Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 149 : Prospect Face/Off

Transcript

Ep. 149 : Prospect Face/Off · Cards & Categories

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome everybody to episode one forty nine of
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Cards and Categories. I am Mike Coolard from Baseball Prospectus,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: joined per usual by my very good friend Jeremy Brewer
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: from Rasball. How you doing tonight, buddy? How many times
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: have you watched that Detroit Tigers chasing the black squirrel
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: video at this point?
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: Probably not enough, but that's just because you know, the
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: Skip Schumacher cannot be outdone by this in chasing squirrels,
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: so I didn't want to get a little jealous of
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: that one. But lots of fun, and that's probably pretty
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: much the only entertaining thing about the Tigers recently until
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: the trade deadline here and we see true Schooble find
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: a potentially new home. But besides that, you know things
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: are going great. Ready to get in some fun news
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: and notes. I don't think we have everybody injured tonight,
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: and got a few few trades and things like that,
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: so we are just getting into the thick of trade deadline,
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: so I'm excited there's actually some movements talk about.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Yes exactly, we will have certainly tons of it to
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: talk about next week, that's for sure. Usually I've looked
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: back Historically, our trade headline pods are like pushing to
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: two and a half hours just because of the volume
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: of moves that happen. And you know what, people are saying,
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: it might end up being a muted trade deadline here
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. I think we've also said that
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: the past couple of years, as we've been earning the
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: underneath this new playoff format system with that third wild card,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: and I think it always surprises us because it is
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: always on a razor's edge, it feels in terms of
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: teams being in or out and how quickly it can happen.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, just look at how rapidly the Marlins the
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Cardinals have fallen out. I actually think Tigers are probably
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: going to be keeping schooble and going for it only
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: a handful of games out in the Al Central. So
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a fun deadline. I'm looking
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: forward to it. We're gonna have a very very long
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: pod next week probably to cover it. Also, make sure
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: you practice do those vocal warm ups accordingly. Before we
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: get into our normal show, though, let's preview what we're
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: gonna do for our main segment here today. If you're
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: looking at the name of the pod. You're probably like,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: what on Earth prospect face off? What is this reference
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: back to this ninety movie with John Travolta and Nick Cage. Well, one,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: I just finished Spider and Water on Prime Video, great
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: series with Nick Cage. So that's maybe why I'm feeling
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: it a little bit. But I've also noticed the past
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: few years, I think it's really stood out that there's
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: lots of organizations that are really drafting the same type
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: of profile or acquiring the same type of profile and
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: stocking their minor league systems with it. We've run into
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: this a little bit with the Giants and the Luis Hernandez,
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Johnny Lovell, Joe suargen Zals talk that we had a
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: few weeks ago. It also came up a little bit
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: when we were talking about Nathan Fluelling and putting him
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: into our PC, where I called that like Nathan Fwelling
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: versus Taitan Gray's a pretty interesting discussion now for the Rays,
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: and so we've got a handful of names, a handful
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: of teams where we've got prospect debates. I'll offer them
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: up to you and then we'll discuss from there. See
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: what our preferences are. But before we do that, let's
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: get into those news and notes that you alluded to.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: We've got one trade to cover, but it is maybe
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: if we hadn't discussed this on Sunday when it happened
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: over the weekend, it would have been a different story.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: We had the Red Sox and Nationals linking up for
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: a trade, sending Connolly early the Southpaw to the Nationals
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: in exchange for Curtits Mead infielder you know, first basement,
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: second basement, third baseman, future DH and future il stint
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: person for the rest of play twenty six. Maybe because
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: the first game with the Red Sox, Mead came out
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: and shattered his wrist, So that's not great allowing them
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: to bring back Nick Soguard. I mean, if this is
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: the end of the season for Curtis Mead, is quite
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: the little run that he's put together in his age
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: twenty five season two fifty three, three fifty three, four
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: ninety eight slash line a one thirty three WRC plus
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: with seventeen homers and six dolen bases can almost double
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: that up. It would have been like thirty homers. Tense
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: deals over an entire year with like a two fifty average,
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: very very useful. And then on the flip side, Condonly
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: Early is still dealing with an elbow injury while he
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: joins the Nats, probably a little bit of why he
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: was traded, because you never like to hear anything about
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: elbow injuries in young arms like Connolly Early. But it's
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: apparently only inflammation and should be back at some point
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: later this season for the Nats. So what's your take here?
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, obviously it's a little bit more of a
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: long term view. I think it would have been a
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: little bit more glowing in terms of mead joining the
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: Red Sox and getting to a hacked the Green monster there.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: But going forward, what do you like about these landing
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: spots or dislike about these landing spots for Meat and Early?
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I actually think it's a pretty good
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: landing spot for both of them, you know, I think
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: it is it tells you where where their values are.
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: I think ultimately Early is. I think Early a really
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: really intriguing pitcher. He's definitely been kind of figuring things
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: out this year. He looked dominant last year when he
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: came up for a cup of coffee, But I think
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: he ultimately kind of settles into maybe like a type
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: number three, number four type type type role. But he's
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: going to be I say, in a lower pressure environment,
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: probably a better division, to be pitching in, better ballpark
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: in my opinion, to be to be pitching in, and
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: uh surprisingly a decent enough team. That's not kind of
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: the things that we've we've worried about with the Nationals
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: before the wind total. So I think it's it's relatively even,
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: if not better for early because he was having trouble.
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: You know, there was questions about was he going to
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: be a full time that rotation and once you had
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: everybody healthy next year, like they were gonna have a
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: tight rotation. Once Crochet is getting back, you know, there's
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: just a lot going there. Meat. On the other hand,
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: he I say, he's come out of nowhere this year,
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: But he's come out of nowhere this year after a
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: few middling years trying to figure things out. He was
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: a strong prospect. So it gives me a lot more credence.
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: And under the covers things look pretty gosh darn good.
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: So I think it's a kind of a win win trade.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: It's rare that you see the one for one trade
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: and both teams kind of come out in a better spot.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: Both players come out.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: On a better spot.
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: And I think that's what this one was. Am I
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: like incredibly high en curased speed. Next year probably not,
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: but give me, give me mead As kind of a
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: corner infield, a decent corner infield, and I'm happy with that.
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: And he might become more like maybe he's playing a
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: little this Miguel Vargas kind of kind of roll post
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: type prospect, and there's a lot lot worse things could
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: happen here with the guy that's really approved his plate
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: approach and just overall, you know, play profile. So I
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: like it for both teams, like for both players.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'm there with you too, And yeah,
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: I'm right there with you on Mead. In terms of
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: it being maybe like a possible Vargas or Munsi situation,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: I think in real life it's a little bit more
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: of a muted trade just because Meat is an actual
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: just like a straight up butcher with the glove like
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: he is not great in the field and has no arm,
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: and so it'll be interesting to see where they find
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: a home for him in Boston, considering the corners are
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: already pretty clogged up, and so is DH and yeah,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: everything in the in the profile just screams like this
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: dude finally figured it out. And he made tweaks as well,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: like in the box and at the plate. And what's
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: also encouraging about that too, is he showed that adjustment.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: So just kind of like Miguel Vargas or it's a
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: little bit like next monthsy Ish too in terms of
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: the profile, but from the right side where you got
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: a lot of good traits that have kind of come
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: together for meat and I think there's a good chance
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: you can keep going all right. Well, time for another
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: first rounder injury to discuss, because this one's actually the
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: second one for Juan Soto, the New York Mets outfielder,
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: went down with a stringed calf. And if that sounds familiar,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: he did it earlier this season. That's what kept him out.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: It's the other calf now, so it is the right
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: calf at the beginning of the year, it's the left
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: half now. The first one was about I think it
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: was just a shade over three weeks he was out.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: This one it's a little bit more serious of a
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: string So it sounds like it's gonna be four to
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: six weeks. Now. This is a situation where actually I
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: do believe that Sodo is going to work his way
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: back because there's an element to this where you know
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Mike trut has done this over the years too, where
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: once you know you're an all time great and you've
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: pretty much just got a player way into the Hall
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: of Fame, you're looking to accumulate stats. And so even
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: if the Mets are out of it, I think Sodo's
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: got that fire underneath him to really push the numbers
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: up and make that Hall of Fame resume even better
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: than it already is. Right now, it's a two eighty three,
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: four oh eight, five thirty nine slash time one fifty
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: eight wic plus with twenty one homers, seven stolen bases
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: in eighty four games. Again, it's a situation you double
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: that you're looking at forty to fifteen. This is exactly
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: who Wan Soto is, right and so probably an easy
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: first round pick because you can just about pencil in
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: this line for next year. Is that what you're doing, Yeah,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: that's where I'm what I'm doing.
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: I was trying to look to see where I had
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: them my top one, my top ten for next year.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: I think I had them like number five. From a
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: hitter perspective, there's there's enough speed there to be dangerous,
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: but overall it's just the floor for a healthy Soto
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: is just unbelievable. Like you look back the last three years,
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: this guy's averaging basically forty homers, one hundred and ten runs,
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: one hundred and five RBIs and call it twenty steals. Now,
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: let's be fair, it's like twelve seals, seven steals, thirty
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: eight steals, like I think there's an outler in there,
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: but you know, also able to hit basically to seventy five.
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: Like that's just an absolute slam dunk first rounder. Really
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: never has had health issues until a little bit creeped
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: up this year, but I'm willing to chalk that up.
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: So if anything, he actually got better this year. He's
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate was down to thirteen percent, which is kind
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: of where he was, you know, in his heyday with Washington,
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: even a little bit better than that. So yeah, plug
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: and play. So it was an early first rounder next year,
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: no questions about it. I do agree with you, he's
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: gonna probably get back later this year. You know, he
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: could also take a little easy on the base paths
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: as well. The rest of the year. I would be
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: too concerned with that. Maybe there's a discount next year
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: just because of a little injury concern, but discounts like
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: one spot in the first round maybe not much there.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I mean given the volume of injuries we
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: had We've had to first rounders this year that I mean,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: everybody's getting dinged a little bit, So I think, yes, true,
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: it's very true. I mean you have Otani with the knee,
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: you have Judge with the rib, you have Bobby Wit
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: with the back room mirrors, with the hammate soda with
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: the cavs Acuna with legs. So you're going to run
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: into I think a lot of injury questions where I
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: don't know if there's going to be that big of
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: a discount unless there is any push within the fantasy
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: kind of realm at large trying to move Pca and
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: James Wood and Junior Camanaro further up. But like I think,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: when you look at the plate skills, it's really tough
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: to overlook that kind of five pack that we just
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: talked about from this year's first rounders, that they walk,
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: they don't strike out, a ton, they make great impact,
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: they give you all categories, and so it's really tough
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: to overlook that. And I think they'll probably still be
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: around the top of the first round next year.
