Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / New Year Rally?📈Crypto Market Update

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New Year Rally?📈Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Let's get into the market today. It is going to
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: be a rocky December going into January. Do we get
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: a complete turnaround, We'll dive in deep. I want to
• 0:08
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  Speaker 1: can go out there and trade this volatility that we're
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: seeing in the market overall. And let's start real quick
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: with this X post right here, which is a big one,
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: and that is the US economy added sixty four thousand
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: jobs in November.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: This was above the expectations.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: However, the unemployment rose from two to four point six
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: and the expectations we're holding at four point five. So
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: job scenario is to softening. Something that we've talked about
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: for a while a while on this channel is that
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: this issue is not going.
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: To ease up.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: I feel that this is still going to put some
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: pressure into early next year, and it's going to continue
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: to put a lot of pressure on the FED going forward.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Heather Long was right here talking about this US economy
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: is in a hiring recession. I would agree with that.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Almost no jobs have been added since April. Wage games
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: are slowing, seven or ten thousand more people are unemployed
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: now versus back in November of twenty four. These are
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: not good signs and are we nearing a potential recession?
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: If we are, then we're going to continue to see
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: pressure on major crypto assets going into the markets for sure,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: And of course within that you've got issues where the
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: market itself is very choppy going into Christmas.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: To take a look at this clip.
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: It's been very disappointing price action, and I think this
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: kind of choppy price action with a negative bent is
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: going to be that an for the festive period. I
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: don't think it's so much about the jobs data. I
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: think the jobs data today is a great one for
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: short term traders, but it's one will quickly move on from.
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: The dynamic here is that on one hand, Pals emphasized
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: that he thinks that the prior jobs data has overstated
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: the health of the jobs market, therefore increasing the scrutiny
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: and in the importance of these numbers given the data
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: VACU before. On the flip side, he also warned that
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: this one's vulnerable to some kind of technical distortions, which
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: means people get very excited in the short term, and
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: then a week later though if it doesn't suit their view,
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: they'll move on from it. The price action is very
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: negative out there, and I think that's going to remain
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: the case until we see the full pain playthrough on
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: the digital asset treasury companies, which are really at the lows,
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: and that's what's really weighing on the crypto sector, and
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: in turn, that's weighing on the retail sentiment, which is
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: then hurting the big AI names or the more mean
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: focused AIA names as well.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: The market is clearly in disarray here as we see
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: going into the end of year, all headlines that we're
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: pointing to a year rally are completely off the table now,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: including what would be stimulated from what we could see
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: out of the Clarity Act. And we'll get into that
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: in a second of why that could be a big
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: catalyst for next year. But earnings concentration right now has
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: reached historic extremes. And what this includes is the earnings
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: of the top seven stocks now reflecting near twenty six
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: percent of the S and p's total earning.
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: Seven stocks.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: I want to say that again, seven stocks reflecting twenty
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: six percent of the entire S and P five hundred
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: total earnings.
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: That's a big deal, guys, in.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Terms of coalitions around what we're seeing in not only
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: the tech side of it, but also just the way
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: that investors are playing the market. They are not betting
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: on any of the midcaps, they're not betting on anything else.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: It's kind of what we've been seeing with of course
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: the all coins here recently. Now, I want to get
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: into a series of clips on an interview that Tom
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Lee did with Proft Galloway, and he talks about the
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: first thing, which is the compare in between twenty twenty
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: five what we've been living and twenty twenty six and
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: how that plays in the crypto market.
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: It feels as if the market has become so concentrated
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: or dependent or circling around a small number of stocks
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: that to be bullish on twenty six sort of mandates
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: that you're well, tell me you think this is true.
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: That indicates that you're bullish on the magnificent ten and
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: AI stocks. Is that necessarily true?
• 4:25
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think twenty twenty six is going to
• 4:27
  Speaker 5: look a lot like this year, meaning we are probably
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: gonna have many months where the market is actually down
• 4:34
  Speaker 5: year to date, you know. I mean this year we
• 4:36
  Speaker 5: were down double digits at one point before the market recovered.
