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NFL Trends with Evan Abrams · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the favorites presented by draft kings the crown
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: is yours we are an action network podcast i'm brandon
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: kravitz your host back at it with the first lady
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: of the pod kendra middleton and mr optimus primer himself
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: we're workshopping that one Evan Abrams is on with us today.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: We're getting trendy with Evan Abrams ahead.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Of the 2026 NFL season. Kendra, we start in your world,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: which is in a different part of the world. Where
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: have your Irish travels taken you in the last 48 hours?
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: I went to see ASAP Rocky and I ate.
• 0:46
  Speaker 4: Do you guys know what a coddle is?
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: Never heard of it.
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: It's like a potato leek soup. I had one of
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: those at Anthony Bourdain's favorite.
• 0:54
  Speaker 4: Restaurant over here.
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: Guess how much, just because Anthony Bourdain liked that place,
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: a bowl of soup was?
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: $ 18. I was going to guess exactly $ 18, so I'm
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: going to tack on a little bit, too. Let's go $ 22. 50.
• 1:13
  Speaker 4: $ 17 for a bowl of broth, fellas.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: I would have lost prices.
• 1:19
  Speaker 5: I would have lost prices. Right. But it's fair. I
• 1:21
  Speaker 5: was close.
• 1:22
  Speaker 4: Crazy. Crazy.
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: It was good.
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: Don't get me wrong, but like $ 17, I could have
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: bought all the ingredients to make.
• 1:28
  Speaker 5: How was it though? Like after you've eaten it good, bad.
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: It was good, but not $ 17.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: Good.
• 1:36
  Speaker 4: I think Anthony Bourdain would be rolling over in his grave.
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: If he knew that this place he liked was upcharging
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: the people just because.
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: He went there.
• 1:44
  Speaker 5: No soup for you.
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: No soup for me.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: What's the biggest difference culinary-wise between what you see regularly
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: on a menu in Ireland versus what you see here?
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: My guess is that it's cheese, because we put cheese
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: on everything.
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely cheese, because I was talking to the person
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: I went to get soup with today saying that if
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: this were America, there would be cheese on this soup.
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: Definitely cheese, and I would say... Unless you're going somewhere
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: really nice, seasoning. And I can taste there clearly are
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: no hormones in their chickens.
• 2:14
  Speaker 5: I feel like it's nice, though, that we've progressed in
• 2:17
  Speaker 5: America where we're offering more types of cheese. So it's
• 2:20
  Speaker 5: not just like we started with like, here, just take
• 2:22
  Speaker 5: the cheese. And now there's options, at least.
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I went to Chick-fil-A because there's one in Belfast.
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: And they only have one type of cheese that they
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: offer for your sandwiches there.
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: It's crazy.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: The goat cheese explosion, I think, has really helped our variety. Plus,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: a shout out to Pepper Jacks. So some quarterback news.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins officially named the starter for the Raiders. No
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: surprise there.
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: None.
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: Smooth transition.
• 2:48
  Speaker 5: Yeah, very smooth.
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: Speaking of cheesy.
• 2:51
  Speaker 5: Well, there's holes in that defense, so it's fine.
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Swiss Swiss cheese Raiders. Mendoza is going to be the
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: first starting quarterback drafted number one overall to not start
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: since starting week one. Since I stopped myself here because
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: I want to see if our trends guy knows this
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: is a little stop on the dime trivia for you, Evan.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Who's the last quarterback drafted number one overall to not
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: start in week one.
• 3:20
  Speaker 5: I don't actually have a guess. I don't think I
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: know the answer to this because I'm going back and
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: I feel like each one has started i don't think
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: it's recent uh.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Tell me i have a guess in the last it's
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: within the last 10 years um it is baker mayfield
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: baker baker.
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: I rod i would not have pulled that out of
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: my ass no.
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: I wouldn't have guessed baker i wouldn't have gotten back
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: that far.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: So i went back and looked at the 2018 schedule
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: for the browns mayfield came in three weeks into the
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: season but it's not because of a coaching decision it's
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: because tyra taylor got hurt and then they gave Mayfield
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: played well, and then they gave him the job thereafter.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: So my question for the panel here is going to be,
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: with that as the benchmark for the last time this
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: has happened, Mayfield was playing and starting.
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: By week four.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Would you take the over or the under on Mendoza
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: as the starting quarterback for the Raiders using that week
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: four line, Evan?
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: I'll let Kendra... I was going to let Kendra start.
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: I actually... So there's a line on 12.5 passing touchdowns
• 4:25
  Speaker 5: for Mendoza, which I think is an interesting line depending
• 4:28
  Speaker 5: on when you think he's going to enter the lineup.
• 4:30
  Speaker 5: And because there's the late bye, it makes it a
• 4:32
  Speaker 5: little bit difficult in terms of when you think. I
• 4:34
  Speaker 5: was thinking that Jets game might be an interesting opportunity,
• 4:38
  Speaker 5: or at least like a week or two before the bye,
• 4:41
  Speaker 5: so that you can get like a little bit of
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: work and then get an extra week to go over it, prep,
• 4:47
  Speaker 5: and get ready for post-bye. So maybe like a week 10, maybe.
• 4:51
  Speaker 5: would be my guess. I don't think the Raiders are
• 4:53
  Speaker 5: going to be good. So I don't think this is
• 4:54
  Speaker 5: going to be like, oh my God, we have to
• 4:55
  Speaker 5: make like a decision here. And I also think there's
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: a chance Kirk gets hurt. But aside from all those things,
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: I guess that area.
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: I'm going to take the over for two reasons.
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: One, either they're going to be doing well enough for
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: Kirk to be justified to continue to play. I don't
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: think that that's the most likely option, but I think
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: if they're bad, it's probably going to be about week
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: six that they start to hear from the fans.
• 5:21
  Speaker 5: I like that. I like the over 12 and a
• 5:23
  Speaker 5: half passing touchdowns. I think it's a good bet. I
• 5:25
  Speaker 5: think we see Mendoza. I don't think he's looked good
• 5:28
  Speaker 5: at all. He's got some serious happy feet going on,
• 5:31
  Speaker 5: which doesn't bode well, but I think he just needs reps.
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: That was going to be my question.
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: Do we think that he's actually going to be good?
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: Because I initially obviously have said on this show, I
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: thought that he was going to be okay. But after
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: watching some of the other guys in this class in
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: the preseason, I'm starting to think that he might be
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: on the lower end of it.
• 5:49
  Speaker 5: I mean, he's learning from greats. Like he's got a
• 5:51
  Speaker 5: lot of people in that building to help him out.
• 5:52
  Speaker 5: He just hasn't, like I said, the one thing I've
• 5:55
  Speaker 5: taken away from anything I've watched of him in the
• 5:57
  Speaker 5: preseason has just been a little bit quick, happy feet.
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: And listen, the line's supposed to be better there. I
• 6:03
  Speaker 5: don't remember if he played with the first line when
• 6:07
  Speaker 5: he was out there. There's a chance he didn't, which
• 6:08
  Speaker 5: obviously has an impact, but.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Not only is he not played with the first line,
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: I believe, I don't believe we've seen Linderbaum out there yet.
• 6:15
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: Rock Bowers didn't play either.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: So you're going to have happy feet when you're, you're
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: not even comfortable with the guys you're throwing the ball to,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: and it's not elite talent. And while you were getting
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: some backups with the Houston Texans and that game that
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: was on primetime, it's still Houston. Is that they're, they're
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: deep defensively. Um, I wouldn't take too much of it.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: I like the, to me, I look for how does
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: the ball look coming out of your hand? And I
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: think Fernando Mendoza has got that. There's that pop. And
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: that's where, if they, if it's a coaching decision and
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: not because cousins.
