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Gareth Jenkins on Turkey: U.S Relations Will Be Strained(Audio) · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: This is taking stock with pin Box and Kathleen Hayes
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  Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Turkish authority US have moved to widen
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  Speaker 1: their purge of perceived opponents, removing thousands of police officers
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  Speaker 1: from their posts. This is all part of a crackdown
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  Speaker 1: that follows the failed military coup attempt that was aimed
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  Speaker 1: at toppling the government of President Urign. Here to tell
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  Speaker 1: us more, Gareth Jenkins. He is a writer, independent political
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  Speaker 1: security analyst and a senior fellow with the Central Asia
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  Speaker 1: Caucuss Institute and the Silk Road Studies Program joint Center.
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  Speaker 1: He joins us from Istanbul. Gareth, thank you very much
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  Speaker 1: for being with us. Begin by telling us where you
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  Speaker 1: were when the coup attempt took place. Well, on last
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  Speaker 1: Friday night, I was actually returning. I live on the
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  Speaker 1: Asian side of the city nights, returning from the European side,
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  Speaker 1: across one of the bridges over the Bosphorus Um in
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  Speaker 1: a little minibus when we noticed there was a unit
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  Speaker 1: of Turkish soldiers, mostly conscripts, shutting off the bridge. Did
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  Speaker 1: you believe was happening? Well, normally the responsibility to security
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  Speaker 1: on the bridge belongs to the police. There occasionally, of course,
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  Speaker 1: a bomb threats in Istanbul, we have a bad security situation.
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  Speaker 1: Also occasionally people try to commit suicide by jumping off
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  Speaker 1: the bridge, and when that happened, it's always the police
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  Speaker 1: are responsible for diverting traffic. So as soon as I
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  Speaker 1: saw the military uniforms and this was regular army. I
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  Speaker 1: knew something was very strange was going on, but it
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  Speaker 1: wasn't until then I got on my telephone and I
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  Speaker 1: spoke to people in Anchor were being told that, you know,
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  Speaker 1: jets had been flying low over the parliament to understand
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  Speaker 1: understood that this was actually a coup attempt. Now the
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  Speaker 1: Interior Ministry says that it is fired nearly nine thousand
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  Speaker 1: police officers, and this follows the arrest of more than
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  Speaker 1: six thousand military personnel as well as generals and admirals.
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  Speaker 1: They also suspended nearly three thousand judges over the weekend.
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  Speaker 1: Who are these people? What did they want to accomplish?
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  Speaker 1: I think the honest answers of that. These people in
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  Speaker 1: the innocence of charges. I mean the latest figure that's
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  Speaker 1: going around the Turkish media that a hundred generals and
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  Speaker 1: admirals have been taken into custody. There's only three hundred
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  Speaker 1: in the whole armed forces. I mean, to put it bluntly,
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  Speaker 1: if this number, if one third of the generals and
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  Speaker 1: adamals have been involved in the coup plot, it probably
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  Speaker 1: would have succeeded um. In the early hours after that,
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  Speaker 1: the the attempted coup. The number of people who have
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  Speaker 1: been taken into custody was only around about two thousands,
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  Speaker 1: and those are the people who've gone taken up the
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  Speaker 1: streets that the military units should include a lot of
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  Speaker 1: conscripts like the ones I saw on the bridge. These
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  Speaker 1: are young boys who didn't know what they were doing
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  Speaker 1: um and thought they were just as part of some
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  Speaker 1: kind of military exercise. So the number of people actually
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  Speaker 1: took to the streets is um of the kind of
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  Speaker 1: coup plot is only a few hundred. And yet we've
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  Speaker 1: seen with President Alan since this happened, and it was
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  Speaker 1: a genuine a champ, there's no question about that, but
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  Speaker 1: he's used as an excuse basically to try to destroy
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  Speaker 1: um all of the people he suspects of not being
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  Speaker 1: sufficiently loyal to him personally in the armed forces and
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  Speaker 1: the judiciary. The an answment about two thousand, nine hundred
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  Speaker 1: and fifty judges and prosecutors came within hours of the
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  Speaker 1: coup being sucressly rolled up. We still haven't seen any
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  Speaker 1: evidence whatsoever for their involvement in the coup. Well Secretary