• 4:40
  Speaker 5: I think that plays out next year. But for the
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: reason that I previously stated, I think that we end
• 4:46
  Speaker 5: up a bullish outcome despite all the skepticism. And it
• 4:51
  Speaker 5: does require large cap tech and AI stocks to still produce.
• 4:56
  Speaker 5: Earning's growth can actually perform well because if the FED
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: is cutting and interest rates are coming down and the
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: business cycle is sort of really starting, that that's good
• 5:06
  Speaker 5: for other stocks.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: A couple of things to consider here, and I'm not
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: necessarily in agreement with Tom on this one in the
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: sense that it's good for other stocks that could kind
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: of be like tag alongs. Based on the fact that
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: we're seeing economic pressure coming in from the FED, meaning
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: great cuts, and we'll talk about that in a second.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: How many rate cuts will we get in twenty twenty six.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: But I think the real concern here, which is the
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: canary in the coal mine, It is the issue around
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: labor and jobs. And if we continue to see the
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: pressure coming in from the market, there's going to be
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: a subsequent pressure on many of what we'll see in jobs,
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: just because of in the market in general, just because
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: of the pressure of how investors are looking at the
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: macro environment. Because once jobs start getting soft, they understand
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: there's a huge effect on retail stocks, what we'll see
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: in terms of GDP growth, all those kind of things
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: get hit in a big way. Now he goes on
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: in this interview and he talks about a mini bear market.
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: Listen it.
• 6:04
  Speaker 6: I think it's so interesting when you say there about
• 6:06
  Speaker 6: you know, we're looking at the same things and we're
• 6:09
  Speaker 6: drawing slightly different conclusions about what that means for markets.
• 6:13
  Speaker 7: It would be kind of shocking if you didn't have
• 6:16
  Speaker 7: some kind of profit taking correction in twenty twenty six
• 6:20
  Speaker 7: at some point on the order of ten to fifteen percent.
• 6:23
  Speaker 7: It would be I'd be I'd be really surprised not
• 6:27
  Speaker 7: to see.
• 6:27
  Speaker 5: That our outlook actually does call for a drawdown next year.
• 6:32
  Speaker 5: So very similar to this year of probably closer to
• 6:36
  Speaker 5: twenty percent. So I think we are going to have
• 6:40
  Speaker 5: another miniature bear market next year, but then we're going
• 6:44
  Speaker 5: to recover.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Now le goes on and talks about how this four
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: year cycle and what Bitcoin's role in crypto will be
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: and whether or not it's going to get hit.
• 6:54
  Speaker 5: Take a look, cryptos had a rough year. It was
• 6:57
  Speaker 5: actually having a great year until October tenth than any
• 7:01
  Speaker 5: event in history. The most recent one before this would
• 7:04
  Speaker 5: have been twenty twenty two with FTX, and that wipeout
• 7:08
  Speaker 5: pales in comparison to what happened on October tenth. But
• 7:12
  Speaker 5: in twenty twenty two, it took eight weeks before crypto
• 7:16
  Speaker 5: the smoke cleared, the leverage wipeout was noth in the
• 7:21
  Speaker 5: mirror that crypto prices began to recover. This week is
• 7:25
  Speaker 5: the eighth week since that crisis, and I think crypto
• 7:30
  Speaker 5: prices are beginning to actually recover. That's why I think
• 7:34
  Speaker 5: bitcoin can can double from here by the end of January.
• 7:38
  Speaker 5: And that's gonna be the big question. If bitcoin breaks
• 7:40
  Speaker 5: one twenty five in January, there is no four year cycle.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: I don't think that is going to happen, and there's
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: a couple of indicators that are in the charts just
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: in terms of just if you look at the MACD,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: which is really where we see liquidity flowing into the market.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: The last time that we started to see those highs
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: was back in October of twenty twenty one, and then
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: of course we saw the mac D started to flow
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: out and the market of course went into the beginning
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: of what was a fairly consistent bear market where we
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: saw the bottom coming in. And then of course right
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: around there, which was September of twenty twenty three, that
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: was when we started to see a little bit of
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: life coming back into the market.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: This is looking at bitcoin. This is where we are
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: right now mac D.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Of course we've seen this all time high clipping up there,
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: but right now we are starting to see liquidity flow
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: out again, very similar to back here of when the
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: MACD or what we saw in terms of liquidity flowing
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: out of the market. And this is the first time
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: that we've really seen this, and this is on the
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: monthly chart. So I think Tom Lee may be wrong
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: here now could I be wrong?