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: Ruptured another Achilles.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: It's going to be because there are plays to be
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: made down the field that cousins just isn't making. And
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: that'll be the reason that we end up seeing Fernando Mendoza.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: The other bit of quarterback news was that CJ Stroud
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: was offered a deal where he was going to be
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: paid $ 50 million a year. I have no idea what
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: the length of the contract offered was. Baker Mayfield was
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: offered 50 million a year. It was only for two years.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: That's the reason why he didn't want it. So you
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: see the sticker shock of this guy's turning down 50
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: million a year. Well, if he's not offered a long-term deal,
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: then in the world of quarterbacks, that's not a good
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: offer from the Houston Texans, but he's prepared to play
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: without a deal this season.
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: Kendra, is he overvaluing himself?
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely.
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: This is going to turn into like a Jimmy Garoppolo situation.
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: I think I just don't know who he thinks he is.
• 7:36
  Speaker 4: You were almost benched.
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: For a backup and a playoff game, and you think
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: that you're deserving of this, it has to be a
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: prove it year for him. And honestly, I hate the
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: Houston Texans for obvious reasons, but I'm going to say,
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: and you can clip this if you want good for
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: the fricking Houston Texans for telling him to sit down
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: and shut up.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Would you pay the man? I mean, I feel like
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: this is a win-win for the Houston Texans. They get
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: to say, Hey, look, we offered you money, but they
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: don't actually have to pay him. And he's like right
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: on the cusp of somebody you'd want to give a
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: big contract to mills mafia.
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: Yeah. I also think it was on the shorter side
• 8:10
  Speaker 5: in terms of years. It's a reason he doesn't take it.
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: Houston's going to be good. There is no way that
• 8:18
  Speaker 5: defense allows them to be on the bottom side of
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: the league. I think it's up to Stroud to just,
• 8:25
  Speaker 5: I'm not going to use the word game manager, but
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: just do your job and don't put the defense in
• 8:31
  Speaker 5: a situation where they can blow the game because they won't.
• 8:34
  Speaker 5: That's what we saw in the playoffs. He just needs
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: to be level-headed, and Houston's going to be good, and
• 8:39
  Speaker 5: he's going to get his money.
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: That sounded a lot like game manager, but it was
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: very nice of you to say.
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: You used the game manager, yeah.
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to say game manager. I'm just going
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: to perfectly describe a game manager.
• 8:49
  Speaker 5: Well, I mean, it's true, because there's no reason for
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: him to go and try to do too much, because
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: he's going to throw some picks, he's going to make
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: some bad mistakes, and it's just not what's needed when
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: you have that defense, so. We'll see what happens.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: And they should be able to run the ball better
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: this year with David Montgomery. We are about to dip
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: into the trends that will shape your betting life over
• 9:12
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• 10:00
  Speaker 1: I am a geek for Evan Abrams trends every week
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: throughout the year. I was guzzling these years before I
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: worked with action.
• 10:10
  Speaker 5: I wasn't going to say it, but we do, but
• 10:13
  Speaker 5: we do, but we do have, we do have Kendra
• 10:16
  Speaker 5: on the show for a specific purpose. And I feel
• 10:18
  Speaker 5: like we wouldn't be doing the job of Kendra on
• 10:21
  Speaker 5: the show if that didn't happen.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: I was in the middle of a masterful introduction.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: But because I said the.
• 10:28
  Speaker 5: Word guzzling Evan Abrams for years... I don't think you
• 10:32
  Speaker 5: should use the word masterful either. I think you should
• 10:34
  Speaker 5: just probably move on.
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: Masterfully guzzling Evan Abrams for how long, Kravitz?
• 10:39
  Speaker 5: Where was I?
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: Anyway, when did.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: When did it all start for you, Evan, before I
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: started guzzling your shit?
• 10:50
  Speaker 5: Where did it all start for me? Well, listen, I
• 10:52
  Speaker 5: was born in New York City. No, I mean, I've
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: been in action for like, I don't know, eight years.
• 10:58
  Speaker 5: What is it? Nine years, almost. Eight, nine years. So
• 11:02
  Speaker 5: I've been here a long time. I've done a lot
• 11:04
  Speaker 5: of different things, worn a lot of different hats. But
• 11:05
  Speaker 5: I've been doing like this job specifically. I mean, geez,
• 11:09
  Speaker 5: since I was like 19 or 20. But here for
• 11:12
  Speaker 5: the last, like, I don't know, seven years.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: But like, how did you become... How did you become
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: the trends guy? When did that, why did that, why
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: did that take hold?
• 11:22
  Speaker 5: Uh, I always felt like, so I always look at
• 11:25
  Speaker 5: this as kind of his wage attainment. Uh, like there
• 11:27
  Speaker 5: is no end all be all to, you know, you
• 11:29
  Speaker 5: need to bet this. And I think there's always like, uh,
• 11:31
  Speaker 5: important caveats with all this stuff that we do. Uh,
• 11:35
  Speaker 5: and also I think there's like an interesting line between
• 11:40
  Speaker 5: what's happened in the past is predictive of the future.
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: So I do think, you know, modeling and all sorts
• 11:44
  Speaker 5: of different things have a uh, better interaction probably with gambling.
• 11:49
  Speaker 5: But I started doing this because I thought it was
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: like really fun. I loved finding the stats. And at
• 11:55
  Speaker 5: the time pre PASPA, like nobody was doing these sports
• 12:00
  Speaker 5: gambling research and stats, uh, for the gambling side. Like
• 12:04
  Speaker 5: it was still extremely taboo. So I started keeping databases.
• 12:08
  Speaker 5: I started finding information. I started talking to like bookmakers.
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: We're talking about people, you know, in Vegas, like doing
• 12:15
  Speaker 5: things by hand, like there are lots of different companies
• 12:18
  Speaker 5: and people. And cause I got really interested in really early. Uh,
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: and since then I'm just obsessed. Like I find, I
• 12:25
  Speaker 5: love finding old spreads, old information, keeping databases and just
• 12:29
  Speaker 5: Tracking information in the sports and gambling space, because I
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: just feel like it hasn't been done correctly, uh, and
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: isn't widely spread enough at this point.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: So, um, I think it's really cool that you, that you,
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: even though this is your bread and butter, that you
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: still add the caveat of this.
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: Isn't the be all end all.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: I think when I first started looking at this stuff,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: I thought that it was the cake. And I didn't
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: realize until years later that it's the icing to the cake.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: You know, you still have to, you have to come
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: up with your own analysis, whether you're modeling a number
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: or using a market rating, whatever it is, there has
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: to be a baseline there that doesn't involve trends. But
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: when you see that you like a team and then, oh,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: by the way, like the chargers, we'll get into them
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: in a moment. Double digit favorites have not performed well
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: early on in the season. If you like the Cardinals
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: and then see that stat, That's icing on the cake.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: And I think that that's the way to consume it.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: And if you're, you know, in the guzzling world.
• 13:31
  Speaker 5: Yeah. Holland days, the Bernays it's, it's like a little
• 13:34
  Speaker 5: bit that that's how I kind of look at some
• 13:35
  Speaker 5: of this stuff.
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: What about the new stuff that's coming down the pipeline?
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: What do you have beyond what we have been taking
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: in for the last couple of years on action?
• 13:47
  Speaker 5: Sure. So for me personally, like I'll have my article, uh,
• 13:50
  Speaker 5: it's going to come out before like probably Monday, maybe
• 13:52
  Speaker 5: over the weekend. Uh, but the only thing that's going
• 13:54
  Speaker 5: to be different is it's going to be one link
• 13:55
  Speaker 5: all season. So you won't have to like be searching
• 13:58
  Speaker 5: for it. And that link will have like a tool
• 14:00
  Speaker 5: that will get updated with all my stats information. I'll
• 14:02
  Speaker 5: have some other fun stuff in there and things I'll
• 14:04
  Speaker 5: be like updating along throughout the year. Uh, and also
• 14:08
  Speaker 5: I have a few other things coming along. me and
• 14:10
  Speaker 5: Sean Kerner are going to do like a quarterback rankings piece.
