Latest / The Tailgate Cam Podcast / AFC West Preview and Predictions, MLB Week Update + Seconds of Soccer and NL MVP Debate

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AFC West Preview and Predictions, MLB Week Update + Seconds of Soccer and NL MVP Debate · The Tailgate Cam Podcast

0:00
SPEAKER_00: On this episode of the Tailgate podcast, we are proud to announce our new sponsor, Def Charts, the most innovative site to track player movements, ratings, where those NFL players stack up on their own teams.
0:14
SPEAKER_00: And they also have some pretty awesome custom team merch.
0:18
SPEAKER_00: I like to think of it as PFF meeting our lads, but with a little bit more depth.
0:23
SPEAKER_00: Check them out at def dash charts.com or death underscore charts on Twitter and Instagram.
1:01
SPEAKER_00: We got a busy show today.
1:03
SPEAKER_00: We are going to go through some MLB scores from the week that is talk about the upcoming English Premier League opening weekend.
1:12
SPEAKER_00: And then the main story today, we are going to be talking the AFC West, Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers.
1:23
SPEAKER_00: All ahead.
1:24
SPEAKER_00: And then maybe a little bit of tailgate talk for who should win the NLMVP.
1:31
SPEAKER_00: Stick around.
1:49
SPEAKER_00: Stamps his argument for the NL MVP with a walk-off and extra innings against the White Sox as the Cubs take the first two and win the series against the Pale Hoes.
2:00
SPEAKER_00: The Marlins fall four games back in the NL wildcard as they are swept by the Phillies.
2:08
SPEAKER_00: My Yankees much needed a winning series against the AL East Foe and they took the first two already against Baltimore.
2:16
SPEAKER_00: There will still be one more game after this episode is released on Thursday, but the Yankees have already wrapped up the series, so no matter waiting around for that pesky third game.
2:28
SPEAKER_00: The Twins have climbed up into a tie with the Texas Rangers for the last wild card spot in the EAL after they go to Atlanta and sweep the Atlanta Braves.
2:40
SPEAKER_00: The Braves are struggling as of late after getting swept by the Diamondbacks and now getting swept again by the Twins.
2:48
SPEAKER_00: Paul Skeens elsewhere finally finds his winning ways, and the Pirates take two from the Tigers as they bounce them further down the AL wildcard standings.
2:59
SPEAKER_00: And lastly, kind of a strange situation going on with Diamondbacks star second base, Catel Marte, who is missing from the team.
3:09
SPEAKER_00: And seemingly the manager Toy Lovella doesn't know what's going on with him.
3:14
SPEAKER_00: Uh, but they dropped two out of three in Boston in a very critical series for the Diamondbacks.
3:21
SPEAKER_00: Not sure what's happening there with Katel Marte.
3:24
SPEAKER_00: He's a great second baseman, great batter.
3:27
SPEAKER_00: Hope everything's all right with him.
3:29
SPEAKER_00: Uh I know he's dealt with some pretty intense fan harassment earlier this season that even brought him to tears and had him leave a game.
3:38
SPEAKER_00: So I hope for his sake and his family's sake, everything's going well with Catel Marte, and that situation gets resolved sooner rather than later.
3:48
SPEAKER_00: Well, like I said at the start of the show, it's time to talk a little bit of soccer.
3:52
SPEAKER_00: We will start stateside.
3:54
SPEAKER_00: The MLS began their midweek match days yesterday, as they do towards the end of their regular season.
4:01
SPEAKER_00: Nashville continues to hold the top seed in the Eastern Conference as they get a 1-0 win over the New York Red Bulls.
4:09
SPEAKER_00: Lionel Messi, a guy that everybody listened to this surely knows, scores his 13th goal of the season, pulling him into second place in all of the MLS and goals scored as the inner Miami lead to a 2-2 tie with FC Philly.
4:27
SPEAKER_00: The New England Revolution dominate DC United 3-0 to continue pacing the Eastern Conference as they hold the third seed.
4:37
SPEAKER_00: And in the West, top two seeds Houston and Vancouver faced off.
4:43
SPEAKER_00: And Houston Dynamo.
4:45
SPEAKER_00: They were Dynamo.
4:47
SPEAKER_00: Got a huge win, knocking off the first seed Vancouver Whitecaps.
4:53
SPEAKER_00: And third seed LAFC took on Colorado, but they fall short one to nothing on the road in Denver.
5:01
SPEAKER_00: And then lastly, St.
5:02
SPEAKER_00: Louis City takes on fierce rival but lowly competitors.
5:08
SPEAKER_00: The slumping and last place Sporting Kansas City.
5:12
SPEAKER_00: And they draw a 1-1 tie between St.
5:15
SPEAKER_00: Louis City and Sporting Kansas City.
5:18
SPEAKER_00: St.
5:18
SPEAKER_00: Louis City still has yet to lose a game since the World Cup ended.
5:23
SPEAKER_00: Four wins, zero defeats, two draws.
5:26
SPEAKER_00: Keep that going, and they will be in a great spot.
5:29
SPEAKER_00: Come the MLS Cup playoffs.
5:32
SPEAKER_00: The top class of club soccer, the English Premier League, kicks off Friday.
5:38
SPEAKER_00: Their first game will be a great matchup of Arsenal, who is the league favorites going into this season, taking on newcomer who was just recently promoted from the English Championship, the second tier in English football, and that is Coventry City.
5:53
SPEAKER_00: So that's Friday afternoon.
5:55
SPEAKER_00: We mentioned this on our What to Watch for on our last show with Pedro, but this is a uh great opening game.
6:02
SPEAKER_00: Should get everybody excited and ready for English Premier League.
6:06
SPEAKER_00: Couple other big games that I will note.
6:09
SPEAKER_00: Manchester United, my Red Devils on Manchester United.
6:14
SPEAKER_00: They're facing Hull on Saturday morning.
6:17
SPEAKER_00: Chelsea, the Blues, take on Fulham FC on Monday.