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  Speaker 1: of Stage Arm Kerry in Brussels today he urged Turkey
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  Speaker 1: to show restraint as much as Turkey is a member
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  Speaker 1: of NATO. Do you think that Turkey it takes any
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  Speaker 1: of these comments seriously? The evidence at the moment suggests
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  Speaker 1: so much not. Um. No, we were seeing these purges
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  Speaker 1: increasing and widening. We've also had more than a dozen
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  Speaker 1: news sites closed down in the last couple of days. Um,
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  Speaker 1: So it doesn't These warnings don't seem to be making
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  Speaker 1: any difference whatsoever. Do you have any insight into who
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  Speaker 1: the coup plotters are and what did they really want
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  Speaker 1: to accomplish in policy terms? Um? What's coming out of
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  Speaker 1: the government of these are reported to be the followers
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  Speaker 1: of the Islamic preacher of Fetula Gulen has been living
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  Speaker 1: in exile and Pennsylvania's that they have yet to produce
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  Speaker 1: any proof linking Glenn or any of his followers to
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  Speaker 1: what actually happened. When you look at the profile of
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  Speaker 1: the coup plot as they took over the tr tr T,
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  Speaker 1: the States run television station and released the declaration, the
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  Speaker 1: name that they gave themselves and the content of that
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  Speaker 1: declaration much more consistent with a very small number of
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  Speaker 1: hardline secular Turkish nationalists, members of the Officer Corps then
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  Speaker 1: they are with the followers of the Tula Gulen. But
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  Speaker 1: at the moment we don't really know that. I should
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  Speaker 1: the size that the government, even though it's accusing Glenn,
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  Speaker 1: and they have these some ministers who have said directly
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  Speaker 1: because Glenn's in the States, actually America was behind the coup.
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  Speaker 1: They haven't yet produced one shred of evidence to support
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  Speaker 1: these clamps. And they've also tried to initiate extradition proceedings.
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  Speaker 1: Isn't that correct. They said they're going to. They haven't
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  Speaker 1: officially started it yet, but they said they're going to.
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  Speaker 1: And John Kerry, you know, I said, if they're going
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  Speaker 1: to do this, they need to produce some proof that
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  Speaker 1: Glen has been behind it. Now, the scale of the purges,
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  Speaker 1: especially among these security forces. How is the public reacted
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  Speaker 1: to this news? I think with a lot of shock.
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  Speaker 1: I mean it was it was very shocking experience to
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  Speaker 1: go through anyway, until five o'clock in the morning, for example,
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  Speaker 1: I had F sixteen flying very low over my apartment
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  Speaker 1: and with the sonic booms shaking the building. And I
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  Speaker 1: think a lot of the Turkish population, like me, you know,
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  Speaker 1: we haven't really slept very much. We're still stunned that
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  Speaker 1: this happened at all, and then to see the scale
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  Speaker 1: of the retaliation of these purges being implemented by aired Land.
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  Speaker 1: Whereas I said, I think anybody knows that if a
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  Speaker 1: hundred and three generals and admirals have been involved, this
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  Speaker 1: coup would have succeeded. This is not possible. But around
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  Speaker 1: about a thousand, one thousand, five hundred people on the streets,
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  Speaker 1: including conscripts who didn't know what they were doing. And
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  Speaker 1: then to say this was part of a massive coup
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  Speaker 1: plot involving one third of the high command of the
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  Speaker 1: armed forces. So I think it's clear to everybody that
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  Speaker 1: something very strange is going on, and what the government
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  Speaker 1: says it's doing is not actually what's taking place. What
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  Speaker 1: is the backdrop for those interested in the health or
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  Speaker 1: the struggle of the Turkish economy currently, I think the
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  Speaker 1: main as I'm talking to you, as some of the
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  Speaker 1: airline supporters are going down to the street behind, we've
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  Speaker 1: also had a lot of these taking to the streets
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  Speaker 1: in in the last couple of days, and um, this
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  Speaker 1: is going to have a direct impact, I think, first
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  Speaker 1: of all, on on tourism. Tourism has already been hard
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  Speaker 1: hit by the bombings. We've had a very strong security concerns.