• 14:14
  Speaker 5: That's going to have like every quarterback in the NFL,
• 14:16
  Speaker 5: their value to the spread versus their backup. It'll update
• 14:20
  Speaker 5: on certain things. I'll have injuries in there. It'll be fun.
• 14:22
  Speaker 5: And then me and Mr. Galant, Jill and I will
• 14:25
  Speaker 5: do a touchdown machine that I helped him build. Uh,
• 14:28
  Speaker 5: basically all the data last five seasons and all sorts
• 14:31
  Speaker 5: of fun things for current week touchdowns, previous touchdowns, be
• 14:35
  Speaker 5: able to do some research in it. Uh, Some of
• 14:38
  Speaker 5: this stuff is pro my piece as usual, always free.
• 14:41
  Speaker 5: I'll have some bet labs, some public betting stuff from action,
• 14:45
  Speaker 5: all sorts of fun stuff in there. So definitely check
• 14:47
  Speaker 5: it out. I'll post it on Twitter when I, when
• 14:49
  Speaker 5: I get a chance.
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: I like the touchdown machine.
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: Can I just say, if you are watching this as
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: a podcast, please go back to me saying pause and
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: look at Kravitz his face and how long it took
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: him to realize what had happened.
• 15:04
  Speaker 4: Because it was an embarrassingly long amount of time.
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: This wouldn't be the podcast it is if you both
• 15:09
  Speaker 5: were so cognizant of things. It wouldn't be as entertaining.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: I still think of the moment of the year for
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: me last year was Raiders. I think they were playing
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: the Broncos, but we had our parlay. I dipped into
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: the office to finish up some prep as the four
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: o'clock games were ending. And that's when Pete Carroll decided
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: to kick a field goal down by 10.
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: Oh my God.
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: Like no time left, which made no sense.
• 15:41
  Speaker 5: Pete's won Super Bowls. He's had so much success, but
• 15:44
  Speaker 5: in the eyes of gamblers, he may not be known
• 15:46
  Speaker 5: for anything more than just that play.
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: Oh my God. And I had no idea.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: And you guys told me that they covered the spread
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: while we were alive.
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: That one's still landing.
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: We got an early one this year.
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: That's a Hall of Famer.
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I appreciate that.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: Thank you guys for calling me out with my nonsense. Kendra,
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: they have a quarterback ranking. I'm thinking they're going to
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: put Justin Herbert in the top 20.
• 16:09
  Speaker 5: Well, they're wrong. Well, listen, I'll say this before we
• 16:14
  Speaker 5: move on. The quarterback ranking stuff has so much to
• 16:17
  Speaker 5: do with the backup. Anyone who does this stuff will
• 16:20
  Speaker 5: tell you that the backup has a ton to do
• 16:23
  Speaker 5: with how rated, properly rated the starter would be if
• 16:27
  Speaker 5: he got injured. So that just has a lot to
• 16:29
  Speaker 5: do with it.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you can't just look at what the
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: starter is worth. The problem is, and what I'm curious
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: to see what you guys come up with, is that
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: it's much harder to grade out and put an accurate
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: number towards the backup. But that's why you guys are
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: who you are. And we'll check that out when it
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: pops up on the app. What about the Super Bowl winner?
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl loser. We have them taking each other on.
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: In the first week of the season Patriots Seahawks, are
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: you a believer in the ideology that the winner has momentum?
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: The loser has a hangover. What are the numbers say
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: as it pertains to the first game that we're going
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: to witness of the season between Seattle and new England?
• 17:18
  Speaker 5: Uh, I mean, to me for that first game of
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: the year, I believe it's only happened. I think it's
• 17:25
  Speaker 5: the third time where you had the super bowl rematch
• 17:28
  Speaker 5: in that first game. not going to take much from that.
• 17:31
  Speaker 5: I do believe that the winner of the Superbowl has
• 17:37
  Speaker 5: won like nine of the last 10, I believe in
• 17:40
  Speaker 5: that first game. I think a lot of that is
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: obviously they're at home in that situation. They're usually, and
• 17:45
  Speaker 5: the thing that's interesting, they're usually giving them a pretty
• 17:47
  Speaker 5: good game in that first game, uh, which I think
• 17:51
  Speaker 5: is kind of intriguing in this one. I think it's
• 17:53
  Speaker 5: more about just looking at the two teams and doing
• 17:55
  Speaker 5: like a handicapped I'm not sure there's a serious trend
• 17:58
  Speaker 5: to be told here. The one thing I will say,
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: the loser of the Super Bowl has like struggled in
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: that first game. I believe it is six and 20
• 18:08
  Speaker 5: against the spread since 2000. I think that is the number.
• 18:13
  Speaker 5: So there is that note. I mean, me personally, when
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: looking at these teams, like from a handicapping standpoint, I
• 18:18
  Speaker 5: do kind of like New England in this spot, but
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: to be fair, I like New England in the Super
• 18:22
  Speaker 5: Bowl and I was wrong. So. There is that as well.
• 18:25
  Speaker 5: But that is the number behind that first game. But again,
• 18:29
  Speaker 5: usually not facing the team you just faced in the
• 18:31
  Speaker 5: Super Bowl. And there is, at least from a personal perspective,
• 18:35
  Speaker 5: usually more of a hangover type effect, I think, on
• 18:38
  Speaker 5: the team. And I don't know if I'm personally feeling
• 18:41
  Speaker 5: that with New England this year, but maybe there's also
• 18:43
  Speaker 5: other things going on in Foxborough kind of overshadowing that.
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: Do you know if there's any trends with the total
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: for this first game back between Super Bowl champions and
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: the person that they played in the Super Bowl? Just
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: because it feels like for me, first games, that first
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: week always can get a little bit wonky.
• 19:01
  Speaker 5: I haven't looked specifically at that first game. The only
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: thing I found when digging into the winners and losers
• 19:07
  Speaker 5: of the Super Bowl kind of early in the season
• 19:09
  Speaker 5: was Found it interesting that in the first three games,
• 19:12
  Speaker 5: the loser of the Super Bowl is like really trending under.
• 19:16
  Speaker 5: Believe since about 1978, where I have totals data, it's
• 19:20
  Speaker 5: like 83 and 58, which is high 50s in terms
• 19:24
  Speaker 5: of percentage. So maybe that's a bit of a lack
• 19:27
  Speaker 5: of offense from a losing Super Bowl team. But in
• 19:29
  Speaker 5: terms of like totals in general, just from that game,
• 19:32
  Speaker 5: it's a little noisy.
• 19:33
  Speaker 4: This might be a little bit off topic, but I
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: was talking about this.
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: I don't know if it was our last episode of
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: the episode before when we were talking about the Chiefs.
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: Do you think that there is something to be said
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: about teams who do play really deep into the playoffs
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: continuously and them having a drop off? Yeah.
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: I believe I've actually looked this up previously. And the
• 19:54
  Speaker 5: more games you play in the playoffs have like a
• 19:59
  Speaker 5: rolling year. So you talk about like five years, four years,
• 20:03
  Speaker 5: three years entering that specific season prior. you end up
• 20:08
  Speaker 5: like not covering as much throughout the season. So I
• 20:12
  Speaker 5: think there's like a season long effect. I think there,
• 20:16
  Speaker 5: but I also, the thing that makes it a little
• 20:18
  Speaker 5: bit difficult with that is that the lines usually are
• 20:21
  Speaker 5: inflated because those teams are usually well respected in the market.
• 20:25
  Speaker 5: So I think you're balancing which of those things are
• 20:29
  Speaker 5: kind of impacting it. But I do believe there is
• 20:31
  Speaker 5: that like downturn for teams that have had to play
• 20:35
  Speaker 5: extra games.
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm trying to think.