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: We'll see at the end of January if we have
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: a one hundred and twenty six thousand dollars bitcoin. Tom Lee,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: I think we'll go down as one of the best
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: analysts maybe ever going forward. Okay, so there could be
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: some things that maybe support Lee's analysis, and one of
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: the would be a cryptoregulation, especially around the market structure. Okay,
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: So we were missing these deadlines left and right. This
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: was supposed to be done all the way up to Thanksgiving.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: That of course was bypassed and missed. We saw a
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: government shutdown that started to affect into it. But for
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: the industry, the latest delay now on market structure legislation
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: says it's more about Washington's priorities, and I think that
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: is the case. Remember that if this goes live in January,
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: it would take a herculean effort to get it done,
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: number one, because I think there's a lot of things
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: they just don't agree on. And the other thing that
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: it has to do is it has to bypass one
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: a potential shutdown and a defense spending. All those kind
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: of things are happening in DC right now. So I
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: just don't know if the Senate, and remember the Senate
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: is the markup phase. Remember the House passed this bill
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: all fun and dandy. Hey, look what we did for crypto.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: The Senate gets over there and says, now, you.
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: Know, home my beer.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: We're going to restructure how this thing looks in all
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: these different ways. It's going to go back to the
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: House for approval. Else is either going to be spineless
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: and approve it the way that the Senate has done it,
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: which is being influenced by so many different places, or
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: they're going to turn it down. And if they turn
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: it down, then we continue to see pressure on the
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: market in general, and the election cycle, of course, starts
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: to draw nearer, and we're talking about midterms. Midterms start
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: to get talked about in March and April. One other
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: thing to look at is the government shot down. As
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: I kind of mentioned there in January. This, of course
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: is the poly market on it starting to move up.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Let me kind of zoom in on that for you guys.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: What it was at its highest was back here in
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: the middle of December eleventh. It was at thirty eight percent,
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: which it had been climbing dramatically. So right now it
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: dropped off significantly and now here recently we've had another spike.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: So this is what DC is dealing with. This is
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: the concern I have with January being the win area
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: for the Clarity Act. I think it moves further into
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: the first quarter. Treasury Secretary Besant, though, says, maybe let's
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: do this, let's trab a little stemmy model here, and
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: let's drop in one thousand, two thousand intact refunds to Americans.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: That could, of course move the needle in terms of retail.
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: But the real question is does it move.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: The needle on some of these liquidity potholes that we
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: have right now in the crypto market. I think that's
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: the big question overall. I want to go to another clip,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: because this is Fox talking about trying to sell tax
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: relief to viewers.
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 11:22
  Speaker 8: The President insists that his tariff windfall is big enough
• 11:25
  Speaker 8: to fund the government, cut the death sit and still
• 11:27
  Speaker 8: put money back in the pockets of voters tariff dividend
• 11:31
  Speaker 8: checks as well. Critics will argue, it's not just critics.
• 11:34
  Speaker 8: We don't need to put it in the frame of critics.
• 11:37
  Speaker 8: I'll argue that the math doesn't add on file. And
• 11:42
  Speaker 8: then you get a refund and there's something that he
• 11:46
  Speaker 8: is piecing together here and it's not quite coming out,
• 11:51
  Speaker 8: but well, I sent something.
• 11:53
  Speaker 9: I sent things to let it rip, and that's exactly
• 11:56
  Speaker 9: what this administration's going to do with the dream team
• 11:59
  Speaker 9: of has and best it.
• 12:02
  Speaker 5: Oh that's your prediction.
• 12:04
  Speaker 8: I think you're going to really see something amazing and
• 12:07
  Speaker 8: the haters are going to have to turn around and
• 12:09
  Speaker 8: admit that they were wrong on this. Why did we
• 12:13
  Speaker 8: need to create what will turn out to be another entitlement?
