Latest / Talking About Birds: A St. Louis Cardinals Podcast / Flag Day
Transcript
- 225 === [00:00:00] Nate: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Talking About Birds, the only Cardinal podcast that is FDA approved as a cure for insomnia. Insomnia. My name is Nate Heininger, and I am joined by my co-host, Ben Somorca ben: Howdy Nate: If you have an idea for the opening bit, text or leave us a voicemail at 848-48-BIRDS. Hambone, this was sent to us by someone, uh, y- via text message, so thank you to whoever you are, wherever you are. I ... They ki- kind of break from the format here, um, not really comparing it to, you know, usually it's sort of like, uh, you know, [00:01:00] like s- like the Cardinals, they're not as good as you hoped or, you know, this is just straight up we're boring and put people to sleep. So that- that's fine. ben: Um, yeah, and I mean, you know, sure, we're boring Nate: Sure ben: Like, I, I'm looking at the outline that I have in front of us today, and yeah, there's... We're gonna talk about some vertical break today Nate: Uh, I, I also noticed, you know, they sent it to us at 7:30 PM on a Saturday night. So if this is what they're using as a cure for insomnia, I think it might be a baby that texted us this, going to bed at 7:30 on a Saturday night ben: Um, Nate: You know what I mean? ben: I guess baby or, or the very elderly, the, the, the decrepit Nate: So it's either a baby or the decrepit that sent us this. So either way, impressive, frankly, if that's the case ben: old folks [00:02:00] and that's a challenge, right? Like, I feel like even for my parents it's a, it's a challenge. Nate: Uhhuh ben: How do you, what is it? We've been doing this for how many years? And Nate: What What, time does your podcast come on? ben: gun to my mom's head, uh, she would die if she had to play the podcast. I- if they were s- if they said, "You can play Talking About Birds right now or we'll shoot you in the head," Nate: Uh-huh. ben: they'd just pull the trigger Nate: Jesus Chri- Ben, help me. Can you talk about birds for a minute? ben: Maybe if she had phone a friend, she would, she Nate: Yeah. ben: first, yeah Nate: Uh, I listen to podcasts when I go to bed. Um, it, it, I f- it helps me fall asleep sometimes ben: Yeah, I mean, anything I can do to not have a, uh, Nate: I thought. Yeah. Uhhuh ben: especially an introspective one go through Nate: Mm-mm. ben: Uh that's I mean we're all avoiding that right That that's why [00:03:00] everyone has a podcast and they're all good Nate: Yep. ben: they're all helping us from that Nate: And if you don't have a podcast, go get yourself a couple ben: Get yourself one uh take ours um you can do whatever you want man Nate: I think the worst thing that is about, uh, listening to podcasts at bedtime is, uh, so I have like a whole routine with a sleep timer and all that, but every once in a while I forget to hit the button before I'm going to bed. And on a number of occasions, because I of course subscribe to my own podcast, you gotta boost those numbers any way you can, ben: You gotcha Nate: I have woken up to myself at like 1:00 in the morning just sounding like me. Uh, and it's, it's quite... The only thing worse is when I hear you is, is what wakes me up. Um, and so that's quite a, uh, confusing experience ben: know you're doing uh you're doing one of your great Nate bits where you you dunk on me [00:04:00] Um do you would you really rather hear your own voice than my voice Cause I hate hearing my voice Nate: Uh, yes. I would rather hear my own voice than your voice. ben: True Nate: do you feel about that? How do you feel about that? No. ben: Um I Nate: I everyone ben: about your children you know Th th if you weren't siring young people into uh you know different stages of their life I wouldn't Nate: Mmhmm ben: kind of stuff I wouldn't really be so worried about But the fact that that you know the children are our future and you are shaping a nonzero amount of them um scares me Nate: They will be king. Um, yeah. Uh, no, I mean really. ben: king That's an interesting thing to say Nate: And when they are, you will be first against the wall, my friend. That is what I... ben: Uh like you know yeah I'm I I will opt out of of this subscription That Nate: Yeah ben: cool with me Nate: Um, you frequently try to opt out every w- uh, on a, on a, a recurring basis [00:05:00] by participating in, um, a, uh, event that seems geared to dying in a car wreck. So you, you've, you've survived again this weekend. ben: Yep Nate: for the listeners who are not aware, can you give like a 30-second elevator pitch on what you did, and then tell me how it goes, ben: Yes I Nate: how it went? ben: called lemons racing Uh you should Google it if you're not familiar with it Essentially the goal is it's endurance style car racing and you are supposed to use a crappy car and make it drive for a long time Uh the race that we just completed was a 10hour race on Saturday followed by a eighthour race on Sunday And and September later in the year we have a 24hour Uh the goal is like I said you you buy a crappy car you soup it up a little bit and you try to Nate: Yeah ben: uh to make sure that it gets to the end of the race Um yeah so we had we had another race um this weekend and it started off amazing I'm driving out of Denver [00:06:00] on Friday morning and I get a call from one of my teammates who's already at the track They're they're working on the car and stuff like that and they are like Hey where where you at buddy You know I was like Oh just about leaving Denver like grabbing a coffee yada yada yada Like Hey could you swing by the garage and grab that other transmission I Nate: Always a good sign the other entire transmission ben: so was like Great what am I walking into I I turn back around grab the transmission drive it out there We swap it that day We're working on the car until about midnight Um the race starts at 900 AM so you know we're all feeling pretty groggy We're we're walking around The car is starting It's going into all of the gears that we expect it to go Nate: Important ben: uh we start driving it around driving fine and dandy Uh and then at some point um it it seems that we had failed to reattach the exhaust system properly cause we were dragging it around for a couple of laps and [00:07:00] shooting up sparks and flames everywhere Nate: It's cool looking though, at least ben: it was cool looking and the car sounded like a Harley Davidson all of a Nate: Y- yeah ben: I don't know if you've ever started a car without like a catalytic converter or something like that but it is loud as shit Nate: I'm frequently stealing those, and I've stolen my own catalytic converter, so I know how that goes ben: feel pretty con A g again a gun to your head and I said Nate go steal the catalytic converter off that car and I gave you s seven hours I don't think that you could do Nate: My best, uh, uh, I think what I would do is just try to steal the whole car and say, "Here, you didn't, you didn't..." ben: count Nate: Yeah. ben: that would count Nate: Yeah ben: you could steal a car Nate: Gun to my head, steal a car, I'm going to die if I don't steal this a- like, yes, I think I could steal, I could successfully steal a car. ben: Okay Nate: Uh, now if you pointed to a specific car and you were like, "Go steal ben: That car Nate: car," ben: Yeah Nate: it's a[00:08:00] ben: not be gone in 60 seconds Nate: to- it would be a very different ballgame. But if it's just steal a car, ben: Okay Nate: I think that would honestly be probably pretty easy ben: Yeah I would go for a pizza delivery driver cause I feel like they leave their keys in You just follow them get your timing right boom Nate: That, yeah, a- ben: maybe I would order the pizza Nate: there you go. Uh-huh. Yeah, Uber, uh, or, uh, uh, Uber Eats, anything like that, or just like a mail, a mail truck, ben: I Nate: you know ben: you to get away with it I just asked you to steal a car So yeah those all add up Nate: Yeah. ben: an Uber and then stealing the car is very Nate: Hey, could you, uh, s- step out real quick? Um, so ben: anyways uh that all happened and then we we drove the car for like two days after that Um but as you can probably imagine Oh I I got one other uh uh interesting Oh actually sorry I got a a a few things I'll I'll Nate: Wow ben: through this cause I'm sure some people do not give a shit about this at all Nate: [00:09:00] Mm-hmm. ben: had an Nate: Most ben: day two while I was driving and a person decided to cut me off and I had to slam on the brakes on a straightaway and I slid so long the brakes locked up that I flattened part of the front wheels so that when I was driving it Nate: Dun dun dun Dun, ben: So Nate: Like a Fl- Flintstone ass. Uh, yeah. ben: Uh but anyway yeah that that no accident thank You know I didn't hit anybody but it was a close and very fun uh event that happened there Something that I think you'll you'll be more excited to hear about is uh when we do this twoday race in between the the uh Saturday and Sunday race we have a big potluck Nate: Sure. ben: paddock Everybody's making food I Nate: Yep ben: for everybody Uh and a bunch of people have um different you know food Nate: Yeah. ben: they're they're giving out Nate: Wow. I- now I'm interested ben: one person had a motorized chili dog cart that they were [00:10:00] driving around They would drive up to people and give them a it was a green chili cheese dog and Nate: Okay ben: out hot dogs and it was really good It was delicious I l I love green chili chili on a hot dog with Nate: Sure ben: was delicious uh I I think the coup de grâce of what was at the paddock was that uh this team who is They're they're silly people I guess I'll just leave it there They're they're weird guys Nate: Yeah ben: had a SpaghettiOs fountain So think Nate: Now you have my... You had me at SpaghettiOs ben: but spag SpaghettiOs were pouring out Obviously I had to try this They had like a a kinda little uh uh grouping of of different foods that you could dip into the SpaghettiOs Nate: Oh God. ben: to go for a Dino Nugget Nate: Oh God ben: cause I thought it was the funniest thing Nate: Uhhuh ben: spam and uh mozzarella sticks stuff like that Nate: [00:11:00] Basically diggi- dipping it into sugar sauce, which is what SpaghettiOs sauce is ben: had SpaghettiOs in a long time The What I was not expecting is that the SpaghettiOs in the fountain were cold Nate: Oh ben: So I Nate: no. ben: Dino Nate: Is this even ben: coat it in SpaghettiOs and eat it and it's the temperature and the texture and the color and I mean