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: I just said this in our chat, but I'm trying
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: to think of maybe if there's a team that's been
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: really deep in the playoffs for the last couple of
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: years that might fall under that for us to fade,
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: but I'm struggling to come up with one.
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: I mean, you could look specifically at Buffalo and Baltimore. Yeah.
• 20:54
  Speaker 5: I think both of those teams would say they've played
• 20:57
  Speaker 5: enough games in the playoffs, gotten deep enough, but yeah.
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: So we're fading the Bills.
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: Yeah. I mean, personally, when we were, we, I did
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: the division pod a few days ago or a week ago.
• 21:10
  Speaker 5: I like the bills to make the wild card in
• 21:13
  Speaker 5: that division. Like, I think that's an interesting bet just
• 21:15
  Speaker 5: because I do see them obviously winning a crap ton
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: of games because they always do. I mean, they've only
• 21:22
  Speaker 5: gone under the wind total twice and I believe it
• 21:24
  Speaker 5: was both by a half wind. So like they're always
• 21:27
  Speaker 5: right there, but I do believe there is room this
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: year for new England. So yeah, I thought a wildcard
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: bet was interesting, and that leads to the fact that
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: maybe they'll be a little more respected than I think
• 21:38
  Speaker 5: they should be in the betting markets and maybe won't
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: cover as much as well.
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: I would think, too, that the extra games played, you've
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: got to really start to rack up games in order
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: for that to have an impact on your body to
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: that degree. If you play one or two extra playoff
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: games and you get an entire offseason and you're bringing
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: in new bodies through free agency and the draft, how
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: much impact could that really have? But if you're a team,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: I think it perfectly explains Kansas City. Kansas City's just
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: been running hard for years. And last year, he finally
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: smacked them upside the head. Let's talk about the curse
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: of the super team. There is no team catching more
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: steam in the market than the L.A.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: Rams. What is the history?
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: They went from plus 550 to 5-1 after Aaron Donald
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: rejoined the L.A.
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: Rams. What's the history of teams 5-1 or lower.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: To win the super bowl. Basically, what does history tell
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: us about the Rams being such a short shot this year?
• 22:35
  Speaker 5: Yeah. So I think there's a little caveat here as well.
• 22:37
  Speaker 5: I hate doing this, but like the Rams were plus
• 22:39
  Speaker 5: five 50 for a long time. Donald comes in there
• 22:42
  Speaker 5: five to one. And then all of a sudden this
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: stat is like everywhere feels like a little, you know,
• 22:48
  Speaker 5: like they were already the favorite, you know, this stat.
• 22:51
  Speaker 5: is what it is, but it is the numbers and
• 22:53
  Speaker 5: it is there. So I will repeat it. So last
• 22:55
  Speaker 5: 30 years, I looked at basically all the futures and
• 22:58
  Speaker 5: I've seen this on ESPN. I've seen this a lot
• 22:59
  Speaker 5: of different places. Everyone has a little bit of a
• 23:01
  Speaker 5: different number. I have 27 teams entering a season at
• 23:05
  Speaker 5: five to one odds or shorter. Last 30 years, none
• 23:09
  Speaker 5: of them have won the Super Bowl. So the last
• 23:12
  Speaker 5: one to do it, the last one to do it
• 23:14
  Speaker 5: would be the Cowboys in 1995. The one thing I
• 23:18
  Speaker 5: will say is this, if you look at all the
• 23:21
  Speaker 5: teams to win the Superbowl, obviously a few outliers. Like
• 23:25
  Speaker 5: I believe the Eagles were 40 to one. Like there
• 23:29
  Speaker 5: is a few teams you will see, you know, the
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: pop range, but most of them win in that like
• 23:34
  Speaker 5: six to one to 12 to one range. So usually
• 23:38
  Speaker 5: there isn't the long shot that comes through the door
• 23:41
  Speaker 5: and wins the Superbowl, but these teams that have really
• 23:43
  Speaker 5: gotten the plus two fifties, the plus three hundreds that
• 23:46
  Speaker 5: have entered the year with tons of expectations. I mean,
• 23:50
  Speaker 5: I believe, and I'll look at this list right now.
• 23:52
  Speaker 5: I think eight of them have made the Superbowl since 2000. Yes.
• 23:57
  Speaker 5: Since this, I believe this I'm looking at it right now. Oh,
• 24:00
  Speaker 5: eight since 96. So since the Cowboys won that in 95,
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: eight of them won the Superbowl and all lost in
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: the Superbowl. Uh, so it's not like these teams aren't
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: having a success because even eight of them made the game.
• 24:11
  Speaker 5: They're just not winning the Superbowl, which is super interesting
• 24:14
  Speaker 5: in itself. Um, The way I look at this is
• 24:19
  Speaker 5: it's just super, super difficult in this era with injuries
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: and so many other things to kind of get the
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: job done. But it's not like these teams aren't having success.
• 24:28
  Speaker 5: The thing that I think is fun is between 1991
• 24:30
  Speaker 5: and 1995, five of these teams made the Super Bowl
• 24:32
  Speaker 5: and three won it.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: So when did NFL free agency start? It wasn't in
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: the mid nineties.
• 24:41
  Speaker 5: Yeah, it was about that time. So I do think
• 24:43
  Speaker 5: some of that has to do with it, but it's
• 24:46
  Speaker 5: hard to sit here and say, you know, Oh my God,
• 24:49
  Speaker 5: these teams aren't doing well when eight are making the
• 24:51
  Speaker 5: super bowl. They're just not winning the game. So this
• 24:53
  Speaker 5: stat could be very different if four of those turned
• 24:56
  Speaker 5: around in one, but it is intriguing that it's been
• 24:59
  Speaker 5: a long, long time. since his team or the teams
• 25:02
  Speaker 5: have got it done. The other one is this. The
• 25:04
  Speaker 5: Rams didn't even make the Super Bowl last year, and
• 25:06
  Speaker 5: they had these expectations, which if you look back, first
• 25:09
  Speaker 5: of all, there hasn't been a team at 5-1 or
• 25:11
  Speaker 5: shorter to even close the season like that since the
• 25:14
  Speaker 5: Chiefs in 2021. And then you kind of look at
• 25:16
  Speaker 5: the list and you say to yourself, when was the
• 25:18
  Speaker 5: last time a team didn't make the Super Bowl the
• 25:21
  Speaker 5: year before and then had these expectations? Like you have
• 25:24
  Speaker 5: the Ravens in 2020. You had the Patriots, I believe,
• 25:29
  Speaker 5: It was 2017, I think, but it happens sometimes. But again,
• 25:33
  Speaker 5: stat holds true. So we will see what happens to
• 25:36
  Speaker 5: Stafford and company.
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: So if we're talking Super Bowl futures, which teams fit
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: the Evan Abrams bill of potential future bet?
• 25:46
  Speaker 5: So I would have to look at the odds very
• 25:48
  Speaker 5: quick right now, but mostly it would be the Seahawks, Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Chargers.
• 25:56
  Speaker 5: Like it's a normal season. If a team between like
• 26:01
  Speaker 5: six to one and 18 to one wins the Super
• 26:05
  Speaker 5: Bowl happens almost every year based off of just those spots.
• 26:09
  Speaker 5: This year, it's a little intriguing because the Rams are
• 26:12
  Speaker 5: five to one and the next second choice of the
• 26:14
  Speaker 5: bills at 10 to one. So you really don't have
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: like usually have two or three teams and like that
• 26:19
  Speaker 5: seven to nine range. and we can't really pick a
• 26:22
  Speaker 5: favorite this early, but this year we can. But any
• 26:26
  Speaker 5: of those teams would be a normal market year. You
• 26:29
  Speaker 5: have the Niners at 17-1, the Broncos, the Lions, all
• 26:32
  Speaker 5: those teams under 20-1. 20-1 or higher, you start to
• 26:35
  Speaker 5: get to some outliers.
