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Tariff Trade Deals Coming in 35 Days!🚀Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:06
Speaker 1: Tariffs are in the news today and of course.
0:08
Speaker 2: We'll break it down for you get you some predictions
0:10
Speaker 2: as how this market may play out for you. My
0:11
Speaker 2: name is Paul Barre. Welcome back in a tech path.
0:14
Speaker 2: It is going to be a good one. I do
0:15
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0:32
Speaker 1: Just to get started. If you guys decided to go
0:34
Speaker 1: that direction.
0:34
Speaker 2: I always check with your tax advisors to make sure,
0:36
Speaker 2: but this is a good one for you.
0:38
Speaker 1: To check out. Let's go over to the first tweet
0:41
Speaker 1: here that will break down a little.
0:42
Speaker 2: Bit about what has happened, and that is a Trump's
0:45
Speaker 2: tweet over the weekend protecting American steal. The idea is
0:49
Speaker 2: that he was imposing a twenty five percent increase to
0:52
Speaker 2: the tariff.
0:53
Speaker 1: So we're going to go.
0:53
Speaker 2: Bring it from a twenty five percent, which is where
0:56
Speaker 2: it was to a fifty percent now and all of
0:59
Speaker 2: this is to designed to secure the steel industry in
1:01
Speaker 2: the US. Now, many people are saying, well, will he
1:04
Speaker 2: actually do it? Is the question mark. And of course,
1:07
Speaker 2: if you look at some of the points right here,
1:09
Speaker 2: this is all getting into what they call the taco trade,
1:12
Speaker 2: and that means Trump always chickens out. The meme coin
1:15
Speaker 2: came in, I think he started to realize what was
1:17
Speaker 2: going on, probably upsetting him a little bit, but it
1:21
Speaker 2: was coined by the Financial Times columnst. Robert Armstrong, and
1:24
Speaker 2: he gets into the sentiment behind the phrase despite having
1:27
Speaker 2: a lot of these tariffs against these countries. Eventually, Trump
1:31
Speaker 2: has just recoiled and misses the deadlines, doesn't necessarily follow through,
1:37
Speaker 2: and claims victory in some way. So it's kind of
1:39
Speaker 2: interesting that this is now starting to play into market
1:43
Speaker 2: strategy for both traditional markets as well as bitcoin and
1:47
Speaker 2: digital assets. Here's a clip that kind of goes a
1:49
Speaker 2: little bit further into it. Take a look.
1:51
Speaker 3: I think the question is does the taco trade apply here, right?
1:54
Speaker 3: Or is this itself a response to the president discovering
1:58
Speaker 3: the existence of the taco trade. I'm not I'm not kidding, right,
2:01
Speaker 3: I mean, the President learned about this last week. This
2:04
Speaker 3: you know, Taco is Trump always chickens out. But when
2:08
Speaker 3: the President heard that, you just knew that some sort
2:12
Speaker 3: of stiffening of the tariff regime was maybe in.
2:15
Speaker 4: Response to that.
2:16
Speaker 3: The President doesn't like being accused of that way of
2:18
Speaker 3: chick chickening out. And so the question kicking does see
2:21
Speaker 3: movement on or will taco apply to this?
2:24
Speaker 5: It's the same people that hated the tariffs and then
2:26
Speaker 5: they get de escalated, and then you know, then they
2:28
Speaker 5: whine about that that they're being just de escalated.
2:31
Speaker 4: But that's fine. The question is if.
2:34
Speaker 3: You're escalating and de escalating and not getting anything for it,
2:37
Speaker 3: you know, there's a huge economy there soon talking.
2:40
Speaker 5: About it, I don't know.
2:41
Speaker 4: I don't know what happen.
2:42
Speaker 1: Question is where you get anything for it or not?
2:43
Speaker 5: What happened to trade definison on Friday?
2:46
Speaker 1: All right?
2:46
Speaker 2: So a couple of points that they were making there,
2:48
Speaker 2: of course, is really around Trump not necessarily falling through
2:51
Speaker 2: with a lot of these pressure points to season that
2:54
Speaker 2: he's applying around the tariffs. And personally, I think what
2:57
Speaker 2: we're going to see in terms of my predictions is
3:00
Speaker 2: that Trump will back off this again, he'll claim victory.
3:04
Speaker 2: And I think this is kind of the style in
3:06
Speaker 2: which he's gone about different deals out there, understanding that
3:10
Speaker 2: he can only.
3:11
Speaker 1: Push so far before he gets pushed back from the
3:14
Speaker 1: guy on the other table.