6:22
SPEAKER_00: But no question, the game of the week, Newcastle versus Liverpool, Sunday afternoon.
6:30
SPEAKER_00: Biggest matchup of the weekend on the pitch.
6:33
SPEAKER_00: Great matchup to start the English Premier League season, Newcastle and Liverpool.
6:37
SPEAKER_00: We'll be keeping tabs across all the soccer leagues all season as the Tailgate Camp podcast is all sports all year long.
6:47
SPEAKER_00: We will keep you up to date on scores, standings, and some of the biggest stories going on, not only in the English Premier League, but all across club soccer around the world.
6:57
SPEAKER_00: Coming up next, we have the AFC West Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders.
7:05
SPEAKER_00: Stick around.
7:16
SPEAKER_00: All right, let's get into the AFC West.
7:20
SPEAKER_00: So we're gonna start with the Denver Broncos, who went 14-3 last season and won the AFC West.
7:28
SPEAKER_00: Their over under the season is set at nine and a half.
7:32
SPEAKER_00: The big story right off the jump here is Bo Nicks is healthy after kind of a freak ankle injury that he suffered at the end of their playoff game against the Bills, causing him to miss the AFC Championship game against the Patriots, which the Broncos ended up losing to Drake May and the Patriots.
7:50
SPEAKER_00: But Bo Nicks healthy, ready to go for week one.
7:54
SPEAKER_00: Um, some of their big offseason moves.
7:56
SPEAKER_00: They traded multiple picks, including one of their 2020 or their 2026 first rounder for wide receiver Jalen Waddell, um, to help kind of round out their that receiver room, give somebody opposite of Cortland Sutton.
8:10
SPEAKER_00: Um, but that was really like their major move that they made.
8:13
SPEAKER_00: So, what questions are the Broncos facing this year?
8:16
SPEAKER_00: To me, the biggest question is can Knicks support both of these wide receivers?
8:22
SPEAKER_00: And honestly, Knicks got away.
8:25
SPEAKER_00: Um, he he statistically, there's a there's a stat that gets measured in terms of how fortunate a quarterback is by lack of drops or dropped interceptions, um, or how many plays wide receivers are uncovered, whether it's busted coverage or a wide receiver beating their man so badly the throw is not contested.
8:44
SPEAKER_00: And Bo Knicks was one of the luckiest quarterbacks in the NFL last season, which kind of fits with what their team was.
8:51
SPEAKER_00: They actually set an NFL record going 11-1 in one-score games in 2025.
8:58
SPEAKER_00: It's just gonna be hard to repeat something like that.
9:01
SPEAKER_00: The NFL is a is a league where regression is a real thing.
9:06
SPEAKER_00: There's not a lot of teams that consistently are that great, or uh teams that are consistently very bad.
9:13
SPEAKER_00: Water tends to find its level in the NFL.
9:16
SPEAKER_00: And when you go, when you have 12 one-score games in a season and you win 11 of them, you set an NFL record.
9:24
SPEAKER_00: Chances are there's going to be some regression in close games.
9:27
SPEAKER_00: And when you watch the NFL, most games are close.
9:31
SPEAKER_00: So the other thing that I'm very curious about with the Broncos is their running back situation.
9:36
SPEAKER_00: It's about as murky as a running back situation can get.
9:39
SPEAKER_00: They have RJ Harvey coming back, who's now in his second year out of UCF, veteran running back J.K.
9:45
SPEAKER_00: Dobbins, who was pretty good last year.
9:48
SPEAKER_00: Um, and then they drafted rookie Jonah Coleman out of Washington.
9:52
SPEAKER_00: So out of these three guys, is there a guy that I feel like could really emerge out of this group?
9:59
SPEAKER_00: I mean, not really.
10:01
SPEAKER_00: I mean, if I had to make a decision, or you're in a fantasy draft and you need to draft a running back, and your only options start to come down to a Broncos running back, if I'm gonna lean in a direction, it's gonna be J.K.
10:14
SPEAKER_00: Dobbins because he's clearly already earned the trust of Sean Payton.
10:18
SPEAKER_00: Uh, last year, with his reliable performance, he's a veteran, he's a good pass blocker, capable receiver at times, and he's just a guy that I feel more confident in and can trust a little bit more than RJ Harvey, who was very sporadic in how much playing time the Broncos were giving him last year.
10:39
SPEAKER_00: The Broncos were also one of the best defenses in the NFL last year.
10:43
SPEAKER_00: They were second in yards allowed, third in points allowed, but how good can this defense be?
10:49
SPEAKER_00: They didn't really lose a whole lot.
10:51
SPEAKER_00: They lost John Franklin Myers, who's their star defensive tackle, very good player, but by no means one of their best.
10:59
SPEAKER_00: They still have Nick Benito, um, they still have Patrick Zertan, they still have a lot of great players on this defense.
11:06
SPEAKER_00: Um, they did lose Dre Greenlaw and PJ Locke, but again, those are really more minor moves.
11:12
SPEAKER_00: Uh, I think this defense is going to be just around as good as they were last year.
11:18
SPEAKER_00: Uh, maybe not as good, but I do think this defense is very capable.
11:22
SPEAKER_00: Um, they have great coaching.
11:24
SPEAKER_00: I think this defense is more than capable of repeating a top 10 performance.
11:29
SPEAKER_00: When you have the secondary like they do with Riley Moss, Patrick Sertan.
11:33
SPEAKER_00: I think you're kind of shoe-in to not, you know, be above the middle of the pack in terms of defenses.
11:40
SPEAKER_00: But I like this defense.
11:42
SPEAKER_00: I think it's gonna be the engine that drives this Broncos team this year.
11:46
SPEAKER_00: Um, I don't know if they'll be second in yards and third in points allowed.
11:51
SPEAKER_00: Um, I think their schedule is gonna be a lot harder this year, having come off winning their division and being the first place team in the AFC.
