Latest / The Morning Edition / Peter Hartcher: Donald Trump is on the cusp of walking away from Iran

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Peter Hartcher: Donald Trump is on the cusp of walking away from Iran · The Morning Edition

• 0:04
  S1: American President Donald Trump says he is nearly done with
• 0:07
  S1: the war in Iran, declaring we will be leaving very soon.
• 0:11
  S1: His Secretary of state, too, said on Wednesday that he
• 0:15
  S1: can see the finish line. This would be significant if
• 0:19
  S1: the Americans were in control of the war. I'm Samantha
• 0:23
  S1: Selinger Morris, and you're listening to Morning Edition from the
• 0:27
  S1: Age and The Sydney Morning Herald today, international and political
• 0:31
  S1: editor Peter Hartcher on how much power the United States
• 0:34
  S1: has leached in only four weeks at war while the
• 0:38
  S1: Iranian regime is in its element. It's April the 2nd. Peter,
• 0:48
  S1: welcome back to the podcast.
• 0:49
  S2: Pleasure to be with you, Samantha.
• 0:51
  S1: Okay. Well, I'm going to start with a big question.
• 0:54
  S1: Are the Americans now in a quagmire in Iran? We
• 0:58
  S1: know this is a term that the, you know, former
• 1:00
  S1: American Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld used in the early
• 1:03
  S1: 2000 swearing, of course, that America was not in a
• 1:06
  S1: quagmire in Iraq, when, of course, that's ultimately what happened. Now,
• 1:11
  S1: Trump has just sent thousands of paratroopers to the Middle East,
• 1:14
  S1: ready to join the US Marines that have already been
• 1:16
  S1: sent there. And then, of course, over the weekend, we
• 1:19
  S1: saw that the Houthi rebels in Yemen entered the fight
• 1:22
  S1: launching missiles at Israel. So what say you? Peter? Are
• 1:26
  S1: we are we in quagmire territory yet?
• 1:30
  S2: Well, and of course, famously, Vietnam, the Vietnam War was
• 1:33
  S2: described as a quagmire for the US as well. Well,
• 1:36
  S2: I think we collectively are not in a military quagmire,
• 1:41
  S2: but we collectively the world, are deep in an energy
• 1:45
  S2: and economic quagmire now thanks to this war. So we
• 1:48
  S2: can say that much. As for the military quagmire that
• 1:51
  S2: the US may or may not be in, I think
• 1:53
  S2: the answer is no, they're not. Partly because Trump has
• 1:57
  S2: never cogently or consistently defined the aim of this war. Therefore,
• 2:02
  S2: he can walk away and just redefine the terms of
• 2:06
  S2: victory as he chooses. And you'll remember from the very
• 2:10
  S2: first day, he said it could be two days, could
• 2:13
  S2: be 4 or 5 weeks, could be regime change, could
• 2:16
  S2: be nuclear weapons, could be destroying their navy and so on.
• 2:20
  S2: And the roster of possible potential and ever rotating war
• 2:26
  S2: aims that we're all now so familiar with. And now
• 2:30
  S2: he's redefined regime change several times, most recently in the
• 2:34
  S2: last couple of days. He said he's already changed the
• 2:36
  S2: regime twice in the last in the last month. So
• 2:40
  S2: he can declare that job accomplished, he says, because the
• 2:44
  S2: people running around now, he says nobody's ever heard of
• 2:46
  S2: them before.
• 2:47
  S1: Which is of course, insane. We know. Of course, there
• 2:49
  S1: is no regime change. The Theocrats are still in control.
• 2:52
  S2: Well, if you think regime change means removing a one
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  S2: party theocratic dictatorship hell bent on destroying the countries it
• 3:00
  S2: describes as the Great Satan being the US and the
• 3:03
  S2: little Satan being Israel, then it's still exactly the same regime.
• 3:09
  S2: So he has the option of declaring victory, walking away
• 3:13
  S2: at any point. It's not that that is the difficult part.
