Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Bond Market Is Detaching From U.S. Policy and Looking Globally, Vogel Says

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Bond Market Is Detaching From U.S. Policy and Looking Globally, Vogel Says · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Bramowitz. Each day we
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  Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot Com. So
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: it wasn't that long ago that we were talking about
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: a possible bond market route, that all of the central
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: banks are getting more hawkish, and that bonds globally, government
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: bonds we're gonna all sell off, And now we see
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: a rally yet again. Jim Vogel, who is the interest
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: rate strategist at ft N Financial in Memphis, Tennessee, joins
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  Speaker 1: us now to explain whether this rally can continue. So, Jim,
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  Speaker 1: today we got some disappointing CPI numbers, inflation numbers. We
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: also got retail sale that were not that great, and
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: consumer sentiment also came in below expectations, and now people
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: are saying it's going to be lower for longer again.
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  Speaker 1: How much can this cause bonds to rally over the
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: near term? At Lisa is whether the curve starts flattening again.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: That was the big news out of June, and we
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: lost that in July. So far we still have a
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: steeper curve. Until we see thirties begin to pick up
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: and do better and participate fully in the rally, we're
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: not going to get back down necessarily to the tenure.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Well wait, so, so just broadening out a little bit.
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  Speaker 1: In other words, you're saying that there was this curve steepening.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: In other words, people were increasing their expectations of longer
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: term growth, of of of lower near term rates and
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: higher longer term rates, and you're not seeing that stop
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: due to these disappointing inflation numbers. Correct, So today's big
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: star on the treasury her is the seven year. It's
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: rare that the seven year is necessarily going to be
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  Speaker 1: the leading barometer of what happens next for interest rates.
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  Speaker 1: So we have got to see the thirty trade back
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  Speaker 1: below two and seven eights. So why isn't it There
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: are still lingering positions that need to get out of
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: some uh incorrect longs coming into this month, and so
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: we haven't about two weeks of not a lot of
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  Speaker 1: news for people to try to rebalance their positions. So
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: that they can participate in the long end and we
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: can perhaps see a rally there that allows us to
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: again trade the ten year back down another five basis
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: points and truly get back into rally territory as we
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: move into August. What kind of chances would you give
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: for that to happen. We're under forty percent at this
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  Speaker 1: point because the CBS story, even though it doesn't appear
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: every single day, UH is going to constantly hit the
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  Speaker 1: headlines as we approach August, particularly now that drag is
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: going to be speaking at Jackson Hall. I just wonder
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: if you can comment on something that my colleague Arcolague
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Tom King was talking about earlier that the president at
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: President Donald Trump, his barometer seems to be the stock market,
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: not the bond market. How do you come out on
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: that the bond market has detached from fiscal policy. You're
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: really basically starting in May, so I think Tom's correct them.
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  Speaker 1: The bond market is really looking globally now and not
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: focused on Washington because the general opinion about whether we
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: can get significant legislation passed in two thousand and seventeen
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  Speaker 1: has fallen off the radar. You know, earlier in the program,
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: we were talking about possible contingency plans should the US
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: come up against uh, the debt ceiling and fail to
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: pass some measure to lift the threshold. And I'm wondering,
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  Speaker 1: with that kind of political pressure, is that on your radar?
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  Speaker 1: Do you think that that is something a material risk
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: that could cause a bond market sell off that's sort
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: of unrelated to some of these broader economic indicators. Yes,
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  Speaker 1: it certainly can if you go back and you look
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: at the volatility. There are a few events over the
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: last ten years that quite matched the debt ceiling fight
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  Speaker 1: of two thousand and eleven and then the small government
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: shutdown or brief government shutdown in the fall of two
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: thousand and thirteen. Those are always going to be major
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  Speaker 1: events that cause people to pull back from treasuries, not
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: because they necessarily see long term risk, but just simply
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: they have got to have the information of how that's
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: going to resolve. And talking is keeping on the theme
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  Speaker 1: of political influence on the bond market. I also have
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  Speaker 1: to wonder right now, and we see the healthcare debate
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  Speaker 1: raging and the fact that the Senate GOP cannot get
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: a bill together that they know they can pass. Does
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  Speaker 1: this sort of remove any promise of fiscal stimulus, and
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: has the specter of fiscal stimulus been completely removed already
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: from the bond market. Other words, our bond trainor is
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: pretty much expecting nothing in terms of fiscal stimulus at
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: this point. The stock market still has about a confidence
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: that we're going to get some sort of fiscal stimulus.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: You continue to see that chatter around equities there. And
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  Speaker 1: so our view is that it's probably still somewhat in
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: the in the bond market, but not in the near term.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: And so now any impact that might improve the economy
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  Speaker 1: and therefore really have a big impact on rates would
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  Speaker 1: not occur until the second half of two thousand and eighteen,
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  Speaker 1: and the impact would be rates higher. So, in other words,
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: if there is no fiscal stimulus whatsoever, that will actually
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: put a damper on yields and they could potentially go
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: lower stay where they are more longer than people expect.