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: Does that drop-off tell you anything?
• 26:41
  Speaker 5: I don't know if it tells me anything other than
• 26:43
  Speaker 5: just the expectations for the Rams are so ridiculous. Just
• 26:46
  Speaker 5: because they were so good last year and a few
• 26:48
  Speaker 5: bounces go a few ways, they're in the Super Bowl,
• 26:50
  Speaker 5: maybe they win it all last year. And that's what
• 26:52
  Speaker 5: you just keep hearing from everyone. So when some team,
• 26:55
  Speaker 5: at least recently, with recent markets since legalization, when a
• 27:00
  Speaker 5: team is like five to one or four to one,
• 27:02
  Speaker 5: you won't see another team usually in that six, seven,
• 27:06
  Speaker 5: eight to one range. It's just about what the odds
• 27:08
  Speaker 5: have to be in the market. So It's kind of
• 27:10
  Speaker 5: just the reason why Buffalo is at nine or 10
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: to one.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: And to cap this, would you, your suggestion for anybody
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: out there that just keeps staring at that Rams number saying,
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: I don't see this team losing.
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: You would not bet this right now, right?
• 27:24
  Speaker 5: I would not, not right now. Like I would be
• 27:26
  Speaker 5: utterly shocked and listen, I took the Patriots in the Superbowl.
• 27:30
  Speaker 5: We've all been wrong before. I'd be utterly shocked if
• 27:32
  Speaker 5: that number went five to one and never got higher again.
• 27:37
  Speaker 5: Like there's just all sorts of different things that can
• 27:41
  Speaker 5: get in the way and there's injuries and there's, it's
• 27:44
  Speaker 5: a long, long season. And also you're talking to the
• 27:47
  Speaker 5: wrong guy. I'm just not the guy to invest in
• 27:52
  Speaker 5: the Rams now at five to one. And even if
• 27:54
  Speaker 5: I'm wrong, and they win the Super Bowl, I will
• 27:57
  Speaker 5: not look back at this point and say I made
• 27:58
  Speaker 5: the wrong choice.
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: But that's just me.
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: I don't think you're going to find a lot of
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: sharp bettors right now screaming at the top of their lungs,
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: you got to bet the Rams to win the Super Bowl.
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: No, because Matt Stafford is old as fuck, dude.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: And I think if you needed a reason to fade them,
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: like what this stat to me is so valuable that.
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: It's, I've been fading them.
• 28:19
  Speaker 5: It's historically not accurate. But this time last year, he
• 28:21
  Speaker 5: was also, this time last year, he was in like a, a,
• 28:24
  Speaker 5: a Barrett, a Barrett chamber, like outside the Rams facility.
• 28:28
  Speaker 5: We were talking about back pro like things happen in,
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: in this season. Like there is a situation where there's
• 28:34
  Speaker 5: another quarterback on the Rams and like the Rams look different.
• 28:38
  Speaker 5: And I would say, okay, they're worthy of a four
• 28:40
  Speaker 5: to one or a five to one. I just don't
• 28:42
  Speaker 5: see it.
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: And numbers do change.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: Uh, even if they're along, I had the Falcons that
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: I had given out in the off season at 75
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: to one and thought, even if this doesn't come home,
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: there's no way I'm going to lose value on this.
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: You started by guzzling the Falcons.
• 29:00
  Speaker 5: It always comes back to Atlanta with this podcast.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: I just wanted to call myself out here because the
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: odds have nearly doubled on Atlanta.
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: He mentions the Falcons more than I talk about the Jags.
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: Let it be down.
• 29:14
  Speaker 5: The NFC South and AFC South are like the premium division.
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: Can I get a little bit of credit here? I'm
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: calling myself out, okay? This isn't me telling people you
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: need to go and do this. I'm telling you.
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: Do you want a forehead kiss and a glass of
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: hot milk?
• 29:28
  Speaker 5: We didn't need to hear you get called out to
• 29:31
  Speaker 5: talk about Atlanta again, but I love you.
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: Let's see what else we're guzzling on this episode today.
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: Let's move to the Patriots.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: I know we already touched on them, but that was
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: for a week one early season. Look, they're an interesting
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: test case this season for the jump that they had
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: from 2024. They won four games to 2025. They won
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: 14 of 14 games. What happens in that third season?
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: If this has happened in the past. what historically, what
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: does that tell us as far as a jump up
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: and then do they fall back down?
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: What are we looking at?
• 30:06
  Speaker 5: I mean, the 10 win thing just doesn't happen. It's
• 30:08
  Speaker 5: happened once. Uh, so, I mean, the test case for
• 30:11
  Speaker 5: the Patriots, uh, is ridiculous. And that's why they were
• 30:15
  Speaker 5: the story of last season, especially with the odds. And,
• 30:17
  Speaker 5: you know, if they would have won the Superbowl last year,
• 30:20
  Speaker 5: it would have been a complete outlier. I mean, I,
• 30:21
  Speaker 5: if I remember correctly, it was like 60 to one.
• 30:23
  Speaker 5: I mean, they would have, They would have taken the
• 30:25
  Speaker 5: cake back to like the Rams in 01 and two,
• 30:27
  Speaker 5: you know, things of that nature, Rams Patriots. So the
• 30:31
  Speaker 5: other team to do it was 2007, 2008 Dolphins. They
• 30:34
  Speaker 5: went from one win to 11 wins. They ended up
• 30:37
  Speaker 5: pushing the next year. It's one team. I'm not trying
• 30:39
  Speaker 5: to take anything from that. I don't think there is
• 30:42
  Speaker 5: anything to take from that. I think the Patriots, at
• 30:45
  Speaker 5: least on their own, have to be looked at individually
• 30:49
  Speaker 5: because I think they've just added a ton to the roster.
• 30:52
  Speaker 5: Like I do like, the Romeo Dobbs, the A.J. Brown.
• 30:56
  Speaker 5: I think they've gotten better. So I just think there's
• 30:59
  Speaker 5: a different way to look at it. But when you
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: look overall, the 10-win jump, yeah, I mean, it's something
• 31:05
  Speaker 5: we just haven't seen. And the other thing that's crazy
• 31:07
  Speaker 5: is going over by that many wins that season as well.
• 31:11
  Speaker 5: You saw the Broncos do it, but Denver's done it
• 31:13
  Speaker 5: in back-to-back years, which is also kind of a unique case.
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: This isn't really a statistics question, but obviously the Patriots have.
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: A ton of distractions.
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: Christian Gonzalez's camp coming out yesterday saying that if they
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: don't have a deal done before the season, they're done
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: trying to work through one. Does that change anything for
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: you when handicapping the Patriots? Because obviously you're not going
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: to get that top version of Christian Gonzalez if he
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: doesn't have a contract. because he's not going to want to,
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: you know, go out there and play to the top
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: of his ability or push himself too hard when trying
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: to find a new contract. So what does, does that
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: change anything for you as far as value on this team?
• 31:51
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's just a probability thing. Like it's just,
• 31:53
  Speaker 5: if you're trying to project them for the season, you,
• 31:55
  Speaker 5: you go and look at his contract, you look at
• 31:57
  Speaker 5: the situation, you read the news and you say to yourself, okay,
• 32:00
  Speaker 5: like if everything was well and good and you had
• 32:02
  Speaker 5: a hundred percent Christian Gonzalez all season long, well, what
• 32:05
  Speaker 5: is he now? Like we, you just have to project
• 32:08
  Speaker 5: out what you think you're going to get from him.
• 32:10
  Speaker 5: And is he going to play all 17 games? You know, okay.