it was it was it was one of the worst bites I've had in in quite Nate: Yeah, I can imagine. I, it's like I'm thinking fondue, right? And like, like what's the worst version of a fondue? And I guess cold SpaghettiOs might be exactly that ben: It it was it was it was not good It was not good I'm I'm comfortable saying that Nate: What, I'm, I'm k- frankly having a hard time picturing this. Was it like a foun- like, like a fondue where it's pouring over the edges or? ben: a like a chocolate fountain Nate: Yeah, ben: a chocolate Nate: I see. ben: or what you would use as a Nate: Yeah. ben: filled it with [00:12:00] SpaghettiOs I I I have a picture I c I'll share it in the Birds Nate: I can't believe it wasn't clogged ben: I will say it did not look like it was running at maximum efficiency It was kinda like chugging Nate: They left the meatballs in there too, so they're just ben: Yeah it was um was a sight to behold Nate: Yeah. Well, that's incredible. I'm glad this is the type of stuff you're spending your weekends doing is, uh, dipping dino nuggets into cold SpaghettiOs, and I'm the one with kids. ben: Uh yeah I well I don't know what to say But yeah that that is how I have found I pay for this I pay for the pleasure of Nate: Uh-huh. ben: Yeah Nate: Well, incredible. I'm glad you guys survived. Good job. Um, I know you were mo- you were Gen Z geared. Um, were you properly annoying? ben: Not real I mean we we kinda halfassed it We had a lot of work to do That that Friday night Nate: Yeah ben: really kinda took the wind out of our energy sails Um but we did yeah I was wearing a bucket hat and um you know [00:13:00] chunky white so I I Nate: Yeah ben: best And I was also saying things like Chat we're cooked Nate: Uh-huh. It's fine. ben: so on and so forth We Nate: Yeah. ben: that we were scooting around Nate: Great ben: Um but yeah it was The the theming was pretty light uh but the car ran Nate: Well, there you go. And what more can you ask for? ben: Yeah Nate: Um, all right, let's talk about your St. Louis Cardinals. Uh, state of play, the Cardinals are, as we record, we are recording before the Cardinals attempt the sweep, uh, of the Padres. The feckless Padres is how it's been feeling these last two games. Um, ben: it has been Nate: w- they, uh, the Cardinals are 40 and 31, nine games above 500, which is tying for the season high. If they are successful in today's game, that will match a new season high of 10 games above 500. Um, a tough [00:14:00] series, surprisingly, against Minnesota. Um, they really showed up, uh, Minnesota's power did over the weekend. ben: Yeah Nate: but overall, the con- the obviously m- having matched the season high, the Cardinals are playing well, playing quite well right now. Um, and, uh, I don't know, where do you, where do you wanna start? I think, uh, we're gonna talk about playoff picture right now. It's kind of interesting. ben: I I mean I I think it is interesting to note that the Cardinals are now at a over 50 They're at a 55 projected uh pr uh chance to make the playoffs at this point which is of course a season high for the St Louis Cardinals Um and I I think that like it becoming a coin flip and then I You also look at what the other teams in the National League are doing right The Pirates have now moved under 500 Nate: Yep ben: [00:15:00] they're they're sitting at right at 500 right now Cincinnati Reds have moved to under 500 the Reds have dropped all the way They have a 7 chance to make the playoffs right now Nate: Yeah, I they have a negative 44 run differential, you know? So ben: Uh Cubbies and Pirates are sitting at just under a 40 chance to make the playoffs uh which I I think is probably surprising to a lot of people Um and the c like I said the Cardinals over 50 chance Of course the uh Brewers who just are a unstoppable baseball machine right now have a 96 chance to make the playoffs and uh 81 chance to win the division I think we feel pretty good about that happening Nate: Yeah ben: with the Cardinals being over 50 meaning um know basically if they just keep playing like they're playing if they keep playing on this clip this this winning percentage right now that they have which is 563 they're probably going to make the playoffs They would make the playoffs today And then it calls into question [00:16:00] well what the f hell do we do Because they're they're Like I saw Albert Pujols talking about it on when he was an analyst the other night like you don't get this chance every year I think Nate: Yeah ben: maybe feel a little jaded in that sense that we made the playoffs so many times in a row but it's never a foregone conclusion and I do kind There is part of me that believes if you are in the pod and if you make it into the I think you call it the random championship generator that is the playoffs then you at least have to put your best foot forward Um now the Cardinals have a lot of season to fumble this ball to Nate: Hmm ben: 55 playoff odds um for the pitching to go down for the young players to go down for injuries setbacks all kinds of things to happen but where we're sitting right now on June 17th it makes the conversation much more complicated and I think we actually have to start thinking about and talking about how we're [00:17:00] going to approach the trade deadline what the Cardinals need to do um a a and how should look at this gift horse uh that that we have right now Nate: Yeah. I mean, we've been already been talking about this for a couple weeks in a row now, right? About, like, the Heim Bloom's posture so far has mostly been, we are still focused on the long haul, right? We're not going to make short-term decisions at the expense of the long term. Um, and I think that while that's true, I do think that if the Cardinals are anywhere near this sort of position come the end of July, which as you just said, a lot of baseball still. You know? A lot can change in 40 games or so. Um, and a lot can, but a lot can change in both directions, right? If the Cardinals are five games up in the wildcard, they're two and a half right now, but [00:18:00] if they're five games up in the wildcard, basically a, a favorite, uh, for the playoffs come the, uh, come the trade deadline, I don't know how you can, um, do what we've been talking about, which is say, "Well, it's been great. It's been a fun first half, but let's, we gotta stick to the plan." Um, you know, the, I think the good thing is, is that, like, the decisions really come down to, like, two guys primarily. You know? And you, y- you kinda said this last week too, is that, um, if the Cardinals decide to hold Dustin May and hold JoJo Romero, that is not a monumental setback in the rebuilding plans, right? ben: not optimal Nate: Yeah ben: it is not I I think essentially what I said last week is like fumbling or not doing the Dustin May trade doesn't really change the Cardinals outlook Nate: Yeah. It, it, [00:19:00] like, part o- partly because coming into the season, Dustin May himself was a big lottery ticket. There was... ben: huge gamble Nate: Yeah, so there was... ben: a 12 million gamble Nate: Yeah ben: biggest gamble of all time but we had no idea what he was Nate: Right. There was a, there was a, you know, in the infinite, uh, expanse of outcomes, there was a lot of it where it was like, "Well, that was fun, but, you know, didn't really get us anything." So the fact that he is looking like an ace is best possible first half outcome. Uh, and if you were trying to trade him is also best possible outcome. Like, they could probably get a really good return at the deadline for him. But if they don't, we still have five draft picks coming up and an already stacked, uh, farm system, so you're like, "Well, it would be cool to continue to layer on that. But also, we're winning right now, so what's the point?" You know? Uh, and then kind of the same with JoJo Romero. Um, Ryan Stanek is in there a little bit too. You know, he had a really bad game over the weekend. Um, but has [00:20:00] overall actually been pretty good for a little while now. Um, so I would expect in a sale mode we'd be selling all three of those guys. Um, but I think it'd be JoJo and May would be your, your big tickets. Um, so holding them is where it seems like things are going. So then the question is: What does adding look like? You know? And I think that is probably the more, like, balance of how much are you sacrificing the future for a win now, you know? And I would imagine that will happen is Heim won't be looking for the blockbuster trade deadline move to get an ace, to put this team into favorite posit- I mean, they're never gonna be a f- even, like... There's probably not a trade they can do at the trade deadline to make them a favorite, like over the Dodgers or whatever. Um, but, like, one of those huge moves where you're trading some top prospects. I don't think they'll do that. I think if we're not selling, the buying will be more like a raise the [00:21:00] floor sort of thing, you know. Um, uh, a backend starter for more depth, another reliever for more depth, that sort of thing. So you can say, "We're not sacrificing the future, but we're also not giving in because we're a, we're a winning team." ben: I I think the only way a trade a a bigger trade would make sense is if the Cardinals can acquire a starting pitcher with control Nate: Yeah ben: and I think that's gonna be really hard to do Not impossible to do There are some funny teams that are out of the playoff race this year Um you know the we'll talk about it a little bit more later but the Giants just basically announced like ripping this shit down May you Nate: Yeah ben: do we go get Robbie Ray Um that probably doesn't make sense He's not a young starter with control But I'm just trying to think of like what kind of starter might be available Um but I think that like there's almost no chance that the Cardinals adjust the position player group going forward I think that that would be Nate: That's r- yeah ben: They have all these guys who are like 24 that they wanna Nate: There's really no [00:22:00] need to, right? Like, ben: too yeah Nate: yeah. The, like the problem areas are like, oh man, our, uh, elite defensive center fielder is not hitting very well. You know, like, oh no uh, our number nine hitter, um, our new third baseman who's hitting very well is, you know, maybe not the best third baseman. ben: Yeah Nate: again, like bottom of the order problems, which most teams have ben: So I I think it comes down to like the Cardinal it would make sense for the Cardinals to do something like grabbing a reliever from the Royals