Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / PANIC DAY: What Level of Freak-Out is Appropriate for YOUR Investments?

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PANIC DAY: What Level of Freak-Out is Appropriate for YOUR Investments? · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  We are here.
• 0:01
  It is panic day.
• 0:02
  Yes,
• 0:02
  panic day
• 0:04
  has arrived.
• 0:05
  I will let you know
• 0:06
  exact precisely
• 0:08
  how much you should be freaking out
• 0:10
  when it comes to the upcoming midterms.
• 0:11
  I'll also share some of my prediction pain
• 0:13
  when it comes to uh Trump's very short tenured press secretary,
• 0:17
  and I've got a little pushback planned for the claim that prediction markets
• 0:21
  are just gambling.
• 0:22
  We'll get into that and so much more coming up
• 0:24
  on Predictable
• 0:25
  with Stu.
• 0:41
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:43
  It is I,
• 0:44
  Stu,
• 0:44
  conveniently the host of the program here to host it,
• 0:47
  uh,
• 0:48
  here in solidarity with Jalen Hurts,
• 0:50
  uh,
• 0:50
  today as,
• 0:51
  uh,
• 0:51
  my Philadelphia Eagles going through a little bit of tough time.
• 0:52
  I'm not sure if you heard anybody about that.
• 0:54
  We don't have too much time for that today,
• 0:55
  unfortunately,
• 0:56
  because it's panic day.
• 0:57
  It's a big day,
• 0:57
  15 days
• 0:59
  until the midterm elections.
• 1:00
  Early voting is already happening in 30 states.
• 1:03
  One of them,
• 1:04
  Texas.
• 1:05
  How do I know that?
• 1:06
  Got 433,000 texts today about it.
• 1:09
  Hey,
• 1:10
  did you know that
• 1:11
  you could vote today?
• 1:12
  Hey,
• 1:12
  did you know?
• 1:13
  Are you,
• 1:14
  are you gonna?
• 1:14
  All right,
• 1:15
  I got it.
• 1:16
  Thank you so much.
• 1:17
  Uh,
• 1:17
  October 19th is the day Alaska,
• 1:19
  Arkansas,
• 1:20
  Colorado,
• 1:21
  Connecticut,
• 1:21
  South Carolina,
• 1:22
  and Texas
• 1:23
  all start up today.
• 1:24
  Much more
• 1:25
  coming up later in the week.
• 1:26
  Um,
• 1:26
  I wanna start with this,
• 1:28
  uh,
• 1:28
  fundraising data coming from the down ballot,
• 1:30
  uh,
• 1:30
  the Morning Digest,
• 1:31
  the,
• 1:32
  uh,
• 1:32
  Democrats just crushed Republicans in fundraising
• 1:34
  and whether they're weathering GOP's onslaught.
• 1:36
  This is,
• 1:36
  uh,
• 1:37
  data that comes,
• 1:38
  I'm gonna read you some of this.
• 1:40
  New disclosures compiled by the down ballot show
• 1:42
  that Democrats running in next month's elections,
• 1:45
  along with independents,
• 1:46
  campaigning with Democratic support,
• 1:47
  by the way,
• 1:48
  that just means Democrats
• 1:50
  for those people in Idaho,
• 1:52
  South Dakota,
• 1:53
  uh,
• 1:54
  Nebraska,
• 1:55
  and,
• 1:56
  uh,
• 1:56
  where's the other one?
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  Idaho,
• 1:58
  Idaho,
• 1:59
  Nebraska,
• 2:00
  South Dakota,
• 2:00
  and Montana.
• 2:02
  If you're in one of those states,
• 2:03
  guess what?
• 2:03
  They're just Democrats.
• 2:04
  Um,
• 2:04
  new disclosures compiled
• 2:06
  say that the Democrats hauled in $499 million
• 2:11
  from July 1st to September 30th.
• 2:14
  GOP
• 2:15
  194.
• 2:17
  499
• 2:19
  to 194.
• 2:23
  499
• 2:25
  to 194.
• 2:28
  That is a big gain.
• 2:29
  Democrats will go into the final month of the race with more cash available,
• 2:33
  $538 million to $392 million.
• 2:36
  Republican super PACs are the only way
• 2:38
  that Republicans are fighting back against this.
• 2:40
  They are winning the super PAC battle by a lot.
• 2:43
  A new report
• 2:44
  was published on Friday Ad Impact revealed that Republicans had spent
• 2:47
  or booked $242 million compared to $101 million for Democrats.
• 2:52
  Um,
• 2:52
  in Texas,
• 2:53
  for example,
• 2:54
  um,
• 2:55
  now
• 2:55
  they do have,
• 2:56
  so what you're having is the donations are all going to Democrats.
• 2:59
  That is a measure of enthusiasm,
• 3:00
  should worry you if you happen to be
• 3:02
  someone who's rooting for conservatives or Republicans in some of these races.
• 3:05
  On the other side,
• 3:06
  a lot of,
• 3:07
  uh,
• 3:07
  big,
• 3:07
  uh,
• 3:07
  big pockets are coming in and saying,
• 3:09
  OK,
• 3:09
  we're gonna fund these
• 3:10
  super PACs
• 3:11
  to even the playing field a little bit.
• 3:13
  Elon Musk being kind of preeminent among them,
• 3:15
  uh,
• 3:16
  hundreds of millions of dollars being poured into these elections.
• 3:19
  The,
• 3:19
  the issue with that,
• 3:21
  cause you,
• 3:21
  you can even up spending doing it that way.
• 3:23
  The problem is,
• 3:24
  of course,
• 3:25
  the government wants to get
• 3:27
  a favorable treatment for themselves.
• 3:29
  So they've all put into,
• 3:30
  into the rules,
• 3:31
  uh,
• 3:32
  an opportunity for them to advertise at ridiculously low prices,
• 3:35
  uh,
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  because
• 3:37
  they're dirtbags,
• 3:38
  right?
• 3:38
  That's what,
• 3:38
  uh,
• 3:39
  that's what government officials typically are.
• 3:41
  So they have put into themselves,
• 3:42
  hey,
• 3:43
  what if we just run ads for ourselves,
• 3:44
  we should be able to pay like 1/8 the cost.
• 3:47
  Uh,
• 3:47
  now,
• 3:48
  a 1/8 obviously sounds a little bit ridiculous,
• 3:50
  but that's what happens is you have a situation where the
• 3:52
  super PAC money comes in and has to buy at market rates
• 3:55
  where politicians get to pay a lot less.
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  Let me give you an example of that cause I said,
• 3:59
  you know,
• 3:59
  1/8 obviously a little ridiculous.
• 4:00
  We have actual numbers for this.
• 4:02
  Uh,
• 4:02
  for example,
• 4:02
  the AP reported last month that Texas had to pay,
• 4:04
  uh,
• 4:05
  Texas PAC,
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  which is the Pro-Paxton Group,
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  had to spend $450,000 in September to air a
• 4:10
  single ad in Austin during a football game.
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  9 times
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  as much as Telerico.
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  So,
• 4:18
  1/8,
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  obviously ridiculous because it's actually 1/9,
• 4:21
  at least in some cases.
• 4:23
  1/9.
• 4:24
  So the money,
• 4:25
  these money numbers that you'll hear from uh super PAC groups
• 4:28
  are impressive,
• 4:29
  and I'm glad people are doing it,
• 4:31
  but it's a lot harder for that money to spread around.
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  Uh,
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  the money's coming in directly to the campaign's much easier to spend,
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  much lower prices.
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  And that brings us to panic day.
• 4:40
  Yes,
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  it's panic day.
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  A lot of people asked me.
• 4:44
  They said,
• 4:44
  hey,
• 4:45
  is it time to panic
• 4:47
  about this election?
• 4:48
  And I said,
• 4:48
  no,
• 4:49
  no,
• 4:49
  it is not time to panic.
• 4:50
  I'll tell you when the time to panic is
• 4:52
  October 19th.
• 4:53
  Now that served a couple of purposes.
• 4:54
  Number one,
• 4:55
  made me patient
• 4:56
  with my prediction market positions and my electoral hopes.
• 4:59
  But number two,
• 5:00
  it also gave me an excuse to not talk about it for a couple of weeks.
• 5:03
  Unfortunately,
• 5:04
  the way the calendar works is eventually October 19th comes up.
• 5:08
  And it came up today.
• 5:09
  Yes,
• 5:10
  October 19th
• 5:11
  is
• 5:12
  panic day.
• 5:14
  We are here.
• 5:15
  It is time
• 5:17
  to freak out,
• 5:17
  or is it?
• 5:18
  We came up with a DEFCON scale.
• 5:20
  DEFCON 5 being,
• 5:21
  look,
• 5:21
  everything's totally fine.
• 5:22
  It's peace time.
• 5:23
  No panic at all.
• 5:24
  Zero panic whatsoever.
• 5:26
  DEFCON 4,
• 5:27
  a little bit more panic,
• 5:28
  DEFCON 3 more,
• 5:29
  DEFCON 2,
• 5:29
  holy crap,
• 5:30
  lots of panic.
• 5:30
  DEFCON 10 my God,
• 5:31
  we're in a nuclear war.
• 5:34
  So when it comes to the elections,
• 5:35
  if you happen to be a conservative or a Republican,
• 5:39
  I would say,
• 5:40
  uh,
• 5:40
  panic day,
• 5:41
  uh,
• 5:41
  DEFCON scale will bring you to DEFCON 2.
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  DEFCON 2 is the highest,
• 5:46
  second highest level
• 5:47
  of alert,
• 5:48
  and you could see I looked very panicked in that particular photo.
• 5:51
  Um,
• 5:52
  it,
• 5:52
  why DEFCON 2?
• 5:55
  This is a a real threat.
• 5:58
  It's a real threat
• 6:00
  to conservative governance if that's something that you care about,
• 6:03
  Republican majorities,
• 6:04
  if that's something that you care about,
• 6:06
  even to
• 6:08
  red states that you'd never thought you'd lose.
• 6:10
  There's a real threat there.
