Latest / Best of LinkedIn: Strategy, M&A & Investments / Best of LinkedIn: Private Equity: Value Creation CW 34/ 35
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Provided by Thomas Allgaier and Frennus, based on the most relevant LinkedIn posts about private equity.
- 0:06Speaker 1: Value creation in calendar weeks thirty-four and thirty five.
- 0:10Speaker 1: Frenness supports PE back manufacturers with a market intelligence needed to unlock revenue from idle production capacity.
- 0:17Speaker 1: you can find more info
- 0:19Speaker 0: And for those of you joining us today, we are going to be giving you a very focused totally no fluff breakdown.
- 0:25Speaker 0: Of the top private equity insights were seeing trend across LinkedIn right now.
- 0:30Speaker 0: exactly
- 0:30Speaker 1: so if your in strategy M&A or investments.
- 0:34Speaker 1: this deep dive is specifically tailored.
- 0:37Speaker 0: Right, because we are looking at this massive shift happening in the industry today.
- 0:41Speaker 0: The whole center of gravity and private equity is.
- 0:43Speaker 0: it's moving completely away from the deal itself.
- 0:45Speaker 0: Yeah...the
- 0:45Speaker 1: actual signing
- 0:46Speaker 0: Exactly!
- 0:47Speaker 0: It's heavily moving toward post-signing execution And real operations
- 0:51Speaker 1: Which is fascinating right?
- 0:52Speaker 1: Because I mean if you start with a macro landscape You really start to see why This center of gravies shifting so violently.
- 0:58Speaker 0: Oh absolutely..The data just undeniable.
- 1:00Speaker 0: At that point
- 1:01Speaker 1: Right....the old ways generating returns Are basically losing their edge.
- 1:05Speaker 1: Look at these striking data Alvarez and Marsol just put out.
- 1:08Speaker 0: Yeah, that report was everywhere.
- 1:10Speaker 1: It really was And they pointed out that operations now drive forty seven percent of buyout value creation
- 1:16Speaker 0: which is huge.
- 1:18Speaker 1: it Is because ends up from just twenty five percent not that long ago?
- 1:22Speaker 1: At the same time The share From pure financial engineering has Just plummeted.
- 1:27Speaker 0: yeah drop from fifty one percent.
- 1:28Speaker 0: I mean That is a total inversion Of the model
- 1:30Speaker 1: it Really is.
- 1:31Speaker 1: it makes me think well this like buying A company used to be Like flipping a house
- 1:36Speaker 0: You know?
- 1:36Speaker 0: Oh, that's a good way to look at it.
- 1:37Speaker 1: Yeah like you buy the house slap on a fresh coat of paint which is your financial engineering and then you just flip into the next buyer for a profit
- 1:44Speaker 0: right relying On The Market To Just Lift The Price For You.
- 1:47Speaker 1: Exactly.
- 1:48Speaker 1: but today It'S not A House Flip Anymore.
- 1:52Speaker 1: Its Like Buying A Complex Factory That You Actually Have To Get Inside Of Run Maintain And You Know Aggressively Optimize
- 2:00Speaker 0: Because The Value Is Built Or Destroyed After The Wire Clears.
- 2:04Speaker 0: Now not during the price negotiation.
- 2:06Speaker 1: Exactly, and that shift is completely changing how capital flows isn't it?
- 2:11Speaker 1: Oh
- 2:11Speaker 0: fundamentally I mean Adam Street Partners recently found that seventy-two percent of LPs are now favoring the middle market over mega buyouts.
- 2:19Speaker 1: Wow!
- 2:20Speaker 1: Seventy two percent Yeah.
- 2:21Speaker 0: And its specifically because this need for operational value creation.
- 2:26Speaker 0: You can just squeeze a massive heavily optimized mega cap company For that kind of operational juice anymore.
- 2:33Speaker 1: Right they're already running too lean
- 2:34Speaker 0: Exactly.
- 2:35Speaker 0: But the middle market still has all this room to physically improve the unit economics,
- 2:40Speaker 1: which you have to do because of the timeline.
- 2:42Speaker 1: KPMG had a great insight on that recently noting that exits are just taking longer across-the board right now
- 2:48Speaker 0: for sure.
- 2:48Speaker 0: The holding periods or stretching out?
- 2:50Speaker 0: Right
- 2:50Speaker 1: and when we're holding an asset longer those raw paper valuations start To mean less and less to investors.