or a a a team like that that is You you go grab a piece that's probably not at the back end of your bullpen but near the back end of your bullpen Um it probably doesn't cost that much Maybe you move somebody who other teams are clamoring for for whatever reason and you kinda just let the young guys play That that seems like again [00:23:00] sitting here with our playoff odds at 55 um that seems like most obvious option But there's al like I I am very I I feel pretty confident that the Pirates are gonna continue to fade away that the Reds are gonna continue to fade away and I think that I mean unless the Cubs get some like miracle health news um which just does not seem to be coming I I kinda feel like it's not going to be their year either Um so Nate: Yeah. ben: it's Nate: The, path forward ben: yeah Nate: is, relatively clean, and as we mentioned in the show last week, the Cardinals are in a softer period of the schedule. So like, if they're like, uh, leading up to the trade deadline, it's a bunch of bad teams that we're playing that the Cardinals could pad this record with. ben: So so if you get to 75 playoff odds after this next month of baseball preceding the [00:24:00] deadline then that really changes the conversation You almost Nate: Yeah ben: also this part of like don't you as the front office owe it to Ivan and Burley and Walker and all these young guys for having the year that they're having And I think the fans too you know Um Nate: tarps off ben: tarps off Um that's a great point It's a great way to end a sentence just tarps off Nate: Period. Um, yeah, that's a, that's a more interesting, like, nar- like do you owe it to the players? You hear that, you know? ben: I think you do Nate: yeah. Yeah. Well I mean, on that you never know, like, I hate to say this, but like you never, we don't... Like, is, is this Jordan Walker forever or is this like a career year, it's all clicking and, you know. Yeah ben: Jordan Walker a I mean all of these guys really Like Nate: Yeah. ben: guys have a [00:25:00] longterm proven track record Nate: Right ben: can You know there's no back of the baseball card leaning for any of these guys Nate: Yeah ben: you know there there is that y you know opportunity is here currently It's hard to ignore that Nate: Yeah Well, let, let's, let's talk about some of the players individually. Um, I mean, the star of the show right now, a guy that we have talked a lot about, both in a positive light and also they m- they should've traded this guy two years ago, uh, s- Lens, um, has had quite a week. Um, Alec Burleson, uh, five home runs. Was it four in a row, four games in a row, the gap and then another one? Um, just completely crushing the ball right now. Uh, still, still struggling a little bit from a splits standpoint. Um, but no question against right-handed pitching, he's one [00:26:00] of the best, uh, pure hitters in baseball right now. Um, which I've always said, uh, these platoon guys make a lotta sense on a team that is competing, don't make as much sense on a rebuilding team. Uh, all of a sudden we are a team that is competing, and Alec Burleson is one of the better players on the team. So, uh, the team caught up with Alec Burleson, and it's been a lotta fun. Um, what, what are you seeing outta Burleson right now? ben: Yeah I mean he is barreling ball So this year he he's just showing improvement across the Nate: Yeah ben: He's barreling balls more than he ever has this year He's projected to hit 25 homers right now uh in the season uh according to ZIPS I think we are Just based on this recent hot streak I wouldn't be surprised if that uh number starts scooting up closer to 30 Um his expected stats are all higher than his actual performance That's his expected batting average expected slugging percentage expected WOBA everything So Statcast is really liking [00:27:00] everything he's doing And I mean if you're watching the games you just see he Nate: Yeah ben: His zone is massive especially for for a guy his size Um and he makes hard contact with everything He has 27 barrels on the season right now He had 40 last year Um he's just doing really good work His xWOBA um is 391 Nate and we Nate: Pretty good ben: this number a lot That's We're talking like borderline MVP Obviously he doesn't have the defensive prowess or positioning to to really get that But from an offensive standpoint he has been really impressive He does have the splits issue like you mentioned Uh before we talk about that uh it should be noted that against righthanded pitching he is the fifth best hitter in baseball He has a 179 WRC against righthanded pitchers He is right below James Wood who is maybe the MVP Nate: Yeah ben: League for the season right now or or definitely one of those [00:28:00] guys now to put a little water on this his WRC against lefties is 29 Nate: Yeah, it's... ben: is obviously not great Nate: No ben: probably uh th there there's probably a point where the Cardinals should maybe start protecting him against lefties a little bit more Um that being said you know obviously having Burley in the game is is probably better than not maybe Blaze being up here a few more starts against lefthanded starters probably makes more sense But when you're carrying a 179 WRC cl plus against the strong side of the platoon it's pretty easy to forgive that 29 But I I It's Nate: It it ben: that 29 is Nate: Bad. Yeah, very, very ben: that you can be such a good hitter from one side and such a Nate: Yeah ben: hitter from the other Like it is If he was had a 29 like there aren't People don't carry that Nate: Right ben: [00:29:00] in Major League Baseball it's so bad Nate: Yeah. Um, and that's where, like, the argument of he didn't really make sense on a rebuilding team, um, you know, uh, and I would stand by that. Like, a pure platoon hitter is, uh, is, is, you know, an extra roster spot. Um, uh, there's a lot in there to have to carry someone like that. But when they're, they're this extreme on the other side, like, he clearly needs to be in the game every game where right-handed pitching is the predominant, um, side and which is the strong side of the pl- platoon, you know? Um, so he's clearly an incredibly valuable player. Um, but if the Cardinals are going to start transitioning into more of the we are, we're in it this year, we're winning every game, we're going for it, I do think you'll start to see him sit more games when, when there's a lefty on the mound. Um, ben: Yeah Nate: it, the sample size is getting there. It's been a career problem for him. Um, [00:30:00] they've been letting him go this season 'cause that's what you do in a rebuild year. Like, maybe he can fix it. He's young enough. Um, but it won't be able to continue this poorly, uh, if they want to actually capitalize on this situation ben: Yeah There there's also the side of like if you aren't starting him against every lefthanded pitcher you feel really good about having Biscuits Alec Burly Biscuits DJ Biscuit whatever we wanna Nate: Yeah. ben: him Nate: DJ Biscuits I think is, yeah ben: against a righty Like that is it's one of the best verse righty bats you can find in baseball right Nate: Yeah ben: So yeah it it'll be curious like if the Cardinals and Ali Marmol start leaning towards that like more aggressive optimization of rolling out the lineup using pinch hitters that that kind of thing Nate: I would certainly l- I hope so, frankly. I mean, that was, that's supposed to be the Cardinals taking, we, we heard all about that. We're gonna be more, more matchup [00:31:00] savvy, more, uh, pitch type savvy. We wanna use the modern data. Um, and I, like they haven't been doing that with Burlison at, I mean, he, they have a little bit, but not, not to the degree you'd expect with such bad splits. And that I think is simply the, like I already said, it's we're rebuilding, we're giving everyone every opportunity to be successful. Uh, 'cause obviously the true ideal outcome is that he gets that up to even just like a 70 or ben: Would Nate: 80 W. Yeah, you know, um, which is funny to say that that is a 40-point increase or a 50-point increase. So yeah, wouldn't it be nice if they just improved by 50 points? Um, but it just doesn't seem to be happening. Um, so we'll see. Um, you d- we did mention Blaze Jordan. Um, I, I mean, we gotta, we gotta I think call that out now. Probably one of the bigger roster moves we've gotten of the season. Um, Blaze Jordan, the beneficiary of the, [00:32:00] um, unfortunate send-down of Nolan Gorman. I'm assuming the front office listened to last week's pod where you and I, both l- big Gorman supporters and, and fans for a long time, were both just like they're, they're, it's hard to argue for it at this point, and then like the next day he got sent down. Um, so wishing the best of luck for him. I do think it makes sense. Um, he's still young enough that it could, he could put it back together and we could see Nolan Gorman again. Um, but it, I, I think it was the right move to, to try something else. ben: Well i it's just the the quality Clearly Nolan Gorman has physical gifts Um he has supreme power some of the best power in baseball I think when he's right Nate: Yeah. ben: but if you can't get to it if you can't make contact with the ball in any real way we talked about the strikeout percentage we talked about the lack of thump Like w we we [00:33:00] mentioned this last week if you wanna carry a 32 strikeout rate you gotta hit the ball hard and he Nate: Yeah ben: isn't Um he has one of the lowest ISOs on the team Uh is is just not slugging for anything at all right now The defense is fine Um but I think you know we've seen Blaze Jordan play two seconds and I think that you can already say that the quality of the atbats is they're higher than what we're seeing from Nolan Gorman Um he's making better contact He's hitting the ball the other way He's not just flailing wildly And I'm very curious to see like Blaze Jordan has kind of a weird profile Nate: Yeah ben: a hitter doesn't really strike out He walks it He's like a high contact power hitter Nate: Yeah. ben: and I'm curious to see if he can actually do that in the big leagues Nate: Right ben: cause that's like the hardest thing to do Nate: Yeah. It's the i- it's the ideal profile, right? High power, high [00:34:00] contact. Like, what, who, who is that? Uh, Juan Soto? I don't know, you know. Um, so, or, or Aaron Judge or whatever. Like, you don't normally get both, but it's, r- 'cause it's just rarely successful. So ben: But Nate: yeah, we'll see. A- ben: he's definitely hitting the ball hard in in the you know