• 6:12
  This is not hype from the media solely,
• 6:14
  though they are very excited about it and,
• 6:17
  and wanna tell you about it all the time.
• 6:19
  But those,
• 6:19
  these risks are real.
• 6:20
  There's something that actually matters.
• 6:21
  And if you happen to be a person who wants to be involved in the elections,
• 6:24
  if you happen to be a person who wants to send out,
• 6:26
  let's say,
• 6:26
  5000 annoying text messages per day to remind me
• 6:29
  to vote early,
• 6:30
  um,
• 6:31
  now's probably the time to get on board with one of those,
• 6:34
  uh,
• 6:35
  efforts if you want to.
• 6:37
  Um,
• 6:38
  volunteer,
• 6:39
  if you thought about making phone calls for your party,
• 6:41
  if you thought about,
• 6:42
  um,
• 6:43
  donating,
• 6:43
  if you thought about doing all those things that we do
• 6:46
  to help these parties along,
• 6:48
  so that they can later disappoint us.
• 6:50
  Um,
• 6:51
  now is the time to do it,
• 6:52
  because I,
• 6:53
  I can tell you this,
• 6:54
  I've gone through a lot of data for this election.
• 6:55
  I've watched a lot of these elections.
• 6:57
  I've seen them for years and years and years,
• 6:58
  and I've seen all the cycles,
• 6:59
  I've seen all the claims,
• 7:00
  I've seen all of it.
• 7:05
  What we're looking at here.
• 7:06
  Is a likely a bad result for Republicans
• 7:09
  that has a large Overton window of possibilities.
• 7:14
  Inside of that Overton window of possibilities,
• 7:16
  and we'll get into this in a second,
• 7:18
  is
• 7:19
  a catastrophic outcome for Republicans where states
• 7:23
  like,
• 7:24
  uh,
• 7:24
  well,
• 7:24
  I'll give you the examples in a minute,
• 7:26
  bright red states.
• 7:27
  Are
• 7:28
  theoretically in play.
• 7:33
  I'll explain this in a second.
• 7:35
  I want to give you a different FCON as well for prediction market positions,
• 7:38
  cause that's what this show is.
• 7:39
  It's about elections,
• 7:40
  it's about prediction markets.
• 7:42
  If you're in prediction market positions and you
• 7:43
  took the types of positions that I have taken
• 7:46
  over the last 4 to 5 months or so.
• 7:51
  I'm gonna put you in DEFCON level 3,
• 7:53
  a little bit less
• 7:54
  than if you care about the outcome.
• 7:56
  DEFCON 3.
• 7:58
  For prediction markets.
• 8:00
  What does,
• 8:01
  uh,
• 8:02
  3,
• 8:03
  tell you?
• 8:04
  Well,
• 8:04
  it kind of tells you,
• 8:05
  look,
• 8:05
  there's real risk here,
• 8:07
  and you should do some things around the fringes
• 8:09
  to protect yourself from the worst possible outcomes.
• 8:12
  I,
• 8:12
  again,
• 8:12
  don't think
• 8:13
  there's an over 50% chance
• 8:15
  of these outcomes.
• 8:17
  I don't think there's an
• 8:18
  over
• 8:19
  25% chance of these outcomes,
• 8:21
  but it's not 1%.
• 8:23
  It's not 2%,
• 8:24
  it's higher than that.
• 8:25
  These are actual possibilities that we could see really big changes
• 8:30
  in our government and
• 8:31
  to the point that it's even
• 8:33
  threatening some of my prediction market positions
• 8:36
  that I took
• 8:37
  with a giant wall of protection around bad outcomes.
• 8:42
  Remember,
• 8:42
  I don't typically go into markets where I think it's a 50/50 shot.
• 8:46
  Uh,
• 8:46
  that's not how I play these things.
• 8:47
  I go into markets where I think I've got an 80% chance,
• 8:50
  and I can buy it for 60%.
• 8:52
  I'll go in where I think I have a 90% chance that I could buy it for 75%.
• 8:55
  I like doing that.
• 8:57
  I don't like going into 50/50 races cause I don't like losing.
• 9:01
  I,
• 9:01
  you know,
• 9:01
  I,
• 9:02
  I,
• 9:02
  I,
• 9:03
  I see some of these other traders that I follow,
• 9:06
  and,
• 9:06
  and they,
• 9:06
  I,
• 9:06
  they're much more adult than I am in some ways,
• 9:09
  and that they can handle it better.
• 9:10
  Like,
• 9:10
  I,
• 9:11
  they can handle losing.
• 9:12
  They realize,
• 9:12
  OK,
• 9:13
  I can lose 5 or 6 in a row and then I'll gain more.
• 9:15
  I don't like doing that.
• 9:16
  I like it going up.
• 9:16
  I like the whole margin.
• 9:17
  I like the,
• 9:18
  the ledger going up.
• 9:20
  Up and to the right.
• 9:21
  That's what I wanna see.
• 9:22
  And yes,
• 9:22
  I understand in that process,
• 9:24
  I'm gonna have some losses.
• 9:25
  You're gonna have that all the time.
• 9:26
  Um,
• 9:27
  but you wanna protect yourself against
• 9:29
  something that's going to reverse your progress,
• 9:31
  cause I hate that,
• 9:31
  it's annoying.
• 9:32
  Frankly,
• 9:32
  it's annoying.
• 9:33
  I don't like losing money,
• 9:34
  and I don't want you to lose money.
• 9:35
  One of the things that we do here is try to bring you through elections like this,
• 9:39
  even when they get a little shaky
• 9:41
  and find safe positions,
• 9:42
  safe harbors for your money to grow.
• 9:44
  And I think we found a lot of those,
• 9:46
  but there are some around the fringes that I'm a little concerned about,
• 9:49
  and I went through and did a very deep dive analysis of this,
• 9:52
  and I wanna kinda
• 9:53
  Go through this a little bit,
• 9:54
  rather than just give you the results,
• 9:55
  because I want you to be able to do this for yourself,
• 9:57
  if you're in prediction markets,
• 9:58
  if you're looking at your portfolio,
• 10:00
  how do you walk through,
• 10:01
  how do you examine this
• 10:03
  step by step?
• 10:04
  How do you kind of think through all of this for yourself?
• 10:07
  Now,
• 10:10
  You have to start asking yourself tough questions.
• 10:13
  And
• 10:14
  nobody likes this part of it,
• 10:16
  because once you commit to a position,
• 10:18
  what you wanna do is just watch it win.
• 10:21
  That's what we all want to do.
• 10:22
  And there's also a temptation,
• 10:24
  oddly,
• 10:24
  on the other side of that,
• 10:26
  is to go down with the ship.
• 10:28
  A lot of times that's how I'm tempted to be,
• 10:30
  is to say,
• 10:30
  OK,
• 10:31
  I,
• 10:31
  I got this position before.
• 10:33
  Yeah,
• 10:33
  it's in worst case,
• 10:34
  but that,
• 10:34
  that money's already been spent.
• 10:35
  And I'm going down with the ship.
• 10:36
  I'm sticking through it.
• 10:37
  I'm sticking through that position.
• 10:38
  And that might be
• 10:39
  the right case in some circumstances,
• 10:41
  but it also might not be.
• 10:43
  Sometimes you should get on the lifeboat,
• 10:45
  and even though the lifeboat's not nice,
• 10:46
  as nice as your previous boat,
• 10:48
  at least you're still floating.
• 10:50
  That is
• 10:52
  the type of tough consideration you have to take in a moment
• 10:54
  like this,
• 10:55
  where
• 10:56
  really negative possibilities are possible.
• 10:59
  So,
• 11:00
  one of the main things you need to do is ask yourself a core question,
• 11:04
  and you can do this,
• 11:05
  you really should do this in every one of your positions.
• 11:07
  I did this this weekend,
• 11:09
  but also
• 11:10
  went through and really focused on like my 20 biggest positions,
• 11:13
  because that's probably 60 to 70% of my portfolio,
• 11:18
  um.
• 11:18
  So that's where I focused most of my analysis.
• 11:21
  Um,
• 11:21
  and you have to ask yourself the question.
• 11:24
  Look at the market
• 11:26
  and what you know
• 11:27
  about a particular race.
• 11:28
  And then ask yourself,
• 11:30
  would I buy
• 11:32
  this position
• 11:33
  at this size
• 11:35
  today?
• 11:37
  Would you buy this position
• 11:39
  at this size
• 11:41
  today?
• 11:42
  You might say,
• 11:43
  well,
• 11:43
  I don't have to buy it today,
• 11:44
  I bought it 3 months ago,
• 11:46
  and that's true.
• 11:47
  But if you don't think it's a value today,
• 11:50
  There should be a consideration of one,
• 11:52
  resizing it,
• 11:53
  maybe making it smaller.
• 11:56
  Two,
• 11:57
  maybe dumping it completely.
• 11:58
  Because if you bought something where,
• 12:00
  like,
• 12:00
  if you bought Graham Plattner to be,
• 12:01
  uh,
• 12:02
  the senator of Maine
• 12:03
  at 80 cents because you were convinced,
• 12:05
  and then he's now,
• 12:06
  uh,
• 12:06
  uh,
• 12:06
  he's got charges of rape going on and he's down to 20 cents.
• 12:11
  It might be time
• 12:13
  To sell that contract and save the 20 cents.
• 12:16
  That's an extreme example.
• 12:17
  Much,
• 12:17
  most of these are much,
• 12:18
  much harder to deal with.
• 12:20
  So,
• 12:21
  I say that,
• 12:21
  um,
• 12:22
  because I went through my entire order book this weekend,
• 12:24
  all my positions,
• 12:26
  and I,
• 12:27
  I looked at
• 12:28
  those,
• 12:29
  I looked at some of them that were just,
• 12:30
  I thought interesting
• 12:31
  to you as well.
• 12:33
  And
• 12:34
  one of,
• 12:35
  one of the reasons why we built PredictableShow.com and why we put all the tools
• 12:39
  that are on PredictableShow.com is so that you
• 12:41
  can do this type of analysis yourself.