• 12:16
  Speaker 8: It will view it where people will become capitalist and
• 12:19
  Speaker 8: they will see that their investment within the stock market
• 12:23
  Speaker 8: will grow.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: It will be transformational.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Well, it's good to know that we still have bozos
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: on Fox. What are they talking about exact clip? I
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: have no idea these people are reaching for straws. I
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: guess as it gets a little bit late in the year.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Now Besant goes on and talks about this as well.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: But I'm kind of curious. Do you guys think if
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: you got an extra thousand and two thousand? I mean,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: you guys may do it, But for the average American,
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: would they put it into crypto or would they buy
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: gold or a stock or what do you think they
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: would do?
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: It?
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: It drops some comments down below. Let me play this
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: clip while you're doing that.
• 12:58
  Speaker 10: Welcome back to the trumpet inustration, hoping to give working
• 13:01
  Speaker 10: Americans a boost in the new year with a new
• 13:04
  Speaker 10: tax refund of up to two thousand dollars by early
• 13:07
  Speaker 10: next year. The payout coming from recent tax changes in
• 13:09
  Speaker 10: tariff revenues, with as much as one hundred to one
• 13:11
  Speaker 10: hundred and fifty billion dollars flowing back to taxpayers in
• 13:14
  Speaker 10: the first quarter of twenty twenty six. The White House
• 13:16
  Speaker 10: says it expects this to be the largest refund season
• 13:18
  Speaker 10: on record. I am with the Treasury Secretary this morning,
• 13:22
  Speaker 10: who is also the IRS Commissioner, who is also the
• 13:24
  Speaker 10: guy who's holding it all together. Secretary, what can you
• 13:27
  Speaker 10: tell us You see all the data, What can you
• 13:29
  Speaker 10: tell us about the upcoming tax season and what we're
• 13:31
  Speaker 10: going to see in terms of our return.
• 13:33
  Speaker 9: Yeah, so Maria, let's go back. The One Big Beautiful
• 13:35
  Speaker 9: Bill was passed on July fourth, but for working Americans
• 13:40
  Speaker 9: it was retroactive to the beginning of the year. Most
• 13:44
  Speaker 9: taxpayers did not change their withholding. So as a result,
• 13:48
  Speaker 9: we're going to see very substantial one hundred to one
• 13:51
  Speaker 9: hundred and fifty billion or briefunds in the first quarter
• 13:54
  Speaker 9: go directly to Americans. Pockets. So the center they file,
• 13:57
  Speaker 9: the center, they'll get them.
• 13:59
  Speaker 10: If you're looking at head to the new year and
• 14:01
  Speaker 10: the new five ten years of this revolution of AI,
• 14:05
  Speaker 10: what job would you go into? Would you choose a
• 14:08
  Speaker 10: different sector?
• 14:09
  Speaker 9: I'm not afraid of AI. I had the CEO of
• 14:12
  Speaker 9: one of the largest credit card companies in and I said,
• 14:16
  Speaker 9: tell me, seriously, do you think AI is going to
• 14:19
  Speaker 9: hurt your hiring? He goes, No, We're just going to
• 14:22
  Speaker 9: hire in different areas.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: I don't believe that.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not necessarily believing that. I think we're going
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: to see a lower productivity play out within all organizations
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: out They're just going to hire less because they're going
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: to do more with less, and that is not going
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: to be good I think in general for productivity and
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: the economy. Now, it may be good for certain areas
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: of investing. Here's Bramo talking about this, Lisa Abramo. It's
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: talking about that cash allocates as a fall into record
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: low levels in banks. And this is coming from a
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: lot of fund managers. So basically it's an investor is saying,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: we don't really expect an economic downturn in twenty twenty six,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: but everybody's calling for maybe an over sell. This gets
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: really dicey because the market s ANDP is all time high,
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: gold is cracking like crazy. Liquidity is flowing into these markets,
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: and yet we've got a huge pressure cooker on crypto
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: in general. I don't know this is crypto always leads
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: the way on many of these indicators going forward, I
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: just don't know if this is the time of how
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: this plays out. In twenty twenty six, Tom Lee says
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: that the AI industry is already disrupting.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: And here's why.