very very few He's he's had 17 so far and he has a ni almost a 95 average exit velocity which would be very good if that's something he could continue to carry Nate: Yeah, 100%. Um, and then the big, the even bigger question mark is can he stick at third? Everything we had been told leading up to this is he's not a third baseman. And then ben: was telling us that and I feel like we were pushing back on that a little bit a and the the Cardinals internet averse was really telling us that that wasn't gonna happen and then it Nate: And then here he is. ben: And then the Cardinals are just playing him at third base now Nate: Yeah ben: I you know and I thought that [00:35:00] they similar to how they're signaling Josh Baez as a center fielder like why would they have the guy be playing so much third in TripleA if they didn't think he was a third baseman Nate: Yeah ben: and I will say so far like he I you know I I don't think he's gonna set the world on fire or win a Gold Glove over there but he hasn't looked hapless Like he's looked Nate: He's made a few plays. Yeah ben: and it's when you're talking about production um it it doesn't have to look way or the other You know Like it doesn't have to be a great defender with a power bat He could just have a bat that carries him and a glove that's fine enough and you have a good third baseman in there It's just Nate: Yeah ben: not the shape of third baseman that ideal Nate: Right. Well, and, and where the Cardinals are at right now, we kinda talked about this already in this episode, but like the top end of the lineup is pretty good. The offense is pretty legit. We just needed not a black [00:36:00] hole, uh, at third base. And so if he even comes in, hell, if he has a 90 WRC+ and plays a solid defense, like that is such a floor, lift of the floor, which is what really starts to add up over a whole season. Let alone if he actually, I mean this, his whole coming out party here has been incredible from a production standpoint. I, I doubt this is the real Blaze, but like you d- we don't need him to be the center of the team. Um, we just need him to be average MLB, and it's probably a big lift for the team. ben: And and what's interesting is the Cardinals have done this with catcher They've done this with center field They've now done this with third base It's kind of wild to be rooting for a team that is making these kinds of moves You're you're playing well in TripleA for long enough we think that you're going to be better than the guy we have and [00:37:00] here's the move Um but I I I'm kind of shocked that we're looking at Cardinals lineup on J you know in the middle of June right now and Crooks Jordan and Church are patrolling their various positions right now It's it's kinda cool Nate: Yeah Yeah. The future is now. ben: I guess so The Nate: Yeah ben: so young now Not that like Gorman was like an old man but the team is the t I Brian Torres is unc on the team Nate: Brian Torres is Unc. It's giving Unc. Um, ben: he's chopped he's unk Nate: yep, yep ben: also lowkey GOATed though I Nate: Yeah. Yeah, if anyone, Brian Dozier is for sure low-key goated. ben: Yeah you Nate: we're cool, we're hip, deca, deca, deca. Um, all right, let's, let's give a man some praise that we have been mean [00:38:00] to. I'm talking Andre Pallante. Um, we're coming off of his longest start of the season last night, going seven innings against the Padres. Um, and many times you and I have said this guy should not be in the starting rotation anymore. ben: Yeah Nate: we basically just had, before this run of success, 200 straight innings of mediocrity at best. Um, and him and the rest of the starting pitching, frankly, for the last month, if not more, has been pretty good. You know, not, not like, you know, the best pitcher in baseball or anything, but compared to what we had seen out of him before, he's been pretty good. Um, so what, what's he doing, Hambone? What's the difference? ben: Obviously he's made a deal with a wizard and Nate: makes sense. I'm glad you're saying it ben: 20 years off his life but he's gonna be a successful[00:39:00] Nate: Goo Goo Gaga ben: Um it's interesting Uh the the slider i is really what it comes down to Nate is he's he's sliding he's doing a slider We like slider We use slider all the time Nate: We, we love slider ben: for the first time in his career his slider usage equals his fourseam Uh h throughout his career the fourseam has massively outnumbered everything He's thrown that most of the time In 2026 he's throwing the fourseam only about 30 of the time which is good Nathan because over the last two years the fourseam has had a 150 WRC against it So the fact that he's finally putting that that fastball in his pocket a little bit Nate: Yeah ben: is good news Um what's also interesting and and just looking for things that are different between years previous and this year is that he was kind of He's messed with his arm angle year over year for a while now Um and he's kind of lowered it in 2026 a little [00:40:00] bit from where he was last year Um and it's uh uh uh it's not just that he's adjusted his arm angle on the fastball he's done that on the sinker uh where he's gone from 57 degrees to 52 degrees in 2026 and the slider has gone from fif 56 degrees to 50 degrees He he has taken it Uh I didn't mention this His fastball was 58 it's now 54 So he's he's throwing at a different angle obviously looking for different Nate: Yeah ben: action on the pitches The arm slot drop has changed his fastball shape This is I think I led to this earlier We're gonna talk about vertical break and vertical drop a little bit Nate: Woo-hoo. ben: Um a and vertical break just think of that as ride on the fastball Nate: Okay ben: so in 2025 he had a 103inch careerhigh ride In 2026 that's gone up to 123 inches the best vertical break he's already ever had Um his fourseam vertical drop in 2025 is 204 inches 2026 is [00:41:00] 179 least drop of his career So his fastball is carrying a little bit more than it has in the past But Ben it's still getting hit hard But Nate: Ben, it's still getting hit hard ben: I know but when you're throwing your slider which is a plus pitch we if you watch the games if you look at the m I mean it's nasty Uh that curveball's pretty good too but the slider is nasty I think this id this uh additional ride that he has on his fastball is helping the slider tunnel a little bit better and when your fastball's staying on plane more and your slider drops like a mother I think it makes it re that slider even that much better Nate: Sure. ben: that's really what's helped him out He's also mixed in a uh a splitter which he's only thrown uh it's like 37 times I think which is very low when you look at his season numbers But he's just It's there's another thing in the back of people's head Oh he's he's got [00:42:00] that splitter I know he's toying with Nate: Yeah ben: But I think all of those things together are are working for Polanco right now Now that being said I I don't think that all these changes have turned him into a a number two or a number three or Nate: Yeah ben: that He still isn't striking out enough guys He still has Having a bad fastball in MLB a really hard way to Nate: Yeah ben: Um it it's just a matter of fact But I'll be cur You know so far he's only thrown that split that splitter 37 times Ain't nobody's done anything on it yet It has got a minus 100 WRC Nate: Pretty good ben: um s it's got super low spin rate um which is good if you're throwing a splitter May makes it dance a little bit more Um so I think we're seeing him evolve in real time I think we're Like the fact that he w I I I never really looked at this The fact that he's toying with his arm angle as much as he has been obviously he's trying to do something [00:43:00] Um got more ride on the fastball That's making the slider better We got a new pitch We're throwing the slider more All of these things are equaling Andre Polanco probably the best he's ever thrown over 70 some odd innings in his career so far Um keep watching see what happens but you know it's hard to complain about what he's doing Nate: Certainly. And, uh, great breakdown. Um, I'll just say, you know, what, what you look for when you're seeing these fundamental changes in results is what... Is there, is he doing anything different, or is it just sequencing well, right? He's a ground ball guy. Um, is it just the defense is better this year? Is he getting luckier on BABIP? Is he getting luckier on, uh, left on base and things like that? And for the most part, it, no, it really does seem to be these process changes, which is what you look for for more ground to [00:44:00] stand on when you say he's actually a better pitcher right now. Um, and based off of what you've done here, I think it is fair to say that he has been pitching better than he has before, and now it's just a matter of, is there another level? Can that fastball become something, uh, that it is actually a plus pitch or near it to, to pair even better with his, uh, breaking balls? 