• 3:17
  S2: I think the difficult part are the terms on which
• 3:21
  S2: he walks out. Now that he, together with Netanyahu, with
• 3:25
  S2: the full and willing participation of the Iranian regime, have
• 3:29
  S2: now created this enormous shock to the global energy and
• 3:34
  S2: economic systems. He's now signaled he's now said explicitly he's
• 3:39
  S2: prepared to walk away without fixing it. He said I'm
• 3:42
  S2: I can leave without opening the Strait of Hormuz. I'll
• 3:45
  S2: leave that to everybody else, I don't care. America doesn't
• 3:47
  S2: need the oil. We have our own oil supplies, which
• 3:51
  S2: technically is true. Of course, the US technically on a
• 3:55
  S2: net basis, has energy independence produce about 106% of their
• 4:00
  S2: own needs. The problem is that the price of oil
• 4:03
  S2: is fungible. So what happens to the price of a
• 4:06
  S2: barrel of Brent in the Strait of Hormuz also affects
• 4:10
  S2: the price of a barrel of West Texas crude in
• 4:12
  S2: the US. So it's a nonsense that he that he
• 4:15
  S2: can somehow insulate the US from this just by walking
• 4:18
  S2: away from the war. He cannot. And he's. He's violating.
• 4:22
  S2: If he if he does, in fact walk out without
• 4:25
  S2: subduing the Iranians and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, then
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  S2: he's broken the famous so-called Pottery Barn rule that former
• 4:34
  S2: US Secretary of State Colin Powell, also chairman of the
• 4:37
  S2: Joint Chiefs and a decorated general in the US Army, declared.
• 4:42
  S2: He declared The Pottery Barn rule is that if you
• 4:44
  S2: break it, you own it. Donald Trump has certainly broken
• 4:48
  S2: a lot of things, but he's not prepared to own
• 4:51
  S2: any of them.
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  S1: Absolutely. And we know he breaks rules left, right and center.
• 4:56
  S1: So let's continue with what you've been saying. So we're
• 4:58
  S1: not in a quagmire just yet. And like you say,
• 5:01
  S1: Donald Trump, he could walk away at any time. And
• 5:04
  S1: we know that. I mean, he lies as well. So
• 5:06
  S1: perhaps let's not think about what he's saying, but what
• 5:08
  S1: he's doing because I am thinking, okay, he's now sent
• 5:11
  S1: thousands of paratroopers and Marines. Uh, and I'm wondering if
• 5:15
  S1: he's going to do that, if he's not going to
• 5:16
  S1: use them. In addition to the fact that Trump has
• 5:19
  S1: spoken about taking Kharg Island. This is the key hub
• 5:22
  S1: for Iran's oil exports. But I believe that Iran can
• 5:25
  S1: actually reach that island with missiles and drones. Now, this
• 5:28
  S1: does not sound like a recipe for a quick operation
• 5:32
  S1: with Trump achieving. I don't know any goals or even
• 5:35
  S1: ending this war. So does that have the capacity to
• 5:37
  S1: just absolutely expand the length and messiness of this war?
• 5:42
  S2: Yes it does. It's not clear whether he intends to
• 5:45
  S2: use those troops. The Pentagon says it's giving the president
• 5:48
  S2: options should he choose to use them. So it's entirely
• 5:52
  S2: up to Trump and we simply don't know. But expert advice,
• 5:58
  S2: for example, I talked to Mick Ryan, a former major
• 6:01
  S2: general in the Australian Army and a prominent military strategist.
• 6:06
  S2: About exactly this. And he told me that he sees
• 6:10
  S2: no either physically feasible or politically bearable way for the
• 6:14
  S2: US to engage its troops in the occupation of either
• 6:20
  S2: Hog Island that you've described or any of the Iranian
• 6:24
  S2: oil facilities or other facilities along the coasts. He did, however,
• 6:31
  S2: say that a raid by Marines or paratroopers, a quick
• 6:37
  S2: in and out raid to disable, to remove, to take
• 6:42
  S2: may be possible. He said he could think of dozens
• 6:45
  S2: of such scenarios where that could be workable, but he
• 6:48
  S2: said we're talking about a raid for hours or a
• 6:50
  S2: few days. We're not talking about weeks or anything longer
• 6:54
  S2: term than that. What Trump thinks that such a raid
• 6:58
  S2: might achieve, that a bombing campaign has not. We don't know.