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: When people talk about the types of jobs that AI
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: will quite frankly destroy, I think they're describing the analyst
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: at Funstrut.
• 15:48
  Speaker 5: I don't think there's been a year in myke's career
• 15:50
  Speaker 5: on Law Street that money wasn't being spent to actually
• 15:54
  Speaker 5: reduce the labor intensity of the job. I mean, I
• 15:57
  Speaker 5: remembered when I was at JP Morgan. You know, in
• 16:01
  Speaker 5: the nineties and the early two thousands, trading occupied a
• 16:04
  Speaker 5: huge percentage of the cash equities business real estate. You know,
• 16:08
  Speaker 5: it's a couple of floors, and then one day went
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: to electronic systems and like the number of traders went
• 16:15
  Speaker 5: to like, you know, a tenth of a floor.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's scale, and I would agree.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: I think technology has always displaced and can created new
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: more efficiency these a lot more productivity. AI though, is
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: a little different kind of technology because it is not
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: a technology that starts to decrease in value as it
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: gets implemented in systems, because that's what we've seen, you know,
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: it's kind of the race to zero.
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: I think I think AI is going to continue to
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: accelerate on how it's leveraging productivity into systems including businesses
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: and an analysis going forward, so this will be a
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: big deal going forward. I don't know that we have
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: a full grasp of what impact we are truly going
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: to see in Nvidia. I think is still in a
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: good play in general. Now, the question is is it overvalued?
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: That's the real question. Many people would say, all right,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: you could go back and look at it Nvidia, place
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: it in the dot bomb era of prior to or
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: are we getting ready to go into the dot bomb era?
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: And Nvidia is one of those blue skuyed stocks that
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: will make it through, but it's going to take a
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: heavy hit.
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: Here's what Lee had to say about that.
• 17:26
  Speaker 6: When I think about the idea that you know many
• 17:29
  Speaker 6: of these companies and the expectations that have been penned
• 17:34
  Speaker 6: to the AI cycle. The fact that that could affect
• 17:38
  Speaker 6: some of the largest, most valuable companies in the world,
• 17:41
  Speaker 6: where we're seeing the highest concentrations in those small companies,
• 17:44
  Speaker 6: the higher concentration than we've ever seen in history, to me,
• 17:49
  Speaker 6: that makes it scarier what you just said. So I
• 17:52
  Speaker 6: guess my question is do those companies do the big
• 17:55
  Speaker 6: tech companies, the Magnificent seven, do they count in your
• 17:59
  Speaker 6: own analysis of AI valuations being too high and the
• 18:03
  Speaker 6: possibility that perhaps we might lose out or that the
• 18:07
  Speaker 6: value won't actually show up for many of these companies.
• 18:10
  Speaker 5: Tech companies are becoming a bigger part of our life,
• 18:15
  Speaker 5: so naturally they're going to have a larger share of spending. YEP. Now,
• 18:22
  Speaker 5: if I substituted the word and call this instead the
• 18:26
  Speaker 5: word banks of tech companies, I call them financial institutions.
• 18:32
  Speaker 5: We would not be saying there's a financial institution bubble
• 18:37
  Speaker 5: when you.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: Look at the sector of growth. And he is right
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: that what we're dealing with is a concentration. But I
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: think there's going to be some winners and some losers
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: in here. We may end up getting some major losses
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: in one of those or two of those seven.
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: I don't know. It's very, very early.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: In this phase, and it's the same kind of musical
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: chairs that happened in previous cycles that were not necessarily concentrated.
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: But we're definitely focused on a sector.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: But the analyst was right, and that is that it
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: is centering on a not only a sector, but only
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: a few companies within the sector. So traditional Wall Street
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: has to win over the next generation because the older generation,
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: the boomers, even certain generations like in mind gen X,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: unless they're really forward thinking, they're not.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: Thinking this way.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: They're still thinking past thirty years of investing strategies, not
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: looking at the next thirty years of investing strategy. And
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: I think that's the difference right now. I don't know
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: if traditional Wall Street can win over the next generation.