12:01
SPEAKER_00: But that's why we play the games.
12:04
SPEAKER_00: So moving on, the LA Chargers.
12:07
SPEAKER_00: Their big storyline this offseason is the fact that one, they got healthy.
12:12
SPEAKER_00: Joe Walt and Rashawn Slater, they're all pro tackles.
12:15
SPEAKER_00: Both are back after both of them were injured and missed the majority of last season.
12:21
SPEAKER_00: And in Joe Walt's case, they missed the entirety of last season.
12:25
SPEAKER_00: So that's sigh of relief for the Los Angeles Chargers.
12:29
SPEAKER_00: Sigh of relief for Madison Beer.
12:31
SPEAKER_00: Shout out Madison Beer, who is now dating Justin Herbert.
12:35
SPEAKER_00: Big sigh of relief for Justin Herbert.
12:37
SPEAKER_00: The other big story with the Chargers is Mike McDaniel.
12:41
SPEAKER_00: So this team was 11-6 last year.
12:43
SPEAKER_00: They finished in second place and lost their opening playoff game to the New England Patriots.
12:49
SPEAKER_00: Mike McDaniel coming in, I think, really does open up a lot of things on this offense.
12:55
SPEAKER_00: This offense struggled a lot last year at different times.
12:59
SPEAKER_00: Um, they were 20th in scoring.
13:02
SPEAKER_00: I think Mike McDaniel provides a major impact from multiple personnel packages in using motion in the in his pre-snap um play calls.
13:13
SPEAKER_00: He's very known in his scheme when he was in Miami, having guys run across the field in motion prior to the snap to help the quarterback really get a good feel for what defense is the defense is in.
13:26
SPEAKER_00: Um, I think that makes a big impact for this team.
13:30
SPEAKER_00: Having Mike McDaniel running the show, um, taking some of that pressure off of Justin Herbert to be, you know, a superstar quarterback, which I think Justin Herbert is a is a good quarterback.
13:44
SPEAKER_00: I think he's a top 10 quarterback in the NFL.
13:47
SPEAKER_00: I don't know that he is the elite guy that some people believe he is, or that maybe his draft pedigree would have concluded that he was, but I do think he's very, very good.
13:59
SPEAKER_00: One of the best upper third quarterbacks in the NFL.
14:03
SPEAKER_00: And now having a very creative play caller who's been good with I'll say less talented quarterbacks like Tua, I think that's gonna be a world of difference for Justin Herbert in this offense.
14:16
SPEAKER_00: Let's review some of their moves, though, this offseason, besides bringing in head coach Mike McDaniel.
14:22
SPEAKER_00: They brought in tight end David Njoku, um, nose tackle Dalvin Tomlinson, a running back that I really like, Keaton Mitchell from the Baltimore Ravens.
14:31
SPEAKER_00: Um, they also extended star safety Derwin James.
14:35
SPEAKER_00: Uh, and the draft, I loved both of their first two draft picks in Miami edge rusher and national champ runner-up, Akeem Mesador, and Florida Gator starting center, Jake Slaughter.
14:49
SPEAKER_00: Both of those guys were all Americans in college.
14:52
SPEAKER_00: I think both of those guys can slot right in.
14:55
SPEAKER_00: Um, actually, the day of this recording, we find out that the Chargers other offseason signing that I did not mention, Tyler Biatish, who was a center, um, is likely going to miss a lot of time, perhaps even the whole season.
15:10
SPEAKER_00: So Jake Slaughter is going to slot right in and I think be a very capable member of that offensive line that he doesn't have to be the best offensive lineman there.
15:21
SPEAKER_00: They have Joe Walt, Rashawn Slater, they have uh plenty of guys to help take that pressure off of Jake Slaughter.
15:29
SPEAKER_00: But I liked what they did in the draft.
15:31
SPEAKER_00: Um, they had a few losses.
15:32
SPEAKER_00: Adoptha Oway, probably the biggest one financially, um, who left and went to the Washington Commanders.
15:39
SPEAKER_00: They also lost offensive guard Zion Johnson, who went to the Cleveland Browns.
15:44
SPEAKER_00: And Keenan Allen, who actually just signed with the Colts a couple days ago, is no longer with the Chargers.
15:52
SPEAKER_00: So ultimately, can they run the ball under Harbaugh?
15:56
SPEAKER_00: They were 20th in rushing yards per game last year.
15:59
SPEAKER_00: They bring back Omarion Hampton.
16:01
SPEAKER_00: I mentioned that they brought in Keaton Mitchell.
16:03
SPEAKER_00: I think Omarion Hampton is really going to come on strong this year.
16:08
SPEAKER_00: I think he's going to be a household name, a top uh fantasy running back and RB1 by the end of the year.
16:16
SPEAKER_00: I think they are going to lean on Omarion Hampton, who was a workhorse at the University of North Carolina.
16:23
SPEAKER_00: I think he's more than capable of doing that for this Chargers team.
16:27
SPEAKER_00: As long as this offensive line stays healthy, he's going to have running lanes to go through.
16:32
SPEAKER_00: And I think Omarion Hampton is built for this moment.
16:35
SPEAKER_00: He's a big back, capable of being a receiving threat as well.
16:40
SPEAKER_00: I love the fit with Omar and Hampton and John Harbaugh, or Jim Harbaugh, excuse me.
16:45
SPEAKER_00: Uh, we talked about John Harbaugh a couple episodes ago with Brandon in the New York Giants.
16:52
SPEAKER_00: This is his brother, John.
16:54
SPEAKER_00: Um, but I think that they are finally going to um get a stable rushing attack going here with the Chargers.
17:02
SPEAKER_00: So ultimately, the Chargers are always the team that are the underachievers, the ones that fall flat.
17:10
SPEAKER_00: They have even have a saying that the Chargers are gonna charger, they're gonna blow leads, they're gonna collapse late in the season.
17:18
SPEAKER_00: They just don't win when it matters.
17:20
SPEAKER_00: I think that this is the year that that finally changes.