• 7:04
  S1: I guess we'll have to wait to see how it
• 7:07
  S1: plays out, because I have heard some analysts saying that
• 7:10
  S1: they they think that it looks like Trump might be
• 7:12
  S1: wanting to escalate in order to deescalate. So sort of,
• 7:15
  S1: you know, bring the heat up on Iran to, I guess, uh,
• 7:18
  S1: you know, compel them to back off. Which brings us
• 7:22
  S1: to your latest column because, you know, you've written that,
• 7:25
  S1: of course, Donald Trump and the Iranian regime have both
• 7:28
  S1: been talking about a us-iran war for decades. But the
• 7:31
  S1: planning on each side is asymmetric, to say the least.
• 7:34
  S1: So let's get into it. First, tell me what Trump
• 7:36
  S1: has said or done about wanting to attack Iran over
• 7:40
  S1: the decades.
• 7:41
  S2: Well, Donald Trump, he does have form. He has a record,
• 7:45
  S2: a long record on this way back when he was
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  S2: a businessman in 1987 88, when he was flirting with
• 7:53
  S2: the idea of running for the presidency. He talked about
• 7:58
  S2: taking Iran's oil. He talked about hitting hard, destroying Haag Island,
• 8:04
  S2: the oil facilities on Haag Island in Iran. He took
• 8:07
  S2: out a full page ad in the New York Times,
• 8:10
  S2: where he complained about the unfairness of the way that
• 8:16
  S2: US allies treated the US and how Iran was should
• 8:20
  S2: be a part of the the prize for the US.
• 8:24
  S2: So so he's been talking about this since 30, 38
• 8:29
  S2: years or something. On the other hand, the Iranians, ever
• 8:34
  S2: since the end of the Iran-Iraq war, which is a
• 8:38
  S2: horrible eight year war where the Iraqis had a lot
• 8:43
  S2: of advantages, including a lot of support and military supply
• 8:47
  S2: from the US and others. At the end of that war,
• 8:50
  S2: the Iranians decided that they had to be ready for
• 8:54
  S2: a long and difficult siege by superior forces at any
• 9:00
  S2: point in their future. And I'd also just take you back, Samantha,
• 9:04
  S2: briefly to the very origin point of this whole regime
• 9:07
  S2: in Iran. The whole concept was that it was a
• 9:10
  S2: regime of resistance. It was all about defiance. Death to America,
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  S2: death to Israel. That's the battle cry of this regime
• 9:19
  S2: since 1979. It's never wanted to be a full participant
• 9:26
  S2: in the global affairs. It's never wanted to be a
• 9:29
  S2: full participant with the US, it's always set itself up
• 9:32
  S2: as a as a center, a headquarters of global resistance.
• 9:36
  S2: And that was its claim to legitimacy, its domestic legitimacy
• 9:40
  S2: and its role on the world stage. So ever since then,
• 9:43
  S2: ever since in particular, the Iran-Iraq war finished in 88,
• 9:47
  S2: the Iranians have been making concrete preparations. They call it
• 9:51
  S2: a resistance economy that they set up with high levels
• 9:54
  S2: of self-dependence, where they manufacture all their own essentials pharmaceuticals,
• 10:00
  S2: car parts, anything that they might need to endure a war.
• 10:05
  S2: Alternative import routes across land so they're not dependent on
• 10:09
  S2: things like the Strait of Hormuz. Enormous stocks of weapons
• 10:13
  S2: and also the flirting with and experimenting with and venturing
• 10:18
  S2: into refining uranium with a potential view to one day
• 10:22
  S2: perhaps developing a nuclear weapon. So they have been preparing
• 10:26
  S2: in concrete terms. By contrast, Trump has been talking about
• 10:30
  S2: it for a long time. But what we see in
• 10:32
  S2: this war is that his preparations have been, uh, shall
• 10:36
  S2: we say, incomplete, shambolic, and at no point has he
• 10:39
  S2: taken seriously the threat that Iran would close the Strait
• 10:43
  S2: of Hormuz. And at no point has he planned for
• 10:47
  S2: what to do about that.
• 10:48
  S1: Is this why Iran can take a lot more economic
• 10:51
  S1: pain than the United States? Because you've made that point
• 10:53
  S1: in your column. Is this why or is it something else?
• 10:56
  S2: Well, it's exactly for those reasons. It has been making
• 10:59
  S2: concrete preparations to be self-reliant in the event of a crisis.