• 12:43
  You can look at this and,
• 12:44
  and these are,
• 12:45
  you know,
• 12:45
  people are like,
• 12:45
  oh gosh,
• 12:46
  so you,
• 12:46
  you,
• 12:46
  you built this election model.
• 12:47
  Why you do that for clicks?
• 12:49
  Well,
• 12:49
  I mean,
• 12:50
  I would like you to click on it,
• 12:51
  right?
• 12:51
  I would like you to get value out of your membership so you stick around.
• 12:54
  I know lots of you are and I appreciate that.
• 12:57
  Um,
• 12:57
  but
• 12:58
  that's not why I built them.
• 12:59
  Selfishly,
• 12:59
  I built them for me
• 13:01
  because I'm in all these markets.
• 13:03
  And I need to have tools to help me navigate them.
• 13:06
  It's really easy to get vibes.
• 13:08
  It's really easy to look at something and say,
• 13:09
  well,
• 13:09
  I think that person's gonna win,
• 13:10
  but do,
• 13:11
  have you tested that?
• 13:11
  Have you pushed yourself
• 13:13
  on that prediction?
• 13:14
  Have you really thought it through?
• 13:15
  Have you pushed yourself all the way to where you might be today?
• 13:18
  And that's an important thing.
• 13:20
  So asking yourself,
• 13:21
  would you buy this
• 13:22
  at this price
• 13:23
  in this size is big.
• 13:24
  Because you might say,
• 13:25
  well,
• 13:25
  I would take a flyer at this at,
• 13:27
  you know,
• 13:27
  50 cents.
• 13:27
  I bought it at 70 cents,
• 13:28
  now it's at 50 cents,
• 13:29
  but I'd take a flyer at 50.
• 13:30
  Would you have a big position?
• 13:32
  Cause you had a big position when it was at 70.
• 13:34
  In theory,
• 13:34
  if it's a great value,
• 13:36
  maybe you're buying even more at 50.
• 13:38
  Should you buy more?
• 13:39
  Should you dump some?
• 13:42
  Now,
• 13:42
  with all these tools,
• 13:43
  and this is how I went through this,
• 13:45
  we have the PMC,
• 13:46
  which is the predictable midterm consensus.
• 13:48
  This is a tool,
• 13:49
  it's an election model built.
• 13:50
  We market,
• 13:51
  we modeled all 35 races,
• 13:53
  and the two control,
• 13:55
  uh,
• 13:55
  House,
• 13:55
  House control,
• 13:56
  Senate control,
• 13:57
  uh,
• 13:57
  for you to see.
• 13:58
  Free subscribers can see House and Senate,
• 13:59
  uh,
• 13:59
  if you want all the Senate races,
• 14:01
  uh,
• 14:01
  you can be a premium subscriber.
• 14:02
  We would love you to join PredictableShow.com.
• 14:05
  We built that.
• 14:06
  We gave you the Republican freak out index,
• 14:09
  which is,
• 14:10
  uh,
• 14:10
  a,
• 14:10
  uh,
• 14:11
  uh,
• 14:11
  separate from the polls,
• 14:12
  separate from the candidate quality,
• 14:14
  separate for the prediction markets,
• 14:15
  all that to the side.
• 14:16
  Let's look at the
• 14:17
  underlying metrics that are causing Republicans' problems,
• 14:20
  and we laid out six big ones.
• 14:22
  We then measured them state by state.
• 14:24
  Where,
• 14:24
  where would be the biggest reason to freak out?
• 14:26
  Where would be the least reason to freak out if you happen to be
• 14:29
  a Republican or Republican candidate right now?
• 14:32
  Um,
• 14:32
  that's available as well.
• 14:34
  Um,
• 14:34
  uh,
• 14:35
  we did it on the show here.
• 14:36
  I think we posted it on social media as well.
• 14:38
  You can check that out.
• 14:39
  I can tell you from memory that the number one state in the entire union
• 14:43
  for freak out potential for all these underlying metrics was Texas.
• 14:47
  Uh,
• 14:47
  Iowa was high,
• 14:48
  uh,
• 14:48
  Michigan was high.
• 14:50
  Um,
• 14:50
  a few other states were high,
• 14:51
  some others were low.
• 14:53
  So that built into it.
• 14:55
  And I,
• 14:55
  you know,
• 14:55
  I,
• 14:55
  I built this stuff so you could go and kind of do this analysis on your own.
• 15:01
  Of whatever positions you have.
• 15:02
  So this is kind of how I went through it.
• 15:03
  I'm just gonna give you a quick rundown of my process here,
• 15:06
  um,
• 15:06
  which was,
• 15:07
  number one,
• 15:07
  I took all of every single position I had,
• 15:10
  put it in a nice little,
• 15:11
  uh,
• 15:11
  spreadsheet type of situation so I could see it all together.
• 15:14
  I did a combination,
• 15:15
  for example,
• 15:15
  I made sure.
• 15:16
  If I have a pro,
• 15:18
  uh,
• 15:18
  Kottech position
• 15:19
  and an anti-Drazen position in,
• 15:22
  uh,
• 15:22
  in,
• 15:22
  uh,
• 15:22
  Oregon,
• 15:23
  I combine those because they're the same output,
• 15:25
  right?
• 15:26
  Um,
• 15:26
  so I make sure I understand the size.
• 15:28
  Sometimes you have two positions of equal size
• 15:30
  on two different sides of the same market,
• 15:32
  and so,
• 15:33
  if they resolve,
• 15:34
  they're gonna go,
• 15:35
  uh,
• 15:35
  very predictable directions.
• 15:37
  So why not understand that as one big position.
• 15:40
  So I did that.
• 15:41
  Um.
• 15:42
  I did the test as to whether I would buy this now.
• 15:44
  I went through that.
• 15:45
  One of the ways that I do that,
• 15:47
  um,
• 15:47
  is
• 15:48
  for me,
• 15:49
  take all the positions,
• 15:50
  take out what the market is at now.
• 15:52
  As if I don't know it,
• 15:53
  and some of them you remember,
• 15:54
  but a lot of them you don't when you have several positions in different markets.
• 15:57
  And I
• 15:58
  manually go through
• 16:00
  and say,
• 16:00
  OK,
• 16:00
  uh,
• 16:01
  I think
• 16:01
  that has a 70% chance of happening.
• 16:03
  That has a 75% chance.
• 16:05
  She has an 80% chance of winning,
• 16:07
  he has a 92% chance of winning,
• 16:08
  whatever the numbers are.
• 16:10
  And you put those down,
• 16:11
  and then you can compare them to what the markets actually are.
• 16:13
  Because a lot of times what you'll find is,
• 16:15
  I'm actually more optimistic on this.
• 16:16
  I should buy more of this contract,
• 16:18
  which I did do a little bit of this weekend.
• 16:20
  Um,
• 16:21
  you,
• 16:22
  uh,
• 16:22
  make sure that you understand certain races are correlated.
• 16:25
  That is a big mistake that people forget.
• 16:27
  Like they're,
• 16:28
  they'll say,
• 16:28
  well,
• 16:28
  there's,
• 16:28
  I've got 7 positions on Republicans,
• 16:30
  they can't lose all 7.
• 16:32
  Well,
• 16:32
  I mean,
• 16:32
  ask Kamala Harris if you can lose all 7 swing states.
• 16:34
  How does that work out for you?
• 16:35
  You can.
• 16:36
  And when it,
• 16:37
  when it tends to go one way for one party.
• 16:39
  Uh,
• 16:40
  a lot of times you will sweep those,
• 16:42
  uh,
• 16:42
  those swing states,
• 16:43
  not every time,
• 16:44
  but a lot of times you will.
• 16:45
  You have to understand that those movements are correlated,
• 16:47
  they move together,
• 16:49
  and if you think of them as just kind of coin flips
• 16:50
  over and over again that have nothing to do with each other,
• 16:53
  you will get burned.
• 16:54
  Um,
• 16:55
  run
• 16:55
  a bunch of scenarios that test where you are.
• 16:58
  I ran them on,
• 16:59
  uh,
• 17:00
  what if all the favorites win?
• 17:01
  Where does that leave me?
• 17:02
  What if all the underdogs win?
• 17:04
  Where does that leave me?
• 17:05
  What if all the Republicans win?
• 17:06
  Where does that leave you?
• 17:06
  Where do all the Democrats win?
• 17:07
  Where does that leave you?
• 17:08
  What if everyone who's,
• 17:09
  uh,
• 17:09
  90% favorite wins,
• 17:11
  and I lose everything below that?
• 17:12
  What happens if only my long shots hit?
• 17:14
  I,
• 17:14
  I,
• 17:15
  I tested as many ways as I could,
• 17:16
  just so I could understand where I was.
• 17:18
  And I did find some imbalances,
• 17:19
  um,
• 17:20
  there,
• 17:20
  um,
• 17:21
  that I
• 17:21
  kind of wasn't 100% sure.
• 17:23
  What happens in a,
• 17:24
  in a,
• 17:24
  in a,
• 17:25
  in a market like this.
• 17:27
  With
• 17:27
  a a widely expected
• 17:30
  blue lien,
• 17:32
  is you tend to look at all these contracts and find value.
• 17:37
  Uh,
• 17:37
  on the side that isn't favored,
• 17:39
  for example,
• 17:40
  Republicans,
• 17:41
  the fact that you can get,
• 17:42
  uh,
• 17:42
  um,
• 17:42
  uh,
• 17:43
  something like Mississippi in the high 80s right now
• 17:46
  is so.
• 17:48
  Bizarre,
• 17:49
  right?
• 17:49
  Like,
• 17:50
  the fact that you can have that is so crazy
• 17:53
  that,
• 17:54
  uh,
• 17:54
  you know,
• 17:55
  you,
• 17:55
  you tend to want to jump on that,
• 17:56
  and I have jumped on a bunch of contracts like that,
• 17:59
  where I saw,
• 17:59
  I thought it was 95% and it was,
• 18:01
  you know,
• 18:02
  I was buying it at 90% and thinking I got great value.