17:24
SPEAKER_00: Jim Harbaugh now in his third year as head coach, Justin Herbert back.
17:28
SPEAKER_00: Their offensive line is healthy, their defense should be much improved.
17:33
SPEAKER_00: Um, even without Jesse Mentor there, who left to be the head coach of the Baltimore Ravens.
17:38
SPEAKER_00: I think that this is the year that the Chargers finally are able to put it together and meet the expectations that so many people consistently lay on them.
17:48
SPEAKER_00: I just think that water, again, will find its level here with the Chargers and they will find their right footing.
17:56
SPEAKER_00: Speaking of finding your right footing, a team that definitely did not find their footing last year, the Kansas City Chiefs.
18:03
SPEAKER_00: After making it to uh three Super Bowls in five seasons, the Chiefs missed the playoffs last year, going 6-11, but they're over under this year, set at 10 and a half.
18:16
SPEAKER_00: That tells me that Vegas believes that this team will bounce back.
18:20
SPEAKER_00: The biggest storyline here, without a question, Patrick Mahomes returns after tearing his ACL towards the end of last season that caused him to miss about the last month of the season.
18:31
SPEAKER_00: Um, but they had a very busy offseason.
18:33
SPEAKER_00: Traded corner Trent McDuffie away, star cornerback who we talked about with Nate on the NFC West podcast, and his tandem partner, Jalen Watson, also is now an LA Ram.
18:45
SPEAKER_00: They also lost safety Brian Cook to the Bengals and former starting running back Isaiah Pacheco, um, which to me is the definition of addition by subtraction, who is now the backup running back for the Detroit Lions, which is exactly what Isaiah Pacheco should have been doing for his whole career is being a backup.
19:07
SPEAKER_00: The Chiefs replaced Isaiah Pacheco immediately at the start of free agency by signing Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker Jr., as they call him KW3 in Seattle.
19:19
SPEAKER_00: And now he moves down to the land of barbecue in Kansas City.
19:23
SPEAKER_00: They also signed former Patriots nose tackle, Kyrie's Tonga, an underrated move that I really like, but where the Chiefs really, I think, are going to make the biggest strides and where they're going to see the biggest dividends pay off from their offseason is from what they did in the draft.
19:42
SPEAKER_00: I love what the Chiefs did in the draft this offseason.
19:45
SPEAKER_00: They took LSU cornerback Mansoor Delaney in the first round, trading up to get him.
19:50
SPEAKER_00: And then they had a second first round pick that they actually traded back up for and got former Clemson defensive lineman Peter Woods, who, if you had been talking about this 18 months ago, most people assume that Peter Woods would have been a top five pick.
20:07
SPEAKER_00: And the Chiefs were able to get him at the tail end of the first round.
20:11
SPEAKER_00: That tells me that there was, you know, more things going on than just talent with Peter Woods.
20:17
SPEAKER_00: And you stick him in the middle of that defense right next to a Chris Jones and a George Carloftis.
20:23
SPEAKER_00: I think that guy is going to make a major impact on that defense.
20:27
SPEAKER_00: But they also took Edge R.
20:29
SPEAKER_00: Mason Thomas from the University of Oklahoma in the second round.
20:33
SPEAKER_00: And one kind of sneaky under the radar move that I really like from the Chiefs was running back Emmett Johnson out of the University of Nebraska.
20:42
SPEAKER_00: I mentioned that they brought in Kenneth Walker Jr., but I love this complimentary fit for Emmett Johnson.
20:49
SPEAKER_00: So ultimately, can Mahomes return to his elite form?
20:54
SPEAKER_00: I'm not going to be the one that comes on here and says that I am ruling Mahomes out.
20:59
SPEAKER_00: Now, if we're talking about is he going to be an MVP candidate, I certainly don't think so this season.
21:06
SPEAKER_00: I think that there will be some growing pains.
21:09
SPEAKER_00: Even before he suffered that injury last year, even the last, you know, several years, this team has been a defensive-oriented football team.
21:20
SPEAKER_00: Anybody who tells you differently is lying to you, or they are bleeding Chiefs Kingdom Red.
21:26
SPEAKER_00: So can Mahomes return to his elite form?
21:29
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if I would say elite form, but I definitely think Mahomes will be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
21:36
SPEAKER_00: Um, what that really looks like in terms of stats, production, and wins, I don't really know.
21:41
SPEAKER_00: But I do think that Mahomes is going to remind us all that he is a great quarterback.
21:46
SPEAKER_00: He's going to be one of the top six or seven quarterbacks in the NFL this year.
21:50
SPEAKER_00: But the real question is you know, some of the struggles that the Chiefs have had the last couple years is reliance, reliable receivers, reliable.
22:00
SPEAKER_00: Reliable pass catchers for Mahomes.
22:02
SPEAKER_00: They've tried different guys.
22:04
SPEAKER_00: Taekwon Thornton, Kadarius Tone.
22:06
SPEAKER_00: They've had Justin Watson out there running routes.
22:10
SPEAKER_00: They've tried everything.
22:11
SPEAKER_00: They brought in new guys, guys off waivers, practice squad guys, young guys.
22:17
SPEAKER_00: They've done it all.
22:18
SPEAKER_00: But this is the year that I do think that they're going to find an elite connection with Mahomes, and it's really going to take some strides.
22:27
SPEAKER_00: And that's between Mahomes and wide receiver from SMU, Rasheed Rice.
22:32
SPEAKER_00: I think this is the year that SM or Rasheed Rice really puts himself into an elite wide receiver conversation.
22:52
SPEAKER_00: I think Rasheed Rice is in a prime position to be a wide receiver one in the NFL this year.
22:57
SPEAKER_00: In fantasy, I think he's in a prime position to lead this team in targets and catches and in receiving touchdowns.
23:05
SPEAKER_00: So goodbye are the days that Travis Kelsey dominated the target share of this team.