• 32:13
  Speaker 5: Maybe he does get traded or maybe something does crazy,
• 32:16
  Speaker 5: crazy happen. Maybe you can only project him for like
• 32:19
  Speaker 5: 11 games in a Patriot uniform this year, because, you know,
• 32:22
  Speaker 5: I just think it's all about, at least from like
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: a season long win total. perspective of them like you're
• 32:29
  Speaker 5: not necessarily just looking at seattle in week one i
• 32:32
  Speaker 5: think you just need to project what you think he's
• 32:34
  Speaker 5: going to play for them and i think you could
• 32:36
  Speaker 5: be more optimistic or more pessimistic based off of the
• 32:39
  Speaker 5: news and what you know and even talking to a
• 32:40
  Speaker 5: person like yourself who's in the media there and is
• 32:43
  Speaker 5: talking to the people like it's just about what you
• 32:45
  Speaker 5: know and how you know like he is a top
• 32:47
  Speaker 5: top top corner so if he is going to be
• 32:49
  Speaker 5: there and you think he's going to be there for
• 32:50
  Speaker 5: all 17 games it just goes with my theory more
• 32:53
  Speaker 5: but i do understand uh your uh your stop with
• 32:58
  Speaker 5: him and the things that have happened there and what
• 33:00
  Speaker 5: could happen. So I think it's difficult, but me personally,
• 33:03
  Speaker 5: I have to believe that, you know, he's probably probability
• 33:08
  Speaker 5: projected at like 75% of games at this point. Like,
• 33:12
  Speaker 5: I don't think it's going to stop something, stop him
• 33:15
  Speaker 5: from being there, but I do think it's something you
• 33:17
  Speaker 5: need to be alert about.
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: On that front, a quick aside, because Evan and I
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: are in disagreement already. First game of the season. I
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: like the Seahawks minus three and a half. Is Christian Gonzalez,
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: is it possible that he doesn't play in this game?
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Is that a discussion up in your parts, Kendra?
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: I haven't heard anything about him not playing.
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: I'm under the assumption that this deal will get done
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: before the season starts.
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: It's not a money issue.
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: It's apparently like a language issue with the contracts, but
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: it seems like both sides are a bit disgruntled, but
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: there's just If you want to keep good faith with
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: Drake May, yes, you have to sign him. But if
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: you don't want there to be any conversation or media
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: buzz or just crap going on when it comes to that,
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: I think they have to get it done.
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: Also, Evan, did I miss, did I miss this?
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: As I see it in the notes that the last
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: time this happened, it was the Miami dolphins. The last
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: time we saw a team jump 10 wins a year
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: over a year.
• 34:15
  Speaker 5: Was 07, 08.
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: I believe that was.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: And do you remember the identity of, Of that Miami
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: dolphins team that won 11 games that year, they had
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: a specific trait to them.
• 34:27
  Speaker 5: Was it the, was it the Ronnie Ronnie and Ricky?
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: Yes, it was the wildcat dolphins. And that was also
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: the year that Tom Brady went down. So talk about
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: a unique circumstance where you invent you, you basically, you
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: took this old offense from the twenties in a year
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: where the best quarterback in the NFL wasn't healthy in
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: your division for the first time and only time. And
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: so it makes sense that there was a bit of
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: a jump. And then, and then they slid back down
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: to earth. Let's talk about the teams that were cashing
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: tickets last year. Do teams who performed well against the
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: spread the year prior tend to roll that over? I
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: would think just gut feel and betting that that sort
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: of thing corrects itself rather quickly that you get immediate regression.
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: You know, we think of our Jacksonville Jaguars were one
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: of the best spread covers last year. And then what
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: about the opposite end for teams that struggled to cover
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: the spread? Did they then bounce back strong? Is there anything,
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: were you able to find anything on that?
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: Usually what you see is this, and this is kind
• 35:30
  Speaker 5: of the only thing the data usually spits out when
• 35:33
  Speaker 5: looking at this stuff. Teams who cover at the top
• 35:37
  Speaker 5: rate the year prior usually bend down a tiny bit,
• 35:42
  Speaker 5: but it's more or the less of, Usually you don't
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: see teams at the top do better than like 12
• 35:48
  Speaker 5: and five against the spread. Those teams average about 10
• 35:53
  Speaker 5: or so covers the year prior, if not a little
• 35:56
  Speaker 5: bit less, because usually they're just back around 500. Usually
• 36:01
  Speaker 5: it's about two win difference on average is what I've seen,
• 36:06
  Speaker 5: especially if you look kind of recently. And it kind
• 36:09
  Speaker 5: of works the same for the teams at the bottom
• 36:11
  Speaker 5: as well. But mostly it's, It's kind of an individual
• 36:16
  Speaker 5: thing year to year. Cover percentage is very difficult to
• 36:19
  Speaker 5: just project because it kind of depends on the line
• 36:22
  Speaker 5: and there's just so much change year to year. But
• 36:25
  Speaker 5: I will say the teams, like the real outliers, like
• 36:29
  Speaker 5: you said, do tend to have some upward projectory or
• 36:33
  Speaker 5: some regression. It really just depends. It's not blanketed, unfortunately.
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I do think that it's something that you can
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: definitely look at at least and say, okay, who was
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: absolutely crushing expectation last year and who fell way short
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: of it? Uh, it's, it's just one of those things
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: you can kind of just store in your mind before
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: you overvalue somebody in the following season.
• 36:54
  Speaker 5: Usually there's more in actually the cover margin than there
• 36:57
  Speaker 5: is the actual results in itself, which is obviously more
• 37:00
  Speaker 5: difficult to find. And when you're researching and it makes
• 37:04
  Speaker 5: it more difficult to quantify, I guess, without having the data.
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: But usually it's the higher cover margins. Because if you
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: think about it, like you can cover by like a
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: half a point versus covering by like eight points. So
• 37:14
  Speaker 5: the margin usually tells the story more if you're trying
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: to find upward trajectory or regression.
• 37:21
  Speaker 4: We're now officially on the heels of week one.
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: I'm starting to kind of get into the weeds of
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: my official bets for the week. Am I wrong in
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: feeling like or remembering that dogs feel like they cover
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: pretty significantly in week one? Just because I think it's
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: probably it has a lot to do with so much
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: time to prepare. It's the healthiest everybody's going to be.
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: Am I wrong in wanting to be on a lot
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: of dogs in week one?
• 37:45
  Speaker 5: I can quickly look this up as we're sitting here,
• 37:48
  Speaker 5: but I believe the bigger dogs and the home dogs,
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: especially in division, have been the better bets when you're
• 37:56
  Speaker 5: talking about week one. If you're trying to pinpoint certain underdogs,
• 38:00
  Speaker 5: because it's not like you're probably going to be betting
• 38:02
  Speaker 5: 16 games or something like that, or at least probably
• 38:05
  Speaker 5: not the way you should be attacking it. the other angle.
• 38:08
  Speaker 5: And I, I believe, and I'll have this in my
• 38:10
  Speaker 5: article when I bring it out as well, but I
• 38:12
  Speaker 5: believe it's the teams and this gets a little bit
• 38:15
  Speaker 5: into the weeds, but historically it's like teams who don't
• 38:17
  Speaker 5: make the playoffs per year prior versus teams who do, uh,
• 38:21
  Speaker 5: those teams who are underdogs in week one tend to
• 38:23
  Speaker 5: find success. So there is like some slivers of the
• 38:27
  Speaker 5: pie that kind of give you a better, let's just
• 38:31
  Speaker 5: call them angles, trends, however you want to say it
• 38:33
  Speaker 5: in week one. Um, But if you're just looking blanketed,
• 38:36
  Speaker 5: like over the years, if you just look at underdogs,
• 38:39
  Speaker 5: let's see. So last year, eight and eight before that
• 38:43
  Speaker 5: seven to nine, 10 and six. So usually about 500,
• 38:46
  Speaker 5: but they do. It is a decent, like since 2021,
• 38:49
  Speaker 5: it's 10 games above 500 blanketed in terms of underdogs.
• 38:53
  Speaker 5: It's just like a 7% return on investment. So not terrible.