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  Speaker 1: It would certainly allow nervousness about the Fed shrinking balance
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: she to calm down a little bit. If we don't
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  Speaker 1: have a stimulus bill that looks in some sort of
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  Speaker 1: shape to pass by the middle of the fourth quarter,
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  Speaker 1: do you think everyone's prepared for that. Are they positioned
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  Speaker 1: for it? The bond market generally is. But there's so
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  Speaker 1: many things that are happening with regards to deposit growth
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  Speaker 1: and how excess reserve management will take place among the
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: in the national banking system that it's really hard to
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  Speaker 1: say that the entire balance she uh plan is fully
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: integrated into prices right now. We think the level of
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: say the tenure accurately reflects it, but in terms of
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: all the other changes that are going to take place,
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  Speaker 1: there's still a lot to learn. I want to thank
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: you very much for joining us. Jim Vogel is interest
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: rate strategist for FT and Financial joining us from Memphis, Tennessee. Well,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Jenny Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve, just finished up
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  Speaker 1: what could be possibly her last Congressional half year testimony yesterday,
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  Speaker 1: and uh what she said was largely, uh, pretty consistent
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: with what people were expecting, but there were some little
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: moments of surprise. For more context, I want to bring
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: in Bob Eisenbie's vice chairman and chief monetary economist at
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Cumberland Advisors in sarah Sota, Florida. He also was formerly
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: the director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. So, Bob,
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  Speaker 1: what was your number one takeaway from this two day testimony. Well,
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: my takeaway was that things seemed to be, as far
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: as the fform C is concerned, on track for a
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: gradual return of interest rates to a more normal position
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: and probably move on the portfolio to normalize, beginning perhaps
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  Speaker 1: in September. I think that's the most likely date at
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  Speaker 1: this juncture. Um, Well, hold on, that's actually important, right,
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  Speaker 1: So if they begin allowing some of their holdings to
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: run off starting in September, they have a pretty pretty
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  Speaker 1: determined preset course of how much the let to roll off,
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  Speaker 1: and under some estimates, that would mean that more than
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: four hundred billion dollars of securities could roll off in
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: the two years ended at the end of two Is
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: that what you're expecting. Yeah, They've they've got baby steps
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  Speaker 1: about two hundred and forty billion up through the end
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: of two thousand and eighteen. And that's really where my
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: focus is on this point in time, because we'll get
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: a pretty good sense of what the market reaction is
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: likely to be and what the Treasury does. I mean,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: it depends on whether the Treasury replaces those securities are
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: not as to what the ultimate impact would be. I
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: did find it interesting that I thought that Janet Yale
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  Speaker 1: intended to put herself in the group of people, and
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: there's a wide range of views on the f m
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  Speaker 1: C in that group of people who felt that there
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: would not be much of an impact as far as
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: treasury yields were concerned. I want to pick up on
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: something you said, because you bring in this idea of
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: the people at the Federal Reserve, you have experience with
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: the people at the Federal Reserve formerly executive vice president
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: and director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: You mentioned eighteen who's going to be at the Federal
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  Speaker 1: Reserve in that Board of Governor's table that is the
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: sixty dollar questions? Oh, come on, there's a little bit
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  Speaker 1: of inflation. Well, we we have four people right now.