• 11:04
  S2: But it's also the fact that the politics of the
• 11:09
  S2: regime are that this. They see this as their doomsday.
• 11:14
  S2: The regime has been waiting for the day when the
• 11:16
  S2: Great Satan, so-called, and the little Satan so-called, would team
• 11:21
  S2: up and come against them. But this is the way
• 11:25
  S2: the regime, the way the ayatollahs see it. This is
• 11:28
  S2: this is doomsday. And they're enacting the doomsday plan. Its
• 11:32
  S2: survival is the is the goal. It's the only goal. Survive.
• 11:37
  S2: Resist outwait the Americans and have greater endurance, a greater
• 11:43
  S2: pain tolerance. They don't have to face an electorate. Trump's
• 11:47
  S2: got midterms coming up. For them, there is no alternative
• 11:50
  S2: to this. They either endure this war or they're all dead.
• 11:57
  S1: After the break.
• 11:58
  S2: If it weren't so serious, everybody would laugh at Trump
• 12:01
  S2: every day. You don't need a late night comedian. He
• 12:04
  S2: writes this the scenes himself.
• 12:13
  S3: And so, Peter.
• 12:14
  S1: I've got to ask, is Iran winning in this war
• 12:17
  S1: so far?
• 12:19
  S2: Well, so far. So again, to quote the strategist and
• 12:23
  S2: retired general Mick Ryan, the Iranians are achieving their theory
• 12:28
  S2: of victory earlier and more comprehensively than the Americans are
• 12:32
  S2: achieving theirs. And to quote Mick Ryan again, both sides
• 12:37
  S2: might be ready to negotiate, but only one side is
• 12:39
  S2: desperate to negotiate. And that's not the Iranians.
• 12:43
  S1: And you spoke to an expert on Iran, and he
• 12:46
  S1: said something which I just wanted to ask you about,
• 12:48
  S1: because I wonder if it sort of portends that this
• 12:51
  S1: could become a very long, entrenched conflict, because this expert
• 12:54
  S1: said to you, it really seems to be a matter
• 12:56
  S1: of when, not if, this Iranian control over oil exports
• 13:00
  S1: forces deeper American involvement to dislodge the regime, particularly as
• 13:05
  S1: more Marines are entering the region. That would seem to
• 13:08
  S1: sort of foreshadow, well, a future quagmire. By my reading.
• 13:13
  S1: But I'm no military expert. So you tell me, Peter.
• 13:16
  S2: Well, that was the view of, uh, an expert on Iran,
• 13:19
  S2: as you say, Benham from the Foundation for the Defense
• 13:23
  S2: of Democracies in Washington, D.C., who follows Iran intimately and
• 13:27
  S2: has been for decades. He's a native Farsi speaker. But
• 13:32
  S2: on this reading of Trump's plans, he may or may
• 13:34
  S2: not be right. Trump may or may not send those
• 13:38
  S2: troops in, which then, as you say, gets closer to
• 13:42
  S2: quagmire territory and raises the risks for the US of
• 13:47
  S2: direct military losses. But Trump himself, we now hear and
• 13:53
  S2: I know we hear a lot from Trump, but he's
• 13:55
  S2: now said for the first time that negotiations don't matter.
• 14:01
  S2: It doesn't matter whether he has a deal or not.
• 14:02
  S2: He doesn't. Until now, he's been pleading for negotiations and
• 14:06
  S2: a deal. Now he says a deal doesn't matter. He
• 14:07
  S2: can just walk away and leave. The burden of managing
• 14:13
  S2: export of oil through the Strait of Hormuz to the allies.
• 14:16
  S2: He specifically named Britain and France in the last 24
• 14:19
  S2: hours and said, we don't care. We don't need the oil.
• 14:23
  S2: It's up to you guys. So I go in, I
• 14:26
  S2: start a war, I escalate the Iranians, return the favor,
• 14:31
  S2: cripple the global oil and energy system, I walk away,
• 14:35
  S2: it's someone else's problem. Tough luck. So that's that seems
• 14:39
  S2: to be the cusp on which we're poised. Does he
• 14:42
  S2: walk away and leave the leave a completely dysfunctional global
• 14:47
  S2: economy in the balance for everyone else to worry about
• 14:51
  S2: my war, your problem, or does he intend to insert
• 14:57
  S2: greater force and perhaps including troops on the ground to
• 15:03
  S2: try to smash the Iranian regime and smash their oil
• 15:07
  S2: export market.