3:15
Speaker 2: And I think that's something that plays into what we're
3:18
Speaker 2: looking at right now, which is one hundred k retest
3:20
Speaker 2: on bitcoins. So it's versus the highest monthly closed ever.
3:23
Speaker 2: Five things you can kind of take a look at.
3:25
Speaker 2: One of them, of course, is a lot of people
3:27
Speaker 2: increasing bets of about one hundred k.
3:29
Speaker 1: Hit.
3:30
Speaker 2: Let me know in the comments if you guys think
3:32
Speaker 2: we're going to go below the one hundred k mark
3:34
Speaker 2: on bitcoin, I'm kind of curious. Is that an entry
3:36
Speaker 2: point for you? The latest price volatility had investors across
3:41
Speaker 2: the holder spectrum kind of to rethink their bitcoin exposure.
3:45
Speaker 2: Does this get you more into bitcoin? If you could
3:47
Speaker 2: see a one hundred k entry point? Remember last month
3:49
Speaker 2: we had a ninety four k entry point, some people
3:51
Speaker 2: took advantage of that. Retail is just now waking up
3:54
Speaker 2: and bitcoin whales are increasingly getting or being exhibiting to
3:59
Speaker 2: a classic trend versus a reversal. So this could mean
4:02
Speaker 2: people starting to take a little bit of profits be
4:04
Speaker 2: cognizant of that. I think this is one that we
4:07
Speaker 2: are going to watch this week in a very big
4:09
Speaker 2: way because this could all play into Trump's situation on
4:13
Speaker 2: these tariffs. The thing that is going to happen is
4:16
Speaker 2: this phone call is going to happen, and this could.
4:18
Speaker 1: Be very positive.
4:20
Speaker 2: If you look at Trump and how he's negotiating with China,
4:23
Speaker 2: especially with gigiping, this may actually be, I feel, be
4:27
Speaker 2: a bullish potential, meaning maybe either we get we're working
4:32
Speaker 2: things out, or we get a big announcement that we
4:34
Speaker 2: think we've come to an agreement on something. Any one
4:38
Speaker 2: of those I think are good. Now, if he walks
4:40
Speaker 2: away with hey, it didn't work out and we got terrible,
4:43
Speaker 2: we're so far apart, that would be the only narrow
4:47
Speaker 2: comparison I think that's out there. China also says it's
4:51
Speaker 2: going to take forceful measures if they continue this, and
4:54
Speaker 2: mainly safeguarding it's legitimate rights to interest around what the
4:57
Speaker 2: US is doing around steel. And of course this gets
4:59
Speaker 2: back the whole point of why this trade is so important.
5:03
Speaker 2: These teriffs are so important. All right, Let's get to
5:06
Speaker 2: another piece this of course, is some breaking news. We'll
5:08
Speaker 2: call it the Taco Report, and that is the KOBEEC
5:11
Speaker 2: letter breaks out that the Trump administration is now setting
5:14
Speaker 2: a firm deadline of July eighth to finalize these trade deals. Now,
5:18
Speaker 2: what this means is that Trump is urging all these
5:21
Speaker 2: countries to submit their best deal. So you, guys, Wan,
5:25
Speaker 2: get your best taco deal in there by Wednesday to
5:27
Speaker 2: avoid a reinstatement of terrors. I don't understand if world
5:32
Speaker 2: leaders are taking him serious anymore because they understand maybe
5:35
Speaker 2: his ploy of how he's negotiating these deals. Then again,
5:39
Speaker 2: he could always surprise us. So make sure and keeping
5:41
Speaker 2: an eye on this. When Trump is making clear that
5:43
Speaker 2: the tariff pause ends in thirty six days, so that's
5:45
Speaker 2: his last little hammer to try to get them to
5:48
Speaker 2: go forward. Now, how does this play into the overall market, Well,
5:51
Speaker 2: Scott Bessen says, wait a minute, let me kind of
5:54
Speaker 2: break down what's really going on with China.
5:57
Speaker 1: Take a look.
5:58
Speaker 6: JP Morgan, CEO Jamie Diamond spoke this week at an
6:01
Speaker 6: economic forum and he gave this read on Beijing.
6:06
Speaker 7: I just got back from China last week. They're not scared, folks.
6:10
Speaker 7: Did there's notion that Conna come bout in America, I don't.
6:12
Speaker 7: I wouldn't count in that, you know. And when they
6:14
Speaker 7: have a problem, they put one hundred thousand engineers on it,
6:16
Speaker 7: and they've been preparing for this for years.
6:19
Speaker 6: Have you underestimated the Chinese state's backbone here.