'Cause like you said, it's really hard to be successful long-term without a fastball. And can he get even better, uh, with these other breaking balls, you know? Um, 'cause as much as we've talked about him, as much as we've lamented him as a starting pitcher, the truth is he's still pretty young, just like the rest of the team, and pitching can take years to develop, you know? Um, there, there's dozens of examples in the league right now of guys who didn't really click until they were 28 or whatever. ben: Right Nate: and so maybe this is it. Maybe we've [00:45:00] been wrong this entire time, and, uh, the pitching staff of the St. Louis Cardinals know a little bit more about pitching than us, and they've been able to, uh, been able to f- finally find this a better version of Palante. Uh, which would be quite nice, because the team is playing well, the Cardinals look like a better team, but the starting pitching is still a massive question mark, both for this year and for future years. Uh, so it would be very good if we have a, you know, a solid number three out of Palante. ben: One one other just a as I was looking through these numbers something that I thought was interesting um and and kind of doesn't make sense to me and and maybe somebody smarter could explain it to me But uh this year his fourseam fastball um with all that ride we were just talking about has a 69 nice uh ground ball Nate: Nice. Yeah ben: sinker has a 54 ground ball rate Why [00:46:00] Why Nate: Well, I noticed too, like his ground ball rate is down this year compared to last year. Um, a- which you would think would not be good, because that's kind of his whole bag, baby. ben: Yeah Nate: but obviously the results are better. So I don't know ben: Yeah It's uh he's a weird pitcher Um he's weird to watch obviously Ev everything about He's just kinda he's kinda short He kinda throws hard He kinda is over the It's all he's kind of a just a weird Nate: Well he touched 97 in one of his pitches last night, which I think might have been the highest he's touched. I, I, I don't know. Yeah ben: Um do you see Myles Michaelis touched 97 in his last start Nate: Did he? ben: He did He just had like two really good starts with the Nationals Nate: Good. Good for him. We're, we're back on-- Now that he's on another team, uh, I'm, I'm all in on Miles Mikolas. ben: big cowboy energy over here Nate: Uhhuh ben: I am fully on the Miles Nate: Cowabunga, baby. Sometimes you just gotta saddle up and ride your [00:47:00] horse, you know? ben: it Nate: Yeah. Eat a lizard, be a freak Okay. Um, all right. I, I think we gotta stick with the, the top stories here, Hambone. No one in Cardinal baseball right now is not talking about Josh Baez. ben: Yes Nate: that was a, that was a double negative there. Everyone is talking about... ben: Yeah Nate: Let me take the, I'll, let me take it again. Everybody's talking about Josh Baez. Get in here. We're all here. Um, that is mostly because, uh, I mean, w- last night, he's a baseball player. Last night he hit four home runs, ben: Yeah Nate: uh, in a single game. ben: He Nate: good ben: Yes Um he's really good Nate Uh over the past 30 days his slash line has been 340 average 387 on base percentage [00:48:00] 1198 slug Uh w is that right That can't be No no that's his o onbase percent or his OPS OPS Nate: Okay. ben: That's his OPS I I wrote this down wrong Nate: Yeah. Okay ben: his slug while we're talking He's That's equal to a 190 over that time period And Nathan 67 walks uh per uh wa uh walk rate and a 28 K rate Uh numbers are trending well I will say I did a a smaller sample of the past like it was to two and a half weeks and his K rate has been lower around 25 Um I do think Now it's obviously it's very easy and very fun to get hyped on a guy after he has one of the best games you could possibly have Um we're we're all feeling good about Josh Baez right now I am Nate: Yes. ben: Uh his slug was 843 Sorry Nate: There it goes ben: over [00:49:00] that time period And uh uh anyways I do think we are s we are starting to get to the the territory where he is forcing the situation where he is Nate: Mm-hmm. ben: playing so well that you kind of can't ignore it He's got 23 home runs on the year 12 steals Uh he's playing center field about half the time down there I don't You know whe when does it Is is Nate: Yeah ben: the stri like when does it happen When when Like I I feel like it could be any day It could also be a couple of months because of reasons But Nate: Yeah I think there, there's like, there's two ways to think about it. Um, and the Cardinals are in a great spot with this, you know? Um, basically, we've, we've said it several times now, but the starting lineup for the St. Louis Cardinals is good. Everyone is, everyone is providing some sort of [00:50:00] value, right? Um, and that has put a lot less pressure on some of your defense first guys. Um, specifically in this conversation, Nathan Church. Nathan Church is a fantastic center fielder, is a suspect, uh, offensive threat, but is not horrible. He's right around a 700 OPS, which if you are also a Gold Glove level center fielder, that's a pretty valuable Major League Baseball player. Of course, you would love your center fielder to also be raking, but again, fr- if you can be around 700 OPS and be Gold Glove center fielder and the rest of your team's lineup is really good, like any team is gonna be happy with that, and the Cardinals should be pretty happy with that. Like, there's no real reason right now to say, "Nathan Church, you've lost your job." He's, he's fine, you know? Um, but you've got this guy who looks like might be one of the better hitters on the t- on an already good team, [00:51:00] and could really take the Cardinals to an even further level if he's even a two-thirds of this at the Major League level, right? We've-- Half of this at the Major League level ben: w when the kid is as hot as he is right now want him to just carry that confidence and that that heater he's on into the big leagues and just keep going Or Nate: Yeah ben: him to have a setback or prove it or lower that str like what do you wanna see Cause I I think based on the video a and what we've s been able to watch from Josh Baez I think strikeouts are gonna be a part of his game Um a and that's that is not a deal breaker by any means There's there's a lot of strikeouts in the game right now But if he can play center field if he can hit the ball over the wall if he can steal a base um and just generally be scary you know you can run a to 30 rate a and be fine with [00:52:00] it So I wonder what the Cardinals appetite for that's going to be um and and when they feel like I I think it's probably less to do with Nathan Church and more to do with have we seen the things that we need to see from Josh Baez to feel confident in his ability to not um be totally derailed by a a promotion to the the big leagues Nate: Yeah I personally think that I would like to see him, if he can... If two and a half weeks at 25%, like great. 25% I think is a great number for him. ben: Yeah Nate: because what you assume then is at the Major League level, he's gonna be probably closer to 28 to 30, uh, which is near the red zone, but as the list you threw out last week, some of the best hitters in baseball are around a 30%. You know? It just, it's a very fine line to walk. Um, so I'd like to see him carry an, uh, an impressive strikeout rate [00:53:00] at triple A before we move him over to Majors, where he will likely be, uh, an edge, edge guy that will need, um, you know, real success. Um, and, and so then you're like, well, when do we... 'Cause he's also a guy, he has, he's done the thing where he has failed horribly at a league, and he's, for a while, and he's built himself back up. So when do you have the appetite to bring that at the Major League level? 'Cause yeah, he's hot, he's all that, but I think it's, it'd be very fair to assume that whenever he does come up, there's going to be an adjustment period, and potentially an extended one. So just when do you have the appetite for that? Um, you know, you could argue just get it done now, uh, 'cause then hopefully by August or September or something like that, he's figured it out, he's a productive hitter, and he's actually a part of maybe your playoff run. Or [00:54:00] the counterpoint would be, we don't need it right now. The team is working. Let's see what we've got. Let's keep it going, and we'll do the more traditional cup of coffee sort of thing in September, maybe late August, where we get him that exposure and then say, "All right, 2027, you're coming into camp competing for a spot," sort of thing. ben: I I feel like that that timeline is probably gonna be quicker than that And then we're gonna have to have the whole conversation about do we carry three catchers still Um you know and we'll we'll we'll push that off until the conversation gets closer of of Baez actually coming up But Nate: Yeah ben: at the the way that the team is organized and you know I think I would probably do something with Pedro and and and bring Josh up but Or Joshua sorry Um Nate: and that might be a ben: that Nate: Yeah, 'cause that could be, that could make a lot of sense at the trade deadline, where you are selling, quote-unquote, by moving Pages to a team who needs a catcher, um, [00:55:00] to a competing team who wants a solid catcher, which Pages is. Um, and but it's actually refitting your lineup in a way, um, 'cause just dropping Pages or even putting him at triple A doesn't make a lot of sense from, like, a long-term val- You'd rather convert him into future value for your team than just sorta, "Sorry about ya," you know? ben: Right Nate: yeah. Uh, all right. What else do you wanna talk about here before we move into the, uh, second half? Any other, any other major ben: Just some housekeeping notes Uh we'll note that Hunter Dobbins has been moved back down to triple A Chris Roycroft has taken his spot It looks like Dobbins is not scheduled to start again for the Cardinals for at least a minute Uh and the Cardinals have also moved Ramón Urías to the 60day IL with right elbow lateral appendicitis Appen appe appenda Nate: Ugh. ben: something So some medical term that I'm not going to [00:56:00] attempt to say So I'm curious to see how the Cardinals handle Dobbins Nate: epiconde this. Epicondytis. ben: Epicondylitis Epicondo Nate: Epicondytis. ben: epicondylitis Nate: Epiconda ben: that's why people come here Nate: Epicondylitis. It's an L. Epicondylitis. I ben: yeah Nate: epicondylitis ben: I think I said that earlier but it's fine Nate: Pretty sure I got it first. ben: Um curious to see you know uh w we you know Kyle Leahy he he's fading a bit Does Nate: Yeah ben: that role What does that all look like Um uh the answer is not right now uh at least according to the Cardinals But I will be curious you know we got a Leahy start that's about to start as you and I are chatting Um if he gets his butt kicked by what might be the worst offense in baseball right now of of the Padres maybe that conversation starts to change quicker than than than Nate: Yeah. ben: um Nate: Yeah, that game is about to start, [00:57:00] so we'll see. ben: that's all I got for you Nate: all right. Well, we are going to talk about the upcoming series, touch on some league news, and then of course play a little game. But before we get to that, we wanna remind our listeners that this show is listener supported. You, whoever you are out there. Maybe you're the person who sent that text message earlier. Um, if you enjoy the show and wanna support it directly, consider subscribing at the Patreon, patreon.com/talkingaboutbirds. Patrons of every level, uh, every paid level get access to our private chat server. It's called the Birdscord. Runs through Discord. Uh, it's a great place to follow games, be up to date on Cardinal news, and hang out and chat with other Cardinal fans, other cool people. Uh, it is really where I spend most of my social media time at this point is in the Birdscord. Uh, it's a lot of fun. Um, if you want to re- help the show in other ways, consider joining, uh, or leaving us a review on