• 18:04
  Well,
• 18:04
  now,
• 18:05
  maybe I think it's 90%,
• 18:06
  and there that value is no longer there,
• 18:08
  maybe I shouldn't have as big a position.
• 18:10
  Um,
• 18:11
  hedging your life is another part of this,
• 18:13
  and it's,
• 18:14
  you know,
• 18:15
  sometimes we'll call it an emotional hedge.
• 18:17
  I don't like that term because it acts like,
• 18:19
  uh,
• 18:19
  you know,
• 18:19
  uh,
• 18:20
  it's not real.
• 18:21
  I mean,
• 18:21
  it's like,
• 18:21
  oh gosh,
• 18:21
  you're just,
• 18:22
  your,
• 18:22
  your feelings.
• 18:24
  It's not that,
• 18:24
  right,
• 18:25
  especially with politics,
• 18:26
  it's not like that because these things actually affect you.
• 18:28
  If there is a Democratic Senate,
• 18:29
  I'm gonna have different tax rates potentially than if it's a Republican Senate.
• 18:33
  Um,
• 18:34
  it's gonna be different regulation changes.
• 18:35
  There's gonna be different policies that I care and don't care about.
• 18:37
  It's gonna affect my life in some way.
• 18:38
  That's why we care about
• 18:39
  politics so much.
• 18:40
  It's not because we care,
• 18:41
  we care about it like the sports,
• 18:43
  uh,
• 18:43
  that we watch.
• 18:44
  I mean,
• 18:44
  I,
• 18:45
  you know,
• 18:45
  as an Eagles fan,
• 18:45
  I care about that for God knows what reason.
• 18:47
  I,
• 18:48
  I,
• 18:48
  I don't know.
• 18:49
  Maybe that's the first question I'm gonna ask
• 18:51
  in heaven.
• 18:51
  When I,
• 18:52
  where I'm getting,
• 18:52
  by the way.
• 18:54
  Um,
• 18:55
  just so you know,
• 18:56
  um,
• 18:56
  but,
• 18:57
  uh,
• 18:57
  when I get up there,
• 18:57
  I'm like,
• 18:58
  hey,
• 18:58
  you know,
• 18:58
  by the way,
• 18:59
  how did I become an Eagles fan?
• 19:00
  I would love to know the answer to that,
• 19:02
  cause there's been some good times,
• 19:03
  but also some torturous times.
• 19:05
  Um,
• 19:06
  so it's not about necessarily just like hedging your emotions or your feelings.
• 19:09
  Um,
• 19:10
  it's,
• 19:10
  it's about
• 19:11
  understanding the world around you.
• 19:12
  And of course,
• 19:13
  if you,
• 19:13
  this is a different thing,
• 19:14
  and we'll get into this a little bit later,
• 19:15
  but I feel like you're a small business,
• 19:17
  you might have,
• 19:17
  you know,
• 19:17
  if you're,
• 19:18
  if you're an oil company,
• 19:19
  like
• 19:20
  100% you should be hedging your life here.
• 19:22
  Right?
• 19:23
  Because if,
• 19:23
  uh,
• 19:24
  the Democrats win,
• 19:25
  uh,
• 19:25
  there could be regulations,
• 19:27
  there could be laws passed,
• 19:28
  you know,
• 19:28
  etc.
• 19:28
  etc.
• 19:29
  etc.
• 19:29
  And then,
• 19:30
  um,
• 19:31
  and then you have to try to execute with,
• 19:32
  with,
• 19:32
  uh,
• 19:33
  uh,
• 19:33
  with discipline and size to conviction.
• 19:35
  So,
• 19:36
  um,
• 19:36
  sizing to conviction means how
• 19:38
  comfortable are you,
• 19:39
  how confident are you?
• 19:40
  If you're less confident than your current position states,
• 19:43
  you probably want to sell.
• 19:44
  And it's OK to take a loss in that process,
• 19:47
  and then executing with discipline is the hardest
• 19:48
  part because nobody wants to do this stuff.
• 19:50
  Nobody wants to go through that whole process and certainly on the other side,
• 19:52
  come out and say,
• 19:53
  gosh,
• 19:53
  what I did was wrong.
• 19:54
  I need to lose some money right now.
• 19:55
  That sucks,
• 19:57
  cause you know,
• 19:58
  there's a good chance that you hold on and by the end of the day,
• 20:00
  you actually wound up winning those positions.
• 20:02
  It's very possible.
• 20:04
  Um,
• 20:04
  so,
• 20:05
  let me give you a few different examples of where I landed on this stuff.
• 20:10
  I,
• 20:10
  I,
• 20:10
  I navigated through,
• 20:12
  there's more than this,
• 20:13
  but I'm gonna give you some highlights.
• 20:14
  My,
• 20:15
  of my biggest positions,
• 20:16
  I had,
• 20:17
  uh,
• 20:18
  Some positions that I'm totally fine with,
• 20:20
  still love,
• 20:21
  totally fine with.
• 20:21
  Let me give you a,
• 20:22
  it's a big list.
• 20:23
  Uh,
• 20:23
  Moody in Florida,
• 20:25
  Klobuchar,
• 20:25
  uh,
• 20:26
  Minnesota governor,
• 20:27
  Hochel,
• 20:27
  New York governor,
• 20:28
  not worried about that one.
• 20:29
  Cotton in the Senate,
• 20:30
  uh,
• 20:31
  in Arkansas,
• 20:32
  still fine with that.
• 20:32
  Rounds,
• 20:33
  South Dakota,
• 20:33
  fine with that.
• 20:34
  Letlow in Louisiana,
• 20:36
  Almay in Montana,
• 20:37
  fine with all those,
• 20:38
  uh,
• 20:39
  Ossoff in Georgia,
• 20:40
  Cooper in,
• 20:41
  uh,
• 20:41
  North Carolina.
• 20:42
  Donald's is an interesting one
• 20:44
  because I kind of wavered on that one a little bit,
• 20:47
  but I kept that in the one that I love.
• 20:48
  I really like the value of that one still.
• 20:51
  Pappas in North,
• 20:52
  uh,
• 20:52
  excuse me,
• 20:53
  um,
• 20:53
  New Hampshire,
• 20:54
  um,
• 20:55
  Risch in,
• 20:55
  uh,
• 20:56
  Idaho.
• 20:56
  I'm still fine with that one,
• 20:57
  even though some weird polling on that race,
• 20:59
  I'm still pretty fine with that.
• 21:00
  And Democratic control of the House.
• 21:02
  Like,
• 21:02
  I don't
• 21:03
  love the outcomes of those elections in,
• 21:05
  in many of those cases,
• 21:06
  but I do feel pretty confident in those positions,
• 21:08
  not gonna change,
• 21:09
  maybe even would grow some of them.
• 21:10
  Positions I like,
• 21:12
  these are positions I have that are in my top 20
• 21:14
  where I was like,
• 21:14
  you know what,
• 21:15
  I'm not going to change them.
• 21:16
  I don't feel scared about them.
• 21:18
  But,
• 21:19
  you know,
• 21:19
  I don't love them as much as some of those other positions.
• 21:21
  That would be Maisy in Oklahoma,
• 21:23
  uh,
• 21:23
  Pille in,
• 21:24
  uh,
• 21:24
  in Nebraska,
• 21:25
  and Flanagan
• 21:27
  in,
• 21:27
  Minnesota,
• 21:28
  that's been a weird race.
• 21:29
  Tafoy's done very well,
• 21:30
  very close.
• 21:31
  Flanagan's pretty bad,
• 21:32
  uh,
• 21:32
  as a candidate,
• 21:33
  I think.
• 21:33
  Tafoy is much better as an aesthetic candidate
• 21:36
  and with her campaign abilities,
• 21:38
  but of course it's a blue leaning state and it's gonna be tough,
• 21:40
  difficult for her to win there.
• 21:42
  But I still,
• 21:43
  I,
• 21:43
  I like those positions.
• 21:44
  The positions I'm iffy on,
• 21:45
  let me give you a couple of them.
• 21:46
  Kottech
• 21:47
  in Oregon.
• 21:50
  Hyde Smith
• 21:51
  in Mississippi,
• 21:52
  Hinson in,
• 21:53
  uh,
• 21:54
  Iowa,
• 21:54
  and Abbott in Texas.
• 21:56
  All four of them,
• 21:57
  I'm just,
• 21:57
  I'm nervous about a little bit.
• 21:59
  Kottek
• 22:00
  is in Oregon.
• 22:02
  She's a Democrat.
• 22:03
  This should be easy.
• 22:04
  Polling very,
• 22:04
  very close.
• 22:05
  I'm more nervous about it than I should be.
• 22:07
  Hyde Smith
• 22:08
  in Mississippi.
• 22:09
  There's no real polling that I believe that shows that race as being close.
• 22:14
  She is not the greatest candidate though,
• 22:16
  and she makes me nervous in the similar
• 22:18
  ways that Darlene Graham Nordone makes me nervous.
• 22:20
  I have a small position on her that I
• 22:22
  didn't bother changing cause it was pretty small,
• 22:24
  um,
• 22:24
  but,
• 22:25
  uh,
• 22:26
  yeah,
• 22:26
  uh,
• 22:27
  Hyde Smith.
• 22:27
  Uh,
• 22:28
  then there was Henson.
• 22:29
  Henson,
• 22:29
  I really like.
• 22:30
  I think she's a good candidate.
• 22:31
  I think she's done a good job in this race.
• 22:33
  She just has,
• 22:34
  she is very high.
• 22:35
  Iowa is very high on the Republican freak out index.
• 22:38
  The state,
• 22:38
  on the,
• 22:39
  the parts of that are,
• 22:40
  are dangerous there
• 22:41
  from,
• 22:42
  from her perspective,
• 22:43
  and I have a big position in that one.
• 22:45
  And then Abbott in Texas is,
• 22:46
  is another,
• 22:46
  is the 4th 1 on that list,
• 22:47
  which
• 22:48
  it's closer than I want it to be.
• 22:50
  I,
• 22:50
  I should love this in the 70s.
• 22:52
  Um,
• 22:52
  I should be buying more of it in the 70s.