• 38:57
  Speaker 5: And if you even go back to pretty strong, look
• 39:00
  Speaker 5: like since 2016, 87 and 70. 7% ROI over the
• 39:06
  Speaker 5: last decade. So that's just blanketed underdogs in week one.
• 39:10
  Speaker 5: Not a bad look. I'm sure if I looked at Moneyline,
• 39:14
  Speaker 5: you might even find a sharper trend there with obviously
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: less wins, but a higher return on your investment.
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: And I think we have a lot of arrows pointing
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: to one game in particular that's coming to mind that
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: is going to be one of the most heavily bet
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: games of week one. because it's primetime is the Broncos
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: and the Chiefs. The Broncos are plus two and a
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: half in that game. Divisional underdogs, the numbers, the trends
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: would point towards the Denver Broncos. The Chiefs over the
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: last couple of years, I see this in the notes
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: as well. Not a good spread covering team. I've certainly
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: been fading them game to game a lot over the
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: last couple of years. However, that's with my homes as
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: a bigger favorite because he's typically overvalued. That's not the
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: case here. So my homes as a short favorite, the
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: chiefs overall, and the Broncos as a road divisional underdog,
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: we have a lot of arrows pointing in different directions
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: and you're going to see people use this in whichever
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: way suits their bet.
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: I would think.
• 40:13
  Speaker 5: Yeah, there, there's a lot of ways to kind of
• 40:15
  Speaker 5: slice this pie up, especially because they play each other
• 40:17
  Speaker 5: so often. I will say in terms of your total bets, uh,
• 40:21
  Speaker 5: point there on the game right now, it's about fifth
• 40:27
  Speaker 5: or fourth. If you look in total bets, if you
• 40:30
  Speaker 5: just look at the Sunday games. So by the time
• 40:32
  Speaker 5: we actually get to that Monday game, it is going
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: to have a ton of bets. So this one right
• 40:37
  Speaker 5: now is getting a lot of action. We're seeing like 56%
• 40:40
  Speaker 5: of the tickets, at least on action on Denver, which
• 40:43
  Speaker 5: is intriguing. So people kind of liking the points there. Uh,
• 40:46
  Speaker 5: to talk about the stat and to put some numbers
• 40:48
  Speaker 5: behind it. So Mahomes in his career, minus three or
• 40:52
  Speaker 5: less or an underdog. He is 30, 13, and one
• 40:56
  Speaker 5: against the spread. Though last year, two and three against
• 40:59
  Speaker 5: the number, which would be his first year under 500
• 41:02
  Speaker 5: in this spot for his career. So up until that point,
• 41:06
  Speaker 5: you would have said, you know, great trend, great situation,
• 41:09
  Speaker 5: always take Mahomes. Last year didn't work out so much.
• 41:13
  Speaker 5: It is interesting enough that this would be the fourth
• 41:16
  Speaker 5: time he's closed minus three or shorter or a dog
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: in week one. Obviously last year we saw the exact
• 41:22
  Speaker 5: same spot. He lost to the chargers and he's beaten
• 41:24
  Speaker 5: the Ravens and the chargers. prior to that. So to me, again,
• 41:29
  Speaker 5: I mean, this was a different Chiefs team. This Chiefs
• 41:32
  Speaker 5: team now, I feel like has been rebuilt for the
• 41:34
  Speaker 5: fourth time potentially. So it's a little bit difficult to
• 41:38
  Speaker 5: look at, like, am I using the Tyreek Hill numbers?
• 41:40
  Speaker 5: Like those numbers feel like just a different situation, even
• 41:43
  Speaker 5: though the 30 and 13 does feel all squeaky clean
• 41:46
  Speaker 5: and nice. This one should be just, it's a different matchup.
• 41:50
  Speaker 5: The one thing I will say, People keep talking about
• 41:52
  Speaker 5: the close game stuff. Really difficult to project, right? Last year, 1-9.
• 41:57
  Speaker 5: The year before, 11-0. What do we actually think we're
• 42:01
  Speaker 5: going to be getting from Kansas City? Just difficult. I
• 42:06
  Speaker 5: will say the one thing before we move on here.
• 42:08
  Speaker 5: Them going 6-11 against the spread last year. They've been under.
• 42:13
  Speaker 5: 500 five of the last six years since 2020. They
• 42:16
  Speaker 5: are the fourth worst ATS team since 2020. Jets, Falcons, Titans.
• 42:22
  Speaker 5: and then the chiefs. So their lines have just been inflated.
• 42:27
  Speaker 5: And I think now you might see the lines be tighter,
• 42:31
  Speaker 5: which would give them a little more value, but that
• 42:33
  Speaker 5: is just me projecting forward a little bit.
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: And I would buy into that theory wholeheartedly because it
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: does feel like a good time to buy low on
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: the chiefs, but they're still favored to win the division and.
• 42:44
  Speaker 5: They're favored in week one.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: And it's just like, yeah, are they yes in theory
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: they should be the buy low stock right now but
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: they're not so i can't buy the chiefs but in
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: theory you should be able to okay let's wrap before
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: we get to our plant the flag bet gotta ask
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: about these public percentages how has the public been doing
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: in recent years i know it's kind of fluctuated i
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: believe the last couple of seasons.
• 43:10
  Speaker 5: Yeah uh Let's just talk this preseason for a second
• 43:12
  Speaker 5: because I just think it's fun. So far, public has
• 43:15
  Speaker 5: had a fun preseason. 30-17-1. Now, when I say public,
• 43:19
  Speaker 5: what I mean is I'm blanketly looking at 51% of
• 43:23
  Speaker 5: tickets or higher according to Action Network data. So basically,
• 43:27
  Speaker 5: every game falls in public on one side, opposite on
• 43:30
  Speaker 5: the other. 30-17-1. And the absurd stat from preseason, I
• 43:34
  Speaker 5: love this one. Popular underdog. So When you had 51%
• 43:37
  Speaker 5: tickets or higher and the team was a dog, they
• 43:40
  Speaker 5: went 19-3-1 in the preseason, which is absolutely ridiculous. But
• 43:45
  Speaker 5: if you just look, regular season, last five years, it
• 43:48
  Speaker 5: has fluctuated. Last year, 47%. The two years prior to that,
• 43:53
  Speaker 5: 51-5 and 54.7. That was the first time in a
• 43:58
  Speaker 5: long time that we had back-to-back years where the public
• 44:01
  Speaker 5: was against over 500. Didn't happen last year. So we
• 44:04
  Speaker 5: will see what happens there. Usually not very predictable when
• 44:08
  Speaker 5: you look year to year, but it was interesting that
• 44:11
  Speaker 5: the trend dipped down. It was about 4% dip from
• 44:15
  Speaker 5: 24 to 25. So we'll see what happens and we
• 44:17
  Speaker 5: can update it week to week here.
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: Over time, you are probably going to lose if you
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: bet with the public. That would be my long-term stance
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: on this. By the way, just got a note. Michael Wilson,
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: three-year extension with the Arizona Cardinals.
• 44:35
  Speaker 5: So Those are my Arizona Cardinals.
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: I think we're a Cardinals podcast this year. I think
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: there are new P words. Them and the Raiders.
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: I think the Cardinals might be our birds of the year.
• 44:47
  Speaker 4: I think that they are the birds of the year.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: Is it too late to sell my Falcon stock? Okay,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: we're tired of me saying Falcons. Let's plant the flag
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: on one. Final future bet before we get to week one.
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: Presented by DraftKings where the crown.
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: Of course, is yours.
• 45:05
  Speaker 5: Plant the flag, get it set up. I'm trying to
• 45:08
  Speaker 5: plant my flag here, okay?
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: You really planted your flag in that thing? Kendra, get
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: us started.
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: I chose this because I don't think I've given it
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: out on the podcast yet because I got to the
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: window on it last week after we.
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: Talked about it.
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: I'm on the Raiders over five and a half this season.