6:23
Speaker 8: Again, Margaret, I hope it doesn't come to that. And
6:27
Speaker 8: Jamie's a great banker, I know him well, but I
6:29
Speaker 8: would vociferously disagree with that assessment that the laws of
6:36
Speaker 8: economics and gravity applying to the Chinese economy and the
6:40
Speaker 8: Chinese system just like everyone else.
6:43
Speaker 2: All right, So Besant and Diamond on different sides. Let
6:47
Speaker 2: me know what you guys think. I feel a little
6:49
Speaker 2: bit more on the best in side because I think
6:51
Speaker 2: money talks.
6:52
Speaker 1: It's markets eventually dictate the.
6:55
Speaker 2: Course of history, and right now the US market is
6:58
Speaker 2: the one that is the most important in the world,
7:00
Speaker 2: especially when you look at the amount of imports that
7:02
Speaker 2: are playing out on this. Now Best goes on too
7:05
Speaker 2: this and talks a little bit more around debt market
7:08
Speaker 2: and how this is playing in.
7:09
Speaker 1: Take a look.
7:10
Speaker 6: JP Morgan's Diamond also predicted a debt market crisis. How
7:15
Speaker 6: do you avoid that? Bond market crisis he's predicting.
7:18
Speaker 8: So again, I've known Jamie a long time and for
7:21
Speaker 8: his entire career he's made predictions like this. Fortunately none
7:25
Speaker 8: of them have come true. That's why he's a banker.
7:29
Speaker 1: So you got to look at that.
7:30
Speaker 2: And you know, I had to fact check Scott Vesent
7:33
Speaker 2: on this to find out did that actually happen, because
7:36
Speaker 2: Jamie Diamond is very notorious for this.
7:38
Speaker 1: So sure enough, if you go in.
7:40
Speaker 2: And you ai this, you look at all the economic
7:43
Speaker 2: predictions he's made over the last really quite a while.
7:46
Speaker 2: Twenty two he made an economic hurricane prediction wrong. Twenty
7:51
Speaker 2: two he also said a recession in high inflation. It dropped,
7:55
Speaker 2: recession fears dropping twenty two to five. We have a
7:58
Speaker 2: post World War three order global instability, not necessarily wrong,
8:03
Speaker 2: but definitely most likely going to be wrong. And then
8:07
Speaker 2: a crack in the bond market this has not yet
8:10
Speaker 2: been done, could be, and then recession likely outcome because
8:15
Speaker 2: of tariffs. And again this has not happened either. So
8:18
Speaker 2: you know, Diamond has been wrong almost five or fives. Now,
8:21
Speaker 2: I don't know if odds are good, maybe Diamond's right finally,
8:25
Speaker 2: But the point being is that Besson is exactly on
8:27
Speaker 2: point with where Jamie Diamond is, and that is on
8:30
Speaker 2: the other side of the story. One thing to also
8:33
Speaker 2: consider is the continued downward pressure of US recession. This means, guys,
8:38
Speaker 2: I think, is that we are continuing a potential maybe
8:43
Speaker 2: sideways or small market correction before we see a blow
8:46
Speaker 2: off top and moving on into some very growth centered figures.
8:50
Speaker 2: And a lot of this will depend on how the
8:52
Speaker 2: FED plays into the coming weeks and how Trump is
8:56
Speaker 2: also going to play out the rest of these tariffs.
8:59
Speaker 2: Gold is also on track for another seventy five billion
9:02
Speaker 2: in inflow this year. This would be the largest in history.
9:05
Speaker 2: Some people would look at that and say, well, that's
9:06
Speaker 2: volatility in the market. People are flying, you know, into
9:09
Speaker 2: more secure assets like gold which kind of hold their balance,
9:13
Speaker 2: and if you look at that, I think bitcoin also
9:16
Speaker 2: along with some digital assets, will also play along with
9:19
Speaker 2: this as well. So get ready all coin season could
9:21
Speaker 2: be very near. Gold is also getting more media attention
9:24
Speaker 2: and this is also one of those things that is
9:27
Speaker 2: strengthening I think these alternative assets, and that is a
9:30
Speaker 2: big deal. Look at this by comparison at the twenty
9:33
Speaker 2: twenty peak, the number of stories only reached around one
9:37
Speaker 2: hundred thousand, and this of course has gone up significantly
9:39
Speaker 2: so yere to day gold prices have also rallied twenty
9:42
Speaker 2: five percent, outperforming most other major market classes. So very
9:46
Speaker 2: strong right now on this. Just had a chance to
9:49
Speaker 2: go to the XRP summit or event XRP Las Vegas
9:52
Speaker 2: and also the Bitcoin event, and it was interesting to
9:55
Speaker 2: see the amount of people that were still you know,
9:57
Speaker 2: talking about.