• 22:55
  I,
• 22:55
  I'm not doing that necessarily because,
• 22:57
  number one,
• 22:58
  I'm more concerned about it than I should be.
• 23:01
  Uh,
• 23:01
  I still think he's going to win.
• 23:02
  By the way,
• 23:02
  I think all of those are gonna win.
• 23:05
  Kottek,
• 23:05
  Hyde Smith,
• 23:06
  Hinson,
• 23:06
  and Abbott,
• 23:07
  I still am confident they're gonna win.
• 23:08
  The question is,
• 23:09
  should I have that big of a position,
• 23:10
  um,
• 23:11
  or not?
• 23:11
  And then
• 23:12
  with Abbott,
• 23:13
  the other part of that is there is a major hedger life,
• 23:16
  uh,
• 23:16
  part of that.
• 23:17
  It's one thing for Tallarico to be senator here from Texas.
• 23:20
  That would suck because he's one bad vote in the Senate,
• 23:22
  in my opinion.
• 23:23
  Uh,
• 23:24
  Abbott losing here would actually affect my life negatively,
• 23:27
  uh,
• 23:27
  because,
• 23:28
  uh,
• 23:29
  you know,
• 23:30
  governors are gonna be more important to your day to day life than senators are.
• 23:32
  Um,
• 23:33
  that being said,
• 23:33
  I also did look at the,
• 23:35
  uh,
• 23:35
  Paxton race as well.
• 23:36
  I did trim that position pretty significantly.
• 23:38
  Now,
• 23:39
  I didn't have a big one.
• 23:40
  I,
• 23:40
  I think that's a 50/50 race at this point.
• 23:42
  I think you could say,
• 23:43
  you could look at and see some value potentially,
• 23:46
  um,
• 23:46
  and say,
• 23:47
  hey,
• 23:47
  he's at 38.
• 23:48
  If it's a 50/50 race,
• 23:49
  there's actually value there.
• 23:50
  It's true.
• 23:51
  I just don't,
• 23:52
  uh,
• 23:52
  it's another,
• 23:52
  it's partially hedge your life,
• 23:54
  partially,
• 23:54
  I'm just not confident he's going to win.
• 23:56
  Um,
• 23:56
  uh,
• 23:57
  the,
• 23:57
  the millions and millions of dollars that have poured into the
• 23:59
  state in these ads have not really moved it that much.
• 24:02
  That being said,
• 24:02
  even left-wing polling estimates,
• 24:05
  um,
• 24:05
  you know,
• 24:05
  when you're talking about,
• 24:06
  uh,
• 24:06
  polling averages by more left-leaning averages,
• 24:09
  and there's a wide swath,
• 24:10
  that's why we have the PMC,
• 24:12
  uh,
• 24:12
  wide swath of these suggestions,
• 24:14
  still see that as like a 2.5 point race.
• 24:16
  So very,
• 24:17
  very close.
• 24:17
  I still think Paxton has,
• 24:19
  uh,
• 24:19
  at least a 50% chance to win.
• 24:21
  Maybe a slight favorite,
• 24:22
  maybe a slight underdog,
• 24:23
  but we're in that realm.
• 24:24
  Um,
• 24:25
  but there's no real reason for me to have a big race there.
• 24:27
  I,
• 24:27
  I,
• 24:27
  I,
• 24:28
  because when you sell these positions,
• 24:30
  what you can do is deploy them into places where you feel better.
• 24:32
  I had a long list of positions I really,
• 24:34
  really like.
• 24:35
  Um,
• 24:35
  most of the positions,
• 24:36
  uh,
• 24:36
  that I have are up from when we took them,
• 24:38
  so that's positive.
• 24:40
  Um,
• 24:40
  but,
• 24:41
  uh,
• 24:41
  there is a,
• 24:42
  of course,
• 24:43
  a,
• 24:43
  a line there that you have to watch.
• 24:44
  So,
• 24:45
  I'm still,
• 24:46
  uh,
• 24:46
  I considered
• 24:47
  the,
• 24:47
  the,
• 24:47
  the few that I kind of considered there,
• 24:49
  Donald's,
• 24:50
  I was a little worried about.
• 24:51
  I think I'm still bullish there.
• 24:52
  I'm gonna stay,
• 24:53
  I like Florida.
• 24:54
  Um,
• 24:54
  because
• 24:55
  a lot of the underlying,
• 24:56
  um,
• 24:56
  mechanisms there,
• 24:57
  the,
• 24:58
  the big growth of Republicans there,
• 25:00
  the,
• 25:00
  um,
• 25:01
  the lack of the huge effect of some of these negative,
• 25:03
  um,
• 25:04
  uh,
• 25:05
  polls on Republican votes.
• 25:06
  Uh,
• 25:07
  so I like that one.
• 25:07
  There's some still some value there because I think he's in the 70s,
• 25:10
  uh,
• 25:10
  so that's an interesting one,
• 25:11
  but,
• 25:12
  um,
• 25:12
  and I added some,
• 25:13
  I,
• 25:13
  so I kind of trimmed a little bit on Kottek,
• 25:15
  trimmed a little bit on.
• 25:17
  Uh,
• 25:18
  Hyde Smith
• 25:19
  trimmed a little on hints and very little,
• 25:21
  6%,
• 25:22
  I think,
• 25:23
  on that one.
• 25:23
  So you can do that or not.
• 25:25
  Abbott,
• 25:25
  I did a little bit kind of with the hedge your life,
• 25:27
  uh,
• 25:27
  thoughts behind that.
• 25:29
  Paxton,
• 25:30
  and then,
• 25:30
  uh,
• 25:30
  I added some Pappas.
• 25:32
  I added some red wave no and some blue wave yes,
• 25:35
  which are
• 25:36
  kind of measures
• 25:37
  like,
• 25:37
  you know,
• 25:37
  red wave yes is like 55 Senate seats for the,
• 25:40
  uh,
• 25:41
  Republicans.
• 25:41
  I just don't,
• 25:42
  I don't think that's happening.
• 25:43
  Um,
• 25:44
  so that's where I am.
• 25:44
  I am in DEFCON level 3 though.
• 25:46
  That's a calm
• 25:48
  position
• 25:48
  to look ahead,
• 25:50
  to rework
• 25:51
  certain
• 25:52
  contracts that you're worried about.
• 25:54
  But it's OK to be focused on
• 25:56
  the good ones
• 25:57
  and to take the money that you might like,
• 26:00
  uh,
• 26:00
  take from the,
• 26:00
  uh,
• 26:01
  the losses.
• 26:01
  You might take a little bit of a loss,
• 26:02
  but take that currency out,
• 26:03
  move it into markets where you're more confident.
• 26:05
  So,
• 26:06
  uh,
• 26:06
  from the election,
• 26:07
  so just to run through those again,
• 26:08
  you got the,
• 26:09
  uh,
• 26:09
  uh,
• 26:10
  if you're just electoral for Republicans,
• 26:12
  I would be on the level 2,
• 26:14
  DEFCON 2.
• 26:15
  Prediction market positions,
• 26:16
  DEFCON 3.
• 26:17
  I think most of them are gonna be very,
• 26:19
  very valid.
• 26:19
  I'd say about 95% of the stuff that I looked at,
• 26:21
  I was totally fine with.
• 26:23
  A few I'm trimming
• 26:24
  and moving cause I wanna take advantage of other,
• 26:26
  uh,
• 26:26
  markets.
• 26:27
  And then,
• 26:27
  of course,
• 26:28
  the final one is,
• 26:29
  uh,
• 26:29
  if you are a Philadelphia Eagles fan,
• 26:30
  that would be DEFCON 1.
• 26:32
  it is,
• 26:33
  we are,
• 26:35
  we are beyond,
• 26:36
  I would say,
• 26:36
  is there a DEFCON 0?
• 26:38
  If there's a DEFCON 0,
• 26:40
  the Philadelphia Eagles are eating that one up
• 26:42
  right now.
• 26:43
  So,
• 26:43
  we can,
• 26:43
  uh,
• 26:43
  we can work about,
• 26:44
  we can work on that later.
• 26:45
  OK.
• 26:46
  It's a lot of stuff to take.
• 26:47
  I,
• 26:48
  I know I hit you with a lot of information there,
• 26:49
  but it's a big day.
• 26:50
  It's panic day.
• 26:51
  So I wanted to make sure you understood my process because look,
• 26:54
  I'm going to win some,
• 26:54
  I'm going to lose some.
• 26:55
  I wanna make sure you understand when I make a,
• 26:57
  uh,
• 26:57
  uh,
• 26:58
  uh,
• 26:58
  uh,
• 26:58
  um,
• 26:59
  a new pricing,
• 27:00
  uh,
• 27:00
  if I take a new pricing on something,
• 27:01
  if I take a new size on something,
• 27:02
  I want you to understand it
• 27:04
  so you don't think that like,
• 27:04
  oh,
• 27:05
  well,
• 27:05
  you said 3 months ago that this was a perfect position and then
• 27:08
  you,
• 27:08
  you,
• 27:08
  you bailed out on it.
• 27:09
  I,
• 27:10
  I,
• 27:10
  I changed these things.
• 27:11
  I do change them.
• 27:12
  This is,
• 27:12
  of course,
• 27:13
  an entertainment show.
• 27:13
  It's an information show.
• 27:14
  It's not investment advice,
• 27:15
  so don't be leaning on me for all that stuff.
• 27:17
  If you want every single thing that I have that's updated every single week,
• 27:20
  you can go to predictableShow.com
• 27:22
  and see it all laid out.
• 27:23
  There's over 300 positions there.
• 27:25
  You can check them out,
• 27:26
  see where I am on every single election,
• 27:28
  uh,
• 27:28
  and go from there.
• 27:29
  OK,
• 27:29
  that's what we're gonna have time for for this particular segment.
• 27:31
  I wanna come back on the other side
• 27:33
  with another,
• 27:33
  uh,
• 27:34
  situation that happened,
• 27:35
  uh,
• 27:35
  over the weekend
• 27:37
  with,
• 27:37
  uh,
• 27:37
  the new White House press secretary.