23:10
SPEAKER_00: I've seen videos, we've all seen the videos of that man in practice.
23:15
SPEAKER_00: He looks like he's trying to shake it off, if you will.
23:19
SPEAKER_00: I'm sorry.
23:20
SPEAKER_00: I had to.
23:21
SPEAKER_00: He got married in MSG to Taylor Swift.
23:23
SPEAKER_00: You got a reference her.
23:50
SPEAKER_00: He had a dominant postseason run with Seattle, who's not a tremendous run blocking team.
23:56
SPEAKER_00: Their offensive line is much more geared to pass blocking.
24:00
SPEAKER_00: Um, and I think Kenneth Walker is in a is not only an upgrade, I think he is a significant upgrade over any running back that they had last year.
24:11
SPEAKER_00: I think that is a major improvement for their rushing attack that will vault them into the top half of the league in rushing.
24:18
SPEAKER_00: I still think that the Chiefs' offensive line has some question marks in it.
24:23
SPEAKER_00: Part of the reason why Mahomes struggled so much last year was he was taking a lot of hits.
24:29
SPEAKER_00: He was under a lot of pressure.
24:31
SPEAKER_00: But I do think that the offensive line is going to take another step.
24:34
SPEAKER_00: I love Simmons on this offensive line.
24:36
SPEAKER_00: Creed Humphrey is still there.
24:38
SPEAKER_00: They have a lot of guys that you can really anchor on an offensive line.
24:42
SPEAKER_00: It's just the fact that they haven't been able to get the right five guys out there consistently.
24:47
SPEAKER_00: But I think this year they really improve their rushing attack.
24:52
SPEAKER_00: And lastly, do I think this defense takes a step back losing Trent McDuffie and losing Jalen Watson?
25:00
SPEAKER_00: Well, I think it's no question.
25:01
SPEAKER_00: You can't take two-star corners off a uh, you know, playoff contending roster and assume that that team will not have any drop-off.
25:11
SPEAKER_00: But it's not all bad news, Chiefs fans, because Mansour Delane was my favorite corner coming into the draft.
25:18
SPEAKER_00: I think he is an instant day one impact player, very similar in my eyes to another LSU corner who plays for my rivals in the Houston Texans, Derek Stingley Jr.
25:31
SPEAKER_00: I think they have very similar length and skill profiles.
25:35
SPEAKER_00: I love the way he fits into this Chiefs defense with Steve Spagnolo.
25:39
SPEAKER_00: I also, as I mentioned, loved the picks of R.
25:42
SPEAKER_00: Mason Thomas and Peter Woods.
25:44
SPEAKER_00: I think that just gives them so much complementary pass rush up front.
25:48
SPEAKER_00: So yeah, I do think the defense is going to take a step back, especially from a passing defense standpoint.
25:54
SPEAKER_00: But I think this rush defense is going to be much improved.
25:57
SPEAKER_00: I think they're going to get much more pressure on the quarterback.
25:59
SPEAKER_00: And when you get more pressure on the quarterback, guess what happens?
26:03
SPEAKER_00: You start forcing turnovers.
26:06
SPEAKER_00: So ultimately, yeah, I do think the defense takes a bit of a step back, maybe in terms of the stats that they allow.
26:12
SPEAKER_00: But I think the defense as a whole, towards the end of the season, will be trending in the right direction.
26:19
SPEAKER_00: So now it's time to get to the last team in this division.
26:23
SPEAKER_00: Probably the team with the most change in the offseason.
26:27
SPEAKER_00: That is the Las Vegas Raiders, who went 3-14 last year and had the number one overall pick.
26:34
SPEAKER_00: Their over-under this year is set at five and a half wins.
26:38
SPEAKER_00: Tells you Vegas is not loving the Raiders' chances of winning this division.
26:43
SPEAKER_00: They brought in new head coach Clint Kubiak, who comes in after winning the Super Bowl with the Seattle Seahawks as their offensive coordinator.
26:50
SPEAKER_00: And of course, with that first pick of the draft, they took a quarterback, Heisman Trophy winner, national championship quarterback, Fernando Mendoza.
27:01
SPEAKER_00: He now is the franchise quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders, who were the worst scoring team in the NFL last year.
27:08
SPEAKER_00: Saw their coach Pete Carroll get tossed in the middle of the season and a pretty poor rookie performance from their first-round draft pick, Ashton Genty, as well.
27:19
SPEAKER_00: So let's talk about a few of their offseason moves.
27:22
SPEAKER_00: They brought in center Tyler Linderbaum to help shore up that offensive line, which is a move that I love.
27:28
SPEAKER_00: Former Iowa Hawkeye, shout out to Brandon Ogden and former Baltimore Raven.
27:34
SPEAKER_00: I love this move of bringing in Tyler Linderbaum.
27:36
SPEAKER_00: I think it solidifies the middle of that offensive line.
27:39
SPEAKER_00: Even though center is probably the most replaceable, easily replaceable position across the offensive line.
27:46
SPEAKER_00: I love that this team went out and got a good, strong, and still young center to lead in front of Fernando Mendoza.
27:54
SPEAKER_00: Having a guy that he can build real rapport with and grow through for the next five to eight years of his career, I think it's great.
28:02
SPEAKER_00: Well, the Raiders also brought in another quarterback, a guy that most of you listening to this Vinton would know very well.
28:09
SPEAKER_00: And that is former Atlanta Falcon, former Minnesota Viking, former Washington Redskin, former Michigan State spotting Kirk Cousins on a one-year,$20 million deal.
28:24
SPEAKER_00: And all of the talk, as we talked about on the very initial episode of the Tailgate Camp podcast, when we broke down some of the quarterback battles that were going to occur going into NFL training camps, is that Kirk Cousins is going to be the starter for week one.
28:39
SPEAKER_00: Um, a couple other signings I want to highlight.
28:42
SPEAKER_00: They brought in wide receiver Jalen Naylor from the Minnesota Vikings.