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  Speaker 1: We have one new nominee uh from the Trump and
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  Speaker 1: illustration uh Stan Fisher's term is up in two thousand
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  Speaker 1: and eighteen as well, So this is going to be
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: another give us some names. Come on, we're gonna I'm
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: pushing you here. Oh well, I mean who would I
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: like to say? Well, who do you think do you
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  Speaker 1: think that Janet Yellen will get the nod. I think
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: it's questionable whether she'll get the nod or not. And
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: it's more likely we'll get some sort of a business
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  Speaker 1: person in or um, someone like a former head of
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: the Council of Economic Advisors that John Taylor. All of
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: those would be good potential people to have on the
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: board as as as potential uh the leader. Well, I
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: think John Taylor would be would be my first pick too,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: but Glenn Hubbard would be certainly right there along with
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: it in terms of someone who's a top errat economist
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  Speaker 1: and and the knows about policy and and understands policy.
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  Speaker 1: So Gary co has also been flirted. He's currently the
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: chief economist for President Trump and former CEO at Goldman Sachs.
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  Speaker 1: How do you think his influence would change the FED
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  Speaker 1: if he were chairman? You mean, um, well, I think
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: you bring a little bit more of a market's focus. Uh,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: maybe a shorter term view, because most of the people
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: on Wall Street tend to have, uh, you know, a
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: long term is the end of the day. Would you
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: be more hawks? I think that that's that's the question
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: that people are wondering. That's that's a good question and
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  Speaker 1: I don't have a good sense of where he would
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: come out on that. Uh, right now, with inflation being
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: where it is, I'm not sure what Hawckeys really means,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: because you know, we don't really have an inflation inflation
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: problem at this point. So and if the if there's
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: an inflation problem, it's that people are concerned that inflation
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: is too low. I personally don't think there's anything wrong
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: with one point four percent inflation. I think it's perhaps
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: diverting attention at this juncture and creating some potential risks
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: by attempting to keep the economy overheating. And having said that,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: the path that the f o MC has laid out
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  Speaker 1: seems to be a reasonable one at this point as
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: far as rates are concerned, at least from my perspective. Bob, earlier,
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  Speaker 1: you were saying that chair Yelling puts herself in the
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: camp not thinking that the bond roll off will the
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: balance you roll off will affect treasure yields all that much.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Do you think that they're accurate in that assessment? Well,
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: they have essentially, uh, really moderated what the total rolloff
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: would otherwise be and have taken I think a very
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: conservative view when it comes to the maturing of the securities,
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: because right now mortgage backed security paydowns have been running
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: around twenty billion a month. Uh, and obviously they're going
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: very slow on that side. Uh. And the rest of
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  Speaker 1: the securities are, you know, they're they're really taking baby
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: steps as far as I'm concerned because of the uncertainty
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: about what the actual impacts will be, both in terms
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: of impacts on interest rates, but also what if any
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: implications market responses would have for the subsequent path of
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: movements in the target rate. Bob talk about the market
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: moves or consequences that JP Morgan Chase shares down one
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: and a half percent, Morgan Stanley down one percent. Uh.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: You know, City Bank down three quarters of a percent,
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Bank of America down two percent. Today. What do you
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: take away from today's releases about banks and about investing
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: in financials. Well, financials have done very well, So there's
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: probably just a little bit of a reassessment um perhaps
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: because of concern about the extent to which regulation and
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: the FED. One of the things that Jennie Ellen talked
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: about was she was not in favor of removing removing
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: a lot of the regulations that a lot of the
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: financial institutions have been arguing for so uh you know,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: to the extent that she's for keeping a lot of
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: those regulations, that's essentially a negative as far as the
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: financials are concerned. I want to thank you very much
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: for spending time with us. Bob eisen Biss is vice
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: chairman and chief monetary economist of Cumberland Advisers. They are
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: based in Sarasota, Florida. But we got retail sales today
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: and they were not great. Retail sales unexpectedly dropped for
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: a second month in June. And not only did they drop,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: but it wasn't just autos, it was across the board.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: It's leaving a lot of people wondering what the future
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: of retailers will bring. Sema Shaw joins us now. She's
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: consumer discretionary analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, and we're also joined
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: by Christian Magoon, chief executive officer of Amplify Investments in
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: Colorado Springs. Sema, let's start with you retail sales unexpectedly dropping.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: What was driving that? Um, there was a deceleration, as
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: you mentioned, sort of across the board. I think what
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: was most notable was that, uh, May was weaker than expected,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: so I think maybe people thought there'd be some rebound
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: and that non store sales, so online decelerated their growth