• 15:09
  S1: Well that's it. I mean, the troops, I don't believe
• 15:11
  S1: they're on the ground yet, but there's certainly been mobilized
• 15:13
  S1: in the area, which is significant. And of course, Donald
• 15:16
  S1: Trump has threatened to blow up Iran's power stations if
• 15:19
  S1: Iran doesn't agree to a ceasefire. So if Trump does
• 15:23
  S1: go ahead with striking this infrastructure and in retaliation, Iran
• 15:26
  S1: then destroys energy infrastructure across the Gulf, which I think
• 15:29
  S1: is a is a is a likely scenario. Some commentators
• 15:33
  S1: are saying that this could be one of the major
• 15:35
  S1: quote before and after events of human history. Is there
• 15:39
  S1: any validity to that?
• 15:42
  S2: I think it already is. Samantha, I think we have
• 15:45
  S2: already just in this last month and a bit seen,
• 15:50
  S2: the global systems have now crossed our threshold in a
• 15:53
  S2: couple of ways. Now, what the situation you're describing is
• 15:58
  S2: where the Gulf states, including the Saudis, the Emiratis can
• 16:04
  S2: no longer freely or reliably export their their oil because
• 16:09
  S2: their systems have been smashed. And the Qataris, if there
• 16:14
  S2: is further damage to their LNG plants, their massive export
• 16:17
  S2: of LNG. So if that were to happen, the global
• 16:22
  S2: oil price, which so far has been up about 60%,
• 16:27
  S2: the global LNG price, which has been up over 100%,
• 16:30
  S2: they would would continue to increase to a much higher level.
• 16:34
  S2: It would be a very difficult interim phase for the
• 16:38
  S2: world to get through. But I think the net effect
• 16:40
  S2: of this crisis will be to accelerate the global decarbonisation
• 16:45
  S2: of countries around the world who see that as the
• 16:48
  S2: only way of severing their dependence on this. A lot
• 16:53
  S2: of countries are better placed than we in Australia are
• 16:56
  S2: for for a difficult interim phase. The other way in
• 17:01
  S2: which I think we've crossed a threshold, Samantha, is the
• 17:05
  S2: amount of power that Donald Trump. While the paradox here
• 17:10
  S2: is that he thinks he's demonstrating America's great, mighty and
• 17:15
  S2: unassailable invincible power. What he's actually done is reveal American weakness,
• 17:23
  S2: and he has ceded power notably to the great challenger
• 17:28
  S2: of the US, which is China. He sacrificed American credibility
• 17:32
  S2: and reliability here. Everybody. The entire world. If it weren't
• 17:37
  S2: so serious, everybody would laugh at Trump every day. It doesn't.
• 17:41
  S2: You don't need a late night comedian. He writes the
• 17:43
  S2: scenes himself. He cannot be trusted. He cannot be relied on.
• 17:47
  S2: His allies are in a state of near apoplexy about
• 17:53
  S2: his unreliability, but also the casual abuse and burdens that
• 17:56
  S2: he throws out onto his allies. So the great beneficiary
• 17:59
  S2: of this is China, whose own standing as the second
• 18:03
  S2: biggest economy or purchasing power parity terms, biggest economy in
• 18:07
  S2: the world looks like a stable, credible, sensible regime without
• 18:11
  S2: having to do anything, without having to do a thing.
• 18:15
  S2: And the second way in which it transfers power is
• 18:18
  S2: that while the US is now tied up in the
• 18:21
  S2: Middle East, while the US, while Trump has now further
• 18:23
  S2: degraded the use and the viability. Political viability of the
• 18:29
  S2: use of military force in the US, it simply sapped
• 18:33
  S2: the US's ability to wage military force. Not just Trump's, but.
• 18:38
  S2: But any. And this is part of a continuum that
• 18:42
  S2: really accelerated with the Iran and Afghanistan wars. And this
• 18:45
  S2: is now another under another president demonstrating that they might
• 18:48
  S2: have a bunch of missiles, but they have no strategy.
• 18:51
  S2: And I think this does accelerate this does hasten the
• 18:55
  S2: relative decline of US power against the relative rise of China's.
