chalk. I'll take Green Bay
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: minus nine and a half. Wow before it gets to ten. Dude,
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: I did not see that coming. Oh, I know you didn't.
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: That completely throws me off. I mean, I've got to
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: be the sharp here, and you take one of your
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: ugly dogs. I'm going to be the sharp here public.
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: I'm taking the Eagles plus three and a half at
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders. Don't you put your juju on
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: my team? What are you doing? Jail? As soon as
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: I saw this, I know how Badge Dalen hurts as
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: a quarterback, but this this number feels whack you to me,
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: the same thing as the Patriots, Like you play that
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: number every time, like, yeah, the Patriots results sucked, but
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: it honestly is the right side. That's why you kind
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: of play that number. You just need a crazy fluke
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: situation not to cover it. I love that in our
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: first Scoot Roulette, I am going with the dog, the
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: ugly dog, and you're a As they say in Quentin
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: Turntino Movies a square the public wins sometime. All right, listen,
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: we're gonna come back on Thursday. We're gonna talk about
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: the games that we really love that we've narrowed down.
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: We're gonna trying about bet labs. NBA tonight starts tonight, Dude,
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: NBA starts tonight. There's so much stuff on Action Network.
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: I am so excited. You know what I'm really going
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: to be into this year, player props. I love betting
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: player props in the NBA. I don't know why I
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: like it more than the NFL, um but I love
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: betting player props in the NBA. Brandon Anderson Raheem Palmer
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: on the Action Network, both of them doing aasing jobs
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: with player props. So I'm going to be getting into that.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: Everyone check out everything on the Action Network, Simon. Very
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: good of you to pimp it. Appreciate it. We will
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: be back on Thursday. Download the podcast from Apple Podcasts,
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. It's a favorite.
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: Rate the podcast, review the podcast. You know what. We
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: had about a ten percent increase in listeners from week
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: five to week six, which means there are new people
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: listening to the podcast, which means you've got to get
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: in there people. You gotta rate it, you gotta review it,
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: you gotta subscribe, you've got to do the things that
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: make us continue to grow. We appreciate it so much.
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: That's why until Thursday, I love you