your favorite podcast platform. It surprisingly really does help. [00:58:00] Uh, if you're a new listener or watcher on YouTube, would love it if you would hit that subscribe or follow button. And of course, tell your friends, tell your family. Uh, Hambone, where else can people find us online? ben: Yeah we're on all those social media things We have Blue Sky Uh we have Instagram We're on TikTok of course You can watch this episode if you're one of those freaks um on YouTube You weirdo Um you can find all the podcast information Tshirts and more at talkingaboutbirdscom You can ema email us at talkaboutbirdsgmailcom And of course you can call us and leave a voicemail or send us a text message to 84848BIRDS That's 8484824737 Nate: 8-4-8, 48 birds. All right, Hambone, the Cardinals continue their soft schedule, going to KC for three, a little [00:59:00] I-70 series. Um, we've talked about the Royals a fair bit on this show. Um, Bobby Witt, uh, you know, a consistent frontrunner for MVP, one of the best overall baseball players in the league. Um, and then after that, it gets a little interesting. The, the Royals have dealt with injuries, uh, and issues kind of across the board. Um, you wanna start with the pitching matchups? What should we see in KC this weekend? ben: Yeah And I think it just goes you know it's worth noting that the Royals are in the basement of the weak AL Central right now It's Nate: Yeah ben: been good for them Uh Thursday night game it's gonna be Noah Cameron against Matthew Liberatore On Friday it's gonna be Seth Lugo against Michael McGreevy which did you see Seth Lugo get hit in the head by that Nate: I did ben: that hit off of uh uh uh Nemo God God that was Nate: [01:00:00] Yeah ben: around and you saw the well that was that was that was not good That was Nate: Yeah. ben: that Saturday's Nate: it ben: Don't like it at all Saturday's off for your Cardinals Uh they come back Sunday It's gonna be Steven Kolek against Dustin May DMay Big Red Um Nate: Yeah ben: good about all of those matchups Uh Steven Kolek r looked really good against the Cardinals last time they Nate: Yeah ben: but with the Cardinals staff is right now you obviously feel good about the Dustin May start Um I feel pretty good throughout that that series Nate: Yeah this is a team that should be better than it's, than it has been. Um, 'cause despite the injuries, Kolraghns is out, uh, Pasquantino, who was having a rough season, is out. Uh, the top half of this lineup, like, i- most teams would be happy to have this. Carter Jensen, Bobby Witt, uh, Jack Caglionone, who's been really heating up. I don't know how much you've been following him, but he, uh, is hitting, like, 500 over the last two weeks or [01:01:00] something like that. Totally, totally crazy. And then Michael Garcia, who is having an okay season, but from a talent perspective is, is quite good. Um, so, you know, and then they still have, uh, Salvy Perez, who can hit the ball hard, uh, and then our good friend Lane Thomas, um, laying the train. So it's like, it's a reasonable lineup. It's a reasonable staff. I mean, Noah Cameron's been pretty good. Kolek has been pretty good. And Lugo is kind of what he's always been. So, like, it's not a bad team. They just haven't been putting it together. Um, I, I ben: the Nate: I, I, do take the Cardinals on this one. Yeah, you're right. Yeah, the bullpen's pretty bad. Um- ben: bullpen's pretty bad When you look at their leaguewide numbers uh their bullpen has the 27th best ERA 29th best WHIP They don't really strike people out They give up a lot of hits and homers Um and yeah it's you know unfortunately outside of Bobby Witt and maybe Jack will will get them going they're just not hitting for much power and even Bobby [01:02:00] Witt was kind of slow to the game on power Um Nate: Yeah. ben: amazing It Nate: Yeah ben: you know it is worth saying and and enjoying his uh his greatness Nate: Yeah. Um, so after that, the D-Backs, or as we call them in this house, of course, the Arizona Butts and Cracks, ben: Of course Nate: um, the Butts and Cracks are coming to St. Louis, ben: Yeah Nate: for four games. We love a four-game series, don't we, folks? Um, and the return of Nolan Arenado ben: He's he'll get a standing O right Nate: Um, yes. I don't, like, there, there'd be no reason not to. Where's... Almost every former Cardinal does, you know? Um, even, like, the C-level, like, contributors. Um, Arenado I think will get an extended one, and I will, I imagine it will be one of those, like, every game and probably a couple at-bats, you know ben: I hope so Um he deserves it Nate: [01:03:00] Yeah ben: Um Monday night uh it's a fourgame series like Night said Nate said Monday night it's Merrill Kelly against Andre Pallante Tuesday it's Eduardo Rodriguez and Kyle Leahy Wednesday Michael Soroka against Matthew Liberatore and then Thursday will be Zach Gallen against Michael McGreevy Nate: Yeah, it's an interesting matchup. Um, there's, you know, Soroka's been pretty good this year. Um, you know, he, he's been a, just an interesting guy, you know. At one point looked like the next great Braves pitcher and then sort of collapsed and is now back with the Diamondbacks having a ben: like he popped his Achilles twice or Nate: So yeah, I I yeah. Um, but they're, you know, they're having an interesting season. They still have Corbin Carroll, one of the better hitters in baseball. They've got, um, Ketel Marte, one of the better hitters in baseball, though he's not having the best season. Um, [01:04:00] and they're right, what are they? They're 37 and 36, so ben: They're they're a fine team Nate: Yeah ben: I don't understand why they haven't gone further in I understand that they have uh the Dodgers in their division and and you rightfully so are afraid of the Padres for various reasons and Corbin Burnes is injured right now But I've been confused for the past two and a half years of why they haven't shoved in harder uh th than like like they're they're carrying a a a very important to their club Pavin Smith right now Nate: Yeah ben: like this team could do better than that Um and you're right The the Soroka thing is interesting but it you know when they signed him nobody was I didn't think that was a very interesting signing Nate: Yeah ben: kinda he was like an okay reliever Um credit to them for for getting you Nate: Yeah. ben: some some juice out of his uh baseball husk But uh yeah [01:05:00] I I find this team a little bit disappointing Something that's kinda fun Jordan Lawler is back Nate: Yeah ben: Uh he just came off the IL Um and he could be a very exciting young fun player with power and speed and defense and all the all the tools Nate: Yeah. Th- their team is just chock-full of guys that are fine, ben: Yes Nate: And, and that's how you become a 500 team. There's like, outside of Carroll, who is a legit superstar potential, you know, MVP-type guy, everybody else has just been like, "Yeah, they're pretty good." You know Yeah ben: I would not be mad if we had Gabriel Moreno on our team I Nate: Right ben: a bit but he is not a superstar level player Nate: Yeah. Um, Tommy Troy, you know, a ben: guy Nate: prospect of some nature, you know, or of some, some clout at one point, but now, you know, hitting ninth for them. So just sort of, yeah, just not an exciting team ben: Yeah is uh why am I not seeing Did I d I guess I did not see that they put Waldo [01:06:00] Schmidt back uh Nate: Yeah ben: down I thought he was playing all right but obviously I am wrong Um yeah They're a team definitely play in the NL West Nate: No one's d- arguing that. If ben: yeah Nate: you're out there trying to argue they're not playing in the NL West, you got, you got something coming. ben: You do Nate: Yeah. ben: wrong Nate: You're wrong. There it is. That's what it was. That's what was coming ben: Yeah sorry Nate: Not sorry. Um, all right, Hambone. Should be seven games against some mediocre teams. Should be, again, another week of good Cardinal baseball. We'll see. We of course thought that would be the same against the Twins. There's still issues sometimes. Um, what do we w- what's going on around the league? Let's do some league news ben: Well yeah I I kinda hinted at this one earlier but I I really just wanted to hit it again because it's it's kind of cra this is a weird year But Miles Michaelis and the Nationals are 39 and 35 and are currently [01:07:00] in possession of a wild card spot Did not think that that was going to happen Nate: No ben: this season I'm not sure if it's going to continue to happen We talked about James Wood already this year He's Or a couple of times this year he's having a nice season CJ Abrams having a really nice Nate: Yep. ben: They're having s you know Dale and Lyle kinda breaking out a Nate: Yep ben: having some pitching performances I've been really locked into the Curtis Mead finally hitting and and showing some power and playing third base and and first base Nate: Yeah ben: they kinda got a good little team all of a sudden Uh it helps when you have you know two MVPtype candidates playing shortstop and right field Nate: Mmhmm ben: goes a long way Um but I feel like this kinda snuck up on me Like I look down and and check on the Nats and yeah they're in the playoffs right now Nate: Yeah, they have like a top six offense in the league right now, you know? And like you said, it's very, very top-heavy, but I mean, at [01:08:00] the end of the day, it's a top six offense, so kinda doesn't matter how you cook it, it's what's coming out. So, uh, they're interesting. It is, it does seem like one of those teams where you, you will look in two months and be like, "Oh, yeah, I mean, you know, that wasn't sustainable." ben: Yeah Nate: but maybe ben: I buy Wood and Garcia Nate: I buy wood. ben: I buy Wood Nate: I buy stone. ben: I I Nate: I buy fire ben: I think Dylan Crews might be breaking out a little Nate: Yeah ben: Um there's there's some good players over there They've been drafting high for a long Nate: They have been. They've been rebuilding for ben: Ruiz is not a terrible player this year which is the first time we can say that Nate: Yeah. ben: a number of years Nate: They have been rebuilding since 2019 basically, so ben: Yeah Um but anyway I I thought that was worth pointing out And while we're on this subject I also thought it was worth pointing out that the White Sox Nathan the Chicago White Sox are in first place in the [01:09:00] AL Central Um definitely did not expect that to happen this year We've talked about Murakami has been down for a little bit Uh they're getting breakout