• 19:01
  S1: I mean, just tell me here I've just had a
• 19:03
  S1: thought and you just tell me if it's outlandish or
• 19:05
  S1: if I'm off with the Pixies, because I wonder whether
• 19:08
  S1: in decades to come, we'll look back at this moment
• 19:10
  S1: as the beginning of when America became some sort of pariah.
• 19:14
  S1: Like not only, of course, is its power being degraded
• 19:16
  S1: and its influence is being degraded and its allies are well,
• 19:20
  S1: they're not revolting against America yet, but they're certainly finding
• 19:23
  S1: America revolting in terms of their lack of reliance. Like,
• 19:26
  S1: could this be. Could we look back at this moment
• 19:28
  S1: and go, wow, this is when America really, you know,
• 19:31
  S1: it was the beginning of other countries ganging up on America.
• 19:35
  S2: I think we are past that point. And I think
• 19:38
  S2: history will will see that because it's the moment that
• 19:41
  S2: this is the moment Donald Trump is the man, and
• 19:44
  S2: this is the moment when he has willingly just junked
• 19:49
  S2: the US empire. Now, the US empire, that's a controversial term.
• 19:54
  S2: And the US does not have an empire in the
• 19:56
  S2: traditional sense, but around the world, the distinctive feature of
• 20:00
  S2: the US empire since World War Two has been that
• 20:03
  S2: it has been a virtual empire built on trust, and
• 20:08
  S2: it's been an empire in which the US has made
• 20:10
  S2: itself attractive and indispensable to other countries so that volunteers,
• 20:15
  S2: countries have volunteered. Other countries have wanted to be US allies,
• 20:18
  S2: they've clamored to be US allies. And that's given that
• 20:22
  S2: has given had given the US an enormous structure of
• 20:27
  S2: alliances around the world. More than 40 countries, all of
• 20:30
  S2: the rich democracies on the planet were were willing participants
• 20:35
  S2: in this virtual empire. Now, Trump's Trump has shattered that.
• 20:39
  S2: This has all come to an end. There is no
• 20:41
  S2: trust which takes decades to build, and Trump is shredding
• 20:45
  S2: every single day. It's very difficult to recover that the
• 20:49
  S2: virtual empire is ended. That was the US's distinctive source
• 20:53
  S2: of power. It operated the rules and the alliance structures
• 20:57
  S2: which governed the world. Obama started this, I think, when
• 21:00
  S2: he showed the US did not have the willpower to
• 21:03
  S2: enforce its own redlines, even on a, you know, a
• 21:06
  S2: tin pot state like Syria. And that then encouraged the Russians,
• 21:09
  S2: the Chinese, to make the territorial and political expansions that
• 21:13
  S2: they've been doing ever since. But Trump now, not only
• 21:18
  S2: is he happy to appease the Russians under Putin try
• 21:23
  S2: to do deals without confronting Beijing. He's now thrown away
• 21:27
  S2: the virtual empire, which was the US distinctive source of power.
• 21:32
  S2: And I do I do absolutely think this is the
• 21:34
  S2: historic threshold. We are watching the sun go down on
• 21:38
  S2: this empire day by day. And it's Donald Trump.
• 21:42
  S1: Wow. Like, like you've said in previous podcasts, big history
• 21:45
  S1: in a short period of time every day.
• 21:49
  S2: It's all around us. Unfortunately, it's also at the petrol bowser.
• 21:53
  S1: Well, it's on all levels, isn't it? So as always, Peter,
• 21:56
  S1: thank you so much for your time.
• 21:57
  S2: Pleasure, Samantha.
• 22:14
  S1: In other news today, Victorian police are searching two phones
• 22:18
  S1: found at Desi Freeman's remote hideout for information on who
• 22:22
  S1: helped the former fugitive prime minister Anthony Albanese gave a
• 22:26
  S1: rare address to the nation last night on the war
• 22:28
  S1: and fuel supply. And two Sydney private schools have been
• 22:32
  S1: found to be spending more than $5 million a year
• 22:35
  S1: on a team of executives. To find out more, go
• 22:38
  S1: to SMH or the Ajcosta. Today's episode was produced by
• 22:44
  S1: Kai Wong. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, and our
• 22:48
  S1: podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. If
• 22:52
  S1: you like our show, follow The Morning Edition and leave
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