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  Speaker 1: Um the next one I think is going to be
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  Speaker 1: the Turkey looks at the moment like, uh, it's a
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  Speaker 1: very unstable country, perhaps even on the verge of becoming
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  Speaker 1: a failed state. That's the perception. I'm not saying that's
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  Speaker 1: how it is, so of course we're going to get
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  Speaker 1: investors becoming very cautious. The stock market in Istanbul took
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  Speaker 1: a big hit today, I think it was down nearly
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  Speaker 1: eight percent, and Turkey is very heavily dependent on foreign financing,
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  Speaker 1: so I think as your companies, they'll find it very
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  Speaker 1: difficult to get new loans at the moment from abroad,
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  Speaker 1: and as they roll over existing loans, I think that
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  Speaker 1: the risk premium is probably going to be quite high.
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  Speaker 1: We're speaking with Gareth Jenkins. He is a writer, independent
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  Speaker 1: political security analyst and also a senior Fellow with the
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  Speaker 1: Central Asia Asia Caucuses Institute in Silk Road Studies Program
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  Speaker 1: joint ENTERM. Gareth, the ongoing efforts to fight ISIS by
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  Speaker 1: using American air bases in Turkey. Is that effort going
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  Speaker 1: to be compromised because of the reaction to the coup
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  Speaker 1: attempted coup. Rather, I think that generally Turkish security is
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  Speaker 1: going to be compromised by all of these purges, I
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  Speaker 1: mean as well as ISIS. Of course, Turkey is engaged
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  Speaker 1: in a war with the Kurdistan Workers Party the p
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  Speaker 1: k K. We've got a huge amount of confusion at
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  Speaker 1: the moment in the security apparatus, which includes intelligence, which
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  Speaker 1: is essential to of course to try to intercept ISIS.
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  Speaker 1: We saw on immediately out of the coup that the
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  Speaker 1: main base in the southeast Turkey, Angelic, which the US
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  Speaker 1: is using for the campaign against ISIS lexicity there was cut,
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  Speaker 1: so the US had to suspend its air campaign for time.
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  Speaker 1: And it looks like we're going to have some very
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  Speaker 1: serious tensions but focle tensions between Washington and Anchor over
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  Speaker 1: aired once assistance on the extradition of Gulen, which is
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  Speaker 1: going to make it very difficult to have the cooperation,
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  Speaker 1: particularly at a time when the US use of a
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  Speaker 1: Turkish air space is of those Turkish air base is
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  Speaker 1: so critical to its campaign against sciences. And just quickly Garetha.
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  Speaker 1: When the President again arrived in in Istanbul, it was Istanbul,
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  Speaker 1: not the capital Anchora. What does that tell us there
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  Speaker 1: were concerns that there were some rebel F sixteen in
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  Speaker 1: the air, and there was also a lot of concerns
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  Speaker 1: in about the situation in Anchor because the the high
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  Speaker 1: command of the of the military had been taken hostage
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  Speaker 1: by the coup plotters, and as far as I know,
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  Speaker 1: I haven't seen ed and then stayed in Example for
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  Speaker 1: several days rather than trying to go to the Anchor.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you very much for spending time with us. Gareth
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  Speaker 1: Jenkins is a writer, independent political security analyst and also
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  Speaker 1: a Senior Fellow with the Central Asia Caucuses Institute and
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  Speaker 1: Silk Roads Study Program. You're listening to taking Stock. I'm
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  Speaker 1: Pim Fox and this is Bloomberg. H