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: Two yep, I agree.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's get to a minor league injury, which we
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: don't usually cover, but when it it haunts the number
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: one overall pitching prospect in all of the game, I
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: think we've got to talk about it. So we're talking
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Seth Hernandez from the Pirates going down with an oblique
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: strain on his left side. So certainly this ends any
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: chance that he was maybe going to make a debut
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: for the Pirates late in the season as a part
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: of the playoff run. I think that could have been
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: a possibility, but this oblique strain looks like it's probably
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: gonna keep him out six to eight weeks. Honestly, I
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: think he's probably done for the season because you don't
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: mess around with a guy like this and try to
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: rush him back from an oblique injury like this. Look
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: at what like the Marlins are doing with Thomas White
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: in that shoulder. It's you know, different because it's a shoulder,
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: but you're still talking a pretty major part of the
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: torso and oblique strains like this can really derail things fast,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: I think for prospect pitchers, because not only if you
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: return from it, are you risking reinjury, but you're also
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: risking just mechanical change and wonkiness that can result from pain.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: And so the Pirates are probably going to play this
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: one pretty slow. I would think seventy four innings of
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: two forty three ERA with a three fifty five fip, A,
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: forty point four percent strikeout rate, twenty nine point eight
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: percent K minus b B if it is the end
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: of the season for Seth Hernandez, did that across low
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: A and high A? So Brew is is this giving
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: you any pause in terms of I know you've been real,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: real into Seth Hernandez yep and really have been trying
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: to invest in him where you can. Does this oblique
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: injury give you any just doubts about what he can
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: do going into the future.
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't. It's not really changing anything for me.
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: The only thing it changes is maybe the timetable a little,
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: because I really do believe what you said about the
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: Pirates and a playoff run was actually in the cards.
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: Like if you looked at his innings pitched for the
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: last like four or five starts, they were they were
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: tailoring him down. They were really trying to protect that arm.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: And I I think we were really close to a
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: Double A promotion where he was gonna have about a
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: month at Double A and then if they were close,
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: he was coming into the bullpen arm to the major
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: league level. I really think that's the path we were down,
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: and that's why they were fine, like not I say,
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: de stretching him, kind of shortening those those outings to
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: protect the arm because he was going five or six
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: innings earlier in the year, no problem, no questions asked.
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: And you know the last few starts three and two
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: thirds three innings, two innings, three innings like that, they
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: were absolutely slowing him down. And it's not like he
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: wasn't successful. I think in the last three starts he
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: gave up one earned run. Now the fourth one there
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: he have a five, which is like his worst start
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: of the entire year. But this guy is no question,
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: best pitching prospect in the miners in my opinion. And
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: now I think instead of questioning whether he's gonna break
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: camp next year with with the Pirates, I think This
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: is kind of pushing him back towards that like May
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: June debut next season, which in the grand scheme things
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: is probably not a bad thing because they he can
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: get a little wrestle, he'll do on six and seven
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: day rests and short outings, start spring training late like that.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: You can see the pattern that's gonna happen here. So
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: still love South Fernando's going forward. This is puts a
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: damper on at least a lot of my prospects of
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: really hoping that he made the debut late in the season,
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: kind of like a Jacob Mizerowski type thing and really
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: make make an impact to the team and create keeper
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: discussions all over the fantasy outlook and things like that.
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: But he's done for the season in my opinion.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think I agree too. All Right, Well,
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: let's talk catchers because we had quite the rash of
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: catcher injuries over the past week where I think anybody
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: in any league was probably scrambling, especially if you've got
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: multiple leagues and you had to hit one of these
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: land mines in terms of the injuries that hit the
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: catcher field. So let's start with the worst first, Shy
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: leng Lear's going down with that torn meniscus, had surgery,
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: is out for the rest of the season. Honestly, we're
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: you drafted, shay Linglears. You already got your money back,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: So everything from here on out is just straight gravy
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: on top two sixty three average, three thirty two OBP
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: four ninety seven slugs. So it's a little bit lower
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: than it was last year, but I still pop twenty
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: three homers gave you mid fifties runs in RBI in
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: four hundred and sixteen plate appearances. You've also got the
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: loss of Samuel Bissio this past week hit the il
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: with a right shoulder string that he's been battling. Now
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: it has been a bit more of like a muted
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: season four by SiO, but he's also I think he's
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: a streaky dude. We're still probably getting a beat on
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: him in total, but does seem like he would go
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: through bouts of getting red hot and then cool back off. Honestly,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: part of it is probably a little bit because of
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: his shoulder, because I think it had been nagging him
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: for a little bit. Two forty one, three h five,
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: four fifty slash line for him, but sixteen homers, so
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: far this he'son only twenty one. That's crazy. He still
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: looking at or maybe you were affected by Kyle Teal
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: going down. Looks like he's got a high ankle sprain.
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: They're talking like eight to twelve weeks. So probably the
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: restless season here on Kyle Teal gonna be a great
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: buying opportunity, I think because the injuries that he's dealt with,
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they're really gonna affect his long
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: term outlook, but certainly when he gets back and going
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: for the White Sox next year, is going to be
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: a great bat overall from the catching position. Obviously, with
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: all three of these you can kind of taper it
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: based on the information. I think you're not cutting the
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: SiO unless you're really running out of Iyel spots Wherever
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: you had him and you were using him. He's going
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: to be useful when he comes back. Laying the leers
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: you can, you can probably cut if it's a redraft league.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Same with Teal. My question here is what are you
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: doing to make up for this? Because I mean, if
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: you're searching that wire for any catchers, it's getting pretty sparse.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: I will say all throughout, my favorite name that's cropped
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: up because of this, it's Jonaheim. Jonaheim's already been hitting
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: cover off the ball in Sacramento, and it's in Sacramento,
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: and was getting dh in first space time, gonna get
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: even more playing time of che Langleiers down. So I
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: think he's probably my number one target for a Cutcher
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: replacement out there. But anybody else that you might be
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: looking at, and.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, for me, it's Jonahim as well. Like I was,
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: I was looking at all three teams here, like who's
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: who's the kind of guys that are next in the line,
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: And like chub Wick Trump is not truly too enticing
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: here or any anybody that on. Basically, the Chicago White
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: sucks from a Drew Romo perspective or a Guraquero's perspective,
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: but Himes looks good. He's strong. I mean, he's never
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: gonna hit for average, but he's gonna give you some
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: strong power numbers. I actually was sneakily looking at Augustin
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: Ramiroz to see like he's been like killing it in
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: the minors. He's dealing basically crazy. But then I looked
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: at his defensive stats and they're like worse than they
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: were in the majors and so like that guy's not
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: getting called up anytime soon for the Marlin, So I
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: think it's pretty thin. I think that's why where we're
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: going is Jonah him. He should be available pretty much everywhere,
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: and now he should be pretty much playing full time.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: So I think it's a pretty easy plug and play,
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: especially for a team playing a pretty nice ballpark.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean I think in Miami it might
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: be another great catcher to pursue if he's not scooped
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: up already. Joe mack has really settled in. I mean,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: nothing special. It's like a two thirty two forty bat
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: with what would paste to like twenty five homers in
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: a season. But I mean, beggars can't be choosers this
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: late when it comes to catchers in the waiver wire.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: So yeah, Mackheim, pursue them if they're available for you. Okay,
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: let's talk a guy who I can't believe it's this
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: far up the list in terms of the injuries and
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: importance that has gone down. And this one hurt because
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: I had him in quite a few places and he's
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: been performing everywhere I had him. Let's talk Casey Schmidt
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: of the San Francisco Giants, because we haven't really much
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: this season. He just cracked your top one hundred this
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: past weekend. Top. Yeah, you finally got him up there.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: I mean I could and like I could see in
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: terms of there was a lot of track record behind
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: Schmidt that did not at all indicate what was going
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: to come this season. It is probably a season ender,
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: I would imagine, because it does sound like he's having surgery.
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: They're saying maybe like a six to ish week timeline.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: I don't know if the Giants will really want to
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: rush it, especially considering this pile of gold, the slump
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: of gold they've uncovered with Casey Schmidt now where I mean,
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: he could play all over the place, and he's been
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: hitting like an elite bat for the entire season. Four
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: hundred and nine played appearances, twenty one bombs in that
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: crappy park, for home runs, nine stolen bases, a two
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: seventy one, three h one four eighty three slash line. Yes,
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: that was only a thirty hurt. The thirty point difference
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: between the average and the opp That's maybe the one
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: flaw is Schmidt does not walk. He hacks at everything
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: he's up there to hit. He did not come to
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: look at pitches. So what is going on with this
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: profile is what has changed? And do you believe it?
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean if I just make it pretty uchtur
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: and simple, it's over aggression and that's what this profile is.
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: And that can work when you're making strong contact and
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: solid contact, and so his barrel rates up when he's
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: his contact rate is up when he's chasing, or even
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: when it's in the zone. The problem is he chases
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: a lot, He swings the first pitch a lot, he
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: swings in a lot in general, and that's it's it's
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: a very dicey profile. Even if you make good contact.
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: This is the kind of profile that can get exploited
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: pretty easy. And that's that's what's taking me a long
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: time to kind of like give it a shot, because
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: it is easier to exploit the guy that really just
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: doesn't have the patients around the plate. And basically what
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: people are doing or giving them a chance to hit,
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: they give them things that are close enough to make
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: make it happen. I don't know if that's maybe he's
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: the one guy that's like taking advantage like the ABS
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: stuff like that, where you know, he's going up there
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: hacking people can't get him to chase enough outside the
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: zone by just throwing junk up there. I don't know,
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: but that's I mean, overall, making good barrel contact, hitting
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: hard hit norere. They're not, but when you have a
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: middling bat speed, he's fifty six percentile first percentile walk rate,
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: those in a full poll profile. Those are the things
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: that got me a little little antsy on him. Why
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: I have not moved him up faster. I think he's
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: still going to be valuable, but I see this more
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: as like a two point fifty hitter twenty home run
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: kind of cap with a low OBP, and I think
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: from a you know, overall draft perspect there's enough guys
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: that can provide that that I'm just not jumping on him.