- 2:56Speaker 1: they
- 2:56Speaker 0: mean almost nothing.
- 2:57Speaker 0: LPs want raw cash generation.
- 2:59Speaker 1: Yeah DPI
- 3:00Speaker 0: exactly distributed to paid in capital.
- 3:04Speaker 0: If you aren't operationally throwing off cash, it doesn't matter what the spreadsheet says your company is worth.
- 3:10Speaker 1: Right which puts an insane amount of pressure immediately on a post-acquisition integration phase.
- 3:15Speaker 1: Oh
- 3:15Speaker 0: day one!
- 3:16Speaker 0: The pressure starts on Day One
- 3:18Speaker 1: Because if operations are new engine Then your integration playbook has to be flawless.
- 3:23Speaker 1: Okay, but I mean why do so many of these post acquisition plans just completely fall apart?
- 3:29Speaker 1: Well
- 3:29Speaker 0: the sources point to a really harsh reality about The classic one hundred day plan.
- 3:34Speaker 1: Yeah We see this all the time.
- 3:35Speaker 1: most These One Hundred Day Plans fail because they're Just.
- 3:39Speaker 1: They're Basically High-Level Strategy Documents.
- 3:41Speaker 1: Right
- 3:42Speaker 0: Exactly.
- 3:42Speaker 0: They aren't Operating Contracts
- 3:44Speaker 1: right.
- 3:45Speaker 1: They lack real owners for the initiatives, and more importantly they don't have actual budgets attached to them.
- 3:50Speaker 0: And if there's no budget it is not a real plan its just a wish list which why the smartest firms are moving toward this concept of The Third Company.
- 3:58Speaker 0: Oh
- 3:59Speaker 1: right!
- 3:59Speaker 1: The third company model.
- 4:00Speaker 1: Let us unpack that.
- 4:01Speaker 0: Yeah, so basically the strongest integrations don't just take the acquired business and try to aggressively absorb it into their existing platform.
- 4:09Speaker 0: Instead they treat the acquired.
- 4:20Speaker 1: Yeah, they're building shared capabilities across the entire portfolio too.
- 4:23Speaker 0: Exactly talent pricing software procurement.
- 4:27Speaker 0: that's becoming a much bigger differentiator than just being good at picking deals.
- 4:31Speaker 0: but
- 4:31Speaker 1: wait let me push back on That third company idea for a second.
- 4:35Speaker 1: if you treat a newly acquired Company Just as raw material don't you risk destroying?
- 4:40Speaker 1: The unique culture or You know the institutional knowledge that made them attractive in the first place?
- 4:46Speaker 0: It's a fair question, and it is huge risk if you do wrong.
- 4:49Speaker 0: But the key is focusing on culture agnostic operational levers.
- 4:53Speaker 1: Okay what an example of cultural agnestic lever?
- 4:55Speaker 0: So one of the posters broke down this great example in offshore model that was rolled out across thirty-one different portfolio companies.
- 5:03Speaker 0: Wow!
- 5:04Speaker 0: And they basically centralized back office delivered one point eight million dollars.
- 5:09Speaker 0: immediate savings kept at ninety two percent retention rate drove three to five percent EBITDA gain.
- 5:15Speaker 0: Well,
- 5:16Speaker 1: and how long?
- 5:17Speaker 0: Just eight months.
- 5:18Speaker 1: that's incredible
- 5:19Speaker 0: right.
- 5:19Speaker 0: And you aren't messing with the targets culture.
- 5:21Speaker 0: when you just centralize accounts payable You're just fixing the plumbing
- 5:25Speaker 1: Right.
- 5:25Speaker 1: another hidden lever I saw mentioned was reviewing PEO relationships.
- 5:30Speaker 1: So professional employer organizations
- 5:32Speaker 0: Oh yeah The HR side Yeah.
- 5:34Speaker 1: if you look at that portfolio wide you can surface so much invisible renewal exposure.
- 5:41Speaker 1: aggregate it from massive cost savings without touching the culture.
- 5:44Speaker 0: Exactly!
- 5:45Speaker 1: But, you know this infrastructure stuff gets super dangerous when we get into carve-outs.
- 5:49Speaker 0: Carve-outs are a nightmare if you aren't prepared
- 5:52Speaker 1: Seriously?
- 5:53Speaker 1: Real quick If your listening to this and currently drafting on one hundred day plan or looking at a carve out make sure you subscribe so that catch our future deep dies of these specific operational tactics.