28:46
SPEAKER_00: They also signed linebackers Quay Walker and Nikobe Dean, two moves that I really liked.
28:52
SPEAKER_00: And then they brought in edge pass rusher Quiddy Pay from the Indianapolis Colts.
28:57
SPEAKER_00: A few guys left, most notably Geno Smith, but that is not a major loss when you factor that they brought in Kirk Cousins and again Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza.
29:08
SPEAKER_00: They've also lost linebacker Landon Roberts, safety Trayvon Morig, corner Nate Hobbs, and they traded one of their former top five picks, Tyree Wilson, to the New Orleans Saints for a future late-round draft pick.
29:24
SPEAKER_00: Their draft was headlined by Fernando Mendoza, obviously.
29:27
SPEAKER_00: Um, but a few other notables that I want to make sure that I mention Tennessee volunteer corner Jermon McCoy, who had a lot of medical concerns going into the draft.
29:38
SPEAKER_00: They were able to get him in the fifth round, where they also were able to take former Arkansas Razorback running back Mike Washington Jr., who we talked about the other day, ripped off a long 53-yard run in their first preseason game.
29:53
SPEAKER_00: He looks like a guy that's going to be pushing Ashton Genty for a little bit of playing time.
29:58
SPEAKER_00: And then safety traden Stukes, a kind of versatile safety hybrid linebacker, another draft pick that I really like.
30:06
SPEAKER_00: I like a lot of what Vegas did trying to just bring in guys that can make an impact.
30:12
SPEAKER_00: When you're three and 14 and you don't have a lot of sure things on your roster, I love the idea of swinging for the fences.
30:21
SPEAKER_00: Because if you hit three, you know, out of every 10 of those draft picks, you're gonna get enough impact players that are gonna help raise the floor of your team.
30:31
SPEAKER_00: So I love what the Raiders did in their draft.
30:34
SPEAKER_00: So the biggest question is how long does Kirk hold off Mendoza?
30:39
SPEAKER_00: Well, I definitely think for this first snap of the first game, um, just because Kubiak has continued to reiterate that he will be the starter.
30:48
SPEAKER_00: My guess is by the time we get to October, Fernando Mendoza will be the starting quarterback for the Raiders.
30:55
SPEAKER_00: We saw him play in that first preseason game last week, as we talked about on the last episode, and he looked pretty good.
31:02
SPEAKER_00: He made some good throws, threw a really nice touchdown.
31:05
SPEAKER_00: I would be shocked on the Tailgate Cam podcast if Fernando Mendoza is not the starting quarterback by week four.
31:15
SPEAKER_00: How much though does Gary or Clint Kubiak?
31:18
SPEAKER_00: Gary Kubiak was his Ted.
31:20
SPEAKER_00: How much does Clint Kubiak fix this offense?
31:23
SPEAKER_00: I I mentioned that they were last in scoring last year.
31:27
SPEAKER_00: What real impact does he make?
31:30
SPEAKER_00: Well, you got to look at what's going on with the skilled players on this team, this offensive line, there is a lot of holes on this roster.
31:38
SPEAKER_00: When you are counting on, you know, a former uh Minnesota Viking receiver, Jalen Naylor, who was you know a third, sometimes even a fourth option in that Minnesota offense.
31:51
SPEAKER_00: You're counting on guys like him, guys like Trey Tucker.
31:55
SPEAKER_00: Um, obviously, your second-year running back, Ashton Gente, you would like to see him make a bigger impact, but there's not a lot of meat on the bone here for the Raiders or for their coaching staff.
32:06
SPEAKER_00: So I think this is really more of a matter that you could see improvements in terms of the style, the scheme that they play within, or and especially with the creativity of their run game, which Kubiak and his dad were both extremely known for.
32:22
SPEAKER_00: Um, but in terms of how many points this team scores week in and week out, I don't think that there's gonna be a major impact because I don't think that there's enough talent here yet.
32:32
SPEAKER_00: So, kind of building off that, do I think that Ashton Gente bounces back?
32:37
SPEAKER_00: Sure.
32:38
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think he has a better year than he did last year.
32:41
SPEAKER_00: I still think that this team is gonna struggle to run the ball, and I think a lot of that's just gonna be due to game script.
32:46
SPEAKER_00: They are gonna be consistently down in games.
32:50
SPEAKER_00: I do not believe in this defense whatsoever.
32:54
SPEAKER_00: This is gonna team that's this is gonna be a team that is facing an uphill battle week in and week out, with the exception of the weeks where they catch a team napping and they jump out to an early lead and they're able to establish the run from ahead.
33:08
SPEAKER_00: I think this is gonna be a hard go for the Raiders to really consistently run the ball, even though I do think Genty will be better than he was last year.
33:18
SPEAKER_00: Is this just a bad team with an all-world tight end?
33:23
SPEAKER_00: Honestly, yeah, it is.
33:27
SPEAKER_00: Brock Bowers is going to be the best tight end in fantasy sports this year.
33:32
SPEAKER_00: He will be the tight end one when we're having this conversation by the end of this year.
33:38
SPEAKER_00: One because he will simply dominate the target share.
33:41
SPEAKER_00: We've talked about Trey Tucker, we've talked about uh DeAndre Thornton, um, we've talked about Jalen Naylor.
33:48
SPEAKER_00: There is not a lot of great receivers in that receiving room for the Raiders.
33:53
SPEAKER_00: So Brock Bowers is going to be soaking up targets from whether it's Kirk Cousins or Fernando Mendoza all season long.
34:01
SPEAKER_00: His production will be all level, all pro, all elite status yet again.
34:08
SPEAKER_00: He will be tight end one.
34:10
SPEAKER_00: You can bookmark that and take a loan out on it.
34:12
SPEAKER_00: I promise you it will be.
34:15
SPEAKER_00: Now that we've gone through the Broncos, the Chiefs, the Chargers, and the Raiders, it is time for us to put pen to paper.
34:24
SPEAKER_00: That's right.