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: So I do think he's out the rest of the year.
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: I think he'll be valuable next year. But it's kind
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: of that filling out your roster and not the guy
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: that you want to immediately plug in to be your starter.
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: That's kind of my feeling on him.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think part of it is it's a very
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: slight tick, but he went from I mean, he wasn't
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: qualified in bat speed last year, but seventy one point
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: seven percent and now it's seventy two or not percent,
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: but miles power seventy two point five miles power and
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: bumping him up a few percentiles. But I think that's
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: about the range. It feels like around seventy two where
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: things really start going well. If you're on one side
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: of seventy two versus the other. It reminds me I
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: am a nerd. I also do bowling. I have a
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: Beer League bowling a team that I'm on during the winter,
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: and this also happens, like when you go from fourteen
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: to fifteen pounds on your ball that like there's just
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: something about I'm sure it's actually calculable. I'm just not
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: a physics dude, but there's something with the force equals
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: mass times acceleration where once you kind of like start
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: going past a point, it becomes a little bit more parabolic.
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: Is that the word I'm looking for, But like it
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: shoots up faster than you would think. And I think
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: that's what's happening with Schmid's profile a little bit this
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: year is that he added a tick of bat speed,
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: but it was right at the right level where you
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: needed to be an impact hitter. And I think you
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: see this a little bit in Curtis Mead as well.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: But Mead was also swinging it pretty hard last year,
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: and there were more like batting stance changes and stuff
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: that were behind it. Schmidt, it's more of like a
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, maybe there was a little bit of a
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: batting stance and approach change too, but it's certainly a
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: little bit more I think of this little tick of
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: bat speed. So yeah, it could fall apart fast because
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: of the aggreshing you're talking about, but he should still
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: have some decent qualification on the infield next year. And
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: even so, like he's fine as your third fourth outfielder,
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: you know, a little bit of like and almost an
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: adult Garcia mode, like prime Adulas Garcia.
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: It's interesting the quality contact comparables on Baseball Savant and
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: like they feel right. Like sometimes you're like, I don't
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: buy this, Like these guys feel right. It's like Colt Keith,
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: Andrew Vaughn, Ezekiel Tovar, Like it's those guys that like
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: just continue to border on yes value, but not quite enough.
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: Like it's like a little injury, a little thing. But
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: then they if they figure it out, they have a
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: great season, like an Andrew Vaughn or Schmid Colt Keith.
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: You think he's gonna like you just think he's right there,
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: and then he just never fully does it like he's
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: to your point. It's like right on this razor's edge
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: of being useful, good something you want to plug in
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: every day, versus a few path weeks of dropping him
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: like he's he's that kind of guy for me.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think I agree. Okay, let's move on
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: to our next injury. We are talking Cody Bellinger, the
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: outfielder for the New York Inky. He's the All Star
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: Game MVP with the RBI single that he knocked in,
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: and he's hitting the IL with a Grade two left
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: hamstring strain out roughly four to six weeks. This certainly
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: comes at a terrible time for the Yankees because their
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: neck and neck with the Rays for that division. I mean,
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: I don't think the Yankees are worried about not making
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, but certainly they would rather have that buy
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: that comes with winning the Al East. And one thing
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: to call out first, I mean, the Yankees lineup without
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: Stanton Bellinger and Judge honestly kind of streamable against, especially
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: when they're on the road. At home, it's a little
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: bit more questionable, but just because you're talking about the
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: short dimensions of Yankee Field or Yankee Stadium. But on
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: the road, I think they're much more streambul against unless
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: you're Davis Martin tonight, who's getting just shelled, including by
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: Bellinger's replacement Spencer Jones, who should get full run in
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: Bellinger instead, you know, a strong side platun ish, I
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: would say, because I think they're gonna give him a
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: little bit of run against lefties because probably they have to,
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: like they've got to make good use of that roster spot.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: And two, I think they want to do it because
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: this is a situation where you know, it's not when Jones,
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: like when Jones came up earlier in the season, where
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: there was an element of, hey, you have to produce
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: to stay unless he's like striking out eighty percent of
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: the time, I think he's probably playing and staying in
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: this lineup spot for Bellinger. Well, i'll pack at three
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: run Homer tonight as we're speaking.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the funny thing is of any guy that actually
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: might pull off at eighty percent strikeout right, Spencer Jones
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: might be the guy, but yeah, I'm kind of with
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: you here, like that, Spencer Jones, Jesson Demingez, those guys
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: are guys that actually I'd like to see get a
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: full run for a little bit to see what happens,
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: because they've just there's so much potential but just never
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: comes to fruition. Bellinger like, it's a big loss, big
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: loss for fantasy teams. He doesn't putting up amazing numbers,
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: but he's just putting solid all around production up in
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: a good lineup, and there's nothing, nothing wrong with that.
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: So I think this is a tough one where I
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: struggle to see if he's truly back for much more
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: of the season because this is a four to six
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: week kind of kind of view here, and if the
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: Yankees are really, you know, locking into that playoff spot,
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: I think they're not gonna want to rush things because
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: they want Judge and Bellinger and Stanton and everybody back healthy.
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: Because that lineup with those three is completely different than
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: like Jose Cabiero and Spencer Jones, like big old difference here,
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: and so I think that they're going to try to
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: make sure that he's healthy, especially coming back from a
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: hammy issue, like that's ripe for reinjury if you come
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: back too early, and that those are the easy ones.
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: I've done it before myself, where I've like, you think
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: you're you're back, you think you're back, you can crew
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: it through it, and then it just takes one bad
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: step and you are out for another two months. And like,
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: I think the he's are smart enough that they're not
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: gonna rush him. So I don't want to say drop
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: Cody Bellinger, but I could, I could see the argument
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: for it.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's been pretty mid from Bellinger, you know,
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: you have it's backed back up in terms of like
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: the power has fallen apart, the ISOs dropped off, the power,
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: the home runs, i'ven't been there. Obviously, he's gonna miss
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: the hottest stretch of the season in New York, which
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: probably would have boosted that a little bit. But any
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: any questions with Bellinger going into next year now too, I.
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: Don't know how to frame this not more than usual
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: for I mean Cody Bellinger, for is, outside of like
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: one year, like has always had these questions of like
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: which guy's gonna show up? He's gonna give you enough
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: counting stats he's gonna give you. He's gonna fill the
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: statue across the board, but you don't know if you're
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: gonna get a fifteen to fifteen guy or a thirty
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: thirty guy, And you don't know if he's gonna hit
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: two twenty or two ninety. And that's just who Bellinger is,
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: And once you're used to that roller coaster, then you're
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: kind of happy with it. But that's also the reason
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: I rarely ever own Cody Bellinger, just because somebody's always
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: willing to pay for that upside and market value is
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: generally blow what you see at draft tables for a
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: guy like Bellinger. So probably the same questions going to
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: next year that I have for this year in prior
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: years on Bellinger.
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: Okay, Well, next injury we have is for Josh Young
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: going down with a calf strain of the Texas Rangers.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: This is when I'll admit I was wrong Onne, but
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: it's also I don't know if it was just like
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: it does feel like maybe this was an extended four
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: hundred played appearance hot stretch for Josh Young. It's two
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: ninety four three sixty one four one career best one
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: twenty eight WRC plus and the nine homers over ninety
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: two games. But this is also there was regression certainly
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: where he did cut the walk or cut the k rate,
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: increase the walk rate. But the babbit was three forty three.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: The ex wOBA is just about Lee gaverage, and so
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: there's a lot that I think was gonna start kind
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: of You see it, especially in the profile on Savant
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: when you see this where if the bat speed's kind
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: of middling, and we're talking seventy and a half mile
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: pern hour bat speed for Josh Young and the squared
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: up is off the charts, That's where I'm a little
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: bit like m I'm not totally into the profile because
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: that does scream a little bit more of like a
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: hot streak, especially when you're looking at a player who
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: maybe hasn't traditionally had a great squared uprate, you know,
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: and isn't somebody that is notoriously known for that. You know,
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: this isn't Want Soto, this isn't Aaron Judge. Also, look
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: at the spray chart. Most of his home runs are
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: going to right field, so he's pushing stuff away. It's
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: a little bit of sometimes when Andrew Vaughn's running hot
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: it looks like this too, White Sox and Drew Vaughn
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: looked like this a lot more like the Brewers transformed
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: him to get him to the pole side. More So,
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: I'm just kind of throwing that out there because something
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: can consider for dynasty keeper situations where it may look
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: like Josh Young has really taken off here. But I
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: think it's a lot of like this is who he is,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: and so I would lean a little bit more towards
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: like his career slash line at this point. You know,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: you're looking at seventeen hundred player appearances two sixty four,
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: three thirteen, four point thirty. That feels better for me
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: in terms of a Josh Young slash lining expect going forward.
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: Still pretty solid, just below a seven to fifty ops there,
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: but maybe more of a corner infield guy than a
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: third base guy. So are you there with me and
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: Josh Young or do you think there is more in
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: the profile here? Will be twenty nine next year.
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm with you. It feels a little
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: bit like Kesehy Schmidt conversation we just had as far
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: as again on that razor's edge, the thing you called
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: out the bat speed and the squared up. Those are
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: two variables that you look at, and they it's a
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: tale of two stories. If you've got strong bat speed
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: and you square the ball up like the rest of
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: the profile can come together real quickly and look really
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: really strong. If you have low bat speed in a
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: high squared up profile, a lot of times that's the
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: speedster with a spray profile to roll out a different
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: kind of game. But if you have to look at
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: the kind of pedigree here, that's not Josh Young. Josh
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: Young is not the speedster sprint speed. We haven't played
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: the game in a while with you know Josh Young's
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: sprint speed off the top of your head without looking
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: at it.