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: from last month, so that's kind of it still is up,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: but the growth wasn't. No, but this is important because
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: it sort of suggests something more with the consumer than
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: simply a show. I mean, personally, you and I have
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: discussed that before. Other than building materials, which was flat
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: last month, but up this month, I haven't seen a
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: lot of strength across the board in any particular category.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: And we were talking about Target. Target was better announced
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: that sales might be better than expected for Q two,
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: but that likely comes at the risk of margin and
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: the investment they've made in price. So maybe people are
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: willing to buy either online or in stores, but it's
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: very price competitive, and so I think that's the risk,
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: and you're seeing that seem you know. I was looking
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: at the stock charts, and I want to bring in
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: Christian Magoon on this as well, because I was looking
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: at the stock chart of Target. This was almost an
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: eighty dollar stock last fall, all right, just last fall.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: It is now on sale at fifty three dollars. Macy's
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: was a nearly a forty four dollar stock in November.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: It's also on sale at twenty two dollars and twenty
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: three cents right now? Do they need saviors? Does someone
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: have to come in? Because I want Christian to comment
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: about the potential for Amazon spending even more money. But Sema,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: what do you think? Um, I don't know if they
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: need statis you have to separate the fundamentals and the
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: stock reaction. So if there's any good news, these guys
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: jump up. But so people try, you know, they think, oh, hey,
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: this is a turn. But to me, when I look
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: at the competitive landscape, I don't see any upside for
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: many of these guys, not particularly Target or a Maze's.
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: But I just think, like, look at the way that
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Amazon is because I think it's a change in behavior.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: It's not just that it's one or the other. People
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: want a combination. But as you get used to spending
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: online and you have it's been your behavior. It's on
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: your phone, and you're able they get the last mile
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: through Whole Foods, it becomes increasingly difficult for other people
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: to compete. Christian, you said that you think that Amazon
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: could buy a player like Macy's. Can you explain why
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: this would be a beneficial move for them. Yeah, I
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: think it'd be a strategic acquisition because Amazon is trying
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: to a semi set kind of get that last little um,
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: you know, a few feet into physically being on on
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: people's mind. Whole Foods is a great example of adding
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: you know, four thirty physical locations. Macy's would be another
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: interesting example of adding you know, close to seven locations.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: And this gives Amazon a way to not just show
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: room things like Macy's does today, but also as a
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: delivery center place to have storage lockers, potentially have autonomous
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: vehicles go in and out of drone delivery, etcetera. And
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: then also obviously Amazon has a great uh technology base,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: whether it's kind of these voice enabled devices or just
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: um they're kind of ever present online um effort to
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: promote some of these brands Macy's has. So I think
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: that physical footprint is going to be important. I believe
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: Seema is exactly right. It's not going to be just online,
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: it's not going to be just brick and mortar. It's
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: going to be omni channel in Amazon's probably in the
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: cat's seat to figure out that mix. Well, you know, Seema,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: there's a report today and and Christian you can come
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: in on this as well. There's a report from Goldman
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: Sachs saying that while they put Walmart on their Conviction
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: boy list and the stock is up one point three
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: and they said that the Walmart is well positioned for
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: any competition with Amazon. I guess it's also in reference
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: to the fact that they're going to have to absorb
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: that the Whole Foods acquisition. Seema, what about Walmart? Walmart
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: to me is a little bit of a different customer.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: It's a lower end on average. I mean, it's not
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: really a direct competitor or Whole Foods, I would argue,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, I understand, but right relation to Amazon. Yet,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: Walmart has the stores, but they don't have the back
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: end infrastructure online as well developed as Amazon. And as
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: we've seen from multiple retailers, that seems to be the
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: harder part to execute versus getting having the online and
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: that infrastructure correct and the logistics and then buying the
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: bricks and mortar. So I think that is more that
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: is a bigger That's something that's they're going to struggle
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: to get. Like they've made all these small acquisitions like
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: Jet and mod you know, modcloth and things like that.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: But how do you put those together and how do
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: you have that seamless experience that people had, say like
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: on Amazon Prime Day, where the site was so quick
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: to load and to still you know, get the deliveries out.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: That part, to me is very hard to replicate. So Christian,
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: I want to I want to go back to that
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: image that that you portrayed of Amazon buying Macy's and
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: having these stores with drones flying over them and autonomous
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: cars and Jetson's you know, uh family member flying overhead.