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: So they may be.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Doing this, but I don't know if it's too late
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: for this right now. There's just too many good products
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: coming to market for sure. All right, speaking of what
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: could win what could lose, Let's go over to this
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: clip because this is where Lee talks about all coins.
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 19:55
  Speaker 5: This is the nature of an exponential sector. Right, if
• 20:00
  Speaker 5: we look at an industry that could grow parabolically for
• 20:05
  Speaker 5: ten years, all of the future value is in the
• 20:11
  Speaker 5: latter half of those years, Right, I'd say it's probably
• 20:15
  Speaker 5: safe to say only ten percent are going to be
• 20:17
  Speaker 5: good investments. Maybe it's even generous, maybe five percent. And
• 20:21
  Speaker 5: of course there's gonna be a new emergence set of
• 20:24
  Speaker 5: new players, and in fact the economic model might change,
• 20:28
  Speaker 5: but it doesn't mean it's a bad investment. And we've
• 20:31
  Speaker 5: highlight this as generational trades and past reports for instance,
• 20:35
  Speaker 5: like if you look at the Internet, if you bought
• 20:39
  Speaker 5: the Internet basket in ninety nine, okay, so you bought
• 20:43
  Speaker 5: it near the peak and you held it to today,
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: you actually still outperform the S and P five hundred,
• 20:51
  Speaker 5: even though ninety nine percent of the stocks went to zero.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: All right, I mean what he's getting at there is
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: there's going to be just some x mental growth innovators
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: in this sector around all coins and some of these
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: new emerging techs in blockchain. And we all know that.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, we already have been trading in this space
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: for quite some time. In the sense of meme coins,
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: you're going to have a handful that whin someone something
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: like a Doze which is sitting there in the top ten,
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: and others, I think, and there's going to be a
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: few that fall out, obviously with what's going on with
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: a lot of the regulatory alignment, there could be a
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: big ramp up here. Even if a lot of these
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: do go to zero, you're gonna end up winning on
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: some other ones, whether it's a polytoken or we get
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: others that start to go out with a base token.
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: There's many that will hit this market and may end
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: up being here at the right time, So just you
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: have to be ready to play the market that way.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: Here's the FED now cutting rates six times for a
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: total one hundred and seventy five bases points of easing
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: since the first move back in September of twenty twenty four,
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: six cuts twenty twenty four, a little over a year ago,
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: six cuts in, but over that time other rates have
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: barely moved. The market now prices a higher rate in
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: q four of twenty twenty six than it did prior
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: to the first rate cut, So this is interesting with
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: the potential for seeing how the long term yields play
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: out around these FED rate cuts, And I just don't
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: know how this could play out with twenty twenty six.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: Right now, Polymarket has it setting the leader right now
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: is of course getting three rate cuts in twenty twenty six,
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: and that's clipping up a little bit. Let me kind
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: of zoom in on that for you guys so you
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: can kind of see this a little bit better. But
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: right there it is twenty four percent on three quarter
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: paces points cuts in twenty twenty six. That would be
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: the assumption, even though there were times when we were
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: looking at more than that for twenty twenty five. So
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: maybe all that will change soon. Here, of course gets
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: into who is going to be the FED chair, and
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: we are all over the.
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: Board on this.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: You've got some mismatches. You've got this little movement here
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: re simply with of course right now with Kevin Walsh,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: who is holding You've got Kevin Hassett starting to split
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: in there, and this is the situation. Hassett still taking
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: another reverse and here recently one of the guys was
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: telling me that we were analyzing some video from Hassett
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: on a recent interview and he had a lot more
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: neutral positioning statements that made him kind of talk more
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: fed like. So maybe he has got the word from
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: Trump that he is going to be the fair.
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: We'll play it out, but be on the lookout, guys.
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: We're going to see a lot, all right. If you
• 23:35
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• 23:38
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• 23:40
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• 23:43
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• 23:45
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• 23:48
  Speaker 1: next time right here on The Paul Baron Show.