performances from Miguel Vargas Uh uh Davis Martin has had a really good start to the year Sam Antonacci who is uh uh my pet player this season Nate: Mm-hmm. ben: has been playing really well Um but yeah I just wanted to kinda call out that two teams that have been basement dwellers for a while are playoff bound right now Nate: Yeah. And AL Central, it's a different story from the Nationals. Like, it feels a little more sustainable for the White Sox than it does for the Nationals, partly because of the division they're in, but also, you know, like Vargas, Antonacci, Murakami when he's back. These feel like real breakouts that have some sustain to them. I'm, I question Davis-Martin long term, but he's obviously pitching [01:10:00] right now. Um, but with such a weak division, um, you know, could be real. At the very least, it's just, like they were s- I mean, they were literally like the laughing stock of the league, like a record-setting bad team. And, and while that can be fun, you know, we all had a good time laughing about the White Sox, it's like baseball's better when there are, when most teams are pretty good, you know? You really don't want this like just garbage pile team that's on pace for 115 losses or whatever. Like, it's just, it's funny, but it's not ideal, you know? So it's nice to see them playing well. ben: and seeing it from like guys like you know we mentioned Vargas Colton Montgomery uh or Colson Montgomery Like they're doing it by know developing these young guys and and and finding guys And um you know Benintendi is not completely worthless at the moment which is which Nate: Yeah ben: Um all right let's move back to the NL [01:11:00] Central Uh the Miz Jakub Mierzewski Uh you know Nate and I keep talking about he's g it feels like he's gonna break I don't want him to break I wanna Nate: Yeah ben: clear about my intentions here Uh but it he is just getting better and better and better He even said uh a a after this game in an interview he didn't feel like he had his best stuff coming into it which is shocking because he was able to throw a Maddox uh with a record K's A Maddox is a complete game w uh under 100 pitches and he has the most strikeouts uh ever to do that 15 K's Um I think the total was 96 pitches if I I should have this in front of me But uh an absolute dominating Nate: Yeah ben: maybe the best pitching performance of the year Maybe w that might hold out through the remainder of the Nate: Right. Yeah ben: to get better than this Um by the way he's 24 years old and uh [01:12:00] he's on your least favorite team the Milwaukee Brewers Nate: It's drives me crazy. Yeah, I, I, I think I saw, like, you know, there's Game Score. Um, this is like the 17th best Game Score of all time, you know, which is pretty incredible. Um, yeah. Yep, he's good. He threw a hu- he threw 104.5 miles per hour in that game, uh, which, you know, uh, pretty fast. I couldn't hit it ben: No It okay it was 95 pitches I I Nate: Okay ben: I had that number right 95 pitches and somehow got 15 strikeouts Nate: Crazy ben: time Uh unbelievable start Nate: Yeah. I should, I, I do, before you go to the next one, I, I realize that, um, 'cause we, we kinda skipped around on our outline. We had to skip some stuff for time, which we do do. You might not believe it, listeners, but we do do that. Um, ben: You do Nate: do do. Uh, Dustin May had a complete game shutout in this last week, so, uh, we love that, don't we, [01:13:00] folks? Um, he's good. ben: into Destin May next week but Nate: Yeah. ben: might be pretty good Nate: Yeah, I think so too. All right. What do you got? ben: Max Scherzer has gotten a career strikeout 3500 He's sitting at 3503 right now Um one of the last guys Nate: Yeah ben: do this This this might be a animal um all of a sudden But kinda cool He's 41 years old has not had a great uh run with the Blue Jays this year We'll we'll see what happens Um but he got to 3500 and that's kind of amazing Nate: Yeah I, I agree with, like, everyone's saying that, like, last of a breed. I, I think that there probably will be another guy who can throw seven innings every game and, you know, and he, he's another guy who didn't really click until he was, like, 28 or whatever, you know? ben: if you have your way Nate Nate: No, of course not. And it, and I hope may there [01:14:00] never be another is how I feel. But, ben: Wow Nate: um, I, I, I recognize that my personal theory of the evolution of the game may take a little longer, and I suspect there may be another guy like this. Um, but it w- it's obviously gonna be fewer and farbe- far between, uh, for each one ben: land of that one Um Nate: I said ben: number 11 on the alltime strikeout list uh which is just uh Nate: Pretty good. ben: kind of wild Nate: Would you vote for him for the Hall of Fame? ben: I think I Nate: I think I would do. ben: I think I could go to sleep at night doing Nate: Yeah ben: Uh all right we have a a team finally uh I think this is the first one at least that I've seen reported The Giants are reportedly moving towards Nate: Yeah ben: deadline They've said that uh basically everybody is available I think except for Logan Webb Um I I thought the fact that it was reported that they're talking about moving on from Raffi Devers was pretty funny Matt Chapman was also announced in that same release [01:15:00] Uh Robbie Ray we mentioned him earlier And I I think I'm confident in saying this now Nathan um Buster Posey is bad at his job Nate: Get him. Um, ben: baseball player Nate: yeah, the, the Devers one in particular is pretty funny. Um, there's been a bunch of reporting, 'cause it's basically been exactly a year now since that, since that trade. And, uh, Devers has been bad basically for the Giants, at least this year. Last year he was pretty good, but this year he's been bad. And all but one of the prospects that the Red Sox got in the deal are also out of baseball, or at least the Red Sox organization. So this has been basically bad for both sides, a classic lose-lose trade. ben: well you already know how we feel about Greg Breslow Nate: Yeah ben: the worst Bobo in Nate: M- ben: right now Nate: yeah, did we talk about it? They're, they're looking to maybe hire a guy to basically... Did we talk about this? They wanna hire basically-- [01:16:00] There was a report that one theory is that the normies in the front office can't really understand Breslow's depth of ben: Oh my Nate: intelligence and th- they need, they need a guy who can really act as like a Breslow interpreter to the, to the layman. Um, ben: he's some type of savant that he can't he really he can't communicate with the plebs He's a baseball player Nate: Yeah. Yeah ben: I've never seen somebody live in corporate speak Maybe if he just spoke like a human being rather uh uh the way in which he decides to address at least the press which I imagine I feel bad for his wife you know He just seems like a miserable person Nate: He's really, his friends and family are probably the biggest victims in this whole thing. Imagine having to be around that guy, you know? ben: I I you know ever since I [01:17:00] saw him in that that Netflix doc and just the way he manages his team I think he's bad at this I Nate: Yeah ben: pretty good about saying that I also think that any success that he's had is purely on Heim Bloom's coattails He's got nothing to stand on Nate: Yeah I can't wait for the Cardinals to, ben: people Nate: the Cardinals are gonna acquire Sonny Gray at the deadline for nothing is what I'm really hoping ben: It would be the funniest Nate: Yeah. ben: that Heim Bloom could do Nate: Yeah ben: while you're at it let's bring Willie Contreras back Nate: Sh- dude, ben: get the band back Nate: he's having a great season ben: He really is I thought he would in that ballpark It makes a lot of sense Nate: Yeah. ben: but I'm I'm very happy for Co Contreras Nate: Yeah ben: All right uh last thing I wanted to talk about Uh it's it's a little like a little axe to grind Nate but I'll I'll make this quick Nate: Okay. ben: Athletes Unlimited Softball League Have you heard of this Nate: No ben: This is my problem We follow baseball I think about as closely as you can Um the Athletes Unlimited [01:18:00] Softball League AUSL the premier professional women's softball league in the world There's a 25game season in the quest for the AUSL Championship That's I'm pulling directly from their website This has started This has begun They are playing games It is streaming on MLBtv The only reason I am aware of this is because I was flicking around and I went like three pages deep on my Apple TV MLBtv app and found it I think that they've done a horrible job of promoting this The fact that I literally You don't know it exists I just learned it exists Um what the hell are they doing Like why even play if you're not going to tell anybody it's happening Nate: Yeah ben: reporting on this It hasn't come up in the Bird Score I I've seen nothing on Nate: Interesting ben: curious some pretty highlevel softball happening on the MLBtv app You just Nate: Okay. ben: all the way down Um more just [01:19:00] like I feel like baseball's been a little better about promoting itself and promoting like the sports around it And Nate: Sure ben: um y you know I'm not like dying to watch softball games But I think like if you're gonna do this like at le Like do a little MLB tiein Do something to bring some attention to it somehow Um I feel like they've totally fumbled the ball on this one Um but anyways I I I guess a little PSA and a and a complainy Nate: Yeah. ben: announce Nate: It's good to know. I will check it out. Um, very intriguing. We're, we're gonna get my, um, my older daughter's probably gonna start playing softball soon. She's been playing baseball, but it's really hard, unfortunately, to continue that for a, a young girl. It- almost everybody gets funneled into softball. ben: I was uh I was watching highlights last night and their outfield wall I think the the the right field corner it's like 190 feet or something like that Obviously the dimensions are different And this woman hit like a 320foot Nate: Hell yeah. ben: which if [01:20:00] you think about that from like the distance of the wall like that is Nate: Yeah. Yeah. ben: run in a Major Nate: That's a yeah, that's what I was gonna say. That's, yeah. Yeah. Nice. ben: it's Yeah check it out Nate: Cool. Well, thanks for sharing. I will check that out. Um, all right. We're gonna wrap up this episode, Hambone. Uh, so there's a common phrase, uh, in baseball is you are who you, what your record says by Flag Day, which was over the