• 27:40
  We'll walk you through that next.
• 27:53
  Prediction.
• 27:54
  Yes,
• 27:54
  prediction.
• 27:58
  Pain.
• 28:06
  Ah,
• 28:06
  yes,
• 28:07
  it's time for another episode,
• 28:09
  the first actually,
• 28:10
  of Prediction Pain.
• 28:12
  And part of the promise of this particular program and company,
• 28:15
  PredictableShow.com as well,
• 28:18
  is that I'm not gonna just tell you about my wins.
• 28:20
  I will also tell you about my losses,
• 28:22
  and I will tell you about my thought process
• 28:24
  behind those losses.
• 28:25
  Why?
• 28:26
  Um,
• 28:26
  because I'm obviously a glutton for punishment,
• 28:28
  but also,
• 28:30
  Uh,
• 28:31
  I want you to know
• 28:32
  when I make the mistakes so that you can
• 28:34
  potentially learn from them and not make them yourself.
• 28:37
  Um,
• 28:37
  now,
• 28:37
  I'm happy about this particular one in one way,
• 28:40
  is that we were supposed to,
• 28:41
  we,
• 28:41
  I was scheduled to do a segment on it all week last week,
• 28:45
  and I,
• 28:46
  some,
• 28:46
  we just kept pushing it off because we ran out of time.
• 28:48
  I was running my mouth too much and we never did the segment,
• 28:51
  so I never actually told you to take this position or at least told you I was taking it,
• 28:55
  cause I,
• 28:55
  you know,
• 28:55
  I know some people will come on and take the same positions that I take occasionally.
• 29:00
  This has to do with Katie Zachariah.
• 29:02
  She's out as a White House press secretary after her first week on the job.
• 29:06
  Now,
• 29:06
  for a long time,
• 29:07
  I've known a few people who've,
• 29:08
  uh,
• 29:08
  you know,
• 29:09
  worked in Washington,
• 29:10
  worked even in the White House,
• 29:11
  and I've heard them talk about measuring time,
• 29:15
  uh,
• 29:15
  in,
• 29:16
  uh,
• 29:16
  in,
• 29:16
  in,
• 29:17
  in,
• 29:18
  uh,
• 29:18
  mooches.
• 29:20
  Um,
• 29:20
  that is,
• 29:20
  uh,
• 29:21
  and when you're like,
• 29:21
  what's that?
• 29:22
  Well,
• 29:22
  that was,
• 29:22
  uh,
• 29:23
  that was the mooch,
• 29:24
  the guy who was the,
• 29:25
  what was he,
• 29:25
  the head of communications for Trump
• 29:27
  for like 11 days.
• 29:29
  And it was like,
• 29:30
  OK,
• 29:30
  well,
• 29:30
  that was,
• 29:31
  he only lasted 5 mooches,
• 29:32
  right?
• 29:33
  This was half a mooch,
• 29:34
  less than half a mooch,
• 29:35
  5 days on the job,
• 29:37
  and Katie Zachariah
• 29:38
  is let go.
• 29:39
  She's transitioning.
• 29:40
  Um,
• 29:40
  out of the particular position.
• 29:42
  And you might say,
• 29:43
  well,
• 29:43
  wait a minute,
• 29:43
  you know,
• 29:44
  look,
• 29:44
  this is widely covered.
• 29:46
  People had,
• 29:46
  um,
• 29:47
  were talking a lot
• 29:48
  about whether she would last any given period of time,
• 29:52
  and most people said didn't seem like she's gonna last a long time.
• 29:55
  You know,
• 29:56
  it's one thing you can look at this and you can say,
• 29:57
  you,
• 29:57
  you watch her performance,
• 29:58
  everyone has a bad day.
• 29:59
  Everyone can have a bad day.
• 30:00
  Everyone can have a bad performance,
• 30:01
  but there's something about her performance that looked
• 30:04
  very uneasy.
• 30:05
  You know,
• 30:05
  someone who just didn't,
• 30:06
  did not look prepared for the job,
• 30:08
  did not look,
• 30:09
  it wasn't just,
• 30:09
  didn't look like normal nerves,
• 30:10
  it looked like someone who
• 30:12
  was a little bit out of her,
• 30:14
  uh,
• 30:15
  out of her depth,
• 30:16
  uh,
• 30:16
  when it came to that job.
• 30:17
  I will say this,
• 30:18
  it's a really freaking hard job,
• 30:20
  really hard job.
• 30:22
  And I will also say
• 30:24
  that the White House,
• 30:25
  um,
• 30:25
  and the,
• 30:26
  the people making the decisions in this particular situation
• 30:28
  didn't really do her a lot of favors here.
• 30:30
  You know,
• 30:31
  she,
• 30:31
  uh,
• 30:31
  you know,
• 30:32
  I,
• 30:32
  I,
• 30:33
  looking back at this,
• 30:33
  you have to say,
• 30:34
  well how was she even hired for this job?
• 30:36
  How was she pulled out of,
• 30:38
  I mean,
• 30:38
  a lot of people wanted this job.
• 30:39
  There were people who were kind of publicly advocating for it,
• 30:42
  who I think would have done a very good job.
• 30:43
  We have had no position
• 30:45
  on Scott Jennings taking the job,
• 30:47
  largely because
• 30:49
  I didn't think he'd want it.
• 30:50
  Scott Jennings,
• 30:51
  he's on CNN,
• 30:52
  he's got his own show,
• 30:53
  he's got a good life.
• 30:54
  This is a terrible life.
• 30:55
  The life of a White House press secretary is terrible.
• 30:58
  It's,
• 30:58
  it's just an awful position to be put in on a day to day basis.
• 31:01
  You're being screamed at and then called a liar and,
• 31:03
  and,
• 31:03
  and
• 31:03
  tortured on a day to day basis.
• 31:05
  It's a really hard job
• 31:07
  that is very specific for the type of person
• 31:09
  that can handle it.
• 31:10
  I think Jennings would do a great job with it,
• 31:11
  but I don't know why he'd take it.
• 31:13
  There was a rumor he was pushing for
• 31:15
  the job.
• 31:16
  If that was true,
• 31:17
  and he was not hired,
• 31:18
  that's insanity.
• 31:19
  Jennings would be really,
• 31:20
  really good at that job,
• 31:21
  uh,
• 31:22
  much,
• 31:22
  much better than,
• 31:23
  uh,
• 31:23
  than certainly Katie Zachariah turned out to be.
• 31:25
  Now,
• 31:26
  who knows what she would have turned into,
• 31:27
  maybe she would have grown into it,
• 31:28
  but
• 31:29
  it's totally unfair
• 31:31
  to put a person like that in that position the way that they did.
• 31:34
  They,
• 31:34
  they,
• 31:34
  they,
• 31:35
  uh,
• 31:35
  she got the job,
• 31:37
  um,
• 31:37
  they put her out there immediately,
• 31:39
  basically.
• 31:39
  They gave her one briefing in the morning and then threw her out in front of the press.
• 31:42
  It did not go well.
• 31:44
  She obviously was nervous,
• 31:45
  but it seemed like more than that.
• 31:46
  And,
• 31:47
  uh,
• 31:48
  everyone kind of knew that this was not gonna last long from the beginning.
• 31:52
  So you might say,
• 31:52
  how did I lose?
• 31:53
  How could I lose a position on that?
• 31:56
  My thought process at the time.
• 31:58
  Was uh to say,
• 32:02
  Yes,
• 32:02
  I think there's a chance that she will be out,
• 32:04
  uh,
• 32:04
  very,
• 32:05
  very soon.
• 32:06
  But why on earth would they do this
• 32:09
  before the election?
• 32:10
  There was a contract on the board.
• 32:12
  I think we have the markets up.
• 32:13
  Do we have this market up here,
• 32:14
  uh,
• 32:14
  Adam?
• 32:15
  No surprise as to where this resolved as they,
• 32:17
  uh,
• 32:17
  they,
• 32:17
  you know,
• 32:17
  she is out.
• 32:18
  If you scroll down,
• 32:19
  you'll see the options though.
• 32:20
  $2.8 million of volume in this market,
• 32:22
  um.
• 32:24
  And to see the various dates.
• 32:25
  The November 1st one I thought was interesting,
• 32:27
  and I had a no position.
• 32:29
  On will she be out
• 32:31
  by November 1st,
• 32:32
  and I think it was something like 15 or 20% uh to get.
• 32:35
  And my thought was,
• 32:37
  why
• 32:38
  on earth
• 32:40
  wouldn't you just hide her for a couple of weeks?
• 32:43
  If you really think she can't do this job,
• 32:44
  first of all,
• 32:45
  how the heck did she get the job in the first place?
• 32:46
  It's insanity.
• 32:47
  If you didn't think she could do it,
• 32:49
  and you saw that performance,
• 32:50
  it,
• 32:50
  I can't imagine she was that much different in the interviews.
• 32:53
  But let's say she was,
• 32:54
  and you're like,
• 32:54
  oh my gosh,
• 32:55
  she's out of her depth,
• 32:55
  we,
• 32:56
  we can't have her going,
• 32:57
  OK,
• 32:57
  fine.
• 32:59
  You say,
• 32:59
  hey,
• 33:00
  uh,
• 33:00
  you know what,
• 33:01
  uh,
• 33:02
  the moving truck never showed up and God forbid,
• 33:05
  she's not even here yet,
• 33:06
  and she's gotta take time.
• 33:07
  We're giving her time to transition and get up to speed on everything.
• 33:09
  It's gonna take a couple of weeks.
• 33:11
  You could work with her in that period and try to get
• 33:13
  her up to speed over the couple of weeks before the election.
• 33:16
  You could fill in with other people,
• 33:17
  other experts if you needed to do any briefings.
• 33:20
  And,
• 33:21
  you know,
• 33:21
  you,
• 33:21
  you went,
• 33:22
  you just went a month without anybody.
• 33:24
  1 month plus,
• 33:25
  I don't know how long it was.
• 33:26
  Just don't have anybody for a few weeks.