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: I didn't actually look at it when I was on
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: the slot page. So you can quis me, you can
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: Chris me, I haven't looked, I swear.
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: So let's where to go. We both know Josh Young
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: is probably not the fastest guy in the world. So
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: we're going to go over under fortieth percentile sprint speed fortieth.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go a little bit over, just a
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: little bit like forty five.
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we're gonna go way under sixteenth sixteenth percentile. And
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: so when you when you talk Yeah, when you when
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: you talk about that kind of spray hitter, the guy
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: that's trying to get on base by just making things
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: happen using the sprint speed getting on like, that's not
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: his profile. So when I see the guy with lower
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: bat speed but great squared up, that is a little
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: bit concerning because that means the profile that we're from
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: a power perspective we're getting is probably gonna be a
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: little bit in question because that's what his game ultimately is.
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: And so I think that your point, like what we've
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: seen in the past is probably closer to what he
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: will be in the future. His expected home runs is
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: actually six point six compared to his actual nine that
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: he has, and so I think things have come together
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: better than he has. And I think you and I
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: have both actually kind of been out on him, even
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: though I love his rookie season. I just I don't
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: see enough recovery here in some of those other areas
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: that we really need to see for me to kind
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: of push him into like sleeper or breakout or something
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: for next year. I think this is probably his peak,
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: and it's a not terribly useful peak. Like I said,
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: it's more of a at this point, it's a quarter
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: in field with a better batting average and low power,
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: and that's just not who we signed up for with
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: this guy.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that's all very fair. So maybe
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: something keep in mind if you roster Young in a
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: dynasty keeper situation, maybe we're shopping him at this point
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: if you're going for a title and have somebody who
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: might be interested in him. Okay, we've got another injury
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: to discuss here. Addison Barger of the Toronto Blue Jays
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: underwent elbow surgery. It's actually the brace internal brace surgery
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: on his right arm and complete loss season. Only got
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: into nine games, twenty eight played appearances, and they were
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: not great. He looked pretty pretty rough during those plate appearances. Yes, exactly.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: So it's a total loss lost season here for Asen Barger,
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: who will be turning twenty seven in the off season.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: And you know, I will say, like we've both been
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: into Barger, but this worries me a little bit because
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: like it starts getting into you. Look at the thing
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: that really stands out on his avant page is that
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: bat speed, Like it's always been there and it's always
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: caused a lot with him in his game and now
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: it's kind of like resulted in some injuries, you know
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: what I mean. Like he was always a little bit
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: iffy with like obliques that felt like too and just
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: like all sorts of torque related muscles in his body
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: to where like it starts making me worry a little bit,
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: like the Tristan Cassus, And I think this is happening.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: This concern is coming up more and more for me nowadays,
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: as a lot of these hitters are trying to max
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: out their bat speed and really pushing their trunk to
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: the limits that I can go. And I think there's
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: a lot of maxims in there out there in the
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: league in terms of swing harder, swing as hard as
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: you can every time, a lot the way that we've
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: seen on the picture side, and I'm a little bit
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: worried that some bodies might not be able to withstand
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: that type of rigor over an entire season, especially when
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: you're talking about asking Barger. You know, he's shorter than
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: six week tall, not exactly the biggest frame, and it's
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: maximizing every ounce of it that he can to be
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: able to sock the ball hard. So maybe not as
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: much of a conversation about Barger. But what's your take there?
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: Is that something that you worry about on anyone's profiles nowadays,
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: or is it something where you're like, hey, you know what,
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: guys who get hurt will get hurt. It's always happened,
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: and this is just kind of another way that manifests.
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm probably lean a little bit more to guys
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: get hurt and the just things happen, and I know
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: we can always get into the connect chain and all
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: what happens. Really, what I look at is this guy's
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: the kind of profile that is just very hot and cold. Like,
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: this is a profile I think we've seen with a
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: lot of guys which strong bat speed, good hard hit rates,
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: good x of velocities, but really really poor uh plate discipline.
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: This is the Brett Rooker profile. This is to a degree,
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: the Mark Viento's profile. It's it's those kind of guys
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: that can really break out and do something special, but
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: it can catch up to them real fast too, and
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: so they're gonna be really streaky. They're gonna they're gonna
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: cause you some pain. And it can work. It can
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: like it can work, It could absolutely work. But if
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: the league makes an adjustment, to you, you have to
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: adjust back and if you can't do that, then you're
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: you're you're in trouble. So uh, that's really I think
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: where where we're at with Barger is that I I
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: I really did like it, But the more I kind
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: of look at that profile, I've been trying to shade
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: away more and more from those guys that have high
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: strikeouts and low walk rates. Uh, just because there's too
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: many variables when a when the league adjusts to you,
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: especially the young guys, I will take it with a
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: little bit more of a veteran or somebody who's been
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: around the league and proven that they can use that profile.
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: But I see too many young guys coming in now
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: that have this really aggressive swing path. Uh. They do
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: have the high bat speeds, those kind of things, Uh,
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: and they make a lot of noise and then they
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: go cold for a month, and once that adjustment happens,
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: they they really struggle to adjust backpeaks In the minors
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: that that profile works, huge bat speed, big contact rate,
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: you know, squared up rates. Uh, you know that stuff plays. Uh.
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: You get to the majors and these pitchers are crafty
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: and there there's all that uh statistics and technology playing
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: against you, it's gonna be hard. So that's really what
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: has me a little bit more worried with Barger than
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: the injury. But put them both together, and he's more
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: of a flyer for next year. Uh, maybe a comeback rebound,
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: kind of a sleeper guy, anything I would want to
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: invest in.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: Okay, Yeah, I think that's that's a fair take. And yeah,
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: I think it's something I'm just kind of keeping my
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: eye on going forward as a trend we see in
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: the league. So something to maybe consider when you see
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: other kind of big bat speed guys where the risk
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: maybe you know, if you especially if you have a
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: valuation model that you're using on your own that has
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: like a risk meter, maybe that's something to kind of
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: layer in there, is that there's maybe another risk indicator
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: for bigger bat speeds that just the way that you
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: would I think for pitchers that throw hard. So it's
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: kind of I think it's a similar parallel. All right,
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: one last injury. Let's talk Spencer Steer. We haven't talked
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: about him all season. It's been a sneaky, kind of
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: under the table decent fantasy season. Pretty much the same
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: line that he put up last year is when he
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: was on pace for It's a two thirty eight three
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: nineteen four to twenty one slash line, ninety nine WRC
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: plus sixteen homers, three stolen bases, and three hundred and
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: eighty four plate appearances. Going down with a right wrist
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: injury where it's a it's a string. I don't know
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: if like we're getting just I think it is just
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: we're getting really precise medical information nowadays. I think in
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: the past we would just call this a sprained wrist.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: But if you want the details, essentially one of the
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: tendons in his wrist, like your tendons, have sheaths around them,
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: and it tore the sheath around the tendon and is
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: causing the pain and inflammation. Gonna be in a splint
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: for a couple of weeks and then still has to
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: go through the rehab process. I don't think surgery is
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: out the door here either, so something to consider as well.
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: Either way, probably does And Spencer Steer's season, I would
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: imagine just because of when you're looking at getting that
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: scent on for two weeks, you're in mid August, you
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: do four to six weeks, you're done for the season.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: So you know, and at that point too, minor league
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: season will be shut down, there's not really a place
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: to rehab, and the Reds will be out of it.
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: I think they'll probably want some of your young players
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: to get to run. Although Spencer Steer younger than you
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: would imagine, he's been around forever, doesn't turn twenty nine
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: till December. I'm throwing this out there just because I've
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: been watching him a little bit as like a really
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: cheap back end option where at home he actually paces
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: more for like a twenty five to ten, like two
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: point fifty line at home, and then on the road
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: it's a much more garbage situation, but puts up good
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: eligibilities somebody that I'm kind of starring in drafts going
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: forward because it's a little bit of like a Willy
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: Castro profile, and the Reds play a lot of stretches
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: where it's a week full in Cincinnati, the way the
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: Rockies play a week full in Colorado. So something I
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: just kind of want to throw out there for Spencer
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: Steer back into a draft dart for me, certainly, nothing
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: really much more than that, but an easy way to
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: extract cheap value. What do you think about Spencer Steer.
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: Is there more to it or are you on board
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: or you just totally out because you think that there's
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: no way the Reds continue to give him run.
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think they're going to continue to give
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: him run. Like this is a guy that is kind
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: of in core to their being and he can play
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: all over the field, and so I chink and cheap, yeah,
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: and so like, I don't think see anything wrong. He
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: is the kind of guy that you like to to
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: grab late in the draft because he's he's better than
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: your normal bench guy. But he can also end up
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: playing you know what, four positions or something like that.
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: I don't think you enough run at third bas this
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: year to make that happen. You got four innings at
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: third bas this year, but first second outfield, you know
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: that's just going to come into play. So I do
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: like Steer because he can do that. You also know
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: how to play the matchups. That's pretty clear, right. You
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: just play him a home and you fill him in
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: when somebody else is hurt. He's an easy play. So
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: I like that. I think we also should know at
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: this point this sinsor Steer is who Spinscer Steer is.
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: There's not gonna be like another gear. You're gonna get
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: a low about an average and you get a nice
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: little pop fu stolen basis for fun. I had a
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: lot of strikeouts. That's just what you're going to get.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: Yep. I think I'm there with you. So not somebody's
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: interested in the past, but I think he's opened my
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: eyes a little bit just after rostering up a little
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: bit in an RCL this year. So certainly a versatile,
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: a little player that you can plug and play, especially
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: in daily leagues. Okay, check out that baseball card release
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: calendar that we got down in the show notes. No
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: really substantial updates. Bowman Chrome does have a pre order
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: now that's coming out on August tenth. We are speaking
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: on July twenty ninth here. So it was the release
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: date for Tops, Tribute, Tops, Dynamic Duels, both more high
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: end or ish sets, you know, kind of mid range
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: I would say in terms of like akin to five
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: Star or Inception. And it's also a big weekend for
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: cards in general because the National Card Show going on
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: in Chicago in Rosemont at the Convention Center. I'll be
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: there on Saturday. Actually I'm gonna go on Saturday, So
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: there's gonna be thousands of people there. But if you
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: can spot the one guy in a Cards and Categories
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: red hat and some rat in a RAS ball shirt,
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: that's me. So you'll see one of the cards and
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: Categories hats in the wild that I'm always pimping at
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: the end of the show. So if you are at
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: the National, come say hi to me, and uh yeah,
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to it. It's my first time going.