9:58
Speaker 1: Gold at these events.
9:59
Speaker 2: So I was very interesting the diversification from digital asset
10:03
Speaker 2: holders going in that direction.
10:04
Speaker 1: All right, So one other point I want.
10:05
Speaker 2: To hit too is this statement right here, relationship between
10:08
Speaker 2: the US dollar and the treasury yields, all this is
10:11
Speaker 2: broken down. Since April second, we had a ten year
10:13
Speaker 2: note yield that rows plus twenty seven basis points.
10:17
Speaker 1: This is now up to four point four to three.
10:19
Speaker 1: Now what does this mean.
10:20
Speaker 2: This means that we are continuing to see something that
10:22
Speaker 2: has never happened before. And if you compare this because
10:26
Speaker 2: of what's going on with the tax bill, if you're
10:28
Speaker 2: pro tax bill or you're against the tax bill, the
10:31
Speaker 2: opportunity here may actually play well for digital asset either way.
10:35
Speaker 2: And there's a couple of reasons why. If it's pro
10:37
Speaker 2: it's most likely going to create an energized market that
10:41
Speaker 2: of course will have an effect on digital assets if
10:44
Speaker 2: it does not get passed, and we see a lot
10:46
Speaker 2: of variation and that there's going to create some unstability,
10:49
Speaker 2: and I think that too is going to be good
10:51
Speaker 2: for alternative assets. All this definitely not playing into what
10:55
Speaker 2: we've seen overall. Now, what is the reason that we
10:57
Speaker 2: don't see the traditional model the way it has been.
11:01
Speaker 2: If you look at this chart right here says the
11:03
Speaker 2: dollar is decoupling from treasury wills underscores a broader, potentially
11:07
Speaker 2: more troubling development. Global investors are reassessing America's role in
11:11
Speaker 2: the financial safe haven. Now, this is something that I
11:14
Speaker 2: do believe is happening because there are many new scenarios.
11:20
Speaker 2: One blockchain is playing a major role in the global
11:23
Speaker 2: financial system.
11:24
Speaker 1: We are looking at a.
11:25
Speaker 2: Stable coin pretty much on the eve of happening, and
11:28
Speaker 2: this will play a major role. Then you've got AI
11:32
Speaker 2: and the development of all that technology and what country
11:35
Speaker 2: is going to end up being the strength around that.
11:38
Speaker 2: This is something that again will play and put a
11:40
Speaker 2: lot of pressure on global markets, which is why we're
11:43
Speaker 2: seeing a little bit of an underscoring around what this
11:46
Speaker 2: may look like in terms of the dollar being a
11:49
Speaker 2: safe haven. So it goes back to digital assets being
11:52
Speaker 2: really the safe haven. That's what I'm looking at. Gold,
11:54
Speaker 2: of course, is playing into this as well. Another point
11:57
Speaker 2: I want to get on is this right here, the
11:58
Speaker 2: GOP trillion dollars in tax cuts. Trump's big deal right
12:04
Speaker 2: now is how it addresses at the Senate level. Now,
12:07
Speaker 2: this is the point that we have to get through
12:09
Speaker 2: because right now there's a lot of policy experts that
12:11
Speaker 2: are bracing for some changes especially to this, and I
12:15
Speaker 2: think whether or not we get this by the fourth
12:17
Speaker 2: of July, the way that we get it is I
12:20
Speaker 2: think more important.
12:21
Speaker 1: All Right, before I give a.
12:22
Speaker 2: Breakdown on this, let me run a clip for you
12:24
Speaker 2: guys to give you some more insights.
12:25
Speaker 1: Take a look.
12:26
Speaker 9: Well, let's remember no one thought we would pass it
12:29
Speaker 9: in the House by Memorial Day.
12:30
Speaker 4: We did that, and now it's in the Senate's hands.
12:33
Speaker 9: Not a perfect bill, but it does remarkable work in
12:36
Speaker 9: the tax space.
12:37
Speaker 10: This new Congress is coming in, this new Centate was
12:40
Speaker 10: coming in with a sort of very fiscally responsible approach.
12:44
Speaker 10: I think the bond market is suggesting they don't really
12:47
Speaker 10: like this, Well, I.
12:48
Speaker 4: Would say a couple of things on that.