• 33:27
  Don't do any of these,
• 33:28
  uh,
• 33:29
  normal press conferences
• 33:30
  and,
• 33:31
  uh,
• 33:31
  string it out for 2 more weeks.
• 33:33
  Why would you insert another level of embarrassment right before this election?
• 33:37
  I don't know,
• 33:37
  and I would ask the same question of why you hired her right before the election.
• 33:41
  But,
• 33:41
  OK,
• 33:41
  you put her in there,
• 33:42
  it didn't work out,
• 33:43
  you're gonna get rid of her.
• 33:44
  Why would you increase
• 33:45
  the embarrassment factor by firing her 5 days after she
• 33:49
  took the job in the middle of the election,
• 33:51
  2 weeks before the election.
• 33:52
  Why wouldn't you just take her
• 33:54
  and hide her?
• 33:56
  Hide her for a couple of weeks,
• 33:57
  that's all you gotta do.
• 33:58
  All you gotta do is not give her any big jobs
• 34:01
  for the next couple of weeks in front of a camera.
• 34:03
  That is not that difficult.
• 34:04
  I know she's a press secretary,
• 34:05
  I know this is her job.
• 34:07
  But have her not do the job for 2 weeks,
• 34:09
  2 weeks.
• 34:10
  Uh,
• 34:10
  the next day after the election,
• 34:11
  you can do whatever you want.
• 34:13
  Now again,
• 34:13
  I'm talking in,
• 34:14
  in a,
• 34:14
  not as a,
• 34:15
  her as a person,
• 34:16
  which I'm sure it's gotta be an incredibly difficult time,
• 34:18
  and by the way,
• 34:19
  again,
• 34:20
  not entirely to her making.
• 34:22
  There is a report about,
• 34:23
  um,
• 34:24
  you know,
• 34:24
  because she did the bad press,
• 34:25
  uh,
• 34:26
  response,
• 34:26
  then went out and did a couple of interviews.
• 34:27
  Those didn't go well either.
• 34:29
  Uh,
• 34:29
  Katie Zachariah pushed for,
• 34:30
  uh,
• 34:31
  disastrous Fox News interviews
• 34:32
  that led to her ouster as press secretary.
• 34:35
  The,
• 34:35
  the,
• 34:35
  the reporting is that Trump actually was like kind of not
• 34:38
  nearly as negative on her first appearance as everybody else was.
• 34:41
  Um,
• 34:42
  there was a report of speculation that this was a
• 34:44
  sanctioned hit and that they put her on with Hannity,
• 34:47
  so that Hannity
• 34:48
  would ask her tough questions,
• 34:50
  make her look bad again,
• 34:51
  and they could push her out.
• 34:52
  I don't know that I buy that.
• 34:53
  In fact,
• 34:53
  this reporting kind of says the opposite.
• 34:55
  This,
• 34:55
  this,
• 34:56
  uh,
• 34:56
  reporting says that she was actually the one texting,
• 34:58
  asking for these interviews.
• 35:00
  And again,
• 35:01
  I understand that approach.
• 35:03
  But if you're the White House,
• 35:04
  you're in the middle of this election,
• 35:05
  you got a lot of things.
• 35:06
  The last thing you want is the conversation to be about some bad decision
• 35:10
  you just made,
• 35:12
  right before the election.
• 35:14
  Just hide her.
• 35:16
  Just say she's in the middle of taking in the upkeep,
• 35:18
  take the,
• 35:19
  the,
• 35:19
  uh,
• 35:19
  the take-up of the job.
• 35:21
  She's in the middle of learning everything.
• 35:22
  She's,
• 35:23
  she's gotta be,
• 35:24
  she's gotta figure out who her assistants are,
• 35:25
  she's hiring people,
• 35:26
  she's building stuff,
• 35:27
  whatever you gotta say.
• 35:29
  And then whenever that Wednesday comes up and too,
• 35:32
  too early,
• 35:33
  let's see,
• 35:33
  a little over 2 weeks from today,
• 35:35
  then you can let her go and whatever,
• 35:37
  maybe distracts from a bad election result or,
• 35:39
  you know,
• 35:40
  people are celebrating the good one and they don't care.
• 35:43
  Why would you do it now?
• 35:45
  Well,
• 35:45
  that's the position I took.
• 35:51
  I,
• 35:52
  as I said on,
• 35:52
  uh,
• 35:52
  Twitter,
• 35:53
  I have a position on no on the press secretary to be fired for
• 35:55
  the midterms because you could just easily hide her for a couple of weeks.
• 35:58
  So why embarrass yourself any further in the middle of
• 36:00
  an election when it's so easily avoidable and it's gone.
• 36:03
  All my money's gone.
• 36:05
  There it is from South Park and it's gone.
• 36:09
  That's from back from the uh financial crisis when
• 36:11
  you put money into your own account and you'd
• 36:13
  think you were growing it and then it would
• 36:14
  just be all completely gone with no explanation whatsoever.
• 36:17
  It's gone.
• 36:19
  So I lost.
• 36:20
  I felt the prediction pain.
• 36:22
  I got clubbbered
• 36:23
  in that situation.
• 36:24
  That's a new term.
• 36:24
  I want to start using that term.
• 36:25
  I got clubbbered.
• 36:27
  I got lubber langed,
• 36:28
  uh,
• 36:29
  and,
• 36:29
  uh,
• 36:30
  you know,
• 36:30
  you win some,
• 36:31
  you lose some.
• 36:31
  I gave back all my profits from my stupid Scott Jennings win.
• 36:35
  So,
• 36:36
  in case you lose and you think,
• 36:38
  gosh,
• 36:39
  why do I lose in prediction markets?
• 36:40
  Sometimes you do.
• 36:41
  You gotta make sure these things are sized correctly and appropriately,
• 36:45
  so you uh are gonna get good benefit out of it.
• 36:46
  But generally speaking,
• 36:48
  Uh,
• 36:48
  you do lose some.
• 36:49
  It's not all winners on prediction markets.
• 36:51
  Sometimes they're hard.
• 36:52
  We just try to stack the winners,
• 36:53
  gain those over time.
• 36:55
  Those fuel occasionally in a loss,
• 36:57
  but overall,
• 36:58
  you still get to be profitable.
• 36:59
  That's what we're aiming for here unpredictable with Stu.
• 37:01
  Trying to walk you through these elections because we've got so many more
• 37:04
  opportunities here in just a couple of weeks.
• 37:06
  15 days out from election day.
• 37:08
  Hopefully,
• 37:09
  no prediction pain will be felt
• 37:11
  on
• 37:11
  Tuesday,
• 37:12
  the 4th,
• 37:13
  is it the 4th?
• 37:15
  Is it November 4th?
• 37:16
  I can't remember.
• 37:16
  3rd or 4th,
• 37:17
  it's something like that.
• 37:18
  Whatever it is,
• 37:19
  uh,
• 37:19
  hopefully,
• 37:19
  we don't feel prediction pain on that day.
• 37:21
  I'll have more in a second.
• 37:36
  Well,
• 37:36
  as we all know,
• 37:37
  prediction markets are just gambling.
• 37:39
  That's what we hear from the media from a day to day basis,
• 37:42
  basically all the time.
• 37:43
  And that's fine.
• 37:45
  That is,
• 37:45
  uh,
• 37:46
  I have their opinions.
• 37:47
  I don't agree with them.
• 37:48
  And I wanna talk to you about,
• 37:49
  um,
• 37:49
  a couple of,
• 37:50
  every once in a while I like to bring up these examples as to
• 37:52
  different ways you can think about using prediction markets in your own life,
• 37:54
  in your own business.
• 37:56
  Um,
• 37:56
  an interesting thing here when it comes to,
• 37:58
  um,
• 37:59
  some
• 38:00
  bars and restaurants around Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles,
• 38:03
  some of them around Dodger Stadium.
• 38:05
  There's a group of restaurants,
• 38:05
  25 restaurants.
• 38:07
  And
• 38:08
  they looked at their future a little bit.
• 38:10
  Now,
• 38:10
  as you know,
• 38:11
  the Dodgers have,
• 38:12
  um,
• 38:13
  tragically won the last World Series against my Toronto Blue Jays,
• 38:16
  um,
• 38:16
  but,
• 38:16
  uh,
• 38:17
  have won a couple of World Series in a row.
• 38:19
  And,
• 38:19
  uh,
• 38:20
  when
• 38:21
  they're in the World Series,
• 38:22
  when they're playing those games,
• 38:24
  that's very good for the surrounding area,
• 38:26
  right?
• 38:26
  Makes a lot of sense,
• 38:27
  right?
• 38:28
  They,
• 38:28
  when people are coming to the stadium,
• 38:30
  people come to the bars,
• 38:31
  they come to the restaurants.
• 38:32
  When people are,
• 38:33
  when the Dodgers are in the World Series,
• 38:34
  people are packing the sports bars so they can watch the games on TV.
• 38:37
  And yeah,
• 38:38
  that means something for your Friday night or your Saturday night,
• 38:40
  but it also means something for these restaurants and bars.
• 38:43
  They're looking at this and saying,
• 38:44
  well,
• 38:44
  if the Dodgers make the World Series,
• 38:47
  we can count on multiple,
• 38:49
  you know,
• 38:49
  an extra night,
• 38:50
  certainly,
• 38:51
  um,
• 38:52
  you know,
• 38:53
  at least 4
• 38:54
  nights in another week or two
• 38:56
  of
• 38:57
  really big revenue,
• 38:58
  packed bars,
• 38:59
  packed,
• 39:00
  uh,
• 39:00
  restaurants,
• 39:01
  tons of revenue coming in our way.
• 39:04
  If they lose
• 39:06
  in the NLCS,
• 39:08
  well,
• 39:08
  then those people aren't coming,
• 39:10
  most likely,
• 39:11
  those games won't be happening,
• 39:12
  that revenue won't come to us.
• 39:14
  What can we do about that?
• 39:16
  Up until now,
• 39:18
  the answer to that has been nothing.
• 39:22
  Go Dodgers.