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: I don't really have a huge objective, but I'm excited
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: to see some cool stuff and if i can find
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: like a cheap T two oh six or a like
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: late eighteen hundredsu in Ginter, just something really cool. I
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: don't have anything that old in my collection. That's what
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be looking for. But mostly I'm gonna be gawking.
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be gawking at all the ridiculous stuff people
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: have and looking at all the millions and millions of
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: dollars of cardboard that are in front of me. So
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to it. With that, we're gonna wrap
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: up the first half of our pod and we'll be
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: back on the flip side to talk about prospect face off.
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: Get ready, everybody, Welcome.
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: Back, everybody. Let's get right into our discussion of prospect
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: face off. So, like I said at the beginning of
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: the podcast, here, what we're trying to aim at is
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: analyzing prospects in the same system that are at the
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: same position as well and kind of have a same
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: or similar profile. Just because I had noticed, especially in
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: this year's draft, I felt like it really stood out
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: that lots of teams were almost starting to just acquire
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: archetypes where I think they've all got such tailored models
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: and stuff that they're all kind of pursuing the same
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: type of player internally, so you get the same profiles
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: on a lot of the same team. And what I
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: think that also creates is position battles going forward for
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: these similar players. And so you know, you can already
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: see examples of this on really high end prospects that
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: are pretty well known in dynasty situations. I alluded to
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: the Giants shortstop situation earlier with Louise Hernandez, Johnny Lovell,
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: and Joe swar Gonzalez. I think you get this to
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: a degree with the Dodgers that you know, with their
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: outfielders host way to Paula Zaire Hope mostly I'm gonna
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: lump them together because especially those two you know very
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: well fit together. And then maybe you also have Mike
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: Saroda and James Tibbs kind of on their own island
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: as well, And so you've got lots of examples of this.
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: I did stray away all the way away from Pittures
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: because you can never have enough pictures. It's not going
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: to be an issue when they're coming through the system,
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: while you know, on the other hand, like pretty soon
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: the Brewers have to figure out what they're gonna do
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: with Cooper Pratt, Jesus made Luis Pana and fitting them
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: around Bryce Terrang and how it's all gonna work. So
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: it's something to consider, I think when you're looking at
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: these prospect profiles, because it's just another element to their
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: overall value that maybe you like this situation they're in
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: right now, the system they're in the ballpark, they might
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: come up it too, But if there's another guy they're
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: jocking for a position, they might not get that chance
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: to stick in the system you might like. And so
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: it's just another kind of thing I think to track
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: on these profiles going forward. We're calling it prospect based
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: off shout out to John Travolta, Nick Cage. It's been
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: forever since I've seen that movie. But I can tell
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: you we are not cutting anybody's faces off today. We're
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: just doing a regular old fantasy baseball analysis. Nothing gory,
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: nothing weird. And let me make sure none of these
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: dudes are injured. Okay, they aren't, so they're not gonna
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: do anything gory brou I mean, is there too am
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: I reading into this too much? Or is it something
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: you do need to think about with these profiles where
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, then you add in the element too of
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: like just the day to day humanness of changing organizations,
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: refinding your locker room if you do get traded, and
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: I feel like it also sends a message to that
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: prospect as well. So is this something that I'm just
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: like over hyping and overanalyzing because we had an extra
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: week in July and needed a podcast topic or is
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: there something legitimate here?
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: Well, maybe you might be over analyzing and just we
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: needed a topic, But I do think there is very
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: clear traits that a lot of teams have where they
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: want to have their archetype. They want to try to
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: broom into their system because they know that they're good
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: at developing a certain type of player. At the same time,
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: you get into this part of the season and you know,
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: these are the guys that come up in trade discussions
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: and you're like, well, you can't fit all of them.
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: At some point, you're going to have to make a
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: choice of who goes where. At the same time, I
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: kind of look at it is like a lot of
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: these guys, they're they're pure athletes. If they're good enough,
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: they're going to find a spot. Like, uh, you know,
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: a lot of these are we're gonna be talking about
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: are just strong, strong defenders. They can play a few
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: different spots. So they might come up as, just to generalize,
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: come up as a short stop, but the guy can
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: play third and second. He's gonna come up as a
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: center fielder, but they can play left and right. Like
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: you get a lot of that with this with you know,
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: these young guys, And so I think that's what teams are, Okay,
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: drafting the bat and the makeup and then they're like,
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: I'll figure out the rest later because it's hard to
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: just rely on guys to pan out. So I think
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: there is something to it, but I don't want to
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: overlean into like, hey, which one guy gets traded another
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: guy straight? I don't. I don't really think teams are
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: thinking that deeply unless we're getting into the upper miners,
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: and then you start to truly get into that block scenario,
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: like maybe maybe with catchers. That might be the one
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: exception where where I'd say that's true is that you
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: can the upper miners and you have a stalwart behind
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: the plate in the major league level, like you're you're
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: trying to get something for that guy while his prospect
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: stock is still up there. But generally, the talent plays.
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: The talent plays. Maybe not in La I guess, but
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: everywhere else talent plays.
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, maybe not for the Dodgers. And I mean,
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: I think the other element here with these players too
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: is like I'm skinning through again, I don't. You know,
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: these aren't like the upper crust guys where like they're
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: always going to get a shot. So that's another consideration.
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: You know, these are guys who are in the mid
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: to back end of top one hundreds, and so the
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: means you're starting to get into territory where it's starting
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: to become you know, less all star players in more
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: kind of everyday regulars. Or platoonish guys, and so you've
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: got a lot of talent here, but it's not that elite,
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: elite talent where you're going to get a shot no
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: matter what's happening with like Eli Willitts, Eli Willets, when
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: he's ready to go, the Nationals are going to let
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: him run and take over wherever they've got the position.
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: As opposed to these guys, I think there's a little
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: bit more question there where you could have a little
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: bit more blockage created, and just another kind of thing
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: to consider when you're looking at these profiles. So let's
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: start with the first one that also kind of like
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: inspired this couple weeks ago when we talked about Nathan
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: Fluelling going into our PC for his performance in the
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: M Will Be Futures game. So we've got face off
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: between Nathan Fluelling and Tatan Gray. Fluelling was a twenty
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: twenty four third round pick out of high school in
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: Canada and he is currently a catcher, but I think
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: he's already at the state where the bat is probably
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: going to outstrip his his catching ability and they're probably
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: gonna want him in the bigs playing a corner or
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: dh and getting that bat in the lineup, because it
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: looks really great at high A this year in eighty
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: three games two point fifty eight three eighty three, four
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: seventy five slash line. That's a one twenty three wr
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: plus seventeen homers and seven stolen bases. Again, that's been
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: as a nineteen year old. There. On the other side,
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: we've got Titan Gray with a he was a high
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: school pick in twenty twenty five, also out of the
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: third round, so they went third round back to beat
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: years ago.
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: It was like within like eight picks of each other.
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he is a switch hitter while Fluelling is left handed,
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: so that's a consideration here too. But already exclusively a
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: cold corner guy and gonna be a bat only coming
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: through the system. But it looks great two ninety one,
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: four h six, four eighty eight over two stops only
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: fifty one games because he has battled an elbow injury
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: where he had some of those loose bodies that everyone
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: was catching. So nothing also like overly concerning, especially when
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: you're talking to first baseman. It's okay. The balls just
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: screams off of his bat in every scouting report that
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: I see, and he is at a one WRC plus
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: one level behind Nathan Fluelling one year younger. What's your
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: choice here in the face off? And why are you
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: picking them?
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this one is a really close one for me.
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: It is ironic how similar to these guys are. Like
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: I said, they were drafted like eight picks apart. Both
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: guys were catchers and are probably gonna be first baseman
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: type of things, and so there's a lot to like here.
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: I think it comes down to who do you think
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: reaches the power ceiling the most, because I think that
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: they're going to be relatively similar all around. I think
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: Gray is maybe a little bit more athletic overall than Fluelling.
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: I think through Fluelling might reach a slightly higher peak
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: from a power perspective. But it's it's very close for
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: me as far as what you think that body is
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: gonna do. I mean, we're talking about guys, you know,
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: Fluelling six to two hundred pounds, Grays six four two
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: twenty both strong. I think Gray might have a little
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: more raw power. I'm just I'm not as certain that
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: he's going to get to it in games. Fluelling has
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: a little bit more patience at the plate and seems
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: to be a little more selective at this point. Again,
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: we're we're really talking to young eighteen nineteen year olds here,
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: so it's kind of kind of hard to play in that.
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: But you know, I'm if I'm forced to pick one
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: right now, I think I'm probably gonna go with Tait
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: and Gray. But I mean it's by it's like a
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: fifty five forty five split for me. They are so close.
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: I almost went with Fluelling on this because I think
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: he's had a bigger rise this season, but I think
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: Gray has seems to have a little bit more mature
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: played approach, just barely. And like I said, the raw power,
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: I think he hasn't tapped into it like the way
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: Fluelling has, but I think he has a little bit
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: stronger raw power, a little better build for that. So
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: if they both end up in that first base position,
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: I think Gray has that little better chance of being
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: the middle of the order type of type of bat.
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: But both of them pretty gush darn close for me
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: at this point.
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, i think I'm right there with you in
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: terms of I prefer Gray, but it's not by much.
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: And I think the reason for me is I think
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: the ceiling for Gray is a little bit higher because
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: I think the power is pretty upper tier. Like it's
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: about as close to eight power as you're probably gonna
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: find in the in the miners right now, next to
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: Lasara Montes. But like Gray's got a way better played
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: approach than Lasara Montes and does not have, per the
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: scouting reports, the same holes that Montes does in his swing,
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: So that gives you a lot more faith in Gray
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: being able to really handle big league pitching and work
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: his way through the miners. I will say I think
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: flu Willing's probably got the higher floor though, just because
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: of the athleticism to be able to catch and to
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: still have that avenue maybe open to him for another season.