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: I'm just trying to figure out, you know, in this image,
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: are we getting back to the same model that kind
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: of is failing right now for a lot of the retailers,
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: which is uh that if people are ordering online, they
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: don't need the physical location, why store up? Yeah, I
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: think it's a it's kind of hybrid, uh, based off
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: the current brick and mortar model, and the hybrid nature
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: is having those physical locations might allow you to do
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: just in time delivery of thirty minutes or an hour. Um.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: You know, if grocery, the grocery industry is truly going
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: to be disrupt is you need to be able to
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: have something like a same day delivery service, and physical
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: locations in in these major communities like a Macy's or
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: Whole Foods offer is going to help that out. In addition,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: there's a large, you know, population growing city city population
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: that may need actually a storage locker or a different
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: place besides their place of where they're living or their
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: actual place of employment to actually go out and pick
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: up packages that are are delivered in a locker. And
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: then I think, finally, um, it's it's hard to ignore
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: the impulse buying that way we do him and Lisa
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: when we're walking through a store, and Amazon is missing
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: some of that. I think we do some of the
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: impulse buying online, but obviously when you're a physical store,
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: I think that increases um kind of the likelihood that
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: you could pick up some other things. And I think
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: that will be beneficial to Amazon and other online retailers
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: once they have a little bit more of a physical footprint. Right, Well,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: they've got to get into the store in the first place.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: I'm just to note the average Prime member at Amazon's
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: spends hundred dollars on the online shopping platform annually. They
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: spend non Prime members they spend seven hundred dollars, so
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: nearly double the amount. And this is a big deal
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: when it comes to Amazon Prime selling day, right, SIMI,
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: because it's not just about the product, it's about signing
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: people up for that. Yes, because I think that part
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: of what makes them so defensible against other people who
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: mimic their online platform is the fact that it is
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: a marketplace, it's prime, and it's almost part of people's behavior.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: It's on your phone, and that makes people, i think,
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: at a certain price, even at a certain level, less
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: price sensitive. And then it then you would be typically
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: because it's just so convenient and you don't really need
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: more than one Amazon Prime membership like in for a competitor,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: and I think that's what makes their first mover advantage
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: so powerful. Thank you very much, Sema Shaw, consumer discretionary
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. Christian Magoon, chief executive of Amplify Investments, Well,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: we want to know that they have to go to
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: the blackboard again. Stephen Dennis is our senate reporter from
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg News and he joins us from Capitol Hill in Washington,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: and he can be followed on Twitter at Stephen T.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: Dennis and he's got two ends. Well, are we going
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: to get another rewrite? Stephen, Yeah, I think they're gonna
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: have to put together a package for moderate there's a
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: bunch of holdout moderates, about a handful that come from
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: Medicaid expansion state. They didn't really get much in yesterday's rewrite,
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: and I think over the weekend before Monday or shortly
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: thereafter getting a CBO score on this bill, I think
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell is probably gonna have to dig back deep
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: into the leftover pocket change in his pocket and start
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: spending some of the extra money that he has to
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: uh get these senators back on board, Stephen, When you
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: talk with analysts and and policy wanks on Washington, on
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: Capitol Hill, what do they say about the likelihood that
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: Republicans can come together in any way for this or
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: whether at some point they'll have to reach out across
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: the aisle two Democrats and try to do something a
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: little more about partisan I think right now we're basically
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: on a knife edge where McConnell is very much trying
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: to get to a deal. And if you if there's
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: an uh, if there's a point of optimism here and
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: momentum potentially is that after this bill came out, there
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: were too hard nosed, and then there were fifty not
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: hard anything, right, So you had any one of those
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: fifty other senators could have tanked this bill yesterday, could
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: have put out a statement saying I won't vote for
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: it or I need massive changes or whatever, and they