• 39:22
  That's basically been,
• 39:24
  uh,
• 39:24
  your,
• 39:25
  uh,
• 39:26
  way of handling that situation
• 39:28
  if you are,
• 39:29
  uh,
• 39:29
  in that area.
• 39:30
  And this goes for places all around the country.
• 39:32
  So what can you do instead?
• 39:34
  Now,
• 39:35
  with prediction markets,
• 39:36
  this happened with Calci,
• 39:37
  an LA restaurant group
• 39:38
  used $60,000
• 39:41
  against,
• 39:41
  and then they call it a,
• 39:42
  a bet.
• 39:43
  It's just gambling.
• 39:45
  Uh,
• 39:45
  to hedge their playoff risk,
• 39:47
  says Calci.
• 39:49
  So Kalihi,
• 39:49
  um,
• 39:50
  this,
• 39:50
  this bar group went in,
• 39:52
  got $60,000 of shares
• 39:54
  for the Dodgers
• 39:55
  to lose.
• 39:56
  When they did lose,
• 39:58
  they got paid.
• 39:59
  As if
• 40:01
  their,
• 40:01
  uh,
• 40:03
  uh,
• 40:04
  bars and restaurants were completely filled,
• 40:06
  except they didn't have to have all,
• 40:07
  they,
• 40:07
  they didn't have to do the work.
• 40:09
  They didn't have to sell the food,
• 40:10
  they didn't have to have people come in.
• 40:11
  Now,
• 40:11
  of course,
• 40:11
  I'm sure they would have liked that.
• 40:13
  They would have much rather have the Dodgers winning,
• 40:15
  likely,
• 40:15
  um,
• 40:16
  but
• 40:17
  because of this,
• 40:17
  they were able to essentially get the business that would have happened.
• 40:21
  If the Dodgers had won
• 40:22
  without the Dodgers winning.
• 40:24
  They were able to take a massive element of risk out of their business
• 40:28
  and instead
• 40:29
  become more profitable than they would have been otherwise.
• 40:33
  You can do that with your company.
• 40:35
  If you have a small business,
• 40:36
  uh,
• 40:36
  now again,
• 40:37
  you might not have a bar or a restaurant,
• 40:38
  you might not be as dependent on sports.
• 40:39
  Sports is,
• 40:40
  it's funny because they talk about sports with gambling all the time.
• 40:42
  It's just the easiest thing to understand.
• 40:44
  It's a lot harder,
• 40:45
  like,
• 40:45
  you know,
• 40:45
  there's air conditioning companies out there that are doing this with the weather,
• 40:49
  right?
• 40:50
  There are oil companies doing this with oil prices and
• 40:52
  things in like the Strait of Hormuz opening up,
• 40:55
  right?
• 40:55
  How else could they hedge that?
• 40:57
  Rich people have been hedging these things forever.
• 40:59
  Now,
• 40:59
  average people can do it too.
• 41:01
  Average business owners,
• 41:03
  regular people
• 41:04
  can get the same sort of effort out of that,
• 41:06
  and that's why
• 41:07
  these things are really,
• 41:08
  really effective and it's not just gambling.
• 41:09
  You can use it in crazy ways.
• 41:10
  You wanna use it,
• 41:11
  you wanna try to make it into gambling,
• 41:12
  you can try.
• 41:13
  But you can also use it in really responsible ways.
• 41:16
  You can use it as an investment and you can use it to hedge
• 41:19
  wins and losses
• 41:20
  in your business.
• 41:21
  Back in a second.
• 41:32
  All right,
• 41:32
  it's time for our candidate of the day.
• 41:35
  Our candidate countdown,
• 41:36
  15 days left.
• 41:37
  We try to do a candidate every single day where there might be some value
• 41:39
  or at least give us a lesson on how we should play these markets.
• 41:42
  Our candidate of the day today with 15 days remaining until election day is
• 41:46
  Ben Ray
• 41:47
  Lujan.
• 41:49
  Yeah,
• 41:49
  it's fun to say,
• 41:51
  and he's probably going to win.
• 41:52
  Ben Ray Lujan,
• 41:53
  he's a Democrat in New Mexico,
• 41:55
  and,
• 41:55
  um,
• 41:56
  the predictable midterm consensus is a consensus measure of all expert opinion,
• 42:00
  not my opinions,
• 42:01
  not the prediction markets themselves,
• 42:03
  but
• 42:03
  what are the experts saying?
• 42:04
  What are these election models saying?
• 42:05
  What are the prediction,
• 42:06
  uh,
• 42:06
  polling averages saying,
• 42:07
  all that stuff.
• 42:08
  Um,
• 42:08
  do we have New Mexico by any chance up here ready to go?
• 42:11
  Um,
• 42:11
  Adam,
• 42:11
  yeah,
• 42:12
  here it is,
• 42:12
  uh,
• 42:12
  the 98% chance to win.
• 42:14
  OK,
• 42:15
  so that is what,
• 42:16
  and I honestly think that might be slightly underpriced,
• 42:18
  98 to 2%.
• 42:20
  Um,
• 42:20
  now you,
• 42:20
  one of the reasons why,
• 42:22
  um,
• 42:22
  you know,
• 42:23
  Democrats usually win New Mexico.
• 42:26
  But,
• 42:27
  uh,
• 42:28
  it's even more than that.
• 42:29
  Um,
• 42:29
  the,
• 42:30
  uh,
• 42:30
  cash on hand,
• 42:31
  uh,
• 42:31
  recently,
• 42:32
  this is the end of the summer,
• 42:33
  but it was,
• 42:33
  uh,
• 42:33
  $4.4 million for Lujan and his opponent had $11,000.
• 42:38
  So
• 42:38
  it's a real,
• 42:39
  real difference here.
• 42:40
  Um,
• 42:41
  this is the prediction market and what it looks like right now,
• 42:42
  and you'll see it reflects basically the PMC.
• 42:44
  It is at 97.4%,
• 42:46
  which again,
• 42:47
  is probably underpriced.
• 42:48
  Uh,
• 42:48
  he's gonna win that race,
• 42:49
  and this is not the environment in which New Mexico is going to be competitive.
• 42:53
  We have seen those environments before.
• 42:54
  Um,
• 42:55
  you know,
• 42:55
  in 2024,
• 42:56
  there was a,
• 42:56
  a Senate race there,
• 42:58
  and it was only a 10 point margin.
• 43:01
  Is that competitive?
• 43:01
  Uh,
• 43:02
  not quite.
• 43:02
  It was 6 points in 2020 last time Lujan won.
• 43:05
  Um,
• 43:06
  it was a much closer race and a closer state,
• 43:08
  frankly,
• 43:08
  back in 2020,
• 43:10
  but it was a 6.1% margin,
• 43:12
  uh,
• 43:12
  then.
• 43:13
  Polling is,
• 43:14
  uh,
• 43:14
  double digits,
• 43:15
  uh,
• 43:15
  16 points,
• 43:16
  18 points,
• 43:17
  15 points the last three polls.
• 43:19
  So,
• 43:19
  again,
• 43:19
  Lujan's gonna win.
• 43:20
  You might say,
• 43:20
  well,
• 43:20
  there's no value there,
• 43:21
  Stu.
• 43:21
  Why are you even bringing this up?
• 43:22
  Because I wanna show you a different way to play those markets.
• 43:24
  Go back to the,
• 43:25
  uh,
• 43:25
  Calci market if we could,
• 43:26
  and scroll down to,
• 43:27
  uh,
• 43:27
  where we'll see a margin market.
• 43:29
  Um,
• 43:30
  down there a little bit more,
• 43:31
  a little bit more.
• 43:32
  There we go,
• 43:33
  Democratic margin of victory.
• 43:34
  And you'll see here,
• 43:35
  um,
• 43:36
  uh,
• 43:36
  open that up with show more.
• 43:38
  You'll see here,
• 43:39
  you can buy,
• 43:40
  uh,
• 43:40
  get more value in,
• 43:41
  in different markets as you go.
• 43:42
  Now,
• 43:43
  Lujan only won by 6 last time,
• 43:45
  but you can get,
• 43:46
  if you think he's gonna win by 9,
• 43:48
  1113,
• 43:49
  like 9 points,
• 43:50
  they say there's 85%.
• 43:52
  I think it's actually higher in the actual market.
• 43:54
  But you see,
• 43:55
  um,
• 43:55
  you can get some real values.
• 43:57
  Now,
• 43:57
  the problem with these markets are there's not a ton of liquidity there.
• 44:00
  These are things you gotta jump in late.
• 44:01
  A lot of times you jump in this like the day before,
• 44:03
  2 days before the election.
• 44:05
  And you'll see those start to fill up,
• 44:07
  more volume will get into those races.
• 44:09
  It's a secondary way to play out
• 44:11
  a heavy favorite.
• 44:12
  How much are they gonna win by?
• 44:14
  Because I,
• 44:15
  you know,
• 44:15
  I look at that market and I think he's probably gonna win in double digits.
• 44:18
  So you can look at some of those and say,
• 44:19
  OK,
• 44:19
  well,
• 44:20
  9,
• 44:20
  1113,
• 44:21
  where are those,
• 44:22
  where's that line for you,
• 44:22
  you're,
• 44:23
  where you're gonna look at some risk and you might be able to get a much better price
• 44:26
  if it is a big Democratic year,
• 44:28
  it can also help
• 44:29
  hedge or maybe a position that you have in another city,
• 44:32
  another state,
• 44:33
  um,
• 44:33
  where you have more Republican exposure.
• 44:36
  Again,
• 44:36
  we look at these things,
• 44:38
  we,
• 44:38
  you know,
• 44:38
  we talk about the 10th Amendment of the predictable
• 44:41
  Constitution often root for the world that you want,
• 44:43
  invest in the world that you have.
• 44:45
  And that is the most important one potentially.
• 44:47
  So,
• 44:47
  check that out,
• 44:48
  the predictable Constitution,
• 44:49
  by the way,
• 44:49
  up at predictableShow.com.
• 44:50
  Join us as a premium member there as well.
• 44:52
  Get everything for free and so much more.
• 44:54
  It's predictableShow.com.
• 44:56
  Thank you so much for joining us.