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: You know, if he does turn her corner in the
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: off season and shows up in the spring next year
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: and is a markedly better catcher, then if that opens
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: up for him, certainly, I think that gives him a
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: huge boost, because then you're starting to talk like maybe
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: the best minor league catching prospect just because the bad
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: is so great when you combine it, he'll be right
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: there with like Alfredo Duno and yeah, Roanyelle Rodriguez too,
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: So that's the type of like bat we're looking at
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: with fluelling. It obviously like once you put that at
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: first base, it becomes a different conversation for fantasy than
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: that catcher. So, yep, I think I'm with you. I'm
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: I'm going gray in this face off over fluelling. Next one,
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: we're sticking the Al East. We're going with the Toronto
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: Blue Jays. We've got two shortstops here. So we got
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: Argin Namala and Jojo Parker. These dudes were both first
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: round picks, not back to back years. Namala went in
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, Parker in twenty twenty five. Namala was
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: a high schooler when he was drafted, and so was Parker,
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: so you kind of got similar profiles there. Namala is
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: a right handed hitter, Parker is a left handed hitter.
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: And when you're also looking at the overall stats this year,
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: so Namala has done this across three levels. He did
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: go back to the Complex for a little bit because
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: they've been tweaking his swing like every year to get
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: him right in terms of he seems to fall apart
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: the past couple of years, but the Complex fixes him
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: and he comes right back fine. It's been a two
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: sixty four three sixty six four sixty two slash line
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: one nineteen WRC plus with eight homers across fifty eight
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: games in High A, Low A, Double A, A little
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: bit complex ball. The thing that will really stand out here,
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: remember this twenty two point eight percent strikeout rate, twelve
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: point six percent walk rate. Jojo Parker, first year in
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: the minors, nineteen year old at Low A, it's been
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: a two thirty six three seventy six four twelve slash
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: nine A one to thirteen WRC plus right there, you're
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: talking six ticks of WRC plus. He has nine homers,
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: more stone bases twenty one but certainly easier competition. Sixteen
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: point three percent walk rate, twenty four point three percent
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: walk rate. So the walk rates and k rates or
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: the second one, the twenty four point three was a
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: k rate there on Parker, I think I said walk rate,
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: but you're looking at walk rates and k rates that
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: are pretty similar. Both of them. Have a little bit
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: of question about short stuff, you know what I mean. Namala,
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: it's partly because Namal's got a cannon for an arm
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: that he might just make more sense at third. And
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: then for Parker, it's just he's got a little bit
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: of a chunky body. I would say where I think
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: he probably is going to end up in second base
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: third base conversation, but they're going to try him at
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: short as long as they can. Two pretty similar players
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: here coming through the Blue Jay system. Which way do
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: you lean?
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: Hey, I'm gonna give you credit. You did a good
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: job picking guys that are pretty cush darting similar and
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: maybe that's the reason we're having this this podcast conversation
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: just took me this long as the podcast figured out.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: But when I look at these guys, I both of
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: them have really high upside. Both of them are very
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: athletic players. I think Parker's got a little bit more speed.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: I think uh Namala might have a little bit of
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: a pickup on the hit tool just slightly. But I
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: think what I look at for these two is I
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: think Parker's got a little bit better floor. I think
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: all around game, I think he's going to grow into
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: a little the power. The power might be similar between
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: the two guys. Parker might grow into slightly more. I
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: think the speed's gonna kind of separate, and he's already
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: kind of showing that he's only quite quite a few bases.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: He's to on for twenty five and eighty games at
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: single A. It's single A, so like put you know,
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: put a little damper on that. But I think that
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: overall profile has a little bit better flow and has
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: a chance to play. I think Damala has maybe a
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: wider range of outcomes that we could see him, you know,
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: really mature and become something special. That's the bigger question
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: for him. But when I look at you know, one
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: of the things I think is as a tiebreaker is
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: like body type Jojo Parker six to two hundred, Namala
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: at least what they're listed is six foot one ninety.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: That's that's not the biggest guy, and so it's not
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: like he's going to grow into a ton more power.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: And so I do question, uh, for Namala if those
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: counting stats are gonna kind of come around, even if
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: he does end up having a slightly better hit tool.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: Both guys young for their levels, so it's it's you know,
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: they're being really challenged. But I mean, I'm given Parker
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: the edge. I said, I went fifty five to forty
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: five in the race system. I'm gonna go like sixty
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: to forty h here with Parker, it's still pretty close.
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: Well, this might end up being a little bit boring
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: that we might just end up like agreeing, although down
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: because I think everything that you said is the reason
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: I've also got Parker a little bit over Namala in
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: terms of the left handed bat too, just helps. It's
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: another leg up in terms of if you're facing right
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: handed pitching more often, you want the left handed bat
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: better shot at a higher batting average, and just more
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: power and just a little bit easier than trying to
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: hit right on right constantly. Overall, I think that Nomala
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: might end up being the better player because the glove
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: is slick like the.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: Glove yeah, is like real world player.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: Yep, Yeah, the glove on Nomala could like start bordering
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: on like Carlos Korea if he puts it together, you
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: know what I mean. But also kind of a similar profile,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: lots more of like contact and power at the plate too,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: with very few stolen bases, where I think Jojo Parker
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: can be a lot more rounded, holistic five y five
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: roto category like just offering it up across the boards.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm with you right here. Parker's winning the
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: face off twoelve sweep once again. Okay, we're gonna go
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: to Atlanta. We've got two here with Eric Hartman and
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: aj Grossia. Eric Hartman was drafted in twenty twenty four
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: in the twentieth round out of high school, but was
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: certainly given a little bit of a bonus to be
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: able to buy him out of a college commitment has
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: broken out this year. Aj Grossia was just drafted out
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: of Virginia a few weeks ago by the Braves with
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: the number nine overall pick. And we're looking right here,
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: I think at two corner outfielders in the future for
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: the Braves. Hartman is left handed and so is Grossia,
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: so we don't even have that distinguishment here. Let's see
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: in terms of their future hit grades and power grades
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: on fangrafts, it does look like we've got a little
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: bit more on Grossia's page, But the current does it
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: favors him a little bit? I will say the the
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: distinguishing factor, Hartman certainly runs a lot more. But if
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: we'd had this discussion last year, it would have not
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: even been a face off, I think because Hartman was
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: just an all speed guy with forty eight stolen base
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: lacross two levels. The breakout has been real for Hartman
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: this year, twenty two homers to go, thirty six stolen bases,
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: two seventy four, three sixty one five nineteen slash line
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: in high A with a one thirty WRC plus. Grossia
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: is just coming off of a year at Virginia three
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: fifty four forty nine six thirty two, one forty four
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: WRC plus just to be able to write size that
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: with NCAA fourteen homers more walks. Thanks, But it's a
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: little bit hard to compare those numbers compared to what
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: we've done with the past few guys, because you're talking
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: college to minor league stats. But I think you're talking
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: pretty similar profiles here. Hartman is a little bit smaller
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: than Grassia. Grascia is at six three one ninety five
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: listed Hartman's at six, So they're both right there, and
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: they've both got decent fielding grades, but I think neither
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: of them is going to even come close to sniffing
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: center field. So who's your choice here in the face
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: off of Atlanta Braves corner outfielders.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you gave a good rundown here. The few things
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: we'll add is Hartman I think has bulked up during
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: the season, So the metrics a year thrown from a
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: size perspective, I think they would he'll clock in a
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: little bigger next year. He definitely seems like he's bulked up,
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: So give me a six on him if i'm if
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: I'm guessing. The other thing is, even though Grassia was
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: just drafted, Hartman's younger, Hartman just turned twenty years old
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: at the beginning of June, or actually mid June, and
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: so Grassia is actually because he went through some college
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: ball at Virginia a year and a half older, and
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: I feel like he's got a little bit more runway
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: to figure things out. So kind of because of that,
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: Like I'm going with Hartman here, I just I think
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: he's kind of proven it already. You've seen a lot
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: of growth this year and it was a notable change
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: in the profile, like he's lifting the ball more like
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: it goes back to the generation of the launch angle
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: discussions that we had years ago. He feels like he's
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: kind of growing into that power. And I don't know
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: that he's going to be a true I don't think
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: either guy unless Garassia really like pops the power, like
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: really fills out I don't think either guy is like
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: a true middle of the order bat, but I think it's,
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: to your point, a good corner outfielder. And I think
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: Hartman's just gonna fill a little bit more of the
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: stat sheet. And he's just shown me a little bit
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: more being young at the level that he's producing. So
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: I'll give him the edge and I'll give this one
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: a little bit bigger gap for me. I really really
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: do like Hartman.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is another clean sweep. I'm right
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: there with you. I mean this is probably one of
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: the more lobsided ones, honestly, because Hartman the breakout has
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: been very, very next level, and when you add in
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: the speed element, I don't know how well the power
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: will stick. I think that's probably the biggest question as
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: he rises, because the other component here is he did
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: give back a couple ticks of contact to be able
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: to find that speed. I think as he goes up levels,
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: he's gonna have to shade the other way back and
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: give a little bit of the contact back to be
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: able to hang, and that'll decrease the power. But you're
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: still looking at somebody when he gets up kind of
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: a j Pollock, but from the left side, I think,
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: and so you're looking at a lot more stolen bases
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: than power. But well, also probably not the ability to
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: play center field like Pollock, although he has been out
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: there a lot more at high A than I would
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: have anticipated. But so maybe the Braves do give him
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: that chance. But also at the end of the day,
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: like Michael Harris the Second isn't going anywhere. So unless
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: Michael Harris the Second really does start slowing down and
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: dealing with lower body injuries, it's his center field to Rome.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: And so I do not want to give short shrift
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: to Grassia though, because there's a pretty decent chance he
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: becomes the best bat out of this draft class. The
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: one factor that's gonna go against him, I don't think
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of speed in that profile, where it's
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: like Kyle Tucker without the speed it could be, you know,
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: I think that's where you could see the peak the
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: ceiling for and I'm talking like good Kyle Tucker, not
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: this year's Kyle Tucker Grassia. So yeah, I think it
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: is a pretty easy choice for Hartman. But Grassia is
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: certainly knowing to ignore when you're getting into fipds this year. Okay,
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: let's go to Cincinnati. We've got two shortstops here between
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: steel Hall and Justin Lebron. So steel Hall was drafted
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: just last year in the first round out of high school.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: Justin Lebron is coming out of Alabama this year was
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: the eighteenth overall pick, so already off the bat, you
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: got a little bit of an age gap where steel
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: Hall just turned nineteen and Justin Lebron is going to
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: be turning twenty two in November. Lebron, let's get Let's
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: look at those numbers at Alabama. They were pretty solid.