34:24
SPEAKER_00: It's time to stack this division out and see where I think this division falls.
34:30
SPEAKER_00: As we've done with every division so far, we will start at the bottom of this division and work our way up to the victor.
34:38
SPEAKER_00: That means in fourth place, it's the team we just finished talking about, the Las Vegas Raiders.
34:45
SPEAKER_00: I like the direction.
34:47
SPEAKER_00: I talked told you already, I liked their draft.
34:50
SPEAKER_00: There's just too many holes on this team.
34:53
SPEAKER_00: There is not enough here for them to be in advantageous matchups with teams week in and week, week out.
35:01
SPEAKER_00: This offensive line is weak.
35:03
SPEAKER_00: This defensive line outside of Max Crosby does not scare anybody.
35:08
SPEAKER_00: And the secondary can get exposed every week.
35:12
SPEAKER_00: I do not like this team.
35:14
SPEAKER_00: I think this team will be building towards next season where they could possibly be able to contend for the AFC West if they run free agency in their draft right, and some of these young guys develop this this season, and we see some real signs of life from Fernando Mendoza at whatever time he gets into the starting lineup this season.
35:36
SPEAKER_00: But the Raiders will start the Kubiak era in last place in the AFC West.
35:45
SPEAKER_00: This will probably be one of the hottest takes that I can give you guys for my preseason predictions.
35:52
SPEAKER_00: Maybe other than the Eagles missing the playoffs and firing Nick Sirianni in third place in the AFC West.
36:01
SPEAKER_00: The former AFC West champion, Denver Broncos.
36:07
SPEAKER_00: I talked about it.
36:08
SPEAKER_00: They were 11-1 in one-score games in 2025, which means that this team was consistently getting the luck advantage.
36:18
SPEAKER_00: Whether earned or not, they were winning a lot of toss-up games, which that is hard to repeat in the NFL.
36:27
SPEAKER_00: That's hard to repeat when you don't have a reliable running back.
36:31
SPEAKER_00: That's hard to repeat when you don't have an elite quarterback, which they do not.
36:37
SPEAKER_00: And I think their differentiator, week in and week out, is their defense, which very similarly to the Houston Texans.
36:45
SPEAKER_00: Um, as we talked about in our episode on the AFC South, this team will go as far as this defense takes them.
36:52
SPEAKER_00: I do like the Jalen Waddell edition, but I just don't believe in the quarterback.
36:57
SPEAKER_00: I don't think that Bo Knicks is a top half quarterback in the NFL, and that puts you behind the eight ball.
37:04
SPEAKER_00: When most teams that you face week in and week out trust their signal caller more than yours, well, I don't think you're gonna win your division back-to-back, especially when we talk about the two teams that we have left in this division.
37:16
SPEAKER_00: So your third place team, you can mark that one down as a tailgate hot take.
37:22
SPEAKER_00: The Denver Broncos.
37:25
SPEAKER_00: So that brings us to the second place of the AFC West in 2026.
37:32
SPEAKER_00: The Kansas City Chiefs.
37:35
SPEAKER_00: And not only do I think they're gonna be in second place, I think they make it back to the playoffs.
37:41
SPEAKER_00: As a wild card, obviously, but I think they make it back to the playoffs.
37:46
SPEAKER_00: I love this draft that they had.
37:48
SPEAKER_00: I think a lot of these guys are ready to make an impact.
37:52
SPEAKER_00: And like I said, I think Mahomes reminds us who he is after the last couple years of struggling, not having the numbers that he's used to.
38:01
SPEAKER_00: I think initially this season, they will get off to kind of a slow start as they work him back and continue to work through some of the kinks in this offense.
38:10
SPEAKER_00: But ultimately, I think the cream will rise to the top, and Mahomes will power this team to getting into a wild card spot on his own willpower alone.
38:22
SPEAKER_00: I think the Chiefs finish in second place, so that leaves us with one team remaining.
38:29
SPEAKER_00: That's the LA Chargers.
38:32
SPEAKER_00: Oh, you can go ahead and sound bite this, clickbait me, receipt me, whatever you want to call it.
38:41
SPEAKER_00: The Chargers are going to win the AFC West in 2026, and it's not going to be close.
38:48
SPEAKER_00: Justin Herbert is going to have an incredible season with Mike McDaniel.
38:53
SPEAKER_00: He will be a top eight quarterback in the NFL.
38:56
SPEAKER_00: We will see great production from their tight ends, David Njoku and Orande Gadson.
39:02
SPEAKER_00: And I think Omarion Hampton will be the breakout star of this offense behind a healthy and rejuvenated offensive line.
39:12
SPEAKER_00: The Chargers will win this division, and they will be the fourth seed in the AFC.
39:23
SPEAKER_00: So just to recap, as we put pen to paper, in fourth place, I have the Las Vegas Raiders.
39:31
SPEAKER_00: In third place, I have the former AFC West champions of last season, the Denver Broncos missing the playoffs.
39:44
SPEAKER_00: In second place, I have the Kansas City Chiefs making a wild card, and then winning the division ultimately, the LA Chajas.
40:18
SPEAKER_00: So the Tailgate Talk today, the AL MVP is pretty much locked up.
40:24
SPEAKER_00: Jordan Alvarez is a minus 1200 favorite as of today to win the AL MVP.
40:31
SPEAKER_00: The NL MVP, however, is a much closer race.
40:36
SPEAKER_00: There are two legitimate contenders.
40:38
SPEAKER_00: One of them, Shohei Otani of the Dodgers, the DH.
40:43
SPEAKER_00: The other, Pete Crow Armstrong, the center fielder of the Chicago Cubs.
40:51
SPEAKER_00: So what is the argument between these guys?
40:54
SPEAKER_00: As of today, on August 20th, 2026, Pete Crow Armstrong is a slight betting favorite to win the NL MVP at minus 155.
41:04
SPEAKER_00: And Otani is plus 130, depending on where you're getting your numbers.