- 6:03Speaker 1: Good but getting back to carve outs TSA The transition service agreement is just mind field.
- 6:08Speaker 1: Did you see the stat that sixty-eight percent of IT related carve out?
- 6:12Speaker 1: TSAs require an extension?
- 6:15Speaker 1: Yes.
- 6:15Speaker 0: Sixty eight percent
- 6:17Speaker 1: and that is so expensive!
- 6:19Speaker 1: It destroys value, costs climb from what unexpected one point.
- 6:23Speaker 1: five to three percent a target revenue upto as much as five percent.
- 6:27Speaker 0: Yeah sometimes even five percent And that immediately compresses your margin in year one.
- 6:31Speaker 0: it's
- 6:31Speaker 1: brutal But here's the thing, you can't execute any of this.
- 6:35Speaker 1: Not the TSA extraction not The third company model.
- 6:39Speaker 1: without the right leadership in place.
- 6:41Speaker 0: You really can't which perfectly explains the massive executive turnover we're seeing post deal.
- 6:46Speaker 1: It's staggering.
- 6:47Speaker 1: Seventy-three percent of founder CEOs are replaced within eighteen months of a PE deal.
- 6:52Speaker 1: seventy three percent.
- 6:54Speaker 0: it's wild.
- 6:55Speaker 0: But the primary reason, according to sources is that nobody actually taught these founders new board dynamics.
- 7:01Speaker 1: Right they're being graded on a completely new rubric
- 7:03Speaker 0: Exactly!
- 7:04Speaker 0: They know their product and market but don't how manage a highly leveraged PE Board.
- 7:08Speaker 1: So How do successful ones operate differently?
- 7:11Speaker 0: Well... The best PE-backed CEOs.
- 7:15Speaker 0: They treat that one hundred day plan as a ceiling, not just goal.
- 7:18Speaker 1: Okay how so?
- 7:20Speaker 0: They arrive on Day One with their views of the legacy leadership and cost base already formed.
- 7:25Speaker 0: they aren't going onto listening to her
- 7:27Speaker 1: Right!
- 7:27Speaker 1: They're executing immediately
- 7:28Speaker 1: Exactly!!
- 7:29Speaker 0: Look at Akoya
- 7:30Speaker 0: Capital!!!
- 7:31Speaker 0: They were highlighted as prime example an operator-led firm built around twenty two platforms.
- 7:37Speaker 0: half billion deployed.
- 7:38Speaker 0: heavily prioritized actual operators over pure financial experts
- 7:43Speaker 1: which is smart.
- 7:44Speaker 1: But you know, hiring is arguably the highest leverage move in PE right?
- 7:49Speaker 1: A great team can overcome a week strategy but not the other way around
- 7:52Speaker 0: hundred percent.
- 7:53Speaker 1: so with all this focus on the CEO our sponsors kind of blinding themselves to the actual MVP of The C-suite.
- 7:59Speaker 1: I'm talking about the CFO.
- 8:01Speaker 1: Oh!
- 8:01Speaker 0: The CFO role has completely changed.
- 8:03Speaker 0: that's a huge point Right?
- 8:05Speaker 1: i mean there was That Great example shared About a CFO who drove one point two billion dollars In EBITDA growth.
- 8:10Speaker 0: Yes
- 8:12Speaker 1: and they credited the entire success to underwriting every single major commitment rather than just acting like a historian reporting on the past.
- 8:20Speaker 0: That's the difference, A traditional CFO tells you what happened last quarter.
- 8:24Speaker 0: A PECFO has to underwrite the future.
- 8:27Speaker 0: They have to tie every operational move directly to the exit multiple.
- 8:32Speaker 1: But that intensity is burning people out, isn't it?
- 8:34Speaker 1: Oh
- 8:34Speaker 0: absolutely Proven PECFOs are burning and leaving within twelve-to eighteen months right now Which
- 8:40Speaker 1: is crazy turnover for such a critical role.
- 8:43Speaker 0: It's forcing PE firms to rely on interim CFOs.
- 8:47Speaker 0: just keep value creation moving or they're having to hire first-time PECFOs because the veteran talent pool is just tapped out.
- 8:55Speaker 1: So if you in capital has stretched this thin and there's all this extreme pressure on operations, where do firms turn?
- 9:01Speaker 0: They turned into infrastructure specifically AI.