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: Two seventy seven, three eighty six, five thirty four slash line,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: one oh five WRC plus forty two stolen bases. Though
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: in his sixty one games you can also kind of
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: see where like he was facing much stiffer competition in
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: the SEC than Garse than Gracio was in the ACC regularly,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: that like, even though the ACC still has lots of
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: good teams in it, the SEC is like another tier
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: up from the ACC when it comes to pitching, especially,
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: steel Hall has been putting it together over the summer
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: at Complex Ball, so that is another kind of factor
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: here that's pretty low for this guy. I think, although
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: he should be getting a bump up to the next
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: level here pretty as soon as complex ball is wrapping up.
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: But it's been a two eighty eight three eighty seven
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: five eighteen slash line. It's only been a one oh
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: seven WRC plus, which kind of shows you the pitching
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: environment being pretty or the pitching just overall, and complex
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: ball has been awful. So the the stats are pretty boosted.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: Ten homers, twenty four stolen basis in his fifty eight games,
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: twenty four percent strikeout rate. There, you're looking at two
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: dudes who can pick it. They've got great speed as well.
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: So the question here, I think on both is actually
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: the hit tool. Both of them currently have a twenty
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: current rating on their hit tools from Fangrafts. Steel Halls
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: is a forty five future, Lebron's is only a thirty future.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: But all those considerations, who's your pick here between Hall
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: and Lebron.
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you a good job describing it, Like
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: the question is the hit tool and what's going to
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: happen with that? Steel Halls maybe got a little more
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: speed than Lebron, and I think that would probably get
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: some people go, Yeah, that's that's where I want to be,
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: but I just don't know that he leaves a little
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: too much like Billy Hamilton being there in Cincinnati. He's like,
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know if we can get enough power or
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: enough batting averaging on base to take advantage of the speed.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: And so I'm gonna go Justin Lebron here just because
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: I think that he he might be a more of
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: a true athlete project at this point in time. But
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: I think the ceiling is a decent more than steel Hall.
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: I just I think Hall is kind of who he is.
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: He's going to be a speedster. He's gonna pop a
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: few few homers here and there, he's gonna have a
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: low average, and I and hopefully you know it all
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: it all sorts out. I think Lebron has a much
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: more interesting bat, much more wide variation of outcomes. But
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: when I think you're looking at this kind of profile
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: if you want it to really be an impact player,
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: I think Lebron has a much a higher chance of
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: being an impact player, even if steel Hall might have
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: a higher chance actually been a long term major leaguer,
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: which is kind of a weird, weird dynamic. But I'm
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: given going Justin Lebron here again. Very close, very similar profiles,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: but I think a little bit more mature approach from
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: Lebron as he comes through from the college ranks.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'm with you as well, and I
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: think that is going to be one element that you
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: brought up to consider that, you know, if you are
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: in like a really true keep forever dynasty league where
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: it really does behoove you to stash away somebody likes
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: Steel Hall who's at the complex league, and you can
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: wait for two years and see what happens. Maybe it
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: tips the scales a little bit because I will say
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: it's relatively close from an actual profile, but I like
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: the ability for Lebron to probably get to the majors
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: much quicker and establish himself in front of Hall and
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: then create that block maybe for Hall as well as
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: third base and second base should be pretty wide open
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: for the Reds next year going into the season. And
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: I mean maybe there is even a discussion about whether
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: or not they let Elie de Lacruz stick it short stop,
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: But let me check his I haven't checked his defensive runs.
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: I mean they've actually been fine, so maybe not. You've
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: probably still got a couple more years of l at shortstop,
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: but Lebron could easily take over second or third base
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: because I don't think they're going to pick up a
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: u Haannino Suarez's mutual option there. They're probably gonna let
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: him walk. They're pretty cheap in Cincinnati, as we alluded
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: to earlier. So yeah, because of those factors, I'm going
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: with Lebron. But I think this one's probably the closest
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: one for me because when you're talking ceilings, they're pretty similar.
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: I think, like we do need to see Lebron show
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: up and perform. We've seen it from Hall, but it's
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: also been a sub seventy percent contact rate in the
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: Complex League, which I mean it can be a little fluky,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: but that's that's some pretty dangerous territory down there. Okay,
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: next one. We do have six of these, so we're
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: gonna this is our fifth one.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: We're almost there.
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: Yes, we're am. We're not going to go through. If
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: we did all thirty, man, we'd be facing off forever.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: I'm sure there's something.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: We wouldn't agree on all thirty. I'm just curious if
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: we somehow agree like and and for those listening, we
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: do not talk about these things prior to getting on
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: on the air with the podcast. We don't sit here
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: in like debate and whatnot, Like we just run into this.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: You set things up, I react, and we see what happens.
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: And so if we agree, we agree. If we don't,
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: we don't. It's just it's actually kind of surprising with
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: guys this far away from the majors that were actually
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: a line so far, I think I'm setting this up
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: for not being a line on this one. Again, we
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: haven't talked about it, but maybe maybe this is gonna
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: be the one that we're a little different on.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: Okay, because yeah, this is where I think these next
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: two they're starting to get a little bit They're starting
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: to deviate a little bit more because like there's only
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: so many of these like exact same dudes you could find,
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: and so we've got similar situations, I would say, and
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: we'll we'll we'll parse it out, but you're gonna have
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: we're gonna start getting a little bit more into like
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: Red Delicious versus Granny Smith Apples as opposed to Red
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: Delicious versus Bigger Red Delicious.
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know, you get that one fell apart real
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: fast on you.
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: It's close to land in that plane. Okay, let's go
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: to Kansas City because we've got two standout outfielders now
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: in that system that are have popped up. So in
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: one corner, we've got Onebelle or yeah, in Injabelle Gomez.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna or on a Belle Gomez. I'm we're gonna
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: only call him Gomez from here on out. So uh,
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: he has been lighting the Complex League. Well, it's not
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: even Complex League, it's been the DSL on fire this season.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: Was signed as an amateur of Venezuela in January and
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: has been one of the best bats in the DSL
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: this year. Three forty five, four fifty six six twenty
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: seven slash line with six homers and twelve stone bases
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: in thirty four games, so one forty nine WRSC plus.
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: He is a seventeen year old turns eighteen in December.
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: Right right profile, six foot two one seventy five ish,
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: and then on the other side, we've got the first
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: round pick for Kansas City this year, Zion Rose out
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: of Louisville. He is a right right outfielder as well.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: Twenty one years old, turns twenty two next May. Little
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: bit shorter, supposedly six foot one two hundred. I guess
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: the other component here with Annabel Gomez is that he
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: might grow another inch or two. So something to consider
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: because I think that was a part of the reason
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: why Toronto also took Nomala as early as they did.
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: I don't think they've gotten more than another inch of
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: growth of Nomala, but there could be more in Gomez's
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: profile going forward. Rose at Louisville ACC again absolutely lit
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: it up four seventeen four ninety one, six forty six,
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: one forty seven WRSCT plus only six twenty four stolen bases.
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: A little bit more of like a gap to gap
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: doubles line drive guy, but pretty decent frame to be
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: able to add a little bit more power. We'll be
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: We'll just see if the Royals can do that going forward.
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: So here we got two similar ish guys. Gomez is
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: significantly younger, you know, yoking a guy who's three years
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: younger and was just signed recently. Rose has the background
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: of playing three years of college ball. Who you picking
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: in this face off?
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I think for me, I have to look at
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: upside with with with this this battle, and I don't
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: think that's incredibly close between these two. If I'm truly
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: talking upside and that's gonna be Gomez. Gomez is a
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: lanky kid. He's found surprising game power for what he's
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: the lankiness that he is. I do agree he's going
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: to fill out more. He's kind of that fast, twitchy
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: kind of player that you can really kind of dream on,
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: and so I think he's a guy that has a
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: chance to really reach some power potential and really kind
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: of contribute across across the stat sheet. If we're trying
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: to make a Kansas City comp here for maybe like
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: the outcome you're hoping for, it's kind of like a
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: Carlos Beltron type type of profile. That's probably like best
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: case scenario. Maybe you're getting into more of like a
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: Starling Marte type, you know, a little bit further further
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: down with some powers speed, But that that lanky kind
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: of guy that's gonna gonna make an impact. I think
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: he has the highest potential for this to come through.
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: I do like Rose, I think there's a lot of
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: value there. I just don't know that he has quite
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 2: the same overall upside from a power perspective. He probably
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: has it. On the speed side of things, He's gonna
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: be a mature, more mature. Again, he spent three years
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: with with Louisville playing, so I think, you know, he's
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: probably he's obviously going to see the majors first. He's
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 2: gonna get the chance to, uh, to prove himself. He's
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: probably got the better floor. But I I just look
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: at these two type of guys and say, you know,
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: Rose might just be a slightly above average across the
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: board kind of guy, whereas I think Gomez could be
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: average in a few spots but really really strong from
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: a specifically from the power perspective, and the speed is
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 2: still gonna be intriguing to boot, maybe just not quite
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: as strong as Rose.