12:50
Speaker 9: I mean, this is a tax bill, right, so we're
12:52
Speaker 9: focused on taxes. If you think about it, Joe, there's
12:54
Speaker 9: a lot of money sitting on the sidelines waiting to
12:56
Speaker 9: be spent in private equity, in banks, and on personal level,
13:01
Speaker 9: they're waiting to see predictability and certainty.
13:04
Speaker 4: In the economy. That's what this bill does.
13:05
Speaker 9: It gives predictability uncertainty, and that's frankly what people want.
13:09
Speaker 10: The folks who are benefiting from that are not the
13:12
Speaker 10: folks who are investing their own money. This is not
13:15
Speaker 10: to benefit the investors, meaning like and you'd say, you
13:18
Speaker 10: don't need to incentivize teachers, you don't need to incentivize
13:21
Speaker 10: doctors or anybody else, but that that issue real estate, oil, gas,
13:24
Speaker 10: private equity, vendra capital. Those people need a special incentive
13:29
Speaker 10: to actually take those jobs, and that they wouldn't take
13:32
Speaker 10: those jobs, and those smart people wouldn't do that work otherwise.
13:34
Speaker 4: Is that your position?
13:35
Speaker 9: Well, I wouldn't put it exactly like that, but what
13:38
Speaker 9: I think we've seen is this provision being in place
13:41
Speaker 9: has allowed private equity to go in and help take
13:44
Speaker 9: over businesses that are distressed and otherwise, and I think
13:46
Speaker 9: the argument can be made by having this provision in
13:49
Speaker 9: there has allowed for more economic growth.
13:51
Speaker 5: That's what people always say, and you're never going to
13:54
Speaker 5: get the answer you want. They're going to say that
13:56
Speaker 5: it's worked really well and don't touch it to say
14:00
Speaker 5: it's fair. They're not going to say that it needs
14:02
Speaker 5: to be incentivized. They're not going to say any of this,
14:04
Speaker 5: and you're never going to get that answered, no matter
14:06
Speaker 5: how what you say to these poor people that come up.
14:10
Speaker 2: All right, So many factors into this bill that play
14:13
Speaker 2: into this. And this is something that I think a
14:15
Speaker 2: lot of people don't understand is the tax situation around
14:19
Speaker 2: this bill. The cut is really not a cut, it's
14:22
Speaker 2: actually just extending what has already been done. This is
14:25
Speaker 2: the same tax program that we had before. It's an
14:28
Speaker 2: extension of that and that was in place during the
14:31
Speaker 2: last administration. So the point being is that if this
14:34
Speaker 2: goes through, this is going to be bullish for the
14:36
Speaker 2: market in general.
14:37
Speaker 1: Now, if they.
14:38
Speaker 2: Make some modifications, sure there could be some wild cards
14:42
Speaker 2: in there that may cause some impact, but I think
14:44
Speaker 2: the key here is does this get passed in the
14:47
Speaker 2: Senate at least in most of its entirety. That'll be
14:49
Speaker 2: the factor that you got to play into into the market.
14:52
Speaker 2: And that's the thing that I think will help digital assets. Now,
14:55
Speaker 2: this last point I want to get on is just
14:56
Speaker 2: how much the market has been growing. Look at Bitcoin
15:00
Speaker 2: doing its normal fifty percent up. Then you would look
15:04
Speaker 2: right now where Bitcoin would pass Warren Buffett and that
15:08
Speaker 2: would happen this year, and then Zuck would potentially be
15:11
Speaker 2: in its.
15:11
Speaker 1: Cross here sometime next year.
15:13
Speaker 2: And then eventually you're moving in on Elon territory, which
15:16
Speaker 2: is pretty hard to get into in terms of market
15:19
Speaker 2: cap of the entire market.
15:21
Speaker 1: So this is a big deal. Guys.
15:23
Speaker 2: We are talking about a transfer I believe, of wealth worldwide.
15:28
Speaker 2: We are seeing digital assets being the center of this.
15:30
Speaker 2: And it's still is very very early, because you're talking
15:34
Speaker 2: about a market cap here that is still considerably smaller
15:37
Speaker 2: than its nearest being in the Gold Room. So be
15:40
Speaker 2: on the lookout for a lot of these changes, because
15:42
Speaker 2: I think we are about ready to see something big
15:44
Speaker 2: happen in these markets. Make sure and get in on
15:46
Speaker 2: a diamond circle. It's a great place to get addital
15:48
Speaker 2: content from us. And if you want to reach me,
15:51
Speaker 2: It's out there on X at Paul Barrett. We'll catch
15:53
Speaker 2: you next time, right here on tech Path