41:09
SPEAKER_00: But generally speaking, that's about the shakeup that you're going to see.
41:13
SPEAKER_00: Pete Crow Armstrong being a slight minus favorite over Otani, who is a slight positive underdog.
41:22
SPEAKER_00: So ultimately, what does this race come down to in my eyes?
41:26
SPEAKER_00: Well, one, Pete Crow Armstrong is the best defender, the best fielder in baseball, and there are stats that back this up.
41:36
SPEAKER_00: He is 23 out above average.
41:40
SPEAKER_00: That puts him in the hundredth percentile.
41:44
SPEAKER_00: That means he's the best.
41:46
SPEAKER_00: He also has 14 defensive run saves this season.
41:51
SPEAKER_00: That also makes him the best.
41:55
SPEAKER_00: Another stat if we're gonna keep going down the list, in terms of distance covered, he leads all outfielders.
42:06
SPEAKER_00: Also, in terms of his initial burst, which is tracked as how much distance they cover in their first three seconds after the ball is hit, he leads the majors in initial burst.
42:20
SPEAKER_00: He's clearly the best defender, the best fielder in baseball.
42:25
SPEAKER_00: So what is the argument for Otani?
42:28
SPEAKER_00: Well, he is a pretty elite pitcher, however, he hasn't pitched since the beginning of July.
42:34
SPEAKER_00: So I can't really continue to use that as an argument for him when he's not doing it.
42:41
SPEAKER_00: And their hitting stats are pretty similar.
42:44
SPEAKER_00: Otani has a slight advantage and an average on base percentage and OPS, while PCA has a slight advantage in home runs and a massive advantage in stolen bases.
42:56
SPEAKER_00: It's Otani has stopped stealing bases after his 50-50 season last year.
43:02
SPEAKER_00: Ultimately, this just comes down to what do you value?
43:05
SPEAKER_00: Do you value the fact that there's rarity to Shohei Otani's game, or do you value the the elite play of Pete Crowe Armstrong?
43:16
SPEAKER_00: And while we're in the tailgate talk, I have to share that if it's up to me, if I'm a voter voting for this race, I cannot conflate things being rare with things being great.
43:31
SPEAKER_00: Those are not the same things.
43:34
SPEAKER_00: And it's often misconstrued and misunderstood when you talk about sports debates, whether it's quarterbacks or you know who's the GOAT in the NBA, or who's the best two way player in the NBA, or whatever the argument is.
43:51
SPEAKER_00: We see it all the time with Messi and Ronaldo.
43:53
SPEAKER_00: Ronaldo scores all these goals, all these penalty kicks.
43:57
SPEAKER_00: He gets to run around and yells, fhe! A lot.
44:01
SPEAKER_00: But people get confused about the difference between something being rare and something being great.
44:09
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Otani is as rare as it gets.
44:12
SPEAKER_00: He's an elite pitcher.
44:14
SPEAKER_00: He is an incredible hitter for the most part.
44:19
SPEAKER_00: Um, he is incredibly rare.
44:22
SPEAKER_00: There's nobody that we've ever seen do those kinds of things at the same time.
44:28
SPEAKER_00: That being said, is he as valuable and as great as Pete Crow Armstrong?
44:36
SPEAKER_00: Well, I would argue that he's not.
44:39
SPEAKER_00: Rarity cannot be conflated with greatness.
44:43
SPEAKER_00: And so in my book, Pete Crow Armstrong, unless things changed dramatically in the last 35 days or so of the season, Pete Crow Armstrong is my NLMVP.
44:57
SPEAKER_00: So we got to give out a gold star as we do on every episode.
45:01
SPEAKER_00: My gold star of this week, that is, is Kyle Schwarber, DH of the Philadelphia Phillies, who are in the middle of a six-game winning streak.
45:12
SPEAKER_00: Back-to-back sweeps.
45:14
SPEAKER_00: They just swept the Marlins, where Kyle Schwarber hit two more home runs in the series, putting him in first place in all of baseball on home runs at 37.
45:24
SPEAKER_00: Kyle Schwarber, gold star of the week.
45:28
SPEAKER_00: And what to watch for.
45:29
SPEAKER_00: A big series for my Yankees this week as the Blue Jays, who have gained a ton of ground in the Ale wildcard race, face a very hungry Yankees team who need to create separation from the Red Sox and continue to catch the Tampa Bay Rays.
45:48
SPEAKER_00: A huge series.
45:49
SPEAKER_00: We also expect Cody Bellinger to make his return after missing about a month of time on the injured list.
45:55
SPEAKER_00: Huge series between the Blue Jays and my Yankees kicking off on Friday.
46:00
SPEAKER_00: And then we've talked about this game as well earlier when we discussed the English Premier League coming back, but that's Liverpool and Newcastle on Sunday afternoon.
46:10
SPEAKER_00: Liverpool, Newcastle.
46:12
SPEAKER_00: It is the soccer matchup of the weekend.
46:15
SPEAKER_00: That's my one-to-watch for Blue Jays, Yankees, and Liverpool, Newcastle.
46:21
SPEAKER_00: On the next episode of the Tailgate podcast, we will go through our last NFL division.
46:27
SPEAKER_00: And then it's time to talk college.
46:32
SPEAKER_00: College football will also be featured, highlighted, and discussed on the next episode of the Tailgate Cam podcast.
46:41
SPEAKER_00: As you guessed it, by the time this episode comes out, we will only be nine days away from week zero of the college football season.
46:54
SPEAKER_00: So on the next episode, like I said, we will get into the NFC West and some college football talk.
47:01
SPEAKER_00: Thanks for hanging out in the Tailgate Cam podcast.
47:04
SPEAKER_00: Please leave a review.
47:05
SPEAKER_00: Please like the podcast and leave us a good rating.
47:09
SPEAKER_00: We talk all sports all year long.
47:12
SPEAKER_00: Thanks for listening.
47:14
SPEAKER_00: Peace.