- 9:05Speaker 1: right embedding AI directly into the portfolio And the timeline on this as shifting aggressively.
- 9:09Speaker 0: Yeah Ai and private equity is rapidly moving away from those You know.
- 9:13Speaker 0: twenty twenty five proof of concept pilots There are going straight into production deployment for twenty twenty six.
- 9:18Speaker 1: But there's friction, too.
- 9:20Speaker 1: McKinsey just found that while seventy percent of employees actually feel ready to use AI...
- 9:24Speaker 0: Only twenty-seven percent of leaders believe their organization is prepared?
- 9:28Speaker 1: Exactly!
- 9:29Speaker 1: But despite that… There's a massive capital arms race happening.
- 9:33Speaker 0: Huge!!
- 9:34Speaker 0: Look at Blackstone and Hellman & Freedmen – they just farmed
- 9:37Speaker 0: ODE!!!
- 9:38Speaker 0: It's one point five billion dollar AI joint venture with Enthropic.
- 9:43Speaker 1: A billion and a half dollars!
- 9:45Speaker 0: And OpenAI immediately countered, With four billion-dollar venture backed by TPG.
- 9:51Speaker 1: Okay but let me ask you this because there's a lot of hype here Are these PE firms basically just buying really expensive sauce licenses for their portcos?
- 9:59Speaker 1: Or is it like fundamental rewiring the business model?
- 10:03Speaker 1: That's
- 10:03Speaker 0: The Billion Dollar Question.
- 10:04Speaker 0: Right
- 10:05Speaker 1: Because I think about historical shift from say paper ledgers to the first ERP systems, that changed everything.
- 10:11Speaker 1: Is this THAT big?
- 10:12Speaker 0: The hard evidence suggests it actually is a fundamental rewiring!
- 10:15Speaker 1: Really how
- 10:16Speaker 1: so?!
- 10:17Speaker 1: Well
- 10:17Speaker 0: with ODE their engineers are literally physically embedded at places like Citroen Cooperman building proprietary client portals.
- 10:25Speaker 0: Yeah they're at Baker-Tilly US Physically mapping and automating tax and audit workflows.
- 10:30Speaker 0: They aren't just selling software They're changing the production line.
- 10:34Speaker 1: And it's not just the mega funds doing this, yeah onyx labs Just launched an egenic operating system for everything from diligence all The way through to exit
- 10:43Speaker 0: Right, end-to-end.
- 10:44Speaker 1: And supply... this is a great example.
- 10:46Speaker 1: they're automating accounts receivable to target those crazy forty five to sixty day plus DSOs that are so common in manufacturing and distribution
- 10:54Speaker 0: which goes right back what we said at the start.
- 10:56Speaker 0: cash generation yeah if you can automate AR and drop your DSO by thirty days The
- 11:01Speaker 1: working capital UNLock is
- 11:02Speaker 0: massive.
- 11:03Speaker 0: Exactly it's all about getting that DPI.
- 11:06Speaker 1: So summarizing all of these entire industry is violently pivoting toward execution.
- 11:11Speaker 1: The financial engineering era has closed, and it's all about the operators now.
- 11:15Speaker 0: A hundred percent!
- 11:16Speaker 0: You have to be able to actually run the business...
- 11:19Speaker 1: Which leads me into this final kind of provocative thought for you to mull over.
- 11:23Speaker 1: We've talked extensively today about building platforms and integrating targets right?
- 11:27Speaker 1: Yeah But consider this data point from the sources.
- 11:30Speaker 1: Right Now landscaping consolidation is running almost entirely through bolt-ons Not new platforms.
- 11:37Speaker 0: Interesting,
- 11:37Speaker 1: why?
- 11:38Speaker 1: Because most platform-ready targets out there simply lack a strong leadership bench.
- 11:44Speaker 1: So it really makes you question How are you evaluating the leadership bench strength of your next platform acquisition?
- 11:50Speaker 1: because if it's not they're none Of this works.
- 11:52Speaker 0: that is exactly The right question to be asking right now
- 11:55Speaker 1: If you enjoyed this episode.
- 11:56Speaker 1: new episodes drop every two weeks.
- 11:58Speaker 1: also check our other editions on PE Fundraising, PE, Exit Strategies, Venture Capital, M&A and Strategy & Consulting.
- 12:06Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us!
- 12:07Speaker 1: And make sure you're subscribed.