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: I think no matter who is their quarterback, this team's
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: gotten a lot better and the ceiling for them is
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: a lot higher. I know that there are some question
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: marks for them on defense, but after the 53-man roster
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: came out, I have expectations for this team and that's
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: something that I haven't had in quite some time.
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: I think they've made some good moves. They've had some
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: good drafts. Getting Max Crosby... back without him actually leaving.
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: So I don't know if I can say back is
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: such a, like a needle mover for me, for this team.
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: I'm all over the Raiders this year. I really think
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: that they are going to finally take a leap.
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: You got them back. They got them back.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: Like I get a boomerang back. If I throw it out,
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: just kind of whips back around at you, Evan, what
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: about you?
• 46:00
  Speaker 5: Uh, it's funny. Cause my one bet I was considering
• 46:03
  Speaker 5: was the jets to have more wins in the Raiders,
• 46:06
  Speaker 5: but I decided against that for a multitude of different reasons,
• 46:09
  Speaker 5: but I see Kendrick does like the Raiders. So I
• 46:12
  Speaker 5: am going to go a different direction. I saw this
• 46:15
  Speaker 5: bet and I took it on the divisional podcast. I
• 46:18
  Speaker 5: was on a few a week or so ago. I'm
• 46:20
  Speaker 5: going to bet it again. I like the Cardinals to
• 46:23
  Speaker 5: have more wins than the Dolphins. I saw it at
• 46:26
  Speaker 5: plus 140. You say plus 140. That price is sitting
• 46:31
  Speaker 5: there because of the division, because of Miami's division and
• 46:35
  Speaker 5: who they'd have to face, even though I will say,
• 46:38
  Speaker 5: you know, New England, Buffalo, not the easiest. And obviously
• 46:42
  Speaker 5: the Cardinals division, difficult. But I like Arizona. More wins
• 46:45
  Speaker 5: than Miami. The one thing I will say, Miami faced
• 46:47
  Speaker 5: an average opponent of almost 100-1 last year in terms
• 46:51
  Speaker 5: of the Super Bowl odds they face of all the
• 46:53
  Speaker 5: opponents all year. That was the fourth easiest mark. This
• 46:56
  Speaker 5: year it's about 57-1, which is the second hardest. So
• 46:59
  Speaker 5: that is a large, large difference year to year. I
• 47:02
  Speaker 5: will take Arizona to have more wins than Miami.
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: Can we put that on the action app for the
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: people to jump on as a pod bet?
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: Because I would like to collectively do this because I agree.
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: Birds of the year.
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, no pushback. The only issue with Arizona is their division,
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: but there's such a better outfit than what the Miami
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: Dolphins are at this point. And they both have really
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: tough schedules. Forecasted win totals for your opponent. Those are
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: the two hardest schedules in the NFL. Pretty sinister stuff.
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: from Goodell and company to have the two worst teams
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: in the league, potentially, uh.
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: With schedule even matter anymore, because it seems like the
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: people who didn't win their division got absolutely screwed.
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, because the division winners last year were weird.
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: That's why.
• 47:49
  Speaker 5: Yeah. But some of the fourth place schedules are nice.
• 47:52
  Speaker 5: Like didn't the, who was it? It was the lions, right?
• 47:55
  Speaker 5: That finished fourth in the NFC North. Uh, they got
• 47:57
  Speaker 5: a pretty good, they got a pretty good schedule.
• 48:00
  Speaker 4: Cat of the year other than the Jags. Maybe even
• 48:03
  Speaker 4: better than the Jags this year. I got to be honest.
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: They're the cat of the year.
• 48:05
  Speaker 5: Simba of the year.
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: We might need to isolate for our first week one episode.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: Just sort of like nominate our animals for each team
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. Mine is going to be Lamar Jackson
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: over 599 and a half rushing yards. He has smashed
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: this every season, but one, it was last year. He's
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: got a new OC. He's ranked 69th is the number.
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: Nice.
• 48:31
  Speaker 4: I knew it.
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: I was going to say 69, but I didn't want
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: you guys to think that I was just.
• 48:35
  Speaker 4: Trying to make a 69 joke.
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: I swear to God, because I did a whole thing
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: about it on my other show.
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: And I was, I guess I was, I was being,
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: you know, more PC with.
• 48:45
  Speaker 5: My, I haven't actually looked, you know, it is week one, uh,
• 48:47
  Speaker 5: rushing yards, uh, prop is.
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: I don't, but I can, I can, I'm sure that
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: I can find that quickly.
• 48:54
  Speaker 5: I'm just curious because like, there's, that's an interesting fact
• 48:56
  Speaker 5: because there was so much conversation about his lack of
• 48:59
  Speaker 5: running last year. And obviously with a completely different system,
• 49:02
  Speaker 5: you assume, you know, fully healthy. He just looked like
• 49:05
  Speaker 5: a different player without the motor. But I would be
• 49:08
  Speaker 5: curious how the market's going to like project him.
• 49:11
  Speaker 4: And he doesn't poop himself usually until December.
• 49:14
  Speaker 5: Fair.
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: Does anybody want to take it?
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: Let's, let's do uh one one final guess from the
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: panel here for lamar jackson's rushing yard total in week
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: one against indianapolis.
• 49:25
  Speaker 5: Oh my god uh it's.
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: Way lower than i would have guessed if i was
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: oh i was gonna say like i was gonna say
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: like 61 and.
• 49:32
  Speaker 4: A half 50 40 40 it's 37 what He's healthy.
• 49:40
  Speaker 5: I know.
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, there must be something that I'm missing as
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: far as the type of offense that Declan Doyle wants.
• 49:47
  Speaker 5: But that 37 tells you why that number is where
• 49:50
  Speaker 5: it is for a full season.
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: I was thinking I was on the opposite end. I
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: thought you were going to say it was like way higher.
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: What's crazy, though, is that there's no way.
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: First of all, I hate to be that guy, but
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: I bet this a couple of weeks ago is 575
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: and a half.
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: It's now 599 and a half. There's no way.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: That this closes south of 600. I still think that
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: there's value on this. He has passed this number in
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: seven of his eight seasons and it's not even close.
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: And what's crazy about that is that in some of
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: these seasons, he's only played 12 games. I love having
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: that sort of cushion where the pushback for Lamar is
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: going to be well health.
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: Even when he's not healthy, he still hits the over
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: on this. That's the sort of cushion that you're getting.
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: You'd have to have a season ending injury in the
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: middle of the year in order for this not to
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: come home. Or all of a sudden the best rushing
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: quarterback I've ever seen in my life decides not to run.
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: And I just refuse to believe that that's going to happen.
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Drop. We're dropping the mic on that one.
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: Now he's guzzling Lamar guys.
• 50:54
  Speaker 5: To be fair, 40 times 17 is like six 80.
• 50:56
  Speaker 5: I mean, people can do math on their own, but
• 50:58
  Speaker 5: like it's, it's, it's in line. It's, it's, It should
• 51:01
  Speaker 5: be interesting. I hope I remember that season long back
• 51:04
  Speaker 5: because I want to track it.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: Don't you be bringing math on this podcast.
• 51:08
  Speaker 4: We should add that into our AI generator.
• 51:11
  Speaker 5: There you go.
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: Kendra's on the Raiders over five and a half wins.
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: I like Lamar Jackson over 599 and a half rushing yards.
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: And Evan likes the Arizona Cardinals. Our birds with more
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: wins than the Miami Dolphins at plus 140. Why should
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: you place these bets at DraftKings? Because all DraftKings customers
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: are getting a profit boost every game day in the
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: month of September. And that is why the crown is yours.
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: The favorites will return next week. Week one preview.
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: We did it.
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: And you can catch it right here on the Action
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: Network YouTube page. Give yourselves a round of applause out there.
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: Our show has been presented by DraftKings Seahawks Patriots.
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: Here we come. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.