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you, and this one's not particularly close
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: for me either. That like, this was a little bit
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: of like a way to shoehorn in a discussion about
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: Gomez because this is actually, I'll let you in on it,
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: this is the next guy that if I get to
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: auction and stash away a dude and not Anu, this
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: is the next one. I think this is more Carlos
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: BELTRONI I think this is like pretty special that like
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: when you put together what he's done in the DSL
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: at the age that he's done I think that the
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: Royals have really found a gem here in Gomez where
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: I think I think next year he's probably gonna really
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: tear through the miners pretty quickly, where it reminds me
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: a little bit of like it's right handed like Jose
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: Depaula for me in terms of what I see across
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: the board, where he's flashing more speed, but I think
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: the speed will even out because the bat is so
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: good and I think the steals that he's picking up
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: it's a combination of it being the DSL and the
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: pitching not being great and the catching not being great
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: and finding his opportunities, but the bat is legit out
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: of Gomez, and so I think if you're in dynasty
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: keeper situations and he's available and you're rebuilding, certainly put
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: him on your auditu roster, I think now before he
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: becomes hot commodity going into next year as well as
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: he should be on the board for fypds. I mean
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: most fypds, I would say do, but you always have
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: the odd one where they treat Jan's twenty or the
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: Jan period inner national signings a little bit differently. I
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: think Gomez in I've been trying to debate this because
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: I'm not actually in like a situation where I've got
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: a FYPD, but if like I was, I mean, I
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: think Hernandez is probably number one for me, but Gomez
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: is right there with Chilowski and Emerson too, So like
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: that's how much I believe in it that, like I think,
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: especially when I'm in like thinking about those even though
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: like I said, I'm not in a league like that,
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: but I think I would like to shade for trying
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: to find a little bit more upside in that mix.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: And so Chilowski and Emerson are are cool, but I
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: don't know if they've got quite the ceiling that I
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: would want. And Hernandez and Gomez do, I think so
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: somebody to I think star out there is Annabel Gomez
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: from the Royals and another Quean sweep. Okay, we got
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: to our last one, Miami Marlin shortstop, and we're going
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: with another draft D from this year. I don't have
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: stats to read off because he was a high school
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: pick number five overall, we're talking Jacob Lombards. I'll just
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: rattle off some of his pipeline scouting grades and his
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: age and kind of profile. So he was out of
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: a Florida High School was eighteen turns nineteen in September,
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: so a tick older, but not like one of those
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: I'm always wary of those dudes that come through like
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: nineteen and a half in our first round out high school, Like,
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: oh boy, that's not great. Six foot three, one ninety
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: five shortstop all the way future grades of fifty five
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: hit sixty power, sixty five run, fifty armed, fifty five
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: field sixty overall, pretty solid. Little shortstop was right in
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: the discussion I think for quite a long time with
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: Chilawski and Emerson until kind of the everything really started
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: settling at the end of the draft. So this is
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: not like a situation of the Marlins cheaping out on
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: somebody that they went out and got one of the
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: better prospects that they could at that spot. It's coming
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: on the heels of Iva Arquette, who was their number
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: seven overall pick last year out of Oregon State. Is
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: twenty two turns twenty three in October. Has been at
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: high A and double A this year with a two
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: forty two ninety seven four to sixty two slash line
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: just a ninety four WRC plus, but the power has
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: been pretty solid. Nine homers, twelve stolen bases, the glove
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: is starting to fade a little bit where he might
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: end up being more of a third baseman. But it's
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: a big frame six five, two twenty out of our quet.
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: You've got two short stops here for the Marlins. Which
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: way you going?
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a tough one because specifically to Lombard,
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: there's just not a lot I mean, being at high school,
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: there's just not a lot of information to go on him.
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: But I think that the two ways I'm to look
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: at this is our ket like he went early in
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 2: the draft, but like he seems like he hasn't really
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: found his footing in the minors folly at this point.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: The batting avergi hasn't picked up there. He seems to
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: be kind of a little bit lighter on the on
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: the hit tool. He is going to be twenty three
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: coming up soon. So the fact that he's not quite
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: getting to some of the hit tools in the game
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: power that I would want to see at that age,
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: at the levels he's at, I'm a little I've kind
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: of soured a little on our cuts overall game. That said, Lombard,
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: this this is an incredibly athletic pick like he's one
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: of those This is a not fair comparison, but but
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: bear with me, is a kind of James Wood like
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: talent athleticism type type of pick. He he has incredible speed,
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: great defense, the profile from off from his perspective, he
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: has crazy, crazy raw power. Some of it does show
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: open games. The problem is he's a strikeout maven like.
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: He is a swing miss type of guy, and he's
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: you're you're dreaming on him with his top ten type
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: type pick that he could become something incredible, or he
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: could be kind of like a number of prospects we've
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: seen drafted that just can't figure out how to actually
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 2: access that hit tool and so there can be incredibly exciting,
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: but they're not gonna make it through. So for me,
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: our kent like he hasn't shown enough that he's something.
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 2: I'm like, yes, I'm gonna invest in more than like
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 2: a utility player. And I think that's maybe his ceiling
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: right now. And maybe that's not fair to a guy
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: that was just a a top ten pick not too
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: long ago. But I think Lombard has some incredible tools
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 2: and if he can figure a few things out in
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 2: pro ball and not get exploited by pitchers, and he
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 2: can mature again be in a high school bat, absolutely can.
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: There's a lot more upside there, and again with these two,
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: I'm looking upside. So give me Lombard, but we have
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 2: very little to go on of a high school bat.
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: That that just I believe he was just activated for
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: the Marlins today actually if I was looking at the
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: transaction reports the PCL. So we'll see, maybe we'll get
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: stats tomorrow.
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And so we've also got I should have thrown
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: it out there that Lombard is also George Lombard's son,
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: brother of George Lombard Junior. So that's another factor here too,
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: which I think actually is the the factor that makes
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: me pick him too. So we got a clean six
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: ozero sweep on the face offs. But I think that
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: that just like bloodline of coming through and having the
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: father that was in baseball and he's still involved in baseball,
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: having the brother that was there too, to be able
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: to learn those ropes where I think that might be
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit of like what's tripping up our caut
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: you know, as he goes forward, because there's a lot
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: of latent power in that profile, and it's just kind
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: of not quite translating folly. I mean, if anything, you
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: almost want to see our cat. The contact rate is
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: too high, like he's got to like let a few
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: more pitches go by, which Alsos kind of tells me
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: too that maybe he's pressing a little bit to try
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: to work his way through and prove that he was
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: a top ten pick is as opposed to just like
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: letting it ride. I think he's got the body to
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: do it and be a solid third baseman, and I
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: think he can be a pretty good contributor for fantasy,
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: where you know you're looking at something like twenty twenty
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: five Homers with like a two seventy average and just
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: pretty good solid third base defense. Lombard I think because
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: it is a little bit of a mystery box, I'll
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: take the mystery box too, because, like the upside, the
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: size is already there too. Another situation where maybe he
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: does add another int or two, but like he's huge.
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know if he sticks at shortstop like he
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: maybe he does move to the outfield, and certainly the
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: error bars are huge because like Lombard could be his
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: brother or better and probably better. It does sound like
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: from a scouting perspective, he's got more power and.
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: Just better better tools.
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, and so there's that. But I also like
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: Drew Jones was not too far behind us, and.
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 2: So yeah, like Elijah Green like guys guys like that,
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: Like that's that that's the risk with this profile the
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: other But on the flip side, you look at our
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: cats like comps. I was looking at prospects of the
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: comps and they were like Adam Fraser, Maurisio Dubon like like, yeah, okay,
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: you're talking to the guy that's like yeah, at times
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: has been useful in a fantasy game, but like never
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: the guy that you like target. It's the kind of
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: guy that you you it's the fallback play and that
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: and that feels like maybe the upside for our cats.
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: So I will to your point, I will take the
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: mystery box on this one and not be too disappointed.
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: If I'm wrong. Yeah, And that's I mean, if you're
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: just like straight comparing them like this, that's I think
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: always going to be the answer. When you're talking Dynasty leaks,
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: it might be a little bit different because I do
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: think that there's still when you kind of like do
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: the beat bop boops in the computer and like put
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: it all out there. Depending on where you're at in
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: your life cycle of your Dynasty, team Arquette might still
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: make more sense for you if you're looking at if
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: you need a shortstop our third baseman, who could be
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: up late twenty twenty seven, early twenty twenty eight. Maybe
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: that is a consideration and you bump them up a
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: little bit more because you who knows how Lombard's going
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 1: to take it could be two years, it could be
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 1: four or five, So something to kind of put together
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: in your consideration and analysis going forward. So there we go,
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: prospect face off, we wrapped it up. It was a
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: clean suite, but I mean, I think a lot of
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: them were closer than you would expect. We just kind
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: of if you've been listening to this pot over the years,
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: you know we think pretty similarly.
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 2: We spent too much time together, I think, is what
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: the analysis at the end of this pot is. But
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 2: if you made it this far, we appreciate you listening along,
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 2: joining us with the clean six sweep on this.
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: All right, brew, Let everybody know where they can find
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: you on socials and read your work.
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 2: Yep, find me in Twitter x whatever you want to
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 2: call it Blue Sky Jaybrewer one seven find me rasball
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: on the weekends doing hitter profiles, top one hundred hitter rankings, coolly,
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 2: Where can folks find you?
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you can find me over at Baseball Perspectives, writing
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: about starting pitching and just other random fantasy baseball topics
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: every once in a while. So lots of stuff going
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: on with the deadline this week. You can find me
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: on Blue Sky at en cool seven spelled cou Ill
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: like my last name. You can also find the podcast
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: on Blue Sky at cards Categories or email the podcast
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: at cards Categories at gmail dot com. You won't get
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: it in time to go to the National this weekend,
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: but if you want all of the hats to be
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: able to match me when you find me this weekend,
• 1:30:42
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• 1:30:45
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• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: rasball dot com for those subscriptions. Still well worth the
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: price to try to rally and put your team together
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: and try to win your fantasy leagues. I will tell
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: you that if you had been using the streaminator, you
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: would have streamed that Kyle Manzardo Grand Slam yesterday, So
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: it's eerily right, especially when it comes to home runs
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: that like, whenever I'm looking for a homer, I go
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: to the streaminator, I searched by home runs and it
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: kicks out a lot of winners more than you would expect.
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: It's kind of funky. And with that, we're going to
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: wrap it up for this week. Appreciate you checking out
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: the podcast. If you haven't done so, rate and review
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: it wherever you're listening to. It just helps us grow
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: the listenership. So we'll be back, same time, same place
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: next week with an extremely long pod to get through
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: all that trade deadline fall out that we know will
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: be there. Thanks everybody for checking us out.