weekend. So if we- we've crossed that threshold, we should be reasonably positive that what we've seen out of the first 70 games or so is basically what this team is. So I thought, let's look under the hood. Let's look into some of the stats. We've done this actually earlier in the season, but I think we have more ground to stand on now. Let's see where the team stands in league rankings across a number of different metrics. Doing another epis- edition of Who Charted: Flag Day Edition. Uh, so I'm gonna give you a [01:21:00] stat. We're gonna go between some surface stats and some underlying metrics, and I want you to tell me where you think the team is in all of baseball on this stat. Does that make sense? ben: Yes sir Nate: Okay. So we're gonna start with a simple one. Runs scored. Where is the team in baseball from runs scored perspective? ben: Yeah I feel like you know we've been talking about this team's offense Runs scored is a pretty good way to just put the offense into a single stat They're a top 15 team uh offensively I'm gonna guess that they're a little bit over the midway point and I'm gonna say that they are 12th in MLB from a runs scored perspective Nate: They are actually smack dab exactly at 15th. Yeah. ben: it Nate: Yep. So 15th overall in runs scored. [01:22:00] Um, let's go to home runs. Where are they in home runs? This is in all of baseball ben: Yeah I mean we've been homering more than I thought we would Um oh God I don't know Nate Um there's some homerhappy teams in baseball There are some teams that really have no power also um and it's been early Uh I'm gonna say that the Cardinals are 10th Nate: They are 16th. ben: Oh way off Nate: Yeah. ben: Terrible Nate: Um, all right, let's look under the hood a little bit here. Um, where are the Cardinals in expected WOBA? So we've looked at stats, we've looked at outcomes, but now we're looking at actual process. ben: Yeah Nate: from an expected WOBA standpoint, where are the Cardinals? ben: Yeah Uh we just talked about Burley He's got he's [01:23:00] he's got a really nice xWOBE We know that Jordan Walker has a really nice uh nice xWOBE I the same is true for Mr Wetherholt Um the same is true for Ivan I don't know They might be pretty good at this specific stat if I had to guess Uh I will say God I ugh I feel like all these numbers might just be clustered together I I don't know what to do Um I'm gonna say 13 overall Nathan Nate: Hambone, I got good news for you. They are fifth in baseball in expected wOBA. They have a three, ben: shocking Nate: they have a 330 expected wOBA, which puts them .001 behind the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves. So they are, you know, one home run today away from being tied for third in baseball. Um, there's a bigger gap between, uh, the Dodgers and the Yankees up top, and, and frankly, [01:24:00] like, a lot of teams are sitting around this. You know, if they drop five points, they'll drop down to, ben: sure Nate: you know 15th or whatever. But as we stand here today, they are fifth overall in baseball in expected wOBA ben: Wow that's amazing Nate: Yeah. So with that, yeah, well, let's keep going. Uh, how about hard hit percentage? ben: Well geez I mean h uh xWOB and hardhit percentage are are not onetoone but they're probably pretty close Uh so I'm going to say that the Cardinals are top 10 in hardhit percentage I mean Jordan Walker alone is is moving that number pretty high Uh I'm I'll go seven Nate: You actually nailed it with this one. The Cardinals are seventh in hard hit percentage with a, uh, 41% hard hit. ben: Yeah Nate: I'm gonna, I'm gonna do one more for you from the offensive side. How about exit velocity? Average exit velocity[01:25:00] ben: Oh I mean I kinda just wanna say seventh also um because they seem to correlate pretty closely I'll say seventh again Nate: So they are in a gigantic tie for fifth. So there are five teams tied for five. This is of crazy. ben: I'm right Nate: They're in the mi-- They are encompassed in there is seventh place, so I guess, sure. Uh, it's actually kind of phenomenal. There are five teams that have exactly an 89.6, uh, uh, average exit velocity. ben: really Nate: 89.6. And, uh, for, if you're curious, um, the, uh, let me pull it up real quick. The Baltimore Orioles have the highest at 90.1. ben: Would not have guessed Nate: No, ben: in Nate: me me, neither. Um, Reds are top three. KC, top four. So, um, so [01:26:00] what do we have here? We have some mediocre, some mid results in runs scored and home runs. But on almost every meaningful underlying metric as far as predicting, uh, future performance goes, expected WOBA, hard hit, exit velocity, Cardinals are top five. So ben: would think you know as it gets warmer Nate: That's ben: you regress to the mean a little bit that maybe the Cardinals are gonna come bumbling in or or not bumbling the opposite of bumbling uh uh storming into the the latter half of baseball Nate: M- maybe. Perform- process would indicate they are hitting the ball at a top five offensive level. ben: I like that Nate: We like that a lot. Let's go to the pitching. Um, we're gonna again stick with, um, just surface level results. Starting pitching, where do you think the ERA is? ben: ERA [01:27:00] Uh that that feels Half to a little bit lower I'm going to say the ERA is uh I'll I'll just go 16th Give me 16th Nate: They are ninth in baseball in start, in starting pitching ERA. ben: Just the starting pitchers not Nate: Just Just, the starting pitching ben: That I obviously wrong on that one That's that's surprising Nate: Yeah, same. Um, and let's do K per nine ben: Okay this one I know is lower Um I'm gonna say 22nd in baseball Nate: Keep going. 27th. ben: 27th Nate: Yeah ben: Yeah Yeah that first month I think they were 29th or 30th Nate: Yeah ben: no matter what happens after that you're you're playing a little behind Nate: Yeah. I'll just give you one here. From walks per nine, they're seventh. So they are top 10 in ERA and top 10 in walks per nine. Basically everything else is in the [01:28:00] 20s and, low 20s. ben: Right Nate: relief pitchers, let's stick with ERA. What are we looking at, Hambone? ben: This one's not gonna be great. Uh, nine for starting pitchers. I, I think this is gonna be in the back half. Um, I'm gonna go 18 for Nate: very close. 17th overall. ben: okay Nate: All right, now we're gonna look at two underlying numbers, and this is for the pitching staff altogether, okay? Um, what is their, uh, uh, where'd my thing go? I scrolled down and lost it. Okay. What is their... My spreadsheet. What is their expected WOBA against, right? So ben: but against. Nate: what's the expected WOBA against our pitchers? Where do they rank? ben: Um, oof [01:29:00] That's interesting. I think it's going to be... Am I guessing the number or the place? I, I just, my Nate: The pla- the place. How, where do they rank in the entirety of baseball? ben: No, this is not really a number I think about league-wide, but my guess is, like, I feel like it's, like, in between 320 and 340. How that ranks league-wide, I don't know. But I'm going to say, as a s- I'm gonna, I'm just gonna say 15, 'cause I, I really don't know. I'm, I'm Nate: So you, you cast a wide net with 320 to 340, but you are accurate. They have a, a 330... ben: wide of a net Nate: They have a 339, uh, expected WOBA against, which puts them at 20, ben: that to Nate: yeah, 27th ben: Yeah. Yep, that sounds about right Nate: Uh, and then the last one, hard hit against ben: Hard hit against. I'm gonna guess this is gonna be a little bit higher. We have some ground ball pitchers, McGreevy and Polante in particular. They give up some [01:30:00] hard hit grounders, so the number's probably higher. Uh, I'm gonna say this is 25 in N- N- in MLB Nate: Hambone, the Cardinals are 30th in hard hit against. ben: Wow Nate: am-- They are giving up hard hit at 43.5%, and there's a pretty big gap. The second worst, uh, is at 42.7, so almost a full percentage point, and that is your Colorado Rockies. Um, ben: Yeah Nate: so yeah. So I was-- This was intriguing, um, and I think it tells an interesting story. Surface level, the pitching has been okay. We've all seen that. They've been better than we've expected from a result standpoint, but they have the-- They're giving up the most hard-hit contact in baseball and overall have one of the worst expected WOBA's against. Um, whereas the offense has b- [01:31:00] probably been getting unlucky. This offense is probably better than it even looks on paper right now. Um, so that's the team. If w- if we're to believe Flag Day is the, is the marker, uh, this is a team that has a legit top five offense or is trending in the direction of a top five offense is probably the better way to put it, and a pitching staff that is getting the job done but, uh, has some scary underlying metrics that, um, are going to need to be addressed. Now, again, I'm looking at the full 70 games here. I am not looking at trends. I would imagine the expected WOBA and hard hit against the Cardinals has gone down over the last month or so. But if we look at the full sample size, one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball from a from a expected outcome standpoint ben: Yeah, and I think, you know, we've talked, the, the lack of [01:32:00] K's really, I, I think it tells the story of, of the problem with this pitching staff. And it would be really nice if Dobbins can come up and, Nate: Yeah ben: that tune a little bit or, or Bryson Mouts or, or, or whoever. Uh, Quinn Matthews has looked a lot better, Nate: Yeah ben: very recently. May- maybe it's one of these guys are gonna come up and, and start Nate: Maybe. ben: out Nate: They're g- as it stands, they're giving up hard contact and not striking anyone out. It's a, ben: N- Nate: it's a bad mix ben: yeah, that's really not good. Um, we can do better, Nate: We, yep. ben: We're all counting on you Nate: Low bar to clear as far as doing better. ben: Yeah. Nate: 30th. ben: Yeah. Nate: all right. Well, interesting. We'll, we'll check in on that again in a couple months. Um, I think those are interesting stats to look at. Uh, so that's gonna do it for this week's episode though. Thank you everybody of course for listening, for being here the entire time. We'll be back next week. Hopefully another good week of Cardinal baseball. Check out all our links and everything at [01:33:00] talkingaboutbirds.com, and thank you to the patrons who support the show every single week. We'll see you in the Birds Cord. Uh, and until next week, go Cardinals ben: Retweet Nate: All right [01:34:00]