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: held their fire. And so that means, uh, you know,
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: the one way of looking at is that there's fifty
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: senators who still want to get to yes. And there's
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: a lot of time between now and Tuesday, frankly to
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: get those senators to yes. So there's gonna be a
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: major efforts today tomorrow, over the weekend to lobby the senators,
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: to lobby their governors. Mike Pence is going to be
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: in Providence today lobbying senators like Brian Sandoval Key Center,
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: a key governor from Nevada, at the National Governors Association
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: meeting Yes Yes, so that the governors are all in Providence.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: Mike Pence is up there, you know, he tweeted yesterday
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: one of the things you want to do is talk
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: to them about the healthcare bill. And it's no secret
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: that if they don't get Brian Sandoval support in Nevada,
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: they're probably not gonna get Dean Heller's support uh here
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: in the Senate, and without Dean Heller, this bill goes down.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: So they need Dean Heller Medicaid expand to the state.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: They need Lisa Murkowski in Alaska Medica expansion state. Rob
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: Portman in Ohio expansion state. Shelley Moore Capital in West
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: Virginia Medica expansion state. None of them are on board yet.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: They need to get them all on board before they
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: vote next week. And you know, it's hard for me
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: to square the comments that all of those people have
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: made to me in the hallways over the last several
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: months with supporting anything like this bill. You know, they've
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: all said they don't want to vote for something that
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: has millions more people uninsured. Well, I don't think the
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: CBO is going to come out on Monday and say
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: this is going to score that much better on the
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: uninsurance rate. You know, Stephen, I want to I want
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: to really clarify one point because we hear so much
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: with respect to uh, the Russia intrigue and the potential scandal.
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: The Boston Globe now is reporting that a Russian American
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: lobbyists confirmed that he attended June meeting with Donald Trump Jr.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: Build as part of a Russian government effort to help
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: the Republican campaign. Does this matter at all when it
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: comes to really the important stuff of making this country work,
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: like the healthcare bill, and like the subsequent tax bill
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: that we have not seen anything drafted on but everybody's
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: waiting for. Does it matter. I think it doesn't matter
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: that much. You know, when I talk to senators and
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: I see them in the hallways, Uh, they are very busy.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: They're carrying griefing books, they are crunching numbers. They're talking
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: to their governors all about healthcare right now, or maybe
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: some of them are working on the tax bill. You know,
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: the Gang of Six, which is the Speaker, ch McConnell
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: and the Senate of Gary Cone, count of Economic Advisors
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: and Steve Nuchin, you know, the in the in the
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: ways and means and finance chairs. They've been meeting regularly.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: They met this week on tax reform. So those meetings
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: behind closed doors are happening. Numbers are, you know, papers
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: being exchanged, and I think, yeah, it's not clear that
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: Russia is really the problem. The problem here is the
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: politics of this bill are terrible that's the problem. We
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: see seven real quick when they go back if they
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: do have an August research recess, which doesn't seem like
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: they're going to. But if they were to go back,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: what would they hear from constituents? Well, right now, this bill,
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: this healthcare bill, has been pulling it around, you know,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: anywhere between twelve and that's not so hot. Now, it's
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: possible that it gets a little bit more popular at
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: the very end as they appeal to moderate and one
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: of the things that they did is they took out
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: the tax cuts for the wealthy from this bill, which
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: was the number one argument that Democrats were making is
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: that they were cutting the board to give might to
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: the rich and sort of a reverse robin Hood. So
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: maybe this bill gets a little more popular, but you know,
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: if they go home with empty handed, they're going to
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: hear it from their own conservative base. So they're going
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: to hear it from both sides. Stephen Dennis, thank you
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: so much for winning us in for that perspective. Stephen
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Dennis is our Senate reporter for Bloomberg News, coming to
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: us from at Capitol Hill in Washington. Thanks for listening
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. You can subscribe
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm on Twitter
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: at pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abramo wits one.
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide on
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio